Ukraine War, Day 1,365: Trump-Kremlin Plan for Capitulation of Kyiv
Posted by Scott Lucas | Nov 20, 2025 |
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin at a conference in 2017 (EPA)
UPDATE 0812 GMT:
Ukrainian drones have attacked the Ryazan oil refinery in western Russia for the second time in a week, the third time this autumn, and the fifth time since August 2.
Russian and Ukrainian monitoring channels reported the attack. Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov acknowledged, “Falling debris caused a fire at a plant. According to preliminary information, there are no casualties, and material damage is being assessed.”
The refinery is one of the largest in Russia, supplied fuel to the Moscow region. Owned by Rosneft, it processed 13.1 million tons of crude oil in 2024, accounting for 5% of Russia’s total refining capacity.
After an attack last Saturday, the refinery suspended operation because of the loss of its main refining unit.
In the Kursk region in western Russia on Ukraine’s border, more than 16,000 people are without power after a strike on an electrical substation.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: The Trump Administration and the Kremlin have drafted a 28-point plan for Ukraine’s capitulation to Russia’s 46-month full-scale invasion.
The plan has been crafted amid discussions between Donald Trump’s envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, and Vladimir Putin’s senior economic advisor Kiril Dmitriev.
“People with knowledge” said Ukraine would give up the 22% of the Donetsk region which it holds — a Kremlin demand favored by Witkoff but rejected by Trump last month.
The surrender will occur despite warnings to Trump by Ukraine’s European partners that the handover of the fortified area would “open the highway to Kyiv” in any future Russian offensive.
Further aiding any Russian assault, Ukraine will cut the size of its armed forces by half and abandon key categories of weaponry. US military assistance will be rolled back, and Ukraine will not get any long-range weapons. No foreign troops will be allowed on Ukrainian soil.
The sources did not mention any security guarantee to Ukraine against Russian aggression.
The plan also demands the recognition of Russian as an official state language in Ukraine. The local branch of the Russian Orthodox Church will be given formal status.
A source summarized that the proposal amounted to Ukraine giving up its sovereignty. The initiative was a Russian attempt to “play” the Trump Administration, eager to “show progress” on a deal.
One official noted that the plan iss “heavily tilted towards Russia”. Another called it “very comfortable for Putin”.
A “Russian person familiar with the matter” said, “It’s not a plan but a mix of real, practical proposals with good intentions. They acknowledged, “Part of it is absolutely unacceptable for the Ukrainians.”
An Ultimatum to Ukraine?
Witkoff presented the plan this week to Ukraine’s Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, Rustem Umerov, in Miami. The envoy made clear he wanted President Volodymyr Zelensky to accept the terms.
Officials in Kyiv said the plan, closely aligned with the Kremlin’s maximalist demands, is a non-starter without significant changes.
The real estate developer was scheduled to meet Zelensky in Turkey on Wednesday. However, without explanation, he pulled out of the encounter.
The Trump Administration is sending Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and two four-star generals to Kyiv to meet Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials.
Senior US officials said the Pentagon delegation will meet with Russian officials at a later date. They did not explain why Trump’s envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is not included.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio posted on social media:
Russia Murders 26+ Civilians, Injures 115+ Across Ukraine
The existence of the plan was revealed as Russia murdered at least 26 civilians, including three children, and injured 73 in Ternopil in western Ukraine. Missile and drone attacks wounded another 42 elsewhere in the country.
Meeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara, Zelensky posted:
"Since the beginning of this year, we in Ukraine have supported every decisive step and the leadership of [#Trump], every strong and fair proposal aimed at ending this war. And only President Trump and the United States have sufficient power to make this war come to an end."
Zelensky noted Erdoğan’s proposal of formats for negotiations, and emphasized that this “is important for us”.
"But the most important factor for stopping the bloodshed and achieving lasting peace is that we work in close coordination with all partners, and that American leadership remains effective, strong, and brings us closer to a peace that endures and ensures security for the people."
https://eaworldview.com/2025/11/ukraine-war-trump-kremlin-plan-for-capitulation-of-kyiv/
The U.S. stock market is rising on Wednesday, for now at least, ahead of a huge couple of tests for Wall Street.
The S&P 500 added 0.4 per cent after trimming an earlier jump of 1.1 per cent.
It's coming off a four-day losing streak, its longest in nearly three months, and has been shaking recently because of worries that stock prices have shot too high and that the U.S. Federal Reserve may not deliver as many revitalizing cuts to interest rates as expected.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 98 points, or 0.2 per cent, as of 11 a.m. ET, after an earlier gain evaporated. The Nasdaq composite rose 0.8 per cent.
Constellation Energy helped lead the market and rallied 6.1 per cent after the U.S. Department of Energy said it's lending $1 billion US to help restart Constellation's nuclear power plant at Three Mile Island.
Lowe's rose 4.8 per cent after the home-improvement retailer reported a stronger profit for the summer than analysts expected.
They helped offset a 1.5 per cent drop for Target, which reported a stronger profit, but also weaker revenue, for the latest quarter than analysts expected. The retailer hinted that challenges may continue through the critical holiday shopping season.
Nvidia president and CEO Jensen Huang delivers a keynote address during a technology conference at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center in Washington, D.C., on Oct. 28. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
The market's focus, though, remained squarely on Nvidia.
Nvidia reports its earnings for the last quarter after the closing bell. The California company climbed 2.6 per cent to recover some of its loss for the month so far, which topped 10 per cent on Tuesday.
The company, which at one point briefly topped $5 trillion US in value, has become the largest stock on Wall Street. That means its movements carry more weight on the S&P 500 than any other stock, and it can single-handedly steer the index's direction some days.
One way Nvidia can quiet criticism that its stock shot too high, which led to this month's struggles, is to keep delivering bigger profits, because stock prices tend to track profits over the long term.
Nvidia has also become a bellwether for the broader frenzy around artificial intelligence technology, because other companies are using its chips to ramp up their AI efforts.
Those AI-linked stocks, along with Nvidia, have been a major reason the U.S. stock market has been setting records, with the latest for the S&P 500 coming late last month.
Worries have been rising, though, that all the investment may not produce as much profit and productivity for the overall economy, as earlier hoped.
Critics have been suggesting AI's surge is similar to the bubble that enveloped dot-com stocks, which ultimately imploded in 2000 and dragged the S&P 500 down by nearly half.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/stock-markets-nvidia-earnings-9.6984305
At a Glance
When Disruption Hit, AI Made the Difference
2025 tested the maritime domain and redefined the standards for visibility, speed, and resilience.
Traditional systems failed to keep pace. From sudden sanctions and rerouting chaos to flag-switching and dark flows, each new disruption exposed the limitations of static watchlists, manual screenings, and delayed alerts.
But for the organizations powered by Maritime AI™, the story was different.
These teams weren’t relying on a single data source. They were fusing vessel behavior, AIS tracking, and real-time alerts with satellite-powered detections to get the full picture, even when ships went dark or falsified their identities.
Remote sensing played a central role. By layering SAR, EO, and RF detections with AI-based anomaly detection, organizations were able to confirm vessel positions, flag deceptive movements, and track suspicious activity, even when traditional signals were spoofed or offline.
In practice, this meant spotting deceptive shipping practices (DSPs) as they happened, validating threats before exposure, and maintaining momentum even amid sanctions, spoofing, and shifting trade patterns.
The more complex the threat landscape became, the clearer the gap was: static systems created noise. Maritime AI™ delivered clarity.
Quarter by Quarter: A Test of Resilience
Q1: A Disrupted Start
2025 opened with a surge in location deception that disrupted even the most basic maritime function: knowing where a vessel actually was. Over 330 ships were affected by GPS spoofing and jamming, with new hotspots emerging across the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden, and West Africa. These disruptions made it harder to track ships, validate port calls, and confirm counterparty activity. Vessels that had sailed without issue in Q4 2024 suddenly vanished from tracking systems, including more than 180 ships near Sudan, over 30 near Djibouti, and more than 120 between the Black Sea and the Gulf of Guinea.
March marked a sharp pivot in U.S. trade lanes. Tanker flows to Mexico and Canada dropped steeply, likely tied to new energy tariffs, while U.S.-China routes showed a post-front-loading slowdown in both container and bulk traffic. These shifts signaled how policy volatility was already reshaping behavior in real time.
For many, the result was a deeper operational blind spot. Without real-time visibility, teams struggled to assess exposure, validate movements, or respond before disruptions escalated.
Q2: A New Layer of Complexity
The second quarter brought new challenges and exposed deeper operational pressure points. The Red Sea conflict escalated, forcing widespread rerouting across the region. Major container flows were diverted to alternative routes, leading to congestion at secondary hubs like Singapore and Busan. Anchorage delays climbed, supply chains buckled, and logistics teams faced mounting uncertainty in planning and forecasting.
Deceptive practices surged. GPS jamming affected over 13,000 vessels, with new hotspots in the Arabian Gulf, Mediterranean, and Baltic Sea. During the Iran conflict, jamming triggered a wave of false port calls near critical terminals like Asaluyeh and Bandar Abbas. At the same time, false flag registrations spiked, with new fraudulent registries, including Eswatini and Guyana, attracting dark and gray fleet vessels seeking to obscure their identity and intent.
GPS Jamming in the Arabian Gulf (Q2 2025)
The integrity of documents and data could no longer be assumed. As misleading records and tampered signals proliferated, compliance and operations teams struggled to distinguish between technical errors and high-risk deception.
For systems built on static watchlists and manual checks, the gap widened. Without automation and real-time intelligence, the ability to detect, validate, and respond was lost in the noise.
Q3: The Risk Multiplier
The third quarter compounded existing stressors with escalating policy shocks. U.S.-China tariffs and retaliatory port fees upended shipping patterns, forcing container lines to rework schedules and reroute sailings. Counter-seasonal flows, blank sailings, and shifting demand drove delays and freight rate volatility across major Asia-Europe corridors. At key hubs like Rotterdam and Singapore, missed connections, rollovers, and transshipment disruptions surged.
Sanctions reached new extremes. Over 1,000 vessels had been blacklisted by Q3, including container ships and tankers tied to Russia, Iran, and other sanctioned regimes. False flag use doubled since January as operators scrambled to avoid deregistration. Dark and gray fleet operations expanded, with Comoros, Panama, and Russia dominating dark fleet registries, and deceptive shipping practices spreading across key global hubs.
The signal-to-noise problem deepened. Over 11,600 vessels were impacted by GPS jamming in Q3, a 510% spike from Q1, with a new jamming hub near Nakhodka Bay disrupting tracking around Russia’s Pacific export terminals. Combined with drifting, spoofing, and flag hopping, the cumulative effect clouded due diligence and operational visibility.
Jamming patterns in the Nakhodka Bay (left) during Q3 2025 and recent electronic interference off Qatar. Source: Windward Maritime AI™ Platform
By late Q3, many organizations were no longer navigating a single maritime environment, but a fragmented patchwork of enforcement rules, visibility gaps, and geopolitical fault lines.
Q4: A Fragile Finale
Just weeks into Q4, regulators escalated again, signaling that maritime trade remains a central front in sanctions enforcement.
In the EU’s 19th sanctions package, the focus shifted to core infrastructure:
These measures deepen the risk for any organization connected to Russian flows, even indirectly.
Meanwhile, the U.S. sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil firms, putting traders, charterers, and insurers on high alert. For the first time, enforcement is reaching upstream, threatening entire trade lifecycles, not just the ships that carry them.
The latest sanctions have changed the risk equation. With energy giants now in scope and enforcement expanding upstream, the pressure on maritime stakeholders is intensifying. Staying ahead means being able to validate counterparties, uncover hidden exposure, and respond with speed and certainty.
When Disruption Hit, AI Made the Difference
2025 was a real-world stress test for the maritime industry. Sanctions expanded, deceptive practices escalated, and global trade routes were upended, again and again. Through it all, organizations relying on manual processes struggled to keep pace. Those equipped with Maritime AI™ moved faster, validated threats, and adapted with precision.
In a year defined by deception, resilience came from clarity – intelligence you could trust, context you could act on, and systems built to adapt in real time.
With intelligent alerts, anomaly detection, and contextual risk scoring, AI-driven platforms helped users filter signal from noise, cutting through spoofing, false flags, and dark flows to see the true picture. Automated document validation added a critical layer of protection, helping stakeholders flag inconsistencies, identify tampering, and accelerate due diligence.
Remote sensing also played a growing role. As dark fleet behaviors evolved and GPS tracking became unreliable, fusing SAR, EO, RF, and AIS data enabled users to verify vessel location and behavior with visual confirmation and behavioral context. This fusion became essential for enforcement, insurance, trade, and logistics operations alike.
Static watchlists and outdated tools couldn’t keep up. But platforms powered by Maritime AI™ delivered dynamic, decision-ready intelligence, giving users the clarity and confidence to act.
2026 Is Coming With New Stress Tests
The challenges of 2025 aren’t behind us – they’re the blueprint for what’s next.
From the first signs of spoofing and trade rerouting to the latest wave of sanctions and registry abuse, this year has tested every part of maritime operations. It revealed which organizations could respond in real time, and which were left scrambling.
In Q4, the pressure continues to shift, with new enforcement angles, risk signals, and operational challenges emerging in real time.
2026 will demand more than awareness. It will require platforms that fuse behavioral intelligence, remote sensing intelligence, and document validation into a single, adaptive workflow, delivering the context and confidence to act before risk turns into exposure.
Turkish authorities late on Tuesday denied claims that Türkiye's recent liquefied natural gas (LNG) deal with the U.S. will end Russian gas imports, leading to an imminent energy crisis.
"Türkiye is one of the strongest countries in its region in terms of security of (energy) supplies, with its pipeline, LNG and storage infrastructure. There is no problem with the security of natural gas supplies or risk of an energy crisis today or for the coming winter period," the Directorate of Communications' Center for Combating Disinformation (DMM) said in a written statement on X.
Debunking the claims in some media reports, the center said they were "products of disinformation."
The statement also noted that Türkiye’s natural gas supply from Russia continues "uninterrupted and as planned within the framework of long-term contracts in force between the relevant institutions."
At the same time, it said the country’s procurement of pipeline gas and LNG from multiple sources, such as the U.S., Azerbaijan, Iran, Algeria, Oman and Qatar, "is a technical preference aimed at diversifying supply security, increasing competition and strengthening the flexibility of supplies."
Russia remains Türkiye's largest gas supplier, but its share of the market has fallen from more than 60% two decades ago to 37% in the first half of 2025, according to Reuters. Most European countries halted imports following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Ankara has often reiterated that it aims to increase the diversity of its supply and benefit from global LNG abundance while also boosting its push for domestic gas and oil production, alongside renewable capacity expansion. It is also planning to start production of electricity from its first nuclear power plant, developed by Russia's Rosatom, next year.
At the same time, the country has positioned itself to become a regional gas trading hub, and its state-run energy firm BOTAŞ has already signed deals to supply Hungary and Romania with small volumes of gas.
In September, Türkiye signed a 20-year deal with trading company Mercuria to buy U.S. liquefied natural gas.
The Trump administration has pushed countries like India to halt energy purchases from Russia – while trying to corner the Kremlin in peace talks with Kyiv – slapping it with additional tariffs, which have tested Washington-New Delhi ties.
Türkiye is the second-largest importer of seaborne Russian Urals crude after India, according to LSEG data. It has not joined Western sanctions against Russia but complies with international laws and restrictions.
It is also a major mediator in the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
Alaska LNG, majority owned and developed by Glenfarne Alaska LNG, LLC (Glenfarne), and Baker Hughes have announced a strategic alliance to advance the Alaska LNG Project, US.
Glenfarne has selected Baker Hughes as its supplier for main refrigerant compressors for the LNG terminal and power generation equipment for the North Slope gas treatment plant. Baker Hughes has also committed to a strategic investment to support Alaska LNG. The agreements were announced in a ceremony in Washington, D.C., with US Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum and Secretary of Energy Chris Wright.
“Baker Hughes is pleased to support Alaska LNG with our gas technology solutions,” said Lorenzo Simonelli, Chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes. “Natural gas and LNG provide secure, affordable, and reliable energy, and we look forward to continuing our collaboration with Glenfarne to bring lower-carbon natural gas from Alaska to the global market.”
“Baker Hughes is a welcome partner for Alaska LNG because of their leadership in LNG compression technology,” said Brendan Duval, CEO and Founder of Glenfarne. “Their participation reflects Alaska LNG’s momentum and its ability to attract global partners to achieve national and state energy objectives.”
Glenfarne is developing Alaska LNG in two financially independent phases to accelerate project execution. Phase One consists of an 807-mile, 42-in. pipeline to transport natural gas from Alaska’s North Slope to meet Alaska’s domestic energy needs. Worley is expected to complete final engineering and cost analysis for the pipeline in December leading into a final investment decision (FID) on this phase of the project.
Phase Two of the project will add the LNG terminal and related infrastructure to enable 20 million tpy of LNG export capability and is expected to declare FID in late 2026.
Glenfarne became lead developer of Alaska LNG in March. Since then, Glenfarne has secured preliminary commercial commitments with leading LNG buyers in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand for 11 million tpy of LNG, more than 60% of the volume needed to reach FID, including recent agreements with Tokyo Gas, JERA Co. Inc. and POSCO International Corp.
Glenfarne’s permitted North American LNG portfolio totals 32.8 million tpy of capacity across projects in Alaska, Texas, and Louisiana. The companies previously announced that Baker Hughes will supply compression equipment for Glenfarne’s Texas LNG project.
Russia has decided to sell its stake in the Serbian oil and gas company NIS amid US sanctions. This was stated by the Minister of Energy of Serbia, Dubravka Đedović-Handanović, noting that it concerns 56.15% of the shares, but the name of the buyer has not yet been disclosed. This is reported by UNN.
Details
The majority of NIS shares are currently controlled by Gazprom Neft – 44.85%, another 29.87% belongs to Serbia. 11.30% of the shares are owned by the St. Petersburg JSC "Intelligence", managed by Gazprom Capital, the remaining share is distributed among minority shareholders.
In early 2025, Washington added NIS to the list of prohibited companies. On October 9, 2025, NIS officially announced the entry into force of American sanctions. After that, as reported, the US insisted on Russia's complete withdrawal from the company's shareholders.
The sale of the Russian stake could be a key step in reducing sanctions pressure on the Serbian energy sector.
https://unn.ua/en/amp/moscow-agreed-to-sell-its-stake-in-serbian-company-nis-after-us-sanctions
By Enes Tunagur and Robert Harvey
LONDON — Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday after a report of a U.S. proposal to end the Russian war in Ukraine and as oversupply concerns continued to weigh on prices.
Brent crude futures fell $1.72, or 2.65%, to $63.17 a barrel by 1421 GMT after gaining 1.1% the previous session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down $1.65, or 2.72%, at $59.09 after rising by 1.4% on Tuesday.
Ukraine has received “signals” about a set of U.S. proposals to end the war, which Washington has discussed with Russia, a senior Ukrainian official told Reuters on Wednesday.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy will hold talks in Turkey on Wednesday and meet U.S. Army officials in Kyiv on Thursday in a new drive to revive peace negotiations with Russia.
Successful peace talks would reduce oil supply risks, said Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that U.S. sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil, imposed in October after peace talks stalled, have had no impact on Russian oil output.
The U.S. Treasury said on Monday that sanctions now squeezing Russia’s oil revenue are expected to curb its export volumes. Crude buyers in China and India have already started switching to alternative suppliers.
Those sanctions come into full effect on November 21 when a U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) wind-down licence ends, except for assets given separate operating licences.
“There is maximum pressure right now as Friday’s deadline is looming,” said Rystad Energy oil analyst Janiv Shah, adding that a lower geopolitical risk premium would leave investors focusing more closely on weak market fundamentals.
Supply glut in focus
The risk of a supply glut continued to weigh on prices along with falling gasoil futures after strong gains in recent sessions, Saxo Bank’s Hansen added.
U.S. crude stocks rose by 4.45 million barrels in the week ended November 14 while gasoline inventories climbed by 1.55 million barrels and distillate stocks grew by 577,000 barrels, market sources said late on Tuesday, citing American Petroleum Institute figures.
Inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due later on Wednesday.
https://journalrecord.com/2025/11/19/oil-prices-fall-us-peace-proposal-ukraine-oversupply/
Oil prices edged up on Thursday after falling in the previous session as concerns a U.S. push to end the Russia-Ukraine war may add supply into an amply supplied market were offset by a bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles.
Brent crude futures climbed 16 cents, or 0.25%, to $63.67 a barrel at 0338 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 17 cents, or 0.29%, to $59.61.
Both benchmarks slightly rebounded after falling 2.1% during Wednesday's session. The movement followed a Reuters report that the U.S. had signalled to Ukraine to accept a U.S.-drafted framework to end the war with Russia by giving up territory and some weapons, citing two sources familiar with the matter.
Prices dropped on concerns an end to the war would end sanctions on Russian crude sales, releasing that supply onto the market at the same time oil is being stored on tankers and major producers have increased their output quotas.
In a note on Thursday, analysts at ING cautioned that Ukraine is unlikely to back the plan as they could see it favouring Russia but "signs that the U.S. is still trying to work on a deal eases some concerns over further sanctions against Russia and also how strongly current curbs will be enforced."
Lending some support to prices was the bigger-than-expected draw in U.S. crude stockpiles reported on Wednesday, which reflected rising refining runs amid good margins in the world's biggest oil consumer, and export demand for U.S. crude.
Crude inventories fell by 3.4 million barrels to 424.2 million barrels in the week ended November 14, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 603,000-barrel draw.
That said, analysts also pointed out that gasoline and distillate stockpiles in the U.S. built for the first time in over a month, a sign of slowing consumption.
The market is also awaiting the impact of a November 21 deadline set by the U.S. for companies to wind down their business with Rosneft (ROSN.MM) and Lukoil (LKOH.MM), Russia's two biggest oil producers and exporters.
The companies were sanctioned as part of U.S. efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war.
https://shafaq.com/en/Economy/Brent-WTI-rebound-after-2-1-drop-aided-by-EIA-data
Summary
Nov 19 (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration is considering delaying for one or two years its proposed cuts in incentives for imported biofuels amid pressure from U.S. refiners who argue the move could raise costs and tighten fuel supplies, according to two sources familiar with the matter.
The delay now under discussion could please domestic oil refiners that have invested in the bio-based diesel sector but would risk frustrating U.S. farmers and biofuel producers.
The proposal for the Environmental Protection Agency to slash the value of renewable fuel credits given by the U.S. government for imported biofuels was initially pitched this year as part of Trump's "America First" energy agenda, aimed at boosting domestic production and reducing reliance on foreign supply, and was meant to take effect Jan. 1.
The Environmental Protection Agency is now weighing a plan to delay implementation of that proposal until 2027 or 2028, the sources told Reuters, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The EPA said it is reviewing public comments ahead of issuing final rules in the coming months. The agency declined to comment on whether it is considering a delay. The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Big Oil, led by the influential American Petroleum Institute industry group, had argued that limiting credits for foreign supply could constrain availability and push fuel prices higher - an outcome the White House is eager to avoid as affordability remains a central political concern heading into next year's congressional elections.
Under the proposed cuts in credits for imports, the EPA would allocate only half as many tradable renewable fuel credits to imported biofuels and biofuel feedstocks as to domestic ones. The shift has significant implications for bio-based diesel, which relies on imports to meet federal mandates.
The decision on a possible delay is one of several high-profile regulatory moves by the administration that the fuel industry is closely watching.
Others include finalizing 2026 biofuel blending mandates, determining whether to allow year-round sales of gasoline blended with 15% ethanol, or E15, and deciding how or whether to require larger refiners to compensate for exempted gallons under the small refinery waiver program.
The protracted U.S. government shutdown and efforts to resolve a logjam of small refiner requests for exemptions from U.S. biofuel laws have also contributed to delays in resolving regulatory moves related to biofuels, the sources said.
Newmont Mining US6516391066
The world's largest gold producer finds itself at the center of significant market speculation. Newmont Mining is simultaneously advancing a major copper development project while industry observers ponder whether the company might be positioned to acquire the world's most valuable gold mining operations from competitor Barrick Gold.
Newmont approaches these potential strategic moves from a position of financial strength. The company's robust cash flow, supported by favorable gold prices and disciplined cost control, provides a solid foundation for substantial investments. October's quarterly results notably exceeded analyst projections, demonstrating the company's capacity to fund both large-scale projects and potential acquisitions.
Adding to the dynamic landscape, Newmont will undergo a leadership transition at year's end. Current CEO Tom Palmer is retiring, with COO Natascha Viljoen slated to become the first woman to lead the global gold mining giant. Market participants are watching closely to see how her leadership might influence the company's strategic direction.
Major Copper Investment in Papua New Guinea
Newmont is aggressively pursuing its copper strategy through the Wafi-Golpu project in Papua New Guinea, a joint venture with Harmony Gold. Recent estimates indicate this massive undertaking could require an investment of up to $5 billion, highlighting its strategic importance to the company's future.
This focus on copper aligns with broader industrial trends. The metal is increasingly essential for global energy transition technologies, spanning applications from electric vehicles to power grid infrastructure. Through Wafi-Golpu, Newmont aims to establish itself not merely as a gold mining leader but as a significant participant in the future copper market.
Potential Shift in Nevada Gold Operations
Meanwhile, developments involving competitor Barrick Gold could create acquisition opportunities. Activist investor Elliott Management has taken a position in Barrick, leading to market speculation about potential changes to the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture.
Key details of the current arrangement:
- Barrick maintains a 61.5% controlling interest in Nevada Gold Mines
- Newmont holds the remaining 38.5% stake
- The joint venture represents the world's largest gold mining complex
- Full control by Newmont would represent a substantial strategic achievement
Industry analysts suggest Elliott Management might pressure Barrick to divest its entire stake in the Nevada operations to Newmont. Such a transaction would significantly alter the global gold mining landscape and potentially deliver one of the industry's most valuable assets to Newmont's portfolio.
Bloomberg News | November 17, 2025 | 5:59 pm
Rare earth element yttrium oxide has hit an all-time high after surging almost 1,500% this year, highlighting the fallout of trade curbs from China.
Prices surged to $126 a kilogram, up from less than $8 at the end of 2024, according Asian Metal Inc. In April, China imposed export curbs on rare earths, including yttrium.
Rare earths — their output, refining, trade, and usage — are at the heart of the drawn-out trade showdown between the world’s two largest economies. At present, China dominates their production, and while Beijing recently agreed to free up sales, the two sides are still negotiating over the details.
Yttrium’s uses include medical technologies, as well as aerospace equipment, ceramics, lasers and superconductors. In the four years to 2023, more than 90% of US imports came from China, according to the US Geological Survey.
In the US, while Pentagon-backed MP Materials Corp. mines yttrium at its Mountain Pass project, the company is stockpiling the material while it plans a downstream expansion.
Elsewhere, Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths Ltd., which produces an array of rare earths, is expanding capacity to produce yttrium from its Mount Weld mine and processing plant in Malaysia.
https://www.mining.com/web/yttrium-price-surges-to-record-as-rally-approaches-1500/
The government is also looking into speeding up the replacement of its own protective measures
The UK is developing countermeasures against the EU’s proposed steel tariff increases in case it fails to reach an agreement to mitigate their impact. This was reported by Bloomberg, citing sources.
The issue is being considered after the country’s steel industry warned that European plans could lead to the biggest crisis in its history.
The British government is also considering how to speed up the replacement of its own protective measures on steel, which expire in June, and to tighten import quotas, insiders said.
Although the sources did not specify what steps are being considered in response to Europe, any escalation would mark a shift in the UK’s position, which has so far sought to avoid trade wars. It would also raise new questions about efforts to rebuild ties with Brussels.
EC spokesman Olof Gill said the EU would work with all partners in the free trade agreement, explain the new measures and their implications, and discuss further action. At the same time, the bloc will continue to emphasize the need for a collective decision to address the problem of global overcapacity.
According to the British government’s estimates, the new European measures will have a significant impact on the country’s steel industry. The EU market is critically important for the industry, with more than three-quarters of UK rolled steel exports shipped to the bloc last year.
However, according to one source familiar with the sector’s views, Britain is also a large enough buyer of European steel for the threat of retaliatory tariffs to cause concern in Brussels.
It should be recalled that in October this year, the European Commission presented a significant strengthening of protective measures on steel imports. The EC’s statement caused concern among the bloc’s trading partners. In particular, even before the proposal was announced, British steelmakers indicated that the reduction in the bloc’s quotas threatened them more than US tariffs.
https://gmk.center/en/news/the-uk-is-considering-options-for-responding-to-european-steel-tariffs/
Social partners call on EU institutions to introduce new trade measures by April 2026
The European Steel Association (EUROFER) and the industriAll Europe trade union federation warn that the EU cannot wait until June 2026 to introduce new protective measures on steel imports. This is stated in a EUROFER press release.
As noted, the urgency of the issue has not changed since October, as the steel sector is under pressure, imports are at record levels, and jobs are at risk.
EUROFER and industriAll Europe stressed that the European Commission’s proposal must be adopted as a matter of priority and implemented well before the current protective measures expire.
The social partners call on the EU institutions to act immediately by introducing new trade measures by April 2026 and backing them up with a real industrial strategy.
They noted that there is currently no improvement in the economic outlook for the sector. Demand for steel remains low, with no significant recovery in sight, EU capacity restructuring is marked by closures, while global competitors are building new plants and global overcapacity continues to grow. In addition, the bloc continues to be flooded with cheap imports, which already account for 27% of the market share, twice as much as in 2012. The utilization rate of European capacity remains unsustainable.
In addition, there is massive stockpiling, undermining the future impact of new trade measures even before they take effect.
“If the new trade measures do not come into force by April 1, 2026, next year will be another lost year for European steel producers. That is why their swift adoption by the European Parliament and the EU Council is of paramount importance. We cannot afford amendments that delay adoption,” EUROFER said in a statement.
In October this year, the European Commission presented a proposal to protect the EU steel industry from the unfair impact of global overcapacity. This involves limiting duty-free imports to 18.3 million tons per year, which is a 47% reduction compared to the 2024 steel quotas, and doubling the duty rate on products outside the quota to 50%.
