Indian Prime Minister Modi hailed the agreement on critical minerals and rare earths as a ‘major step towards building resilient supply chains’.
By Edna Mohamed and AFP
Published On 21 Feb 202621 Feb 2026
Brazil and India have signed an agreement to boost cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths, as the Indian government seeks new suppliers to curb its dependence on China.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Saturday and discussed boosting trade and investment opportunities.
Modi said in a statement that the agreement on critical minerals and rare earths was a “major step towards building resilient supply chains”.
China dominates the mining and processing of the world’s rare-earth and critical minerals, and has increased its grip on exports in recent months as the United States attempts to break its hold on the growing industry.
Still, for Brazil, which follows China as the world’s second-largest holder of critical minerals, its resources are used across a range of fields, including electric vehicles, solar panels, smartphones, jet engines, and guided missiles.
In a statement, Lula said, “increasing investments and cooperation in matters of renewable energies and critical minerals is at the core of the pioneering agreement that we have signed today.”
While few details have emerged about the mineral deal so far, demand for iron ore, a material for which Brazil is the second-largest producer and exporter after Australia, in India has grown amid rapid infrastructure expansion and industrial growth.
Rishabh Jain, an expert with the New Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water think tank, told the AFP news agency that India’s growing cooperation with Brazil on critical minerals follows recent supply chain engagements with the US, France and the European Union.
“Global South alliances are critical for securing diversified, on-ground resource access and shaping emerging rules of global trade”, Jain told AFP.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi shakes hands with Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva before their meeting at the Hyderabad House in New Delhi [Sajjad Hussain/AFP]
Trade agreements
India’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson announced that, along with the critical minerals and rare earths deal, nine other agreements were signed, including a memorandum of understanding that ranged from digital cooperation to health.
Moreover, Modi called Brazil India’s “largest trading partner in Latin America”.
“We are committed to taking our bilateral trade beyond $20bn in the coming five years,” he said.
“Our trade is not just a figure, but a reflection of trust,” Modi said, adding that “When India and Brazil work together, the voice of [the] Global South becomes stronger and more confident.”
India’s Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar also said he was confident that Lula’s talks with Modi “will impart a new momentum to our ties”.
According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) in 2024, Indian exports to Brazil reached $7.23bn, with refined petroleum being the main export. On the other hand, Brazilian exports to India reached $5.38bn, with raw sugar being the main export.
Investors have shifted their appetite from tech and megacaps into sectors that have been playing “catch-up” and benefiting from AI-fueled investments.
Stocks broke a two-week losing streak on Friday, but year to date, Tech (XLK) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY), along with Financials (XLF), remain negative.
"Money's coming out of this big behemoth. Money's moving out of tech," Truist chief investment officer and chief market strategist Keith Lerner told Yahoo Finance.
Lerner noted the rotation away from Magnificent Seven giants like Microsoft (MSFT), e-commerce and cloud leader Amazon (AMZN), and EV maker Tesla (TSLA).
Meanwhile, sectors that underperformed last year have been making big gains.
Energy stocks (XLE) are up 22% since the start of the year. Rising oil prices and continued demand for oil have sent shares of Chevron (CVX) and ExxonMobil (XOM) up 20% and 22%, respectively.
Materials (XLB) and Industrial stocks (XLI) are also up 15% and 14% as AI infrastructure buildouts and reshoring accelerate.
Meanwhile, investors have turned to defensive areas of the market like Consumer Staples (XLP), with consumer giant Walmart (WMT) hitting an all-time high earlier this month.
Year-to-date sector action on Friday, Feb 20
Although portfolio rebalancing — where investors shift from overvalued sectors into more stable areas — typically happens at the start of the year, this year’s rotation has been amplified by volatility.
A sell-off in pockets of the tech sector began last month amid fears that artificial intelligence could take over tasks traditionally handled by enterprise software companies.
The Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) is down 23% year to date.
The "AI scare trade" has now spread from software to wealth management and logistics.
Cybersecurity firms were the latest to get hit on Friday after Anthropic announced a new security tool. Shares of CrowdStrike (CRWD) dropped 5%, while Zscaler (ZS) and Cloudflare (NET) also fell 4% and 6%, respectively.
“Everyone's kind of going through each one, sector by sector, industry by industry, trying to figure out where the AI disruption is going to be beyond just within tech itself,” Lerner said.
Profit growth and the easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve should help the stock market continue to broaden. Polymarket betters are predicting two to three rate cuts in 2026. (Disclosure: Yahoo Finance has a partnership with Polymarket.)
"With the easing cycle still intact, and the US economy showing resilience ... we expect healthy and broadening profit growth across sectors," UBS strategists said on Thursday.
Senegal's total trade rose 19.4% to 13,214.3 billion CFA francs (approximately $23.76 million) in 2025, from 11,070.5 billion CFA francs in 2024, according to the latest foreign trade bulletin published on Thursday by the National Agency for Statistics and Demography (ANSD).
Imports edged up 1.6% to 7,279.1 billion CFA francs, compared with 7,161.4 billion CFA francs a year earlier. In December, imports fell to 544.8 billion CFA francs, down 24.6% year-on-year and 23.6% from November’s 713.3 billion CFA francs, reflecting lower purchases of transport equipment, pharmaceutical products and sugar. Senegal’s main suppliers that month were China, France, Russia, India and the Netherlands.
Exports jumped 51.8% to 5,935.2 billion CFA francs in 2025, up from 3,909.1 billion CFA francs in 2024. In December, exports surged to 825.3 billion CFA francs, up 155% from November’s 323.6 billion CFA francs and 104.1% higher than a year earlier. Key destinations were Switzerland, Belgium, Mali, Spain and the United Kingdom.
The ANSD said the strong year-end performance was supported by higher shipments of non-monetary gold, crude oil and refined petroleum products. Lower exports of phosphates and seafood partly offset the gains.
Senegal’s economy grew by an estimated 7.9% in 2025, according to the International Monetary Fund, driven by oil and gas production and a rebound in agriculture.
Lydie Mobio
KYIV: Ukrainian forces carried out a strike on a key industrial facility, which produces ballistic missiles, in Russia’s Udmurt region, DW reported, citing Ukrainian General Staff.
Udmurt Republic head Alexander Brechalov confirmed the incident, stating on Telegram that “one of the republic’s facilities was attacked by drones” launched by Ukraine.
The Ukrainian military said it deployed domestically developed Flamingo missiles to hit the site, located around 1,400 kilometres from Ukraine.
DW, citing Russian news Telegram channel Astra, reported that the intended target was the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant, a state-owned facility known for producing Iskander ballistic missiles and nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
Footage shared by residents showed thick black smoke billowing over the area, with several buildings in Votkinsk sustaining damage, including shattered windows. Authorities temporarily suspended operations at multiple airports in the region following the strike.
In a separate statement, the Ukrainian military said it also struck a gas processing plant in Russia’s Samara region, DW reported.
The attack comes days after US-mediated talks between Moscow and Kyiv concluded in Switzerland without any breakthrough. The meeting marked the third round of discussions facilitated by Washington, following earlier sessions in Abu Dhabi that officials had termed constructive but yielded no concrete progress.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed Russia launched a massive strike with 29 missiles and about 400 drones
According to a statement by Zelenskyy, nine people, including children, were injured in the attack.
In a video message posted on X, Zelenskyy slammed Moscow, saying that the strike shows its “true intent.” The Ukrainian President claimed that Kyiv shot down 25 of 29 missiles fired by Russia.
He said, “In the massive strike with which the Russians began the day, 29 missiles of various types were fired, and 25 were shot down. This is an important result for our air defence, and once again, we emphasise that air defence is a daily necessity. I thank all our partners who understand this. Russia greets with a strike even the very day new formats begin in Geneva–trilateral and bilateral with the United States. This very clearly shows what Russia wants and what it is truly intent on. Almost 400 drones were launched as well. (ANI)
https://english.nepalnews.com/s/international/ukraine-strikes-russias-key-missile-plant-in-udmurt/
The European Commission has urged Washington to stick to the terms of last year’s EU-US trade agreement, after US President Donald Trump unveiled fresh global tariff hikes that have rattled markets and raised fresh legal questions.
Issued on: 23/02/2026 - 12:28
By:RFIFollow
In a firm but measured statement released on Sunday, the EU Commission stressed that commitments made between the two sides must be respected. “A deal is a deal,” it said, underlining that the European Union expects the United States to honour the joint understanding reached in 2025 – just as Brussels says it continues to do.
The appeal comes at a delicate momen, following President Trump's announcement of a temporary increase in global import duties to 15 percent on Saturday – a move that has injected new uncertainty into global trade flows. It came hot on the heels of a US Supreme Court ruling that deemed much of Trump's tariff strategy is unlawful, leaving policymakers and businesses alike trying to piece together what comes next.
Under the existing EU-US agreement, tariffs on most European goods were capped at 15 percent. Brussels made clear it expects that ceiling to remain intact, insisting that European products should continue to benefit from the “most competitive treatment” agreed previously.
At the same time, the Commission struck a constructive tone, emphasising the importance of dialogue. It said it remained in “close and continuous contact” with US officials, including recent discussions between EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic and his American counterparts.
Seeking clarity amid uncertainty
While both sides appear keen to keep communication lines open, the legal backdrop has complicated matters. The Commission has formally requested clarification from Washington on how it intends to respond to the Supreme Court’s decision on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act – the legal basis for many of Trump’s tariffs.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer sought to reassure partners, saying existing trade agreements with the EU and others remain in force. “We expect to stand by them. We expect our partners to stand by them,” he said in a television interview, signalling a willingness to maintain continuity despite the court ruling.
Yet questions linger. European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde acknowledged the uncertainty, noting that the implications of the ruling are still not fully understood. “I hope it’s going to be clarified,” she said, echoing a broader sentiment across European institutions.
The timing is particularly sensitive, as the European Parliament’s trade committee had been preparing to approve the EU-US deal this week, but the legal ambiguity now casts doubt over whether that process will move ahead as planned.
Rising tensions – but room for dialogue
Within the European Parliament, calls are growing for caution. Trade committee chairperson Bernd Lange said he would push to pause legislative work until there is greater legal certainty and clearer commitments from Washington.
His assessment was blunt, describing the situation as “tariff chaos” and warning that businesses and policymakers are struggling to make sense of rapidly shifting signals. Even so, his call for clarity rather than confrontation suggests Brussels is keen to keep negotiations on track.
Analysts, meanwhile, see a more strategic dimension to the latest US moves. Economists at Dutch banking group ING have suggested the tariff hikes could be a temporary manoeuvre – “smoke and mirrors” – giving the administration time to explore alternative legal routes, such as measures tied to unfair trade practices.
That possibility hints at a familiar dynamic in transatlantic trade relations: periods of tension followed by renewed negotiation. Even if the European Parliament were to seek changes to the current deal, Washington could still deploy other tariff tools to encourage fresh talks.
The Supreme Court ruling itself marks a rare judicial setback for Trump on a cornerstone of his economic agenda, one that has reshaped global trade patterns and prompted responses from partners worldwide.
For now, countries are watching closely and weighing their options.
Key Events
I posted a Brent chart analysis on Friday detailing the key levels and setups currently facing crude. The bullish structure clearly carries inflationary and rate expectation implications. However, with global tariff risks resurfacing, prices are facing more than just US–Iran truce risks that could trigger another bearish pullback.
Key levels remain intact despite swinging headlines and shifting catalysts.
From a price action perspective, crude oil has maintained a bullish bias since December 2025, supported by winter demand and supply disruption concerns. The recent rebound above the 65 mark aligns with upside hedging activity in options markets, alongside investor rotation out of software and AI, and even financials, into defense and energy.
However, as risk-off appetite looms and global tariff threats intensify, this mix could cap crude’s strength as it tests the upper bound of a 2023–2026 descending channel for the third time this year, placing the market at a potential structural breakout point.
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
Key resistance currently sits near 66.80. A break above this level exposes 68.40, 70.40, and 74, levels last seen during the June 2025 Middle East escalation.
A weekly close above 74 would confirm a structural shift, opening the door toward 80 and reinforcing longer-term bullish expectations, with potential implications for renewed global inflation pressures and prolonged rate-hold expectations.
Failure to hold above 62 would reassert bearish dominance, shifting focus back toward the 50s. Such a reversal would likely be supported by either a US–Iran truce or escalating global tariff fears weighing on growth expectations.
With the energy sector leading in a risk-off environment, overall sentiment remains cautious. The CNN Fear & Greed Index continues to signal fear, with readings below 50, although conditions have improved slightly from earlier in the week.
This dynamic raises both contrarian interest and the risk of sharp reversals.
Source: CNN
This sentiment tone, combined with elevated crude prices, is sustaining haven demand. Gold and silver are holding near key breakout levels near 5,100 and 80, while the DXY tests resistance near 97.70.
Renewed tariff risks may also cap gains in energy and havens, portraying a setup similar to April 2025 — one that could trigger a broader momentum reset before primary bull trends comfortably resume their course.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
Russia’s oil production has fallen from 9.6 million barrels per day to 9.1 million, over four years of its invasion of Ukraine, while discounts on its crude have widened sharply, the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) said.
Within a month of the outbreak of war, the price gap between Brent crude and Russia’s Urals blend widened from USD 4 to more than USD 30 per barrel, PIE noted.
At the start of 2026, the spread stood at around USD 10–11 per barrel. In practice, however, due to weak demand for surplus Russian inventories, crude is being sold at additional discounts of up to USD 20 below Brent quotations.
According to the institute, the pricing pressure has translated into a marked decline in Russian budget revenues. In 2022, proceeds from oil and gas sales accounted for 7.5 percent of Russia’s GDP. By 2025, that share had fallen to 4 percent.
The institute recalled that at the outset of the war the European Union was the largest importer of Russian oil. The bloc has since reduced Russia’s share in its oil imports from 44 percent in 2021 to 7 percent currently, with Slovakia and Hungary accounting for all remaining imports, as both oppose a full phase-out of Russian crude.
In the third quarter of 2025, Russian oil and petroleum products represented 1.5 percent of total EU imports, compared with 26 percent in the first quarter of 2022, PIE said.
Lost EU sales have been partly offset by higher exports to China and India. While the value of exports to China has remained steady at around USD 200 million per day since mid-2022, exports to India have nearly halved in recent months — from USD 100–120 million per day in 2025 to around USD 60–70 million per day in 2026.
PIE said the drop in Indian imports reflects pressure from the United States. Imports of Russian crude by India may decline further under a planned India–US agreement that envisages increased purchases of US oil.
(tf)
Source: PAP
Shafaq News- Erbil
Iraq, including the Kurdistan Region, must be kept away from the risk of war amid a potential US-Iran confrontation, Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Interior Minister Rebar Ahmed said on Sunday.
Ahmed told reporters that “Kurdistan will not be a source of threat to any country,” adding that the Region seeks stable and friendly relations with its neighbors.
US President Donald Trump said on February 19 that Iran had 15 days to reach what he described as a “meaningful deal” or face consequences, while Tehran reaffirmed its right to continue uranium enrichment. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has stressed that “global powers are lining up to force us to bow our heads, but we will not bow.”
The two sides resumed Omani-mediated talks this month, holding rounds in Muscat and Geneva. Meanwhile, the New York Times, citing satellite imagery and flight data, reported that more than 60 US attack aircraft are stationed at Jordan’s Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, nearly triple the usual number, with at least 68 transport aircraft arriving since February 15.
https://www.shafaq.com/en/Kurdistan/Iraqi-Kurdistan-to-avoid-any-Middle-East-war-KRG-minister-says
By Irina Slav - Feb 22, 2026, 6:00 PM CST
Crude oil prices on Thursday settled at the highest in six months, with Brent crude topping $71 per barrel and WTI over $66. However, this may be just the start of a much stronger rally—it all depends on developments between the United States and Iran.
The latest round of negotiations between the two on Iran’s nuclear program started well enough, with both sides signaling they wanted to make a deal. Iran’s Foreign Minister signaled there was progress being made, saying the negotiating teams had agreed on “guiding principles.” However, there were still sticking points, and while these were not detailed by anyone in an official capacity, the U.S. president apparently lost patience and issued a grave warning to Iran: make a deal or “Otherwise bad things happen.”
In evidence of just how fast geopolitical tensions could escalate, Iran responded with its own warning, saying that “in the event that it is subjected to military aggression, Iran will respond decisively and proportionately” in a letter to the United Nations.
“All bases, facilities, and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets,” Tehran also warned. “The United States would bear full and direct responsibility for any unpredictable and uncontrolled consequences.”
Backing these warnings with actions, the United States has been building up its already sizable military presence in the Persian Gulf, while Iran has been engaging in military drills, first in the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week, and then in the Gulf of Oman, together with Russia.
In such an environment, it is actually surprising that oil prices have now soared much higher. Iran is, after all, a major oil producer, with over 3 million barrels in daily output. Non-OPEC production growth is great for global supply numbers and the glut story still dominates energy reporting, but the disruption of 3 million barrels in daily production can hardly be brushed off, especially if the conflict spreads across the Middle East.
Indeed, Reuters columnist Clyde Russell noted this week that oil traders are acting as though they expect that “everything will turn out fine”. There is a very good reason for such expectations. President Trump may want to make Iran stop its nuclear program, but he also wants gas for American drivers to remain cheap—and that won’t be possible with a war in the Middle East. There is also the reputational aspect of Trump presenting himself as a peacemaker, although an argument could be put forward that the ultimate goal of what the U.S. is doing to Iran is peace.
There is still a risk of further escalation leading to an oil supply disruption, however. And it may come at a bad moment for those who assume the world is oversupplied with crude oil. It was this assumption that kept a lid on prices over the past year or so despite earlier flare-ups in the Middle East and the sanctions against Russia. There was too much oil in the world anyway, so disruptions would not threaten availability, the assumption went. But this week served more bullish news that could challenge that assumption.
Earlier this week, the Joint Organizations Data Initiative reported that global oil demand had dropped by over 600,000 barrels daily in December 2025 compared to the previous month and by over 530,000 barrels daily from a year earlier. Production of oil was higher, both within OPEC and outside it. However, inventories were down, by 22 million barrels to a total that was 111.7 million barrels below the five-year average. That does not really say glut.
“Oil glut predictions are seriously exaggerated,” Saudi Aramco’s chief executive, Amin Nasser, said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos last month. Global oil stocks are low, while the amassed barrels in floating storage on tankers are mostly sanctioned supplies, the CEO of the world’s biggest oil firm and top crude exporter said at the time.
What’s more, spare capacity has dwindled over the past year, also limiting potential efforts to boost output in case of major supply disruptions, said Nasser. “It (spare capacity) is at 2.5%, and we need a minimum of 3%. If OPEC+ further unwinds cuts, spare capacity will fall even further, and we will need to watch this very carefully,” he said.
Put the risk of a war in the Middle East next to the lower spare capacity and sanctioned barrels, and the glut begins to look quite a bit less certain. Of course, it should be noted that the risk of war should not be overestimated, as well as underestimated. As Reuters’ Russell noted in his column, the track record of wars in the Middle East suggests the likelihood of an oil supply disruption is limited. Yet it is very much present, if only to make oil traders’ lives more difficult.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Traders-May-Be-Pricing-Iran-Risk-Too-Lightly.html
CryptoNews Net 2026/02/22 12:03
Bitcoin sometimes sells off hard on days with no crypto headlines. A recurring driver sits outside crypto: a yen-funded carry unwind that forces cross-asset deleveraging, then transmits into $BTC through thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and fast position reduction in derivatives.
Here's the core mechanism in one line: if USD/JPY moves fast enough to trigger margin and VAR cuts, $BTC can sell off like it got bad news even when crypto headlines stay quiet.
Japan’s FX officials have started speaking in a way that markets treat as a constraint. On Feb. 12, 2026, Japan’s top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, said Tokyo “has not lowered its guard” against FX volatility after a sharp move in the yen, and he said authorities are watching markets with “high urgency” while staying in close contact with US counterparts.
When messaging shifts toward urgency, carry positioning often becomes more sensitive to speed and to levels that traders associate with intervention risk. That turns USD/JPY into a “don’t get caught” market where traders cut carry exposure earlier and faster.
BIS data helps frame the stakes: yen-denominated loans to non-banks resident outside Japan rose to about ¥40 trillion by March 2024, roughly $250 billion using BIS’ conversion at the time. A channel with that scale can influence global risk conditions, and crypto trades inside those conditions.
The effect on crypto is mechanical. A carry unwind can start in FX, spread into equities and credit via higher volatility and tighter risk limits, then reach Bitcoin as a risk reduction flow. Bitcoin’s price action can look idiosyncratic in the moment, then line up cleanly with global deleveraging once you track what happened to funding conditions and cross-asset volatility.
Yen carry trade, in plain English
A carry trade borrows in a low-rate currency and invests in assets with a higher expected return, collecting the rate differential as long as the funding leg stays stable. The yen served as a funding currency for years because Japan ran very low policy rates, and a large domestic savings base supported cheap funding.
Carry thrives when volatility stays contained. Low FX volatility reduces the probability of a fast mark-to-market move against the funding leg that holds the trade together. That lets market participants run more leverage for essentially the same risk budget.
The risk sits in the same place as it does for every carry trade: the funding currency can strengthen quickly, or FX volatility can jump, raising the cost of holding leveraged exposure. At that point, carry income becomes secondary to managing margin requirements and risk limits.
BIS Bulletin No. 90 describes the transmission clearly in its review of the August 2024 turbulence. A spike in volatility tightened margin constraints, and that pressure forced deleveraging in positions associated with carry trades. This is the bridge into crypto: a volatility shock that forces deleveraging across portfolios often turns into correlated selling of liquid risk assets, including bitcoin.
What changed in Japan: urgency, intervention sensitivity, and faster position reduction
Japan’s FX messaging matters because it can alter how traders model the distribution of outcomes. When officials emphasize “high urgency” and keep intervention risk in the conversation, positioning tends to become more reactive to fast moves.
On Feb. 12, the yen strengthened to around 153.02 per dollar after rebounding from nearly 160, a level widely treated as a potential intervention line. The move stirred speculation around rate checks, which markets often interpret as a precursor signal around intervention optics.
A fast swing like that matters even when the macro story looks unchanged. A large share of leveraged risk books operate with speed-based limits and VAR-style controls that tighten when volatility picks up. When USD/JPY moves several figures quickly, it can compress risk budgets across multi-asset portfolios, and that compression leads to broad exposure cuts.
On Feb. 13, the yen was on track for its strongest weekly gain in about 15 months, up close to 3% for the week. A weekly move of that magnitude in a funding currency can influence the behavior of carry participants, especially those running leverage through derivatives, where margin requirements are the quickest to reprice. Reuters also noted close coordination of language with US counterparts on FX policy, which can raise the perceived cost of holding large short-yen positions during volatility.
The plumbing that links yen funding to $BTC
This is a leverage-to-liquidity chain reaction.
The transmission from yen funding to bitcoin usually runs through portfolios and market structure, rather than through a simple yen-Bitcoin carry trade.
1) Multi-asset funds and macro pods
Many large books run equities, rates, FX, and credit as a single risk system, and some hold $BTC exposure through futures, options, or listed products. When FX volatility rises and funding conditions tighten, the risk system often requires gross exposure reduction. Bitcoin frequently sits in the same high beta bucket as growth equities and tighter-spread credit.
2) Prime brokerage and synthetic funding
A large share of leverage runs through instruments that synthesize funding across currencies. FX swaps and forwards can embed yen funding in strategies that never present themselves as carry trades in a simple way. Prime brokers and margin systems then translate higher volatility into higher required collateral. When collateral needs rise, exposure cuts happen quickly.
3) Offshore non-bank channels
BIS research provides scale anchors that help quantify how large the yen-linked channel has become outside Japan. BIS Global Liquidity Indicators show that yen-denominated loans to non-banks resident outside Japan rose to about ¥40 trillion by March 2024, roughly $250 billion using BIS’ conversion at the time. The same BIS bulletin notes that cross-border yen bank claims on certain offshore non-bank segments exceeded ¥80 trillion before the August 2024 episode.
Those numbers matter because they frame capacity. A large yen-funded channel can influence global risk conditions even when a specific asset is not directly financed in yen. When that channel tightens, the tightening can reach Bitcoin through cross-asset deleveraging and liquidity conditions.
BIS also noted that cryptoassets sold off sharply during that August 2024 turbulence, with Bitcoin and Ethereum posting losses of up to 20% during the episode. The value of that reference in February 2026 sits in the mechanism: a volatility shock can force margin-driven selling across assets, and crypto can be part of that selling even when crypto-specific news stays quiet.
What a carry-driven deleveraging wave looks like inside crypto
When carry exposure unwinds through a margin channel, crypto markets often show a familiar set of internal moves. Treat them as recurring symptoms that tend to cluster when leverage exits quickly.
Perpetual funding and basis reprice quickly.
Funding rates can swing as leveraged longs cut exposure and hedges become more expensive. Basis compresses when leverage exits, and cash-and-carry positioning gets reduced.
Open interest compresses as positions close
A rapid open interest decline often appears during forced exposure reduction. This can happen across exchanges at the same time because the underlying driver sits in risk limits, rather than in an exchange-specific event.
Spreads widen and depth thins.
Liquidity providers often reduce quoted size during volatility spikes. Depth at the top of the book can thin significantly, and execution quality deteriorates. In that environment, smaller market orders can produce larger price movements.
Cross-asset correlation tightens.
Bitcoin can trade closely with equity index futures during the highest-stress window. This behavior often follows a broad risk reduction wave where the marginal seller is cutting exposures across multiple lines.
ETF flow sensitivity increases.
When order books thin out, steady ETF inflows can absorb supply more effectively. When flows turn negative, the market loses a stabilizing buyer during a period when liquidity is already constrained.
The BIS framing is useful because it ties these symptoms back to the same root driver: volatility spikes tighten margins and force synchronized deleveraging across assets.
The 5-signal checklist for a yen-driven deleveraging window
This checklist helps recognize the regime early and treat Bitcoin price action as a margin event when multiple signals align.
1) USD/JPY speed plus official language
Watch for fast multi-figure moves over one to two sessions, paired with language about vigilance and urgency. Tripwire: a 2 to 3% USD/JPY move in 24 to 48 hours, plus official “vigilance” or “urgency” language. The Feb. 12 Reuters report provides a concrete example of both: a move from near 160 to around 153 and a public emphasis on high urgency.
2) Cross-asset volatility shock
Track equity volatility and short-dated implied volatility behavior. A jump in volatility often travels with higher margins and tighter risk limits.
3) Credit and funding stress proxy
Watch for widening credit spreads, repo frictions, or collateral signals. These often travel with broad deleveraging.
4) Crypto internals: funding, basis, open interest, spreads
Track simultaneous moves: funding reprices, basis compresses, open interest declines, and spreads widen. This combination often accompanies rapid leverage reduction.
5) ETF flow trend as cushion strength
Track the 7-day average of net flows for the major US spot Bitcoin ETFs. A steady inflow pattern can help absorb supply when liquidity thins. A run of outflows can remove that support during a deleveraging window.
A practical way to apply this framework is to treat it as a hierarchy. Start with FX speed and official language, because that is where yen carry stress often shows first. Then check whether cross-asset volatility reprices at the same time. Add a credit or funding proxy to confirm that the stress is systemic rather than localized. Then use crypto internals to identify whether leverage is leaving. When all four layers align, the microstructure outcome tends to be similar: thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and more price movement per unit of flow.
Takeaway
A fast USD/JPY move plus a cross-asset volatility jump often creates a margin regime that reaches Bitcoin through deleveraging and liquidity conditions. The scale of the yen-linked channel is large enough to move markets that look far removed from the currency. Bitcoin trades inside that global funding system.
Start with USD/JPY speed plus official language.
Confirm with cross-asset volatility and margin stress.
Validate with crypto internals: funding, open interest, and depth.
That sequence captures the mechanism that links yen carry conditions to $BTC price action.
AngloGold Ashanti's Siguiri gold mine in Guinea produced 289,000 ounces in 2025, up 6% year on year, the South African miner said in its annual results published on Friday.
The increase was driven primarily by a 15% jump in fourth-quarter output, reflecting improved gold recovery rates at the processing plant and higher throughput. Higher metal prices lifted the mine's annual revenue to $990 million, compared with $653 million in 2024.
Siguiri accounted for 9% of AngloGold Ashanti's total production. The company also operates mines in Ghana and Tanzania, holds a 50% interest in the Sukari mine in Egypt, and a 45% stake in the Kibali mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which is managed by Barrick Gold.
Including output from its operations in the Americas and Australia, AngloGold Ashanti produced 3.1 million ounces in 2025, up 16% year on year, in line with its targets. The company forecast 2026 gold production of between 2.8 million and 3.1 million ounces.
Emiliano Tossou
A gold rush has gripped an informal settlement east of the South African city of Johannesburg, after reports spread a few days ago about the discovery of some gold particles.
Springs, once a booming gold town, saw its mines close several years ago
A resident in a poor neighbourhood of the former mining town of Springs claimed to have found several nuggets while digging at an outdoor enclosure used for cattle.
Dozens of people have now descended on the area and have been digging up the fenced area where the cows were once penned in, hoping to strike it rich.
Armed with pickaxes and shovels, they have been sifting through the soil in scenes reminiscent of the gold rush that helped build South Africa's financial capital more than a century ago.
Springs was once a booming gold town, but its mines were closed several years ago because the extreme depth of the shafts made operations uneconomical.
Some people told the BBC they had found some gold
The town is now surrounded by informal settlements many of whose residents are migrants from neighbouring countries.
South Africa's Department of Mineral Resources has condemned this week's mining activity in Spring's informal settlement of Gugulethu, calling it illegal and warning that it is damaging the environment.
A person uses a plate to check for small flecks of gold
Some of those digging at the site have told the BBC that they have been able to find gold and have sold it on the black market.
Dangerous chemicals like mercury and sodium cyanide are used to separate the gold from the ore.
Just one gram of gold is worth about $100 (£74)
"We know this is illegal. We want the government to give us mining permits so we can work and pay tax," one man, who did not want to be named, told the BBC.
He explained that as a father of two children he needed to earn money to put them through school and put food on the table.
A miner washes soil searching for gold
Another man told the BBC: "This is the only hustle we know. It has saved many of us from being arrested for committing serious and violent crimes."
A gram of gold is worth about $100 (£74).
By contrast, the monthly minimum wage in South Africa is $368 (£270).
Small nuggets of gold are visible in a pan in a residue of water and soil
Many of those busy digging during the BBC's visit said they originally hailed from the neighbouring Lesotho.
At around 14:00 local time after the end of the school day, children started arriving at the site.
They had gone home first to change out of their uniforms and then rushed to the cattle enclosure to help their parents dig for gold.
While visiting the site, the BBC found that some of the ground had become unstable.
"Unregulated excavation may result in ground instability, placing nearby communities and particularly children at significant risk of injury or loss of life," the mining ministry warned in its statement on Tuesday.
So-called illegal mining is common in South Africa, and numerous people have died over the years while working in unsafe conditions.
Last week, President Cyril Ramaphosa said he would deploy the army to help the police fight criminal gangs and illegal mining in the country.
The authorities blame illegal miners, known as "zama zamas", typically armed, undocumented foreign nationals, for their involvement in organised crime syndicates.
There is no official indication that this is at play in Springs.
Proposed tungsten and molybdenum projects signal growing Western interest in Uzbekistan’s resource potential.
Photo: gtreview
Global commodities firm Traxys has announced plans to invest up to $1 bn in Uzbekistan’s critical minerals sector, focusing on tungsten and molybdenum projects, following talks between President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and U.S. business leaders in Washington.
The initiative includes cooperation with state-linked partners such as Navoiyuran and the Uzbekistan Plant of Technological Metals, as well as plans to open a Traxys representative office in Tashkent. The headline target is production of around 150 tons per year, though details on product types and processing routes have not been disclosed.
Industry observers note that Traxys operates primarily as a trading and supply-chain financing player rather than a traditional miner, suggesting the project may rely on structured offtake agreements and financing mechanisms instead of direct mine ownership.
Uzbekistan has been positioning itself as an emerging player in critical minerals, leveraging its resource base and efforts to attract foreign investment. Analysts say the Traxys plan could help diversify global supply chains for specialty metals, particularly as Western economies seek alternatives to China’s dominance in tungsten production.
However, key technical and financial details, including reserves, processing plans and investment structure, remain unclear, meaning the project is still at an early, framework stage.
From economics and politics to business, technology and culture, Kursiv Uzbekistan brings you key news and in-depth analysis from Uzbekistan and around the world. To stay up to date and get the latest stories in real time, follow our Telegram channel
Currently, Qingdao (KORE 62% Fe) quotes are at their lowest level since August 2025
Prices for Qingdao iron ore (KORE 62% Fe) fell by 6.3% to $100.26/t CFR between December 26, 2025, and February 20, 2026. Currently, quotations are at their lowest level since August 2025.
At the beginning of 2026, the iron ore market was influenced by a combination of seasonal and fundamental factors that gradually shifted the balance toward excess supply. Although prices attempted to stabilize at the end of January due to pre-holiday restocking by Chinese steelmakers ahead of the Lunar New Year, this effect proved to be short-lived.
In the second half of January, prices were temporarily supported by purchases from steel mills, which were building up stocks to ensure continuous operation during the holidays. Futures markets and rising coking coal prices were additional factors for optimism. However, even during this period, statistics showed a deterioration in fundamental indicators: steel inventories at plants grew, and construction activity declined due to weather conditions and the seasonal slowdown.
By the end of January, support from restocking began to run out. Steel producers limited purchases due to weak margins and cautious financial policies, while port ore stocks in China approached multi-year highs. Additional pressure came from expectations of environmental restrictions and a slower-than-expected recovery in pig iron production.
In early February, the market entered a downward phase. After the pre-holiday purchasing season ended, demand fell sharply, while supply remained high. Even weather risks in Australia and temporary supply disruptions failed to support prices, as excess inventories offset any shortages. At the same time, new shipments of high-quality ore from the Simandou project began to arrive, reinforcing expectations of global supply growth in the medium term.
During the holiday period, liquidity fell sharply, traders closed their positions, and futures continued to weaken. Low demand from Chinese steelmakers remained a key market factor.
After the holidays in China, a short technical recovery in prices is possible due to the return of mills to purchasing. However, fundamentally, the market remains in a negative phase, as high inventories, weak construction activity, and a gradual increase in supplies (particularly from Simandou) will limit growth potential. In the coming months, prices are likely to fluctuate around or slightly above $95-105/t CFR, with the risk of further declines in the event of weak steel demand in China.