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Thursday 29 October 2026
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Why the U.S. Crude Trajectory Is Unsustainable into 2027

Crude oil inventories in the United States saw a decrease of 1.9 million barrels during the week ending October 23, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 410.6 million barrels, according to government data, which is now 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.

The EIA’s data release follows API’s figures that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories had fallen by 2.031 million barrels in the period.

Crude futures were trading up at 10:26 a.m. in New York. Brent futures were trading up at $115.61 per barrel—up $1.73 (+1.52%) on the day and up roughly $7 per barrel from this same time last week. WTI was also trading up on the day, by $2.51 per barrel (+2.51%) on Wednesday morning at $102.41, up nearly $5 per barrel since this time last week.

For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels, after dipping 3 million barrels in the week prior. The most recent figures showed that average daily gasoline production sank to 9.2 million barrels. For middle distillates, inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels, with production decreasing to an average of 5.2 million barrels daily. Distillate inventories are now 10% below the five-year average.

Total products supplied—a proxy for U.S. oil demand—averaged 20.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 0.2% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.6 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, with the distillate four-week average supplied at 4.0 million barrels—down 0.6% year over year.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Oil-Inventories-Fall-Again-As-Prices-Rise.html

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Macro

Qatari Mediators Present Iran with New Deal to End the War, Official Says

Qatari mediators presented Iran with a new draft deal on Sunday to end the war with the US and Israel, and Tehran is expected to send a response to the draft by the end of the week, an official briefed on the negotiations said on Wednesday.

The new draft being considered by Iran sets a seven-day timeline addressing both Tehran's and Washington's concerns, laying out daily confidence-building steps that each side must take, the official said.

The timeline could begin early next week and several countries would act as guarantors of the deal, the official added.

Qatar, along with Pakistan, has led mediation to end the war that the US and Israel launched in February. The conflict has disrupted global shipping and oil supplies and spilled over across other parts of the Middle East.

There were concerns ahead of Sunday's meeting in Tehran that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, fighting for another term in a general election, could resume attacks on the Islamic Republic this week, the official briefed on the negotiations said.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump repeated threats to strike Iran again, while Iranian security officials told Reuters Tehran had drawn up detailed plans to attack Gulf undersea cables if the US and Israel resumed attacks.

Earlier mediation efforts helped produce an interim peace agreement in June, but the deal quickly unravelled.

In recent weeks Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have launched repeated attacks against Saudi Arabia, the world's largest crude exporter.


https://www.thestandard.com.hk/world/article/346771/Qatari-mediators-present-Iran-with-new-deal-to-end-the-war-official-says

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South Korean Shares Rally 6% as SK Hynix Beats Forecasts


Round-up of South Korean financial markets:

South Korean shares rallied 6% on Wednesday, as chipmakers jumped after SK Hynix announced higher-than-expected third-quarter profit and forecast demand to remain robust.

The benchmark KOSPI was up 337.64 points, or 5.99%, at 5,975.98 as of 0140 GMT.

The index will post its biggest daily percentage rise since July 31, if the trend holds.

An AI-fueled tech rally sent US stocks to a higher close on Tuesday as third-quarter reporting season gained steam, while the Federal Reserve convened for its penultimate meeting of the year.

SK Hynix gained 8.20% after the chipmaker announced shareholder returns of about $75 billion and reported a more than seven-fold rise in quarterly profit as AI infrastructure continues to drive up memory chip prices.

Peer chipmaker Samsung Electronics rose 8.90%.

Among other index heavyweights, battery maker LG Energy Solution climbed 1.70%, while Hyundai Motor and sister automaker Kia Corp were up 3.27% and up 1.50%, respectively.

Steelmaker POSCO Holdings added 2.72%, while drugmaker Samsung BioLogics fell 0.36%. Of the total 913 traded issues, 620 shares advanced, while 257 declined.

Foreigners were net buyers of shares worth 589.1 billion won ($444.24 million).

The won was quoted at 1,335.7 per dollar on the onshore settlement platform, 0.64% lower than its previous close at 1,327.2.

In money and debt markets, December futures on three-year treasury bonds lost 0.05 point to 103.29.

The most liquid three-year Korean treasury bond yield fell by 2.2 basis points to 3.776%, while the benchmark 10-year yield rose by 2.8 basis points to 4.070%.


https://www.brecorder.com/news/amp/40446292

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Oil and Gas

Trump Shows Off Tanker with ‘1m Barrels of Oil’ and Floats Venezuela as 51st State

Donald Trump suggested Venezuela would become the 51st state of the United States on Tuesday as the president showed off a tanker he claimed had “one million barrels of oil on it” from the country, nine months after deposing its president.

At a campaign rally in Corpus Christ, Texas, Trump touted a US oil deal with Venezuela, which the US attacked in January, capturing its long-serving leader Nicolás Maduro.

Trump claims the agreement – struck with the South American country’s interim government, which is backed by Trump’s administration – will cover “billions” of barrels of oil.

Venezuela “will become a prosperous country, and who knows? Maybe some day soon it’ll become a prosperous 51st state,” Trump said at the podium on Tuesday. “That’s possible.”

Venezuela is on a growing list of countries and territories Trump has spoken of acquiring, including Greenland, Canada and Mexico.

With tens of millions of Americans set to vote in next week’s midterm elections, Trump’s aggressive foreign policy – including his controversial war on Iran, and tariffs on goods from much of the world – have challenged his popularity, according to opinion polls, with his approval ratings falling to record lows.

But on Tuesday, the president sought to point to the Venezuela operation as an example of his success. US fuel prices, which surged after the start of the Iran war, piling pressure on Americans’ cost of living, “will soon come plummeting down”, he claimed in a social media post.

“We’re celebrating the greatest oil victory in history,” he said at the rally, pointing out the ship off the Texan coast. “The oil provided is being provided to the United States at zero cost to the American taxpayer.”

Moments before Trump took the stage in Texas, he claimed on his Truth Social platform: “By unleashing Energy Dominance from Alaska, all the way down to Venezuela, I have made the Western Hemisphere the Energy Capital of the World.”

The deal has also drawn skepticism as critics complained that the Trump administration has not pushed a transition to democracy in Venezuela, where elections have not been held since Maduro was detained by US forces and taken to New York to face criminal charges after a raid on his Caracas residence.

The urgency of the oil agreement stems from Trump’s opting into the war with Iran in February. Gas prices have shot up nationwide after Iran closed the strait of Hormuz, a passageway for 20% of the world’s oil supplies.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/27/trump-oil-tanker-venezuela

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European Commission Rules Out Resumption of Russian Gas Supplies to EU


Russian gas supplies to the European Union and operation of the Nord Stream pipeline will not resume after the end of Russia's war against Ukraine, the European Commission said on Wednesday, responding to media reports that the United States and Russia are discussing a possible restoration of supplies.

European Commission chief spokesperson Paula Pinho said EU legislation ruled out a return to imports of Russian fossil fuels, including gas.

She said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had recently reiterated that energy sanctions imposed in response to Russia's war would remain in force until Russia ends the war. The EU was aware of the cost of dependence on Russian fossil fuels, which Moscow had used as a weapon, Pinho said, adding that the consequences of that dependence remained significant regardless of whether the war continued.

European Commission energy spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said the phaseout of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas under the EU's REPowerEU plan was based on legislation independent of sanctions or other geopolitical developments.

The EU was gradually eliminating Russian gas from its market, with the remaining supplies scheduled to end by the close of 2027, she said.


https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/1227444-amp.html

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Iran Eyes $130 Oil While at Least 50 Tankers Sit Stuck in the Gulf

By Charles Kennedy - Oct 28, 2026, 9:00 AM CDT Updated: Oct 28, 2026, 2:39 PM CDT

  • Iran’s Plan and Budget Organization may include a $130-a-barrel scenario in the budget for the year starting March 2027, per Iranian media, though a baseline that high is highly unlikely.
  • The U.S. blockade, reinstated in mid-July, has stranded at least 50 laden Iranian tankers and sent exports sharply lower since August, so higher prices may not help Tehran.
  • Kpler data shows Iran’s floating storage fell from close to 150 million barrels before April to just 866,000 barrels by mid-October.

An oil price of $130 per barrel could be one of the scenarios of Iran’s economic planners preparing the budget for the next Iranian year starting March 2027, according to Iranian media. 

It is not clear yet what baseline Iranian economists will use in next year’s budget, but the Plan and Budget Organization may include a scenario assuming $130 a barrel oil, according to Fars News Agency, which is close to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). 

It is highly unlikely the baseline would be as high as the $130 oil floated in Iranian media in recent days. Iran has typically budgeted at very conservative oil price assumptions. 

Regardless of where oil prices will be next year, Iran may not benefit from oil price increases at all, due to the U.S. blockade crippling Iranian oil exports. 

As of early October, the U.S. blockade in the Gulf of Oman had already stranded at least 50 Iranian tankers laden with oil inside the Persian Gulf near Iran’s coastline, U.S.-based non-profit and non-partisan policy organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) said in a shipping update.

After the collapse of the U.S.-Iran ‘deal to make a deal’, the U.S. Navy reinstated in mid-July the blockade in the Gulf of Oman outside the Strait of Hormuz to force Iran’s oil exports to zero and gain leverage in negotiations.

Publicly, Iran remains defiant and claims it will find ways to dodge the U.S. blockade. 

But vessel-tracking services have estimated that Iran’s oil exports have plunged since August. 

Iranian oil in floating storage has also been drained amid the U.S. Navy blockade. 

“There’s no more oil to discharge to China anymore,” Kpler’s head of crude oil analysis, Homayoun Falakshahi, said, as quoted by the Wall Street Journal earlier this month. 

Before the United States imposed a blockade on Iranian ports in April, Iran had close to 150 million barrels in floating storage. By July 14, approximately 88.8 million barrels of Iranian oil remained on the water outside the blockade zone, but that volume had fallen to zero by mid-October, underscoring the effectiveness of the U.S. restrictions. Meanwhile, an estimated 43 million barrels remain stranded inside the blockade zone, effectively cut off from international buyers. By mid-October, Iran's total floating storage outside the blockade had dwindled to just 866,000 barrels, according to Kpler's data.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Eyes-130-Oil-While-at-Least-50-Tankers-Sit-Stuck-in-the-Gulf.html

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Alternative Energy

Sinopec Releases Africa Sustainability Report and Launches WE17 Global Communication Brand in Cairo

CAIRO, Oct. 28, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (HKG: 0386, "Sinopec" or "the Company") released Sinopec's Sustainability Report in Africa (2021-2025) in Cairo on October 25 which highlights five years of progress in energy cooperation, environmental protection, community development, and cultural exchange. The Company also introduced its global sustainability communication brand, WE17. The report shows that Sinopec implemented 33 projects across 16 African countries between 2021 and 2025, with cumulative investment exceeding US$5.7 billion and total tax payments and social responsibility contributions surpassing US$4 billion over the same period. In 2025, its operations directly created 16,000 local jobs.

Zhao Liuqing, Minister Counselor for Economic and Commercial Affairs at the Chinese Embassy in Egypt, addressed the event and noted that 2026 marks the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Egypt and of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and African countries. Mr. Zhao described Sinopec's activities in Egypt as an example of the China-Egypt comprehensive strategic partnership and a contribution to stronger people-to-people ties. Magdy Amer, board member of the Egypt-China Friendship Association and former Egyptian ambassador to China, also delivered remarks recognizing Sinopec's contributions to economic and social development.

Wei Dong, Managing Director of Sinopec Africa Office, presented the report and reaffirmed the Company's commitment to leveraging its integrated industrial capabilities, increasing investment in quality resources, and balancing economic performance with ecological protection and community well-being. He also emphasized Sinopec's continued participation in Africa's industrialization and public service development.

Sinopec expands energy cooperation and environmental protection

The sustainability report documents Sinopec's activities in oil and gas exploration, engineering services, refining, energy trade, and renewable energy. Sinopec is exploring wind and solar alternatives for oilfield operations in the Western Desert of Egypt through its partnership with Apache Corporation. At the Sinopec-Apache project in Egypt, gas flaring had been reduced by more than 60% by the end of 2025 through energy efficiency and gas recovery measures.

Additionally, Sinopec participates in five offshore exploration and development blocks in Angola and maintains long-term energy cooperation with Algeria. Its renewable energy activities include Ethiopia's Adama Wind Power Project, which meets approximately 20% of the capital's electricity demand, and a geothermal pipeline project that supports clean electricity generation in Kenya. Environmental initiatives include planting over 7,000 mangroves in Angola and deploying ultra-low-noise intelligent drilling rigs in Uganda which have reduced carbon emissions by more than 90% compared with conventional rigs.


https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/sinopec-releases-africa-sustainability-report-072900382.html

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Base Metals

What Does Anthropic’s IPO Filing Have to Do With the Copper Price?

The copper price climbed back above its April support trendline on Tuesday, erasing last week's breakdown. The rebound tracked a recovery in AI stocks after Anthropic made its initial public offering (IPO) filing public.

The move leaves copper about 3.5% below its September record. Yet metal is still piling up in US warehouses, which could limit how far bulls can push prices.

Why Did Anthropic's IPO Lift Copper Price?

Claude developer Anthropic published its filing on Monday. The Nasdaq gained 0.8% and Nvidia 2.4% as the filing lifted chip stocks.

The connection runs through data centers. Anthropic's filing lists roughly $587 billion in compute and lease obligations, and every new AI campus is wired with copper.

The same link worked in reverse last week. A tech selloff helped push copper through its April trendline on October 22.

"...the recent rout in AI stocks hit copper prices hard, reflecting just how sensitive the metal has become towards the AI sector."

Is Physical Copper Tight Enough to Hold the Bounce?

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), three-month copper rose 1.1% to $14,487.50 per tonne, its highest since October 16, Reuters reported.

Supply outside the US looks thin. China's Yangshan premium, the fee buyers pay to import refined copper, reached $188 per tonne, a nearly 13-year high.

Shanghai exchange inventories also fell more than 25% in a week as smelters paused for maintenance.

ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey expects that shortage to support prices. Broker Sucden Financial, however, noted that growing US stockpiles continue to cap the headline price.

Is Copper's $6.95 Record Back in Play?

On the daily chart, the October 22 breakdown failed within days. Copper never reached the 0.382 Fibonacci support near $6.31.

Price now trades near $6.72 per pound, pressing against the $6.64 to $6.72 resistance zone that capped October rallies.

A daily close above that zone could open a path toward the $6.95 record.


XCU daily chart / Source: Tradingview

If the breakout stalls, the 0.382 level at $6.31 may serve as the main defense area for buyers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge, sits near 53 and is rising.

The Federal Reserve's rate decision on Wednesday and Big Tech earnings this week will test the AI bid. Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, called the Anthropic IPO listing "a referendum on the entire AI trade." For now, copper is voting with it.

Read the Original story What Does Anthropic's IPO Filing Have to Do With the Copper Price? by Jakub Dziadkowiec at beincrypto.com


https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commodities/articles/does-anthropic-ipo-filing-copper-154330767.html

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Sierra Gorda’s $725 Million Expansion Puts Sodium Bisulfide Demand in Focus

Sodium bisulfide is an important processing reagent in the mining industry, particularly in molybdenum recovery from copper-bearing ores. The expansion of the Sierra Gorda mine in northern Chile presents a positive downstream development for the chemical, as increased ore-processing capacity could support higher requirements for flotation reagents used in mineral separation.

KGHM Polska Miedz S.A. has announced an investment of approximately USD *** million to expand the Sierra Gorda operation through the installation of a fourth grinding line. Developed in partnership with South** Ltd., the project is designed to increase annual ore-processing capacity from approximately ** million tonnes to ** million tonnes. The expansion aims to strengthen copper production capabilities while improving processing efficiency and supporting the long-term development of the mining operation.


https://www.chemanalyst.com/NewsAndDeals/NewsDetails/sierra-gordas-725-million-expansion-puts-sodium-bisulfide-45216

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Steel

Korea's Crude Steel Output Seen Recovering From Two-Year Low

The latest KOSA data show that between January and August this year, the country produced 42.81 million tonnes of crude steel which, annualized out, would make for a calendar 2026 total of around 64.2 million tonnes. Within the eight-month total, blast furnace makers POSCO and Hyundai Steel produced 31.01 million tonnes – essentially unchanged on year – while electric furnace steelmakers produced 11.8 million tonnes, some 600,000 tonnes higher on year, the KOSA numbers show.

Should this year's output top 64 million tonnes, the Korean mills will feel at least a little relieved and reassured. KOSA statistics show that domestic crude steel production last year was 62.23 million tonnes, lower by 2.2% from the 63.65 million level reached in 2024 and the lowest volume since the 58.9 million Korea produced in 2010.

In fact, Korean steel output peaked at 72.46 million tonnes in 2018 and has been generally sliding ever since, including a plunge to 67.08 million in 2020 amid the COVID pandemic and the resulting slowdown in global economic activity.

"The main cause for the production decline is the contraction in demand for bar and shaped steel due to the construction market downturn," industry daily Steel & Metal News commented. Electric-arc-furnace steelmakers are facing the burden of declining sales and lower equipment utilization rates, it observed, noting that domestic rebar sales – which once exceeded 10 million tonnes/year – have recently dropped to the 6 million t/y range and seem unlikely to recover markedly any time soon.

Indeed, KOSA statistics show that domestic rebar sales last year fell to 6.5 million tonnes – from 7.6 million in 2024 – and the January-August total for this year suggests a further fall to around 6.3 million for 2026 is possible.

"While crude steel production is expected to increase compared to last year, it is difficult to say that domestic steel demand has clearly recovered," SMN quotes a steel industry official as saying. "With the construction market continuing to be sluggish, production activities in major demand industries such as automobiles and shipbuilding, as well as the expansion of domestic steel sales, will affect future production volumes."

Written by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com

Edited by Alyssa Ren, rentingting@mysteel.com


https://www.mysteel.net/analysis/5146468-koreas-crude-steel-output-seen-recovering-from-two-year-low

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