President Donald Trump has signed a proclamation aimed at strengthening the country’s domestic aluminium industry by encouraging companies to invest in new and expanded smelting facilities in the United States while adjusting aluminium imports on national security grounds.
Issued under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, the proclamation directs the U.S. Secretary of Commerce to create an incentive program for companies that invest in building, expanding, or refurbishing primary aluminium smelters in the country.
Under the program, companies will be asked to submit onshoring plans. Those whose proposals are approved will be allowed to import a corresponding amount of primary aluminium into the United States at a tariff rate that is half of the standard Section 232 rate.
The Commerce Secretary will monitor compliance with these plans and can suspend or revoke the tariff benefits, including retroactively, if companies fail to meet their commitments.
According to a White House fact sheet, the move is intended to strengthen the nation’s defense and defense-related industrial base. Aluminium is a critical material used in military equipment such as armored vehicles, naval vessels, spacecraft, missiles, and other strategic systems. Many of these applications require high-strength advanced aluminium alloys that can only be produced using primary aluminium.
The White House said demand for primary aluminium in the United States currently exceeds the production capacity of domestic smelters, making increased local production a national priority. The administration said the proclamation is designed to encourage more aluminium production to return to the United States.
The White House also said Trump has continued to use Section 232 since returning to office to protect domestic manufacturing by imposing or strengthening tariffs on products including steel, aluminium, copper, trucks, automobiles, timber, lumber, and pharmaceuticals.
https://indicanews.com/president-trump-announces-new-incentives-for-u-s-aluminium-smelters/
Oil pressures a reluctant ECB to raise interest rates again this Thursday
Updated 07/22/2026 - 06:27 ET
The renewed tensions in the war in the Middle East have pushed the price of crude oil above $90, the same level it was at in June when the central bank raised rates for the first time in three years to 'hunt down' inflation
President of European Central Bank Christine Lagarde.AP
Since the last meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on June 11, the Old Continent has experienced the first interest rate hike in three years, eight days after the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran, and again, the return to armed conflict on July 7 due to a lack of understanding, at least at the political level. Since then, insiders in the Middle East negotiations claim that, on the diplomatic front, no one has walked away from the table and that the talks are ongoing. The main bottleneck remains in the Strait of Hormuz where traffic remains paralyzed awaiting ships to transit without fear of being attacked. The issue is that, almost a month and a half later, Brent crude oil has risen back to $90 per barrel, the same level it was at on June 11 when Christine Lagarde decided to take the lead as the first central bank to dare to raise official rates to combat inflation generated by the war in Iran. No one else has followed suit, forcing the ECB President to defend her decision on every occasion she is asked.
Analysis firms and investment banks assume that the ECB will not raise interest rates by another 25 basis points at its Thursday meeting, but leave that possibility open to surprises. The forecast is that it will be in September when Lagarde decides to adjust the interest rate again, which has once again squeezed the pockets of European mortgage holders in a market where entities acknowledge having tightened credit in the second quarter, with even stricter conditions, and with a collapsed demand.
"Without major surprises in the latest data, such as inflation or Eurozone activity, and with energy prices not far from the ECB's latest forecasts (lower oil and higher gas), there is no sense of urgency to move interest rates now," state Bank of America. And this is the key. The last quarterly review in June - when the MoU was not yet known, announced 24 hours later - pointed to Brent crude at $97 by the end of the year, while estimating a price for European natural gas at €45.6 per megawatt-hour on December 31. Where are prices today? European oil futures are trading around $90, 24% higher than when the war began on February 28. Dutch gas is close to €60 (and near highs), 85% higher due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
But what worries the market the most - and the US Administration - is the price of fuels, which has anchored at highs and continues to anticipate oil above $100. The price of gasoline, used as a reference in the US, is around $3.41, 36% higher than at the start of the war; and heating oil, used as a reference for diesel, is around $4.08, 60% more expensive. "The prices of refined products, such as diesel and gasoline, tell a very different story" about what the market actually anticipates, according to Société Générale as reported by EuroNext.
This Thursday, the Spanish Congress is expected to decide in an extraordinary session on the new decree-law that includes, among other measures, the extension of tax relief on fuels for households, which expired last June and eliminated a reduced VAT of 10%, already noticeable in the cost of filling up the tank, compounded by the holiday exodus.
"Oil is once again taking the lead," say analysts at ING. "A rate hike in September is fully priced in by the market, and unless oil prices drop before that meeting [scheduled for September 9 and 10], we doubt the market will change its mind. Even if the ECB were to decide to raise rates this week and adopt a much more hawkish tone, we doubt that interest rates will go much further" considering that real rates in the market, that is, how the June decision has impacted bond yields, are already at much higher levels.
70 years since the scandal surrounding the publication of 'Peyton Place'
In a recent study published by the ECB in April, the institution analyzes the impact of the two major oil crises experienced in Europe: the Gulf War and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in addition to the current conflict in the Middle East. One of the main conclusions is that the real impact on the eurozone economy has been decreasing since the 1990s. "A 10% crude oil supply shock leads to a cut in the EU GDP of around 0.2-0.3 percentage points over the following three years," the ECB states in its note. It also affects private consumption, on average just under 0.2 points in the first year, but mainly investment, with the greatest impact from the second year onwards, when it would drop by around 0.6 points. On the real economy side, what the ECB has confirmed are tougher credit conditions for citizens, as well as a collapse in demand from companies and households seeking a mortgage due to higher loan costs from rate hikes and soaring housing prices.
Interest rates in the Eurozone rose again last June after a year in which the ECB's decision had been to keep them stable. The new cycle of hikes anticipated by analysts was motivated by the war initiated by the US against Iran on February 28 due to the impact that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz had on eurozone prices. The new drop in the EU's CPI seen in June, down to 2.8% growth, places price levels already below the ECB's upwardly revised 2026 forecasts, which placed it at 3% in December. The market is pricing in another rate hike for the September meeting, when the three references could rise by another 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.5% and the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, at highs last seen in March 2025.
https://www.mundoamerica.com/news/2026/07/22/6a609b02e9cf4a04078b4576.html
While Beijing has lifted refined fuel export restrictions this month amid elevated global oil prices and ample national reserves, it has also introduced compliance requirements for refiners – a cautious pivot aimed at safeguarding domestic stockpiles, according to three sources with knowledge of the matter.
“With the interim truce between Washington and Tehran having collapsed, Beijing has adopted a more cautious stance on easing curbs for fuel exports,” a person familiar with the matter said in an interview, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
“Refiners now face dual requirements: they can only ship fuels under allocated quotas, while keeping their inventory levels above the end-February mark. Domestic consumption security remains the top priority.”
The latest export quotas – covering refined products including petrol, diesel and jet fuel – were allocated mostly to state-owned domestic refiners, the sources said.
The curbs on fuel exports were first introduced in March following the outbreak of the US-Israeli war on Iran , though Beijing did not formally acknowledge the restrictions. Fu Chengyu, former chairman of China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Sinopec, the country’s two leading state oil giants, outlined details of the policy in an article published on July 14.
“Since the second quarter of 2026, China’s National Development and Reform Commission and Ministry of Commerce have tightened refined oil export supervision,” Fu wrote in Energy Intelligence, an independent energy news and data provider.
The benchmark diesel price used as the basis for most fuel surcharges rose this week by the second-largest amount since the start of the Iran war.
The Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration average retail diesel price climbed 33.8 cents/gallon to $5.134/g, published Tuesday but effective Monday.
The size of the increase is the second largest since the benchmark price rose 96.2 cts/g on March 9, the first time the DOE/EIA price measured a full week of market movement following the launch of military action against Iran by the U.S. and Israel on February 28/March 1.
With the benchmark price having moved up sharply two weeks in a row, it is now 55.6 cts/g more than where it stood just three weeks ago.
Retail prices, as they generally do, are reacting after the fact to increases in the price of ultra low sulfur diesel (ULSD) on the CME commodity exchange.
But they are likely only reflecting a part of the increases in that price just since the posting of the DOE/EIA price one week ago as the normal lag stays in place.
A $1 increase since July 2 is in sight
The pace of change in the futures market, if it continues, could end up adding $1/g in the price of ULSD on CME in the next few days.
ULSD's low settlement in the recent cycle was $3.1822/g on July 2, not even three weeks ago. In the 11 settlements since then, ULSD has risen in seven of those days. While that doesn't seem like much, the increases have been as high as just over 39 cts/g, 27 cts/g and 19 cts/g. By contrast, the biggest one-day decline was 8.59 cts/g.
The end result is that ULSD on CME settled Monday at $4.119/g, up 5.44 cts/g on the day and closing in a $1/gallon increase since that recent July 2 low. Monday's settlement was the highest since May 19.
ULSD was slightly higher in trade Tuesday, up less than 2 cts/g at approximately 10:45 a.m. EDT.
With prices having climbed over the last two weeks as military action resumed, the bullish voices in the market who were on their heels about a month ago are becoming more prominent.
A new front
Adding to the market sentiment Tuesday were reports about possible Houthi attacks once again on Saudi Arabia and the Bab el-Mandeb strait on the southern end of the Red Sea. Those attacks could impact Saudi exports of oil out of Yanbu, which is the western terminus of the country's east-west pipeline that has allowed the Kingdom to divert oil exports out of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and instead exit the country through the Yanbu port.
https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/big-jump-benchmark-diesel-price-161648094.html
Pakistan has purchased its seventh spot LNG cargo since Qatar Energy declared force majeure earlier this year, paying a record price of $21.88 per MMBtu as ongoing regional tensions continue to disrupt long-term gas supplies.
Read More: Pakistan seeks more Qatar LNG cargoes
Pakistan LNG Limited (PLL) received only one bid for its latest spot tender, which was submitted by TotalEnergies Gas and Power Limited. The offer was reviewed and found technically and commercially compliant before being accepted by authorities.
The cargo, with a volume of 140,000 cubic metres, is scheduled for delivery during the July 27–28 window. The purchase highlights Pakistan’s increasing dependence on the expensive spot LNG market due to continued disruptions in contracted supplies.
QatarEnergy declared force majeure on March 4, 2026, following an attack on its Ras Laffan LNG production facility. The disruption, linked to rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and wider regional instability, has affected LNG deliveries under Pakistan’s long-term agreement with Qatar.
The force majeure situation has reportedly been extended until at least August, forcing Pakistan to arrange additional spot cargoes to meet domestic gas requirements.
Earlier in July, PLL awarded another spot LNG cargo to PetroChina International at $20.6999 per MMBtu for delivery on July 21–22. The latest purchase from TotalEnergies has surpassed that price, becoming the most expensive spot LNG cargo acquired by Pakistan since returning to the spot market.
With the arrival of the latest shipment, Pakistan will have imported 12 LNG cargoes during the current supply period. These include seven spot purchases through competitive bidding and five government-to-government cargoes supplied by QatarEnergy under the existing long-term contract.
The increased reliance on spot LNG has raised concerns over the country’s energy import costs. Spot market prices remain significantly higher than rates available through long-term agreements, increasing pressure on foreign exchange reserves and power generation expenses.
Read More: Pakistan receives seventh LNG cargo since April as Mideast tensions ease
Energy officials said LNG-based electricity generation currently costs around Rs35.5 per unit. In June 2026, LNG-fired power plants generated 1,480 GWh, contributing 11.02 per cent of Pakistan’s total electricity production.
Officials warned that continued dependence on costly LNG imports could increase electricity generation costs and put further pressure on electricity tariffs in the coming months
Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday morning as the market continued to assess the prospects for a ceasefire between the US and Iran following a new exchange of attacks between the two countries, reports Reuters.
A barrel of Brent, the European reference crude, is trading at USD 88.55 on Tuesday morning, up from USD 88.39 on Monday afternoon. Meanwhile, US benchmark oil WTI is selling at USD 82.82 against USD 82.71 Monday afternoon.
Oil prices remain influenced by uncertainty surrounding the conflict between the US and Iran. The market is reacting to reports of diplomatic efforts toward a potential ceasefire, even as new attacks keep military tensions high. According to an Iranian official, mediators have submitted a proposal for a 10-day ceasefire, which could potentially get the memorandum of understanding back on track.
At the same time, the conflict between the US and Iran continues to create uncertainty in the oil market after the two countries carried out new attacks against each other. In addition, the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen announced on Monday that they would impose a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, which increases the risk of disruptions to the global energy supply.
“The Houthis’ threats of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia are significant because they increase the risk of disruptions at yet another major oil exporter,” says Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade.
Meanwhile, a preliminary Reuters survey on Monday showed that US crude oil and gasoline inventories are expected to have fallen last week, while distillate stockpiles are expected to have risen.
https://energywatch.com/EnergyNews/Oil___Gas/article19487715.ece
The U.S. emergency oil reserve has drained to its lowest level since 1983
The SPR dropped to 311.4 million barrels last week as the government continues a 172 million-barrel emergency release tied to the war with Iran
Department of Energy data show the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve shed about 5.1 million barrels in a single week, bringing total stocks to 311.4 million barrels — a level not seen since March 1983.
The ongoing withdrawals stem from a U.S. pledge to release 172 million barrels from the reserve. Reuters reports that SPR inventories have dropped 104.04 million barrels since the war with Iran erupted at the end of February, measured through July 17.
The Trump administration announced the 172 million-barrel release on March 11 to counter supply disruptions caused by the conflict, which has disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which about 20% of the world's oil transited before the war began, according to The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. release was part of a broader 400 million-barrel action coordinated by the International Energy Agency across 32 member nations.
The mechanism differs from past SPR actions: rather than an outright sale, the government is lending crude to companies that must repay the same volume with an added premium at a future date, according to S&P Global $SPGI -3.81%. Through a succession of solicitations launched from mid-March onward, the Department of Energy has contracted out more than 133 million barrels, with repayment premiums on individual deals running as high as 28% and no lower than 18%. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in March that for every barrel released, the agency expects to receive back more than 1.2 barrels.
When commercial and SPR holdings are combined, total U.S. crude inventories stood at 726.2 million barrels as of July 10 — down 129 million barrels and the lightest since 1984, according to Reuters.
The reserve's declining volumes have also drawn attention to its physical condition. According to S&P Global, a Government Accountability Office report released in early July found that the SPR could draw down oil at only about 61% of its originally intended rate as of December 2025, while its capacity to accept returning crude had slipped to just 56% of design specifications. "The SPR's operational capability to meet mission demands is at risk," the GAO report said. The GAO further found that the agency's $1.4 billion, decade-in-the-making Life Extension Phase 2 overhaul has repeatedly slipped behind schedule and shrunk in scope, and that no update to the Department of Energy's overarching SPR strategy has been issued in nearly a decade.
At 311.4 million barrels, the reserve remains above its statutory minimum of 252.4 million barrels, which restricts certain limited drawdowns under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act.
https://qz.com/us-strategic-petroleum-reserve-lowest-level-1983-072126
Harmony Gold Mining ( (HMY) ) has shared an update.
Harmony Gold Mining reported a fatal incident at its TauTona service shaft near Carletonville, where a female employee lost her life on Sunday, 19 July 2026. The event underscored ongoing safety risks in deep-level mining and drew immediate attention from regulators.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources and other stakeholders were notified, and Harmony’s management is supporting the family and colleagues of the deceased. Chief executive Beyers Nel said the company is working with authorities to understand the cause, apply lessons learned, and reinforce measures to prevent similar incidents, highlighting safety oversight as a critical concern for workers and investors.
The most recent analyst rating on (HMY) stock is a Hold with a $24.00 price target.
(RTTNews) - Canada's equity benchmark S&P/TSX Composite Index moved up firmly Tuesday morning, lifted by strong gains in materials and energy sectors, even as stocks from other sectors turned in a mixed performance.
Reports about fresh diplomatic efforts to ease the Middle East conflict appeared to be aiding sentiment, while U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to impose an additional 50% tariff on a wide range of goods imported from Canada weighed a bit, limiting market's gains.
Trump signed three Proclamations pursuant to Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 on Monday to impose additional tariffs, saying that the move was in retaliation for what he called "Canada's discriminatory treatment of American products" such as cars, dairy and alcohol.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index was up 213.32 points or 0.61% at 35,173.64 a little while ago.
WTI crude futures climbed up nearly 3% to $85.70 a barrel, triggering strong buying in the energy sector.
Firm precious metals prices fueled demand for materials stocks. Gold and silver futures moved up by about 1.5% and 4%, respectively to $4,073 an ounce and 59.300 an ounce. Copper prices jumped as well, rising nearly 3% to $6.5300 per pound.
The Materials Capped Index climbed more than 3.5%. Discovery Mining, Eldorado Gold, Hudbay Minerals, 5N Plus, Capstone Copper, Ivanhoe Mines, Trekor Metals, Americas Gold & Silver Corporation, Ero Copper, Aris Mining Corporation, G Mining Ventures, Avino Silver & Gold Mines and Novagold gained 5%-8.5%.
The Energy Capped Index moved up 1.7%. Vermilion Energy, Parex Resources, Enerflex, Whitecap Resources, Tamarack Valley Energy, Peyto Exploration, Canadian Natural Resources and Baytex Energy climbed 2%-3.1%.
Once viewed primarily as a barometer of global manufacturing, copper prices are increasingly moving on expectations that the AI boom will fuel years of investment in data centers, electric grids, and power infrastructure.
While data centers account for only 1% of global copper demand today, Goldman argues investors are increasingly pricing the metal based on expectations for the AI boom — including years of expected spending on data centers, power grids, transformers and transmission infrastructure rather than current consumption alone.
"AI has become a key narrative shaping expectations for future power, grid and copper demand," Goldman Sachs commodities strategists led by Lavinia Forcellese wrote on Monday.
AI expectations have become an increasingly important driver of copper prices, according to Goldman Sachs. Chart: Goldman Sachs · Goldman Sachs
Copper is used throughout the AI ecosystem, from the miles of electrical wiring inside data centers to the transformers, switchgear, and high-voltage transmission lines needed to deliver power to the infrastructure underpinning the AI build-out.
Goldman argues those future infrastructure needs — not today's physical demand — are becoming an increasingly important force in copper markets.
In the bank's model, AI-related expectations have overtaken more traditional drivers such as China's growth outlook, moves in the US dollar, and physical market tightness as the largest contributor to copper's cumulative price gains since early 2025.
That said, those traditional demand drivers haven't disappeared. China remains the world's largest consumer of the metal, accounting for roughly half of global demand, and the nation's construction and manufacturing sectors play an outsized role in determining prices.
But investors are increasingly looking toward the enormous amount of electrical infrastructure expected to be built over the coming decade. Big Tech giants — particularly the hyperscalers Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG) — have pledged hundreds of billions of dollars toward AI infrastructure, while utilities around the world race to expand generation and transmission networks to meet the surge in electricity demand.
The US could face an electricity generation shortfall of 100 gigawatts between 2026 and 2030, according to Bank of America, driven in part by booming chip production and demand as well as US utilities' inability to meet the moment. Between 2026 and 2030, electrical capacity demand is expected to reach 230 gigawatts or more.
At the same time, the physical copper market has continued to tighten. Visible Chinese copper inventories have fallen toward the bottom of their seasonal range, while tighter enforcement of scrap regulations has pushed manufacturers toward refined copper. Smelter maintenance has also constrained cathode output, leaving the market with relatively little inventory cushion.
China saw its stainless steel exports fall by 17.6% y/y in 1H2026
In June alone, the country exported 446,000 tonnes of this product
In the first half of 2026, China reduced its stainless steel exports by 17.6% year-on-year to 2.06 million tonnes. This was reported by Mysteel, citing data from the country’s General Administration of Customs.
Industry sources attribute the decline to weak overseas demand and rising trade barriers. With regard to the latter, this specifically refers to new EU safeguard quotas and the European CBAM, as well as anti-dumping duties in several Asian markets.
Stainless steel imports into China in January–June fell by 8.5% year-on-year – to 757,000 tonnes.
In June alone, the country exported 446,000 tonnes of this product (+7.3% month-on-month and +14.4% year-on-year). Stainless steel imports for the month totalled 120,000 tonnes (+32% month-on-month and +9.8% year-on-year).
It should be noted that in the first half of 2026, China reduced its steel exports by 5.6% year-on-year to 54.87 million tonnes. In June alone, the figure stood at 10.32 million tonnes, down 0.2% compared with the previous month, but up 6.6% year-on-year.
Total steel imports into the country in January–June amounted to 2.69 million tonnes (-11.3% year-on-year).
As reported by GMK Center, China reduced its steel production by 3% year-on-year in January–June 2026, to 499.95 million tonnes. In June alone, the figure stood at 83.67 million tonnes, up 0.4% year-on-year.
https://gmk.center/en/news/china-saw-its-stainless-steel-exports-fall-by-17-6-y-y-in-1h2026/
ArcelorMittal, Europe’s largest steel producer, has announced a price increase for long products. The cost of sections, rebar and wire rod will rise by €25 per tonne ($28.5/t). This was reported by Kallanish.
The current market situation remains challenging for European steelmakers. The main factor putting pressure on production costs has been the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which has caused a surge in the prices of natural gas, electricity and logistics. Following the market leader’s lead, other European producers of long products are also revising their prices in an attempt to offset costs ahead of scheduled plant shutdowns in August.
At present, the long products market in Europe remains sluggish due to the start of the summer holiday season and scheduled maintenance. Deals are being concluded mainly for small volumes. Scrap metal prices have fallen this month, but analysts note that they have already bottomed out.
Experts expect business activity to pick up and prices to rise again in September. A further driver for the market will be a significant reduction in import quotas for wire rod and reinforcing bars, which will be felt most acutely by Eastern European countries, which traditionally rely on substantial imports of these products.
As reported by GMK Center, ArcelorMittal had already raised prices for flat steel products for the European market in July. Price increases in northern Europe will amount to €20 per tonne, whilst in the south of the continent the rise will be more substantial — €50 per tonne. Tougher market conditions in southern Europe, particularly in Spain, have enabled ArcelorMittal to implement more radical price rises there.
