European aluminum importers are racing to secure supplies of the metal following an outage at a key smelter in Iceland and before a new carbon tax comes into force, pushing premiums to a nine-month high.
The European aluminum duty-paid premium, which buyers on the physical market pay over the London Metal Exchange price to cover taxes, freight and handling costs, is currently at $324 a ton. It hit $330 on November 3, the highest since late January.
The 320,000-ton-per-year Grundartangi smelter in Iceland, owned by Century Aluminum, cut production by two-thirds in late October due to electrical equipment failure.
It will take an estimated 11-12 months for replacement transformers to be manufactured, shipped and installed, Century CEO Jesse Gary said on an earnings call last week, adding that the potline could be restarted sooner if the failed transformers can be repaired.
Iceland was the EU’s second-biggest supplier of aluminum in the first eight months of this year, sending 241,412 tons. Top supplier Mozambique shipped 337,670 tons to the bloc.
After a two-year transition period, importers of aluminum into the European Economic Area (EEA) will be charged a carbon price under the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) from January 1, 2026, although they will not have to make payment until 2027.
Importers front-loading
Importers have been front-loading aluminum ahead of CBAM, said Wood Mackenzie aluminum research director Edgardo Gelsomino, citing conversations with traders.
“In addition to avoiding carbon costs, they’re also aiming to reduce the administrative burden associated with the new regulation,” he added.
The CBAM charge, which will depend on the emissions of the aluminum smelter behind the metal, aims to put a fair price on carbon emitted during production. It will also apply to EU imports of iron and steel, cement, electricity, hydrogen and fertilizers from next year.
Metal made by Norsk Hydro in Norway and smelters in Iceland, as part of the EEA, will not be subject to the charge.
Aluminum produced by many Middle Eastern and Canadian smelters will face a relatively small cost of 10 euros ($11.66) to 50 euros per ton because of their low direct emissions intensity, said Nick Ogilvie, CBAM lead at carbon accounting software provider CarbonChain.
“But there are certainly smelters whose products are unlikely to be coming to the EU anymore because they’re using very old technology,” Ogilvie added.
($1 = 0.8575 euros)
(By Tom Daly; Editing by Pratima Desai and Ed Osmond)
https://www.mining.com/web/eu-aluminum-buyers-scramble-as-iceland-outage-hits-carbon-tax-looms/
13 NOV, 2025 BY ROB HAKIMIAN
The government has chosen Wylfa on Anglesey as the site for the UK’s first small modular reactors (SMRs), a decision ministers say will bring thousands of jobs and billions of pounds of investment to North Wales over the next decade.
The prime minister announced the selection and confirmed that publicly owned Great British Energy–Nuclear (GBE‑N) will develop the project. As announced over the summer, Rolls‑Royce SMR has been named as the preferred designer, subject to final contracts. The initial scheme is for three SMR units, with GBE‑N assessing the site’s potential to host up to eight reactors.
Construction activity is expected to start in 2026, with electricity generation targeted for the mid‑2030s.
Ministers have cast the move as a revival of Wylfa’s long industrial relationship with nuclear power. The original Wylfa Magnox station, on Anglesey’s north coast, operated from the 1960s until its closure in 2015. Government statements estimate the new project could support up to 3,000 jobs in peak construction and drive “billions” of pounds of infrastructure spending into the area through the mid‑2030s.
The SMR technology is significantly smaller than conventional large reactors and is being promoted by the government as quicker and cheaper to construct, contributing to energy security and the transition to low‑carbon power. Officials say the UK’s first SMRs would supply enough electricity for the equivalent of about 3M homes. The government is also providing the programme with public backing through GBE‑N, which it describes as giving the “British people a stake” in the technology.
Several aspects of the plan will require further decisions and approvals. Rolls‑Royce SMR remains preferred bidder pending final contract sign‑off, and the timetable and costs of first‑of‑a‑kind SMRs can be uncertain. The government has previously altered planning rules to ease siting of new nuclear projects in England and Wales and says it has reached regulatory cooperation agreements with the United States to speed approvals.
Local and regional economic measures feature in ministers’ case for Wylfa. The government highlighted existing initiatives such as an Anglesey Freeport and an Investment Zone for advanced manufacturing, along with rail upgrades on the North Wales mainline, saying the SMR project would build on those investments. Officials also point to wider employment targets: the government has previously announced a plan to create 400,000 extra jobs in clean energy by 2030, including 15,000 in Wales.
The announcement has international dimensions: the UK and the Czechia recently agreed a cooperation deal on civil nuclear energy, and Czech utility ČEZ holds a 20% stake in the Rolls‑Royce SMR project, underlining export opportunities for the technology.
Not all details have been resolved. Ministers did not publish a final contract with Rolls‑Royce SMR or confirm the full funding arrangements for construction. Energy analysts and some campaign groups have previously warned that small modular reactor projects face technological, regulatory and financing hurdles and stressed that timelines for novel nuclear programmes are often optimistic.
GBE‑N also owns the Oldbury site in Gloucestershire, another former nuclear location that officials say could be suitable for future projects. However, experts have told NCE about the risks of siting new nuclear at Oldbury due to its high level of future flood risk.
KEY POINTS:
By Erwin Seba
Oil prices fell more than $2 on Wednesday, weighed down by an OPEC report saying global oil supply will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit.
Brent crude futures BRN1! fell $2.15, or 3.3%, to $63.01 a barrel by 10:11 a.m. CST (1611 GMT) after gaining 1.7% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CL1! was down $2.07, or 3.39%, at $58.97 a barrel, after climbing 1.5% in the previous session.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries noted that world oil supply would match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group's production increases - a shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit in 2026.
"The prospect that the market is in balance is definitely what drove down prices," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "I think the market wants to believe it's balanced. I think the market took OPEC more seriously than IEA."
The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, forecast in its annual World Energy Outlook on Wednesday that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050.
The projection was a departure from the IEA's previous expectation that global oil demand would peak this decade, as the international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges back to one that takes into account only existing policies.
"Due to a modest downward revision of oil demand and higher non-OPEC+ supply in 3Q, the OPEC secretariat now also predicts a surplus for 3Q. That said, it is still much smaller compared to EIA and IEA," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.
Analysts have previously highlighted that crude oversupply is curbing price gains. OPEC+ agreed this month to a pause in increasing its output in the first quarter of next year, after having unwound its cuts to production since August this year.
US GOVERNMENT REOPENING
The reopening of the U.S. government, however, could boost consumer confidence and economic activity, spurring demand for crude oil, IG Market analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note.
The U.S. Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote later on Wednesday on a bill, already signed off by the Senate, that would restore funding to government agencies through January 30.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its outlook on Thursday.
The discount on Russian Urals crude compared to Brent reached a one-year high of 19.40 dollars per barrel at the ports of Primorsk and Novorossiysk on 10 November, according to Russian newspaper Kommersant, which cited industry sources. Urals serves as Russia’s benchmark crude, while Brent is the global reference.
Earlier this month, the discount hovered around 13-14 dollars per barrel. Kommersant attributed the sharp rise in the price gap to new U.S. sanctions targeting Russian energy giants Lukoil and Rosneft. Analysts noted that the Urals-Brent spread had previously peaked at 31.90 dollars per barrel in the second quarter of 2022 and 30 dollars per barrel in the first quarter of 2023, though oil prices were significantly higher at that time. Brent crude was priced at approximately USD 65.80 per tonne in early November.
Russian oil last traded at discounts exceeding USD 15 per barrel at the start of 2025, following U.S. sanctions on Gazprom Neft, Surgutneftegaz, and over 180 vessels. Analysts observed that it took roughly three weeks for the market to stabilize and for discounts to begin narrowing.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s main buyers, India and China, are reportedly cutting back on Russian crude amid the latest sanctions. Bloomberg reported that five major Indian refineries had not placed orders for Russian oil for December.
The sanctions have also prompted Türkiye’s largest refineries to increase purchases of non-Russian oil. Early November saw a sharp drop in Russia’s seaborne crude exports, the steepest decline since January 2024, as buyers reacted to the new U.S. measures by refraining from purchases.
The European Union is putting its energy security at risk by attempting to regulate every single molecule of energy products it will import in 2027, the year in which the EU will ban Russian natural gas.
In its net-zero push and targets to slash emissions, the EU in recent years has adopted a series of legislative measures to address the energy sustainability issue. But in doing so, it is undermining what’s become the most important energy issue, that of security, in the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the realization that Europe cannot rely on Russia for its gas supply.
The EU Regulation on reducing methane emissions in the energy sector, in effect from August 2024, and the proposed Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD) are placing additional barriers to LNG flows to Europe, according to gas producers and traders and the world’s biggest LNG exporters, the United States and Qatar.
Importers of LNG may have to divert cargoes away from the EU as of 2027 due to non-compliance with the legislation, which would reduce gas supply just as Europe will have phased out Russian gas flows.
The U.S., Qatar, and the gas industry call for immediate, drastic changes to the regulations—or the scrapping of these—if the EU wants to protect its energy security and continue importing LNG from its top suppliers.
Methane Regulation
The first-ever EU Regulation on reducing methane emissions in the energy sector came into effect on August 4, 2024.
For imports, the next milestone in the regulation is the monitoring, reporting, and verification requirement. Under this requirement, importers must demonstrate – as of January 2027 – that the crude oil, natural gas, or coal imported into the EU was produced in a jurisdiction with monitoring, reporting, and verification requirements equivalent to those applied domestically in the EU.
The industry argues that there cannot be verification of emissions from the various sources of gas in an LNG cargo—in the case of the U.S., it is gas produced from thousands of wells across the country, which flows to liquefaction and export facilities. Importers say they cannot verify every single molecule. It’s also unclear how the EU will verify the verification provided by importers.
“We have been complaining about many of these things basically since day one,” Andreas Guth, secretary-general of industry association Eurogas, told the Financial Times.
Eurogas members include supermajors Shell, TotalEnergies, and BP, which are also the world’s top LNG traders.
Importers of LNG into Europe “may decide to divert those cargoes to other markets outside of the EU” if the methane rules are not changed “immediately”, Guth told FT.
Eurogas and five other industry associations last month raised concerns about the so-called “tracing issue” in pinpointing the exact origin of energy molecules throughout their often long, often complex journey since production.
The general concepts to address the “tracing issue” proposed so far “may not adequately consider the current gas and crude market structures and, hence, are unlikely to be implementable without considerable cost and disruption to existing markets or are unlikely to be implementable in key producing countries that supply the EU market,” the associations said in a joint paper.
Another group, the International Gas Union (IGU), while supporting the objectives behind the methane rules, warned this summer that “closer cooperation between government and industry is necessary to ensure well intended regulatory actions are aligned with the industry's realities, and that they do not hinder countries’ ongoing efforts to achieve energy security through diversification.”
Sustainability Directive
The methane regulation is just one product of the EU’s bureaucratic machine. Another rule, the so-called Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), which imposes penalties on companies in case of non-compliance, has drawn the ire of Qatar and the United States and supermajors including ExxonMobil.
Exxon would be forced to quit its business in Europe if the EU doesn’t materially ease or repeal the directive, CEO Darren Woods said last week.
“If we can't be a successful company in Europe, and more importantly, if they start to try to take their harmful legislation and enforce that all around the world where we do business, it becomes impossible to stay there,” Woods told Reuters.
Exxon’s top executive has told Bloomberg recently that the directive is “the worst piece of legislation I’ve seen since I’ve been in this job.”
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Qatari Minister of State for Energy Affairs, Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, told the EU last month in a letter that proposed alternative texts haven’t properly addressed the problematic issues in the directive.
“We have consistently and transparently communicated how the CSDDD, as it is worded today, poses a significant risk to the affordability and reliability of critical energy supplies for households and businesses across Europe and an existential threat to the future growth, competitiveness, and resilience of the EU's industrial economy,” the top energy officials of the U.S. and Qatar said.
They call on the EU to either repeal the CSDDD in its entirety or remove its most economically damaging provisions, including those on the extra-EU application of the directive, penalties, and civil liability of companies.
The U.S. National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) also slammed the EU directive, saying last month that “a sweeping new European Union regulation could saddle America’s manufacturers with costly red tape—undermining U.S. sovereignty and manufacturing growth here at home.”
NAM Managing Vice President of Policy, Charles Crain, commented, “Manufacturers appreciate the Trump administration standing up for our industry on the world stage, and we urge both American and European policymakers to protect U.S. companies from this costly and unworkable burden.”
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
The Federal Maritime and Hydrographic Agency (BSH) has granted planning approval for the construction of the Nordlicht 2 offshore wind farm.
This means that the second project in the Nordlicht cluster, consisting of two separate sites, Nordlicht 1 (with a capacity of around 980 megawatts) and Nordlicht 2 (with a capacity of around 630 megawatts), has now also been officially approved.
The Nordlicht 2 wind farm will be built north of Borkum in the west of the German EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone). The project comprises a total of 44 wind turbines, each with a capacity of 15 megawatts, covering an area of around 44 square kilometres.
The electricity generated will be fed into the BorWin Delta converter platform, which is part of the NOR-6-3 grid connection system.
Offshore construction of Nordlicht 1 is scheduled to begin in 2026 and Nordlicht 2 one year later, with the wind farms due to go into operation in 2028. Once fully operational, electricity production for the cluster is expected to be around 6 terawatt hours (TWh) per year.
As part of Vattenfall’s sustainability efforts, both wind farms will be equipped with turbine towers made partly from low-emission steel, reducing their overall carbon footprint by 16 per cent. /1/
Vattenfall has signed contracts with Vestas for the delivery and installation of 112 V236-15.0 megawatts wind turbines for the Nordlicht 1 and 2 offshore wind farms.
November 13, 2025
Insight Focus
Brazil faces another bumper grain harvest, but farmers remain cautious. Rising input costs and high interest rates, currently at 15%, are weighing on profit margins. The expanding adoption of domestically produced bio-inputs, however, could help ease some of these cost pressures.
Bumper Crop in Sight, But Challenges Persist
Favourable weather in Brazil’s Midwest has accelerated planting, with more than 34% of the soybean area already sown and 40% of the first-crop corn planted under equally favourable conditions — giving farmers reason to be optimistic.
At this pace, Brazil should harvest another bumper crop. The first survey by Conab forecasts grain production of 354.5 million tonnes in 2026 — almost 1% more than this year — a new record.
Source: Conab
For farmers, however, it is still too early to pop the champagne. Factors such as Brazil’s high interest rate of 15% per year, which makes credit more expensive, and the increase in input prices may threaten profit margins.
The price of urea, for example — one of the main components of fertilizers — has risen by about 23% since 2024. This year, the warning light began flashing in July, when urea prices began to rise again.
Source: Comex.
The conflict in the Middle East has impacted production in countries such as Iran and Egypt, which play a significant role in the global urea supply. In Egypt, production has fallen due to a shortage of natural gas — an essential raw material for fertilizer manufacturing — part of which the country imports from Israel.
In Iran, some plants have had their production reduced due to war-related risks. Maritime freight rates on routes passing through conflict zones have also increased, driving up costs.
In the short term, prices are not expected to change significantly. Geopolitical factors should continue to influence this scenario — and the fact that Russia is one of Brazil’s main suppliers of chemical fertilizers doesn’t help. With the country under sanctions because of the war in Ukraine, maritime insurance and other costs have risen considerably.
Source: Comex.
Bio-Inputs Gain Ground
To circumvent the high input costs — and to strengthen their sustainability efforts — farmers have been increasingly adopting domestically produced bio-inputs.
These products are developed from microorganisms such as bacteria, algae, yeasts, and plant extracts, and are used for nutrition and pest control in crops. One important advantage is that they can be produced on farms, with guidance from specialised professionals, optimising costs. Bio-inputs that help fix nitrogen, an essential nutrient for plants, increase the efficiency of nutrients present in the soil.
A study by CropLife, a non-profit organisation representing companies engaged in research and development of inputs for sustainable agriculture, shows that the use of bio-inputs grew by 13% in the 2024/25 crop season. Fertilizers and pesticides of biological origin, produced from microorganisms such as bacteria and fungi, as well as plant extracts, were used on approximately 156 million hectares.
Companies in the sector have been investing in launching new bio-inputs — which must be registered and approved by the Ministry of Agriculture before reaching the market. In recent years, the bureaucracy for registering new products has been reduced, making the process more agile.
Source: CropLife.
Public Spending Puts Pressure on the Economy
However, dependence on imported inputs is not expected to decline significantly in the short term. The economy also remains a concern. In this case, attention has been focused on the increase in public spending and its impact on key variables such as the interest rate.
Source: National Treasury of Brazil
Part of this public spending has been directed toward expanding social programs that put more money into circulation, stimulating consumption. To contain inflation, the Central Bank has maintained a high interest rate.
Source: Central Bank.
As a result, credit becomes expensive, impacting agribusiness — which accounts for a quarter of Brazil’s GDP — as well as other sectors of the economy. The cost of rural credit, for instance, has already increased.
Interest rates under the Plano Safra, a federal government program that finances agribusiness through credit granted by Banco do Brasil, have been readjusted for the next harvest, averaging between 8.5% and 14%. More than ever, sharp financial management and new productivity gains will be essential.
https://www.czapp.com/analyst-insights/brazils-record-grain-harvest-threatened-by-rising-costs/
HARMONY Gold said it was reviewing its capital structure in a way that would match “its funding profile to its cash flow generation”.
Commenting in a production update for the first quarter of its 2026 financial year (to end-September), the South African miner said it would provide an update on its decisions at its interim results next year.
A review of “the structure of debt instruments” comes amid a record gold price which has seen miners in the sector report all-time increases in cash generation.
Barrick Mining, AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields have unveiled new capital management strategies with special dividends, commitments to sizeable payouts of free cash flow and share buy-backs featuring highly.
For the first quarter, Harmony Gold registered a 53% increase in net cash to R17.1bn ($989m) from R11.1bn ($628m) as at 30 June 2025. Cash and available undrawn facilities rose 27% to R26.6bn over the same period.
Harmony has aggressively invested in an offshore diversification strategy. It recently concluded the $1bn acquistion of MAC Copper, an New York listed firm that operates the Australian-based CSA Copper Mine.
The company is also due to announce whether it will proceed with Eva Copper, another Australian asset it bought for $170m. Based on the previous owner’s feasibility study, pre-production capital of Eva Copper was forecast to be $597m.
Set against these projects, and the extension of its Mponeng mine in South Africa, Harmony runs a relatively conservative dividend policy of paying 20% of net free cash. The company has been criticised for this in the past.
Post the completion of the MAC Copper deal, Harmony said its net debt to Ebitda ratio remaine “comfortably below our internal threshold of 1x”.
For the first quarter, Harmony produced eight percent less gold year-on-year. At some 389,923 ounces this was, however, largely planned owing to lower expected grades at Moab Khotsong. An unplanned event was a decline in output at Doornkop owing to shaft water handling constraints. The issue had been resolved, said Harmony.
Despite this setback, the group said it was tracking above full year guidance, which it expected to meet, of between 1.4 to 1.5 million oz in production at an AISC of R1,150 000 to R1,220 000 per kilogram.
Story Highlights
Silvercorp Metals (TSE:SVM) has provided an announcement.
Silvercorp Metals Inc. announced a transition in its senior finance team with the retirement of Derek Liu as CFO and the appointment of Winnie Wang as Interim CFO. Lei Wu has also been appointed as Corporate Controller. These changes reflect the company’s commitment to strong financial governance and internal talent development as it pursues its strategic objectives.
The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SVM) stock is a Buy with a C$8.25 price target.
Spark’s Take on TSE:SVM Stock
According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:SVM is a Neutral.
Silvercorp Metals demonstrates strong financial performance and positive earnings call highlights, contributing to a solid overall score. However, valuation concerns and moderate technical indicators slightly offset these strengths.
More about Silvercorp Metals
Silvercorp Metals Inc. is a Canadian mining company that produces silver, gold, lead, and zinc. It has a long history of profitability and growth potential, focusing on generating free cash flow from long-life mines, organic growth through extensive drilling, mergers and acquisitions, and a commitment to responsible mining and ESG practices.
Average Trading Volume: 918,786
Technical Sentiment Signal: Buy
Current Market Cap: C$2.09B
Ballymore Resources says it has hit significant zones of massive sulphides in the first ever reverse circulation drilling program at the historical Torpy’s Crooked Creek high-grade silver mine.
One of two holes completed at the site, 30km south-east of Chillagoe, intersected two lenses of visually spectacular lead-zinc mineralisation, the company said.
Results included:
Sphalerite is the main ore of zinc and a key source of germanium, indium and thallium while galena is a lead ore and a key source of silver.
“Intersecting massive sulphides with our second hole at Torpy’s is a tremendous result, and a pleasing endorsement of the excellent geological work completed by the Ballymore team,” Ballymore managing director David A-Izzeddin said.
“With the significant lead and zinc results validating our high hopes, we now await the all-important silver assays and the completion of the drilling program over the next month.”
The Torpy’s silver mine operated between 1904 and 1914, averaging 435g/t silver and 15.3 per cent lead (based on available mine production records).
The site is part of Ballymore’s Ruddygore project.
Mr A-Izzeddin said further drilling was underway, with assay results expected in December.
Ballymore is also conducting a downhole EM survey of the completed drill holes to map potential extensions to the massive sulphide mineralisation.
“In addition, drilling is progressing at Seventy Mile Mount, adjacent to the historic Mount Leyshon gold mine, south of Charters Towers,” Mr A-Izzeddin said.
“Diamond drill hole BSMDD006 has progressed to 140m depth and has encountered broad zones of hydrothermal breccia with associated sulphide mineralisation. We eagerly await results for both exciting drilling programs.”
https://industryqld.com.au/torpys-drill-work-turns-up-massive-sulphide-system/
Surging Solar and EV Demand Could Propel Silver Toward Multi-Decade Highs
November 11, 2025
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Silver is caught between two powerful forces; booming industrial use and a flood of financial demand. Both are squeezing supply and keeping prices on edge.
I’ve been watching silver for years, and what’s happening right now feels different. For once, the metal isn’t moving just on hype or short-term speculation. It’s running on a real supply problem.
Global mine production is stuck around 820 million ounces a year, while total demand is estimated to exceed 1.24 billion ounces in 2025. That gap is not a blip; it’s the largest sustained deficit the market has seen in over a decade.
Based on our Silver price prediction, this demand might push prices to $60 in a year or two.
Silver Price Prediction: Is $60 Possible?
Two things will likely push Silver to $55-$60:
Industrial Demand: Solar And Technology Are Soaking Up Supply
The solar sector is now the biggest consumer of silver, and that’s reshaping the market. Every solar panel needs silver paste for its conductive properties, and the global push for renewable energy keeps installations rising fast.
Some forecasts show photovoltaic silver demand reaching roughly 273 million ounces by 2030, a huge jump from current levels.
What makes this more serious is that technology demand (electronics, EVs, medical devices) is also climbing. Even small increases in each category add up to a major pull on total supply. This steady, predictable demand is what makes silver’s rally more sustainable than short-term speculation.
Financial Momentum: ETFs And Investor Interest Add More Fuel
Silver-backed ETFs have seen heavy inflows this year, pulling physical bars out of circulation. The iShares Silver Trust (SLV) and similar funds added over $1 billion in net inflows recently, tightening supply even further.
This is where things can get volatile. When investors chase momentum during a physical shortage, prices can spike quickly. The market starts trading more like a squeeze than a steady rally, and that’s when retail traders often jump in late.
Supply Constraints And Price Outlook
Mine supply isn’t catching up, and recycling can only do so much. If Silver industrial demand stays strong and ETF inflows keep rising, silver could test $55–$60 within the next year or two.
For that to happen, we’d need real yields to stay low, and the U.S. dollar not to strengthen too much.
I believe any dip below $30 still looks attractive for long-term buyers. It’s not about chasing spikes, but positioning early before deficits tighten further.
Conclusion
Silver’s story today is both industrial and financial, and that’s what makes it unique. The deficit is real, investor interest is strong, and supply growth is limited. This combination gives silver one of the most compelling risk-reward profiles in the metals market right now.
If you’re watching the trend, focus on three things: solar installation data, ETF flows, and physical inventories. Those tell you when momentum is building, and when it’s time to move.
The United States has crossed a critical fiscal "Rubicon" that signals the "end of the empire" and is now setting the stage for a "Bretton Woods 2.0" monetary reset where gold will be officially "written up" to help pay down sovereign debt.
That is the stark forecast from Dr. James Thorne, a Ph.D. in economics and Chief Market Strategist at Wellington Altus Private Wealth.
In a wide-ranging interview with Kitco News on Monday, Thorne argued that the U.S. has reached a point of no return, exemplified by the ongoing 40-day government shutdown and a historic fiscal crisis.
"Interest payments... on the debt in the United States... was greater... [than] the expenditure on the military, and that is typically the Rubicon," Thorne stated. "When you cross, that signifies the end of the empire... We're at this point where the system has to be recalibrated."
According to Thorne, that recalibration will be a deliberate reflation policy to manage the "excessive level of debt... at Napoleonic war levels."
He believes the solution, already being hinted at by policymakers, will be a formal re-pricing of assets - including gold - on the government's balance sheet.
"...why wouldn't they write up the assets? ... Why shouldn't they write up the assets and use that to basically pay down the debt?" Thorne asked. "People [are going to] recognize the fact that we are writing Brenton Woods's 2.0... And gold will be a key contributor."
The "S&P 7,500" Supercycle
Despite the sovereign debt crisis, Thorne is exceptionally bullish on markets, forecasting the S&P 500 will reach "somewhere between 74 to 75 hundred... by the spring of 2026."
He argues that the market is in the "early innings" of the "largest CapEx supercycle in modern history," driven by a global arms race for Artificial Intelligence (AI), data centers, and the energy grid.
When asked about bubble fears and criticism from investors like Michael Burry, Thorne dismissed them as a misunderstanding of how new technology waves are priced.
"We are living in a complete and total void of information where we don't know what the intrinsic value is of an asset... a railroad, a canal, AI, a server," he said, citing the "Market for Lemons" economic theory. "What happens is... the individual... that has the best story... that captures the imagination of the market wins."
"We are not [going to] know what the intrinsic value of AI is for decades," he added. "It will not be the last time we hear about this narrative... it just goes with the normal course of business."
The "Lost Decade" and the Fed "Can't Take High Rates"
While Thorne is bullish through 2031—driven by a 100% tax deduction on CapEx spending—he warned that the super-cycle will end in a crash, followed by a "lost decade" for investors.
He offered a hypothetical: "Let's say the S&P peaks at 15,000 in 2031, and doesn't achieve that level until 2041... a lost decade in terms of asset class returns."
Until then, Thorne stated that "valuations will matter. I just think it's not [going to] be until... the middle of the next decade."
The fuel for this, he said, will be a sharp reversal by the Federal Reserve. He dismissed concerns about "higher for longer" interest rates, arguing the system simply cannot handle them.
"I know the central bankers think... that we can take high rates. We can't. We can't take high rates," Thorne said, forecasting the Fed will be forced to cut its overnight rate "below 2.75, somewhere in the low two area."
Gold, Gold Stocks, and the Bitcoin Breakout
For hard asset investors, Thorne's core message was that the public has finally "lost trust" in the fiat system, making gold the primary "go-to trade."
"People are fed up with the... fiat currency. That's why gold is going," Thorne said. "But I think the more profound question there is they're letting it run, and I think they want it to happen. That's my simple interpretation."
He confirmed his long-term target for gold remains between "$5,000 short term and maybe close to $8,000 by the end of the decade," but warned it "has run too far, too fast" and will likely "consolidate between 4,000 [and] 4,400 for a couple of months."
He issued a stunning warning, however, for gold stock investors:
"So the big money in this run has been made," Thorne stated.
He clarified that the "easy money" from the metal's price surge is over, and the focus now shifts to operational risk.
"Now these mining companies have to execute... because [the] gold run from 2000 to 4,000 is over," he said. "The tough part for them is... mining is a very difficult business... to model with [an] Excel spreadsheet... Right. You know, something could happen, a mine could flood, you know, and everybody will freak out and hammer the... gold stocks."
Thorne concluded investors must now make a critical choice: "...what you should be doing now is just picking at the physical and not... the equities that are highly levered to the next move up. I think that's an interesting question."
He argued that as trust is lost, "gold is the go-to trade," and "eventually... once it gets a little bit more mature... Bitcoin" will follow.
He identified Bitcoin as being in a "very, very frustrating consolidating pattern" and issued an urgent warning for those waiting on the sidelines:
"That thing breaks out... it's gone. In a New York minute, it's gone and you won't be able to get in."
The tungsten market has entered a critical phase, with significantly increased sensitivity, sluggish trading activity, and a stalemate between supply and demand. On the raw material side, the willingness to continue chasing price increases is wavering, with miners maintaining firm prices but increasing their willingness to sell. On the consumer side, the strategy of purchasing based on rigid demand continues, and powder prices may see further increases, but downstream acceptance remains weak. The tungsten scrap market appears stable on the surface but is declining due to increased profit-taking.
In the cobalt market, the Democratic Republic of Congo suspended a major copper-cobalt mine project in Kolwezi, owned by Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary, citing a leak and environmental pollution incident, exacerbating concerns about a cobalt supply shortage. It is worth noting that Indonesia's resource development and utilization levels are continuously improving, and it is expected to gradually fill the supply gap in the international market.
As of press time,
65% wolframite concentrate is priced at RMB 317,000/ton, up 121.7% from the beginning of the year.
65% scheelite concentrate is priced at RMB 316,000/ton, up 122.5% from the beginning of the year.
Ammonium paratungstate (APT) price is reported at RMB 470,000/ton, up 122.8% from the beginning of the year.
European APT price is reported at USD 647.5-700/mtu (equivalent to RMB 408,000-441,000/ton), up 104.2% from the beginning of the year.
Tungsten powder price is reported at RMB 740/kg, up 134.2% from the beginning of the year.
Tungsten carbide powder price is reported at RMB 720/kg, up 131.5% from the beginning of the year.
Cobalt powder price is reported at RMB 510/kg, up 200% from the beginning of the year.
70% ferrotungsten is reported at RMB 435,000/ton, up 102.3% from the beginning of the year.
European ferrotungsten is reported at USD 92-94/kg W (equivalent to RMB 458,000-468,000/ton), up 111.4% from the beginning of the year.
Scrap tungsten rod price is reported at RMB 470/kg, up 113.6% from the beginning of the year.
The price of scrap tungsten drill bits is reported at RMB 437/kg, up 91.7% from the beginning of the year.
