Peter Schiff forecast gold at $4,000 by December 2025 and $6,000 in 2026, with the Dollar Index falling toward 90 this year and 70 next year in a recent interview.
“I don’t think I’ve ever been more bullish than I am now,” he said, citing “fundamentals” and “technicals” aligning across gold, silver, and miners.
He argued miners are leading the tape: the VanEck Gold Miners ETF is up 86% year-to-date and the Junior Gold Miners ETF is up 87%, while Newmont has “almost doubled.” Schiff added he expects Newmont to overtake Palantir for top S&P 500 performance by year-end.
Schiff said prior downgrades of Newmont and Barrick at around $32 ignored his view that “$2,000 was the floor” for gold and “$30 was the floor for silver.” Gold is now “almost $3,500,” he said, and silver near $40 remains “cheap.”
“We have quite a ways to go in these miners — maybe at least another 50%, maybe 100%,” he said, arguing a “market multiple” on Newmont would imply a further double if gold keeps advancing.
On the metal itself, Schiff lifted his long-held targets. “Five thousand is not my target for gold now. It’s much, much higher… 10,000, 20,000,” he said, pointing to debt accumulation. Near-term, he reiterated “$4,000 by the end of this year… maybe $6,000 next year.”
Gold is up $35 now, trading at $3,480 and silver just hit $40.50. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) September 1, 2025
He contrasted gold’s new highs with Bitcoin, calling it “anti-gold.” He noted Bitcoin is “13% below its record high,” around $107,000, versus gold near $3,450 — a ratio of (around) 31 ounces, below the (roughly) 36-ounce peak in 2021 — and warned of a break below $75,000 or even $50,000 leading to an “implode.”
On the dollar, Schiff said dollar indez has a “97 handle” now, could be “at 90” by year-end, and “back down to 70” by end-2026, potentially “cracking” the 2008 low over time. He framed the risk as a “sovereign debt” and “currency” crisis that would erode real returns in US stocks and bonds.
However, he was explicit on fixed income: “I couldn’t be more bearish on US bonds,” discouraging ownership of Treasuries, MBS, and corporates.
Information for this story was found via Quoth The Raven and the sources and companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to the organizations discussed. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
The price of Copper fell below the $10,000 per ton mark again on Friday following the release of US labor market data, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.
China Copper imports fall compared with the previous month
"Ultimately, the weak US labor market report fueled concerns about the economy and demand, which, at least in the short term, outweigh hopes of rapid interest rate cuts. China's trade balance figures were also rather disappointing: for one thing, Copper imports fell compared with the previous month, slipping to their lowest level since February this year. This signals rather subdued demand in China."
"For another, Copper ore imports rose significantly for the second month in a row, to 2.76 million tons, the second-highest monthly figure ever. Record imports in April this year were only around 6% higher. Overall, Copper ore imports in the first eight months were almost 8% higher than in the same period last year, at a good 20 million tons. This dampens concerns about a shortage of raw materials for Copper smelting in the largest producing country and points to continued high Copper production in China."
"This morning, however, another report is boosting the price of Copper: following an incident, operations at the world's second-largest Copper mine, the Grasberg Mine in Indonesia, had to be suspended. The extent and sustainability of the damage is still unclear."
https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-2-1108191-20250909
While Ibstock plc (LON:IBST) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the LSE over the last few months, increasing to UK£1.97 at one point, and dropping to the lows of UK£1.33. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Ibstock's current trading price of UK£1.36 reflective of the actual value of the small-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Ibstock’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
AI is about to change healthcare. These 20 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10bn in marketcap - there is still time to get in early.
Is Ibstock Still Cheap?
Ibstock appears to be expensive according to our price multiple model, which makes a comparison between the company's price-to-earnings ratio and the industry average. We’ve used the price-to-earnings ratio in this instance because there’s not enough visibility to forecast its cash flows. The stock’s ratio of 44.03x is currently well-above the industry average of 24.69x, meaning that it is trading at a more expensive price relative to its peers. Furthermore, Ibstock’s share price also seems relatively stable compared to the rest of the market, as indicated by its low beta. If you believe the share price should eventually reach levels around its industry peers, a low beta could suggest it is unlikely to rapidly do so anytime soon, and once it’s there, it may be hard to fall back down into an attractive buying range.
What kind of growth will Ibstock generate?
LSE:IBST Earnings and Revenue Growth September 7th 2025
Investors looking for growth in their portfolio may want to consider the prospects of a company before buying its shares. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Ibstock's earnings over the next few years are expected to double, indicating a very optimistic future ahead. This should lead to stronger cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What This Means For You
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has well and truly priced in IBST’s positive outlook, with shares trading above industry price multiples. At this current price, shareholders may be asking a different question – should I sell? If you believe IBST should trade below its current price, selling high and buying it back up again when its price falls towards the industry PE ratio can be profitable. But before you make this decision, take a look at whether its fundamentals have changed.
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping tabs on IBST for some time, now may not be the best time to enter into the stock. The price has surpassed its industry peers, which means it is likely that there is no more upside from mispricing. However, the optimistic prospect is encouraging for IBST, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/now-opportunity-ibstock-plc-lon-081037811.html
We don’t really know how much energy artificial intelligence is consuming. There aren’t any laws currently on the books requiring AI companies to disclose their energy usage or environmental impact, and most firms therefore opt to keep that controversial information close to the vest. Plus, large language models are evolving all the time, increasing in both complexity and efficiency, complicating outside efforts to quantify the sector’s energy footprint. But while we don’t know exactly how much electricity data centers are eating up to power ever-increasing AI integration, we do know that it’s a whole lot.
“AI’s integration into almost everything from customer service calls to algorithmic “bosses” to warfare is fueling enormous demand,” the Washington Post recently reported. “Despite dramatic efficiency improvements, pouring those gains back into bigger, hungrier models powered by fossil fuels will create the energy monster we imagine.”
And that energy monster is weighing heavily on the minds of policymakers around the world. Global leaders are busily wringing their hands over the potentially disastrous impact AI could have on energy security, especially in countries like Ireland, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia, where planned data center development outpaces planned energy capacity.
In a rush to keep ahead of a critical energy shortage, public and private entities involved on both the tech and energy sides of the issue have been rushing to increase energy production capacities by any means. Countries are in a rush to build new power plants as well as to keep existing energy projects online beyond their planned closure dates. Many of these projects are fossil fuel plants, causing outcry that indiscriminate integration of artificial intelligence is undermining the decarbonization goals of nations and tech firms the world over.
“From the deserts of the United Arab Emirates to the outskirts of Ireland’s capital, the energy demands of AI applications and training running through these centres are driving the surge of investment into fossil fuels,” reports the Financial Times. Globally, more than 85 gas-powered facilities are currently being built to meet AI’s energy demand according to figures from Global Energy Monitor.
In the United States, the demand surge is leading to the resurrection of old coal plants. Coal has been in terminal decline for years now in the U.S., and a large number of defunct plants are scattered around the country with valuable infrastructure that could lend itself to a speedy new power plant hookup. Thanks to the AI revolution, many of these plants are now set to come back online as natural gas-fired plants. While gas is cleaner than coal, the coal-to-gas route may come at the expense of clean energy projects that could have otherwise used the infrastructure and coveted grid hookups of defunct coal-fired power plants.
“Our grid isn’t short on opportunity — it’s short on time,” Carson Kearl, Enverus senior analyst for energy and AI, recently told Fortune. “These grid interconnections are up for grabs for new power projects when these coal plants roll off. The No. 1 priority for Big Tech has changed to [speed] to energy, and this is the fastest way to go in a lot of cases,” Kearl continued.
Last year, Google stated that the company’s carbon emissions had skyrocketed by a whopping 48 percent over the last five years thanks to its AI integration. “AI-powered services involve considerably more computer power - and so electricity - than standard online activity, prompting a series of warnings about the technology's environmental impact,” the BBC reported last summer. Google had previously pledged to reach net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, but the company now concedes that "as we further integrate AI into our products, reducing emissions may be challenging."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Energy-Monster-AI-Is-Creating.html
By Nupur Anand and Saeed Azhar
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Senators Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders blasted the nation's top six lenders for easing regulations to enrich shareholders instead of boosting lending to businesses and households.
Banks are making wealthy shareholders richer and increasing executive compensation at the expense of financial stability and economic growth, according to the senators' joint letters sent to the CEOs of the biggest U.S. banks on Monday, seen by Reuters.
JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley declined to comment, while Bank of America and Goldman Sachs did not immediately respond to requests seeking comment.
U.S. banks announced plans in July to raise their third-quarter dividends after clearing the Federal Reserve's annual health check that showed lenders had enough capital to withstand scenarios such as a severe economic downturn.
JPMorgan, the biggest U.S. lender, approved a new $50 billion share repurchase program and raised its quarterly dividend to $1.50 per share, after passing the Fed's annual stress test.
"These actions directly contradict the rhetoric your lobbyists and trade associations are deploying in Washington to sell policymakers on Wall Street deregulation," the senators said in a letter to JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. "The behaviour of big banks in 2025 suggests, much like a long body of historical empirical evidence, that this rhetoric is dangerously misleading."
The Fed also announced it had finalised new capital requirements for the nation's largest banks following the June stress tests.
After banks were bailed out during the 2008 global financial crisis, policymakers increased capital requirements and established stress tests to ensure big banks were resilient and could serve as a source of economic strength.
Under the second Trump administration, Wall Street is again lobbying to gut these rules, Warren, a prominent critic of banks, and Sanders wrote in the letters. If banks succeed in watering down regulations, it could jeopardize the economy, she wrote.
The senators asked bank chiefs to respond to a series of questions by September 22.
(Reporting by Nupur Anand and Saeed Azhar, editing by Lananh Nguyen, Rod Nickel and Nick Zieminski)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-senators-warren-sanders-urge-161052337.html
FILE PHOTO: Rare earths at Laboratory of Physics and Material studies (LPEM) in Paris
LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - Aluminium, steel and copper have all been hit with steep U.S. import tariffs this year, upending physical supply chains and fracturing global pricing.
Which metal is next for the tariff treatment?
There is no shortage of potential targets. The United States Geological Survey's (USGS) latest iteration of its critical minerals list now includes 54 elements, opens new tab deemed essential for U.S. economic and national security.
All come under the scope of President Donald Trump's Section 232 investigation into U.S. critical minerals import dependency. The investigation was launched in April and the final report and any potential tariffs are due in October.
The USGS list is sprinkled with obscure components of the periodic table, such as rare earth elements dysprosium and praseodymium. But it also includes globally traded industrial inputs such as zinc and platinum.
SIX IN, TWO OUT
And now also lead and silver.
The USGS recommends both for inclusion, along with potash, silicon, rhenium and copper.
The United States is a net exporter of copper ore and concentrates, but the USGS highlights the country's import dependency for refined metal as a reason for inclusion.
The Trump administration backed off from immediate tariffs on refined copper, but confirmation of the metal's new national security designation would increase the likelihood of a threatened phase-in from 2027.
Silver, currently on a speculative price surge, is proposed for inclusion because of a scenario in which Mexico stops exporting to the United States, though that eventuality is described as a high-impact low probability event.
Rhenium and lead are both borderline, but the USGS warns that its risk assessments fluctuate as production and trade flows change.
To prove the point it has dropped tellurium and arsenic from the list.
Rio Tinto (RIO.L), opens new tab started recovering tellurium from its Utah copper smelter in 2022, leading to a decrease in U.S. imports. Arsenic's removal reflects Peru's move past China as the world's largest producer.
MOST CRITICAL
The USGS has evolved its methodology, opens new tab to include the economic impact of potential supply disruptions to flows of critical minerals to the United States.
It has assessed the effects of more than 1,200 disruption scenarios for 84 minerals on 402 individual industries.
Minerals-based industries contribute more than $4 trillion to the U.S. economy and, to quote the USGS, "the loss of even one can ripple through entire industries, from semiconductors to defense systems, undermining production capacity, technology leadership and American jobs".
Which makes samarium the most critical of all critical minerals owing to its importance in manufacturing guided missiles, space vehicles and search and navigation instruments.
Other rare earth elements, such as lutetium and terbium, make it into the top 10 along with semiconductor chip materials gallium and germanium as well as tungsten.
All of them are subject to some form of Chinese export restriction as Beijing leverages its grip on global supplies in response to U.S. restrictions on advanced computer chip sales to China.
TRADING TARIFFS
The sheer number of potential metallic targets has inhibited individual markets from pricing in the probability of U.S. tariffs.
The mere threat of refined copper tariffs, subsequently deferred, was enough to trigger a mass relocation of metal to the United States.
The same has not yet happened for other industrial metals on the USGS critical minerals list, such as nickel, tin, zinc and, if confirmed, lead.
Nor do hybrid industrial investment metals such as platinum, palladium and silver seem prepared for tariff turbulence.
Palladium and silver are under-pricing tariff risk, Citi analysts say. Based on exchange-for-physical transactions, the U.S. premium for both metals is only 2-3% relative to non-U.S. pricing, which is very low considering the 50% tariffs applied to steel, aluminium and copper products.
The U.S. Commerce Department has also launched an investigation, opens new tab into potential Russian dumping of unwrought palladium, putting it high on the potential trade hit list.
PUSH AND PULL
The action against Russian palladium underlines the double nature of the critical minerals threat to the United States and other Western countries.
Dominant producer countries can both restrict supply or flood Western markets with too much supply to crush competitors.
The Trump administration must walk a fine line between using tariffs as a tool for increasing domestic production and potentially limiting already constrained availability.
Each individual metal on the lengthening USGS list of critical minerals has its own unique dynamics in terms of import dependency, alternative suppliers and domestic production potential.
Copper has come in for a more nuanced approach than aluminium or steel, where blanket 50% tariffs capture all countries and, after last month's inclusion of 407 category codes, opens new tab, the whole length of the product chain down to household furniture.
The broad spectrum of minerals now classified as critical argues for an equally tailor-made approach to determining solutions.
Trump, of course, may disagree.
Either way, global metal markets are in for more tariff turbulence, whether they're pricing it or not.
By Clara Denina
September 9, 2025 11:55 AM GMT
Summary
LONDON, Sept 9 (Reuters) - London-listed miner Anglo American (AAL.L), and Canada's Teck Resources (TECKb.TO) are to merge, the two companies said on Tuesday, in what would be the biggest mining sector M&A deal in over a decade.
Under the proposed deal, which will require regulatory approval, Anglo American shareholders would own 62.4% of the newly combined company, Anglo Teck, while shareholders in Teck will hold 37.6%.
Anglo Teck will be headquartered in Canada but have a primary listing in London, said the two companies, whose combined market capitalisation exceeds $53 billion.
The deal marks a big bet by Anglo on copper, demand for which is forecast to rise sharply, driven by the electric vehicle boom and emerging uses such as AI-powered data centres.
Both Anglo and Teck have been at the centre of takeover interest in recent years, with Glencore (GLEN.L) pursuing Teck and BHP (BHP.AX) targeting Anglo for their extensive copper portfolios.
Anglo American's London shares were up more than 7% in early trading after the announcement, on track for their biggest daily gain in over a year, while U.S.-listed Teck shares were up 10.4% pre-market.
Anglo's chief executive, Duncan Wanblad, will remain CEO of the new company, while Teck's Jonathan Price will be deputy CEO.
Wanblad, speaking to journalists from Vancouver, called the deal a "true merger of equals", adding that Anglo Teck's board would be drawn equally from the two companies' existing directors.
"We will have a stronger, more resilient financial platform with scale advantages, including greater flexibility to reallocate capital dynamically to the highest returning opportunities," he said.
The Anglo American logo is seen in Rusternburg October 5, 2015. Picture taken October 5, 2015. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights
The deal has a zero-premium, all-share structure, but Anglo's shareholders will receive a $4.5 billion special dividend.
"As a merger, we absolutely get to draw on the best of both, and we don't really need to pay away anything on either side in terms of premium to get the full benefit," Wanblad said.
COST SAVINGS AND EFFICIENCY GAINS
The merger is expected to generate annual cost savings and efficiency gains of $800 million by the fourth year after completion, Anglo said.
The two companies operate adjacent copper mines in Chile - Quebrada Blanca and Collahuasi - which are expected to deliver further operational benefits.
Teck CEO Price said securing the regulatory approvals for the deal could take between 12 and 18 months. He added that Canada's Keevil family, which owns a majority of Teck's A-class shares, backed the deal.
"We have irrevocable support from Dr. Keevil and the other A-share voters," he said.
Analysts highlighted possible expectations of rival bids.
"Interloper risk will be a big question for the market on this deal," Berenberg analysts wrote in a note.
Glencore was seen as a potential rival to acquire Teck, they said, while BHP could step in seeking to scale up its own copper business.
Reporting by Clara Denina, Prerna Bedi and Yadarisa Shabong; Writing by Joe Bavier; Editing by Veronica Brown, Louise Heavens, Kirsten Donovan and Emelia Sithole-Matarise
Anglo American PLC NGLOY is reportedly in talks to buy Teck Resources Ltd. TECK-B-T, with the British mining giant potentially poised to take advantage of weakness in the Canadian miner’s share price.
Bloomberg reported on Monday that London-based Anglo is close to reaching a deal to buy Vancouver-based Teck in a mostly stock-based transaction.
Teck and Anglo did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
Both Anglo and Teck have been targets of takeover offers in the past few years, with both companies fending off the overtures. BHP Group Ltd. in 2024 offered US$49.1-billion for Anglo but was rebuffed. Anglo opted instead to put significant segments of its business up for sale, and it has since sold off its nickel, platinum group metals, and much of its metallurgical coal business.
Anglo’s stock has done well amid its restructuring efforts, while Teck shares have struggled over the past year because of the poor performance of its QB2 copper mine in Chile.
A proposed acquisition of Teck by a foreign miner would be closely scrutinized by Ottawa. The federal government in 2023 said it would allow acquisitions of large Canadian critical minerals companies only under the most exceptional circumstances.
Teck undertaking major overhaul at QB2 mine in Chile after years of struggles
In addition, a takeover of Teck would have to be approved by the Keevil family, most notably chairman emeritus Norman B. Keevil. The Keevil family controls the company’s class A shares, which carry 100 votes each, compared with the single-voting class B shares.
Switzerland-based Glencore tried to buy all of Teck’s operations in 2023. Eventually, Teck agreed to sell only its legacy coal business to Glencore, while it kept its copper and zinc operations.
Apart from QB2, Teck also owns a significant zinc business. It operates the Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska, which is one of the biggest zinc mines in the world. Teck also operates the Highland Valley copper mine, and the Trail smelter, both of which are in British Columbia.
Located near Teck’s QB2 mine is the Collahuasi operation, in which Anglo owns a 44-per-cent stake. Billions in cost savings are thought to be possible if QB2 and Collahuasi can be operated as one gigantic facility. Earlier this year, Teck CEO Jonathan Price said he was open to a deal to merge QB2 and Collahuasi.
“We do recognize the potential value of some form of tie-up between those two operations,” he said in an earnings conference call in February. “And it’s something that we’ve done a good deal of work on to understand the various ways in which that value could be unlocked.”
Mr. Price said that Teck has engaged with the Collahuasi partners about the opportunities for combining QB2 and Collahuasi.
Glencore PLC also owns 44 per cent of Collahuasi while Japan Collahuasi Resources B.V. owns the remaining 12 per per cent.
EPA-EFE/ALEX PLAVEVSKI
China's annual inflation rate dropped by 0.4% in August after seeing no change last month, the country's National Bureau of Statistics revealed in its report published on Wednesday.
On a monthly basis, consumer prices remained unchanged in August, following a 0.4% rise in the previous month.
Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 2.9% year-on-year, matching expectations and coming in lower than last month's 3.6% decline.
https://breakingthenews.net/Article/China's-inflation-drops-0.4-in-August/64788775
NEWS | 09/10/2025 10:30:00 GMT | By FXStreet Team
The United States (US) will publish the August Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. The report, produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), will be published one day ahead of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the same month, scheduled for Thursday.
Both indexes measure inflation, with the CPI focused on the total value of goods and services consumers buy, and the PPI measuring inflation at the wholesale, or producers' level. Generally speaking, PPI increases will ultimately be reflected in the CPI as producers pass on higher prices to consumers. When released before the CPI, it is an early indicator of higher price pressures.
What to expect in the next PPI data report?
Producer inflation in the US is expected to rise at an annual rate of 3.3% in August, following a similar reading in July. The core PPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 3.5% YoY, easing from the 3.7% posted in the previous month. Over the month, the PPI and core PPI are seen advancing by 0.3% each.
The CPI report tends to have a broader impact on financial markets, and given that it is scheduled for release 24 hours after the PPI report, the latter can have a reduced impact on the USD.
Inflation is one of the two legs on which the Federal Reserve (Fed) bases its monetary policy decisions. Central banks tend to be hawkish with increasing inflationary pressures, and dovish when pressure eases.
Given tepid employment figures released last week, market players have already fully priced in an upcoming interest rate cut when the Fed meets next week. The question now is whether the central bank will go for a 25 basis points (bps) trim or 50 bps, with the odds of the latter increasing ahead of the event.
Even further, the BLS reported on Tuesday that the preliminary estimate of the Current Employment Statistics (CES) national benchmark revision to total Nonfarm employment for March 2025 is -911,000, meaning the labor market is cooling at a faster-than-estimated pace.
How could the US Producer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?
Ahead of the inflation-related reports, market participants have fully priced in an interest rate cut when the Fed meets on September 16-17. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds for a 25 bps cut stand at 88.2%, while the remaining 11.8% is betting on a 50 bps cut.
Fed officials are currently in a blackout period, meaning policymakers should refrain from discussing monetary policy in public roughly two weeks ahead of their scheduled meeting. But beforehand, and what actually triggered markets fully pricing in a rate cut, were Chair Jerome Powell's words at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Powell was quite explicit about the possibility of an interest rate cut. “With policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance,” Powell said.
Powell highlighted the challenges the Fed faces: On the one hand, US President Donald Trump’s tariffs pose an upward risk to inflation, and on the other hand, Trump’s immigration policies weaken the US labor market.
Market participants will initially look at headline monthly and annual figures, and then turn their attention to the core data. Generally speaking, higher-than-anticipated prints tend to boost demand for the USD, as market players will reduce odds for upcoming interest rate cuts, while the opposite scenario is also valid: softer data will weigh on the Greenback, as investors will add to bets of forthcoming interest rate cuts.
Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The EUR/USD pair trades above the 1.1700 threshold heading into the PPI announcement, with the US Dollar finding some near-term demand, but far from bullish. The pair recently peaked at 1.1780 and seesawed with the NFP revisions release, but was unable to find a straightforward way. Despite trading in the red, the daily chart shows that it continues to post higher highs and higher lows, which maintains the risk skewed to the upside. A near-term corrective decline is on the cards, with immediate support around the 1.1700 mark.”
Bednarik adds: “Once below the aforementioned support, EUR/USD sellers could test buyers’ determination at around 1.1650, a comfort zone for the pair. Clear slides below the latter expose the 1.1600-1.1610 region. Beyond the resistance at 1.1780 (weekly peak), the year’s top comes next at 1.1830. Additional advances are unlikely with the PPI release, but can occur with CPI data on Thursday. In such a case, 1.1900 is the next level to watch.”
Five years on from Brexit – a seismic shock to the UK’s global trading relationships of itself – and the UK automotive industry faces further global trade, political and
economic challenges. Tariffs have upended the established order, competition is getting ever more fierce, the shift to electrification is far from smooth and geopolitical tensions are rising.
Throughout it all, the sector has shown remarkable resilience, generating £115 billion worth of trade in 2024 and is on track to remain above the £110 billion threshold for the third year running. In the first half of 2025, UK shipments of motor vehicles and parts represented 12.6% of all British manufactured goods exported, the second most valuable commodity across all UK industrial products. These exports range from high-value, state-of-the-art vehicles to precision-engineered components and emerging mobility technologies, all produced by globally recognised and trusted brands.
While overall vehicle production volumes are down as the sector retools and restructures for an electric future, the UK remains a force in global automotive trade, exporting to all corners of the world. We remain open to imports and produce a diverse range of cars, vans, buses, trucks, taxis, and even specialist and off-road vehicles that are often world renown and increasingly utilising low and zeroemission technologies. Most of these products continue to be exported to global markets. It is why strong, fair, and open trade is essential—particularly with Europe.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright blasted net-zero targets as a “colossal train wreck” ahead of his trip to Europe for a gas summit and meetings with EU officials, warning the push for climate policies could weaken energy security and derail a U.S.–EU trade deal.
“Net zero 2050 is just a colossal train wreck,” Wright told the Financial Times in an interview.
“It’s just a monstrous human impoverishment program, and of course, there is no way it is going to happen,” said the Energy Secretary, whose remarks were also shared on X by the official account of the U.S. Department of Energy.
Secretary Wright, a former oil and gas executive, made his position on net zero known shortly after he was picked to lead the energy department earlier this year. Weeks earlier, the Trump Administration had given a loud and clear message on what it thinks of net zero on Day One—the day that President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the Paris Agreement, again.
After years of aligning with Europe on the net-zero agenda under President Biden, the United States is now on a collision course with the EU and its climate regulations.
The EU’s Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), commonly known as the “carbon border tax”, ultimately aim to impose levies on higher-emission products imported into the EU.
Many companies outside the EU, including those in the U.S., have signaled they would rather not sell in Europe than pay significant “border taxes”, levies, penalties, or whatever the language will be later this decade, when the mechanism will come into effect.
These rules and the EU’s “crusade” toward net zero are a threat to the U.S.-EU trade deal, Secretary Wright told FT.
“I think those regulations significantly threaten the ability to implement the trade deal that was agreed to,” he added.
The U.S.-EU trade deal for European energy purchases of American products already looks unrealistic, analysts say, even without accounting for all EU climate-related levies.
U.S. giant ExxonMobil hopes the ongoing U.S.-EU dialogue on trade would address the “bone-crushing penalties” in the EU’s climate regulations, the supermajor’s CEO Darren Woods told analysts on the Q2 earnings call last month.
Wright’s remarks from this week aren’t the first time the U.S. Energy Secretary has slammed the net zero agenda.
Europe’s goal to pursue a net-zero agenda is depriving citizens of reliable and affordable energy in a choice made by politicians, Wright said at a forum in Poland in April.
“This top-down imposition of enforced “climate policies” is justified as necessary to save the world from climate change,” Wright said.
“But I can say that climate alarmism has clearly reduced energy freedom, and, hence, prosperity and national security across Western Europe.”
Wright noted that affordability is more important than sustainability.
“Today, folks struggling to pay their bills while aspiring to live highly energized lifestyles like you and I is a far bigger global challenge than climate change. Energy access is far too important to get wrong,” Wright said.
The U.S. pushback against net zero has led to Secretary Wright saying that the United States could abandon the IEA if the organization, created in the aftermath of the 1970s Arab oil embargo, doesn’t return to forecasting energy demand without strongly promoting green energy.
“We will do one of two things: we will reform the way the IEA operates or we will withdraw,” Wright told Bloomberg in an interview in the middle of July.
“My strong preference is to reform it,” Secretary Wright added.
The official echoed voices in the U.S. Republican party that the agency has become an advocate of the energy transition and is not objective in forecasting energy demand trends.
From ensuring security of supply after the 1970s embargo, the agency has shifted from this purpose in recent years to endorsing the net-zero by 2050 goal and is advocating for a major change in the global energy system to include more electric vehicles (EVs), renewable power supply, hydrogen, and all other low-carbon energy sources.
The IEA’s forecast that oil demand will peak this decade is “just total nonsense,” Secretary Wright said.
Crude oil inventories in the United States increased by 3.9 million barrels during the week ending September 5, after falling 2.4 million barrels in the week prior, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The build brings commercial stockpiles to 424.6 million barrels according to government data, which is 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The EIA’s data release follows API’s figures that were released a day earlier, which suggested that crude oil inventories expanded by a more modest 1.25 million barrels.
Crude prices were trading up on Wednesday morning immediately following the EIA data release. At 10:54 a.m. in New York, Brent was trading at $66.82 per barrel—up $.043 (+0.65%) on the day and a roughly $.30 per barrel dip from last week’s level. WTI was also trading up, by $0.36 per barrel (+0.57%) in mid-morning trade.
For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported an increase of 1.5 million barrels, after the week prior’s 3.8-million-barrel dip. The most recent figures showed average daily gasoline production decreasing to 9.6 million barrels. For middle distillates, inventories increased by a massive 4.7 million barrels, with production decreasing to 5.2 million barrels daily. Distillate inventories had increased 1.7 million barrels in the week prior and are now 9% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four weeks slipped to 20.9 million barrels per day, up 2% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, while the distillate four-week average supplied at 3.8 million barrels—up 2 percent year over year.
By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/EIA-Reports-Significant-Build-in-US-Crude-Stockpiles.html
Provided by Dow Jones Sep 11, 2025, 9:31:00 AM
By Giulia Petroni
Global oil markets are bracing for an even larger surplus than previously anticipated as supply growth continues to far outstrip demand, the International Energy Agency said in its closely watched monthly report.
The Paris-based organization now forecasts oil supply growth of 2.7 million barrels a day this year and 2.1 million the next, from earlier estimates of 2.5 million and 1.9 million barrels a day, respectively. The revision comes after OPEC+'s latest output hike, though producers outside of the alliance are still the main drivers of growth.
Brent crude traded around $67 a barrel on Thursday, while West Texas Intermediate was just above $63 a barrel amid concerns over softening demand in the U.S. and persistent concerns over a looming supply surplus. Yet, further losses are capped by increased geopolitical tensions following Israel's attack on Hamas's leadership in Qatar and prospects of tighter Western sanctions on Russian energy exports.
"Oil markets are being pulled in different directions by a range of forces, with the potential for supply losses stemming from new sanctions on Russia and Iran coming against a backdrop of higher OPEC+ supply and the prospect of increasingly bloated oil balances," the IEA said.
Meanwhile, global demand is forecast to grow by 737,000 barrels a day this year from a previous estimate of 685,000, driven by weaker oil prices and resilient consumption trends in key OECD countries over the summer. Next year, demand growth is projected at 698,000 barrels a day.
The IEA's estimates remain well below OPEC's.
Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive against Russian energy infrastructure, targeting the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia's Bryansk region. The attack caused "comprehensive fire damage," according to Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's drone forces. This move comes after Russia's overnight attacks on Kyiv that killed three people and injured 18 others.
Casualties reported Russia's overnight attacks on Kyiv killed 3, injured 18 others A fire broke out on the top of an administrative building in Kyiv following a Russian attack on the city, Timur Tkachenko, head of the military administration of the Ukrainian capital, said on Sunday on social media. The overnight attacks on Kyiv resulted in the deaths of three people, including an infant. The Ukrainian government building was also set ablaze during the assault. Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko said drones first targeted the city, followed by missile strikes.
Destruction reported Residential buildings partially destroyed in missile strike Fires broke out in two of the four floors of a residential building in Darnytskyi, partially destroying its structure, state energy officials reported. A nine-storey residential building in the Sviatoshynskyi district was also partially destroyed. Moreover, falling drone debris caused fires in a 16-story apartment and two other nine-story buildings.
Strategic strike Druzhba pipeline strike disrupts Russian oil transit to Hungary, Slovakia The Druzhba pipeline strike has disrupted Russian oil transit to Hungary and Slovakia. Despite other EU nations severing ties after Russia's 2022 invasion, these countries continue buying energy from Russia. Kyiv says this attack is aimed at disrupting Russia's overall war effort.
Tullow Oil plc (LON:TLW) shares traded up 6.9% during trading on Friday . The stock traded as high as GBX 10.94 ($0.15) and last traded at GBX 10.86 ($0.15). 3,890,915 shares changed hands during trading, a decline of 51% from the average session volume of 7,974,786 shares. The stock had previously closed at GBX 10.16 ($0.14).
Wall Street Analyst Weigh In
Several analysts have commented on the company. Jefferies Financial Group reiterated an “underperform” rating and set a GBX 12 target price on shares of Tullow Oil in a research note on Thursday, August 7th. Canaccord Genuity Group cut their target price on Tullow Oil from GBX 16 to GBX 10 and set a “hold” rating on the stock in a research note on Thursday, August 7th. Finally, Shore Capital reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Tullow Oil in a research note on Friday. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, one has issued a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company. According to MarketBeat.com, Tullow Oil currently has a consensus rating of “Hold” and an average price target of GBX 17.33.
Tullow Oil Price Performance
The firm has a fifty day moving average price of GBX 13.30 and a two-hundred day moving average price of GBX 14.39. The stock has a market capitalization of £158.32 million, a P/E ratio of -77.34, a PEG ratio of -0.19 and a beta of 2.08. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of -1,776.31, a quick ratio of 0.63 and a current ratio of 0.70.
Insider Buying and Selling at Tullow Oil
In other news, insider Roald Goethe purchased 2,000,000 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, August 6th. The shares were purchased at an average cost of GBX 12 per share, with a total value of £240,000. 1.33% of the stock is owned by insiders.
Tullow Oil Company Profile
Tullow is an independent energy company that is building a better future through responsible oil and gas development in Africa. The Company’s operations are focused on its West-African producing assets in Ghana, Gabon and Côte d’Ivoire, alongside a material discovered resource base in Kenya. Tullow is committed to becoming Net Zero on its Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030 and has a Shared Prosperity strategy that delivers lasting socio-economic benefits for its host nations.
https://www.defenseworld.net/2025/09/07/tullow-oil-lontlw-stock-price-up-6-9-heres-why.html
Oil demand growth in India looks set to outpace China’s underlying gains this year, according to Trafigura Group.
“We would be constructive on Indian demand,” Chief Economist Saad Rahim said at APPEC by S&P Global Commodity Insights on Monday. “This year, Indian demand is set to outstrip China’s, if you exclude strategic stockpiling.”
China and India — the region’s leading crude importers — are key drivers of demand growth, as producers and traders navigate the impact of economic shifts, plus the spread of renewable energy. While growth in the South Asian nation is being driven by urbanization and rising incomes, China is facing slowing crude consumption growth aside from in petrochemicals.
Still, overall consumption growth in China this year has been supported by consistent builds in stockpiles, both commercial and strategic. That accumulation has helped to support global crude prices even as OPEC+ restored idled capacity at a rapid clip, including an additional loosening at the weekend.
The stockpiling of roughly 200,000 barrels a day in recent months has helped to support demand, Frederic Lasserre, global head of research and analysis at Gunvor Group, said on the same panel. The stockpiling is evident in China’s continued imports through refinery-maintenance season, he said.
“Today, China is willing to stockpile and increase their SPRs,” Lasserre said, referring to strategic petroleum reserves. Even so, it’s unlikely that the country can build that over the long term, and it might not be able to absorb all of the impending market surplus, he said.
Going into next year, there are also fewer clear drivers for global demand, Rahim added, even as more supply comes onto the market, making it difficult to see how the extra oil will be soaked up.
“Is there enough demand to absorb this?” he asked. “We’re talking about — next year — just under a million barrels a day of demand growth. Unless you’re talking about double that, just on the demand side, it’s really very hard to see.”
(Updates with comments in seventh and eighth paragraphs.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trafigura-says-indian-oil-demand-052139386.html
SHANGHAI (Reuters) -Chinese rating agency CSCI Pengyuan assigned a domestic triple A rating to U.S.-blacklisted Russian oil giant Gazprom on Friday, as media reported Beijing was preparing to reopen its domestic bond market to major Russian energy firms.
"Gazprom's rating reflects its strategic importance and legal ties to the Russian government," CSCI Pengyuan said.
The firm's credit profile "is underpinned by its strong business profile as one of the market leaders in the global oil and gas industry and its important position in Russia's energy market", it added.
The "AAA" rating with a stable outlook came just days after Russia and China gave their blessings to the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline.
Gazprom made the announcement during Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to China last week.
Late last month, senior Chinese financial regulators told top Russian energy executives that they would support their companies' plans to sell renminbi "panda bonds", the Financial Times reported on Sunday, citing sources.
Companies typically obtain the credit ratings before selling bonds in China.
However, CSCI Pengyuan cited "high geopolitical risks" associated with Gazprom, which was sanctioned by the U.S. following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
"Sanctions and geopolitical disruptions have adversely affected the company's operations, leading to a decline in gas export revenue and volume in 2023," the rating agency said.
"As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, operational uncertainties persist."
Last month, CSCI Pengyuan also assigned "AAA" credit rating to Zarubezhneft, a mid-scale upstream oil company fully owned by the Russia Federation.
(Reporting by Shanghai Newsroom; Editing by Sumana Nandy)
https://www.globalbankingandfinance.com/CHINA-GAZPROM-RATING-c9515a77-7605-4c6c-bd46-a2a3f0de6902
(Reuters) - WaterBridge is seeking a valuation of up to $2.28 billion in its initial public offering in the U.S., the oilfield water management company said on Monday, underscoring strengthening momentum in the new listings market.
U.S. listings have rebounded from a slump in April sparked by tariff-driven market volatility, as signs of progress in trade negotiations and resilient investor demand restored confidence in the market.
The Five Point-backed company said it would sell 27 million shares, priced between $17 and $20 apiece, to raise as much as $540 million.
Houston, Texas-based WaterBridge is a pure-play water infrastructure firm mainly operating in the Delaware Basin. It is involved in gathering, transporting, recycling and handling produced water for oil exploration and production firms.
The listing comes more than a year after the New York debut of fellow Five Point-backed LandBridge, with which WaterBridge partners to use underutilized pore space in the Delaware Basin to meet rising water-handling demand.
Its customers include BPX Energy, Chevron, Devon Energy, EOG Resources and Permian Resources.
Asset manager Horizon Kinetics has indicated interest in buying up to $120 million worth of shares in the offering.
J.P. Morgan and Barclays are the lead underwriters for the offering.
WaterBridge will list on the New York Stock Exchange and NYSE Texas under the symbol "WBI."
(Reporting by Prakhar Srivastava and Arasu Kannagi Basil in Bengaluru; Editing by Shreya Biswas)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/five-point-backed-waterbridge-eyes-134843487.html
By Irina Slav - Sep 09, 2025, 12:30 AM CDT
A senior executive from shipping major Maersk has joined the chorus of bearish oil price predictions following OPEC+’s decision last Sunday to extend their production hikes for another month.
“I think there's a high risk to the downside for sure when it comes to kind of overall global balances,” Emma Mazhari, chief executive of oil trading at the Danish company. She added that oil demand was growing weakly, which would contribute to the imbalance with supply.
Mazhari made her prediction at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, which kicked off on Monday in Singapore, following similar predictions by Goldman Sachs and S&P Global, the organizer of the event.
Oil prices, however, have stabilized around $66 for Brent crude and $62.50 for West Texas Intermediate.
Goldman said it expected a supply overhang of as much as 1.9 million barrels daily next year to push Brent crude down all the way to $55 per barrel. The bank noted, however, that OPEC+ may refrain from bringing back all the barrels it says it will bring back. It also noted that the price forecast depended on an assumption of a rebound in OECD oil inventories, which have been trending over 100 million barrels below the five-year average this year.
Also at the APPEC conference, Dave Ernsberger, co-president of S&P Global Commodity Insights, said that “If there’s a massive surplus, if Russian oil continues to flow into the market, if stock-building stops and some of this stuff goes into commercial inventory, contangos blow out, we can see a lower price than that.”
This is a rather conditional forecast, which may go some way towards explaining why oil prices actually brushed aside the news of another monthly hike from OPEC+. Supply security appears to be more precarious than assumed by many analysts, hence the seemingly counterintuitive reaction of oil traders at the news.
By Emily Chow and Marwa Rashad
MILAN (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil expects strong growth in demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in China, driven by transport and marine sectors, and sees rising opportunities in new markets across Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America, a senior company executive told Reuters on Tuesday.
China, the world's largest LNG importer, signed deals on September 2 to boost gas supply through the existing Power of Siberia pipeline and to build the Power of Siberia 2, raising concerns in that this could displace China's appetite for imported LNG.
"Recent Russia-China gas agreements don't change our plans and expectations in China," said Andrew Barry, vice president of global LNG marketing and chairman of Exxon Mobil LNG market development.
"I’m very bullish on China, we believe that LNG will continue to grow and be competitive in the China landscape," he said on the sidelines of Gastech conference in Milan, adding that LNG-fueled trucks and marine vessels are expanding fast and are massive growth areas in China.
In August, Exxon forecast global demand for gas to rise more than 20% by 2050 from last year's level, as it displaces coal to power industries and meet higher electricity use in developing countries.
Barry said the top U.S. oil and gas producer was in discussions across several regions for potential investments and target markets, declining to give further details.
"There are new markets that have a need for natural gas and need for LNG, and the demand is there, but they haven't the infrastructure in place yet, but we see that in Asia Pacific, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, South Africa, and Colombia are significant potential markets," he said.
Barry dismissed concerns about an LNG oversupply as projects in Qatar and the U.S. start to come online from next year, saying that demand will rise to meet the supply.
The $10 billion, 18 million metric ton per annum Golden Pass terminal in Sabine Pass, Texas, jointly owned by Exxon and QatarEnergy, is one of the projects that should bring new supply to the market later this year.
Barry said that Train 1 at the project is 97% complete, and that the company aims for first LNG from Train 1 around the end of the year.
(Reporting by Marwa Rashad and Emily Chow; Additional reporting by Francesca Landini; Editing by Marguerita Choy)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-bullish-chinas-lng-demand-150523492.html
Standard Bank CEO Sim Tshabalala defends the East African Crude Oil Pipeline project, saying its benefits outweigh environmental risks. The bank has funded the $5 billion project, which has faced opposition from environmental groups. Tshabalala believes that Africa has a right to economic development and that people need energy and income. The project is expected to be finished in H1 2024.
Standard Bank Group Ltd. CEO Sim Tshabalala has defended the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) project, stating that its benefits outweigh the environmental risks. The $5 billion project, which aims to transport landlocked crude from Uganda to the coast for export, has faced opposition from environmental groups and activists. Tshabalala, speaking at a conference in Johannesburg, emphasized that Africa has a right to economic development and that people need energy and income.
The EACOP project, operated by TotalEnergies, is expected to be completed in the first half of 2024. It has faced scrutiny from environmental groups and activists who have scrutinized potential lenders. The project has received funding from Standard Bank, which hired an independent adviser in 2021 to decide on its involvement. The bank announced its decision to proceed with funding three years later, stating that the project is "below $100 million" in cost.
Tshabalala’s position reflects a broader debate between African governments seeking to develop their oil and gas resources and groups in the West that advocate for more sustainable energy sources. The project aims to support Africa’s growth by providing a mix of renewable and transitional projects. TotalEnergies holds a 62% stake in the pipeline, with state-owned Tanzania Petroleum Development Corp. and Uganda National Oil Co. each owning 15%, and CNOOC Ltd. holding the remainder.
The EACOP project, which includes six pumping stations and a heat tracing system, is designed to transport oil from Tilenga in Uganda to the port of Tanga in Tanzania. The route of the pipeline was designed to minimize environmental impact, with careful attention paid to watercourses and horizontal drilling used for sensitive areas. The project is expected to generate 0.8 million tons of CO2 per year at plateau production, or around 13.5 million tons of CO2 over its 20-year operating life.
Despite the environmental concerns, Tshabalala maintains that the project is worth the investment. "Yes, there are environmental costs, but these are being minimized, and the net effect is that the project is worth it, now and into the future," he said.
References:[1] https://totalenergies.com/company/projects/oil/tilenga-and-eacop-projects-acting-transparently-uganda-tanzania
[2] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/standard-bank-says-net-effect-of-east-africa-pipeline-worth-it
US demands EU stops buying Russian gas if it wants new sanctions on Putin - FT
The Trump administration has demanded that the European Union (EU) halt its purchases of Russian gas if it wishes to join in proposed sanctions targeting nations that continue to support the Kremlin's war effort in Ukraine. This stance comes as the EU is considering new sanctions on Russian banks and energy companies, aiming to increase pressure on President Vladimir Putin to end the conflict [1].
The EU is already exploring a package of measures that could include sanctions on Russian payment and credit card systems, crypto exchanges, and further restrictions on the country's oil trade. The bloc is coordinating these efforts with the US, with a delegation of EU officials set to travel to Washington this week to meet with US counterparts [1].
The US has been weighing sanctions on Moscow's covert fleet of oil tankers and energy firms Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC, while the EU is considering tighter sanctions on major Russian oil companies and export bans on goods used by Moscow's military industry [1].The EU has also been considering a ban on Russian oil imports by January 1, 2028, but some member states, including Hungary and Slovakia, are resisting this plan due to concerns about energy prices and potential shortages [2]. Meanwhile, the US has started punishing countries that continue to buy Russian fuel, with India being one of the most recent targets of US tariffs [2].The US has expressed disappointment with Russia's continued aggression and has called for increased cooperation from European partners. The Trump administration wants Europe to join in sanctions with Washington and to stop purchasing Russian oil, a senior White House official told The Post [3]. This demand comes as the US is considering new sanctions, with President Trump suggesting that a Russian economic "collapse" could bring Putin to peace talks with Ukraine [1].
The EU and the US are also discussing a massive gas purchase deal, with the EU promising to buy $250 billion worth of US energy each year under an ongoing trade deal. However, analysts have called this target unrealistic, as the EU lacks the power to control private energy company imports [2]. Despite these challenges, the EU is moving forward with its plan to slash its dependence on Russian oil and gas, with the bloc's energy ministers expected to approve the plan at their next meeting [2].
References:
[2] https://www.cryptopolitan.com/eu-sticks-to-ending-russian-oil-imports/
[3] https://nypost.com/2025/09/02/world-news/us-wants-europe-to-stop-buying-russian-oil-join-proposed-sanctions/
https://www.ainvest.com/news/demands-eu-stops-buying-russian-gas-sanctions-putin-ft-2509/
State producer Saudi Aramco is lowering the price for its flagship crude to its biggest market by US$1 a barrel for shipments in October.
Dubai – Saudi Arabia will cut prices on all its crude grades for buyers in Asia, as well as on most barrels to other regions, after Opec+ said it will continue to ramp up output, defying widespread expectations of a looming oversupply.
State producer Saudi Aramco is lowering the price for its flagship Arab Light crude to its biggest market by US$1 a barrel for shipments in October, according to a price list seen by Bloomberg. The grade will sell for a premium of US$2.20 a barrel to the regional benchmark in October , lower than expected by refiners and traders.
The company was expected to decrease the price by 50 US cents a barrel, according to a survey of refiners and traders.
Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed over the weekend to press on with raising production further, following accelerated hikes during the past few months. The alliance is seeking to reclaim market share it had ceded to rivals, and in the process may be breaking with its traditional aim of defending crude prices.
Aramco also is cutting prices on all of its crude grades to Europe by 80 US cents a barrel, and lowering most of the barrels set for the US. The only grade unchanged is Arab Light to the US, which is set at a premium of US$4.20 a barrel in October, flat to September.
The larger-than-expected price cut for Asia is surprising and sends a potentially bearish signal, according to traders dealing in oil in that region.
Aramco’s crude marketers are currently meeting refiners and traders at Asia’s largest energy gathering in Singapore, where they are likely discussing contract volumes for the coming year.
Aramco previously raised Asia’s prices for August and September in the face of bigger Opec+ quota hikes, indicating confidence that summer demand remained strong. That flush market may begin to wane as added supply comes online.
Crude in London has slipped about 12 per cent in 2025 to trade near US$66 a barrel. UBS Group sees prices dipping to US$62 a barrel by the year end, while Goldman Sachs Group anticipates a drop to the low US$50s in 2026 .
Still, the Opec+ supply increases during the past few months have not yet caused a build-up of inventories in the West, where the world’s key oil price benchmarks are located.
The decrease in Aramco’s selling prices after two consecutive months of hikes for buyers in Asia may come as a relief for refiners fretting about the potential for weakening margins amid a potential oversupply.
Healthy summer demand supported by travel in the US and Europe and domestic needs in the Middle East propped up prices in the past months, though that is set to wane as winter approaches.
BLOOMBERG
&imwidth=800&imheight=600&format=webp&quality=medium "'Share the pain together': Trump tells EU to slap 100% tariffs on India, China to choke Russia’s oil lifeline")
US President Donald Trump is asking the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100 per cent on imports from India and China, in a joint push to raise the economic cost for Russia over its war in Ukraine, according to the Financial Times. The US president made the demand during a meeting in Washington on Tuesday (September 09).
Trump tells Europe to 'step up'
“We’re ready to go, ready to go right now, but we’re only going to do this if our European partners step up with us,” one US official told FT. Another said Washington was prepared to “mirror” EU tariffs on India and China, which could mean further hikes on goods from both countries.
Trump, according to officials, said that “the obvious approach here is, let’s all put on dramatic tariffs and keep the tariffs on until the Chinese agree to stop buying the oil. There really aren’t many other places that oil can go.” He said, "Any of these things will of course be costly, and for the president to do it, we need our EU partners and ideally all of our partners with us. And we’ll share the pain together.” He added that the move would only work if Europeans had “the political will to bring the war to an end.”
India hits back at US tariffs
The push comes just weeks after Washington slapped a punitive 25% tariff on Indian imports over New Delhi’s Russian oil purchases, taking total duties as high as 50%. India has denounced the measures as “unfair, unjustified and unreasonable,” while pointing out that the US and EU continue trading with Russia themselves. In 2024, EU trade with Russia stood at €67.5 billion, with services trade reaching €17.2 billion in 2023, according to European Commission figures.
Despite the tariff threats, Trump later softened his tone, posting on Truth Social, he said, “India, and the United States of America, are continuing negotiations to address the Trade Barriers between our two Nations. I look forward to speaking with my very good friend, Prime Minister Modi, in the upcoming weeks.”
EU divided on next steps
While some European capitals are debating secondary sanctions on China and India for buying Russian oil and gas, many remain cautious given their deep trade links with Beijing and New Delhi. US diplomats have also made clear that Washington does not intend to target India and China without Europe’s full participation.
Saudi Aramco, the world’s biggest crude oil exporter and the Saudi state-owned oil giant, is back tapping the debt markets this year with an offering of dollar-denominated Islamic bonds, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing a source with knowledge of the plans.
Aramco is said to be offering Islamic bonds, the so-called sukuk, in five and ten-year issuances in what would be the Saudi oil firm’s second debt issue this year and Saudi Arabia’s third in one week.
In May, Saudi Aramco issued a total of $5 billion in five, ten, and 30-year bonds, in U.S.-dollar denominated international bonds under its Global Medium Term Note Programme.
Lower oil prices have reduced Aramco’s cash flows in the first quarter of the year, and the second quarter showed even larger declines in cash flow and profits as prices slumped.
At the end of last year, Aramco slashed its performance-linked dividend as oil prices fell from the 2022 and 2023 highs, and Aramco struggled to pay with the cash flow the huge dividends to its shareholders, the biggest of which with over 90% is the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Aramco plans to continue tapping the debt markets for more borrowings to fund growth, CEO Amin Nasser told Bloomberg TV in May after the world’s biggest oil firm issued the $5 billion bond.
Now Aramco prepares another bond issue, per Bloomberg’s source in the know.
The issue would be the third for Saudi Arabia in just a week after the Kingdom last week sold $5.5 billion in Islamic bonds, orders for which hit $17.5 billion, and the sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund (PIF), sold earlier this week $2 billion of 10-year dollar bonds to fund part of its investment plans.
The busy bond issuance from Saudi Arabia in recent weeks suggests that the decline in oil prices this year is straining the Kingdom’s finances. Saudi Arabia’s budget deficit is growing this year as oil prices are down from last year’s levels and well below the $90 per-barrel price the Kingdom is estimated to need to balance its budget.
By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com
By BRIAN DABBS, CARLOS ANCHONDO | 09/11/2025 06:26 AM EDT
A new EU rule will restrict imports that exceed strict limits on methane emissions. That could be a problem for American LNG exports.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright (right) holds a report concerning U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas, accompanied by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum (left) as they speak to reporters at the White House.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright (right) and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, seen here speaking about liquefied natural gas exports in March, are urging European leaders to ditch methane limits for imported energy. AP
The Trump administration is aiming to sabotage a European climate regulation that could thwart U.S. plans to export hundreds of billions of dollars of fossil fuels.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum are ramping up the pressure this week, during a diplomatic blitz that includes stops at the Gastech conference in Milan and a trip Thursday to Brussels. They have urged Europe to rethink a methane regulation that will restrict imports that exceed strict emission levels for methane, a potent greenhouse gas.
The trip comes just weeks after the White House and EU inked a trade framework to send $250 billion of U.S. energy, including liquefied natural gas, to Europe annually over the next three years.
“There’s a number of sort of nontariff barriers that I think are problematic for growing energy into Europe,” Wright said Wednesday at a press conference in Milan, pointing to the methane regulation. “Wouldn’t be good for America … wouldn’t be good for Europe.
“We want to engage in those dialogues,” he said.
The EU’s methane regulation is set to take full effect in 2027, after EU officials adopted it last year. That could be a problem for the U.S. oil and gas industry, which may not be able to meet the new standards.
The rule could deprive U.S. producers of a lucrative market, said Brenda Shaffer, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center and a researcher at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School.
“It was obvious there was going to be a collision course over the methane content,” she said in an interview. “The main producing American companies have made it very clear that they really can’t comply with this and that it’s a huge obstacle to supplying the European market.”
In a statement Wednesday, the American Petroleum Institute called the regulation “ill-conceived,” arguing it undercuts U.S. industry.
“We will continue working with the administration to push for delayed implementation and ensure any compliance requirements for U.S. energy exports are practical,” said Aaron Padilla, vice president of corporate policy at API, a major U.S. oil and gas lobbying group.
The pressure on Europe is part of a broader Trump administration push to boost global consumption of fossil fuels, even as temperature rise is poised to pass thresholds that will bring far more extreme weather, according to the United Nations and most climate scientists. Along with carbon dioxide, methane is a powerful, climate-warming greenhouse gas.
The Trump team is urging allies to embrace fossil fuels to meet rising demand from artificial intelligence projects and increased electrification. At Wednesday’s press conference, Burgum argued that losing the AI race was a bigger threat than climate change (see related story).
“What’s going to save the planet is winning the AI arms race,” Burgum said at the press conference. “I’m worried about the next generation, but that’s all solvable. The real existential threat right now is not a degree of climate change, it’s the fact that we could lose the AI arms race if we don’t have enough power.”
The Trump administration is in the process of rolling back climate regulations, as well as the endangerment finding that is the legal and scientific underpinning of such rules.
A recent DOE report — released in tandem with the proposed endangerment finding repeal — attacks widely accepted climate science and downplays the risk of global warming. It has been met with fierce opposition from many scientists, who point to rising sea levels and more catastrophic wildfires and hurricanes. Wright, who handpicked the authors of the report, routinely says cheap power and technological innovation will allow the globe to adapt to rising temperatures.
On Wednesday, White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers said Trump’s “America First agenda is focused on restoring America’s energy dominance, protecting our national security through energy independence, and driving down costs for American families and businesses.”
“The Trump Administration will not jeopardize our country’s economic and national security to pursue vague climate goals,” Rogers said in an emailed statement.
A lucrative European market
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 triggered a dramatic reduction in Russian gas sales to European countries. Over the ensuing years, U.S. suppliers stepped in to fill the void with LNG, and the EU ramped up power generation from wind and solar.
Between 2021 and 2023, EU gas demand dropped by nearly one-fifth. Some analyses project it will drop even further by the end of the decade.
Still, the European market saw the largest gas demand increase in the world in the first half of 2025, rising 6.1 percent compared to the same period last year, according to a new report from the International Gas Union. The report attributed some of that increase to cold winter temperatures and underwhelming renewables.
That means the European market continues to be big for U.S. exports and profits. This week, the Italian utility Edison inked a deal with Shell to import U.S. LNG, starting in 2028. U.S. firm Venture Global also recently signed a pact with Italian energy company Eni to import LNG.
Amid the pressure from the Trump administration, some experts think Europe might relax the methane rules.
Nacho García-Lajara, a senior analyst for Europe Gas and LNG Markets at the consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said U.S. LNG is necessary to “ensure balance and security of supply.”
“It is foreseeable that the agreements resulting from the negotiations stemming from the tariffs imposed by the US administration… will include certain exemptions or more favourable conditions for North American LNG supplies,” García-Lajara said in a statement to POLITICO’s E&E News. “In the grand scheme of things, this coincides with the period in which the EU has proposed to abandon Russian gas and LNG exports altogether.”
Wright has been sounding the alarm in recent days on the methane regulation.
“The whole trade talks would fall apart if Europe or the U.S. don’t hold up their end of the deal,” he told the Financial Times this week. “I think those regulations significantly threaten the ability to implement the trade deal that was agreed to.”
The EU regulation includes a methane transparency requirement on imports. Starting in January 2027, importers have to demonstrate that contracts “concluded or renewed on after” Aug. 4, 2024, cover oil, natural gas or coal that is subject to monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) measures that are equivalent to EU requirements. For contracts made before that date, importers “shall undertake all reasonable efforts” to require that their fossil fuels are subject to those same MRV measures, the rules says.
Climate concerns
Climate activists are concerned the EU will cave to U.S. pressure by relaxing the regulation, expanding emissions trading options that allow LNG imports or giving the U.S. the power to certify its LNG meets the regulation.
“The general vibe is not good,” said Myriam Douo, a Brussels-based senior campaigner with the environmental group Oil Change International. “I think definitely we will see pressure from Chris Wright for the EU to cave on the [methane regulation], which they should not and definitely cannot do.”
Many experts say U.S. exports of natural gas, along with exports from other countries like Russia and Qatar, face big challenges in complying with the regulation.
“U.S. gas people say, ‘our gas is so clean; we don’t have any leakage rate,’” said Jake Schmidt, senior director for international climate at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “And so, they’ll have the ability to prove that in the real world if they want to sell gas to Europe.
“If they’re not, then they won’t be able to sell gas to Europe,” Schmidt said.
Douo called U.S. gas “very dirty,” due to methane leaks, flaring and other industry practices.
Still, Jonathan Banks, global director of methane pollution prevention at the Clean Air Task Force, said the United States is in “a pretty good position” to comply with the European methane standards and to gain some market advantage over competitors.
The proliferation of state and federal regulations around methane have helped to “change the culture of the companies that operate in the United States, in many ways, to prioritize more efficient operations that reduce the amount of gas that’s wasted to the atmosphere,” Banks said in an interview.
While the Trump administration has targeted many of those policies, “the learnings that both policymakers as well as companies have gone through over the last decades” still represent a competitive advantage for the U.S., Banks said.
Experts are quick to point out that the U.S.-EU trade pact and fossil fuel commitments aren’t legally enshrined. The July agreement is a framework, not a traditional free trade agreement that takes years to negotiate and pass through Congress.
“At the end of the day, deals are made between companies,” Shaffer said. “It’s not clear how much governments could obligate those sales from either side, but clearly it’s an aspiration of the administration.”
https://www.eenews.net/articles/wright-and-burgum-urge-europe-to-rethink-methane-curbs/
MUNICH (Reuters) -Chinese battery maker CATL's new plant in Hungary is expected to start production by early next year, its general manager for Europe said on Sunday, as the company looks to the region for growth.
CATL invested 7.3 billion euros ($8.55 billion) in the plant in the eastern city of Debrecen, seeking to expand battery production in Europe for automakers such as BMW, Stellantis and Volkswagen.
The new site would dwarf CATL's existing European battery production facility in the German state of Thuringia, with a planned annual production capacity of 100 gigawatt-hours and a 9,000-strong workforce.
CATL's general manager for Europe Matt Shen told Reuters the current goal was to start production at Decrecen "at the end of this year or beginning of the next year, so the next four, five months".
The company had initially hoped to launch production by the end of 2025.
CATL is one of many Chinese players attending this year's IAA Mobility car show in Munich, which officially kicks off on Tuesday, as European carmakers struggle to keep up in the shift to electric vehicles.
CATL has been extending its lead in the EV battery market, with a 38% share globally in 2024, up from 36% a year earlier, according to data from SNE Research.
The company raised $4.6 billion in its Hong Kong stock exchange debut in May, which helped fund the Hungarian project.
Shen shrugged off concerns about sluggish demand for EVs in Europe.
"There are always some fluctuations," he said. "For the overall trend, there is no doubt about that."
($1 = 0.8535 euros)
(Reporting by Rachel More; Editing by Susan Fenton)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-battery-maker-catl-expects-162533245.html
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) is one of the best electric vehicle supply chain stocks to buy right now. Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s new-car registrations in the U.K. went up by 7.63% in August. Another group, New AutoMotive, said sales of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) rose by 20% in August, even though total new car sales in the U.K. fell by 2% compared to last year.
Tesla’s (TSLA) UK Sales Grow Amid Challenges in Global Delivery Markets
However, this is in stark contrast to Tesla’s global sales. During Q2 of 2025, Tesla delivered 384,122 vehicles. That’s a 13.5% drop year-over-year. The company is facing more competition, especially in big markets like China, and demand has slowed down.
To counter the lower sales, the company recently released its Model Y L in China. Tesla is also working on its other segments. During a recent earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said Tesla Energy is growing fast. He also talked about how important it is to get key materials like graphite. Musk said just making batteries in the U.S. isn’t enough; Tesla needs to make sure it can get the raw materials, too. The company is now building more partnerships with suppliers back home.
Even with the recent drop in sales, Tesla’s stock is still priced very high. It has a forward P/E ratio of 248.48, which shows that investors expect the company to grow a lot in the future. A lot of that hope comes from new things Tesla is working on, like self-driving cars and robots. Wall Street thinks Tesla’s revenue could grow more than 31% every year for the next five years.
While we acknowledge the potential of TSLA as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-tsla-uk-sales-grow-140818236.html
By Charles Kennedy - Sep 10, 2025, 2:30 AM CDT
An immigration raid on an LG Energy battery plant under construction in Georgia has had a ripple effect on several other projects led by the South Korean company in the United States, Bloomberg has reported.
The report said LG Energy had sent out an internal notice for the immediate return to South Korea of all workers and contractors who were in the United States under a short-term visa-free travel program. The notice also advised personnel on a B-1 visa to stay in their hotels until further notice. An earlier report by Korea News Daily said work at 22 projects led by South Korean firms in the United States has been disrupted.
The U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency detained close to 500 people at the Ellabell EV battery plant that is currently under construction in Georgia. The ground for the detention was suspicion that there were illegal migrants at the site. Following the raid, the ICE said it had found people “fraudulently using visitors’ visas”.
The news sent shockwaves through industries where there is heavy foreign investment. The FT quoted one law firm executive as saying other companies were worried they could also become targets for ICE raids because they, too, employ foreign nationals in their U.S. projects.
Another law firm source told the FT that “It may be an aggressive use of the B-1 category for business meetings, or it could be an over-reach by ICE, and they may have taken a more restrictive view of what’s allowed as a business visitor than what’s in the regulations.”
The ICE raid also led to tension between Washington and Seoul right after the two presidents met to discuss cooperation. South Korean companies are among the biggest investors in the U.S., and LG Energy is near the top of that list with billions pledged for battery plants. The one in Georgia alone had a price tag of $4.3 billion.
A group at SIL’s 2025 Soy Tour in Malawi’s Lower Shire Valley.
Newswise — URBANA, Ill. — Malawi’s Lower Shire Valley is changing. Over 14 years, the Shire Valley Transformation Program will turn 42,500 hectares (over 105,000 acres) into irrigated farmland, giving nearly 50,000 smallholder farmers a real chance at building prosperity and generational wealth. Irrigation infrastructure, along with favorable climatic conditions, will allow farmers to grow two to three crops each year, doubling or tripling their profit potential.
The SVTP is also making it possible for rural Malawi to establish soybean as the national standard for protein and oil, thus entering the global market for soybean, which has never before been processed on a large scale in the region. But with help from the Soybean Innovation Lab (SIL), based in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, soybean is set to take off in Malawi.
For 12 years, SIL has worked to develop the soybean value chain in Africa and beyond, bringing evidence-based guidance on breeding, agronomic practices, mechanization, processing, and marketing. While SIL offers expert advice, its goal has always been to identify and empower “strong nodes” — organizations on the ground that can develop and sustain local capacity without relying on external support.
In late August, SIL and partner organizations created and hosted the first-ever Soy Tour, bringing dozens of decision-makers to tour processing plants and soybean fields in the Lower Shire Valley. Attendees learned everything from plant spacing and disease management in the field to milling and oil refining in processing plants.
The result?
“It’s go time,” said Peter Goldsmith, SIL director and professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics in ACES. “They’re all in. That’s partly because they know they’ll be supported by what SIL brings to the table — locally adapted seed and input recommendations, disease surveillance networks, research-backed agronomic practices, appropriate seed and fertilizer, mechanization innovation, processor capacity building, market development, and more.”
The SVTP is also supporting other high-value crops, but Goldsmith says soybean is different. As one of the world’s most valuable agricultural commodities, soybean offers greater and more immediate potential for individuals and the region to prosper. Expanding the soybean market in Malawi also benefits global trading partners.
“Currently, in Malawi, feeds are not soy-based. The food oil is not soy oil. So, they’re not importing beans,” he said. “But that’s changing. We’ve got processors with more than enough capacity who are now learning how to process soy, and they want more.”
Some of those beans will eventually come from the Lower Shire Valley, where farm managers are already trialing locally adapted varieties and learning management best practices. But the rest — especially if Malawi changes regulations around genetically modified foods — could be imported from the U.S.
In the Lower Shire Valley, SIL is partnering with Palladium, as well as Agricane, Ilovo, and Malawi Mangoes, who in turn oversee grower cooperatives to provide training, equipment, and other support. SIL and Palladium invested in these strong nodes with $40 million from USAID until February, when the agency shut down and halted all funding for international development. Fortunately, SIL’s work in the Lower Shire Valley could continue thanks to an anonymous $1 million donation. Palladium leveraged a similar investment from the Irish government.
“While gift funds are appreciated and keep things moving forward, more formal and strategically placed investments in the past allowed SIL to succeed in its mission to establish the foundations of the soybean market in Sub-Saharan Africa. We hope either private investors, the commercial sector, or another large donor will jump in with funding so SIL can continue transforming the largest and fastest-growing new market for soy in the world,“ said Michelle da Fonseca Santos, associate director of SIL.
To contribute to SIL’s work in the Lower Shire Valley and beyond, visit the donation page, select “other” as your gift designation, and enter “336899 — Soybean Innovation Lab (SIL).” Potential donors may also contact ACES Advancement at 217-333-9355.
The SVTP is backed by the World Bank, the African Development Fund, the OPEC Fund for International Development, and the Global Environment Facility.
Now, NOAA's National Interagency Drought Information System (NIDIS) has issued a special Midwest drought report and outlook. The NIDIS bulletin's key points include the rapid development and expansion of either Abnormally Dry conditions (D0 on the Drought Monitor) or Moderate to Severe Drought (Drought Monitor levels D1 and D2) during the past 30 days. Missouri, Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio are specifically noted. In addition, central Michigan is in Moderate to Severe Drought and has been for almost an entire year.
Declining soil moisture and low streamflow are leading to stress on crops and livestock. Low water levels in the Ohio River are also affecting river transportation on the Ohio and the Lower Mississippi waterways.
The NOAA/NIDIS report concluded that "Due to the potential for continued dry conditions and the return of above-normal temperatures by mid-September, drought is expected to persist through September across southeastern Missouri, far western Kentucky, southern and central Illinois, and Michigan. Further drought development is expected across Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, northwest Kentucky, and southern Michigan."
A look at some DTN forecasts for rainfall during the balance of this week in the Midwest shows the following in inches: St. Louis, Missouri: zero; Peoria, Illinois: 0.18; Springfield, Illinois: 0.08; Indianapolis, Indiana: 0.04; Cincinnati, Ohio: zero; Paducah, Kentucky: 0.03; Lansing, Michigan: 0.05. Rainfall forecasts are as of Sept. 8.
A year ago, dryness at the end of the row crop season was a factor in lower corn and soybean yields at the end of the harvest season compared to initial estimates. USDA final yield numbers on corn were 4 bushels per acre (bpa) less and soybean final yields 2.5 bpa less than the August estimates.
The full NOAA/NIDIS drought discussion is available here: https://www.drought.gov/…
Bryce Anderson can be reached at bryce.anderson@dtn.com
(c) Copyright 2025 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.
Gold exploded to a new record high of $3,649 per ounce on Monday after fresh U.S. job numbers pointed straight at a likely interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.
The enthusiasm pushed spot gold up by 1.3% to $3,631.66 just before 10 a.m. Eastern, while December futures rose 0.5% to $3,670.80.
Peter Grant, who serves as vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals, said the metal might keep going.
“Continued labor market softness and expectations of ongoing Fed rate cuts into early 2026 could provide sustained support for bullion,” he said, adding that gold could test the $3,700 to $3,730 range in the near future. Every dip, Peter said, could just bring in more buying.
China extends gold buying as Bitcoin holds under $115K
So far this year, gold has already surged 38%, after rising 27% throughout 2024, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar, aggressive buying from central banks, and global political tension. China’s central bank just made its 10th consecutive monthly gold purchase in August, adding even more fuel to the run.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin hasn’t moved an inch. The coin has been stuck below $115,000 for weeks, showing no clear breakout while gold eats up all the attention.
Its 25 Delta Skew (1 Month) is rising, which reflects more demand for put options, a tool typically used by institutions to hedge downside as they increase their crypto exposure through ETFs and DATs. That means institutions are playing it safe, even as they enter the space.
On the equity side, Goldman Sachs has listed gold mining stocks among its top recommendations heading into the last quarter of 2025. Analysts, led by David Kostin, said they expect gold to jump 14% more by 2026, driven by steady central bank and ETF demand. “Gold mining stocks should rally alongside the underlying commodity,” David’s team said in a note sent out on Friday.
The stock gains are already real. Dakota Gold, Anglogold Ashanti, and Newmont have all doubled in price this year. SSR Mining has tripled, while Perpetua Resources is up 75% and Royal Gold has gained 41%.
Goldman also pointed to two more trades. First, alternative asset managers still haven’t recovered their post-election highs under President Donald Trump, even with better conditions in capital markets. Second, firms sitting on piles of floating-rate debt could benefit as soon as the Fed hits the brakes on rates.
Lastly, the bank expects the S&P 500 to rise 2% by year-end and another 6% by mid-2026, if the Fed follows through on those cuts.
https://cryptorank.io/news/feed/cc88e-gold-hits-all-time-high-of-3650
Silver prices in India surged sharply on Tuesday (September 9) amid strong global and domestic demand. Rates for 1 kg of silver stood at ₹1.30 lakh, up ₹3,000 from the previous session.
Prices of 100 grams also rose by ₹300 to ₹13,000.
In global markets, silver climbed to a fresh 14-year high, supported by expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, a softer US dollar, and declining Treasury yields.
“Silver is considered not just a precious metal but also an industrial commodity of prime importance. Persistent supply deficits, diminishing inventories, and rising use in solar power, electric vehicles, and electronics are strengthening demand,” said Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures.
She added that analysts are setting near-term targets in the range of ₹1.35 lakh–₹1.50 lakh per kg.
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta Equities, noted, “On the technical front, silver has support at ₹1.24 lakh–₹1.23 lakh per kg and resistance at ₹1.26 lakh–₹1.27 lakh per kg.”
Interestingly, silver has outperformed gold in recent years, both over the past 12 months and on a three-year basis, according to a Value Research analysis (September 8, 2025).
Despite this performance, gold continues to attract higher inflows from Indian investors, with analysts cautioning that historical trends suggest silver’s sharp rallies often come with heightened volatility.
By Anushree Mukherjee and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese
(Reuters) - Gold hit a record high above $3,600 an ounce on Tuesday, spurred by expectations of U.S. rate cuts, concerns about Federal Reserve independence and robust demand from investors and central banks.
Having hit a record high at $3,673.95 a troy ounce, spot gold was trading around $3,637.39 at 1524 GMT for a gain of more than 38% so far this year.
Analysts expect gold to trade in a $3,600-$3,900 range in the near to medium term and see potential for it to test $4,000 next year if economic and geopolitical uncertainties persist.
A Reuters survey published in July showed analysts expected gold prices to average $3,220 this year compared with $3,065 in the April survey and $2,756 an ounce in the January survey.
"Supportive for gold is the bearish dollar outlook underpinned by expectations of Fed cuts, investors distancing from U.S. assets and tariff-related economic uncertainty," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades.
The dollar has fallen nearly 11% since Donald Trump returned to the White House in January. Expectations of further U.S. rate cuts will further undermine the U.S. currency, which when it falls makes dollar-denominated gold cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Traders see a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut in September when the Fed meets, according CME Group's FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, Trump's criticism of Powell and attempts to remove Governor Lisa Cook have heightened concerns over the Fed's independence and sparked further gold purchases.
"The most bullish wildcard is ... potential interference with the U.S. Federal Reserve and concerns about the dollar's status as a safe-haven," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.
Among other factors fortifying gold's appeal are security concerns emanating from the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine. Central bank gold purchases such as those by China have also provided impetus to gold prices.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks plan to raise the gold portion of their reserves while reducing dollar reserves over the next five years.
Physically-backed gold exchange traded funds have also seen significant inflows. Holdings in the the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest physical gold ETF, rose to 990.56 tons on September 2 for a over 12% increase so far this year and its highest since August 2022.
(Reporting by Anushree Mukherjee and Sherin Elizabeth Varghese in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Kavya Balaraman; Editing by Pratima Desai and xxxxx)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-rallies-record-u-rate-161014599.html
Zijin Gold International, a wholly-owned unit of China’s mining giant Zijin Mining, is planning to start bookbuilding for its Hong Kong initial public offering next week, targeting a valuation of over $30 billion, said two people with direct knowledge of the matter.
Zijin Gold will open its books on September 19, aiming to seek over $3 billion in the float, said one of the sources.
At that size, it would be Hong Kong’s second-largest listing this year, according to LSEG data, after Chinese battery giant CATL raised $4.6 billion in its offering in May.
Zijin Gold’s offering will be priced on September 24 with the debut slated for September 29, said the sources, who declined to be named as the information was confidential.
Based on the estimated price range, Zijin Gold would be valued between $30 billion and $40 billion, said the other source.
The timetable, offering size, and company valuation may change due to market conditions or unexpected events, the sources said.
Zijin Gold, which holds all of Zijin Mining’s gold mines outside China, did not immediately respond to Reuters requests for comment.
Zijin unveiled in late April its plan to spin off Zijin Gold International and list it on the Hong Kong bourse as part of a reorganization of its overseas gold assets, reflecting its confidence in stepping up investment in the gold business.
The proposed listed gold assets will comprise eight mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa and Oceania.
Gold prices have staged a record-breaking rally, hitting $3,673.95 per ounce on Tuesday, driven by growing geopolitical uncertainty, heightened expectations of a US interest rate cut this month and persistent central bank buying in various countries including China.
As a result, banks have been raising their gold price forecasts, with ANZ now expecting a year-end price of $3,800 per ounce, while Goldman Sachs last week said prices could surge well above its $4,000 baseline by mid-2026.
Benefiting from the surge, shares of Laopu Gold, a Chinese luxury gold jewellery brand, closed at HK$755 a piece on Wednesday, up nearly twenty-fold from their HK$40.50 IPO price in June 2024.
Zijin Gold, incorporated in Hong Kong in 2007, reported revenues of $1.8 billion, $2.3 billion and $3 billion respectively in the last three financial years, it said in a June IPO application filing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
Zijin Gold did not disclose the use of IPO proceeds in the filing.
Its parent said in the half-year report Zijin Gold’s listing would be of strategic significance in achieving its goal to mine between 100 tons and 110 tons of gold by 2028.
(By Kane Wu and Amy Lv; Editing by Tomasz Janowski and Sonali Paul)
Europe needs to help its copper smelters by stemming “huge” flows of scrap metal to China, Germany’s Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said, potentially opening up a new front in trade tensions.
“The Chinese are buying copper scrap from the market in huge quantities,” Reiche said at a Siemens Energy AG event in Berlin on Monday. “Large German copper smelters are no longer getting anyraw materials.”
Concerns about the supply of raw materials to China indicate the growing politicization of global supplies of raw materials, which has intensified in the face of the protectionist policy of US President Donald Trump.
However, any steps by the European Union to limit supplies will only exacerbate trade tensions, which have already strained relations between Brussels and Beijing.
Katerina Reiche said that it is necessary to develop a pan-European policy to ensure that China will not be able to simply offer a higher price than European steel mills for the removal of scrap metal from the region, without specifying what restrictions may be imposed. This issue should be part of a broader concept of the sustainability of European economies, the German official said.
Over the past five years, China has increased purchases of copper scrap as Chinese steel mills have increased production and copper ore supplies have risen in price. However, this year there are new trends: Beijing is seeking to purchase copper scrap in many other countries after exports from the United States, previously its largest supplier, have sharply declined.
In the first seven months of this year, China imported about 204,000 tonnes of copper scrap from EU countries, which is 3.5 percent more than a year earlier. However, supplies from the EU make up only a small part, about 15 percent, of China’s total imports.
08 September 2025
By Yi Guan, CFA
Posted In: Drivers of Value, Economics, Equity Investments, History & Geopolitics, Investment Topics, Philosophy, Portfolio Management
When China restricted exports of gallium and germanium in 2023, markets were reminded that supply chains can be disrupted. These metals may not be household names, but they are critical to semiconductors, defense systems, and renewable energy, which is why the restrictions drew immediate market attention.
Investors are again turning to supply chain resilience as a portfolio concern. Rare earth elements sit in the same category as gallium and germanium. Embedded in electric vehicles, advanced weaponry, and clean energy infrastructure, rare earth elements represent one of the few asset themes where geopolitics directly drives market outcomes.
That reality was underscored in July, when the United States backed MP Materials, its only active rare earth miner, with a multibillion-dollar package including equity, loans, and a 10-year price floor on neodymium and praseodymium. The deal, discussed further in Winston Ma’s Enterprising Investor analysis of a potential US sovereign wealth fund, shows how policy is moving from rhetoric to concrete capital commitments.
For investors, the right question isn’t whether rare earths can “beat the market.” It’s whether they can provide diversification and resilience in moments when traditional portfolios are vulnerable.
A Portfolio Framing: Rare Earths as a Stress Hedge
To evaluate this, I built a Maximum Sharpe Ratio portfolio using five ETFs:
The goal was not to design a market-beating strategy, but to evaluate whether rare earth exposures add portfolio resilience. I used monthly returns from January 2018 to July 2025, a 36‑month rolling covariance matrix, and quarterly rebalancing. The results:
If judged solely on Sharpe ratio, the portfolio underperformed broad equities. But this misses the real point: rare earths tend to outperform during geopolitical shocks and supply chain disruptions, precisely when traditional portfolios are most at risk.
For investors, the practical takeaway is to test rare earths alongside other diversifiers, such as commodities, infrastructure, or defense equities, in a satellite sleeve.
When Rare Earths Shine
Looking at recent episodes of stress and transition highlights how rare earths can function as a hedge when traditional portfolios stumble.
These bursts illustrate the real value: rare earths function as a shock absorber. They won’t replace equities, but they can provide a counterweight when macro risks flare.
Figure 1.
Practical Applications
Key Takeaways
A newly identified mineral deposit, known as ‘Oyut’, has been discovered within the territories of Bayan-Undur and Jargalant soums, located in Orkhon aimag, Mongolia, MONTSAME reports.
Photo credit: MONTSAME
Photo credit: MONTSAME
Preliminary geological exploration has revealed that the Oyut deposit holds an estimated 357 million tons of ore reserves. This positions it as a potential asset comparable in scale to Erdenet, Mongolia’s largest copper and molybdenum ore mining operation, and a longstanding contributor to national economic growth and budgetary support.
Prime Minister of Mongolia, Zandansahtar Gombojav, attended the official opening and preparatory activities for the operational launch of the newly discovered Oyut Copper deposit on September 7, 2025.
Photo credit: MONTSAME
The Prime Minister has authorized a feasibility study for the construction of a concentrator designed to process 5 to 10 million tons of ore per year at the Oyut deposit. Early estimates suggest the deposit could support operations for 30 to 35 years, marking it a long-term strategic resource. Initial geological exploration was independently conducted by specialists from the Erdenet Mining Corporation, whose senior engineers will oversee the project’s design and construction.
PM emphasized Mongolia’s constitutional commitment to equitable resource distribution, stating that the benefits from subsoil resources shall be consolidated into the National Sovereign Wealth Fund and fairly allocated to all citizens. Under the 2019 Constitutional amendment, every citizen is entitled to accumulate savings from these resources in personal accounts and use them according to individual needs.
Photo credit: MONTSAME
Looking ahead, any planning or construction activities in regions where new mineral deposits or zones of mineralization are likely to be discovered should be undertaken in close consultation with relevant stakeholders and in cooperation with local and regional administrative bodies to ensure transparency, sustainability, and equitable development.
The operational model of Erdenet Mining Corporation serves as a compelling example of how Mongolian professionals have successfully specialized in the mining sector, acquiring expertise, technical knowledge, and practical experience over decades of industrial development.
The Oyut copper deposit is situated approximately 8 kilometers from the Erdenetyn-Ovoo deposit, the basis of the Erdenet Mining Corporation, and just 3 kilometers from the infrastructure of the Industrial and Technology Park near Erdenet city, offering strategic logistical advantages for future development.
The launch of operations at the Oyut deposit is expected to make a substantial contribution to the Sovereign Wealth Fund, reinforcing Mongolia’s constitutional mandate for fair distribution of subsoil resource benefits. It will also serve as a key driver of socio-economic development in Erdenet city, Orkhon aimag, the Northern region, and Mongolia as a whole.
Noteworthy, Kazakhstan will open 3 new copper ore deposits.
https://qazinform.com/news/mongolia-unveils-oyut-copper-deposit-with-357-mln-tons-of-ore-ca2677
Image: Minakryn Ruslan/adobe.stock.com
Anglo American is nearing a deal to acquire Canada’s Teck Resources in a transaction that could create one of the world’s largest copper producers.
Bloomberg reported that discussions are in advanced stages, and the deal could be announced as soon as this week, although the terms of the transaction remain unclear.
The acquisition comes amid growing confidence that global copper demand will be boosted by the energy transition. Teck, which mainly holds copper assets, became an attractive target after exiting coal in 2023.
Teck, which has a market capitalisation of about $US17.17 billion ($26.04 billion), is set to produce up to 525,000 tonnes of copper this year, with plans to expand production further.
Anglo’s bid for copper comes as it delivered a strong second quarter in 2025, performing well in its copper divisions.
“I am pleased to report another solid quarter in copper and iron ore, with both businesses tracking to guidance,” Anglo American chief executive officer Duncan Wanblad said.
“In copper, we benefited from strong performance at both Quellaveco and Los Bronces, while Collahuasi improved from its first quarter. In iron ore, our focus on operational excellence is also continuing to drive the right results with another excellent quarter of delivery from both Minas-Rio and Kumba.”
Copper production for the quarter reached 173,300 tonnes. While this represents an 11 per cent year-on-year decrease due to planned lower output in Chile, production was up three per cent quarter-on-quarter thanks to stronger output from Collahuasi and higher plant throughput at Quellaveco in Peru.
Anglo’s potential bid follows previous consolidation attempts in the mining industry. Last year, Anglo rejected a takeover approach from BHP, which sought to expand its copper portfolio.
The company rejected the offer in May 2024, which added another $4.4 billion to BHP’s original $60 billion offer.
Anglo said the Big Australian’s stipulation of a demerger between Anglo and Anglo American Platinum and Kumba Iron Ore was “highly unattractive”.
ISLAMABAD (AP) — A U.S. metals company signed a $500 million investment deal with Pakistan on Monday.
Pakistan’s Frontier Works Organization — which is the country's largest miner of critical minerals — signed a memorandum of understanding with Missouri-based U.S. Strategic Metals for collaboration plans that include setting up a poly-metallic refinery in Pakistan.
The deal comes after Washington and Islamabad last month reached a trade agreement that Pakistan hoped would attract American investment in its minerals and oil reserves.
U.S. Strategic Metals is focused on producing and recycling critical minerals, which the U.S. Department of Energy has defined as essential in a variety of technologies related to advanced manufacturing and energy production.
A second agreement was signed between the National Logistics Corp of Pakistan and Mota-Engil Group, a Portuguese engineering and construction company.
A statement from Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif's office said he held talks with the delegation from U.S. Strategic Metals and Mota-Engil over Pakistan’s copper, gold, rare earths and other mineral resources.
The sides expressed readiness to develop value-added facilities, enhance mineral processing capacity, and undertake large-scale projects tied to mining, the statement said.
“The partnership will begin immediately with the export of readily available minerals from Pakistan, including antimony, copper, gold, tungsten, and rare earth elements,” it added.
The U.S. embassy in Pakistan said in a statement: “This signing is yet another example of the strength of the U.S.-Pakistan bilateral relationship that will benefit both countries.”
Earlier this year, Sharif claimed that Pakistan possesses mineral reserves worth trillions of dollars, and foreign investment in the mineral sector could help the country overcome its prolonged financial crisis and free itself from the burden of massive foreign loans.
Most of Pakistan's mineral wealth is in the insurgency-hit southwestern Balochistan province, where separatists have opposed the extraction of resources by Pakistani and foreign firms.
In August, the U.S. State Department had designated the Balochistan National Army separatist group and its fighting wing, the Majeed Brigade, as a foreign terrorist organization.
Oil and minerals reserves have also been found in the southern Sindh, eastern Punjab and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa bordering Afghanistan.
Several companies have already signed agreements with Pakistan in the mining sector. They included the Canadian firm Barrick Gold, which already owns a 50% stake in the Reko Diq gold mine in Balochistan.
The Associated Press
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/u-firm-agrees-500-million-201515385.html
Panama is preparing to open talks with First Quantum Minerals (TSX: FM) on the possible restart of its shuttered Cobre Panamá copper mine, with discussions expected to begin late this year or in early 2026.
Commerce Minister Julio Moltó confirmed that a comprehensive environmental audit of the mine will start in the coming weeks. The review, conducted by SGS Panama Control Services, will assess environmental, social and economic impacts, including employment opportunities for Panamanians.
The mine has been closed since November 2023, after Panama’s Supreme Court declared its operating contract illegal. Moltó told local newspaper El Capital Financiero that the audit should take three to four months to complete. Once results are in, the government will begin talks with First Quantum.
President José Raúl Mulino has identified the reopening of Cobre Panamá as a top priority for his administration, following reforms to the country’s Social Security Fund pension system.
Minera Panamá, First Quantum’s subsidiary, and other companies tied to the project have suspended international arbitration proceedings against the government, clearing the way for talks.
Economic pillar
Before its closure, Cobre Panamá ranked among the world’s largest copper producers, yielding 350,000 tonnes in 2022, its final full year of operations. The mine contributed about 5% of Panama’s GDP, and First Quantum estimates the suspension has cost the country up to $1.7 billion in lost economic activity.
Mine workers, contractors, unions and nearby communities have publicly called for a restart, citing its economic importance. The government, however, has stressed that the audit must come first before any decision on reopening.
First Quantum has maintained the facility to ensure it can resume operations if an agreement is reached.
https://www.mining.com/panama-to-weigh-first-quantum-copper-mine-restart-by-early-2026/
Chinese alumina prices moved lower in both the spot and futures markets on September 9, while spot alumina trading remained sparse amid ample supplies. The national average spot price of metallurgical-grade alumina with purity exceeding 98.6 per cent assessed by Mysteel fell by RMB 18 per tonne (USD 2.5 per tonne) from Monday to RMB 3,132 per tonne on Tuesday, marking the sixth consecutive daily decline.
By region, the assessed prices in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan provinces each slid by RMB 25 per tonne from the prior day to average between RMB 3,030 per tonne and RMB 3,095 per tonne. In the south, prices in Guizhou province and the Guangxi autonomous region dropped by RMB 10 per tonne and RMB 5 per tonne to sit at RMB 3,245 per tonne and RMB 3,240 per tonne respectively.
The persistent decline across China pointed to intensifying pricing pressure on the supply side in the country's five key alumina production bases, where surplus alumina availability left producers and traders little choice but to cut offering prices, market watchers said.
On the demand side, many primary aluminum smelters with sufficient raw material stocks showed a momentum-driven mindset, favoring purchases in a rising market while staying on the sidelines when prices are falling, market watchers added.
This kept trading sparse in the domestic spot alumina market. Mysteel heard of only one deal concluded on September 9, in which an alumina trader sold 3,000 tonnes of spot goods sourced from Guizhou to a primary alumina smelter based in Sichuan province at RMB 3,180 per tonne EXW. The settlement price was RMB 40 per tonne lower than a similar deal done on August 26, Mysteel Global noted.
Meanwhile, domestic alumina futures also weakened further yesterday. The most-traded January 2026 alumina contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed Tuesday's nighttime trading session 1.29 per cent lower at RMB 2,906 per tonne, following the 1.21 per cent decrease recorded by the end of the daytime session, according to the exchange's data.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc inventory has recorded a decrease of 200 tonnes, reaching 50,825 tonnes as of September 10, 2025. Compared to the previous week, the cumulative total decrease in inventory is 4,400 tonnes, representing a 7.97% drop. Over the past month, the inventory has decreased by 29,600 tonnes, or 36.80%. Historically, the inventory has fluctuated between a high of 278,850 tonnes on September 12, 2022, and a low of 15,600 tonnes. The average inventory level is 149,253.496 tonnes. Currently, the inventory is 19.366% lower than the average.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) zinc inventory has seen a notable decrease, falling by 200 tonnes to reach 50,825 tonnes as of September 10, 2025. This marks a cumulative decrease of 4,400 tonnes over the past week, equating to a 7.97% drop. Over the past month, the inventory has decreased by 29,600 tonnes, representing a 36.80% reduction Zinc gained as US dollar dropped sharply after crucial [1].
Historically, the LME zinc inventory has fluctuated between a high of 278,850 tonnes on September 12, 2022, and a low of 15,600 tonnes. The average inventory level stands at 149,253.496 tonnes. As of the current date, the inventory is 19.366% lower than the average Zinc gained as US dollar dropped sharply after crucial [1].
The decrease in inventory is attributed to several factors. Weak demand signals from China, the world’s top consumer, have been weighing on sentiment. Concerns over slowing Chinese industrial activity continue to cloud the demand outlook. However, losses were capped on expectations of possible production cuts by Chinese miners and refiners, aligning with earlier moves from global producers. For instance, Teck Resources’ Red Dog mine reported a 20% drop in Q1 output, while Nyrstar announced a 25% annual cut, tightening supply fundamentals Zinc gained as US dollar dropped sharply after crucial [1].
On the inventory front, LME zinc stocks have dropped sharply by 130,000 tonnes since the beginning of the year, now at just 42,000 tonnes, signaling tighter global availability. In contrast, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories rose 1.3% last week, reflecting short-term domestic supply additions Zinc gained as US dollar dropped sharply after crucial [1].
Technically, zinc is under long liquidation as open interest fell 2.24% to 3,672 lots alongside a 1.95 price decline. Support lies at 272.1 and further at 270.7, while resistance is seen at 275.1 and then 276.7 Zinc gained as US dollar dropped sharply after crucial [1].
References:
Zinc gained as US dollar dropped sharply after crucial [1] https://in.investing.com/news/commodities-news/zinc-gained-as-us-dollar-dropped-sharply-after-crucial-weak-jobs-data-4995737
https://www.ainvest.com/news/lme-zinc-stocks-200-ton-sep-10-previous-day-2509/
Higher copper costs lift Korea Zinc and LS MNM margins while squeezing appliance makers' profits
Yang Beom-soo Published 2025.09.11
As China cuts production of electrolytic copper (refined copper), expectations for price increases are growing. China is the world’s largest producer of electrolytic copper, accounting for about 40% of total output. As the supply of electrolytic copper shrinks, expectations are rising that domestic copper smelters’ profitability will improve. However, demand-side companies such as home appliances could face higher cost burdens.
According to the London Metal Exchange (LME) on the 11th, as of the 9th, the copper price stood at $9,823 per ton (about 13.65 million won). This is 7.4% higher than last year’s average price. This year, copper prices hit a high of $10,115 in June and fell to $9,553, but they have been rising as demand increases due in part to the U.S. import copper tariff under the Donald Trump administration.
Smelting work to melt ore and produce copper is underway at LS MnM Onsan Smelter, present. /Courtesy of LS MnM
In this situation, announcements of production cuts by major electrolytic copper producers are fueling projections that copper prices could rise further. Earlier, Japan’s JX Metals announced plans to cut production by tens of thousands of tons, saying profits had shrunk due to excessive treatment and refining charges (T/RC) for copper. On top of that, China has halted tax rebates for metal fabricators, and Chinese smelters are planning production cuts.
As a support measure for the reverse invoice system introduced in April, Chinese local governments decided to refund taxes to metal fabricators. The reverse invoice system, introduced to improve tax transparency for copper scrap, requires buyers to issue tax invoices to sellers. Through this, the Chinese government has collected 3% or more of copper scrap transaction amounts as tax, and local governments have refunded it to preserve corporations’ revenue.
However, late last month, when the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) of China banned the rebate measure, problems emerged in the copper scrap supply chain, and Chinese copper smelters began considering production cuts. In addition, with scheduled maintenance overlapping at five smelters capable of producing 900,000 tons annually, overall output is expected to decline.
Market research firms SMM and BMI projected that this month the operating rate at Chinese smelters will fall 8.3 percentage points from the previous month to 59.9%. They also expected electrolytic copper output to drop by 4% to 5%.
Because of this, there are forecasts that copper prices will exceed $10,000 per ton between September and October, when copper demand rises. The Korea Mine Reclamation and Mineral Resources Corporation said, “China’s policy to restrict copper scrap supply and Japan’s production cuts are acting as upward pressure on prices.”
If copper prices rise, it could help the profitability of LS MNM and Korea Zinc, which smelt copper concentrate and sell it. That is because product prices can be raised in line with rising raw material prices. In addition, if the power infrastructure industry reflects higher costs in selling prices, revenue increases.
However, industries that find it difficult to pass copper price increases on to prices could see profits decline. The home appliance sector, which uses copper wire, finds it hard to immediately reflect higher raw material costs in consumer prices. The same goes for automakers, which use copper in batteries and electric motors.
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-industry/2025/09/11/I2MCC7NMORB3JG2AEBEIHSCFNE/
Pig iron production amounted to 5.11 million tons, and steel production amounted to 4.91 million tons
In January-August 2025, Ukrainian steel enterprises reduced their production of commercial rolled steel by 1.4% compared to the same period in 2024, to 4.25 million tons. This is evidenced by data from Ukrmetprom.
Pig iron smelting increased by 8% y/y – to 5.11 million tons, while steel production fell by 6.8% y/y – to 4.91 million tons.
In August of this year, rolled steel production increased by 14.7% compared to the previous month and by 7.4% compared to August 2024, to 633,200 tons. Pig iron smelting increased by 8% month-on-month and 16.1% month-on-month to 747.5 thousand tons, while steel smelting fell by 6% year-on-year and increased by 11.9% month-on-month to 649.4 thousand tons.
As reported by GMK Center, in 2024, Ukraine’s steel industry increased rolled steel production by 15.8% compared to 2023, from 5.37 million tons to 6.22 million tons. Last year, pig iron production increased by 18.1% y/y, from 6 million tons to 7.09 million tons, and steel production increased by 21.6% y/y, from 6.23 million tons to 7.58 million tons.
The industry’s results in 2024 turned out to be much better than expected. At the same time, according to GMK Center analysts’ forecasts, 2025 will be difficult as the global steel market is going through a crisis period. Steel exports from Ukraine are likely to decline, the price situation will worsen, and import restrictions will tighten around the world.
https://gmk.center/en/news/ukraine-produced-4-25-million-tons-of-rolled-steel-in-january-august/
Steel imports rise while copper imports fall amid trade pressures.
China’s iron ore imports saw a slight increase in August, according to official data released by the country’s customs authority. The world’s largest consumer of the commodity imported 105.23 million tonnes, marking a 0.6 per cent rise from the previous month. In related news, imports of steel products also experienced growth, climbing 11.1 per cent to 0.50 million tonnes. Conversely, steel exports saw a decline of 3.4 per cent, settling at 9.51 million tonnes.
Data regarding other commodities revealed a decrease in copper imports. August figures show 425,000 tonnes of copper were imported, an 11.5 per cent drop. China’s unwrought copper and copper product imports encompass a range of items, including anode, refined, alloy, and semi-finished copper products. The nation exported 534,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products. These include primary, alloy, and semi-finished aluminium products, a decrease from July’s 542,000 tonnes.
Additional economic indicators released on Monday showed that yuan-denominated exports experienced a 4.8 per cent year-on-year increase in August, while imports grew by 1.7 per cent. China’s economic activity continues to be affected by international trade dynamics.
These shifts occur against a backdrop of ongoing trade tensions. The trade policies of the US administration, characterised by reciprocal tariff increases with China, have exerted pressure on China’s export-driven economy. This situation, combined with subdued domestic demand, presents considerable challenges for Chinese economic policy makers
https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2025/09/08/chinas-iron-ore-imports-edge-higher-in-august/
Iron ore futures climbed for a sixth straight session on Tuesday, driven by mounting concerns over supply prospects from the giant Simandou project in Guinea, coupled with expectations of improving demand in China.
The most-traded January iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed daytime trade 2.03% higher at 805 yuan ($112.98) a metric ton.
It touched the highest level since July 25 at 814 yuan earlier in the session.
The benchmark October iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was 1.64% higher at $107.15 a ton, as of 08:00 GMT. The contract hit its highest level since February 25 at $107.65 earlier.
Rio Tito could be forced to build a refinery for the Simandou ore project in Guinea, Australia’s Financial Review reported on Sunday.
The giant iron ore project, with an annual production capacity of 120-million metric tons and first shipment expected in November, was seen weighing on prices in the coming years.
But the Guinea government’s intention to process ore locally may reduce the availability of ore being exported, supporting prices, said one analyst and one trader.
Focus is also on the pace of production resumption in the peak season in China and the corresponding restocking needs for raw materials, analysts at broker Shengda Futures said.
Steel mills, which had curbed production for a military parade in Beijing on September 3 to commemorate the end of World War Two, have gradually resumed production from September 4.
Hot metal output was expected to pick up to a relatively high level this week, supporting ore demand, analysts at Jinrui Futures said.
However, shrinking margins and the accumulated steel stocks may suppress mills’ buying appetite, said Shengda analysts, capping the rise in prices.
Coking coal and coke, other steelmaking ingredients, slid 1.66% and 1.21%, respectively.
Most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced. Hot-rolled coil climbed 0.42%, wire rod ticked up 0.12%, stainless steel gained 0.43% while rebar was flat.
Nichole Bastin | Posted on September 8, 2025
The Stainless Monthly Metals Index (MMI) moved sideways, with a modest 1.69% increase from August to September. Interested to learn how stainless steel sourcing companies and food equipment manufacturers reduce procurement costs?
U.S. Stainless Steel Prices Flat in August
U.S. stainless steel prices moved sideways during August. Since their series of announcements in the past months, mills have proven successful at maintaining base price increases. Those same price hikes unwound the historically high discounts that had been witnessed over the past few years.
Although they were longer than at the start of the year, stainless mill lead times also appear stable, suggesting no month-over-month change within the market. While bright annealed products and ferritics supply appear relatively tighter compared to austentics, buyers have reported no significant material shortages to date, particularly with common grades like 304.
Although little has changed from a demand perspective, 50% tariffs on steel and steel-containing products have given domestic mills a significant advantage within the U.S. market, allowing them to increase capacity as a result. This comes despite the long-standing contraction of the U.S. manufacturing sector. While numerous manufacturers have announced reshoring efforts in response to trade barriers, the results will take time to materialize in terms of U.S. stainless steel consumption.
Q4 Could See New Market Shifts
For now, mills have taken advantage of a higher price floor and the increased preference among procurement organizations to source material domestically. Despite soft market conditions in the U.S., manufacturers aim to derisk sourcing efforts in the event that evolving trade policy or geopolitical events trigger another rapid market shift.
While this has kept prices firm in Q3, the balance of power could shift by next year. Suppliers largely agree that there is little likelihood that mills will increase discounts as contracting season approaches. While conditions do not currently justify further price hikes, mills are keen to keep their present position as procurement organizations lock in 2026 contracts.
However, there is some disagreement as to what will happen after contracts are signed. U.S. trade agreements with both the EU and the UK suggested that tariff rate quota agreements are possible. As Outokumpu noted, the European stainless market was exceptionally weak during Q2, a development recently covered in the Monthly Metals Outlook. Tariff-free stainless shipments from the region would offer a more competitive landscape for buyers needing to secure material. Meanwhile, trade negotiations with both Canada and Mexico remain ongoing. Agreements with those nations could offer another headwind for U.S. stainless mills.
Beyond Trade Policy Shifts
It remains worth noting that none of the countries that could potentially secure quota arrangements are among America’s cheapest offshore sources for stainless. For example. material from both Vietnam and Taiwan will remain heavily levied.
Beyond trade policy shifts, North American Stainless also made significant investments to expand capacity. Announced in 2023, the mill’s Ghent facility will include a new cold rolling mill, roll grinders, temper mill, upgrades to its annealing and picking lines and expansion of its melt shop building. Although no official completion date was provided, construction is expected to be completed by the end of 2025. Absent a rebound in demand or meaningful restocking efforts, the combination of potential quota deals and increased U.S. capacity could offer buyers more leverage over pricing.
Nickel Prices Remain Stable
Offering a counterweight to the increased volatility witnessed in stainless steel base prices during the year, nickel prices remain sideways. This has translated into a relatively calm surcharge since the start of 2025.
While the nickel market remains oversupplied, there is no evidence of strong bearish momentum which helped drive prices lower over the last two years. Low prices and environmental violations have forced a number of closures within the nickel market, and further price declines would likely force capacity cuts.
The robust expansion of Indonesia’s nickel industry has provided significant fuel for global overcapacity. The nickel market largely overestimated demand from the EV sector, a fact that, combined with lackluster global stainless steel demand, has caused exchange inventories to continue to rise. LME stocks sit at a 4-year high, while SHFE inventories also appear abundant. These factors are likely to inhibit any meaningful uptrend in nickel prices for the foreseeable future.
Biggest Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Moves
https://agmetalminer.com/2025/09/08/stainless-steel-mills-hold-prices/
Mysteel Global: The Chinese metallurgical coal market is expected to remain in a tight balance in September, with weaknesses in both supply and demand struggling to steer a clear market direction, according to Mysteel's monthly report of the commodity.
Some downward corrections are likely in the first half of this month, the report predicts, citing the rising sales pressure faced by coking coal mines due to end-users' contracted demand.
The downstream steel market may show signs of weakening early this month, dragged by the still sluggish consumption, accumulating inventories and weaker exports. This could further erode steel mills' profit margins and reduce their tolerance for high-priced raw materials including metallurgical coke and coking coal.
The downside pressure on met coke is already evident, as some steel mills in North China's Hebei and Tianjin requested fresh coke price cuts of RMB 50-55/tonne (t) ($7-7.7/t) on Friday morning, and market players expect the met coke market to soften further in the short run.
Mysteel's chief analyst Xiong Chao said domestic steel mills' hot metal output may not return to previous high levels in September due to shrinking steel margins. The combined daily hot metal output of the 247 Chinese blast-furnace mills that Mysteel surveys retreated by a marked 4.7% w-o-w to average 2.29 million tonnes (mnt)/day over 29 August-4 September, falling below the 240-mnt threshold for the first time since early July.
On the supply side, a quick recovery in coking coal production also looks unlikely in September, although most halted mines in North China's Shanxi province are scheduled to resume operations this week. Mysteel's other survey found that the restarts may not add much supply as safety pressures linger.
Moreover, the possibility that Chinese authorities may release more specific measures to tame domestic coal overproduction going forward cannot be ruled out, following submissions of overproduction investigation results from eight major coal-producing provinces and regions in mid-August, Xiong added.
The daily raw coal production among the 523 Chinese coking coal mines under Mysteel's regular tracking declined by 9.7% from a month prior to average 1.7 mnt/day over 28 August-3 September. The figure also presented a large 16.5% fall compared with the year-ago level.
The tight market balance could prevent China's coking coal prices from steep retreats in the near term, but the longer-term outlook is still clouded by uncertainty over domestic steel output cuts, said Xiong. If steel mills decide to slash production in September, the coking coal market could take a heavy blow soon; otherwise, the anticipated recovery in steel consumption could give coal prices room to edge higher, he elaborated.
Mysteel's assessment of the national composite coking coal price sat at RMB 1,189.5/t including the 13% VAT, on 4 September, down by RMB 19.7/t from a month earlier, and the price of the leading brand Anze low-sulphur primary coking coal in Linfen city of Shanxi province posted a RMB 70/t tumble m-o-m to RMB 1,430/t.
