Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Thursday that the oil market is discounting President Donald Trump's push to produce more crude and gas in the United States.
"We've seen a market discounting the fact that clearly it's going to be easier to produce oil and gas in the United States," Wright told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "More supply is going to come, and that's pushed down prices of oil, gasoline, home heating fuels, everything across the board, that's a win to the American people."
U.S. crude oil futures have fallen nearly 14% since Trump took office on Jan. 20. Trump has made energy a central part of his agenda with a focus on increasing oil and gas production. The administration has promised to increase leases on federal lands and waters and expedite the permitting process.
Trump's tariffs and OPEC policy have been weighing on the oil market in recent weeks as some fear the levies could lead to higher prices and slower economic growth. West Texas Intermediate on March 5 hit an intraday low of $65.22, the lowest since spring 2022, after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The president subsequently exempted goods that are compliant with the trade pact that governs North America until April 2.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said at an energy conference in Houston last week that they expect U.S. oil production to plateau in the coming years after hitting new records under the Biden administration. Wirth said Chevron is more focused on capital discipline than growing production.
"Chasing growth for growth's sake has not proven to be particularly successful for our industry," Wirth said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global Conference. "At some point, you've grown enough that you should start to move towards a plateau, and you should generate more free cash flow, rather than just more barrels."
OPEC+ is also planning to start increasing production in April, gradually bringing back 2.2 million barrels per day to a market that is facing oversupply.
Trump, Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum met with oil and gas executives Wednesday at the White House. Wright said the administration's first message was that they intend to work closely with the industry. They no longer have a "scarlet letter on their forehead," Wright said.
U.S. crude oil prices have risen modestly in recent days as Trump has launched airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen and vowed to hold Iran responsible for any future attacks by the militant group. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $67.11 per barrel Thursday morning.
Iran is an OPEC member and any escalation in tensions with the country raises fears of supply disruptions. Trump is aiming to drive Iran's oil exports to zero in an effort to push the Islamic Republic to negotiate a nuclear deal.
Asia’s sour crude demand is set to rebound from late in the second quarter as refiners return from maintenance and Exxon Mobil completes a Singapore refinery upgrade that is poised to increase its heavy oil use, traders and analysts said.
The rise in demand from some of the world’s top oil importers led by China will support Middle East benchmarks Dubai and Oman despite the prospect of more supply from OPEC+ after the group agreed to increase production from April.
“After weaker-than-expected imports from China for the beginning of the year, we expect Chinese crude demand to resume as refinery throughputs rise, along with those of other Asian refiners,” said Harry Tchilligurian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.
“This will continue to support Dubai.”
Several major Chinese refineries, mostly operated by Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec, have shut for maintenance since end-February, curbing crude demand.
About 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude processing capacity will be offline in April, with the volume dropping to about 1.2 million bpd in May, according to Reuters calculations.
Adding to demand, Exxon Mobil said in a statement on Wednesday it is on track to complete an upgrade at its Singapore refinery and petrochemical complex this year after the pandemic delayed the project.
The multi-billion-dollar Singapore residue upgrade project at its Jurong complex will raise production of low-sulphur diesel by 48,000 bpd and its capacity of base oils, a raw material for lubricants, by 20,000 bpd.
The project is expected to start operations in the third quarter, three sources familiar with the matter said.
While the plant’s crude processing capacity remains unchanged at 592,000 bpd, traders expect the refinery to use more heavy, high-sulphur crude from the Middle East, reducing its intake of U.S. light sweet crude.
More than half of the refinery’s crude imports are currently light sweet oil from the U.S., Kpler data showed.
DUBAI VS BRENT
Middle East benchmark Dubai became more expensive than Brent crude on Wednesday, creating arbitrage opportunities for Atlantic Basin oil to head to Asia.
“The strength in the medium sour crude is thus probably the center of the strength in the global crude oil market at the moment,” SEB’s chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said in a research note, adding that the first and third month price spread for Dubai is markedly stronger than comparable spreads for Brent and West Texas Intermediate.
However, Tchilligurian said further weakening of the Brent-Dubai spread may be limited going forward as Brent will draw some support from the exit of scheduled maintenance by European refiners.
(Reporting by Florence Tan and Trixie Yap; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
(Bloomberg) -- Abu Dhabi’s Lunate has launched a new venture focused on the Asia-Pacific region, part of the $105 billion asset manager’s efforts to boost its exposure to faster-growing markets.
The new investment fund, Axight, will largely focus on private equity deals in APAC, according to people familiar with the matter who declined to be identified because the information is confidential.
Axight will look to raise third-party capital over time, they said, without disclosing the initial size of the venture.
Representatives for Lunate declined to comment.
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Lunate is a subsidiary of Chimera Investment LLC, and sovereign wealth fund ADQ is an anchor client. Both Chimera and ADQ are part of Abu Dhabi royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s business empire.
The private markets-focused investment manager previously established Alterra, a climate investment fund, with an initial commitment of $30 billion from the United Arab Emirates.
It took over the management of artificial intelligence firm G42’s China-focused fund, with stakes in units of technology companies including ByteDance Ltd. and JD.com Inc., Bloomberg News reported in July.
Lunate has sealed several other deals since its inception in 2023, including an investment in the glitzy Dubai office tower ICD Brookfield Place. It’s also agreed to buy a 40% stake in Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s oil pipeline network, and acquire a minority stake in Adnoc’s gas pipeline business.
Abu Dhabi has launched multiple investment vehicles in the last couple of years including AI and advanced technology investor MGX, and XRG for international natural gas, chemicals and low-carbon energy assets.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abu-dhabi-105-billion-lunate-113959291.html
(oilnow.gy) The global oil industry is changing, with Guyana’s production rising quickly while Mexico’s output declines. This is according to Adrian Duhalt, a fellow at the Texas-Mexico Center at the Southern Methodist University, who pointed out their contrasting paths.
“Guyana’s oil production is on a promising trajectory. With substantial increases expected in the coming years, the country is poised for a significant boost in export revenue, which will not only fuel the local economy but also set up Guyana as a key player in the LATAM oil market,” Duhalt explained via LinkedIn on March 12.
Guyana’s Stabroek Block currently has three operating FPSOs: Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, and Prosperity. By 2027, three more FPSOs—ONE GUYANA, Errea Wittu, and Jaguar—will be added, pushing total production to 1.3 million barrels per day.
The Stabroek Block co-venturers also plan two more developments, Hammerhead and Longtail, bringing the total projects to eight. Hammerhead is expected to start production around 2029 and operate for 20 years, potentially increasing Guyana’s offshore capacity to 1.5 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s national oil company, Pemex, is struggling. “Despite its rich history as one of the world’s largest oil producers, the company is grappling with serious operational and financial challenges. Crude output continues to decline, and natural gas production is also under pressure. Mexico’s refineries are struggling to reach best performance, and Pemex’s mounting financial debt further complicates the situation.”
Duhalt sees an opportunity for Guyana to capture more of the global market. “Considering these contrasting trends, Guyana’s rapid oil growth is a valuable opportunity for the country to not only capture a greater global market share but potentially catch up with Mexico in terms of oil production and export revenues.”
“With strategic investments and a focus on boosting production, Guyana may soon join other oil giants of the region,” he observed.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights outlined a similar view. As the focus shifts away from Mexico, experts believe this could be a pivotal moment for Guyana to attract more investment in its expanding oil and gas sector.
ExxonMobil is the operator of the Stabroek Block, where all producing projects are located. The U.S. major has a 45% stake, alongside Hess (30%) and CNOOC (25%).
Russia's under-pressure economy and Vladimir Putin have been dealt a devastating blow after state-controlled gas giant Gazprom recorded a huge net loss of $12.89B (£9.9bn) in 2024. The company's financial woes were compounded by plummeting share prices in its subsidiary Gazpro Neft and an increased income tax rate of 25%.
This greatly raised tax liabilities for the company, leading to billions of pounds lost and follows a historic 2023 where Gazprom revealed a net loss for the first time in 25 years, recording a historic deficit of 629 billion rubles ($7.6 billion). The huge financial blow has had a knock on effect to its employees with Russian sources sharing that the gas giant's CEO, Alexei Miller, has now approved plans to cut 1,500 jobs.
This is across the parent company's headquarters in Russia and Europe's tallest skyscraper, the British-designed Lakhta Centre, also in St Petersburg. After announcing its first annual loss, Gazprom said last year that it was selling a portfolio of high-end properties, including well-known luxury hotels in Moscow. The former Chief of the National Bank of Ukraine, Kyrylo Shevchenko, has branded the business as "Russia’s most unprofitable company". Writing on X, he said: "Russian #Gazprom closes 2024 with a staggering $12.89B net loss - twice its 2023 record of $6.1B, cementing its place as Russia’s most unprofitable company. The downturn stems from plummeting shares of Gazprom Neft, its oil subsidiary."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2030179/russian-economy-meltdown-gazprom-losses-jobs
Rising supply and potentially weaker-than-expected demand are set to keep oil prices in check this year, with the price likely to average in the low $70s, analysts and investment banks say.
With the U.S. new administration, experts expect the average price to be lower compared to last year amid concerns about demand as economic uncertainty spiked with the start of the trade and tariff wars.
On the supply side, OPEC+ early this month confirmed it would begin adding barrels to the market as early as next month. Of course, OPEC+ left the door open to any changes to its supply in any direction, saying in the press release that it remains “adaptable to evolving conditions,” and “Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.”
Wall Street Banks See Oil in the Low $70s
President Donald Trump’s trade policies threw market analysts a curveball, increasing the uncertainty about this year’s demand prospects if economies slow as a result of the tariffs.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for Brent Crude prices, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and additional OPEC+ supply.
“While the $10 a barrel selloff since mid-January is larger than the change in our base case fundamentals, we reduce by $5 our December 2025 forecast for Brent to $71,” the investment bank’s research team said in a note, adding that “The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases.”
The tariff wars and high spare capacity at OPEC+ producers are skewing the oil price risk to the downside in the medium term, Goldman Sachs has also said.
HSBC analysts also see risks in oil skewed to the downside amid expectations of a surplus this year and next. Stronger supply growth compared to more sluggish demand growth would leave the oil market in a 200,000-bpd surplus this year, the bank said in a note. In the previous market view, HSBC expected a relatively balanced oil market in 2025.
Analysts at Barclays see Brent Crude prices at $74 per barrel this year, down by $9 from the previous forecast, as they slashed their global demand growth estimate in mounting economic uncertainties.
“We turn neutral on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 demand outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to soft high-frequency indicators and elevated economic uncertainty,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note last week carried by Reuters.
The UK-based bank now sees this year’s demand growth at 900,000 bpd.
Barclays expects U.S. crude oil production to increase by the end of this year by just 200,000 bpd compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
Wood Mackenzie also expects oil prices to be lower this year compared to 2024.
Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, down by $7 per barrel from 2024, due to expectations that supply would likely outstrip demand, Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook showed. The $73 per barrel forecast for this year was revised down by $0.40 from the early February monthly report.
“We’re seeing a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While global demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC production is forecasted to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially outpacing demand growth,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie.
Key Oil Market Drivers
OPEC+ supply and the U.S. trade policies (and their effect on economies) will be the two key driving factors for oil prices this year, WoodMac says, although there are also many geopolitical issues at play, including talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine and President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran.
WoodMac expects global economic growth at 2.8% for 2025, but this could be adjusted downward by around 0.5 percentage points depending on potential trade war scenarios.
Weaker economic growth could reduce oil demand growth by about 400,000 bpd from WoodMac’s current forecast of a 1.1 million bpd increase for 2025.
In case oil demand weakens, the annual average for Brent crude could be $3 to $5 per barrel lower than the $73 per barrel forecast, the energy consultancy says.
All these projections will depend on OPEC+ actions in terms of supply, U.S. trade and tariff policies, and global economic conditions, WoodMac noted.
For now, OPEC continues to see robust oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026. The cartel left its demand outlook unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) last week. OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million bpd in each of 2025 and 2026.
The International Energy Agency’s monthly report, however, was bearish, as it has been typical of the IEA on oil demand for several years. The Paris-based agency expects growth to be just over 1 million bpd this year, with total global oil reaching 103.9 million bpd.
While this would be an acceleration from the estimated 830,000 bpd growth in 2024, the IEA predicts in its current balances that global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600,000 bpd this year.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/70-Oil-Analysts-Cut-Forecasts-as-Supply-Surges.html
Jade Gao | Afp | Getty Images
Gold prices retreated on Friday as the dollar firmed and investors booked profits after bullion hit three successive all-time peaks this week, buoyed by safe-haven demand amid trade war concerns and hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year.
Spot gold was down 0.4% to $3,033.36 an ounce. U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $3,039.60.
Bullion was on track for a third straight weekly gain, having added 1.6% so far this week. It hit an all-time high of $3,057.21 per ounce on Thursday.
The U.S. dollar was up 0.2% on Friday making greenback priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.
“Spot gold is seeing a healthy pullback after surging to fresh record highs above $3k, with the dollar’s recent resilience also prompting gold to ease lower,” said Han Tan, Exinity Group’s chief market analyst. “Gold’s uptrend is set to remain intact as long as risk-on sentiment fails to find its grip, especially as the April 2 deadline draws near for the next wave of U.S. tariffs.”
U.S. President Donald Trump still intends for new reciprocal tariff rates to take effect on that date.
A whirlwind of factors, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, have propelled gold to 16 record highs, with four above the crucial $3,000 mark.
“ETP (Exchange Traded Products) demand could continue to lead gold prices higher, even in the face of weakening physical demand across India and China,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper in a note dated Thursday.
Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven investment during times of inflation or economic volatility, tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment.
The Fed held its benchmark rate steady as expected on Wednesday. Policymakers see the central bank delivering two quarter-percentage-point cuts by year-end.
Spot silver slid 1.5% to $33.04 an ounce, platinum lost 0.4% to $981.05, and palladium shed 0.4% to $948.43. All three were poised for weekly losses.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/21/gold-retreats-on-firm-us-dollar-on-track-for-third-weekly-gain.html
Aurion maintains the right to continue exploration for gold and silver in the project area. Credit: BJP7images/Shutterstock.
Canadian miner Aurion Resources has entered into a definitive agreement with KoBold Exploration Finland, a subsidiary of KoBold Metals, for the exploration of critical minerals in Finland.
Under the deal, Aurion grants KoBold the right to earn a 75% interest in commodities, excluding gold or silver, found in the project area, which comprises 35km² of Aurion’s fully owned 160km² Risti property in Finland.
KoBold will spend $12m (€11.07m) on exploration by the fifth anniversary of the agreement’s signing as part of the deal.
The company is also required to commit a minimum exploration expenditure of $1m within the first 18 months.
Following the fulfilment of the earn-in requirements, a joint venture (JV) will be formed between KoBold and Aurion, with ownership stakes of 75% and 25%, respectively.
Additionally, if any party’s ownership in the JV falls below 10%, it will convert to a 2% net smelter returns royalty.
Aurion CEO Matti Talikka said: “Aurion is pleased to welcome KoBold Metals as a partner with an aim to unlock value from the base metal and critical mineral potential of the eastern part of the Risti property.
“The agreement with a split commodity structure enables Aurion to retain full exploration and ownership rights over significant gold and silver discoveries while leveraging KoBold’s expertise in exploration for metals and minerals important for the green energy transition.
“The base metal prospectivity of the region is well evidenced by the Kevitsa Ni-Cu-PGE [nickel-copper-Platinum Group Element] Mine (Boliden) and the Sakatti Ni-Cu-PGE discovery (Anglo American) located 12km from the Risti property.”
Aurion will retain the complete rights to areas within the project area where gold or silver are predominantly found and continue exploration for gold and silver during both the earn-in and JV phases, as long as it holds an ownership interest.
KoBold Metals chief strategy officer Daniel Enderton said: “We welcome the opportunity to work with Aurion to explore for critical metals on part of their Risti property. We look forward to combining these experiences and operating capabilities with KoBold’s team and technologies to search for a new discovery on this property. We are looking forward to getting the exploration teams on the ground in the coming months.”
In February 2024, KoBold Metals, supported by billionaires like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, signed a deal with Midnight Sun Mining to explore Zambia’s Dumbwa target at the Solwezi copper project.
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/aurion-resource-kobold-risti-property/
The technology supports the shift to more eco-friendly and socially acceptable mining. Credit: T. Schneider/Shutterstock.
Chilean state-owned copper miner Codelco is exploring the adoption of a novel technology developed by American-Canadian billionaire Robert Friedland’s I-Pulse that utilises electricity to fracture rocks, reported Bloomberg.
Chilean miners are facing the challenge of declining ore quality, which necessitates processing more rock to maintain metal production levels.
During an interview, Codelco’s executive chairman, Maximo Pacheco, expressed his company’s interest in collaborating with I-Pulse.
Both the companies “have a lot of interest in working together”, he said, noting the “very good relations” formed with I-Pulse after visiting their laboratories in Toulouse, France.
Pacheco emphasised the importance of innovation in meeting the surging demand for critical minerals such as copper and lithium.
“I-Pulse and Robert Friedland have a lot of experience and are doing very interesting things. We are following them very closely,” he added.
I-Pulse, a private US company, specialises in pulsed power technology with applications across various industries including mining.
The company’s I-ROX venture specifically targets the mining sector, aiming to reduce the environmental impact of rock shattering.
The technology has already attracted investments from major players such as BHP Group and a European fund connected to Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures.
Robert Friedland has confirmed ongoing discussions with Codelco. “We are in discussions with Codelco and many others about the use of I-Pulse technology,” he stated during a telephone interview.
Friedland’s company has also garnered investments from other mining companies including Rio Tinto Group, Newmont and Teck Resources.
In January 2025, Chile’s national development agency, Corfo, launched an initiative to extract cobalt and rare earths from mining waste.
(March 20): Copper marched past its key threshold of US$10,000 (RM44,280) a ton after weeks of global trade dislocation triggered by President Donald Trump’s push for tariffs on the crucial industrial metal.
Trump last month ordered the US Commerce Department to investigate imports of copper as a likely precursor to imposing duties. Since then, prices have spiked and traders have scrambled to send metal to America ahead of any tariffs, in turn reducing supply in the rest of the world.
Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.5% to US$10,040 a ton on Thursday — the highest level since October — while prices on New York’s Comex neared a record high.
“This is a round of cross-regional repricing triggered by potential US tariffs,” said Wei Lai, deputy trading head at Zijin Mining Investment Shanghai Co. “While cargoes are lured to the US, leaving other places in shortfall. Buying sentiment is very strong.”
Copper’s surge is just one part of the turmoil unleased by Trump’s bid to reshape global trade and bolster defences for US domestic producers. He’s slapped 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminum, hit Canada, Mexico and China with duties, and has promised sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs starting next month.
The investigation into copper imports is unlikely to deliver its recommendations until later this year, but Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Citigroup Inc are among those anticipating the US will impose 25% import levies on copper by the end of 2025.
Comex copper prices are now up 27% since the start of the year, while the LME price is up about 14%. The big gap has created a huge incentive for traders and producers to keep moving supplies to the US, and more than 100,000 tons may be on its way. Major commodities players including Trafigura Group and Glencore plc are among those diverting metal from Asia, according to people familiar with the trades.
Copper traded at US$9,999 a ton on the LME by 9.50am Shanghai time.
LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - London copper prices hit a five-month high on Thursday breaking above a major psychological mark of $10,000 per metric ton before retreating under pressure from a stronger dollar.
Benchmark three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.1% to $9,975 a ton by 1151 GMT after hitting $10,046.50, its highest since October 3.
Supporting the London price is the continuing growth in the most active May copper futures on the U.S. Comex exchange , which were last up 0.5% at $5.125 a pound after hitting a ten-month high of $5.1485.
The premium of the Comex most active contract hit a record high of $1,342 per ton on Wednesday and was last at $1,319 as the United States continues a probe into potential new tariffs on copper. U.S. President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium products took effect last week.
With a wide premium between the Comex and LME copper and the tariff threat itself, lots of copper is heading to the United States now, a source at a U.S. warehouse operator said.
The anticipated surge in imports into the U.S. is tightening supplies in other regions, analysts at ING said in a note.
Comex copper stocks are down 7.5% since mid-February to 93,154 tons, but outflows from the LME copper stocks continue, daily LME data showed. The copper stocks in the LME-registered warehouses are at 223,275 metric tons, their lowest since mid-July.
LME aluminium rose 0.5% to $2,682.50 a ton and zinc gained 0.1% to $2,926.50 after daily LME data showed massive fresh cancellations, bringing the cancelled stocks to 60% of the total for both metals. <0#MALSTX-LOC> <0#MZNSTX-LOC>
The cancellations indicate only the intention to remove the product from the LME system, and the metal can be put back on warrant.
Product shipments grow for the second year in a row after a significant drop in 2022
In 2024, steel companies in the European Union (EU) increased exports of long products to third countries by 3.6% compared to 2023, to 6.36 million tons. Shipments have been growing for the second year in a row after falling by 17.4% y/y in 2022. This is according to GMK Center’s calculations based on Eurostat data.
The largest export volumes for the year were angles, shapes and special sections made of unalloyed steel (HS-7216) – 2.14 million tons, up 0.7% y/y. Another 1.29 million tons (+8.9% y/y) of exports were made up of other rods and bars of carbon steel, not further processed, twisted (HS – 7214), and 1.17 million tons (+3.7% y/y) of hot-rolled rods and bars of carbon steel, in coils (HS – 7213).
More than 60% of exports went to the US, Turkey, the UK, Switzerland, China, and Norway.
The largest volumes were supplied to the UK – 1.43 million tons (+11.6% y/y). Of these, 608.79 thousand tons (+33.5% y/y) were angles, shapes and special sections.
Another 890.5 thousand tons were shipped to the United States (+19.1% y/y), 752.2 thousand tons (+1.9% y/y) – to Switzerland, and 461 thousand tons (-12.3% y/y) – to Turkey. The company exported 176.31 thousand tons (-2.3% y/y) to Norway, 161.3 thousand tons (-13.8% y/y) – to China, 39.15 thousand tons (-27.8% y/y) – to Ukraine, and 36.7 thousand tons (-2.2% y/y) – to Egypt.
The key exporters of long products among the EU countries are:
Germany – 1.5 million tons;
Spain – 1.41 million tons;
Italy – 1.05 million tons;
Portugal – 485.56 thousand tons.
Thus, the European long products market is showing a gradual recovery, which indicates that production has stabilized and demand in key foreign markets, including the UK, the US and Switzerland, remains strong.
However, a number of factors continue to weigh on the export sector. First, high energy prices and production costs in the EU reduce the competitiveness of European steelmakers compared to producers from Turkey or China. Secondly, geopolitical instability, including trade restrictions, affects supply chains.
Despite these challenges, the outlook for 2025 remains moderately positive. Exports are expected to continue to grow due to the recovery in economic activity in the US and the UK, as well as a potential improvement in the EU’s terms of trade. At the same time, possible fluctuations in commodity markets and regulatory changes may create additional risks for exporters.
https://gmk.center/en/infographic/eu-exported-6-4-million-tons-of-long-products-in-2024/
Seoul, March 20: The South Korean government has launched a probe into suspected dumping of hot-rolled carbon steel and optical fibre products from China and Japan, the industry ministry said on Thursday.
The Korea Trade Commission (KTC) commenced the probe into alleged dumping of hot-rolled products of carbon steel and alloy steel by six Japanese companies, including JFE Shoji Corp., and five Chinese companies that include Benxi Iron and Steel Group.
The decision follows a complaint from Hyundai Steel Co., a major South Korean steel company, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, reports Yonhap news agency.
The KTC also opened a separate investigation into allegations that three Chinese companies dumped single mode optical fibre products at lower prices than their normal value following a complaint filed by LS Cable & System Ltd., South Korea's biggest cable company.
Following three months of preliminary investigation, the KTC plans to conduct a main investigation into the cases for another three to five months before delivering its decisions.
The KTC also held a public hearing on the ongoing investigation into suspected dumping of Chinese and Taiwanese petroleum resin products as part of efforts to guarantee the defence rights of the related parties, according to the ministry.
The KTC made a preliminary decision in December to impose a maximum of 18.52 percent of antidumping tariffs on those products.
Meanwhile, POSCO Holdings, the holding company of South Korea's leading steelmaker POSCO, said on Thursday it will launch a new department to deal with global trade issues, a move that apparently comes in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump's ever-changing tariff policies.
POSCO Holdings will kick off the new department Friday to handle trade issues ranging from steel and rechargeable battery materials to overseas energy resources development on behalf of its affiliates, the company said in a press release.
"There has been such a team that handles global trade affairs under POSCO, but the new department is for all affiliates under the holding company," a company spokesperson said.
“We estimate that coal shipments to China will show a 15% fall y/y during the first quarter of 2025, reaching a three-year-low. Seaborne cargoes have slowed due to weaker domestic demand and higher competition from domestic supplies and overland imports. Thermal coal cargoes have been particularly affected, though coking coal shipments have also decreased,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
During the first two months of 2025, thermal coal demand weakened due to a 6% y/y decrease in electricity generation from coal. Total electricity generation fell 1% y/y amid an unseasonably warm winter, and generation from renewable sources continued to rise. Coking coal demand dropped due to a 1% fall in steel production.
During the same period, domestic mining in China continued to ramp up, rising 8% y/y. A year prior, safety issues in Chinese mines led to a slowdown in mined volumes. However, this seems to no longer be an issue. Imports via rail have also continued to grow, especially from Mongolia, negatively impacting demand for seaborne cargoes.
“Tonne mile demand is estimated to have performed even worse than volumes, falling 25% y/y during the first quarter of 2025. Average sailing distances have shortened due to weaker volumes from Colombia and shorter distances for Russian cargoes,” says Gouveia.
Most coal cargoes into China come from nearby countries such as Indonesia, Australia and Russia. So far this year, these countries have accounted for 57%, 16% and 14% of volumes respectively. While the US, Canada and Colombia have only contributed 6% of volumes, they still accounted for 17% of tonne mile demand.
Of the larger exporters, Indonesia has fared the best with volumes only falling 11% y/y. North American shipments also performed well, with Canadian cargoes surging 42% y/y and US cargoes only falling 10% y/y. This is despite an increase in Chinese import tariffs effective since 4 February.
The panamax segment has been the most popular for transporting coal to China, accounting for 57% of year-to-date shipments. Despite weaker cargo, volumes on panamaxes still increased 1% y/y, crowding out the other segments, partly due to comparatively weaker freight rates.
“Looking ahead, the outlook seems timid for coal shipments to China. Import demand could remain low as the country expands electricity generation from renewables, domestic mining and rail links with Mongolia and Russia. Nonetheless, spikes in demand could still occur due to increased electricity use during extreme temperatures or during periods of weaker production from renewables,” says Gouveia.
https://www.marinelink.com/news/weak-demand-drives-china-coal-imports-523718
