6 October 2026, 09:23
Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has won the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections, positioning himself strongly to continue in the race for the presidency. According to reports, he finished ahead of current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, marking an unexpected victory for Brazil’s right wing.
This victory comes in a context where the Bolsonaro family has secured four public office seats, including that of senator for Michelle Bolsonaro, the former president’s wife. This is her first time running for public office, while Flávio will face Lula in the second round of the elections.
Flávio Bolsonaro’s success is seen as a sign of growing support for the right in Latin America. It has also sparked calls for the release of Jair Bolsonaro, who is currently under house arrest for attempting a coup. A victory for Flávio would further strengthen the family’s position in Brazilian politics, making it a significant dynasty in the country.
The Bolsonaro family has a long history in politics, and with this victory, they have emphasized their influence on Brazil’s political scene. Flávio has managed to garner more votes than his father in past elections; however, some analysts view this as more of a vote against Lula than a strong preference for Flávio.
If Flávio Bolsonaro wins in the second round, it would mark a significant shift in Brazilian politics and increase the Bolsonaro family’s influence in the country’s governance.
Global oil stockpiles have fallen to critically low levels, leaving markets exposed to further supply pressure unless the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens, Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said.
“Until Hormuz fully re-opens and confidence returns, the crude reality is that pressure at both ends of the barrel will intensify,” Nasser said at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Monday. “While the squeeze on crude is serious, refined fuel prices have risen even more sharply.”
Nasser said global oil consumption continues to rise and countries will need additional supplies for at least the next two years as they rebuild inventories. This could add at least 2 million barrels per day to demand, or more if governments increase their emergency stockpiles.
When the US-Iran war began, global oil stocks stood at about 10 billion barrels, Nasser said. That figure has since fallen below 6 billion barrels, with only about 10% practically available because of technical restrictions.
Nasser said releasing part of the remaining stocks could give economies more time but would not resolve the supply-demand imbalance. Gulf producers are increasing production and exports, bringing crude flows close to prewar levels.
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait have also been using their own tankers to move crude through the Strait of Hormuz, which has remained partly obstructed since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February.
Earlier in September, Saudi Arabia restarted Yanbu crude and refined-product loadings after reopening the East-West Pipeline. Kpler estimated throughput at 2.65 million barrels per day, with a return to about 5.5 million bpd expected to take another month.
https://egyptoil-gas.com/news/aramco-ceo-says-global-oil-supply-buffer-is-scarily-thin/
(WO) — Baker Hughes has signed two agreements aimed at supporting oil and gas development and expanding natural gas infrastructure in Venezuela, including a strategic alliance with state-owned PDVSA focused on gas production, processing and potential LNG exports.
Under the alliance, Baker Hughes will work with PDVSA, Lindsayca and Fulcrum LNG to identify and advance infrastructure projects across Venezuela's natural gas value chain. The companies plan to evaluate upgrades needed to support gas production, processing, transportation and commercialization.
Near-term efforts will focus on infrastructure needed to meet PDVSA's internal gas requirements and increase domestic natural gas supplies, including for power generation. Over the longer term, the companies plan to evaluate new open-access midstream and LNG infrastructure that could enable Venezuelan producers to monetize additional gas resources and potentially export LNG.
"A central objective of these partnerships is the development of an integrated gas value chain capable of transforming Venezuela's substantial natural gas resources into reliable domestic supply and future export opportunities," said Lorenzo Simonelli, chairman and CEO of Baker Hughes.
The alliance remains a cooperation framework rather than a commitment to specific projects. Individual developments will require separate definitive agreements, internal approvals and compliance with applicable U.S. sanctions and export-control requirements, including authorizations from the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control.
Separately, Baker Hughes recently signed a memorandum of understanding with New Stratus Energy to support potential future oil and gas developments in Venezuela. The collaboration could incorporate Baker Hughes technologies across subsurface evaluation, drilling, production, processing, digital operations, emissions reduction, power generation and LNG.
Baker Hughes said the two agreements could provide a framework connecting upstream resource development with midstream infrastructure, gas monetization and eventual LNG commercialization.
The company has operated in Venezuela's energy sector for more than 60 years. Its existing installed base in the country includes more than 1,200 oil production systems, artificial lift equipment, flexible pipe infrastructure and approximately 240 turbomachinery units across 23 sites.
Over 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity has been disabled by Ukrainian attacks, the Defense Ministry reported on Oct. 4.
Ukraine has systematically targeted Russia's oil and gas infrastructure in long-range strikes, dramatically increasing its campaign against oil refineries in the past two years. Kyiv considers refineries valid military targets, as they supply both fuel and funds to the Russian armed forces.
Defense Minister Yevhen Khmara reported on the consequences of Ukraine's strategy in an update on Oct. 4. Citing analysts from Ukraine's intelligence services, Defense Ministry, and General Staff, Khmara said that over 51% of Russia's oil refining capacity has been disabled.
"This is the result of carefully planned, systematic, and comprehensive actions aimed at crippling the Russian war machine and destroying its military-economic potential," Khmara said.
"Fifty-one percent of the damaged oil refining capacity is a significant blow to the enemy's economy, to its ability to wage aggression, and to supply its military formations."
The Defense Ministry listed recent attacks at Russia's Moscow, Yaroslavl, Kirishi, Perm, Ilsky, Saratov, and Syzran refineries in its report.
The ministry's assessment marks an increase from the 45% drop in Russian refining capacity reported by Ukraine's General Staff on Sept. 21.
It also follows a decree from Russian President Vladimir Putin, signed Sept. 28, restricting access to data on the country's oil refineries and energy exports amid Ukraine's escalating deep strikes.
Ukraine's long-range strike drones and missiles have proved capable of regularly reaching targets more than 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukrainian-controlled territory. The military reported a new record on Sept. 9, after a Fire Point FP-1 drone struck a Russian gas facility 3,200 kilometers (1,988 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
The Defense Ministry reported on Oct. 4 that Ukraine tripled its production and procurement of long-range strike drones in 2026 — and that it hopes to keep growing.
"This is not the limit," the ministry said. "We will continue to scale up our long-range strike capabilities."
An increasingly viable source of new supply is coming from an unexpected source: energy-transition infrastructure itself
Gavin Maguire | Reuters News
Published 5 October 2026, 06:01 (GMT+1)
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
LITTLETON, Colorado - The shift toward electric vehicles, renewables, battery storage and expanded power grids is driving a surge in demand for copper, rare earths, silver and other materials. But the electrification push is starting to create its own supply, too.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), clean energy technologies require far larger quantities of minerals than conventional energy systems, and demand linked to the energy transition is only set to grow over the coming decades.
That accelerating demand contrasts with a supply outlook for key materials which is constrained by new mines, refining capacity and processing infrastructure that can take years to develop.
That conundrum is forcing governments and companies to rethink where future supplies will come from.
An increasingly viable source of new supply is coming from an unexpected source: energy-transition infrastructure itself.
Around the world, breakthroughs in recycling are turning old batteries, retired solar panels, decommissioned wind turbines and aging grid equipment into increasingly valuable sources of the same materials needed to sustain energy-transition momentum.
What began as a waste-management challenge is evolving into a strategic industrial opportunity, as legacy energy-transition components become a resource base in their own right.
BATTERY BASE
Batteries offer the clearest example of the growing importance of recycling to the supply picture.
For years, concerns about future battery supply focused on the availability of lithium, nickel, cobalt and graphite from mines.
But attention is now shifting toward recovering those same materials from batteries already in circulation.
US company Redwood Materials says it recovers more than 95% of lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper from spent batteries and manufacturing scrap.
The company processes more than 20 gigawatt-hours of lithium-ion batteries annually and produces more than 60,000 metric tons of critical materials each year.
It describes those recovered materials as a growing domestic source of supply that can reduce dependence on new mining and imports.
With the first generation of large-scale EV batteries now reaching maturity, the volume of available batteries should continue to climb. This, in turn, may encourage more widespread recycling that can reduce demand for fresh battery components.
The impact on global supply could be meaningful. Between 20% and 30% of global lithium, nickel and cobalt demand could come from stepped-up recycling efforts by 2050, according to the IEA.
In Europe, which has some of the world's most ambitious materials recycling policies, researchers have estimated that roughly 15% of lithium, nickel and manganese and around 25% of cobalt supplies could come from recycling sources by 2030.
SOLAR'S OWN WASTE STREAM
Solar energy faces a similar opportunity.
The industry is adding generating capacity at record rates, but is also consuming large quantities of silver, silicon and other materials to manufacture arrays.
Recycling efforts have so far focused mainly on recovering glass and aluminium from retired panels; other materials have often remained difficult or uneconomic to recover.
But a series of recent technological breakthroughs is improving the economics of solar-panel recycling, allowing valuable materials such as silver and silicon to be recovered more efficiently.
Researchers at the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) recently demonstrated a laser-assisted recycling process capable of recovering silicon with purity levels of up to 99.998% and silver with purity of 99.7%, while achieving recovery yields of roughly 97%.
In Australia, researchers at the University of Newcastle have demonstrated nearly 100% silver recovery from end-of-life solar panels using flotation techniques already familiar to the mining industry that are commercially scalable.
Such high recovery rates of some of the most sought-after components of solar arrays have the potential to elevate solar recycling from a side hustle into a lucrative industry.
Indeed, energy consultants at Rystad Energy estimate that the total value of recyclable materials from solar panels could rise from around $2 billion currently to roughly $80 billion by 2050 given the scale of global deployment of solar systems and the expected increase in materials prices.
By 2035, as much as 8% of the polysilicon, 11% of the aluminum, 2% of the copper and 21% of the silver needed for solar panel production could come from recycling panels installed in 2020, according to Rystad research.
Future solar deployment may therefore increasingly not need to draw on newly produced silver and silicon but instead look to materials harvested from earlier generations of solar farms.
WIND TURBINES FEEDING THE CEMENT SECTOR
Wind power is experiencing its own recycling breakthrough.
A wind turbine can already be substantially recycled, but the blades have long represented a technical challenge because of the composite materials used in their construction.
However, recent advances suggest a solution is coming into view that could emerge as a boon for cement makers and construction firms looking to reduce their own carbon footprints.
French multinational Veolia has developed a process that shreds previously unrecyclable fibreglass blades into pellets that can replace coal, silica and limestone in cement kilns.
US company REGEN Fiber applies a similar process to create reinforcement fibers for the concrete, asphalt and composite industries.
While the output of these processes does not produce inputs for the renewable energy industry itself, the recycled materials can displace significant volumes of virgin raw materials in the cement and construction sectors.
An analysis by Quantis US, an environmental consulting firm, found that feeding a shredded 7-metric-ton blade into a cement kiln reduces coal use by 5 tons while avoiding 2.7 tons of silica, 1.9 tons of limestone and nearly 1 ton of additional minerals.
In turn, recycled turbine blades can reduce demand for energy-intensive mining, quarrying and materials processing, lowering the overall resource and emissions footprint of the energy transition.
GRID MINING
One of the least discussed recycling opportunities lies within the power grid itself.
Countries are embarking on massive grid-expansion programs to accelerate renewables generation, electrify transportation and support rising electricity demand. Those investments require enormous quantities of copper, aluminium and steel.
Much of the discussion around these plans focuses on where those materials will come from, overlooking the vast stocks already embedded within aging infrastructure.
Utilities are replacing transformers, substations and transmission equipment that in many cases contain large volumes of high-quality copper, aluminium, steel and other key components.
Recycling programs are increasingly recovering these materials and returning them to industrial supply chains.
US steelmaker Nucor operates specialized recovery facilities that process retired equipment to double their volume of reclaimed copper and non-ferrous metals, which are used in the construction of new transmission components.
That opportunity will grow as grid modernization accelerates. Every retired transformer and transmission asset represents a concentrated source of refined materials that can be redeployed into the next generation of electricity infrastructure.
FEEDING ITSELF
The common theme across batteries, solar panels, wind turbines and grid equipment is that the energy transition is creating its own expanding inventory of recoverable materials.
Mining will remain indispensable, of course. Global demand growth remains too large for recycling alone to meet.
But the industry is increasingly discovering that future supply does not depend exclusively on what can be extracted from the ground.
As concerns grow over critical-mineral shortages and supply-chain security, the most important new mine of the energy-transition era may prove to be the one that has already been built.
(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)
https://www.zawya.com/en/insights/the-energy-transition-is-starting-to-feed-itself-maguire-1486854
A year-long study has observed millions of birds migrating across the North Sea to measure the threat of offshore wind farms.
Europe leads the world in offshore wind energy, with more than 30 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity across the continent – enough to power more than 26 million homes annually.
Earlier this year, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway and the UK committed to deliver 100GW of joint offshore wind projects across shared North Sea waters by 2050.
The €9.5 billion plan, known as the Hamburg Declaration, aims to turn the North Sea into the world’s “largest clean energy reservoir” and mobilise €1 trillion of capital in Europe.
But is our path to a fossil fuel-free future jeopardising birds that are already plummeting in number due to human-caused climate change?
Are offshore wind turbines a threat to birds?
Most studies into bird collisions with turbines tend to focus on wind farms located on land. But every year, millions of songbirds cross the North Sea during spring and autumn migration, mostly at night.
Capturing collisions at sea can be difficult, due to a lack of light and the remote location.
However, a new year-long pilot study has allowed researchers to detect these small birds and bats during hours of darkness, as well as larger birds during daylight hours, using a combination of thermal cameras and artificial intelligence (AI).
The study, initiated by the energy company Vattenfall, was carried out at the Hollandse Kust Zuid offshore wind farm in collaboration with Wildlife Imaging Systems (WIS) and Wageningen University & Research (WUR).
WIS installed 16 thermal cameras on an offshore wind turbine, covering all angles and operating 24 hours a day. Combined with AI, the system detected and interpreted bird movements day and night, including in poor visibility such as fog or rain.
“Safeguarding biodiversity is an important part of the energy transition,” says Karen Krijgsveld, a bird ecology researcher at Wageningen University & Research.
“On land, we already know quite a lot about when and why birds collide with turbines, and which species are most at risk. As offshore wind energy continues to expand, we need to develop that same understanding at sea.”
Over almost a year of monitoring, covering both a spring and an autumn migrationseason, 22 possible bird collisions were identified – two of which were confirmed and one considered highly probable.
“Until now, estimates of offshore bird collisions were mainly based on theoretical models,” says Jesper Kyed Larsen, a bioscience expert at Vattenfall.
“At sea, it’s extremely difficult to verify fatalities because there are no remains to recover. This study demonstrates how we can get the empirical data needed to improve collision estimates and secure efficient mitigation measures.”
The study does not claim that collisions are rare or that these initial results from one turbine can be applied everywhere. The primary aim was to test the technology’s performance under real offshore conditions.
But a previous study by the German Offshore Wind Energy Association (BWO) also yielded similar results.
Researchers analysed more than four million bird movements over one and a half years, using radar and AI-based cameras. They found that more than 99.8 per cent of migratory birds reliably avoided the wind turbines.
Vattenfall previously conducted another study on an offshore wind farm near Aberdeen, Scotland. Over a period of 19 months – from June 2023 to December 2024 – video recordings of a wind turbine were made with the help of AI-supported analyses.
A total of 2,007 bird flight paths near the monitored turbine were examined and no collisions were found.
How can Europe protect its endangered birds?
Despite all three studies suggesting a minimal impact of offshore wind farms on birds, conservationists warn that measures must still be put in place to help protect endangered species.
Of the 26 seabirds that breed on the UK’s coastlines and islands, 10 are already on the endangered list.
Back in 2020, the land-based Smola wind farm in Norway, which consists of 68 turbines, painted one blade on each turbine black to make them stand out to birds. They found the initiative reduced avian fatalities by a staggering 70 per cent, from 11 recorded bird carcasses before painting to six afterwards.
Some critics argue that making wind farms more visible could impact birds’ migration patterns, forcing them to fly longer routes around a turbine. This means they will use up more energy, and it will take them longer to get back to their chicks.
Other measures include placing turbines far away from sensitive habitats and avoiding migration paths in the first place. Thermal cameras and radar can also be used to further investigate the risk these turbines pose to our flying friends.
Mon, October 5, 2026 at 1:24 PM GMT+1
Transport & Environment released a report on Monday showing that 1.64 million battery-electric vehicles were sold across the E.U. between January and August — a 45% jump compared with the same eight months of 2025.
BEVs claimed a 22% market share over those eight months, a gain of six percentage points on the equivalent stretch of 2025, the Brussels-based environmental advocacy group said. In August alone, the BEV share reached 28%. For the first time over a full quarter, BEV sales surpassed pure petrol car sales in the second quarter of 2026.
The report attributed the surge to E.U. car CO₂ targets compelling manufacturers to expand their electric lineups. About 60 new BEV models are expected by the end of 2026, nearly four times the average of roughly 15 new models per year between 2021 and 2025. By year-end, 16 models priced below €25,000 will be available, double the number from the previous year. Sales of models with a starting price below €25,000 are on track to be seven times higher in 2026 than in 2024, Transport & Environment said.
France and Germany together accounted for roughly half of the E.U.'s BEV sales in the first half of the year, with market shares reaching 38% and 32%, respectively, in August. Italy, Slovenia, and Bulgaria also recorded strong volume growth, though their overall BEV shares remain in single digits.
European carmakers led in model availability, accounting for close to 60% of the total lineup and introducing 16 new vehicles in the year's first six months. Their Chinese counterparts represented 21% of available models and brought 11 new ones to market. European manufacturers account for seven of the ten best-selling BEV models.
On compliance with E.U. emissions targets, Transport & Environment said carmakers have closed 75% of the gap to their 2025–2027 CO₂ targets halfway through that period. BMW, the Mercedes-Volvo pool, Stellantis, Kia, and the Tesla-Ford pool are already meeting their targets as of mid-2026. Volkswagen currently faces a 7 gCO₂/km gap but is expected to close it through new small BEV launches, including the ID. Polo, Cupra Raval, and Škoda Epiq in the second half of 2026.
The report also warned that a proposal from European Parliament rapporteur Massimiliano Salini would stall BEV market share at 22% in 2030 instead of 47% under current law, and would cut sales of models priced below €25,000 by nearly three quarters. Transport & Environment said upholding the 2030–2035 targets would allow European carmakers to close the gap with Chinese manufacturers in global BEV sales by 2035.
https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/europe-ev-sales-hit-record-122441402.html
Gold prices eased on Tuesday, pressured by a firmer US dollar and elevated Treasury yields, although losses were limited by easing expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this month, Reuters reported.
Spot gold slipped 0.3% to $4,127.87 per ounce by 0620 GMT. US gold futures were little changed at $4,155.30.
The dollar held firm, making greenback-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
The 10- and 30-year Treasury yields hit 24-year highs on Monday as negative sentiment in the bond market prevailed
"Fundamentals remain supportive of gold in the long term. The next big catalyst is likely to stem from geopolitical risk in the Middle East," said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com.
"Alternatively, a significant change in US rate expectations could provide an impetus for the next break-out, so every piece of price data will be important."
Expectations of a US rate hike in October eased after data on Friday showed US job growth slowed more than expected in September and nonfarm payrolls for the prior two months were revised lower.
Traders are still pricing an 87% probability of an increase in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
Data showed US services sector activity slowed in September, while strong domestic demand stretched supply chains and pushed a measure of prices paid by businesses for inputs to its highest level in more than four years, suggesting inflation could remain elevated into 2027.
Elsewhere, Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces staged a lightning advance to retake the coast around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait up to the city of Mocha, the government said, pushing the Iran-backed Houthis out of most of the areas they seized last month.
https://maaal.com/en/news/details/gold-inches-lower-as-firm/
Vietnamese steel producer Formosa (FHS) has raised its domestic prices for hot-rolled coils (HRC) by approximately $9/t for deliveries in December and January. This was reported by Kallanish.
The company took this step following a recent price increase by Hoa Phat.
Taking into account the discount for consignments of 20,000 tonnes or more, Formosa’s offer is set at a level equivalent to $543/t CIF, South Vietnam.
It should be noted that last week another Vietnamese steel producer – Hoa Phat Group – raised its prices for hot-rolled coils for the domestic market in November by approximately $10/t compared with the previous month.
According to data from BigMint, the rise in supply costs is taking place against a backdrop of sustained cost pressures on domestic steelmakers, with coking coal prices remaining a key factor for producers. The cost of raw materials is keeping production costs high, setting a price floor for HRC. At the same time, rising demand for steel in the domestic market has provided additional support, given the lack of Indian hot-rolled coil on offer.
It should be noted that the global market for hot-rolled coils in September 2026 showed mixed trends. In the US, prices rose steadily due to limited spot supply and longer lead times. European producers were keen to raise prices, whilst in China the expected seasonal upturn remained uncertain.
According to the European Steel Association's (EUROFER) Economic and Steel Market Outlook 2026-2027/Q3 2026 report, EU steel imports declined by five percent year on year in the first half of 2026, following an exceptional surge in the final quarter of 2025.
Flat steel imports grow despite overall decline
EU finished steel imports decreased by three percent in January-June, as a two percent increase in flat product imports was offset by an 18 percent decline in long products.
In the second quarter alone, total steel imports fell by two percent, while finished steel imports increased by eight percent, reflecting a 15 percent rise in flat products and a 19 percent decline in long products. Imports' share of apparent steel consumption stood at 23 percent in the first quarter, down from a record 37 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Turkey remains largest supplier as China and Indonesia gain
Turkey remained the EU's largest finished steel supplier, accounting for 15.7 percent of imports, followed by China with 12.3 percent, South Korea with 12 percent, Indonesia with 8.8 percent and India with 7.7 percent. Together, these countries represented 56 percent of finished steel imports. Shipments from Indonesia increased by 70 percent year on year, while imports from China rose by 40 percent and those from India edged up by one percent. Conversely, imports from Vietnam, Turkey, Ukraine and South Korea decreased by 25 percent, 16 percent, 15 percent and eight percent, respectively.
Hot-rolled imports rise while most products weaken
First-half imports of hot-rolled wide strip increased by 14 percent, whereas cold-rolled sheets fell by 17 percent, quarto plate by six percent, and coated sheets and hot-dipped galvanized products by three percent each. Among long products, imports of heavy sections declined by 47 percent, rebar by 23 percent, wire rod by 21 percent and merchant bars by three percent.
EU remains significant net steel importer
The EU's steel trade deficit, including semi-finished products, averaged 1.769 million mt per month in the first half of 2026, compared with 1.985 million mt per month across 2025. The finished steel deficit averaged 1.035 million mt per month, comprising 1.014 million mt of flat products and 21,000 mt of long products, leaving the EU a significant net importer despite the narrower overall deficit.
Russian coal exports to China fell 10.8% year over year in January-August 2026 as higher logistics costs, import duties, and stronger competition eroded Moscow’s position in one of its key markets.
The Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (SZRU) reported the figures on its official website on October 4. Russian suppliers delivered 53.15 million tons of coal to China during the eight-month period, losing ground to Mongolia and Indonesia.
According to the agency, Mongolian coal imports surged 48.9% to 78.39 million tons, while Indonesia supplied 121 million tons. China imported 310 million tons of coal overall during the period.
Mongolia benefits from a shared land border with China and zero import duties, while Russian coal faces tariffs of 3% to 6%. Australia and Indonesia also receive zero-duty treatment under free-trade arrangements.
Russian producers are already offering discounts of around 10%, but further reductions could make exports unprofitable. Transport costs are adding further pressure, with the cost of shipping coal from Russia’s Vostochny port to China rising 45.5% from the start of 2026 through September 11.
Thermal coal exports could face the strongest pressure as Russian suppliers compete with Chinese mines while absorbing higher rail and freight costs. Russian railway tariffs increased again in October, while stronger demand for open freight wagons has raised transportation expenses.
The agency added that the pressure is also spreading beyond China. Russian coking coal exports to Türkiye fell 30% during the first seven months of 2026, with no shipments recorded in July, while coal deliveries to Russia’s southern ports dropped 33% that month compared with June.
The slump in southern deliveries coincides with mounting maritime risks in the Black Sea, where Ukrainian drone attacks on commercial vessels bound for Novorossiysk have driven up shipping costs.
Shipowners have pulled dozens of coal-transporting vessels from the region or halted operations altogether, and bulk carrier availability dropped by 21% in a single month. In early August, carriers serving the route raised freight rates by up to fourfold, while war-risk insurance premiums climbed to double or triple base freight rates.
