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Uranium - The Most Boring (but inevitable) Bull Market in History

Kazatomprom announces 1H2026 Financial Results

 By John Dyer   Posted in Supply U Posted on August 21, 2026

National Atomic Company “Kazatomprom” JSC (“Kazatomprom”, “KAP” or the “Company”) announces its consolidated financial results for six months ended 30 June 2026, prepared in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).

“Nuclear energy has officially transitioned from a policy debate on paper into operational execution. We see strong indication of this across the world. 38 countries, including Kazakhstan, signed the plan to triple nuclear power by 2050. Together, these nations make up over 70% of global GDP. That is a massive global change driving real momentum,” – said Meirzhan Yussupov, CEO of Kazatomprom.

“This acceleration in demand is meeting a highly disciplined commercial environment. Long-term indicators have been incredibly stable and reached maximum in 18 years, being in the mid-to-high ninety-dollar range per pound. This is a very strong foundation for any future term contracting. The market is also showing clear signals of a fundamental shift: pricing power has returned to producers with proven and large uranium reserves, while utilities procurement strategies are moving away from short-term spot reliance toward long-term inventory security.

“Within this very dynamic market framework, our strong and steady financial and operational results clearly demonstrate that our strategy is delivering exceptional value. The Group presented strong top-line growth and resilient results throughout the first half of 2026. This happened despite significant global economic instability and currency fluctuations. Consolidated revenue showed a 9% year-on-year growth to almost 718 billion tenge, reflecting financial discipline and favorable uranium market conditions.

“However, challenging factors have impacted uranium production costs industry-wide, with us experiencing similar pressures. New realities are signaling that the era of “cheap” uranium is fading away. But the fundamental urgency for secure, baseload, emission-free power is stronger than ever. Global utilities completely recognize this shift, and we are certain that long-term uranium demand is going to be consistent and powerful. Every single pound we produce will have a clear, committed, and waiting buyer.”

Corporate Update

Amendments to the Subsoil Use Code

On 7 July 2026, the Laws on “Radioactive waste management”, “Amendments to legislative acts for radioactive waste management, energy, and development of the civil nuclear industry” and “Amendments to legislative acts for radioactive waste management and regulation of subsoil activities” were signed. These laws introduce amendments to the Code on Subsoil Use and other legislative acts of the Republic of Kazakhstan effective 7 September 2026.

Equity Thresholds for Uranium Production Licences

The law now differentiates the regulatory framework for production licensing depending on the type of uranium deposit. For open-pit or underground uranium production deposits, licences granted to the National operator on uranium can only be transferred to legal entities where the National operator’s equity stake exceeds 50%. For In-Situ Recovery (ISR) deposits, the equity stake threshold remains unchanged at more than 75% ownership by the National operator. Currently, Kazatomprom holds a status of the national operator on uranium.

Extensions of Uranium Production Licences

In view of the national interests of the Republic of Kazakhstan, after obtaining approval from the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the authorised regulatory body has the right to decide on extending a uranium production period. This extension is conditional upon the inclusion of proportionate obligations within the mining contract and separate agreements that are not provided for in paragraph 5-1 of Article 173 of the Code on Subsoil Use of the Republic of Kazakhstan. These commitments must relate to ensuring national security or implementing strategic projects of nationwide value for the state, as proposed by a foreign participant (shareholder) in a uranium mining joint venture and/or a foreign government.

Regulatory Framework for Uranium Exploration

The legal framework for uranium exploration is changing from licensing to contracting (subsoil use agreement) regime. Also, newly issued subsoil use agreements for exploration will be eligible for a one-time extension of up to five years. This amendment allows for a total maximum duration of 11 years for subsoil use agreements on uranium exploration.

Radioactive Waste Management

Liquidation activities, previously carried out in-house by mining enterprises, will now be carried out exclusively by the National operator for radioactive waste management, a newly established function specified in the Law “On Radioactive Waste Management” No. 335-VIII dated 7 July 2026.

Completion of 2025 dividend payment

As previously disclosed, the Company has completed the payment of its 2025 dividends to shareholders on 29 July 2026. A total of KZT 335,158,763,820.16 (three hundred thirty-five billion one hundred fifty-eight million seven hundred sixty-three thousand eight hundred twenty tenge 16 tiyn) or KZT 1,292.27 (one thousand two hundred ninety-two tenge 27 tiyn) per one ordinary share (one GDR is equal to one ordinary share) was paid out to the Company’s shareholders, according to the decision adopted by the Annual General Meeting of Shareholders held on 26 May 2026.

For further detailed information on the distribution of dividends in various jurisdictions, shareholders should contact their brokers directly.

EGM notice

Today, Kazatomprom has notified its shareholders on the absentee Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) with the following agenda:

  1. On concluding a transaction, which in aggregate with interrelated transactions is a major transaction, in which Kazatomprom has an interest – the Spot-term contract for the sale and purchase of natural uranium concentrates with State Nuclear Uranium Resource Development Company Limited.
  2. On concluding a major transaction, in which Kazatomprom has an interest – Contract for the supply of natural uranium in the form of U3O8 with the Uranium One Group JSC.
  3. On the composition of the Board of Directors of Kazatomprom.

For more information on the EGM agenda items, detailed voting deadlines and procedure, please refer to the notice of the upcoming EGM. The notice and the ballot for absentee voting are available on the Company’s website.

Commissioning of the Zhalpak Processing Facility

As part of the mine development plan, Ortalyk LLP has been working on the construction of a processing facility at the Zhalpak deposit with a total production capacity of 900 tonnes per year. On 29 July 2026, the processing plant, with an annual capacity of up to 500 tonnes, was commissioned. Expansion to the nominal capacity of 900 tonnes is planned for 2027.

Update on TQZ Sulphuric Acid Plant Timeline

The project contractor has notified the Company that during earthworks it has encountered potential paleontological specimens at the TQZ site. In accordance with the law on national historical and cultural heritage, construction works in the affected area have been suspended pending official permit from relevant state authorities to resume work. Specialised excavations will be carried out in the area to safely and fully recover the specimens for comprehensive laboratory analysis.

Final assessment of this situation’s impact on the TQZ construction schedule will be determined upon completion of the mandatory regulatory procedures and the receipt of official findings from local authorities. The timeline for resuming construction remains subject to the completion of laboratory sample analyses and surrounding area surveys. Should further samples be discovered or the excavation zone be expanded, a revision of the plant’s project design documentation may become necessary to relocate infrastructure facilities outside the affected area.

Due to the regulatory suspension of work at the affected zone, the scheduled commissioning date for TQZ, originally targeted for the first quarter of 2027, is now projected to occur between the third quarter of 2027 and the first quarter of 2028, representing an anticipated project schedule shift of 6 to 12 months.

At this stage, the Company expects that this shift will not have a material impact on its uranium mining operations. Kazatomprom will evaluate potential impact of this situation with the consideration of existing sources of sulphuric acid. This assessment will be factored into the Company’s production guidance for 2027.

Mine Tour

As previously announced, Kazatomprom will be hosting a two-day tour to the Company’s uranium mines on  6-7 October 2026 for the representatives of investor community. Interested investors and analysts are welcome to pre-register until 15 September 2026 using the following link.

Key financial metrics

1 Calculated as: Profit for the period attributable to owners of the Company divided by Total share capital from section 9.0 OUTSTANDING SHARES of the Operating and Financial Review, rounded to the nearest KZT.

2 Adjusted EBITDA is calculated by excluding from EBITDA items not related to the main business and having a one-time effect. Calculation: Profit before tax – finance income + finance expense +/- Net FX loss/(gain) + Depreciation and amortisation + Impairment losses – reversal of impairment +/- one-off or unusual transactions.

3 Attributable EBITDA (previously “Adjusted Attributable EBITDA”) is calculated as: Adjusted EBITDA less the share of the results in the net profit in JVs and associates, plus the share of Adjusted EBITDA of JVs and associates engaged in the uranium segment, less non-controlling share of adjusted EBITDA of Appak LLP, JV Inkai LLP, Baiken-U LLP, Ortalyk LLP, Turanium LLP (previously – JV Khorasan-U LLP) and JV Budenovskoye LLP less any changes in the unrealized gain in the Group.

4 Includes income tax and interest paid.

Operating and Financial Review, and Financial Statements

The Operating and Financial Review, and Consolidated Financial Statements (unaudited, reviewed) provide detailed explanations of Kazatomprom’s results for the first half-year ended 30 June 2026. This press release should be read alongside these documents, all of which are available at www.kazatomprom.kz.

Revenue, Net profit, EBITDA

For the first half of 2026 the Group’s consolidated revenue amounted to KZT 717,834 million, a 9% increase compared to the same period of 2025 (KZT 660,167 million for the first half of 2025) which is mainly attributable to a to higher average realized price in USD per pound associated with the uranium spot price increase.

Operating profit in the first half of 2026 amounted to KZT 252,554 million in line with KZT 253,665 million in the first half of 2025.

Net profit in the first half of 2026 decreased by 9% compared to the same period of 2025, amounting to KZT 240,428 million (KZT 263,233 million in the first half of 2025). The decrease is mostly attributable to a higher net foreign exchange loss and higher finance costs:

  • exchange rate loss of KZT 19,351 million (in the first half of 2025: exchange rate loss of KZT 12,741 million) originated from appreciation of KZT against the USD;
  • a decrease in finance income to KZT 24,323 million (in the first half of 2025: KZT 30,914 million), which is associated with lower cash balances and reduced yields on USD-denominated financial instruments; and
  • an increase in finance costs: KZT 14,524 million (in the first half of 2025: KZT 9,039 million).

Adjusted EBITDA totalled KZT 371,252 million in the first half of 2026, comparable to the same period of 2025 (KZT 363,111 million in the first half of 2025).

Attributable EBITDA amounted to KZT 264,840 million in the first half of 2026, a 12% decrease compared to the same period of 2025 (KZT 302,408 million in the first half of 2025) mainly due to the higher share of EBITDA of mining entities attributable to the non-controlling partners, as a result of increase in volumes of uranium sold. Consequently, it resulted in a decrease in the EBITDA attributable to owners of Kazatomprom.

Cost of sales

Cost of sales totalled KZT 427,519 million in the first half of 2026, a 14% year-on-year increase (KZT 373,666 million in the first half of 2025) is primarily due to growth in production costs, as well as higher sales volumes of uranium produced by JOs and consolidated subsidiaries with non-controlling interest.

Selling expenses

Selling expenses totalled KZT 14,819 million in the first half of 2026, a 23% year-on-year increase (KZT 12,012 million in the first half of 2025). The increase was primarily driven by shifts in delivery destinations and higher transportation tariffs.

General & administrative expenses (G&A)

G&A expenses comprised KZT 22,942 million in the first half of 2026, reflecting an increase by 10% compared to the same period of 2025 (KZT 20,824 million in the first half of 2025) mostly attributable to the increase in payroll costs and consulting services.

Liquidity

The Group manages its liquidity requirements to ensure the continued availability of cash sufficient to meet its obligations on time, avoid unacceptable losses, and settle its financial obligations.

As at 30 June 2026 total cash and cash equivalents, including current term deposits, amounted to KZT 360,697 million, increasing by 4% compared to KZT 347,426 million as at 31 December 2025. The decrease by 38% in comparison to KZT 583,913 million as of 30 June 2025, was primarily due to a decrease in operating cash flow, as well as the repayment of long-term coupon bonds in the amount of USD 100 million in June 2026. More details and explanations are presented in the section 7.4 Cash Flows of the Operating and Financial Review.

The Group maintains undrawn borrowing facilities (payable within 12 months) as an additional liquidity buffer. These facilities are available to bridge short-term funding gaps caused by fluctuations in trade receivable receipts. As at 30 June 2026, the undrawn borrowing facilities amounted to KZT 74,762 million (USD 156 million) and consisted of:

  • KZT 73,493 million (USD 153 million) in corporate credit lines;
  • KZT 1,269 million (USD 2,6 million), a portion of the JV Budenovskoye’s loan from the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) available for drawdown.

Debt leverage ratios

The following table summarises the key ratios used by the Company’s Management to measure financial stability. Management targets a net debt to adjusted EBITDA of less than 1.0.

* For the purposes of Net debt/Adjusted EBITDA (coefficient) calculation Adjusted EBITDA for the six-month 2026 and 2025 was calculated for 12 months (the first half of the reporting period and the second half of the previous period). Adjusted EBITDA is calculated as Profit before tax – finance income + finance expense +/- Net FX loss/(gain) + Depreciation and amortisation + Impairment losses – reversal of impairment +/- one-off or unusual transactions.

Uranium segment production and sales metrics

2 KAP U3O8 sales volume (incl. in Group): includes only the total external sales of KAP HQ and THK. Intercompany transactions between KAP HQ and THK are not included. Yet, some part of Group U3O8 production may go to the production of EUP, fuel pellets and fuel assemblies (FA) at Ulba-FA LLP.

3 KAP inventory of finished goods (incl. in Group): includes the inventories of KAP HQ and THK.

4 KAP average realized price: the weighted average price per pound for the total external sales of KAP and THK. The pricing of intercompany transactions between KAP and THK are not included.

5 Source: UxC, TradeTech. Values provided represent the average of the uranium spot prices quoted at month end, and not the average of each weekly quoted spot price, as contract price terms generally refer to a month-end price.

Production on both 100% basis and attributable basis was higher in the first half of 2026 compared to the same period in 2025, due to a higher 2026 production plan in line with the Company’s guidance and Subsoil Use Agreements’ requirements for 2026.

First-half 2026 sales volumes at the Group level closely aligned with results from the corresponding period last year, reflecting stable overall performance. Sales variance at the KAP level (-13% year-on-year) was primarily driven by the timing and changes in the delivery schedule as per customer requests, rather than structural changes in KAP’s portfolio. Sales volumes can vary substantially each quarter, and quarterly sales volumes vary from year to year due to the aforementioned specifics of uranium business.

Consolidated Group inventory of finished goods (U3O8) as at 30 June 2026 amounted to 8,245 tonnes (21.4 Mlbs), a 23% year-on-year increase (6,677 tonnes / 17.4 Mlbs as at 30 June 2025). At the Kazatomprom HQ and THK level the inventory of finished U3O8 products increased by 15% to 6,200 tonnes (16.1 Mlbs) compared to 5,372 tonnes (14.0 Mlbs) as at 30 June 2025. The increase in inventory in the first half of 2026 was driven by higher production volume and lower sales volume in the first half of 2026 compared to the first half of 2025.

The 25% increase in the spot price during the reporting period affected the growth of Group’s and KAP’s average realized prices by 16% and 13%, respectively, compared to the same period in 2025. The Company’s current sales portfolio includes long-term contracts linked to uranium spot prices, however, certain deliveries under long-term contracts incorporate a portion of fixed pricing components, including price ceilings, which were negotiated during a different pricing environment.

In the uranium market, the trends in quarterly metrics and interim results are rarely representative of annual expectations; for annual expectations, please see the Company’s guidance metrics, as well as its price sensitivity table from section 10.1 Uranium sales price sensitivity analysis of the Operating and Financial Review.

Uranium segment costs and capital expenditures

* Excludes liquidation funds and closure costs. Note that in section 6.0 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES of the Operating and Financial Review total results include liquidation funds and closure cost.

C1 Cash cost (attributable) and All-in-sustaining cash costs (AISC) (attributable C1 + capital cost) for the first half of 2026 increased by 37% and 25%, respectively, in USD equivalent compared to the same period of 2025. The increase in C1 Cash cost was primarily due to an increase in the MET tax rate from 9% to 12.4% (see section 4.4 Taxation and Mineral Extraction Tax (“MET”) of the Operating and Financial Review), an increase in the cost of sulphuric acid (see section 4.5 Cost and availability of sulphuric acid of the Operating and Financial Review) as well as KZT appreciation against the USD.

The growth of AISC in USD terms is generally attributable to the increase in C1 Cash cost and KZT appreciation against the USD. Capital expenditures of mining entities (100% basis) in the first half of 2026 totalled KZT 160,954 million (compared to KZT 160,546 million in the first half of 2025). CAPEX primarily consists of expansion of wellfield development activities, costs of construction of wells and infrastructure, as well as purchase prices for materials, supplies, equipment and cost of drilling (see section 6.0 CAPITAL EXPENDITURES REVIEW of the Operating and Financial Review).

Health, safety and environment (HSE) results in the first half of 2026

The measures undertaken in the first half of 2026 to enhance the focus on safety awareness helped to prevent significant accidents (e.g. uncontrolled explosions, releases of hazardous substances and building destructions) within the framework of the Company’s operations.

The table below shows key labour protection and industrial safety metrics for the first half of 2026 and 2025:

1 Defined as uncontrolled explosions, emissions of dangerous substances, or destruction of buildings.

2 Lost-Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR) per million hours.

3 Defined as the impact of harmful or hazardous production factors on an employee during the performance of their professional duties or assigned tasks, resulting in an industrial accident, sudden health deterioration, or poisoning that leads to temporary or permanent disability or fatality.

The Group remains steadfast in its commitment to enhancing occupational health and safety standards across its operations. Despite these efforts, two accidents were recorded during the reporting period. The first accident resulted in a hand injury to an employee, and the second involved an employee sustaining thermal burns. Official investigations into both matters were carried out in compliance with the laws of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

A thorough investigation has been conducted for each case to identify root causes, leading to the development of corrective and preventive measures as well as the revision of existing procedures to mitigate the risk of future accidents. The findings from these investigations will be communicated across the entire Group to facilitate organisational learning and ensure that processes are adjusted accordingly. Moving forward, the Company remains dedicated to enhancing employee involvement and raising awareness regarding all matters of industrial safety.

Updated Guidance for 2026

1 Production volume U3O8 (tU) (100% basis): amounts represent the entirety of production of an entity in which the Company has an interest; it disregards that some portion of production may be attributable to the Group’s JV partners or other third-party shareholders. Precise actual production volumes remain subject to converter adjustments and adjustments for in-process material.

2 Production volume U3O8 (tU) (attributable basis): amounts represent the portion of production of an entity in which the Company has an interest, corresponding only to the size of such interest; it excludes the portion attributable to the JV partners or other third-party shareholders. For JV Inkai LLP, annual share of production on attributable basis is determined by the Implementation Agreement, concluded between participants of the entity. For JV Budenovskoye LLP, 100% of the 2025-2026 annual production is fully committed under an offtake contract at market-related terms.

3 Group sales volume: includes Kazatomprom’s sales and those of its consolidated subsidiaries (according to the definition of the Group provided on page one of this document). Group U3O8 sales volumes do not include other forms of uranium products (including, but not limited to, the sales of fuel pellets and enriched uranium).

4 KAP sales volume (included in Group sales volume): includes only the total external sales of KAP HQ and THK. Intercompany transactions between KAP HQ and THK are not included.

5 Revenue expectations are based on uranium prices taken at a single point in time from third-party sources. The prices used do not reflect any internal estimate from Kazatomprom, and 2026 revenue could be materially impacted by how actual uranium prices and exchange rates vary from the third-party estimates.

6 Total capital expenditures (100% basis): includes only capital expenditures of the mining entities, and significant CAPEX for investment and expansion projects. Excludes liquidation funds and closure costs. For 2026 includes development costs for mining infrastructure of JV Budenovskoye LLP, Ortalyk LLP (Zhalpak) and Kazatomprom-SaUran LLP (Inkai-3) for a total amount of approximately KZT 119 billion (previous Guidance for 2026 – KZT 121 billion).

* Note that the conversion of kgU to pounds U3O8 is 2.5998.

** For some JVs, the Company has a right to purchase additional volumes beyond its attributable share if the JV partner chooses to forgo its entitled share of production (beyond the production volume attributable to Company).

The Company reiterates its 2026 guidance in relation to production and sales volumes at this time.

The KZT appreciation against the USD in comparison to the originally budgeted figures has affected the Company’s financial results for the first half of 2026, as well as full-year expectations. Consequently, the Company is revising all of its 2026 financial guidance metrics. The Company is slightly decreasing its revenue and revenue from Group U3O8 sales expectations as a result of the KZT appreciation against the USD in comparison to the originally budgeted figures.

The same factor led to the revision of the guidance ranges for C1 cash cost (attributable basis) and All-in Sustaining cash cost (attributable C1 + capital cost) in USD terms, which were also affected by significant growth in purchase prices for materials, mainly sulphuric acid. Sulphuric acid price increase affects capital expenditures of mining entities (on 100% basis) because the Group capitalizes the costs of sulphuric acid used for initial acidification of wells. The 2026 guidance for capital expenditures is also affected by a higher volume and costs of wellfield preparation works, including extensive drilling and well construction in 2026 to support future production periods, the cost for which showed notable increase compared to initial forecasts.

Revenue, C1 cash cost (attributable basis) and All-in Sustaining cash cost (attributable C1 + capital cost) may vary from the ranges shown to the extent that the USD/KZT exchange rate and uranium spot price differ significantly from the Company’s assumptions.

Conference Call Notification – 2026 Half-Year Operating and Financial Review – 21 August 2026

Kazatomprom has scheduled a conference call to discuss its 2026 half-year operating and financial results, after they are released on 21 August 2026. The call will begin at 18:00 (GMT+5) / 14:00 (BST) / 09:00 (EDT). Following management remarks, an interactive English Q&A session will be held with the investment community.

For the English live webcast registration and conference call dial-in details, please visit the following link.

For the Russian (simultaneous translation) live webcast registration and corresponding dial-in details, please visit the following link.

A recording of the webcast will be available at www.kazatomprom.kz shortly after it concludes.

For more information, please contact:

Investor Relations Inquiries

Botagoz Muldagaliyeva, Director of Investor Relations

Tel: +7 (7172) 45 81 80 / 69

Email: ir@kazatomprom.kz


https://sightlineu3o8.com/2026/08/kazatomprom-announces-1h2026-financial-results/

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Macro

Berkshire CEO Greg Abel Is Sitting on Nearly $400 Billion in Cash. Here's How His Deal-Making Approach Differs From Warren Buffett's

Warren Buffett handed over the CEO reins of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRKA)(NYSE: BRKB) to Greg Abel at the start of 2026. Buffett gave his successor a big welcome gift: nearly $400 billion in cash on the company's balance sheet. That number was down to around $365 billion by the end of the second quarter, as some of it was allocated to public stocks. But Abel did make one notable acquisition: Taylor Morrison Home.

Taylor Morrison Home was a relatively small deal

In the grand scheme of things, the roughly $8.5 billion Berkshire Hathaway spent to buy Taylor Morrison Home was modest. For comparison, the company added $17 billion to its investment in Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG), the parent of Google, a publicly traded company. But the acquisition of Taylor Morrison Home is a far more telling move regarding how Greg Abel will manage the company. And it hints at an important change from the way Warren Buffett did things.

Warren Buffett speaking into microphones.

Image source: Getty Images.

In the press release announcing the Taylor Morrison Home acquisition, Abel stated, "Over time, we expect to unify our site-built homebuilding operations into a combined platform enabling us to deliver the dream of homeownership to more Americans." Essentially, Abel is telegraphing a plan to integrate the company's housing businesses into one business unit. That is probably a good idea, but that type of integration isn't something Buffett has historically focused on.

Buffett was a hands-off manager, buying companies and letting the leadership continue to operate them as they saw fit. As long as there weren't any big problems and he trusted the leadership team in place, Buffett was content to watch from the sidelines. That resulted in overlapping businesses. The Taylor Morrison Home deal suggests Abel sees the overlaps as an opportunity.

A small direction change for Berkshire Hathaway

It is highly unlikely that Abel will make drastic changes to how Berkshire Hathaway operates. However, the goal of merging similar businesses into one business unit could help improve the company's financial performance. This type of internal change will be a new focus, even though it isn't likely to be a huge shift. But given the number of companies that Berkshire Hathaway owns, even this small shift could have significant positive long-term implications for investors. Notably, it could also lead to more targeted deal-making as the company seeks bolt-on acquisitions that enhance its existing operations, as Taylor Morrison Home did.


https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/berkshire-ceo-greg-abel-sitting-153500037.html

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Water Is Becoming an AI Bottleneck

Reading and Podcast Picks is a collection of what we’ve been reading and listening to over the last week or so about energy topics.

From Leila Saidane for The Texas Tribune

Texans, legislators debate transmission lines at hearing | Texas Tribune

“Republican legislators, Democratic statewide candidates, landowners from rural Texas and environmentalists” alike joined together Wednesday to protest the buildout of 765-kV lines across the state.

At the protest and nine-hour hearing that followed, lawmakers heard a variety of recommendations, including from local officials arguing for more local control of data center proposals and more time to reform the process behind approving transmission lines across Texas. Though discussed in separate hearings, landowners and protesters said the issues are connected… Regulators have already been working through a new way to decide how much of the cost of building new transmission lines needs to be paid for by individuals and how much needs to be paid for by companies such as data centers. Experts said they believe the new system will lower the burden on residential consumers relative to the industrial groups.

Data-Center Backlash Leads to New Land Rush in Texas Oil Patch | The Wall Street Journal

While the data center protests rage, investors converge on the Permian Basin to build data centers powered by cheap natural gas.

“A lot of places you see all over the country they’re worried about water, they’re worried about power, they’re worried about transmission, and the Permian has all of those things in spades,” said EagleRock Chief Executive Greg Pipkin Jr.

Dallas-Fort Worth Dethrones Virginia as the World’s Top Data Center Market | Dallas Innovates

Two reports show growth in North Texas data centers despite political concerns about the industry.

Boasting five highly ranked data center markets, Texas is experiencing an explosion of data center activity. Long anchored by the DFW market, “the state is growing at a pace that could soon bring total installed capacity in line with — and potentially beyond — that of Virginia,” the Cushman & Wakefield report said.

A new report from commercial real estate services provider JLL takes a slightly different view, anointing Texas the top data center market in North America. Texas eclipsed longtime frontrunner Virginia based on the level of existing and under-construction data center inventory in the state as measured by gigawatt capacity. A gigawatt equals 1 billion watts.


https://www.texasenergyandpower.com/p/bipartisan-energy-politics-reading

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Can U.S. Sanctions on Iran Be an “Act of War” Under International Law?

Introduction

On 23 August 2026, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council warned that countries participating in or supporting the expanding U.S. economic campaign against Iran could be treated as committing an “act of war” (Reuters, 2026). The Iran sanctions “act of war” claim raises a narrower legal question than the political language suggests: can non-forcible economic sanctions amount to a use of force or an armed attack under international law, and could they provide Iran with a legal basis for military action?

“Act of war” is not the controlling legal category under the United Nations Charter. Article 2(4) prohibits the threat or use of force in international relations, while Article 51 preserves the inherent right of self-defense if an armed attack occurs (United Nations, 1945). An economic measure may be coercive, economically damaging, or internationally wrongful without amounting to either a use of force or an armed attack.

The question arises against the unusual background of an existing international armed conflict between the United States and Iran in 2026. U.S. military operations and the naval blockade directed at Iranian shipping must be kept legally distinct from asset freezes, banking restrictions, trade prohibitions, and secondary sanctions (Reuters, 2026). The fact that armed hostilities already exist does not convert every economic measure adopted during the conflict into an armed attack.

The prevailing interpretation of the Charter does not generally classify non-forcible economic sanctions as armed force, and established international law provides no clear basis for treating ordinary sanctions, standing alone, as an armed attack capable of triggering Article 51. The International Court of Justice has consistently distinguished among prohibited intervention, use of force, and armed attack rather than treating all forms of coercion as legally equivalent (ICJ, 1986). That distinction leaves open a separate question: particular sanctions may still violate other international obligations.

Those possible violations belong to different areas of law. Sanctions may raise issues under the customary prohibition of intervention, rules governing jurisdiction, treaty obligations, or the law of State responsibility. Secondary sanctions can create additional disputes where foreign banks, companies, or governments are pressured to restrict otherwise lawful dealings with Iran. None of those forms of possible wrongfulness automatically establishes an armed attack.

The warning to third countries presents the most difficult extension of the claim. A State that independently adopts restrictions against Iran, a government that assists another State in enforcing unlawful measures, and a private company that withdraws from Iranian commerce for commercial reasons do not occupy the same legal position. International responsibility, participation in an armed conflict, and a possible Iranian right to use force in self-defense must each be assessed under separate legal rules.

1. U.S. Sanctions on Iran and the “Act of War” Claim

The August 2026 warning that participation in the U.S. economic campaign could be treated as an “act of war” uses language with considerable political weight, but the phrase does not establish an autonomous legal category under the United Nations Charter. Contemporary international law asks more specific questions: has a State threatened or used force, has an armed attack occurred, has an act of aggression been committed, or has conduct brought international humanitarian law into operation? A government’s description of economic pressure as warfare cannot answer those questions by itself.

That position reflects the movement away from the older legal importance attached to formally declared war. Common Article 2 of the 1949 Geneva Conventions applies not only to declared war but also to any other armed conflict arising between High Contracting Parties, even where one party does not recognize the existence of a state of war. Contemporary IHL accordingly bases the existence of an international armed conflict on the objective resort to armed force between States rather than the terminology chosen by their governments (Geneva Conventions, 1949, common art. 2; ICRC, 2025).

The August warning is significant because it suggests consequences for States whose involvement may be economic rather than military. Its legal validity cannot rest on the expression “act of war.” The relevant questions are whether the economic measures themselves fall within the Charter rules on force and self-defense, and whether a third State’s involvement could independently satisfy those rules.

1.1 Use of force, armed attack, and aggression

Article 2(4) of the UN Charter requires Member States to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of another State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations. Article 51 addresses the right of individual or collective self-defense “if an armed attack occurs” (United Nations, 1945). In the jurisprudence of the International Court of Justice, these concepts are not interchangeable. The Court has distinguished the most grave forms of the use of force, which constitute armed attacks, from less grave forcible conduct (ICJ, 1986, para. 191).

That distinction is influential but not wholly uncontested in State practice. The United States, for example, has rejected the proposition that international law imposes a separate minimum-gravity threshold before an unlawful use of force can potentially trigger self-defense (U.S. Department of State, 2012). The disagreement concerns the relationship between unlawful force and armed attack; it does not amount to a U.S. position that ordinary economic sanctions themselves constitute armed force.

Aggression is a related but separate concept. General Assembly Resolution 3314 defines aggression in terms of the use of armed force by one State against another and identifies invasion, bombardment, attacks by armed forces, and blockade among the listed examples (UN General Assembly, 1974). Resolution 3314 is a non-binding General Assembly instrument intended to assist in identifying acts of aggression, although the ICJ has recognized parts of it, including Article 3(g), as reflecting customary international law (ICJ, 1986, para. 195). The list is not exhaustive, but Resolution 3314 does not provide a basis for treating an ordinary economic sanction, without an armed component, as aggression. The individual crime of aggression under Article 8 bis of the Rome Statute raises a distinct question of criminal responsibility and does not determine whether sanctions trigger Article 51.

International humanitarian law serves another function. The existence of an international armed conflict depends on interstate armed force, not on a formal declaration of war or on the legality of the initial resort to force. Current hostilities between the United States and Iran in 2026 satisfy that factual setting, while their legal classification follows from Common Article 2 rather than political descriptions of the relationship (Reuters, 2026a; Geneva Conventions, 1949, common art. 2; ICRC, 2025). The sanctions are consequently not the event that creates the existing armed conflict. The question here is whether they provide a separate legal basis for the use of force, particularly against States involved only in economic measures.

2. Can Economic Sanctions Be a Use of Force?

The prevailing interpretation of Article 2(4) does not treat ordinary economic pressure as a use of force. The Charter provision itself refers simply to “force,” rather than expressly to “armed force,” and efforts to give the term a broader economic meaning have a long history. At the San Francisco Conference, Brazil proposed language that would have extended the prohibition to the threat or use of economic measures in a manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations. That proposal was not adopted (UNCIO, 1945).

The rejection of the Brazilian proposal is relevant, but its interpretive significance should not be exaggerated. Some commentators have treated the drafting history as support for confining Article 2(4) to armed force, while others have argued that the failure of an amendment does not conclusively define the scope of the provision. Later disputes over economic coercion confirm that States have not always agreed on how far Charter protections should reach (Batinga, 2024). The prevailing legal position nonetheless continues to distinguish economic coercion from armed force.

The structure of Chapter VII reinforces that distinction. Article 41 authorizes the Security Council to take measures “not involving the use of armed force” and expressly includes complete or partial interruption of economic relations. Article 42 separately authorizes action by air, sea, or land forces when Article 41 measures would be inadequate (United Nations, 1945). Within the Charter’s own architecture, interruption of economic relations and armed enforcement are treated as different forms of action.

Article 41 does not establish that unilateral U.S. sanctions are lawful. Security Council measures adopted under Chapter VII derive their authority from the Charter, whereas restrictions imposed by a single State must be assessed against whatever international obligations bind that State. Article 41 is relevant here for a narrower reason: it provides strong contextual evidence that economic restrictions are not ordinarily classified as armed force merely because they are coercive.

International law has nonetheless developed substantial objections to economic pressure outside Article 2(4). Under the non-intervention principle contained in the Friendly Relations Declaration, no State may use economic, political, or other measures to coerce another State in order to obtain the subordination of its sovereign rights or advantages of any kind (UN General Assembly, 1970). The significance of such language lies in the law of intervention and economic coercion, not in a reclassification of economic pressure as armed force.

More recent scholarship has tested the orthodox distinction by focusing on consequences rather than instruments. Severe restrictions on finance, trade, technology, energy, or access to essential goods can cause profound economic and humanitarian effects. An effects-based approach, influenced partly by debates concerning cyber operations and other forms of non-kinetic coercion, asks whether exceptionally destructive economic conduct should remain categorically outside Article 2(4) (Batinga, 2024). Such arguments expose genuine difficulties in the existing framework, but they have not yet generated sufficiently consistent State practice and opinio juris to establish economic sanctions, as such, as a use of force under current international law.

The present U.S.-Iran conflict also requires a strict distinction between economic sanctions and military action. U.S. financial restrictions operate alongside a naval blockade and other military measures reported as continuing in August 2026 (Reuters, 2026b). An armed blockade, forcible interdiction, seizure enforced by military power, or kinetic strike raises legal questions that an asset freeze, banking prohibition, or trade restriction does not. Resolution 3314 includes the blockade of a State’s ports or coasts by another State’s armed forces among the acts capable of constituting aggression (UN General Assembly, 1974, art. 3(c)), but the legality and classification of any particular contemporary blockade depend on the surrounding facts and any legal justification advanced for it. A conclusion about non-forcible sanctions cannot decide those separate questions.

3. Can Sanctions Amount to an Armed Attack?

The right of self-defense presents an even more demanding question. In the ICJ’s jurisprudence, Article 51 is not triggered by every form of coercion or even by every unlawful use of force. In Military and Paramilitary Activities in and against Nicaragua, the Court distinguished the “most grave forms” of force constituting armed attacks from less grave uses of force. It also held that the sending of armed bands could qualify as an armed attack where the scale and effects of their acts would have produced the same classification had regular armed forces carried them out (ICJ, 1986, paras. 191, 195).

The Court drew further distinctions concerning assistance to armed groups. The provision of weapons or logistical support to rebels did not, without more, constitute an armed attack by the assisting State, although such support could implicate the prohibitions on intervention or the use of force (ICJ, 1986, para. 195). This reasoning concerns armed and military assistance. It does not create a general formula under which any harmful measure can be converted into an armed attack merely by comparing its consequences with those of military violence.

Nicaragua also dealt separately with economic measures adopted by the United States. Nicaragua complained of the termination of economic assistance, a substantial reduction in its sugar quota, and a trade embargo. The Court concluded that it was unable, on the circumstances before it, to regard the economic actions complained of as a breach of the customary principle of non-intervention (ICJ, 1986, para. 245). That passage does not establish that economic coercion can never violate non-intervention, nor did the Court use it to decide whether economic sanctions could constitute an armed attack. Nicaragua consequently provides no authority for treating those measures as an Article 51 attack.

Later decisions confirm the ICJ’s careful approach to claims of self-defense. In Oil Platforms, the United States had to establish that incidents attributable to Iran amounted to armed attacks and that its response satisfied the requirements of necessity and proportionality. The Court found deficiencies in the evidence attributing important incidents to Iran and concluded that the relevant attacks, considered individually or cumulatively, did not establish the armed attack necessary to sustain the U.S. defense (ICJ, 2003, paras. 51, 64, 72). The dispute involved mines, attacks on vessels, and military operations, not economic sanctions.

In Armed Activities on the Territory of the Congo, Uganda relied on attacks by the Allied Democratic Forces as part of its justification for military action in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The Court found insufficient evidence that the attacks were attributable to the DRC and held that the legal and factual circumstances required for Uganda’s exercise of self-defense against the DRC were absent. It expressly left unresolved broader questions concerning self-defense against large-scale attacks by irregular forces (ICJ, 2005, paras. 146–147). The judgment reinforces the importance of identifying the legally relevant attack and responsibility for it before Article 51 can be invoked.

The ICJ’s gravity distinction is not universally accepted. The United States has maintained that self-defense may potentially be available against any unlawful use of force and has rejected a rigid additional gravity requirement (U.S. Department of State, 2012). Even on that broader position, however, the starting point remains a use of force. It does not supply an argument that non-forcible banking restrictions, asset freezes, or trade sanctions become armed attacks because their economic consequences are severe.

A harder theoretical question arises where economic restrictions inflict catastrophic effects. Comprehensive sanctions can impair access to finance, trade, technology, medicines, food, or other essential goods, and legal scholarship has questioned whether an exclusively instrument-based conception of armed force adequately addresses such harm. Effects-based theories offer one possible route toward a different rule, but present international law has not accepted the proposition that economic sanctions without an armed component constitute an armed attack solely because of their severity.

That conclusion is narrower than a judgment that the sanctions are lawful. A particular measure may breach a treaty obligation, violate the prohibition of intervention, exceed permissible jurisdiction, infringe another international obligation, or fail to meet the conditions governing countermeasures. Those forms of wrongfulness can produce State responsibility and may permit non-forcible legal responses. They do not, without a qualifying armed attack, create an independent right to answer economic pressure with military force. For the Iran sanctions “act of war” claim, the distinction between an internationally wrongful economic measure and an armed attack remains central.

4. If Sanctions Are Unlawful, Which Rule Is Breached?

International law contains no single rule under which all unilateral sanctions are lawful or unlawful. Much depends on the measure itself: whether it breaches an obligation owed to the target State, rests on a permissible jurisdictional basis, interferes coercively with matters reserved to sovereign choice, or constitutes conduct that would otherwise be unlawful but is justified as a countermeasure.

Iran’s litigation against the United States illustrates the importance of identifying the particular obligation involved. The 1955 Treaty of Amity once supplied a treaty basis for several Iranian claims. The United States gave notice of termination on 3 October 2018, and Article XXIII(3) provided that termination would take effect one year later. The Treaty consequently ceased to bind the parties prospectively on 3 October 2019.

That did not extinguish disputes concerning earlier conduct. In 2018, the ICJ indicated binding provisional measures requiring the United States to remove impediments affecting medicines, food and agricultural products, and goods necessary for civil-aviation safety (ICJ, 2018). In 2021, the Court rejected U.S. preliminary objections in Iran’s challenge to sanctions reimposed in 2018, including objections concerning measures affecting trade with third countries, but it did not decide the merits of those sanctions (ICJ, 2021). No merits judgment is presently listed in that case.

The 2023 judgment in Certain Iranian Assets concerned a different dispute. The Court found violations of Articles III(1), IV(1), IV(2), and X(1) of the Treaty in relation to certain Iranian companies and their property, while finding that it lacked jurisdiction over Iran’s claims concerning Bank Markazi under several Treaty provisions (ICJ, 2023). The decision does not establish a general rule that sanctions against Iran are unlawful; it demonstrates instead that measures associated with economic pressure may breach specific obligations where those obligations apply.

4.1 Non-intervention and economic coercion

The customary prohibition of intervention offers a stronger doctrinal route for challenging coercive economic measures than the claim that sanctions are armed force. In Nicaragua, the ICJ held that States are entitled to decide freely matters such as their political, economic, social, and cultural systems and the formulation of foreign policy. Intervention becomes unlawful when coercive methods are directed at those protected choices (ICJ, 1986, para. 205).

Economic pressure does not automatically satisfy that test. The Court separately considered the termination of U.S. economic aid, the reduction of Nicaragua’s sugar quota, and the trade embargo, concluding that it was unable on the facts before it to regard those measures as breaches of the customary non-intervention principle (ICJ, 1986, para. 245). That was a fact-specific finding, not a ruling that economic coercion is categorically incapable of becoming prohibited intervention.

UN declarations reflect wider opposition to coercive economic practices. The 1965 Declaration on the Inadmissibility of Intervention and the 1970 Friendly Relations Declaration condemn economic or political measures used to compel another State to subordinate the exercise of its sovereign rights (UN General Assembly, 1965; UN General Assembly, 1970). These resolutions are non-binding. They may contribute evidence relevant to customary law, but continuing disagreement in State practice prevents them from being treated as establishing a settled prohibition of all unilateral sanctions.

4.2 Retorsion, countermeasures, and secondary sanctions

Many unfriendly economic measures remain lawful because they constitute retorsion. A State generally does not need a special international-law justification to reduce discretionary assistance, decline certain commercial relations, or adopt another measure that breaches no obligation owed to the affected State.

Countermeasures are different. The ILC Articles on State Responsibility are not themselves a treaty, although many of their provisions codify or reflect customary international law. Under Articles 49–53, countermeasures respond to a prior internationally wrongful act and involve temporary non-performance of obligations toward the responsible State for the purpose of inducing compliance. They are subject to proportionality and procedural limits and are not legitimate merely because a government describes its sanctions as retaliatory measures (ILC, 2001).

Secondary sanctions raise additional issues because they seek to influence conduct beyond the sanctioning State’s territory. Measures threatening foreign banks, shipping companies, insurers, or other firms with exclusion from U.S. markets may generate disputes over jurisdiction, sovereignty, enforcement, and non-intervention. The ICJ’s 2021 preliminary-objections judgment confirmed that the involvement of third-country trade did not automatically place Iran’s claims outside the Treaty of Amity, but the Court did not rule that secondary sanctions as a category are unlawful (ICJ, 2021).

5. Third States Supporting U.S. Sanctions

The warning directed at countries supporting the U.S. economic campaign creates a distinct legal problem. A State that independently imposes restrictions on Iran is not legally equivalent to one implementing a binding Security Council decision, assisting U.S. enforcement, or merely permitting domestic companies to end Iranian transactions. Each State’s conduct must be assessed against the obligations binding upon it.

Private commercial decisions also require care. A bank or shipping company does not become an organ of its home State merely because it complies with U.S. sanctions. Attribution depends on the applicable rules, including whether the entity exercises governmental authority or acts under State direction or control. The State may nevertheless incur responsibility for its own legislation, instructions, or enforcement even where the private company’s conduct itself is not attributable to it (ILC, 2001, arts. 4, 5, 8).

Coordinated sanctions by multiple governments do not automatically resolve the question either. Article 54 of the ILC Articles deliberately leaves open the position of measures taken by States other than an injured State in response to breaches of obligations protecting collective interests. It does not itself authorize collective countermeasures; the ILC Commentary described relevant State practice as limited and still developing (ILC, 2001).

5.1 Responsibility for aiding or assisting sanctions

Article 16 of the ILC Articles addresses a different route to responsibility: one State may incur responsibility by aiding or assisting another State in the commission of an internationally wrongful act. The ICJ has recognized the rule reflected in Article 16 as customary international law (ICJ, 2007, para. 420).

Several conditions limit its reach. The assisted conduct must itself be internationally wrongful, and the assisting State must know the circumstances making that conduct wrongful. Article 16 also requires that the underlying act would be wrongful if committed by the assisting State itself. The ILC Commentary adds that assistance must actually facilitate the wrongful act and describes it as being provided with a view to facilitating that conduct (ILC, 2001). The precise role of intent beyond the knowledge requirement remains debated and should not be treated as conclusively settled.

Participation in a sanctions coalition is consequently insufficient by itself. A third State could also incur responsibility independently if its own asset freeze, trade restriction, or financial measure breaches an obligation binding upon it. That form of responsibility does not depend on Article 16 at all.

5.2 Sanctions and participation in armed conflict

Responsibility for an economic measure does not determine whether a State has become a party to an armed conflict. In an international armed conflict, the central criterion is resort to armed force between States. Economic sanctions, restrictions on banking, or commercial disengagement do not amount to such a resort merely because they assist one belligerent economically.

Even more direct support does not automatically produce party status. The ICRC states that supplying weapons or military equipment alone does not make a State a party to an armed conflict. In an existing IAC, a supporting State becomes a party where it itself resorts to armed force against another belligerent, including through effective involvement in military operations against that State (ICRC, 2024).

Economic participation falls further from that threshold. A State does not become a party to the U.S.-Iran conflict merely by adopting sanctions against Iran. Nor would responsibility for an unlawful economic measure, standing alone, give Iran a right to attack that State’s territory, armed forces, or civilian infrastructure.

6. What Iran May Lawfully Do in Response

If a particular sanction breaches an international obligation owed to Iran, Iran may have responses available without resorting to force. Depending on the circumstances, these could include diplomatic protest, adjudication or arbitration where jurisdiction exists, lawful retorsion, or countermeasures satisfying the requirements of State responsibility.

Forcible reprisals stand on a different footing. Article 50 of the ILC Articles provides that countermeasures may not affect the obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force contained in the UN Charter (ILC, 2001, art. 50). The Friendly Relations Declaration likewise requires States to refrain from reprisals involving force, and Nicaragua rejected the proposition that conduct falling below the armed-attack threshold could justify forcible collective countermeasures (UN General Assembly, 1970; ICJ, 1986).

Iran would consequently need an independent Article 51 basis for military self-defense. A sanction that violates a treaty, amounts to prohibited intervention, or constitutes another internationally wrongful act does not become an armed attack for that reason alone. The requirements governing self-defense—including the existence of a qualifying attack, necessity, and proportionality—remain separate.

The existing U.S.-Iran international armed conflict requires a narrow formulation of this conclusion. Current hostilities may give rise to other questions concerning the lawful use of force that are not determined by the sanctions dispute (Reuters, 2026). The point established here is only that non-forcible economic sanctions do not create an additional Article 51 entitlement merely because they are characterized as an “act of war.”

For third States involved exclusively in economic measures, the distinction is sharper. Sanctions participation alone does not make them parties to the existing conflict or authorize Iranian military action against them. A separate resort to armed force by such a State would raise a different legal question.

Iran’s restrictions on, and threats concerning, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz also belong to a separate legal framework. Measures affecting commercial navigation may engage the law of the sea, jus ad bellum, and, where an armed conflict applies, IHL. They cannot simply be treated as interchangeable economic countermeasures to U.S. sanctions.

Conclusion

Calling U.S. sanctions on Iran an “act of war” does not give that phrase an operative legal effect under the UN Charter. Contemporary international law asks whether conduct constitutes a use of force and, for Article 51 self-defense, whether an armed attack has occurred. Non-forcible economic sanctions are not presently recognized as crossing those thresholds merely because their economic consequences are severe.

That conclusion says nothing categorical about the legality of every U.S. restriction. Individual sanctions may breach treaty obligations, exceed permissible jurisdiction, constitute prohibited intervention, or fail to meet the requirements governing countermeasures. Third-State participation can also raise independent questions of responsibility, particularly where another government adopts its own restrictions or knowingly assists conduct that is itself internationally wrongful.

What does not follow is a right to military retaliation. Economic participation alone does not make another State a party to the U.S.-Iran armed conflict, and an unlawful sanction does not automatically become an armed attack. Scholarly arguments for treating exceptionally destructive economic coercion more like force remain significant, but they have not displaced that distinction in current international law.


https://www.diplomacyandlaw.com/post/can-u-s-sanctions-on-iran-be-an-act-of-war-under-international-law

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Canada Walks From U.S. Trade Negotiations

Donald Trump spent Friday afternoon telling reporters trade talks with Canada were "moving along." Hours later, they were over - and not because Washington ended them.

Mark Carney did. He suspended negotiations, sent Canada's negotiators home the same night, and announced Canada would match U.S. tariffs dollar for dollar. There's no indication the administration saw it coming. Trump's own comments hours before the deadline - "I think so. We'll see" - read now like a White House that expected the leverage of a deadline to work in its favor, the way it usually does. It didn't.

A Miscalculation, Not Just a Missed Deal

Carney's statement laid out exactly why he pulled out: "last-minute changes in the U.S. proposed terms were unfair, uneconomic, and called into question the reliability of any deal." Washington moved the terms at the eleventh hour, evidently expecting Canada to absorb it and keep negotiating, the way it has through most of this 18-month standoff. Instead, Carney ended the relationship on the spot - "this evening," in his words - and retaliated immediately rather than waiting to see what Washington would do next.

That's the miscalculation worth sitting with: an administration that has spent a year and a half pushing Canada toward concessions just watched its counterpart walk away first, with the tariffs already loaded and ready to fire back.

Now Washington Has to React

For the first time in this trade fight, the U.S. is the one playing catch-up. Carney's move puts the White House in a position it hasn't been in with Canada before - reacting to an opponent's decision instead of setting the terms. Whatever Washington does next, from here it looks like a response to Carney, not the other way around.

The Timing Couldn't Be Worse for the U.S. Economy

This escalation lands at a genuinely fragile moment for American growth. U.S. GDP slowed to just 1.5% in the second quarter, down from 2.1% in the first, as a widening trade deficit and rising energy costs weighed on output. Core inflation has been running at 3.3% to 3.4%, well above the Fed's target, and the conflict with Iran has already pushed gas and energy prices sharply higher, feeding directly into that inflation problem. The Federal Reserve's own minutes flagged persistent inflation risk and the added complication from Middle East tensions.

Add a new, self-inflicted trade fight with one of America's largest trading partners to that mix, and the math gets harder. Tariffs raise costs for the businesses and consumers who rely on cross-border goods, at the exact moment the U.S. economy is already absorbing elevated energy prices and slowing growth. This isn't a fight the U.S. economy needed right now - and it's a fight Washington didn't choose the timing of.

And it will hurt, businesses shutting down, job losses in the thousands and the Canadian grassroots campaign of not buying American booze and Canadians not travelling to the U.S. already devastated by those decisions will get worse.

What Happens Now

Canada's negotiators are already home. The matching tariffs are already in motion. And the administration that spent Friday afternoon sounding confident a deal was close now has to decide how to respond to a prime minister who didn't wait around to find out.

American Pulse    21 Aug 26

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Oil and Gas

Uganda’s 230,000-Barrel Oil Plan Nears Export Stage

HOIMA, Uganda — Uganda’s planned 230,000-barrel-a-day oil industry moved closer to production after the East African Crude Oil Pipeline reached 92% completion and maintained a target of receiving its first crude before the end of 2026.

The progress was reported during a two-day inspection of oil projects in the Albertine Graben by Petroleum Authority of Uganda Executive Director Ernest Rubondo.

“The project is now 92% complete and remains on track to receive first crude oil before the end of 2026,” PAU said on Saturday after Rubondo visited Pump Station One in Hoima.

The station is where crude from the Tilenga and Kingfisher developments will enter the heated export pipeline for transportation to Tanzania’s Indian Ocean port of Tanga.

Rubondo said the inspection was intended to evaluate progress towards First Oil and establish whether production, power and transportation infrastructure would be ready within the government’s timeline.

Tilenga, operated by TotalEnergies SE, is designed to produce as much as 190,000 barrels a day from six fields.

Cnooc Ltd.’s Kingfisher project is expected to add 40,000 barrels daily, bringing Uganda’s planned peak production to about 230,000 barrels a day. 

EACOP, the outlet for most of that production, will have capacity to transport as much as 246,000 barrels a day.

The buried, insulated pipeline stretches 1,443 kilometres from Hoima to Tanga, including 296 kilometres in Uganda and 1,147 kilometres in Tanzania.

Uganda’s crude is waxy and must be maintained above 50 degrees Celsius during transportation, making reliable electricity supplies critical to the pipeline’s operation.

Rubondo also inspected the Kabalega Sub-Power Station, which is being developed to supply electricity to EACOP facilities.

Project officials told ChimpReports that the station remained on schedule to begin supplying power by October 2026.

Completion of the power station, upstream processing facilities and the pipeline will determine whether Uganda meets its latest First Oil schedule.

PAU said EACOP had created about 12,000 jobs, compared with an initial target of 7,500. The project has also constructed and handed over 520 replacement houses to affected households and planted more than 500,000 trees.

“The socio-economic achievements have surpassed several of the initial targets,” the authority said.

The EACOP Academy has enrolled 141 students as part of efforts to prepare a local technical workforce for the petroleum industry.

On the second day of the inspection, Rubondo is expected to visit the Tilenga project in Buliisa and Nwoya districts.

The development involves about 420 wells drilled from 29 locations and a central processing facility at Kasenyi.

PAU did not publish a verbatim statement from Rubondo with the field update; his position is therefore reported indirectly to avoid attributing words he was not recorded as saying.


https://chimpreports.com/ugandas-230000-barrel-oil-plan-nears-export-stage/

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Pipelines, Chokepoints, and the New Geopolitical Map

Recorded August 20th, 2026 and August 11th, 2026

In this special crossover episode of the PetroNerds Podcast, Trisha Curtis, CEO of PetroNerds and host of the PetroNerds podcast, sits down with energy analysts David Blackmon and Stu Turley for a wide-ranging discussion about oil prices, record U.S. production, global energy security, refining constraints, strategic petroleum inventories, and the geopolitical transformation of global oil flows.

Key Takeaways

  • Stable oil prices do not mean the physical petroleum market is calm.
  • Record U.S. production, particularly from the Permian Basin, has helped prevent a sustained global price shock.
  • Global markets are adapting through alternative trade routes, pipelines, inventory draws, tanker shifts, and refinery adjustments.
  • Refining constraints and transportation risks increasingly influence fuel availability and regional prices.
  • Market stress may appear in shipping rates, insurance costs, crude differentials, inventories, and refinery margins before reaching WTI or Brent prices.

Major conflicts and disruptions are hitting nearly every part of the global petroleum system. Iranian and Russian barrels are moving through alternative trading networks. Tankers and energy infrastructure are under attack. The Red Sea remains vulnerable. Russian refineries have been targeted. The Strait of Hormuz continues to sit at the center of the global energy-security debate.

Yet the oil market has not experienced the sustained price shock that many analysts expected.

Why?

Trisha explains that the answer begins with the strength of U.S. oil production, particularly the Permian Basin, but it does not end there. Global oil markets have adapted through alternative supply routes, pipeline systems, inventory draws, changes in tanker movements, refinery adjustments, and the continued availability of U.S. crude oil and petroleum-product exports.

The conversation also examines an increasingly important distinction: a stable benchmark oil price does not necessarily mean that the physical oil market is calm. Stress can appear in tanker rates, war-risk insurance, crude differentials, delivery premiums, refinery margins, inventories, and regional gasoline and diesel prices without being fully reflected in headline WTI or Brent prices.

This episode was originally recorded as a crossover discussion with David Blackmon and Stu Turley and is presented here as PetroNerds Podcast Episode 163.


https://petronerds.com/pipelines-chokepoints-and-the-new-geopolitical-map/

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Diesel Crisis Threatens to Outlast the Middle East War

By Irina Slav - Aug 23, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT

  • The global fuel squeeze is worsening despite sub-$100 crude, with European diesel prices up 70% since the war began and U.S. diesel cracks hitting record highs.
  • Refining capacity has become the critical bottleneck, as Middle Eastern outages and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries remove millions of barrels of fuel production.
  • Shrinking inventories could prolong the crisis for months, driving higher diesel prices and intensifying inflation risks worldwide, particularly as winter approaches.

The outlook for the Middle East war remains grim, the U.S. just threatened Iran with the “toughest sanctions in history,” and the world is running out of stored fuels. To make matters worse, refining capacity is down considerably, and even if the outlook for the war suddenly changed and the U.S. and Iran made peace, the fuel squeeze will last for months—and so will its adverse effects on the global economy.

Watching crude oil prices, one would think everything is under control. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate are below $100 per barrel, even if they are both up by around $20 per barrel from pre-war levels. Still, the price rise in crude oil is much more moderate than the inflation in fuel prices. Diesel in Europe, for instance, is up by 70% from pre-war levels, as reported by Reuters’ Ron Bousso this week.

A separate Reuters report showed that diesel now costs more in Europe than jet fuel. This is the first time in over a year that the price difference between the two fuels is in favor of diesel, the publication noted, citing data from LSEG. The diesel crack spread in the United States hit triple digits earlier this week, for the first time ever. The premium over crude prices jumped to as high as $102 per barrel on Monday, before easing slightly to about $100 a barrel on Tuesday. 

Refinery margins are running at record highs across the world as the energy crisis unfolds. The first aspect of this crisis is the tighter supply of crude from the Middle East, which should be obvious enough since the media has been covering the topic on a daily basis for over six months. Yet there has also been refinery damage in the Middle East. In fact, per the International Energy Agency, as much as a fifth of that refining capacity, totaling some 9.6 million barrels daily, has been knocked out by hostilities.

In addition to the Middle East crisis, the relentless drone strike barrage by Ukrainian forces against Russian refineries has led to fuel shortages and a ban on exports to secure more domestic supply. As a result, the world’s second-largest diesel exporter is closed for business, leaving the market for the “workhorse” fuel of the economy even tighter—and there are not enough refineries outside the Middle East and Russia to handle demand.

That demand, however, remains substantial, so the United States, which has been insulated from the more direct effects of the two hot wars, has been ramping up fuel exports, with those hitting an all-time weekly average high of 1.9 million barrels daily. However, these exports have been driven this high not only by higher-than-usual refinery utilization rates. These rates have been supplemented by inventory draws, and that may become a problem.

“Those flows are drawing down already tight U.S. inventories, the only major hub open for business, creating a global competition for fuel that is pushing diesel cracks back toward record seasonal highs,” Bank of America analysts warned in a note earlier this week, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal. The situation is especially serious in diesel because, as Goldman Sachs analysts warned also this month, stocks of the fuel globally were already tight before the war in the Middle East began.

What this means is that inflation risks have surged and that they may well remain elevated for years, with global refinery runs in the second quarter of the year at 5.1 million barrels daily below last year’s levels, according to IEA data cited by Reuters’ Bousso. Yet demand for fuels fell by some 4 million barrels daily, which left a gap of over 1 million barrels daily—and let us not forget that the demand destruction was not voluntary. It was forced, and it was forced by soaring prices. In other words, demand destruction would not be very effective as protection against inflation.

According to Bousso, the real energy crunch is only just starting. One could argue it started in March, but it took more time to become evident because it was a creeping crisis rather than a flashy, sudden event. That it will get worse still is hard to argue. “Europe has a tremendous diesel problem,” Eugene Lindell, head of refined products at consultancy FGE NexantECA, toldBloomberg earlier this month. “It will get ugly in the sense that you will probably see extremely high flat prices.”

It will not get ugly only in Europe. The whole world uses diesel, and a lot of it—and as the weather gets colder in the northern hemisphere, demand for diesel rises, both for transport and for heating. Inflation is already on the rise: a 3.4% consumer price jump for the U.S. and eurozone prices up 2.9%, both on the back of higher energy costs, tell a short but compelling story about energy security. That may just be the beginning of the ripple effect of the wars on the world.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Diesel-Crisis-Threatens-to-Outlast-the-Middle-East-War.html

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Tanker Struck by Projectile Off Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Coast, UKMTO Says

By Nadeen Ebrahim

A tanker has been struck by unknown projectile 63 nautical miles west of Saudi Arabia’s port city of Yanbu, causing a fire on the vessel’s main deck, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported.

All crew are safe and accounted for and no environmental impact has been reported, UKMTO reported, adding that “vessels are advised to transit with caution and report any suspicious activity.”

Since the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has rerouted much of its oil exports through Red Sea ports such as Yanbu.

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have targeted Saudi shipping in the Red Sea for several weeks, threatening an oil-export route that has become increasingly important since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Yanbu lies about 900 kilometers (560 miles) from the nearest part of Yemen.


https://edition.cnn.com/2026/08/24/world/live-news/iran-war-trump

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Uranium

Agriculture

Storms Move Offshore Tonight, Not as Active on Sunday

SAVANNAH, Ga. (WTOC) - Storms are near the coast, moving offshore with frequent lightning. The severe threat is low, but slow-moving downpours could lead to localized flooding.

Tomorrow looks mostly quiet, with temperatures starting out in the mid 70s at daybreak. We’ll warm to the upper 80s by lunchtime with highs in the mid 90s Sunday afternoon. Unlike Saturday, we are not expecting much rain on Sunday, but if storms do pop up, they could contain brief gusty wind. Overall, it’ll be a great day to do yard work or run errands!

Sunday beach forecast: Wave heights will range from 2 to 3 feet with a low risk for rip currents. The UV index will be very high with dry conditions expected. Highs will be near 90 degrees with wind from the south at 5 to 10 miles per hour.

Hilton Head Island tides: Low - 10:56 AM/High 5:38 PM

Tybee Island tides: Low 11:12 AM/High 5:28 PM

Monday starts out on out on a dry note with temperatures starting in the 70s. Temperatures will still reach the mid 90s on Monday afternoon with isolated downpours possible.

The middle and end of the week will be more active, especially during the afternoon hours. Daily afternoon showers and storms will be likely starting on Tuesday and lasting through the end of the week. Temperatures won’t be quite as high as last week, with afternoon highs peaking in the lower 90s.

Tropical update:

There are a few areas we are watching, none of which pose any threat locally!

The area with the greatest chance for development is in the Eastern Atlantic. An area of low pressure is expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Monday. This system will track west through next week and could develop into a tropical depression by the middle or end of the week.

An area east of Bermuda has a low chance at development, moving north over open water.

There is also a non-tropical low morning toward Spain and Portugal, which could increase wave heights for their coastline.


https://www.wtoc.com/2026/08/22/isolated-downpours-continue-through-early-evening/

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Precious Metals

Critical One Discovers Gold at Howells Lake Antimony Project

Critical One Energy Unsplash image

Critical One Energy (CSE:CRTL) reports gold mineralisation and extended ‘high-grade’ antimony zones at its Howells Lake Antimony‑Gold Project in northwestern Ontario, Canada.

Hole HWL‑2026‑016 returned ‘high-grade’ antimony results, extending the mineralised footprint approximately 70m northeast of previous holes.

New assay results confirm additional near‑surface antimony mineralisation and the northeast extension of a ‘high‑grade’ antimony zone.

Results include 4.1m @ 2.87% antimony (Sb) from 18.2m, 2.2m @ 4.09% Sb from 22.3m, and 1.1m @ 3.42% Sb from 25.5m. Gold mineralisation includes 3.3m @ 1.02 grams per tonne gold (Au) from 15.9m and 2.2m @ 1.14g/t Au from 22.3m in the same hole.

“The grade profile and continuity of high-grade, near-surface antimony continue to validate management’s confidence in the Howells Lake Project and further support our potential direct-shipping scenario,” CEO Duane Parnham says.

“The bonus is that this new high-grade gold discovery adds another potential source of financial value to the deposit.”

Critical One Energy will continue drilling northeast and down‑dip along the interpreted ‘high‑grade’ antimony structure, which dips approximately 55 degrees northeast and remains open for follow‑up drilling.

The project is located in the Thunder Bay Mining Division approximately 120km west of the Ring of Fire access corridor.

Write to JC Villarba at Mining.com.au

Images: Critical One Energy


https://mining.com.au/critical-one-discovers-gold-at-howells-lake-antimony-project/

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Gold Fever: Why Global Funds, Indian Retail Investors And Borrowers Are All Betting On It

Be it Indian retail investors, global fund managers or households pledging jewellery for loans, everyone is betting big on gold right now, and for very different reasons. 

Gold Fever: Why Global Funds, Indian Retail Investors And Borrowers Are All Betting On It

Gold's moment is playing out on three fronts at once, and none of them look like they are slowing down. Globally, brokerage Jefferies is backing gold miners as one of its highest-conviction trades, pointing to a sharp turnaround in the sector's cash generation. In India, retail investors, particularly women, are driving strong inflows into gold exchange-traded funds, as our earlier story on the AMFI-Crisil Factbook 2026 showed. And now, a third strand is emerging: Indian households and small businesses are increasingly borrowing against their gold rather than simply holding it, a shift JPMorgan says marks the start of a structural boom in gold-backed lending.

 Global Fund Managers Are Buying In

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index's free cash flow yield, a measure of how much cash a company generates relative to its market value, has swung from a negative 2.01% in June 2023 to a positive 5.07% in July 2026, and now stands at 3.74%, Jefferies said in its GREED & fear note dated August 20, 2026. Over the same period, the S&P 500's free cash flow yield slid from 4.75% in September 2022 to 2.67%, flipping a spread that was deeply negative at 584 basis points in October 2023 into positive territory, now at 108 basis points.

With gold miners "looking increasingly like they have broken out again," Jefferies said it would raise its already-large gold miner exposure across its model portfolios, having already added gold miner Zijin Gold International to its China and Asia ex-Japan portfolios in place of e-commerce major JD.com.

The bullish call comes against a backdrop of fiscal stress in major economies, including a widening US deficit, a national debt pile that has just crossed $40 trillion, and rising bond yields in both the US and Japan, all of which Jefferies says leave the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan with little room to tighten policy, a dynamic that traditionally favours gold.

Indian Retail Is Already There

That global shift mirrors a trend already underway in Indian markets. Our recent story showed Indian retail investors, women in particular, driving a sharp rise in gold ETF inflows over the past year. Global fund managers now appear to be arriving at the same conclusion from a different starting point: fiscal risk rather than jewellery culture or portfolio diversification.

Now, Indians Are Borrowing Against It Too

A third gold trend is unfolding within India's credit markets. Gold loans are becoming the country's fastest-growing retail credit category, and JPMorgan believes the shift is only getting started.

Gold investment is booming on Wall Street.

Gold investment is booming on Wall Street. Photo Credit: NDTV Profit

In a note initiating coverage on the sector, the brokerage said gold loans' share of system credit could rise to around 10% over the next five years, up from just 2% in FY24 and 5% now, as gold evolves from a family heirloom into a monetisable asset. Citing this structural tailwind, JPMorgan initiated coverage on non-banking financial companies (NBFCs) IIFL Finance, Manappuram Finance and Muthoot Finance, all of which specialise in gold-backed lending, with an "overweight" rating.

Gold loans, the brokerage said in its report titled "India Gold Lenders: The Credit Gold Rush," are "secured retail credit with robust growth," and the "next phase of growth should be structural rather than cyclical." Borrowers, it added, benefit from a "300-600bps rate arbitrage" against unsecured credit, a gap of three to six percentage points in interest rates, while lenders "grow a low-risk secured book."

Despite the sharp rise in gold loan disbursements in recent years, JPMorgan believes penetration remains shallow. The brokerage estimates only around 11% of gold held by bottom-60% households, ranked by income, is currently pledged as collateral, and just 3% of that by NBFCs specifically. It also pushed back on the assumption that southern India, home to nearly 40% of the country's household gold, is a saturated market, noting that gold loan penetration in the South "is on par with other regions," leaving "ample room to grow in a market holding ~40% of India's HH gold."

Gold Loans Replacing Personal Loans

JPMorgan's optimism rests on a simple substitution story: households and small businesses are increasingly choosing gold loans over personal and business loans. Gold loans' share of retail credit disbursements jumped to 41% in FY26 from 18% in FY23, largely at the expense of unsecured personal and small business loans, whose share fell to 41% from 55% over the same period.

The brokerage said the shift is being driven by the lower cost of gold loans compared with personal loans, along with rising financial literacy among borrowers increasingly willing to monetise idle household jewellery to meet short-term needs such as education, medical emergencies and travel, as well as small businesses using gold loans for working capital. The substitution, JPMorgan noted, is "particularly pronounced" among sub-prime borrowers, those with weaker credit scores, who are drawn by the wide gap between unsecured and gold-loan pricing.

Gold loans also carry the lowest bad-loan ratio among retail credit categories, at around 0.2%, against 0.5-0.6% for mortgages and auto loans, and above 1% for unsecured products, JPMorgan said. That asset quality has held up even through sharp swings in gold prices, the brokerage said, since collateral coverage and conservative loan-to-value ratios (LTVs, the loan amount as a percentage of the pledged gold's value) of 55-65% offer a wide margin of safety. Regulatory changes on gold-backed lending, effective from April 2026, have raised headline LTV caps in a tiered manner while tightening collateral valuation norms, a shift JPMorgan expects to be broadly neutral for established gold-NBFCs, given they already operate at conservative levels.

Taken together, the three trends point to the same underlying story from different directions: as fiscal risk builds globally and gold prices stay elevated, gold is being treated less as a static store of value and more as an active financial asset, whether that means fund managers buying miners, Indian households buying ETFs, or borrowers unlocking cash against jewellery they already own.


https://www.ndtvprofit.com/markets/gold-fever-why-global-funds-indian-retail-investors-and-borrowers-are-all-betting-on-it-11950155

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