By Niket Nishant and Avinash P
July 1 (Reuters) - The benchmark S&;P 500 and the blue-chip Dow turned positive on Wednesday as investors parsed U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's comments that inflation risks had eased.
Warsh reiterated that the central bank was committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% goal, but said price risks had come down in recent weeks.
The remarks brought some relief for investors who have been worried about rate hikes by the Fed, especially as the latest data shows that the U.S. labor market remains stable, potentially giving the central bank more leeway to focus on price pressures.
Oil prices fell, with Brent crude down 2.1%, alleviating inflation concerns.
Traders still expect at least one hike from the U.S. central bank this year, according to data compiled by LSEG. Warsh again said he would not give forward guidance on the interest-rate trajectory.
Separately, data from the Institute for Supply Management also showed U.S. manufacturing activity had slowed in June but was still solid.
"A broadening recovery across manufacturing but not employment supports a cautious stance (from the Fed) as price pressures evolve," said Richard de Chazal, macro analyst at William Blair.
At 11:51 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 283.37 points, or 0.54%, to 52,602.57, the S&P 500 gained 12.21 points, or 0.16%, to 7,511.57, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 81.22 points, or 0.31%, to 26,132.67.
In the second quarter of 2026, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite registered their best quarterly performance since 2020, while the Dow marked its best showing since 2022.
WAR RISKS PERSIST
Unease surrounding U.S.-Iran tensions has cast a shadow over Middle East peace talks, setting a cautious tone for the second half of the year.
Tehran said it would not meet with top U.S. envoys who flew to the region following an outbreak of hostilities. Although a source with direct knowledge of the talks as well as an Iranian official said the U.S. and Iran held technical talks in Doha, contrasting rhetoric suggested a breakthrough may prove to be elusive.
Repeated false dawns have made the conflict difficult to track, leading some investors to focus instead on the economy's underlying pillars.
Investors will now look for clues on the health of the labor market on Thursday, when the nonfarm payrolls report for June is due to be released.
Communication services led the benchmark with gains of 2.5%, while the information technology index fell 1.3%.
Semiconductors fell 5.3%, while software shares gained 3.8%.
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wall-st-futures-slip-second-101234083.html
By Matthew Boesler and Maya Prakash | July 2, 2026
Whether artificial intelligence will cause mass workforce cuts over time remains up for debate, but it is starting to leave an imprint on US employment data.
A decline in payrolls in the financial-activities and information sectors — where AI adoption rates have been fastest — has accelerated in 2026, to 28,000 per month on average based on government data.
The weakness stands out against an otherwise robust labor market that created more than 113,000 jobs monthly this year through May — a number that would have been much higher if the banking and tech industries hadn’t dragged down the overall total. June payroll data set to be released Thursday is expected to show another month of solid gains.
After investing heavily in artificial intelligence, tech companies are now increasingly citing AI as a factor for cutting their workforce. Top bankers at JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have also said the technology will eliminate some jobs.
“It’s certainly making an impact as we speak in a way that no technology has before,” said John Challenger, chief executive officer at Challenger, Gray & Christmas. His firm, which tracks layoff plans, found almost 102,000 announced job cuts attributed to AI so far this year.
Overall, the tech sector accounted for a third of all layoffs announced in 2026. “Finance might be the next big sector that’s most affected,” Challenger said.
Research suggests AI’s impact on the labor market depends on how companies deploy the technology. A study from Stanford’s Digital Economy Lab found employment has weakened in occupations where the technology automates tasks, while holding up in roles where AI helps employees in their job.
Finance may be especially vulnerable because of its workforce composition. Office and administrative support occupations — including customer service representatives, bank tellers and insurance claims processors — account for about a quarter of employment in financial activities, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data compiled by Bloomberg. That share is larger than in any other major industry.
And those office occupations are projected to experience some of the largest employment declines over the next decade, in part because of AI, the BLS said its latest projections.
A tracker of unemployment data developed by the California Policy Lab found finance and insurance had the highest concentration of unemployment claims in the state coming from workers in highly AI-exposed occupations, while information and professional services also recorded persistently elevated claims among AI-exposed workers.
Researchers at California Policy Lab said in a report that those findings suggest AI’s effects “may be starting to surface,” even though statewide unemployment claims do not yet indicate widespread AI-related job losses.
Too Early
At the macroeconomic level, it remains too early to detect broad effects, economists say.
“Some of this could genuinely be productivity replacing workers,” said Pooja Sriram, senior US economist at Barclays. “But the narrative that keeps coming up is really a cost-cutting exercise by a lot of firms, given the amount of investments they have committed towards AI.”
Ryan Nunn, director of research for the Yale Budget Lab, said he doesn’t see an impact yet. Layoff data for the financial-activities industry showed no unusual increase in 2026, suggesting AI may be affecting employment first through slower hiring and attrition rather than broad-based job cuts, Nunn said.
For workers in the industry, whether AI is cited as the reason for their job loss or not, the uncertainty is already real.
Bill Matonte, a software engineer, is struggling to find employment after being laid off in April by Citigroup. Back in March 2025, it took him just six weeks to land the job at Citigroup in Jersey City after losing the previous one at JPMorgan, he said. This time, he began interviewing six months ago, anticipating layoffs, and has gone through multiple interview processes without getting an offer.
“It’s really stressful,” he said.
New Delhi: Nayara Energy has reduced petrol and diesel prices with effect from Wednesday, 1 July 2026, by ₹5 and ₹3 per litre, respectively.
The price cut applies to all 7,000 fuel stations of the Rosneft-backed company. In Gurugram, petrol is now priced at ₹102.76 per litre at Nayara pumps, while diesel is sold at ₹95.58 a litre, according to petrol pump dealers.
“Post refinery turnaround, Nayara is fully geared to meet demand,” a company official said. The company's 20 million tonnes per annum Vadinar refinery was undergoing a month-long maintenance or turnaround from 9 April.
With this price revision, India's largest private retailer is the first oil marketing company in the country to roll back price hikes following the recent easing of global crude oil prices after the signing of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between Iran and the US on 17 June, and the subsequent opening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key channel for 20% of global oil and gas trade.
To be sure, Nayara was the first retailer to raise fuel prices after the outbreak of war in West Asia and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a surge in international oil prices. On 26 March, it increased petrol prices by ₹5 per litre and diesel by ₹3 per litre.
Around 10:00 am, the September Brent contract was trading at $73.24 per barrel, up 0.4% from its previous close, while the August West Texas Intermediate contract was trading at $69.77 per barrel, up 0.39%.
Brent has eased significantly from the four-year high of $126.41 on 30 April.
Other OMCs, both public and private, are yet to roll back prices.
The Serbian oil company NIS, whose controlling stake belongs to Russian owners, has received another postponement of sanctions from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) of the U.S. Department of the Treasury - until July 31. This was reported on Tuesday by Serbia's Minister of Energy Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic on her Instagram, Reuters reports, writes UNN.
Details
The postponement granted by OFAC will allow NIS, which operates the only oil refinery in Serbia, to continue importing crude oil until the sale of the controlling stake from Russian owners to the Hungarian company MOL is completed. The previous authorization expires on Wednesday.
OFAC imposed sanctions on NIS in October as part of broader restrictions targeting the Russian energy sector due to Russia's war against Ukraine. The U.S. agency demanded that Russian owners — Gazprom Neft and Gazprom — divest their stakes in the company.
On January 19, MOL signed an agreement to acquire a combined 56 percent stake of Gazprom Neft and Gazprom in NIS. After several extensions, OFAC most recently set a deadline for the parties to complete the deal — by this Wednesday.
Serbia also seeks to increase its stake in NIS by an additional 5%.
Currently, Gazprom owns 11.3% of NIS shares, and its sanctioned subsidiary Gazprom Neft owns 44.9%. The Serbian government controls 29.9% of the shares, while the rest belongs to minority shareholders and company employees.
The coming global race to rebuild depleted oil inventories will not be enough to offset a massive glut that’s coming to the market next year, as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to be headed toward normalization, according to Goldman Sachs.
Stockpiles of crude and refined petroleum products in many parts of the world have been depleted to multi-decade lows after governments raced to release strategic stockpiles in March after the Middle East crisis trapped millions of barrels of daily crude and product flows in the Persian Gulf.
These inventories will now have to be rebuilt - a process that’s likely to put a floor under oil prices.
In the United States alone, the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has been depleted to a 1983 low, while stocks at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI, have crumbled to operational-stress levels.
In addition, many countries, especially in Asia Pacific, are looking to build new reserve capacity to boost their energy security and never again be caught off-guard by a massive supply disruption like the one triggered by the closure of the most important oil and LNG chokepoint.
But Goldman Sachs says that all these demand-supportive factors cannot erase the major glut coming next year.
The investment bank expects the global oil surplus to be about 3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman, told Bloomberg Television in an interview on Wednesday.
“We do expect a little over 1 million barrels a day just of SPR rebuilding globally, but still, that would leave us close to 2 million barrels a day of a surplus,” Dart added.
Other Wall Street banks have also started to predict a glut next year after the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to negotiate a peace deal.
Morgan Stanley, for example, has slashed its oil price forecasts for the next 18 months as it expects the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to accelerate a new supply glut.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
HOUSTON - US crude oil production rose to 13.93-million barrels per day (bpd) in April, the highest on record, monthly data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed on Tuesday, as producers ramped up output in response to higher oil prices owing to the Iran war.
Production rose by 216 000 bpd in April, EIA data showed, with production in New Mexico touching a record high of 2.37-million bpd.
Crude production in Texas edged 36 000 bpd higher to 5.83-million bpd, the highest since November. Texas and New Mexico are home to the Permian Basin, which accounts for roughly half of US crude output.
Output from North Dakota, the third-largest producing state, also rose to 1.13-million bpd, the highest since November.
US crude futures were trading around $70 a barrel. They had traded as high as $119.50 in March.
US gross natural gas production eased to 135.3-billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in April from 135.4 bcfd in March and a record 136 bcfd in December.
In top gas-producing states, monthly output in April rose 0.2% to a record 38.8 bcfd in Texas, but fell 1.1% to 21 bcfd in Pennsylvania, the EIA said.
That compares with a monthly all-time high of 38.7 bcfd in March in Texas and 21.9 bcfd in December 2021 in Pennsylvania.
US crude and products supplied overall grew in April to 20.81-million barrels per day, the highest level since February, the data showed, with supplies of finished motor gasoline, a proxy for demand, rising to 9.12-million, the highest in eight months.
Distillate fuel oil supplied, however, fell in April to 3.89-million bpd, the lowest since December.
Harmony Gold's Eva Copper project in Australia was acquired as a greenfields project in 2022. Picture: SUPPLIED
Harmony Gold hit pause on land clearing at its Eva Copper project this week after discovering a protected species in the area.
The project, located in Northwest Queensland in Australia, has been in the company’s portfolio for more than three years and is central to its growth strategy of diversifying into copper.
Harmony CEO Beyers Nel said the protected species was identified within the project area, and that “clearing activities were paused while we engaged with regulators, environmental specialists, government stakeholders and other interested parties to determine the appropriate way forward.”
However, the company reassured investors the project remains on track. It said it was redirecting activities in the interim in order to “maintain momentum while the required assessments and engagements continue”.
Nel reiterated Eva’s central role in Harmony’s growth plans, which aim to integrate copper into its production profile as a hedge against a downturn in gold prices.
With gold prices slumping in the wake of the Iran war, the benefits of diversification have been particularly stark in recent months. Inflation concerns have seen gold post its sharpest quarterly decline in 13 years over the past three months.
Last year Harmony acquired the CSA copper mine, another large Australian mine, opening the door to a combined 100,000 tonnes of copper a year once Eva is fully commissioned.
Eva itself has taken three years to reach the final feasibility study phase. The project is expected to cost at least $1.55bn to develop over the next three years.
In a statement on Tuesday, Harmony affirmed annual gold production guidance for the year to end-June, with output forecast at 1.4-1.5-million ounces.
The CSA mine, which was officially integrated into its portfolio late last year, is expected to deliver towards the upper end of guidance, producing 17,500-18,500 tonnes of copper.
Overall costs are expected to be within guidance, with capital expenditure coming in slightly below plan, it said.
This article first appeared on GuruFocus.
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) has agreed to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina and aluminum assets in a deal valued at up to $5.6 billion, strengthening its position as one of the world's largest integrated aluminum producers. The transaction includes $3.1 billion in cash, about $1 billion in Alcoa shares, and $750 million of net debt and lease liabilities, with South32 possibly receiving another $750 million if alumina and aluminum prices exceed agreed thresholds over the next four years. Alcoa shares fell nearly 5% in premarket trading, while South32 shares rose as much as 10%, suggesting investors may be weighing the strategic upside against near-term deal pressure.
The acquisition gives Alcoa a broader footprint across bauxite mining, alumina refining and aluminum smelting, with assets in Australia, Brazil and South Africa, while an idled Mozambique smelter remains outside the deal and under South32's strategic review. A key piece of the transaction is South32's Worsley alumina refinery in Western Australia, which will be folded into Alcoa's existing operations in the region. That could be important because Alcoa has been dealing with declining ore grades and permanently shut its Kwinana alumina refinery last year, while also facing environmental opposition over plans to mine a forest in Western Australia for bauxite.
The timing could matter for investors as aluminum demand is expected to be supported by electric vehicles, electricity transmission, renewable energy, packaging and aerospace. Aluminum prices are up 3% this year after Middle East supply disruptions, with the region accounting for nearly a tenth of global output, helped drive a rally between March and May before gains eased as prospects for an end to the Iran war reduced supply concerns. Alcoa said the deal would lift annual production to 3.2 million tons of aluminum and 14.8 million tons of alumina, while Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina said the transaction makes strategic and economic sense but could temporarily weigh on Alcoa's share price. The deal is expected to close in the first half of 2027, as South32 shifts toward copper, manganese and zinc-lead-silver assets under incoming CEO Matthew Daley.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/alcoa-shares-drop-nearly-5-155836870.html
Aluminum prices dropped to $3,060 per ton as the U.S. dollar strengthened and geopolitical tensions eased. For Indian investors, the trend is important because major producers like Hindalco, Vedanta, and Nalco often link their local selling prices to global market rates. A sustained decline in prices could put pressure on profit margins if input costs remain high.
What Happened
Aluminum prices have fallen to their lowest level since mid-February, trading at $3,060 a ton on the London Metal Exchange. The metal experienced a sharp 16% decline in June, marking its most significant monthly drop since 2008. This price correction is primarily driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, which makes commodities more expensive for global buyers, and reduced geopolitical tension in the Middle East, which has calmed supply fears.
Why It Matters For Indian Investors
Major Indian metal companies such as Hindalco Industries, Vedanta, and National Aluminium Company (Nalco) are highly sensitive to global aluminum price movements. These companies typically set their domestic selling prices based on the London Metal Exchange rates. When global prices fall, it can lead to lower revenue for these producers. Investors often watch these price trends because they act as a leading indicator for the quarterly financial performance of these companies.
The Margin Squeeze Risk
The impact on a company’s profit is not determined by the metal price alone. Investors focus on the difference between the selling price of aluminum and the cost of production, such as electricity, coal, and bauxite. If global aluminum prices fall, but raw material costs for these companies stay high, profit margins often shrink. This creates a challenging environment where companies have to work harder to maintain their profitability.
Broader Commodity Weakness
The pressure on aluminum is part of a larger trend in the commodity market. Prices for other industrial metals like copper and iron ore have also faced downward pressure. Some market trends suggest that investors are shifting capital away from commodities and moving it toward equities, which can further weigh on the prices of metals. This broader sector weakness means that metal producers are currently facing a challenging global pricing environment.
What Investors Should Track
As the industry navigates this price decline, the key monitorable for investors will be how companies manage their operational costs. In the coming quarterly results, management commentary regarding realization prices, cost-cutting initiatives, and inventory management will be important. Investors may also track whether global interest rate policies continue to support a strong dollar, as this could keep prices for industrial metals under continued pressure. Finally, watching the demand from key markets like China will remain essential to understanding if this price dip is a temporary trend or a longer-term shift.
Overnight, LME zinc opened at $3,485/mt. In early trading, LME zinc moved sideways around the daily average, then edged down and pulled back to $3,466.5/mt. Afterwards, the price rose steadily, touching a high of $3,558/mt during the session. In late trading, gains narrowed slightly and the price consolidated at highs, eventually closing up at $3,551.5/mt, up $64.5/mt, or 1.85%. Trading volume rose to 111,000 lots, while open interest increased by 1,117 lots to 263,000 lots. Overnight, LME zinc formed a large bullish candlestick. The lower Bollinger Band provided support. The US dollar index rose first then fell, while inventories outside China continued to decline, supporting LME zinc's price center to edge up.
Overnight, the most-traded SHFE zinc 2608 contract opened at 24,460 yuan/mt. In early trading, the price edged up slightly but subsequently drifted lower and found a low at 24,420 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls added positions, driving the price up to a high of 24,620 yuan/mt. In the late session, bulls reduced positions and momentum faded. It eventually closed up at 24,585 yuan/mt, up 235 yuan/mt, or 0.97%. Trading volume fell to 59,930 lots, while open interest increased by 3,478 lots to 98,932 lots. Overnight, SHFE zinc formed a bullish candlestick. The lower Bollinger Band provided support, while the middle band provided resistance. Currently, domestic TCs are low, and China's zinc ingot production in July is expected to continue to decline, supporting SHFE zinc to rise. However, end-use consumption limited the upside.
Data source statement: All data other than public information are based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, processed by SMM, and are for reference only. They do not constitute any investment advice.
South Korean Industry Minister Kim Jung-kwan has stated that the South Korean government will seek to create new domestic demand for steel products to support its steel industry following the European Union’s implementation of stricter steel import measures, according to South Korean media reports.
Mr. Kim chaired a meeting with representatives of domestic steelmakers in Seoul to discuss measures to mitigate the impact of the EU’s new steel safeguard regime, according to the ministry of trade, industry and resources.
EU safeguard measures reduce South Korea’s quota
The EU’s new safeguard system, which entered into force on Wednesday, July 1, reduces the bloc’s overall tariff-free steel import quota by 46 percent, to 18.35 million mt from 33.82 million mt. South Korea received a country-specific quota of 2.07 million mt, representing a 19.7 percent reduction from the previous allocation.
Kim said the EU’s decision reflects global steel overcapacity and increasing protectionist trade measures, warning that similar developments could continue in the future.
Government targets more than 510,000 mt of new steel demand
The ministry noted that steel products originally destined for the EU market could be redirected to other export markets, intensifying competition in those regions. To mitigate the impact, the government plans to strengthen supply chain cooperation among steelmakers, shipbuilders, defense companies and renewable energy businesses to generate new domestic demand for steel.
According to Kim, these measures, together with efforts to eliminate unfair imports of raw materials, could create demand for more than 510,000 mt of steel, exceeding the reduction in South Korea’s EU tariff-free quota. The ministry added that South Korea will continue discussions with EU authorities to maintain supply chain cooperation and mutual benefits under the bilateral free trade agreement.
