Mark Latham Commodity Equity Intelligence Service

Friday 16 August 2024
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Rio Tinto agrees state support for one of Australia’s largest smelters as Queensland ramps up renewables

OPERATION of the Boyne aluminium smelter in Queensland could be protected until at least 2040 under a support package negotiated between operator Rio Tinto and the state government.

The smelting process involves electrolysis so requires huge amounts of electricity. The smelter will be able to access the support package from 2029 as it shifts to using renewables as a source of power.

Details of how the Queensland government is funding the support package or how much it is worth have not been disclosed. The Australian is reporting that taxpayers could fund the package by subsidising the operation’s renewable energy costs.

The Boyne smelter is Australia’s second largest aluminium smelter. The facility is operated by Boyne Smelters, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and minority partners YKK Aluminium, UACJ Australia, and Southern Cross Aluminium. The smelter has an annual production capacity of 500,000 t and directly employs 1,000 people. It uses the Hall-Héroult process which involves dissolving alumina in a bath of molten cryolite and then passing electricity through it to split the alumina into aluminium and oxygen at around 950°C.

Operations on site include the manufacturing of carbon anodes, aluminium production, and casting of molten metal into aluminium products for export.

Under the terms of the deal, Rio Tinto will be required to operate the smelter at full capacity until the end of 2040, commit to ongoing maintenance capital expenditure and meet employment requirements. To help balance the power grid as more intermittent renewable supplies are brought online, Rio Tinto has agreed to develop the capabilities to dial down the smelter’s power consumption during times of peak demand. Queensland currently generates around 27% of its energy supply from renewable sources and has targets to lift this to 50% by 2030, 70% by 2032 and 80% by 2035.

Rio Tinto has also agreed to invest in more renewables and add a fifth ship to its fleet of vessels that transport bauxite – the aluminium feedstock for the smelter – from its Gove and Weipa mines.

Queensland premier Steven Miles said: “We know that Central Queensland is key to the state’s economy, which is why we are acting to protect anchor manufacturers like Boyne Smelters because they support jobs and supply chains well beyond their own operations.”

Rio Tinto says there are several further steps required before the support agreement is finalised including approval by joint venture partners and completion of energy contracts.

Kellie Parker, CEO of Rio Tinto Australia, said: “While this is a critical part of the puzzle, we have more to do. We will continue to engage with the Federal Government on supportive industry policy to help sustain Australia’s green aluminium sector for the future."


https://www.thechemicalengineer.com/news/rio-tinto-agrees-state-support-for-one-of-australia-s-largest-smelters-as-queensland-ramps-up-renewables/

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Oil and Gas

Swan Energy to sell FSRU to Turkey’s Botas for USD 399 million

New Delhi, Aug 15 (PTI) Billionaire Nikhil Merchant-led Swan Energy Ltd has said it plans to sell its stake in a floating LNG receipt terminal to Turkey’s state-run Botas for USD 399 million.

The company plans to sell assets of subsidiary Triumph Offshore Pvt Ltd to Botas Trading IC, according to a regulatory filing.

“The definitive documents shall be signed in due course,” it said, adding the deal is likely to be completed in six months.

The sale consideration of USD 399 million is to be received in multiple tranches over an unspecified period.

Triumph Offshore Private Limited (TOPL) owns a 5 million tonnes a year floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) called Vasant-1. Swan Energy holds 51 per cent in TOPL while fertiliser maker IFFCO the remaining 49 per cent.

The filing did not say if IFFCO is also offloading its stake.

Swan is building a liquefied natural gas (LNG) import facility at Jafrabad in Gujarat. In the initial phase, gas, which is used to make fertilizers, generate electricity and turned into CNG and cooking gas, was to be imported in its liquid form after being super-cooled (called LNG) at the floating terminal. The liquid gas was to be reconverted into its gaseous stage at the FSRU before being transported through a under-sea pipeline to onland for further sale to users.

However, the terminal commissioning was delayed due to pandemic and cyclone in 2022, and so Swan leased out the FSRU to Botas for an initial period of 304 days.

TOPL took delivery of FSRU ‘Vasant-1’ on September 29, 2020 from Hyundai Heavy Industries Shipyard.

“Post-delivery of FSRU, it was put on charter hire with charterer for its interim utilisation as LNG carrier till Jafrabad LNG port is ready, which has yielded decent revenue generation and saving of parking charges,” according to the company’s annual report.

TOPL entered into a heads of agreement term sheet on December 31, 2022 with Botas Trading IC for chartering of the FSRU on Bareboat basis, for a period of at least 304 days, starting from January 2, 2023.

The Jafrabad port and terminal is owned by another Swan subsidiary Swan LNG Pvt Ltd. Swan Energy is the lead promoter with 63 per cent equity stake. The government of Gujarat has 26 per cent stake (15 per cent by GMB and 11 per cent by GSPL), and 11 per cent stake is held by the Indian subsidiary of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), Japan, which is also the technical partner of the project.

The 10 million tonnes a year facility terminal has signed a capacity booking agreement with state-owned oil firms.

According to Swan, the port is to be operated on a tolling model. Gujarat State Petroleum Corp (GSPC) has booked 1.5 million tonnes a year of the terminal capacity while Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) and Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) one million tonnes each for 20 years.


https://www.takeonedigitalnetwork.com/swan-energy-to-sell-fsru-to-turkeys-botas-for-usd-399-million/

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Exxaro CEO says South Africa's rail snarl-ups have bottomed out.

By Paul Burkhardt.

South Africa's abysmal rail performance that's crimped the ability of miners to export output is set to improve, according to coal producer Exxaro Resources.

State-owned rail and freight operator Transnet shipped the lowest volumes in three decades on the main coal line that runs from mines to the Richards Bay Coal Terminal on the nation's northeastern coast last year. Improvements could take years before a full recovery in performance.

President Cyril Ramaphosa and Business for South Africa said Wednesday that the state company — the source of bottlenecks for exporters and importers due to its operational inefficiencies and equipment breakdowns — requires substantial interventions to meet the needs of its customers.

"This is really the bottom" and volumes to the export facility won't likely drop below 40 million tons for the year, Exxaro chief executive officer Nombasa Tsengwa said in an interview. "The new team that came in is very clear on what the operational issues are and they're focusing on those, "even though measures being put in place won't start to take effect for another year, she said.

In February, South Africa appointed Michelle Phillips as Transnet's new CEO in a bid to improve the company's performance.

Transnet's "conservative" export-coal forecast for the financial year is 54 million tons, it said in a response to questions earlier this week. Fixing the main line will take as long as five years and require R12.2 billion just to upgrade signals and other infrastructure, according to an internal report.

Exxaro raised export sales by almost a third in the first half of the financial year by trucking coal, an expensive option especially after a decline in prices for the dirtiest fossil fuel, according to its interim results on Thursday.

"We are not at the end of the journey yet in terms of optimising those routes to the other ports, said Sakkie Swanepoel, Exxaro's group manager for marketing and logistics. "It makes sense for us to continue."

Coal prices have plunged almost 70% since peaking in September 2022. Exxaro's net income declined 41% to R3.66 billion in the six months through June from a year earlier, and it cut the interim dividend by 30%.

The coal company also runs a clean-energy business and has plans to diversify its mining assets. After losing a bid to buy a copper mine in Botswana last year, the strategy to acquire a critical-minerals operation remains intact.

"We are quite well advanced on a number of opportunities through due diligence and engagement with principals," said Exxaro chief growth officer Richard Lilleike, declining to give more detail.


https://fullview.co.za/top-stories/item/39317-exxaro-ceo-says-south-africa-s-rail-snarl-ups-have-bottomed-out

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Colorado regulators boot oil and gas company out of the state

OIL & GAS: Colorado regulators waive an oil and gas company’s $1.7 million fine for dozens of violations while revoking its right to operate in the state and ordering it to clean up its facilities. (Colorado Sun)

Facing millions of dollars in fines, dozens of violations, legions of complaints from homeowners as well as local governments, oil and gas operator Prospect Energy on Wednesday had its right to do business in Colorado canceled.

The Energy and Carbon Management Commission endorsed a settlement agreement between the commission staff and the Highlands Ranch-based company. Prospect Energy also has an agreement with Larimer County and Fort Collins to clean up sites.

As part of the agreement, $1.7 million in ECMC fines will be waived, with what funds the company has going toward securing and cleaning up its sites. Prospect Energy was fined for illegal flaring, spills and failing to do well-integrity tests.

Prospect Energy’s 59 wells will end up in the ECMC Orphan Well program and will eventually be plugged and abandoned by the state.

Under the agreement, Prospect Energy’s owner, Ward Giltner, must obtain commission approval before owning or operating any future oil and gas properties in Colorado. Giltner did not reply to email and telephone requests for comments.

The company, however, still faces $337,000 in fines from the state Air Pollution Control Division for air emission violations. In 2022, the division ordered one of Prospect Energy’s sites closed until dangerous emissions could be curbed.

“This is an exceptional and rare course of action,” APCD director Michael Ogletree said at the time. “This is a unique situation that calls for extraordinary measures to ensure we are protecting public welfare.”


https://energynews.us/newsletter/colorado-regulators-boot-oil-and-gas-company-out-of-the-state/

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WSJ: Ukraine behind Nord Stream pipeline bombings despite Zelensky blocking plan — Novaya Gazeta Europe

A group of senior Ukrainian officials were responsible for planning the destruction of the Nord Stream gas pipelines in September 2022, The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.

The operation, which involved a small rented yacht and a crew of six, cost around $300,000 (€272,460), the WSJ said, adding that a team of military and civilian divers had used powerful yet relatively simple explosive devices to damage the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipelines in the Baltic Sea.

WSJ sources indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially approved the plan to attack the pipelines, but later ordered a halt to the operation following a request from the CIA. General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, then the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, decided to proceed with the mission anyway, the publication said.

The plan was reportedly conceived during a drunken gathering one night in May 2022, in which senior Ukrainian military officers and businessmen proposed sabotaging the pipelines to prevent Russia supplying energy to Europe as retaliation for the invasion of Ukraine.


https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/08/15/wsj-ukraine-behind-nord-stream-pipeline-bombings-despite-zelensky-blocking-plan-en-news

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Electricity price hike is likely

The prospects for electricity retail prices in September look bleak, given recent developments in the wholesale and futures markets.

High temperatures not only affect demand but also have effects on production, for example in electricity from nuclear reactors in France.

In the first 14 days of August, the average wholesale price of electricity in Greece has been at €122.48 per megawatt-hour, the second highest in Europe behind Italy (€127.92/MWh). Demand was met by renewable energy sources (41.7%), natural gas (38.3%), hydroelectric power (5.4%), lignite – also known as brown coal – (4.1%) and electricity imports (5.9%).

September natural gas futures at the Amsterdam-based Title Transfer Facility (TTF) have hovered over the past few days around €40/MWh and analysts predict that the price could rise as high as €50 in the case Russian gas flow through Ukraine is temporarily disrupted. This appears increasingly likely after the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region, where the Sudzha gas metering point is located.

Europe has mostly weaned itself off Russian gas imports since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, but some countries, such as Austria, Hungary, Italy and Slovakia, still depend to a large extent on them. Gazprom provided, through the Sudzha point, about 15 billion cubic meters of gas, which accounted for 4.5% of Europe’s total consumption.

Competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) with Asia further constrains the European market, reducing gas reserves for the winter.

The heatwave afflicting Western Europe has not only led to a demand spike but has also reduced French nuclear power production. French utility EDF has cut about 2.4 gigawatts of capacity from three nuclear reactors in southern France and will have more cuts by next week. According to energy market news wire Montel, EDF has severely restricted capacity at three nuclear power units and plans to shut down a fourth completely for 24 hours.

At the Golfech power plant, in the southern department of Tarn-et-Garonne, capacity in one unit had been reduced by almost 80% by Wednesday, while the second reactor will be out of commission until August 26 to save on fuel, and for safety reasons. Temperatures in southwest France have exceeded 40 degrees Celsius.


https://www.ekathimerini.com/economy/energy/1246217/electricity-price-hike-is-likely/

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Prices steady as plentiful storage offsets supply risks

Dutch and British gas wholesale prices were largely flat but still near eight-month highs as well-filled storages balanced concerns over potential supply disruptions ahead of the winter season.

The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub (TRNLTTFMc1) inched down by 0.07 euro to 38.93 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or 12.56 $/mmbtu, by 0823 GMT, LSEG data showed.

The October contract (TRNLTTFMc2) was 0.05 euro lower at 39.85 euros/MWh.

Both contracts remain at levels not seen since December last year.

"The price of the active monthly contract in the TTF market is at a relatively high level, especially for this time of year," Hans van Cleef at PZ Energy Research & Strategy said in a note.

The high prices were mainly due to risk premiums due to geopolitical turmoil, such as Ukraine's advance into Russian territory which sparked concerns over disruptions to Russian gas flows.

However, gas keeps flowing via the Sudzha entry point continue despite fighting in the area. Russia's Gazprom said it would send 42.4 mcm/day of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Thursday, the same volume as on Wednesday.

"The shift of front lines in Ukraine is not a threat to Europe's energy security. Storage is full, demand depressed, and the global market offers sufficient natural gas shipments," Norbert Ruecker, head of economics and next generation research at Julius Baer, said in a note.

Likewise, geopolitics in the Middle East would need to take a serious turn for the worse to affect the region's natural gas exports, he added.

European gas storages were last seen 88.2% full, close to their 90% target for Nov. 1, Gas Infrastructure Europe data showed.

Ruecker said he maintained a bearish market view, but noted that hedge fund positioning in the futures market has reached extremely bullish levels and warranted a correction.

According to analysts at ING, speculators have boosted their positioning in the Dutch gas market given the supply risks.

Investment funds have increased their net long positions by a little more than 42 terawatt hours (TWh) to 234 TWh - the highest level since July 2021, they said.

Further in, prices dipped as well, with the British day-ahead contract (TRGBNBPD1) down 0.5 pence at 78.50 pence per therm.

In the European carbon market, the benchmark contract (CFI2Zc1) edged eased by 0.78 euro to 71.09 euros a metric ton.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2024:newsml_L8N3K20JS:0-prices-steady-as-plentiful-storage-offsets-supply-risks/

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China's July oil refinery output sinks to the lowest since Oct 2022

SINGAPORE, Aug 15 (Reuters) -

China's oil refinery output in July fell 6.1% from a year earlier, official data showed on Thursday, down for a fourth month as thin processing margins and tepid fuel demand discouraged production.

Refiners processed 59.06 million metric tons of crude oil in July, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed, equivalent to 13.91 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest since October 2022.

The July rate fell from 14.19 million bpd in June and 14.87 million bpd in July 2023.

Output for the first seven months of the year was 419.15 million tons, or 14.37 million bpd, down 1.2% from the corresponding period last year, the data showed. This is the second consecutive month the data has showed the year-to-date volumes have been down from the year-ago period since the end of 2022, according to Reuters' records.

Gasoline demand remained subdued despite a pickup in travel during the summer school holidays that span July and August as consumers chose to travel abroad or opted for high-speed rail for long-distance trips instead of driving.

Chinese consultancy JLC estimated July's apparent consumption of the motor fuel rose 3.3% versus June, a growth rate significantly slower than a year earlier.

A greater penetration of electric vehicles in the world's largest auto market also continued to reduce gasoline use.

Half of all vehicles sold in China in July were either new pure electric vehicles (EV) or plug-in hybrids.

Planned overhauls at PetroChina's WEPEC and Ningxia refineries and Sinopec's Qilu and Maoming plants capped runs at state majors, while thin refining margins weighed on independent refiners' processing rates.

Consultancy Oilchem estimated independent refineries, mostly situated in the eastern refining hub of Shandong province, operated at 56.11% of capacity last month, down 7.3 percentage points on the year.

(1 metric ton=7.3 barrels crude oil)

(Reporting by Chen Aizhu; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Christian Schmollinger)


https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/PETROCHINA-COMPANY-LIMITE-1412714/news/China-s-July-oil-refinery-output-sinks-to-the-lowest-since-Oct-2022-47655455/

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Halt in Iran’s Oil Production Growth Since Early Spring, Per OPEC, IEA

New statistics from the International Energy Agency and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) show that Iran’s oil production experienced significant growth last year, but this growth has stalled since the beginning of this spring.

The International Energy Agency estimated Iran’s daily oil production in July at around 3.35 million barrels, while OPEC’s assessment placed it at about 3.27 million barrels.

Before U.S. sanctions, Iran’s daily crude oil production was 3.8 million barrels, but this figure dropped to less than 2 million barrels towards the end of Donald Trump’s administration. However, production started to rise again after Joe Biden took office.

Data from Vortexa, a tanker tracking company, indicates that Iran’s daily exports of oil and gas condensates have remained steady at around 1.7 million barrels over the past few months.

Before the U.S. sanctions, Iran’s regime exported about 2.5 million barrels of crude oil and gas condensates (a type of ultra-light crude oil produced from gas fields) daily, but this figure dropped to 330,000 barrels towards the end of Trump’s presidency.

China is currently the buyer of over 95% of Iran’s oil exports, with the remaining oil being sent to Syria.

The International Energy Agency states that global oil demand growth in the second quarter of this year has slowed to nearly the same level as in the spring. It is expected that global oil consumption will increase by only 1 million barrels per day this year, with a similar increase anticipated for next year.

This is in contrast to last year when global oil consumption increased by 2.5 million barrels per day.

The slowdown in global oil demand growth is primarily due to the Chinese market, where electric vehicle purchases have surged. In the first half of this year, more than half of the cars sold in China were electric.

Oil consumption in Europe is expected to decline this year, and the Americas will see only a slight increase in oil consumption.


https://iranfocus.com/economy/51833-halt-in-irans-oil-production-growth-since-early-spring-per-opec-iea/

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Geopolitical Risk Props Up Oil Prices After a Two-Day Dip

Crude oil prices snapped a two-day losing streak on Wednesday that extended into today’s session in Asian midmorning trade supported by growing worry about the state of international affairs in the Middle East.

After dipping below $80 per barrel earlier in the week, Brent crude had earlier today recovered to over $80, with West Texas Intermediate at over $77 per barrel. At the time of writing, the international benchmark was hovering around $80 per barrel.

Although shaky, the rise is worth noting because it comes amid an abundance of bearish factors. The EIA yesterday surprised with a crude oil inventory build for the week to August 9, although it also reported declines in fuel inventories suggesting healthy demand.

China reported lower refinery output for July, lower apparent oil demand, and lower imports of crude—all indicators reinforcing the perception that the world’s largest oil importer is not as thirsty for the commodity as it used to be.

“The data doesn’t look great,” Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING said as quoted by Bloomberg. “It only reinforces the demand concerns that have been lingering in the market for a while, and with China expected to make up almost 60% of global demand growth this year, these worries are unlikely to disappear anytime soon.”

At the same time, however, prices received support from renewed hopes of a rate cut in the U.S. down the road before the end of the year. The hopes came after the release of consumer inflation data, which showed prices inched up modestly in July.

The biggest bullish factor for oil, though, remains Middle Eastern geopolitics. Worry about a broader war in the region grew last week after Iran vowed retaliation against Israel for the killing of the leader of Hamas in Tehran but since then Iran has been biding its time, keeping everyone on edge.

“Geopolitical risk continues to hang over the oil market. It is still unclear how and if Iran will retaliate against Israel following the assassination of the political leader of Hamas on Iranian soil. This uncertainty has led to increased options trading activity with market participants wanting to protect themselves from significant upside,” ING’s Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a note earlier today.


https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Geopolitical-Risk-Props-Up-Oil-Prices-After-a-Two-Day-Dip.html

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US/non-Opec+ oil production growth slowing

Published: Thu 15 Aug 2024, 5:53 PM

A key driver of global oil markets — strong production growth outside of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (Opec+) led by the United States that matches or exceeds world demand growth — appears to be slowing, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Commodity Insights.

The latest S&P Global Commodity Insights Global Crude Oil Markets Short-Term Outlook expects non-Opec+ crude oil production growth (including condensate) to be 390,000 barrels per day (bpd) lower (829,000 bpd of growth) in the second half of 2024 and 570,000 bpd lower (1,117,000 bpd of growth) in 2025 than the previous month’s forecast.

Lower expectations for US crude production growth are the main reason for the downward revision to the non-Opec+ crude oil production outlook, the report shows. “S&P Global Commodity Insights sees US crude growth for the second half of 2024 coming in at 182,000 bpd, which is 174,000 bpd less than previously expected. US crude oil production growth for 2025 is now expected to be 429,000 bpd, a downward revision of 311,000 bpd,” the research body said in a note. “The reason for the cut in our US supply growth expectation is simple — there has been less upstream activity so far this year than previously anticipated. That is a reflection of expectations for decelerating demand growth and lower prices. The United States is still on track to produce more oil in 2025 than any other time in history. However, the degree by which it surpasses the previous record has reduced substantially,” said Jim Burkhard, vice president and head of research for oil markets, energy and mobility, S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Weaker US supply growth does not necessarily mean higher prices, the analysis says. Opec+ recently reaffirmed its plans to increase production later this year. With more oil supply from Opec+ coming onstream, the global oil market is still on track to be oversupplied in 2025, according to S&P. “Opec+ can alter production policy at any time, so higher supply is not a foregone conclusion. However, S&P Global Commodity Insights does expect more output as a means to maintain unity within the group,” the report said.

Despite the cut to the US outlook, S&P Global Commodity Insights expects crude oil prices in 2025 to be lower, on average, than in 2024. The pace of supply growth is slowing, but that coincides with decelerating global demand. Factor in the prospect of additional OPEC+ barrels coming into the mix, and it all adds up to a potentially oversupplied crude market in 2025,” Jim Burkhard said.


https://www.khaleejtimes.com/business/energy/us-non-opec-oil-production-growth-slowing

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‘Global oil production will surpass demand’

International Energy Agency's Oil 2024 report predicts a sharp increase in global oil production and decrease in demand

The Oil 2024 report by International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that a growth in global oil production, led by the US and other producers in the Americas, is expected to outstrip demand between now and 2030.

Strong demand from fast-growing economies in Asia, as well as from the aviation and petrochemicals sectors, is set to drive oil use higher in the coming years.

But this increase in demand is expected to be offset by a rise in electric vehicles, fuel efficiency improvements in conventional vehicles, declining use of oil for electricity generation and economic shifts.

As a result, global oil demand, which averaged at 102 million barrels per day in 2023, will level off at 106 million barrels per day towards the end of the decade.

On the other hand, total supply capacity is expected to rise to nearly 114 million barrels a day by 2030 – 8 million barrels per day above global demand.

Spare oil capacity could have significant consequences for OPEC and non OPEC markets and economies.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol, said: 'As the pandemic rebound loses steam, clean energy transitions advance, and the structure of China’s economy shifts, growth in global oil demand is slowing down and set to reach its peak by 2030. This year, we expect demand to rise by around 1 million barrels per day.

'This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place.'

Despite a decrease in growth, demand is still expected to be 3.2 million barrels per day higher in 2030 than in 2023.

Major policy changes and faster technological advancements are necessary to speed up the energy transition, especially in emerging economies.


https://www.futurenetzero.com/2024/08/15/global-oil-production-will-surpass-demand/

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Exxon expected to submit Hammerhead development plan to Guyana regulators early next year

The field development plan for ExxonMobil’s Hammerhead project is expected in the first quarter of 2025, according to Guyana’s Minister of Natural Resources Vickram Bharrat.

“…then we will do our necessary due diligence with the view of issuing the license once everything is okay,” Mr. Bharrat told reporters during the Ministry’s half-year press conference on Wednesday.

Exxon tapped Hammerhead as its 7th Stabroek Block project in June as a standalone development.

The development is expected to target between 120,000 and 180,000 barrels per day (b/d). Unlike the previous developments, Hammerhead is expected to use a smaller floating, production storage and offloading vessel (FPSO), seen as the most efficient to develop the resource.

The proposed project will be located in the south-central portion of the Stabroek Block, 160 kilometers (km) from Georgetown.

Exxon plans to drill 14 to 30 production and injection wells. First oil is targeted in 2029. Production from Hammerhead is expected to last “at least 20 years.

The addition of Hammerhead could take total oil production capacity offshore Guyana to 1.5 million b/d.

Exxon has a 45% stake in the Stabroek Block while Hess holds 30% and CNOOC holds 25%.


https://oilnow.gy/featured/exxon-expected-to-submit-hammerhead-development-plan-to-regulators-in-q1-2025/

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Agriculture

Periodic Updates on the Grains, Livestock Futures Markets

Grains

Posted 10:34 -- December corn is down 1/2 cent per bushel, November soybeans are up 8 3/4 cents per bushel. September KC wheat is down 1 1/4 cents per bushel, September Chicago wheat is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel and September Minneapolis wheat is up 1/2 cent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 437.31 points at 40,445.70 and the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.330 at 102.90 and September crude oil is up $1.57 per barrel at $78.55. At midmorning soybeans and soy products remain firm, while both corn and wheat have leaked slightly lower on a day with little news. Record yield estimates are offsetting what should be a better demand profile for both soybeans and corn.

Posted 08:37 -- December corn is down 3/4 cent per bushel, November soybeans are up 2 1/2 cents per bushel. September KC wheat is up 1 1/4 cents per bushel, September Chicago wheat is up 3/4 cent per bushel and September Minneapolis wheat is up 2 1/4 cents. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 504.77 points at 40,513.16. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.540 at 103.11 and September crude oil is up $0.98 per barrel at $77.96. Corn, wheat and soybeans are little changed and mixed having relinquished early gains. On the bearish side is the potential for record yields in both corn and soybeans, but demand-wise, the U.S. should hold the upper hand in world markets.

Livestock

OMAHA (DTN) -- October live cattle are down $0.68 at $181.45, September feeder cattle are down $0.03 at $244.325, October lean hogs are up $0.63 at $76.55, December corn is down 1 1/2 cents per bushel and December soybean meal is up $4.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 517.69 points. Still no bids have surfaced for the cash cattle market as packers and feedlot managers go toe to toe. Asking prices are noted in the South at $187 to $188 but remain unestablished still in the North. Packer interest should improve this afternoon.

Posted 08:34 -- October live cattle are down $0.03 at $182.10, September feeder cattle are up $0.78 at $245.125, October lean hogs are down $0.15 at $75.775, December corn is down 1 cent per bushel and December soybean meal is up $0.60. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 426.25 points. Beef net sales of 28,100 mt for 2024 -- a marketing year high -- were up noticeably from the previous week and up 99% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were South Korea (11,400 mt), Japan (6,300 mt) and China (4,400 mt). Pork net sales of 20,900 mt -- a marketing year low -- were down 40% from the previous week and 30% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan (8,300 mt), Mexico (3,300 mt) and South Korea (1,900 mt).

(c) Copyright 2024 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.


https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2024/08/15/periodic-updates-grains-livestock

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Precious Metals

Gold Approaches Record High: 3 Mining Stocks to Buy Now

The price of gold hovers just below its all-time high, capturing the attention of investors as it again tests record levels.

The idea of investing in gold can elicit a wide range of responses from people, from strong vitriol to deep praise. You have the gold bugs on one end, whose portfolios are dominated by the yellow metal, and on the other end you have investing purists, who claim because it has no earnings, it has no place in their portfolio. As with most things in life and investing, the truth lies somewhere in the middle of those two perspectives.

Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years, and though it has not made the same long-term returns as US equities, it can in fact be a valuable hedge in a broadly invested portfolio and can add uncorrelated returns during the most challenging periods.

Furthermore, the shiny metal has put up strong returns YTD, outperforming both equities and US treasuries. Even more impressive is its returns since the start of 2022, which also bests the returns of both stocks and bonds.

Barrick Gold (GOLD), Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) and Eldorado Gold (EGO) are top ranked gold mining stock with bullish tailwinds that investors may consider buying to gain exposure to the yellow metal.

https://www.zacks.com/commentary/2322737/gold-approaches-record-high-3-mining-stocks-to-buy-now

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Base Metals

SGAR project nears completion, set to begin operation by February 2025

The Smelter Grade Alumina Refinery (SGAR) project in Mempawah, West Kalimantan, is nearing completion and is scheduled to begin commercial operation (COD) by February 2025.

This significant development is part of Indonesia’s broader industrial downstreaming program, aimed at adding value to domestically processed mining commodities.

Corporate Secretary of MIND ID, Heri Yusuf, highlighted that the downstreaming initiative, promoted by the government over recent years, aims to enhance the value of mining commodities processed within Indonesia.

This not only increases the market value of these commodities but also boosts state revenue and stimulates national economic growth.

To support this initiative, MIND ID has accelerated the completion of key strategic projects, with the SGAR project being a notable example.

“As a state-owned enterprise, MIND ID is committed to supporting the government by expediting strategic projects, thereby strengthening Indonesia’s downstreaming program and maximizing its benefits for the prosperity of all Indonesian people,” Heri said in a media statement on Wednesday, August 14, 2024.

The SGAR project, with a completion progress of approximately 97 percent, will enter the commissioning phase in September 2024.

The smelter, owned by a consortium consisting of PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Inalum) and PT Aneka Tambang (ANTM) through PT Borneo Alumina Indonesia (BAI), is expected to reach COD in February 2025.

The two MIND ID members have invested up to US$830 million (Rp13.1 trillion) into the SGAR project. Upon completion, this refinery is expected to produce 1 million tons of alumina annually.

The project is also anticipated to have a direct positive impact on the local economy by creating up to 1,000 jobs.

In addition to the SGAR project, MIND ID is also advancing other strategic initiatives, such as a new smelter from Freeport Indonesia capable of refining 1.7 million tons of copper concentrate annually.

This project represents an investment of US$3.67 billion (Rp58 trillion) and will be the largest single-line smelter in the world.

MIND ID has also entered into a joint venture with CATL to establish an upstream battery ecosystem, which includes building a battery factory.

Furthermore, MIND ID is working on developing an industrial park, expected to become a hub for electric vehicle manufacturers in Indonesia.

Looking ahead, MIND ID has several key programs planned for the coming year, including the expansion of the aluminum smelter, enhancement of coal conveyor systems, expansion of tin chemical and tin soldier capacities, and the development of primary tin in block #1 and block #2.

These initiatives are expected to further the company’s mission in line with its state-mandated objectives.


https://indonesiabusinesspost.com/risks-opportunities/sgar-project-nears-completion-set-to-begin-operation-by-february-2025/

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Exxaro closes in on critical metals deal

Exxaro was among the investors that lost out to China’s MMG in a bid for Botswana’s Khoemacau copper mine last year, and it is now conducting due diligence on some potential acquisitions, chief growth officer Richard Lilleike said in an interview.

He said Exxaro has changed the “intensity and level of engagement with potential targets, partners and investors”, but declined to provide more details on a potential acquisition.

“My hope would be to announce a deal in 2024,” Lilleike said after the company posted half-year earnings. “We are certainly working forward that timeline with a number of opportunities.”

A race among global miners for copper assets has driven up valuations for potential acquisition targets, forcing Exxaro to change its strategy to focus on partnerships and early-stage development projects, he added.

Exxaro mines mostly thermal coal burned in power stations and has also invested heavily in renewable energy projects.

Potential deals for manganese projects in its home country are being held back by complex shareholding structures and joint venture agreements, Lilleike said. South Africa is the world’s top producer of manganese – a steelmaking ingredient that’s also found increasing use in electric vehicle battery technologies.

Exxaro’s plan to diversify into other metals comes at a time when it is also battling declining earnings due to lower prices and lack of rail capacity to ship coal to ports for export.

Six-month results for the company showed headline earnings slumped 37% to 3.7 billion rand ($205 million). It said it would pay an interim dividend of 7.96 rand, compared with 11.43 rand last year.

($1 = 18.0469 rand)

(By Nelson Banya; Editing by Felix Njini and David Holmes)


https://www.mining.com/web/exxaro-closes-in-on-critical-metals-deal/

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Developers of stalled MN copper-nickel mine plan studies that may lead to changes

MINNEAPOLIS — The developers of a long-delayed copper-nickel mining project in northeastern Minnesota announced Wednesday that they plan to conduct a series of studies over the next year on potential ways to improve environmental safeguards and make the mine more cost- and energy-efficient, which could lead to significant changes to the design.

The plan is for a $1 billion open-pit mine near Babbitt and a processing plant near Hoyt Lakes that would be Minnesota’s first copper-nickel mine and produce minerals necessary for the clean energy economy. It is a 50-50 joint venture between Swiss commodities giant Glencore and Canada-based Teck Resources. The project was renamed NewRange Copper Nickel last year, but it is still widely known by its old name, PolyMet. The project has been stalled for several years by court and regulatory setbacks, but company officials say they are still moving ahead with preparations at the site.

“The bottom line is this is all about improving efficiency, looking for ways to improve our carbon footprint, reduce greenhouse gases,” NewRange spokesman Bruce Richardson said in an interview. “If there’s a net environmental benefit, which is one of the end goals here, then it’s pretty hard to criticize.”

But environmental groups that have been fighting the project said the announcement is tantamount to an admission that the current mine plan is fundamentally flawed. They say mining the large untapped reserves of copper, nickel and platinum-group metals under northeastern Minnesota would pose unacceptable environmental risks because of the potential for acid mine drainage from the sulfide-bearing ore.

“PolyMet is rethinking every aspect of their mine plan after the courts have told them they have to do it,” Kathryn Hoffman, CEO of the Minnesota Center for Environmental Advocacy, said in an interview.

The studies in four key areas will look at alternative options for storing mine waste, for water treatment, for speeding up production and for reducing carbon emissions. Any major changes likely would be subject to additional environmental reviews and new permitting processes, which NewRange officials said would include opportunities for public comment and feedback. They stressed that nothing has been decided, and they said that they were announcing the studies in the interests of transparency for stakeholders, communities and tribes.

The current plan is to store the mine waste in the former LTV Steel iron mine tailings basin at the processing plant. Colin Marsh, NewRange’s government and external affairs director, said in an interview that they will study whether a different design for the dam at the upgraded basin, or storing waste in old iron mine pits in the area, might have advantages.

They will also look at whether a conveyor system for transporting ore from the mine pit to the plant might make more environmental sense than the current plan for using diesel-powered trains, Marsh said.


https://www.marshallindependent.com/news/national-news-apwire/2024/08/developers-of-stalled-mn-copper-nickel-mine-plan-studies-that-may-lead-to-changes/

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Premium Nickel Resources Ltd. Grants Stock Options

Toronto, Ontario--(Newsfile Corp. - August 15, 2024) - Premium Nickel Resources Ltd. (TSXV: PNRL) ("PNRL" or the "Company") announces that, effective August 14, 2024, it has granted to certain directors, officers, employees and/or consultants of the Company and/or its subsidiaries an aggregate of 3,110,000 stock options of the Company ("Options") pursuant to the stock option plan of the Company.

The Options have an exercise price of $1.10 per share and a five-year term from the date of grant, and vest annually in equal thirds beginning on the date of grant.

About Premium Nickel Resources Ltd.

PNRL is a mineral exploration and development company that is focused on the redevelopment of the previously producing nickel, copper and cobalt resources mines owned by the Company in the Republic of Botswana.

PNRL is committed to governance through transparent accountability and open communication within our team and our stakeholders. Our skilled team has worked over 100 projects collectively, accumulating over 400 years of resource discoveries, mine development and mine re-engineering experience on projects like the Company's Selebi and Selkirk mines. PNRL's senior team members have on average more than 20 years of experience in every single aspect of mine discovery and development, from geology to operations.

ON BEHALF OF THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS

Keith Morrison

Director and Chief Executive Officer

Premium Nickel Resources Ltd.

To view the source version of this press release, please visit https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/219993


https://www.newsfilecorp.com/release/219993/Premium-Nickel-Resources-Ltd.-Grants-Stock-Options

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China July aluminium output rises to highest monthly total in over 20 yrs

China's July aluminium output rose the most in a single month in more than two decades, with producers ramping up operations to benefit from a business that remains profitable even though prices of the metal declined recently.

The world's biggest aluminium producer churned out 3.68 million metric tons of primary aluminium, 6% higher year-on-year, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Thursday.

That marks the highest monthly output since at least 2002.

Daily output in July averaged at 118,710 tons, lower from 122,333 tons in June.

For the first seven months of the year, China produced 25.19 million tons of aluminium, up 6.7% from a year earlier, the data showed.

The yearly increases were attributed to new projects coming online in the northern region of Inner Mongolia in late second quarter, while smelters in other main producing regions maintained strong production thanks to a profitable market.

A rally in aluminium prices drove a surge in smelters' profits in the first half of this year. Average profit in the industry hit about 4,000 yuan ($558.78) per ton in June, the highest since the beginning of 2022, data by Beijing-based aluminium consultancy ALD showed.

"The better-than-expected profits prompted smelters to produce," said Su Yanbo, an aluminium analyst at ALD.

The price rally was mainly driven by frenzied speculation, but the market then fell on profit taking and persistently weak demand in China.

Profit for the metal used in construction and the transportation industries dropped back to above 2,000 yuan in July.

Su expects industry profit to remain at a similar level and output to rise further over the coming months.

Production of 10 nonferrous metals, including copper, aluminium, lead, zinc and nickel, rose 8.2% to 6.56 million tonnes in July from a year earlier. Year-to-date output was up 7.3% at 45.55 million tonnes. The other non-ferrous metals are tin, antimony, mercury, magnesium and titanium.

($1 = 7.1584 Chinese yuan renminbi)


https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2024:newsml_L1N3K203A:0-china-july-aluminium-output-rises-to-highest-monthly-total-in-over-20-yrs/

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Decouple Critical Minerals From China Could Be Costly, Delay Energy Transition - Wood Mackenzie

KUALA LUMPUR, Aug 15 (Bernama) -- As major global economies look to reposition critical minerals supply chains outside China, the resulting inefficiencies could increase the cost of finished goods and delay the energy transition, according to a new report by Wood Mackenzie. The world cannot achieve decarbonisation without copper, a crucial component in electrification. Currently, China dominates copper mining, downstream processing (smelting and refining) and semi-manufacturing. The report estimated that demand for copper is expected to rise by 75 per cent to 56 million tonnes (Mt) by 2050, necessitating substantial investment. Therefore, shifting away from China will require massive investments in new copper processing and fabrication facilities.

bootstrap slideshow The Wood Mackenzie's August Horizons report, ‘Securing copper supply: no China, no energy transition’, states that replacing China’s smelting and refining capability alone to meet the rest of the world's demand would require nearly US$85 billion. (US$1=RM4.41) In a statement, Wood Mackenzie research director, global mining, Nick Pickens said based on the company’s projections, there will be an additional 8.6 Mt of copper demand outside China over the next decade. “This demand represents 70 per cent of smelter capability and 55 per cent of fabricator capacity in the rest of the world. As governments and manufacturers aim to diversify away from China, it is crucial to consider the entire supply chain, not just mining operations,” he said.

The report stated that since 2000, China has accounted for 75 per cent of global smelter capacity growth and currently controls 97 per cent of global smelting and refining capacity, contributing over three Mt of production and nearly US$25 billion in investment. It also highlighted significant shifts in the global copper smelting landscape, with new facilities set to come online this year outside China. India is launching a custom smelter, Indonesia is adding two integrated smelters, and a new smelter in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is expected to be completed by 2025, primarily driven by Chinese investment, will see these additions raising global smelting capacity by 1.6 Mt, according to Wood Mackenzie.


https://www.bernama.com/en/region/news.php?id=2329453

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Steel

Steel Extends Plunge to Near 8-Year Low

Steel rebar futures extended their selloff past CNY 2,790 per tonne in August, the lowest in nearly eight years, amid increasing signs of poor demand.

China's economic slowdown drove demand for new housing to slump in past years, underscored by the fastest annual decline in home prices since 2015 during July.

On top of that, its large-scale housing oversupply crisis and the CCP’s will to modernize the economy instead of keeping it dependent on manufacturing and real estate construction prevented Beijing from passing significant stimulus measures or support for debt-ridden developers, risking their liquidation and halting input buying from one of the world’s top steel-consuming sectors.

This was lastly underscored by the NBS Construction PMI falling to a one-year low in July.

On top of that, Beijing mandated new quality standards for steel rebars after September, driving mills to liquidate old stockpiles before the new standards for the metal become enacted, magnifying the decline.


https://www.tradingview.com/news/te_news:425191:0-steel-extends-plunge-to-near-8-year-low/

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Iron Ore

Iron ore hits over 14-mth low as weak China property data clouds demand outlook

Iron ore futures prices extended their declines to a fourth straight session on Thursday, hitting their lowest level in more than 14 months, as persistently weak property data in top consumer China exacerbated pessimism over the demand outlook.

The most-traded January iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) TIO1! ended morning trade 2.09% lower at 703.5 yuan ($98.32) a metric ton.

The contract hit its lowest since May 26, 2023 at 691 yuan a ton earlier in the session.

The benchmark September iron ore (SZZFU4) on the Singapore Exchange slid 2.81% to $93.5 a ton, as of 0713 GMT, the lowest since November 2022.

Property investment in China fell 10.2% in the first seven months from a year earlier, after dropping 10.1% in January-June. New construction starts measured by floor area fell 23.2% on year, after a 23.7% drop in the first half of the year, official data showed.

The property market remains China's largest steel consumer despite the sector's falling share amid the protracted crisis since 2021.

"We think ore prices will have further downside room in terms of valuation given that it has already broken through a key support level of $100 a ton," analysts at Shengda Futures said in a note.

Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange posted further losses with sharp price falls souring sentiment, analysts said.

Rebar RBF1! lost 0.16%, hot-rolled coil EHR1! fell 1.71%, wire rod (SWRcv1) dropped 0.83% and stainless steel HRC1! was flat.

China's crude steel output in July fell for a second month, declining by 9.5% from June, as many steelmakers carried out maintenance work amid a widening of already negative profit margins.

That brought the total in the first seven months to 613.72 million tons, a year-on-year fall of 2.2%.

Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE somewhat recovered following sharp declines on Wednesday, with coking coal NYMEX:ACT1! and coke (DCJcv1) up 3.52% and 1.18%, respectively.

($1 = 7.1552 Chinese yuan)


https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com,2024:newsml_L1N3K208W:0-iron-ore-hits-over-14-mth-low-as-weak-china-property-data-clouds-demand-outlook/

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Monadelphous banks $340 million in contracts

Monadelphous Group has been awarded new construction contracts in the iron ore and renewable energy sectors, generating approximately $340 million in revenue.

In the iron ore sector, Mondium, Monadelphous’ joint venture with Lycopodium, has secured a significant design and construct contract from Rio Tinto. This will involve the development of a new sampling facility at a port operation in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. The construction work is set to be completed by mid-2026.

Monadelphous has also been awarded a multidisciplinary construction contract under BHP’s WAIO asset panel framework agreement, which focuses on the dewatering of surplus water from Orebody 32 in Newman, WA. This project is slated for completion in the second half of 2025.

In the renewable energy sector, Zenviron, Monadelphous’ joint venture with ZEM Energy, has secured a contract for the delivery of the Lotus Creek wind farm in central Queensland.

The contract, awarded by CS Energy, a Queensland state government-owned entity, involves full balance-of-plant civil and electrical works, as well as the construction of worker accommodation facilities.

Zenviron will partner with Vestas, who will supply and install the wind turbines. The project is expected to commence immediately, with completion anticipated by the end of 2027.

Monadelphous has also been awarded other contracts with Fortescue, Rio Tinto, BHP and Liontown Resources over the last 12 months.

Lynas awarded Monadelphous a construction contract for its Mt Weld expansion project in the Goldfields region of WA, with the scope including structural, mechanical and piping works.

BHP also extended its master services agreement with Monadelphous for general maintenance services at its iron ore operations through to June 30 2025.


https://www.australianmining.com.au/monadelphous-banks-340-million-in-contracts/

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