Global energy markets have been upended following a historic, late-night diplomatic breakthrough that has officially brought an end to the 100-day war between the United States and Iran.
Mediated by Pakistan and Qatar after a grueling 15-hour marathon negotiation session, the two adversaries finalized a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to permanently terminate military operations on all fronts. US President Donald Trump confirmed the completion of the deal via social media, ordering an immediate halt to the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and authorizing the “toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz.”
The landmark truce, which is scheduled to be officially signed in Switzerland this coming Friday, has sent shockwaves through international commodity desks and triggered a massive sell-off in energy-linked equities.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—a choke point responsible for the transit of nearly one-fifth of the world’s daily petroleum supply, has single-handedly defused the global energy supply crunch that had choked global trade since late February.
In early Monday trading, global benchmarks plummeted to their lowest levels since March as speculative “fear premiums” vanished from the market:
Brent Crude dropped sharply by 4.1% ($3.58), sliding below the psychological threshold of $85 to trade at $83.75 a barrel. WTI (West Texas Intermediate) suffered an even steeper decline, tumbling 4.7% ($4.01) to $80.87 a barrel.
Analysts note that the prospect of normal maritime transit and a phased lifting of sanctions allowing Iranian crude back onto global markets has completely shifted the near-term outlook from an acute supply deficit to an impending supply glut.
The immediate casualty of the global crude collapse on the local front has been South African petrochemical giant Sasol (JSE: SOL).
Having ridden high on the back of elevated oil prices over the last three months, Sasol shares experienced an aggressive, high-volume sell-off on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange as morning trade opened. The petrochemical giant plummeted to an intra-day low of R193.38, tumbling heavily from its previous close of R213.57 on Friday and representing a sharp 9.45% drop within the first few hours of the session.
Investors quickly priced in a massive squeeze on Sasol’s future refining margins and synfuel profitability. The downside pressure on Sasol has been further compounded by a strengthening South African Rand, which is rapidly tracking toward the R16/$ level as global capital rotates back into risk-sensitive emerging market assets following the peace announcement.
With international shipping companies ordered to “start their engines” for mine-clearing operations in the Strait, the commodity super-cycle sparked by the war appears structurally broken, leaving Sasol vulnerable to further correction if Brent Crude drops toward the $80 floor.
https://www.publicnewshub.com/strait-of-hormuz-reopens-as-us-iran-ceasefire-triggers-oil-crash/
BEIJING, June 15 (Xinhua) -- An article by Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, on advancing the integrated development of education, science and technology, and talent will be published on Tuesday.
The article by Xi, also Chinese president and chairman of the Central Military Commission, will be published in this year's 12th issue of the Qiushi Journal, a flagship magazine of the CPC Central Committee.
The article is an excerpt of Xi's discourses from December 2012 to April 2026.
It stresses that education, science and technology, and talent are both the foundational and strategic pillars needed for building a modern socialist country in all respects.
Education should better underpin science, technology and talent development, the article notes. It positions high-level research universities as the main drivers of national basic research and the cradles for major scientific and technological breakthroughs.
It urges efforts to optimize higher education layout, advance differentiated reforms in universities, and update teaching methods to foster an environment conducive to the growth of innovative talent.
Calling for a more effective national innovation system, the article highlights the need to strengthen the Party Central Committee's unified leadership over science and technology work.
It further demands sustained efforts to reinforce basic research capacity and enhance original innovation, while stepping up research to achieve breakthroughs in core technologies in key fields and in frontier technologies.
The article also points to the need to identify and nurture talent on the front lines of scientific research, expand the pool of basic research personnel, and help young scientists grow and thrive.
JOHANNESBURG, June 15 (Reuters) - South African assets rose on Monday, with the rand strengthening, stocks climbing and government bonds firming as the dollar weakened and oil prices slipped to a three-month low following a preliminary agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
At 1408 GMT, the rand traded at 16.1725 against the dollar , about 0.8% up from its previous close.
Reporting by Anathi Madubela and Nilutpal Timsina; Editing by Harikrishnan Nair and Barbara Lewis
The new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh departs the East Room of the White House after a swearing in ceremony in Washington, DC on May 22, 2026. Aaron Schwartz/AFP/Getty Images
New York — Kevin Warsh’s dream of becoming Federal Reserve chairman was nearly tarnished by the specter of having to confront simultaneous and conflicting challenges brewing in the US economy.
In January, when President Donald Trump nominated Warsh for the top job, the labor market had just wrapped up one of its weakest years in decades. Unemployment was rising and the US economy was losing jobs.
And then, weeks later, the inflation side of the Fed’s mandate reared its ugly head. The war with Iran caused oil, diesel, jet fuel and gasoline prices to skyrocket.
A driver fills up his vehicle at a gas station in Wiggins, Colorado, on May 11, 2026. Kevin Mohatt/Reuters
That raised the risk of Warsh having to lead the Fed through a dreaded two-sided battle, with officials forced to decide whether to rescue the job market by cutting rates or put out the inflation fire by hiking rates.
But now, the immediate challenge facing Warsh looks a bit less daunting.
Not only has the job market raced back to life this spring, but energy prices are plunging. The US-Iran agreement to halt the 15-week-long war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz has eased fears of a lasting inflation spike, reducing the urgency for Warsh to consider a rate hike in the immediate future.
“It takes some pressure off Warsh. It means the worst-case for hikes is more off the table than on it,” said Benson Durham, a former Fed official and founder of DASM LLC, an independent research firm.
‘Smaller inflation wave than feared’
To be clear, Warsh was never going to raise rates in his first meeting this week. The odds of a rate hike on Wednesday are almost zero. He was likely not going to cut rates either, even though he faces intense pressure from Trump, who has joked that he would “sue” Warsh if he doesn’t lower borrowing costs.
But a growing number of Fed officials have warned that rate hikes could eventually be needed to drive inflation down.
Even though details remain scarce on the US-Iran framework and many challenges remain, oil futures plunged to three-month lows on Monday.
Gas prices, which play a key role in shaping consumer psychology about inflation, have already declined 25 days in a row to two-month lows.
“The lower path for oil means a smaller inflation wave than feared… less extended supply chain disruptions and, importantly, much reduced risk of a spike to new highs that would shock inflation expectations,” Krishna Guha, vice chairman and head of economics and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
The US-Iran framework and oil market sell-off is “nudging up the likelihood that the Fed will be able to tough it out without raising rates,” Guha said.
Eric Rosengren, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, told CNN that the US-Iran framework is “clearly positive news.”
“It’s a first step but it’s a positive for the economy and the Fed,” he said.
However, Rosengren noted that the formal signing of the agreement is not scheduled until Friday, after the Fed meets.
“I don’t think they will put too much stock in a memorandum of understanding that doesn’t have details sorted out. It only takes a bomb in Beirut or a ship getting attacked to completely change the environment,” he said.
Less pressure to hike
Indeed, oil market researchers caution that the US-Iran agreement won’t immediately return traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels.
And the market is not signaling a swift return to pre-war prices either. The futures market doesn’t see Brent returning to $75 a barrel until 2028.
Still, Fed watchers say the fact that there is a US-Iran framework will allow Fed officials to avoid overreacting to another hot inflation report in June. The agreement boosts the wait-and-see approach advocated by doves at the Fed, who are generally more willing to keep rates lower.
“The Fed is on a firmer footing and has a little more certainty about next steps. The Fed is now less likely to react strongly to near-term inflationary pressures,” said Durham, the former Fed official who now teaches at Columbia University and New York University.
Renovation work continues on the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, the main offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System on December 9, 2025 in Washington, DC. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
Of course, Warsh still faces plenty of challenges, including winning over the new colleagues he was previously critical of.
“Kevin is very good one-on-one. He’s a smart guy and very personable,” said Rosengren, who served with Warsh at the Fed during the 2008 financial crisis.
Inflation hawk or dove?
Back then, Warsh sounded deeply concerned about inflation.
Even in April 2009, during the middle of the Great Recession when unemployment was skyrocketing, Warsh said he was “more worried about upside risks to inflation than downside risks,” according to Fed meeting minutes that were later released. (At the time, the Consumer Price Indexwas -0.4%, compared with 4.2% this past May).
More recently, as Warsh was being considered as a replacement for Jerome Powell, he expressed a willingness to cut interest rates in part because of hopes that the artificial intelligence boom will raise productivity and lower inflation.
“During the financial crisis, he was very concerned about inflation, including energy prices,” Rosengren said. “I hope now that he’s not running for the job, he goes back to being as concerned about inflation as in the past.”
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/16/economy/fed-kevin-warsh-iran-deal
The U.S.-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could prompt China to return to buying more crude after months of multi-year-low purchases, which could reignite inflationary pressures despite the expected ease of oil flows from the Middle East.
Late on Sunday, the U.S. and Iran announced a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz more than 100 days after its closure. This re-opening could happen as soon as an agreement is signed on Friday. News of the deal sent oil prices tumbling early on Monday, with Brent Crude prices down to $83 per barrel, and WTI Crude at the $80 a barrel handle.
If the agreement holds and flows through the Strait of Hormuz, begin to tick up relatively quickly, China could resume buying more crude, and this additional demand, which had vanished in the past three months, could tighten the oil market and drive up inflation, analysts at Bloomberg Economics said in a note on Monday.
“Any recovery in Chinese oil demand — particularly if energy flows remain constrained — could tighten global energy markets, reignite inflation pressures and complicate the task facing central banks,” Bloomberg Economics’ analysts wrote.
Energy flows are likely to take months to recover to pre-war levels, assuming the deal holds and traffic through the Strait of Hormuz sustainably increases, analysts say.
China’s severely reduced crude oil imports have been a key anchor keeping oil prices below $100 per barrel during the past few weeks, alongside record U.S. crude and fuel exports and global releases from strategic oil stockpiles coordinated by the International Energy Agency.
Crude oil imports to China in May fell to their lowest since October 2017 due to the price spike.
The world’s top crude importer started tapping its huge oil reserves last month, in a sign that Beijing is still refraining from paying top-dollar for prompt crude deliveries. So far into this unprecedented crisis, China has slashed refinery run rates, limited exports, and cut demand for road transportation fuels as consumers prefer driving EVs over paying high gasoline prices.
The key question for the oil market is how much demand China would generate when it returns to more active crude purchases.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
The West Australian government would seek to block any takeover of Woodside Energy that involved moving its headquarters, the state’s Premier Roger Cook said on Sunday.
Woodside, which has been headquartered in Perth since the 1990s, has led development of Australia’s liquefied natural gas industry.
U.S. energy major ExxonMobil is considering targets, including Woodside, although it said internal discussions were at an early stage, Bloomberg News reported on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.
A Woodside spokesperson declined to comment. Exxon in Australia did not respond to a request for comment.
“The WA government will fight hard to keep Woodside Western Australian,” Cook said in an emailed statement to Reuters on Sunday.
“Overseas interests have sought to acquire Woodside before and the reasons it was previously defeated have not changed.”
Ultimately the decision rests with the national government in Canberra via the Foreign Investment Review Board, overseen by the treasurer.
However, the West Australian government successfully opposed on national-interest grounds a 2001 takeover attempt by Shell, which was at the time a significant Woodside shareholder. The first report of takeover interest since that failed attempt boosted Woodside’s shares 8.35% in its secondary U.S. listing on Friday.
Exxon has a long history in Australia’s gas business, mainly on the east coast, where Woodside is its partner. It also holds 25% in West Australia’s Gorgon LNG project operated by Chevron.
Taking over Woodside would give the U.S. giant a larger LNG footprint and greater access to high-demand Asian markets. Woodside wants to develop Browse, Australia’s biggest undeveloped gas field, to go into the North West Shelf LNG plant, which it also runs, in a project estimated to cost $35 billion. On Friday, Woodside preempted the sale of PetroChina’s 10.67% stake in the Browse gas field to Japan’s Inpex, giving the Australian company close to a 42% holding in the project, which it runs.
(Reporting by Helen Clark; editing by Barbara Lewis)
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Jun 15, 2026, 3:00 PM CDT
Venezuela’s oil production and exports are set to increase in the coming months as the United States further eases the rules of operating in the world’s biggest crude resource holder after taking control over the industry following the capture of Nicolas Maduro.
The rise of Venezuela’s oil supply is good news for South America’s oil producers and sellers, which have stepped up shipments so far this year amid the disruption in the Middle East. It’s also good news for the U.S., whose refineries are taking increased volumes of Venezuelan crude.
The Venezuelan rebound and the increase in South America’s crude supply from Brazil and Guyana are also good news for crude buyers in Asia and Europe, who are diversifying sources of oil as the Strait of Hormuz may have turned into a permanent risk to oil supply.
In yet another step toward more oil from Venezuela, the U.S. last week eased several key general licenses for operations in Venezuela, allowing additional activity, although it did not remove sanctions fully. The new U.S. Treasury guidance eases certain commercial constraints in key sectors, including oil, gas, and minerals extraction.
At the same time, the world’s biggest oilfield services provider, SLB, signed a long-term framework agreement with Venezuela’s state oil firm PDVSA to support the revitalization and modernization of Venezuela’s oil and gas sector. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) establishes a basis for cooperation across exploration, field development, production, digital enablement, and workforce training and development, SLB said.
“This MoU builds on that continuity and sets out a path with PDVSA to strengthen operational excellence and develop the skills that will sustain performance for years to come,” SLB’s chief executive officer, Olivier Le Peuch, said.
The return of international firms to Venezuela lays the foundations for a rebound in the country’s oil supply, although it’s still a third of the peak levels of 3 million barrels per day (bpd) from more than a decade ago.
Venezuela is back on international markets with its oil sales under U.S. control and being marketed by top commodity trading houses Vitol and Trafigura. Venezuela’s oil exports hit a fresh seven-year high in May as shipments to the United States and India surged.
Venezuela has been steadily increasing its oil exports since the U.S. took control over its oil sales following the capture of Maduro early this year. The U.S. has eased sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry and PDVSA, allowed Western firms to return to Venezuelan operations, and has encouraged American companies to sign production and export deals.
Venezuela exported an estimated 1.25 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil in May, up by 0.7% compared to April’s 1.23 million bpd exports and a massive 61% jump compared to May 2025.
The U.S. and India have become major buyers of Venezuela’s oil after the sanctions were dropped, and the top international oil traders Vitol and Trafigura were tasked to sell most of the crude to buyers.
The United States remained the top buyer of Venezuela’s crude, taking in about 558,000 bpd in May, followed by India with 427,000 bpd and Europe with 169,000 bpd. Shipments to all three regions rose in May from April levels.
“Venezuela’s crude output recovery is no longer speculative,” Kpler’s Naveen Das wrote in an analysis last month.
Venezuelan output is aggressively recovering, targeting nearly 600,000 bpd growth on the year to 1.3 million bpd in 2026.
The issuance of new operating licenses is set to further boost Venezuela’s output toward 1.5 million bpd by 2027, according to Kpler.
U.S. refiners are set to benefit from the rebound, as they are well-positioned to take additional volumes of Venezuelan crude.
Refineries in the United States can still absorb additional volumes of Venezuelan crude, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week.
“You don't just flip on a switch, but you'll see more and more Venezuelan crude demanded by U.S. refineries,” Wright noted.
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Siemens Energy has warned it may reduce offshore wind turbine capacity in Europe if project delays persist and government action lags. The company said insufficient progress on offshore expansion could pose a significant risk to the region’s wind industry.
Regulatory challenges and grid connection delays have slowed offshore wind development across Europe. In Germany alone, around 16 GW of projects are at risk, with developers reassessing involvement due to financial uncertainty.
Siemens Gamesa, the company’s wind division, stated that while current plants are operating at full capacity, a lack of new orders from 2028 could create pressure on manufacturing output. The firm said this could lead to downsizing of resources at its facilities, rather than full shutdowns.
The company added that the European Union remains approximately 40 GW short of its 120 GW offshore wind target for 2030. Siemens Gamesa said it is working with policymakers to accelerate project timelines and unlock delayed developments.
https://www.tgs4c.com/news/siemens-energy-warns-of-offshore-wind-turbine-capacity-cuts-nid32955.html
Posted on 15 Jun 2026
Sweden’s Land and Environmental Court has granted an environmental permit for LKAB’s continued and expanded operations in Malmberget, which the mining company said is a decisive ruling for the future and transformation of the 135-year-old mining operation.
“At last, we have a ruling in place. We now need to review it and assess how to proceed. We operate in a time of major challenges and uncertainty, where it is crucial to gradually create better conditions for conducting and developing our operations. For us, this is not just about opportunities to grow and develop, but about being able to continue mining operations at all,” says Johan Menckel, President and CEO of LKAB.
The permit covers both continued and expanded mining and processing activities in Malmberget, as well as measures to reduce impact on air and water. It also includes the establishment of a demonstration plant for fossil-free sponge iron production and a new processing plant for apatite to supply LKAB’s planned industrial park in Luleå with apatite concentrate.
From the apatite concentrate both phosphorus for mineral fertilisers and rare earth elements used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, and the defence industry can be extracted.
“The permit is a prerequisite for securing our operations for decades to come. Our ambition is to gradually strengthen our competitiveness by further processing our pellets into fossil-free sponge iron, while also broadening our business with critical minerals. Our mines and the quality of our ore are an asset in the transition towards a sustainable future, and for increasing self-sufficiency in critical raw materials in Sweden and Europe,” says Menckel.
The development of mineral resources in Malmberget has grown significantly in recent years and now amounts to over 2 billion tonnes – more than LKAB has extracted since operations began in 1890. In addition to high-grade iron ore suitable for direct reduction, there are also large quantities of phosphorus and rare earth elements.
“This enables us to contribute to reduced carbon emissions from iron and steel production, while also allowing us to implement concrete environmental improvements locally. Today’s decision represents an important step for continued mining operations and for securing a competitive business in Gällivare both now and far into the future. It has been an extensive review process, and we need to examine the ruling in detail, but it feels very good that we have reached this point,” says Monika Sammelin, Area Manager in Malmberget, LKAB.
https://im-mining.com/2026/06/15/lkab-granted-environmental-permit-for-operations-in-gallivare/
The next phase of Vedanta Limited's restructuring journey begins on Monday, June 15, as the four businesses carved out under its demerger plan make their stock market debut.
The newly separated entities — Vedanta Aluminium Metal, Vedanta Iron and Steel, Vedanta Oil and Gas and Vedanta Power — will be listed on the exchanges at 10 am following the completion of price discovery.
The shares of all four companies will initially trade in the Trade-to-Trade (T2T) segment, where every transaction results in compulsory delivery and intraday netting is not permitted.
Under the demerger scheme announced earlier this year, shareholders of Vedanta received one share in each of the four newly created companies for every share held in the parent company on the record date.
As part of the restructuring, Talwandi Sabo Power has been renamed Vedanta Power, while Malco Energy has been renamed Vedanta Oil & Gas.
The demerger is aimed at simplifying Vedanta's corporate structure and providing investors with the flexibility to gain direct exposure to individual business verticals. The company has also highlighted potential tax efficiencies as one of the benefits of the separation.
Brokerages have assigned varying valuations to the demerged businesses. Kotak Institutional Equities estimates a value of ₹475 per share for Vedanta Aluminium, ₹39 for Vedanta Iron & Steel, ₹60 for Vedanta Power and ₹51 for Vedanta Oil & Gas.
Nuvama Institutional Equities values the businesses at ₹477, ₹30, ₹47 and ₹47 per share, respectively.
Among the newly listed companies, the aluminium business is expected to attract the most investor attention. Analysts see volume growth, backward integration initiatives and a favourable aluminium pricing environment as key drivers for the business.
Nuvama believes Vedanta's diversified resources portfolio, supported by its cash-generating zinc, lead and silver operations, provides a strong foundation for future growth. The brokerage also highlighted the company's competitive cost structure in zinc production due to captive mining assets and expects higher volumes and improved operational efficiencies to support earnings across businesses.
Meanwhile, Emkay Global Financial Services sees scope for a valuation re-rating in both the aluminium and power businesses following the demerger.
Published on 06/15/2026 at 09:16 pm EDT
By Megan Cheah
MMG plans to raise around US$1.60 billion through a share placement and convertible bond issuance, as it seeks to refinance debt and fund expansion.
The Australia-based metals miner, majority owned by state-owned China Minmetals Corp., said Tuesday it aims to raise 6.27 billion Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to US$800.3 million, through a placement of nearly 705.9 million shares at HK$8.88 each. That price represents an approximately 8.8% discount to Monday's closing price of HK$9.74.
Concurrently, the company plans to issue US$800 million in zero-coupon convertible bonds due 2027, with an initial conversion price of HK$10.21 a share. That price, subject to adjustments, represents a 4.8% premium to MMG's last closing price, the company said.
MMG aims to use the net proceeds to refinance debt, develop existing projects, expand its business, and fund potential investments and acquisitions.
Citi, BofA Securities and Morgan Stanley are among the banks advising MMG on the fundraising.
The company previously tapped the bond market in 2025, issuing US$500 million of zero-coupon convertible bonds due 2030 to finance its offshore debt.
MMG's shares closed 8.8% higher on Monday, bringing their year-to-date gains to about 11%.
Copper, the Gold of 2026
Wherever electricity is used, copper is indispensable.
Original Author: Jia Liu
Copper, will it become another form of gold in this era?
Over the past two years, the market has interpreted the AI infrastructure story as a chip narrative. NVIDIA's GPUs, TSMC's产能, HBM yield rates, CoWoS packaging bottlenecks—almost all discussions revolved around silicon wafers. However, an AI data center isn't something you can just plug GPUs into and start running. It also requires grid connections, transformers, busways, cables, liquid cooling systems, fiber optic interconnects, and a significant amount of metal.
In the previous article "The 'Great Famine' Moment for Fiber Optics and Copper in the AI Era," we briefly touched upon one thing: AI demand is cascading from chips down to fiber optics and copper.
This article delves deeper into the evolving narrative of copper over the past year. Why does the market increasingly see copper as similar to gold? Why are macro funds starting to buy copper? Why are mining companies and commodity traders all saying 'there's not enough copper'? Why is it no longer just the industrial metal used to gauge economic cycles?
Dr. Copper Is No Longer Just a Proxy for the Manufacturing Cycle
There's an old saying in English financial markets called 'Dr. Copper,' sometimes translated as 'Copper PhD' by Chinese financial media. The name implies that copper prices, like a doctor diagnosing the economy, can provide an early prognosis of global economic health.
This is because copper prices are inseparable from manufacturing. When China's real estate sector is booming and factories are restocking, driving demand for appliances, automobiles, cables, and pipes, copper prices rise. When the cycle turns down, copper follows. Essentially, copper prices were a proxy for China's real estate sector and the global manufacturing and trade cycle.
But today, copper demand has new influential variables: AI data centers, grid expansion, new energy vehicles, energy storage, military applications, and re-industrialization are all adding to structural demand for copper.
Anywhere electricity is used, copper is indispensable.
The Banque de France, in an analysis of AI data centers and the copper market, cited BHP's estimate: copper demand from AI data centers could grow from approximately 500,000 tons in 2024 to around 3 million tons by 2050. During the same period, copper demand from low-carbon energy systems could rise from 7.9 million tons to 17.3 million tons. The article also cited a specific case: the construction of Microsoft's Chicago data center consumed 2,177 tons of copper.
Looking at this number alone, it's not exceptionally large in the global copper market. But the point isn't how much copper a single data center uses; it's that behind AI data centers lies not a single point of demand, but a whole set of electricity infrastructure requirements. Denser GPUs mean higher rack power consumption, making data centers more like high-energy-consuming factories. Factories need electricity, and electricity requires grids, transformers, cables, busways, switchgear, and cooling systems.
Of course, we can't simply attribute every story about copper to AI.
Richard Holtum, CEO of global commodity trading giant Trafigura, reminded us during LME Week 2025 that while data centers and defense are indeed hot topics, the lion's share of copper demand over the next decade will still come from traditional infrastructure, construction, urbanization, and consumer goods. He also noted that air conditioners still consume more copper than data centers.
This perspective offers a new lens: the increase in copper demand isn't just propped up by AI alone. Its demand is growing because virtually all electricity-consuming scenarios are expanding simultaneously.
Copper's Biggest Bull Thesis: It Can't Be Mined Fast Enough
Many people's first impression of copper is that it's an 'industrial metal,' and they assume that if the price rises, mines can simply dig more, and supply will naturally follow. But that's not how it works.
It typically takes over a decade for a large copper mine to go from discovery, exploration, resource confirmation, feasibility study, financing, permitting, construction, to production. A report from the IEA shows that the average time from discovery to production for a new copper project is about 17 years. This means if the market suddenly realizes there's not enough copper in 2026, truly large-scale new supply might not appear until 2028 or 2029, with much of it waiting until the 2030s.
Robert Friedland, founder and Executive Co-Chairman of Canadian mining company Ivanhoe Mines, repeatedly emphasizes this issue. He is one of the most famous copper bulls in the global mining circle, possessing the world-class Kamoa-Kakula copper project in the DRC. His expressions are always radical: the world hasn't yet realized how much copper it actually needs. Over the past decade plus, the globe hasn't prepared enough new copper mines for the electrification era.
He's not alone in this judgment. Data from the IEA supports this direction.
The average grade of global copper mines has declined by about 40% since 1991. Declining grades mean that previously, mining one ton of ore yielded more copper; now, more ore, more electricity, more water, and more waste rock processing are needed to get the same ton of copper. The IEA also mentions that of the copper deposits discovered in the past 35 years, only 5% were found in the last decade. New discoveries are scarce, old mine grades are falling, project construction cycles are lengthening, and capital expenditure is rising. The IEA estimates that, based on the current project pipeline, the copper market could face a 30% supply gap by 2035.
Therefore, copper is not an asset in the typical commodity cycle where 'supply immediately appears once prices rise.' Copper mine projects are increasingly like large-scale infrastructure projects: you need to find the ore, obtain permits, handle community relations, address water resources, pass environmental reviews, and bear the brunt of changes in resource-rich countries' tax policies.
Chile, Peru, the DRC, Zambia, Indonesia, and Mongolia all have significant copper resources but also face various forms of political, tax, community, or operational risks. The more strategic copper becomes, the more incentive resource-rich countries have to demand a larger share; the higher the copper price, the more likely mining companies are to face tax increases and renegotiations.
The smelting side is also showing signs of strain.
Copper concentrate, once it enters a smelter, is processed into refined copper. The processing and refining fees that smelters charge mines are known in the industry as TC/RC (treatment charge and refining charge). Normally, when concentrate supply is ample, smelters have stronger bargaining power, and TC/RC is higher. When concentrate is tight, smelters compete for raw materials, causing TC/RC to fall.
An anomaly in 2026 is that while copper prices hit record highs, smelting processing fees fell to historic lows. The IEA states that the annual TC/RC benchmark for 2026 fell to $0 per ton, and spot TC/RC has been negative since 2024.
This is more critical than simply looking at exchange inventories. Because the bottleneck for copper isn't just in refined copper products; it's also in mines and concentrates. If upstream raw materials are tight, it doesn't matter how many smelters there are. China has massively expanded its copper smelting capacity over the past two decades. The IEA states that China accounts for over 90% of the growth in global copper smelting output since 2005 and will account for about half of global copper smelting output by 2025. While midstream capacity is strong, upstream mines are tight, amplifying the vulnerability of the supply chain.
Gold's scarcity comes from reserves, extraction costs, and its monetary属性. Copper is certainly not gold, but as its new supply becomes slower, its resources more concentrated, and its strategic attributes stronger, it too begins to possess a scarcity akin to gold.
Why Macro Funds Are Starting to Like Copper
Copper previously belonged mainly to commodity traders and mining analysts. Now, it's increasingly attracting macro funds.
Take Stanley Druckenmiller, for instance. One of America's most famous macro investors, he once managed the Quantum Fund with George Soros and later founded the Duquesne Family Office. Known for making big bets on major cycles with high conviction, the market pays close attention to his views on AI, the dollar, bonds, and commodities.
In a recent interview with Morgan Stanley, he mentioned that his portfolio was primarily driven by AI in previous years but has now shifted towards a more macro and geopolitical positioning. He mentioned holding copper, being bearish on the dollar, and holding gold as a geopolitical hedge.
His logic is: if the dollar weakens, dollar-denominated commodities benefit. Fiscal deficits are expanding, governments continue spending, geopolitical risks rise, creating buying pressure for gold; in the same environment, demand for physical assets from grids, military, AI data centers, energy systems, and manufacturing reshoring also increases, and copper sits at the intersection of these trends.
Druckenmiller represents the macro fund perspective, but there are even more radical voices in the commodity trading circle.
Pierre Andurand is the most typical example. A well-known European commodity hedge fund manager, he started in energy trading, co-founded BlueGold Capital, and later established Andurand Capital. In an interview with the Financial Times, he made a very aggressive forecast: copper prices could reach $40,000 per ton in the coming years.
Jeff Currie's views are also worth noting. A former long-time head of Commodities Research at Goldman Sachs who later joined Carlyle, Currie is one of the most influential voices on Wall Street for commodity research. He famously coined the phrase "copper is the new oil," suggesting that in the energy transition era, copper could play a foundational role similar to oil in the fossil fuel era. In 2024, he again called copper one of his highest-conviction trades.
Data also confirms that money is flowing in.
The Banque de France noted that between 2023 and 2024, annual trading volume in LME copper futures grew by 10.5%, and CME copper futures by 6.8%. For LME copper futures, speculative long positions held by investment funds reached 16.5% of open interest in May 2024. This isn't simple physical restocking; it's financial capital using copper as a macro trading tool.
Copper Mining Stocks: The Leverage on Copper
In a gold bull market, gold stocks typically amplify gold price movements. In a copper bull market, copper mining stocks also have a similar amplifier property.
When copper prices rise, it's a cost pressure for end-users, but for mining companies that already have production capacity, it can mean margin expansion. For example, if the copper price rises from $9,000 to $12,000 per ton, and the miner's cash costs don't rise simultaneously, a large portion of that additional $3,000 goes straight to the profit line. This is precisely why copper mining stocks naturally have operating leverage. If copper prices rise a certain amount, miner profits might rise much more; when copper prices fall, profits contract faster.
The market has been trading this leverage over the past two years.
Take A-shares as an example. From June 2024 to June 2026, CMOC Group Limited was the most typical high-beta name. Its core attraction is its copper-cobalt assets in the DRC, particularly Tenke Fungurume and KFM. Based on a rough calculation using adjusted closing prices, CMOC's price range increased by about 129% over this two-year period, with a peak gain of nearly 260%. This isn't the performance of a typical cyclical stock; it's the market re-pricing overseas copper resources.
Companies like Jiangxi Copper, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and Yunnan Copper better illustrate the volatility resulting from the combination of copper prices and smelting attributes. Jiangxi Copper saw a range increase of about 82%, peaking at over 200%; Tongling Nonferrous Metals saw a range increase of about 77%, peaking at around 159%; Yunnan Copper's range increase was only about 29%, but still peaked at over 130%.
These stocks all exhibit another side of copper mining stocks: significant upside when the tide comes in, but equally severe drawdowns when the tide goes out.
Looking at drawdowns from highs makes the volatility clearer. Yunnan Copper corrected about 45% from its range high, Jiangxi Copper corrected about 41%, and CMOC, Northern Copper, and Zijin Mining all experienced corrections of over 30%. Copper mining stocks are not the copper price itself; they are the result of the interplay between copper prices, costs, inventories, TC/RC, project progress, country risk, and equity market sentiment.
In US stocks, the most typical representative is Freeport-McMoRan, ticker FCX. It's one of the most core copper producers in the US, with assets including Morenci in the US, Cerro Verde in Peru, and Grasberg in Indonesia. For global capital, FCX is almost one of the most common US stock tools for gaining exposure to copper prices. MarketWatch data shows FCX hit a 52-week high of $72.09 on June 2, 2026, but dropped 9.07% in a single day on June 5, correcting over 12% from its high within days.
Southern Copper, ticker SCCO, is another representative high-quality copper mining stock. Its assets are primarily in Peru and Mexico, offering high copper exposure and strong profitability. IBD mentioned earlier this year that SCCO was up 55% at one point during the year and hit an all-time high. Compared to FCX, SCCO appears as a purer, higher-quality copper mining asset, but it too cannot escape copper price and country risks.
If investors don't want to bet on a single company, they can also look at copper mining ETFs, such as the Global X Copper Miners ETF.
However, copper mining stocks are far more complex than copper itself.
A mining company's value depends not only on the copper price but also on mine grade, cash costs, reserve life, capital expenditure, host country, tax policies, labor relations, environmental permits, transportation conditions, and management execution. While copper prices can lift the entire sector's valuation, there will be significant divergence between individual companies.
Country risk is particularly important. Many high-quality copper mines are located in Chile, Peru, the DRC, Zambia, Mongolia, and Indonesia. Good resource endowments don't guarantee stable shareholder returns. The more valuable copper becomes, the more governments will recalculate their share; the larger the project, the harder it is to manage community, environmental, water, and infrastructure issues.
Cost inflation can also erode profits. When copper prices rise, costs for energy, equipment, labor, steel, and financing often rise together. A seemingly attractive development project might end up delivering little shareholder value due to capital expenditure overruns, delayed production, or permitting hurdles.
Early-stage copper companies carry higher risk. They trade on future reserves and future production, but every step from resources to reserves, feasibility to financing, permits to construction, can fail. The long-term bullish thesis for copper doesn't guarantee that every copper mining stock will pan out.
Therefore, copper mining stocks are better understood as leveraged expressions of the copper price thesis, rather than simple substitutes for copper itself. They can offer higher upside but also bring larger drawdowns. The companies truly worth studying are those with low costs, long mine lives, clear expansion paths, robust balance sheets, and manageable political risks.
This is also part of copper's 'goldification': the scarcity thesis for copper is not just confined to the spot and futures markets; it is being repackaged by stock markets, ETFs, and speculative capital. The rise in copper prices is one layer of trading, and the rise in copper stocks is another. The former reflects the commodity itself, the latter reflects how much imagination the market is willing to invest in this long-term shortage.
Copper's 'Goldification' Is Just Beginning
The world needs more electricity, and more electricity means more copper.
Of course, copper won't truly turn into gold. It doesn't possess gold's pure monetary attributes, nor can it escape economic cycles. A global economic slowdown, weaker manufacturing, or a downturn in risk assets will all suppress copper prices. Copper will remain volatile, potentially violently so.
But the change lies in the underlying logic for copper being different from the past.
Historically, sharp copper price drops often coincided with weakening demand coupled with oversupply. Today's supply side isn't that loose. Aging mines, declining grades, lengthening permitting cycles, competition for smelting raw materials, and resource-rich countries redistributing benefits—these factors make it increasingly difficult to simply label copper as an ordinary cyclical commodity.
It might still be an industrial metal, but it is no longer merely a proxy for the industrial cycle.
Copper's 'goldification' is just beginning.
According to preliminary census data from the US Department of Commerce, US monthly steel imports in April this year increased by 7.6 percent from March and were down 8.2 percent year on year to total 1,730,765 mt. In terms of value, US steel imports in April totaled $1.75 billion, compared to $1.6 million in March and $2.19 billion in April 2025.
Top sources for US steel imports in April include: South Korea with 264,056 mt, Canada with 243,415 mt, Brazil with 195,354 mt, and Mexico with 170,641 mt.
By product group, semi-finished imports totaled 443,025 mt in April, up from 405,057 mt in March and up from 412,511 mt in April 2025. Flat product imports totaled 481,952 mt in April, up from 472,651 mt in March and down from 652,779 mt in April 2025. Long product imports totaled 433,181 mt in April, up from 349,879 mt in March and up from 318,924 mt in April last year. Pipe and tube imports amounted to 292,492 mt in April, down from 304,072 mt in March and down from 419,399 mt in April 2025.
According to the American Iron and Steel Institute, the share of imports in the US steel market was estimated at 16 percent in April and at 15 percent the first four months this year.