MARKET CATALYST | OCTOBER 2026
Sustained Houthi strikes targeting King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh and energy/logistics hubs in Dammam highlight the multi-front threat vector facing Saudi infrastructure. As markets assess political de-escalation narratives, physical supply-chain friction across eastern processing zones and western maritime transit routes continues to test the kingdom's deliverable spare capacity.
RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s non-oil industrial activities grew 1.2 percent year on year in August, despite a broader decline in mining and quarrying output that pushed the Kingdom’s Industrial Production Index down 23.5 percent, official data showed.
Preliminary figures from the General Authority for Statistics showed that the nation’s IPI fell to 87.1 in August, down from 101.3 in July and 113.9 in the same month a year earlier.
The decline was driven largely by a 35.8 percent annual contraction in mining and quarrying activity.
The report added that the manufacturing sub-index decreased by 8.8 percent, affected by a decline in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, which fell by 24.1 percent.
The decline comes as the US-Iran conflict disrupts oil production and shipping across the Middle East, with restrictions on key export routes weighing on regional energy flows.
In its latest report, GASTAT stated: “The sub-index of electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply activity increased by 9.4 percent, while the sub-index of water supply, sewerage, and waste management and remediation activities increased by 7.4 percent compared to August of the previous year.”
Monthly analysis
On a monthly basis, Saudi Arabia’s IPI declined by 14 percent, largely due to a 24 percent drop in mining and quarrying activity, a sector that carries significant weight in the Kingdom’s industrial output.
The manufacturing sub-index decreased by 3.2 percent, affected by declines in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products, which fell by 11.1 percent, and the manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, which decreased by 0.1 percent.
Compared with July 2026, the sub-index for electricity, gas, steam, and air conditioning supply increased by 7 percent, while the sub-index for water supply, sewerage, and waste management and remediation activities increased by 0.2 percent.
GASTAT further said the index of oil activities decreased by 33.6 percent in August compared with the same month of the previous year.
Compared with July, the index of oil activities decreased by 21.5 percent, while the index of non-oil activities increased by 1.4 percent.
The IPI measures changes in industrial output volumes based on the International Standard Industrial Classification framework. It covers mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas, steam and air-conditioning supply, as well as water supply, sewerage, waste management and remediation activities.
Impossible to have elections in Ukraine without a ceasefire, says Zelensky
Shortly after his speech, President Volodymyr Zelensky was asked about calls for elections in Ukraine.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump said "it's time for Ukraine to get a new president" as he responded to Zelensky's criticism of the US diesel deal with Russia.
Zelensky says that from a security standpoint, holding elections is "completely impossible" as there are attacks "day and night".
"A ceasefire is needed, a full ceasefire", Zelensky stresses, saying that if there is a truce in fighting then he is willing to engage with Ukraine's parliament and find "difficult solutions" to reach elections "very quickly".
As well as security concerns - due to the ongoing fighting since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 - the Ukrainian president notes that a significant proportion of the electorate would be excluded from voting if elections took place now.
He adds that "more than a million people" must vote, but "how will they vote while being on the frontline?"
The Kela 2-5 well in Tarim Oilfield's Kela 2 gas field in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region Photo: screenshot of CMG's report
Cumulative ethane production at the Tarim Oilfield in Northwest China's Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region has exceeded 4 million tons, reaching 4.08 million tons as of Saturday. This marks a new milestone in the deep processing of natural gas in the Tarim Basin, China Central Television (CCTV) reported, citing China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the oilfield's operator.
Ethane is an important component of natural gas and a core feedstock for ethylene production. Further processing of ethylene yields plastics, chemical fibers, and other industrial materials, making ethane a fundamental raw material for the modern petrochemical industry. The Tarim Energy Co, located in Xinjiang's Luntai County, has an annual natural gas processing capacity of 25 billion cubic meters (bcm).
The company's Lunnan natural gas deep-processing project is one of the largest single-unit natural gas deep-processing facilities at an oil and gas field in China, according to the CCTV report. The Tarim Energy Co operates under CNPC's Tarim Oilfield.
Since its commissioning, it has processed 56 bcm of natural gas, and produced 4.08 million tons of ethane and 2.8 million tons of light hydrocarbons and liquefied petroleum gas.
The project has also achieved independent and controllable production, with core equipment such as propane refrigeration machines, compressors, and high-speed regeneration gas compressors having all been replaced by domestically produced alternatives, an engineer at the Tarim Energy Co told CCTV.
In recent years, the Tarim Oilfield has advanced the "West-to-West" gas utilization strategy, promoting large-scale processing of natural gas resources and extending the downstream chemical industry chain.
To date, the oilfield has built a pipeline network of more than 5,400 kilometers around the Tarim Basin, supplying more. than 7 bcm of gas annually to southern Xinjiang.
Natural gas in the Tarim Basin is rich in ethane. The deep extraction of the heavier components from pipeline gas significantly increases the value of the natural gas resources and also provides China's ethylene industry with an independent, controllable and low-cost source of feedstock, the report said.Global Times
Venezuela aims to finalize 105 oil contracts by the end of 2026, with around 70% covering greenfield developments, as the country seeks to attract foreign investment into its energy sector, state-owned oil company PDVSA’s Chief Executive Hector Obregon said on Friday.
Speaking at a business event in Caracas, Obregon said the company had already signed 61 contracts, while another 44 remained pending.
The push comes as Venezuela reopens its energy sector to foreign investment following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro in January, with support from US President Donald Trump’s administration.
Venezuela’s oil production is expected to reach 1.5 million barrels per day (mmbbl/d) by the end of 2027, up from around 1.2 mmbbl/d currently, Obregon said.
Meanwhile, PDVSA’s refineries are processing approximately 350,000 mmbbl/d, a level Obregon said was sufficient to meet domestic gasoline demand as economic growth drives consumption higher.
The company aims to increase refining throughput to between 500,000 and 600,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) next year, he added, despite recurring fires, power disruptions, and operational outages at its refining facilities.
https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/pdvsa-chief-venezuela-targets-105-oil-contracts-by-end-2026/
Pennsylvania heating-oil customers are heading into the winter with prices near their highest level on record, creating new pressure for households already struggling with groceries, rent, insurance and other essential bills.
The statewide average residential heating-oil price was $5.833 a gallon as of Oct. 5, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That is just three cents below Pennsylvania’s record of $5.863 a gallon, set in November 2022.
For a household needing a 100-gallon delivery, that statewide average works out to about $583 before taxes and delivery-related charges. At the same point last October, the average was about $327 — a difference of more than $250 on the same 100-gallon fill.
The escalation comes after several relatively less expensive heating seasons. Pennsylvania’s early-October average was $2.07 a gallon in 2016, $3.15 in 2024 and $3.27 last year, according to EIA data.
Heating oil prices normally increase as colder weather drives up demand, especially in January and February. But this year’s increase is not simply seasonal.
EIA says global distillate fuel supplies are tight because of reduced refining activity, while U.S. demand for exports and the cost of imports have increased. Distillate fuel includes heating oil and diesel. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September and are expected to remain well below average through the winter.
That leaves customers exposed to both higher base prices and the possibility of sharper swings if a sustained cold stretch increases demand.
The EIA’s current winter outlook projects that households relying primarily on heating oil will see the largest increase in heating expenses among the major home-heating fuels — about 21% more than last winter. The agency projects a national average heating-oil price of $5.26 a gallon for the November-through-March season, though local prices can vary significantly by dealer, delivery area, taxes and contract terms. www.eia.gov
The forecast assumes a warmer-than-last-year winter in the Northeast, which could lower the number of gallons households burn. But families who cannot afford to fill their tanks before a cold snap may be especially vulnerable, as heating oil prices can react quickly to wholesale market changes.
Unlike regulated utility bills, heating-oil customers often pay the prevailing price when they order fuel. EIA estimates wholesale increases can pass through to retail customers in four to six weeks.
Spain's largest utility and the world's second-largest renewable energy company, Iberdrola, has pointed to regulatory uncertainty caused by changes in government as the reason for its withdrawal from South Korea's wind power market. The company explained that because renewable energy projects are long-term investments operating for at least 20 years, shifts in government policy became a critical variable affecting investment recovery.
Begoña Díaz González, Iberdrola's head of international business, said in an interview on the 30th of last month (local time) at the Basque Trade and Investment Agency in Bilbao, Spain's Basque Country: "Five years ago, we attempted to enter the South Korean wind power market in partnership with GS Energy, but we withdrew. The risk factor was that regulations could change with a shift in government."
Iberdrola signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with GS Energy in 2021 to cooperate on renewable energy projects and attempted to enter South Korea's onshore and offshore wind and solar power markets. The plan was to combine Iberdrola's renewable energy operational capabilities with GS Energy's domestic energy business foundation to jointly develop wind and solar projects, but the partnership failed to produce visible results.
Díaz González added: "At the time, South Korea's wind power market was in its early stages and the regulatory framework was unstable. In particular, there was significant uncertainty that the terms of power purchase agreements (PPAs) with the government could change depending on the administration."
A PPA is a contract in which a power producer and a buyer—such as the government, a public institution, or a corporation—agree in advance on the price and duration of electricity purchases. Large-scale infrastructure projects like wind farms typically recover their investment through stable contracts lasting 20 years or more. However, if a new administration changes the renewable energy certificate (REC) calculation method or preferential conditions, the long-term revenue model that power producers had anticipated can be undermined.
Iberdrola's withdrawal from South Korea was not an isolated decision. At the time, the company was simultaneously exploring business opportunities in multiple countries, including Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, Australia, and Argentina. It subsequently reorganized its portfolio around its core European market as well as Australia and Japan, where it had launched new projects.
https://finance.biggo.com/news/3117e85f-3dd8-4109-892b-0323ba736557
US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner proposed allowing Belarusian potash exports as part of a package of economic incentives intended to persuade Moscow to agree to a limited ceasefire in Ukraine. The New York Times reports this, citing officials familiar with confidential diplomatic negotiations.
According to the newspaper, the administration of Donald Trump launched a new diplomatic process in late September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Ukrainian officials were surprised by how far the US negotiators went in their proposals to Russia.
Washington presented three economic incentives in hopes of securing a limited ceasefire, either covering energy infrastructure or at sea. One of them involved reviving an earlier US proposal that would allow Belarus to export potash fertilizers.
The article does not specify which restrictions were to be lifted or under what conditions. The newspaper also does not give the exact date when the potash initiative was discussed or say whether representatives of Minsk took part in the talks.
Another proposal involved unfreezing billions of dollars in Russian sovereign assets held in the West. According to NYT sources, the money was considered an upfront incentive for partial ceasefires rather than a reward for implementing them. A similar initiative was discussed last year, when the proposal involved unfreezing up to $100 billion.
In addition, the Americans revived a plan to sell some of Lukoil’s assets to a group of Middle Eastern investors. According to the newspaper, some of the investors have business ties to the US negotiators.
Kyiv sought not to reject the proposals outright but demanded guarantees. In particular, the Ukrainian side proposed either providing Ukraine with an amount equal to the Russian assets being unfrozen or guaranteeing additional military assistance if the ceasefire was violated.
However, by October 10, the diplomatic efforts had failed to produce a breakthrough. Ukrainian officials said their delegation’s talks with Kushner and Witkoff in Miami ended without results.
The previous day, October 9, when those meetings were due to begin, Trump held a lengthy phone call with Vladimir Putin and announced that the United States would buy Russian diesel fuel. This was followed by the lifting of US sanctions on its exports until April. As the NYT notes, the Kremlin apparently offered no concessions in return.
That same evening, Putin’s adviser Yuri Ushakov said Moscow would consider when negotiations might resume. Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the diesel decision as weak and said the Ukrainian negotiating team was being used as a “smokescreen.”
New Delhi: Adani Enterprises Ltd's Kutch Copper Ltd plans to integrate 115 megawatts of renewable energy into its operations as it looks to reduce emissions, conserve water and improve resource efficiency at its copper refinery in Mundra, Gujarat.
The company currently operates a copper smelter with a capacity of 5,00,000 tonnes per annum and plans to expand it to 1 million tonnes, which would make it the world's largest single-location custom smelter, according to the company.
In its maiden sustainability report, Kutch Copper outlined plans to embed environmental, social and governance considerations into its operations as demand for the metal grows on the back of energy transition investments, electric mobility, power transmission and industrial expansion."
A key element of our sustainability strategy is the planned integration of 115 megawatts of renewable energy, a significant step towards reducing the carbon footprint of our operations and advancing long-term decarbonisation goals," the company said.
Copper is a key material for clean energy technologies and electrification, placing the metal at the centre of efforts to cut carbon emissions.
Kutch Copper said it aims to scale up production while integrating sustainability considerations into business decisions, operations and stakeholder engagement.
The company said it operates on nearly 100 per cent desalinated water and follows a zero-liquid-discharge approach to reduce dependence on freshwater and improve water conservation.
"We are currently treating 99.8 per cent of sulphur emissions, reflecting our commitment to adopting global standards in environmental stewardship and pollution control by leveraging advanced environmental technologies," Kutch Copper said in the report.
Beyond its manufacturing operations, the company said it is investing in community programmes focused on healthcare, education, livelihoods and social development.
The Adani Group has committed $1.2 billion to the project, according to the company.
The group sees the domestic copper industry as playing a key role in India's ambition to achieve carbon neutrality by 2070, supported by investment in green infrastructure and environmental management.
Bloomberg News | October 9, 2026 | 12:45 pm
(Image courtesy of Centinela mine.)
Workers at an Antofagasta Plc copper mine in Chile escalated a three-day strike Friday, with three union members starting a hunger strike as labor leaders sought to pressure the company back to the negotiating table.
“Don’t let your workers, men and women, have to resort to extreme measures like a hunger strike just to get you to sit down and talk,” José Manuel Díaz, head of Chile’s main labor federation, said to reporters at a protest camp outside Antofagasta’s corporate offices in Santiago.
Hunger strikes are an unusual form of protest in Chilean mining labor disputes, though there are precedents, including action by union leaders at Codelco operations in 2020, and a a 27-day hunger strike BHP Group’s Escondida mine in 2015.
Labor tensions in the mining industry have risen this year as workers seek a greater share of the windfall from surging prices. Supply disruptions, trade dislocations and growing demand sent copper to a record near $15,000 a ton last month and some analysts have predicted more gains.
In a separate action, mine supervisors at Escondida are in mandatory mediation with BHP to avert a strike that could begin Tuesday.
Díaz appealed directly to Chile’s billionaire Luksic family that controls Antofagasta. “We aren’t asking for privileges; we’re only asking for equal treatment and, above all, respect,” he said.
About 50 Centinela union members have set up camp in Santiago’s financial district, while workers are also demonstrating outside the mine in northern Chile.
Antofagasta declined to comment on the hunger strike.
Pay gaps
Unions say the main sticking point is differences in pay and benefits between employees performing the same jobs who belong to different unions. Union leaders said their priority is ending what they describe as discriminatory treatment, rather than the large signing bonuses that often feature in Chilean mining wage negotiations.
Antofagasta rejects claims that differences in pay and benefits amount to discrimination, saying they stem from separate collective agreements negotiated at different times. The company said it remains willing to continue talks and has offered a 2% real increase in base salaries and a cash bonus of almost $23,000 each.
The company has maintained its production expectations despite the walkout by 709 workers, representing about 22% of Centinela’s own workforce.
The unions say the strike’s impact will build over time, projecting copper output could fall by about 50% in November if the stoppage continues.
https://www.mining.com/web/antofagasta-miners-escalate-copper-strike-with-hunger-protest/
Editor Maria Ponnezhath
Published Oct 12, 2026, 06:34 AM
Investing.com -- The World Steel Association cut its global steel demand forecast for 2026 on Monday, citing weaker consumption in China and disruptions from the US-Israeli war with Iran.
The industry body now projects global steel demand will decline 0.1% in 2026, down from its April forecast of 0.3% growth.
Alfonso Hidalgo de Calcerrada, chair of World Steel’s economics committee, said the anticipated recovery is proving slower and more gradual than expected.
The association also reduced its 2027 demand growth forecast to 1.7% from 2.2%.
Steel demand in China is projected to fall 2% this year as the country’s property downturn continues for longer than the association had anticipated.
The outlook for Europe has also weakened. The association now expects steel demand in the European Union and Britain to fall 0.3% in 2026, reversing its previous forecast for growth of 1.3%, as a recovery in construction proves slower and more uneven than expected.
The slowdown is more pronounced in the Gulf, where steel demand is forecast to fall 11% in 2026 before rebounding 11.3% in 2027.
"What we observe (in the Gulf) is not the destruction of demand but its deferral, as project awards, construction starts and financing decisions are pushed back while the security situation remains unresolved," Hidalgo de Calcerrada said.
He added that steel demand in the Gulf should recover strongly once the uncertainty clears, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and supply chains normalize.
The association said India remains the world’s fastest-growing major steel market, with demand forecast to grow 7.9% in 2026 and 8% in 2027.
