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Wednesday 07 October 2026
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The "Bolsonaro Effect": Unpacking Brazil’s Structural Asset Re-Rating

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Oil and Gas

Korea Averts Feared November Oil Crunch

석유공사 '우리나라 비축유 206.9일분…IEA 권고한 90일분 상회' (서울=연합뉴스) 한국석유공사는 23일 김동섭 사장 주재로 석유 위기 대응 긴급 점검 회의를 열고 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄 가능성 등 중동 정세 악화에 따른 석유 수급 위기 대응 체계를 점검했다. 우리나라는 정부 및 민간 부문을 합해 국제에너지기구(IEA) 권고 기준인 90일분을 상회하는 총 206.9일분의 비축유를 보유하고 있다. 이 가운데 석유공사는 전국 9개 비축기지에 총 116.5일분의 정부 비축유를 관리하고 있다. 사진은 한국석유공사 서산 비축기지 전경. 2025.6.23 [한국석유공사 제공. 재판매 및 DB 금지] photo@yna.co.kr/2025-06-23 16:34:30/

The Korea National Oil Corporation’s oil storage facility in Seosan, South Chungcheong, is seen on June 23, 2025. KOREA NATIONAL OIL CORPORATION

Korea has secured more than 90 percent of its November crude oil and naphtha needs, easing concerns over Middle East supply disruptions.

Korea may be dodging a feared November oil crunch after securing more than 90 percent of the crude oil and naphtha supplies it needs for next month.

Korea has secured October crude oil imports at 100 percent of last year's monthly average and more than 90 percent for November, the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources said Tuesday at a briefing by its Middle East war response headquarters.

The amount of crude oil secured for November has increased by about 20 percentage points from the more than 70 percent the government said it had secured in mid-September.

The supply outlook for naphtha, a key feedstock for the petrochemical industry, has also improved.

The government said it has secured enough naphtha for October to cover more than 100 percent of domestic demand and is working on additional contracts to secure more than 90 percent of November demand.

The figures are likely to ease fears that Korea's refiners and petrochemical makers could run short of feedstock from November if Middle East supply disruptions continue.

Concerns over supplies grew in Korea’s energy industry after the war in the Middle East intensified in mid-September and crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, faced disruptions.

Anxiety in the global oil market intensified further after foreign media reported that U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories had fallen to their lowest level since 1982.

(서울=뉴스1) 이종수 기자 = 3일 한국석유공사 유가정보시스템 오피넷이 발표한 9월 5주차 국내 석유제품 가격 동향에 따르면 전국 주유소 휘발유 평균 판매가격은 리터당 1857.6원으로 전주보다 0.4원 내리며 20주 연속 하락했다. 사진은 4일 서울 시내 한 주유소 모습. 2026.10.4/뉴스1

A gas station in Seoul is seen on Oct. 4. NEWS1

More recently, however, crude oil exports from the Middle East have begun to recover and the Group of 7 countries have decided to release oil from strategic reserves, raising expectations that supply conditions could stabilize somewhat.

International oil prices also fell for a second consecutive trading session.

Brent crude stood at $100.22 a barrel as of 8 a.m. Tuesday, down 0.1 percent from the previous trading session. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 0.2 percent to $89.22 a barrel.

Fuel prices in Korea, however, remain high.

Gasoline prices rose 0.002 percent from the previous day to 1,857.58 won per liter ($5.20 per gallon), while diesel prices fell 0.012 percent to 1,843.08 won per liter.

BY JEONG JAE-HONG [kim.jiye@joongang.co.kr]


https://www.koreajoongangdaily.com/business/korea-averts-feared-november-oil-crunch/12907038

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India Could Boost Crude and Critical Minerals Supply from Ecuador

India and Ecuador are discussing increasing sales of Ecuadorean crude oil, copper, and other critical minerals to India, Fernando Buchelli, the Ecuadorean ambassador to India, told Indian news outlet Mint in an interview published on Tuesday.

Ecuador plans to invite Indian companies to invest in its oil and minerals sector, while the South American country seeks to buy medical products from state-held healthcare product manufacturing group HLL Lifecare Limited, the official said.

India, the world's third-largest crude oil importer and a major renewable energy developer despite coal's dominance in its power supply, has been looking for years to tap oil and other energy resources from as far as South America, to ensure supply and reduce dependence on China's critical minerals industry.

Early this year, India's largest state-owned refiner, Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), bought its first-ever crude from Ecuador as it was looking to replace part of its Russian crude deliveries following the U.S. sanctions on Russia's top producers Rosneft and Lukoil.

Since the Middle East crisis choked crude supply to India, refiners tapped additional volumes of crude oil from South America, including Brazil, Venezuela, and Ecuador, to offset the supply lost in the Persian Gulf.

Now Ecuador offers an opportunity to Indian companies to invest in the oil and critical minerals sector to further expand and secure crude and copper supply.

In South America, India has been working with Argentina to strengthen cooperation in lithium mining in the South American country. Last year, India and Argentina signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to strengthen ties in the critical minerals sector.

"This collaboration is expected to accelerate lithium exploration projects, enhance resource security, and create new opportunities for Indian companies in the Latin American mining landscape," the Indian government said in 2025.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Could-Boost-Crude-and-Critical-Minerals-Supply-from-Ecuador.amp.html

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China Accelerates Ultra-Deep Drilling to Boost Domestic Oil Supply

China is accelerating efforts to produce more oil from ultra-deep formations to boost domestic supply amid continued global market turmoil.

State-owned giant PetroChina has produced more than 26 million tons of oil equivalents from reservoirs dug 6,000 meters (19,685 ft) below the surface in the Hade-Fuman oilfield in the western region of Xinjiang, state media report.

Reservoirs at 6,000 meters and deeper are considered ultra-deep and more expensive and technologically challenging to drill.

China has drilled a total of 485 ultra-deep wells at the Hade-Fuman oil field, which has become the biggest desert oilfield in China and a base for ultra-deep oil and gas exploration and production.

In recent years, the world's top crude oil importer has accelerated exploration of domestic resources, including in ultra-deep formations and shale reservoirs as it aims to reduce its dependence on imported crude supply.

Chinese state oil giant Sinopec is opening a major ultra-deep shale gas play after obtaining official government approval for proven geological reserves of 235.687 billion cubic meters in the Ziyang Dongfeng field in the Sichuan province.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, or Sinopec, as it is more commonly known, announced in May that the Ministry of Natural Resources of China approved its reserves validation at the shale gas field, marking the creation of China's first ultra-deep, 100-billion-cubic-meter-level shale gas field.

In recent years, Sinopec has been actively exploring and certifying growing volumes of shale oil and gas reserves in China's onshore basins, despite technically and geologically challenging terrains and ultra-deep formations.

Despite the challenges, shale exploration is an important part of China's push to boost its domestic oil and gas production in a bid to reduce its significant exposure to imported hydrocarbons.

Despite a rather diversified base of suppliers in both oil and gas, China has made it a priority to increase its degree of self-reliance in hydrocarbon energy, alongside its alternative energy growth.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Accelerates-Ultra-Deep-Drilling-to-Boost-Domestic-Oil-Supply.amp.html

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Trump Signs Tax-Free Red Diesel Order For Highway Use

The executive order lets highway vehicles legally use dyed diesel without the 24.4 cent federal tax through 2026, with possible added state breaks. 

By: Brian Potter Oct 7, at 4:00am ET

President Trump signed an executive order on October 5, 2026, letting truckers, farmers, and other qualifying highway users fill up with dyed diesel, the red-tinted fuel normally reserved for off-road equipment, without immediately paying the federal highway tax on it for a limited period.

Federal energy data shows national on-highway averages up one-third from January levels. Trump's order defers that tax on qualifying dyed diesel used in highway vehicles between October 5 and December 31, 2026, and tells the Treasury Department to explore ways to cancel the deferred bill entirely.

Diesel prices have climbed sharply in 2026 as Iran- and Ukraine-related supply disruptions pushed retail costs higher.

Who Can Buy Tax-Deferred Dyed Diesel Now

Dyed diesel has long been sold without the highway tax for tractors, generators, and construction equipment that never touch public roads. The new order temporarily eases that off-road limitation. It defers the federal tax on dyed diesel used in highway vehicles during the specified 2026 window, with eligibility and documentation rules to be set by the Treasury and the IRS rather than as a blanket right for every driver through next year.

"For many years, farm vehicles, construction equipment and other off-road vehicles have used what's known as red-dyed diesel," Trump said at the signing. "You know what that is? I don't know what the hell it is, but whatever it is, it is supposed to be very good."

North Dakota Gov. Kelly Armstrong pointed to the timing around harvest season. "Record-high diesel prices are squeezing our ag producers, and this is a meaningful and timely step we can take to provide temporary relief and help our farmers and ranchers through the harvest season," he said. American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall added that a federal tax waiver "would provide immediate cost relief for farmers, ranchers, and agricultural haulers that continue to rely on taxable clear diesel."

How Much A Fill-Up Could Actually Save

The federal highway excise tax on diesel runs 24.4 cents per gallon, and state taxes average 35.5 cents on top of that. Waiving just the federal piece can save an owner-operator around $50 to $60 on a large highway fill-up.

A typical long-haul tractor with a 250-gallon tank now costs in the ballpark of $1,300 to fill at early October prices. That's several hundred dollars more than at the start of the year, but nowhere near the $1,600 implied by some early estimates. The White House has touted savings of up to $100 per fillunder the order on its own terms, a level that becomes realistic on very large fills when the full 24.4-cent federal tax break applies.

Several states have discussed additional steps on dyed diesel, often focused on off-road agricultural use or short-term emergency relief rather than broad highway tax holidays that match the federal move. Nebraska, for example, now lists a dyed diesel tax rate of 0.25 cents per gallon beginning October 1, 2026, while explaining that dyed fuel remains limited to exempt uses under state law.

Trump separately claimed the order "will also drive down the costs of all goods, including groceries," arguing that lower diesel costs can ease the overall cost of moving freight. The order instructs the IRS to spell out, within five days of signing, how it will avoid penalizing retailers and drivers who sell or use dyed diesel on highways during the deferral window. That guidance, along with any follow-on legislation on the deferred tax bill, will determine how quickly and widely pumps offer the red-tinted fuel for highway use.


https://www.motor1.com/news/811013/trump-red-diesel-highway-order/

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Agriculture

White House Announces Likely Fertilizer Trade Deal with Belarus Amid Soaring Production Costs for American Farmers

Facts: On Sep. 22, President Trump announced that his administration is pursuing a major trade deal with Belarus regarding the import of potash, a critical fertilizer. The President touted the low cost of Belarusian fertilizer, promising American farmers a much needed break amid rising input costs and low profit margins. In 2024, Canada accounted for 79% of potash imports to the United States, with Russia and Belarus, two close allies, making up 11% and 4%, respectively. The wars in Ukraine and Iran have endangered global agricultural trade at all points of the supply chain, with the costs of diesel and fertilizer in particular reaching high levels amid the additional inflationary threat from the still-developing El Niño.

Analysis: If Belarusian potash proves to be cheaper, the trade deal could lower input costs for farmers at a critical moment in American agriculture. Agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and diesel are both considered strong predictors of inflation. Combined with rising interest rates, cheaper fertilizer imports could be another piece in solving the inflation puzzle facing the Administration. However, transitioning to greater reliance on Belarusian imports will likely bring political consequences, further-cementing the U.S. pivot away from its traditional Western trade partners and increasing reliance on Putin’s closest ally. Eventually, repeated moves like this will lead to greater economic isolation of the U.S. from its former allies and trade partners, resulting in a positive feedback loop of ever-increasing reliance on bad actors for domestic relief.


https://stratageminitiative.substack.com/p/white-house-announces-likely-fertilizer

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World Food Situation

» The FAO Food Price Index* (FFPI) averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, up 2.0 points (1.5 percent) from its revised August level. Price indices for crop-based commodity groups (cereals, vegetable oils, and sugar) all increased from the previous month, while the meat price index declined and the dairy price index remained stable. Compared to a year earlier, the FFPI stood 7.4 points (5.8 percent) higher but remained 24.3 points (15.1 percent) below its peak reached in March 2022.

» The FAO Cereal Price Index averaged 122.8 points in September, up 6.0 points (5.1 percent) from August and 18.0 points (17.2 percent) above its September 2025 value. World wheat prices increased by 6.3 percent from August, reaching their highest level since August 2023, although daily quotations eased towards the end of the month. The rise was largely associated with logistical constraints in the Black Sea region, which prompted importers to shift towards alternative origins. Dry weather conditions in parts of North America ahead of winter wheat planting also contributed to the increase. Global maize prices rose by 5.6 percent month-on-month to their highest level in more than three years, supported by a tightening supply outlook following lower-than-anticipated yields in the United States of America and less export availability in Brazil. Trade disruptions in the Black Sea region reduced maize export availability, while uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept concerns about fuel, fertilizer and freight costs elevated, providing additional support to commodity prices, particularly for those used as biofuel feedstocks, such as maize. World sorghum and barley prices also increased in September, by 13.7 percent and 3.9 percent, respectively, in line with broader trend across feed grain markets, as well as expectations of increased Chinese purchases of sorghum following trade discussions between China and the United States of America. The FAO All Rice Price Index increased by 1.4 percent in September 2026, as Indica quotations rose amid weather concerns and seasonally tighter supplies.


https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/

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Base Metals

Greenland Mines Authorizes $20M Share Buyback


At the Skaergaard site in southeast Greenland. Credit: Greenland Mines

Greenland Mines (Nasdaq: GRML; FSE: HK6) announced Tuesday it has authorized a $20 million (C$28.46 million) share repurchase program. The decision follows the company’s recent raising of more than $59 million in new capital.

The authorization allows the company to repurchase up to $20 million of its outstanding common stock from time to time through open-market transactions. It says the timing around these transactions will depend on market conditions.

“Our priority remains disciplined investment in Sarfartoq and Skaergaard,” said Bo Møller Stensgaard, Greenland Mines’ president. “At the same time, we believe our own shares may represent a compelling use of capital at certain valuations. This $20 million authorization gives us the ability to act when we believe repurchases can create attractive long-term value for our shareholders.”

Greenland Mines stock dropped 14.44% Tuesday morning in New York. The company has a $84.44 million market capitalization.

Sarfartoq

Located in southwest Greenland, Sarfartoq contains neodymium-praseodymium rare earths. It has the potential to provide 34% of all neodymium and praseodymium oxide currently refined outside China at 2025 consumption levels.

According to a historical NI 43-101 resource, the project hosts 5.88 million of indicated tonnes grading 1.77% total rare earth oxides (TREO) and 2.46 million inferred tonnes grading 1.59% TREO.

Skaergaard

Skaergaard is a large gold-pallandium-platinum project in southeast Greenland that also contains copper and cobalt. Although it has not yet reached the economic study stage, an updated technical report for Skaergaard increased contained palladium-equivalent metal across resource categories by more than half while boosting grades by about 80%.

The company completed its 2026 field program at the site in early Oct.


https://www.canadianminingjournal.com/news/greenland-mines-authorizes-20m-share-buyback/

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Peru's Jan-Jul Copper Output Rises 2.2% as Antamina and Las Bambas Lead Mines

Peru's Ministry of Energy and Mines (MINEM) reported national copper output of 1,599,115 tonnes in the first seven months of 2026, up 2.2% year on year, with July production of 236,515 tonnes rising 3.7% on higher output at Antamina (+83%) and Cerro Verde (+18%). On a mine basis, Antamina produced 297,145 tonnes through July, a 54% jump and a 14.3% national share, held by BHP, Glencore, Teck and Mitsubishi. MMG's Las Bambas yielded 245,610 tonnes (-1.1%; 14.83% share), ranking as the No. 2 copper mine, while Freeport's Cerro Verde produced 231,023 tonnes and Southern Copper's Peruvian unit 218,213 tonnes (-10.3%). Antamina and Las Bambas lead on a mine-level basis, underscoring a steady recovery in Peruvian supply that buffers a globally tight concentrate market.


https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/104144011-perus-jan-jul-copper-output-rises-22-as-antamina-and-las-bambas-lead-mines

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DRC Launches 36-Month Airborne Geological Mapping Programme, Targets 46.1% Geoscientific Coverage

The Democratic Republic of Congo has launched a 36-month nationwide airborne geophysical and geological mapping programme aimed at expanding national geoscientific coverage from 22.27% to 46.1%, according to the Ministry of Mines and the National Geological Service of Congo. The programme, known as PC2G-RDC, will deploy eight aircraft to collect high-resolution magnetic, radiometric, gravimetric and electromagnetic data across priority regions including Kongo Central, Kwango, Kwilu, Greater Kasai and Greater Katanga. 

The programme is being coordinated by the National Geological Service of Congo, financed by the Fonds Minier pour les Générations Futures and executed by Spanish geophysics company Xcalibur Multiphysics Group. 

The expansion would increase mapped geoscientific coverage by 23.83 percentage points, more than doubling the current level. Congolese authorities estimate that less than 10% of the country has been thoroughly explored, despite the DRC already ranking as Africa’s largest copper producer and the world’s largest cobalt producer. 

The latest survey phase builds on geological work previously carried out in Greater Katanga, the country’s main copper-cobalt producing region, while extending systematic airborne mapping into less-explored parts of the DRC. The surveys are intended to identify geophysical anomalies and improve the geological datasets used to prioritize areas for subsequent ground-based exploration. 

The government expects the resulting datasets to reduce geological uncertainty for future exploration, improve identification of prospective mineral zones and strengthen the state’s ability to evaluate mineral-development opportunities. Any anomalies identified through the airborne surveys would still require ground verification, geochemical work and drilling before a mineral deposit could be established. 

Raising national geoscientific coverage from 22.27% to 46.1% would materially expand the amount of modern geological data available for mineral exploration in the DRC. For the copper sector, the immediate impact is on exploration efficiency rather than mine supply: improved airborne datasets can narrow target areas before companies commit capital to detailed fieldwork and drilling. Given that less than 10% of the country has been thoroughly explored, the programme could expand the longer-term pipeline of copper exploration targets beyond the established Greater Katanga Copperbelt. However, the programme itself does not add reserves or production; any prospective anomalies would require years of follow-up exploration and development before contributing to copper supply.


https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104144082-drc-launches-36-month-airborne-geological-mapping-programme-targets-461-geoscientific-coverage

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Steel

Nucor Hikes Hot-Rolled Coil Spot Price Again to $1,230 per Tonne

The American steel producer Nucor has lifted its spot price for hot-rolled coils by $10 per short tonne compared with the prior week, according to a company letter to customers dated 5 October. The company, as reported by gmk.center, has set the new offer price at $1,230 per metric tonne.

The consumer spot price for the California Steel Industries joint venture also moved up by $10 per short tonne, reaching $1,290 per metric tonne. Order lead times remain unchanged, ranging from three to five weeks, the company indicated.

Nucor announced a spot price of $1,190 per tonne for the product on 8 September and has since raised it by $10 per tonne on a weekly basis.

Estimates from Kallanish placed the price of hot-rolled steel in the United States at $1,210 to $1,220 per short tonne on 2 October. In the equivalent week of 2025, spot prices were between $825 and $865 per short tonne.

Steel Market Update noted that at the end of September, prices for sheet and heavy plate in the United States were rising gradually, with a supply shortage in the spot market, stable demand and long delivery times likely to persist into the fourth quarter.

The global hot-rolled coil market showed mixed trends in September 2026. In the United States, prices rose steadily amid limited spot supply and longer lead times. European producers were determined to push prices higher, while in China the expected seasonal upturn remained uncertain.


https://www.indexbox.io/blog/nucor-raises-hot-rolled-coil-spot-price-by-10-per-short-tonne-2/

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Just Five Days Into the New EU Steel Quota - Quotas 70% Used

Just five days into the new EU steel quota period running from 1 October to 31 December, Commission data show several quotas for Türkiye, China, India, Australia, Taiwan (PoC), North Macedonia and "other countries" already exhausted, with a number of others more than 70% used. On the stainless side, India has exceeded both its quota for stainless bars and light sections and its quota for seamless stainless tubes, and in each case the volume waiting for customs clearance at EU ports exceeds the full quarterly allocation. Most of that material will therefore either wait for the next quarter or pay the 50% out-of-quota tariff. Indian bright bar export offers to Europe were already softening, with European buyers cautious over CBAM and quota uncertainty. With quotas filled at the opening, Indian stainless long product exports to the EU will be sharply constrained in Q4, forcing exporters to weigh price against quota access. The other exhausted categories are mostly carbon steel, with Türkiye exceeding multiple quotas including HRC, coated sheet, wire rod and welded pipe.


https://news.metal.com/newscontent/104143927-smm-stainless-steel-flash-eu-q4-steel-quotas-fill-within-days-as-india-overshoots-stainless-bar-and-tube-caps

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