Submitted by admin on Thu, 2026-10-01 09:00 Section: Daily Dispatches
From VBLGoldFix, Substack | Thursday, October 1, 2026
Judy Shelton has joined the Treasury Department as counselor to Secretary Scott Bessent, bringing an advocate of gold-convertible government bonds into his office as inflation and deficit concerns drive up U.S. borrowing costs.
The New York Times' DealBook column reported her appointment on Sept. 16, alongside rising bond yields despite Treasury's multibillion-dollar buybacks. Bessent defended those purchases, saying yields would have been higher without them. The Independent Institute also lists Shelton as counselor to the Treasury secretary.
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 04, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT
The share of gasoline cars in global vehicle sales fell below 50% for the first time ever as the Hormuz shock and the resulting record-high fuel prices accelerated the previously sluggish shift toward EVs outside China.
A few years ago, China blew past the threshold of 50% of all car sales being hybrids and EVs, and the share is now about 55%. But the rest of the world didn’t follow until the Iran war disrupted the fuel markets.
Global sales shares of EVs are far from the Chinese numbers, but the shift toward electric vehicles has been remarkably fast amid spiking gasoline and diesel prices, which pushed many consumers to choose EVs.
The surge in gasoline prices this year led to the first dip in the share of gasoline-fueled cars below 50%, ever, according to data by automotive data and analytics provider Mobility Global cited by Nikkei Asia.
Between January and June, sales of gas-powered vehicles, excluding hybrids, slumped by 10% from a year earlier, to 20.25 million cars, and their share of total global automotive sales fell by 3 percentage points to 49%, the data showed.
For years, the EV uptake in markets outside China was sluggish and lagging forecasts, but the Hormuz crisis, the $100 oil prices, and record diesel and gasoline prices pushed many consumers in Europe, South America, and Asia Pacific toward EVs.
Battery electric vehicle sales in Europe, including the UK, Switzerland, and Norway, surged by 52.2% in August from a year earlier as record-high gasoline and diesel prices prompted drivers to flock to battery and hybrid vehicles, data by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, ACEA, showed last month.
BEV sales in Germany, the biggest car market in Europe, soared by 75% in August year-over-year, as gasoline prices in Germany hit an all-time high of 2.31 euros per liter, or the equivalent of about $10 per gallon.
EV sales in France, another major European market, more than doubled.
In Germany, where the government introduced a purchase premium for EVs from January 2026, sales are accelerating, an analysis by the German Institute for Economic Research, DIW, showed earlier this week.
One in every four passenger cars sold in Germany between January and August was a pure battery electric vehicle, while the share in August was even higher – one in every three passenger cars sold was a BEV, according to the analysis. This compares to an average of 19% in 2025.
Globally, electric vehicle sales have surged this year following the oil supply disruption in the Middle East and the second oil price shock in four years.
Following a subdued start to the year, EV sales jumped in the second quarter after the Middle East crisis slashed crude supply and hiked oil and fuel prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in July in an update to its annual EV outlook.
EV sales rebounded sharply in the second quarter, rising by 35% compared with the first quarter “as the energy crisis sparked by the war in the Middle East brought fuel price volatility back into sharp focus,” the agency said.
EV sales in the second quarter reached record-high levels in 50 countries as drivers preferred electric vehicles amid soaring fuel prices.
In sizable car markets such as Brazil, India, Australia, and Vietnam, electric car sales roughly doubled between March and June compared with the same period in 2025, according to the IEA’s analysis in the report.
Moreover, as many as 90 countries saw annual growth in EV sales in the first half of the year.
The accelerating EV adoption that began with the spike in oil and fuel prices is set to remain a trend in the global markets and could push the share of EVs in the passenger fleet above earlier expectations, analysts at Wood Mackenzie say.
Challenges to accelerated adoption still remain, including the need for billions of U.S. dollars in investments in critical battery minerals supply and charging networks. Yet, the longer the Strait of Hormuz crisis roils global fuel markets, the stronger the case for EV adoption could become.
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (left) last month and candidate Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro in August. | AFP-JIJI
Flavio Bolsonaro surged to a surprise lead over Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, making him the overwhelming favorite to win the runoff and take Latin America’s heavyweight nation sharply to the right.
With conservative allies dominating across Brazil in Sunday’s voting, Bolsonaro capped the day by taking about 47% of the vote to the leftist Lula’s roughly 45% with counting nearly complete.
They will face off on Oct. 25, but closing the gap is likely to prove difficult for the veteran president running what is likely his last race, given that most support for eliminated candidates is expected to fall behind Bolsonaro.
Brazilian stocks were expected to see gains on the news. Investors have largely backed the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, seeing him as more likely to pursue policies to address Brazil’s deteriorating fiscal situation.
Brazilian presidential candidate, Sen. Flavio Bolsonaro, reacts after the electoral authority said he would face the country’s president in a runoff, in Brasilia on Sunday. | REUTERS
The race will now move into a frenetic three weeks of campaigning to determine control of Latin America’s largest economy, an outcome with relevance for U.S. President Donald Trump’s attempts to exert U.S. dominance over the Western Hemisphere. Lula has resisted the U.S. administration’s efforts, while Bolsonaro wants to move closer to Trump’s orbit.
The mood inside Bolsonaro’s campaign headquarters in Brasilia was celebratory late Sunday, with a barbecue underway and music blasting, according to a person present, while Lula aides said his campaign was caught off guard by the scale of the challenger’s overperformance.
Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva speaks to supporters following the partial results of the presidential election in Sao Paulo on Sunday. | AFP-JIJI
A confident Bolsonaro declared “the end of the Workers’ Party era” in his first remarks, proclaiming that he and his allies had dealt a final blow to the leftist movement Lula built from a plucky upstart into Brazil’s most dominant political force.
“We will be able to build a government inspired by my father’s, an administration even better than his,” Bolsonaro said in a closed-door speech, according to a video seen by Bloomberg News.
Lula, by contrast, attempted to keep supporters on board, expressing confidence about his ability in runoff races and asserting that a new campaign begins Monday.
“The runoff is our chance to show the true picture of Brazil today, and the Brazil we want,” Lula said in Sao Paulo.
But to win, the 80-year-old president — who governed Brazil from 2003 to 2010, later went to prison on corruption convictions that were ultimately annulled, then returned to the top job again — will have to pull off another unprecedented comeback. Since Brazil returned to democracy in 1989, no candidate who trailed in the first round has won the runoff.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva greets supporters after casting a ballot at a polling station during the general election in Sao Paulo on Sunday. | BLOOMBERG
Even if he does, the initial results dealt a devastating blow to the Workers’ Party, which has won five of the last six presidential races but is now facing fresh evidence that its message no longer resonates with Brazilians as it once did.
Aside from Bolsonaro, the Brazilian right made substantial gains in the Senate and key governors races. That is likely to bolster the 45-year-old senator’s power to reshape Brazilian institutions — including the Supreme Court that convicted his father of plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election to Lula — should he prevail in the runoff.
The scale of the right’s success left Lula aides concluding that voters had expressed a broader rejection of the Workers’ Party that went beyond dissatisfaction with the president, according to two who spoke on condition of anonymity.
And yet, the rebuke will also force the party to acknowledge its inability to build a bench of candidates capable of succeeding its aging standard-bearer.
The party “will face a reckoning not only about Lula’s succession — and the lack of new leaders — but its disconnect with most voters on many social and economic priorities,” said Mario Braga, a geopolitical analyst at the consultancy RANE.
A Trump ally
The implications of the election will rumble far beyond Brazil. A victory for Bolsonaro would accelerate Trump’s effort to reassert U.S. primacy over the Americas after conservative allies won recent votes in Colombia, Chile and Peru.
Brazil under Lula has been among the last holdouts to Trump’s so-called “Donroe Doctrine” for the Western Hemisphere, remaining a bellwether of the regional embrace of China the U.S. leader is trying to reverse.
Trump has played an outsize role in the nation’s politics since last year, when he slapped tariffs on Brazil in an unsuccessful bid to help Jair Bolsonaro escape conviction.
A Brazilian wears an image of former President Jair Bolsonaro and a U.S. President Trump hat, during the general election, in Brasilia on Sunday. | REUTERS
He later reconciled with Lula and lifted the levies. But he reimposed tariffs in July, handing Lula an opportunity to argue that Trump was interfering in Brazilian affairs to boost Flavio Bolsonaro, who has pledged to move the country closer to the U.S..
Brazil’s race, however, has largely focused on another object of voter concern: corruption, fueled primarily by a probe into Banco Master, the failed lender at the center of a $10 billion fraud investigation that has repeatedly upended the race.
Bolsonaro sagged behind Lula earlier this year amid revelations that he’d sought money from Daniel Vorcaro, the bank’s jailed former owner, for a film about his father — links that are now subject to federal investigation. (Bolsonaro denies wrongdoing.)
But the scandal later dented Lula’s reelection bid after leaked messages deepened ties between Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes and Vorcaro.
An ensuing institutional crisis inside the powerful top court fueled a surge in momentum behind Bolsonaro, who used it to renew calls for Moraes’ impeachment while painting the judge who oversaw his father’s conviction as a close Lula ally.
Economy and markets
That’s largely distracted from economic issues, even as the candidates offer competing visions. Lula, who has long favored a spend-to-grow approach with a focus on stimulating consumer demand, has overseen steady expansion and near-record low unemployment.
But growth has begun to slow amid high interest rates meant to bring inflation back to the central bank’s target, and borrowing costs that remain at 13.75% have weighed on major Brazilian companies and consumers alike.
The nominal fiscal deficit, meanwhile, has risen to nearly 10% of gross domestic product while public debt has soared above 80%, leaving investors scouring the race for plans to shore up accounts in a way that would make it easier for policymakers to reduce rates.
Lula and his advisers have alternated between pledges to tackle the debt and questioning the need to: “We need to stop this nonsense about running budget surpluses,” Lula said at one event in the race’s final stages.
Bolsonaro, in a nod to the austerity drive led by libertarian Argentina leader Javier Milei, has wielded scissors to promise a “big cut” in spending. He’s provided little detail about his plans, but it’s made him the preferred choice of investors who see him as more likely to pursue fiscal adjustments.
Lula has unleashed a rash of stimulus this year in a bid to help consumers access cheaper credit and ease debt pressures. In the race’s final weeks, he boosted social welfare benefits and unveiled a plan to use public funds to buy delinquent debts.
He also banned online gambling, which he’s blamed for plunging Brazilians into the red.
For decades, such policies worked: A former trade unionist, Lula became a global icon during his first presidency, when he guided Brazil through an explosive period of growth and lifted millions out of poverty.
He surged back to office four years ago with a promise to restore the same prosperity.
But while he remains revered by a large base of supporters, he’s struggled to convince many voters he’s capable of delivering on the demands of a Brazil much different from the one he previously governed.
Lula appeared to nod to that reality Sunday night, telling supporters in Sao Paulo that his party and his campaign “need to rethink how we’re doing things.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/10/05/world/brazil-lula-bolsonaro-narrow-election/
Stock market prediction for Monday, 5 October, 2026: Gift Nifty was trading around the 22,580 level, up nearly 50 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.
Vaamanaa Sethi
Updated5 Oct 2026, 06:57 AM IST
Stock market prediction for Monday, 5 October, 2026: The Indian stock market is likely to open in green, as GIFT Nifty signalled a positive start on Monday, 5 October.
Meanwhile, Asian markets traded higher on Monday, while US stock futures closed in green on Friday last week.
“Indian equities are likely to open on a cautiously positive note, with GIFT Nifty futures trading above 22,600 against the Nifty 50’s previous close of 22,422, pointing to an early recovery attempt. Softer-than-expected U.S. employment data has eased some immediate concerns over further Federal Reserve tightening at its October meeting, offering a degree of support to global risk appetite. However, elevated Treasury yields, persistent foreign selling and renewed geopolitical risks could limit the upside and keep investors guarded through the session,” said Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money.
Sensex, Nifty: What happened on last week?
The Indian stock market extended its losing streak for the eighth consecutive week, with benchmark indices continuing their corrective trend amid persistent selling pressure and weak global cues.
Markets remained under pressure throughout the week, with the Sensex falling 1.52% on Monday, followed by relatively mild declines over the next two sessions before slipping another 0.79% on Thursday. Overall, the Sensex declined 1,670.84 points to close at 71,909.70, while the Nifty dropped more than 3% to settle at 22,421.95.
“Indian equities remained under pressure through the week, with both the Nifty 50 and Sensex extending their declines to eight consecutive weeks, marking their longest weekly losing streak in 25 years. Persistent foreign institutional selling, elevated crude oil prices, a weaker rupee and higher global bond yields continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The broader market also remained under pressure, with selling extending across several sectors as investors maintained a cautious approach amid ongoing geopolitical and global macroeconomic uncertainties,” said Ponmudi R, CEO - Enrich Money.
Sensex, Nifty prediction for today: Sensex, Nifty outlook
Gift Nifty today
Gift Nifty was trading around the 22,580 level, up nearly 50 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a positive start for the Indian stock market indices.
Sensex
The Sensex ended the session at 71,909.70, declining 570.59 points or 0.79%, as persistent selling pressure extended the market’s recent weakness. During the session, the index fell below its April 2025 swing low of 71,425.01 before recovering to close above that level.
Commenting on the Sensex outlook, Sachin Gupta, VP – Technical Research at Choice Equity Broking Private Limited, said the index continues to trade below its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), placed at 75,544.56 and 77,684.60, respectively. The relative strength index (RSI) has dropped to 24.55, signalling deeply oversold conditions. He identified the 71,000–71,200 range as a key support zone, while resistance is seen at 72,300–72,500.
Nifty 50
On the Nifty 50 outlook, Ajit Mishra, SVP–Research at Religare Broking, said the index witnessed a sharp correction following eight consecutive weeks of decline. The index tested a crucial long-term moving-average support zone, comprising the 200-week simple moving average (200-WSMA) and 200-week exponential moving average (200-WEMA), around 22,400–22,600. This zone was revisited after nearly six years. The Nifty also approached its previous major swing low of 22,182.55 before ending the session at 22,421.95.
Mishra noted that although the broader trend continues to remain bearish, the combination of strong technical support and oversold conditions could lead to a short-term recovery. He advised market participants to follow a hedged strategy, with 22,800 seen as the first upside target, followed by 23,100–23,200. However, a decisive break below the April low could invalidate the potential rebound and pull the index towards 21,700–22,000. He emphasised the need for strict stop-losses and disciplined risk management in the current market environment.
US markets performance
US stock futures were largely unchanged on Sunday evening as investors remained concerned about elevated Treasury yields and awaited the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting for indications of its next interest rate decision.
Dow Jones Industrial Average
On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 250 points, or 0.5%, to close at 51,176.46.
S&P 500
The S&P 500 gained 0.7% to finish at 7,722.72, on Friday.
Nasdaq
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2% to settle at 27,190.86, after touching a record high during the session.
Japan's Nikkei 225 performance
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed around 2%, led by gains in technology stocks, while the broader Topix advanced 0.79%.
South Korea's Kospi performance
The South Korean stock market is closed today, October 5, 2026, in observation of the National Foundation Day substitute holiday.
South Korean stocks ended the September 28-October 2 week lower despite staging a strong recovery in the latter part of the week. The Kospi declined 77.18 points, or 1.1%, week-on-week, to close at 7,003.74, as gains in leading semiconductor stocks failed to make up for the steep losses suffered earlier in the week.
Taiwan stock market
Taiwan stock market trading higher, with TAIEX index rising 2.29% in the early session on Monday.
Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration reveals incident occurred 27 nautical miles east of Dongsha Island in the South China Sea on Friday
Liu Zhen
Published: 2:33am, 3 Oct 2026Updated: 3:08am, 3 Oct 2026
Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration (CGA) used water cannons to expel a mainland Chinese fishing vessel near Dongsha Island, authorities said on Friday.
The incident occurred on October 1, 27 nautical miles east of the Taiwanese-controlled Dongsha Island, also called Pratas Island, in the South China Sea, the agency revealed.
The CGA’s patrol vessel Yunlin directed its water cannon towards the fishing boat Jin Sha’s wheelhouse for about 90 seconds after initially spraying water into the air for about 30 seconds as a warning, the Administration said in a statement.
The incident coincided with China’s National Day on Thursday. Moreover, the CGA detained two mainland fishing vessels on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively, near the Penghu Islands in the Taiwan Strait, and arrested 14 crew members. On Tuesday, two China Coast Guard vessels reportedly patrolled waters east of Taiwan, as the CCG continues to conduct what it describes as regular patrols in the area amid rising tensions.09:23History, money and military: why the South China Sea is so important to Beijing
The Jin Sha, along with another mainland Chinese fishing vessel, the Yue Hui Dong Yu 75066, was spotted anchored about eight nautical miles inside Taiwan’s designated “restricted waters” for mainland vessels, the statement said.
The Jin Sha refused to leave despite three radio warnings, while the other boat departed before the Yunlin used its water cannon to drive the Jin Sha away.
The CGA said the water stream was directed to avoid crew members on deck and the spraying stopped immediately after the Jin Sha started to exit the area. No official injury report was filed.
However, the fishing boat suffered an engine failure and lost power following the intervention. The CGA said the Yunlin provided 35 meals at the fishermen’s request before the disabled vessel was towed outside Taiwan’s restricted waters later on Thursday.
The Jin Sha was subsequently handed over to Chinese work vessel Haiyang Shiyou 681 Friday morning for return transport, it added.
Taipei controls the Dongsha Islands in the northeastern South China Sea, but Beijing also claims them. In a report on September 23, the CGA said it had detained nine mainland Chinese small boats in eight cases in Dongsha waters in 2026.
It also reported a series of encounters with Chinese coastguard vessels near Dongsha, including 12 instances in which Chinese coastguard ships were driven out of the “restricted waters” between January and early September 2026.
Under its regulations regarding relations with mainland China, Taipei designates two types of controlled waters. The “prohibited waters” extend 12 nautical miles from the sea baseline and beyond that, the “restricted waters” extend to 24 nautical miles.
Mainland vessels entering these zones without permission may face enforcement measures by Taiwanese authorities.
Beijing does not recognise such restrictions. It sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary.
Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons.
The U.S. Supreme Court opens its new term Monday with arguments in a closely watched case that could determine whether ExxonMobil and Suncor Energy can be held liable under state law for costs attributed to climate change.
The dispute stems from a lawsuit filed by the city and county of Boulder, Colorado, accusing the oil producers of contributing to climate change and misleading the public about the risks associated with fossil fuels. Boulder is seeking compensation for expenses including infrastructure repairs, emergency management, environmental damage and public health effects.
Exxon and Suncor appealed after the Colorado Supreme Court allowed the case to proceed. The companies contend that federal law, including the Clean Air Act, prevents state and local governments from pursuing claims that effectively seek to regulate greenhouse-gas emissions. The Trump administration has backed the companies' position.
The stakes extend well beyond Colorado. Nearly 60 state and local governments have filed similar lawsuits seeking billions of dollars from fossil-fuel producers. A broad Supreme Court ruling for Exxon and Suncor could provide grounds for dismissing many of those cases.
For energy investors, the case represents a potentially significant liability issue. A victory for Exxon and Suncor could reduce the industry's exposure to a growing collection of climate-related lawsuits and the possibility of large settlements or damage awards. A ruling favoring Boulder could allow more cases to move toward trials, increasing legal uncertainty and potential costs for major oil and gas companies.
The case also continues a broader battle over how much authority states have to address climate-related harms. Industry supporters argue that allowing individual states to impose liability for emissions generated through a global market could effectively let them regulate activity far beyond their borders.
Energy companies have generally fared well before the Supreme Court in major disputes over federal environmental authority during the past two decades. The court currently has a 6-3 conservative majority, although Justice Samuel Alito has recused himself from the Exxon-Suncor case.
The Trump administration's talks with Russia to end the war in Ukraine have expanded to include a multibillion-dollar oil deal that would benefit Middle Eastern business leaders with ties to US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the New York Times reported.
The deal, which is subject to approval by the US government and the Kremlin, includes a number of oil fields, refineries and gas stations around the world owned by Russian energy group Lukoil.
The White House, the U.S. Treasury Department and Lukoil did not respond to requests for comment.
The group pursuing the deal includes American investor and billionaire Todd Boehly, two Middle Eastern groups that have done business with the Kushner or Witkoff families, and a branch of the US government, the newspaper said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the issue of the deal during a Sept. 5 meeting with Witkoff and Kushner at the Kremlin, the NYT said, citing people familiar with the meeting. Putin proposed ending the deal as a way to show Russians they can do business with the United States, one of the people said.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia raised the issue of the deal when he met with Mr. Witkoff and Mr. Kushner in the Kremlin on Sept. 5. Putin proposed that it be done as a way to show Russians that they can do business with the United States.
In Moscow, the decision on the deal is widely seen as Mr. Putin’s, even though Lukoil is technically a private company. The result is that the giant transaction, which includes assets as diverse as oil fields in Cameroon, refineries in Europe and gas stations in New Jersey, belongs to Mr. Putin and Mr. Trump.
(Bloomberg) – Major OPEC+ nations agreed to keep oil production quotas unchanged next month, as conflict in the Middle East continues to shutter swaths of the group’s output.
A sub-group of seven countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia will keep targets steady in November, the coalition said in a statement following a monthly video conference on Sunday. It’s in line with their existing production roadmap.
The plans come as oil futures creep back up to the $100-a-barrel mark and diesel hits records at the pump amid ongoing conflict in the Middle East, spurring Group of Seven nations to release emergency stocks.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies had already signaled that they would pause production quota hikes through the end of this year, after agreeing a series of modest increases in the six months through August.
Those increases, largely symbolic because of the impact the Iran war has had on Persian Gulf output, theoretically unwound cutbacks made in 2023 and may give the group’s Gulf members greater scope to boost output when the conflict abates.
The Iran war has blunted the impact of any decisions the group has made because production in leading OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait remains significantly below levels pumped before the conflict.
The seven-nation sub-group will convene online again on Nov. 1, according to Sunday’s statement. It will likely finalize plans for December at that gathering.
Another OPEC+ body, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, also met online on Sunday and reiterated its “concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure” and their impact on market stability.
The alliance’s next major decision will be whether to restore another layer of halted output taken offline in 2022, a complicated process likely to be shaped by the outcome of an ongoing audit of members’ production capacity.
Policy for next year will be settled at a full ministerial meeting on Nov. 29. The JMMC will hold its next session the same day.
NINEVEH — Two Iraqi soldiers were killed and two wounded on Sunday when an explosive device left by the Islamic State group went off during a search operation in the desert north of Rawa, the Defence Ministry said, four days after the U.S.-led coalition’s mission ended.
The soldiers were from the 7th Infantry Division of the Jazeera Operations Command, and the device exploded in the area of the 27th Infantry Brigade while they were carrying out search and inspection duties, the ministry said. The two wounded were taken to hospital. The army would keep up operations to pursue the group and target its positions, it said.
Leftover devices have repeatedly hit troops clearing ground. On Aug. 11 three soldiers, two of them officers, were wounded when a device went off as they searched sites in Wadi al-Shay, southwest of Daquq, that army aircraft had struck earlier.
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi formally declared the end of the coalition’s mission on Sept. 30, saying Iraq now takes full responsibility for its security, and the last U.S. and coalition forces left Erbil Air Base that day. He has since ordered higher readiness and stepped-up intelligence work across the security forces, said Sabah al-Numan, spokesperson for the commander-in-chief. “After 12 years of joint work to confront terrorism, the need for the international coalition forces to remain has ended, beginning a new phase of bilateral cooperation between Iraq and coalition countries on the basis of mutual respect,” Numan said on Friday. Kurdistan Region Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed said last month that Iraqi and Kurdistan Region forces “can be relied upon to fill that vacuum” and urged Baghdad to build bilateral ties with coalition members.
The group seized large parts of northern and western Iraq in 2014 and was territorially defeated in 2017, and has since operated through sleeper cells and small units, particularly in desert and rural areas.
Robin M. Mills is chief executive of Qamar Energy, and author of The Myth of the Oil Crisis
October 05, 2026
US President Donald Trump has bounced Europe into a risky gamble. On Friday, under threat of a US ban on diesel exports, the Group of Seven major economies agreed to release emergency petroleum stocks. Mr Trump may be looking just to elections in a month, but London, Paris and Berlin risk burning their remaining reserves.
Opening the taps is meant to alleviate the crisis in diesel caused by the US-Iran war. The G7 countries collectively will provide 100 million barrels over four months, split between crude and refined products, and front-loaded with diesel. In return, they have all agreed not to impose restrictions on oil exports – for now.
The Gulf shuttle scheme, guarded by US ships and aviation, appears to have succeeded in restoring crude oil flows to near prewar levels. This comes at a heavy cost in death and injury of mariners, damage to vessels, and hiring and guarding the vessels.
Why diesel is the most vulnerable fuel when faced by geopolitical shocks
Tanker burns in Strait of Hormuz after Iranian attack
Escorting refined product shipments is harder: they are more varied, travel in smaller ships and are usually more flammable than crude. Before the war, the Arab countries within the Gulf exported about 5.5 million barrels daily of refined products, particularly diesel, jet fuel and heavy fuel oil.
That plunged to below 2 million barrels per day when the US began its attack, and has recovered to 3 million bpd or so. Iran added another 900,000 bpd of net exports of refined products and natural gas liquids. This has now fallen to near-zero by sea, and perhaps minor amounts going overland by lorry or rail.
Europe and Japan hold large stocks of petroleum products, especially diesel and petrol, while the US’s strategic petroleum reserve is almost entirely crude oil.
The US has marketed about 130 million barrels, taking its crude stocks down to the lowest levels since the early 1980s. It looks doubtful that it can provide much more without causing permanent damage to the artificial salt caverns that hold the oil. Though this drawdown has helped keep crude prices hovering at relatively moderate levels, that is not the locus of the current crisis – Brent crude closed the week at $102 per barrel, while wholesale diesel in New York is going for $200.
If half the proposed release consists of diesel, it amounts to about 400,000 bpd over four months, replacing about a third of the exports lost this year. That would be helpful, but far from a full or permanent solution.
There is also the oddity that European stocks are not owned by their governments, unlike in the US. Instead, oil companies are mandated to hold more than normal commercial levels. Approval for a release does not necessarily mean that all that diesel comes on the market. Despite the tight conditions, commercial product stocks at the crucial Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub actually rose last month, and are not down much since May, unlike in the US where they have plummeted.
Hard hit from a diesel ban
The proposed prohibition of American diesel exports would have hit Europe hard. The UK and EU import about 270,000 bpd of diesel from the US, a third of their total imports, though this jumped to 420,000 bpd during the worst of the crunch this summer.
It would have hurt other nations too, and would quickly have rebounded on the US as refiners would have cut back runs. The US still imports significant amounts of petrol – a politically more visible and sensitive fuel – and might well have faced retaliatory bans.
Should the Europeans have resisted the demand, or called Mr Trump’s bluff? On the one hand, they worried about a difficult winter. If he had just forbidden sales specifically to Europe, the fuel would have been shuffled around through other countries to end up there anyway. So, to have a real impact, he would have had to impose a blanket ban.
Strategic stocks are made to be used in emergencies. While the US had already emptied much of the SPR in 2022 and hardly refilled it since, European stocks are well above legal minimum levels, and have been rebuilt since 2022. Solidarity between the G7 and the members of the International Energy Agency is fundamental for collective management of energy shocks.
On the other hand, the European countries did not start this war, they are not combatants, and they do not control it. If they burn through their reserves over the next four months, they had better be sure a resolution to the crisis is coming soon. The hazy thinking coming out of the White House and the Pentagon about war aims and strategy does not inspire such confidence.
Polls suggest the Republicans will suffer a drubbing in November’s midterm elections. After that, Mr Trump will find it hard to advance any of his domestic agenda. Many expect he will back down in Iran, perhaps after launching one final thunderclap so he can go home claiming a victory. That itself runs the risk that Tehran miscalculates, and decides to respond in kind rather than absorbing the blow.
But it is at least as likely that, unable to achieve much at home, he will escalate. In turn, if the Iranians had not realised it already, all the headlines inform them that refineries are an Achilles heel. The Ukrainian campaign against Russia tells the same tale.
Refineries in Israel and in all the Gulf states except Oman were damaged earlier this year. Saudi refineries in Jazan and Yanbu have been attacked from Yemen over the past month, and on Saturday, there were reports of a fire and smoke at a refinery in Riyadh.
Europe wants to avoid the worst cases of a US diesel export ban on the one hand, and running short in the middle of a flare-up of the conflict in midwinter. The way it structures its strategic stocks gives it a way out. It can appear to have conceded to Mr Trump’s demands for a big release.
But if its companies do not actually want to sell much of their stocks, that is not the governments’ fault, and will not become apparent for some weeks anyway. By then, the US elections will be over and the next moves by Washington and Tehran may be clearer.
Updated: October 05, 2026, 6:16 AM
From The Precious Metals Summit Beaver Creek, Peter Mercer, SVP Exploration, Alaska at Vizsla Copper Corp. (TSXV: VCU), joins us to discuss why copper’s strength may only be beginning as electric vehicles, batteries and cleaner technologies drive demand while mines become deeper and more difficult to develop.
Peter explains Vizsla Copper’s transaction with Agnico Eagle to acquire the Delta and Helm Bay projects in Alaska. Agnico Eagle is expected to own approximately 19.9% of Vizsla Copper when the transaction closes, increasing to approximately 22% following shareholder approval.
We also discuss the newly staked Miller copper-gold project near the Mount Milligan mine and Vizsla Copper’s largest exploration program to date, with 40,000 metres of drilling across Alaska and British Columbia.
Information for this briefing was found via the sources and the companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
https://thedeepdive.ca/why-agnico-eagle-wants-22-of-vizsla-copper-peter-mercer/
