Shell has agreed to buy Canadian shale producer ARC Resources for $16.4bn, five years after Europe’s biggest gas and oil producer sold its North American shale business.
The deal, which includes $13.6bn in cash and shares and taking on ARC’s $2.8bn debt, would be Shell’s biggest acquisition since it bought BG Group a decade ago.
ARC would add about 370,000 barrels a day of oil and gas to the London-listed giant’s production.
Shell said that the deal will boost production growth from 1% a year to 4% and add 2bn barrels to its proven and probable reserves.
Analysts and investors have previously said that Shell needed an acquisition, or exploration breakthrough, to bolster its production and reserves due to its ageing existing fields.
Wael Sawan, the chief executive of Shell since 2023, said the deal to buy Calgary-based ARC, which is focused on the Montney shale basin in British Columbia and Alberta, would make Canada a “heartland” for Shell. He added it would strengthen Shell’s “resource base for decades to come”.
“We are accessing uniquely positioned assets and welcoming colleagues that bring deep expertise which, combined with Shell’s strong basin level performance, provides a compelling proposition for shareholders,” he said.
The move marks a return to shale in North America, after Shell sold its US shale business in the Permian Basin in Texas to ConocoPhillips in 2021 for $9.5bn.
ARC mainly produces gas and condensate, a liquid that can be used in refineries to make ethylene, and Shell’s deal marks its latest push to become one of the largest players in liquefied natural gas.
In 2015, Shell acquired gas group BG, formerly the exploration arm of British Gas, for £47bn in what was then one of the largest takeovers in the oil sector for two decades.
The company also owns a 40% stake in LNG Canada, a $40bn liquefied fossil gas plant on the west coast of Canada.
Shell said that it either “owns” or is “involved with more than 30% of global LNG capacity, and is the world’s largest trader of the fuel.
Earlier this year, Sawan said that the company had spent about $2bn buying assets last year that would add about 40,000 barrelsa day of new production by the end of the decade.
“We think they’re paying a fair valuation given the deep inventory that ARC has and the likelihood of a counterbid to be low,” said Eric Nuttall, a senior portfolio manager at investment group Ninepoint Partners.
Shell, which is due to report its results for the first quarter on 7 May, is expected to report “significantly higher” profits from its trading desks due to the market volatility triggered by the Iran crisis.
Shares in Shell were down 1.2% on Monday afternoon.
The United States and European Union formalized plans Friday to jointly secure supplies of critical minerals as both regions seek alternatives to China's market dominance in materials essential for defense and technology sectors.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at reducing Western dependence on Beijing-controlled mineral supplies needed for semiconductors, electric vehicle batteries and weapons systems.
Rubio described the concentration of critical mineral resources in one or two locations as creating unacceptable risks for both economies. The agreement represents an unusual collaboration between the Trump administration and EU leadership, given the president's frequent criticism of European policies.
China has repeatedly demonstrated its willingness to weaponize mineral exports during diplomatic tensions, restricting access to materials that power modern industries. The country controls most global rare earth reserves and maintains near-total dominance over separation and refining operations.
Sefcovic said the partnership will span the complete mineral supply chain, covering everything from initial exploration and extraction through processing, refining, recycling and recovery operations. He emphasized that reducing dependencies represents a core economic security priority for both partners.
The EU official drew parallels to Europe's painful experience with energy dependence, noting how reliance on single suppliers created expensive vulnerabilities that policymakers want to avoid repeating with critical minerals.
The agreement establishes mechanisms for coordinating subsidies, stockpiles and research investments between the two economic blocs. Both sides will explore setting minimum pricing standards to prevent market flooding by low-cost competitors seeking to maintain monopolistic positions.
Officials also plan to develop joint technical standards that could streamline trade flows across Western nations while creating barriers for non-aligned suppliers.
The US Trade Representative's office identified this framework as the primary vehicle for developing a broader binding agreement among allied nations on critical minerals trade policies.
Rubio noted that American and European markets represent the largest global consumers of these materials, giving the partnership significant leverage in reshaping supply chains away from single-source dependencies.
The Trump administration has pursued similar arrangements with Mexico, Japan and Australia as part of a broader strategy to build alternative mineral supply networks among democratic allies.
United States President Donald Trump’s national security team is reviewing an Iranian proposal aimed at halting its joint war with Israel, reopening the Strait of Hormuz and delaying negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear programme until after the war ends.
The White House confirmed Trump met his national security advisers on Monday to discuss the plan, while US media reports said he was dissatisfied with the proposal because it postpones talks on Iran’s nuclear activities.
The Reuters news agency, citing an official briefed on the meeting, said Trump wants the nuclear issue addressed at the start of any negotiations. CNN, citing two sources familiar with the matter, said Trump was unlikely to accept the proposal, reporting that lifting the US blockade of Iranian ports without resolving concerns over Tehran’s nuclear programme would weaken Washington’s leverage.
The proposal comes amid uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said Tehran will not enter negotiations while the US maintains restrictions on Iranian ports. Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary ceasefire on April 8 after more than a month of fighting that began with joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran.
The truce, mediated by Pakistan, has since come under strain because of disputes over maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz and US measures targeting Iranian ports. A parallel conflict involving Israel and Lebanon has also added to regional tensions.
Iran signals openness to diplomacy
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg on Monday and said Tehran was considering a US request to restart negotiations.
Araghchi said he welcomed engagement with Russia at the “highest level” at a time of regional instability.
“Recent events have evidenced the depth and strength of our strategic partnership,” Araghchi wrote on X. “As our relationship continues to grow, we are grateful for solidarity and welcome Russia’s support for diplomacy.”
Reporting from Tehran, Al Jazeera’s Almigdad Alruhaid said Araghchi was expected to return to Iran after meetings with regional partners.
“He had travelled to Pakistan, Oman and Russia. We know there’s a strategic partnership between Iran and these countries. We know Oman is Iran’s traditional mediator,” Alruhaid said.
“But the Iranians are trying to say that they are open to diplomacy. They are sending messages. They are not closing any channels and not closing any doors for diplomacy.”
Calls to reopen Strait of Hormuz
Dozens of countries have called for the “urgent and unimpeded reopening” of the Strait of Hormuz, while United Nations chief Antonio Guterres warned the standoff could trigger a global food emergency.
Reporting from the UN, New York, Al Jazeera’s Kristen Saloomey said diplomats repeatedly appealed for de-escalation during a Security Council meeting.
She said speakers highlighted the disruption caused by thousands of stranded cargo vessels and tens of thousands of maritime workers unable to move through the waterway.
Guterres also warned that shipping disruptions were hitting vulnerable countries hardest, with about 20 percent of global oil and natural gas supplies passing through the strait.
Bahrain, which requested the meeting with support from dozens of countries affected by higher fuel prices, described the closure as a violation of international law and called for attacks on ships to end.
“No action was taken by the Security Council … A past resolution that called for reopening the strait was blocked by China and Russia, with Moscow blaming the US and Israel for their ‘unprovoked attack’ on Iran as the source of the problem,” Saloomey added.
Oil Prices Surge Past $100 Amid Strait of Hormuz Closure – Defensive and Offensive Investment Strategies
Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, has climbed from approximately $70 per barrel earlier this year to over $100 per barrel in recent days, according to a report published on April 27, 2026. The source notes that oil prices may stay elevated for the remainder of this year, even if a peace agreement is reached, because of the time required to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The process involves clearing sea mines and restarting oil wells that were shut down due to the war, which could take months.
Defensive Positioning
Higher oil prices are already impacting several sectors. Airlines have begun canceling some future flights because of high jet fuel costs and expected shortages. Rising gasoline prices could also reduce consumer spending on discretionary items such as travel and entertainment. If energy costs continue to increase, the global economy faces a greater risk of recession, the source states.
To prepare for a potential downturn, the source advises reducing exposure to cyclical stocks. Airlines, hotels, and non-discretionary retailers—including restaurants—face the highest risks due to higher fuel costs affecting their operations or customer demand. The report also recommends adding defensive stocks, such as non-discretionary retailers, consumer staples, utilities, and blue chip dividend stocks. One suggested option is the Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity ETF (NYSEMKT: SCHD), which holds 100 high-quality dividend stocks, including major consumer staples and healthcare companies known for paying durable, growing dividends.
Offensive Opportunities
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to have a lasting effect on oil markets. The source explains that oil supplies will not return to normal immediately after the strait reopens, and demand is likely to stay elevated as countries replenish their national emergency oil stockpiles, which are currently being drained to cover the shortfall.
Investors can seek to benefit from higher oil prices by investing in oil stocks. The source highlights Chevron (NYSE: CVX) as a top option. The oil company only needs crude to average $50 per barrel to cover its capital spending plan and dividend this year, and with prices at double that level, it is generating substantial free cash flow.
(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lifted oil-price forecasts as the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz spurs “extreme” inventory draws.
Brent is set to average $90 a barrel in the fourth quarter, up from a previous outlook for $80, analysts including Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby said in an April 27 note. The figure for that period is now “nearly $30 higher than before the Hormuz shock,” they said, adding to recent revisions.
“We estimate that 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record 11 to 12 million barrel-a-day pace in April,” they said. Given that such “extreme inventory draws are not sustainable, even sharper demand losses could be required if the supply shock persists longer,” they added.
The global oil market has been upended by the Iran war, with a double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz cutting transits through the key chokepoint to near zero. With millions of barrels of daily crude supply shut-in across the region, Brent has rallied almost 50% since the start of the conflict in late February, threatening to stoke global inflation while stunting growth.
“We now assume a normalization in Gulf exports by end-June, versus mid-May prior, and a slower Gulf production recovery,” the analysts said. “The economic risks are larger than our crude base-case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined-product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.”
Given the disruption, Goldman said there would be a deficit of 9.6 million barrels a day this quarter, compared with a surplus last year.
Wall Street peer Morgan Stanley said oil exports from the Persian Gulf had slumped by 14.2 million barrels a day because of the Hormuz closure, according to a note from analysts including Martijn Rats. As a result, global stockpiles were estimated to have dropped by 4.8 million barrels a day, with weaker demand making up part of the difference, the bank said.
“Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market has mostly existed in two states at once: closed to most traffic, but not entirely; expected to be opened at any moment, but little change so far,” they said. “The shock is large, the data is incomplete, and the recovery is conditional,” they added.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-hikes-oil-forecasts-again-064448566.html
Trillion Energy has called the current oil price surge a structural crisis rather than a temporary disruption, citing supply route risks including the Strait of Hormuz. The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market prices WTI hitting $160 by month’s end at 1% YES.
Market reaction
Traders are not buying the structural crisis framing, at least not on the timeline that matters here. With only six days left before expiration, the market sits at 1% YES on thin volume. A $695 order would move the price by five percentage points, which tells you how little liquidity is behind this contract.
Why it matters
Trillion Energy’s argument that supply disruptions and geopolitical pressure will keep prices elevated is worth tracking even if the April 30 deadline is too soon for most traders to act on. If the structural thesis is correct, the question is timing, not direction. At the current price of 1¢, a YES share pays $1 if crude oil surpasses its all-time high by April 30, a 100x return. That payout requires belief in a sharp escalation in Middle Eastern tensions or a major supply cut within days.
What to watch
OPEC+ production cut announcements, any shift in the US-Iran relationship, or unexpected supply disruptions could change the math here. Without one of those catalysts, the contract will almost certainly expire at zero.
By Irina Slav - Apr 28, 2026, 2:00 AM CDT
The first LNG vessel to cross the Strait of Hormuz since the end of February has exited the chokepoint and is currently nearing India’s shores, Bloomberg reported, citing tanker-tracking data.
The tanker, Mubaraz, is sailing under a Liberian flag. According to MarineTraffic data, it is still in the Persian Gulf but the website reports the latest information it had on it was from late March. Per the data cited by Bloomberg, the Mubaraz loaded at the UAE’s Das Island and has successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz, after idling in the Persian Gulf until March 31.
On that date, the Mubaraz stopped transmitting its location, which has become common practice for vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz since the war between the U.S. and Israel, and Iran began at the end of February. According to the Bloomberg report, the tanker is signaling a Chinese port as its final destination. It should reach that destination in mid-May.
The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz stranded all Qatari and UAE supplies of LNG. Additionally, Qatar’s LNG capacity has been severely damaged by Iranian missile attacks, which forced state firm QatarEnergy to declare force majeure on contracts and start quantifying the losses.
Over the past month, Asia’s imports of LNG have plunged to their lowest level since the Covid pandemic crashed demand in June 2020, as the Middle East war trapped supply and pushed prices to multi-year highs.
The 30-day moving average of net LNG shipments to Asia plummeted below 600,000 tons this weekend, ship-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg showed earlier this month. This was the lowest one-month moving average of LNG arrivals into Asia since June 2020, according to the data.
The news of a loaded LNG tanker being allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, if confirmed, would be a rare piece of good news for energy flows out of the Persian Gulf.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/First-LNG-Tanker-Breaks-Hormuz-Blockade.html
New Delhi, Apr 27 (PTI) India will be the second country in the world after Russia to operate a commercial-level fast breeder reactor (FBR), said Union minister Jitendra Singh on Monday.
The minister was referring to the indigenously designed 500 MWe Prototype FBR at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, which achieved first criticality on April 6.
“This reactor marks the start of the second stage of India’s three-stage nuclear power programme, using uranium-plutonium mixed oxide fuel to produce more fuel than it consumes. With this achievement, India moves toward leveraging its vast thorium reserves in the third stage of its nuclear strategy,” said Singh.
The science and technology minister made the comments while addressing a workshop of MPs and MLAs on small modular reactors.
Currently, Russia is the only country operating commercial FBRs, with India in the advanced stage of commissioning its own.
While several nations have historically developed or operated experimental fast reactors, specifically the USA, the UK, France, Japan, Germany, and China, most of these programmes have shut down.
Singh said, “Only a limited number of countries have made advancements in fast breeder reactor technology, placing India in a distinguished global position in advanced nuclear capability.” Nuclear energy will play a crucial role in India’s clean energy transition and long-term sustainability goals, particularly in achieving the target of 100 GW nuclear power capacity by 2047, added the minister.
We just covered the Billionaire Howard Marks’ 10 Stock Picks with Huge Upside Potential and AngloGold Ashanti plc (NYSE:AU) ranks 8th on this list.
AngloGold Ashanti plc (NYSE:AU) has featured in the 13F portfolio of Oaktree Capital Management since the third quarter of 2023. Back then, this position comprised over 5.4 million shares. The fund added to this stake by 8%, 2%, and 6% in the coming quarters, growing the holding to over 6.3 million shares. Thereafter, it started shedding the shares. Filings for the fourth quarter of 2025 show that the fund owned 3.8 million shares in the company, down more than 8% compared to filings for the third quarter of 2025. The firm operates as a gold mining company in Africa, Australia, and the Americas. It explores for gold, as well as by-products, including silver and sulphuric acid. The flagship property includes the 100% owned Geita mine located in the Lake Victoria goldfields of the Geita region in northwestern Tanzania.
Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight Rating on Blue Owl Capital (OWL)
Elite investors have been rewarding AngloGold Ashanti plc (NYSE:AU) for its rapid deleveraging. In its February 2026 and April 2026 financial updates, AngloGold revealed a massive balance sheet shift. The company moved from $567 million in net debt at the end of 2024 to a $879 million net cash position by early 2026. Total liquidity now sits at $4.4 billion, including $2.9 billion in cash and equivalents. Institutional accumulation surged following a record-breaking 2025 performance that set the stage for 2026 growth. AngloGold delivered a record $6.3 billion in adjusted EBITDA in 2025, a year-over-year increase of 129%.
The big jump in metal-making profits reflects a broader reflation underway across the Chinese economy.
The stronger market backdrop has fed a strong reporting season for Chinese metals giants that are among the world’s biggest producers. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
CHINA’S metals industry began this year with its biggest profits in at least a decade as soaring prices for aluminium and copper handed the sector a major boost.
Total profits for smelting & pressing of non-ferrous metals across the country more than doubled to reach 142 billion yuan (S$26 billion) in the first quarter, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released on Monday (Apr 27). That’s the highest level for the period in data going back to 2016.
Metals prices rocketed higher at the start of the year, with copper and gold hitting records and aluminium surging to its highest since 2022. The Iran war also fired up prices of sulphuric acid from March, delivering a big and continuing windfall for Chinese copper smelters that sell the industrial chemical as a by-product.
The big jump in metal-making profits reflects a broader reflation underway across the Chinese economy, with earnings growth across all industrial enterprises picking up pace in the first quarter. Intense competition and overcapacity kept profits subdued in most manufacturing sectors over the past four years.
Profitability at China’s aluminium smelters was already elevated before supply turmoil in the Middle East sent prices much higher. Estimated margins for smelting in China grew to an all-time high of 8,500 yuan a tonne in March, according to an index from Bloomberg Intelligence.
The stronger market backdrop has fed a strong reporting season for Chinese metals giants that are among the world’s biggest producers. Aluminum Corp of China’s first-quarter net income was the biggest in at least a decade, while Zijin Mining Group, mostly a miner rather than a smelter, made net income of more than 20 billion yuan for the first time.
Major copper smelters such as Jiangxi Copper are enjoying a boost from an unprecedented spike in sulphuric acid prices that is more than offsetting persistently low treatment fees. Still, Beijing’s decision to halt exports of the acid may cap gains.
For every tonne of copper production, Chinese smelters can now earn more than 5,000 yuan from sulphuric acid, boosting their willingness to operate, Yang Changhua, chief analyst with researcher Beijing Antaike Information, told a conference on Apr 16. That helped fuel record production of refined copper in China in March. BLOOMBERG
As aluminium shortage fears have loomed globally in recent weeks, Nasdaq-listed Century Aluminum has announced restarted production in the second potline of its Norðurál smelter, in Iceland – several months earlier than planned.
Employees have energized the first pots in the second potline and will continue restarting the remaining pots on an accelerated schedule to reach close to full production by the end of July.
Potline two represents about two-thirds of the plant’s total capacity.
The restart comes after specialists, collaborating with the designers and the manufacturer of the equipment, made repairs to the transformers following an unanticipated failure. Permanent replacement transformers have been ordered and will be installed upon expected delivery this fall.
“We’re proud of our Grundartangi team, who worked tirelessly to resume production under difficult circumstances,” says Century Aluminum president and CEO Jesse Gary.
He commends the team on site’s resolve and resilience for having undertaken repairs to resume production faster.
Century Aluminum also reached first production of hot metal from its expanded Mt Holly plant in South Carolina earlier this month, which followed major plant expansions. This plant will reach full production capacity by the end of June, adding 10% to the US’ total primary aluminium production capacity.
“Coupled with our recent production expansion at Mt Holly, in the US, Norðurál’s restart reinforces Century’s commitment to meeting our customers’ needs with the urgency the marketplace demands,” Gary concludes.
April 28, 2026 — 3:44pm
Lindian Resources has moved to bulletproof the downstream strategy for its 51 per cent-owned Sareco mixed rare earths concentrate facility in Kazakhstan, securing a long-term, low-cost domestic supply of sulphuric acid just as global markets prepare for a massive supply shock.
The company has established a supply arrangement with the Stepnogorsk sulphuric acid plant (SSAP). This regional heavyweight and state-backed producer forms part of Kazakhstan’s sovereign wealth fund, Samruk-Kazyna.
The move looks like a masterstroke in timing, coming just days before China is expected to implement a near-total ban on sulphuric acid exports from May.
Industry reports suggest the Chinese ban will yank some 4.65 million tonnes of sulphuric acid from the global export market, a move that appears likely to send prices skyrocketing and leave import-dependent regions such as Chile, Indonesia, Africa and the Middle East scrambling for supply.
In contrast, Lindian has locked in a domestic source within the same industrial area as its Sareco processing facility. The SSAP plant currently churns out about 180,000 tonnes of sulphuric acid per annum; however, it is already undergoing an expansion to double that capacity to 360,000 tonnes annually.
The financial upside for Lindian looks compelling. Recent pricing for sulphuric acid in Kazakhstan sits between US$100 (A$140) and US$130 (A$180) per tonne – significantly cheaper than the A$150 to A$300 per tonne rates typically seen in the domestic market.
This price advantage, combined with the logistical benefits of being near the source, provides Lindian with a formidable cost buffer against global price volatility.
Lindian Resources executive director Zac Komur said: “Access to sulphuric acid supply in Kazakhstan is an important part of Lindian Resources’ downstream strategy. With a state-backed supplier and competitive pricing, this supports reagent availability and cost stability.”
Notably, the new sulphuric acid supply deal comes on the back of Lindian’s recent strong metallurgical results. Independent test work by the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation confirmed that monazite concentrate from the company’s flagship Kangankunde project in Malawi “cracks” cleanly using a conventional sulphuric acid bake and leach flowsheet.
The tests delivered impressive recoveries of up to 94 per cent total rare earth oxides and showcased a whopping 97 per cent neodymium-praseodymium recovery rate. Additionally, reaction times were fast, with more than 90 per cent of the rare earths dissolving within the first hour.
The results also showed a lean appetite for sulphuric acid, with consumption ranging from an impressively low rate of just 1.2 to 1.4 tonnes per tonne of rare earths concentrate.
While the Kazakh processing facility is a key pillar of Lindian’s downstream ambitions, the company’s cornerstone project remains its world-class Kangankunde rare earths project in Malawi.
Stage one construction at Kangankunde is well underway, with the project designed to produce a premium 55 per cent total rare earth oxides concentrate at operating costs in the lowest global quartile.
The project is fully funded post a recent hefty A$100 million placement and a strategic tie-up with Iluka Resources.
Under the deal, Iluka provided a $A$32 million debt facility to Lindian, with Lindian agreeing to supply 6000 tonnes per annum of rare earth monazite to Iluka’s Eneabba refinery in WA for 15 years.
Lindian also holds significant bauxite assets in Guinea and Tanzania, providing further depth to its critical minerals portfolio.
With the sulphuric acid supply secured and the processing pathway proven, Lindian’s next steps will focus on continuing the construction of stage one at Kangankunde and further technical optimisation of its Kazakh downstream facility.
It’s been a savvy piece of corporate manoeuvring by Lindian. While others in the rare earths sector face a looming sulphuric acid shortage, the company has successfully insulated itself through a strategic, state-backed partnership.
By de-risking its processing and securing vital supply lines, the company looks to have gained a clear cost advantage. With construction moving quickly in Malawi, Lindian appears well-positioned to transition to a major downstream player in the critical minerals market.
Today, DCE iron ore futures showed an N-shaped trend, with the most-traded contract I2609 closing at 786 yuan/mt, unchanged from the previous closing price. Spot prices remained stable compared to the previous day as of now. Traders were active in quoting, while steel mills made fewer inquiries; overall spot cargo trading was sluggish.
Last week, according to SMM statistics, global iron ore shipments reached 32.27 million mt, up only 2% from the previous period; meanwhile, China's iron ore port arrivals reached 24.31 million mt, surging 4.11 million mt (20%) WoW. Shipments from Brazil and Australia showed clear signs of recovery from the impact of weather factors in the previous period. Therefore, in the short term, there is some room for growth on the supply side, which, combined with inventory at a relatively high level, exerts downward pressure on iron ore prices. With expectations that hot metal production will stay high, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at highs in the short term.
India’s steel sector faces mounting energy security risks as 90 percent of its metallurgical coal is imported and a further 64 percent of planned capacities are also coal-based, according to a report issued by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) on Monday.
The report showed that diversification towards US coal supplies offers only limited relief in a globally interconnected and volatile market.
India’s target of reaching 300 million mt per year of crude steel capacity by 2030 is set to drive a sharp increase in met coal demand. Furthermore, 64 percent of new steel capacities will also use the coal-based BF route.
At an average requirement of 770 kg of met coal per mt of steel, the planned BF capacity alone could require an additional 140 million mt of coal, nearly doubling current supply levels, the report said.
Despite policy efforts to boost domestic production, including “Mission Coking Coal”, India’s reserves remain largely unsuitable for steelmaking due to high ash content, leaving the country reliant on imports for about 90 percent of its met coal needs, it added.
The United States has emerged as India’s second-largest supplier of met coal, with its share rising from about eight percent in 2020-21 to roughly 15 percent in 2024-25.
However, the IEEFA said that that shifting suppliers does not shield India from global price volatility. Australia continues to dominate seaborne met coal exports, accounting for nearly half of global supply and acting as the key price setter.
Logistical and structural factors continue to limit the competitiveness of US coal. Shipments from the US take 40-45 days to reach India, compared to 20-25 days from Australia, increasing freight costs and supply chain uncertainty. While US coal may be cheaper on a free-on-board basis, higher transportation costs often erode this advantage.
Freight economics are a key factor. The longer distance for US cargoes means higher freight costs, now exacerbated by the West Asia crisis and the impact on shipping fuel, the report said.
The IEEFA argues that reducing dependence on imported coal is essential for long-term energy security, while it recommends accelerating scrap-based electric arc furnace steelmaking and scaling up green hydrogen-based production.
