Copper prices rose for a third straight session on Tuesday as persistent concerns over a supply shortage kept the metal within striking distance of an all-time peak.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.1% at US$14,636.50 ($21,032.65) a tonne as of 0915 GMT, close to the record US$14,875 seen last month.
Supply concerns remained in focus after Chile’s Codelco partially suspended operations at its El Teniente mine following a landslide, while Antofagasta’s (LSE:ANTO) Centinela copper mine and two unions were set to resume talks as a strike continued.
“Copper continues to benefit from physical-market tightness and declining exchange inventories, helping it withstand the firm dollar better than the wider complex,” Sucden Financial said in a note.
A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. The dollar took a breather on Tuesday but hovered near an 18-month high.
All reported copper mine disruptions for 2025–26 — including at Indonesia’s Grasberg mine and Kamoa-Kakula in the Democratic Republic of Congo — amount to 350,000–400,000 tonnes per year of contained copper, which equates to only 30%–50% of published disruption allowances, Panmure Liberum said.
“Therefore, the dominant price driver is probably speculative/financial,” the bank added in a note.
A disruption allowance is a percentage of mine production that analysts assume will be lost due to unplanned events in a given year.
LME copper stocks declined by 1,625 tonnes to 232,275 tonnes, leaving inventories outside the US tight. The cash LME copper contract was trading at a US$181.50 premium to the three-month forward, indicating scarce near-term availability.
Aluminium fell 0.6% to US$3,035.50 per tonne, close to the eight-month low it touched on Monday. Some easing in passage restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz has reconnected Gulf smelters to the world, taking aluminium prices down, Panmure Liberum said.
New supply from Indonesia is also ramping up, with exports topping 150,000 tonnes in August.
Zinc lost 0.4% to US$3,741.50, lead rose 0.6% to US$1,894.50, nickel was flat at US$15,620 and tin eased 0.2% to US$53,000.
(Reporting by Tom Daly; additional reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad in Bengaluru; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu and Jochelle Mendonca)
https://mining.com.au/copper-price-rises-amid-disruptions-zinc-and-aluminium-fall/
(RTTNews) - After a strong start, the Canadian market pared some gains Tuesday morning but still remains firmly placed in positive territory with stocks from energy, communications, consumer staples and financials sectors making significant progress up north.
Materials and healthcare stocks are under pressure, while technology, industrials and consumer discretionary stocks are turning in a mixed performance.
A sharp drop in oil prices and lower bond yields, as well as easing concerns about interest rates following recent weak jobs data lifted sentiment at the start. However, the market gave up some gains as oil prices rebounded and moved above the flat line.
Oil prices fell sharply as Russia partially lifted its diesel export restrictions, helping ease supply constraints in global fuel markets.
Brent crude futures, which fell to $104.35 a barrel, recovered to $105.71, trimming its loss to around 0.9%. West Texas Intermediate Crude futures dropped to $91.70 a barrel before recovering to $93.83, gaining 0.1%.
According to Reuters, Russia expects to increase diesel exports from 3 million to 3.5 million metric tons per month by the end of 2026, returning to the levels seen before the crisis and potentially exceeding volumes announced by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Russia said EU countries bought $320.7 billion in hydrocarbons since 2022 despite sanctions, including $21.3 billion in 2026.
The benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index, which climbed to 35,956.15 in early trades, is up 175.33 points or 0.49% at 35,839.95 about half an hour before noon.
Enerflex is soaring nearly 13%. Open Text Corporation is up 5.7% and Parex Resources is gaining 4.5%. Shopify, Paramount Resources, Cenovus Energy, Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor Energy, BCE, Constellation Software, Telus, Imperial Oil, Ovintiv, Winpak and Baytex Energy are up 3%-4%.
Ritchie Bros Auctioneers, Descartes Systems, Canadian Energy Services, Loblaw Companies, Cascades, Whitecap Resources, Ensign Energy Services, Lightspeed Commerce and Rogers Communications are among the several other prominent gainers.
Wesdome Gold Mines is down nearly 10%. SSR Mining, Celestica, Ballard Power Systems, Tilray, Labrador Iron Ore, BlackBerry, First Majestic Silver, Aurora Cannabis, Centerra Gold, Eldorado Gold, Brookfield Renewable, Pan American Silver, Bausch Health Companies and Fortuna Silver Mines are down 3.4%-7%.
Ten spot cargoes to cost $863 million, nearly twice the price of long-term supplies; remaining 12 cargoes estimated at $429.83 million amid Qatar supply disruptions
Pakistan plans to import 22 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes at an estimated cost of $1.29 billion between November 2026 and February 2027 to meet increased winter gas demand amid supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict, The Express Tribune reported
Of the total requirement, 10 cargoes will be purchased from the international spot market at an estimated cost of $863 million, while the remaining 12 will be secured through existing long-term contracts for approximately $429.83 million.
The spot purchases are expected to cost nearly twice as much as LNG imported under long-term agreements with Qatar, significantly increasing the government's winter import expenditure.
According to projections discussed at a recent energy task force meeting, the latest quoted spot LNG price stands at $26.30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), putting the estimated cost of each spot cargo at $86.3 million.
The detailed financial projections include 11 cargoes from Qatar worth $351.41 million and one cargo from Eni valued at $78.42 million. However, an earlier supply plan referred to all 12 long-term cargoes coming from Qatar, with no Eni deliveries.
Winter LNG requirements are expected to peak in January 2027, when eight cargoes will be needed at a projected cost of $437.32 million. December 2026 is expected to account for another $369 million in imports.
Pakistan State Oil (PSO) currently has two government-to-government LNG supply agreements with QatarEnergy, covering 2016-2031 and 2021-2031. Under these arrangements, PSO is entitled to receive approximately 6.75 million tonnes of LNG annually, equivalent to 108 cargoes.
Earlier this year, PSO and QatarEnergy agreed to divert 24 cargoes scheduled for 2026 to other destinations because of weak domestic demand. However, the ongoing Middle East conflict has disrupted LNG supplies from Qatar, forcing Pakistan to consider more expensive spot purchases to meet seasonal requirements.
PSO and QatarEnergy have also recently issued contract review notices, with PSO seeking federal government approval to proceed with a review of the existing agreements.
The projected $1.29 billion import bill remains subject to actual supply availability, contractual quantities, applicable long-term prices and prevailing spot market rates.
EU countries have paid USD 209 billion (4,5 trillion Kč) for Russian hydrocarbons since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said so, according to AFP. She also stressed that the EU is working to end imports of Russian gas by the end of 2027.
The European Commission released the figure in response to a statement from Moscow on Monday. Russia said it had sold more than USD 320 billion worth of hydrocarbons to European countries since 2022, despite sanctions imposed on the country over its invasion of Ukraine. Russia highlighted its supplies to Europe after some European countries criticised a deal allowing the United States to import Russian diesel.
The Commission responded by publishing a lower figure and stressing that it is seeking to end all imports of Russian gas.
European countries’ criticism of the deal displeased Washington, where President Donald Trump’s administration is trying to bring down sharply rising fuel prices ahead of November’s congressional elections. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent accused European countries of hypocrisy on Sunday.
Since 2022, the EU has taken significant steps to reduce its long-standing dependence on Russian pipeline gas and weaken Moscow’s war chest. Total imports of Russian gas, which accounted for 45 percent of all imports in 2021, have fallen to 12 percent, Itkonen said.
However, the EU still uses liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipped by sea. Russia remains the region’s second-largest LNG supplier after the United States, accounting for roughly 17 percent of total imports. Several countries, including Slovakia and Hungary, also have an exemption allowing them to import Russian gas by pipeline.
On Monday, Swedish Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard expressed regret in response to the figure released by Russia that the amount was higher than the 218,7 billion euros (5,3 trillion Kč) the EU has provided to support Ukraine since the start of the war.
North America's oil supply outlook is entering a new phase, according to Enverus' latest long-term analysis. In this Insights episode of the Oil & Gas Journal ReEnterprised podcast, Mikaila Adams, content strategist and managing editor, speaks with Dane Gregoris, managing director at Enverus, and discusses the firm's conclusion that US shale is "aging, not broken."
While the United States is expected to remain the continent's dominant producer, Enverus sees growth slowing markedly compared with the past two decades as operators work through increasingly mature inventories and confront geological constraints that are becoming harder to offset through efficiency gains alone.
The conversation examines the data behind that assessment, including declining productivity per lateral foot, changing inventory quality, and the methodology Enverus uses to estimate remaining drilling locations across North America's major basins. Gregoris explains why the firm expects US production to remain relatively stable over the next decade rather than continue the rapid expansion that defined the shale revolution, and why rising marginal supply costs could become an increasingly important market signal.
A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the Permian basin, which Enverus still views as the cornerstone of North American oil supply well into the 2040s. At the same time, the report suggests that even the Permian is experiencing the effects of resource maturation. Gregoris discusses evidence that operators are moving down the quality curve and shares his perspective on emerging technologies, including ultra-long laterals, lightweight proppants, and advanced surfactants, that could improve recoveries and alter the industry's long-term outlook.
The report's second major theme is the growing strategic importance of Canada. As US shale growth moderates, Enverus sees Canada's oil sands and liquids-rich plays as increasingly important sources of future supply. Gregoris explains why Canada's resource base offers substantially longer inventory duration than most US plays and how pipeline development, condensate availability, natural gas infrastructure, and LNG export capacity will influence the pace at which that potential can be realized.
The discussion concludes with a look toward 2035 and the broader implications for energy security, capital allocation, and global oil markets. For readers interested in the intersection of geology, economics, infrastructure, and policy, the episode provides a detailed examination of how Enverus believes the North American energy map could evolve as the industry's most productive shale resources mature.
Gold has come under renewed pressure yesterday after oil prices surged to new weekly highs. Overall, the situation in the Middle East hasn’t changed much as the Houthis continue to attack Saudi Arabia, while the US-Iran negotiations remain at a stalemate.
This is going to continue to cap the upside in gold unless the Fed turns more dovish than market’s expectations, leading to a fall in real yields.
Looking ahead, the focus will remain on US-Iran developments, but we also have the US CPI report tomorrow as a key near-term catalyst.
A hotter than expected core reading could raise the probabilities for a Fed rate hike in October, putting downward pressure on gold. A soft report, on the other hand, will likely ease rate hike concerns further and provide another boost to the precious metal.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can see that gold (CFD contract) is approaching the downward trendline. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 4,700 level next, with the 4,500 level as the first target.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, it looks like we got a fakeout yesterday as the price fell below the upward trendline and then rose back above it. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the downward trendline, with a defined risk above the 4,228 level, to target a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will need a break above the trendline and the 4,228 level to open the door for a rally into the 4,400 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as the sellers will be better off waiting for the price to come into the trendline, while the buyers will need a break. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow we have the US CPI report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the latest US Jobless Claims figures.
Ivanhoe Mines reported that the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo produced 76,401 mt of copper in saleable products in Q3 2026, up approximately 19% from 64,328 mt in Q2. The company maintained its 2026 production guidance of 290,000–310,000 mt, while stating that output is trending toward the lower end of the range.
Q3 saleable copper comprised 61,506 mt of copper in anode, 2,347 mt of toll-treated copper in blister, 5,645 mt of copper in slag concentrate, and 6,904 mt of high-grade copper fines designated for sale. Ivanhoe said the high-grade fines had been produced previously and stockpiled before being assayed, surveyed and designated for sale during the quarter.
The Phase 1, 2 and 3 concentrators processed a combined 3.493 million mt of ore during Q3, compared with 2.968 million mt in Q2. Combined feed grade averaged 2.22% copper, while recovery reached 87.6%, compared with 87.4% in the previous quarter. Copper contained in concentrate increased to 68,188 mt from 61,134 mt in Q2.
Mining rates across Kamoa and Kansoko increased by approximately 30% to more than 700,000 mt/month, equivalent to around 8.5 million mt/year. Ivanhoe said higher mining rates are expected to continue supporting production as underground operations recover.
Kamoa-Kakula’s on-site smelter remained at around 60% of its 500,000 mt/year design capacity during the quarter. The smelter also produced a record 118,638 mt of high-strength sulphuric acid in Q3. Ivanhoe continues to work on improving concentrate quality and reducing silica levels that have contributed to increased slag concentrate production.
Kamoa-Kakula’s Q3 saleable copper output increased approximately 19% quarter on quarter, supported by higher mining rates, increased concentrator throughput and the designation of previously stockpiled high-grade copper fines for sale.
However, Ivanhoe’s indication that 2026 production is trending toward the lower end of its 290,000–310,000 mt guidance range shows that the complex remains in a recovery and ramp-up phase.
Global industrial sulfur prices have surged from their typical range of $100 to $200 per metric ton to nearly $1,000—an almost tenfold increase. The supply chain crisis, triggered by shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, has ignited a fierce bidding war between mining giants and fertilizer producers, with global consumers likely to foot the bill through higher food prices.
Raghav Jain, head of sulfur at commodity price assessment agency Argus, notes that the mining industry—buoyed by windfall revenues from rising metal prices—is winning the bidding war in a supply-constrained market, squeezing out the lower-margin fertilizer sector.
Sulfur is a byproduct of the oil and gas industry and can be further processed into sulfuric acid, which is used both in copper production and in the manufacture of phosphate fertilizers. For most of this year, persistent shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have caused severe sulfur shortages. Before the outbreak of the Iran war, roughly half of the world's sulfur transited through this waterway. With the shipping lane blockaded, sulfur flows have shrunk dramatically and prices have soared.
Fertilizer Makers Forced to Cut Output
The agricultural sector is already feeling the shock. Fertilizer producers have been forced to reduce output and are warning that food prices will follow suit.
Andy Jung, chief economist at U.S. fertilizer company Mosaic, said the company cannot pass cost increases on to farmers given their limited ability to absorb them, so it has opted to slow production instead. He warned that at some point these impacts will show up significantly in global crop yields, and that's when food prices will start to spike.
OCP Group, the world's largest phosphate fertilizer exporter based in Morocco, also issued a warning last month that the sulfur price surge is taking a toll. The company said it cannot pass cost increases on to farmers who are already under immense financial pressure.
Faced with this predicament, OCP is attempting to adjust its product mix, shifting toward fertilizer varieties that consume less sulfur and accelerating the development of alternative raw material sources that do not depend on the oil and gas industry.
https://finance.biggo.com/news/94d21ab8-266f-4e1c-a4d2-04b7eb3f65ac
As the United States seeks to diversify its critical-mineral supply chains, a massive tungsten development in Kazakhstan is moving closer to becoming a significant source of the strategically important metal.
Cove Kaz Capital Group is combining with Skyline Builders Group, with the combined company expected to operate as Kaz Resources Inc. and continue trading on Nasdaq under the ticker KAZR. Paul Mann, Executive Chairman of Skyline Builders, is helping lead the company’s strategic transformation toward critical minerals and nuclear fuels, with a focus on supplying U.S. and allied markets.
At the center of the strategy is the Severniy Katpar tungsten project, one of the world’s largest undeveloped tungsten resources. The project contains approximately 1.4 million tons of tungsten trioxide, with a projected 50-plus-year mine life. Planned annual production is expected to equal roughly 15% of current global tungsten production.
Tungsten is used in applications ranging from defense and aerospace to industrial manufacturing and energy technologies. Its strategic importance has increased as the United States works to strengthen domestic and allied supply chains for critical minerals. China currently controls roughly 80% of global tungsten supply, while the United States has not produced tungsten domestically since 2015.
New U.S. Department of Defense sourcing restrictions scheduled to take effect Jan. 1, 2027, are adding urgency to efforts to establish alternative sources of supply.
A Strategic U.S.-Kazakhstan Partnership
The Severniy Katpar project also comes at a time of growing cooperation between the United States and Kazakhstan on critical minerals. U.S. government agencies have expressed significant interest in supporting the project’s development, including indicative financing interest of up to $900 million from the Export-Import Bank of the United States (EXIM) and up to $700 million from the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC).
The project has also received engagement from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the International Trade Administration.
Site preparation began in 2026, with drilling and feasibility work underway as the project advances toward its planned development and construction timeline.
The Kaz Resources leadership team includes executives with experience in developing strategic-mineral projects, including experience building USA Rare Earth and developing the Nui Phao tungsten operation in Vietnam.
For Mann, the project represents an opportunity to address a growing challenge facing the United States and its allies: securing reliable access to minerals essential to modern industry and national security.
China’s molybdenum prices have edged down slightly, with the prices of ferromolybdenum, sodium molybdate, and ammonium heptamolybdate all dropping by approximately RMB 1,000/ton. Despite this price adjustment, market trading volume has not seen a significant increase, and industry participants remain deeply concerned about the market outlook.
In the molybdenum concentrate market, a wait-and-see sentiment prevails. Amidst lackluster downstream demand and persistently tight spot supplies of raw materials, supplier quotes have remained largely stable, hovering around RMB 5,460/mtu.
The ferromolybdenum market is facing downward pressure. Intermediate smelters are grappling with the conflicting dynamics of scarce low-priced feedstock and declining prices in steel mill tenders, leading to a significant risk of cost-price inversion; consequently, quotes have been lowered slightly.
The market for molybdenum chemicals and related products remains sluggish. Prices for molybdate products have dipped marginally, weighed down by limited growth in end-user demand and waning confidence among raw material suppliers in maintaining price levels.
In terms of industry news, data from the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) indicates that during late September 2026, key steel enterprises produced a total of 18.81 million tonnes of crude steel. The average daily output was 1.881 million tonnes, representing a 2.1% decrease compared to the previous period. Regionally, daily crude steel output fell by 12,000 tonnes in North China, 9,000 tonnes in East China, 4,000 tonnes in Northwest China, and 25,000 tonnes in Central-South China, while it rose by 7,000 tonnes in Northeast China.
Price of molybdenum products on October 13, 2026
A workers’ strike at Antofagasta’s Centinela copper mine in Chile could reduce the operation’s November copper production by around 50% if the work stoppage continues, according to union representatives.
The strike began on October 7 after two unions rejected further negotiations with Antofagasta Minerals following the failure of government-mediated talks to produce an agreement. The labour groups represent more than half of Centinela’s critical mine operators and more than 60% of equipment maintenance workers.
The unions said the initial operational impact is expected to worsen gradually because mining and mine-development activities have been affected, while a large volume of waste rock still needs to be removed. They expect the full effect of the strike to become more visible in November, when production could fall by as much as half.
Antofagasta has said it continues to maintain its production guidance despite the strike and declined to comment on the unions’ estimate of the potential November production impact.
The dispute centres on differences in pay and benefits between union groups. Labour representatives are seeking equivalent benefits for employees regardless of union affiliation, while Antofagasta has said bargaining schedules have been separated since 2020 and wage adjustments have been negotiated at different times.
The union estimate of a potential 50% decline in November production materially increases the supply significance of the Centinela strike compared with the initial work stoppage. However, the estimate has not been confirmed by Antofagasta, which continues to maintain its production guidance. The scale of any actual copper loss will therefore depend on the duration of the strike, the extent of disruption to mining and maintenance activities, and whether negotiations resume before November.
Today, HRC futures rose before falling, with the most-traded HC2701 contract closing at 3,254 yuan/mt, down 0.34% for the day. The spot market fell by 10-20 yuan/mt, with intraday trading average. From a fundamental perspective, in terms of supply, this week's HRC impact from maintenance was 193,800 mt, up 53,400 mt WoW. Next week's HRC impact from maintenance is expected at 144,900 mt, down 48,800 mt WoW. On the demand side, incremental fiscal policies for Q4 have been implemented, but their boost to end-use demand for steel remains to be verified. Looking at the latest industry chain data, the property cycle downtrend is hard to reverse, NEV sales are on a YoY downtrend, and the export tax rebate rate will be cut by another 4 percentage points starting April 1 next year. End-use demand performance is weak, so HRC destocking pressure is expected to increase, and HRC prices will continue to fluctuate weakly.
India's Iron Ore and Pellet Exports Hit Near Four-Year Low in September 2026
India's exports of iron ore and pellets dropped sharply in September 2026, falling 67.2 percent from the previous month to 0.7 million tonnes, according to BigMint. The figure represents the lowest monthly volume in almost four years, with the last comparable low recorded in November 2022, when volumes stood at around 0.3 million tonnes following the introduction of export duties.
Breaking down the September total, exports of fine and lump ore reached 0.15 million tonnes, while pellet exports accounted for 0.55 million tonnes. Malaysia emerged as the largest destination during the period, receiving 0.22 million tonnes. China followed, though shipments of Indian iron ore to that country fell to 0.19 million tonnes in September, down from 1.63 million tonnes in August.
Several factors contributed to the decline in export volumes over the month. Weaker Chinese purchases, a decline in iron ore production within India, and stable domestic prices all weighed on overseas shipments. In China, the market was adversely affected by narrowing steelworks margins and an increase in maintenance work on blast furnaces.
Domestic prices for iron ore materials in India rose during September, making exports less attractive. The average monthly export offer for pellets stood at 7,660 Indian rupees per tonne, compared with 9,530 rupees per tonne on the domestic market.
Looking at the broader picture, India reduced exports of iron ore and pellets by 15 percent year-on-year in the 2025/2026 financial year, which ended on 31 March, bringing the total to 25.78 million tonnes. During that period, the country sold this raw material predominantly to China, which accounted for over 90 percent of overseas shipments.