Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Wednesday 24 June 2026
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Featured

Whitehall to Mansion House to West Africa: The Interconnection Chasm: Sovereigns Redlining

Markets would take Miliband chancellor appointment ‘worse’ than Streeting, predicts Cavendish chief

By: Maisie Grice - Investment Reporter

Skyline of City of London with iconic financial district buildings, highlighting UK investments and economic growth.

The boss of a London-listed investment bank has warned that markets would react “worse” to Ed Miliband as Chancellor than Wes Streeting, as speculation grows over who will take over the Treasury

Starmer’s resignation and Andy Burnham’s widely expected coronation have caused investors to swing their gaze to his future neighbour in No 11. Burnham, the former Manchester Mayor, has sparked nerves among economists and analysts in the past for his comments on bond markets, tax cuts and nationalisation.

Allies of Burnham have said that Rachel Reeves will soon be shown the door if he is to win the leadership, according to reports, with energy secretary Ed Miliband and former health secretary Wes Streeting the frontrunners to replace her. 

Julian Morse, co-chief executive of Cavendish, said Miliband would not be welcomed with open arms.

“I think if the Chancellor is Miliband, I think the markets will take that in a worse way than if it’s Streeting,” he told City AM.

“He absolutely thinks we should be spending as much as we can on the welfare state and as energy minister he’s blocking any of our natural energy.”

Miliband and the net zero fight

Miliband’s tenure in Starmer’s cabinet has triggered backlash from some in industry and the City, with the former Labour leader pushing the UK toward net zero and pledging to make 95 per cent of the national grid carbon-free.

He has also stalled on giving the green light to new exploration projects from Shell and Equinor, refused to ease North Sea drilling licences and argued the government should stick to its electricvehicle mandate, which requires a majority of new car sales to be of all-electric models by 2030.

The Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate legally requires that 80 per cent of new car sales must be of all-electric models by 2030, but the government is preparing to consult on softening this to 50 per cent after industry backlash.

While Morse acknowledged that Miliband’s net zero plans were “for good reason”, he noted the UK is pursuing a net zero policy far more aggressively than major polluters like the US and China.

“We’re at a massive disadvantage, which is costing money, costing us tax receipts which we could be spending on renewables,” Morse said.

“He’s a smart chap…but I think he’s got the wrong angles that he’s going after, the markets would take his appointment worse. 

“They’d come off a bit if he became Chancellor.”

The Streeting difference

In contrast, Morse said the Square Mile would receive’s Streeting more favourably, believing markets could “actually strengthen a bit”.

Streeting has already set out his economic ambitions, previously endorsing a growth report by Mark McVitie for the Labour Growth Group.

The report calls for capital gains taxes to be equalised with incomes taxes alongside an “investment allowance” to be offered to assist start-ups. In contrast to Miliband, Streeting also promised to use emergency laws to fast-track the construction of data centres and critical infrastructure as well as allowing North Sea oil and gas projects to go ahead, arguing that infrastructure investment was advancing at a “glacial pace”.

During a speech last Tuesday, Streeting also took a swipe at Miliband’s 2030 net-zero green house gas emissions deadline, calling it a “short-term arbitrary target”.

He said: “We can’t play fast and loose with public finances. Not when the risks are so high and faith in politics is so low.”

Lurch to the left

Burnham is widely expected by economists and analysts to pursue a more left wing economic agenda than his predecessor. However, he has turned to a group of economic heavyweights in recent weeks, including former Bank of England economist, Andy Haldane, and sacked OBR chief Richard Hughes, to advise on economic policy. In a bid to soothe the markets, he is set to deliver a speech on the economy next week and reiterate his commitment to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal rules, the Times reported.

“Burnham has traditionally been a tax and spender. You go back in history and any high tax economy, growth has suffered. That said, this time round…it sounds like he’s taking advice from people who know what they are talking about,” Morse said.

Morse hailed this move as “really encouraging”, adding that leaders have realised they cannot “ignore the bond markets” and cut taxes in a bid to fuel growth.

“Burnham’s realised the interest rates are already too high, it’s costing us a lot of money to just service our debt…so he’s understanding that he’s got to be really, really careful with that. You can’t just tax everyone to annihilation,” he added.


https://www.cityam.com/markets-would-take-miliband-chancellor-appointment-worse-than-streeting-predicts-cavendish-chief/

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Macro

Iran, Oman Mull Charging Strait of Hormuz 'Maritime Service Fees'

Iran and Oman said Tuesday they would examine charges for what they called maritime service fees in the Strait of Hormuz through a joint working group, pressing ahead with discussions over the strategic waterway despite US opposition to any sort of toll system. 

Issued on: 23/06/2026

By: FRANCE 24

Iran and Oman will study the costs to be charged for services provided in administering the Strait of Hormuz, the two countries said Tuesday, insisting they held sovereignty over the waterway.

Tehran has repeatedly said it plans to charge what it calls maritime service fees for crossing the strait, as opposed to tolls, a plan fiercely opposed by the United States.

Iran deal allows Tehran to charge maritime service fees on Hormuz Strait transit, ministry days

In a joint statement on Tuesday, Iran and Oman emphasised their "sovereign rights over their territorial waters", but Muscat's foreign minister said on X that both sides were committed to "toll-free safe passage".

They "agreed to maintain their dialogue on this issue through a joint working group between the two foreign ministries", the statement said.

The working group was aimed at reaching "agreement on the future administration of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz and the services that will be provided in this regard and the costs associated with them in accordance with international standards", they said.

The statement followed meetings in Muscat between top officials from the two nations. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf met Oman's Sultan Haitham bin Tariq and Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi.

Last week, Iran's foreign ministry said the country would impose what it called maritime service fees for crossing the strait.

Ghalibaf has said the fees will come into effect after a 60-day period without charges that is stipulated in a memorandum of understandingsigned with the United States.

The MOU states that Iran and Oman, which border the strait, will discuss its "future administration and maritime services" alongside other Gulf countries.

The strait, through which roughly 20 percent of the world's crude oil and liquified natural gas normally transits, was closed by Iran after it came under fire from the United States and Israel.

But Iran has since lifted its blockade as part of the deal signed with the US last week.

Prior to the memorandum of understanding, Oman had come under fire from US officials over reports it planned to charge joint tolls with Iran.

US President Donald Trump has threatened that if Oman tries to control the waterway alongside Iran he will "blow them up".

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also said he will sanction Muscat if it helps impose a tolling system.

On Tuesday, Omani Foreign Minister Albusaidi said on X following his meeting with Araghchi and Ghalibaf that "we affirmed commitment to international law and toll-free safe passage".


https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260623-iran-oman-mull-charging-strait-of-hormuz-maritime-service-fees

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Oil and Gas

Domestic and Commercial Cylinder Rates in Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Kolkata on 23 June

LPG price today in your city: Domestic and commercial Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) cylinder rates remained steady on Tuesday, 23 June, across several Indian cities. The last rate hike was implemented on 7 June when price of 14.2 kg domestic LPG cylinder price increased by ₹29. This was the second revision in three months, after the first revision of ₹60 that came about on 7 March.

Earlier this month, the price of 19 kg commercial cylinder surged by around ₹42 in the wake of global energy disruptions, marking the fourth hike since 28 February. Hence, the cost of commercial cylinder surged by nearly 79% in the last four months since it is based on international fuel benchmarks, freight costs and foreign exchange movements. On 1 June, oil marketing companies (OMCs) also increased prices of 5-kg Free Trade LPG (FTL) cylinders by ₹11.

Notably, commercial LPG cylinder prices are revised monthly by state-run OMCs, including Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation. Due the West Asia war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, LPG supplies have been worst-affected. India was highly dependent on imports for 60% of its LPG needs before the war. About 90% these imports came from West Asia which tracked the Saudi Contract Price (CP), set by Saudi Aramco at the start of each month.

In June, the Saudi CP was set at $790 a tonne, about 46% higher than pre-war levels. In the wake of global energy crisis, India is making efforts to diversify its LPG imports, tapping the Russia, Norway and others while US emerged as its top supplier.

Crude prices tumble as investors focus on Hormuz 

Brent crude prices tumbled on Tuesday as investors expected progress in US-Iran peace talks and a restoration of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures declined 0.3% by 20 cents and stood at $77.70 a barrel.

The United States on Monday granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following which crude prices inched down more than 3%. "The gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh on the market," Reuters quoted ING analysts' note.

Positive sentiment flooded the market as two crude tankers with under 2 million barrels of oil sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, signaling that traffic was picking up following weaker flows on Sunday.


https://www.livemint.com/news/india/lpg-price-today-in-your-city-domestic-and-commercial-cylinder-rates-in-delhi-mumbai-bengaluru-kolkata-on-23-june-11782186939662.html

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More Local Petrol Chains Lower Prices as Oil Supply Pressures Ease Ahead of US-Iran Ceasefire

SINGAPORE: More petrol retailers in Singapore have begun lowering fuel prices as global oil prices retreat, following Shell Singapore’s lead amid easing concerns over international supply disruptions.

After Shell reduced its pump prices, Caltex and Sinopec also adjusted their rates, according to data from the Consumers Association of Singapore’s (CASE) Price Kaki app. Despite the recent cuts, Cnergy continues to offer the lowest-priced 95-octane petrol in Singapore at S$2.64 per litre.

Caltex reduced the price of its 95-octane petrol, a grade commonly used by many motorists, from S$3.46 to S$3.42 per litre on Friday night (June 19). Its 92-octane petrol was lowered from S$3.43 to S$3.39 per litre, while premium petrol fell from S$4.16 to S$4.12 per litre.

Sinopec also trimmed its petrol prices, reducing 95-octane fuel from S$3.46 to S$3.42 per litre. The price of its 98-octane petrol dropped from S$3.97 to S$3.93 per litre, while premium petrol was cut from S$4.10 to S$4.06 per litre.

Shell was the first major operator to announce price reductions. Its 95-octane petrol was lowered from S$3.46 to S$3.42 per litre, while 98-octane petrol fell from S$3.98 to S$3.94 per litre. Premium petrol was also reduced from S$4.20 to S$4.16 per litre.

With three fuel retailers having cut prices, Esso now has the highest listed price for 95-octane petrol at S$3.46 per litre. At the other end of the market, Cnergy remains the cheapest option for motorists purchasing the same grade of fuel, at S$2.64 per litre.

The Price Kaki app also showed a reduction in diesel prices at Cnergy, where rates fell from S$2.71 to S$2.64 per litre.

Other fuel retailers have yet to make changes to their diesel prices. Shell, Caltex and Esso continue to list diesel at S$4.22 per litre.

The latest adjustments come as international crude oil prices have declined sharply following reports that the United States and Iran were close to reaching a ceasefire agreement.

After the two countries signed a memorandum of understanding and the Strait of Hormuz reopened, oil prices began retreating from earlier highs. Crude prices, which had previously surged to more than US$120 per barrel, continued to ease and were hovering around US$80 per barrel as of Friday night.

As concerns over global oil supply pressures ease, a number of countries have begun lowering fuel prices. Similar reductions have been reported in China, the United States, Australia and neighbouring Malaysia.


https://theindependent.sg/more-local-petrol-chains-lower-prices-as-oil-supply-pressures-ease-ahead-of-us-iran-ceasefire/

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Ukrainian Strike Destroys Five Oil Storage Tanks at Palkino Oil Pumping Station in Yaroslavl Region

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces (SOF) destroyed five oil storage tanks at the Palkino oil pumping station in Russia’s Yaroslavl region.

Satellite imagery published by the Supernova+ Telegram channel appears to confirm the damage.

The strike was executed on June 14. Ukraine’s SOF said the operation was conducted in coordination with the Russian anti-government resistance group Chernaya Iskra (“Black Spark”).

The oil stored in the damaged tanks burned for several days. A large fire and heavy smoke were visible in satellite imagery.

Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces said that the Palkino oil pumping station is a key component of the Surgut–Polotsk trunk oil pipeline, one of Russia’s major crude oil transportation routes.

Aftermath of the strike on the Palkino oil pumping station in Russia’s Yaroslavl region. June 2026. Photo credits: Supernova+Telegram channel

The station is used to transport crude oil arriving from Siberia, which is then pumped onward to oil refineries and export terminals.

Following the commissioning of the Baltic Pipeline System, the Palkino station became part of Transneft Baltika, a subsidiary of Russia’s state-owned Transneft pipeline operator.

The station became one of the key links in the logistics chain supporting Russian oil exports through the port of Primorsk in Russia’s Leningrad Oblast.

In a separate operation, a Ukrainian drone strike destroyed most of the tank farm at JSC Poltavskaya Oil Depot in Ust-Labinsk, located in Russia’s Krasnodar Krai.

Fire at a Russian oil depot in Ust-Labinsk, Krasnodar Krai, Russia. June 6, 2026. Source: Exilenova+

Most of the depot’s storage facilities were destroyed. Only a few smaller tanks located away from the center of the fire remained intact.

Following the strike, the fire spread across roughly 5,000 square meters. NASA’s FIRMS satellite monitoring system recorded an intense heat anomaly shortly after 4:00 a.m. on June 6, indicating a major blaze at the site.

The Poltavskaya oil depot distributes AI-92 and AI-95 gasoline, several grades of diesel fuel, TS-1 jet fuel (aviation kerosene), fuel oil, and liquefied gas products to customers across Krasnodar Krai and the Republic of Adygea.


https://militarnyi.com/en/news/ukrainian-strike-destroys-five-oil-storage-tanks-at-palkino-oil-pumping-station-in-yaroslavl-region/

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Alternative Energy

Cobalt Miners News For The Month Of June 2026

Jun 23, 2026 at 12:18 PM 

Summary

  • Cobalt spot prices remained flat at US$25.53/lb in July, with LME inventories slightly declining.
  • Cobalt market news - Congo miners seek delay to 5% worker equity rule before July deadline. Chinese recycling crackdown reshapes black mass flows, pressures recycled cobalt market.
  • Cobalt company news - CMOC's DRC Mine threatens to sack striking employees. Nickel 28 reports a very strong Q1 operating performance at Ramu.
  • TMC - NOAA certifies TMC USA’s USA B Exploration License application. Ardea Resources KNP Goongarrie Hub awarded Lead Agency Status by Western Australian Government.
  • Cobalt Blue and Glomar Minerals progressing Project Infinity (includes a polymetallic nodule refinery in U.S).

Cobalt metal ingots with Co chemical element, periodic table tile. 3D rendering

Welcome to the June 2026 cobalt miners news.

The past month saw cobalt prices flat again.

Cobalt price news 

As of June 18, the cobalt spot price was at US$25.53/lb, flat from US$25.53/lb last month. The LME cobalt price is US$56,290/tonne. LME Cobalt inventory is 99 tonnes, down from 104 tonnes last month. More details on cobalt pricing (in particular the more relevant cobalt sulphate), can be found here at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence or Fast Markets MB.

Cobalt spot price long term chart - USD 25.53/lb (source)

Cobalt spot price long term chart D

Daily Metal Price

Cobalt demand v supply forecasts

The new DRC export quota system has likely flipped the ex-DRC market balance from a cobalt surplus to a deficit in 2026 (RHS chart) (source) 

The new DRC export quota system could potentially flip the ex-DRC market balance from a cobalt surplus to a deficit in 2025 (RHS chart)

Cobalt Institute courtesy BMI

The global cobalt market is projected to expand from USD 16.12B in 2025 to USD 34.73B by 2035, at a CAGR of 7.23% (source)

The global cobalt market is projected to expand from USD 16.12B in 2025 to USD 34.73B by 2035, at a CAGR of 7.23%

Research and Markets

Trend Investing v IEA 2021 demand forecast for EV metals (Trend Investing) (IEA)

Trend Investing v IEA demand forecast for EV metals

Trend Investing & the IEA

Cobalt market news

On June 12 Crux Investor reported: 

160% cobalt rally signals higher battery-metal valuations as resource nationalism tightens supply.

  • Battery metals in 2026 are being driven more by government supply controls than by electric-vehicle demand, as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe use export quotas and processing mandates to restrict cobalt, nickel, and lithium supply and support prices. 
  • Congo's quota framework caps 2026 and 2027 cobalt exports at about 96,600 tonnes per year, roughly half of 2024 levels, helping lift cobalt metal about 160% from its February 2025 low to above US$56,000 per tonne. 
  • Stable, Western-aligned projects can command higher valuations and lower financing costs as supply controls increase policy risk in major producing countries. 

On June 17 Fastmarkets reported: 

Chinese recycling crackdown reshapes black mass flows, pressures recycled cobalt market. China’s tightening regulation of its lithium-ion battery recycling sector is increasing black mass flows and accelerating the release of lower-cost recycled cobalt units, Fastmarkets understands. 

On June 19 Kitco reported: 

Congo miners seek delay to 5% worker equity rule before July deadline... Miners request moratorium. A January 30 circular, seen by Reuters this month, requires miners to allocate the 5% stake to Congolese workers and submit proof of compliance...Major miners including Eurasian Resources Group, Ivanhoe, Glencore and China’s CMOC met the chamber on June 11 to coordinate a response, the executive said. Glencore and Ivanhoe declined to comment, while CMOC and ERG did not immediately respond...A second union leader said miners had previously allocated about 3% to worker-linked schemes, but that oversight of the funds lacked transparency. “That is why the government wants them to increase it to 5%"... 


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4917022-cobalt-miners-news-month-of-june-2026?source=feed_all_articles

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Precious Metals

Hindustan Zinc Drops 5% as Global Silver Prices Crash

Hindustan Zinc

Hindustan Zinc Limited hit an intraday low of Rs 544 on 23 June, sliding 5% as global silver prices crashed 5% through the session.

Silver is not a side story for this company. It contributes 24% of total sales revenue and, because it comes out as a byproduct of zinc smelting at almost no extra cost, it accounts for 45% of overall profitability.

When silver falls hard, Hindustan Zinc feels it almost immediately. Global spot silver dropped 5% to $61.90 per ounce on Tuesday, touching its lowest point since 11 June.

Back home, near-month silver futures fell by Rs 2.25 lakh per kilogram. Month-to-date, silver is now down 15%, wiping out all the gains from May.

The trigger behind the precious metals sell-off is rising concern over US interest rates. Fed officials have signalled a possible rate hike in 2026 if inflation stays sticky.

Higher rates are bad news for silver and gold since they offer no interest income. Traders now price an 88% chance of a December rate hike, up from 61% just last week.

Investors are waiting on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures data, due Thursday, for the next clue on where rates go. June has been a rough month for the stock overall.

The shares had already lost 14% before Tuesday’s fall, weighed down by an Enforcement Directorate visit to Vedanta offices and media reports suggesting the government may sell up to a 2% stake in the company.

The government holds close to 28% in Hindustan Zinc, India’s largest silver producer, while promoter Vedanta holds around 61%.

Hindustan Zinc closed at Rs 546.00 on NSE on 23 June, down 4.75% for the day. The stock is now 25% below its 52-week high of Rs 733, hit in January 2026.


https://www.equitypandit.com/hindustan-zinc-drops-5-as-global-silver-prices-crash/

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Base Metals

Vedanta’s CopperTech Metals Targets US$3.6 Billion Valuation in U.S. IPO

Martin Pradier, materials analyst at Veritas Investment, joins BNN Bloomberg to share his Hot Picks in materials.

CopperTech Metals is targeting a valuation of up to US$3.57 billion in its U.S. initial public offering, joining a wave of companies tapping the busy summer IPO market.

The U.S.-domiciled copper and cobalt producer is seeking up to $423.5 million by offering 23.5 million shares priced between $16 and $18 apiece, it said on Tuesday.

The IPO market has picked up pace after a brief lull in March as buoyant stock markets and strong investor appetite have created a more favourable backdrop for new listings.

E-bike startup Lime, silver miner Sinda, digital infrastructure firm ITG, and Italian technology firm Bending Spoons also launched their U.S. IPOs this week.

Vedanta Resources, owned by Indian billionaire Anil Agarwal, launched CopperTech Metals last year. CopperTech owns and operates Konkola Copper Mines in Zambia’s Copperbelt province.

The offering comes as CopperTech plans to spend $2.7 billion over the next five fiscal years to ramp up copper production at Konkola to an average of roughly 270 kilotonnes per annum from fiscal 2030.

Demand for copper is surging, underpinned by the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure, grid modernization and electrification.

Vedanta has invested over $3 billion in Konkola and held majority ownership since 2004. The firm regained control of Konkola in July 2024 after the asset was seized by Zambia’s previous administration of former president Edgar Lungu in 2019.

Konkola is 79.4 per cent owned by CopperTech, while Zambia’s ZCCM Investment owns the rest.

Citigroup and Cantor are joint book-running managers. CopperTech will list on the NYSE under the symbol “CUX.”

(Reporting by Arasu Kannagi Basil in Bengaluru; Editing by Diti Pujara and Tasim Zahid)


https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investing/commodities/2026/06/23/vedantas-coppertech-metals-targets-us36-billion-valuation-in-us-ipo/

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Copper Giant Stretches its Legs at Mocoa

Copper Giant Resources (TSX-V:CGNT) has reported deep drilling results that extend mineralisation below the current conceptual pit at its Mocoa copper-molybdenum project located in Colombia’s Putumayo Department, approximately 10km from the town of Mocoa.

Deep infill hole MD-064 returned 1,052m of mineralisation, including 486m grading 0.57% copper equivalent (0.41% copper and 0.029% molybdenum), exceeding the current mineral resource estimate average of 0.51% copper equivalent.

The hole also delivered the first modern confirmation of the western breccia system, establishing a third drill-tested mineralised breccia corridor at Mocoa alongside the existing central and eastern corridors.

Directional daughter hole MD-063 extended continuous mineralisation below the current conceptual pit through ground previously modelled as waste.

The hole returned 808m of 0.31% copper equivalent (0.20% copper and 0.021% molybdenum) from the kick-off point, including 303m of 0.41% copper equivalent starting from 541m downhole.

“These two holes do something more valuable than chasing a high number. MD-064 confirms the continuity and grade of the deposit across more than a kilometre of core, which leads us to believe the resource model we will build the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) on is sound,” VP of Exploration Edwin Naranjo Sierra says.

“MD-063 shows the system continuing below the current pit, in ground we had modelled as waste, and the first modern confirmation of the western breccia tells us Mocoa is a larger, multi-centre system than the current resource captures.“

The results validate the geological model behind the company’s 1.12 billion tonne inferred resource containing 12.7 billion pounds (Blb) of copper equivalent, including 7.7Blb of copper at 0.31% copper and 1.0Blb of molybdenum at 0.039% molybdenum.

Copper Giant Resources controls more than 128,300 hectares of tenure covering a significant portion of the Jurassic porphyry belt within the northern Andes.

Mineralisation remains open toward the La Estrella target area, where the company’s third drill rig is conducting maiden drilling.

The results increase geological confidence in the resource model and set expectations for potential additional resource growth ahead of the PEA.

Images: Copper Giant Resources


https://mining.com.au/copper-giant-stretches-its-legs-at-mocoa/

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Steel

The Chinese Steel Market is Experiencing a Prolonged Downturn in Demand – Experts

shutterstock.com

The Chinese steel market is experiencing a prolonged slowdown in demand rather than a sharp decline, according to a report by Bloomberg following an industry event in Singapore.

Last year, steel production in the country stood at 961 million tonnes, which is almost 10 per cent below the peak of 1.065 billion tonnes in 2020.

During this period, China lost around 83 million tonnes of apparent demand for construction rebar due to the country’s property crisis, said Zhao Jinkui, deputy secretary-general of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA).

However, in a broader sense, according to independent analyst Jiang Li, China’s demand for all types of steel last year was only 3.1 per cent lower than the 2020 level.

“Demand for steel in China is shifting from a model centred on property and construction towards a high-level rebalancing driven by manufacturing, infrastructure support and the energy transition,” she noted.

This means that sectors such as shipbuilding, new energy equipment and advanced manufacturing have absorbed a significant portion of the decline. Jiang explained that market expectations of a ‘sharp drop’ in demand are misplaced; consumption will decline gradually until 2050.

Yilin Wang, general manager of the research division at China Mineral Resources Group, forecasts that the government’s efforts to reduce excess capacity will lead to a fall in China’s steel production to 900 million tonnes by 2030. The expansion of markets in India and South-East Asia will further reduce the country’s share of the global market.

Exports have long served as a ‘safety net’ for Chinese steel producers, but the global trade landscape is changing. Traditional buyers are imposing tariffs to protect their industries, and Chinese mills are being forced to seek out other markets. The European CBAM has become a further complication for exporters.

At the same time, CISA advises the country’s steelmakers to organise maintenance and production control flexibly in the short term (during the off-season) based on actual order volumes, reports Kallanish. Industry profits are falling due to rising costs and weakening demand; the domestic market for steel products continued its downward trend in June, a trend that has been observed since the end of May.

It should be noted that, for the period January–May, China’s steelmakers reduced steel production by 3.9% year-on-year – to 415.5 million tonnes. Rolled steel output for the same period fell by 1.5% year-on-year to 593 million tonnes.


https://gmk.center/en/news/the-chinese-steel-market-is-experiencing-a-prolonged-downturn-in-demand-experts/amp/

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Global Steel Production Fell by 0.3% y/y in May

shutterstock.com

Global steel production in May 2026 fell by 0.3% year-on-year to 157.9 million tonnes. This is according to the World Steel Association’s global ranking of steel-producing countries (70).

Total steel production in the CIS countries plus Ukraine fell by 4.8% year-on-year during the month but rose by 11.6% month-on-month to 6.7 million tonnes. Ukraine produced 629.4 thousand tonnes in May, which is 21.7% more than in the previous month, but 1% less year-on-year.

According to World Steel, the top ten steel-producing countries in May were:

China – 84.4 million tonnes (-2.7% year-on-year);

India – 14.1 million tonnes (+1.9%);

USA – 7.5 million tonnes (+9.2%);

Japan – 7 million tonnes (+1.7%);

Russia – 5.6 million tonnes (-5.4%);

South Korea – 5.4 million tonnes (+3.3%);

Turkey – 3.4 million tonnes (+8.9%);

Germany – 3.2 million tonnes (+7.3%);

Brazil – 2.8 million tonnes (+2.4%);

Vietnam – 2.6 million tonnes (+27.2%).

Global steel production for January–May totalled 773.1 million tonnes (-1.5% year-on-year). In the CIS countries and Ukraine, 31.6 million tonnes of steel were produced during this period, which is 9.6% less than in the same period last year.

Photo – Global steel production fell by 0.3% y/y in May

As reported by GMK Center, global steel production fell by 2% year-on-year in 2025 – to 1.8 billion tonnes. Total steel production in the CIS countries and Ukraine fell by 4.4% year-on-year last year to 81.3 million tonnes. China reduced output by 4.4% year-on-year (960.8 million tonnes), India increased it by 10.4% year-on-year (164.9 million tonnes), and the US by 3.1% year-on-year (82 million tonnes).


https://gmk.center/en/news/global-steel-production-fell-by-0-3-y-y-in-may/amp/

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Nucor has Increased the Price of Hot-Rolled Coils by $5/t

Photo – Nucor has increased the price of hot-rolled coils by $5/t

The new level stands at $1,130 per short tonne

US steel producer Nucor has once again raised its spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil by $5 per short tonne compared with the previous week. This was reported by Steel Market Update.

The new offer price currently stands at $1,130 per short tonne.

The CSP for the joint venture California Steel Industries (CSI) has also risen by $5 per short tonne to $1,180 per short tonne.

Delivery times remain unchanged at 3 to 5 weeks.

Nucor has been raising its spot price for hot-rolled coil every week since 27 January this year. The increases have ranged from $5 to $15 per short tonne. Nucor announced the most significant increase (of $15 per short tonne) on 2 March.

According to Kallanish’s estimates, as of 17 June, the price of HRC in the United States remained within the range of $1,095–1,105 per short tonne.

In the coming months, HRC prices in the US are likely to remain at high levels due to sufficient demand and seasonal plant shutdowns. At the same time, as import supply increases and market supply gradually improves, the pace of price rises may slow.

It should be noted that global prices for hot-rolled coils showed mixed trends in May. In the European market, average monthly offers fell by 2–4%, whilst in China and the US there was a slight increase of 3–4%.


https://gmk.center/en/news/nucor-has-increased-the-price-of-hot-rolled-coils-by-5-t/

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SMM Global Steel Daily Report

6.23 SMM Global Steel Daily Report

[Slab] Today, HRC export prices fell by USD 1/tonne day-on-day, with HRC transaction prices at USD 492–501/tonne. Other flat steel prices were also lowered by USD 1–2/tonne. Although domestic export offers continued to decline, traders said overseas demand has not shown any clear recovery. 

[Rebar] Today, rebar export FOB prices edged down by USD 1/tonne. Market participants reported that enquiries remained relatively muted, with no significant improvement in transactions. Participants continued to adopt a wait-and-see stance. 

[Billet] Today, export billet offers remained weak but stable, currently quoted at USD 465–468/tonne. Market feedback indicated that Southeast Asia is currently in its traditional demand off-season, while buyers in the Middle East largely remained on the sidelines. Overseas customers showed limited willingness to place orders, and domestic export offers still lacked a clear competitive advantage, leaving transactions generally moderate.


https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/103967928-MMi-Daily-Iron-Ore-Report-June-23

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