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Friday 10 July 2026
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The Burdass Brief - Friday 10th July 2026

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Macro

New Footage Reveals Destruction of Ayatollah Khamenei’s Compound After US-Israel Strike that Took Out Iran’s Supreme Leader

Iran has given the world its first glimpse inside the bombed-out compound where Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a US-Israel airstrike at the start of the war.

The Iranian regime has released a new 50-second video showing the destruction left by the blast as part of a six-day funeral for the 86-year-old, who ruled the Islamic Republic with an iron fist since 1989.

The gutted interior of the compound is barely recognizable as a structure, the Feb. 28 missile strikes stripping it down to support beams and rebar.

Damage to Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's compound in Tehran after Israeli and U.S. airstrikes.

The US launched strikes on Iran, which killed Khamenei in February. via REUTERS

Damage to a building in the compound of Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei after Israeli and U.S. airstrikes.

Stunning photos show the destruction of the Ayatollah’s compound. via REUTERS

Deep piles of rubble cover the entire floor, draped with buckled ceiling supports and doors blown clean off the hinges in the building Khamenei once held meetings and delivered public sermons.

Exterior aerial shots show the once-mighty destroyed compound is now little more than a crumbled mess of jagged, twisted metal.

Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who took over for the Ayatollah after he was incinerated by the airstrikes that destroyed his compound, has not been seen since the attacks in the early days of the war, and has even been a no-show at his father’s funeral so far.

President Trump said Wednesday that an interim cease-fire agreement signed with Iran — hoping to lay the foundation to bring about the end of hostilities — was “over,” and threatened more strikes as he called the country’s leadership “scum.”

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaking at a podium with Iranian flags in the background.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei spoke after casting his vote for the presidential runoff election on July 5, 2024, in Tehran, Iran. Getty Images

The US resumed airstrikes against Iran this week, striking approximately 90 targets across the country in two days of attacks.

The renewed bombardments were in response to Tehran’s attacks on a trio of commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz, which the US called “unwarranted, dangerous, and a clear violation of the cease-fire.”

The regime had pledged to reopen the vital international shipping lane as part of the memorandum of understanding between the sides aimed at ending the war.


https://nypost.com/2026/07/09/world-news/ayatollah-khameneis-compound-after-us-israel-strike-that-took-out-irans-supreme-leader/

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‘We May Sleepwalk Our Way Back to War’

The U.S.-Iran skirmishes reflect the profound mistrust on both sides.

By Nancy A. Youssef, Jonathan Lemire, and Vivian 

Iran’s decision to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and the U.S. decision to retaliate and threaten to abandon diplomacy have pushed both sides close to the resumption of a war that neither wants.

For the United States—which joined Israel in late February in a war to end Iran’s nuclear ambitions, among other goals—allowing Iran’s continued attacks on ships in the strait risked signaling that Tehran still holds the whip hand over one of the world’s most strategic waterways. But the resumption of large-scale military operations in an unpopular war, ahead of November’s midterm elections and with no guarantee of changing Iran’s behavior, is hardly an attractive alternative. So the Trump administration this week attempted to thread the needle: using missile and drone strikes to try to open the strait without reigniting a broader conflict.

Iran’s memorandum of understanding with Washington, signed three weeks ago, threatened to chip away at its sway over the strait. Despite the commitments it made to offering safe passage when the MOU was signed, Tehran has since repeatedly targeted ships as they pass, asserting its newfound leverage.

The MOU offered Iran extensive financial incentives through sanctions relief, outside investment, and access to frozen funds in exchange for its cooperation. But Tehran has not yet seen the promised financial gains. And Tehran views a recent agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government, brokered by the U.S., as circumventing the MOU, which also promised a cease-fire in Lebanon between Israel and the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah. All of this has made Iran more determined than ever to preserve its new control of the strait, which was an open, international passage before the war. So although Iran may not be seeking a resumption of full-scale conflict, it may find that prospect preferable to conceding authority over the strait and losing access to the fees it seeks to charge.


https://www.theatlantic.com/national-security/2026/07/trump-iran-airstrikes-ceasefire-hormuz/687851/

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Secretary-General Calls for Maximum Restraint and De-Escalation in the Region

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IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez issued the following statement: 

"I regret that once again I am compelled to speak out following attacks  on commercial ships and innocent seafarers, due to geopolitical circumstances beyond their control. 

I condemn the attacks over the past two days against several ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

These reckless attacks  have again placed innocent seafarers in grave danger. No seafarer should have to risk their life simply for doing their job.

As long as the safety and security of crews cannot be assured, I urge flag States, shipowners, operators and all relevant authorities to avoid exposing seafarers to unnecessary danger by transiting the Strait.

The situation in the region remains volatile. These attacks further intensify the fear, uncertainty and psychological strain already being endured by the nearly 6,000 seafarers who remain stranded on board vessels unable to depart the Persian Gulf safely.

I call on all States concerned to exercise maximum restraint, de-escalate the situation without delay, and facilitate the safe departure of the ships still trapped in the Gulf since the crisis began.

The safety of seafarers must remain our foremost priority."  


https://www.imo.org/en/mediacentre/pressbriefings/pages/imo-secretary-general-condemns-new-attacks-on-ships-in-strait-of-hormuz.aspx

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Oil and Gas

Why Is Exxon Mobil (XOM) Taking Cuba To Court Again?

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is one of the 10 Best Major Stocks to Buy According to Analysts. On July 3, RBC Capital analyst Biraj Borkhataria reiterated a Hold rating on Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) stock and set a target price of $180. The firm's price target reflects 32% upside from current levels, which sits just above the median analyst upside on Wall Street of 27%.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is one of the 10 Best Major Stocks to Buy According to Analysts.

Earlier on June 23, the US Supreme Court allowed XOM to sue Cuban state-owned companies over properties seized decades ago under former leader Fidel Castro. The court ruled that Cuba's government-owned companies cannot use legal protections that usually prevent foreign governments from being sued in US courts. This decision allowed the company's case, filed in 2019, to move forward. Moreover, the 6-3 decision allows the oil giant to seek over $1 billion in compensation for assets seized during the 1960 Cuban Revolution. Exxon claimed that a Cuban company, CIMEX, illegally used a refinery and gas stations that had originally belonged to Standard Oil, which later became part of Exxon. The case will return to a lower court for further deliberations on CIMEX's potential liability.

Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) is one of the world's largest integrated energy companies, with operations spanning oil and natural gas exploration, production, and refining. The company also manufactures fuels, petrochemicals, lubricants, and advanced plastics, while investing in lower-emission initiatives such as carbon capture and lithium production.

While we acknowledge the potential of XOM as an investment, we believe certain AI stocks offer greater upside potential and carry less downside risk. If you're looking for an extremely undervalued AI stock that also stands to benefit significantly from Trump-era tariffs and the onshoring trend, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock.


https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/why-exxon-mobil-xom-taking-121500296.html

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Astana Court Revokes Enforcement Order for Naftogaz Claim Against Gazprom

The Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC) Court has revoked its initial enforcement order concerning a 1.4 billion dollars (1.2 billion euros) arbitration claim filed by Ukrainian energy firm Naftogaz against Russia’s Gazprom, citing a lack of jurisdiction on 7 July.

The dispute originated from a 2019 transit agreement. Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Naftogaz was forced to halt transit at the Sokhranivka entry point due to hostilities but continued to provide its contractual gas transportation services through the Sudzha point. Gazprom’s subsequent refusal to pay full contractual rates led to the arbitration filing.

According to Naftogaz, despite this recent setback, the company is continuing enforcement proceedings to recover the multi-billion dollar debt awarded by an international arbitration court. The debt stems from a June 2025 ruling regarding outstanding payments for natural gas transit services, with interest accruing on the balance daily.

Naftogaz is deploying legal mechanisms across multiple jurisdictions, including Kazakhstan, despite the shifting legal landscape. On 15 May 2026, the AIFC Court originally recognised the arbitration award, which holds the same legal weight as national court judgments under Kazakh law. However, on 25 May, the Minister of Justice of Kazakhstan stated the ruling would not be enforced. Naftogaz remains determined to press forward with the recognition and enforcement of the award within Kazakhstan. The state-backed company confirmed that asset recovery measures are already underway in several other countries, whilst additional international legal proceedings are currently being prepared.


https://ceenergynews.com/ukraines-energy-future/astana-court-revokes-enforcement-order-for-naftogaz-claim-against-gazprom/

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Indian Markets Trade Higher in Early Deals Despite Renewed Geopolitical Tensions

Indian equity benchmarks advanced in early trade on Thursday despite renewed geopolitical tensions and a rebound in crude oil prices to the $80-a-barrel mark.

Sensex surged as much as 0.32 per cent or about 250 points to hit an intraday high of 76,752 in morning trade, while Nifty climbed 0.20 per cent or 46.90 points to 23,928.95.

Sectorally, Nifty Consumer Durables led the gains, rising 1.39 per cent, followed by Nifty Mid-Small Financial Services (0.95 per cent), Nifty Cement (0.69 per cent), Nifty Private Bank (0.66 per cent), Nifty PSU Bank (0.64 per cent) and Nifty Auto (0.62 per cent).

In contrast, Nifty IT emerged as the top sectoral loser, declining more than 1 per cent.

Among Nifty constituents, Infosys, HCLTech, Tech Mahindra, TCS, Dr Reddy's Laboratories and Hindalco Industries fell between 1 and 2 per cent.

According to market experts, geopolitical tensions have once again weighed on investor sentiment, with US President Donald Trump's remarks on Iran triggering selling pressure in the market.

However, they noted that Brent crude at around $80 a barrel was not yet a major concern for India, adding that continued foreign institutional investor (FII) buying and stable oil prices could help large-cap stocks, especially financials and automobiles, remain resilient.

Moreover, the American President Trump has said that the US had carried out fresh strikes against Iran overnight in response to what he described as Iranian attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

He said, "To me, I think it's over. I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum...They are sick people. They're led by sick people. They are vicious, violent people and if they had a nuclear weapon, they would use it. As far as I am concerned, it's over. I'll speak to our negotiators. They want to negotiate. As far as I'm concerned, it's just a waste of time dealing with them. They're liars. We make a deal...Everyone's agreed. No nuclear weapon. We make a deal. They go outside and talk to the press. They say we never even talked about it. There's something wrong with them. They're cuckoo. As far as I'm concerned, it's over."

International benchmark Brent crude rose 1.49 per cent to around $80 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained more than 2 per cent to $75 a barrel.

Asian markets were mixed. Japan's Nikkei rose nearly 2 per cent, while South Korea's Kospi edged higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng, however, declined about 1 per cent.


https://www.thehansindia.com/amp/business/indian-markets-trade-higher-in-early-deals-despite-renewed-geopolitical-tensions-1095451

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Oil Price Surge Shows Markets Were Too Relaxed About Iran Deal

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jul 09, 2026, 4:20 AM CDT

Wednesday’s jump in oil prices to a two-week high suggests that market participants were too complacent about the U.S.-Iran ‘deal to make a deal’ and that the ceasefire would hold and oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz would only increase, analysts at ING said on Thursday.

Oil prices surged by over 5% on Wednesday, gaining 7% at one point to a two-week high, after the escalation in the region.

The Iranian attacks on three commercial ships on Tuesday, including an oil tanker and an LNG carrier, have prompted some shipowners and operators to pause attempts to transit the Strait of Hormuz as the security situation has sharply deteriorated.

After Iran hit three ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States on Tuesday night attacked multiple targets in Iran, including “air defence systems, command and control networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities.”

Iran retaliated with strikes on U.S. military bases in Bahrain and Kuwait in a stark reminder that the ceasefire agreed by the warring parties last month is anything but stable.

Later on Wednesday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the ceasefire was “over” and the memorandum of understanding from mid-June was a “waste of time.”

The Trump administration also revoked a temporary sanctions waiver that allowed Iran to sell oil and petrochemicals.

The market reacted to the latest flare-up with a surge in prices as hopes began to fade that the flows through the Strait of Hormuz would constantly increase and flood the world with oil.

“The past few days’ price action makes one thing clear: markets were far too relaxed about the risks surrounding the deal — and far too bullish on how quickly regional supply could rebound,” ING’s commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey wrote in a note early on Thursday.

Tanker traffic at Hormuz collapsed on Wednesday and early Thursday as vessel operators exercised extreme caution amid renewed hostilities.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Price-Surge-Shows-Markets-Were-Too-Relaxed-About-Iran-Deal.html

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Government in Struggle to Reduce Retail Oil Prices


The government continues to grapple with the challenge of lowering retail oil prices, which remain stubbornly above 30 baht per litre despite recent declines in global crude markets.

An energy official who requested anonymity said authorities have limited tools at their disposal to ease the burden on motorists.

Recent measures have focused on reducing levies collected through the Oil Fuel Fund, resulting in modest cuts of 2.56 baht per litre for diesel and 2.51 baht per litre for gasoline.

However, the ex-refinery price -- a crucial component in determining retail costs -- has not been adjusted, leaving pump prices elevated.

Global crude prices fell after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding last month aimed at easing Middle East tensions. The agreement followed a surge in prices earlier this year, triggered by the US-Israeli conflict with Iran.

While the easing of hostilities has brought some relief, the government insists it must continue collecting levies to reimburse oil retailers.

"The government needs to keep oil prices at high levels. They need money to reimburse oil retailers," the official said, noting that subsidies from the Oil Fuel Fund had previously been used to cushion the impact of soaring crude prices.

Beyond crude supply, the official pointed to deeper structural issues.

Recent conflicts have disrupted refining networks in the Middle East, further straining global refining capacity.

This comes on top of long-term declines in refinery investment and closures during the pandemic that left the industry ill-prepared to meet demand.

As a result, even when crude oil is abundant, refined fuel prices remain high due to limited processing capacity, he said.

Refineries are prioritising diesel and jet fuel to meet industrial and travel demand, leaving gasoline production constrained. This imbalance has driven pump prices higher in many countries.

"It is difficult to bring retail oil prices back to pre-conflict levels because of both domestic and international market pressures," the official said.


https://www.inkl.com/news/government-in-struggle-to-reduce-retail-oil-prices

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Precious Metals

Gold and Copper Miners Back in Fashion

Gold and copper miners back in fashion

Mining stocks dominated the FTSE 350 risers on Thursday as stronger metals prices boosted sentiment across the sector.

Precious metals miners led the way, with Pan African Resources PLC (LSE:PAF, OTCQX:PAFRY) rising 4.7%,followed by Hochschild Mining PLC (LSE:HOC, OTCQX:HCHDF), which gained 3.9%, while Atalaya Mining Copper (LSE:ATYM, TSX:AYM), Endeavour Mining PLC (LSE:EDV, OTCQX:EDVMF) and Fresnillo PLC (LSE:FRES) all up over 2%.

Among base metals producers, copper focused Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO) climbed 4.0%, Glencore PLC (LSE:GLEN) added 3.8% and Anglo American PLC (LSE:AAL) climbed 3.6%, while Rio Tinto Ltd (LSE:RIO, ASX:RIO, OTC:RTNTF) also traded 1.8% higher.

US copper climbed 1.8% to $6.16 per lb, silver gained 1.6% to $59 an ounce and gold rose 0.8% to $4,106.

Market analyst Richard Hunter at Interactive Investor said mining stocks were "temporarily squarely back in fashion".

Antofagasta was bolstered by a broker upgrade from JPMorgan to 'overweight' from 'neutral', boosting its share price target significantly to 4,500p from 3,400p.

After markets fell sharply on the resumption of strikes between the US and Iran, European and Asian stocks were mostly higher on Thursday, seemingly taking confidence from President Trump being reported as saying that Iran still wanted to agree a peace deal.


https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-copper-miners-back-fashion-081100393.html

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Asia Plus Highlights Selective Picks and Chinese DRs Amid Renewed Mideast Tensions

Asia Plus Securities (ASPS) recommended a selective accumulation strategy focusing on stocks with unique catalysts or those benefiting from commodities. Today’s top picks include PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited (SET: PTTEP), SCG Packaging Public Company Limited (SET: SCGP), and Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited (SET: BBL).

Additionally, the brokerage advised investors to look for opportunities to accumulate depositary receipts (DRs) of Chinese stocks, as their valuations remain attractive and are targets for fund inflows. Examples include BABA80, TENCENT80, XIAOMI80, XPENG80, and ZIJIN80.

Meanwhile, ASPS noted that the global financial markets are entering a period of extreme volatility due to the escalating conflict between the United States and Iran, which has destabilized the temporary ceasefire agreement.

Most recently, the U.S. launched consecutive attacks on Iran for a second straight day and revoked Iran’s oil export privileges. Furthermore, President Donald Trump has threatened to blockade ports and strike critical infrastructure, prompting Iran to declare its readiness to retaliate immediately.

These developments have heightened concerns over the direction of oil prices, especially since over 20% of global oil must transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The risk of renewed supply disruption could drive oil prices sharply higher, potentially accelerating global inflation and increasing the chances that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reconsider raising interest rates.

The risks posed by war and interest rate trends have prompted aggressive profit-taking in technology stocks that had previously outperformed the market, particularly memory chip makers like Micron Technology, which plunged 21.8% in just eight trading sessions, and SanDisk, which dropped 26%, firmly entering bear market territory.

Conversely, capital flows are shifting out of markets that previously surged—such as South Korea’s, which has dropped over 12% since the start of the month—into lagging markets like China and Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index has rebounded by 5.8% since the beginning of the month.

Additionally, Chinese equities have received positive momentum from the announcement that major Chinese banks, like ICBC, will suspend retail paper gold trading starting July 24. This move aims to curb speculation and reduce credit usage, supporting the stability of the yuan and drawing capital back into Chinese stocks and gold-backed equities.


https://www.kaohooninternational.com/markets/586395

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Base Metals

Copper Surging Higher on Thursday

Copper Surging Higher on Thursday

Softer Oil Boosts Copper

Copper prices are rising firmly today with the futures market up around 1.7% through early European trading. The move higher comes amidst the pullback in oil prices today following Trump posting overnight that Iran is seeking a new agreement following his declaration yesterday that the ceasefire was now over. Trump made the statement following a series of tit-for-tat attacks between the two countries which saw the US military hit over 80 Iranian sites yesterday while Iran targeted US military sites in neighbouring countries. Oil prices had spiked firmly higher yesterday as fears around the situation grew. Copper prices were down sharply against this backdrop with the threat of a return to war seen lifting energy price expectations, weighing on global manufacturing and demand forecasts.

Supply Concerns & Tariff Threats

Copper prices have been broadly lower from the YTD highs printed in early June but there are still plenty of factors at play that could support a fresh rise in the metal. Supply concerns linked to sulphuric acid shortages (a key component in the copper refinement process) have been cited in bullish forecasts recently as output levels from the world’s largest producer, Chile, continue to fall. Traders are also awaiting a decision on whether US import tariffs will apply to refined copper products. If tariffs will be applied this is expected to drive price sharply higher near-term.

Technical Views

Copper

Copper prices are now back above the 6.1090 level and with momentum studies turning higher, a fresh test of the 6.2845 level is seen next. If bulls can get back above there, focus will turn to the higher 6.5830 level next. To the downside, 5.8550 will be the deeper support zone to watch.


https://www.tickmill.com/blog/copper-surging-higher-on-thursday

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Steel

Hoa Phat Sees Sharp Increases in Crude Steel Output and HRC Sales in H1 2026

Vietnam-based steel producer Hoa Phat Group has announced its sales results for the second quarter and the first half of 2026.

In the second quarter, the company produced over 3.6 million mt of crude steel, up by 48 percent year on year. Sales volume of construction steel products, high-quality steel coils, HRC, and steel billets reached 3.5 million mt, a 35 percent increase compared to the same period last year. Of that total, construction steel and high-quality steel coils recorded 1.3 million mt, an increase of two percent year on year. Hoa Phat Steel maintained its number one market share in Vietnam with 36 percent.

For HRC, sales volume in the second quarter reached 1.9 million mt, a 64 percent increase compared to the same period last year. Currently, domestic consumption accounts for 80 percent of HRC sales, with the remainder being exported. Hoa Phat has exported HRC to 20 countries and territories in Asia, Europe, America, and Africa. In the second quarter of 2026, the company sold 212,000 mt of steel pipes and 83,000 mt of galvanized steel.

In the first half, Hoa Phat Group produced nearly seven million mt of crude steel, a 36 percent increase compared to the same period last year. Sales of HRC, construction steel, high-quality steel, and steel billets reached 6.5 million mt, a 32 percent increase year on year.

the first six months of the year, sales of HRC reached nearly 3.4 million mt, up by 57 percent year on year. In the given period, the company also supplied the market with 453,000 mt of steel pipes, up by 13 percent, and 189,000 mt of galvanized steel, down by five percent, both year on year.


https://www.steelorbis.com/steel-news/latest-news/hoa-phat-sees-sharp-increases-in-crude-steel-output-and-hrc-sales-in-h1-2026-1463503.htm

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