Russia warns NATO of possible nuclear response if Kaliningrad is cut off
Moscow claims that NATO is preparing an air and naval blockade in the Baltic Sea.
By Reuters
Published On 30 Sep 2026
Russia has warned NATO it is prepared to use its entire arsenal, including nuclear weapons, if the Western alliance attempts to cut off the Baltic exclave of Kaliningrad, according to a diplomatic document sent to member states.
The diplomatic memo sent on Wednesday claimed Moscow has “information that NATO is preparing an air and naval blockade of Kaliningrad”.
NATO’s response came through its Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who said that NATO is a defensive alliance and that Russia should “stop the nuclear threats”, calling the document unhelpful.
Rutte also downplayed the seriousness of the threat, saying that “Putin knows that he can never win” in a direct escalation with NATO.
Bordered by Poland and Lithuania, both NATO members, the Russian territory of Kaliningrad sits on the Baltic Sea. The region serves as a major military outpost, housing Russia’s Baltic fleet and nuclear-ready Iskander missile systems.
The exchange comes more than four and a half years into Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, as tensions increasingly spill into neighbouring states.
Poland has heightened its air defence posture following alleged incursions into its airspace in recent weeks, while Danish authorities said a Russian warship fired two flares near a Danish military helicopter over the Baltic Sea two weeks ago.
Indian state-owned LPG importers have issued a joint tender seeking around 2.75 mn t of liquefied petroleum gas from the United States for delivery during 2027, according to a document reviewed by Reuters. Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are seeking monthly cargoes under term supply arrangements.
The tender calls for four very large gas carrier cargoes each month, with every cargo containing 46,000 t split evenly between propane and butane. The shipments would be delivered during each month of 2027. The tender also seeks one 45,000-t cargo per month on a free-on-board basis and remains valid until October 22.
LPG consists of propane and butane, and India is the world’s second-largest importer of the fuel after China. The country imported 21.85 mn t of LPG in 2025, with about 90 per cent sourced from the Middle East. Imports accounted for around 66 per cent of India’s overall LPG consumption, according to government data.
India is seeking to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern supplies after disruptions linked to the war in Iran affected flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The United States has become the country’s leading supplier of LPG, with shipments reaching a record 3.9 mn t through August this year. The government has directed the three refiners to source at least 15 per cent of India’s 2027 LPG imports through US term contracts.
The move follows India’s first US term supplies earlier this year, covering about 2.2 mn t, or 10 per cent of total inbound shipments. It is also expected to widen India’s supply pool and help narrow its trade surplus with the United States as New Delhi pursues a broader trade agreement with Washington.
The American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected build in United States crude oil inventories, according to Investing.com, a result that ran counter to what the market had been anticipating.
The weekly crude stock data showed an increase of 1.019 million barrels, a notable divergence from a forecast that had pointed to a decline of 1.900 million barrels. The outcome suggests demand for crude was softer than analysts had expected.
Measured against the prior week, when inventories grew by 1.786 million barrels, the most recent gain was smaller. Even so, the continued accumulation of crude stocks points to persistent supply pressure, a condition that can influence crude oil prices and overall market sentiment.
The API report is closely watched by market participants because it offers a window into the supply and demand balance of the American petroleum sector. A rise in crude inventories is generally read as a sign of weaker demand and tends to weigh on crude oil prices, while a drawdown is typically associated with stronger demand and can support prices. The unexpected build reported this week may therefore act as a drag on crude prices in the near term.
The gap between the projected decline and the actual increase highlights how complex the current market environment has become. Shifting demand patterns, geopolitical factors and production decisions by major oil-producing nations are among the forces continuing to generate volatility in the oil market.
With the latest figures now in hand, traders and analysts are expected to turn their attention to forthcoming reports and economic indicators that could shed more light on where crude oil demand and supply are heading. How the market responds to the data is likely to be important in setting near-term price direction and shaping investment approaches across the energy sector.
The key OPEC+ producers are set to leave their current crude oil output quotas unchanged for November at a meeting this weekend, anonymous sources familiar with the plans told Reuters on Wednesday.
The Gulf producers in OPEC+ have been producing and exporting much lower volumes sin ce the Iran war crippled traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the early September monthly meeting, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman decided to maintain the September 2026 required production quotas for October 2026, after having unwound a total of 1.65 million barrels per day (bpd) of collective cuts that began in 2023.
OPEC+ has been raising nominal production quotas for most of this year, but actual supply to the market has been well below the required levels of production, due to the Middle East conflict.
Crude oil production at many of the Gulf states has been seriously lagging behind the OPEC+ quotas, which have more or less become irrelevant since March as the Strait of Hormuz disruptions trapped a significant part of supply in the Persian Gulf.
The producer group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, appears to have shifted its focus to debates and discussions about the 2027 quotas, which the alliance plans to review and set the baselines for any cuts going forward.
In recent weeks, OPEC’s oil production fell in August due to lower Saudi supply, but the output at the core OPEC+ producers increased.
Saudi Arabia’s oil production fell in August amid Houthi threats to shipments in the Red Sea, dragging OPEC’s output down, a Bloomberg survey showed.
But OPEC’s data in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for September showed that total crude oil production in the whole OPEC+ alliance averaged 38.05 million bpd in August 2026, up by 300,000 bpd higher compared to July.
Production at OPEC+ is about 5 million bpd lower compared to pre-war levels, as almost all OPEC Gulf members are trailing behind their quotas due to the ongoing shipping disruptions.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
October 1, 2026
Shandong Zhuocheng is a Chinese lithium reagent supplier. Images: Shandong Zhuocheng
Shandong Zhuocheng, a critical chemical supplier in the lithium supply chain, is expanding into the global spodumene processing industry.
As the world’s appetite for lithium continues to surge, Australia is playing a pivotal role in expanding global spodumene production, providing the essential ore needed to produce more lithium carbonate equivalent.
This capacity increase is critical in ensuring that the global battery industry has the lithium supply needed to maintain its growth.
Alongside developing new projects and building new mines, efforts to maximise recovery rates are intensifying.
Much of the value chain is influenced by technologies, reagents – chemicals used to help separate and process minerals – and processing expertise developed in China, including work on the next generation of lithium collector chemicals for flotation.
This focus has been central to the growth of Chinese lithium reagent supplier Shandong Zhuocheng.
“In 1995, Liu Jianjun founded the company to address a gap in China’s iron ore processing industry, where cationic collectors for flotation were not yet available,” the company said.
“Ten years later, while China was turning its junior lepidolite projects into a huge industry, Shandong Zhuocheng developed tailored eco-friendly neutral to weakly alkaline collectors to maximise the lithium oxide extraction from this mineral, quickly becoming its largest, reliable supplier.
“Another decade later, the company started developing collectors for the fast-growing spodumene industry, while supporting African projects with the know-how and lithium collectors tailored to each mine’s individual flotation needs.”
While many aspects of the lithium processing industry are widely discussed, flotation remains relatively overlooked according to Shandong Zhuocheng, which it said could be attributed to the long-established standard use of oleic acid.
“Even though it is rather cheap with all the advantages of being renewable, today’s growing expectations on modern flotation rely on a combination of collectors and reagent regimes to balance and maximise recovery and selectivity,” the company said.
“Traditional methods struggle with the orebodies’ varying grades and complex mineral composition, and increasing regulations demand high-efficiency extraction processes with the lowest possible reagent consumption.”
This means a collector that works well at one deposit may not work as effectively at another, making site-specific fine-tuning and ongoing monitoring essential to maximise recovery. To simplify the process, Shandong Zhuocheng follows a ‘one mine, one product’ policy, including adjustments of the mixtures, as the process evolves or the ore body’s composition changes.
From major Chinese supplier to global player
Adapting its products to individual operations has been a key part of the company’s expansion beyond China.
Shandong Zhuocheng’s ability to quickly develop collectors for different types of minerals, as well as customise reagents for individual deposits, has helped establish it as China’s largest manufacturer of flotation reagents.
Its current production capacity sits around 100,000 tonnes per year, split evenly between lepidolite and spodumene collectors.
While the production of lepidolite collectors is running close to maximum capacity, serving at least 90 projects within China, Shandong Zhuocheng said spodumene collector production has room to grow.
Serving 27 Chinese-invested enterprises in Africa, the company said its spodumene collector production is running at around half of its capacity.
With international certifications covering quality (ISO 9001), workplace safety (ISO 45001) and environmental management (ISO 14001), Shandong Zhuocheng is well-placed for further growth across the world.
Shandong Zhuocheng’s expertise has been called upon at the Goulamina lithium mine in Mali, West Africa, where the initial flotation process was designed to use traditional oleic acid-based collectors. Following severe lithium losses to the tailings and a low overall recovery, partially caused by the desliming stage, Shandong Zhuocheng conducted trials to optimise the reagent scheme and process flowsheet. It developed a tailored reagent mix that removed the need for desliming, allowing all particle sizes to enter the flotation circuit directly.
Engineers from Shandong Zhuocheng inspecting Manono’s flotation circuit in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
At pilot scale, the lithium oxide content in the concentrate rose from 4.8 per cent to 5.26 per cent and the recovery rate from 75 per cent to 92 per cent.
“This technology is being scaled up and, upon validation, will secure this project a higher lithium recovery and a simplified stable flotation circuit, raising the concentrator’s performance to another level,” Shandong Zhuocheng said.
The company has also applied its expertise to other major lithium projects in Africa, including the Manono project in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
“With its unusually high lithium oxide content and the participation of the Zijin Mining Group, the Manono project is set to become one of the largest spodumene projects globally, second only to Australia’s Greenbushes and Pilgangoora mines,” Shandong Zhuocheng said.
Back in its own labs and pilot plant in China, Shandong Zhuocheng processed crude ore from the Manono project to develop a viable flotation circuit.
The resulting process enabled the whole ore, with an average lithium oxide content of 1.3 per cent, to enter the flotation circuit directly, producing a concentrate grading 5.2 per cent lithium oxide at an 88 per cent recovery rate. Meanwhile, the company’s technical experts were on the ground preparing for the next large-scale trials, with further improvements needing to be assessed on site.
Why now, why Australia
After successfully implementing its technology in many projects in Africa and now tackling some of its largest assets, Shandong Zhuocheng’s attention is turning to whether these gains can be achieved in Australia.
“Australia remains the dominant producer of spodumene with the fastest growth,” Shandong Zhuocheng said.
“Shandong Zhuocheng’s strong position, scale, expertise, and speed of adaptation make it a company Australian spodumene producers should watch.”
https://www.australianmining.com.au/the-chemistry-behind-better-lithium-recovery/
The Bank of Korea says its system to buy from local producers should be ready by December 14th, with up to 1 metric ton potentially available.
What's going on here?
South Korea’s central bank says it’s close to restarting gold buying for the first time in years – by purchasing metal from local producers, once a new system is ready by December 14th.
What does this mean?
The Bank of Korea, South Korea’s central bank, hasn’t added to its gold reserves since 2013. Now it wants the ability to buy domestically produced gold that would otherwise be exported, paying contract prices once its local transaction system is up and running. An official said the bank hasn’t set a purchase schedule or volume yet, though up to 1 metric ton could be available initially. That’s tiny versus the bank’s 104.4 metric tons of gold at the end of June.
https://finimize.com/content/south-koreas-central-bank-is-getting-ready-to-buy-gold-again
Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) in the United Arab Emirates has signed an agreement with port operator Gulftainer to increase aluminium exports from the country’s east coast. In the first year of the arrangement, EGA plans to ship up to 250,000 tonnes of metal via this route, The National reports.
Plans to increase shipments
In the second year, EGA intends to increase export volumes to 300,000 tonnes and subsequently continue expanding supplies. The company said the agreement is part of efforts to strengthen its logistics network for reliable aluminium deliveries to customers in more than 50 countries.
EGA Chief Executive Abdulnasser bin Kalban said the company has already made significant progress in diversifying its outbound logistics. According to him, the new agreement with Gulftainer will be another step towards ensuring reliable metal supplies.
Expansion of the terminal in Khor Fakkan
Gulftainer, which operates the container terminal in Khor Fakkan on the UAE’s east coast, will develop port infrastructure to meet EGA’s export needs. The company also has port facilities in the emirate of Sharjah, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the United States.
The operator plans to nearly triple the capacity of the Khor Fakkan terminal, from 3.5 million to 10 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU). Initially, capacity is to be increased to 5 million TEU within three months, then to 7 million and 10 million TEU within 24 and 36 months respectively. In July, Gulftainer announced $2 billion in investments in the development of Khor Fakkan, including quay and warehouse equipment, as well as the Al Dhaid and Sajaa dry ports.
The agreement was concluded amid plans by Emirati companies to diversify export routes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The National reports that shipping in the area is being disrupted by Iranian attacks on commercial vessels.
Errington Metals has outlined three deposits containing a mix of base and precious metals
A new exploration player drilling in the Sudbury basin has posted a first-ever mineral resource of copper, zinc and other base and precious metals from its project in the Chelmsford area.
Errington Metals is in the midst of a year-long 55,000-metre drilling program on the former Glencore property it acquired last year, about 25 kilometres northwest of the city.
The Thunder Bay-based company released an estimate for its Sudbury Basin Project showing 14.2 million tonnes of a mix of copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver in the measured and indicated category, sitting in three separate deposits, just off Highway 144.
The 5,600-hectare property had been largely dormant since 2014.
Glencore posted a mineral resource in 2013, but Errington launched an exploration program of its own to verify and expand that resource base.
The company said it’s fully cashed up to keep drilling into 2027. All three deposits show signs that more resources are there.
“This maiden mineral resource estimate establishes a strong foundation for advancing the Sudbury Basin Project," said Errington president-CEO Matthew Gollat in a news release.
"We have defined a significant increase in tonnes at similar grades compared to the previous estimates with more than 80 per cent of the resources classified as measured and indicated, demonstrating the potential value created by the extensive historical database and our disciplined technical work.
“To build on this momentum, and with all three deposits open for expansion, a fully funded drill program is underway focused on further increasing the resource base, advancing metallurgical studies and defining the path toward future development."
The company was formerly known as Black Pearl Resources before undergoing a name change earlier this year and going public, listing on the TSX-V in April.
Escondida is the world's largest copper mine by output, and its wage negotiations have historically been one of the market's recurring supply-risk events: rejections of the initial offer are the standard opening move rather than a signal that a stoppage is certain.
The established sequence in past cycles has run from rejection through government mediation to either a revised deal or a walkout, with prior stoppages at the mine having lasted weeks when they did occur. The transmission channel is concentrate supply: a prolonged outage at a mine of this scale tightens feed availability for smelters and shows up in treatment charges and spot premia before it registers in exchange inventories, which typically sit as a buffer in the early stages. The distinction that matters is between posturing, which has tended to fade quickly from prices, and an actual strike notice with a start date, which is where copper has historically priced disruption risk in earnest. Worth watching are the mediation steps under Chilean labour law, any revision to the offer, and whether workers vote to down tools or accept a sweetened package, since past episodes at this mine have often resolved at the final stage.
Cecilia Jamasmie | September 30, 2026 | 6:14 am
Bird’s-eye view of Cobre Panama mine. (Image: Google Earth.)
Panama should negotiate a restart of First Quantum Minerals’ (TSX: FM) Cobre Panama mine to fund its eventual orderly closure without burdening the state, a ministerial committee has recommended President José Raúl Mulino.
The three-minister commission recommendation follows an audit conducted by independent Swiss consultants, along with an assessment of the mine’s economic, environmental and legal implications. The commission stressed that its proposal was not a final decision, which rests with the president.
BMO analyst Matthew Murphy said the recommendations point toward negotiations that could allow Cobre Panama to operate long enough to meet Panama’s objectives, rather than an imminent shutdown. The commission’s report cites a 25-year active mine life as an illustrative example, he noted.
“We believe Cobre Panama likely needs to run for decades to satisfy these objectives,” Murphy said in a note. “Risks are elevated but mutually agreeable solutions that preserve value remain possible.”
The document offers a potential route through the economic, legal and environmental problems surrounding Cobre Panama: generate revenue from renewed operations to finance a controlled shutdown rather than leave Panama responsible for the cost. The mine produced about 1.5% of global copper before mining stopped and was one of the country’s largest private investments.
Panama’s Supreme Court ruled in 2023 that First Quantum Minerals’ contract to operate Cobre Panama, the only mining operation in the Central American country, was unconstitutional. Challenges against the contract piled up in court following public protests against the deal signed that year by the government and First Quantum’s local subsidiary, Minera Panama.
Murphy highlighted a potentially important distinction in the commission’s report: the 2023 court decision declared the mining contract unconstitutional but, according to the report, did not prohibit mining activity itself. That could leave room for the government and First Quantum to negotiate a new legal framework for operations.
Any agreement should prevent an extension of the mine’s operating period and resolve outstanding international arbitration proceedings, according to the committee. Mulino has not made a final decision on the mine’s future.
Resolving those proceedings is central to the commission’s recommendations, Murphy said. Claimants are seeking a combined $27 billion through arbitration, while the proposed framework would establish conditions for a restart capable of financing what the commission calls an “orderly, self-funded closure.”
First Quantum said late on Wednesday it would engage “constructively and in good faith” with Panama on a new legal framework for Cobre Panama that is fair, transparent and consistent with the country’s Constitution and laws.
The miner also noted that the commission makes termination of the pending international arbitrations a mandatory condition of any agreement.
Eight guiding principles
The commission laid out eight principles for any new arrangement. It said Panama, as owner of the mineral deposit, should act as more than a state collecting royalties from a mining concession. The government should independently verify financial flows from the operation rather than rely solely on figures reported by the operator, while exercising effective oversight and requiring transparency over both the mine and the use of revenue it generates.
The framework also calls for a definitive closure date with no renewal or extension, prohibits further expansion of the mine site and requires operations to adapt to a progressive shutdown. A clear mechanism would also have to be established to restore and rehabilitate the site, while the use of mining revenues would be subject to transparent mechanisms open to public scrutiny.
“A closure isn’t done in one year, nor in five years,” Commerce and Industries Minister Julio Moltó said in a press conference.
Moltó said the committee’s proposals were based on visits to communities surrounding the mine rather than assessments conducted solely from government offices. He and his team toured Donoso, Omar Torrijos Herrera and La Pintada, where they met mine workers, local authorities and suppliers before presenting their findings as part of the government’s review of Cobre Panama’s future.
First Quantum noted that a sustainable path forward should provide long-term stability and tangible economic benefits for Panama through employment, workforce development, local procurement, community investment and broader economic contributions.
Closure costs
Economy and Finance Minister Felipe Chapman backed an orderly closure while arguing that Panama should not bear its financial cost. The abrupt shutdown inflicted a substantial economic blow to the nation, he said, eliminating thousands of direct and indirect jobs while cutting government tax and royalty revenue.
The recommendation is in line with President Mulino’s previous statements framing a mine reactivation as an “open to close” plan. The giant Cobre Panama mine, which produced as much as 1.5% of global copper before mining stopped in 2023, accounted for about 5% of Panama’s gross domestic product that year, according to First Quantum.
First Quantum shares plunged as much as 36% in early trading in Toronto as the market reacted to the government’s framing of renewed operations as a mechanism for eventually shutting Cobre Panama. They were last changing hands at C$31.1 apiece, leaving the miner with a market value of C$25.9 billion ($18.2 billion).
Murphy said investors may be putting too much weight on the closure language and not enough on the potential duration and economics of renewed operations.
“The immediate market response to this report has been to focus on the risk of closure,” Murphy said. “However, we believe the full report details offer a more promising frame of reference and believe a mutually agreeable negotiated outcome is possible that would preserve substantial asset value for First Quantum and satisfy all of Panama’s objectives.”
What comes next
The commission’s deliberations follow months of study into the consequences of shutting one of Panama’s largest private investments. A government study published in September found the closure eliminated close to 36,000 jobs and reduced taxes and royalties flowing to the state by nearly $1.4 billion.
Environment Minister Juan Carlos Navarro argued the mine should never have been built and characterized the problem of closing it as one inherited from the previous administration.
Cobre Panama was First Quantum’s largest revenue generator before its shutdown, accounting for about 40% of company revenue. Its closure followed nationwide protests over environmental concerns and the terms of the mining concession.
First Quantum resumed processing in July previously mined stockpiled ore with government authorization, an activity that does not amount to reopening the mine for new extraction. The company restarted one of three milling circuits during the second quarter and continues to forecast production of 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes of copper from stockpiles this year.
The stockpile program forms part of the government-approved preservation and safe-management plan. Panamanian authorities have said processing the material can reduce environmental risks associated with leaving mineralized ore exposed to rainfall.
President Mulino must now determine whether negotiations with First Quantum can produce an arrangement that addresses the commission’s recommendations while generating enough economic value to cover a permanent closure plan.
First Quantum said it is awaiting guidance from Panama’s government on the next steps for negotiations following the commission’s recommendations.
Murphy’s reading of the report suggests that could mean years or even decades of renewed mining before closure, provided First Quantum and Panama can settle the legal disputes and agree on terms that meet the government’s economic and environmental objectives.
https://www.mining.com/panama-commission-urges-orderly-closure-of-first-quantums-cobre-mine/
ArcelorMittal Nears Final Decision on $961 Million Pecem Expansion in Brazil
ArcelorMittal intends to reach a final investment decision before the end of the year on expanding its Pecem facility in Brazil, a project valued at 5 billion reais, or 961 million dollars, according to Bloomberg, which cited comments from Jorge Oliveira, the head of the company's Brazilian unit.
The plan centers on adding a hot-rolled coil production line in the north-eastern state of Ceara with a capacity of 1.5 million tonnes per year. Oliveira indicated that US tariffs on steel imports have pushed the company to look for new outlets for slabs made in Brazil, making domestic processing of semi-finished output into higher value-added goods more attractive.
ArcelorMittal had earlier disclosed comparable investments at its Tubarao plant in southern Brazil, covering a cold-rolling mill and a continuous coating line, as part of a broader effort to increase downstream processing in the region.
Oliveira also stressed the need for prudence, noting that domestic producers remain under pressure from low-priced Chinese imports and are seeking stronger protective measures. Imports represent roughly 18 per cent of the Brazilian steel market, and the project would require that share to decline to no less than 12 per cent.
Because of US tariff restrictions, ArcelorMittal has already shifted some slab shipments away from the US toward Europe. Exports to European countries over the first eight months amounted to 1.04 million tonnes, nearly matching the volume for all of 2025. Shipments of Brazilian slabs to the US for January through August 2026 came to 1.77 million tonnes.
Separately, GMK Center reported that ArcelorMittal has temporarily halted part of its long products output in Gijon, Spain, starting 28 September because of weak demand, especially for wire rod. The stoppage is set to run through 3 October and is intended to align production with demand that has not yet recovered after new EU safeguard measures on steel took effect on 1 July. The company's order book is currently insufficient.
China’s major steelmakers reduced crude steel and pig iron output in mid-September, but a weaker-than-expected seasonal demand recovery pushed finished steel inventories to their highest level in over a year, raising fresh concerns about further stock accumulation during the upcoming National Day holiday.
Data released by China Iron and Steel Association late Sept. 24 showed that daily pig iron and crude steel output at CISA member mills averaged 1.77 million metric tons and 1.922 million mt, respectively, over Sept. 11-20, down 1.4% and 0.1% from early September. The figures were also 7.4% and 7.3% lower than a year earlier, respectively.
As a result, average daily pig iron and crude steel production over Sept. 1-20 stood at 1.783 million mt and 1.923 million mt, down 1.5% and 0.8% from August averages, and 6.3% and 7.6% lower year on year.
Despite the production cuts, finished steel inventories held by mills monitored by CISA reached 17.08 million mt as of Sept. 20, up 5.1% from the end of August and 11.7% higher than a year earlier.
Several mill sources attributed the inventory build to a weaker-than-expected seasonal recovery in steel demand during September, traditionally a peak consumption period in China.
“The seasonal demand improvement in September has been subdued this year,” a mill source said. “Although steelmakers have reduced output more or less, as domestic steel demand remained under pressure while soaring coking coal and coke prices continued to squeeze steelmakers’ margins, the overall scale of the output reductions remains relatively limited, providing only modest support to steel prices.”
A second mill source expected steel inventories to continue rising in early October as trading activity slows during China’s week-long National Day holiday from Oct. 1-7, which could exert downward pressure on the market after the holiday.
Two other mill sources said domestic end-user demand for both hot-rolled coil and rebar in September was weaker than a year earlier. They added that, with no significant economic stimulus measures expected during the remainder of 2026, steel consumption was unlikely to see a meaningful recovery in October.
However, some mill sources and traders said China’s steel exports remain robust and are providing a cushion for the domestic market, which should limit the downside for steel prices in October.
These sources said a key risk to monitor in October would be developments in the coking coal market. If coal supply improves marginally and its prices retreat, steel prices could be pressured downwards amid weak demand fundamentals.
The Platts-assessed domestic HRC and rebar prices were at Yuan 3,320/mt ($495/mt) and Yuan 3,090/mt, respectively, on Sept. 24, down Yuan 80/mt and Yuan 30/mt from end-August. Platts is part of S&P Global Energy.
Source: Platts