Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Monday 17 November 2025
Background Stories on www.commodityintelligence.com

News and Views:








Featured

Barrick Gold Considers Major Corporate Restructuring

Barrick CA06849F1080

Canada's mining powerhouse Barrick Gold is evaluating a transformative corporate division that would separate its operations into two distinct entities. Board members are actively debating a potential split that would create one company focused on North American assets and another managing African and Asian holdings. This strategic shift comes as investors enjoy substantial share price appreciation, raising questions about the timing and implications of such a structural overhaul.

Barrick Gold Considers Major Corporate Restructuring - Foto: über boerse-global.de

The restructuring discussions follow an exceptional third-quarter 2025 performance where Barrick delivered multiple record-breaking financial results:

  • Operating cash flow reached $2.4 billion (company record)
  • Free cash flow surged to $1.5 billion (representing 274 percent growth)
  • Revenue climbed to $4.1 billion (a 23.2 percent increase)
  • Net profit achieved $1.3 billion

This financial strength stemmed from a 4 percent expansion in gold production combined with favorable gold price movements. Market response has been overwhelmingly positive, with shares advancing 12 percent in the latest trading week and doubling in value over the preceding six-month period.

Strategic Shift Toward Political Stability

Interim CEO Mark Hill has clarified the strategic direction behind the potential reorganization. Barrick intends to concentrate its future operations on politically stable regions, specifically targeting mines in Nevada and the Dominican Republic for primary development. This reorientation would involve spinning off or divesting African assets along with the Reko Diq mine in Pakistan.

The market immediately responded to this strategic clarity, with Barrick's Toronto-listed equity gaining 3 percent following the announcements. The company's North American operations are considered crown jewels within its portfolio, while African and Pakistani projects carry elevated geopolitical risk profiles that complicate operations.

Shareholder Returns Accelerate

Barrick is channeling its substantial cash generation toward enhanced shareholder returns through multiple avenues. The company has raised its quarterly base dividend by 25 percent to $0.175 per share while simultaneously executing an aggressive share repurchase initiative. The buyback program has already deployed $1.0 billion this year alone.

This robust capital return strategy is attracting significant institutional interest. Bank of New York Mellon Corp established a new position exceeding 1.6 million shares valued at approximately $33.8 million. Additional investment firms have initiated positions while equity researchers across the sector have been upgrading their price targets for Barrick stock.


https://www.ad-hoc-news.de/boerse/news/ueberblick/barrick-gold-considers-major-corporate-restructuring/68360728

Back to Top

Macro

Correlation between Gold and S&P 500

Back to Top

USGS 2025 List of Critical Minerals

Back to Top

Oil and Gas

Guyana Oil Boom: ExxonMobil Hits 900,000-Barrel Milestone As Production Race Accelerates

BY NAN BUSINESS EDITOR

News Americas, GEORGETOWN, Guyana, Weds. Nov. 12, 2025: Guyana’s oil juggernaut, ExxonMobil, has hit another major milestone – 900,000 barrels of oil per day – solidifying the South American nation’s position as one of the fastest-growing petroleum producers in the world.

The announcement from ExxonMobil Guyana and its Stabroek block partners – Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. and CNOOC Petroleum Guyana Ltd. – marks a symbolic moment just six years after Guyana’s first commercial oil production began.

guyana-exxon

Yellowtail Boosts Output

The surge comes on the heels of the Yellowtail project’s successful ramp-up to its designed capacity of 250,000 barrels per day, joining the already robust operations at Liza Phase 1, Liza Phase 2, and Payara.

Together, the four projects have propelled Guyana to output levels that rival OPEC producers such as Ecuador and surpass every other Caribbean nation combined.

“Guyana’s story is one of continuous achievements,” said ExxonMobil Guyana President Alistair Routledge. “Through close collaboration with the Government of Guyana, our co-venturers, suppliers, contractors, and employees, we are building a world-class energy sector that delivers significant value for the people of Guyana.”

A $60 Billion Energy Bet

The Stabroek block consortium has now committed more than US$60 billion in development investments — a staggering sum that underscores long-term confidence in Guyana’s offshore reserves.

Six additional government-approved projects are in the pipeline, including Uaru and Whiptail, both expected to deliver 250,000 barrels per day each by 2026 and 2027. The Hammerhead project will follow in 2029 with another 150,000 barrels per day, while Longtail – now under regulatory review – could push Guyana’s total capacity to 1.7 million barrels per day across eight developments.

Guyana’s Global Moment

This exponential growth is transforming Guyana’s economy and geopolitical relevance. Once one of the poorest countries in the hemisphere, it now boasts one of the world’s highest GDP growth rates and has become a central player in global energy markets.

But as production scales, so do expectations – from managing environmental risks and fiscal transparency to ensuring oil wealth benefits the broader population.

Still, ExxonMobil’s rapid progress signals an undeniable reality: Guyana’s oil era is no longer an emerging story – it’s a global force in motion.


https://www.newsamericasnow.com/exxonmobil-guyana-oil-production/

Back to Top

What now for peak oil? Unpacking a surprise twist in the fossil fuel feud

A worker inspects the outdoor gas pipes at the underground gas storage facility operated by Gas Storage CZ AS, in Haje, Czech Republic, on Friday, Jan. 3, 2025. The coldest spell so far this winter is likely to push up heating demand in Europe, tapping into gas reserves that have fallen below 75%. Photographer: Milan Jaros/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A worker inspects the outdoor gas pipes at the underground gas storage facility operated by Gas Storage CZ AS, in Haje, Czech Republic, on Friday, Jan. 3, 2025.

The International Energy Agency's latest outlook signals that oil demand could keep growing through to the middle of the century, reflecting a sharp tonal shift from the world's energy watchdog and raising further questions about the future of fossil fuels.

In its flagship World Energy Outlook, the Paris-based agency on Wednesday laid out a scenario in which demand for oil climbs to 113 million barrels per day by 2050, up 13% from 2024 levels.

The IEA had previously estimated a peak in global fossil fuel demand before the end of this decade and said that, in order to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, there should be no new investments in coal, oil and gas projects.

The concept of peak oil refers to the point at which global crude production reaches its highest point, before subsequently entering an irreversible decline.

The IEA's end-of-decade peak oil forecast kick-started a long-running war of words with OPEC, an influential group of oil exporting countries, which accused the IEA of fearmongering and risking the destabilization of the global economy. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, meanwhile, labeled the IEA's peak oil demand assumption as "nonsensical."

The IEA's latest forecast of increasing oil demand was outlined in its "Current Policies Scenario" — one of a number of scenarios outlined by the IEA. This one assumes no new policies or regulations beyond those already in place.

The CPS was dropped five years ago amid energy market turmoil during the coronavirus pandemic, and its reintroduction follows pressure from the Trump administration.

Earlier this month, the IEA said that now that the world has passed through the pandemic and global energy crisis, "there is merit in revisiting the CPS."

The agency said increasing oil demand would be primarily driven by demand for petrochemical products and jet fuel, alongside a slowdown in the growth of electric vehicles.


https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/13/what-now-for-peak-oil-unpacking-the-ieas-shift-on-fossil-fuel-demand.html

Back to Top

Iran Seizes Singapore-Bound Oil Tanker In The Strait of Hormuz

Iran confirmed on Saturday that its Revolutionary Guards seized a Marshall Islands-flagged oil tanker as it traveled through the narrow Strait of Hormuz after it set sail from the UAE on the way to Singapore.

A report by the official IRNA news agency carried a statement by the Revolutionary Guard that said the tanker was taken to Iranian waters over alleged violations “for carrying unauthorized cargo.”

It said the seizure came following a court order, and the operation was aimed at “protecting Iran’s national interests and resources.” It identified the oil tanker as the Talara and said it was carrying 30,000 tons of petrochemical products.

The seizure happened on Friday. Tehran has been increasingly warning it could strike back after a 12-day war with Israel in June that saw the U.S. strike Iranian nuclear sites.

It said the ship had been en route to Singapore when Iranian forces intercepted it. A private security firm, Ambrey, described the assault as involving three small boats.

A U.S. Navy MQ-4C Triton drone had been circling above the area where the Talara was for hours on Friday observing the seizure, flight-tracking data analyzed by The Associated Press showed.

The British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center separately acknowledged the incident, saying a possible “state activity” forced the Talara to turn into Iranian territorial waters.

Cyprus-based Columbia Shipmanagement later said in a statement that it had “lost contact” with the tanker, which was carrying high sulphur gasoil. It did not immediately provide any update on Saturday.

Iran has been blamed for a series of limpet mine attacks on vessels that damaged tankers in 2019, as well as for a drone attack on an Israeli-linked oil tanker that killed two European crew members in 2021. Those attacks began after U.S. President Donald Trump in his first term in office unilaterally withdrew from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.

In 2022, Iran took two Greek tankers and held them until November of that year. Iran seized the Portuguese-flagged cargo ship MSC Aries in April 2024.

Years of tensions between Iran and the West, coupled with the situation in the Gaza Strip, exploded into a full-scale 12-day war in June.

Tehran has long threatened to close off the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all traded oil passes. The U.S. Navy has long patrolled the Mideast through its Bahrain-based 5th Fleet to keep the waterways open.


https://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/headlines-breaking-stories/2472176/iran-seizes-singapore-bound-oil-tanker-in-the-strait-of-hormuz.html

Back to Top

Saudi Aramco to Sign 4 Mn TPA US LNG Deals with Woodside, Commonwealth

Saudi Aramco to Sign 4 Mn TPA US LNG Deals with Woodside, Commonwealth

Saudi Aramco is set to sign two major liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply agreements in the US next week with Woodside Energy and Commonwealth LNG, according to sources cited by Reuters.

These deals, expected to be finalized during Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s visit to Washington, significantly advance Aramco’s ambition to become a dominant player in the global LNG market.

These transactions move Aramco closer to its target capacity of 20 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of LNG, adding to the 4.5 mtpa already in progress, which includes a 20-year purchase agreement with NextDecade for 1.2 mtpa from the Rio Grande LNG project.

The new agreements would add up to 4 mtpa of US LNG supply to Aramco’s portfolio. Specifically, Aramco would secure up to 2 mtpa of LNG from Commonwealth LNG’s planned 9.5 mtpa facility in Cameron, Louisiana.

A parallel deal with Woodside Energy includes acquiring a stake in the company’s $17.5 billion Louisiana LNG project, alongside an offtake agreement for up to another 2 mtpa.

For Commonwealth LNG, the supply agreement is a critical step, bringing the company closer to selling its targeted 8 mtpa ahead of a final investment decision (FID) later this year. The company is developing the US’s first integrated LNG export facility. Woodside has already given final approval for its three-train, 16.5 mtpa project, scheduled to begin production in 2029.

According to Reuters, Aramco declined to comment on the potential deals. Woodside referenced an earlier collaboration agreement to explore joint opportunities, and Commonwealth LNG did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/saudi-aramco-to-sign-4-mn-tpa-us-lng-deals-with-woodside-commonwealth/

Back to Top

Satellite Images Confirm Destruction of Oil-Export Infrastructure in Novorossiysk

Satellite images showing the aftermath of a combined attack on the Sheskharis oil export terminal in Novorossiysk confirm that key oil-pumping equipment was destroyed, forcing a suspension of oil exports.

The Exilenova+ Telegram channel published the satellite image.

According to the channel’s analysts, critical damage was inflicted on essential oil-handling infrastructure – including systems that measure oil quality and volume, as well as technological pipelines – at one of Russia’s largest oil export terminals.

“These components are among the most vulnerable in the entire facility. Damage to pipelines, loading racks, or pumping lines effectively shuts down any possibility of loading tankers, even if the storage tanks remain intact,” the analysts noted.

According to Suspilne’s sources within the Security Service of Ukraine, the attack damaged the oil-loading standers at the berths, the pipeline infrastructure, and the pumping units.

According to Reuters, the Russian port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports after Ukraine’s overnight attack on November 14. At the same time, Russia’s main pipeline operator, Transneft, was also forced to suspend crude oil deliveries to the port.

Satellite images from November 15 confirm that no vessels were docked at the oil terminal — a situation not seen during its normal operation.

According to industry sources cited by the outlet, in October, the volume of Russian crude oil transported through the Sheskharis terminal in Novorossiysk reached 3.22 million tonnes, or 761,000 barrels per day. Over the first ten months of the year, the figure totaled 24.716 million tonnes.

Satellite image of the port of Novorossiysk dated November 15, 2025. Photo credits: MT_Anderson

Satellite image of the port of Novorossiysk dated November 15, 2025. Photo credits: MT_Anderson

In addition to crude oil, 1.794 million tonnes of petroleum products were exported through Novorossiysk in October, and petroleum product exports for January–October totaled 16.783 million tonnes.

According to three industry sources, the Ukrainian attack affected two oil berths. Damage was inflicted on Berth 1 and Berth 1A, which service tankers with deadweights of 40,000 and 140,000 tonnes, respectively.

Two sources reported that the Arlan oil tanker, sailing under Sierra Leone flag, was also damaged during the attack. This vessel is part of the so-called “shadow fleet” and is under sanctions imposed by the United Kingdom, the EU, Switzerland, Canada, and Australia.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported that the strikes on targets in Novorossiysk were executed using Neptun cruise missiles and strike UAVs of various types.


https://militarnyi.com/en/news/satellite-images-confirm-destruction-of-oil-export-infrastructure-in-novorossiysk/

Back to Top

China and India Boost Crude Purchases as Global Glut Looms

By Irina Slav - Nov 17, 2025, 3:30 AM CS

China and India are buying more crude oil, providing some respite for producers facing expectations of oversupply, Bloomberg reported today, citing unnamed trading sources.

The two large importers have been buying mostly Middle Eastern cargos, the Bloomberg sources said, noting that these were being sold at a discount, with China the bigger buyer and India raising its purchases since the start of the month only marginally.

Purchases so far in November featured more Upper Zakum grade shipments and additional volumes of Kuwaiti crude, the publication reported. Indian refiners also bought West African crude and some Qatari crude.

“There is a lot of supply in the market,” Manoj Heda, executive director of international trade at India’s state-owned Bharat Petroleum, said at an industry event, as quoted by Bloomberg. But “demand centers are only limited to China and India.”

China and India are the biggest buyers of Russian crude, which is currently being squeezed by the latest U.S. sanctions, prompting the buying countries to look for alternatives. Last month, however, Indian oil buyers ramped up their intake of Russian crude ahead of the new sanction package’s entry into effect, Finland-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air reported. The outlet tracks Russian energy exports on a monthly basis.

Per CREA figures, India imported some 3.1 billion euros, or $3.6 billion, worth of Russian energy commodities, with crude oil making up 81% of the total and oil products making up another 7%. The remainder of Russian energy imports was coal. Crude oil imports from Russia in October booked an 11% increase on September, with two-thirds of that total going to private refiners. State refiners in India also ramped up Russian energy commodity imports, buying almost twice as much of these in October as they did in September. China, meanwhile, remained the biggest buyer of Russian energy commodities last month, ahead of the sanctions.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com


https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-and-India-Boost-Crude-Purchases-as-Global-Glut-Looms.html

Back to Top

Alternative Energy

RIO TINTO HAS MOTHBALLED JADAR LITHIUM DEPOSIT DEVELOPMENT PROJECT IN SERBIA

13 November 2025  

Rio Tinto Group has mothballed its $2.95 billion Jadar lithium project in Serbia, Bloomberg reported, according to the Serbian Economist.

The project will be transferred to “care and maintenance” mode in accordance with plans to simplify Rio Tinto’s asset portfolio and focus on more interesting opportunities in the short term, the document said.

A company spokesman confirmed to the agency the decision to mothball Jadar, which has large lithium-rich ore reserves.

The project, which never reached the production stage, faced many problems. The Serbian government has repeatedly changed its position on the issue of granting permits to develop the mine, which was strongly opposed by local communities.

“Given the lack of progress on the issue of permits, we can no longer maintain the previous level of expenditure and resource allocation,” the document said.

https://t.me/relocationrs/1742

Back to Top

Uranium

Trump Bets Big on a Nuclear Comeback

By Felicity Bradstock - Nov 15, 2025, 4:00 PM CST

  • The Trump administration plans to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity by 2050 and deploy 10 new large reactors by 2030, backed by major public funding and tech-sector investment.
  • Westinghouse, Cameco, and international partners like Japan and the U.K. are central to the expansion push, though Westinghouse’s troubled track record raises concerns.
  • Long development timelines, high costs, regulatory delays, and a diminished skills base make a rapid nuclear renaissance unlikely despite political momentum.

United States President Donald Trump is putting his money where his mouth is as he doubles down on efforts to accelerate the expansion of the country’s nuclear energy sector. The government will spend billions in public funding to reinvigorate U.S. nuclear power, following decades of underinvestment. Unlike renewable energy, Trump views nuclear power as key to expanding the U.S. electricity generation capacity and recently announced the target of quadrupling nuclear capacity by 2050.

In May, President Trump signed an executive order calling for the U.S. to develop 10 new large nuclear reactors by the end of the decade. In addition, several tech companies, including Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft, are providing billions in private funding to restart old nuclear plants, upgrade existing ones, and deploy new reactor technology to meet the growing demands from the data centres powering advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DoE) loan office will dedicate significant funds to the nuclear energy industry to support the development of new reactors. This week, the Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated, “We have significant lending authority at the loan programme office… By far the biggest use of those dollars will be for nuclear power plants — to get those first plants built.”

Wright expects the public support for the sector to encourage private actors to invest more heavily in nuclear power in the coming years. “When we leave office three years and three months from now, I want to see hopefully dozens of nuclear plants under construction,” said Wright.

In October, Trump came to an agreement with the owners of Westinghouse – uranium miner Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management – to invest $80 billion to build nuclear plants across the country. Westinghouse plans to construct large nuclear plants to be fitted with its modern AP1000 reactor design, which can power over 750,000 homes, according to the company. Cameco COO Grant Isaac suggested he would look to the DoE’s loans office to fund the development of the Westinghouse reactors.

However, critics are not so certain that Westinghouse will be able to deliver on its promises due to the company’s poor track record. The firm went bankrupt in 2017 after going over budget on large-scale nuclear projects in Georgia and South Carolina. Westinghouse will have to prove its ability to build the AP1000 on time and on budget to attract the investment it requires. 

The Trump administration has developed various international partnerships to help develop its nuclear power sector in recent months. In September, Japan committed to investing in the Westinghouse nuclear project. The Asian country also agreed on an investment deal for Hitachi GE Vernova to build small modular reactors (SMRs). 

Also in September, the U.S. signed a multibillion-dollar deal with the United Kingdom to expand nuclear power across both countries. The new Atlantic Partnership for Advanced Nuclear Energy is aimed at accelerating the construction of new reactors and providing reliable, low-carbon energy for high-demand sectors, such as data centres.

The question now is, just how long will it take to achieve the U.S. nuclear renaissance? It typically takes a decade or longer to develop a new nuclear power plant, and while adding additional reactors to existing plants can be faster, licensing and approval can take several years. In addition, after decades of stagnation in the sector, developing nuclear reactors in the U.S. can be extremely costly and slow, due to the lack of expertise, compared to rapidly growing nuclear powers, such as China.

In China, developing a new nuclear reactor now takes between five and six years on average, much faster than the decade-long timeline in most Western countries. This is supported by China’s strong regulatory system and tried-and-tested development methods. Meanwhile, in the U.S., just powering up a disused reactor, such as that of Three Mile Island, can take several years to achieve. The projects being funded by tech companies, which focus on the development of SMRs, are not expected to produce power until the next decade, and these are much smaller than conventional reactors.

The Trump administration hopes to speed up the development process through a range of measures. One executive order calls for the nuclear power industry’s safety regulator to approve applications in no more than 18 months. The recent funding announcement from the DoE’s loan office is expected to help overcome the biggest bottleneck – funding. Congress has also kept its tax breaks in place for nuclear development to attract private funding to the sector.

Thanks to greater political support and public financing, the U.S. nuclear energy sector could rapidly expand its power capacity over the coming decades. However, achieving the level of acceleration in nuclear development expected by the Trump administration is highly unlikely due to a range of challenges hindering development, from expertise to cost and manufacturing capacity. So, while a nuclear renaissance is possible, it is unlikely to be seen within the next decade. 


https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Trump-Bets-Big-on-a-Nuclear-Comeback.html

Back to Top

Agriculture

Drought conditions increase in southern U.S.


Drought_test.png

The November 11th drought monitor shows 68% of the U.S. is experiencing abnormal dryness or drought, down less than 1% from the previous week, with 44.4% in D1 level drought or higher, up .6%.

A mostly dry weather pattern dominated across the southern half of the U.S. this past week, although drought conditions worsened only slightly for most areas due to cooler temperatures and cloud coverage, especially in the Southeast. Precipitation was more common in the northern U.S., with widespread improvements in the Pacific northwest from the coast to western Montana. Precipitation was spottier in the Midwest, with some areas of Illinois and Indiana near Lake Michigan receiving lake-effect snowfall to help mitigate dryness.

Currently 29% of corn acres are in D1-D4 drought (down 1%), with 31% of soybean acres (down 1%), and 39% of winter wheat acres (up 1%) also impacted. For livestock, 28% of the U.S.cattle herd is in D1-D4 drought conditions (up 2%), with 36% of dairy cattle also in drought (unchanged). The forecast for next week shows mostly dry conditions for much of the U.S. outside of the Pacific northwest and should allow for harvest and fall tillage to proceed well.


https://www.profarmer.com/news/agriculture-news/drought-conditions-increase-southern-u-s

Back to Top

Base Metals

Glencore to invest in Chinese aluminium smelter’s IPO

Glencore and Hillhouse are poised to participate as cornerstone investors in the deal.

GLENCORE and Hillhouse Investment plan to invest in Chuangxin Industries’ upcoming initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong, people familiar with the matter said.

This signals confidence in the Chinese aluminium smelter’s prospects as the metal’s price surges.

The Swiss commodity giant and the asset manager are poised to participate as cornerstone investors, the people said, asking not to be identified while discussing a private matter.

Cornerstone investors refer to IPO buyers who are guaranteed a share allocation for agreeing to hold the stock for a period of time.

China Hongqiao Group, the country’s largest private aluminium producer, is also set to be a cornerstone, the people said.

The three firms and other cornerstone investors may buy about half of the deal, they added.

Based in China’s Inner Mongolia, Chuangxin plans to start taking investor orders as soon as Friday (Nov 14), for an IPO that may fetch about US$700 million.

Chinese aluminium smelters, producing half of the world’s primary aluminium, are enjoying elevated profitability.

They are helped by a government-imposed capacity ceiling, and resilient demand from the renewable energy sector.

Aluminium has also been one of the strongest performers on the London Metal Exchange in recent months, reaching a three-year high last week.

Deliberations are ongoing, and details of the deal, including the investments, may change, the people added.

A representative for Glencore had no immediate comment. A China Hongqiao representative declined to comment. Chuangxin and Hillhouse did not respond to requests for comments.

Chuangxin counts on the production of primary aluminium and alumina for much of its business.

Its biggest customer is Shanghai-listed Innovation New Material Technology, which is headed by Chuangxin’s chairman, Cui Lixin, a filing with the Hong Kong stock exchange said.

Hong Kong listings are set to close 2025 at a four-year high, with proceeds potentially topping US$40 billion, Bloomberg Intelligence’s estimate said.

But some listings have recently flopped on their debuts, signalling that investors are becoming increasingly sceptical after a banner year.

China International Capital and Huatai Securities are arranging Chuangxin’s IPO. 


https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/glencore-invest-chinese-aluminium-smelters-ipo

Back to Top

Zambia, a Copper Prize, Becomes the Stage for a Global Rail Race

Zambia, a Copper Prize, Becomes the Stage for a Global Rail Race

  • EU grants €50M to upgrade Zambia's Livingstone-Ndola railway
  • Project supports Lobito Corridor, key copper export route to Angola
  • China, EU, and U.S. compete for regional infrastructure, mineral access

The European Union and Zambia signed a 50 million-euro funding agreement this week to upgrade the Livingstone-Ndola railway. The deal strengthens Zambia’s position in the race to develop key logistics corridors in Southern and Eastern Africa.

The financing will modernize key sections operated by Zambia Railways and overhaul signalling systems. It adds to existing European and US support for the Lobito Corridor, which is viewed as one of the most competitive mineral transport routes on the continent.

The Lobito rail project aims to provide a faster route for exporting copper and cobalt from Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo through Angola’s Atlantic coast. Many analysts see the initiative as a Western counter to China’s growing influence over regional infrastructure.

China deepened its longstanding presence in the region last September when it approved 1.4 billion dollars to modernize the TAZARA railway, which links Zambia to the Tanzanian port of Dar es Salaam. The TAZARA upgrade, one of the largest China-Africa cooperation projects, is expected to restore the corridor’s role as a major export route to the Indian Ocean.

At the same time, Zambia is considering a third option with a planned rail corridor involving Zambia, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. The initiative aims to improve access to the Mozambican ports of Beira and Maputo, reflecting Lusaka’s effort to diversify its logistics routes.

Analysts say the growing wave of investment reflects a geopolitical and economic race among major powers seeking secure access to copper and other critical minerals that are abundant across the region. Zambia itself aims to raise national copper output to 3 million tonnes a year by 2031, underscoring its increasing importance in global mineral supply chains.

Henoc Dossa


https://www.ecofinagency.com/news-infrastructures/1611-50529-zambia-a-copper-prize-becomes-the-stage-for-a-global-rail-race

Back to Top

Company Incorporated in England and Wales, Partnership number OC344951 Registered address: Commodity Intelligence LLP The Wellsprings Wellsprings Brightwell-Cum-Sotwell Oxford OX10 0RN.

Commodity Intelligence LLP is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

The material is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only.

Officers and employees, including persons involved in the preparation or issuance of this material may from time to time have 'long' or 'short' positions in the securities of companies mentioned herein. No part of this material may be redistributed without the prior written consent of Commodity Intelligence LLP.

© 2025 - Commodity Intelligence LLP