Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Tuesday 07 October 2025
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Barrick to sell Tongon mine in up to $305 million deal

Barrick Mining ABX said on Monday it will sell its interests in the Tongon gold mine and certain assets in Ivory Coast to Atlantic Group for up to $305 million as the Candian miner looks to strengthen its balance sheet.

Shares of Barrick rose 3% in morning trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

The deal with Abidjan-based Atlantic is part of Barrick's plan to monetize non-core assets in markets with rising operational costs, a strategy it has undertaken since its 2019 merger with Africa-focused Randgold Resources.

The company has instead been pivoting towards high-margin, long-life assets, with a growing focus on copper and strategic operations in Africa and the Middle East.

The deal comes as gold prices hover around $3,900 an ounce, supported by safe haven flows from broader economic uncertainty, as well as prospects of further Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Tongon, which began production in 2010, has had its life extended beyond the originally scheduled 2020 closure through Barrick's successful exploration, the company said.

The deal includes a cash payment of $192 million, which covers a $23 million shareholder loan repayment to be made within six months of closing, with the proceeds helping Barrick strengthen its balance sheet, the company said.

The transaction is expected to be completed in late 2025.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L3N3VN0RF:0-barrick-mining-sells-its-interests-to-atlantic-group-for-up-to-305-million/

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Oil

Trump's 'Drill Baby Drill' Drumbeat Bites The Dust In ETF Land - Chevron (NYSE:CVX), Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (ARCA:ENFR)

When President Donald Trump began his second term with the battle cry “drill, baby, drill,” he vowed a new era of American energy supremacy, promising cheaper prices, more rigs, and more jobs. But nine months in, the boom is looking more like a bust.

Production of oil and gas has declined for two consecutive quarters, the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported. Brent crude futures have dropped over 15% year-to-date, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is down almost 17%. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) anticipates Brent oil averaging a mere $50 a barrel in early 2026, with global inventories increasing by more than 2 million barrels per day over the coming months.

That slide deflated energy ETFs that previously rode high on Trump rhetoric. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLE) — the home of such companies as Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) — has underperformed this year, lagging the S&P 500.

Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF (NYSE:VDE) and iShares U.S. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (BATS:IEO), which have more exposure to upstream producers, have declined sharply as the rig counts drop and capital expenditure plans are halted. The funds have lost 3% and 5% in the past year, respectively.

In fact, demand appears tenuous. Gasoline consumption in the U.S. will barely climb at all in 2026, while solar energy is taking a record portion of new electricity demand, according to EIA. Abroad, consumption has weakened in Europe, China and Latin America, all long-time sources of growth for oil. At the same time, the OPEC agreement to increase output by 137,000 barrels per day until November puts more pressure on the market, eroding the market share of American producers.

For ETF investors, that translates into a rethink. As pure-play oil and gas funds falter, midstream ETFs like the ALPS Alerian Energy Infrastructure ETF (NYSE:ENFR), which generate returns on pipeline volumes rather than oil prices, may offer more stable income potential.

Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which increases federal leasing and reduces royalty rates, may soothe some expenses, but here, too, hope is thin on the ground; only 6% of oil chief executives polled by the Dallas Fed said it would make a significant impact, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

In brief, the White House’s energy revolution is running into a crude reality check. For the time being, investors taking a bet on a “drill, baby, drill” renaissance might discover that the only thing gushing is oversupply.


https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/10/48048063/trumps-drill-baby-drill-drumbeat-bites-the-dust-in-etf-land

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Oil and Gas

Top 10 most valuable global energy brands in 2025: see which Indian firm ranks 10th strongest

Top 10 most valuable global energy brands in 2025: Find out which Indian oil and gas brands are featured in the list.

Top 10 most valuable global energy brands in 2025: Even as the global oil and gas industry continues to navigate a complex mix of challenges driven by geopolitical and economic uncertainty, the world’s 100 leading energy brands enjoy a total brand value of $688.6 billion as of 2025, BrandFinance Energy 100-2025 reported.

For the sixth consecutive year, Shell, a UK-based company, has maintained its position as the most valuable oil and gas company in the world, with a brand value of US$45.4 billion, as per the report released in August.

It also climbed 15 spots to become the strongest oil and gas brand globally in 2025, achieving a Brand Strength Index (BSI) score of 87.5/100 and an AAA brand strength rating.

Two West Asian (Middle East) brands also featured on the list: Saudi-based Aramco, valued at US$41.7 billion, has been ranked No.2 for the sixth consecutive year, while the UAE’s ADNOC, witnessing an increase in value up 25 per cent to US$19 billion, rose to rank No.6 globally, overtaking BP and TotalEnergies.

Chinese brands PetroChina and Sinopec Group also retained their positions among the top global brands in the rankings.

Experiencing a significant increase of 21 per cent in brand value to US$23.6 billion, US-based ExxonMobil climbed from the No.11 spot in 2024 to secure a position among the top five global oil and gas brands in 2025.

The American company has also climbed 17 ranks to secure the second position among the strongest oil & gas brands, with a BSI score of 85/100 and an AAA brand strength rating.

Where do Indian brands stand?

Indian Oil stands at No.21 among the most valuable brands; however, it is ranked at No.10 among the strongest oil and gas brands in 2025 with a BSI score of 79.3.

As India contributes 3.5 per cent of the total global brand value of oil and gas companies, it is noteworthy to mention that Reliance also features at No.30, Hindustan Petroleum at No.42 and Bharat Petroleum at No.43 in the list of the most valuable energy brands in the world in 2025.


https://indianexpress.com/article/trending/top-10-listing/top-10-most-valuable-global-energy-brands-2025-10290268/

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Hungary Eyes Turkmen Gas to Diversify Energy Imports

Hungary, one of Gazprom’s largest remaining clients within the European Union, is exploring the prospect of importing natural gas from Turkmenistan, The Moscow Times reported.

During a recent visit to Ashgabat, Hungary’s Deputy State Secretary for Eastern Relations Development, Ádám Stifter, described Turkmenistan as a promising partner in the energy sector. “Hungary depends on gas imports from different countries, and we view Turkmenistan with great hope. We expect Turkmenistan to become a supplier of gas to Europe, and particularly to Hungary, in the near future,” Stifter said, as quoted by Interfax.

The announcement aligns with Budapest’s broader efforts to diversify its energy supply. On Thursday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó confirmed that Hungary had signed its longest-ever liquefied natural gas (LNG) agreement, a 10-year deal with French company Engie. Starting in 2028, the contract will provide Hungary with 4 billion cubic meters of LNG, with deliveries continuing through 2038.

Earlier in September, Hungary also signed a contract with Shell to purchase 2 billion cubic meters of gas annually for ten years, beginning in 2026. That gas will be delivered via the Czech Republic and Germany.

Analysts view Hungary’s interest in Turkmen gas as a notable policy shift. Natalia Milchakova, a senior analyst at Freedom Finance Global, said the move signals a desire to reduce dependence on Russian energy. “Hungary and Slovakia have long relied on Russian oil and gas, but the change in tone from Budapest suggests a drive to diversify supply routes,” she noted.

However, the logistics remain complex. Milchakova pointed out that Turkmen gas would likely have to transit through Azerbaijan or Iran, routes complicated by infrastructure limitations and geopolitical challenges, or possibly via the TurkStream pipeline, which is operated in partnership with Gazprom.

Hungary currently imports about 4.5 billion cubic meters of Russian gas annually under a long-term contract valid until 2036. According to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) in Finland, Hungary spent approximately €500 million on energy imports from Russia in July 2025 alone, €285 million on gas and €200 million on oil.

Turkmenistan holds the world’s fourth-largest proven natural gas reserves. However, 80-90% of its gas exports are sent eastward to China via the Central Asia-China pipeline, highlighting the country’s long-standing reliance on a single buyer. Strengthening ties with Hungary could signal Ashgabat’s intent to diversify its export geography.


https://timesca.com/hungary-eyes-turkmen-gas-to-diversify-energy-imports/

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Why Oil Prices Look Strong on Paper but Soft in Reality

By Neil Crosby - Oct 06, 2025, 3:00 PM CDT

  • Oil markets are split between paper and physical realities.
  • Futures remain backwardated and strong on paper, while physical crude grades show clear signs of weakness.
  • Refining capacity, not crude supply, is the key bottleneck.

Oil markets are struggling to reconcile geopolitics with fundamentals as headlines push prices one way while physical signals pull in the other direction. The result is a market where Brent spreads and gasoil cracks appear strong on paper, even as North Sea grades compete for premiums and US crude arrives at a discount in Europe.

Markets are operating on a split screen, with futures signalling at least some tightness still, while the physical market has been weakening markedly. The paper structure has solidified, still in backwardation.  Traders added a security cushion in some instances after sustained strikes on Russian refineries and export infrastructure. Gasoil and naphtha cracks, as well as East–West differentials have stretched to levels reminiscent of the immediate post-invasion period. Meanwhile, FOB premiums for light sweet grades in the North Sea are not strong on average. The Forties have been struggling to clear at a premium to Dated, and WTI is again landing in Northwest Europe at attractive economics. One side of the market is pricing disruption; the other is signalling surplus.

Evidence of robust summer runs adds to the confusion. Saudi crude processing increased sharply year on year, channelling significant incremental barrels into gasoil exports. Brazil posted a decade-high throughput in August. OECD Asia utilisations edged higher, and India’s large sites remained busy. Even with that momentum, margins did not collapse, which suggests the ceiling on operable capacity is closer than it looks. When everything goes right, the system holds together; when a single cog slips, the strain becomes visible.

Refining flexibility, not crude availability, is the pinch point. Global conversion units are already working near practical limits, and reliability is uneven. The recurring issues at Dangote’s RFCC underline how thin that cushion can be. With winter approaching and diesel stocks still lean versus longer-term seasonal norms, the system has little room to absorb fresh shocks. When geopolitical risk collides with tight conversion capacity, product cracks do not need a demand surge to lift; they only need another outage.

Paper vs physical will not diverge forever

The present disconnect cannot persist indefinitely. North Sea physical weakness sits uneasily beside backwardated Brent spreads. Freight has clearly amplified paper moves, VLCC strength and shifting arbitrages have distorted regional clearing prices, and the dated vs futures plumbing can magnify stress in short bursts. Over time, either physical premiums should rebuild as risk materialises in prompt barrels, or paper structure should cool if the feared losses fail to curtail flows. Positioning around that reconciliation demands humility and disciplined risk limits. Meanwhile, global crude exports are averaging at multi-year highs and oil is building up on water. The market sees this and knows we are headed into a better-supplied period in Q4. The question is of timing and how to manage geopolitical risk in the paper market. 

What to watch next

Three markers will frame the next leg. First, the durability of Russian product exports after repeated refinery hits will determine whether today’s risk premia harden into shortages. Second, the pace and stability of refinery restarts through global turnarounds will signal whether conversion capacity can keep up with winter demand. Third, the behaviour of WTI–Brent and North Sea FOB premiums will reveal whether physical barrels validate paper strength or force a rethink.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Oil-Prices-Look-Strong-on-Paper-but-Soft-in-Reality.html

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Alternative Energy

German renewable power capacity to reach 509.9 GW in 2035

Germany is accelerating its clean energy transition with ambitious targets for renewables, hydrogen, and LNG diversification, underpinned by robust federal policies.

The country has officially phased out nuclear power as of 2023 and is committed to phasing out coal-fired generation by 2038, with discussions underway to advance the deadline to 2030. Against this backdrop, Germany’s cumulative renewable power capacity is forecast to reach 509.9 GW in 2035, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.7% during 2024 – 35, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s report, ‘Germany Power Market Trends and Analysis by Capacity, Generation, Transmission, Distribution, Regulations, Key Players and Forecast to 2035,’ reveals that in 2024, renewables accounted for 54.7% of Germany’s electricity generation, led by wind and solar photovoltaics (PV). By 2035, renewable generation is expected to reach 628 TWh, accounting for 82.9% of the power mix, driven by large scale solar PV expansion and onshore and offshore wind development.

Mohammed Ziauddin, Power Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “Germany is targeting 80% renewable generation by 2030, supported by its Renewable Energy Act (EEG), National Hydrogen Strategy, and significant investment in grid modernisation. The country targets 30 GW of offshore wind capacity by 2030. Complementary policies such as the Power Plant Security Act and H2Global are creating certainty for renewable investors and hydrogen developers.”

Germany’s energy transition is also being shaped by geopolitical dynamics. The Russia – Ukraine war accelerated the end of Russian gas imports, leading to rapid expansion of LNG import capacity and diversification of suppliers, including Norway, the Netherlands, Belgium, and the US. At the same time, Germany is forging hydrogen partnerships with countries such as Canada, Norway, and Namibia to secure future energy supplies.

Challenges remain in terms of grid congestion, Dunkelflaute (periods of low renewable output), and slow rollout of dispatchable gas-fired capacity to back up intermittent renewables. Rising energy prices, regulatory uncertainties, and lengthy permitting processes for wind projects also constrain deployment. However, large scale investments in hydrogen infrastructure, battery energy storage, and smart grids are expected to strengthen long-term system resilience.

Mohammed Ziauddin concluded: “Germany’s pathway to 80% renewables by 2030 and a fully decarbonised power sector by 2045 is ambitious but achievable. With solar, wind, and hydrogen leading the transformation, complemented by grid modernisation and storage investments, Germany is positioned to remain at the forefront of Europe’s energy transition despite geopolitical and structural challenges.”


https://www.energyglobal.com/solar/06102025/german-renewable-power-capacity-to-reach-5099-gw-in-2035-forecast-globaldata/

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Crypto

Wall Street analyst sees Bitcoin hitting new highs despite U.S. shutdown

October indeed proved to be "Uptober" for the crypto market as Bitcoin hit a new all-time high (ATH) of $125,559.21 on Oct. 5, up 100% in a year.

Launched in 2009, Bitcoin is the world's first decentralized cryptocurrency. Once dismissed as a scam, its market capitalization now lags behind only those of the world's largest companies like Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA), Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), Alphabet (Nasdaq: GOOG), and Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN).

Bitcoin has hit a new record high amidst the U.S. government shutting down after both parties failed to reach an agreement.

Now, a leading Wall Street analyst has made a bullish Bitcoin price prediction.

Standard Chartered head of digital asset research Geoffrey Kendrick said in a note published on Oct. 3 that BTC will quickly jump to $135,000.

“I think it is now ready and that BTC will print a fresh all-time high next week and likely hit my forecast for Q3 of $135,000 soon thereafter.”

U.S. government shutdown to drive Bitcoin rally

As per the note, the government shutdown in the U.S. is playing a larger role in crypto markets this time than in previous bullish cycles.

Now, Bitcoin has been associated with the risks from government shutdown, indicated by the U.S. Treasury term premiums, Kendrick's note added.

This photo shows a general view of the logo of Standard Chartered bank on its office building in Singapore on August 7, 2025.

This photo shows a general view of the logo of Standard Chartered bank on its office building in Singapore on August 7, 2025.

It indicates that the market skepticism around the shutdown is behind the bullish Bitcoin chart this time.

Kendrick predicted that Bitcoin will continue to soar during the shutdown period. He added that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are poised to pull in an additional $20 billion by the end of the year so that the king coin will hit a new price target of $200,000.

This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Oct 6, 2025, where it first appeared in the Investing section. 


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-analyst-sees-bitcoin-163906260.html

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Precious Metals

Hong Kong stocks slip ahead of holiday; miners track metals higher

Hong Kong stocks slipped on Monday with some investors locking in gains from the market's recent rally while others preferred to stay on the sidelines ahead of the one-day local Mid-Autumn Festival holiday on Tuesday.

** At the close, the Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index HSI was down 0.67%, the second session of decline.

** Shares of the Hang Seng Automobile Index HHSAMI led the decline, slipping 1.13%, with Li Auto 2015 falling 3.3%, Xpeng easing 1.8%, and Leapmotor declining 0.6%.

** Shares of key tech players HHSTECH fell 1.1%.

** Hong Kong-listed gold miners rose after the precious metal climbed to a record high with Shandong Gold Mining's Hong Kong shares up as much as 7.2% to HK$40.4, their highest level since their debut in September 2018. They ended the day 5.3% higher.

** Stock of Zijin Gold, which debuted on September 30 in Hong Kong, soared as much as 9.5% to a fresh high of HK$148.9 and ended 8.2% higher; Zhaojin Mining rose 3.8% and Zijin Mining climbed 2.5%.

** Gold surged past the $3,900-an-ounce level, driven by safe-haven demand following a fall in the yen and a U.S. government shutdown, among others.

** Copper prices rose on Monday to the highest level in more than 16 months, due to concerns about supply from top producer Chile and major supplier Indonesia, sending MMG and Jiangxi Copper up 0.3% and 1.2% respectively.

** Mainland China markets are closed from October 1 to 8 for the Golden Week holiday.

** The benchmark Hang Seng Index HSI hit 27,381.84 points on October 2, its highest since July 2021. It ended last week up 3.9%, its biggest weekly gain since early March.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2025:newsml_L2N3VN037:0-hong-kong-stocks-slip-ahead-of-holiday-miners-track-metals-higher/

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Silver Catch Up Trade Update

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Base Metals

Copper price retreats despite Grasberg supply worries

copper price

Worker at furnace during melting copper. (Stock Image)

Copper prices fell on Monday, giving back part of last week’s strong gains even as supply concerns persist following deadly disruptions at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) slipped 0.7% to $10,639.50 per tonne by mid-afternoon trading, erasing earlier advances. The decline followed copper’s biggest weekly gain in a year. On the CME, three-month futures traded at $11,115 per tonne ($5.0525 per pound), down 1% for the day.

https://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-2-300x216.png 300w, https://www.mining.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/image-2-768x554.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 907px) 100vw, 907px">

A stronger US dollar weighed on prices. The greenback advanced after France’s prime minister announced his resignation and Japan appeared set to appoint a pro-stimulus leader. A firmer dollar typically pressures commodities priced in the currency, making them more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Grasberg tragedy deepens supply risks

The copper market remains on edge over tighter supply amid disruptions at major operations. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper and gold mine last month after mud flooded underground tunnels, forcing production cuts.

On Sunday, the company confirmed that all seven workers missing after the incident have been found dead, following the discovery of five additional bodies. Grasberg, located in Papua, is the world’s second-largest copper mine and a key global supply source.

Macro focus shifts to US data and Fed policy

Investors will turn their attention later this week to US economic data, including jobless claims and inflation expectations, though releases may be delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Comments from Federal Reserve officials also influenced sentiment. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Friday that the central bank remains further from its inflation target than from maximum employment, signaling caution on rate cuts.

Analysts expect that an eventual easing cycle could support copper and other commodities by weakening the dollar. However, Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina warned that aggressive monetary easing could fuel an inflationary spike in commodity prices that risks damaging economic growth.

“A Fed rate cut cycle, despite the economy being relatively strong, should be bullish for commodity prices,” LaFemina wrote in a note. “Still, there’s a risk of an inflationary commodity price spike that damages the economy.”

(With files from Bloomberg)


https://www.mining.com/copper-price-retreats-despite-grasberg-supply-worries/

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US Government in talks to buy stake in Critical Metals

The news comes shortly after Critical Metals increased its ownership in the Tanbreez project from 42% to 92.5%.


The potential deal would provide Washington with a direct interest in the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland. Credit: BJP7images/Shutterstock.com.

The US Government is reportedly in talks to acquire a stake in Critical Metals Corporation as part of an initiative to enhance its control over critical minerals.

This potential deal would provide Washington with a direct interest in the Tanbreez project in southern Greenland, reported Reuters, citing sources.

The news comes after Critical Metals announced last month an amended agreement with Rimbal to increase its ownership in the Tanbreez project from 42% to 92.5%

As per this amended agreement, Critical Metals can increase its ownership stake in the project upon the issuance of around 14.5 million ordinary shares to Rimbal.

The original agreement stipulated that the consideration for this increase in ownership was an unspecified number of shares of Critical Metals carrying a value of $116m defined at the time of the increase.

The latest agreement amends the original to specify a fixed issuance of 14.5 million ordinary shares to Rimbal at closing, implying a price of $8 per Critical Metals ordinary share.

The transaction is pending approval from the Greenland Government.

European Lithium will retain its 7.5% minority stake in the Tanbreez project.

The US Government’s interest in this deal aligns with recent efforts to secure stakes in companies considered key suppliers of critical minerals for the US market, reported Reuters.

The present government shutdown in the US is not expected to affect the negotiations as key personnel involved are classified as essential workers.

The Tanbreez project is a permitted asset in southern Greenland near the town of Qaqortoq.

Meanwhile, Critical Metals has today announced the signing of a securities purchase agreement with an institutional investor to raise $35m through a private investment in public equity transaction.

The company intends to use the funds to support the development of the 4.7-billion-tonne rare earth deposit at Tanbreez.

Critical Metals CEO and executive chairman Tony Sage said: “This financing from a fundamental institutional investor further validates the opportunities ahead for Tanbreez and Critical Metals Corp and underscores the growing need for heavy rare earths in the West.

“We look forward to welcoming this new institutional investor as we advance our commercialisation road map for Tanbreez and bring this game-changing rare earth asset closer to production.”


https://www.mining-technology.com/news/us-to-buy-stake-in-critical-metals/?cf-view

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Steel, Iron Ore and Coal

Anglo American begins arbitration proceedings against Peabody-report


Anglo American reportedly returned $29m of the $75m deposit to Peabody. Credit: Piotr Swat/Shutterstock.com.

Anglo American has reportedly commenced arbitration proceedings against Peabody Energy following the cancellation of a purchase agreement for the former’s steelmaking coal assets.

According to a Reuters report, Peabody retracted its offer of almost $3.8bn for Anglo American’s Australian coking coal assets in August.

This decision came after the two companies could not reach an agreement on reducing the price following a fire at the Moranbah North mine in Queensland.

Peabody had initially agreed to acquire the mines in Queensland’s Bowen Basin, considered to be a leading steelmaking coal region.

This move was part of Anglo’s strategy to sell or spin off non-core assets after a failed takeover attempt by iron ore company BHP last year.

In April, operations at the Moranbah North mine were suspended following an underground fire triggered by elevated gas levels.

This led Peabody to activate a clause that permitted it to either withdraw from the agreement or renegotiate the terms if a significant adverse event transpired between the signing and the completion of the deal.

Anglo American returned $29m of the $75m deposit to Peabody, with the US-based coal miner demanding the remaining amount “without further delay”.

Last month, Anglo American, through its 50.1% owned subsidiary, Anglo American Sur, signed a definitive agreement with Codelco.

This agreement is aimed at executing a joint mine plan for their neighbouring copper operations, Los Bronces and Andina, in Chile.


https://www.mining-technology.com/news/anglo-american-begins-arbitration-proceedings-peabody-report/

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