Mark Latham Commodity Equity Intelligence Service

Wednesday 17 April 2024
Background Stories on www.commodityintelligence.com

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Featured

Gold Beans


With China’s deflation at its worst in 15 years, a volatile stock market and bank interest rates too low for her liking, 18-year-old Tina Hong is placing her financial security in gold beans.

Weighing as little as one gram, the beans — and other forms of gold jewelry — are increasingly viewed as the safest investment bet for young Chinese in an era of economic uncertainty. It’s part of a larger consumer trend for all things gold — from bullion to beans and bracelets — that has gripped the mainland.


“It’s basically impossible to lose money from buying gold,” reasoned Hong, a college freshman studying computer science in Fujian province who in January began buying gold beans because of their relatively low cost of about 600 yuan ($83) per gram. She has more than two grams of the beans and will continue buying them as long as costs are lower than international gold prices, she said.

Branded as an investment entry point for young consumers, the beans, which come in glass jars, are the latest hot-selling items in Chinese jewelry stores. Generation Z consumers — buffeted by high youth unemployment and the nation’s slide into deflation — are now among the top consumers of gold accessories in the world’s second-largest economy, according to the 2023 China Jewelry Consumer Trends Report by Chow Tai Fook Jewelery Group Ltd. The attraction of gold comes as people pull back on shopping amid months of disappointing growth.


https://www.mining.com/web/gold-beans-all-the-rage-with-chinas-gen-z-as-deflation-bites/

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Macro

Datacentres to add 20% to US electricity demand by 2030?

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Oil and Gas

Exxon Taps TechnipFMC For Subsea Gear In Guyana's $12.7B Whiptail Project - Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM)

Yesterday, Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM awarded a large contract to TechnipFMC FTI for its Guyana’s Stabroek Block.

As per the terms, TechnipFMC will supply subsea production systems for the Whiptail project.

In particular, TechnipFMC will offer project management, engineering, and manufacturing to deliver 48 subsea trees and associated tooling, as well as 12 manifolds and associated controls and tie-in equipment.

For TechnipFMC, a “large” contract is between $500 million and $1 billion. This award will be included in inbound orders in the second quarter of 2024.

Jonathan Landes, President, Subsea at TechnipFMC, said: “ExxonMobil Guyana will utilize our Subsea 2.0® systems and manifolds, which help provide schedule certainty. We have already delivered more than 100 subsea trees for ExxonMobil Guyana – the location of one of the world’s fastest developing basins – and we look forward to deepening our relationship with them through Whiptail.”

Last week, Exxon and Hess Corporation HES made a final investment decision for the Whiptail development offshore Guyana following receiving the required government and regulatory approvals.

The Whiptail project, worth $12.7 billion, will target an estimated resource base of more than 850 million barrels of oil and include up to 10 drill centers with 48 production and injection wells.

Investors can gain exposure to the XOM stock via Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE and IShares U.S. Energy ETF IYE.

Price Action: XOM shares are down 0.74% at $118.807 on the last check Tuesday.


https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/04/38274712/exxon-taps-technipfmc-for-subsea-gear-in-guyanas-12-7b-whiptail-project

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IMF says escalation in ME, Ukraine can increase oil, food prices

The International Monetary Fund said that supply shocks can cause an increase in the prices of food, energy, and transportation if escalations happen in Ukraine and the Middle East.

In its new World Economic Outlook (WEO), the International Monetary Fund(IMF) said today that an escalation in the Middle East can increase oil prices by 15% and container prices by 150% in the 2024-2025 period.

"Escalation of conflict in the Middle East leads to a surge in oil prices and in shipping costs. Oil prices are 15 percent higher, a moderate increase by historical standards. Average container prices rise by 150 percent in 2024–25, an increase similar to that following recent incidents in the Red Sea," the IMF said.

"Most of the increase in the cost of shipping is concentrated in Asia-to-Europe routes," it added.

However, according to the report, oil and container prices are predicted to go back to their baseline in 2026.

The IMF also said that supply shocks can also cause an increase in the prices of food, energy, and transportation if escalations happen in Ukraine and the Middle East.

"The conflict in Gaza and Israel could escalate further into the wider region. Continued attacks in the Red Sea and the ongoing war in Ukraine risk generating additional supply shocks adverse to the global recovery, with spikes in food, energy, and transportation costs," it stated.

It's already happening

It was reported on April 13 that oil rose to its highest level since October, rising as much as 2.6% to $92 a barrel. Futures have risen by 19% this year, with the Israeli war on Gaza adding a risk premium to the market.

In early April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak stated that global oil prices are increasing partly due to the heated situation in the Middle East, which has recently seen significant escalations.

Novak also pointed out that OPEC+ takes into account the geopolitical factors before making decisions regarding oil outputs.

The World Bank warned last October that the Israeli war on Gaza may push global oil prices as high as $157 per barrel in extensive interruption.

Despite the fact that the world economy is currently doing better than it did in the 1970s, the World Bank issued a warning that the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine may force the world's commodity markets into uncharted territory.


https://english.almayadeen.net/news/Economy/imf-says-escalation-in-me--ukraine-can-increase-oil--food-pr

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BP begins oil production from ACE platform offshore Azerbaijan

BP has started oil production from the new Azeri Central East (ACE) platform as part of Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) oil field development in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea.

The ACE platform, controlled from shore, is the seventh oil producing platform installed on bp-operated ACG field. ACG first began production in 1997 and has since produced over 4.3 billion bbl of oil (OGJ Online, Oct. 22, 2020).

The $6-billion ACE platform and related infrastructure are designed to process up to 100,000 b/d of oil and the project is expected to produce up to 300 million bbl over its lifetime. Oil will pass through the processing infrastructure on the platform and then be exported around 130 km to the onshore Sangachal terminal via a new in-field pipeline linked to an existing 30-in. subsea export line.

ACE is a 48-slot production, drilling, and quarters platform sited midway between the existing Central Azeri and East Azeri platforms in a water depth of 137 m. The project also includes new infield pipelines to transfer oil and gas from the ACE platform to the existing ACG Phase 2 oil and gas export pipelines for transportation to the onshore Sangachal terminal.

The platform contains three production risers - one water injection, one oil export, and one gas export. The first production well was spudded from the platform in December 2023 and was drilled to total depth of 3,150 m. ACE production is expected to increase through 2024 to around 24,000 b/d as two more planned wells are drilled, completed, and brought online.

BP is operator of ACG with 30.37% interest. Partners are SOCAR (25.0%), MOL (9.57%), INPEX (9.31%), Equinor (7.27%), ExxonMobil (6.79%), TPAO (5.73%), ITOCHU (3.65%), and ONGCVidesh (2.31%).


https://www.ogj.com/drilling-production/production-operations/article/55018478/bp-begins-oil-production-from-ace-platform-offshore-azerbaijan

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China imported record amounts of crude oil in 2023

China annual crude oil imports

Data source: China General Administration of Customs, as compiled by Bloomberg L.P.

China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil, imported 11.3 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil in 2023, 10% more than in 2022, according to China customs data. Refiners in China imported record volumes of crude oil in 2023 to supply the country’s increasing refining capacity in order to support the country’s transportation fuel needs and produce feedstocks for its growing petrochemical industry.

Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq were China’s main sources of crude oil imports in 2023. Compared with 2022, China’s 2023 crude oil imports increased the most from Russia, Iran, Brazil, and the United States. China’s largest volumetric increase in crude oil imports in 2023 was from Russia. From 2019 to 2021, China obtained 15% of its crude oil imports from Russia, second only to Saudi Arabia. In 2023, Russia became China’s top source of crude oil imports, supplying 19% of China’s crude oil imports (2.1 million b/d). This increase was the result of discounts related to sanctions and price caps on crude oil from Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

crude oil imports to China from top trading partners

Data source: China General Administration of Customs, as compiled by Bloomberg L.P.

Note: Many imports attributed to Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Oman originated in Iran and were relabeled to avoid detection. Top trading partners are all countries from which China imported more than 150,000 barrels per day of crude oil from 2020 to 2023. Congo=Congo-Brazzaville

The next largest increases in China’s crude oil imports came from Iran, Brazil, and the United States. Customs data indicate that China imported 54% more crude oil (1.1 million b/d) from Malaysia in 2023 than in 2022. However, crude oil imports from Malaysia exceeded Malaysia’s total crude oil production. Industry analysts believe that much of the oil shipped from Iran to China was relabeled as originating from countries such as Malaysia, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman to avoid U.S. sanctions against countries engaging in petroleum transactions with Iran. In 2023, China increased crude oil imports from Brazil by 52%, from 498,000 b/d to 755,000 b/d, and from the United States by 81%, from 158,000 b/d to 286,000 b/d.

Although China’s overall crude oil imports increased, crude oil imports from a few of its largest sources decreased. Notably, after crude oil from Russia became available at a discount when sanctions were imposed, China decreased its crude oil imports from Western Europe, where crude oil prices were relatively high. China’s crude oil imports from Norway decreased 100,000 b/d from 2022 to 2023, and China continued to import much smaller volumes of crude oil from the United Kingdom than before crude oil from Russia was discounted.

Principal contributor: Jimmy Troderman


https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61843

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OPEC eyes Namibia as African country plans oil production in 2030

After losing Angola and other key players, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has set its eyes on Namibia for possible membership after a significant amount of oil was discovered within its shores.

The latest discovery of oil in Namibia would easily make the country the fourth largest oil exporter by output by the next decade, according to an African industry official.

Reuters reported that Total Energies and Shell have, in recent years, made discoveries estimated at 2.6 billion barrels of oil, placing the South African country in a good position to plan production from about 2030.

OPEC’s main goal is to see Namibia join its charter of cooperation and engage in long-term dialogue about energy markets. Brazil joined the charter in January.

OPEC would like to see Namibia become a full member, said NJ Ayuk, Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber, while he said he had been involved in facilitating talks between the two sides.

Meanwhile, OPEC Secretary-General, Haitham Al Ghais, was quoted in February as saying OPEC was holding talks with several nations on joining the charter, without naming them.

OPEC in a tweet at the time said Al Ghais met Namibian Minister of Mines and Energy, Tom Alweendo, at a conference in Nigeria where the prospect of OPEC and Namibia working together “under the umbrella of the charter of cooperation” was raised.

Last year, Namibian Petroleum Commissioner, Maggy Shino, expressed her interest in seeing Namibia join OPEC, according to a report by S&P Commodity Insights, known as Platts.

However, in March 2024, Minister Alweendo told Reuters that OPEC membership for Namibia was not on the cards and does not want to be drawn into the debate.

“We haven’t been approached by anyone to join OPEC. OPEC members are petroleum exporting countries and we are not there yet,” he said. “That is a consideration only after we have started to produce.” Alweendo said.

Talks between both parties are expected to continue into late April with the debate being the key topic in an upcoming Namibian Energy conference with high-ranking OPEC officials in attendance.

What to know

- About 2.6 billion barrels of oil have been discovered in Namibia this decade so far, according to Pranav Joshi, an energy consultant at Rystad Energy.

- Apart from Total and Shell, other energy companies like Chevron, Rhino Resources, Eco Atlantic Oil and Gas and Galp Energia are all conducting exploration and appraisal activities in Namibia.

- By an estimate on the existing discovery, Namibia is expected to produce about 700,000 barrels per day of peak production capacity by next decade.


https://nairametrics.com/2024/04/16/opec-eyes-namibia-as-african-country-plans-oil-production-in-2030/

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Iran’s Attack Is Already Priced Into Oil Prices

We believe the Iranian drone and missile attack on Israel over the weekend places some additional stress on the oil markets. However, we also think the ample public and private forewarning from Iran amid rising regional tensions means the attack was already reflected in oil prices via a higher geopolitical risk premium.

We attribute nearly all the increase in oil prices (to around $91 a barrel from the mid-70s in February) to geopolitical concerns rather than supply risks. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ have about 5 million barrels per day of supply (if not more) that can be returned to the markets if prices overheat and spike above $100 a barrel. We expect more downside risks than upside at the moment, and see a higher potential to touch $75 by the end of 2024 versus a sustained movement beyond $100 a barrel.

We warned in our Oct. 9, 2023 note that the major risk for the oil markets remains a direct escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel. This is not that scenario. We see it as a more limited retaliation for the earlier Israeli strike on the Iranian embassy in Syria. Iran has stated that with this attack, it considers the matter complete.

While we consider tensions in the region somewhat combustible, Saudi Arabia and Iran recently restored diplomatic ties. This suggests we are far from a scenario similar to the one that led to the 2019 attack on the Saudi Abqaiq oil facility, which temporarily shut down more than half of the country’s oil production. The United States and other Group 7 countries are urging Israel to consider its defense against the strike as a success and not retaliate.

The risks to the oil markets remain material if the situation escalates further. Iranian oil production was about 3.1 million barrels per day as of February 2024. Increased US economic sanctions against the country could reduce that amount by 500,000 barrels per day of production. A more dangerous scenario would be an Iranian attempt to close the Hormuz Strait, which handles about 30% of the world’s crude, mostly heading for Asia.

We also think US increases in oil production are an increasing counterweight to a potential conflagration in the Middle East. In December 2023, US oil production was 13.3 million barrels per day, based on data from the US Energy Information Administration, compared with 8 million barrels per day in December 2013. This production should act as a relatively stable source of calm for the markets. On the other hand, the Biden administration has one fewer lever to pull with the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. At 362 million barrels, the inventory has yet to be restocked to 2021 levels of over 600 million barrels.


https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/irans-attack-is-already-priced-into-oil-prices

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Alternative Energy

EPA New England issues three air permits for offshore wind farm projects

BOSTON (April 16, 2024) – Today, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its issuance of Clean Air Act Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) air quality permits for Sunrise Wind, Park City Wind (NEW1) and Park City Wind (NEW2). The permits allow for construction to begin on these three offshore "wind development areas" located in federal waters.

EPA's approvals are in concert with other federal approvals for the projects, including the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management's Records of Decision.

"When built, these projects will contribute 3 gigawatts of energy – powering 1.8 million homes and leaping toward the Biden-Harris administration's goal of generating 30 gigawatts of clean, abundant energy from offshore wind by 2030," said EPA New England Regional Administrator David W. Cash. "New England continues to lead the way to our clean energy future, growing clean tech jobs, and making sure our communities most overburdened by air pollution can breathe clean air and take advantage of green workforce development."

The permits regulate pollutants from OCS sources during the construction phase - such as jack-up barges that will construct each wind turbine and the electrical service platforms. Additionally, emissions associated with air-emitting devices used during the operation of the windfarm, including generators used as a source of back-up electricity for space conditioning where sensitive electronics are housed, and for emission standards for all vessels used within 25 nautical miles of the projects are also regulated.

Electronic copies of the permits, fact sheets, virtual public hearing information, and all supporting materials can be found on EPA's website at: https://www.epa.gov/caa-permitting/epa-issued-caa-permits-region-1

Clean Air Act Permitting by EPA: https://www.epa.gov/caa-permitting


https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-new-england-issues-three-air-permits-offshore-wind-farm-projects

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Precious Metals

Gold prices: Citi forecasts yellow metal to touch $3,000 an ounce in 6-18 months; check today's rates

Gold rates today: Spot gold prices were hovering around $2,378 an ounce on April 16, down 0.25% as against the previous day’s close. In India, the key metal jumped by 0.64% to ₹72,900 per 10 gram at the Multi Commodity Exchange, during the intraday trade.

Gold prices, which have been rallying sharply since the start of this year, will peak to $3,000 an ounce in the next six to 18 months, according to a forecast released by Citi Research. The estimate comes at a time when gold is near to all-time highs, in the backdrop of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The spot gold price peaked to the highest-ever at $2,431.53 an ounce on April 12, as the demand for safe-haven assets shot up in view of Iran planning a military strike on its arch-rival Israel.

The tensions relatively subsided on April 15, as the Iranian strikes over the weekend did not result in any fatalities, and caused only a modest damage. Tehran also issued a statement, noting that it has avenged the Israeli assault on its Damascus consulate and does not want to escalate the conflict further.

However, the gold rally is not only fueled by the geopolitical turmoil. The gold buying spree among central banks around the world, most notably China; and the projection of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve later this year, have added to the surge.

What the Citi forecast says

While Citi has predicted gold to hit the $3,000 an ounce mark in the period of six to 18 months, it sees the baseline at $2,350 per ounce in 2024. This is higher by 6.8% as compared to its previous forecast.

For 2025, the research firm has increased the baseline to $2,875 per ounce, marking an upward revision of 40%. It further anticipates gold testing and surpassing the $2,500 mark several times in this calendar year.

Notably, spot gold prices have rallied by around 20% in the global market in the last one-year period.

What are the gold rates today?

Spot gold prices, in the international market, were hovering around $2,378 an ounce on Tuesday, April 16. This is lower by around 0.25% as against the previous day’s close.

In India, gold was trading higher at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). At 12:02 pm, it was valued at ₹72,900 per 10 gram, higher by 0.62% as against the previous day’s close.

In the retail markets, 24k gold (99.9%) was inching closer to the ₹75,000 per 10 gram mark. In New Delhi, the price stood at ₹74,805 at the end of market hours on April 15. The price stood at Rs ₹74,785 in Mumbai, ₹74,860 in Chennai and ₹74,950 in Kolkata.

Why are gold prices going up?

  • Fed outlook: The US central bank, in its policy review meeting held last month, kept the benchmark rates unchanged in the range of 5.25%-5.5% but projected three likely rate cuts of 25 basis points (bps) each in calendar year 2024. A lower interest rate would translate into the release of higher liquidity in the economy, which in turn would further aid the gold prices, analysts said. The projection of reduced interest rates has boosted the gold buying sentiment among those looking at the yellow metal as medium to long-term investment, analysts added.


  • Chinese demand: China, which is still recovering from the Covid-19 jolt to its economy, has seen a spike in gold purchases by its citizens, as well as the country’s central bank. The People’s Bank of China bought gold for the 16th consecutive month in February. It added around 390,000 troy ounces of the metal during the month, taking its overall holding to 72.58 million troy ounces. With the Fed and other central banks projecting rate cuts in the near future, gold is considered as a safer bet to support foreign reserves, economists explain.


  • Geopolitical risks: The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the escalating tensions in the Middle East, where Israel and Iran are feared to collide amid the ongoing Gaza war, have also boosted the gold prices, analysts said. The reason, they explain, is that gold is traditionally seen as a safe investment instrument in a jittery global market and acts as a hedge against inflation that may be stoked if the global supply chain is disrupted.


https://upstox.com/news/market-news/trading/citi-forecasts-gold-to-touch-dollar3000-an-ounce-in-6-18-months-check-todays-rates/

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Barrick reports lower Q1 gold and copper output

Canada-headquartered Barrick Gold has announced its preliminary figures for the first quarter of 2024, reporting gold output of 940 000 oz and copper output of 40 000 t.

Gold production fell by 12% quarter-on-quarter, which Barrick attributed to planned maintenance activities at its Nevada Gold Mines, in the US, and adjustments in mine sequencing across various sites.

Consequently, first-quarter gold cost of sales per ounce is expected to be 4% to 6% higher, total cash costs per ounce are expected to be 6% to 8% higher, and all-in sustaining costs (AISC) per ounce are expected to be 7% to 9% higher compared with the fourth quarter. However, costs are forecast to decline as production ramps up in subsequent quarters.

Similarly, first-quarter copper production experienced a decline from fourth-quarter levels, primarily owing to lower mined grades at Lumwana, in Zambia, in line with the mine plan.

As a result, first-quarter copper cost of sales per pound is expected to rise by 9% to 11%, C1 cash costs per pound by 10% to 12%, and AISC per pound by 14% to 16% compared with the previous quarter.

Barrick says its production is projected to progressively increase throughout the year, with the Pueblo Viejo plant expansion, in Dominican Republic, set to ramp up from the second quarter and the restart of the Porgera mine, in Papua New Guinea, aligning with the company’s plans.


https://www.miningweekly.com/article/barrick-reports-lower-q1-gold-and-copper-output-2024-04-16

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Base Metals

Copper Eases from 2-Year High

Copper futures were at $4.3 per pound, easing from the two-year-high of $4.4 touched on April 15th as a strong dollar countered limited supplies.

Further evidence of a resilient US economy deteriorated Fed rate cut expectations, lifting the US dollar used to price copper futures and hampering the purchasing power of key consumers.

Still, sanctions on the sector magnified output disruptions to loosely hold the metal’s rally this quarter.

The US and the UK banned the deliveries of Russian copper to the LME in retaliation to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, hammering the supply outlook for the key exchange.

Meanwhile, Chinese copper smelters continued to pursue regulation changes to cut their output by 10% this year, and satellite data noted an increase in offline smelters in March.

Such action would occur as copper ore supply has plunged due to issues in key mines across key mines, pressuring the highly competitive treatment and smelter markets to drop their refining fees to nearly zero.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:410312:0-copper-eases-from-2-year-high/

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Titan Mining arranges US$10 million bridge loan – Resource World Magazine

Titan Mining Corp. [TI-TSX] has announced a US$10 million bridge loan from its largest shareholder Augusta Investments Inc. It said proceeds of this loan have been used to repay part of the company’s credit facility with the National Bank of Canada, bringing the outstanding amount down from $27.2 million to $17.2 million following the payment to National Bank.

The company and Augusta Investments are in ongoing negotiations regarding the terms of this loan and of the US$5.0 million advance made by Augusta Investments earlier this year.

Titan is an Augusta Group company, which produces zinc concentrate at its 100%-owned Empire State Mine located in New York state.

Titan shares were unchanged Tuesday at 35.5 cents. The shares are currently trading in a 52-week range of 65 cents and 24 cents.

Titan recently said its flagship Empire State Mine produced a record 61 million pounds of payable zinc in 2023, marking a 16% increase from 2022.

“As we enter 2024, our plans are to continue the upward trajectory on production while improving our safety performance,’’ said Titan Mining President and CEO Don Taylor.

In a press release containing the company’s results for the year ended December 31, 2023, Taylor said he was pleased that the Empire State mine posted the safest year of operations on record since reopening, with an injury frequency rate of 0.7, or 70% below the national average.

At Empire State, the underground mine and mill complex consists of a group of high-grade mines – ESM#4 which is in production, and six historic mines. ESM #4 restarted mining operations in January, 2018, and began producing zinc concentrate in March, 2018. The mining operation is targeting production from multiple zones, including Mahler, New Fold and Mud Pond.

The ESM #1, #2 and #3, Hyatt, Pierrepont and Edwards mines are all located within a 45-kilometre radius of the 5,000 tonnes per day mill.

Production guidance for 2024 is estimated at between 56-60 million pounds of payable zinc at an all-in-sustaining cost of between US$1.04 and US$1.10 a pound. However, the company said cost targets are highly dependent on treatment charges which won’t be known until the end of the first half of 2024.

Titan said it has begun work to further define the Kilbourne graphite trend, a graphite exploration target hosted within the same stratigraphic sequence as the Empire State Mine’s zinc mineralization. The company said mapping and drilling have documented 8.2 kilometres of strike length to a depth of one kilometre from surface. Approximately 2.5 kilometres of this strike length is within the affected area of the Empire State mine and is covered by current permitting. The remaining strike length is securely within mineral rights held by the mine.


https://resourceworld.com/titan-mining-arranges-us10-million-bridge-loan/

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Iron Ore

Iron ore falls as investors rethink China stimulus prospects after GDP data

Dalian iron ore falls over 1%, Singapore benchmark down over 2% Coking coal up more than 1.5%, coke down over 2% China's March crude steel output falls 7.8% on year

UPDATE 1-Iron ore falls as investors rethink China stimulus prospects after GDP data

Updates closing prices

By Amy Lv and Andrew Hayley

BEIJING, April 16 (Reuters) -Iron ore futures fell on Tuesday, with the Dalian contract falling for the first session in seven, as investors reconsidered stimulus prospects from top consumer China after its first-quarter economic growth topped forecasts.

The most-traded September iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) DCIOcv1 ended daytime trade 1.49% lowerat 826 yuan ($114.10) a metric ton.

The benchmark May iron ore SZZFK4 on the Singapore Exchange slid by 2.73% to $109.15a ton, as of 0708 GMT, after three straight sessions of gains.

China's grossdomestic product (GDP) grew 5.3% year-on-year in January-March, comfortably above analysts' expectations of a 4.6% increase in a Reuters poll and slightly faster than the previous quarter's 5.2% rise.

The market had hoped China would unveil more stimulus in the second quarter after a slew of disappointing data from the world's second-largest economy.

But that hope dimmed after the better-than-expected GDP data, despite the still-sputtering property sector, analysts said.

New home prices in China fell at their fastest pace in more than eight years in March as major property developers' debt woes continued to drag on demand.

Caution also mounted as some traders were wary of possible downside risks following a continuous and rapid increase iniron ore prices.

As of Monday, pricesof the key steelmaking ingredient had climbed by around 8% from last week. That said, ore demand is likely to besupported by expectations of a pick-up in crude steel output in April.

China's crude steel output fell 7.8% year-on-year in March as steelmakers cut production on weaker-than-expected demand and growing inventories, but the decline was somewhat less than forecast.

Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE were mixed, with coking coal DJMcv1 up 1.6% whilecoke DCJcv1 dropped 2.02%.

Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were also mixed. Rebar SRBcv1 and hot-rolled coil SHHCcv1were little moved, while wire rod SWRcv1 shed 0.32% and stainless steel SHSScv1 lost 0.79%.

($1 = 7.2393 Chinese yuan)

Reporting by Amy Lv and Andrew Hayley in Beijing; Editing by Janane Venkatraman and Varun H K


https://www.xm.com/research/markets/allNews/reuters/iron-ore-falls-as-investors-rethink-china-stimulus-prospects-after-gdp-data-53813694

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Steel, Iron Ore and Coal

China's HRC output dips by 1.3% on week

Output of hot-rolled coils (HRC) among 37 Chinese flat steel producers Mysteel regularly monitors reversed down last week from the rises of the five previous weeks, declining 42,600 tonnes or 1.3% on week during April 8-12 to total 3.21 million tonnes, Mysteel'slatest weekly production survey shows.


The hot-rolling capacity utilization rate among the 37 mills also ended the prior five weeks of gains to average 82.09% last week, lower by 1.09 percentage points on week, the survey found.

Behind the on-week decline was the fact that some steel producers in East China halted hot strip mills and some upstream facilities for maintenance during the sample period, survey respondents said.

Meanwhile, total hot coil stocks at the 37 surveyed mills moved lower by 0.9% on week to 878,300 tonnes as of April 11, a consequence of the maintenance stops and the fact that some steelmakers in North China lifted the pace of their HRC deliveries last week.

Besides, hot coilspurchasing among end-users remained steady last week, though most purchases were for immediate use. This also saw HRC stocks at commercial warehouses in the 33 Chinese cities under Mysteel's tracking fall by another 1.62% on week to 3.32 million tonnes.

Overall, the futures prices of major ferrous commodities across China including hot coils, iron ore and coke all strengthened last week. By April 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's most-traded HRC futures contract for October delivery finally closed the daytime trading session at Yuan 3,779/tonne ($522.06/t), higher by Yuan 84/t or 2.27% from the April 8 settlement price.

As of the same day, China's spot price of Q235 4.75mm hot-rolled coil under Mysteel's assessment had also gained Yuan 37/t or 0.99% from April 8 to reach Yuan 3,791/t including the VAT.


https://www.seaisi.org/details/24560?type=news-rooms

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ArcelorMittal raises prices for long products in the EU by €20/t

The company took this step amid of reduced inventory levels in the supply chain in the market

Global steelmaker ArcelorMittal is increasing its offer for all commercial long products in Europe by €20 per tonne. The new price is effective immediately for all new orders, Kallanish reports, citing market sources.

The company has raised prices amid growing demand for replenishment of inventories, as their level in the supply chain is currently low. In addition, the steelmaker needs to restore margins.

Various plants in Italy have considered raising prices to improve margins. Suppliers of rebar, wire rod and commercial bar have already raised or are planning to raise prices by €20/t. However, demand for long products remains significantly depressed, and buyers doubt that the price increase will last.

In early April this year, global rebar prices declined in most major regions. The main negative factor remains unfavorable conditions in the Chinese steel market and weak demand. At the end of March, prices in Northern Europe fell by 1.5% m/m, and in Italy – by 5%. At the same time, as of April 12, Italian quotations for these products recovered to the previous level of €540-570 per tonne.

As GMK Center reported earlier, CMC Poland (a division of the US Commercial Metals Company) expects demand for long products to improve in the country. This will be driven by improved economic data and public investment.


https://gmk.center/en/news/arcelormittal-raises-prices-for-long-products-in-the-eu-by-e20-t/

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