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The Burdass Brief 9th October 2026

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Macro

Strait of Hormuz Update

Desperate Trump claims record oil flowing through Strait of Hormuz in Iran update

YELENA MANDENBERG

Thu, 8 October 2026 at 10:16 pm BST

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on October 07, 2026

Trump posted a new rant about Iran and the midterms on Truth Social -Credit:Getty Images (Getty Images)

President Donald Trump claimed that the Strait of Hormuz has "record numbers" of barrels going through, as he also promised not to bomb Iran prior to the midterms. 

"We are having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran. I want to make it clear to everybody that, while Iran is in very bad condition, both Economically and Militarily, and while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, with Oil flowing in Record Numbers of Barrels through the Hormuz Strait (22 Million Barrels, last night alone, with not one barrel coming from, or going to, Iran!), we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd. IRAN WILL NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON! President DONALD J. TRUMP," wrote Trump on Truth Social. 

Trump believes the U.S. is gaining leverage as the U.S. military has had greater success helping oil tankers traverse the Strait of Hormuz and get Gulf allies’ oil to market, while a Navy blockade is shutting down Iran’s oil exports.

Iran has lost its near chokehold over oil flows through the vital waterway with U.S. Central Command shepherding oil tankers through the strait at night with their location systems turned off.

With the help of Gulf pipelines that skirt the strait, Gulf countries have been able to export oil at nearly prewar levels.

Oil tankers and gas tankers were affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a global energy crisis stemming from the war in the Middle East.

Iran stepped up attacks on tankers last week -Credit:Getty Images

But Iran has ramped up attacks on tankers passing through the strait in recent days. Overall, ship traffic remains well below pre-war levels, as do shipments of liquid natural gas and fuel products, according to the AP. 

Tanker operators willing to risk running the gauntlet under Central Command’s protection are, in some cases, charging $1 million a day or more, shipping analysts say.

The situation has become further complicated as Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s government have launched a military campaign aimed at driving Iran-backed Houthi rebels from the Bab el-Mandeb strait, another critical Middle East trade route for oil and other goods. The Houthis, in turn, are targeting Saudi airports and key infrastructure in the kingdom with drone and missile strikes.

The U.S. and Iran signed a short-lived interim agreement in June, intended to establish a 60-day ceasefire and framework for a permanent peace deal.

The deal signed by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian collapsed within weeks amid renewed military actions and disputes over control of the Strait of Hormuz, the critical water which one-fifth world’s oil flowed through before the war.

Negotiations had stalled after Trump publicly rejected Iran's proposal late last month to reopen the strait within seven days if the U.S. met certain conditions.


https://www.aol.com/articles/desperate-trump-claims-record-oil-211609000.html

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Flavio Bolsonaro Slightly Ahead of Lula in Brazil Runoff, Datafolha Poll Shows

By Reuters

Oct. 8, 2026, at 5:57 p.m. 

Reuters

Brazilian presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) speaks at a meeting with members of Brazil's Republicans party to announce the party's support for his campaign, ahead of the runoff election, in Brasilia, Brazil, October 7, 2026. REUTERS/Diego Herculano

SAO PAULO, Oct ⁠8 (Reuters) - ⁠Brazilian Senator Flavio ⁠Bolsonaro is slightly leading President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ‌in a simulated ‌scenario of the October ⁠25 ⁠presidential runoff, a Datafolha poll showed on Thursday.

• The senator, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, would receive 49% of the vote ⁠compared ⁠with 45% for ⁠Lula, Datafolha poll showed.

• It is the first Datafolha ⁠poll after the first-round vote on Sunday, in which the younger Bolsonaro surprisingly led ⁠Lula.

• The poll's result still represents a technical ⁠tie as the poll's margin of error is of plus-minus 2 percentage points.

• 5% of the respondents said they would cast a blank vote, and undecided voters made ⁠up 1%, the poll showed.

• Datafolha surveyed 2,520 people in-person between October 6-7.

(Reporting by Andre Romani; Editing by Kylie Madry and Iñigo Alexander)


https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2026-10-08/flavio-bolsonaro-slightly-ahead-of-lula-in-brazil-runoff-datafolha-poll-shows

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Who Defends Saudi Arabia? Turkey's Foreign Minister Says Ankara Weighing Saudi Defence Support, Rules Out Offensive Role

By Reuters October 8, 20261:45 PM GMT+1 Updated 18 hours ago

ANKARA, Oct 8 (Reuters) - Turkey is assessing how it can help Saudi Arabia defend against attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthi militants under a joint defence pact with Pakistan, Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Thursday, ruling out Turkish ‌participation in offensive operations.

Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement in August, under which an armed attack on one member is considered an attack on all. The three countries have since held political and military meetings in response to the Houthi attacks.

On Monday, the countries said they had agreed to move immediately to implement their collective defence commitments ⁠and ensure the "rapid deployment" of military forces and capabilities in Saudi Arabia.

Speaking at a joint press conference with his Hungarian counterpart Anita Orban in Ankara, Fidan stressed that the pact was defensive rather than offensive, saying military officials were assessing possible contributions, particularly in air defence, electronic warfare and technical support.

"Yemen's legitimate government forces are already continuing the battle on the ground and Saudi Arabia is supporting them," Fidan said.

"But this is a defensive agreement. When a country party to the pact comes under attack, you stand by it in its defence. This is not an offensive ‌agreement. ⁠Turkey will not send troops to another country to carry out attacks on its territory," he said.

Fidan said military delegations would determine Saudi Arabia's operational defence needs and what contributions Turkey and Pakistan could make.

On Wednesday, two officials told Reuters that Turkey was sending mainly defensive and technical supportto Saudi Arabia to help ⁠its fight with Houthi militants.

Turkish officials have said any support provided at this stage would largely be in a bilateral capacity, as Turkey's parliament has not officially ratified the joint defence pact.

Fidan said on Thursday that ⁠work was largely completed for the agreement to be submitted for parliament's approval and that they aimed to send it "as soon as possible".

Turkey, which has NATO's second-largest army and a robust ⁠defence industry, has condemned the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, voiced willingness to help meet Riyadh's technical military needs, and agreed to join a Saudi-led coalition to ensure navigational safety in the Red Sea.

Reporting by Tuvan Gumrukcu Writing by Humeyra Pamuk Editing by Ece Toksabay and Jon Boyle


https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/turkeys-foreign-minister-says-ankara-weighing-saudi-defence-support-rules-out-2026-10-08/

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Oil

Physical Oil Price Breakaway From Digital Oil Is Instructive For Gold & Silver

Much of the equipment and machinery that drive our economy runs on fuels derived from crude oil.

The last few weeks have seen a flurry of reports about increased oil exports out of the Persian Gulf however the reality is that what can sustainably be exported right now, ignoring worsening attacks on tankers and pipelines, is what is being produced from oil wells in the region.

The reality is that after 7 months of war on Iran, stored crude oil buffers are already drawn down to very thin levels.

GROK estimates daily Middle East (ME) crude oil well production at ~ 20 million (M) barrels per day (bpd) in September - with a caveat that the Saudi production estimated appears to be overstated by ~ 1M bpd.

Accepting a 20 M bpd crude oil wellhead production rate as a baseline, ME daily consumption of crude is approximately 8.5M bpd.

That leaves 11.5 M bpd for export from the ME region on a sustained level given current wellhead oil production. Crude storage in the region is already drawn-down and this is where ME exports are heading - to 11.5 M bpd not to the recent 17 M bpd surge vaunted by the financial press that relied on diminished locally stored oil.

Physical Oil Price Is Surging

Dated Brent is a crude oil benchmark representing the price of physical North Sea regional oil in tankers for delivery in the next few weeks and that price is beginning to surge again above $130 /bbl breaking away from the digital Brent futures price driven by increasing physical shortage:

Figure 1 - Dated Brent vs Brent Futures Price (USD); source: Bloomberg, ICE, Zerohedge.com

Oil digital futures contracts can be created and sold without limit while the availability of crude oil is increasingly limited.

We can expect to see a continued decline of oil exports from the ME region as depleted stored crude stocks are further drawn-down, and higher prices/shortages of physical oil derived products (fuels, lubricants, plastics, petrochemicals, etc.) in the future.

The Lesson For Gold & Silver Prices

Similar to oil, the prices of gold and silver that have limited supply and availability to market, have been priced with infinitely available digital promissory notes for physical gold in the globally dominant London gold/silver cash market and the New York futures market for decades.

The surge in the price for actual physical crude oil that has increasingly limited availability and the breakaway in its price compared to digital oil futures trading products is instructive. As this entirely elective global energy crisis deepens into a global currency, financial, food, and economic crisis, watch the prices for safe haven physical gold and silver increasingly breakaway from the digitally fixed virtual prices that have misled the markets for decades.

The jig is up.


https://jensendavid.substack.com/p/physical-oil-price-breakaway-from

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Oil and Gas

Booms and Flight Disruptions in Riyadh as Saudi-Houthi War Escalates

Flames burn at a facility belonging to Saudi oil giant Aramco south of Riyadh on October 3, 2026. (Photo by AFP via Getty Images) /

Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis have stepped up their deadly campaign of strikes on Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh, where booms were heard on Thursday, flights disrupted, and some office staff told to work from home.

The Houthis said they had fired a ballistic missile at Riyadh airport and repeated a threat to force Saudi airspace to close after the kingdom gave support to the forces of Yemen's internationally recognised government in a reignited civil war.

The conflict, now an overspill of the US-Iran war, has added new chaos to a region already aflame, and threatens to draw other states into gruelling mountain fighting - with Syria now considering deploying troops to assist Saudi Arabia.

The kingdom has pushed for support from allied nations, including Turkey and Pakistan, even if only in a logistical or defensive capacity, as it tries to reverse Houthi gains in southwest Yemen, by the southern entrance to the Red Sea.

Those requests have taken on more urgency since Saudi authorities said on Wednesday that three people had been killed this week in strikes on Riyadh airport and Abha airport in the southwest.

Those requests have taken on more urgency since Saudi authorities said on Wednesday that three people had been killed this week in strikes on Riyadh airport and Abha airport in the southwest.

Civil war reignited by conflict in Iran 

The flight tracker FlightRadar24 indicated numerous delayed arrivals and departures at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport on Thursday.

Several mulitinational firms based in Riyadh's King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD) told staff to work from home after Thursday morning's loud booms, five people familiar with the matter said, including some affected staff.

The Saudi government did not respond to a request for comment, and KAFD was not immediately available for comment.

Some diplomats said they had received warnings, and some schools in Riyadh told parents there were orders to shelter in place, though authorities did not issue a public alert. Reuters could not identify the source of the booms. 

Yemen's long-running civil war, which paused with a ceasefire in 2022, has erupted again in recent weeks with the Houthis seizing stretches of the Red Sea coast last month, including along the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait. 

The Houthis, who control many of Yemen's most populous areas, including the capital Sanaa, have said they were responding to attacks from the Saudi-backed government, which the government denies.

Their threats to shipping along a waterway that has become ever more critical for Gulf oil exports since Iran's attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and their attacks on Saudi cities and infrastructure, have drawn the kingdom back in.

This week, Saudi-backed forces launched a counter attack, taking back areas around the strait.

However, in a war with several frontlines, the Houthis have made gains of their own, surrounding Yemen's third-largest city, Taiz, by taking territory along its main mountain road to Aden.

The fighting, which pits the Houthis against a coalition of Saudi-backed forces under the internationally recognised government, has led to a humanitarian crisis in the poorest Arab state, displacing 200,000 people since the conflict resumed.

Officials say Syrian aid might be purely defensive

One US and one Syrian defence official said Syria was carefully considering options for military support, including defensive aid to protect Saudi Arabia from attacks, or an offensive deployment to help take the fight to the Houthis.

In response to a request for comment to the Syrian foreign ministry, a diplomat said Syria stood firmly with Saudi Arabia but that its focus was on domestic priorities such as recovery from its own civil war.

Saudi Arabia this summer agreed the Mecca Pact with Turkey and Pakistan, committing all three to come to each other's defence, though Ankara has yet to ratify the treaty.

NATO-member Turkey said on Wednesday it was sending mainly defensive an technical support to the kingdom to help in the fight against the Houthis. 

A Turkish official said this was expected to take the form of military equipment, intelligence sharing and weapons systems.

Turkey, a close ally of Syria's government and a supporter of its forces while they were still rebels fighting the government of Bashar al-Assad, previously brought some Syrians fight in Libya's civil war in 2020.

Pakistan has flown military equipment to Aden in southern Yemen to help in the battle against the Houthis, sources in Pakistan have said, and has deployed troops within Saudi Arabia to help defend its borders.

The Saudi and Yemeni authorities did not respond to requests for comment.


https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/10/08/booms-flight-disruptions-riyadh-saudi-houthi-war-escalates.html

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Hurricane Isaias Shuts 25% of US Gulf Oil Production

Roughly one quarter of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico has been taken offline as operators evacuate staff and scale back operations ahead of Hurricane Isaias, according to the Marine Minerals Administration, the US offshore regulator.

The Marine Minerals Administration reported that 511,619 barrels per day of oil output, equivalent to 25.08% of Gulf production, had been shut in as the storm drew closer.

Gas output was also disrupted, with 350.25m cu ft per day, or about 10m cu m per day, representing 16.37% of Gulf production, taken offline.

Eight production platforms and two rigs that are not dynamically positioned were evacuated, while one dynamically positioned rig was moved out of the storm's path.

Shell and Chevron were among the operators taking precautionary steps. Shell shut in production and pulled personnel from its Mars, Olympus, Ursa, Vito and Appomattox facilities. The company had earlier started removing non-essential staff from other Gulf assets, including Stones.

Chevron began shut-in procedures at four of its operated facilities and moved additional personnel onshore. BP also started removing non-essential workers from Gulf facilities as operators reacted to the worsening weather outlook.

The actions followed forecasts indicating that Isaias would strengthen as it advanced toward the northern Gulf Coast.

Operators are expected to inspect offshore facilities before restarting production once the storm has passed and weather conditions permit crews to return.


https://www.indexbox.io/blog/hurricane-isaias-shuts-down-25-of-us-gulf-oil-output/

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U.S. and Russia Discuss Reopening Path for Russian Gas Sales to Germany

Top U.S. and Russian officials, including U.S. Special Envoy Jared Kushner, have held talks about bringing a U.S. investor into the Nord Stream gas pipelines that supplied Germany before Russia invaded Ukraine, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

The discussions included Kirill Dmitriev, a close adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Kushner, who has been trying to broker a truce between Russia and Ukraine. Kushner views business as central to restoring peace, and such a deal would enable U.S. investors to profit from energy flows to Europe once the war ends.

Dmitriev and Kushner have met in Moscow and New York in recent weeks, while two people familiar with the matter said the Nord Stream issue remains on the agenda, although it was unclear how much they discussed the pipelines at those meetings, according to the report.

The company controlling Nord Stream is 51% owned by Russian state energy giant Gazprom, while 31% is split between two German entities, and the remainder is held by a French and a Dutch firm. The two German shareholders are seeking to retain their stakes to maintain German influence if Gazprom sells its share, another person said.

The proposal faces significant hurdles as Nord Stream is under U.S. and EU sanctions, making a restart illegal under current sanctions, while a deal is unlikely in the medium term because of the obstacles, the report added.

A White House official said any potential deals would need to be negotiated with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation and Treasury and benefit U.S. taxpayers and companies.

Broadly, a gas deal would please the Kremlin but would divide German public opinion, which is already split over buying Russian energy. Poland and the Baltic states, which are particularly vulnerable to Russia, reject energy ties.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/seekingalpha:3ba5259e8094b:0-u-s-and-russia-discuss-reopening-path-for-russian-gas-sales-to-germany-report/

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Who Is Going to Pay for Alaska LNG?

By Natalia Katona - Oct 07, 2026, 6:00 PM CDT

  • Washington’s tariff pressure is pushing South Korea toward Alaska LNG, but Seoul’s conditional interest falls short of financing a project costing up to $54 billion.
  • Alaska’s costly pipeline and difficult terrain threaten to outweigh its shipping advantage, with capital costs approaching $2.7 billion per million tonnes of annual LNG capacity.
  • Weakening Korean gas demand and competing Canadian supplies undermine Alaska’s investment case, giving Seoul reasons to seek a less costly way to satisfy Washington.

Washington’s tariff pressure is giving Alaska LNG something its economics have struggled to secure: a potential investor. Discussed for decades, the costly and technically complex project has regained momentum under President Donald Trump, who is using tariff threats to press foreign partners into backing it. South Korea is now at the centre of that effort, as Seoul’s bid to protect access to the US market becomes a negotiation over financing one of America’s most expensive energy developments.

The question is whether that pressure can produce a commercially viable investment. Washington’s threat of 25% tariffs on Korean exports led to an arrangement, lowering the rate to 15% in exchange for $350 billion in investments and $100 billion in US energy purchases. South Korea’s parliament passed corresponding legislation in March 2026, with negotiations moving toward specific energy projects in September.

On October 1, Seoul outlined potential investments including a 6.47 GW gas-fired power project in Texas serving AI data centres from 2029, and eight US nuclear reactors costing a combined $120 billion, including two using Korea’s APR-1400 design. Alaska LNG was also under review, conditional on commercial and legal requirements being met and that condition is what matters. In September, President Trump had already announced that South Korea was to pay more than $50 billion toward Alaska LNG at an event attended by Alaska officials and Glenfarne Chief Executive Brendan Duval. Seoul’s conditional review falls well short of that commitment.

Owned 75% by Glenfarne and 25% by the state of Alaska, the proposed $45 billion–$54 billion development would transport North Slope gas to domestic consumers and ultimately an export terminal at Nikiski in south-central Alaska. However, the project has a fundamental disadvantage which is in its immense cost of connecting remote reserves to customers: treatment facilities and a roughly 1,300-kilometre (807-mile), pipeline must precede export revenues.

Geography of the project is the main issue. Much of the pipeline would be buried across difficult terrain, including shifting permafrost and mountain crossings reaching 1.5 km (5,000 feet). About 54% can be constructed only during summer, making missed construction windows a significant delay risk. Unresolved state-tax arrangements and domestic cost allocations add uncertainty over who absorbs possible overruns, including whether Alaskan households could face higher gas and electricity bills. Alaska must build exceptionally expensive infrastructure simply to reach the starting point of competing exporters.

Capital intensity approaches $2.7 billion per million tonnes of annual LNG capacity (in comparison to an $898 million/tonne for Qatar’s North Field East and $762 million/tonne for Cheniere’s Corpus Christi Stage 3). Development would proceed in phases, beginning with the pipeline that would feed the local market before the larger export component (first exports are targeted for 2031). This means that financing and cost recovery during the domestic-supply phase is yet another complication for the matter.

Asian commitments have so far been considerably narrower than Trump’s announcements. In July 2025, he said Japan would form an Alaska LNG joint venture under its $550 billion US investment vehicle. Alaska LNG subsequently disappeared from Japan’s list of potential investments. Japanese participation instead centred on an autumn 2025 letter of intent involving Jera and Tokyo Gas to purchase 1 million tonnes of LNG annually for 20 years.

Korea’s Posco International has similarly signed a non-binding agreement to buy 1 million tonnes annually for 20 years and supply a significant share of pipeline steel. Taiwan, Thailand and TotalEnergies have also expressed potential buying interest. Such arrangements indicate demand, but do not settle construction financing or risk allocation.

South Korea nevertheless still has substantial reasons to maintain access to American LNG. Its annual demand of 47.8 million tonnes dwarfs Posco’s proposed Alaska purchases. In 2025, the US supplied 4.4 million tonnes, behind Australia’s 14.7 million, Malaysia’s 7.9 million and Qatar’s 7.2 million. That balance shifted after the US-Iran conflict began in late February and Qatar effectively stopped exporting LNG. Korean imports from the US rose from 200,000 tonnes in March (out of total 3.1 million tonnes), to 1 million tonnes in July (out of 3.7 million tonnes). America became a leading supplier alongside Australia.

Yet greater reliance on US supply coincides with weakening Korean LNG demand. Net-zero policies are gradually reducing consumption, while wartime price increases prompted temporarily higher coal-fired generation and subsequent lower gas burning. Over the summer months, South Korea’s gas-fired power generation fell 9% year-over-year to an average 13 GWh. For reference, Korean coal usage is so far up 18% in 2026 to date, averaging almost 15 GWh throughout January-July. Milder summer temperatures also softened electricity demand during the usual summer and early-autumn peak.

When it comes to competing with European buyers of US LNG, Alaska offers a tangible advantage. US Gulf Coast shipments to South Korea around the Cape of Good Hope take approximately 40–45 days, with current freight estimated at around $42,000/day. Panama offers a shorter route, but transit restrictions, queues and canal charges make it less attractive even in comparison to the Cape of Good Hope route. In contrast, possible Nikiski-to-Korea voyages would take roughly 10–12 days, avoiding canals and major chokepoints.

However, South Korea can already access Pacific LNG without financing Alaska’s pipeline. LNG Canada, the venture backed by Shell, Petronas, PetroChina, Mitsubishi and Korea’s own KOGAS, began exports in July 2025 and already shipped 1 million tonnes to Asian markets this September. Its upcoming expansion to 28 million tonnes annually (approved late last month) would increase competition for the buyers Alaska needs. Shorter voyages are valuable, but Alaska has no monopoly on them.

Seoul’s caution therefore predates the current negotiations. Last year, South Korea’s trade and industry minister described Alaska LNG as high risk and an unviable investment option. However, tariff pressure has made repeating that judgment diplomatically harder, without resolving the underlying economics.

For now, Seoul will most likely try to gain time before making a diplomatically risky announcement of not participating in the project. Trump’s signalling of Korean investment into an unspecified $8.4 billion enhanced oil recovery project could offer this alternative. Such projects use injections of steam, gases or chemicals to extract additional crude. Too few details are available to assess this proposal, but it could give Seoul another way to demonstrate investment cooperation while limiting exposure to the commercially questionable Alaska LNG project.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Who-Is-Going-to-Pay-for-Alaska-LNG.html

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Precious Metals

South African Gold Giant Buys into BHP’s Shuttered Australian Nickel Assets as Global Oversupply Reshapes Mining

South African mining company Gold Fields has agreed to acquire BHP’s shuttered Kambalda nickel concentrator in Western Australia, adding processing infrastructure and exploration rights to its established presence in the region.

Gold Fields has agreed to acquire BHP’s Kambalda nickel concentrator. A small toy figure and gold imitation are seen in front of the Gold Fields logo in this illustration taken November 19, 2021 REUTERS \Dado Ruvic

  • Gold Fields has agreed to acquire BHP’s Kambalda nickel concentrator and associated exploration assets.
  • The South African company will assess possible uses for gold and nickel processing.
  • BHP suspended its Western Australian nickel operations after global supply overwhelmed the market.
  • The purchase price is undisclosed, and completion is expected in 2027.

The agreement also covers associated mining tenements and mineral rights. Neither company disclosed the purchase price.

Gold Fields will assess whether the plant can support gold or nickel processing. It has not committed to reopening the facility or announced a production timetable.

The acquisition comes after Northern Star Resources rejected Gold Fields’ separate $27 billion takeover approach, leaving the South African miner pursuing other opportunities in Australia.

According to BHP’s 7 October announcement⁠, the transaction remains subject to conditions, including regulatory approvals. Completion is expected during 2027, with BHP continuing to manage the asset until ownership transfers.

A new use for idle infrastructure

Gold Fields already operates in Western Australia’s Goldfields region, including the St Ives gold mine near Kambalda.

Buying existing infrastructure could give it additional processing options, but that depends on the technical assessment and the cost of bringing the plant into use. The company has not announced a conversion project.

“These are highly strategic assets located in a region where we have operated and invested for many years,” Gold Fields’ Australian operations executive Craig Bradshaw said in remarks carried by International Mining.

The company said gold production remains its core focus. The acquisition therefore should not be treated as a confirmed shift away from gold into a new nickel-production business.

Nickel slump creates an opening

BHP announced the suspension of its Western Australian nickel business in July 2024 after excess global supply weakened the market.

The Kambalda sale covers only part of that business. BHP’s remaining Western Australian nickel assets remain suspended, with their future due for review by February 2027.


https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/south-african-gold-giant-buys-into-bhps-shuttered-australian-nickel-assets-as-global/c5v5zjb

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Base Metals

Antofagasta Centinela Strike Raises Copper Risks

What happened at Centinela

Two unions at Antofagasta Plc's Centinela mine wrapped up government-brokered negotiations without an agreement, and the walkout began at 8 a.m. local time. The action involves more than 700 workers, or about 22% of the site's workforce. Union leaders say the stoppage will limit operations, while the company stated in a release that "projected production remains unchanged." It is the first strike at Centinela and only the second ever at the company.

What triggered the walkout

Union representatives cite gaps in pay and benefits among employees performing identical roles in different unions as the main sticking point. Antofagasta said it offered a 2% real-terms raise to base pay, plus a per-worker 22.5 million pesos end-of-dispute bonus, equal to $22,900.

Copper strikes move global metal prices within days. Market Briefs tracks commodities free every weekday.

The broader copper backdrop

The Centinela strike lands as Chile's mining sector navigates rising labor tensions and prices near recent peaks. Supervisors at BHP Group's Escondida mine, the world's largest copper operation, are also in government-mediated talks to avoid a strike. Any lengthy interruption at Centinela would feed into supply worries in Chile, where production has already been hampered this year by adverse weather and operational setbacks. Prices are also supported by how hard it is for the industry to bring on additional supply, with demand rising from data centers and grid upgrades.

Why it matters for your money

One mine can account for a meaningful slice of world supply.


https://www.briefs.co/news/antofagasta-s-centinela-workers-strike-unions-warn-of-curbs/

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World’s Largest Cobalt Producer Spends Billions on Diesel. A $300 Million Project in Congo Could Save Them $1 Billion a Year

Miners in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Copperbelt could save about $1 billion annually by replacing diesel-powered generation with imported electricity under a planned $300 million transmission project.

Artisanal miners work at a copper-cobalt mine in the south of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. REUTERS/Aaron Ross

  • A $300 million transmission project aims to save Congo’s Copperbelt miners $1 billion annually by switching from costly diesel to imported electricity.
  • Persistent power shortages have restricted mining growth in Congo and Zambia, both global leaders in copper and cobalt production.
  • Backed by Gridworks Development Partners and Trafigura, the project will link Congo’s mining region to the Southern African Power Pool, enabling cross-border electricity trading.
  • A 200 km transmission line between Zambia and Congo will deliver up to 550 MW to a mining hub currently facing a huge power deficit.

The project comes as persistent power shortages continue to constrain mining expansion, processing and investment in Congo and neighbouring Zambia. Congo is the world’s largest cobalt producer and second-largest copper producer, while Zambia ranks second in Africa for copper production.

Britain-backed investor Gridworks Development Partners and Singapore-based commodities trader Trafigura are backing the project, which will connect Congo’s Copperbelt to the Southern African Power Pool. This regional electricity market links national grids across southern Africa and enables cross-border electricity trading, according to Reuters.

New power link targets mining deficit

The partners plan to finance, build and operate a 200-kilometre transmission line between Kalumbila in Zambia and Kolwezi in Congo. The connection would allow up to 550 megawatts of electricity to reach a mining region facing a power deficit of more than 1 gigawatt.

The project is expected to have 700 MW of thermal capacity, with the potential to expand beyond 1 GW. Gridworks will serve as lead equity investor and majority shareholder in the Kalumbila-Kolwezi Interconnector Project, alongside Congo’s state investment fund FIS-RDC, Congolese power trader EnPower and Trafigura.

The project has secured the required concessions, licences and authorisations and is now in its final development stage, although no launch date has been announced.

Lower power costs could boost mining

Reliable electricity is critical as Congo seeks to expand copper and cobalt production, refining and local processing.

Industry studies indicate miners could collectively save about $1 billion annually by replacing diesel generators with imported electricity, largely because of the high cost of fuel-powered generation.


https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/markets/worlds-largest-cobalt-producer-spends-billions-on-diesel-a-dollar300-million-project/sxky2vq

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Steel

Northern European HRC Rises Slightly on Higher Mill Offers; Italian Prices Decline Despite Tight Supply

Local steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in Northern Europe edged up slightly as mills tried to achieve higher levels, while prices in Italy declined on the latest deals despite limited supply in the market, sources told Fastmarkets on Wednesday October 7.

In Northern Europe, sources said demand was still subdued, so price increases were not accepted as quickly as mills expected.

A buyer source reported an indication of workable prices in the Benelux area at €730 ($821) per tonne ex-works, saying this level was still possible to achieve. The same source said offers from mills in the area were at €740-750 per tonne ex-works.

A second buyer reported an offer at €760 per tonne ex-works. No other price points were received during the day.

Due to one source accounting for more than 50% of the input on Wednesday, prices collected in the previous day were copied over to the latest index calculation, in line with Fastmarkets methodology.

On Tuesday, a seller source reported deals within the range of €740-760 per tonne ex-works, and a buyer reported an indication of tradable level at €740 per tonne ex-works.

Thus, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe was calculated at €746.88 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €1.88 per tonne from €745 per tonne on Tuesday.

The index was stable week on week but up by €4.38 per tonne month on month.

In Italy, a producer in the market said that the latest prices confirmed in transactions were within €750-760 per tonne delivered for November-December delivery, which nets back to around €730-745 per tonne ex-works after deducting delivery costs of €15-20 per tonne.

The same source said that they were not seeing higher levels achieved in the market yet, “even if the offers are definitely higher.” The producer added that it was offering minor December allocation at €750 per tonne ex-works, with bids €10-20 per tonne below this level.

However, this fell outside the Fastmarkets methodology delivery window of up to six weeks, so the December prices were not considered in Wednesday’s index calculation.

Despite the statement from the producer about limited increases achieved in the market, a buyer indicated workable HRC prices in Italy within the range of €740-750 per tonne ex-works, in line with previous transactions heard in the market on Monday October 5.

As a result, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €741.25 per tonne on October 7, down by €3.75 per tonne from €745 per tonne on October 6.

The index was down by €2.50 per tonne week on week but up by €13.75 per tonne month on month.


https://eurometal.net/northern-european-hrc-rises-slightly-on-higher-mill-offers-italian-prices-decline-despite-tight-supply/

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