Cargo ships and containers are seen at the container terminal of Nanjing Port, in China’s eastern Jiangsu province on Sept 8, 2026. (AFP Photo)
China’s imports and exports surged in August, helped by a global AI buildout that has fueled demand for technology products and ahead of an expected meeting between President Xi Jinping and U.S. counterpart Donald Trump.
After achieving a historic surplus in 2025, China’s trade has continued to boom this year, in 2026, thanks largely to heightened overseas demand for semiconductors, computing hardware and other products linked to the artificial intelligence boom.
Exports spiked 25 percent year-on-year, the General Administration of Customs said on Sept. 8, accelerating from July’s 23.9 percent growth, though the increase was just short of the 25.9 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Imports swelled 28.2 percent, which was faster than July’s 27.5 percent but less than the 31 percent estimated in the Bloomberg survey.
Strong trade has represented a key lifeline for the Chinese economy in recent months, as domestic activity has been mired in the doldrums.
New growth in 2026 has come from the global AI sector, adding to strengths in other areas including electric vehicles, consumer goods and industrial equipment.
In January through August, the value of China’s exports of computers and related parts surged 49.4 percent, the customs data showed.
“China continues to rely on the exporters to support the economy,” wrote Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
But soaring surpluses with several key trading partners has also become a political issue, as officials overseas argue that waves of Chinese imports are crowding out local competition.
“The U.S. government made it clear at the G20 meeting that they are concerned about this [trade imbalance] issue,” Zhang wrote.
Shipments to the United States climbed 34.4 percent year-on-year last month, compared with the 17 percent increase seen in July.
The latest figures come before Xi and Trump’s expected high-stakes summit in Washington this month.
Last year’s global tariff onslaught unleashed by the U.S. president sparked renewed turmoil in the countries’ trade relationship.
Sky-high levies imposed by Washington and matched by Beijing were tentatively relaxed late last year, after a move by China to severely restrict flows of rare earths to the United States.
Despite the turbulence to global trade last year, China achieved a record $1.1 trillion surplus.
Strong growth in exports to the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa helped offset a steep drop in shipments to the United States, which were hit by the tariff war.
New Delhi: India could face a bigger oil import bill and fresh inflation pressure as international crude prices climb sharply amid escalating tensions in West Asia and concerns over energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude jumped more than 2% to around $99 a barrel on Tuesday, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained nearly 3% to about $94.
India’s Crude Import Bill Jumps 56%
India is particularly vulnerable to rising crude prices as it imports more than 88% of its crude oil requirements.
According to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC) data, India's crude oil import bill surged over 56% to $63.4 billion during April-July, compared with $40.5 billion a year earlier, despite import volumes remaining broadly unchanged.
The Indian crude basket crossed $100 a barrel, averaging $100.75 in September, against $90.19 in August and $82.04 in July.
A prolonged rise in crude prices could increase India's dollar demand, pressure the rupee and trade balance, and push up inflation through higher transport and energy costs.
Oil Companies Face Margin Pressure
Higher crude prices could also squeeze marketing margins at Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation.
Retail petrol and diesel prices have remained unchanged for more than three months after being raised by a cumulative Rs 7.35 and Rs 7.53 per litre, respectively, in May.
ICRA's Prashant Vasisht said rising crude prices could turn auto-fuel marketing margins negative and increase domestic LPG under-recoveries from around Rs 200 per cylinder.
Strait of Hormuz Disruption Raises Risk
The Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries about one-fifth of global oil and LNG supplies, has seen traffic slow sharply. West Asian oil shipments have reportedly fallen to around 11 million barrels per day from roughly 18 million.
For India, a prolonged crude oil spike could raise costs for refiners, airlines, petrochemical companies and other energy-intensive industries while increasing pressure on inflation, the current account and the rupee.
Published on: Tuesday, September 08, 2026, 04:37 PM IST
Venezuela guaranteed that it will respect the oil agreements signed with China and Russia, in a context marked by the unrest generated by the agreement with Washington to explore one-fifth of the country’s crude oil reserves.
“We have agreements with China and Russia, and these are joint ventures with authorization to carry out primary activities currently in force. We respect these agreements very much,” clarified the Minister of Hydrocarbons, Paula Henao, in an interview with the private Venezuelan channel Venevisión on Sunday.
Henao, who was questioned about whether China and Russia would be left out of the Venezuelan oil business following the agreement between Caracas and Washington, also guaranteed that the joint ventures in which these two countries hold a stake “will continue to carry out their activities.”
The White House recently stated that most of the oil fields covered by the bilateral agreement “were previously controlled or operated by Russian and Chinese companies, or by corrupt cronies of [Nicolás] Maduro and [Hugo] Chávez.”
Washington stated that “these bad-faith foreign actors plundered Venezuela’s resources to the benefit of United States adversaries, such as Cuba, Russia, and China, and failed to invest in the infrastructure or development” of the South American nation.
On Tuesday, China demanded that its interests in Venezuela be safeguarded, after some media outlets reported that the new oil deal between Caracas and Washington could affect fields where Chinese companies operated, such as state-owned Sinopec and CNPC.
“China’s legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be safeguarded,” stated Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun during a press conference. The spokesman stressed that cooperation between China and Venezuela “is protected by international law and the laws of both countries.”
For years, China has maintained significant interests in the Venezuelan oil sector, where state-owned companies have participated in exploration and production projects as part of the close economic relationship developed between Beijing and Caracas during chavista governments.
Turkey plans to secure greater access to Russian fertilizer under an agreement expected to be signed today, as disruptions to supplies from the Persian Gulf complicate preparations for the planting season, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing Turkey’s Agriculture Ministry.
The proposed memorandum would exempt shipments to Turkey from Russian export restrictions covering nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers and ammonia. Deputy Agriculture Minister Ahmet Bağcı was expected to sign it in Moscow with his Russian counterpart, Maxim Borovoy.
The ministry told Bloomberg the arrangement was intended to safeguard supplies of both finished fertilizer and the raw materials needed by Turkish producers. Turkey has been struggling to obtain urea from Gulf suppliers since the start of the Iran war and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Turkey’s dependence on imports extends beyond the fertilizer purchased directly for farmers. Domestic factories can produce more than 8 million tons annually, but shortages of imported ingredients constrain output to about 5 million tons, against demand of roughly 7 million tons, according to Bloomberg.
Those ingredients include ammonia, phosphoric acid, phosphate rock, potash and sulfur, leaving domestic production exposed to disruptions in international trade.
The planned agreement follows an earlier easing of Russian restrictions on ammonia and urea exports to Turkey, the ministry said. Moscow has nevertheless retained broader controls to protect its domestic market, including fertilizer export quotas through November and a temporary suspension of ammonium nitrate exports.
Russian supplies also face transport difficulties. Attacks during the war in Ukraine have disrupted Black Sea shipping, pushing more cargo through Russia’s Baltic ports and increasing delivery costs to Turkey.
The fertilizer talks come a week after President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan met with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Kyrgyzstan. Erdoğan signaled plans for further nuclear cooperation with Moscow beyond the Russian-built Akkuyu power plant.
Turkey has maintained relations with both sides during Russia’s war in Ukraine, supplying weapons to Kyiv while declining to join Western sanctions against Moscow.
Ankara has also been seeking a new framework for safe agricultural shipments through the Black Sea. Turkey and the United Nations brokered an agreement in 2022 that allowed Ukrainian exports to resume before Russia withdrew the following year.
The supply concerns come as Turkish households continue to face rising food costs. A monthly survey by the TÜRK-İŞ labor confederation showed that food prices in its Ankara household basket rose 37.9 percent in August from a year earlier.
Roughly 20.2 metric tons of gold flowed into China’s reserves in August, extending Beijing’s steady effort to shift its holdings away from dollar assets and keeping alive one of the market’s most durable sources of demand.
That 650,000 ounce addition pushed the People’s Bank of China’s holdings to 76.73 million ounces, up from 76.08 million at the end of July, official data released Monday showed. The purchase marked a sixth straight month of buying and a 22nd consecutive month of additions.
Not since October 2023, when holdings climbed by 740,000 ounces, has China logged a larger monthly gain. August also topped the 640,000 ounces booked in July, part of an acceleration that began after a modest 160,000 ounce addition in March. The bank added 480,000 ounces in June.
Rising prices did much of the work on the balance sheet. The reported value of China’s gold reserves surged to US$350.08 billion at the end of August from US$306.35 billion a month earlier, though the US$43.7 billion difference mostly reflects the jump in bullion prices rather than the physical buying alone.
Bullion rose 9.7% in August, its strongest monthly advance since January, aided by a weaker dollar, lower Treasury yields and safe-haven demand. A hawkish turn from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh late in the month pressured prices as traders revived bets on further US rate increases.
So far in 2026 the central bank has accumulated about 80 tonnes, taking its total to roughly 2,387 tonnes. The logic is reserve diversification. Gold carries no sovereign credit risk and sits outside another country’s financial system, an attractive trait for a bank whose vast foreign-exchange holdings have long leaned on dollar assets.
Persistent official buying tends to place a structural floor under demand, leaving deep pullbacks more likely to attract fresh interest.
Information for this briefing was found via the sources and the companies mentioned. The author has no securities or affiliations related to this organization. Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Always do additional research and consult a professional before purchasing a security. The author holds no licenses.
https://thedeepdive.ca/chinas-central-bank-buys-the-most-gold-since-october-2023/
European Union regulators are reportedly preparing to warn MMG over its planned acquisition of Anglo American’s (LON: AAL) Brazilian nickel business amid concerns the deal could threaten competition.
The European Commission (EC), the EU’s competition watchdog, plans to issue a statement of objections, or charge sheet, later this month, Reuters reported, citing three people familiar with the matter. The document would outline concerns MMG would need to address to secure approval.
The potential warning comes as the EU seeks to reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals used in defence, technology and renewable energy amid Beijing’s use of export controls on some mineral supplies.
MMG could avoid receiving the charge sheet by offering remedies to address the Commission’s concerns, although one of the people cited by Reuters said that outcome was unlikely.
Supply concerns
MMG agreed in February 2025 to acquire Anglo’s Brazilian nickel business, including two ferronickel operations and two greenfield projects. The Hong Kong-listed miner is controlled by state-owned China Minmetals.
The transaction has faced regulatory scrutiny beyond Europe. Brazil’s competition authority launched an investigation following a complaint by CoreX Holding, an industrial group and competitor in the region.
The EC said in November that the acquisition could give MMG the ability to divert ferronickel supplies away from Europe, potentially weakening the competitiveness of the region’s stainless steel producers.
Anglo has argued the transaction should be approved without conditions, pointing to an expansion in ferronickel supply from several producers and the ability of European customers to switch suppliers.
The company also said EU measures limiting Chinese steel imports mean Chinese stainless steel cannot simply be redirected into the bloc and therefore should not be considered a competitive threat.
Regulatory test
The case puts the transaction at the intersection of competition policy and Europe’s push to secure critical mineral supply chains as governments increasingly scrutinize Chinese involvement in strategic resources.
A formal statement of objections would not itself block the acquisition, but would require MMG to answer the Commission’s competition concerns as the regulator weighs whether the deal can proceed.
https://www.canadianminingjournal.com/news/mmg-faces-eu-antitrust-warning-over-anglo-nickel-deal/
Ivanhoe Mines IVN-T is accelerating work on its giant Makoko copper discovery in Democratic Republic of Congo after increasing the resource by 30 per cent, bolstering plans for what the company says is the world’s largest and highest-grade copper discovery of the past decade.
The update was issued on Tuesday as rising copper prices and a dwindling pipeline of major discoveries sharpen concerns over future supply.
Congo, already the world’s second-largest copper producer, is becoming increasingly central to that outlook.
Ivanhoe, alongside China’s Zijin and the Congolese government, jointly owns the Kamoa-Kakula copper complex, one of Congo’s top producers.
The Canadian miner said the Makoko District in its Western Forelands project now has 42 million metric tons of indicated resources grading 2.66-per-cent copper and 612 million tons of inferred resources grading 1.8-per-cent copper, containing about 12 million tons of copper.
The company said the Western Forelands discoveries rank as the world’s largest and highest-grade copper finds of the past decade.
Ivanhoe plans to begin a scoping study for Makoko in the first quarter of 2027 and is preparing to expand drilling further to support rapid project development.
The company said project development is expected to include a series of shallow open pits alongside underground mining, a combination it believes could lower capital costs and shorten the timeline to first production.
Ivanhoe said development of Makoko could benefit from lessons learned during the rapid build-out of Kamoa-Kakula, which advanced from discovery to first production in less than six years.
The company has already started site preparation activities, including fencing, road construction and environmental baseline work.
Ivanhoe’s founder Robert Friedland said the discovery continued to grow and remained open in multiple directions, with about 60,000 metres of drilling completed in 2026 not yet incorporated into the latest resource estimate.
Highlights
Antofagasta (LSE:ANTO) Basic Materials Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) 3491.00 GBX -97.000 ↓ 2.704% , the Chilean copper producer listed in London, has been among the most direct beneficiaries of a firmer copper market, with commodity analysts revising sector earnings expectations higher as the metal held near the upper end of its recent trading range.
Unlike its diversified peers, the group offers something close to unfiltered exposure to a single metal, which means its share price tends to move with copper sentiment more tightly than almost any other large London mining name.
Why copper has been so well bid
The demand narrative has broadened well beyond Chinese construction. Grid upgrades, renewable generation, electrified transport and data centre buildouts all consume copper in quantities that were not in older demand models.
Supply, meanwhile, has struggled. Grades are declining at mature mines, permitting timelines have lengthened, water and power constraints bite in arid mining districts, and greenfield discoveries of scale have become rare.
Water, power and the Chilean constraint
Operating in one of the driest regions on earth has forced the group to invest heavily in desalination and seawater pipelines, moving away from reliance on scarce continental water. That investment is expensive but removes an existential operating risk Metals and Mining Stocks
Power has followed a similar path, with long-term renewable supply contracts replacing fossil generation. Both shifts raise upfront capital intensity while lowering the volatility of long-run operating costs.
Growth from what it already owns
The expansion story is largely brownfield. Concentrator capacity increases and processing upgrades at existing operations offer volume growth without the permitting risk attached to entirely new districts.
That approach fits the group's historically conservative balance sheet. It has generally preferred to fund growth from cash flow rather than through large acquisitions, which has kept leverage low through the cycle.
The sensitivities to keep in view
Ore grade is the perennial variable. Even well-run operations see head grades drift, and sustaining volume requires steadily more material through the plant, which pushes unit costs higher over time.
Chilean fiscal and royalty policy, community and water agreements, and treatment and refining charges negotiated with smelters all shape realised margins independently of the headline metal price.
In August this year, China increased its steel exports by 0.3% compared with the previous month, to 10.15 million tonnes. This was reported by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA).
Compared with the same period in 2025, the figure rose by 6.8%. The average price of these exports in August was 722.2 per tonne, which was 0.9% higher than in the previous month.
Between January and August, Chinese steelmakers exported 75.15 million tonnes of steel products, down 3% year-on-year.
Steel imports into China in August totalled 434,000 tonnes (-2.5% month-on-month and -13.2% year-on-year). Over the first eight months, the figure stood at 3.57 million tonnes (-10.5% year-on-year).
Meanwhile, in August, China imported 108.54 million tonnes of iron ore, which was 0.4% more than the previous month and 3.1% more year-on-year. The average price of these imports was $95.5 per tonne, which was 5.1% lower than in July.
In January–August this year, ore imports into the PRC totalled 845.27 million tonnes (+5.5% year-on-year).
It should be noted that, by the end of 2025, China increased its steel exports by 7.5% year-on-year — to a record 119.02 million tonnes. Overseas shipments helped the country offset the slowdown in domestic demand. Steel imports into China last year totalled 6.06 million tonnes, down 11.1% year-on-year. Ore imports into the country in 2025 rose by 1.8% year-on-year, to 1.26 billion tonnes.
As reported by GMK Center, CISA has called on Chinese steelmakers to strengthen their raw material supply chains, given the sector’s significant reliance on imported resources.
https://gmk.center/en/news/china-increased-steel-exports-by-0-3-m-m-in-august/amp/
ArcelorMittal Raises HRC Prices by EUR20/t for November 2026
ArcelorMittal, a major global steel producer, has announced a price increase of EUR20 per tonne for hot-rolled coil in Europe, effective for November 2026 deliveries, as reported by BigMint. The move responds to higher production costs driven by rising raw material and energy prices, alongside consistently full order books at European steelworks and reduced import competition.
Cost pressures stem from increases in coal, natural gas, and electricity prices, as well as higher expenses for CO2 emission allowances. Ongoing instability in the Middle East adds further uncertainty to energy and sea freight costs. Meanwhile, expected changes to the EU's trade defence measures are likely to reduce the volume of duty-free steel imports, limiting supply from abroad.
These conditions create room for European steelmakers to raise prices. ArcelorMittal and other regional producers maintain healthy order books for hot-rolled, cold-rolled, and hot-dip galvanised steel, reducing the need for significant discounts to attract buyers.
Following the latest adjustment, ArcelorMittal's offer price for hot-rolled steel in Southern Europe has risen to around EUR790 per tonne on a free-at-delivery basis, up from the previous EUR770 per tonne. The price changes reflect manufacturers' efforts to offset rising costs amid limited imports and stable domestic demand.
According to GMK Center, at the end of August ArcelorMittal had already raised prices for long products, including bar steel, reinforcing bars, and wire rod, by an additional EUR20 per tonne. That increase followed a EUR25 per tonne rise in July, bringing the total increase for those products to EUR45 per tonne.
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/arcelormittal-raises-hrc-prices-by-eur20t-for-november-2026/
At the same time, the key importer – China – showed subdued demand
Global iron ore shipments remained relatively stable in August 2026. Despite subdued demand from the key importer, China, the leading producing countries showed predominantly positive or neutral trends, with the exception of South Africa. This is reported by BigMint.
The general caution in market sentiment was driven by several key factors: restrictions on the use of low-grade ore in the PRC, scheduled maintenance work at Chinese steelworks, and a significant rise in the price of raw materials such as coking coal.
The rise in coke costs has significantly reduced steelmakers’ profit margins, forcing iron ore exporters to adopt a more cautious approach and abandon aggressive sales growth on the spot market.
August figures by country:
In the short term, export volumes from Australia may be held back by localised strikes by workers at the key port of Hedland. In India, sales are expected to pick up following the end of the monsoon season, although stricter safety regulations on the east coast may slow down the pace of ship loading. High-grade Brazilian ore stands a good chance of increasing its market share, as steelworks seek to optimise costs amid high coal prices. Exports from South Africa are likely to remain subdued due to ongoing logistical barriers
As reported by GMK Center, the Brazilian mining company Vale produced 84.3 million tonnes of iron ore in the second quarter of 2026 (including 76 million tonnes from its own operations), which is 0.8% (0.7 million tonnes) more than in the same period last year.
https://gmk.center/en/news/global-iron-ore-exports-remained-stable-in-august/
Australia's Stanmore Resources Ltd. has entered into an agreement with South Africa's Exxaro Resources Ltd. to acquire ownership of the Moranbah South coal sites for $105 million. This is reported in a Stanmore press release.
Stanmore will finance the transaction using available cash and liquidity. The transaction does not require shareholder approval. The transaction is expected to close at the end of the fourth quarter of 2026, subject to the usual closing conditions, including regulatory approval.
The deal remains conditional until Exxaro completes its acquisition of a 50% stake in the joint venture from Anglo American, subject to pre-emptive rights as part of the sale of Anglo American's Australian coal assets to Dhilmar QLD Pty Ltd.
The Moranbah South deposits contain 724 million tons of coal used in steel production and two mining licenses near the Eagle Downs and Isaac Plains Complex projects in Queensland. The deal complements Stanmore's portfolio of coal projects, which also includes the South Walker Creek, Poitrel and Lancewood mines.
Stanmore Resources Limited is an Australian steel coal mining and development company with headquarters in Brisbane, Australia.
Exxaro Resources Limited is a South African mining company that produces coal, iron ore and renewable energy. The headquarters is located in Centurion (South Africa).
https://www.akm.ru/eng/news/australia-s-stanmore-acquires-moranbah-south-coal-project-/
09 September 2026
Halina Yermolenko
The average price of HRC in the US at the start of September stood at $1,205 per short tonne
The American steel producer Nucor has once again raised its spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coils by $5 per short tonne compared with the previous week. This is stated in a letter from the company to its customers dated 8 September
The new offer price stands at $1,190 per metric tonne. The CSP for the California Steel Industries (CSI) joint venture has also risen by $5 per short tonne to $1,250 per metric tonne.
Nucor has been raising the price of hot-rolled coils for several weeks running; in August, the increase was $5–10/t.
According to the steel manufacturer, delivery times remain unchanged – between three and five weeks.
According to Steel Market Update, the average price of hot-rolled coils in the United States stood at $1,205 per short tonne as at 1 September.
Overall, at the start of September, the US domestic flat steel market is facing limited availability of both spot materials and contract-based products – buyers continue to report these difficulties.
SMU notes that several market participants expect imports to rise in the coming months, as the price gap between US and foreign offers is at a historically high level, which is attracting buyers. However, this is unlikely to lead to a fall in domestic rolled steel prices.
It should be noted that ArcelorMittal has raised prices for hot-rolled coil (HRC) in Europe by €20/t ($23/t) for deliveries in November 2026. This is due to rising costs of raw materials and energy.
https://gmk.center/en/news/nucor-has-raised-the-price-of-hot-rolled-coils-to-1-190-per-tonne/