A view of a ruined and abandoned town in the Donetsk region, Russian-controlled Ukraine, on April 1, 2025, amid the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict. AFP/Getty Images
A new Trump administration plan for the end of the war in Ukraine would see Kyiv cede territory to Russia, US “de facto” recognition of Crimea and other Ukrainian territory forcibly seized by the Kremlin as Russian, and limits to the size of Ukraine’s military, according to a draft of the plan obtained Thursday by CNN.
The draft’s veracity was confirmed to CNN by a US official. Many of the ideas put forward in the 28-point plan have been rejected in previous negotiations by Ukraine and European officials and would be seen as concessions to Russia.
US officials said the plan was still being worked on, and that any final agreement would require concessions from both sides, not just Ukraine. Some of the points being circulated now – including some that appear weighted toward Moscow’s demands – are not final, officials said, and will almost certainly evolve. During a Thursday afternoon briefing, the White House press secretary said the plan remained “in flux.”
After meeting a top US military official in Kyiv on Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky agreed to work with the Trump administration on the new plan, saying in a social media post that he was prepared for “constructive, honest and swift work” to achieve peace.
However, Moscow had not yet been informed that Zelensky was ready to discuss the plan, a Russian journalist cited Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov as saying, state media reported Friday.
The 28-point plan, which President Donald Trump has reviewed and supports, is the White House’s latest attempt to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to an end. Some of the proposal’s provisions – including territorial concessions in areas not currently held by Russia – have previously been nonstarters with the Ukrainians. But US officials see a new window of opportunity to restart peace discussions.
The plan is still in the framework stage, and its many points haven’t been finalized.
What’s in the draft plan
Similar to the ceasefire in Gaza, the draft describes the plan’s implementation as being “monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by President Donald J. Trump.”
“Sanctions will be imposed for violations,” it states.
The draft plan would have Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk be recognized “as de facto Russian, including by the United States.” This would mark a stunning reversal of longstanding US policy to acknowledge Ukraine’s territorial integrity and not recognize forcible changes in territory.
The draft plan says Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, “which will mean de facto recognition along the line of contact.”
“Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions,” it says.
The plan calls for Ukrainian forces to withdraw from the parts of Donetsk that they currently control, “and this withdrawal zone will be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as territory belonging to the Russian Federation.”
The plan states that Russian forces will not enter the demilitarized zone. The two countries would commit not to change the agreed-upon territorial arrangements by force, or else security guarantees would not apply.
The security guarantees, which the plan says Ukraine will receive, are not detailed in the draft. However, it notes that the US will receive compensation for its guarantee.
If Russia invades Ukraine, “in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked,” the draft states.
“If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St. Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid,” it notes.
The draft plan includes a commitment that Ukraine will not join NATO, that NATO will not station troops in Ukraine, and that European fighter jets be stationed in Poland.
It limits the size of the Ukrainian armed forces to 600,000 personnel. It also calls for Ukrainian elections within 100 days.
The draft calls for the creation of a joint US-Russia “working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.”
It outlines a return of Russia into the global community, including the lifting of sanctions, invitation to rejoin the G8, and its reintegration into the global economy.
The plan would see “all parties” in the war “receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin is wanted by the International Criminal Court for the crime of forcibly deporting Ukrainian children. The plan calls for the return of “all civilian detainees and hostages,” including children, and the exchange of all prisoners of war and bodies.
The draft calls for the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant to “be launched under the supervision of the IAEA, and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine.”
“President Trump has made it very clear since day one, and even on the campaign trail, that he wants to see this war come to an end. He has grown increasingly frustrated with both sides of this war, Russia and Ukraine alike, for their refusal to commit to a peace agreement,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said during her briefing. “Nevertheless, the president and his national security team are steadfast in seeing this war come to an end.”
Leavitt rejected suggestions the plan was overly weighted toward Moscow, and said the administration had “talked equally with both sides” to create it.
“It’s a good plan for both Russia and Ukraine, and we believe that it should be acceptable to both sides, and we’re working very hard to get it done,” she said.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested late Wednesday the document was a “list of potential ideas” rather than a completed proposal.
“Ending a complex and deadly war such as the one in Ukraine requires an extensive exchange of serious and realistic ideas,” he wrote in a post on X. “And achieving a durable peace will require both sides to agree to difficult but necessary concessions. That is why we are and will continue to develop a list of potential ideas for ending this war based on input from both sides of this conflict.”
Still, some of the provisions being floated are likely to draw criticism from Ukraine and its backers since it would require significant land concessions. The two regions that form the Donbas, Luhansk and Donetsk, are still partially held by Ukraine.
The proposal echoes a peace proposal from talks in Istanbul in the early weeks of the war in 2022, repeating some of Moscow’s wider geopolitical demands about Ukraine’s armed forces and allegiances.
Talks in Ukraine
Army Secretary Dan Driscoll met with Zelensky in Ukraine on Thursday and delivered him the Trump administration’s proposed peace plan, a US defense official told CNN.
Driscoll and Zelensky discussed “a collaborative plan to achieve peace in Ukraine” and “agreed on an aggressive timeline for signature,” the defense official said. The official clarified that the US expected Zelensky to sign a framework with the US to work toward an eventual peace agreement, not sign onto a final peace deal itself.
It’s not clear how aggressive that timeline is, or whether Zelensky agreed to its points. European and Ukrainian officials told CNN on Wednesday that the plan appears to contain unacceptable and maximalist demands from Russia, including ceding territory in the eastern Donbas region that Russia does not even currently control.
But the Ukrainian presidential office said Thursday on X that “the President of Ukraine has officially received from the American side a draft plan which, in the American side’s assessment, could help reinvigorate diplomacy.”
“The President of Ukraine outlined the fundamental principles that matter to our people, and following today’s meeting, the parties agreed to work on the plan’s provisions in a way that would bring about a just end to the war,” the Ukrainian presidential office said, adding that Zelensky expects to speak with Trump in the coming days.
Asked why the Army was tasked with delivering the peace plan rather than diplomats, the defense official said the Army “comes from a trusted position” with the Ukrainians, and is also in Ukraine to hold meetings on battlefield innovation — a topic Driscoll has been deeply involved in throughout his tenure as secretary.
“We come from a trusted position. The US Army is a proven Ukraine ally,” the official said.
‘Groundhog Day’
A European diplomat echoed a Western official’s description of some of the details of the proposal. The person told CNN that the new effort, which repeats many of Moscow’s maximalist demands dating back to 2022, reminded them of “Groundhog Day,” a film in which events repeat themselves over and over.
A European envoy based in Ukraine said the plan had caught the diplomatic community completely by surprise.
“This has all been gone through before and rejected, and now we’re back to square one,” the diplomat said. “For the Ukrainians, it is just a non-starter and with good reason. It would just be inviting the Russians to come back again at a future date. It would be political suicide for any Ukrainian leader (to accept it), and it would be military suicide to hand over that fortified area.”
The diplomat also described foreign ministries in Europe and elsewhere calling contacts in Washington for guidance on the plan only to be told they were equally in the dark.
“We have heard directly from people in the State Department and on Capitol Hill that nobody knew anything about this plan until it was leaked yesterday,” the diplomat said.
“People who should have known about it, knew nothing about it … There’s a lot of annoyance and confusion.”
In her first public comments since reports of the plan emerged, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, told reporters Thursday that “for any plan to work, it needs Ukrainians and Europeans on board.” Poland’s foreign minister Radosław Sikorski, meanwhile, told CNN that any plans should involve Europe and leave Kyiv with the capacity to defend itself.
“We have a much bigger stake in this than the US, and therefore Ukraine, but also Europe, has to be involved,” he said.
Rustem Umerov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said work on the talks was continuing “at the technical level between the teams” and that they were “carefully studying all of our partners’ proposals, expecting the same respectful attitude towards Ukraine’s position.”
Olga Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United States, told the Washington Post Live, “This is the start of a good process.”
“If we’re finally having the leadership of the president of the United States, and this leadership is backed up by a real process, I think this is serious,” she said.
Trump’s special envoy, Steve Witkoff, has been leading the effort, CNN reported on Wednesday, with a source saying the negotiations accelerated this week as the administration feels the Kremlin has signaled a renewed openness to a deal. A US official said Witkoff had been quietly working on the plan for a month, with input from both the Ukrainians and the Russians on the terms they could accept.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, reiterated its denial that it was working with the US on a peace proposal for Ukraine, saying Thursday there were “no new developments.”
“We have nothing new to add to what was said in Anchorage,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, referencing a meeting between Putin and Trump in Alaska in August. “We have no new developments.”
CNN’s Andrew Carey, Nick Paton Walsh, Brian Abel, and Catherine Nicholls contributed to this report.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/11/20/politics/ukraine-russia-trump-peace-proposal
Tashkent, Uzbekistan (UzDaily.com) — Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. (Adnoc) is considering the acquisition of assets of the Russian oil and gas company Lukoil in Uzbekistan, which are currently under U.S. sanctions, Bloomberg reports.
According to the agency, American oil majors Exxon and Chevron are showing interest in Lukoil’s stakes in Iraq and Kazakhstan. At the same time, Lukoil itself plans to sell its foreign assets as a single package.
In Uzbekistan, Lukoil operates under production sharing agreements (PSAs) on the Kandym–Khauzak–Shady and Southwest Gissar projects, engaging in gas extraction and processing, and manages a network of filling stations. The company’s total investments in the country exceed US$10 billion, making it one of the largest foreign investors in Uzbekistan’s gas sector.
In October 2025, the U.S. Department of the Treasury announced new sanctions against Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil, as well as their subsidiaries.
The restrictions cover 28 subsidiaries of Rosneft and six subsidiaries of Lukoil based in Russia.
https://www.uzdaily.uz/en/adnoc-shows-interest-in-lukoils-assets-in-uzbekistan/
The $5-billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP), which is planned to export crude oil from Uganda via a port in Tanzania, is now 75% complete, moving landlocked Uganda a step closer to becoming an oil exporter.
EACOP, a controversial pipeline project that has seen a lot of environmental opposition and planning and construction delays, is now about three-quarters completed, according to the Petroleum Authority of Uganda (PAU) as quoted by Reuters.
With pipeline construction progressing, Uganda now aims to begin oil production from its oilfields in its Albertine rift basin in the west in the second half of 2026.
The EACOP project is for a 1,443-kilometer-long (897 miles) pipeline to be built from landlocked Uganda to the Tanga port in Tanzania. The oil pipeline is expected to bring crude from the Lake Albert project in Uganda to the international oil market. It is designed to transport 216,000 barrels of crude oil per day, with a ramp-up of up to 246,000 bpd, Uganda says.
EACOP shareholders are France’s supermajor TotalEnergies with a 62% stake, Uganda National Oil Company Limited (UNOC) with 15%, Tanzania Petroleum Development Corporation (TPDC) holding another 15%, and CNOOC, the state oil giant of China, with an 8% interest.
The Lake Albert region in Uganda is estimated to hold more than one billion barrels of oil and gas resource equivalent. Uganda wanted to develop them under the projects Tilenga, operated by TotalEnergies, and Kingfisher by CNOOC.
Addressing environmental concerns, TotalEnergies has said that both the Tilenga project and the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline are among its lowest-emission operations, with an average Scope 1 and 2 intensity of 12 kilograms of CO2 equivalent per barrel of oil equivalent. The total carbon dioxide emissions of both over their lifetime are calculated by the company at 13.5 million tons.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
This is reported by Bloomberg
Following the new U.S. sanctions and the likely seizure of Russian assets in the form of oil refineries in Bulgaria – and probably also in Serbia – there is a perception of diminished Putin’s influence in the Balkans after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts note that the push to expel Russian oil giants out of the region helps reduce the Kremlin’s ability to conduct lobbying activities and other forms of interaction with the political and business elites of the Balkans, thereby reducing its influence in the region.
In Bulgaria, the government took control of the assets of the Russian oil giant Lukoil and Neftohim, depriving shareholders of rights and appointing a manager to negotiate a potential sale. The parliamentary committee needed only 26 seconds to overturn 26 years of Russian ownership.
Serbia: The Path to Possible State Control Over NIS
In Belgrade, authorities aim to avoid full nationalization, but are considering options to buy Naftna Industrija Srbije AD (NIS), which is under the control of Gazprom. It is also known that NIS lost oil supply last month after the expiration of several U.S. sanctions exemptions. The Serbian oil refinery has reserves of about a week, after which the government may tap into reserves or seek crude resources at high prices, increasing the likelihood that President Aleksandar Vučić will decide the plant’s future. He noted that the corresponding decision must be found by November 23.
The Balkans in the Context of European Strategy and Global Sanctions
The situation underscores growing pressure on the region from European policy: the EU cannot ignore pressure for Serbia to join sanctions against Russia. Experts also note that effective U.S. steps against the Russian oil sector erode the Kremlin’s economic ability to sustain influence in the Balkan region. Together with continued sanctions against Russian assets, this will affect Belgrade’s and Sofia’s energy decisions and shape a new balance of power in the region.
In sum, the situation in the Balkans demonstrates how global sanctions mechanisms affect local energy: from indirect pressure on supply chains to potential decisions on state control over strategic assets. Depending on how the governments of Bulgaria and Serbia use their positions, the region may move toward greater autonomy from Russian influence or face new challenges in its energy system.
https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/us-sanctions-reduce-russian-influence-in-balkans-oil-sector/amp/
Chinese group PowerChina is strengthening its hydroelectric, solar and gas projects across the African continent, aiming to raise the share of its African revenues to 45% of its international activities by 2030.
State-owned Power Construction Corporation of China (PowerChina) has announced its intention to significantly expand its presence in the renewable energy sector in Africa. The company plans to extend its hydroelectric, solar and gas projects across the continent as part of a strategy to diversify its energy portfolio and reinforce its international revenues.
Regional growth target by 2030
According to statements from a PowerChina representative at an economic summit in Johannesburg, African revenues currently account for around 30% of the company’s international operations. The group aims to increase this figure to between 40 and 45% by 2030. PowerChina is targeting commercial presence in nearly all African markets over the next five years, relying on a mix of ongoing developments and completed infrastructure.
Project deployment across multiple markets
In South Africa, PowerChina is developing several photovoltaic projects and participating in the construction of the Redstone concentrated solar power plant. The company has also contributed to the development of the Adama wind farm in Ethiopia and designed the hybrid Oya project to stabilise electricity production from intermittent sources. This project is considered a pilot that could be replicated in other markets.
Focus on industrial and mining projects
In Zambia, PowerChina delivered a 100MW solar plant in June intended to supply the operations of First Quantum Minerals, a major copper producer. This installation is part of a series of projects designed to meet the growing energy demand of extractive industries on the continent.
An investment strategy despite an evolving financial context
The decline in Chinese loans to African governments since 2016 has not hindered PowerChina’s engagement on the continent. The company is now prioritising targeted partnerships, taking into account regulatory requirements and the economic viability of its projects. The group states that its African expansion will rely on cooperation with local authorities and the private sector to ensure long-term profitability of renewable energy operations.
https://energynews.pro/en/powerchina-accelerates-its-investments-in-renewable-energy-in-africa/
Global cocoa prices plunged to multi month lows this week as softening demand from chocolate manufacturers overshadowed lingering supply worries, even as chocolate confectionery remains the fastest rising grocery category in the United Kingdom.
Cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) New York fell sharply on Wednesday, with December contracts closing down 319 points at a 6.06% decline. December ICE London cocoa dropped 256 points, representing a 6.32% fall. The declines pushed prices to their lowest levels since February 2024 on the nearest futures chart, with New York cocoa trading around $4,943 to $5,345 per tonne depending on contract month.
The weekly price movement reflects approximately a 3% to 4% decline across both major exchanges, reinforcing what analysts describe as a bearish, consumption driven correction. Market observers attribute the slump to weakening demand rather than any sudden improvement in supply conditions.
Structural risks affecting cocoa production, including ageing trees, disease pressure, and rainfall variability in West Africa, remain in play but have not escalated in recent days. Weather conditions across the region showed no significant anomalies over the past seven days, meaning meteorological factors did not contribute to this week’s price movement.
The demand led sell off comes amid encouraging signals from major growing regions. Chocolate maker Mondelez International recently reported that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa stands 7% above the five year average and materially higher than last year’s crop. Ivory Coast farmers have expressed optimism about the quality of the upcoming main crop harvest, which is expected to begin next month.
Adding downward pressure, European Union (EU) nations are pushing for a one year delay to the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which was scheduled to take effect in late December. The regulation aims to restrict imports of commodities including cocoa from regions where deforestation occurs. A postponement would ease supply concerns and allow continued imports from parts of Africa, Indonesia, and South America.
Cocoa’s extraordinary volatility over the past year has tested the global chocolate industry. Futures prices peaked above $12,000 per metric tonne in late 2024, more than quadrupling from the $2,000 to $3,000 range typical of the preceding decade. The surge prompted major manufacturers to revise earnings forecasts and sparked discussion about alternatives such as carob as a cocoa substitute.
Despite retreating from those record highs, elevated raw material costs continue to squeeze chocolate manufacturers’ margins. Grindings, a measure of demand from processors, remain subdued in key processing regions, with evidence suggesting that some consumers are trading down or reducing premium chocolate purchases.
Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar), noted that British supermarkets are intensifying promotional activity as the Christmas season approaches. Discounted spending rose 9.4% year on year in October, with nearly 30% of all grocery purchases made through promotions. He noted that retailers are emphasising price cuts rather than multibuy offers as they compete for footfall.
UK grocery sales reached 35.26 billion pounds in the 12 weeks to 2 November, representing 4% year on year growth. Take home sales in the four week period grew 3.2%, though this figure trails the 4.7% inflation rate, indicating that volumes declined in real terms.
Among grocery categories, chocolate confectionery leads price increases alongside fresh meat and coffee, while household paper, sugar confectionery, and pet food prices continue falling. The persistence of chocolate inflation reflects the lagged impact of earlier cocoa price spikes working through supply chains.
The macroeconomic backdrop provides further justification for cautious sentiment. Weak global economic growth continues to weigh on discretionary spending, while high interest rates in major consuming markets have crimped household budgets. Processors report subdued sentiment and are moderating bean purchases in response.
UBS has reduced its cocoa price forecast by $1,750 per metric tonne across its forecast horizon, citing weakened demand conditions. Analyst consensus suggests prices are likely to ease further next year from current elevated levels, though not as sharply as futures curves currently imply.
West Africa, which supplies over 70% of the world’s cocoa, faces ongoing structural challenges. Ivory Coast’s mid crop is projected at 400,000 metric tonnes, down 20% from historical norms due to weather extremes, swollen shoot virus, and poor bean quality.
For the short term, market analysts anticipate neutral to slightly bearish conditions, with demand weakness the dominant driver and supply stable. Medium term upside risks persist should West African weather shift abruptly, disease impact yields, or export disruptions emerge. However, softening consumption currently outweighs supply concerns, leaving cocoa trading like a demand sensitive asset rather than a scarcity commodity.
https://www.newsghana.com.gh/cocoa-prices-tumble-as-weak-global-demand-outpaces-supply-concerns/
South African billionaire Patrice Motsepe.
Harmony Gold, South Africa’s largest gold producer, backed by Patrice Motsepe, Africa’s first Black billionaire, is weighing a major copper venture in Papua New Guinea with U.S. miner Newmont Corporation, Motsepe said Tuesday.
“There’s a huge investment that we are currently looking at in Papua New Guinea,” Motsepe said at a Bloomberg event. “We’ve got a partnership there with Newmont that might require as much as four or five billion dollars to be invested down the line.”
Large-scale project under review
Motsepe said Harmony’s finances are strong enough to support a project of that size. The company holds R13 billion ($754.8 million) in cash and has access to another R7 billion ($406.4 million) in credit lines.
He said the group expects to allocate a sizeable share of that capital to Australia and Papua New Guinea, where copper prospects remain central to future growth. Shareholders, he added, expect Harmony to pursue opportunities in those regions.
The potential investment in Papua New Guinea aligns with rising demand for metals needed in the global shift toward cleaner energy systems, Motsepe said.
Expanding across regions and minerals
African Rainbow Minerals, which Motsepe founded and which is one of Harmony’s key investors, will continue to invest in gold, platinum group metals, iron ore and manganese in South Africa. It also maintains a copper position in Canada.
Founded in 1950, Harmony operates mines in South Africa, Papua New Guinea and Australia. Its copper portfolio in Australia has grown in recent years, anchored by the Eva Copper Project, which aims to produce up to 60,000 tonnes of copper annually once operational.
Motsepe holds an 11.8 percent stake in Harmony through African Rainbow Minerals. He has been a key backer since the company’s merger with Avmin in 2003. The recent MAC Copper acquisition marks another step in Harmony’s effort to broaden its international presence.
Revenue lift and latest acquisition
Harmony reported revenue of R73.9 billion ($4.3 billion) in its latest financial year , up from R61.4 billion ($3.56 billion) previously, supported by a 27 percent rise in the average gold price to R1.53 million ($88,810) per kilogram.
Barrick Mining Restructures Leadership as Elliott Takes Stake and Acquisition Talk Rises
Barrick Mining Corp. is undertaking a sweeping management overhaul as the Canadian gold producer faces mounting speculation about a potential acquisition or corporate breakup.
According to an internal letter to employees from newly appointed chief executive officer Mark Hill—reviewed by Bloomberg—the company is implementing significant leadership changes and revising its regional operating model. Two senior managers and a top executive are departing as part of the restructuring.
The move comes shortly after activist investor Elliott Investment Management LP acquired a substantial stake in Barrick. The firm has been under pressure following operational setbacks and cost overruns that left it lagging behind competitors despite soaring gold prices.
Barrick has also been troubled by the seizure of a key mine in Mali and three fatalities this year. Former CEO Mark Bristow abruptly stepped down in September.
Hill is initiating the restructuring as reports circulate that Barrick is evaluating a potential breakup, including the possibility of splitting into two publicly listed companies. Last month, Bloomberg reported that Newmont Corp. examined a deal that would give it control of both companies’ highly valued Nevada assets.
In his letter, Hill described Barrick’s recent safety record as “deeply concerning” and its operational performance as “inconsistent.”
“While the fundamentals of our company are excellent, we cannot continue to operate in this way,” Hill wrote. The changes, he added, are intended to better align the operating model with strategic priorities and concentrate leadership where it can have the greatest effect.
Barrick declined to comment on the developments.
As part of the reorganization, the company will integrate its Dominican Republic operations into its North American division and merge its Latin American and Asia-Pacific regions into a single operating unit.
Several senior personnel changes were also announced. Kevin Thomson, head of corporate development, has left the company, as have Christine Keener, chief operating officer for North America, and Kevin Annett, North American chief financial officer. Their roles will be filled by George Joannou, Tim Cribb, and Wessel Hamman, respectively.
Hill also revealed that Barrick’s major Pakistan copper project, Reko Diq, will operate under its own leadership structure due to its scale. Chad Coulin will serve as project director, while Gui Recena Costa will lead the consolidated Latin American operations.
Despite recent challenges, Barrick’s shares have risen 119% over the past year—though this remains below the average 131% gain among its peers as investors increasingly turn to gold amid concerns over government debt and shifts in central bank reserve strategies.
GOLD and SILVER rallied again Thursday, reversing the drop made yesterday on better-than-expected US trade data plus news that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in December, as delayed jobs data for September put US unemployment at a 4-year high.
After cutting US interest rates in October, "Many participants suggested that, under their economic outlooks, it would likely be appropriate to keep the target range unchanged for the rest of the year," said minutes of that Fed meeting released Wednesday, confirming 'hawkish' Fed comments made since.
August's US imports of goods and services were $59.6 billion greater than its exports, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said yesterday, close to the smallest monthly trade deficit since the fall of 2020, thanks to a sudden stop in gold bullion imports.
"Total nonfarm payroll employment has shown little change since April," said the Bureau of Labor Statistics today, reporting net jobs growth of 119,000 for September − news also delayed by the US government shutdown − and putting the unemployment rate 1 tick higher than August at 4.4%, the highest since October 2021.
Betting in the futures market today put 44% odds on a December rate cut from the Fed, up from yesterday's plunge to 30% but still contrasting with traders' near-unanimous 'dead-cert' view of a month ago.
Gold topped $4100 per Troy ounce on Thursday for the 4th time this week, trading exactly where prices stood at this point in October.
Silver meantime dropped over $2 per ounce from Wednesday's peak above $52 but then rallied to $51.25, trading 6.8% higher from one month ago.
Global stock markets rose for a 2nd session after the plunge in AI hyperscalers and crypto tokens saw the MSCI World Index record its longest stretch of losses since spring 2024, while industrial commodities such as crude oil and copper traded little changed, as did longer-term borrowing costs in the bond market.
With Western financial news focused on Beijing's "true" gold reserves while analysts point to China's larger-than-reported US Dollar reserves as well, sanctioned neighbor Russia − now discussing a 28-point peace plan proposed by the Trump White House but as yet rejected by Ukraine − says its central bank is growing gold-trading activity for Moscow's National Wealth Fund.
In contrast to today's BLS figures, US payrolls fell by 32,000 in September according to the private-sector ADP estimate, followed by growth of 42,000 in October.
August's sharp drop in US gold bullion imports came amid confusion over the White House's tariffs policy for bullion bars − confusion which wasn't dispelled until President Trump declared that "Gold will not be tariffed!" the following month.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-news/gold-fed-unemployment-112020251
Molybdenum market update on November 20, 2025
The domestic molybdenum market has been generally weak overall. Amid the interplay of bullish and bearish factors, traders’ sentiment varies, primarily reflected in relatively chaotic supplier quotations and a cautious consumption attitude among buyers—despite their willingness to purchase on dips.
In the molybdenum concentrate market, mining enterprises significantly raised quotations in the preceding days. This triggered heightened price aversion among downstream users, leading to fewer inquiries and reduced demand, with product prices surging briefly before retreating.
In the ferromolybdenum market, the overall trend remains under pressure. Influenced by the decline in molybdenum concentrate prices and strong price suppression from steel mills, intermediate smelters have lowered their quotations. Notably, however, steel mills have shown increased inquiry activity under these conditions.
In the molybdenum chemical and related products market, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere prevails. With end-users essentially maintaining only rigid demand and suppliers exhibiting low willingness to ship, the recent sharp ups and downs in raw material prices have not caused obvious disturbance to the prices of molybdenum chemical products and their derivatives.
News update: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, of the 623 industrial products tracked for enterprises above designated size in October, output increased year-on-year for 313 products. Key figures include:
Steel: 118.64 million tonnes, decreased by 0.9% year-on-year
Cement: 147.75 million tonnes, decreased by 15.8%
Ten non-ferrous metals: 6.95 million tonnes, increased by 2.9%
Ethylene: 3.14 million tonnes, increased by 11.7%
Automobiles: 3.279 million units, increased by 11.2%, of which new energy vehicles reached 1.710 million units, increased by 19.3%
Electricity generation: 800.2 billion kWh, increased by 7.9%
Crude oil processed: 63.43 million tonnes, increased by 6.4%
The EU plans to limit aluminium scrap exports by 2026 to support domestic industries and bolster recycling efforts.
By Declan Conway
Key takeaways:
The European Commission is preparing to restrict exports of aluminium scrap in an effort to stem the increasing outflow of what is deemed a critical secondary raw material from the bloc.
Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič confirmed the move at a sector event on Tuesday November 18 in Brussels, saying the Commission has started preparatory work on a new measure aimed at tackling “scrap leakage.”
The plan is expected to be finalized and adopted in spring 2026.
“This is a strong and timely statement of intent from the Commission,” director general of Brussels-based industry body European Aluminium, Paul Voss, said.
“Europe’s future will to a large extent depend on its ability to secure access to the raw materials that our economy and our society require. It is therefore hugely encouraging to see the EU acting so decisively to save our scrap,” Voss added.
How much aluminium scrap does the EU currently export?
EU aluminium scrap exports reached a record 1.26 million tonnes in 2024, roughly 50% higher than five years earlier, according to European Aluminium. Much of this material is flowing to Asia, but market distortions created by US tariffs have also played a key role.
About 40% — around 5 million tonnes per year — of the EU’s consumption of aluminium metal comes from recycling, according to European Aluminium.
The US currently imposes a 50% tariff on primary aluminium while exempting scrap, making scrap more attractive to American buyers. This has increased US demand for imported scrap while reducing its own exports, pushing Asian buyers to focus even more heavily on European supply.
European aluminium producers say the surge in exports is now leaving domestic recycling facilities short of feedstock, with an estimated 15% of EU recycling furnace capacity currently offline. The industry has invested heavily in new recycling infrastructure but still lacks about 2 million tonnes of scrap per year to run plants at full capacity.
Many aluminium producers are calling for a 30% export duty on aluminium scrap to try and keep more material within Europe.
Šefčovič said that any final policy will be “balanced” and take into account the interests of producers, recyclers, downstream manufacturers and exporters.
He highlighted the environmental viewpoint: recycled aluminium needs 95% less energy than producing primary metal, making steady access to scrap essential for the EU’s decarbonization goals, as well as for low-carbon industries such as automotive and renewable energy equipment.
Why do aluminium scrap suppliers oppose the EU’s restrictions?
But scrap suppliers strongly oppose export restrictions, arguing that high export volumes reflect weak domestic demand and insufficient EU capacity for processing mixed-grade scrap, particularly from end-of-life vehicles. Suppliers said that limits on exports may undermine the scrap industry, threaten jobs and disrupt Europe’s circular-economy objectives.
Scrap dealers, too, are resisting any curbs because overseas buyers typically pay higher prices than domestic customers.
The European Recycling Industries’ Confederation (EuRIC) argues that the solution is not tariffs, but stronger demand for recycled aluminium inside Europe.
Market participants estimate that a 25-30% export tariff would add €50-150 per tonne to the cost of scrap leaving the EU, assuming that purchasers pass that cost on to their bids. For domestic scrap, market participants say €20-40 per tonne may be added to prices, particularly for high-grade material, while marginal grades may see discounts or be stockpiled.
But those effects would depend, market sources have said, on freight rates, EU smelters’ willingness to pay more and stable energy costs.
The Commission has already put a metal scrap surveillance system in place, rolled out in mid-2025, to track export flows more closely. The data is expected to feed into a formal assessment next year, after which policymakers will decide between options such as export duties, export licensing, or mandatory recycled-content targets.
https://www.fastmarkets.com/insights/eu-moves-to-restrict-aluminium-scrap-exports/
Stainless Steel Cost Support Weakens, Futures Decline, Spot Prices Remain Weak [SMM Stainless Steel Daily Report]
SMM November 20 - SS futures continued to hit bottom. Today, SS futures extended their previous weakness, breaking below the recent low of nearly 5 points and once falling to 12,255 yuan/mt. In the spot market, SS futures kept declining intraday, further dampening purchase sentiment. Traders had to cut prices for sales, but transactions remained sluggish. Today, a major stainless steel mill announced procurement prices for high-grade NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome. The high-grade NPI price was set at 880 yuan/mtu, and the December procurement price for ferrochrome was set at 8,395 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Its ability to drive down raw material prices was limited, and stainless steel costs remained high, suggesting that the decline in planned production might be modest. This week, social inventory saw destocking, down 1.28% WoW to 940,000 mt.
The most-traded SS futures contract was in the doldrums. At 10:30 a.m., the SS2601 contract was quoted at 12,330 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt from the previous trading day. In Wuxi, spot premiums/discounts for 304/2B were in the range of 390-640 yuan/mt. In the spot market, the average price of cold-rolled 201/2B coil in Wuxi was 8,025 yuan/mt; the average price of cold-rolled edged 304/2B coil was 12,675 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 12,700 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of cold-rolled 316L/2B coil was 24,300 yuan/mt in Wuxi and 24,300 yuan/mt in Foshan; the price of hot-rolled 316L/NO.1 coil was 23,700 yuan/mt in Wuxi; the price of cold-rolled 430/2B coil was 7,600 yuan/mt in both Wuxi and Foshan.
Stainless steel entered the off-season at year-end, with downstream demand significantly weak and market sentiment pessimistic. In the short term, the impact of macro policy support has gradually faded recently. With SHFE nickel and ferrous metals prices falling and weak fundamentals, SS futures continued to grind at the bottom, now at relatively low levels for the year, but bearish sentiment persists. Supply side, although several stainless steel mills announced production cut plans at year-end, the actual implementation in November was limited, and cuts were mainly concentrated in the 200-series stainless steel, which had seen significant production increases earlier. Production of 300-series and 400-series stainless steel remained largely stable, resulting in a limited overall supply decline. Cost side, losses at stainless steel mills persisted, and their acceptance of high-priced raw materials was low. Coupled with pessimistic market expectations, mills drove down prices for raw material purchases. Prices of high-carbon ferrochrome, high-grade NPI, and stainless steel scrap all trended weaker, lowering the cost center of stainless steel and weakening price support. Current stainless steel prices are already at low levels, facing resistance to further declines. However, given weak demand, limited production cuts by stainless steel mills, and weakened cost support, stainless steel prices are expected to remain weak.
The Jimblebar iron ore mine is a part of an 85:15 joint venture between BHP and Mitsui and ITOCHU. Credit: BHP
Protracted negotiations between China’s state iron ore buyer and miner BHP have tightened availability of some iron ore, seven sources said, underpinning prices despite weakening demand for the key steelmaking ingredient.
China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), set up in 2022 to centralize iron ore purchasing and win better terms from miners, asked Chinese steel mills and traders in September to stop buying BHP’s Jimblebar Blend Fines while negotiating annual contract terms with the Australian miner for 2026 supply.
Trade of Jimblebar fines is still frozen in China, leaving mills that previously used it switching to a substitute, Pilbara Blend Fines (PBF), rival Rio Tinto’s flagship product, resulting in a rapid drawdown in PBF inventory, the sources said.
A BHP spokesperson told Reuters “negotiations are ongoing”, declining to elaborate. CMRG did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Rio Tinto had no immediate comment.
Portside inventories of PBF began falling in mid- to late September and were down by around 40% to 6.5 million tons on November 18, the lowest since August, according to two of the sources with knowledge of the matter.
By contrast, portside stocks of Jimblebar fines, which account for around a quarter of BHP’s production, continued to pile up, surging by 156% over the same period, one of the sources said.
All sources requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Thinning margins have propelled Chinese steel mills to favor medium-grade cargoes such as PBF, heating up competition and accelerating the drawdown in port inventories, sources said.
Profitability among Chinese steel mills has been falling since mid-August, with only around 39% of mills operating at a profit by November 13, versus 55% in the same period a month before and 58% at the same time in 2024, data from consultancy Mysteel showed.
Iron ore futures prices hit a more than two-week high on Wednesday even as crude steel output in the world’s largest producer of the metal slid to the lowest level since December 2023 as bad weather led some northern mills to cut production.
The tightened availability of PBF at Chinese ports contributed to surprising resilience in iron ore prices, said the two trade sources and the other two analysts, with one of them adding that the situation created a “man-made bull market”.
Ore prices have climbed 3% from a month before and 8.4% from the beginning of the year to close at 791.5 yuan ($111.23) per metric ton on Wednesday.
