By Ateeq Shariff
Stock markets in the Gulf were mixed on Sunday, with the Saudi index falling on soft oil prices and lackluster earnings, while the Egyptian index rose to a new peak.
Saudi Arabia's benchmark index TASI dropped 0.5%, hit by a 4.6% plunge in Umm Al Qura For Development and Construction Co 4325 - falling for a fourth consecutive session.
Elsewhere, oil giant Saudi Aramco 2222 dropped 0.5%, while Saudi Telecom Company 7010 lost 0.7%, as the stock traded ex-dividend.
Among other decliners, Saudi Research and Media Group 4210 retreated 5.1% after posting a third-quarter loss.
On Friday, crude prices recovered from a midday dip on hopes Hungary can use Russian crude oil as Trump met Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban at the White House.
Brent BRN1! rose 25 cents to settle at $63.63.
In Qatar, the index GNRI eased 0.1%, with Qatar Islamic Bank QIBK losing 0.4%.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index EGX30 advanced 2.2% - hitting a record high - as most of its constituents were in positive territory including Commercial International Bank COMI, which was up 2.3%.
Egypt and Qatar signed a partnership deal on Thursday to develop a luxury real estate and tourism project on Egypt's Mediterranean coast, part of Doha's $7.5 billion investment pledge to Cairo.
November 10, 2025 05:58 ET | Source: BARRICK MINING CORPORATION
All amounts expressed in U.S. dollars
TORONTO, Nov. 10, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:B)(TSX:ABX) (“Barrick” or the “Company”) today announced a 25% increase in its quarterly base dividend to $0.125 per share. Consistent with the Company’s Performance Dividend Policy, Barrick also announced a dividend of $0.175 per share for the third quarter of 2025, inclusive of a $0.05 per share performance dividend.
The Q3 2025 dividend will be paid on December 15, 2025 to shareholders of record at the close of business on November 28, 2025.
In addition to the enhanced quarterly dividend, Barrick repurchased approximately 18.60 million shares during Q3 under the share buyback program that was announced in February 2025. As of the end of Q3, Barrick has repurchased approximately 39.79 million shares under this year’s program, or approximately 2.3% of Barrick’s issued and outstanding shares at the time this year’s program was announced, for cash of $1.0 billion, including $589 million paid during Q3.
The Company’s Performance Dividend Policy has been updated to account for the increase in the base quarterly dividend as follows:
“Through a combination of enhanced dividends and share buybacks, we have provided significant financial benefits to our shareholders,” said senior executive vice-president and chief financial officer Graham Shuttleworth. “Along with our strong operating performance, cash flows and strategic initiatives, we expect to continue to provide meaningful returns while maintaining a robust balance sheet.”
About Barrick Mining Corporation
Barrick is a leading global mining, exploration and development company. With one of the largest portfolios of world-class and long-life gold and copper assets in the industry—including six of the world’s Tier One gold mines—Barrick’s operations and projects span 18 countries and five continents. Barrick is also the largest gold producer in the United States. We create real, long-term value for all stakeholders through responsible mining, strong partnerships and a disciplined approach to growth. Barrick shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘B’ and on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol ‘ABX’.
Investor Relations Contact
Barrick Mining Corporation
Cleve Rueckert, +1 775 397 5443
cleveland.rueckert@barrick.com
Media Contact
Brunswick Group
Carole Cable, +44 (0) 7974 982 458
barrick@brunswickgroup.com
European aluminum importers are racing to secure supplies of the metal following an outage at a key smelter in Iceland and before a new carbon tax comes into force, pushing premiums to a nine-month high.
The European aluminum duty-paid premium, which buyers on the physical market pay over the London Metal Exchange price to cover taxes, freight and handling costs, is currently at $324 a ton. It hit $330 on November 3, the highest since late January.
The 320,000-ton-per-year Grundartangi smelter in Iceland, owned by Century Aluminum, cut production by two-thirds in late October due to electrical equipment failure.
It will take an estimated 11-12 months for replacement transformers to be manufactured, shipped and installed, Century CEO Jesse Gary said on an earnings call last week, adding that the potline could be restarted sooner if the failed transformers can be repaired.
Iceland was the EU’s second-biggest supplier of aluminum in the first eight months of this year, sending 241,412 tons. Top supplier Mozambique shipped 337,670 tons to the bloc.
After a two-year transition period, importers of aluminum into the European Economic Area (EEA) will be charged a carbon price under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from January 1, 2026, although they will not have to make payment until 2027.
Importers front-loading
Importers have been front-loading aluminum ahead of CBAM, said Wood Mackenzie aluminum research director Edgardo Gelsomino, citing conversations with traders.
“In addition to avoiding carbon costs, they’re also aiming to reduce the administrative burden associated with the new regulation,” he added.
The CBAM charge, which will depend on the emissions of the aluminum smelter behind the metal, aims to put a fair price on carbon emitted during production. It will also apply to EU imports of iron and steel, cement, electricity, hydrogen and fertilizers from next year.
Metal made by Norsk Hydro in Norway and smelters in Iceland, as part of the EEA, will not be subject to the charge.
Aluminum produced by many Middle Eastern and Canadian smelters will face a relatively small cost of 10 euros ($11.66) to 50 euros per ton because of their low direct emissions intensity, said Nick Ogilvie, CBAM lead at carbon accounting software provider CarbonChain.
“But there are certainly smelters whose products are unlikely to be coming to the EU anymore because they’re using very old technology,” Ogilvie added.
($1 = 0.8575 euros)
(By Tom Daly; Editing by Pratima Desai and Ed Osmond)
https://www.mining.com/web/eu-aluminum-buyers-scramble-as-iceland-outage-hits-carbon-tax-looms/
The halt on the export ban targeted metals like antimony, used both in battery technology and by the arms industry to reinforce armour plating and ammunition.
China suspended an export ban to the United States that targeted gallium, germanium and antimony, metals crucial for modern technology, Beijing’s Commerce Ministry announced on Nov 9 in a further de-escalation of the trade war with Washington.
The restrictions banned the export of so-called dual-use goods, materials that can have both civilian and military applications.
Imposed in December 2024 , the ban will now be suspended until Nov 27, 2026.
The announcement comes after Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump met on Oct 30 in South Korea and agreed to walk back some punitive measures imposed during their tit-for-tat tariff escalation.
At one point, duties on both sides reached prohibitive triple-digit levels, hampering trade between the world’s two largest economies and snarling global supply chains.
Throughout the trade war, China has sought to leverage its chokehold over the critical minerals underpinning everything from smartphones to advanced military technology.
Gallium, germanium and antimony are not classed as rare earth elements but are crucial for entire sectors of the economy.
China accounts for 94 per cent of the world’s production of gallium – used in integrated circuits, LEDs and photovoltaic panels – according to a report by the European Union published in 2024.
For germanium, essential for fibre optics and infrared, China makes up 83 per cent of production.
Antimony is used both in battery technology and by the arms industry to reinforce armour plating and ammunition.
In its brief statement, the Commerce Ministry also announced the easing of restrictions on exports of graphite-related products, which were likewise banned under the controls on dual-use goods.
These are the latest de-escalation measures taken by Beijing since the Xi-Trump meeting .
On Nov 5, China announced that it would extend the suspension of additional tariffs on US goods for one year, keeping them at 10 per cent. It also said it would cease applying additional tariffs imposed since March on soya beans and a number of other US agricultural products.
These measures had severely impacted a key source of Mr Trump’s political support: farmers.
Mr Trump announced at the end of October that China agreed to suspend for one year the restrictions imposed on Oct 9 on the export of rare earths technology.
Rare earths are a strategic field dominated by China and are essential for manufacturing in defence, automobiles and consumer electronics. AFP
Clyde Russell - Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist
November 9, 202511:52 PM GMTUpdated 11 hours ago
A boat moves past a cargo ship with containers at a terminal of the Yantian port in Shenzhen, Guangdong province, China October 30, 2025. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang Purchase Licensing Rights
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 10 (Reuters) - China's imports of major commodities were largely soft in October as high prices weighed on volumes, with iron ore's resilience bucking the trend despite the steel sector showing signs of pressure.
Crude oil, natural gas, copper and coal all showed declines from September, according to data released on Friday by the General Administration of Customs.
China, the world's biggest importer of crude oil, saw arrivals of 11.39 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, the third straight monthly decline and down from 11.50 million bpd in September.
The easing in oil imports is most likely a reflection of the higher global prices that prevailed at the time when October-arriving cargoes would have been arranged.
Benchmark Brent futures hit a six-month high of $81.40 a barrel on June 23 during the brief conflict between Israel and Iran, and while they retreated to a low of $66.34 by July 1, they once again trended higher to reach $73.63 by July 31.
Since then, oil prices have been declining on a trend basis, with the occasional spike higher, largely caused by geopolitical events such as the announcement of new sanctions on Russia's crude producers by U.S. President Donald Trump.
China has suspended its export ban on critical rare earth metals to the United States following a trade settlement with President Donald Trump in South Korea last month. The Commerce Ministry confirmed today that restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, tungsten and graphite would be lifted for one year as part of a broader economic agreement.
The suspension follows a high-stakes meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan on 30th October, where the leaders reached a trade truce to de-escalate tensions between the world's two largest economies. China had imposed the export ban in December 2024, citing national security concerns, with additional restrictions announced in October covering 12 rare earth elements in total.
The affected metals are essential for advanced semiconductors, military hardware and high-tech industries. Gallium and germanium are used in computing chips, whilst antimony is critical for explosives and tungsten features in armour-piercing ammunition. Between 2020 and 2023, 70 per cent of US imports of rare earth compounds came from China, which controls approximately 60 per cent of global mining and 90 per cent of processing capacity.
Under the agreement, China committed to effectively eliminate export controls on rare earth elements whilst issuing general licences for shipments to US manufacturers. In exchange, Washington agreed to suspend implementation of Section 301 tariffs for one year and halt plans for an additional 100 per cent tariff increase. The White House said the deal would ensure American companies have reliable access to materials used in advanced technologies.
The FTSE 100 is poised for another record-breaking session on Tuesday, with futures pointing to a positive opening after fresh UK jobs data weakened the pound and Wall Street closed sharply higher overnight.
London’s blue-chip index has been called up 85 points, which would propel it well into new record territory following Monday’s all-time closing high of 9,787.15, a gain of 104.58 points.
Momentum is being fuelled by strong gains on US markets, where the tech-heavy Nasdaq surged 2.3%, the S&P 500 climbed 1.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% amid renewed investor optimism over the potential end of the US government shutdown.
In Asia, markets were more subdued, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipping 0.2% and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 edging down 0.1%.
Back in the UK, new data showed signs of a cooling labour market. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up to 5.0% in the three months to October from 4.9%, while average pay including bonuses eased to 4.8% from 5.0%, defying economists’ expectations for no change. Wages excluding bonuses softened slightly to 4.6%, matching forecasts.
The weaker jobs data weighed on sterling, helping to bolster London-listed multinationals that benefit from a softer pound — setting the stage for another strong day on the UK market.
https://www.share-talk.com/the-ftse-100-is-poised-for-another-record-breaking-session-on-tuesday/
Finland’s former president Sauli Niinistö has called on the European Union to open direct channels of communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin to press for an end to the war in Ukraine.
“I still see something rather absurd in the situation where Europeans declare that they won’t talk to the war criminal Putin, yet Trump talks to him and then we go and listen to find out what they discussed,” Niinistö said in comments to the Finnish state broadcaster Yle on Monday.
“At the same time, we slightly worry that they might talk over Europe’s head,” the former president added. “I think it might be wise for Europe, too, to hold those discussions itself, just as Trump does.”
Niinistö served as Finland’s president from 2012 to 2024 and oversaw the country’s entry into NATO the year after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen pushed back against Niinistö’s call for the EU to engage with Putin directly, saying it was not yet time for such talks due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and the Kremlin’s apparent lack of interest in genuine peace negotiations. She told reporters that dialogue for its own sake is not the goal.
Prime Minister Petteri Orpo and Defense Minister Antti Häkkänen echoed her sentiment, saying that any eventual future contacts with Russia must be coordinated across the EU.
“We’re stronger when we speak with one voice,” Orpo was quoted as saying.
Finnish President Alexander Stubb said earlier this year that Helsinki should “mentally prepare” to restore relations with Russia after the war in Ukraine ends. The Kremlin responded that Putin was open to “mutually beneficial and respectful” ties with Finland if Helsinki sought the same.
13 NOV, 2025 BY ROB HAKIMIAN
The government has chosen Wylfa on Anglesey as the site for the UK’s first small modular reactors (SMRs), a decision ministers say will bring thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of investment to North Wales over the next decade.
The prime minister announced the selection and confirmed that publicly owned Great British Energy–Nuclear (GBE‑N) will develop the project. As announced over the summer, Rolls‑Royce SMR has been named as the preferred designer, subject to final contracts. The initial scheme is for three SMR units, with GBE‑N assessing the site’s potential to host up to eight reactors.
Construction activity is expected to start in 2026, with electricity generation targeted for the mid‑2030s.
Ministers have cast the move as a revival of Wylfa’s long industrial relationship with nuclear power. The original Wylfa Magnox station, on Anglesey’s north coast, operated from the 1960s until its closure in 2015. Government statements estimate the new project could support up to 3,000 jobs in peak construction and drive “billions” of pounds of infrastructure spending into the area through the mid‑2030s.
The SMR technology is significantly smaller than conventional large reactors and is being promoted by the government as quicker and cheaper to construct, contributing to energy security and the transition to low‑carbon power. Officials say the UK’s first SMRs would supply enough electricity for the equivalent of about 3M homes. The government is also providing the programme with public backing through GBE‑N, which it describes as giving the “British people a stake” in the technology.
Several aspects of the plan will require further decisions and approvals. Rolls‑Royce SMR remains preferred bidder pending final contract sign‑off, and the timetable and costs of first‑of‑a‑kind SMRs can be uncertain. The government has previously altered planning rules to ease siting of new nuclear projects in England and Wales and says it has reached regulatory cooperation agreements with the United States to speed approvals.
Local and regional economic measures feature in ministers’ case for Wylfa. The government highlighted existing initiatives such as an Anglesey Freeport and an Investment Zone for advanced manufacturing, along with rail upgrades on the North Wales mainline, saying the SMR project would build on those investments. Officials also point to wider employment targets: the government has previously announced a plan to create 400,000 extra jobs in clean energy by 2030, including 15,000 in Wales.
The announcement has international dimensions: the UK and the Czechia recently agreed a cooperation deal on civil nuclear energy, and Czech utility ČEZ holds a 20% stake in the Rolls‑Royce SMR project, underlining export opportunities for the technology.
Not all details have been resolved. Ministers did not publish a final contract with Rolls‑Royce SMR or confirm the full funding arrangements for construction. Energy analysts and some campaign groups have previously warned that small modular reactor projects face technological, regulatory and financing hurdles and stressed that timelines for novel nuclear programmes are often optimistic.
GBE‑N also owns the Oldbury site in Gloucestershire, another former nuclear location that officials say could be suitable for future projects. However, experts have told NCE about the risks of siting new nuclear at Oldbury due to its high level of future flood risk.
KEY POINTS:
By Erwin Seba
Oil prices fell more than $2 on Wednesday, weighed down by an OPEC report saying global oil supply will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit.
Brent crude futures BRN1! fell $2.15, or 3.3%, to $63.01 a barrel by 10:11 a.m. CST (1611 GMT) after gaining 1.7% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CL1! was down $2.07, or 3.39%, at $58.97 a barrel, after climbing 1.5% in the previous session.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries noted that world oil supply would match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group's production increases - a shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026.
"The prospect that the market is in balance is definitely what drove down prices," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "I think the market wants to believe it's balanced. I think the market took OPEC more seriously than IEA."
The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, forecast in its annual World Energy Outlook on Wednesday that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050.
The projection was a departure from the IEA's previous expectation that global oil demand would peak this decade, as the international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges back to one that takes into account only existing policies.
"Due to a modest downward revision of oil demand and higher non-OPEC+ supply in 3Q, the OPEC secretariat now also predicts a surplus for 3Q. That said, it is still much smaller compared to EIA and IEA," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Analysts have previously highlighted that crude oversupply is curbing price gains. OPEC+ agreed this month to a pause in increasing its output in the first quarter of next year, after having unwound its cuts to production since August this year.
US GOVERNMENT REOPENING
The reopening of the U.S. government, however, could boost consumer confidence and economic activity, spurring demand for crude oil, IG Market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.
The U.S. Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote later on Wednesday on a bill, already signed off by the Senate, that would restore funding to government agencies through January 30.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its outlook on Thursday.
Despite media speculation about India avoiding Russian oil, monitoring shows record Russian exports and overloaded ports, as buyers rush to secure crude before future sanctions take effect.
Did the Indians really get scared of Trump’s sanctions, and did their refineries actually stop accepting Russian oil? — we wondered during our daily monitoring when we saw that for 3-6 days several of “our” tankers from the Baltic and the Black Sea for some reason were not entering the Gulf of Kutch, on the shore of which several major oil ports/terminals/refineries are located — Sikka, Vadinar, Mundra (1, 2, 3 on the map). This was reported by Andrii Klymenko.
This is exactly what many media — both Ukrainian and foreign — are unfortunately writing. But what is the reality? It’s very easy to understand even without being an expert. Just look at the map from a popular maritime resource.
It’s completely crowded. The ports/terminals simply do not have time to receive and process tankers. All those red dots in the gulf are tankers waiting…
Right now we have record volumes of Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports (contrary to what the “greatest” recently claimed).
Why is that?
1. Because due to Ukraine’s “long-range sanctions” against Russian refineries, the enemy state was forced to redirect as much crude as possible for export — otherwise they would have to cap the wells. Because they have nowhere to put that bloody oil.
2. Although India and China do not believe that the “greatest” will actually enforce his demonstrative sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, they still want to build up reserves at normal prices (and bargain for a discount) before 21.11.2025, when the sanctions officially come into force.
So, we carefully follow the results of our monitoring and don’t fall for the sycophantic propaganda from the media towards the “greatest,” nor our own wishful thinking.
Only tough realism will allow us to build the next adequate steps in this struggle.
On November 8, Hungarian leader Viktor Orban's team began lying about receiving an indefinite exemption from U.S. sanctions on the use of Russian oil and gas. However, the White House administration denied these fabrications.
Points of attention
Orbán's team publicly disgraced again
Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó was one of the first to lie about the indefinite exemption from sanctions.
The Prime Minister (Viktor Orban. — ed.) spoke clearly. He agreed with the US President that we received an indefinite exemption from sanctions. Oil and gas supplies to Hungary are not subject to sanctions for an indefinite period, — the Hungarian Foreign Minister wrote on Facebook. Share
However, a representative of Donald Trump's team told reporters that this was a lie, and the postponement is valid for only one year.
In addition, it is noted that Hungary is also diversifying its energy purchases and has committed to purchasing liquefied natural gas from the United States under contracts worth about $600 million.
As mentioned earlier, on November 7, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban flew to Washington for talks about Donald Trump.
https://news.online.ua/en/us-refutes-orbans-lies-after-meeting-with-trump-898675/
By City A.M - Nov 08, 2025, 4:00 PM CST
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch has declared an oil and gas “emergency” in the North East of Scotland as she pushes the Labour government to overturn its ban on new oil and gas licenses.
Badenoch has pledged to “get Britain drilling again” in a new campaign in partnership with the Scottish Conservatives.
The announcement marks the Conservative leader’s growing focus on oil and gas, splitting from previous party leaders who were more critical of fossil fuels.
Badenoch, who is currently in Aberdeen, has called on Chancellor Rachel Reeves to scrap the green levy on energy bills at the Budget later this month.
The Tory leader has re-emphasised her party’s focus on providing cheap energy for families, claiming that the Government’s renewable energy ambitions are driving up electricity prices.
But the Government insists that investing in green power is “the best way” to bring down energy costs.
Badenoch announced last month that her party would scrap legislation forcing the government to achieve net zero by 2050.
Badenoch said the North East of Scotland, along with the UK, is facing an energy crisis and called on energy secretary Ed Miliband to allow new gas and oil licenses.
She believes this would stimulate economic growth and productivity, and save the livelihoods of oil and gas workers who she says face losing their jobs.
Badenoch hits out at Labour’s oil and gas policy
Labour promised in its manifesto not to grant new licenses on new oil and gas fields, but energy secretary Ed Miliband is reportedly considering watering down his ban on drilling in the North Sea.
Badenoch said: “By the end of Labour’s first term in office, it’s not inconceivable that Scotland’s oil and gas sector will be at serious risk, with domestic production currently set to half by 2030.
“That would be a shocking indictment of Labour’s energy policy, and a dangerous act of economic self-sabotage.
“If the Labour government fails to act, we could be witness to the end of our domestic energy security as we know it.”
Starmer in Brazil
Andrew Bowie MP, the shadow secretary of state for Scotland, said: “Labour and the SNP are putting the economic livelihood of Scotland, and the economic security of the UK in serious danger.
“Only the Conservatives have a clear plan to back our domestic energy industry – putting it front and centre in our plan to deliver a stronger economy.”
The Tory leader’s comments come as Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer travels to the COP30 climate conference in Brazil.
Ahead of the conference, he said that pushing for climate action is a “challenge,” but insisted that he is still committed to cutting emissions.
A Labour Party spokesperson said: “Kemi Badenoch is doubling down on the same failed Tory energy policy that caused the worst cost of living crisis in a generation.
“The Conservatives’ anti-growth, anti-jobs, anti-investment position on clean energy would cost hundreds of thousands of jobs, leave Britain reliant on insecure, expensive fossil fuels, and lock families into higher bills for generations to come.
Brazil, Guyana, Argentina to Lead Next Wave of Oil Supply Through 2030
Oil from offshore Brazil, Guyana, Suriname, and Argentina's Vaca Muerta shale play will be key sources of cost-competitive non-OPEC oil supply through 2030, according to Rystad Energy. The Norwegian energy consultancy has predicted that global liquids demand will peak in the 2030s at around 107 million barrels per day, maintain a plateau above 100 million bpd through the 2040s before declining to around 75 million bpd by 2050.
According to the firm, non-OPEC+ supply will be key to balancing the global market, with cheap oil from South America helping to offset slower U.S. shale growth. Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for around 5.9 million bpd, or nearly 60%, of new conventional oil currently under development through 2030. South America will be the main source of this supply growth at 560,000 bpd of crude and condensate, with North America supplying approximately 480,000 bpd.
Radhika Bansal, VP of Upstream Research at Rystad Energy, said today's producing wells are on track to deliver less than half of their current output by 2030, a trend that reinforces the need for sustained investment in both new and mature fields. She noted that undeveloped and discovered assets will continue to play a key role in meeting global supply needs through the mid-2030s.
While the market could briefly tip into oversupply, Bansal cautioned that "above-surface risks could trigger delays in project timelines." She added that South America's deepwater track record positions it well to provide competitive barrels globally, with continued investment needed as the supply gap is expected to widen after the mid-2030s.
Brazil is a leading source of production growth, especially from its prolific offshore ultra-deepwater pre-salt oil fields, which boast low break-even costs. Major investments are being made, with several new Floating Production Storage and Offloading units scheduled to come online in the current year. Brazil's offshore oil production is a major driver of its economy, with production primarily from pre-salt fields like Lula and Buzios, operated mostly by the state-owned company Petrobras.
The country has set new production records and continues to increase its output through the development of new platforms and exploration in deepwater fields, though it faces regulatory and infrastructural challenges. The Lula Field is one of Brazil's most significant offshore projects with estimated reserves of 8.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent; Buzios Field achieved a record 800,000 barrels of oil per day in February 2025, with more platforms being added to increase capacity.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/brazil-guyana-argentina-to-lead-next-wave-of-oil-supply-through-2030/
As Russia faces tightening Western sanctions on its oil exports, its producers may well look to Iran for tactics to evade restrictions and keep the crude flowing to global markets. Despite "maximum pressure" U.S. sanctions, Iranian oil exports hit a seven-year high of 2.3 million barrels per day in October, per TankerTrackers.com - up from just 400,000 barrels per day five years ago. The achievement shows Iran's well-honed skill in disguising and moving its barrels, as well as China's constant appetite for discounted crude.
Iranian oil analyst Homayoun Falakshahi put the number slightly lower at 2.1 million barrels per day, but noted that this would still be at near-record levels. September's numbers were also exceptional for Iran, coming in at about 2.1 million barrels per day at a price discount of about 5-10 percent below dated Brent. This is enough oil to raise roughly $4 billion per month to support the Iranian regime, according to Saeed Ghasseminejad of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.
Almost all of the oil is sold to buyers in China, where it is popular with the owners of private "teapot" refineries. China accounts for the sale of nine out of ten barrels from Iran, thanks in part to extensive use of subterfuge methods like ship-to-ship transfers, blending and falsified paperwork.
"Despite the framework of U.S. economic pressure, Iran’s observed exports, averaging roughly 1.8 million bpd in 2025, exceed levels recorded during the first Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign, reflecting the evolution of a parallel ecosystem of shadow tonnage, permissive registries, and non-transparent financing," commented Ghasseminejad in a research note published last month.
The numbers show Iran's continued ability to flout American pressure. Upon taking office in January, President Donald Trump instructed the State Department to "impose maximum economic pressure on the government of Iran." The executive order was intended to deny Iran the financial ability to make nuclear weapons and ballistic missile systems; Iran's nuclear program was dealt a major setback in June when long-range American airstrikes hit its uranium enrichment facilities, but many analysts believe that its nuclear ambitions remain intact.
The October numbers also follow the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran's nuclear program. On September 27, with backing from European Union member states, the United Nations rebooted six sanctions resolutions that had been dormant since 2015 under the terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the "Iran nuclear deal." The UN sanctions target Iranian nuclear and military activities, including its arms export industry, but do not take aim at its energy trade.
http://www.maritime-executive.com/article/despite-u-s-sanctions-iran-s-oil-exports-hit-record-levels
BAGHDAD (Reuters) -Lukoil has declared force majeure at Iraq's giant West Qurna-2 oilfield, four sources with knowledge of the matter said on Monday, after Western sanctions on the Russian oil major hampered its operations.
Lukoil did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
The United States and Britain imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil companies, last month.
Iraq has since halted all cash and crude payments to the company, three of the sources said.
Lukoil sent a letter to Iraq's oil ministry last Tuesday saying there are force majeure conditions preventing it from continuing normal operations at the West Qurna-2 field, the four sources said.
If the reasons behind the force majeure are not resolved within six months, Lukoil will shut production and exit the project entirely, a senior Iraqi oil industry official said.
Reuters reported last week that Iraq's state oil firm SOMO cancelled loadings of three crude oil cargoes from Lukoil's equity production at the oilfield over the sanctions.
West Qurna-2, one of the world's largest oilfields, is Lukoil's most prized foreign asset. It is located 65 kilometres (40 miles) northwest of the southern port of Basra.
The field accounts for around 9% of Iraqi total oil production. It is currently producing around 480,000 barrels per day, two oilfield officials said.
Crude oil volumes allocated for in-kind payments to Lukoil for November - about 4 million barrels - have been cancelled, said one of the sources, an oil ministry official.
Payments to Lukoil generated by its Iraqi operations remain frozen under U.S. sanctions until there is a contractual adjustment that secures a mechanism for developing the oilfield and a way to make payments to non-sanctioned entities, the oil ministry official said, adding that Iraq cannot deal with companies under U.S. sanctions.
SOMO will not be able to continue its crude oil supply contract with Lukoil until the issues behind these sanctions are resolved, the source added.
Lukoil's force majeure declaration is approved under the terms of its contract and the company is seeking legal protection against penalties for failing to meet contractual obligations with the oil ministry, another Iraqi official said.
Lukoil in an email sent on Friday terminated the services of all non-Russian foreign staff, another source said, a manager at West Qurna-2. This means only Russian and Iraqi Lukoil staff remain.
On Monday, Bulgaria's Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov said authorities are conducting inspections and implementing security measures at Lukoil's Burgas oil refinery as the government looks to sustain its operation while preparing to seize control of the site.
Last week, Bulgaria adopted legal changes allowing it to take over the refinery and sell it to a new owner.
(Reporting by Aref Mohammed and Ahmed Rasheed; Writing by Ahmed Rasheed and Yousef Saba; editing by Joe Bavier and Jason Neely)
The Changqing shale oil field in Northwestern China has produced a cumulative 20 million tons of crude, Chinese media reported, noting the amount marks the start of a new phase in domestic oil production.
The amount, equal to some 146.6 million barrels, is notable mostly because of the challenging geology of China’s shale deposits, which has made it more difficult to tap the oil and gas resources in them. However, on Beijing’s orders, the industry has delivered, boosting domestic production of both oil and gas considerably, notably from shale basins.
The Changqing field accounted for over half of China’s shale oil production in 2024 and is currently producing at a rate of 10,000 tons daily, equal to some 73,300 barrels daily. This does not sound like a whole lot, but CNPC, which operates the field, is constantly working to boost its output, planning an annual average of over 3.5 million tons for this year. The amount would be equal to some 2.56 million barrels. The Changqing field has proven reserves of over 1 billion tons of crude oil.
Because of the complicated geology, it took years for the field to achieve a cumulative production of 10 million tons. More specifically, it took 12 years. Doubling that to 20 million tons, however, only took three years, the People’s Daily reported. Thanks to that production boost, China’s total shale oil output last year booked a 30% increase on the year to 6 million tons, or some 44 million barrels in total. The country’s total crude oil production hit 213 million tons in 2024.
CNPC is not the only one working on ramping up shale production. Such efforts are underway across basins. Earlier this year, China’s authorities certified over 1.4 billion barrels of new reserves at several shale plays operated by the state-owned major Sinopec.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
Pakistan and Qatar have agreed to divert 24 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes next year as domestic demand continues to weaken, particularly from the power sector.
The arrangement is based on a net proceeds differential formula, under which Pakistan will bear the loss if Qatar sells the diverted cargoes in the open market below the contracted price, according to a report submitted to the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC).
Policy guidelines will now be issued to the Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) so that the price impact can be passed on to LNG consumers.
Officials said Pakistan State Oil (PSO) confirmed that Qatar Energy has shown willingness to apply the net proceeds mechanism for 2026.
The agreement comes amid what officials describe as “demand destruction” in the gas sector, as power producers consume less RLNG due to lower electricity generation.
As a result, Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) has been facing surplus LNG volumes in the system. Last year, Pakistan worked with Eni to sell 11 cargoes in the open market and deferred five Qatar shipments to ease the pipeline pressure.
Documents show that earlier estimates suggested a surplus of about 177 cargoes between July 2025 and December 2031 – roughly 24 per year.
In August, the Petroleum Division sought ECC’s approval to negotiate adjustments with Qatar, presenting four options, including reducing supply temporarily, extending the contract period, and invoking the net proceeds clause.
A government delegation, including the petroleum minister and senior officials from PSO and SNGPL, held talks in Doha in late August 2025.
It was agreed that the net proceeds option would first be tested for 2026, and further steps would follow depending on outcomes. Discussions are expected to close by November 15.
In parallel, the same pricing mechanism will also apply to 21 cargoes from Eni (11 in 2026 and 10 in 2027) based on projected demand and supply conditions.
Diverting 2 cargoes from QatarEnergy, plus one cargo from Eni could save Pakistan up to $100 million per month in foreign exchange and reduce system congestion, allowing local exploration companies to increase domestic gas output.
Lower LNG imports are also expected to slow the accumulation of circular debt linked to PSO’s fuel supply chain.
11 November, 2025
Source: iranoilgas.com
Since 2019, Chinese state energy companies have invested around $468 billion in oil and gas exploration and production to rapidly boost domestic supply. China is pursuing a dual strategy: increasing local production while simultaneously building crude oil inventories (estimated 1.2–1.3 billion barrels) through imports and expanding storage capacity.
State-owned majors like Sinopec, PetroChina, and CNOOC have ramped up domestic output and infrastructure, including pipelines and offshore discoveries, to ensure a reliable energy supply amid global market volatility. Recent actions include temporarily suspending Russian oil purchases due to sanctions uncertainties.
China’s push for energy independence, supported by massive investments in wind, solar, and EVs, reduces reliance on imports and slows demand growth from international Big Oil companies, which have historically relied on China to drive global oil demand. Additionally, China is expanding natural gas production and pipeline projects like Power of Siberia 2, further enhancing energy self-sufficiency.
Overall, China is strategically combining domestic production, imports, and clean energy adoption to secure energy supply, manage demand growth, and reduce reliance on foreign oil.
The International Energy Agency has dropped its predictions that oil demand growth will peak in a matter of a few years. In the latest edition of its World Energy Outlook, the IEA said oil and gas demand could continue growing until 2050.
The IEA said that the coming years and decades will see a consistent increase in demand for energy across industry, households and, notably, information technology. Investments in data centers this year could reach $580 billion this year, the IEA’s secretary-general said, which exceeds the expected $540 billion in oil and gas industry investment.
As demand for energy grows, so will demand for the traditional sources of that energy. In a departure from its predictions of peak oil demand and peak natural gas demand before 2030, the IEA now expects oil demand to reach 113 million barrels by 2050, under the stated policies scenario that the outlet reintroduced this year after dropping it for five years to focus on aspirational scenarios focused on net zero.
The IEA also emphasized the return of energy security as priority number one for many governments, replacing climate change and emission reduction. “With energy security front and centre for many governments, their responses need to consider the synergies and trade-offs that can arise with other policy goals – on affordability, access, competitiveness and climate change,” Fatih Birol said.
Even with oil and gas demand on the rise over the long term, the IEA hailed what it called the Age of Electricity, estimating that electricity demand will grow much faster than overall energy use under all of the scenarios the IEA included in its forecasting. It then went on to predict that energy generation capacity will be growing in response to the demand surge and that solar PV will be the fastest-growing form of generation capacity. Nuclear, however, will also accelerate, with capacity growing by as much as a third by 2035.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-Drops-Peak-Oil-Predictions.html
The discount on Russian Urals crude compared to Brent reached a one-year high of 19.40 dollars per barrel at the ports of Primorsk and Novorossiysk on 10 November, according to Russian newspaper Kommersant, which cited industry sources. Urals serves as Russia’s benchmark crude, while Brent is the global reference.
Earlier this month, the discount hovered around 13-14 dollars per barrel. Kommersant attributed the sharp rise in the price gap to new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft. Analysts noted that the Urals-Brent spread had previously peaked at 31.90 dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2022 and 30 dollars per barrel in the first quarter of 2023, though oil prices were significantly higher at that time. Brent crude was priced at approximately USD 65.80 per tonne in early November.
Russian oil last traded at discounts exceeding USD 15 per barrel at the start of 2025, following U.S. sanctions on Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, and over 180 vessels. Analysts observed that it took roughly three weeks for the market to stabilize and for discounts to begin narrowing.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s main buyers, India and China, are reportedly cutting back on Russian crude amid the latest sanctions. Bloomberg reported that five major Indian refineries had not placed orders for Russian oil for December.
The sanctions have also prompted Türkiye’s largest refineries to increase purchases of non-Russian oil. Early November saw a sharp drop in Russia’s seaborne crude exports, the steepest decline since January 2024, as buyers reacted to the new U.S. measures by refraining from purchases.
The European Union is putting its energy security at risk by attempting to regulate every single molecule of energy products it will import in 2027, the year in which the EU will ban Russian natural gas.
In its net-zero push and targets to slash emissions, the EU in recent years has adopted a series of legislative measures to address the energy sustainability issue. But in doing so, it is undermining what’s become the most important energy issue, that of security, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the realization that Europe cannot rely on Russia for its gas supply.
The EU Regulation on reducing methane emissions in the energy sector, in effect from August 2024, and the proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) are placing additional barriers to LNG flows to Europe, according to gas producers and traders and the world’s biggest LNG exporters, the United States and Qatar.
Importers of LNG may have to divert cargoes away from the EU as of 2027 due to non-compliance with the legislation, which would reduce gas supply just as Europe will have phased out Russian gas flows.
The U.S., Qatar, and the gas industry call for immediate, drastic changes to the regulations—or the scrapping of these—if the EU wants to protect its energy security and continue importing LNG from its top suppliers.
Methane Regulation
The first-ever EU Regulation on reducing methane emissions in the energy sector came into effect on August 4, 2024.
For imports, the next milestone in the regulation is the monitoring, reporting, and verification requirement. Under this requirement, importers must demonstrate – as of January 2027 – that the crude oil, natural gas, or coal imported into the EU was produced in a jurisdiction with monitoring, reporting, and verification requirements equivalent to those applied domestically in the EU.
The industry argues that there cannot be verification of emissions from the various sources of gas in an LNG cargo—in the case of the U.S., it is gas produced from thousands of wells across the country, which flows to liquefaction and export facilities. Importers say they cannot verify every single molecule. It’s also unclear how the EU will verify the verification provided by importers.
“We have been complaining about many of these things basically since day one,” Andreas Guth, secretary-general of industry association Eurogas, told the Financial Times.
Eurogas members include supermajors Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP, which are also the world’s top LNG traders.
Importers of LNG into Europe “may decide to divert those cargoes to other markets outside of the EU” if the methane rules are not changed “immediately”, Guth told FT.
Eurogas and five other industry associations last month raised concerns about the so-called “tracing issue” in pinpointing the exact origin of energy molecules throughout their often long, often complex journey since production.
The general concepts to address the “tracing issue” proposed so far “may not adequately consider the current gas and crude market structures and, hence, are unlikely to be implementable without considerable cost and disruption to existing markets or are unlikely to be implementable in key producing countries that supply the EU market,” the associations said in a joint paper.
Another group, the International Gas Union (IGU), while supporting the objectives behind the methane rules, warned this summer that “closer cooperation between government and industry is necessary to ensure well intended regulatory actions are aligned with the industry's realities, and that they do not hinder countries’ ongoing efforts to achieve energy security through diversification.”
Sustainability Directive
The methane regulation is just one product of the EU’s bureaucratic machine. Another rule, the so-called Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which imposes penalties on companies in case of non-compliance, has drawn the ire of Qatar and the United States and supermajors including ExxonMobil.
Exxon would be forced to quit its business in Europe if the EU doesn’t materially ease or repeal the directive, CEO Darren Woods said last week.
“If we can't be a successful company in Europe, and more importantly, if they start to try to take their harmful legislation and enforce that all around the world where we do business, it becomes impossible to stay there,” Woods told Reuters.
Exxon’s top executive has told Bloomberg recently that the directive is “the worst piece of legislation I’ve seen since I’ve been in this job.”
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, told the EU last month in a letter that proposed alternative texts haven’t properly addressed the problematic issues in the directive.
“We have consistently and transparently communicated how the CSDDD, as it is worded today, poses a significant risk to the affordability and reliability of critical energy supplies for households and businesses across Europe and an existential threat to the future growth, competitiveness, and resilience of the EU's industrial economy,” the top energy officials of the U.S. and Qatar said.
They call on the EU to either repeal the CSDDD in its entirety or remove its most economically damaging provisions, including those on the extra-EU application of the directive, penalties, and civil liability of companies.
The U.S. National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) also slammed the EU directive, saying last month that “a sweeping new European Union regulation could saddle America’s manufacturers with costly red tape—undermining U.S. sovereignty and manufacturing growth here at home.”
NAM Managing Vice President of Policy, Charles Crain, commented, “Manufacturers appreciate the Trump administration standing up for our industry on the world stage, and we urge both American and European policymakers to protect U.S. companies from this costly and unworkable burden.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) CEO Elon Musk on Sunday acknowledged that achieving the market capitalization target for the EV giant and reaching the operational goals outlined as part of his $1 trillion compensation package is a "tall order."
Difficult Goals
In a post on X, Musk emphasized the difficulty of reaching these targets, which include specific earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) goals.
He said anyone in the public can join him for the ride by investing in the Tesla stock.
"There will inevitably be some bumps along the way, but, with a truly immense amount of work, I think these goals can be accomplished," he said in the post.
What Are The Targets?
To achieve the maximum compensation valued at nearly $1 trillion, Musk would have to achieve several targets for Tesla.
This includes the delivery of 20 million vehicles, a million Robotaxis in operation, selling a million Optimus humanoid robots, 10 million active Full Self-Driving (FSD) subscriptions, $400 billion in EBITDA, and Tesla's market capitalization reaching $8.5 trillion
Musk's Trillionaire Ambitions
Tesla shareholders approved a trillion-dollar pay package for Musk on Nov. 6, which received over 75% approval. This package is tied to ambitious goals that could make Musk the first-ever trillionaire if achieved.
During the same shareholder meeting, Musk announced plans to unveil the Roadster in 2026 and expand the company’s robotaxi program. These initiatives highlight Tesla’s commitment to innovation and growth, potentially increasing its appeal to investors.
The approval of Musk’s pay package has sparked diverse reactions. While some critics view it as an example of oligarchy, supporters see it as a decisive statement of confidence in Musk’s leadership. Michael Dell, CEO of Dell Technologies Inc., congratulated Musk, noting the strong support from Tesla investors.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
MORE than half of supply agreements between western carmakers and miners for battery metals have been delayed, amended or scrapped following a sharp fall in lithium prices, said the Financial Times on Tuesday.
General Motors, Tesla and Stellantis were amongst automakers that signed long-term contracts for metals including lithium and nickel from 2020, seeking to avoid potential shortages as electric vehicle production accelerated.
However, prices have tumbled from their peaks, making it difficult for miners to finance new projects and threatening efforts to establish alternatives to China-dominated supply chains, the newspaper said.
Analysis by the Financial Times of data compiled by Benchmark Mineral Intelligence showed that 17 of 32 deals for lithium, nickel and cobalt signed between 2020 and 2024 have been cancelled, renegotiated or postponed.
“Delays are reflective of the low price environment for lithium and other battery metals at the moment,” said Adam Webb, head of battery raw materials at Benchmark. “This makes it challenging to secure financing, leading to project development delays.”
Lithium carbonate traded at just under $10,000 per ton at the end of October, down from more than $70,000/t in 2023, according to Benchmark. A surge in Chinese production created a supply glut.
The surplus has reduced carmakers’ incentive to commit to long-term offtake agreements as they can secure materials elsewhere. Manufacturers have also scaled back EV targets due to lower profitability and concerns about Trump administration policies, said the Financial Times.
Ford agreed in 2022 to buy lithium from Ioneer’s Rhyolite Ridge project in Nevada from this year, but the mine remains unbuilt. South Africa’s Sibanye-Stillwater withdrew from a deal to acquire a 50% stake for just under $500m. Production is now expected to commence in 2028.
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/63087-carmakers-abandon-battery-metal-deals-after-price-slump/
The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) has granted planning approval for the construction of the Nordlicht 2 offshore wind farm.
This means that the second project in the Nordlicht cluster, consisting of two separate sites, Nordlicht 1 (with a capacity of around 980 megawatts) and Nordlicht 2 (with a capacity of around 630 megawatts), has now also been officially approved.
The Nordlicht 2 wind farm will be built north of Borkum in the west of the German EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). The project comprises a total of 44 wind turbines, each with a capacity of 15 megawatts, covering an area of around 44 square kilometres.
The electricity generated will be fed into the BorWin Delta converter platform, which is part of the NOR-6-3 grid connection system.
Offshore construction of Nordlicht 1 is scheduled to begin in 2026 and Nordlicht 2 one year later, with the wind farms due to go into operation in 2028. Once fully operational, electricity production for the cluster is expected to be around 6 terawatt hours (TWh) per year.
As part of Vattenfall’s sustainability efforts, both wind farms will be equipped with turbine towers made partly from low-emission steel, reducing their overall carbon footprint by 16 per cent. /1/
Vattenfall has signed contracts with Vestas for the delivery and installation of 112 V236-15.0 megawatts wind turbines for the Nordlicht 1 and 2 offshore wind farms.
Soybeans are pushing back higher on Friday, with contracts up 7 to 10 cents. There were another 36 deliveries issued overnight, taking the total to 1,506 for the month. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price is 8 3/4 cents lower at $10.42 ¾. Soymeal futures are back up on Friday, with contracts $3.50 to $4 higher in the front months, with Soy Oil futures are 25 to 30 points lower.
China reinstated eligibility for 3 US soybean export firms to ship beans to the country. Chinese customs data showed a total of 9.48 MMT of soybeans were imported during October, down from 12.87 MMT in September.
ANEC estimates the Brazilian soybean exports at 3.77 MMT for November, up 1.43 MMT from last year if realized. Trade ministry data showed official October exports at 6.73 MMT, up from 4.71 MMT from last year.
The Argentina soybean crop is estimated at 4.4% planted, which is down 4 percentage points from a year ago according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.
Nov 25 Soybeans are at $11.01 3/4, up 10 cents,
Nearby Cash is at $10.42 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents,
Jan 26 Soybeans are at $11.16, up 8 1/2 cents,
Mar 26 Soybeans are at $11.24 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/soybeans-posting-strength-close-week?time=1762553424
Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
KANSAS CITY, Mo. (RFD-TV) — Global fertilizer markets are testing new highs even as supply data suggest balance should be improving, says Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX.
India’s latest urea tender ended well short of expectations, securing just 430,000 tons against a two-million-ton goal. Low-priced bids drew little seller interest, and traders now expect another tender within weeks for as much as two million additional tons. The shortfall and India’s potential move toward annual guaranteed supply contracts have added fuel to a bullish market already lifted by steady European buying and limited forward sales.
China’s export window remains closed, though its July-to-September shipments of 2.8 million tons already far exceed 2024’s total. Russia’s exports are also robust, and Middle East output is stabilizing, yet global nitrogen prices continue to climb.
In North America, fall ammonia (NH₃) applications are strong on favorable weather and high corn acreage projections, while urea and UAN supplies stay tight amid downtime and low inventories.
Phosphate markets show similar tension. China’s export approvals expired on October 15 with no extension, likely cutting its annual shipments to under 4.5 million tons from a normal 8–10 million. Combined with weak North American production and import limits, that drop keeps prices firm. Strong U.S. yields are forcing farmers to replace more nutrients than expected, boosting demand just as supplies run thin. Linville cautions that, in today’s phosphate market, hours — not days — can determine whether a product is available.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Global nitrogen and phosphate prices remain high despite improved supply fundamentals, with limited Chinese exports and stronger fall applications tightening availability.
Tony St. James, RFD-TV Markets Expert
https://www.rfdtv.com/fertilizer-market-faces-tight-supplies-confusing-fundamentals
November 13, 2025
Insight Focus
Brazil faces another bumper grain harvest, but farmers remain cautious. Rising input costs and high interest rates, currently at 15%, are weighing on profit margins. The expanding adoption of domestically produced bio-inputs, however, could help ease some of these cost pressures.
Bumper Crop in Sight, But Challenges Persist
Favourable weather in Brazil’s Midwest has accelerated planting, with more than 34% of the soybean area already sown and 40% of the first-crop corn planted under equally favourable conditions — giving farmers reason to be optimistic.
At this pace, Brazil should harvest another bumper crop. The first survey by Conab forecasts grain production of 354.5 million tonnes in 2026 — almost 1% more than this year — a new record.
Source: Conab
For farmers, however, it is still too early to pop the champagne. Factors such as Brazil’s high interest rate of 15% per year, which makes credit more expensive, and the increase in input prices may threaten profit margins.
The price of urea, for example — one of the main components of fertilizers — has risen by about 23% since 2024. This year, the warning light began flashing in July, when urea prices began to rise again.
Source: Comex.
The conflict in the Middle East has impacted production in countries such as Iran and Egypt, which play a significant role in the global urea supply. In Egypt, production has fallen due to a shortage of natural gas — an essential raw material for fertilizer manufacturing — part of which the country imports from Israel.
In Iran, some plants have had their production reduced due to war-related risks. Maritime freight rates on routes passing through conflict zones have also increased, driving up costs.
In the short term, prices are not expected to change significantly. Geopolitical factors should continue to influence this scenario — and the fact that Russia is one of Brazil’s main suppliers of chemical fertilizers doesn’t help. With the country under sanctions because of the war in Ukraine, maritime insurance and other costs have risen considerably.
Source: Comex.
Bio-Inputs Gain Ground
To circumvent the high input costs — and to strengthen their sustainability efforts — farmers have been increasingly adopting domestically produced bio-inputs.
These products are developed from microorganisms such as bacteria, algae, yeasts, and plant extracts, and are used for nutrition and pest control in crops. One important advantage is that they can be produced on farms, with guidance from specialised professionals, optimising costs. Bio-inputs that help fix nitrogen, an essential nutrient for plants, increase the efficiency of nutrients present in the soil.
A study by CropLife, a non-profit organisation representing companies engaged in research and development of inputs for sustainable agriculture, shows that the use of bio-inputs grew by 13% in the 2024/25 crop season. Fertilizers and pesticides of biological origin, produced from microorganisms such as bacteria and fungi, as well as plant extracts, were used on approximately 156 million hectares.
Companies in the sector have been investing in launching new bio-inputs — which must be registered and approved by the Ministry of Agriculture before reaching the market. In recent years, the bureaucracy for registering new products has been reduced, making the process more agile.
Source: CropLife.
Public Spending Puts Pressure on the Economy
However, dependence on imported inputs is not expected to decline significantly in the short term. The economy also remains a concern. In this case, attention has been focused on the increase in public spending and its impact on key variables such as the interest rate.
Source: National Treasury of Brazil
Part of this public spending has been directed toward expanding social programs that put more money into circulation, stimulating consumption. To contain inflation, the Central Bank has maintained a high interest rate.
Source: Central Bank.
As a result, credit becomes expensive, impacting agribusiness — which accounts for a quarter of Brazil’s GDP — as well as other sectors of the economy. The cost of rural credit, for instance, has already increased.
Interest rates under the Plano Safra, a federal government program that finances agribusiness through credit granted by Banco do Brasil, have been readjusted for the next harvest, averaging between 8.5% and 14%. More than ever, sharp financial management and new productivity gains will be essential.
https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/brazils-record-grain-harvest-threatened-by-rising-costs/
Robert Kiyosaki anticipates a substantial increase in Bitcoin‘s (CRYPTO: BTC) value, setting a target of $250,000, despite cautioning about a potential “massive crash.”
In a post on X, Kiyosaki shared his investment goals for 2026, which include $27,000 for gold, $250,000 for Bitcoin, $100 for silver, and $60 for Ethereum.
His Ethereum forecast raised eyebrows, as the digital currency hasn’t seen double-digit values in a long time, sparking speculation that Kiyosaki might have intended to say $6,000 or $60,000.
Kiyosaki, a gold investor since 1971 when Nixon eliminated the dollar's gold backing, sees Bitcoin as the digital equivalent of gold and Ethereum as the driving force of the new financial network. In the post, he argues these assets follow what he calls the laws of money, not political cycles.
The author criticizes the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve for breaching these laws by creating “fake dollars” to finance government expenditure.
Despite market crashes, Kiyosaki continues to amass gold, silver, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, stating that true wealth is accumulated during periods of fear, not during times of euphoria.
According to Kiyosaki, the impending downturn will not obliterate the market but will expose those who possess money that cannot be printed.
Why It Matters: Kiyosaki’s predictions come at a time when cryptocurrencies are under intense scrutiny, with fluctuating prices and regulatory concerns. His views on Bitcoin and Ethereum underscore the growing acceptance of cryptocurrencies as a legitimate investment asset.
However, his warnings about a “massive crash” reflect the inherent risks and volatility associated with these digital assets.
His investment strategy of accumulating wealth during fear periods could serve as a guide for investors navigating the unpredictable cryptocurrency market.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robert-kiyosaki-predicts-bitcoin-soar-171629682.html
Today, November 10, the price of gold on world markets rose by more than 2%, reaching its highest level in two weeks, since October 27, according to Reuters.
Prices for gold and other precious metals are rising again
The spot price of gold is currently $4,082.17 per ounce (or $131.16 per gram), the highest level since October 27.
Gold futures for December delivery also rose 2% to $4,090.50 per ounce ($131.43 per gram).
Along with gold, other precious metals also rose in price: silver rose 3.4% to $49.95, platinum rose 1.7% to $1,571.10, and palladium rose 2.2% to $1,410.48 per ounce.
Weak dollar and fears for US economy
The 0.1% drop in the US dollar index made gold more affordable for foreign investors.
"There are concerns about the state of the US economy due to weak data, and the main focus is currently on the dollar index," says Jigar Trivedi, senior analyst at Reliance Securities.
According to him, demand for gold has increased due to prolonged trade tensions and geopolitical risks.
Last week's data show that the number of jobs in the US economy declined in October, with losses occurring in the government and retail sectors. At the same time, companies that are cutting costs and implementing artificial intelligence have sharply increased the number of announced layoffs.
Although the US Senate voted on Sunday to reopen government agencies, experts warn that economic growth in the fourth quarter could be negative if the situation repeats itself.
The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is currently estimated by the market at 65%. Analysts point out that gold usually benefits from low interest rates and economic instability.
Saxo Bank notes that over the next 12 months, gold could approach $5,000 per ounce and silver could reach $65, although analysts do not expect a return to record levels in the near future.
Gold prices
Since the beginning of the year, gold has risen in price by more than 65%, driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank purchases, and the process of de-dollarization.
On October 17, gold set a new historical record, exceeding $4,300 per ounce, amid problems with US banks and expectations of a Fed rate cut.
On October 20, the price of the metal reached a record high of $4,381.52 per ounce, after which it fell sharply.
https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/gold-prices-surge-to-two-week-high-reuters-1762782225.html
The Gold price rose by up to 3.7% or $150 to $4,150 per troy ounce since yesterday's market opening, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes.
Gold to reach $4,200 in the coming year
"Silver outperformed Gold, rising by more than 5%. The prices of platinum and palladium also rose significantly. This means that precious metals recorded the strongest price increases among the exchange-traded commodities we monitor. In the case of Gold, this is surprising, as the higher risk appetite due to hopes for a settlement of the US government shutdown, which has been going on for a good 40 days, could actually have caused headwinds."
"This fact was apparently more than offset by recent weaker US economic data, such as US consumer confidence falling to a 3½-year low, as this makes a further interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in December more likely. In addition, it is obviously expected that a significant slowdown in the US economy will become apparent once data publication resumes. This, in turn, could lead to more substantial Fed interest rate cuts."
"Our economists anticipate further interest rate cuts in the coming year beyond the extent expected by the markets, which argues in favor of a higher Gold price. We expect Gold to reach $4,200 per troy ounce in the coming year. Silver is then likely to trade at $50 per troy ounce, platinum at $1,700 per troy ounce, and palladium at $1,400 per troy ounce."
HARMONY Gold said it was reviewing its capital structure in a way that would match “its funding profile to its cash flow generation”.
Commenting in a production update for the first quarter of its 2026 financial year (to end-September), the South African miner said it would provide an update on its decisions at its interim results next year.
A review of “the structure of debt instruments” comes amid a record gold price which has seen miners in the sector report all-time increases in cash generation.
Barrick Mining, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields have unveiled new capital management strategies with special dividends, commitments to sizeable payouts of free cash flow and share buy-backs featuring highly.
For the first quarter, Harmony Gold registered a 53% increase in net cash to R17.1bn ($989m) from R11.1bn ($628m) as at 30 June 2025. Cash and available undrawn facilities rose 27% to R26.6bn over the same period.
Harmony has aggressively invested in an offshore diversification strategy. It recently concluded the $1bn acquistion of MAC Copper, an New York listed firm that operates the Australian-based CSA Copper Mine.
The company is also due to announce whether it will proceed with Eva Copper, another Australian asset it bought for $170m. Based on the previous owner’s feasibility study, pre-production capital of Eva Copper was forecast to be $597m.
Set against these projects, and the extension of its Mponeng mine in South Africa, Harmony runs a relatively conservative dividend policy of paying 20% of net free cash. The company has been criticised for this in the past.
Post the completion of the MAC Copper deal, Harmony said its net debt to Ebitda ratio remaine “comfortably below our internal threshold of 1x”.
For the first quarter, Harmony produced eight percent less gold year-on-year. At some 389,923 ounces this was, however, largely planned owing to lower expected grades at Moab Khotsong. An unplanned event was a decline in output at Doornkop owing to shaft water handling constraints. The issue had been resolved, said Harmony.
Despite this setback, the group said it was tracking above full year guidance, which it expected to meet, of between 1.4 to 1.5 million oz in production at an AISC of R1,150 000 to R1,220 000 per kilogram.
Story Highlights
Silvercorp Metals (TSE:SVM) has provided an announcement.
Silvercorp Metals Inc. announced a transition in its senior finance team with the retirement of Derek Liu as CFO and the appointment of Winnie Wang as Interim CFO. Lei Wu has also been appointed as Corporate Controller. These changes reflect the company’s commitment to strong financial governance and internal talent development as it pursues its strategic objectives.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SVM) stock is a Buy with a C$8.25 price target.
Spark’s Take on TSE:SVM Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:SVM is a Neutral.
Silvercorp Metals demonstrates strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, contributing to a solid overall score. However, valuation concerns and moderate technical indicators slightly offset these strengths.
More about Silvercorp Metals
Silvercorp Metals Inc. is a Canadian mining company that produces silver, gold, lead, and zinc. It has a long history of profitability and growth potential, focusing on generating free cash flow from long-life mines, organic growth through extensive drilling, mergers and acquisitions, and a commitment to responsible mining and ESG practices.
Average Trading Volume: 918,786
Technical Sentiment Signal: Buy
Current Market Cap: C$2.09B
Ballymore Resources says it has hit significant zones of massive sulphides in the first ever reverse circulation drilling program at the historical Torpy’s Crooked Creek high-grade silver mine.
One of two holes completed at the site, 30km south-east of Chillagoe, intersected two lenses of visually spectacular lead-zinc mineralisation, the company said.
Results included:
Sphalerite is the main ore of zinc and a key source of germanium, indium and thallium while galena is a lead ore and a key source of silver.
“Intersecting massive sulphides with our second hole at Torpy’s is a tremendous result, and a pleasing endorsement of the excellent geological work completed by the Ballymore team,” Ballymore managing director David A-Izzeddin said.
“With the significant lead and zinc results validating our high hopes, we now await the all-important silver assays and the completion of the drilling program over the next month.”
The Torpy’s silver mine operated between 1904 and 1914, averaging 435g/t silver and 15.3 per cent lead (based on available mine production records).
The site is part of Ballymore’s Ruddygore project.
Mr A-Izzeddin said further drilling was underway, with assay results expected in December.
Ballymore is also conducting a downhole EM survey of the completed drill holes to map potential extensions to the massive sulphide mineralisation.
“In addition, drilling is progressing at Seventy Mile Mount, adjacent to the historic Mount Leyshon gold mine, south of Charters Towers,” Mr A-Izzeddin said.
“Diamond drill hole BSMDD006 has progressed to 140m depth and has encountered broad zones of hydrothermal breccia with associated sulphide mineralisation. We eagerly await results for both exciting drilling programs.”
https://industryqld.com.au/torpys-drill-work-turns-up-massive-sulphide-system/
Surging Solar and EV Demand Could Propel Silver Toward Multi-Decade Highs
November 11, 2025
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Silver is caught between two powerful forces; booming industrial use and a flood of financial demand. Both are squeezing supply and keeping prices on edge.
I’ve been watching silver for years, and what’s happening right now feels different. For once, the metal isn’t moving just on hype or short-term speculation. It’s running on a real supply problem.
Global mine production is stuck around 820 million ounces a year, while total demand is estimated to exceed 1.24 billion ounces in 2025. That gap is not a blip; it’s the largest sustained deficit the market has seen in over a decade.
Based on our Silver price prediction, this demand might push prices to $60 in a year or two.
Silver Price Prediction: Is $60 Possible?
Two things will likely push Silver to $55-$60:
Industrial Demand: Solar And Technology Are Soaking Up Supply
The solar sector is now the biggest consumer of silver, and that’s reshaping the market. Every solar panel needs silver paste for its conductive properties, and the global push for renewable energy keeps installations rising fast.
Some forecasts show photovoltaic silver demand reaching roughly 273 million ounces by 2030, a huge jump from current levels.
What makes this more serious is that technology demand (electronics, EVs, medical devices) is also climbing. Even small increases in each category add up to a major pull on total supply. This steady, predictable demand is what makes silver’s rally more sustainable than short-term speculation.
Financial Momentum: ETFs And Investor Interest Add More Fuel
Silver-backed ETFs have seen heavy inflows this year, pulling physical bars out of circulation. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and similar funds added over $1 billion in net inflows recently, tightening supply even further.
This is where things can get volatile. When investors chase momentum during a physical shortage, prices can spike quickly. The market starts trading more like a squeeze than a steady rally, and that’s when retail traders often jump in late.
Supply Constraints And Price Outlook
Mine supply isn’t catching up, and recycling can only do so much. If Silver industrial demand stays strong and ETF inflows keep rising, silver could test $55–$60 within the next year or two.
For that to happen, we’d need real yields to stay low, and the U.S. dollar not to strengthen too much.
I believe any dip below $30 still looks attractive for long-term buyers. It’s not about chasing spikes, but positioning early before deficits tighten further.
Conclusion
Silver’s story today is both industrial and financial, and that’s what makes it unique. The deficit is real, investor interest is strong, and supply growth is limited. This combination gives silver one of the most compelling risk-reward profiles in the metals market right now.
If you’re watching the trend, focus on three things: solar installation data, ETF flows, and physical inventories. Those tell you when momentum is building, and when it’s time to move.
The United States has crossed a critical fiscal "Rubicon" that signals the "end of the empire" and is now setting the stage for a "Bretton Woods 2.0" monetary reset where gold will be officially "written up" to help pay down sovereign debt.
That is the stark forecast from Dr. James Thorne, a Ph.D. in economics and Chief Market Strategist at Wellington Altus Private Wealth.
In a wide-ranging interview with Kitco News on Monday, Thorne argued that the U.S. has reached a point of no return, exemplified by the ongoing 40-day government shutdown and a historic fiscal crisis.
"Interest payments... on the debt in the United States... was greater... [than] the expenditure on the military, and that is typically the Rubicon," Thorne stated. "When you cross, that signifies the end of the empire... We're at this point where the system has to be recalibrated."
According to Thorne, that recalibration will be a deliberate reflation policy to manage the "excessive level of debt... at Napoleonic war levels."
He believes the solution, already being hinted at by policymakers, will be a formal re-pricing of assets - including gold - on the government's balance sheet.
"...why wouldn't they write up the assets? ... Why shouldn't they write up the assets and use that to basically pay down the debt?" Thorne asked. "People [are going to] recognize the fact that we are writing Brenton Woods's 2.0... And gold will be a key contributor."
The "S&P 7,500" Supercycle
Despite the sovereign debt crisis, Thorne is exceptionally bullish on markets, forecasting the S&P 500 will reach "somewhere between 74 to 75 hundred... by the spring of 2026."
He argues that the market is in the "early innings" of the "largest CapEx supercycle in modern history," driven by a global arms race for Artificial Intelligence (AI), data centers, and the energy grid.
When asked about bubble fears and criticism from investors like Michael Burry, Thorne dismissed them as a misunderstanding of how new technology waves are priced.
"We are living in a complete and total void of information where we don't know what the intrinsic value is of an asset... a railroad, a canal, AI, a server," he said, citing the "Market for Lemons" economic theory. "What happens is... the individual... that has the best story... that captures the imagination of the market wins."
"We are not [going to] know what the intrinsic value of AI is for decades," he added. "It will not be the last time we hear about this narrative... it just goes with the normal course of business."
The "Lost Decade" and the Fed "Can't Take High Rates"
While Thorne is bullish through 2031—driven by a 100% tax deduction on CapEx spending—he warned that the super-cycle will end in a crash, followed by a "lost decade" for investors.
He offered a hypothetical: "Let's say the S&P peaks at 15,000 in 2031, and doesn't achieve that level until 2041... a lost decade in terms of asset class returns."
Until then, Thorne stated that "valuations will matter. I just think it's not [going to] be until... the middle of the next decade."
The fuel for this, he said, will be a sharp reversal by the Federal Reserve. He dismissed concerns about "higher for longer" interest rates, arguing the system simply cannot handle them.
"I know the central bankers think... that we can take high rates. We can't. We can't take high rates," Thorne said, forecasting the Fed will be forced to cut its overnight rate "below 2.75, somewhere in the low two area."
Gold, Gold Stocks, and the Bitcoin Breakout
For hard asset investors, Thorne's core message was that the public has finally "lost trust" in the fiat system, making gold the primary "go-to trade."
"People are fed up with the... fiat currency. That's why gold is going," Thorne said. "But I think the more profound question there is they're letting it run, and I think they want it to happen. That's my simple interpretation."
He confirmed his long-term target for gold remains between "$5,000 short term and maybe close to $8,000 by the end of the decade," but warned it "has run too far, too fast" and will likely "consolidate between 4,000 [and] 4,400 for a couple of months."
He issued a stunning warning, however, for gold stock investors:
"So the big money in this run has been made," Thorne stated.
He clarified that the "easy money" from the metal's price surge is over, and the focus now shifts to operational risk.
"Now these mining companies have to execute... because [the] gold run from 2000 to 4,000 is over," he said. "The tough part for them is... mining is a very difficult business... to model with [an] Excel spreadsheet... Right. You know, something could happen, a mine could flood, you know, and everybody will freak out and hammer the... gold stocks."
Thorne concluded investors must now make a critical choice: "...what you should be doing now is just picking at the physical and not... the equities that are highly levered to the next move up. I think that's an interesting question."
He argued that as trust is lost, "gold is the go-to trade," and "eventually... once it gets a little bit more mature... Bitcoin" will follow.
He identified Bitcoin as being in a "very, very frustrating consolidating pattern" and issued an urgent warning for those waiting on the sidelines:
"That thing breaks out... it's gone. In a New York minute, it's gone and you won't be able to get in."
Stellantis announced Friday that it will end its supply deal with Australia’s Alliance Nickel Ltd. for battery-grade nickel and cobalt from the company’s NiWest project in Western Australia, effective December 3. The decision comes after delays and poor market conditions stalled progress on the mine’s development. (Source: Reuters)
Signed in 2023, the agreement had Stellantis committing to buy 170,000 tons of nickel sulphate and 12,000 tons of cobalt sulphate over five years, representing roughly 40% of NiWest’s planned output. Stellantis also acquired an 11.5% stake in Alliance Nickel as part of the deal.
Alliance said it missed key milestones due to financing challenges caused by weak nickel prices, which have remained under sustained pressure for nearly two years amid global oversupply and softer EV demand. Managing Director Paul Kopejtka said both sides may revisit the agreement later:
“This presents an opportunity for both sides to negotiate on a new agreement more reflective of the revised project timeline and forward strategy.”
Shares of Alliance fell as much as 6.4% after the announcement.
It’s the second supply deal Stellantis has canceled in Australia this week, following the automaker’s withdrawal from a graphite-supply pact with Novonix Ltd. over product-specification differences.
The move underscores how volatile raw-material markets have complicated automakers’ efforts to secure reliable EV battery supplies.
https://moparinsiders.com/stellantis-ends-nickel-cobalt-deal-with-alliance-nickel/
Saudi Arabian Mining Company Ma’aden posted a stellar financial performance for the nine-month period ending 30 September 2025, with revenue reaching SAR 27.9 billion (US$7.44 billion) — a year-on-year increase of 24 % from SAR 22.6 billion in the same period last year. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose by 30 % to SAR 11.5 billion (US$3.04 billion), and net profit surged 91 % to SAR 5.7 billion (US$1.51 billion).
Ma’aden attributes this growth to a combination of higher volumes in its phosphate- and aluminium-business units and a stronger pricing environment for its products. The phosphate division produced near-record levels of DAP (diammonium phosphate) and ammonia, while aluminium unit sales, especially FRP (flat-rolled products), benefited from improved global pricing. Further, the company reports that lower financing costs and lower tax/zakat burdens also contributed to the profit jump.
Operationally, Ma’aden indicated the phosphate business had raised realised DAP prices significantly (around +23% y/y in 9M) while growing volumes by roughly 10%. In aluminium, while primary aluminium volumes were steady, sales of FRP rose by about 15% y/y and average realised aluminium prices improved around 11%. The gold and base-metals segment also delivered solid gains driven by higher realised gold prices (up about 41% y/y) despite some volume softness.
From a strategic-execution viewpoint, the company has made moves that reinforce these gains. For example, Ma’aden completed the acquisition of Alcoa’s 25.1% interest in its aluminium business on 1 July 2025, gaining full ownership of key assets. Additionally, its large expansion project “Phosphate 3 Phase 1” is reported to be 50% complete and on schedule for 2027 production.
This performance indicates that Ma’aden is benefitting from a favourable commodity environment: strong global demand for fertilizers, tight supply for ammonia and phosphate raw materials, and improved aluminium pricing are currently driving earnings. Second, the company’s capacity- and ownership-expansion investments are beginning to pay off, giving it increased scale and margin leverage. Third, by improving its cash generation (operating cash flow of SAR 8.0 billion; cash balance at SAR 10.9 billion) and reducing net debt/EBITDA to 1.5x (from 1.8x at end-2024) that suggests stronger financial discipline and flexibility.
In conclusion, Ma’aden’s nine-month results demonstrate robust growth driven by higher volumes, stronger product pricing and effective strategic execution. The company appears well positioned to meet its 2025 targets “at pace,” as CEO Bob Wilt put it. Provided the favourable market backdrop continues and execution remains smooth, Ma’aden could further strengthen its role in Saudi Arabia’s mining-growth story under Vision 2030. For investors and stakeholders, the key indicators to monitor from here will be whether pricing stays strong, project execution remains on-track, and global demand for fertilizers and aluminium sustains its momentum.
According to Mysteel's price assessment, the national average spot price for metallurgical-grade alumina with purity above 98.6 per cent dipped by RMB 4 per tonne (USD 0.6 per tonne) on the day last Friday to stand at RMB 2,873 per tonne, including 13per cent VAT.
By region, assessed prices for the same grade in Shandong, Shanxi, and the Guizhou provinces and in the Guangxi autonomous region fell by another RMB 5 per tonne from Thursday to range between RMB 2,780 and RMB 2,960 per tonne, while those in Henan province held steady at RMB 2,855 per tonne.
As alumina inventories climbed further across the country, alumina producers and traders with weaker bargaining power continued to trim offers to reduce their stockpiles, dragging spot alumina prices lower, according to market watchers. Moreover, the ongoing price weakness caused some producers to begin losing money on sales, prompting several to curtail output last week to avoid further negative margins.
Meanwhile, many primary aluminium smelters refrained from purchasing on the last working day of the week, having already secured sufficient quantities of the raw material earlier. As a result, trading activity in the spot market was minimal on November 7, with Mysteel not hearing of any deals being concluded.
In contrast, on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, domestic alumina futures prices rebounded, with the most-traded January 2026 alumina contract closing Friday's nighttime trading session 0.9 per cent higher at RMB 2,805 per tonne as of 1 a.m. last Saturday, extending a 0.11per cent gain seen at the close of Friday's daytime trading.
Note: This news is published under a content and exchange agreement with Mysteel
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VANCOUVER, BC, Nov. 10, 2025 /CNW/ - Copper Giant Resources Corp. ("Copper Giant" or the "Company") (TSXV: CGNT) (OTCQB: LBCMF) is pleased to announce the closing of its previously announced "best efforts" public offering (the "Offering") for gross proceeds of C$5,750,276, which includes the full exercise of the Agents' (as defined herein) over-allotment option. Under the Offering, the Company sold 20,536,700 units of the Company (each, a "Unit") at a price of C$0.28 per Unit (the "Offering Price"). Red Cloud Securities Inc. ("Red Cloud"), as lead agent and sole bookrunner, and Research Capital Corporation (collectively with Red Cloud, the "Agents") acted as agents in connection with the Offering.
COPPER GIANT RESOURCES CORP. LOGO (CNW Group/COPPER GIANT RESOURCES CORP.)
Each Unit consists of one common share in the capital of the Company and one common share purchase warrant (each, a "Warrant"). Each Warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share in the capital of the Company at a price of C$0.40 at any time on or before November 10, 2028.
The net proceeds from the Offering will be used by the Company for the exploration and advancement of the Company's Mocoa copper-molybdenum project in southern Colombia as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes.
The Offering was completed pursuant to a prospectus supplement (the "Supplement") filed in each of the provinces and territories of Canada (except Quebec) and dated November 3, 2025 that supplemented the Company's short form base shelf prospectus dated November 29, 2024 (the "Shelf Prospectus"). The Offering remains subject to the final approval of the TSX Venture Exchange (the "TSXV").
In consideration for their services in connection with the Offering, the Agents received a total cash commission of C$328,216.56 and were issued 1,172,202 non-transferable warrants of the Company (the "Broker Warrants"). Each Broker Warrant entitles the holder thereof to purchase one common share in the capital of the Company at a price of C$0.40 at any time on or before November 10, 2028.
This press release is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the securities in the United States or in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to qualification or registration under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The securities being offered have not been, nor will they be, registered under the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and such securities may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons absent registration or an applicable exemption from U.S. registration requirements and applicable U.S. state securities laws.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/copper-giant-announces-closing-public-144500580.html
Vedanta Resources announced on November 6 the creation of CopperTech Metals Inc., a new subsidiary responsible for operating its Konkola copper mine in Zambia. As part of this restructuring, the company said it will invest an additional US$1.5 billion to increase production to 300,000 tons by 2031. The move aligns with the broader wave of growth investments in Zambia’s copper industry in recent years.
Zambia aims to raise national copper output to 3 million tons by 2031, up from 821,670 tons in 2024. Several mining companies have announced expansion projects to support this goal. Canada’s Barrick Mining plans to double output at its Lumwana mine through a US$2 billion investment, while China’s JCHX intends to inject US$300 million to extend the life of its Lubambe mine.
At Konkola, Vedanta’s planned US$1.5 billion will add to the US$3 billion already invested in recent years. These investments are intended to boost production capacity and support Zambia’s long-term growth strategy at a time when global copper demand is rising due to the energy transition and the expansion of the artificial intelligence sector.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the copper supply deficit could reach 30% by 2035. Combined with recent supply chain disruptions, these trends position new and expanded mines as key contributors to future global supply, provided the announced investments materialise.
Vedanta has not yet detailed how it plans to finance the new Konkola investment, even as it works to reduce debt and strengthen its balance sheet. For now, the company expects 140,000 tons of copper output from Konkola in its 2026 fiscal year. Nationally, Zambia targets 1 million tons of production this year.
Director General (Dirjen) Mineral and Coal ESDM Tri Winarno. (Photo: Maria Trisnawati/VOI)
JAKARTA - The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has signaled that it will cut nickel production by 2026 following a move by the Ministry of Industry to limit the issuance of investment permits and Industrial Business Permits (IUI) for new nickel smelters.
Director General (Dirjen) of Mineral and Coal ESDM Tri Winarno said his party also plans to adjust the production target and production quota for nickel 2026.
"If the moratorium is for that, because we are oversupply for that, we will support it," Tri said when met at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources Building, Monday, November 10.
Just so you know, the nickel production plan set this year in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is set at 319 million tons.
Thus, the 2026 production plan will be below 319 million tons.
"Anyway, we evaluate the higher. It's over 300 thousand, it could be below," Tri said.
Tri also emphasized that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources only oversees smelters that are integrated with mining that have a Mining Business Permit (IUP).
Meanwhile, the IUI-holder stand-only smelter is handled by the Ministry of Industry.
Tri also said that if the nickel smelter of the IUP holding company was small enough, he estimated that there were only about 7 nickel companies that had smelters integrated with mining.
However, Tri pushed for restrictions on the issuance of a new nickel smelter IUI that plans to produce intermediate products.
Because, he said, this could accelerate the increase in downstreaming to products that were more downstream.
"If I'm not mistaken, there are only seven, that's some that don't work. From us, the integration is limited," Tri said.
The English, Chinese, Japanese, Arabic, and French versions are automatically generated by the AI. So there may still be inaccuracies in translating, please always see Indonesian as our main language. (system supported by DigitalSiber.id)
Barrick Mining boosted copper production at its Lumwana mine in Zambia by 41% to 109,000 tonnes in the first nine months of 2025, compared with 77,000 tonnes a year earlier. The company reported the figures in its third-quarter financial results released on November 10.
The output growth reflects a 27% year-on-year rise in third-quarter production volumes, driven by higher ore grades and improved recovery rates. With 109,000 tonnes already produced by September, Lumwana has reached 88% of its 2024 full-year total of 123,000 tonnes.
Barrick expects Lumwana to deliver between 125,000 and 155,000 tonnes of copper in 2025. The company aims to exceed 2024 levels as it ramps up operations under its long-term expansion plan.
The mining giant is investing $2 billion to construct a new processing facility at Lumwana, designed to increase annual output to 240,000 tonnes by 2028. The project is part of Barrick’s strategy to strengthen its copper portfolio amid rising global demand for the metal, driven by the energy transition and infrastructure needs.
Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, plans to raise national output to 3 million tonnes by 2031. The government targets 1 million tonnes in 2025, compared with 820,670 tonnes produced in 2024.
This article was initially published in French by Aurel Sèdjro Houenou
Adapted in English by Ange Jason Quenum
The United States Geological Survey has expanded its list of critical minerals to include precious and conductive metals.
On Nov. 7, the scientific government agency revealed that silver and copper now have the same classification as tungsten, antimony, lithium and other commodities of national security importance.
Additionally, uranium, metallurgical coal, lead, rhenium, potash, silicon, boron and phosphate have been added. There are a total of 60 now, up from 50 on the last version of the list released in 2022.
The news was well received by junior mining companies in the silver and copper sectors. They may attract an increasing rate of government and investor intrigue as a result.
“For the first time, silver is recognized as having growing importance to U.S. economic and national security,” commented Canadian precious metal project developer Apollo Silver Corp (CVE: APGO) (OTCMKTS: APGOF) (FRA: 6ZF).
Apollo has silver mining properties in California, Arizona and Mexico. The metal has been in heightened demand for its applications in the expanding solar photovoltaic manufacturing sector and its high spot price is reflected accordingly.
“This inclusion signals enhanced government focus on securing domestic supply chains through enhanced permitting, subsidies, and strategic stockpiling initiatives,” Apollo added.
Moreover, Alaska and Montana copper-gold asset developer American Pacific Mining Corp (CNSX: USGD) (OTCMKTS: USGDF) (FRA: 1QC) was quick to voice its enthusiasm about the development.
“The move is expected to bolster government investment and streamline permitting of copper projects located in the U.S. that have the potential to buttress the domestic critical metals supply chain,” the company said.
The USGS is required to update its critical minerals list every three years in accordance with policy shifts, supply fluctuations and economic volatility. Currently the American government is particularly concerned with the domestic antimony shortage. This concern has prompted agencies operating under the Trump Administration to invest millions in Sb projects situated in Idaho, Alaska and Montana.
Junior mining companies in the antimony prospecting industry have also been vocal about the importance of this critical mineral for national security in the U.S. They hope to attract interest from the Department of Defense and other government bodies while helping to curb supply chain vulnerabilities.
“There is a clear commitment from the United States to advance high-quality, domestic, mineral projects,” said Brandon Bonifacio, CEO of antimony and gold prospector NevGold Corp (CVE: NAU) (OTCMKTS: NAUFF) (FRA: 5E50), in September.
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https://mugglehead.com/silver-and-copper-now-considered-critical-minerals-in-u-s/
The tungsten market has entered a critical phase, with significantly increased sensitivity, sluggish trading activity, and a stalemate between supply and demand. On the raw material side, the willingness to continue chasing price increases is wavering, with miners maintaining firm prices but increasing their willingness to sell. On the consumer side, the strategy of purchasing based on rigid demand continues, and powder prices may see further increases, but downstream acceptance remains weak. The tungsten scrap market appears stable on the surface but is declining due to increased profit-taking.
In the cobalt market, the Democratic Republic of Congo suspended a major copper-cobalt mine project in Kolwezi, owned by Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary, citing a leak and environmental pollution incident, exacerbating concerns about a cobalt supply shortage. It is worth noting that Indonesia's resource development and utilization levels are continuously improving, and it is expected to gradually fill the supply gap in the international market.
As of press time,
65% wolframite concentrate is priced at RMB 317,000/ton, up 121.7% from the beginning of the year.
65% scheelite concentrate is priced at RMB 316,000/ton, up 122.5% from the beginning of the year.
Ammonium paratungstate (APT) price is reported at RMB 470,000/ton, up 122.8% from the beginning of the year.
European APT price is reported at USD 647.5-700/mtu (equivalent to RMB 408,000-441,000/ton), up 104.2% from the beginning of the year.
Tungsten powder price is reported at RMB 740/kg, up 134.2% from the beginning of the year.
Tungsten carbide powder price is reported at RMB 720/kg, up 131.5% from the beginning of the year.
Cobalt powder price is reported at RMB 510/kg, up 200% from the beginning of the year.
70% ferrotungsten is reported at RMB 435,000/ton, up 102.3% from the beginning of the year.
European ferrotungsten is reported at USD 92-94/kg W (equivalent to RMB 458,000-468,000/ton), up 111.4% from the beginning of the year.
Scrap tungsten rod price is reported at RMB 470/kg, up 113.6% from the beginning of the year.
The price of scrap tungsten drill bits is reported at RMB 437/kg, up 91.7% from the beginning of the year.
Voestalpine (OTCMKTS:VLPNY) is expected to issue its results before the market opens on Wednesday, November 12th. Analysts expect the company to announce earnings of $0.12 per share for the quarter.
Voestalpine Price Performance
Shares of OTCMKTS VLPNY opened at $6.96 on Monday. The stock has a market capitalization of $5.97 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.80 and a beta of 1.39. Voestalpine has a 52 week low of $3.34 and a 52 week high of $7.89. The firm has a 50-day moving average price of $6.89 and a 200 day moving average price of $5.96. The company has a quick ratio of 0.53, a current ratio of 1.35 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19.
Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth
Separately, Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft reiterated a “buy” rating on shares of Voestalpine in a research report on Wednesday, August 27th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has an average rating of “Hold”.
About Voestalpine
Voestalpine AG processes, develops, manufactures, and sells steel products in Austria, European Union, and internationally. The company operates through five segments: Steel, High Performance Metals, Metal Engineering, Metal Forming, and Other. The Steel division produces hot and cold-rolled steel strips, as well as electrogalvanized, hot-dip galvanized, and organically coated steel strips; and heavy plates for the energy sector, as well as turbine casings for automotive, white goods/consumer goods, building/construction, energy, mechanical engineering, and others.
Asian flat and long steel markets will see weak demand in the fourth quarter, with export volumes likely to decline after a strong start to the year. This is the forecast from S&P Global.
Domestic demand in China is expected to weaken in winter due to the seasonal slowdown in construction and weather conditions. Therefore, sources in this market suggest that exports will remain a key factor in easing pressure on inventories.
At the same time, China’s efforts to restructure the steel industry through consolidation and curbing excessive competition have had limited impact.
Many market participants expect that high steel production in the country, where mills are ramping up production in the last months of the year amid good profitability, combined with low demand due to geopolitical tensions and economic slowdown, will limit further growth in supply.
S&P Global estimates that China’s steel exports will remain at around 110 million tons for the year.
The Asian hot-rolled coil market will face continued negative effects in the fourth quarter—the current wave of protectionist measures, especially in Southeast Asia, will be broader than in 2015, traders believe. According to Chinese market participants, this pressure has prompted major mills to reduce their offers.
At the same time, India introduced a 12% safeguard duty on flat steel imports in April and proposed anti-dumping measures on Vietnamese hot-rolled steel. In April-September, this led to a 29.4% year-on-year decline in steel imports into the country.
Asian prices for ferrous scrap in the fourth quarter are also likely to remain under pressure amid weak demand after a prolonged decline in the third quarter, with only a brief recovery observed in July-August.
It should be noted that Chinese steel companies increased steel exports by 6.6% in January-October 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, to 97.74 million tons.
https://gmk.center/en/news/asian-steel-market-to-remain-under-pressure-in-q4-s-p-global/amp/
Two major American steel companies, Nucor and Gerdau Long Steel North America, have announced another increase in rolled steel prices. This is stated in letters to customers.
In particular, Nucor Bar Group is increasing the cost of all types of rebar by $30 per short ton for new orders received after November 7. Confirmed orders placed before the end of that day will remain at the old prices if they are shipped before November 21. The company emphasized that unconfirmed offers may be revised.
Gerdau Long Steel North America has introduced a similar increase, also of $30 per short ton, for orders placed after the end of the working day on November 7. The price protection will apply to confirmed deals if shipment is made before November 23. Gerdau said it will continue to monitor the market situation in order to remain competitive.
According to Kallanish estimates, last week, #4 rebar in 20-foot bars rose in price to $870-910 per short ton on the US market.
At the same time, Nucor raised its weekly spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled coil (HRC) for the third time in a row. As of November 11, the base price is $895/t, and at the California Steel Industries plant, it is $950/t. In previous weeks, the company had already raised prices twice, first by $10 and then by $5/t.
The market range for HRC in the US is currently $825-865 per short ton, and spot order delivery times remain within 3-5 weeks.
It should be recalled that at the end of September and in October, the global hot-rolled coil market showed opposite trends in the main regions.
European prices rose under the influence of expected trade protection measures. The US saw prolonged stability amid weak demand, while China again lowered its prices due to excess inventories and uncertainty about the recovery of the industry.
German Chancellor Merz declared strong government support for EU plans to increase tariffs on foreign steel, particularly targeting cheap imports mainly from China. Merz described the proposed measures as a step in the right direction. The EU is considering raising import levies to 50% and sharply reducing duty-free import quotas, with Merz committed to championing these regulations in Brussels. Germany's domestic producers, Europe's largest, face existential challenges due to subsidized Chinese steel flooding markets and persistently high energy costs, with the policy change expected to create effective protection for the struggling sector.
A decade after the landmark Paris Agreement, renewable energy has surpassed coal to become the world’s leading source of electricity.
According to the climate think tank Ember, which draws on data from 88 countries representing 93% of global energy consumption, solar and wind growth outpaced rising electricity demand for the first time on record.
Solar expansion in particular drove the surge in renewables. Over the past 50 years, the cost of solar has dropped by 99.9%, allowing countries with costly or unreliable grid electricity to develop large-scale solar projects within a single year. In the first half of 2025, solar output rose nearly a third compared with the same period last year, meeting 83% of the increase in electricity demand. Overall, renewables (including hydro, bioenergy, and others) accounted for 34.3% of global electricity generation, while coal—which remains the world’s largest individual source of energy—fell to 33.1%.
Ember’s findings came with a clear message for the West, too: it was developing countries like China and India that were primarily responsible for the surge in renewables. China, especially, emerged as the clear frontrunner: clean generation outpaced its 4.2% demand growth, leading to a 2% drop in its use of fossil fuels. India, although it experienced slower electricity demand growth of just 1.3%, also added significant solar and wind capacity, leading to a 3.6% decline in fossil fuel use.
In contrast, the US and the EU saw their fossil fuel generation rise. In the US, clean sources did not keep pace with robust demand growth. Exacerbated by a gas-to-coal switch driven by higher gas prices, fossil fuels filled this gap, increasing emissions by 4.3%. Similarly, in the EU, despite strong solar growth, poor wind conditions led to significant shortfalls in wind output, and severe droughts also contributed to a decline in hydropower production. The bloc compensated by increasing gas and coal generation, leading to a 4.8% climb. The divide is expected to widen, particularly in the US, where clean energy subsidies were rolled back. Meanwhile, solar and wind, Embers notes, keep driving modernization and growth in both low-income countries and some of the world’s most powerful emerging economies.
https://gfmag.com/sustainable-finance/coal-takes-a-back-seat/
November 10, 2025 at 14:34 PM EST
The global iron ore market faced significant headwinds in late 2024, as persistent demand concerns from China, the world's largest consumer, exerted considerable pressure on prices and market sentiment. This period was characterized by declining prices, elevated inventories, and a cautious outlook on China's economic recovery, sending immediate ripples through global commodity discussions. From the vantage point of November 2025, these events are understood not as mere cyclical adjustments but as a critical juncture, highlighting deeper, more structural transformations within the global steel and mining industries.
The downturn in late 2024 served as a stark reminder of China's pivotal, yet increasingly complex, role in global commodity markets. The struggles within China's property sector, coupled with broader economic rebalancing efforts, created a challenging environment for iron ore producers worldwide. The implications extended beyond immediate price movements, signaling a fundamental shift in market dynamics and prompting a reassessment of long-term strategies across the industry.
Detailed Market Turmoil and Key Influences in Late 2024
The iron ore market in late 2024 experienced considerable strain, marked by a confluence of factors including declining prices, surging inventories in China, and a weakening demand predominantly driven by China's struggling property sector. This period witnessed a notable shift in market dynamics, leading to widespread production cuts in the steel industry and a cautious outlook among key stakeholders.
Iron ore prices trended lower for much of 2024, with late 2024 showing continued weakness despite some temporary rebounds. The Platts Iron Ore Index (IODEX) averaged $99.7/dry metric ton (dmt) CFR North China in Q3 2024, falling 10.85% quarter-on-quarter and reaching a 23-month low of $89.35/dmt on September 23. By December 2024, iron ore futures had ended the year with a drastic decline of more than 15%. The most-traded May iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed at 779 yuan ($106.73) per metric ton on December 31, 2024, having fallen 16% year-to-date. Similarly, the benchmark February iron ore on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) was at $100.4 a ton, marking an 18.5% slide year-to-date. Goldman Sachs had even revised down their Q4 2024 iron ore price forecast to $85/mt from an earlier average of $100/mt due to global oversupply and lower demand from China.
Compounding the price pressure, Chinese port inventories of iron ore accumulated significantly. By the end of December 2024, inventories at Chinese ports rose by 28% year-on-year to 146.85 million tons. Earlier, as of August 29, 2024, imported iron ore stockpiles at China's 45 largest ports had surged to 153.7 million tons, the highest level since April 2022. This surge was attributed to increased vessel cargo unloading and slower ore outflows to end-users, creating a paradox where reduced global shipments failed to prevent inventory buildup.
The primary driver of this market pressure was the persistent weakness in China's property sector, which accounts for an estimated 30-40% of the country's steel demand. New home starts continued to fall sharply, down 22% in the year to September 2024. Chinese crude steel output also fell by 2.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2024. While Beijing introduced various stimulus measures in late 2024, including policy rate cuts and eased mortgage rules, their effect on underlying iron ore demand was largely temporary and insufficient, focusing more on clearing existing property inventories rather than stimulating new construction. Environmental regulations, such as production controls in the Tangshan steel hub and the impending inclusion of the steel sector in China's Emissions Trading Scheme, also influenced output and demand.
Key players and stakeholders profoundly affected included major iron ore miners such as Vale (BM&FBOVESPA: VALE3), Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO, LSE: RIO), BHP (ASX: BHP, LSE: BHP), and Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG), alongside major Chinese steel producers like China Baowu Steel Group and Ansteel Group Corporation. Initial market reactions were largely characterized by caution, with steel producers implementing widespread production cuts due to margin compression, and miners focusing on cost management and operational efficiency to navigate the challenging landscape. Financial institutions consistently revised down their iron ore price forecasts, highlighting the severity of the demand-side issues.
Corporate Fortunes in a Tumultuous Market
The iron ore market pressure in late 2024, driven by China's faltering demand, created distinct winners and losers among public companies, largely depending on their reliance on iron ore, cost structures, and diversification strategies. Major iron ore producers generally faced significant headwinds, while steel manufacturers navigated a complex scenario where lower input costs were often offset by weak steel demand.
Vale S.A. (BM&FBOVESPA: VALE3), as one of the world's largest iron ore suppliers, was highly vulnerable, with iron ore accounting for approximately 80% of its revenue. The company shed over $17 billion in market value in 2024, and its stock price plummeted to its lowest point since 2020. Vale's Proforma EBITDA for 2024 declined by 22% year-on-year. Despite solid operational performance in Q4 2024, Vale optimized its portfolio towards higher-margin products and aimed to boost its copper and nickel production to diversify revenue streams. By Q3 2025, Vale reported robust sales performance across all business segments, with average realized iron ore fines prices increasing.
BHP Group (ASX: BHP, LSE: BHP) reported its lowest annual underlying profit in five years for fiscal year 2025 (ending June 30, 2025), a 26% decline to $10.16 billion, largely attributed to a 19% fall in average iron ore prices. BHP shares experienced pressure in late 2024 and early 2025 due to rumors of China halting purchases and ongoing pricing disputes. However, by October 2025, BHP's stock showed resilience, posting gains of 5.2% in the last 30 days and 7.9% year-to-date, indicating a market rebound. The company aimed to increase its iron ore output and diversified into copper assets to offset pressure on iron ore earnings.
Fortescue Metals Group (ASX: FMG) had a challenging 2024, with its share price falling by more than 33% by December. For fiscal year 2025, Fortescue reported a significant 41% decline in annual profit to $3.37 billion, its lowest in six years. However, Fortescue's shares showed a remarkable turnaround by October 2025, climbing 37% since June 2024, fueled by improved iron ore market conditions. The company pursued a dual-focused strategy: enhancing productivity in its traditional mining operations and accelerating investments in its green metals division.
Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO, LSE: RIO), another major mining giant, was also affected by falling iron ore prices. Its Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is on track to deliver first production in late 2025, which is expected to further pressure iron ore prices in 2026 due to the substantial new supply entering the market.
Among steel manufacturers, ArcelorMittal S.A. (NYSE: MT) demonstrated remarkable resilience. Its Q4 2024 results showed narrowed losses compared to Q4 2023, and Q1 2025 core profit was above market expectations, partly due to strong performance in its Liberian iron ore mining segment. ArcelorMittal's stock experienced a "47.85% rally in 2024" and continued strong movement into 2025, hitting a 52-week high around October 2025. This positive performance was attributed to a rebound in key industrial sectors, strategic geographical positioning, and proactive corporate initiatives, including investments in "green steel" production.
In contrast, POSCO Holdings Inc. (KRX: 005490) reported a decline in sales and operating income for the first three quarters of 2024, largely due to the downturn in China's real estate sector. Its stock price collapsed by 60% from its 2023 high by September 2025. POSCO focused on diversifying into its Rechargeable Battery Materials business and expanding its Infrastructure business, anticipating production restoration and lower input costs in Q3 2025.
Broader Implications and Historical Parallels
The iron ore market pressure in late 2024, stemming from China's demand concerns, was not an isolated event but a clear indicator of profound, ongoing transformations. From the perspective of November 2025, it represented an acceleration of trends towards a more diversified, decarbonized, and potentially less volatile, albeit lower-priced, iron ore market.
This event fits into several broader industry trends. Firstly, China's economic rebalancing suggests a plateau or decline in its steel demand, moving away from steel-intensive industrial sectors towards services. This structural shift, particularly the prolonged property market crisis, is a primary driver of demand weakness. Secondly, a global oversupply is evident, as major producers continue high production while inventories at Chinese ports surge. The impending new supply from projects like Simandou in Guinea is expected to exacerbate this oversupply. Thirdly, the global push towards decarbonization and "green steel" production, involving electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and direct reduced iron (DRI) technologies, implies a potential reduction in overall virgin iron ore demand, though it might create premium markets for higher-grade ores.
The ripple effects were significant. Iron ore exporting nations like Australia and Brazil faced material impacts on their economies, with analysts anticipating continued slowdowns in China to weigh on their share markets. While Australian export volumes were forecast to rise, earnings were expected to decline due to lower prices. Global steel producers outside China faced challenges from robust Chinese steel exports, though anticipated "supply side reform 2.0" in China's steel industry could eventually benefit international producers. A severe downturn in iron ore prices also risked triggering a broader downturn in other commodity markets, hurting resource-dependent economies.
Regulatory and policy implications were also notable. Beijing's stimulus measures in late 2024 aimed to spur the economy, but their effectiveness in the property sector was limited. China's Emissions Trading Scheme was expected to include the steel sector, potentially leading to output curbs. The establishment of the China Minerals Resources Group (CMRG) in 2022 centralized procurement, giving China more leverage in negotiations. Internationally, growing resource nationalism and trade protectionism, exemplified by potential US tariffs on Chinese imports and EU anti-dumping measures on Chinese steel, influenced global trade flows and pricing.
Historically, the iron ore market has experienced volatility tied to China's economic cycles, such as the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 and the 2015 downturn driven by oversupply. However, the late 2024 pressure was seen by many analysts as a "structural" challenge rather than purely cyclical, suggesting a more prolonged period of adjustment. The long-term implications, already apparent by November 2025, include sustained price pressure, increased focus on diversification and cost efficiency for miners, accelerated green steel transition, and a shifting global steel production landscape. Paradoxically, some analyses in 2025 noted a decrease in iron ore price volatility since mid-2024, attributed to changes in Chinese buying behavior and a more balanced market fundamental.
The Road Ahead: Navigating a Transformed Market
The iron ore market is navigating a complex and transformative period following the significant demand concerns from China in late 2024. As of November 2025, the industry faces persistent downward pressure on prices due to an anticipated oversupply and a structural shift in China's economy. However, emerging markets and the global push for decarbonization present new opportunities and necessitate strategic adaptations from market players.
In the short term (November 2025 - 2026), the iron ore market is expected to remain under pressure due to subdued demand from China and a mild global surplus, which is projected to become more significant in 2026 and 2027 with new supply coming online, notably from the Simandou project in Guinea. Price projections from various institutions, including UBS and Goldman Sachs, anticipate averages around $95-$100 per ton for 2025, with further declines into 2026 and 2027. China's steel demand stagnation, driven by the property sector crisis and efforts to address overcapacity, remains a primary factor.
Looking long-term (beyond 2027), the outlook points to a multi-year downtrend in iron ore prices, with some forecasts seeing averages as low as $78 per ton by 2033. Wood Mackenzie forecasts Chinese steel demand to decline by 5-7 million tons annually over the next decade. A significant trend is the global push for steel decarbonization, favoring higher-grade iron ore for cleaner technologies like electric arc furnaces (EAFs) and hydrogen-based direct reduced iron (DRI) processes. This will likely lead to growing premiums for high-quality lump and pellets, while prices for low-grade ore could fall significantly.
These evolving market dynamics demand significant strategic adjustments. Major mining companies must prioritize cost discipline, portfolio diversification into critical minerals, and value-added growth by focusing on higher-grade ore. They also need to diversify market reach beyond China and navigate the shifting power dynamics with entities like the China Mineral Resources Group. Steel producers, especially in China, need to diversify output, invest in low-carbon technologies, and adapt raw material sourcing to meet decarbonization mandates. Traders and investors must maintain market agility, closely monitoring grade preferences, price trends, and policy developments, and target investments in high-grade ore producers and green steel technologies.
Emerging market opportunities, particularly in India and Southeast Asia, are expected to exhibit robust growth in steel production and iron ore consumption, driven by urbanization and infrastructure plans. The global decarbonization push also creates strong opportunities for producers of high-grade iron ore. However, challenges include the insufficient scale of these emerging markets to fully offset Chinese demand in the near term, their reliance on domestic supply, and the complexities of developing new supply chain infrastructure. Geopolitical and trade tensions, such as the ongoing US-China trade war and potential tariffs, also continue to influence global commodity flows.
Several potential scenarios and outcomes for the industry emerge: a prolonged oversupply and lower prices, a two-tiered market with premium pricing for high-grade ore, increased market volatility influenced by geopolitical factors, accelerated industry transformation towards sustainable practices, and shifting power dynamics with increased influence from Chinese steel mills.
Comprehensive Wrap-up and Investor Outlook
The iron ore market has entered a period defined by structural adjustments rather than just cyclical swings. The pressures of late 2024, rooted in China's demand concerns, were not merely temporary fluctuations but represented a profound structural shift in the iron ore market. The prolonged weakness in China's property sector indicates a fundamental rebalancing of its economy away from infrastructure-heavy growth, which will have a lasting impact on global steel and iron ore demand.
The significance lies in the decoupling of China's historical role as the primary demand engine from a singular growth trajectory. While China will remain a dominant force, its domestic demand is expected to plateau or even decline over the next decade. This necessitates a global reallocation of supply and a greater focus on emerging markets. The rise of resource nationalism and environmental mandates also introduces new complexities, reshaping production, trade, and investment strategies.
Moving forward, the market outlook through November 2025 and beyond indicates continued headwinds from a rebalancing Chinese economy and increasing global supply. Investors must maintain vigilance over these multifaceted factors to navigate what is expected to be a volatile and challenging market environment.
Investors should closely watch for:
Posted on 11 Nov 2025
After ticking up for two weeks, hot-rolled coil (HRC) production among the 37 Chinese steelmakers regularly surveyed by Mysteel fell slightly during October 30-November 5, easing by 1.67% to sit at 3.18 million tonnes, the results of Mysteel’s latest survey showed.
During the latest survey week, the HRC rolling capacity utilization rate among these sampled mills dropped by 1.38 percentage point on week to stand at 81.28%, while the operational rate also decreased by 1.56 percentage point to 78.13%, the survey results indicated.
Shrinking profit margins for steel mills on their sales of the coils, plus production cuts in Tangshan in North China's Hebei province as an air pollution abatement measure, caused HRC output to dip last week. However, as the profit margins the mills could earn on the flat steel were still higher than those of long steel items, the integrated mills and coil re-rollers are unlikely to make large cuts in their HRC output in the near term, as reported.
The relatively steady HRC supply, coupled with weakening demand this month as the market enters the winter off-season for steel consumption, led coil inventories held by traders to mount further last week.
By November 6, HRC stocks at the 194 commercial warehouses in the 55 Chinese cities Mysteel monitors had edged slightly higher by 0.67% or 30,000 tonnes on week to 4.49 million tonnes. Stocks sitting at steel mills fell by a tiny 0.3% or 2,300 tonnes on week to 774,300 tonnes, though.
Meanwhile, Mysteel assessed the national price of Q235 4.75mm HRC at Yuan 3,310/tonne ($465/t) including the 13% VAT last Friday, down by Yuan 55/t or 1.6% on week.
The same day, the most-traded HRC contract for January delivery on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended the daytime trading session at Yuan 3,245/t, lower by Yuan 63/t or 1.9% from the settlement price a week earlier, the bourse's data showed.
