By Julianne Geiger - Oct 14, 2025, 12:00 PM CDT
An oil surplus long prophesied by traders may finally be materializing, according to Gunvor Group CEO Torbjörn Törnqvist, who says the market is shifting from tightness to glut—though not everyone is buying the narrative just yet.
“It looks like we are now moving into a bit of a different market,” Törnqvist told Bloomberg in London. “We have heard it before and people have been burned on that. But this time around at this stage I think there’s a bit more substance in the oversupplied narrative.”
The International Energy Agency also just raised its projection for record oil oversupply in 2026, forecasting a glut of up to 4 million barrels per day as both OPEC+ and non-OPEC producers ramp up output. Törnqvist’s own estimate is roughly half that, but he concedes even a 2 million barrel per day overhang would be enough to tilt sentiment—and prices—lower.
“There’s a great deal more oil hitting the market at the time where there is no additional demand for it,” he said, adding that renewed trade tensions are compounding the bearish tone.
Crude prices already reflect that shift: U.S. benchmark WTI slipped below $60 a barrel last week for the first time since May and hovered near $58 on Tuesday. Some of the world’s largest oil companies reported weaker second-quarter trading results as geopolitical uncertainty shaved off the risk premiums that once propped up prices.
Still, the oversupply thesis rests on a big assumption—that producer nations, especially Saudi Arabia, will follow through with their pledged output increases. If Chinese stockpiling accelerates, much of that expected overhang could evaporate before it bites.
Skepticism aside, the world’s top traders appear to be bracing for a softer oil market—one where barrels are suddenly easier to find than buyers.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Gunvor-Chief-Says-Oil-Oversupply-Is-Finally-Taking-Shape.html
US stocks diverged on Tuesday after China upped the ante in its trade spat with the US, while investors digested the kickoff of third quarter earnings season from Wall Street's banking giants.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose 0.5% after paring steep losses earlier in the session. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) also flipped into the green, rising 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 0.2%.
The unsettled mood shifted throughout the morning, as stocks poked into the green amid Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Tuesday at the NABE annual meeting. In his remarks, the Fed chair said that the central bank's outlook for employment and inflation had not changed, implying that further Fed cuts are possible.
Powell's remarks came into heavy focus with key data reports stalled by the government shutdown, leaving the Fed and investors flying blind on the state of the jobs market and inflation.
Stocks had opened the session downtrodden after a strong rebound on Monday, thanks to a fresh round of retaliation from Beijing to President Trump's trade salvos. Its latest moves to target US shipping have undermined recently revived hopes that the US and China will avoid an all-out trade war.
China has placed sanctions on five US-linked units of South Korean shipbuilding firm Hanwha Ocean, effectively barring Chinese companies from doing business with them. Both countries also began charging special port fees on one another's vessels on Tuesday in a bid for maritime dominance.
Also in focus is third quarter earnings season, which kicked off in earnest on Tuesday morning with results from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC). Goldman and JPMorgan shares dipped even as their quarterly profits were boosted by a flurry of Wall Street dealmaking. Wells Fargo stock, meanwhile, jumped as the bank's profit also surged.
In the tech world, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) said it will provide Oracle's (ORCL) cloud business with 50,000 AI chips. The move by Nvidia's (NVDA) chipmaking rival is the latest in a recent slew of AI deals.
ONGC Targets 15% Cost Reduction to Prepare for $60 per Barrel Crude Price Plans Rs 9,000 crore cost savings by FY27; collaboration with BP to unlock $15 billion incremental revenue
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), India’s largest oil and gas explorer, is planning to reduce its overall costs by 15 per cent over the next two years as it braces for crude oil prices potentially sliding to around $60 per barrel in an oversupplied global market.
The company has set a target to achieve Rs 9,000 crore in total cost savings by FY2026–27 (FY27), with around Rs 4,300 crore expected by March 2026 through the rollout of 20 initiatives aimed at boosting operational efficiency, said Pankaj Kumar, Director (Production), ONGC, at a press conference on Monday.
“We are implementing 20 key initiatives to improve cost efficiency, covering all major operational areas—from drilling and logistics to inventory management and fuel use,” Kumar said.
Efficiency and New Business Ventures
ONGC’s cost-cutting roadmap includes offshore resource optimisation, enhanced drilling efficiency, logistics route rationalisation, inventory reduction, and fuel efficiency improvement measures.
The company is scaling up operations at its Pipavav supply base in Gujarat, which alone is expected to contribute over Rs 1,000 crore in annual savings. Additionally, ONGC plans to enter the oil trading business, which could unlock up to $1 billion in yearly savings. The company is reportedly in talks with several overseas firms to establish a joint venture for oil trading operations.
Production Growth and BP Collaboration
Having managed to reverse the declining trend in crude production, ONGC reported a 1% year-on-year (YoY) increase in crude output in FY2024–25 (FY25). In FY2025–26 (FY26), the company continued to see positive growth, with oil production rising 1.2% in Q1 and 1.1% in Q2.
A major growth driver is ONGC’s collaboration with global energy major BP to enhance recovery from the Mumbai High field. The partnership, formalised in January 2025 with BP as the Technical Services Provider (TSP), is projected to unlock up to $15 billion in incremental revenue over the next decade.
Long-Term Production Outlook
ONGC is targeting a 44% increase in oil production to 65.41 million metric tonnes (mmt) and an 89% boost in gas production over the next 10 years. The company also expects higher output from the KG-DWN-98/2 block in the Krishna-Godavari Basin, projecting 12 mmt of oil and 13.5 bcm of gas in the coming years. BP is assisting ONGC as a subject matter expert in diagnosing root causes and identifying well interventions to enhance production from the block.
Key Highlights:
https://indianpsu.com/ongc-cost-reduction-plan-bp-collaboration-mumbai-high-revenue/
India's Russian oil imports between April and September fell 8.4 per cent on year due to narrower discounts and tighter supplies, with refiners seeking more oil from the Middle East and the United States, according to trade sources and shipping data.
The nation is also under pressure from Washington, which has doubled tariffs on Indian goods, to reduce Russian oil imports. White House trade adviser Peter Navarro had said India's purchases of Russian crude were funding Moscow's war in Ukraine.
A refiner in India shipped in 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil in the first half of this fiscal year that began on April 1, shipping data obtained from trade sources show.
September's volume was flat versus August at 1.6 million bpd, down 14.2 per cent from the same month a year ago, the data showed.
Private refiner Reliance Industries Ltd and Nayara Energy boosted imports in September while state refiners' purchases fell.
US trade negotiators have said curbing purchases of Russian oil is crucial to reducing India's tariff rate and sealing a trade deal.
Meanwhile, India's US crude imports in April-September rose 6.8 per cent on year to about 213,000 bpd.
India's higher purchase of US energy products is linked to the outcome of trade negotiations between the two countries, a government source said last week.
US trade secretary Scott Bessent had said India would rebalance its crude purchases by buying more US oil and less Russian oil.
Overall, India shipped in about 4.88 million bpd of oil in September, down by 1 per cent from August, but up about 3.5 per cent from the same month a year ago, the data showed.
During the April-September period, Russia's share in India's overall imports declined to about 36 per cent from 40 per cent, while that of the US rose marginally.
The share of Middle Eastern oil in six months to September 2025 in overall imports rose to 45 per cent from 42 per cent, lifting the share of the OPEC nations to 49 per cent from 45 per cent, the data showed.
KEY POINTS:
Russia's revenues from crude oil and refined products fell again in September, as exports of the latter plunged to the lowest in a decade excluding the COVID-hit April 2020, the International Energy Agency said on Tuesday.
Russia's vital energy industry is under strain from a pickup in Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries and pipelines, as well as Western sanctions.
The Paris-based IEA said Russia's revenues from crude and fuel sales fell to $13.35 billion in September from $13.58 billion in August, due also to lower prices. That followed a steep decline in August from July.
CRUDE EXPORTS RISE, OIL PRODUCTS FALL
"Persistent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have cut Russian crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels per day, resulting in domestic fuel shortages and lower product exports," the IEA said in a monthly report.
It said Russian crude and oil product exports rose by 210,000 bpd to 7.4 million bpd in September, as a pickup in crude exports more than offset the decline in oil products.
Crude exports rose 370,000 bpd to 5.1 million bpd, the highest since May 2023, as lower refining throughput freed up barrels for international markets.
But product exports dropped 170,000 bpd to 2.4 million bpd, mainly driven by gasoil and fuel oil. Preliminary data suggests shipments to Saudi Arabia fell in particular, the IEA said.
A $200 million rise in crude export revenue was more than offset by a $440 million drop for products.
The IEA also said the discount of Russia's flagship Urals crude to the North Sea benchmark widened to more than $13 per barrel in early October, the largest since May, as Russia's surplus barrels joined an over-supplied global market.
The agency said Russian oil production increased 170,000 bpd last month to 9.21 million bpd, from a downwardly revised 9.03 million bpd in August.
That compares with the 9.321 million bpd assessed by the producer group OPEC and Russia's output quota from the OPEC+ alliance of 9.415 million bpd.
The IEA also said Kazakhstan's crude oil supply declined by 20,000 bpd from August to 1.84 million bpd last month amid export disruptions for the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which accounts for around 80% of the country's oil exports.
The level was still above Kazakhstan's OPEC+ quota of 1.550 million bpd.
(World Oil)– Exxon Mobil Corp. Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods renewed criticism of the European Union’s energy policies while praising U.S. President Donald Trump’s approach.
The Texas oil and gas giant is slowing investment in Europe and selling assets, with Woods describing the bloc’s climate and human rights regulations as “slowing things down and trying to over-prescribe unpractical” solutions.
He was underlining strong criticism he directed last month at the EU’s ”bone-crushing” Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.
In contrast, Trump has brought a “more balanced conversation” and “a very explicit recognition of the vital role that energy plays in economic growth and in people’s everyday prosperity,” Woods said on stage at the Energy Intelligence Forum conference in London on Monday.
Even with this political backing, Woods told the audience that Exxon is concerned that growth in U.S. shale oil output is set to decline. This could change if companies can learn how to extract more than 10% of the oil held within shale reservoirs — roughly the current rate of recovery, he said.
Exxon’s return to Iraq, where it signed a deal related to the Majnoon oil field last week, still has a “long road ahead for us before anything comes to fruition,” he said.
https://www.oilandgas360.com/exxonmobil-retreats-from-europe-credits-trump-for-pro-oil-stance-2/
@JesseCohenInv: Gold price record
Gold futures have reached an unprecedented milestone, surpassing the $4,200 mark. This development marks a historic moment in commodity trading as gold prices continue their upward trajectory.
Jesse Cohen, a notable financial analyst, emphasizes the significance of this new record and suggests that the climb towards $5,000 is now within reach. Analysts and investors are keenly observing the market dynamics to anticipate the next moves, as this surge adds momentum to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid global economic uncertainties.
The current rally in gold mirrors broader trends seen across financial markets, where shifts in investor sentiment have had profound implications. Similar concerns emerged during the recent crypto selloff, which highlighted market vulnerability and the search for stability amid volatility. Meanwhile, evolving strategies in sectors such as automotive—illustrated by Tesla's entry into the Indian market—underscore the interconnected landscape in which assets like gold remain a pivotal safe-haven for global investors.
https://tradersunion.com/news/market-voices/show/666908-gold-price-record/
Legacy Minerals (ASX:LGM) has entered into a memorandum of understanding with Cobalt Blue (ASX:COB) to assess strategic options for cobalt and other products sourced from the NiCo Young Project in New South Wales.
The agreement holds a term of three years, which intends to help direct Legacy assess potential pathways towards commercialisation for the project, which it secured in May 2025.
Legacy CEO Christopher Byrne explains that Cobalt Blue, which owns the Broken Hill Cobalt Deposit and is currently developing the Kwinana Cobalt Refinery, holds an expertise in these types of ores which may be able to be refined in the future.
“The companies propose to evaluate the opportunities for commercialisation of nickel-cobalt from the NiCo Young deposit, which would align with Australia’s critical minerals strategy and the Commonwealth Government’s ‘A Future Made in Australia’ ambitions,” Byrne says.
Meanwhile, the company has entered early exploration stages across the project to review scandium, which was not included in the previous resource.
Sunrise Energy Metals’ (ASX:SRL) nearby Sunrise and Syerston deposits, also located along the Lachlan Ford Belt, host a global resource of 19,007 tonnes of scandium.
“In conjunction with a general exploration review, recent work by the exploration team has focused on the scandium potential of the deposit,” Byrne adds.
“This has resulted in the identification of a historical scandium resource on the deposit and limited historical testing and metallurgical evaluation of the project for its scandium project.”
Legacy will conduct a detailed literature review, before dedicating an assaying program for the commodity, with potential metallurgical leach testing as well as conducting a domaining study.
Nico Young currently hosts a JORC-compliant mineral resource of 167.8 million tonnes @ 0.59% nickel and 0.06% cobalt for a 0.6% nickel equivalent cut-off, hosting a contained 1 million tonnes of nickel and 100,000 tonnes of cobalt.
Legacy Minerals is a gold, copper, and base metals explorer focused in the New South Wales area.
Write to Maddison Elliott at Mining.com.au
https://mining.com.au/cobalt-blue-to-bolster-nico-youngs-legacy/
Great Southern Copper PLC (LSE:GSCU) has reported high-grade assay results from rock chip sampling at the Monolith copper-silver prospect within its Cerro Negro project in Chile.
The company said 48 channel samples returned grades of up to 271 grams per tonne silver and 2.05% copper, averaging 35.4 grams per tonne silver and 0.31% copper despite surface leaching.
Sampling results have defined a mineralised zone more than 50 metres wide that remains open to the south and southeast.
Prospect-scale mapping and sampling continue at Cerro Negro to assess the extent of structurally controlled copper-silver mineralisation and potential for porphyry-style systems.
"With copper and silver prices at record highs, these high-grade results are both exciting and highly significant since they further demonstrate and expand the scale potential of the Cerro Negro Cu-Ag prospect," said chief executive Sam Garrett.
"With Phase III drilling underway at Mostaza, the team is also working in parallel to advance exploration across additional targets within the Cerro Negro prospect area to expand the mineralised footprint."
The company has also mobilised a second diamond drill rig to the nearby Mostaza mine to expand the Phase III drill programme targeting extensions and infill of Lens 2 mineralisation.
Garrett added: "Rig 2 will initially target extensions and in-fill to the Lens 2 mineralisation. The Company looks forward to updating the market as drilling progresses and results are received".
Shares of small-cap mining company Nova Minerals (NVA) gained more than 55% in the first hour of the trading session on Tuesday after briefly doubling before the open following an announcement from the company of a request from the Trump administration to prepare briefs on one of its gold (GC=F) and minerals extraction sites.
Australia-based Nova Minerals announced in a press release early Tuesday morning that the US ambassador to Australia has asked the company to prepare a briefing on the miner's Estelle Gold and Critical Minerals Project in Alaska ahead of an upcoming meeting between President Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.
The site is "among the world's largest undeveloped gold assets," according to Nova Minerals.
Fellow Aussie mining companies Fortescue Metals Group (FVJ.SG) and Australian Mines (AMSLF) and multinational British-Australian giant Rio Tinto (RIO) were trading up in sympathy following the news.
The mining site, roughly 100 miles northwest of Anchorage, Alaska, is projected to hold more than 9.9 million ounces of gold across its four most promising deposits, which would be worth roughly $41 billion at Tuesday morning's gold price of $4,140 per troy ounce.
Nova Minerals also announced at the beginning of October that the Department of Defense made a $43.4 million investment in a wholly owned subsidiary of the company to fund the development of domestic antimony sources.
The announcement is one more in a line of recent developments in the critical minerals and metals sector, as the Trump administration has ratcheted up its focus on the US domestic supply chain of such materials.
Recent moves include investments in a host of mining companies, including MP Materials (MP), which operates the only operational rare earth mine in the US; Trilogy Metals (TMQ), which holds a 50% stake in a major mineral mining project under development in Alaska; and Lithium Americas (LAC), which is developing what is likely to be the largest lithium (LTH=F) mine in the Western Hemisphere when it commences operations.
MP Materials and Trilogy Metals are up more than 500% and more than 490%, respectively, on the year, while Lithium Americas is up more than 180%.
The Trump administration's focus on the critical minerals supply chain has stepped increasingly into the spotlight as it trades blows with Beijing in an ongoing trade war over the materials, which are critically important to industries such as electric vehicles and weapons systems development.
Animation of the Aurubis Richmond plant. Credit: Aurubis
Germany’s Aurubis has held preliminary talks with the US government about support for a new copper smelter in the United States following the launch of a recycling plant there, its CEO said on Tuesday.
A new smelter is one of three options Europe’s biggest copper producer is considering to take advantage of a US drive to boost domestic output of the metal, after President Donald Trump in July announced a 50% tariff on copper products but left out ores, concentrates and cathodes.
“First we have to lay out options and come up with more concrete proposals. But we have positive signs from the US government that they would potentially support this,” CEO Toralf Haag told Reuters during metals industry gathering LME Week.
Big US demand
Last month Aurubis started production at its new recycling plant in the US state of Georgia, the first greenfield plant it has built in 115 years, which will ramp up to annual output of 70,000 metric tons of high-grade blister copper.
The US is only able to supply about half of its refined copper demand of 1.7 million tons from domestic production, with the gap widening in coming years as demand is due to jump by two-thirds to 2.3 million by 2035, Aurubis has said.
“There are 60 smelters in China, 15 in Europe, and now with us, only three in the US. So there’s a big demand for smelting capacity,” Haag said.
Building a new smelter would be a long-term project, but two other options could come to fruition in three to four years without government support, he added.
The first would be to expand the current US recycling operation by building an anode furnace and tank house to produce cathodes and possibly rods, Haag said.
The second would be to build another recycling plant on the US west coast to take advantage of higher scrap availability after the tariff ruling limited exports.
The US recycling market is expected to climb by 26% over the next decade to 555,000 metric tons a year, Aurubis has said.
Higher platinum, antimony production
Aurubis also plans to boost platinum and antimony output by building a new precious metal refinery and complex recycling plant in Hamburg together costing about 500 million euros ($577.7 million), Haag said.
Firm demand and worries about supply shortages enabled Aurubis to lift the premium it will charge European customers next year to a record $315 per metric ton, up 38% from last year, Reuters reported last week.
Supply worries from mine disruptions in Indonesia, Chile and Congo helped drive benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange to a 16-month peak of $11,000 a ton last week. It was down 2.7% at $10,525 a ton on Tuesday morning.
($1 = 0.8656 euros)
(By Eric Onstad; Editing by Jan Harvey)
https://www.mining.com/web/aurubis-held-talks-with-us-on-support-for-new-smelter-ceo-says/
El Teniente Copper Production Disruption: Impact Analysis and Market Implications
In July 2025, a devastating rock burst at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine claimed the lives of six miners and triggered significant production disruptions. The incident has evolved from an isolated tragedy into a market-shifting event with far-reaching implications for global copper supplies. As production losses continue to mount, industry experts are reassessing copper price prediction fundamentals for the coming years and evaluating the wider implications for underground mining operations worldwide.
What Caused the El Teniente Copper Production Loss?
The Fatal Rock Burst Incident
The July 2025 rock burst at El Teniente resulted in six miner fatalities—the first such deaths at the operation in 35 years. This catastrophic event occurred deep within the mine's extensive underground network, located approximately 80 kilometers south of Santiago, Chile. The tragedy has forced a partial shutdown of operations while comprehensive investigations take place.
Rock bursts represent an inherent risk in deep mining operations. They involve the abrupt and instantaneous rupture of rock mass in tunnels, releasing energy in the form of seismic waves and projecting rock fragments at high velocity. While mining engineers have developed methods to manage these risks over decades, the scale and severity of this particular incident indicates exceptional geological circumstances.
The event's timing was particularly unfortunate, as it occurred during a period of strong operational performance. Prior to the incident, Codelco had achieved 2% year-over-year production growth through September 2025, indicating that without the accident, growth figures would have been substantially higher.
Geological Factors Contributing to the Incident
El Teniente's massive underground footprint—comprising over 4,500 kilometers of tunnels across multiple mining districts—creates inherently complex structural challenges. Preliminary investigations have identified a process of "vertical unloading due to geometric changes and cavity interaction" in the northwest section of the deposit as the most probable cause of the rock burst.
In simpler terms, the shape of the deposit has changed over decades of mining, affecting how the material is supported. Over time, cavities (empty spaces) have formed and begun connecting, weakening the overall structure and facilitating the downward movement of material. At depth, rock layers were shifting over one another, creating conditions for catastrophic failure.
This structural evolution highlights the geotechnical challenges miners increasingly face as they pursue copper deposits at greater depths. The deeper operations extend into the earth's crust to extract critical minerals, the greater the geotechnical complexities they encounter.
Key factors contributing to structural instability included:
How Significant is the El Teniente Production Shortfall?
Revised Production Loss Estimates
The production impact from the El Teniente incident has proven more severe than initially projected. Codelco initially estimated 33,000 tonnes of copper production would be lost in 2025. However, this figure has since been revised upward to 48,000 tonnes—a 45% increase from the original projection.
The disruption will extend into 2026, with an additional 25,000 tonnes of production loss projected for that year. This brings the combined two-year production shortfall to approximately 73,000 tonnes of copper.
These figures represent a substantial portion of El Teniente's output and will meaningfully impact Codelco's overall production profile. The expanded production loss estimates highlight the deep and lasting operational consequences of the rock burst incident.
Financial Impact Assessment
The financial implications of the production disruption are significant. Codelco has estimated a negative impact of approximately $500 million on its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA).
This financial hit comes at a challenging time for the Chilean state-owned copper producer, which has been working to maintain production levels while managing costs. The Codelco El Teniente copper production loss represents approximately 3.5% of Codelco's annual copper output, a meaningful portion of the company's production base.
Despite these challenges, Codelco has maintained robust operational performance across its portfolio. The company achieved 2% year-over-year production growth through September 2025, even with the El Teniente disruption. This performance underscores the strength of Codelco's broader operational base, while also highlighting how much stronger growth might have been without the incident.
Operational Context
El Teniente holds strategic importance as one of the world's largest underground mines marvels. The mine has been in continuous operation for over 100 years and serves as a key contributor to global refined copper supply.
What makes this disruption particularly notable is that despite its severity, Codelco has thus far maintained all its customer supply commitments. This achievement speaks to the company's operational flexibility and its ability to redistribute production across its portfolio of assets.
However, the company has emphasized that safety considerations will take priority over production recovery. The comprehensive investigation into the root causes of the incident must be completed before any long-term adjustments to the mining plan can be implemented.
Why Does This Disruption Matter to Global Copper Markets?
Current Copper Market Conditions
The El Teniente disruption occurs against a backdrop of copper prices trading near record levels, at approximately $11,000 per metric ton. This price strength reflects tight physical market conditions and growing concerns about future copper supply forecast.
In a significant market development, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) recently revised its 2026 market outlook dramatically—shifting from a projected surplus of 209,000 tonnes to a deficit of 150,000 tonnes. This 359,000-tonne swing in market expectations underscores how production disruptions are fundamentally altering market balances.
The rapid shift from projected surplus to structural deficit highlights the vulnerability of copper supply chains and the market's sensitivity to production disruptions at major operations like El Teniente.
Compounding Global Supply Challenges
The El Teniente disruption doesn't exist in isolation. It adds further pressure to a copper market already facing supply shortfalls from multiple regions:
The combined effect of these disruptions has fundamentally shifted the copper market balance from projected surplus to deficit for 2026. This structural shift has significant implications for price formation and supply chain planning across industries dependent on copper.
Strategic Metal Supply Implications
Copper's critical role in the energy transition and electrification heightens market sensitivity to any supply disruptions. The metal serves as an essential input for renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles, and grid modernization.
As global decarbonization efforts accelerate, copper demand is projected to grow substantially over the coming decades. Supply disruptions have an outsized impact during periods of growing structural demand, potentially creating periods of acute market tightness.
The Codelco El Teniente copper production loss contributes to a growing concern that structural deficit conditions in the copper market could persist longer than initially anticipated. Market participants across the value chain are reassessing medium-term copper availability and price expectations in light of these developments.
How is Codelco Responding to the Crisis?
Safety-First Recovery Approach
Codelco has launched a comprehensive internal and external investigation, with independent experts in geomechanics, geophysics, and geoscience contributing to the review. The company has indicated it requires 2-3 additional months to finalize all research and studies related to the incident.
This timeline suggests findings would be expected between December 2025 and January 2026. The company has emphasized that understanding the root causes of the event takes priority before potentially making long-term adjustments to its mining plan.
The focus on safety over rapid production recovery underscores the seriousness with which Codelco is approaching the situation. This approach aligns with industry best practices for managing recovery from significant safety incidents.
Technical Response Measures
While specific technical response measures are still being developed as the investigation continues, they are expected to include:
These technical interventions will likely be informed by the findings of the ongoing investigations and will aim to prevent similar incidents in the future while allowing for the safe resumption of mining activities.
Production Recovery Timeline
Codelco has outlined a gradual approach to resuming operations at El Teniente, with enhanced safety measures as the cornerstone of the recovery plan. Full production recovery is not expected until late 2026, indicating an extended period of reduced output.
The company is developing a revised modern mine planning strategy that will address the structural challenges identified during the investigation. This plan will likely include modified mining sequences, enhanced support systems, and potentially reduced extraction rates in high-risk areas.
Long-term operational adjustments will likely be implemented as part of this recovery process, potentially changing how Codelco approaches mining in deep, high-stress environments across its portfolio.
What Are the Broader Industry Implications?
Underground Mining Risk Reassessment
The El Teniente incident has become a stark reminder of how complex and fragile underground mining operations can be, particularly at great depths. Industry analysts note that operational continuity has now become the #1 risk in mining, surpassing geopolitical concerns which held the top position in 2024.
https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/el-teniente-copper-production-disruption-2025-impact-analysis/
Sinosteel is expected to complete the iron processing plant at the Gâra Djebilet mine in April.
Algeria will begin output from one of the world’s largest iron ore mines in early 2026 when a 4-million-tonnes-a-year processing plant being built by China’s Sinosteel is completed.
The Gâra Djebilet mine, in the western Tindouf province near the Moroccan border, started limited production two years ago, the government said.
The plant will perform crushing, screening and dry separation of raw material before storing and transporting it to consumer points, said Belkacem Sultani, CEO of Sonarem mining group, a subsidiary of the energy and mines ministry.
“The processing unit will be commissioned in April. It currently has a capacity of 4 million tonnes per year but it will be increased to 10 million tonnes in 2032,” Sultani told the official Algerian news agency.
Sultani said companies from the US, China and India had shown interest in investing in the mining project, which aims to diversify the North African country’s revenue sources.
Algeria plans to invest $7-$10 billion to develop the mine, the Algerian Alshuruq website quoted officials as saying this year.
The iron ore mine straddles more than 125 million square metres and is one of the world’s largest.
Gâra Djebilet contains an estimated 3.5 billion tonnes of iron ore, of which about 1.7 billion tonnes are exploitable, according to the ministry.
Algeria has completed most of a 1,000km rail line linking the mine to key industrial areas and export terminals.
In August, Algeria approved a new law to open its mining sector to foreign investors as part of a drive to tap mineral wealth and diversify its hydrocarbon-reliant economy.
https://www.agbi.com/mining/2025/10/chinas-sinosteel-to-complete-iron-plant-at-algerian-mine/
Rio Tinto Plc (NYSE:RIO) shares are trading lower premarket on Tuesday after the company reported the third-quarter fiscal 2025 trading update.
Iron Ore: Pilbara iron ore production remained flat year over year (Y/Y) at 84.1 million tonnes (Mt).
Pilbara iron ore shipments (consolidated basis) also remained stable Y/Y at 84.3Mt in the quarter. Notably, Pilbara achieved its second-highest third-quarter shipments since 2019.
Severe weather conditions impacted both production and shipment.
Meanwhile, production of Bauxite rose 9% Y/Y to 16.4MT and Alumina rose 7% Y/Y to 1.9MT in the quarter.
Markets
Rio said that the global economy showed modest improvement in the third quarter, supported by favorable financial conditions, fiscal expansion in key economies, and advance investments ahead of anticipated tariffs. However, business and consumer sentiment weakened due to ongoing trade tensions.
In a statement about the Chinese economy, the company noted that it entered the third quarter facing challenges such as ongoing deflation, slowing manufacturing, decreasing exports, and a persistently weak property sector.
Despite these issues, the government is dedicated to achieving its annual growth target of 5%. To meet this goal, it is focusing on targeted stimulus measures in infrastructure and technology instead of implementing broad strategies.
The U.S. economy slowed in Q3 after a strong Q2, as GDP growth eased due to higher tariffs and a widening trade deficit impacting activity. While household spending remained resilient, business investment and consumer sentiment showed signs of weakening.
Outlook
For FY25, Rio now expects Pilbara shipments to be at the lower end of guidance of 323 to 338 Mt.
This is due to a 13 Mt loss resulting from cyclone impacts in the first quarter, with approximately half of that volume expected to be recovered.
The company revised guidance for Bauxite production to 59 to 61MT (from 57 to 59MT) on higher utilisation rates, mainly at Weipa.
The outlook for Alumina production remained unchanged at 7.4 to 7.8MT.
Chief Executive Simon Trott said, "We continue to strengthen performance from our assets, setting back-to-back quarterly production records in our bauxite business and at Oyu Tolgoi – where the underground ramp-up remains on track to boost copper output by more than 50% this year."
"We are focused on delivering a strong finish to the year from the Pilbara. Our growth projects are also progressing at pace – at Simandou, we started loading first ore at the mine for movement down the rail and to the port in October."
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:SLX) and iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:ICOP).
Price Action: RIO shares are down 2.41% at $66.52 premarket at the last check on Tuesday
