Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Thursday 25 June 2026
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Commodity Intelligence: The Normalisation Trade Risk

Crude oil inventories in the United States decreased by 6.1 million barrels during the week ending June 19, according to new data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 412.1 million barrels, according to government data, which is now 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

The EIA’s data release follows API’s figures that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories saw a draw of 765,000 barrels in the period.

Crude prices were down in mid-morning trading. At 10:16 a.m. in New York, Brent futures were trading at $73.40 per barrel—down $3.72 (-4.83%) on the day and down nearly $7 per barrel from this same time last week. WTI was also trading down on the day, by $3.40 per barrel (-4.62%) on Wednesday morning at $70.27.

For total motor gasoline, the EIA reported that inventories had increased by 2.1 million barrels, compared to the week prior’s 900,000 barrel dip. The most recent figures showed that average daily gasoline production decreased to 9.5 million barrels. For middle distillates, inventories increased by 3.1 million barrels with production increasing to an average of 5.2 million barrels daily. Distillate inventories are now 10% below the five-year average.

Total products supplied—a proxy for U.S. oil demand—averaged 20.5 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 2.1% compared to the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 8.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, while the distillate four-week average supplied averaged 3.6 million barrels—up 3.2% percent year over year.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Crude-Inventories-Post-Another-Major-Draw.html

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Macro

Kazakh Company Eyes Investment In Afghanistan’s Mining Sector


Kazba News Agency reported on Tuesday that Kazakhstan’s Eurasian Resources Group is considering either the direct purchase of a chromium mine or the creation of a joint venture with Afghan partners.

According to the report, during talks between Kazakh Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin and the Taliban administration’s Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the import of industrial-grade aquamarine stone to Kazakhstan for processing was discussed.

The report added that plans were also made to sign a memorandum of understanding for the export of 30,000 tons of zinc ore from Afghanistan to Kazakhstan for processing, in a deal valued at $18.8 million.

The Taliban’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce previously announced that 25 cooperation agreements were signed between Afghan and Kazakh private-sector representatives during the Afghan Kazakh Business Forum in Kabul.

The agreements were signed during the visit of Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister to Kabul and are aimed at expanding trade and facilitating imports and exports between the private sectors of the two countries.

Leading a high-level delegation, Zhumangarin visited Kabul on June 21 and held separate meetings with senior Taliban officials, including Prime Minister Mohammad Hassan Akhund, Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani and Industry and Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi.

Although Kazakhstan, like most countries except Russia, has not formally recognised the Taliban administration, political and economic ties between the two sides have expanded significantly over the past five years. Senior officials from both sides have made repeated visits to Kabul and Astana.

Yerkin Tukumov, Kazakhstan’s special representative for Afghanistan, has said that removing the Taliban from Kazakhstan’s list of terrorist organisations does not amount to recognising the Taliban administration. He stressed that Kazakhstan’s policy remains one of engagement without formal recognition and described Afghanistan’s situation as still highly complex.

Referring to Afghanistan’s economic and social challenges, Tukumov said decades of experience have shown that any economic, humanitarian or institutional vacuum in the country is inevitably filled by destructive forces.


https://www.afintl.com/en/202606247072

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Trump Says He’s Ordered Investigation into Oil Companies Over Alleged Price Gouging

Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he had instructed the US Department of Justice to investigate oil companies for alleged price gouging, accusing them of not lowering gas prices enough amid conflict in the Middle East.

“The big oil companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for oil. Those prices are dropping like a rock! In other words, customers are being ‘gouged.’ I have instructed the DOJ to immediately start looking into this,” Trump wrote in a social media post late on Tuesday night. “Gasoline prices better start going down a lot faster than what I’m seeing!”

Since the late-night post, no further details on the investigation have been released.

Oil prices have softened in recent weeks as the US and Iran work through peace talks. The two countries reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement last week. After the deal, the strait of Hormuz, where a fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments pass through, reopened, though traffic through the strait remains much lower compared with pre-conflict passthrough.

In turn, gas prices around the world have fallen. Brent crude, the global benchmark, has fallen below $75 for the first time since the start of the war. US gas prices at the pump have fallen from a peak of $4.56 per gallon in May to a current average of $3.92. While a relief for drivers, average gas prices a year ago were still $0.70 a gallon cheaper, at $3.22 a gallon.

Record-high gas prices have soured many Americans, especially those who voted for Trump with hopes that he would put an end to inflation. Price increases reached a generational high in 2022 under Joe Biden’s presidency, peaking at 9.1%.

During a rally in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, Trump tried to reassure voters that relief was coming.

“That oil is going to come charging down, and with oil comes everything else,” Trump said.

The drop in prices may be slow. Experts are skeptical that gas prices can fully go back to prewar prices for the rest of the year because of halts to oil production and refining facilities that have reduced capacity during the Iran conflict.

US inflation in May hit a three-year peak at 4.2%, largely because of elevated gas prices. Core inflation, which doesn’t include the food and energy prices, was 2.9% – still slightly elevated compared to previous months.

Though Trump has been adamant that the US Federal Reserve lower interest rates, officials at the central bank released projections that include one interest rate hike this year amid higher inflation.


https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jun/24/trump-doj-investigation-oil-company-price-gouging

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Oil and Gas

Gulf Oil Tanker Rates Nearly Double as Exports Rise

News image

The Kabul Tribune (KT) — Oil tanker rates in the Gulf region have nearly doubled this week as Middle Eastern producers ramp up exports and demand for shipping capacity surges, Reuters reported.

Shipping data and industry sources show that hire costs for tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the wider Gulf have spiked sharply as traffic gradually resumes following recent disruptions.

Traffic through the strategic waterway has remained below normal levels since Iran lifted its effective blockade last week after agreeing to a 60-day ceasefire with the United States. Before the conflict began on Feb. 28, about 125 vessels passed through the strait daily, but current volumes remain significantly lower.

Market estimates indicate that up to 100 tankers are still stranded in the Gulf with cargo onboard, contributing to a shortage of available vessels as crude exporters increase shipments.

Daily charter rates for tankers outside the Strait of Hormuz have jumped to about $190,500, up from $106,500 a week earlier. Earnings for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) transporting oil through the strait have reached nearly $470,000 per day, a record high.

Ship broker Clarksons said tanker owners are preparing for a surge in Middle Eastern crude shipments, noting that supply remains tight and could tighten further if traffic through Hormuz fully resumes.

Major producers, including Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, have issued multiple tenders this month, encouraging buyers to load cargo directly from Gulf terminals, further boosting demand for tankers.

While shipping rates have risen, war-risk insurance costs have declined in recent days to around 3% of a vessel’s value, down from about 5% a week earlier, reducing overall operating expenses.

The surge in tanker demand comes as global buyers, including Indian refiners such as Reliance Industries, seek to secure crude supplies after months of disruptions caused by regional tensions.

The developments highlight the continuing impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East on global energy markets, shipping costs and oil prices.


https://thekabultribune.com/en/0009628

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Qatar and the U.S. Warn EU of Gas Crunch Over Methane Regulation

By Irina Slav - Jun 24, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT

  • Major LNG suppliers say the EU’s methane regulations are too burdensome to comply with and could lead to reduced gas supplies.
  • The U.S. and Qatar contend that tracking methane emissions across complex gas supply chains is technically difficult or impossible.
  • With nearly 60% of its LNG imports coming from the U.S., the EU risks straining relations with key suppliers as it pursues stricter climate policies.

The United States and Qatar have once again warned the European Union against doubling down on climate policies seeking to penalize the LNG industry, saying that if it continues on this course, the EU will face a gas crunch and higher prices.

“There is no viable path to compliance with the regulation”, the top energy officials of the U.S. and Qatar, Chris Wright and Saad al-Kaabi, wrote in a letter quoted by the Financial Times. “Because legal compliance remains paramount, exporters and importers alike are unwilling to enter into contractual agreements that knowingly violate EU law,” the U.S. energy secretary and the Qatari energy minister also wrote. “Significant supply and price impacts are a certainty.”

The letter comes ahead of a meeting on Friday when the energy ministers of EU member states will discuss the policies of the bloc. It was also signed by two other large gas suppliers to the European Union, Algeria and Nigeria, the FT also reported.

The so-called methane regulation, adopted by the European Union two years ago, aimed at reducing not only the bloc’s own emissions of the greenhouse gas that constitutes almost 100% of natural gas but also forcing countries outside the EU that do business with the bloc to cut their emissions as well, notably gas suppliers. The regulation, starting this year, extends to all energy suppliers to the EU, and these suppliers were anything but happy about it. 

Both the United States and Qatar have already repeatedly warned the EU that they are unwilling to do business with it under the methane regulation that requires gas producers to track their methane emissions from the wellhead to the liquefaction plant and the LNG carrier after that, report them, and take pains to reduce these emissions, or face financial penalties.

Qatar was blunt about it, saying last year that if the EU was so concerned about methane emissions, they should look for some other source of LNG because Qatar would stop selling to the bloc. Secretary Wright also said last year that the methane regulation was impossible to implement and described it as “a critical non-tariff trade barrier that imposes an undue burden on U.S. exporters and our trade relationship.”

In response, Brussels caved partially, saying it will not enforce the penalties stipulated in the regulation until 2030. LNG exporters are still not happy with this option, insisting on what would effectively be the cancellation of the regulation—and they are not alone because there are EU member states that are not really eager to pay the additional cost of low-methane LNG, which would be inevitable, as pointed out by Wright and al-Kaabi.

Not only are higher gas prices for European buyers inevitable, but Secretary Wright was not exaggerating when he said the regulation would be impossible to enforce in the U.S. shale gas patch. The reason is quite simple: U.S. natural gas is produced by multiple companies that then feed their output into a complex gas network that takes the gas to the liquefaction facilities on the Gulf Coast. Tracking every molecule to ensure it was produced and shipped with as few methane emissions as possible is quite literally, physically impossible.

According to energy consultancy Rystad Energy, however, there is no problem with the EU methane regulation, because there are three times as much compliant natural gas available in the world as the EU imports, it said in a study commissioned by climate outlet the Environmental Defense Fund, as cited by the FT. One wonders, however, if that is indeed the case, why would both Qatar and the United States, which together account for a pretty solid portion of global LNG output, claim compliance is impossible, meaning there is not enough compliant gas in the world.

The EU, for all its power posturing, is not in a position of strength. Bloomberg’s Javier Blas reported in a recent column that the bloc buys some 59% of its LNG from the United States, with the figure going all the way to 64% in April. As a result, Blas wrote, some in Brussels are starting to worry that the EU has become too dependent on a single supplier of a vital commodity—and it does not exactly have many alternatives should anything strain relations, such as, perhaps, an ill-conceived methane regulation.

Yet it appears the purpose of the methane regulation is not necessarily to make sure the gas that Europeans buy is “clean”. The purpose, as described by the FT and attributed to proponents such as the Environmental Defense Fund, is to reduce gas consumption, apparently by making the conditions for purchasing that gas unpalatable. For those proponents, reducing gas consumption would improve the EU’s energy security. European industrial energy consumers beg to differ. Who will prevail should become clear pretty soon.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Qatar-and-the-US-Warn-EU-of-Gas-Crunch-Over-Methane-Regulation.html

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2026 Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report - World Bank

The World Bank

Ed Kashi

Overview

The latest Global Gas Flaring Tracker, an independent report of gas flaring worldwide, reveals that global gas flaring rose for the third consecutive year in 2025, reaching 167 billion cubic meters (bcm), the highest recorded level since 2019. The gas wastefully burned could have powered homes and industries, created jobs, reduced import bills, and extended electricity access and clean cooking fuels for communities that still lack it.

Published annually by the World Bank's Global Flaring and Methane Reduction (GFMR) Partnership, in collaboration with the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines, the report provides a comprehensive independent assessment of global gas flaring volumes, intensity, and trends.

HIGHLIGHTS

  • A missed opportunity of historic scale. The 167 bcm of gas flared in 2025 exceeds the volume of LNG (liquified natural gas) that transited the Persian Gulf last year; a resource large enough to equal the gas consumption of Africa, yet burned without benefit.
  • The economics demand action. The gas wasted in 2025 was worth an estimated US$54 billion. Eliminating routine flaring globally would require US$70–100 billion in upfront investment, roughly twice what is currently being lost each year. Yet despite the tools needed to end routine flaring being well established, it persists; what holds back progress is not technical but structural — inadequate regulation, insufficient capital, limited market infrastructure, and a failure by operators and governments to treat reduction as a priority.
  • Progress is possible. Kazakhstan has cut flaring by 87 percent since 2012, and the United States made the largest absolute reduction of any country in 2025. Proven solutions exist. What is needed is the commitment to deploy them.

A Missed Opportunity

The report finds that the 167 bcm flared globally in 2025 exceeds the volume of LNG that transited the Persian Gulf that year, a stark measure of the energy value being wasted. It also matches Africa's entire annual gas consumption, a continent where energy poverty remains a significant barrier to economic development.

In effect, oil producers are burning a valuable resource that could support energy access, reduce reliance on costly imports, generate much-needed revenue in developing countries, and cut greenhouse gas emissions. With acute energy challenges persisting across much of the world, the scale of this missed opportunity demands urgent attention from policymakers, operators, and investors.

Flaring, Economic Growth, and Job Creation

In Sub-Saharan Africa, power outages have been associated with a 14 percent reduction in employment, a reminder that energy is not just an input cost, but a key enabler of economic development. If captured and used to generate power, the 167 bcm of gas flared could provide approximately four billion kilowatt-hours of electricity, enough to make a material difference in underserved communities around the world.

For governments in oil-producing developing countries, flaring reduction represents a win-win: capturing associated gas generates government revenues, expands reliable energy access, enables industrial growth, and supports job creation. The gas is already there. The question is why it is wastefully burned rather than used productively.

The Economics of Action

The US$54 billion worth of gas flared in 2025 represents an annual loss that compounds with every year of inaction. The estimated cost of eliminating routine flaring globally is US$70–100 billion in upfront investment, roughly twice the annual value of the gas currently being wasted. The technologies required to capture, process, and utilize associated gas are mature and widely available. The barrier is not the availability of technology or the absence of viable economics. It is the lack of pipeline infrastructure, gas market development, access to capital, and enforced regulatory standards that make flaring reduction obligatory rather than aspirational.

"The technologies, policies, regulations, and financing mechanisms needed to capture and utilize associated gas are available. What is missing, in too many places, is the leadership, prioritization, and governance needed to put these solutions into practice, creating access to markets and infrastructure. The cost of inaction will be measured in wasted billions in revenue and energy insecurity for millions of people." Zubin Bamji - Manager, GFMR

Promising Areas of Progress

In 2025, the United States achieved the largest absolute reduction in flaring of any country globally, cutting volumes by 0.4 bcm (7 percent). This was driven in significant part by the commissioning of the Matterhorn Express pipeline in the Permian Basin, direct evidence that infrastructure investment can translate into measurable flaring reductions.

Kazakhstan has reduced its flaring by 87 percent since 2012, a transformation achieved through sustained regulatory pressure, government commitment, and targeted infrastructure investment.

These examples demonstrate that even large, complex oil-producing economies can dramatically change course when political will is aligned with investment, and that significant progress is possible when producers take action.

The World Bank

GFMR

About the Global Gas Flaring Tracker

The 2026 edition introduces an enhanced methodology drawing on data from three NOAA satellites and an improved flare location catalog and calibration method developed with the Payne Institute at the Colorado School of Mines. Together, these advances improve both the accuracy and completeness of flare volume estimates.


https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/gasflaringreduction/publication/2026-global-gas-flaring-tracker-report

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DOE: U.S., Qatar, Nigeria, and Algeria Warn Proposed E.U. Methane Regulations Could Disrupt Europe's Oil and Gas Supply

June 24, 2026

WASHINGTON—U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright, Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Ekperikpe Ekpo, and Algerian Minister of State, Minister of Hydrocarbons Mohamed Arkab yesterday sent a letter to the Leaders of the European Commission, European Council, and European Union (EU) Member States, regarding the European Union's proposed EU Methane Regulations (EUMR).

Open Letter to Leaders of the European Commission, European Council, and European Union (EU) Member States on the EU Methane Regulation

Dear President von der Leyen, President Costa, and EU Member State Leaders:

As your largest energy suppliers, we are committed to strengthening our economic and strategic partnerships and ensuring Europe's energy security. We fully support your objectives of increasing EU economic competitiveness, prosperity, sustainability, and energy security through provision of reliable energy supplies for the European Union and its citizens.

It is with these shared goals in mind that we write to urge the EU to take swift, necessary actions to clarify and to adopt targeted amendments to the EU Methane Regulation (EUMR), some of which have already been requested by several EU Member States, industry, and members of European Parliament.

These amendments should also be preceded by the: (i) adoption of a stop the clock mechanism, to provide time to develop necessary methodologies and compliance pathways that work for all; (ii)grandfathering of new contracts signed while these additional legislative adjustments are underway; and (iii) removal of penalties for noncompliance during this transitional period.

As a large and diverse importing region, the EU purchases oil and natural gas from a wide variety of exporters, the majority of which cannot meet the EUMR methane emissions measuring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements on the prescribed timeline. According to an independent, comprehensive industry analysis, nearly all of EU oil imports and a significant quantity of EU natural gas imports will be noncompliant with the EUMR beginning in January 2027. Even with adaptive and flexible implementation, significant negative supply and price impacts are a certainty.

The EU faces a narrow window to make necessary changes to the EUMR as importers have already begun the process of purchasing oil and natural gas that will be stored for delivery in 2027, and as of now there is no viable path to compliance with the regulation.

We understand that non-binding forthcoming guidelines will encourage flexibility in implementation and will recommend against imposing penalties for noncompliance. However, relying on discretionary non enforcement across all 27 EU Member States fails to address the financial and legal risks associated with contracts that often span multiple years and that are valued in the tens of billions of euros. Moreover, because legal compliance remains paramount, exporters and importers alike are unwilling to enter into contractual agreements that knowingly violate EU law, notwithstanding recommendations against penalizing noncompliance.

To be clear, energy producers in our respective nations have already made substantial progress and are spending significant capital to decrease methane emissions intensity. They also intend to continue these efforts, consistent with the objectives of the EUMR.

We strongly encourage a pragmatic approach to clarifying essential missing elements of the EUMR and adopting necessary changes, to allow importers to continue sourcing oil and gas resources needed by the EU market. We also encourage the Commission and EU Member States to work with industry stakeholders on necessary clarifications and changes that enable effective implementation of the law while reducing untenable risks.

We look forward to partnering with you to advance responsible policies that enhance energy access and security throughout the EU.

Yours sincerely,

Chris Wright, United States Secretary of Energy

Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs

Ekperikpe Ekpo, Nigerian Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Gas)

Mohamed Arkab, Minister of State, Minister of Hydrocarbons, People's Democratic Republic of Algeria


https://www.energy.gov/articles/us-qatar-nigeria-and-algeria-warn-proposed-eu-methane-regulations-could-disrupt-europes

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Precious Metals

Silver Prices Today, Wednesday, June 24, 2026: Silver Falls Below $60 - First Time Since Dec. '25

Silver July (SI=F) futures opened at $61.30 today, down 6% compared to yesterday's opening price. The price of silver continued to fall this morning, reaching $59.32 as of 8:18 a.m. ET.

Silver prices opened at their lowest level all week and fell further this morning, breaching the $60 mark. Silver prices haven't opened below $60 since December 9, 2025, when silver started the day at $57.62.

Gold and silver prices continue to struggle in tandem, with silver faring even worse than gold. Like gold, silver prices face familiar headwinds: a strengthening dollar and rate increases on the horizon. Add in the fact that certain industries are reducing their silver usage, and times are particularly tough for silver prices at the moment.

Current price of silver

The opening price of silver futures on Wednesday was down 1.2% compared to Tuesday's opening price. Here's how the opening silver price has changed versus last week, month, and year:

One week ago: -12.8%

One month ago: -19.4%

One year ago: +71.1% (lowest YOY gain all year)

For context, silver's year-over-year growth was 173.3% on May 14.

Silver vs. gold: Which made investors more money over the years?

Over the past 50 years, gold outperformed silver, delivering higher long-term returns. Since the 1970s, silver and gold prices have dramatically increased, but their roles in the economy and their long-term performance are very different.

Governments and investors view gold as a store of value, and central banks hold large gold reserves to protect their economies against global inflation or geopolitical crises. It's also widely used to produce jewelry.

Silver is much more abundant in supply than gold, but it also has more uses. Silver plays a significant role in manufacturing and industrial production; companies use silver to make solar panels, electronics, and medical devices. The industrial demand can affect silver's prices, causing more drastic changes.


https://finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/investing/article/silver-prices-today-wednesday-june-24-2026-silver-falls-below-60---first-time-since-dec-25-123537811.html

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Gold Holds Below $4,000, Silver Below $60 — Has The Shimmer Worn Off the Precious Metal Rally?

PUBLISHED THU, JUN 25 2026 4:46 AM

KEY POINTS

  • Spot gold held below the $4,000 mark on Thursday, while spot silver traded below the $60 level.
  • Gold is down almost 8% so far this year, while silver has shed more than 20%.
  • Market watchers expect pressure on the metals is likely to continue. 

One kilogram and a five hundred gram gold bars next to one kilogram silver bars at The Vaults Group gold dealers arranged in Barcelona, Spain, on Monday, April 28, 2025. Gold was steady after dropping Tuesday as President Donald Trump eased the impact of some auto tariffs and pointed to progress in trade negotiations with several countries. Photographer: Angel Garcia/Bloomberg via Getty Images

One kilogram and a five hundred gram gold bars next to one kilogram silver bars at The Vaults Group gold dealers arranged in Barcelona, Spain, on Monday, April 28, 2025 | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Gold and silver prices are holding below key thresholds as hawkish central banks and inflation fears weigh on the metals — and market watchers see little chance of a meaningful rebound in the near term. 

Spot gold was last seen 0.5% lower at around 4:00 a.m. ET on Thursday, trading at around $3,980.79 an ounce after falling below the $4,000 mark in the previous session. Front-month U.S. gold futures were down by 0.2% to settle at $3986.60. Year-to-date, gold is now down by 7.7%. 

Precious metals rally stalls 

Both gold and silver enjoyed record-smashing rallies in 2025, surging 66% and 135% respectively over the course of the year. 

While the rally continued into early 2026, trade soon turned volatile. Silver futures suffered their biggest single-day blow since the 1980s at the end of January and gold’s safe haven status has been called into question after the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran war in February. 

In a note on Wednesday, strategists at Macquarie said all eyes were now on the trajectory of inflation and whether central banks — particularly the Federal Reserve — will tighten policy to keep prices under control. 

“The apparent end to the conflict in the Middle East, combined with a more hawkish Fed, has caused prices to retreat as gold’s safe haven appeal fades together with the prospect of higher interest rates and a stronger USD, with a Fed rate hike in Q4 now fully priced in,” they said. 

Markets are currently pricing in a Fed rate hike by September, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japanraised interest rates this month in response to the Iran war energy shock. 

Macquarie’s said that new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s first meeting had taken a “hawkish tone” and that, under his leadership, the central bank has “potential to derail or support prices” in the gold market. 

“Post the fallout from the Middle East, which we expect to weigh on global growth into Q3, the eventual upturn in global growth and monetary policy easing cycle should see gold prices trend lower as more investor money transitions out of precious metals,” they said. 

“Investors have been taking profit and pivoting towards equities … This creates space for investors to re-enter the precious space, thereby pushing prices back up, but it would likely require a major macro event to reignite interest.”

Inflation weighs on prices

Macquarie is forecasting an average gold spot price of $4,641 per ounce for 2026, a 35% year-on-year gain, but it expects prices to fall 9.5% to $4,200 in 2027 and decline every year until 2030. It trimmed its year-end forecast for spot gold to $4,300 on Wednesday from a previous outlook of $4,400. 

Profit taking put pressure on silver prices last month, Macquarie said, adding that “price action is back to being macro driven” amid rising expectations of a Fed rate hike. 

“As with gold, we expect prices to remain range bound for the remainder of this year before gradually trending lower in 2027, with tensions caused by inflation and the probability of a Fed hike to limit further upside,” they said. 

“The higher inflation and bond yields move, the greater the downwards pressure. For silver in particular, bullish investor sentiment fueled by tighter supply, low inventories and strong demand has caused prices to outperform gold, making it more vulnerable to a retracement. And historically silver retraces quickly.”

Macquarie expects silver to trade at $70 per ounce in the final quarter of this year, before falling to $65 an ounce by the end of 2027. 

Guy Adami, co-founder or RiskReversal Media and a “Fast Money” trader, told CNBC’s “Closing Bell Overtime” on Wednesday that gold is “still in play” despite facing a series of headwinds. 

“There was this talk [of] central banks potentially selling [gold] at the beginning of the war, I have no validation or verification of that, but that was out there, and in a world where Micron adds $130 billion of market cap in the after hours, people are saying, ‘why am I messing around with gold right now?’” he said. 

“I’m still of the belief that inflation is a problem. I think interest rates go higher. I understand the headwinds that the dollar provides, but at some point I think it’s all going to sort of flip, and gold is going to be back in favor,” Adami added. 

Noting that gold is now down around 24% from its all-time high, he said “it makes no sense” to argue for a fresh gold rally. 

“But I’m still of the belief that central banks will continue to add to their positions, and gold is going to still be in play for the remainder of the year,” he told CNBC. 

The World Gold Council’s annual Central Bank Gold Reserves survey, published last week, found that central banks continue to view gold as a key hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. Almost 90% of respondents said they expect global central bank gold reserves to increase over the next year. 

However, a number of Wall Street analysts have slashed their target prices for gold in recent weeks. 

Strategists at OCBC said in a note on Thursday morning that heavy pressure remains on gold prices after the break below $4,000, with price action increasingly reconnecting with real yields. 

“Even as the medium-term constructive story holds, the recent hawkish Fed rhetoric and higher real rate environment argue for a more cautious stance on gold in the near term,” they said. “Until real yields ease or ETF liquidation slows or hawkish Fed rhetoric unwinds more, rallies may remain vulnerable to fading.”


https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/25/gold-silver-price-rally-invest-interest-rates.html

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Base Metals

Mining Giants Hammered as Inflation Fears Spread to Copper

Mounting inflation fears spilt over into the industrial metals sector on Tuesday, dragging down the share prices of mining heavyweights Anglo American, Glencore and BHP as investors braced for interest rate hikes.

While inflation concerns have weighed on precious metal producers since the start of the Iran war, their effect on base metal miners has so far been measured. However, with prices now expected to stay high for longer, markets are increasingly anxious of cooling demand for industrial commodities.

Copper prices, which were trading around record highs as recently as early June, have taken a steep tumble over the past week due to subdued Chinese demand, according to Trading Economics data.

The anxiety about prices saw shares in Anglo American and BHP, both of whom have centred most of their growth strategies around their South American copper mines, lose 4.87% and 3.6%, respectively, on Tuesday, each closing at their lowest levels in six weeks.

Glencore, another copper giant, fell 4.58% to its own three-month low. As a result, the industrial metals & mining index was down 4.26%, its worst day in more than a month, closing at levels not seen since April.

All of this comes just days after American and Iranian officials concluded what appeared to have been a positive round of talks in Switzerland, suggesting that inflation and interest rate fears extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz.

Consulting firm Kearney has warned that due to the pressure of Middle East tension on fuel prices and supply chains inflation is unlikely to peak soon. SA Reserve Bank governor Lesetja Kganyago expects inflation to peak only in the first quarter of next year.

That probably means central banks everywhere will be forced to raise their borrowing rates, discouraging investment in new mining projects and squeezing base metal prices.

In recent months, inflation has continued to hover above the US central bank’s 2% target. The hawkish tone from Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh at his first federal open market committee meeting earlier this month has further added to fears of tightening.

“Markets are now increasingly pricing in another US rate hike, with expectations for policy easing pushed further into the future,” said TreasuryOne head of market risk Wichard Cilliers.

Meanwhile, precious metal miners continue to feel the pressure of rate hike expectations. Rate hikes would make gold relatively less attractive than bonds and currency-denominated assets, since it pays no interest.

As gold prices decline for a fourth consecutive month, the JSE precious metals and mining index has plunged by more than 20% in the second quarter of 2026, piling pressure on the overall market.


https://www.businesslive.co.za/markets/2026-06-24-anglo-glencore-and-bhp-tumble-as-inflation-fears-hammer-miners/

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CopperTech Metals Has Launched Plans For a US Initial Public Offering

CopperTech Metals has launched plans for a US initial public offering (IPO), seeking to raise approximately US$423.5 million through the sale of 23.5 million shares priced between US$16 and US$18 each. The offering could value the company at up to US$3.57 billion. CopperTech, established by Vedanta Resources, owns and operates Konkola Copper Mines (KCM) in Zambia. The company plans to invest approximately US$2.7 billion over the next five fiscal years to increase copper production at KCM, targeting average annual output of around 270,000 tonnes from fiscal year 2030 onward.


https://news.metal.com/en/newscontent/103968162-CopperTech-Metals-Targets-US423-Million-IPO-to-Fund-Zambia-Copper-Expansion

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Idaho Copper Anticipates Uplisting To The NYSE American Exchange, Effective On Or About June 26

Idaho Copper Corp. (OTC:COPR) ("Idaho Copper" or the "Company"), a critical minerals developer advancing the flagship CuMo copper-molybdenum-silver project in Idaho, today announced that it expects its shares of common stock and warrants to be approved for listing on the NYSE American LLC stock exchange (the "NYSE American") under the symbol "COPR" and "COPR WS", respectively, at the opening of trading on or about Friday, June 26, 2026, subject to final authorization of the Company’s listing application and continued compliance with the exchange rules.

The Company’s common stock is presently quoted on the OTC Pink Limited Market operated by OTC Markets Group Inc. ("OTC") under the symbol "COPR". The Company expects that its shares of common stock will continue to trade on the OTC until the close of the market on or about the day before the common stock begins trading on the NYSE American. Upon effectiveness of the listing on the NYSE American, trading of the common stock on the OTC will terminate and automatically begin on the NYSE American. Stockholders of the Company do not need to take any action prior to the listing of the Company’s shares on the NYSE American.


https://www.sahmcapital.com/news/content/idaho-copper-anticipates-uplisting-to-the-nyse-american-exchange-effective-on-or-about-june-26-2026-06-23

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Coal

Ministry Pushes Clean Coal Cooperation at BRICS Event

The Ministry of Coal has hosted a BRICS Side Event on Clean Coal Technologies, placing coal gasification at the centre of discussions on energy security, industrial growth and cleaner use of coal. The event brought together senior government officials, public sector enterprises, industry representatives, technology providers and BRICS delegates from Russia, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.

Delivering the keynote address, Additional Secretary in the Ministry of Coal Sanoj Kumar Jha said coal gasification can help India make better use of its domestic coal resources while reducing dependence on imports. He explained that coal gasification converts coal into syngas, which can be used to produce ammonia, methanol, hydrogen, synthetic fuels, direct reduced iron and other value-added products.

India targets 100 million tonnes of coal gasification by 2030

Jha reiterated the government’s commitment to gasifying 100 million tonnes of coal by 2030 through policy support, financial incentives, assured coal linkages and coordination across ministries. He said the technology has strong potential to support India’s industrial development while strengthening long-term energy security. The event also highlighted the importance of cooperation among BRICS countries in advancing clean coal technologies, sharing expertise and improving project implementation.

Presentations were delivered by Bharat Heavy Electricals Limited on coal gasification technology, while Jindal Steel Limited and Greta Energy shared details of their projects and discussed the relevance of coal gasification for BRICS economies. Eastern Coalfields Limited presented progress on the Kasta Underground Coal Gasification Pilot Project. The Nominated Authority outlined coal block allocation and policy initiatives related to underground coal gasification, while Coal India Limited showcased coal linkage provisions and its ongoing gasification projects.

Experts discuss technology, finance and project challenges

An interactive panel discussion examined key issues shaping the future of coal gasification in India and other BRICS countries. Participants discussed technology choices, project economics, geological and processing challenges, and the use of high-ash Indian coal in gasification projects. The discussion also focused on the type of policy and financial support needed to expand adoption of the technology at scale.

The Ministry said the event created a platform for knowledge-sharing between BRICS partners, government agencies, public sector companies and private industry. By focusing on coal gasification, India is seeking to promote cleaner and more productive use of coal while supporting manufacturing, reducing import dependence and building stronger industrial supply chains. The BRICS side event underlined the role of cooperation, technology exchange and targeted investment in developing clean coal solutions suited to the energy needs of emerging economies.


https://www.devdiscourse.com/article/law-order/3940137-ministry-pushes-clean-coal-cooperation-at-brics-event?amp

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