'Busan Agreement' explained: What the US-China trade truce means for world trade
Synopsis
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the extension of the Busan Agreement until January 10, 2027. This extension allows both sides more time to negotiate without facing immediate tariff threats. The Busan Agreement was initially established to ease trade tensions between the US and China last year. Key areas of focus include agriculture and non-tariff barriers that require further discussion.
Washington and Beijing had agreed to extend the so-called Busan Agreement until January 10, giving the two sides more time to work on their economic relationship.
The agreement was originally due to expire on November 10.
“We have agreed today that we will extend what we call the Busan agreement, the economic detente between the two countries,” Bessent told Fox News, adding that the extension would give them more time to work on the economic front.
The announcement comes after Bessent held talks with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week. It also keeps in place a truce that has helped prevent the world's two biggest economies from slipping back into the kind of tariff escalation seen last year.
Alex Flores walks on a dry area of Lake Titicaca, Latin America's largest freshwater basin, as it is edging towards record low levels, on Cojata Island, Bolivia October 26, 2023. REUTERS/Claudia Morales/File Photo
Bolivian President Rodrigo Paz has signed a decree establishing a nationwide state of emergency to accelerate the deployment of financial resources and rescue teams to regions affected by severe drought and flooding.
The measure comes as drought conditions continue to affect 78,000 families across six of Bolivia's nine departments, while more than 75,000 cattle have been lost, according to official reports.
Paz warned that the approaching El Niño weather pattern could worsen conditions across the country, saying it would have "very severe impacts in terms of drought and floods", says Al Jazeera.
He also called for coordinated action among public institutions, saying Bolivia needs "the cooperation of all institutions".
In addition to the drought, authorities face the risk of further flooding. Floodwaters in the Santa Cruz region killed dozens of people in December 2025.
The crisis comes amid wider weather-related disruptions across South America. Chile's capital, Santiago, recently recorded its rainiest October on record, while wildfires in Peru, exacerbated by severe weather conditions, killed at least 12 people.
Scientists have warned that the current El Niño cycle could become the "strongest in recorded history".
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported a "nearly 100 per cent likelihood" that the weather pattern will persist through February 2027.
Research has also indicated that El Niño could lead to "more than 450,000 deaths globally", with poorer nations expected to face a disproportionate share of the impact.
The phenomenon is projected to peak towards the end of 2026, with secondary effects expected to continue into 2027.
Whisper it, but are Tuesday’s US midterms a bit of a non-event? Perhaps, but that risks overlooking some potentially significant economic consequences.
America’s vote has created surprisingly little conversation in recent weeks. No doubt, that is because the range of plausible outcomes has narrowed. The Senate race still hangs on a knife edge, but the House looks increasingly likely to fall to the Democrats. Clean sweep or not, Washington is heading for divided government.
That sounds like a recipe for inaction. But gridlock could increase the importance of areas where the president still has room to act. Here are three areas where I think the midterms could have global consequences...
3 Scenarios for the US Midterms
Source: ING
First, the Middle East.
My colleague James Knightley recently argued that a split or Democrat-run Congress could pull Donald Trump in two directions: emboldening him to double down on the Iran war, while inviting greater pushback from lawmakers.
Gridlock makes domestic legislation harder, increasing the temptation to focus on areas where executive power is greater, including foreign policy. At the same time, a Democrat clean sweep would give the party more confidence to challenge the White House on Iran, potentially including over war-related funding.
But the new Congress does not take office until January. The more immediate question is what happens after Tuesday. Is Washington making a final push to lower oil prices? JD Vance’s letter to Iran this week was the clearest sign of diplomacy in some time. Or is the US preparing for fresh strikes once the midterms are out of the way and the political cost of higher gasoline prices becomes less pressing? Reports of additional US military capabilities in the region point in that direction.
Markets are clearly more worried about the latter. But if escalation does not materialise, our commodities team thinks some of the sizeable risk premium embedded in energy prices could unwind.
That matters enormously for Europe. Eurozone inflation could plausibly hit 4% next week, and that’s biased to go even higher so long as natural gas prices keep rising. If nothing else, expect elevated inflation until next summer, as I argued last week. The Bank of England is poised to hike next week for precisely this reason.
Source: Macrobond, ING
Second, AI.
I don’t need to tell you how central this is to the US growth story. This week’s strong GDP data reminded us of that. AI-related investment is rising by more than 20% year-on-year, while CapEx away from the build-out is still struggling for momentum.
But it won’t have escaped your attention that AI is becoming a political issue too. Voters are increasingly vocal about the rapid build-out of infrastructure, particularly data centres. An eye-catching poll from The Economist showed Democrat support surging this year among people living within 2km of a data centre, a group it estimates at around 12 million Americans. That is a serious number of American voters.
The immediate federal consequences may be limited. Permitting battles are often state and local issues, while attempts by Congress to unwind federal tax incentives or pro-construction policies could run into a presidential veto. But the midterms look like a marker for just how politically contentious the AI build-out could become ahead of the next presidential election in 2028. Given how dependent US equity markets have become on the AI story, and how shaky certain corners of the AI trade are starting to look, this whole issue matters well beyond Washington.
Source: Macrobond, ING
Third, Fiscal Policy and Tariffs.
America’s fiscal trajectory looks ugly on almost every metric. The federal deficit is around 6% of GDP, and there is little evidence of appetite in Congress for meaningful consolidation. Last year’s tax bill was an obvious opportunity to change direction. It was missed. The divided government makes another serious attempt over the next two years even less likely.
It’s a stark contrast with the UK and Italy, both of which released sensible budgets this week, and both look markedly better on public finances right now. Italy in particular is often tarred with the same brush as the US on fiscal policy, despite running a primary surplus.
Back to the US, though, because fiscal gridlock could push attention back towards trade policy. Remember tariffs? After the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s emergency tariffs, temporary 10% blanket rates ultimately gave way to a more permanent structure under Section 301. The issue has since slipped remarkably far down the agenda.
Source: Macrobond, ING
But like foreign policy, trade is another power the president can wield unilaterally without Congress. Could we see the administration go after its trading partners – Europe in particular – with higher tariffs once again?
In theory, this would matter a lot for inflation and the Fed. Chair Kevin Warsh has repeatedly noted that roughly half of the inflation basket is running above 3%, and our analysis suggests tariffs explain a decent chunk of that. Then again, the refunds from the tariffs struck down in court have started rolling in and have further to run. Over the summer, as the chart above shows, those rebates exceeded the gross revenue from tariffs.
So yes, Tuesday evening might indeed be a quiet night for financial markets. But what happens next could make for a much noisier 2027.
James Smith
THINK Ahead in Developed Markets
United States (James Knightley)
UK (James Smith)
Eurozone (Bert Colijn)
Key Events in Developed Markets
Source: Refinitiv, ING
Overnight on November 1, drones attacked the city of Kstovo in Russia’s Nizhny Novgorod region, home to the major Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez oil refinery. Local residents reported numerous explosions, while several fires were observed at the facility.
Damage to an industrial facility in the Kstovo district was confirmed by Nizhny Novgorod regional governor Gleb Nikitin.
According to local authorities, the region came under a large-scale drone attack throughout the night and morning. The governor said more than 100 drones had been destroyed and that an industrial facility in the Kstovo district had sustained significant damage. Preliminary reports indicated no casualties.
Videos showing explosions and a huge plume of smoke following the attack on the Kstovo refinery circulated on social media. According to the Telegram channel Exilenova+, the fire may have broken out near the AVT-5 and AVT-6 units, a vacuum residue visbreaking unit, or unit 35/11-600. The exact location of the strike has not yet been established.
Lukoil-Nizhegorodnefteorgsintez is one of Russia’s largest oil refineries, producing fuels and lubricants. Its processing capacity is approximately 17 million tonnes of crude oil per year, or around 340,000 barrels per day.
The governor warned that repair work could lead to temporary power outages and disruptions to hot water and heating supplies in some areas.
The consequences of the attack and the extent of the damage to the facility are still being assessed. Meanwhile, queues have already formed at local petrol stations, with Kstovo residents rushing to buy up the remaining fuel supplies.
By Alex Kimani - Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT
Over the past couple of decades, Europe has pursued some of the world’s most ambitious clean energy policies, aiming to become the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. Hardly surprisingly, Europe is now further along the clean energy transition compared to its western peers, with renewables accounting for roughly half of the continent’s power mix compared to about 26% by the U.S. However, Europe is now being forced to reckon with its decision to ditch some of its fossil fuel assets as yet another global energy crisis unfolds just years after the 2022 energy crisis. Over the past 20 years, Europe has aggressively phased down its oil refineries, shutting down about a quarter of its plants and reducing processing capacity by roughly 10%, with EU policymakers anticipating that the green transition would steadily shrink domestic demand for gasoline and diesel. A lot of the attrition was driven by onerous environmental rules and harsh penalties for non-compliance. To wit, under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), refineries face a declining cap on carbon emissions and receive fewer free pollution allowances over time, sharply increasing the cost of operating their facilities, while stricter environmental rules and pollution limits under the Industrial Emissions Directive (IED) mandate expensive retrofits and continuous compliance costs for heavy polluters, negatively impacting oil refining margins.
Consequently, the continent has been forced to rely more heavily on imported refined products, exposing it to geopolitical risks. The Iran and Ukraine wars have led to a spike in oil and gas prices, with EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen terming geopolitical instability and the prolonged diesel squeeze a “wake-up call” for the bloc. European natural gas prices shot past €100 per megawatt-hour on Friday, the highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, as Middle East disruptions choked off LNG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz and on fears of a renewed hot war after the U.S. midterm elections. The energy shock has added more than €100 billion, or about $111 billion, to the continent’s import bills, exposing the vulnerabilities of dismantling domestic fossil-fuel infrastructure before clean alternatives were ready to handle a worst-case scenario.
Central European nations like Poland, Czechia, and Slovakia have been pressuring the European Commission to establish a long-term protective strategy for Europe’s oil refineries. They have called for refineries to be protected from carbon leakage and given access to EU funds to upgrade. They have argued that the EU’s strict climate rules could leave the bloc too dependent on foreign fuel imports, and demanded that Europe’s ETS should adequately factor in the international competition refineries face, easing administrative and financial conditions that hinder facility upgrades.
And now, Brussels is looking to rethink its long-standing approach to the domestic oil-refining industry. On Wednesday, the European Commission launched the first High-Level Dialogue with the European oil refining sector. Co-chaired by Dan Jørgensen (Commissioner for Energy and Housing) and Andrius Kubilius (Commissioner for Defence and Space), the forum discussed Europe’s energy security, industrial competitiveness and defense readiness amid recurring geopolitical disruptions. Participants mapped out short-term responses to supply disruptions stemming from ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, noting that EU refineries currently supply approximately 70% of jet fuel and 85% of diesel consumed across Europe.
The initiative took a serious look at the security implications of Europe’s energy crisis, with Commissioner Kubilius emphasizing that fuel supplies are crucial for military mobility and overall defense readiness. Under NATO’s force readiness models, the alliance must be capable of deploying and fully supplying 100,000 troops within the first 10 days of a crisis, creating a large and sudden demand for tactical fuel.
The concern here is that crude oil imports cannot simply replace refined products during an active conflict if processing infrastructure is missing. Under the AccelerateEU framework, the EU will now revise current regulations to ensure strategic fuel stocks are easily accessible for military operations in exceptional circumstances. Kubilius also called for more resilient fuel infrastructure and for the expansion of the Cold War-era Central Europe Pipeline System to improve supply lines to the eastern flank.
Interestingly, the Commission also announced plans for a joint roadmap with the industry on the sector’s transformation, including investment in alternative fuels such as biofuels and e-fuels.
The policy pivot introduces a friction point between the bloc’s defense requirements and the EU’s long-term green transition. The EU now has to perform a delicate balancing act that addresses these harsh realities while pursuing its climate goals.
The global mineral fertilizer market is showing signs of stabilization in late October 2026 following earlier price increases. According to BINFIELD analysts, buying activity is gradually slowing, while high inventories and rising supplies in certain segments are creating conditions for potential price declines. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks, logistics constraints, and seasonal demand fluctuations continue to influence the market.
In the nitrogen fertilizer segment, buyers have become more cautious due to high urea prices and expectations of a new import tender in India. Demand from Europe and Brazil remains stable, although purchasing activity has slowed. Rising urea exports from China are adding further pressure on prices. Meanwhile, the ammonium sulfate market remains relatively balanced, supported by stable supplies from China and demand from Brazil.
The phosphate fertilizer market is showing mixed price trends. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) prices are gradually declining due to weak demand and sufficient stocks in India and Pakistan, while monoammonium phosphate (MAP) prices remain more resilient. Buyers in South Asia are postponing new purchases in anticipation of more favorable prices. Meanwhile, a correction in sulfur prices following a sharp increase in the third quarter could reduce phosphate fertilizer production costs.
Potash fertilizer prices remain relatively stable, although high inventories in China and subdued demand are increasing downside risks. Indonesia continues to purchase muriate of potash (MOP), while the return of Belarusian products to the US market is expanding supply. At the same time, logistics constraints in Europe and Russia are partially limiting price declines.
Future trends in the global fertilizer market will depend on purchasing activity among major importers, production volumes, and logistics conditions. China’s negotiations over 2027 potash contracts will be particularly important in setting new price benchmarks. According to BINFIELD, high inventories and cautious demand currently provide little support for a sustained increase in mineral fertilizer prices.
by Staff reporter
17 hrs ago | 181 Views
Zimbabwe's Speaker of Parliament Jacob Mudenda has urged citizens to reduce their consumption of sadza or isitshwala and switch to porridge to conserve maize meal amid fears of a devastating El Niño-induced drought that could leave millions facing food shortages.
Addressing legislators during the 2027 Pre-Budget Seminar in Bulawayo on Friday, Mudenda warned that the Government might struggle to feed vulnerable communities if the country experiences another severe drought.
He cautioned that relying entirely on Government assistance could have devastating consequences, including loss of life.
"If we rely only on the fiscus, some people will die of hunger," Mudenda told lawmakers.
The Speaker called for a nationwide campaign encouraging households to conserve food, reduce waste and adopt eating habits that would help stretch available grain supplies.
He suggested that Zimbabweans replace thick maize meal dishes such as sadza and isitshwala with thinner porridge, arguing that the latter requires less maize meal and could help families preserve their stocks for longer.
Mudenda drew parallels with the devastating drought of 1957, recalling how families adapted their eating habits to survive food shortages.
"I was a toddler in 1957. Instead of cooking isitshwala, you cook porridge," he said.
"Yes, let everybody drink porridge. If you cook porridge, you save on mealie-meal. Tell the people that no sadza should be thrown away."
He said families had also reduced their daily meals from three to two during previous droughts as part of efforts to manage limited food supplies.
Mudenda urged parliamentarians to educate their constituencies about food conservation and the importance of avoiding unnecessary waste before shortages become widespread.
His warning comes amid concerns that southern Africa could experience another difficult agricultural season associated with El Niño, a climate phenomenon linked to warming waters in the Pacific Ocean that can contribute to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in the region.
Zimbabwe remains particularly vulnerable to drought because millions of rural households depend on rain-fed agriculture for food production and livelihoods.
The devastating 2023-2024 El Niño drought severely affected agricultural production across southern Africa, destroying crops and leaving millions of people requiring humanitarian assistance.
Mudenda warned that another prolonged dry spell could place additional pressure on national grain reserves, household food supplies and Government finances.
He called on Treasury to prioritise social protection programmes in the forthcoming 2027 National Budget to ensure vulnerable communities receive adequate assistance.
"The Super El Niño is coming. The 2027 budget therefore should fortify social protection safety nets through which the Government honours its pledge to leave no one and no place behind," he said.
The Speaker also urged MPs to exercise their oversight responsibilities to ensure that food assistance reaches deserving beneficiaries without discrimination or unnecessary delays.
He said preparations should begin immediately rather than waiting until drought conditions result in widespread hunger.
The warnings come as Zimbabwe continues efforts to strengthen agricultural resilience through irrigation development, improved water management and increased grain production.
However, the possibility of another severe drought has raised concerns about the country's ability to protect households already struggling with the cost of living.
Mudenda's proposal to reduce maize consumption highlights the growing urgency surrounding food security as the Government prepares to present its 2027 National Budget on November 19.
While the severity of the coming rainy season remains uncertain, the Speaker maintained that early conservation measures and stronger social protection systems would be critical to preventing a humanitarian crisis.
https://bulawayo24.com/index-id-news-sc-national-byo-267807.html#google_vignette
Gold prices tumbled to their one-year low in October, marking their worst monthly performance in years. Silver and platinum also saw significant declines over the past one month amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, crude oil price volatility and inflation concerns.
As November begins, let’s take a closer look at how gold, silver and platinum performed in October, and which metal was the worst hit in the month.
Gold price today
International gold prices fell to their one-year low levels amid rising energy prices and persistent inflation concerns. International gold price fell below $ 3,900 per ounce on Friday, October 30, as per Trading Economics data.
Silver price today
Mirroring the weakness across the precious metals market, silver prices also saw sharp declines. The white metal plunged below $ 50 an ounce for the first time since November 2025. The sharp dip in the precious metal came as investors assessed growing expectations of elevated US interest rates for longer duration.
Platinum
Platinum dipped below $ 1,500 per ounce and reached its lowest since September 2025 on Friday, as per Trading Economics data. The weakness in the precious metal came as investment outlaws and weaker demand outlook weighed on investors sentiment.
Gold vs silver vs platinum
Out of the three precious metals, silver saw the worst monthly decline in October of 19.17%, as per Trading Economics data, followed by platinum which declined 16.65% on a monthly basis. Gold declined 7.23% on a monthly basis. On a yearly basis, platinum remained as the biggest loser with 8% decline.
Gold-silver ratio climbs to highest since December
The recent sell-off in the precious metals market has again changed the gold-silver ratio, which has climbed to the highest level since December. It means that now it takes more ounces of silver to purchase the same measure of gold.
What’s mining without the money to get it out of the ground?
With copper demand in focus, critical minerals attracting strategic interest, and bulk commodities making a comeback, there’s plenty for mining investors to consider.
Dan Porter, managing director of corporate advisory at Tribeca, joined us on the floor at IMARC 2026.
Key topics discussed:
About the guest and company:
Dan Porter is a managing director in Tribeca’s corporate advisory team. Tribeca Group is an investment and advisory business active in natural resources and capital markets. Porter specialises in capital raising, deal origination, and structuring, supporting resources companies across different stages of development.
The POSCO Labor Union will hold a membership vote on the tentative agreement for this year’s wage negotiations on the 7th. Labor and management tentatively agreed on the 30th of last month to a 2.6% base-pay increase and payments totaling 6 million won, including an incentive. Reaching an agreement ahead of the third strike the union had announced for the 2nd of this month has also eased concerns about production disruptions from an expanded strike.
According to POSCO and the POSCO Labor Union of the Federation of Korean Metalworkers’ Trade Unions (FKMTU), which is affiliated with the Federation of Korean Trade Unions (FKTU), the union will hold a vote on the tentative agreement from 6 a.m. to 5 p.m. on the 7th. If it wins majority approval, this year’s wage negotiations will be finalized.
The tentative agreement includes a 2.6% increase in base pay and payments totaling 6 million won: a 3.5 million won target-achievement incentive, 2 million won in settlement and labor-management harmony incentives, and 500,000 won in local gift certificates.
The agreement released by the union also includes a special advancement by three salary steps and an increase in holiday bonuses. The holiday bonus will include a payment of 2 million won plus an additional 20% of base pay, with the percentage-based portion rising to 30% from 2028 onward. The parties also agreed to add a shift holiday allowance, increase the on-site and maintenance allowances, and improve medical expense support, including coverage for spouses and children.
POSCO and the union began wage negotiations on June 16 and held around 30 rounds of working-level and full negotiations over about 140 days. When their differences over pay increases and improved working conditions remained unresolved, the union staged two partial strikes in September. The union had announced that if negotiations made no progress, it would begin a third strike on the 2nd of this month, with no end date and an expanded scope. However, labor and management reached a tentative agreement at full negotiations held at the company’s headquarters in Pohang on the 30th of last month.
POSCO said that, in light of the difficult business environment—including slowing steel demand at home and abroad and the spread of global protectionism—labor and management had agreed to work toward stabilizing operations at the earliest opportunity and cooperating with each other. In an internal message to union members, POSCO Labor Union Chairman Kim Seong-ho said the tentative agreement was the best possible outcome, achieved through the union leadership’s efforts to reflect the wishes of its members.
