Currie Calls Brent 'Vibe Contract' Out of Step with Energy
by Bloomberg | M.Gindis, A.Hordern, J.Ferro | Friday, October 16, 2026 | 4:31 AM EST
The world’s most important oil benchmark has become little more than a “vibe contract,” blunting its usefulness as a tool to manage price volatility, according to Wall Street veteran Jeff Currie.
“Everything associated with energy is going up but Brent,” Currie said Thursday in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “It is not connected to the real world anymore.”
Brent’s roughly $106-a-barrel trade belies the scale of supply threats spanning the Strait of Hormuz to the Black Sea, according to Currie, founder and chief executive officer of investment firm Real Macro. Threats have escalated recently, with tanker attacks mounting around Hormuz and Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia intensifying. Freight markets have surged alongside crude.
As the global backdrop deteriorates, Brent’s disconnect from physical markets is creating “unpriceable risk,” Currie said, deterring hedgers from using the contract to protect themselves at a juncture when they need it most.
“Those futures markets are absolutely critical to the function of an industry in modern society,” Currie said. “You take away that pricing, you don’t get adequate investment, you don’t get adequate behavioral changes.”
The disconnect between paper and physical markets has frustrated traders since the Middle East conflict began, when crude struggled to top $100 despite historic supply shortages. In contrast, Dated Brent, the most important physical oil benchmark, has surged to near $130 a barrel. That dissonance has contributed to traders fleeing the market, with Brent open interest earlier this month hitting its lowest since March 2025 even as oil dominates headlines.
A gap between futures and spot prices predates the war, as the two markets price crude at different points in time. The conflict has made that divergence more pronounced.
Currie attributes this partly to Brent’s contract structure, which allows traders to settle in cash rather than exchange physical barrels, unlike its US counterpart, West Texas Intermediate, which requires physical delivery.
A hit to Brent’s integrity undermines the market’s ability to anticipate supply shocks with “profound consequences for the market and the rest of the world,” Currie said. He also downplayed the Trump administration’s recent efforts to rein in fuel prices — including a deal with Russia to release several million barrels of diesel onto global markets — and sees risks as “strictly to the upside” ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms.
“Market integrity is sacrosanct,” Currie said. “You don’t mess with it.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that no sanctions on Russia had been lifted, defending President Donald Trump’s decision to waive new punitive measures amid the war in Ukraine. Anadolu Agency reported the remarks.
“No sanctions were lifted on Friday,” Bessent told “NBC News”, adding that the administration had been given 60 days to examine the situation.
“The only thing that has been lifted is the diesel embargo,” he said, maintaining that the US had not rolled back its existing sanctions.
Bessent said Trump had taken a tough stance towards Moscow, pointing to sanctions imposed on Russia’s two largest energy companies, “Rosneft” and “Lukoil”. He called the measures “a catastrophic blow to the Russian energy industry”.
His comments followed a warning from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Washington siding with Russian President Vladimir Putin would be a “historic mistake”. Zelenskyy also said he hoped Trump would reconsider his decisions.
“We want to trust him,” Zelenskyy told “NBC News” earlier. He warned that Ukraine could not withstand a situation in which Washington and Moscow aligned against Kyiv.
Zelenskyy said Ukraine had experienced a temporary interruption in US intelligence sharing and restrictions on satellite communications that are critical to its defence against Russian attacks.
Bessent rejected Zelenskyy’s allegation that the Trump administration was responsible for the disruptions, saying it was “very reckless for President Zelensky to make such a charge”.
He also denied that Washington was siding with Moscow, citing US intelligence support, access to “Starlink” and arrangements allowing NATO members to purchase American weapons for Ukraine.
Defending the administration’s approach, Bessent criticised European countries for continuing to buy Russian energy while providing financial support to Moscow.
“The Europeans have given Russia and Vladimir Putin more money than they’ve given the Ukrainians,” he said.
https://operativmm.az/en/post/bessent-says-no-russian-sanctions-were-lifted-after-trump-waiver/83083
The US and Israel know that the main hurdle to keeping the lid on the war with Iran is the price of oil, and it will keep rising if no solution can be found for Hormuz and the Houthis.
High oil prices are going to be an issue over the next few weeks if they continue to stay above $100 a barrel. That is a clear challenge for the United States and also potentially for Israel in terms of keeping a lid on a renewed conflict with Iran prior to the elections in both countries.
It is no secret that the looming elections have tended to change dynamics, estimations, and assessments about whether the conflict could start again.
The high oil prices come during a decline in stock prices on Wall Street. This is amid concerns about AI companies and energy prices. That could tend to be a kind of triple threat affecting the US, and thus also affecting Israel.
There has been a lot of messaging about how the Strait of Hormuz is open and the availability of alternative energy sources, but the question is whether or not the global market will accept these assertions.
Recent videos show ships sinking in the Strait of Hormuz and all sorts of containers floating away as ships are in distress. This is not something that will boost global optimism regarding supply chains, and it always remains a question whether enough ships are transporting energy supplies.
Flames burn at a facility belonging to Saudi oil giant Aramco south of Riyadh on October 3, 2026. (credit: AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)
What will the Houthis do?
It also leads to questions about what the Houthis might do. The Houthis could try to threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. They could also encourage other Iranian proxies, such as those in Iraq, to continue attacks on Saudi oil and gas energy infrastructure.
A mysterious explosion in Iraq on Saturday appears to have struck an Iranian proxy group. All this could continue to disrupt global trade.
When there are attacks on pipelines or transit points in Saudi Arabia, for instance, it takes weeks to repair them. That creates disruption, and all those disruptions add up to the feeling in the global market that there is too much uncertainty.
This kind of uncertainty will affect the US. It already appears to be affecting US policy regarding the Ukraine war and Russia, and this is the kind of thing that can lead to escalation in the Middle East or miscalculations in which something happens again with Iran.
Iran continues to be blockaded, but it also tends to feel a bit confident about its next steps. Therefore, we are seeing a potential for escalation within the next week or two.
MUMBAI — India has directed oil marketing companies to cut sugar diversion for ethanol production to zero in 2026/27, excluding ethanol made from sugarcane juice, sugar syrup and B-heavy molasses from their latest tender, according to a tender issued last week.
India has relied for years on surplus sugar to meet its ethanol-blending targets, but the exclusion of sugar-based feedstocks underscores the growing tension between cutting oil imports and protecting domestic sugar supplies, as poor rainfall threatens output and pushes prices to record highs.
“The Government of India has issued directions that sugar diversion for ethanol be reduced to zero for ethanol supply year 2026-27,” according to the tender document.
“No offers have been sought for ethanol produced from sugarcane juice, sugar or sugar syrup and B-heavy molasses in this quantity bid tender,” it said.
The oil marketing companies invited bids for 11 billion liters of ethanol for the supply year beginning in November.
The tender allows manufacturers to bid for ethanol made from corn, broken rice and surplus rice procured by the Food Corp. of India, according to the document jointly issued by state-run Indian Oil Corp., Bharat Petroleum Corp. and Hindustan Petroleum Corp.
The world’s biggest sugar consumer has been trying to boost domestic sugar production and bring down record-high prices.
The government made E20 the nationwide mandatory standard earlier this year, to curb pollution and cut oil imports, but some motorists fear the blend could damage older vehicles.
The companies cut the incentive for corn-based ethanol to 2.79 rupees per liter from 5.79 rupees, bringing the procurement price down to 68.86 rupees per liter from 71.86 rupees, according to the tender.
In August, Reuters reported that India was considering restricting the amount of sugarcane used for ethanol in the season beginning October to boost sugar output and try to calm record prices after reduced rainfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka raised concerns about this year’s sugar output. — Reuters
Workers move copper cathode produced outside of Florence, Arizona. The in situ mining operation started production earlier this year, and is among several new copper operations proposed throughout the state amid rising demand for the conductive metal.
Arizona’s copper industry is gearing up for a new wave of mining as rising demand and prices spur plans for new mines and increased production at existing operations.
Copper has long been prized for its high conductivity and relatively low cost. As demand grows from various industries, copper is increasingly referred to as a "critical mineral." S&P Global estimates that worldwide demand could increase 50% by 2040, underscored by surging copper prices.
"I think there's a sense of urgency," said Steve Trussell, executive director of the Arizona Rock Products Association and Arizona Mining Association.
Renewable energy, a global move toward electrification, and the tech industry all rely on copper, which could be a boon for Arizona's mining industry. However, increasing costs, limited smelting and refining capacity and falling ore grades pose difficulties for a metal under pressure.
And some groups are concerned about what a renewed interest in copper could mean for the environment.
Copper, then and now
Copper was a historic economic driver for areas like Bisbee, Globe and Jerome. Arizona has remained one of the country's most productive copper states, producing in 2024 roughly 70% of the nation's supply. The metal earned its spot among the state’s five Cs: copper, cattle, cotton, citrus and climate.
Those five industries have ebbed and flowed over the years. But an electric new era has reinvigorated the copper industry.
New mining operation Florence Copper uses in situ recovery methods, which extracts copper without needing to pull out ore or process it at a smelter. It's one of several new mines planned in Arizona amid skyrocketing copper prices and intense global demand.
In early October, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin traveled to rural Arizona to celebrate the opening of a new copper mine — the first major operation to open in the country since 2008.
Florence Copper is billed as the copper mine of the future, using in situ recovery rather than conventional pit mining. Instead of digging up and processing ore, operators pump a solution underground to suspend, extract and plate copper molecules.
Arizona State Mine Inspector Walter “Les” Presmyk said Florence Copper is among a handful of new mines planned around the state, and is emblematic of a changing technological and economic landscape. Several existing mines are planning to significantly increase their output amid unusually high demand, Presmyk added.
Although domestic production of the metal has slowed over the past decade, from roughly 1.4 million metric tons in 2015 to an estimated 1 million metric tons in 2025, the price recently skyrocketed above $6 per pound. Demand for the metal is already changing Arizona's mining outlook.
“Being able to talk about five brand new large mines coming online in the next few years is unprecedented in my lifetime,” Presmyk, who spent much of his 50-year career in the copper industry, said.
Florence Mayor Keith Eaton said the project has been critical to bring development to the rural town, where the two major employers are the prison system and the county seat. He’s hoping supporting industries will follow, and said the project has already brought a younger workforce to Florence.
“We are not situated on a major railroad. We’re not situated on a major highway interchange. We’re 14 minutes from the I-10, we’re 14 minutes from the 60,” Eaton said. “So we know that, revenue-wise, that we are not going to be a major manufacturer of anything.”
Stuart McDonald, president and CEO of Canada-based Trekor Metals, described the project as a “low-impact, low-cost” alternative to conventional pit mining. The company estimates the project will use almost 80% less water than regular mining practices.
McDonald said in situ recovery has typically been used at “brownfields”, taking a second pass at areas that have been mined before.
The ore body outside Florence is fractured, with the texture of thick gravel. That allows the solution to travel through the gaps and extract the copper molecules completely underground.
The extracted copper is ready to head to manufacturers without additional processing. That means no need to transport copper for costly and energy-intensive smelting, which separates the pure metal from the ore using high heat.
At one point, the majority of the state’s copper was processed using smelting, Presmyk said. But the number of operating smelters in the country has declined over the years, leaving just two, including one in Arizona. That's left some producers reliant on foreign processing.
S&P's 2026 copper survey pointed to smelting and refining gaps as a major risk to the copper industry, along with declining copper concentrations in ore and increasing costs.
Electrowinning, part of the process used at Florence Copper, can bypass some of those concerns.
“Technology is also advancing as well,” McDonald said. “And we’re able to do things at our site in Florence, with in situ mining, that probably weren’t possible 20 or 30 years ago.”
A changing industry
Presmyk remembers when copper was cheap in the early 1980s. While the price of copper skyrocketed earlier this year, it is still competitively priced compared to the precious metals, and more conductive than cheaper aluminum.
https://tucson.com/news/local/business/article_a0c87453-c9fe-4738-b009-6cf40dc4e1aa.html
Vedanta Ltd has invested nearly $600 million to double the annual zinc production capacity of its South African operations to 500,000 tonnes, as the company targets annual production of 3 million tonnes across India and South Africa.
The investment in South Africa's Gamsberg, Vedanta Zinc International’s flagship zinc mine, is part of the company’s broader ambition to increase its zinc production capacity across its Indian and South African businesses.
Vedanta aims to produce 2 million tonnes annually through its subsidiary Hindustan Zinc Ltd and 1 million tonnes through Vedanta Zinc International.
The expansion is part of a ZAR 21 billion (nearly $1.5 billion) investment commitment Vedanta made at the 2018 South Africa Investment Conference. The company described the Gamsberg expansion as one of the largest mining investments in South Africa in the current decade.
The expansion at the second phase of its Gamsberg mine in Northern Cape province was inaugurated by South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and Vedanta director Priya Agarwal-Hebbar on Sunday.
Ramaphosa welcomed the investment and said the South African government would work with Vedanta and other partners to address the company’s requirements.
“We welcome Vedanta’s ambition to establish zinc smelting capacity in the Northern Cape,” he said, adding that the investment had progressed from commitment to construction and production.
The expansion comes as Vedanta seeks to strengthen its position in the global zinc market. Zinc is essential to industrial and infrastructure development, particularly because galvanisation, in which zinc is used, protects steel from corrosion and extends its service life. Zinc is used across construction, automotive and manufacturing industries.
Priya Agarwal-Hebbar said the expansion reflected the company’s commitment to South Africa and its ambition to develop a significant zinc and industrial hub in the region.
From aluminium to fluorite, via lead and zinc metallurgy, right through to telecommunications and green chemistry. There are a number of ongoing disputes affecting Sardinia from south to north.
Industrial Sulcis
On the table is the matter concerning Eurallumina and its €350 million relaunch project. Then there is the freeze on funds and the risk of insolvency due to a lack of funds. The second link in the aluminium supply chain is also grappling with the crisis. This is Sider Alloys, an Italian-Swiss company that took over the Portovesme plant from Alcoa. The actual recovery plan is struggling to get off the ground. A plan worth around 300 million euros is on the horizon. In the metallurgical sector, again within the Portovesme complex, there is also the dispute concerning the subsidiary Glencore Portovesme srl. The lead production line is at a standstill, as is the zinc line, and the lithium programme has not got off the ground.
Ceramics at the terminus
Cermed Ceramiche Mediterranea, a company based in the Medio Campidano area specialising in the production of ceramics, has ceased trading following a court-ordered liquidation ruling. The crisis was triggered by the company – which was established using funds earmarked for the redevelopment of mining sites, and which employed 120 staff directly in Sardinia and around ten in Sassuolo – facing a shortage of gas and high costs for electricity, road transport and shipping due to the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS).
The Fluorsid dispute
The conflict in the Middle East is also having a negative impact on Fluorsid. The chemical company, owned by Giulini (the owner of Cagliari), produces, amongst other things, sulphuric acid and aluminium fluoride at its Sardinian plant in Macchiareddu. These products are used in both the oil and metallurgical sectors for the production of aluminium.
Sanac
Sanac, a company under administration, which used to produce refractory materials for steelworks. The company had been forced to contend with the Ilva crisis. For the Sardinian hub, as well as the other three on the mainland, a process has been initiated in preparation for its sale.
Copper futures climbed toward $6.60 per pound on Monday, recovering from last week’s losses as stronger-than-expected economic data from China, the world’s largest consumer, improved the demand outlook. China’s economy grew 4.5% in the third quarter, accelerating from a three-year low of 4.3% in the second quarter and exceeding forecasts of 4.4%. Industrial production also rose 5.5% year over year in September, up from 5.2% in August and surpassing expectations of 5.4%. Meanwhile, copper prices received additional support from tightening supply as labor strikes and adverse weather disrupted mining operations in Chile, the world’s largest copper producer. On the demand side, the metal continued to benefit from robust growth prospects in data center infrastructure, semiconductor manufacturing, and battery energy storage systems.
BHP Group Limited, operator of the Escondida Mine in Chile, reached a contract agreement with the supervisors' union at the asset on October 14 to avert a strike that could have disrupted operations.
The agreement was approved by union members in a last-minute vote on the morning of October 14, after the union had already called for the beginning of a strike.
The new contract will be valid for 36 months and contains improvements in compensation, benefits and bonuses, according to several outlets.
Industrial Info Resources offers more information on Escondida in its Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Metals & Minerals Plant Database, where subscribers can find details--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--in a detailed plant profile.
In 2017, Union No. 1 at the Escondida Mine went on strike for 44 days, reducing copper output by 214,000 tonnes and causing US$546 million in idle capacity charges.
The Escondida mine is the world's largest copper mine, with output of 1.345 million tonnes in 2025, according to Chile's Copper Commission (Cochilco). Between January and August this year, it produced 797,500 tonnes of copper, an 11.4% yearly decrease.
The production drop is driven by lower feed grades delivered to the mine's concentrators, according to BHP. The company expects to produce between 1 million and 1.1 million tonnes of copper at the asset for the 2027 fiscal year, which extends from July 2026 to June 2027.
The Italian domestic long steel segment has remained largely stable this week, although attempts to raise prices have been observed in exports.
Producers’ price requests have therefore shown limited changes, with rebar prices standing in a range of €480-490/mt ex-works base (€740-750/mt ex-works including regular extras), with the lower end up slightly by €10/mt compared to the levels reported by SteelOrbis last week.
However, with previous orders concluded at €440-460/mt ex-works base (€700-720/mt ex-works including regular extras), the new levels are struggling to gain acceptance. In the meantime, the complex domestic and international scenario has been compounded by increases in fuel and transportation costs. Recently, estimated freight rates by truck from northern to southern Italy have reached €65-70/mt, up by around 10 percent compared to the previous levels. In fact, strikes and transportation blockades in response to high fuel prices are expected from October 16 to October 20, particularly in southern Italy.
In addition, slowing construction activity and high inventory levels are leading to lower demand in the Italian domestic market, and not only in the rebar segment.
At the beginning of this week, a market participant in the wire rod segment stated that he is observing “some tension” due to “rising electricity and transportation costs and stagnant orders”. As for prices, the range for wire rod in the Italian domestic market in October is expected to stand at €675-680/mt for drawing quality and €660-670/mt for mesh quality, both delivered, indicating only very slight changes compared to the previous month.
“Customers are limiting their purchases to immediate requirements, as business activity has declined significantly,” a trader commented.
Italian producers are therefore seeking to ease the pressure in the domestic market by focusing on exports, particularly to the Mediterranean region and eastern Europe. According to reports, the latest Italian rebar export offers to these destinations stand at €590-600/mt FOB, amid increased inquiries from Ukraine. However, the latest confirmed deals appear to have been concluded at around €590/mt FOB or slightly above. The latest wire rod offers have also been issued at the same level, though they have failed to attract interest from end-users. Accordingly, the average Italian wire rod export price may be estimated at around €580/mt FOB.
Author: SteelOrbis Editorial Team
Kumba Iron Ore (ISIN ZAE000085346) was upgraded to Overweight by JPMorgan with a ZAR 300.00 price target on October 14, 2026, according to Yahoo Finance. The call puts the miner's logistics constraints and investment program at the center of the stock story.
Rail capacity sets the operating test
MiningMX reported on October 14, 2026, that CEO Mpumi Zikalala had described rail performance on the Sishen-Saldanha corridor as stable but marked by marginal gains. Kumba's 2026 production forecast stands at 31 million to 33 million tons, while the company is spending ZAR 11.2 billion on an ultra-high dense medium separation project at Sishen, according to MiningMX.
Three dates explain the reset
On October 7, 2026, Kumba's first-half 2026 earnings guidance pointed to basic earnings of ZAR 3.975 billion to ZAR 4.265 billion, versus ZAR 7.112 billion in the comparable period, while basic earnings per share was guided to ZAR 12.41 to ZAR 13.31, versus ZAR 22.17, according to Simply Wall St. On October 14, 2026, the rail update set a 31 million to 33 million ton production range, and JPMorgan's upgrade followed with the ZAR 300.00 target.
What date comes next?
The next substantiated company date is October 20, 2026, when Kumba is listed for a third-quarter production reporting event by MarketScreener. That update will show whether the rail corridor is translating into measurable volume improvement.
Value depends on execution
JPMorgan's upgrade rests on a ZAR 500.0 million net cash position and the possibility of a production recovery, while the first-half guidance shows why execution remains important. The JSE-listed miner's investment program offers a quantified route to processing lower-grade material, but its near-term output still depends on transport reliability.
By Irina Slav - Oct 19, 2026, 4:30 AM CDT
China’s coal production last month fell by 6.8% on the year to a total 385 million tons. The monthly total was, however, an increase on August, Bloomberg reported, citing the country’s statistics agency.
China has been curbing coal production this year on abundant inventories and lower demand from power generators earlier in the year. In September, thermal power generation declined 1.4% year over year. With winter starting, however, the production—and power generation—trend could reverse as demand for heating peaks.
Earlier data showed that China also imported less coal last month, at 43.37 million tons, which was 5.7% lower than the total import volumes for September 2025. Still, like production, September imports were higher than the August total.
Coal prices in the world’s biggest coal consumer, which still relies on the fuel for nearly 50% of its power generation, have rallied by 24% since the middle of July, amid tighter supply and high demand.
China’s spot thermal coal prices have been rising since late spring, when the deadliest mining disaster in 16 years in May prompted authorities to step up safety checks and order suspension of activities in a number of mines in the key coal-producing region of Shanxi.
Globally, meanwhile, coal demand is on the rise as the war premium on liquefied natural gas dampens demand for the cleaner fuel. Last month, the International Energy Agency said it expected demand for coal this year to rise to an all-time high—despite the net-zero push that the IEA is very much in favor of, despite the surge in LNG export and import capacity, and despite the closure of many coal power plants in Europe and North America. Coal-buying is set for an especially strong fourth quarter of the year, as peak demand season begins.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
