Commodity Intelligence Equity Service

Wednesday 28 October 2026
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Century Aluminum & EGA: Mind the Docket, Not the PR

Matt Aboud, Senior Vice President of Strategy at Century Aluminum, estimated that civil works on the Oklahoma Primary Aluminum (OPA) smelter would begin in Q2 2027.

OPA is a joint venture between Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) and Century Aluminum.

The company plans to build a $4 billion primary aluminium facility in the Tulsa Port of Inola, making it the first primary aluminium smelter to be built in the US in nearly 50 years.

Once fully operational, the plant is expected to produce 750,000 tonnes of aluminium annually.

When asked why now was the right time to begin the project, Aboud noted that while the ideal time was “long ago” past economic conditions in the industry had delayed launching a new smelter.

He said: “We've had a really sad 20 years as our industry has eroded to the point where it's almost near extinction. The market has always been here. The challenge has been keeping our existing fleet of smelters alive, and that's been under attack from cheap imports, mostly from China, as well as increasing energy prices and a declining workforce.

“The reality is that we need a continuous supply of this material. We need it for critical industries like automobiles, aircraft, and national defence.”

More recently, however, the project has run into local delays due to a vote by the Inola Town Council to extend its suspension on primary aluminium smelting until April 7, 2027.

The decision replaced a previous 60-day moratorium which was set to expire on September 28.

In addition, the council voted to place a citizen-led petition on the April 7 ballot that would establish a permanent, town-wide ban on aluminium production.

This petition, along with a separate lawsuit filed by the Oklahoma Attorney General’s Office, is currently under challenge in District Court.

On how these local developments had affected the project’s deadlines, Aboud said: “We're hoping to get to the point where we can reach the next phase of our project, which is kind of a go- or no-go decision by the end of the year.”

He continued that OPA hoped to have a ceremonial groundbreaking soon, but the company was unable to begin construction until its environmental permits had been approved.

“We expect that to be completed by early Q2 2027, and then the actual groundbreaking and the civil work phase will begin,” he said, adding that OPA was still aiming to produce its first hot metal by the end of the decade. “We're saying mid to third quarter 2030, so from the date of construction, it's a little over a three-year buildout — about 42 months.”

The full article on the project will be available the November/December issue of Aluminium International Today.


https://aluminiumtoday.com/news/oklahoma-smelter-construction-targeted-for-2027

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Macro

Critical Minerals Stocks Rally as Sector Bid Broadens: United States Antimony and USA Rare Earth Jump 11%, Critical Metals Climbs 8%

Quick Read

  • United States Antimony (UAMY) and USA Rare Earth (USAR) each surge 11% as a broad sector bid lifts critical minerals stocks across antimony, magnets, and Greenland rare earths.
  • VanEck's rare earth ETF (REMX) jumps 4%, outpacing the S&P 500's 0.6% gain and signaling sector-wide momentum beyond individual names.
  • UAMY's Nolan Creek property holds $314 million in estimated resources, but mining costs and a tentative year-end start date leave the figure uncertain.

Buying in critical minerals stocks is spreading across the group, lifting an antimony producer, a domestic rare earth magnet builder and a Greenland-focused developer together. United States Antimony (NYSE:UAMY) stock is at $3.17, up 11% early in the session, a move that puts the antimony producer at the front of the sector rally.


jsjgeology / Flickr

Likewise, USA Rare Earth (NASDAQ:USAR) stock is at $9.89, up 11%, matching the antimony producer's gain. Critical Metals (NASDAQ:CRML) stock is at $6.91, up 8%, a smaller advance that still keeps the Greenland developer in step with the leaders.

Strength in the group also shows up in the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF (NYSEARCA:REMX), which is up 4%. Against that, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 0.6%, leaving the rare earth fund well ahead of the overall market.

Nolan Creek Report and European Lithium Deal Sharpen Two Stories

United States Antimony announced a new technical report in the prior session on its wholly owned Nolan Creek gold and antimony property in northern Alaska, valuing the site's measured and indicated resources at more than $314 million. That report gives the antimony producer a fresh asset story to pair with the sector bid.

Critical Metals announced that its acquisition of European Lithium has become legally effective. Holders of European Lithium stock will receive new Critical Metals shares, which are expected to begin trading on Nasdaq next month. The broader move still fits a group-wide rally.


https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/critical-minerals-stocks-rally-sector-154933314.html

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South Korean Shares End Over 3% Higher on US Rally, Strong GDP

* KOSPI rises, foreigners net buyers

* Korean won strengthens against dollar

* South Korea benchmark bond yield falls

SEOUL, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Round-up of South Korean financial markets:

** South Korean shares closed more than 3% higher on Tuesday, as chipmakers jumped on a rally in US AI stocks and robust domestic GDP data.

** The benchmark KOSPI closed up 168.87 points, or 3.09%, at 5,638.34, after rising as much as 4.9% during the session.

** US stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising more than 2%, as Anthropic's IPO filing helped boost sentiment in AI-related stocks.

** South Korea's economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter as a global AI chip boom boosted exports and investments, advance central bank estimates showed.

** "Korea's GDP data came in higher than expected. Markets will resolve their worries (about the sustainability of AI investment) by checking actual figures as exports and corporate earnings continue to come in as a surprise," said Seo Sang-young, an analyst at Samsung Securities.

** Chipmaker Samsung Electronics rose 4.23%, while peer SK Hynix gained 5.18%.

** Among other index heavyweights, battery maker LG Energy Solution climbed 2.00%, while Hyundai Motor and sister automaker Kia Corp were up 0.87% and 1.33%, respectively.

** Steelmaker POSCO Holdings added 2.41%, while drugmaker Samsung BioLogics fell 5.37%.

** Of the total 915 traded issues, 595 shares advanced, while 275 declined.

** Foreigners were net buyers of shares worth 593.0 billion won ($447.33 million).

** The won was quoted at 1,323.7 per dollar on the onshore settlement platform, 0.17% higher than its previous close at 1,326.0.

** In money and debt markets, December futures on three-year treasury bonds gained 0.11 point to 103.36.

** The most liquid three-year Korean treasury bond yield fell by 3.2 basis points to 3.756%, while the benchmark 10-year yield fell by 4.0 basis points to 4.035%.

($1 = 1,325.6500 won)


https://www.livemint.com/market/south-korean-shares-end-over-3-higher-on-us-rally-strong-gdp-11793084466066.html

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To The UK Prime Minister Ahead of The Budget


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Oil and Gas

US DOE Releases 400,000 Barrels from SPR for Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery

US Energy Department Releases Crude from Strategic Reserve for Louisiana Refinery

The US Department of Energy has issued an exchange of up to 400,000 barrels of crude oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to ENGINE. The department said the move responds to a temporary crude oil supply disruption affecting the Phillips 66 Lake Charles Refinery in Louisiana.

The crude will originate from the reserve's West Hackberry site in Louisiana and is available for immediate delivery, the department said, without specifying the cause of the disruption. The exchange addresses a local refinery bottleneck ahead of the US mid-term elections rather than broader global supply deficits, the report indicated.

Under the terms of the exchange, all borrowed crude oil will be returned with additional premium barrels, the department said.

Separately, the department continues to roll out crude oil from its 172 million-barrel contribution to the International Energy Agency's coordinated 400 million-barrel release by 32 member countries, aimed at stabilising global oil supplies amid the Middle East conflict.

In September, the department issued an exchange of up to 40 million barrels of crude oil from its Big Hill and Bryan Mound sites to oil companies including BP and ExxonMobil.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to 282.7 million barrels in the week ending 16 October, its lowest level since 1982, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That is down from 283 million barrels the prior week and from 407 million barrels a year earlier.

The reserve fell below 300 million barrels in early August for the first time since 1983 and has hit a new low every week since.


https://www.indexbox.io/blog/us-energy-department-releases-crude-from-strategic-reserve-for-louisiana-refinery/

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Slovakia to Continue Buying Russian Gas and Nuclear Fuel

Slovakia will continue to buy natural gas from Russia as long as this is allowed by European Union law. Bratislava also intends to maintain supplies of Russian nuclear fuel, Deputy Economy Minister Vladimir Šimonjak told the Izvestia newspaper.

“We respect all restrictions that arise from EU law. As long as there is a legal possibility to buy Russian gas, we will be happy to continue buying it. As for the further future, this is a matter of negotiations“, Šimonjak said.

According to him, the Slovak government is also defending its interests within the European Union. “We plan to continue buying nuclear fuel as well. The existing partnership is long-term and, in my opinion, is being implemented reliably“, the deputy minister added.

Slovakia and Russia resume energy talks

The statement was made after the meeting of the Russian-Slovak intergovernmental commission in Moscow on October 26. The meeting was the first in this format since the start of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine. The main topics were energy, oil supplies, natural gas and civil nuclear energy.

The Slovak delegation was led by Minister of Foreign and European Affairs Juraj Blanar. It was also attended by Vladimir Šimonjak and representatives of the state gas company SPP and the company JAVYS. The next meeting of the commission is scheduled to be held in Slovakia in 2027.

Bratislava challenges European plan for Russian gas

Slovakia is among the EU countries that oppose the gradual cessation of imports of Russian natural gas. European rules provide for a gradual cessation of these supplies, and the Slovak government is challenging the European Commission's decision in court.

Blanar said that the country has a contract with „Gazprom“ through an SPP, which is in force until 2034 and includes „take or pay“ clauses. According to him, a possible termination of the contract could expose Slovakia to financial claims of over 10 billion euros, and if the amount is further increased, the arbitration award could reach 16 billion euros.

At the same time, Bratislava is also preparing alternative supplies. Economy Minister Denisa Sakova said in October that the country was planning a contract for about 1 billion cubic meters of gas per year for a period of five to seven years, with suppliers under discussion including Azerbaijan, Algeria and the United States.

Sources: 1prime.ru, tasr.sk, enrsi.stvr.sk


https://fakti.bg/en/world/1094260-slovakia-shte-prodalji-da-kupuva-ruski-gaz-i-adreno-gorivo

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The Diesel Crisis Is Here To Stay

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Oct 27, 2026, 2:00 PM CDT

  • The global diesel shortage is expected to persist well into 2027, as damaged Middle Eastern and Russian refineries continue to constrain fuel supplies.
  • Trump's Russian diesel deal offers little relief, with initial shipments covering less than one-tenth of U.S. daily diesel consumption.
  • Diesel prices could remain above $6 per gallon in the U.S., with winter demand and deferred refinery maintenance threatening further supply disruptions.

The diesel crunch is set to persist well into 2027 as supply remains limited by the Middle East conflict and the damaged Russian refineries, analysts say.

Attempts at transient small supply-side solutions like the Trump-Putin diesel deal are not expected to move the needle in the very tight global market.

Until refineries in the Middle East, damaged by Iranian strikes, return to full operations, oil product flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, and Russia’s diesel exports rebound, the world’s supply of diesel will remain below 2025 levels.

Supply Crunch 

The rest of the world, including the United States, is producing at full capacity, but it is unable to fully offset the lost supply. Refineries outside the Middle East and Russia have deferred maintenance to produce as much diesel as they can over the past few months. But they cannot delay scheduled maintenance indefinitely because they risk malfunctions and unplanned shutdowns, which would make the supply situation even worse.

Flows of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz may have recovered to nearly pre-war levels, according to many ship-tracking services, but fuel exports remain limited and are more dangerous to ship out of the Persian Gulf because cargoes are more flammable in case of a strike on a vessel. Fuels are also typically being shipped on smaller tankers.

Shipping is not the only – although it’s the biggest – issue for the Middle East’s oil supply. Refineries including Bapco in Bahrain and Jizan in Saudi Arabia were hit by Iranian strikes in the early weeks of the war. Bapco is now back to three-quarters of full capacity, but Saudi Aramco’s 400,000-barrel-per-day Jizan refinery, a major refining hub on the Red Sea, is still shut following multiple hits over the past few months.

Adding to the limited fuel exports out of the Middle East is the crash in Russian diesel exports as half of Russia’s refineries have been offline for months, due to Ukrainian drone hits, prompting a domestic fuel crisis and a ban on diesel exports.

This ban was partially lifted earlier this month when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a deal with Putin for Russia to supply diesel to the U.S. The first tanker shipping about 40,000 metric tons, or about 300,000 barrels, of ultra-low sulfur diesel (ULSD) out of Russia to the U.S. departed from the Russian Baltic Sea port of Primorsk last week.

“On November 7, the first vessel, carrying a measly 300,000 barrels, less than a tenth of what the US consumes every day, should arrive in New York,” Robin Mills, chief executive of energy advisory firm Qamar Energy, wrote in The National.

No Quick Fix

Analysts acknowledge that the ‘Russian diesel deal’ would have negligible effects on global diesel supply and prices, and certainly not ahead of the U.S. midterm elections on November 3.

There aren’t immediate supply-side solutions significant enough to ease the upward pressure on diesel prices as winter approaches and heating oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere will jump, especially in the United States.

According to Qamar Energy’s Mills, “the strategic choice is to save on consumption, whenever and wherever possible.”

These could include heavy-duty vehicles running on natural gas, public transportation buses on gas or battery-electric power, and a shift toward passenger electric vehicles.

The record-high gasoline and diesel prices have accelerated Europe’s shift toward EVs in a significant push away from conventional cars that lawmakers were trying to speed up for years with regulation.

But all of the above demand-side savings on diesel consumption are no immediate solutions to the global diesel crunch.

Until fuel flows from the Middle East and Russia recover to some adequate levels, the risk to prices is tilted to the upside in the near term.

Global fuel markets are set to remain tight until at least the middle of next year as the second quarter of 2027 will see unusually high planned maintenance that refiners have deferred from this year, Morgan Stanley said last week.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Diesel-Crisis-Is-Here-To-Stay.html

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Agriculture

Weaker Brazilian Real Poses Risks to US Soybean Exports

доллар

U.S. soybean futures fell on October 26 amid a sharp weakening of the Brazilian real following Brazil’s presidential election. A weaker Brazilian currency could improve the price competitiveness of Brazilian soybeans on the global market and increase pressure on U.S. exporters.

According to AgroLatam, January soybean futures fell 22.75 cents to $12.4575 per bushel in early Chicago trading. The reelection of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was accompanied by a sharp decline in the real, the publication reported. This could give Brazilian suppliers greater flexibility in pricing their exports in U.S. dollars.

The weaker real poses additional risks for U.S. soybean producers, as importers may favor lower-priced offers from Brazil. Increased competition could affect U.S. cash prices and farm profitability, while growers continue to face production, financing and crop storage costs.

Price declines also extended to other grains. December corn futures in Chicago fell 4.25 cents to $4.5175 per bushel, while December wheat futures declined 5.25 cents to $6.1975 per bushel. Kansas City wheat futures lost 2.75 cents, while Minneapolis wheat futures fell 3 cents per bushel.

The further impact of currency fluctuations on the soybean market will depend on how much Brazil’s pricing advantage translates into actual sales volumes. U.S. soybean export sales data and Brazilian shipment figures will be key indicators in the coming weeks.


https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/weaker-brazilian-real-poses-risks-to-us-soybean-exports/

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Base Metals

DRC Suspends Artisanal Mining Regulator Amid Crackdown on Illegal Sites

THE Democratic Republic of Congo has suspended the head of its artisanal mining regulator as authorities intensify a crackdown on illegal operations on copper and cobalt concessions, Bloomberg reported.

Mines Minister Louis Watum removed Jean-Paul Kapongo Kadiobo as director general of SAEMAPE on October 21, saying he had failed to prevent illicit artisanal mining on permits held by other companies.

SAEMAPE (Service d’Assistance et d’Encadrement de l’Exploitation Minière Artisanale et à Petite Échelle) is the government agency responsible for supervising and supporting artisanal and small-scale mining in the DRC.

The move follows the detention of about 300 Chinese nationals in Congo’s copper belt, mainly around Kolwezi, as part of a broader operation against unauthorised mining.

SAEMAPE oversees and seeks to formalise artisanal and small-scale mining in Congo, the world’s second-largest copper producer and biggest source of cobalt. The agency’s provincial head in Lualaba, where Kolwezi is located, was also suspended, according to local media.

Watum’s order accused Kapongo Kadiobo of improperly deploying SAEMAPE tax collectors at sites where artisanal miners were operating without permission.

Foreign groups including CMOC, Glencore and Zijin account for much of Congo’s industrial copper and cobalt output, while artisanal mining supports hundreds of thousands of people.

Authorities have sent a multi-agency commission to Kolwezi to demilitarise mining sites, audit processing plants and move artisanal miners to authorised areas.

Congo also agreed last week to relocate more than 20,000 miners from Kamilombe, a site on a Gecamines licence, to a designated artisanal mining zone.


https://miningmx.com/2026-10-27-congo-ousts-artisanal-mining-regulator-amid-crackdown/

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Antofagasta Upgraded to 'Hold' by Deutsche Bank after Guidance Reset

Antofagasta upgraded to 'hold' by Deutsche Bank after guidance reset

Antofagasta upgraded to 'hold' by Deutsche Bank after guidance reset Proactive uses images sourced from Shutterstock

Deutsche Bank has upgraded Antofagasta PLC (LSE:ANTO), the FTSE 100 copper miner, to 'hold' from 'sell' after a reset of production guidance improved the broker's assessment of the company's outlook.

Analyst Liam Fitzpatrick cut his price target to 3,300p from 3,600p following the miner's third-quarter production report, against a latest closing share price of 3,174p.

The shares have underperformed copper and listed mining peers by around 5% to 15% over the past month, creating scope for a reassessment as investors absorb the revised targets.

Fitzpatrick views the updated production guidance as more realistic and achievable, addressing a persistent weakness in the company's operational track record.

Antofagasta has missed its production guidance every year since 2021, undermining investor confidence in its ability to deliver against published targets.

Production has averaged around 4% below the midpoint of guidance ranges and approximately 1% below their lower limits, highlighting the scale of the forecasting challenge.

The broker believes the 2027 guidance has now been reset appropriately, with expected copper production of 630,000 to 690,000 tonnes.

Deutsche Bank forecasts output of 657,000 tonnes, implying only modest year-on-year growth despite expectations of higher grades and greater throughput at Los Pelambres, one of Antofagasta's key operations.

The revised targets therefore provide a more credible basis for assessing future production, although the lower price target reflects the broker's more cautious view of the company's near-term prospects.

At 3,174p, the shares trade around 4% below Deutsche Bank's new 3,300p target, compared with a potential upside of approximately 13% under its previous valuation.

The upgrade reflects an improvement in the balance between operational delivery and expectations rather than a stronger production outlook, with execution against the revised guidance remaining central to the investment case.


https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/antofagasta-upgraded-hold-deutsche-bank-133000179.html

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FCX Q3 Earnings Beat Estimates on Strong Copper Pricing

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. FCX reported adjusted earnings of 88 cents per share for the third quarter of 2026, up 76% from 50 cents a year earlier. The figure topped the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 80 cents by 10%.

Revenues rose 8.2% year over year to $7.55 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $7.09 billion by 6.5%. Higher realized copper and molybdenum prices supported results despite lower copper and gold sales volumes.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Quote

FCX's Metal Sales Reflect Grasberg Ramp-Up

Consolidated copper production declined 8.8% year over year to 832 million pounds.

Copper sales dropped 23.3% to 749 million pounds, largely reflecting lower operating rates at PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) during the ramp-up of the Grasberg Block Cave underground mine and shipment timing.

Gold sales plunged 68.8% to 105,000 ounces from 336,000 ounces a year ago. Around 60,000 ounces of refined gold sales in Indonesia shifted from the third to the fourth quarter. Molybdenum sales increased 15.8% to 22 million pounds.

Consolidated unit net cash costs increased 47.9% to $2.07 per pound of copper from $1.40 in the year-ago quarter. The increase reflected lower copper and gold volumes in Indonesia and higher production costs, including energy and other consumables. The figure was above our estimate of $2.01 per pound.

The average realized copper price climbed 39.7% year over year to $6.54 per pound from $4.68. The figure was above our estimate of $6.12 per pound. The average realized gold price increased 20.7% to $4,273 per ounce. The figure fell behind our estimate of $4,508. The molybdenum price rose 34.9% to $32.46 per pound. It exceeded our estimate of $26.52.

FCX's Cash Flow and Balance Sheet

Operating cash flow totaled $1.98 billion, up 17.3% year over year from $1.69 billion. Capital expenditures increased to $1.16 billion from $1.06 billion, including expenditures on major mining projects.

Cash and cash equivalents stood at $4.34 billion at September-end, compared with $4.32 billion a year earlier. Total debt was $9.4 billion versus $9.3 billion. Excluding debt related to PTFI's downstream facilities, net debt was $1.83 billion. Freeport repurchased $102 million of common shares during the quarter.

Freeport's Outlook

For 2026, consolidated sales are projected at roughly 3 billion pounds of copper, 649,000 ounces of gold and 93 million pounds of molybdenum. Fourth-quarter sales are expected to reach 875 million pounds of copper, 300,000 ounces of gold and 22 million pounds of molybdenum.


https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/fcx-q3-earnings-beat-estimates-161400506.html

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