Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Thursday 14 May 2026
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Featured

"Ratioed" - James Burdass' Comment to Rt Hon Rachel Reeves on LinkedIn

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Macro

Notes from Virtual Miami: Stripping the Corporate Polish off BHP’s Growth Strategy

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Iran’s FM Araghchi Says Hormuz Open to Commercial Ships if They Cooperate

12:36 (IST) May 14

Iran’s FM Araghchi says Hormuz open to commercial ships if they cooperate

12:21 (IST) May 14

Iran war news: External affairs minister Jaishankar raises Hormuz security, Gaza ceasefire at BRICS foreign ministers’ meet

India’s External affairs minister S Jaishankar highlighted concerns over the Strait of Hormuz and the war in Gaza while addressing the BRICS foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi, attended by Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi.

“We meet at a time of considerable flux in international relations, ongoing conflicts, economic uncertainties,” Jaishankar said in his opening remarks.

Addressing tensions in West Asia, Jaishankar stressed the importance of “safe, unimpeded maritime flows” through the Strait of Hormuz, calling it crucial for global economic security, according to Reuters.

He also underlined the need for a sustained ceasefire in Gaza and greater humanitarian access as the conflict in the Palestinian enclave continues.


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-iran-war-ceasefire-news-live-updates-donald-trump-iran-us-peace-proposal-strait-of-hormuz-blockade-middle-east-conflict-tehran-latest-news/liveblog/131053511.cms#:~:text=The%20United%20Kingdom%20Maritime%20Trade%20Operations%20(UKMTO)%20Centre%20says%20it,%3A21%20(IST)%20May%2014

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Trump in China » A Military Band in Beijing

KENT COVINGTON, NEWS ANCHOR: » Trump in China » A military band in Beijing … part of a red carpet welcome for President Trump last night — or this morning, local time. That marked the start of Trump’s two-day visit to China … 

XI: [Speaking Mandarin]

… where leader Xi Jinping welcomed Trump inside the Great Hall of the People. 

President Trump called Xi a friend … and had kind words for the Chinese leader.

TRUMP:  And we're going to have a fantastic future together. I have such respect for China, the job you've done. Uh, you're a great leader. I say it to everybody, you're a great leader.

Their high-profile summit is expected to focus on trade but also include the Iran war, technology and Taiwan. 

Trump hopes to iron out differences and increase China's import of American agricultural products and passenger planes. Though, most analysts are not expecting major breakthroughs.


https://wng.org/podcasts/the-world-and-everything-in-it-may-14-2026-1778699697

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Oil and Gas

US Wants Russian Energy Giants Gone From Global Markets, Moscow Says

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused the United States of attempting to force Russian companies out of global markets, including in Africa and the Balkans, in an interview with Russian state-controlled outlet RT India published on May 13.

"Efforts are being made to push Lukoil and Rosneft out of the global, including African, markets," Lavrov said. "The same applies to the Balkan markets, where our companies also operated."

"The goal — and no one is trying to hide it — is to make these companies leave international business altogether," he added. "They also want... to take control of the transit gas pipeline running from Russia to Europe across Ukraine in order to control these flows as well."

The U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, on Oct. 22, aiming to pressure the Kremlin into agreeing to a ceasefire in Ukraine.

The measures froze all U.S.-based assets of those companies. They also pave the way for secondary sanctions against foreign institutions that handle transactions with those on the blacklist.

The remarks come as Moscow continues to promote the prospect of large-scale economic cooperation with Washington even as negotiations to end Russia's war against Ukraine remain stalled.

Russia's chief diplomat accused U.S. President Donald Trump of continuing policies introduced under former President Joe Biden despite publicly distancing himself from the war.

"President Trump has repeatedly argued that Ukraine was Joe Biden's war, not his," Lavrov said. "Aside from this regular dialogue — which is normal in relations between people and countries — everything else follows the pattern initiated by President Biden."

The comments reflect growing frustration in Moscow over Washington linking economic cooperation and sanctions relief to progress in peace negotiations with Ukraine.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on March 27 that tying broader U.S.-Russia economic relations to the outcome of negotiations harms both Russian and American interests.

Russian economic envoy Kirill Dmitriev, who has participated in talks with Trump's envoys, has repeatedly promoted the idea of major joint economic projects between Moscow and Washington.

Earlier, Dmitriev claimed that lifting sanctions could unlock more than $14 trillion worth of joint U.S.-Russia projects, including in energy, mining, and nuclear sectors.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in February that Ukrainian intelligence had briefed him on what he described as a roughly $12 trillion framework for potential U.S.-Russia economic cooperation.


https://kyivindependent.com/us-wants-russian-energy-giants-gone-from-global-markets-moscow-says/

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Russia’s Oil Export Revenue Saw Continued Growth in April, IEA Says


Russia’s oil export revenues climbed for a second consecutive month in April, as a temporary U.S. sanctions waiver and the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to reshape global energy flows, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. 

According to the IEA’s monthly market report, Russia’s revenue from crude and petroleum shipments rose to $19.18 billion in April, a modest increase of $180 million from the $19 billion recorded in March. 

However, in annualized terms, total revenues for April were up by a staggering $6.28 billion compared to the same month in 2025. 

That revenue growth occurred despite a significant drop in production caused in part by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and oil infrastructure. Russia’s total oil output fell by 460,000 barrels per day compared to a year ago, averaging 8.8 million bpd in April. 

Total oil and petroleum product exports also saw a marginal monthly dip in April, falling by 90,000 bpd to an average of 7.03 million bpd.

At the same time, refined petroleum product exports plunged to 2.15 million bpd last month due to a gasoline export embargo and reduced refinery throughput. The IEA said it was the lowest level on record. 

“[R]epeated attacks on [Russia’s] refineries have cut domestic use and led to higher shipments, while the United States temporarily waived sanctions on Russian oil on water,” the agency said in its monthly report. 

Ukraine has stepped up its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure over the past three months in a bid to deprive the Kremlin of energy windfalls amid the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 

Russia has accused Ukraine of exacerbating the global energy crisis with its continued attacks on oil export hubs. 

Industry sources told Reuters this week that one of the refineries recently attacked, a Lukoil-operated facility in the Perm region, had completely halted processing on May 7. 

The sources said repair work may take several weeks. The refinery processed around 250,000 barrels of oil per day in 2024, according to Reuters.


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/05/13/russias-oil-export-revenue-saw-continued-growth-in-april-iea-says-a92745

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Chinese Oil Tanker Exits Strait of Hormuz, Stops at Gulf of Oman, Data Shows

SINGAPORE (May 13): A Chinese supertanker carrying two million barrels of Iraqi crude sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday after being stranded in the Gulf for more than two months due to the US-Iran war, LSEG and Kpler ship-tracking data showed.

The Very Large Crude Carrier Yuan Hua Hu is now anchored off the Gulf of Oman, near where the U Navy has set up a blockade on Iranian vessels, LSEG data showed.

The crossing comes as US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are due to meet over the next two days, and after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi visited Beijing last week.

The voyage marks the third known passage by a Chinese oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, based on ship-tracking data.

Iran has appeared to tighten its control over the strait in recent days, cutting deals with Iraq and Pakistan to ship oil and liquefied natural gas from the region, according to sources with knowledge of the matter.

Other countries are exploring similar deals, sources said, in a move that could help entrench Tehran's control of the waterway.

The Chinese VLCC is owned and operated by COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation's Hainan unit and chartered by Unipec, the trading arm of Chinese state oil major Sinopec.

COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and Sinopec did not immediately respond to requests for comments.

The Yuan Hua Hu loaded nearly 2 million barrels of Basrah Medium crude at Iraq's Basrah terminal in early March and has remained stranded inside the Gulf until now, according to the tracking data. It is bound for Asia.

Chinese-flagged VLCCs Cospearl Lake and He Rong Hai exited the Strait of Hormuz on April 11.

A vehicle carrier, Xiang Jiang Kou, also sailed through the strait in the past 12 hours and broadcast a message on its AIS public transponder saying "Chinese vessel and crew", according to satellite analysis from data analytics specialists SynMax and separate data on the MarineTraffic platform. The vessel was operated by Singapore registered group Xin Yin Chuang Yuan 6 Tiajin.


http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/node/803473

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Agriculture

Dutch Food Industry Warns Grocery Prices Could Rise Further Without Government Action

Grocery shopping

Dutch food producers are calling on the government to take action to prevent supermarket prices from becoming too expensive for consumers. According to the Federation of the Dutch Food Industry (FNLI), groceries are likely to become more costly in the months ahead as transport and energy expenses continue to climb rapidly.

The FNLI is warning about an accumulation of national taxes and levies on top of rising international costs. “Proposed measures such as a sugar tax, an excise duty increase on alcoholic beverages, and an additional levy on packaging are being added to existing charges, including the consumption tax on non-alcoholic drinks. Combined with increasing regulatory pressure, this raises the burden on companies and could result in higher prices in shops,” the industry organisation said.

The food industry is calling on the Dutch government to take measures to ease costs, restore competitiveness, and safeguard production in the Netherlands. “Ensure stable and competitive energy prices, among other things, and avoid introducing additional national levies on electricity, gas, or packaging. Especially now, it is important to implement policies that contribute to stability in the supply chain and keep choices affordable for consumers. New measures should also be carefully assessed for effectiveness, feasibility, and affordability,” the FNLI said.

According to the organisation, international disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East are affecting the entire supply chain. “Higher and more volatile costs for energy, logistics, packaging, and raw materials are piling up. Although the causes originate outside the Netherlands, the consequences are being felt here directly: in factories, during transport, and ultimately in shops.”


https://nltimes.nl/2026/05/13/dutch-food-industry-warns-grocery-prices-rise-without-government-action

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Precious Metals

Equinox, Orla Combine to Form $18.5B Gold Miner

Equinox Gold (TSX:EQX)(NYSE: EQX) said on Wednesday it would acquire Orla Mining (TSX: OLA)(NYSE: ORLA) in a deal valued at about $18.5 billion, creating a North America-focused gold producer expected to generate 1.1 million ounces annually.

Existing Equinox shareholders will own about 67% of the combined company, while Orla shareholders will hold the remaining 33%, the companies said Wednesday. The merged miner will operate mines in Canada, the US, Mexico and Nicaragua, including Orla’s Musselwhite mine in Ontario and Equinox’s Greenstone and Valentine mines in Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. The transaction is expected to close in the third quarter.

Equinox shares closed at C$20.28 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Tuesday, while Orla shares closed at C$19.77.

“Today is an incredibly exciting day for both Equinox and Orla shareholders as we announce a business combination that creates a senior North American gold producer with increased scale, high-quality long-life assets, and one of the strongest organic growth pipelines in the sector,” Equinox CEO Darren Hall said in a statement. “By combining our operating teams, financial strength, and complementary asset bases, we are creating a differentiated North American gold producer with the scale, growth profile, and asset quality to drive a meaningful re-rate and deliver long-term value for shareholders.”

“Orla was built on a simple idea: Acquire the right assets, develop them with discipline, and operate them well,” Orla CEO Jason Simpson said. “Together, we have the production base, the balance sheet, and the team to compete at a level otherwise unattainable by either company on its own.”

Major output growth

Hall will remain chief executive of the combined company, while Orla CEO Jason Simpson will become president. The companies said the merged entity could increase annual gold production by about 70% to 1.9 million ounces through its development pipeline, positioning it among the larger gold producers focused on stable mining jurisdictions in North America.

The deal continues a wave of consolidation among gold miners seeking scale, lower operating risk and stronger balance sheets as bullion prices remain near record highs.


https://www.canadianminingjournal.com/news/equinox-orla-combine-to-form-18-5b-gold-miner/

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Base Metals

Great Southern Copper Begins Drilling at Artemisa North


Drilling includes four planned holes aimed at exploring a phyllic alteration system. Credit: Parilov/Shutterstock.com.

Great Southern Copper has commenced scout reverse circulation (RC) drilling at the Artemisa North porphyry copper target within the Especularita Project in Chile.

Recent drilling at the nearby Piedras Blancas site has confirmed a strong porphyry copper-style alteration system.

At Artemisa North, drilling includes four planned holes aimed at exploring a phyllic alteration system and testing beneath historical copper workings.

Rock chip geochemistry has recorded grades up to 1.21% copper, alongside 0.6 grams per tonne gold and 201 parts per million molybdenum traces.

The system remains open under shallow cover to the north and east, with no previous drilling conducted.

The location offers access to infrastructure, lying along the trend of major copper deposits such as Los Pelambres, Altar and El Pachon.

Great Southern Copper possesses the rights to 100% of the target.

The Piedras Blancas site saw the completion of four scout RC holes totalling 574m.

These holes intersected strong phyllic alteration, with deeper transitions into potassic alteration containing sulphide mineralisation.

This evidence suggests that a porphyry copper setting exists at shallower depths than previously anticipated, increasing the prospectivity of the La Colorada lithocap.

All samples have been dispatched to ALS Laboratories for analysis.

The Artemisa North prospect is located 1.5km south of Piedras Blancas on the western margin of the La Colorada lithocap.

This area serves as the primary porphyry copper target within the company’s flagship Especularita project.

Future steps at Especularita include expanding drilling to the Artemisa South and Victoria prospects to continue exploring porphyry-related mineralisation.

Additional projects involve conducting geophysical surveys at Cerro Negro and the La Colorada lithocap, which are expected to start in May 2026.

Great Southern Copper CEO Sam Garrett said: “Artemisa North is the second of four targets to be tested with scout RC drilling in the current porphyry exploration programme.

“This programme is focusing on targets on the western margin of the La Colorada lithocap that display geological, geochemical and spectral features that are characteristic of porphyry copper systems.

“In particular, we aim to confirm that large-footprint zones of leached and oxidised quartz-sericite-pyrite alteration mapped at surface may represent the “phyllic” alteration zone enveloping a copper-gold porphyry system.”


https://www.mining-technology.com/news/great-southern-copper-begins-drilling-artemisa-north/

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Aluminium Bahrain Sales Fall 17% in War-Disrupted Q1

Alba's net finished aluminium production was down 14% to 339,734 tons in the first three months of the year

LONDON - Aluminium Bahrain, known as Alba, said on Tuesday its sales volumes fell by 17% year on ⁠year in the first quarter to 312,563 metric ‌tons as the war in the Middle East from the end of February disrupted shipping routes.

Alba's net finished aluminium production was down 14% to 339,734 tons in the first three months of the year, with the company deciding to shut 19% of capacity in mid-March ⁠due to closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Days later, the company's smelter was targeted by an Iranian attack at the end of the month.

* Alba, with annual smelting capacity of 1.6 million ‌tons per year, ⁠said in an ⁠earnings release it continues to closely monitor inventory levels as it looks to optimise use of raw material alumina.

* ‌The company is deploying diversified sourcing ⁠strategies and flexible logistics to maintain operations, it said, using "multiple regional ports" and "multimodal transport routes" for imports of raw materials and exports of metal.

* Alba said in March it was routing up to 60% of its aluminium exports via the Saudi port of Jeddah.

* The company also said on Tuesday it signed a share purchase agreement on May ‌6 to acquire European smelter Aluminium Dunkerque, having ⁠announced talks to buy out the current owner, U.S. fund AIP, on March 2.

* Despite the drop in volumes, Alba's net profit rose by 316% year on year to 75.3 ‌million Bahraini dinars ($199.7 million), buoyed by higher aluminium ⁠prices.

($1 = 0.3771 Bahraini dinars)

(Reporting by Tom Daly; Additional reporting by Polina Devitt)


https://www.zawya.com/en/business/commodities/aluminium-bahrain-sales-fall-17-in-war-disrupted-q1-qiethhjl

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Copper Supply Concerns Worsen on Peru's Emergency Energy Measures

On May 12, copper prices notably grew in futures and spot markets, as supply-side concerns intensified. Following the price rise, China's refined copper trading declined, while spot premiums also fell due to cautious downstream procurement.

The Peruvian government approved an emergency decree on May 11, local time, allowing exceptional measures aimed at preventing a potential national energy crisis and guaranteeing fuel supplies across the country, which is expected to remain effective until December 31, 2026. As stable power supply is critically important to copper production, and Peru is one of the world's major copper-producing countries, the regulation further heightened global concerns over copper supply disruptions, driving a rapid increase in copper prices.

Regarding copper scrap trading in China, rising prices boosted holders' profits and thus increased spot supply, with raw material availability growing for copper anode smelters and downstream copper scrap processors. China's copper semis markets saw sluggish transactions on May 12, primarily suppressed by rebounding raw material prices, with end-user consumption generally expected to moderate due to the upcoming demand off-season.

Despite relatively high global refined copper inventories, the raw material side has been experiencing disruptions and supporting copper prices recently. With supportive fundamentals and easing macro pressures, copper prices are likely to stay elevated in the short term.


https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5123435-daily-copper-supply-concerns-worsen-on-perus-emergency-energy-measures-

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Cuba Runs Out of Diesel and Fuel Oil as Blackouts Worsen - Sherritt

By Irina Slav - May 14, 2026, 3:15 AM CDT

Cuba has run out of fuel oil and diesel, with only a limited supply of gas left, the BBC reportedtoday, citing the country’s energy minister, who said Cuba’s energy system was in critical condition.

“The sum of the different types of fuel: crude oil, fuel oil, of which we have absolutely none; diesel, of which we have absolutely none - I am being repetitive - the only thing we have is gas from our wells, where production has grown,” Vicente de la O Levy said.

The island nation has been suffering extensive blackouts as a result of the U.S. blockade aiming to induce regime change in Havana. The U.S. has offered to provide $100 million in what it called humanitarian aid, but only if “meaningful reforms to Cuba's communist system” are implemented.

“The decision rests with the Cuban regime to accept our offer of assistance or deny critical life-saving aid and ultimately be accountable to the Cuban people for standing in the way of critical assistance,” the U.S. State Department said in a statement this week.

Earlier in the year, Russia sent two tankers to Cuba, one with crude oil and the other with diesel, which helped alleviate the severe energy shortages on the blockaded island. The vessels reached the Cuban coast despite the U.S. blockade, with President Trump acknowledging Cuba needed relief.

More recently, Bloomberg reported that another Russian tanker was stalling about 1,000 miles from the Cuban coast. The vessel is under U.S. sanctions, the publication noted, and has been idling in open sea since mid-April.

Cuba’s energy crisis is already severe and about to become even more severe, as the weather gets hotter and demand for air-conditioning surges in the summer months. Meanwhile, the Barents Observer reported that the first tanker that delivered crude to Cuba had loaded another cargo at the northern port of Murmansk, adding that it was not immediately clear whether it would set off for Cuba again.


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Cuba-Runs-Out-of-Diesel-and-Fuel-Oil-as-Blackouts-Worsen.html

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Steel

India Lacks Adequate Scrap Supply, Only 25% Steel Demand Can be Met Through Scrap-Based Production: Former Steel Secretary


India does not have adequate scrap availability for large-scale green steel production, with only around 25 per cent of the country's steel demand currently being met through scrap-based manufacturing, noted former Steel Secretary of India and Director at Jindal Steel & Power, Sanjay Kumar Singh.

Speaking with ANI, on the sidelines of PHDCCI National Conclave on Raw Material Securitisation for Metals & Minerals Advancing Self-Reliance, Resilience & Resource Security, Singh said, "We do not have scrap in the country. Only 25 per cent of the steel can be made from scrap, whatever we are consuming in the country. So we have to rely on iron ore. And iron ore invariably uses a blast furnace for the production of steel. So that's a challenge in green steel.

"He said the steel sector is facing twin challenges of raw material availability and decarbonisation, adding that the quality of iron ore in the country is deteriorating rapidly."

This is a very critical area for the metal industry. The availability of raw material and the quality of raw material year to year within the country are depleting. Steel industry requires iron ore, coking coal and other metals required as alloys," he said.

According to Singh, lower-grade iron ore increases environmental costs as more energy is required in steel production, leading to higher carbon dioxide emissions.

"And another challenge, which is bigger than the availability of raw material, is sustainability and decarbonisation. When the quality is depleting, it adds to the environmental cost. It requires more energy and emits more carbon dioxide," he added.

Speaking on green steel production, Singh said pilot projects are underway in the country, but fully green commercial steel production remains difficult.

"Steel is one such consumable which cannot be made absolutely green. Some amount of emission it would be doing. Unless we are using renewable energy, scrap and electric arc furnace, emissions cannot come down substantially," he said, adding that these methods can reduce emissions by nearly 80 per cent from current levels.

Highlighting government initiatives, Singh referred to the National Green Hydrogen Mission , the renewable energy push and the proposed green steel mission. He also stressed the importance of the Carbon Credit Trading System (CCTS), saying it would become a major mechanism for reducing emissions in carbon-intensive sectors like steel.

"Those who eliminate carbon dioxide get a credit, while those emitting more will eventually have to buy credits. Right now it is voluntary, but in time it will become mandatory," he said.

On the domestic steel industry, Singh said India's crude steel production has reached around 168-169 million tonnes and is growing at nearly 8-9 per cent annually, with consumption also rising at a similar pace.


https://infra.economictimes.indiatimes.com/amp/news/construction/india-lacks-adequate-scrap-supply-only-25-steel-demand-can-be-met-through-scrap-based-production-former-steel-secy/131061606

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Coal

UBS Warns Potential ‘Super El Niño’ Could Tighten Thermal Coal Markets and Lift Prices

UBS has flagged the risk of a “super El Niño” developing from mid-2026, which it says could tighten the seaborne thermal coal market and push prices higher, with Indonesian and Australian producers set to benefit.

The World Meteorological Organisation expects an El Niño event to develop in the coming months, and some scientists predict it could be the strongest this century based on high Pacific Ocean surface temperatures.

UBS said such events typically trigger intense and prolonged heatwaves across Asia, where coal-fired plants account for roughly 70% of electricity generation in India and around 55% in China and across the region more broadly.

Higher demand for air conditioning should lift overall coal consumption and coal imports, while in Latin America and Africa, changes to rainfall patterns associated with El Niño can reduce output from hydroelectric dams, which provide a significant share of generation in both regions.

With global power systems already under strain from the US-Iran conflict, UBS sees a risk that the weather event could compound existing supply pressures.

The broker noted a potential constraint on Indonesian supply from new export quotas, though feedback from a recent industry tour suggested authorities are willing to approve additional quota allocations following recent price rises.

On iron ore, UBS said March quarter shipments from the major producers were broadly resilient and generally in line with or modestly ahead of expectations despite weather disruptions, with Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF), BHP Group Ltd (LSE:BHP, ASX:BHP), Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) and Vale all delivering solid operational performances.

Fortescue was more mixed, with solid haematite shipments offset by disappointment at its Iron Bridge magnetite project, leading to a guidance downgrade.

Iron ore prices have risen to $112 per tonne, supported by higher freight rates, with Australia-to-China shipping costs up $5 per tonne since the end of February and Brazil-to-China routes up approximately $11 per tonne.

Chinese port inventories remain close to all-time highs at around 160 million tonnes but have started to fall seasonally, while steel exports lifted month-on-month in April.

UBS holds neutral ratings on BHP, Rio Tinto, Vale and Fortescue, and estimates spot 2026 free cash flow yields of 5% for BHP, 9% for Rio Tinto and 11% for Vale.


https://ima-api.org/ubs-warns-potential-super-el-nino-could-tighten-thermal-coal-markets-and-lift-prices/

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