Mark Latham Commodity Equity Intelligence Service

Monday 21 August 2023
Background Stories on www.commodityintelligence.com

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Featured

China And India: Agriculture.

(Adds surge in Brazil imports in first paragraph; figures for corn imports, by country, from paragraph 7)

BEIJING, Aug 20 (Reuters) - China's soybean imports from the United States tumbled 62% in July from a year earlier while shipments from Brazil, its top supplier, surged 32%, data showed on Sunday, spurred by a bumper crop and lower prices in the Latin American country.

China, the world's top buyer of soybeans, imported 142,129 metric tons of the oilseed from the United States in July, down from 377,192 tons a year earlier, data from the General Administration of Customs showed.

However, the United States remained China's second-largest soybean supplier, accounting for 31.9% of China's total soybean imports in the first seven months of the year.

For the January-to-July period, soybean shipments from the United States rose 13.9% year-on-year to 19.85 million tons.

China's soybean imports from Brazil rose 32.4% in July from a year earlier to 9.23 million tons, as Chinese buyers took advantage of cheaper prices.

From January to July, China imported 38.9 million metric tons from Brazil, up 12.2% on year. Brazil accounted for 63.5% of China's soybean imports year to date.

For corn, July imports from the U.S. rose 15.2% year-on-year to 1.74 million metric tons, while second-largest supplier Ukraine shipped 1.1 million metric tons.

Corn imports from Bulgaria reached 393,655 metric tons in July, making it the third-largest supplier.

Brazilian corn arrivals ranked fourth in July at 115,500 million metric tons. Brazil's maize exports via southern ports rose 221% in the first half of the year amid Ukraine's absence from the market. (Reporting by Ningwei Qin and Andrew Hayley; Editing by Edmund Klamann)


https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/China-July-soybean-imports-from-US-tumble-Brazil-shipments-surge--44656705/

MGL Comment - Mon 03:56, Aug 21 2023

How much damage have the typhoons done to China's wheat/rice and corn crops?

China was inundated with heavy rain and flooding in northern and northeastern regions in recent weeks brought by storms from Typhoons Doksuri and Khanun.

The extreme weather may lead to severe pest infestations that target cotton, corn and soybean in some areas, the ministry said.

Here's the official version:

The rains have affected 3.87 million mu (258,000 hectares), almost 2%, of the sown area in Heilongjiang, China's largest grain producing province, state broadcaster reported last week.

The ministry has maintained the 2023/24 corn output estimate unchanged at 282.34 million metric tons, even though it said some producing areas had been flooded.

The path of typhoons this year:


At least 5 of China's top Agricultural provinces were hit by two typhoons. We have repeated reports that the authorities deliberately flooded rural land around the major cities with significant, multiple dam releases. 

China's Ag production is around $1tn annually; imports run at ~$200bn annually. It follows that each 1% loss of crops to floods adds around 5% to the import bill. 

This natural disaster occurs at a time when India is limiting exports due to a weak, late monsoon:


Rice prices in Baguio City increase on August 10, 2023 due to a problem in supply caused by typhoon #EgayPH and the continuous rains in Benguet. The cheapest rice is currently priced at P40 per kilo at the Baguio City Market.


 

India acted on Onions over the weekend:


New Delhi: The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) on Saturday (August 20) imposed a 40% customs duty on onions being exported from India, Livemint reported. This move comes in the light of rising local prices of the vegetable.

This tax, the CBIC said, being imposed in “public interest”, will be in place till December 31, 2023.

“The export duty will make Indian onions more expensive than those from Pakistan, China, and Egypt. This will naturally lead to lower exports and aid in reducing local prices,” Ajit Shah, an exporter based in Mumbai, told Reuters.

The average wholesale onion price in key markets has jumped nearly 20% from July to August, to Rs 2,400 per 100 kg, according to the agency. There is concern that erratic rainfall and weather patterns will further affect production.


Onions are essential in India. 

Rice is already breaking out, and there's certainly a case that this could tighten Ag markets across the board. 


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Macro

Prolong drought caused traffic jam in the Panama Canal

2023 August 20 16:14

Prolong drought caused traffic jam in the Panama Canal

More than 200 ships are stuck in Panama Canal

For a long time, Panama Canal has been suffering from a prolonged drought. The authorities limited the number of ship crossings and even closed the Canal temporarily. However, drought, accompanied by water conservation efforts, led to a backlog of ships trying to pass through one of the most vital shipping lanes in the world, Marine Insight said.

Per the Wall Street Journal, over 200 ships on both sides of the Canal are waiting to pass through. The Panama Canal Authority issued an advisory to shippers mentioning that it is reducing the ship crossings to 32 a day, down from an average of 36 during normal conditions.

Some vessels on the strategic waterway are rerouting traffic to avoid the backlog, and most stranded ships are bulk cargo ships or gas carriers.

Tim Hansen, chief commercial officer at Dorian LPG, which operates over 20 large gas carriers, stated, ‘The delays are changing by the day. Once you decide to go, there is no point to return or deviate so you can get stuck.’

The rainy season has come late to the region, and as the canal needs three times as much water as New York City each day, it depends almost entirely on rainfall for replenishment.

“If there isn’t enough rain, ship transits are cut and those that cross pay hefty premiums that boost transport costs for cargo owners such as American oil and gas exporters and Asian importers,” Wall Street Journal reported.

These unwanted developments could add pressure to consumer goods prices.

Panama Canal’s administrator, Ricaurte Vasquez Morales, said that the restrictions could remain for the rest of the year, adding it could lead to a loss of $200 million in revenue.

Per the Wallstreet Journal, Panama has contacted the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers, the agency that constructed the canal in the early 1900s. It has kept $2 billion for the next decade “to divert up to four rivers into the waterway, in addition to the three that already feed it.”

“We had two ships that couldn’t book, and it was quite expensive,” Lars Oestergaard Nielsen, A.P. Moller-Maersk’s head of customer delivery in the Americas, told the Journal. “We went to an auction and paid $900,000 on top of the $400,000 normal toll fee for each ship to cross.”

Vessels usually pass through the canal at a 50 ft draft, which has been reduced to 44 ft. Due to lower water depths, massive ships must empty some containers before passing through.

https://en.portnews.ru/news/352115/

MGL Comment - Mon 08:31, Aug 21 2023

The Panama Canal Authority issued an advisory to shippers mentioning that it is reducing the ship crossings to 32 a day, down from an average of 36 during normal conditions.

Painful, and separates the Atlantic from Pacific basins for LNG and LPG.  

“We had two ships that couldn’t book, and it was quite expensive,” Lars Oestergaard Nielsen, A.P. Moller-Maersk’s head of customer delivery in the Americas, told the Journal. “We went to an auction and paid $900,000 on top of the $400,000 normal toll fee for each ship to cross.”

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Spotlight on Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Next Week

Spotlight on Jackson Hole Economic Symposium Next Week

Market sentiment remained negative this week, with concerns about potential tightening by the Federal Reserve and signs of weakness in the Chinese economy. The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s meeting in July revealed their worries about inflation and the possibility of further policy tightening. Positive economic data supported the notion that interest rates may stay higher for longer.

The US dollar gained support as Fitch Ratings warned of a potential downgrade for major US lenders and reconsidered China’s sovereign credit score. As a result, COMEX Gold fell to its lowest point since June. Investment demand for gold also dropped, with SPDR Gold holdings falling below 900 tonnes for the first time this year.

Crude oil’s seven-week winning streak ended, along with losses in base metals, due to a weak property market, weak consumer spending, and a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook impacting demand. The People’s Bank of China’s efforts to support the domestic currency helped metals recover from multi-month lows.

NYMEX Crude oil faced strong resistance at $85 per barrel and corrected to $79 per barrel. A hold at this support level may indicate bullish momentum, while a breach could lead to further decline.

China’s attempts to stimulate the economy have been relatively ineffective due to a lack of specific details about their plans. Traders are looking for a potential rate cut in China’s loan prime rate following a recent rate cut for one-year medium-term lending facility loans.

Looking ahead to next week, the focus will be on flash manufacturing PMI figures and the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The symposium, organized by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, brings central bank leaders together to discuss global economic matters. Market participants will be keenly observing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on August 25th for insights into monetary policy outlook.

The views and investment tips expressed in this article are those of the author and not of the website or its management. Readers are advised to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions.

https://www.claytoncountyregister.com/news2/commodity-markets-spotlight-to-be-on-flash-manufacturing-pmi-figures-jackson-hole-economic-symposium-next-week/117558/

MGL Comment - Mon 08:04, Aug 21 2023

Bloomberg Survey this morning:


Ten year US bond breaks higher. 

The rule is that commodity equity outperforms when the risk-free rate is rising. We're looking at energy and agriculture as interesting.  

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Oil

Russia remains China's top crude supplier in July despite narrower discounts

Crude oil tankers lie at anchor in Nakhodka Bay near the port city of Nakhodka, Russia, December 4, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights

BEIJING, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Russia remained China's largest crude supplier in July, Chinese government data showed on Sunday, even as Russian shipments fall from all-time highs on narrower discounts and rising domestic demand crimps Russian exports.

Arrivals from Russia were up 13% from the same month last year to 8.06 million metric tons in July, or 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from the General Administration of Customs.

For the first seven months of the year, Russian arrivals were up 25% from a year earlier to 60.66 million tons.

Shipments from Saudi Arabia, at 5.65 million tons, were down 14% from a year earlier and 31% from June.

Saudi exports to Asian refiners had been expected to fall in July, as Riyadh raised the July official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude to Asian buyers to a six-month high. Saudi Arabia also announced plans for an extra output reduction in July, cutting output to 9 million bpd from 9.96 million bpd in June.

Despite continuing Western sanctions and a price cap on Russian shipments, Russian ESPO grade crude has increasingly traded closer to benchmark grades, as strong demand from Indian and Chinese buyers erodes the sanctions discount.

July-delivery ESPO shipments were priced at a $5-$6 per barrel discount to the ICE Brent benchmark, versus $8.50 against ICE Brent for shipments delivered in March, according to trading sources.

Stronger domestic demand in Russia was also expected to lead to an overall decline in Russian exports. Shipments from western Russian ports in July were estimated to fall 18% month-on-month, reflecting resurgent domestic refining demand.

Chinese refiners use intermediary traders to handle shipping and insurance of Russian crude to avoid violating Western sanctions.

Alternative suppliers have seen their shares grow to make up for lower Saudi and Russian shipments. Angola's shipments grew 27% from the previous month to 574,581 bpd in July.

Continuing the previous month's trend, U.S. exports to China jumped fivefold from a year earlier despite geopolitical tensions, as U.S. WTI output continues to surge amid OPEC+ supply cuts. U.S. crude shipments to China totalled 161,275 bpd in July, falling from 742,824 bpd in June as arbitrage margins narrowed.

Imports from Malaysia rose 16% from a year earlier to 911,926 bpd in July. Malaysia is often used as an intermediary point for sanctioned cargoes from Iran and Venezuela.

Here is the detailed trade breakdown, with volumes in million tons and on-year percentage change calculations by Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-remains-chinas-top-crude-supplier-july-despite-narrower-discounts-2023-08-20/

MGL Comment - Mon 06:29, Aug 21 2023

Stronger domestic demand in Russia was also expected to lead to an overall decline in Russian exports. Shipments from western Russian ports in July were estimated to fall 18% month-on-month, reflecting resurgent domestic refining demand.

Or plausibly, Russia has been shipping from inventory? Though Russian inventory capacity has always been thought inadequate.  Whatever, it's peaked, and that's been worth $10 on Oil. 




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Oil and Gas

Serbia will increase supplies of Russian natural gas to Hungary if Ukraine pulls out of transit deal

Hungary has struck a deal with Serbia that could bring increased shipments of Russian natural gas through the Balkan country if Ukraine ends a gas transit agreement with Moscow

BUDAPEST, Hungary -- Serbia will provide Hungary with increased shipments of Russian natural gas if Ukraine follows through on ending a gas transit agreement with Russia, Hungary's foreign minister said Sunday.

Speaking in a taped message, Peter Szijjarto said Serbia's president, Aleksandar Vučić, had met with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest, and assured him that Serbia would be able to supply more Russian gas to Hungary if Kyiv declines to extend an agreement allowing its transit across Ukrainian territory.

“We've heard in recent days that Ukraine would like to terminate the previously concluded natural gas transit agreement with Russia,” Szijjarto said. “Today, the Serbian president made it clear that if Hungary would like to increase natural gas shipments through Serbia to Hungary, then Serbia can ensure the necessary shipment capacities.”

The deal came after Ukraine's energy minister, German Galushchenko, indicated Kyiv was unlikely to extend the transit agreement which brings Russian natural gas to European countries via Ukraine. That agreement is set to expire next year.

Hungary gets roughly 80% of its natural gas from Russia — primarily via the TurkStream pipeline which passes through Serbia to its south — and has fought vigorously against sanctions on Russian energy proposed by the European Union. Even after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Hungary has sought to streamline its access to Russian fossil fuels, arguing they were essential to its energy security.

During a visit to Moscow in April, Foreign Minister Szijjarto said Russian state energy company Gazprom had agreed to allow Hungary, if needed, to import quantities of natural gas beyond the amounts agreed to in a long-term contract concluded in 2021.

On Sunday, Szijjarto said that Orbán had also met with the president of Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimuhamedow, and expressed interest in Hungary becoming a future destination and transit point for future gas exports from Turkmenistan.

Orbán is hosting the leaders of Turkey, Serbia, Bosnia, Qatar and a number of Central Asian nations on Sunday as the World Athletics Championships take place in Budapest.

The lineup of guests, devoid of any leaders from Hungary’s allies in the EU and NATO, reflects Orbán’s push to increase diplomatic and political cooperation with autocracies in the Balkans and Asia.


https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/serbia-increase-supplies-russian-natural-gas-hungary-ukraine-102405514

MGL Comment - Mon 08:27, Aug 21 2023

Far-right mayor hails success of Hungary-Serbia border fence


Fascinating politics, but how exactly does Russian gas get to Serbia, except through Greece?  

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Unions give Woodside notice of intent to strike at gas platforms in Australia

By Alasdair Pal

SYDNEY, Aug 20 (Reuters) - Unions at Woodside Energy Group's WDS.AX North West Shelf offshore gas platforms on Sunday announced plans to strike within seven days, which could eventually disrupt shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from top global exporter Australia.

Unions are required by Australian law to give companies seven days' notice in advance of any industrial action, but can still elect to call off any action before then.

The strike threat escalates a long-running dispute between Woodside and workers over pay and conditions on its North West Shelf gas platforms, which feed Australia's biggest LNG plant.

The Offshore Alliance, which combines the Maritime Union of Australia and Australian Workers' Union, said in a Facebook post on Sunday it had "unanimously endorsed" giving Woodside seven days notice to strike if its bargaining claims are not met by close of business on August 23.

"They will lose (billions) of LNG export revenue if they take us on, as our members are up for the fight," the post said.

Some 99% of Woodside workers granted unions permission to call a range of industrial action, including work stoppages, after Australia's industrial umpire, the Fair Work Commission, gave permission for "protected industrial action" to go ahead.

The Offshore Alliance is also representing workers at Chevron's Gorgon and Wheatstone LNG facilities. Workers there on Friday began voting on whether to grant unions permission to call for strike action, with the first results due by August 24 at the latest.

Together, Woodside and Chevron's facilities supply about 10% of the global LNG market, and concerns about a strike have spurred volatility in European gas prices over fears the move would fuel competition between Asian and European buyers for cargoes.

(Reporting by Alasdair Pal in Sydney Editing by Sonali Paul)

((Alasdair.Pal@thomsonreuters.com; +61 291 717 228; Reuters Messaging: alasdair.pal.reuters.com@reuters.net))

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/unions-give-woodside-notice-of-intent-to-strike-at-gas-platforms-in-australia

MGL Comment - Mon 08:17, Aug 21 2023

announced plans to strike within seven days

Some 99% of Woodside workers granted unions permission

Which is firming LNG prices now.  

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Average SD County Gas Price Records Largest Daily Increase Since Oct. 1

A Union 76 gas pump in San Diego. Photo credit: Staff photo

The average price of a gallon of self-serve regular gasoline in San Diego County recorded its largest daily increase since Oct. 1 Saturday, rising 3.9 cents to $5.308, its highest amount since Nov. 20.

The average price has risen for 26 consecutive days, increasing 35.9 cents, including 2.6 cents Friday, according to figures from the AAA and the Oil Price Information Service.

The average price is 11.8 cents more than one week ago, 35.1 cents higher than one month ago and two-tenths of a cent above what it was one year ago. It has dropped $1.127 since rising to a record $6.435 on Oct. 5.

The national average price dropped for the second consecutive day following a run of 26 increases in 30 days totaling 31.2 cents, decreasing four- tenths of a cent to $3.869. It is 2.3 cents more than one week ago and 30 cents higher than one month ago, but 4.9 cents less than one year ago.

The national average price has dropped $1.147 since rising to a record $5.016 on June 14, 2022.

The potential for hurricane developments and forecasts of an expanding heat dome over Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas next week could push oil prices higher, according to Andrew Gross, an AAA national public relations manager. Refineries in those states might have to curb production to deal with the sizzling temperatures, Gross said.

The cost of oil accounts for more than 50% of the pump price, according to Gross.

–City News Service


https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2023/08/19/average-sd-county-gas-price-records-largest-daily-increase-since-oct-1/

MGL Comment - Mon 06:39, Aug 21 2023

We've had several retail gasoline price rises recorded by the press, above from California, but note the Indian and Phillipino press have also been reporting similar. 

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Alternative Energy

Metal Battery Production Begins

The world of clean energy generation is full of promises and claims, but many of these technologies never make it to production. Whether it's due to cost issues, production challenges, or scalability limitations, we are often left disappointed with industry breakthroughs that never materialize. Multi-layered solar panels, wave and tidal energy, and hydrogen fuel cells are all real technologies, but they struggle to surpass lower cost, simpler, and proven alternatives. However, one technology seems to be defying this trend - the liquid metal battery developed by startup Ambri.

Ambri's battery technology is already poised to disrupt the market, with installation costs at about half the price of lithium ion batteries, which currently stand at around $405 per kilowatt-hour. The construction method of Ambri's batteries is also simpler, utilizing molten metal electrodes and a molten salt electrolyte. Not only is this design more durable, but it is also non-flammable and resistant to degradation over time. According to the company's testing results, the battery is expected to retain 95% of its capacity even after 20 years of use. The only potential challenge in scaling this technology could be sourcing antimony, one of the required metals for construction.

While Ambri can produce their batteries for $180 to $250 per kilowatt-hour, they still need to further reduce costs to around $20 to compete with "base load" power plants. However, the company projects that their costs will significantly decrease and reach this target by 2030. Achieving this milestone would set electrical grids on a path towards being powered entirely by renewable energy sources. It's worth noting that liquid metal batteries are not the only nontraditional battery technology attempting to solve this problem. Another promising energy storage technology on the horizon is phase-change materials.

http://www.futurecar.com/article-7849-1.html

MGL Comment - Mon 08:54, Aug 21 2023

full of promises and claims, but many of these technologies never make it to production.

True.

Ambri's battery technology is already poised to disrupt the market, with installation costs at about half the price of lithium ion batteries,

Ambri has some way to go before it makes it to market in a significant way, but this is a milestone. 

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ACWA Power-led consortium attains financial closure for Al-Shuaibah solar projects

RIYADH: In a major boost to Saudi Arabia’s sustainability efforts, an ACWA Power-led consortium has secured financial closure for the Al-Shuaibah solar projects, with an investment of $2.37 billion, the company said in a press statement.

Touted to be the world’s largest solar project with a capacity of 2,061 megawatts, Al-Shuaibah 1 and Al-Shuaibah 2 projects, located in Jeddah are expected to be operational by 2025, it added.

Once completed, the solar project is expected to provide power to approximately 450,000 households, as stated in the press release.

ACWA Power CEO Marco Arcelli, said: “Securing financing for this groundbreaking project marks a significant step toward achieving Saudi Arabia’s clean energy goals, in alignment with the National Renewable Energy Program, which aims to generate 50 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030.”

The consortium, in addition to ACWA Power, includes Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund unit Badeel and the Saudi Arabian Oil Co., also known as Saudi Aramco.

“We are truly proud of this milestone and look forward to working closely with our key partners PIF, Aramco, and other contributors to successfully realize a sustainable future,” added Arcelli.

In the press release, the company stated that the senior debt financing for this plant, amounting to $1.63 billion, comprises a $450 million Saudi riyal-denominated loan from the National Development Fund on behalf of the National Infrastructure Fund. Additionally, the financing includes a $1.18 billion US-dollar-denominated commercial facility provided by a consortium of local, regional, and international banks.

Saudi Power Procurement Co. is the procurer and off-taker for the projects. The new project will be jointly owned by Badeel, which will have a 34.99 percent stake, while ACWA Power and SAPCO will hold shares of 35.01 percent and 30 percent respectively.

Husam Al-Ghailani, CEO of Badeel, said the PIF unit will continue its efforts to support the renewable energy sector in the Kingdom, and to develop 70 percent of Saudi Arabia’s renewable energy by 2030.

Mohammed Al-Qahtani, president of downstream at Saudi Aramco, added: “While oil and gas will play a major role to meet the energy demand of today and tomorrow, renewables will increasingly play a part in the energy transition to address the climate change challenges. The projects mark a significant milestone to support Aramco in achieving its decarbonization targets.”

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2358226

MGL Comment - Mon 06:53, Aug 21 2023

world’s largest solar project with a capacity of 2,061 megawatts,

Last week we reported wind auctions failing; this week, we have the world's largest solar plant, and its 2Twh. the first non-hydro Twh scale renewable plant we've recorded. 

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Uranium

Understanding Grows for Release of Treated Water from Fukushima N-Plant

WASHINGTON — Prime Minister Fumio Kishida was able to showcase growing international understanding for the planned ocean discharge of treated water from Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Inc.’s Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, at the recent summit of the leaders of Japan, the United States and South Korea.

“In order to move forward with Fukushima’s reconstruction, this is an issue that cannot be put off,” Kishida said of the release plans after Friday’s trilateral summit with U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol.

The Japanese prime minister was apparently heartened by the understanding expressed by Biden and Yoon during a series of meetings and a joint press conference at Camp David, Md., about the release of the water.

Asked at the joint press conference why he showed such understanding, Yoon did not hesitate to cite his trust in the International Atomic Energy Agency. There is strong public opinion against the discharge in South Korea, and Kishida did not bring up the treated water issue in his bilateral meeting with Yoon out of consideration for the South Korean president.

Initially, some in the Japanese government thought Yoon would not clarify his stance on the treated water issue. So Yoon making clear his respect for the IAEA report, which describes the release as being “consistent with relevant international safety standards,” raised hopes that this will provide significant momentum for the release.

During his meeting with Biden, Kishida expressed his gratitude for the United States’ support for the release of treated water. The two leaders exchanged opinions on measures to prevent the spread of misinformation regarding the discharge of the water.

China has repeatedly criticized the release plan, saying with little scientific evidence that Japan will carelessly discharge contaminated water. In South Korea, false information has been rife on the internet, including claims that radiation levels had exceeded standards.

At the bilateral meeting, Japan and the United States indicated their intention to work together on dealing with such misinformation.

“There is growing understanding in the United States and South Korea regarding the safety of treated water,” a Japanese senior government official said.

https://japannews.yomiuri.co.jp/politics/politics-government/20230820-130850/

MGL Comment - Mon 08:59, Aug 21 2023

Japan has little choice in the matter, existing storage is full. The issue for us is how the release is received, so far we've had large-scale demonstrations in Korea. So far, the west coast USA does not seem to have noticed. 

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Agriculture

Union Govt Imposes 40% Customs Duty on Onion Exports to Try and Control Domestic Price

New Delhi: The Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs (CBIC) on Saturday (August 20) imposed a 40% customs duty on onions being exported from India, Livemint reported. This move comes in the light of rising local prices of the vegetable.

This tax, the CBIC said, being imposed in “public interest”, will be in place till December 31, 2023.

“The export duty will make Indian onions more expensive than those from Pakistan, China, and Egypt. This will naturally lead to lower exports and aid in reducing local prices,” Ajit Shah, an exporter based in Mumbai, told Reuters.

The average wholesale onion price in key markets has jumped nearly 20% from July to August, to Rs 2,400 per 100 kg, according to the agency. There is concern that erratic rainfall and weather patterns will further affect production.

The Union government had earlier decided it will maintain three lakh tonne of onions in the 2023-24 season as buffer stock. In 2022-23, the government maintained 2.51 lakh tonne onion as buffer stock, ANI reported.

This is not the first trade-related measure the government has taken to try and fight inflation. The government has already placed restrictions on the export of wheat and rice. Earlier, the Union government had reduced the import duty on edible oils.


https://thewire.in/trade/union-govt-imposes-40-customs-duty-on-onion-exports-to-try-and-control-domestic-price

MGL Comment - Mon 05:18, Aug 21 2023

Onion  pricing is important in India. 

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Precious Metals

Aya Gold & Silver expands 2023 exploration program in Morocco – The North Africa Post

Aya Gold & Silver announced the expansion of its 2023 exploration program at all its holdings in Morocco. The increase includes work done at the Boumadine polymetallic project, the Zgounder silver deposit, the Zgounder Regional properties, and the recently acquired Tirzzit copper-silver property.

Aya is a Canada-based precious metals mining company, which focuses on the exploration, development, production, and acquisition of precious metals mining projects.

At Boumadine, located between Tinejdad and Rissani in the Southeast of Morocco, an additional 40,000 meters of diamond drilling have been added in the 2023 program, with the aim to expand the strike length mineralization to the south, to test a new drilling zone in the northwest where massive sulphide is associated with a large, brecciated zone that currently extends 1.5 kilometers, as well complete infill drilling. Six drill rigs are currently active at this site, with the program now totaling 76,000 meters.

An additional 7,300 meters of diamond drilling, located in the eastern foothills of the High Atlas Mountains, has been added to the Zgounder Regional project. Aya intends to explore the probable extension of the Zgounder deposit east of the granophyre, and to test the southern rhyolite contact with the volcanic sediments, and to test a new zone in the Tourchkal region.

Finally, an additional 3,000 meters was added to the Zgounder silver deposit to follow up on 2023 drill results east of Zgounder and in the southern part of the open pit.

At the Tirzzit property, a copper mine located just 25 kilometers from the Zgounder property, Aya is expected to conduct an initial stream sediment and mapping campaign as well as a high-resolution hyperspectral survey. Aya acquired this mine in June of 2023 from an undisclosed company for approximately $5 million.

“We are very encouraged with Boumadine exploration results over the past 12 months and are more than doubling our 2023 drill exploration program for this project to 76,000 meters. We continue to grow the strike, which now extends 3.8 kilometers remaining open in all directions. This holds tremendous potential and requires additional drilling to ensure that we add tonnage and maximize value for all stakeholders,” said President & CEO Benoit La Salle.

https://northafricapost.com/70540-aya-gold-silver-expands-2023-exploration-program-in-morocco.html

MGL Comment - Mon 08:40, Aug 21 2023

$661m mcap, the market takes this one seriously:

Morocco:


The expansion is worth half the market cap:

But the existing mine produces, maybe $20m of cash flow, which costs us $300m odd, not obviously good value. 


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Base Metals

Police kick off Operation Shanela in KZN, seize R2.3 million worth of stolen copper

KZN SAPS spokesperson, Colonel Robert Netshiunda, said just a few hours after Operation Shanela was launched, officers from the Economic Infrastructure Task Team seized copper cables stored in a truck, parked in an Isipingo warehouse.

Police in KwaZulu-Natal have secured the arrest of an illegal scrapyard owner and four others and seized stolen copper valued at R2.3 million, effectively kicking off Operation Shanela in the province. 

Operation Shanela which was officially launched on Saturday, in Durban has produced desired results when four people, including an illegal scrapyard owner were arrested in Isipingo on Saturday.

Police in KwaZulu-Natal have secured the arrest of an illegal scrapyard owner and four others and seized stolen copper.

KZN SAPS spokesperson, Colonel Robert Netshiunda, said just a few hours after the operation was launched, officers from the Economic Infrastructure Task Team gathered intelligence about copper cables stored in a truck, parked in an Isipingo warehouse.

“Officers discovered that an illegal scrapyard was in operation. A search inside the yard resulted in the recovery of copper cables and bus bars,” he said.

Netshiunda said the owner failed to account for the illegal copper cables and the bus bars stored in his yard.

“He and other three people who were working at the warehouse were arrested for possession of suspected stolen property. More charges related to economic sabotage are likely to be added as investigations continue,” Netshiunda added.

The arrested suspects will appear in the local magistrate’s court on Monday.

Minister of Police General Bheki Cele, the National Police Commissioner, General Fannie Masemola together with Provincial Commissioner, Lieutenant General Nhlanhla Mkhwanazi and his management team led the provincial launch of Operation Shanela in the province.

https://www.africannewsagency.com/news/police-kick-off-operation-shanela-in-kzn-seize-r2-3-million-worth-of-stolen-copper-2159840f-3480-4dbe-a6e5-5fe9f8f44440/

MGL Comment - Mon 08:33, Aug 21 2023

Police in KwaZulu-Natal have secured the arrest of an illegal scrapyard owner and four others and seized stolen copper valued at R2.3 million

Traditionally, this is a symptom of expensive copper, ie. more peak than the trough. But, we've had pushback, and it may be more related to the situation in emerging, where certain countries have failing economies, e.g. South Africa.  

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Northern researchers land funding for green mining initiative

MIRARCO Mining Innovation receive $280,000 from industry innovation network

Sudbury’s MIRARCO Mining Innovation has received $280,000 in grant money from the Mining Innovation Commercialization Accelerator (MICA) Network.

The funding is earmarked to help develop a pilot plant in Sudbury that uses a biotechnology process to extract valuable metals out of waste piles at mine sites while simultaneously cleaning up the environment.

MIRARCO’s industry partner, BacTech Environment Corp. announced the news on Aug. 14.

Using a proprietary bioleaching process, BacTech and MIRARCO want to test this technology in the Sudbury basin which hosts 100 million tonnes of pyrroholite concentrate. Most of it is held by the big mining companies Vale and Glencore in special tailings areas. The metals in the waste piles, like nickel and cobalt, were not able to be extracted during the conventional smelting and refining process.

A pilot plant using a bioleaching process using native bacteria is under development in Sudbury.

BacTech said last year that it estimates there’s US$22 billion worth of untapped nickel in the Sudbury basin, based on the market price for nickel a year ago which stood at US$27,000 per tonne. The tailings are estimated to contain 0.80 per nickel and 0.03 per cent cobalt.

The pyrrhotite tailings used in the testing will be provided to MIRARCO by Vale.

MIRARCO President-CEO Nadia Mykytczuk is working with BacTech’s scientific team on the pilot plant.

“Focusing on ‘Made in Canada’ scientific solutions for waste mine management makes sense, and bioleaching is well positioned to complement modern mining practices and help extract critical minerals from waste,” said Mykytczuk in a statement.

MICA is a program focused on developing initiatives for the commercialization of mining technology to increase productivity and sustainability within the mining sector.


https://www.timminstoday.com/local-news/northern-researchers-land-funding-for-green-mining-initiative-7409428

MGL Comment - Mon 07:05, Aug 21 2023

Sudbury’s MIRARCO Mining Innovation has received $280,000 in grant money

Subsidy.

BacTech said last year that it estimates there’s US$22 billion worth of untapped nickel in the Sudbury basin, based on the market price for nickel a year ago which stood at US$27,000 per tonne. The tailings are estimated to contain 0.80 per nickel and 0.03 per cent cobalt.

Replaces private sector VC money?

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Coal

Coal scam: CBI seeks maximum punishment for ex-steel ministry official

The CBI has sought before a Delhi court seven-year jail term for a former official of the Ministry of Steel, who has been convicted in a case related to alleged irregularities in the allocation of a coal block in Chhattisgarh.

The central probe agency on Saturday urged Special Judge Arun Bhardwaj to hand over maximum punishment of seven years to Gautam Kumar Basak, former executive secretary, JPC (Joint Plant Committee), Ministry of Steel.

The CBI told the court that the convict did not deserve any leniency, claiming he had committed a very serious offence.

The judge will pronounce the sentence in the matter on August 22.

In the 14th conviction in the coal scam, the judge on August 18 held Basak guilty of corruption in the allocation of Vijay Central Coal Block.

According to the prosecution, an allegation was made against Prakash Industries Ltd., which had applied for the coal block in January 2007, that it had furnished false information about its capacity.

Also Read Scam 2003: Who was Abdul Karim Telgi, and what was the Stamp Paper Scam? CIL coking coal production sees quantum leap of 8MT, rises by 17% in FY23 Coal production increased in big way from FY22-FY23; supply improved: Icra Coal imports could be cut as CIL output rise to 1 bn tonnes: PM Prasad Aurobindo Pharma's P Sarath Reddy becomes approver in Delhi liquor case Maharashtra farmers stop onion auction at wholesale market to protest Delhi Minister Gopal Rai launches portal to lodge wildlife complaints Rajiv's stellar performance as PM earned him place among top leaders: Cong Amarnath yatra to be temporarily suspended from Aug 23 for restoration Army Chief Gen Manoj Pande offers deepest condolences to kin of 9 soldiers

The ministry had directed Basak to ascertain the truth of the allegation.

The steel ministry official, according to the prosecution, submitted a false report in 2008 supporting the claims made by the company.

The company and its director were earlier discharged by Delhi High Court in the case. The CBI's appeal against the high court order is currently pending before the Supreme Court.

"Maximum punishment may be awarded to the convict and heaviest amount of fine may be imposed upon him in the interest of justice, CBI's Deputy Legal Advisor Sanjay Kumar said in the trial court.


https://www.business-standard.com/india-news/coal-scam-cbi-seeks-maximum-punishment-for-ex-steel-ministry-official-123082000197_1.html

MGL Comment - Mon 08:50, Aug 21 2023

In the 14th conviction in the coal scam, the judge on August 18 held Basak guilty of corruption in the allocation of Vijay Central Coal Block.

Corruption punished in India. Far too few stories like this IMHO. 

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Steel, Iron Ore and Coal

China's July Australian coal imports hit 3-yr peak on healthy margins

SINGAPORE, Aug 20 (Reuters) - China's imports of Australian coal rose in July even as total coal arrivals declined, with Australia's high-quality fuel remaining cheaper than domestic supplies while demand from utilities stayed strong amid stifling hot weather.

China brought in 6.31 million metric tons of Australian coal last month, up from 4.83 million tons in June and the highest in three years, data from the General Administration of Customs showed on Sunday.

Australian shipments comprised 6.15 million tons of thermal coal used in power plants and 161,619 tons of coking coal for steelmaking.

The step up of Australian coal imports came even as China's overall coal imports eased in July by 1.5% from June.

High-quality Australian thermal coal is needed for China's power plants to meet soaring electricity consumption in summer when households increase air conditioning demand.

Australia's thermal coal with energy content of 5,500 kilocalories traded as much as 70 yuan ($9.62) a ton lower than the same quality domestic coal in the southern port of Guangzhou in July, trading sources said.

Analysts and market participants expect Australian coal imports to remain high through the year - assuming no policy changes - supported by robust import profits and lower domestic output due to stricter mine safety inspections.

Arrivals of Russian coal in July edged down to 8.99 million tons from June's record 10.65 million tons, but were up 21% from the same month last year.

Imports from Mongolia, mostly coking coal, grew 13% from June to 5.94 million tons, even as lower steel production dented demand for steelmaking raw materials.

Customs data also showed 15.83 million tons of Indonesian coal were imported in July, down from 16.32 million tons in June. ($1 = 7.2800 Chinese yuan renminbi) (Reporting by Muyu Xu; Editing by William Mallard)


https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/China-s-July-Australian-coal-imports-hit-3-yr-peak-on-healthy-margins--44656670/

MGL Comment - Mon 08:36, Aug 21 2023

China brought in 6.31 million metric tons of Australian coal last month, up from 4.83 million tons in June and the highest in three years

Note Russian supply fell:

Arrivals of Russian coal in July edged down to 8.99 million tons from June's record 10.65 million tons, but were up 21% from the same month last year.


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Legislate exportation of critical minerals – Dr Manteaw

The Co-Chair of the Ghana Ex­tractive Industries Transparency Initiative (GHEITI), Dr Stephen Manteaw, is calling for a legislation to curtail the exportation of Ghana’s critical miner­als like manganese, bauxite, lithium among others in its raw form.

According to him, the country’s vision of setting up a steel industry would be in great danger if the country continued to export these critical minerals to other countries.

He added that when these minerals got depleted the country would have to import, for instance manganese and bauxite which were key raw materials for the steel industry.

“The move away from fossil fuel as the dominant sources of energy to renewable, as a result of this, there is growing demand for minerals like lithium, manganese, nickel, iron graphite and bauxite that will be re­quired to generate renewable energy.

“As demand grows chances are that they would appreciate in value over and above our traditional mineral like gold, hence the need to develop policies and framework to regulate it for the benefit of the state,” Dr Manteaw stated.

He noted that the Ghana Integrated Iron and Steel Development Company would col­lapse if manganese and bauxite which were critical raw materials for its sustainability continued to be exported.

Dr Manteaw made these suggestions at a two-day training workshop for journalists to discuss the 2020 GHEITI reports on mining and oil/gas at Aburi in the Eastern Region on Saturday.

The training workshop organised by GHEITI was sponsored by the GIZ (Ger­man Development Cooperation) and the Ministry of Finance.

The GHEITI Co-Chair expressed con­cern about the lack of vision around what role the country expects “from our critical mineral endowment to play in our develop­ment trajectory.”

According to him Ghana must position itself to benefit from the discovery of these critical minerals by setting up value addition factories and enterprises to enable the state to generate revenues in the form of taxes as well as diversify the economy away from our dependent on mining.

“So far as these critical minerals can be depleted we need to be mindful that we are able to put the expected revenue to uses that would ensure the country continues to ben­efits from their extraction beyond the mine closure,” he noted.

He said, for instance the Arab states had been able to use revenues from oil to devel­op tourism infrastructure which had made it possible for them not to depend only on oil should it get depleted someday.


https://www.businessghana.com/site/news/general/292214/Legislate-exportation-of-critical-minerals-Dr-Manteaw

MGL Comment - Mon 07:02, Aug 21 2023

According to him, the country’s vision of setting up a steel industry would be in great danger if the country continued to export these critical minerals

Which goes to the iconic nature of domestic steel plants. Is it economic for Ghana to build a steel plant? I doubt it. 

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