Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 23, 2025
Feb 23, 2025 - ISW Press
Nicole Wolkov, Angelica Evans, Olivia, Gibson, and George Barros with William Runkel
February 23, 2025, 6:00 pm ET
Note: The data cut-off for this product was 12pm ET on February 23. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the February 24 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff referred to the early 2022 Istanbul protocols as offering "guideposts" for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on February 23. An agreement based on those protocols would be a capitulation document. Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior Russian officials have repeatedly identified the 2022 peace negotiations in Istanbul as their ideal framework for future peace negotiations to end Putin's war in Ukraine, as such a framework would force the West to concede to all of Russia's long-standing demands. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and the New York Times (NYT) reported in March and June 2024 that both publications obtained several versions of the draft treaties from the March and April 2022 Ukrainian-Russian peace negotiations in Istanbul that indicate that both sides initially agreed that Ukraine would forgo its NATO membership aspirations and be a "permanently neutral state that doesn't participate in military blocs."The draft treaties also reportedly banned Ukraine from receiving any foreign weapons or hosting any foreign military personnel. The WSJ and NYT reported that Russia pushed for the Ukrainian military to be limited to 85,000 soldiers, 342 tanks, and 519 artillery systems. Russia also reportedly demanded that Ukrainian missiles be limited to a range of 40 kilometers (25 miles), a range that would allow Russian forces to deploy critical systems and materiel close to Ukraine without fear of strikes. The draft treaties reportedly listed the United States, United Kingdom (UK), the People's Republic of China (PRC), France, and Russia as guarantors of the treaty, and Russia reportedly wanted to include Belarus as a guarantor. The guarantor states were supposed to “terminate international treaties and agreements incompatible with the permanent neutrality [of Ukraine]," including military aid agreements. The draft treaties did not specify if other non-guarantor states would have to terminate their agreements with Ukraine as well, although this is likely considering that the treaty would ban Ukraine from having any foreign-supplied weapons. Russia insisted on these terms in the first and second months of the war when Russian troops were advancing on Kyiv City and throughout northeastern, eastern, and southern Ukraine and before Ukrainian forces conducted successful counteroffensives that liberated significant swaths of territory in Kharkiv and Kherson oblasts.
Ukraine is unlikely to accept any peace agreement based on the Istanbul negotiations as such terms are effectively a full Ukrainian surrender to Russia's long-term war goals. The Istanbul negotiations effectively conceded to Russia's long-standing demands to "denazify" — overthrow and replace the democratically elected Ukrainian government and install a pro-Russian puppet state — and "demilitarize" — constrain and shrink the Ukrainian military beyond the point of being able to defend itself against future Russian aggression — Ukraine. The Istanbul negotiations also conceded to Russia's demands that Ukraine abandon its aspirations to join NATO or any other security blocs in the future. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky walked away from the Istanbul negotiations with the backing of Europe and the United States in 2022 and will almost certainly reject such terms in 2025.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to demonstrate his commitment to preserving Ukraine's democracy and a just resolution to the war. Zelensky responded to a hypothetical question during the "Ukraine. Year 2025" Forum on February 23 about stepping down as president and stated that he is ready to step down in the event of or to facilitate peace or immediate NATO membership for Ukraine. Zelensky noted that he remains committed to holding elections after the war ends and has no interest in being in power "for a decade" and reiterated that Ukraine cannot hold elections until after Russia stops attacking Ukraine and after Ukraine lifts martial law. The Ukrainian Constitution bars the government from holding elections or amending the Ukrainian constitution in times of martial law, and the Ukrainian government legally cannot abolish martial law while Russia continues to attack Ukraine. Zelensky has repeatedly noted Ukraine's commitment to holding fair and democratic elections in the future.
Zelensky stated during the press conference that several European officials will visit Kyiv for the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2025 and reiterated that European countries should be involved in future peace negotiations about the war in Ukraine. Zelensky noted that NATO membership is one of the best security guarantees that Ukraine could receive and that Ukraine would also consider membership in the European Union (EU), Western financing for an 800,000-person-strong Ukrainian military, and the presence of a Western peacekeeping contingent in Ukraine as acceptable security guarantees in the event of a ceasefire with Russia.
Ukrainian officials continue to highlight Ukraine's domestic defense industry and domestically produced strike capabilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated during the "Ukraine. Year 2025" forum on February 23 that Ukraine produced 2.2 million first person view (FPV) drones and over 100,000 long-range drones in 2025 and intends to increase its drone production rate in 2025. Zelensky stated that Ukraine produced 154 artillery systems in 2024 and intends to increase production of artillery systems in 2025 and noted that Ukraine is working to develop an analogue to the US-produced Patriot air defense system. Zelensky noted that Ukraine funded 40 percent, European countries funded 30 percent, and the United States funded another 30 percent of Ukraine's domestic defense production in 2024. Zelensky stated that Ukraine intends to fund 50 percent of its domestic defense production in 2025.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov stated at the forum that Ukraine has become the largest producer of tactical and long-range drones in the world and that 96 percent of the Ukrainian military's drones are purchased or produced in Ukraine.[13] Ukrainian Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced that Ukraine intends to operationalize technology that will allow a single drone operator to control multiple drones in a "swarm" in 2025.[14] Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksander Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces conducted 130 long-range operations and struck 377 objects in Russia in 2024.[15] Syrskyi noted that Ukraine has deployed over 1.3 million drones to the frontline and is working to increase its production of fiber-optic drones. Syrskyi stated that Ukrainian long-range drones can strike targets up to 1,700 kilometres deep in Russian territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin appointed Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) CEO Kirill Dmitriev as Special Presidential Representative for Investment and Economic Cooperation with Foreign Countries on February 23. Dmitriev was part of the Russian delegation that met with US officials in Saudi Arabia on February 17, and a source close to the Kremlin told Russian opposition outlet Meduza in an article published on February 19 that Dmitriev's appointment to the delegation appeared largely as a response to US demands that Russia appoint someone that would "understand" the United States, likely given his experiences living and studying in the US at Standford University and Harvard University and working for US companies.
Russian forces launched a record number of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of February 22 to 23, ahead of the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on February 23 that Russian forces launched three Iskander-M/North Korean-provided KN-23 ballistic missiles from occupied Crimea and 267 Shahed and other drones from the directions of Oryol, Bryansk, and Kursk cities; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 138 Shahed and decoy drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Zhytomyr, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts; that 119 drones were “lost,” likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference; and that three drones flew toward Belarusian airspace. Ukrainian officials reported that drones damaged infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Poltava, Kyiv, and Zaporizhia oblasts and that a missile damaged civilian infrastructure in Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 23 that Russia launched the largest number of Shahed drones against Ukraine on the night of February 22 to 23.
Russia appears to be relying more on Iran and North Korea to support its war in Ukraine. Iran has largely enabled Russia to launch near nightly series of large drone strikes as it has provided Russia with Iranian designed and produced Shahed drones and helped Russia establish its own Shahed drone production facility in Tatarstan Republic. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov stated on February 23 during the "Ukraine. Year 2025" Forum on February 23 that half of Russia's ammunition comes from North Korea and that North Korea has started large-scale deliveries of 170mm self-propelled artillery system and 240mm multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Budanov added that North Korea plans to provide Russia with 148 ballistic missiles, presumably in 2025.
Russian forces continue to execute Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in clear violation of international law. Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets reported on February 23 that footage circulating on social media shows a Russian servicemember executing a Ukrainian POW in an unspecified area of Kursk Oblast. ISW has observed and reported on numerous instances of Russian servicemembers executing Ukrainian POWs along the frontline in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast and continues to assess that this is a systemic trend in the Russian military and that Russian commanders are either complicit in or directly enabling their subordinates to conduct such atrocities.
Key Takeaways:
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-23-2025
More than three-quarters of the world’s cobalt comes from Congo. Credit: The Impact Facility
The Democratic Republic of Congo says it’s suspending cobalt exports for four months to rein in oversupply of the battery metal on the international market.
Cobalt production in Congo – which produces about three-quarters of the material used in electric-vehicle batteries – has soared in recent years, as China’s CMOC Group Ltd. ramped up output at two large mines in the country causing supply to race ahead of demand and prices to tumble.
“Exports must be aligned with world demand,” Patrick Luabeya, president of the Authority for the Regulation and Control of Strategic Mineral Substances’ Markets, known as ARECOMS, told Bloomberg News in written responses to questions.
The measure came into force on Feb. 22, according to Luabeya. A day earlier, the prime minister and mines minister signed a decree, seen by Bloomberg, allowing the regulator to take temporary action, including barring exports, “in case of circumstances affecting the stability of the market.”
Benchmark metal prices have dropped below $10 a pound, a level not breached for 21 years apart from a brief dip in late 2015, according to Fastmarkets data. Cobalt hydroxide, the main form of the metal produced in Congo, has slid below $6 a pound.
Glencore Plc, which operates a pair of mines in Congo, was the biggest miner of the metal for years until it was overtaken by CMOC in 2023. The Chinese company’s output tripled that of the Swiss commodities giant last year, accounting for more than 40% of total global supply. It’s targeting similar volumes in 2025.
While overall demand for cobalt continues to rise, it’s been outpaced by fresh supply and EV batteries that don’t contain the metal have been gaining market share. The surplus is expected until the end of the decade, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence analysis completed before the suspension was announced.
The government of Congo, which is also the world’s second-biggest producer of copper, “has been carefully reviewing market dynamics” for a year, Luabeya said.
The situation required “immediate action” as years of illegal mining and uncontrolled exports from both industrial and semi-industrial producers led to excessive supply, “posing a serious threat to the country and its domestic and international investors,” he said.
Cobalt is extracted as a byproduct of copper mining in Congo. While the block on cobalt shipments applies to all producers “unilaterally and without exception,” there are no curbs on production and there should be no impact on copper exports, Luabeya said. “Since copper and cobalt are marketed separately, exports of copper can continue.” CMOC is also Congo’s top copper producer.
The largest cobalt miner after CMOC and Glencore is Kazakhstan-backed Eurasian Resources Group Sarl. Glencore declined to comment, while CMOC and ERG didn’t respond to questions seeking comment on the export suspension.
About two-thirds of global mine supply is owned by companies from China, which accounted for around 60% of cobalt demand last year, according to specialist trading house Darton Commodities.
Congo will review the export curbs in three months, Luabeya said. Meanwhile, ARECOMS is preparing additional measures to balance the cobalt market, encourage the processing of strategic minerals in the country and achieve “a transparent and fair pricing mechanism,” he said.
The suspension comes a year after President Felix Tshisekedi tasked his government with designing policies to improve cobalt prices. Export quotas – one of the options suggested by Tshisekedi – are being considered “but no decision has been made yet,” Luabeya said.
https://www.mining.com/web/congo-suspends-cobalt-exports-for-four-months-amid-oversupply/
Ukraine-Russia war latest: Zelensky strikes minerals deal with Trump but ‘no specific US security guarantees’
Ukraine has agreed on a crucial minerals deal with the US after the Trump administration dropped key demands.
The draft agreement, however, does not specify any US security guarantees or continued flow of weapons but says that the US wants Ukraine to be free, sovereign and secure, Reuters reported, citing sources.
Kyiv hopes the deal, which will see a fund established between the two countries as they jointly develop Ukraine’s mineral resources, according to the Financial Times, will boost its faltering relationship with Washington.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky plans to visit Washington on Friday to meet Mr Trump after the terms were agreed.
The US dropped Mr Trump’s demand for $500bn in potential revenue from Ukrainian resources, a condition which was rejected out-of-hand by the Ukrainian president.
Included in the deal was a US commitment to back Ukraine’s economic development into the future. Deputy prime minister Olha Stefanishyna told the FT: “The minerals agreement is only part of the picture. We have heard multiple times from the US administration that it’s part of a bigger picture.”
Germany's Election and the Shifting Sands of European Security
By Eurasianet - Feb 26, 2025, 2:00 PM CST
The incoming conservative-led government in Germany will face daunting challenges as it confronts a rapidly changing security environment in Europe while trying to protect Ukrainian sovereignty.
On the one hand, there is “an autocratic, perhaps even totalitarian aggressor” in the Kremlin, and on the other, “an unpredictable actor within the system of checks and balances” in the White House, Timm Beichelt, a professor at the European University Viadrina, told Eurasianet. The “aggressor versus friend” dichotomy has disappeared, and an unprecedented shift in Germany’s trans-Atlantic relations is occurring, Beichelt added.
This is the situation now facing Friedrich Merz, Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting. After winning the federal election February 23, his center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) now must engage in difficult talks on forming a government with the likely coalition partner being the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Only after a government is in place will Merz be able to address the security conundrum.
Merz has made it clear that his immediate foreign policy priority is strengthening European defense capabilities as quickly as possible “so that we can really achieve independence from the US step by step.” He has previously toyed with the idea of a new European defense alliance, hinting at the possibility of persuading France to extend its nuclear umbrella over Germany. On February 23, he went so far as to ask whether, at a NATO summit in June, “we will still be talking about NATO in its current form” or whether “we will have to establish an independent European defense capability much more quickly.”
“It is a completely different constellation now,” Beichelt said. “So, it might be time for the German government to look at [the Treaty on European Union] and somehow spell out to what extent this could actually be an operational mechanism” to bolster European defense capabilities.
According to Zsuzsanna Végh, a program officer at the German Marshall Fund, Merz’s government will strive to act as “a driving force behind strengthening the defense agenda within the EU.” This transformation, she added, will take time.
In the meantime, what to do about Ukraine? As Merz tries to form a stable German government, the Trump administration is trying to cut a Ukraine deal with Russia that could place Europe in a precarious security position. By all appearances, the White House is willing to agree to a ceasefire agreement that is highly beneficial to Russia. After talks with Trump in Washington, French President Emmanuel Macron said a truce could come within weeks.
“The United States is moving forward without Europe right now because it sees the EU as a minor player on the field,” Végh said.
There is not much Merz can do presently to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities. In December 2024, he promised to supply long-range Taurus missiles to Ukraine if he became chancellor. The question is whether he will now go ahead with these deliveries, in a symbolic gesture to demonstrate Berlin’s leadership on the Ukrainian agenda as Kyiv has entered the fourth year of war.
Végh believed that circumstances have become much more complex and that “the context itself is changing rapidly.” Members of the Free Democrats (FDP), a centrist party that did not make it into parliament, have called on Merz to act immediately. But as early as December, he indicated that Berlin would not act “unilaterally” on the missile-supply issue, but only in close consultation with Washington and European allies.
“The move would also have to be approved and decided by the new coalition government between the CDU, its sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU), and the SPD,” Végh added.
The negotiations to form a government promise to be complicated, but a grand coalition will likely not mean a significant shift on Germany’s Ukraine stance. Leading Social Democratic Party politicians, including Lars Klingbeil and Boris Pistorius, have been stoutly pro-Ukraine. Pistorius, the outgoing defense minister, has been an outspoken critic of Russia, and earlier in February said it was “regrettable” that the Trump administration “has made public concessions to [Russian leader Vladimir] Putin before [ceasefire] negotiations have even begun.”
One of the key issues on the table is the reform of Germany’s constitutionally enshrined debt brake. Defense spending is becoming increasingly important given the security gap Germany and Europe face as the Trump administration’s rapprochement with Russia grows. “The goal is not to remove the debt brake altogether, but to create room for fiscal maneuver,” said Nils Diederich, a German Social Democratic Party politician and political scientist.
The conservative bloc, the Social Democrats, and the Greens will not have the two-thirds majority in the new parliament to push through the reform. And the Left Party would only support an increase in defense spending if it were linked to social improvements. These potential difficulties in getting the changes through, whether in this or the next parliament, make the question of Germany’s ability to fund its growing defense ambitions while balancing this with support for Ukraine all the more challenging.
Meanwhile, amid mounting financial strains, a growing rift with the US, and difficulties on the Ukrainian front, experts believe Berlin’s Central Asia policy under Merz’s leadership will remain on the back burner. Beichelt does not expect a drastic departure from the regional course set by the outgoing government. “I don’t see any reason why Germany should withdraw from the Z5+1 format it has established with all five Central Asian states. It is a useful framework,” he said.
Beichelt believes the format contributes to the German government’s view that multilateralism is the way forward. “The fact that Trump is now turning to bilateralism is an encouragement for Berlin to invest even more in multilateral formats,” he said.
https://eurasianet.org/what-does-german-election-mean-for-ukraine
The Renegade Order
How Trump Wields American Power
Hal Brands
March/April 2025 Published on February 25, 2025
Donald Trump has already transformed the American political order. Not since Ronald Reagan has a president so dominated the national landscape or shifted its ideological terrain. In his second term, Trump could reshape global order in ways no less profound.
Today’s reigning, U.S.-led international system—call it Pax Americana, the liberal order, or the rules-based international order—arose from a brutal Eurasian century. The great global struggles of the modern era were contests to rule the Eurasian supercontinent. They inflicted horrific damage on humanity. They also created the most successful international order the world has ever known. That system has provided generations of great-power peace, prosperity, and democratic supremacy. It has bestowed pervasive, world-changing benefits that are now taken for granted. After the West’s victory in the Cold War, Washington sought to make that order global and permanent. Now, however, a fourth battle for Eurasia is raging, and the system is being menaced on every front.
All around Eurasia’s vibrant, vital periphery, revisionist states are on the move. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia are attacking the regional foundations of Eurasian stability. They are forging alliances based on hostility to a liberal system that threatens illiberal rulers and inhibits their neoimperial dreams. War or the threat of war has become pervasive. The norms of a peaceful, prosperous world are under assault. The recurring terror of the last century was that Eurasian aggressors might make the world unfit for freedom by making it safe for predation and tyranny. That danger has flared anew today.
Trump isn’t the ideal defender of an imperiled American order. Indeed, one suspects he hardly thinks about international order at all. Trump is a hard-line nationalist who pursues power, profit, and unilateral advantage. He thinks in zero-sum terms and believes the United States has long been made a sucker by the entire world. Yet Trump intuitively understands something that many liberal internationalists forget: order flows from power and can hardly be preserved without it.
In Trump’s first term, that insight helped the United States begin a messy adjustment to the realities of a rivalrous age. In his second term, it could inform a foreign policy that—by squeezing adversaries as well as allies—bolsters the free world’s defenses for the fateful fights ahead. The world has long passed the point at which American leaders can aspire to globalize the liberal order. But Trump could succeed at today’s more limited and more vital undertaking: upholding a balance of power that preserves that order’s essential achievements against Eurasian aggressors determined to tear them down.
The problem is that this will require Trump to consistently channel his best geopolitical instincts when he will be sorely tempted to follow his most destructive ones instead. If he follows this destructive path, the United States will become less globally engaged but more aggressive, unilateral, and illiberal. It won’t be an absent superpower but a renegade one—a country that stokes global chaos and helps its enemies break the U.S.-led system. Trump’s presidency offers an opportunity to steer Washington toward a stronger, if less sweeping, defense of its global interests. Yet it also presents a grave danger: that Trump will take the United States not into isolationism but into something far more lethal to the world his forebears built.
CYCLES OF CONFLICT
Eurasia has long been the crucial theater of global politics. The sprawling landmass holds most of the earth’s people, economic resources, and military potential. It touches all four oceans, which carry goods and armies around the world. An empire that ruled Eurasia would have unmatched power; it could batter or intimidate the most distant foes. Three times in the modern era, the world has been convulsed by fights over the supercontinent and the waters around it.
In World War I, Germany sought a European empire stretching from the English Channel to the Caucasus. In World War II, a fascist alliance ran roughshod over Europe and maritime Asia and invaded the Eurasian interiors of China and the Soviet Union. In the Cold War, the Soviet Union assembled an empire of influence that stretched from Potsdam to Pyongyang and waged a decades-long struggle to overthrow the capitalist world.
Eurasian conflicts shattered continents and confronted humanity with the risk of atomic annihilation. Yet they also created opportunities for order. In the world wars, transoceanic coalitions turned back Eurasian aggressors, forging patterns of cooperation that brought the United States into the Old World’s strategic affairs. In the Cold War, Washington—twice burned by Eurasian conflagrations—opted to keep the supercontinent from combusting again.
American alliances deterred aggression against Eurasia’s industrially dynamic margins—Western Europe and East Asia—while also smothering old tensions within them. A U.S.-led international economy muted the autarkic, radicalizing impulses of the pre–World War II era. Washington cultivated a Western community in which democracy survived, thrived, and later spread to other regions. Only unprecedented investments by the overseas superpower could break the cycle of Eurasian conflict. The payoffs were historic advances—the avoidance, since 1945, of global war and global depression; the ascendancy of democratic values; seas made safe for trade and states made safe from death by conquest—that would have seemed impossible just decades before.
During the Cold War, the achievements of this order—then confined to the West—helped defeat the Soviet Union. In the unipolar era that followed, Washington tried to take its system global. The United States preserved and even expanded its Eurasian alliances as sources of influence and stability. It promoted democracy and markets in eastern Europe and other regions, trying to co-opt potential challenges by showing that people there could flourish in Washington’s world. Over time, the thinking went, this three-part package of U.S. hegemony, political convergence, and economic integration would foster a deep, enduring peace across Eurasia and beyond.
This post–Cold War project probably prevented an earlier, faster reversion to global rivalry. It made the world freer, richer, and more humane. But lasting Eurasian peace remained elusive. To illiberal states that sought to build or rebuild their own empires, the liberal order looked not enticing but oppressive. China and Russia used the prosperity that the U.S.-led system fostered to bankroll renewed geopolitical challenges. And American overreach in Afghanistan and Iraq left the United States poorly situated to resist the resulting threats during a critical decade. Today, a new geopolitical era is unfolding. The enemies of the liberal order have reclaimed the initiative, and Eurasia is once again the site of vicious struggles.
REVISIONISTS’ BALL
Every crucial corner of Eurasia is alight with coercion and conflict. In Europe, Russia’s war against Ukraine is also a war to rebuild a post-Soviet empire and fracture the existing security order. The covert counterpart of that war is a campaign of subversion spanning the continent, as the Kremlin conducts sabotage and political destabilization operations meant to punish its European foes. In the Middle East, Iran and its proxies have been battling Israel, the United States, and their Arab allies while Tehran has crept closer to the nuclear weapons it believes will indemnify its regime and ensure its regional primacy. In Northeast Asia, North Korea is improving its nuclear arsenal and long-range missiles, and it means to use the resulting leverage to sever the U.S.–South Korean alliance and bring the peninsula under its control. China, for its part, is bent on global power. For now, it is bullying its neighbors as part of a bid for a hulking sphere of influence—“Asia for Asians,” Chinese leader Xi Jinping calls it—and readying for war in the western Pacific by conducting one of the biggest military buildups in modern history.
From eastern Europe to East Asia, revisionist powers are seeking dramatic changes in the global balance of power. They are also trying to wreck the liberal order by smashing its most crucial norms. Russian President Vladimir Putin is reasserting the principle that strong states can swallow weaker neighbors. China’s revanchist claims and maritime coercion in the South China Sea are meant to show that big countries can simply grab the global commons. Putin’s quasi-genocidal barbarities in Ukraine and Xi’s industrial-scale repression in Xinjiang threaten to restore a world of autocratic impunity and rampant atrocity. The Houthis, a Yemeni militia backed by Iran, have created their own fundamental challenge to freedom of navigation, using drones and missiles to attack shipping in the Red Sea.
Each revisionist power seeks an environment conducive to repression and predation. Each understands it can best achieve its aims if the American order is laid low. The world is undergoing changes “the likes of which we haven’t seen for 100 years,” Xi told Putin in 2023—and the revisionists are pursuing those changes together.
China and Russia are linked in a “no limits” partnership that features ever-deeper economic, technological, and military cooperation. Iran and Russia have an expanding relationship that includes the exchange of weapons, technology, and expertise in how to evade Western sanctions. North Korea and Russia have sealed a full-blown military alliance and are fighting together against Ukraine. These ties don’t yet add up to a single, multilateral alliance. U.S. officials sometimes dismiss them as proof of Russia’s isolation and desperation amid its war in Ukraine. But the relationships are part of a thickening web of ties among the world’s most dangerous states, and they are already inflicting serious strategic harm.
Autocratic alliances intensify challenges to the existing order. Putin’s war in Ukraine, for example, has been sustained by the arms, troops, and trade he gets from his illiberal friends. A dictators’ peace within Eurasia also raises the risk of conflict around its margins. Putin can focus on Ukraine and Xi can more aggressively probe American power in maritime Asia because the two leaders know that their long, shared border is secure. These alliances are also changing regional military balances by giving Putin the arms he needs in Ukraine and by giving Putin’s partners the Russian weapons, technology, and know-how to accelerate their own buildups. Perhaps most alarming, these relationships fuse Eurasian crises.
Ukraine’s war has become a global proxy war, pitting the advanced democracies that support Kyiv against the Eurasian autocracies that back Moscow. And as autocratic alignments cohere, Washington must face the prospect that a war that starts in one region could spill over into others—and that the next country the United States fights could receive aid from its autocratic friends. In the meantime, the multiplicity of Eurasian problems overtaxes American resources and creates an atmosphere of pervasive, proliferating disarray. The strategic nightmare of the twentieth century—that Eurasian aggressors might combine forces to upend the global order—has been revived in the twenty-first.
HOLLOW VICTORIES
Trump is not the obvious man for this moment—in some ways, it’s hard to imagine anyone worse suited to it. He originally rode to power on a blistering critique of American globalism. He spent his first term tormenting allies and threatening to withdraw from trade deals and defense pacts that serve as pillars of the U.S.-led world order. His illiberal, even insurrectionary tendencies made him a model for would-be strongmen from Brazil to Hungary. If analysts have obsessed over the state of the liberal order during the Trump era, it is because he often seems set on throwing it all away.
Trump certainly lacks admiration for the liberal order’s achievements and sympathy for its basic ethos. His “America first” agenda holds that the world’s mightiest power has been systematically exploited by the system it created and that a country that has long shouldered unique global burdens has no obligation to pursue anything but its own self-interest, narrowly construed. He has little interest in the flourishing of liberal values overseas. Moreover, Trump has no respect for the orthodoxies of his predecessors, including their belief in the geopolitically soothing effects of globalization or their tendency to treat alliances as sacred obligations. Throughout Trump’s first term, his disdain for these traditions drove committed internationalists to despair and produced corrosive uncertainty within the democratic world. But Trump’s instincts also helped him spot accumulating problems in the post–Cold War project and initiate some needed adjustments.
First, Trump recognized that globalization had gone too far. Welcoming autocratic states—China, in particular—into the world economy had not made them members of a global community or primed them for political evolution. Instead, it had entrenched dictators and empowered them to challenge the United States. Whatever its economic merits, globalization created strategic vulnerabilities, such as Europe’s dependence on Russian energy and the democratic world’s entanglement with Chinese telecommunications firms. Trump recognized that defending American interests would require limiting and even reversing global integration—especially with countries on the other side of the widening geopolitical divide.
Trump also saw that the post–Cold War defense paradigm—in which U.S. allies disarmed and relied ever more heavily on a unipolar superpower—was out of date. That approach worked in the 1990s, when tensions were low and many analysts feared that U.S. allies, such as Germany and Japan, might rise again as threats. Instead, autocratic rivals reemerged and rearmed. Trump’s first term thus saw sustained, sometimes humiliating pressure on allies to raise defense spending, along with efforts to pivot the Pentagon away from counterterrorism and counterinsurgency and toward great-power threats.
Most fundamentally, Trump concluded that the ascendancy of the liberal order was over and the world of cutthroat power politics was back. Washington would henceforth demand more from its friends because it faced growing dangers from its enemies. The United States would have to wield its influence more aggressively against countries trying to reshape the system to their advantage—including through a “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran and strategic competition with China. It might have to downgrade democratic values to cultivate motley balancing coalitions, such as anti-Chinese alliances in the Indo-Pacific and stronger Arab-Israeli cooperation against Iran. In sum, Washington should focus less on the positive-sum project of globalizing the liberal order and more on the zero-sum imperative of stopping determined adversaries from imposing their own, antithetical visions of how the world should work.
Unfortunately, Trump never got as much as he could have out of these insights, because his good ideas were always at war with his bad ideas and because his administration was always at war with itself. His policies were often incomplete, inconsistent, or contradictory. His record during his first term was highly ambiguous: Trump damaged and derided the American order but also protected it from its excesses and its enemies. In the higher-stakes environment of his second term, he has a chance to be the ambivalent savior of that system—if he can resist the temptation to be its gravedigger.
REBALANCING ACT
One thing is certain: Trump will not become a lover of the liberal order. His geopolitical inclinations have not changed, and his antidemocratic tendencies have only gotten worse. His “America first” platform still features a stark, omnidirectional nationalism aimed at friends, enemies, and everyone in between. Yet given the state of the world, a sharp-elbowed superpower might not be the worst thing right now. If Trump can harness his more constructive impulses, he has a chance to pressure adversaries, coax more out of allies, and reinforce resistance to the Eurasian assault. More fundamentally, he has an opportunity to rightsize the U.S. approach to international order—to complete the shift to an era in which the United States isn’t expanding the liberal project but simply preventing its achievements from being destroyed.
Step one would be a major military buildup. The international order is sagging because the military balance of power is sagging. The Pentagon doesn’t have the resources to thrash Iran’s proxies while also countering China; it struggles to both arm Ukraine and support Taiwan. The United States probably could not buy enough military power to face all its rivals simultaneously. But if Trump’s “peace through strength” program took U.S. spending from just over three percent to around four percent of GDP, it could ease crippling munitions shortfalls and narrow the gap between Washington’s commitments and its capabilities. This would also require significantly more military spending by U.S. allies, which Trump—who might really kick free riders to the curb—could probably get.
Thus, a second initiative: tougher bargains with allies. Trump is wrong if he thinks that Washington doesn’t need alliances. But he is right that imperiled allies need them even more. There is an opportunity here to renegotiate existing security pacts. If frontline Asian democracies expect the United States to potentially fight World War III against China, they should make outlays commensurate with the existential threat they perceive. Likewise, the price for Trump’s commitment to NATO might be a European pledge to spend dramatically more—say, 3.5 percent of GDP—on defense, buy U.S. weapons to support Ukraine, and align with American tech and trade controls vis-à-vis Beijing. The process of renegotiating the transatlantic compact could be ugly. But the payoff would strengthen the alliance against two Eurasian threats.
Of course, Europe will not be stable without a decent peace in Ukraine. Trump’s promise to end that war quickly and cleanly is unrealistic. He might fail to end it at all. But his desire to do so does coincide with the imperative of preventing Ukraine from losing and the autocratic axis from winning a war that is gradually, but unmistakably, going in the wrong direction. In the near term, this will require accelerating the crisis facing Putin’s war effort by ramping up sanctions on Russia’s energy sector and its trade with China while delaying an equivalent crisis in Kyiv by conditioning continued support on fuller mobilization of Ukraine’s military-age population. In the longer term, Washington will need to fashion security guarantees for Ukraine that foreground European initiative but feature a credible American backstop.
Meanwhile, Trump could challenge the Eurasian axis by squeezing its weakest link. In recent months, Israel has brightened a grim geopolitical landscape by battering Iran and its proxies. Trump could increase the strain through aggressive sanctions and threats of fresh military action, whether U.S. or Israeli, against Tehran and what remains of its “axis of resistance.” The goal would be to bolster Middle Eastern stability by imposing new curbs on Iran’s nuclear program and limiting its capacity for sowing regional chaos. If Trump simultaneously compelled a vulnerable Iran to stop sending Putin drones and missiles—or simply revealed the limits of Moscow’s support for Tehran in a crisis—he might start the long, difficult process of straining the revisionist entente.
Trump could also craft a sharper China strategy by building on Biden-era policies that, in turn, built on Trump’s own first-term initiatives. Beijing’s belligerence should help the Pentagon keep stitching together tighter security relationships—and perhaps establish more military basing opportunities—in the Indo-Pacific. Higher U.S. and allied defense spending and larger weapons sales to Taiwan could slow the erosion of Washington’s military advantage. Harsher technology controls and tariffs could compound China’s economic crisis—if Trump doesn’t trade them away for a deal to sell Beijing more soybeans. Trump won’t win the struggle between Washington and Beijing, but he might strengthen the U.S. position for the long contest ahead.
Finally, Trump should seek to exploit escalation rather than avoid it. From Ukraine to the Middle East, the Biden administration painstakingly calibrated and telegraphed its moves to avoid escalatory spirals. Minimizing that risk sometimes allowed U.S. adversaries to predict and even dictate the tempo of these interactions. Trump, for his part, prizes unpredictability. If he showed, however, that he would cross new thresholds with little warning—by sanctioning Chinese banks that are facilitating Putin’s war or striking Iran in response to Houthi attacks in the Red Sea—he could force U.S. adversaries to contemplate uncontrolled escalation with the world’s strongest power.
All this would amount to an ambivalent defense of the liberal order. Trump might still engage in gratuitous protectionism and pick pointless diplomatic squabbles. But he could nevertheless achieve something essential: shoring up the strategic bargains and geopolitical barriers that keep the enemies of the U.S.-led order from breaking through.
REFORM OR REVOLUTION?
This agenda could stumble on its own contradictions: Trump will struggle to boost military spending, cut taxes, and slash the deficit all at once. Likewise, it will be hard to rally U.S. allies against China while pummeling them with protectionist measures. Trump could also falter because a world of ambitious, colluding autocracies is difficult even for the most skillful superpower to handle. Most fundamentally, Trump might fail because he is more of a wrecking ball than an architect—and he may take American policy down a darker course.
The most crucial question about Trump has always been whether he means to reform or revolutionize U.S. foreign policy. In his first term, the answer was usually closer to reform than revolution, thanks to the moderating influence of advisers and Republican allies and also because Trump—who delights in extorting diplomatic ransoms—hesitated to shoot the hostage by tearing up the North American Free Trade Agreement or leaving NATO. Yet Trump did, by all accounts, seriously consider pulling the trigger. His “America first” slogan is straight out of the 1930s. So if the optimistic scenario is that a president focused on posterity keeps reforming U.S. strategy for a viciously competitive era, the pessimistic scenario is that a president who now rules his party and administration will unleash the revolution with a purer, more radical version of “America first.”
This latter scenario would not mean a return to isolationism, since there is no such American tradition. Before World War I, the United States wasn’t a Eurasian stabilizer, but it was a hemispheric hegemon with a long, sometimes bloody record of territorial expansion. Today, a nastier version of “America first” would be lethal to the liberal order not just because the United States would say goodbye to Eurasian security commitments but because it would become more predatory and illiberal to boot.
The outlines of this agenda are not a mystery; Trump talks about them all the time. He has long mused about quitting NATO and other alliances, which bother him precisely because they tie the fate of the United States—history’s most physically secure country—to obscure disputes in distant regions. If U.S. allies cannot or will not hit higher spending targets, perhaps because Trump makes his demands too extreme, he might finally obtain his pretext to bring the legions home.
Likewise, if Trump tires of the travails of peacemaking in Ukraine, he might just walk away from that conflict and leave the Europeans to deal with the mess. If he sees Taiwan primarily as a high-tech rival, not a crucial security partner, he might slash U.S. support in exchange for economic benefits from Beijing. The United States would still maintain a mighty military, no doubt, but it would be one that is focused on fighting cartels in the New World rather than containing expansionists in the Old World. In the near term, this approach would insulate the United States from Eurasian quarrels and produce “wins” in trade concessions and dollars saved. Over time, however, it would dramatically raise the odds of key regions plunging into chaos or falling under the sway of aggressive states.
Rival powers might still suffer under this agenda. If Trump imposes the extreme 60 percent tariffs that he has threatened, he will hammer China’s export-dependent economy. If he wields tariffs mercilessly as tools of leverage, he will surely squeeze some concessions out of allies and adversaries alike. Yet harm to economic competitors might be outweighed by self-harm to the American system. Aggressive protectionism would reduce the collective prosperity that has long held the democratic world together and kill the cohesion needed to check a mercantilist China. Similarly, if Trump uses tariffs and sanctions, rather than global leadership and security commitments, to bolster the dollar’s primacy, he might make Washington look just as exploitative as the countries whose ambitions it means to thwart.
Meanwhile, the United States wouldn’t simply be de-emphasizing liberal norms and values; it would be casting a long, illiberal shadow. If Trump shutters hostile media outlets or turns the military or law enforcement agencies against his enemies, he will weaken American democracy while offering political cover, and a playbook, to every aspiring autocrat who wishes to attack a free society from within. Trump might also set back democratic values by coercing Ukraine into a lousy peace or supporting Hungarian President Viktor Orban and other rulers who seek to dismantle European liberalism. The balance of ideas reflects the balance of power. The democratic recession of recent years could become a rout if Washington quits the fight for the world’s ideological future—or, worse still, joins the other side.
Indeed, this version of “America first” wouldn’t just clear the way for Eurasia’s revisionists; it could well aid their cause. The revisionists aim to create an environment primed for expansion and plunder. Perhaps Trump gets along so well with Putin and Xi because he wants the same thing. Trump has said that the United States must annex Greenland, make Canada the 51st state, and reclaim the Panama Canal. He seems to envision a world in which strong states and strong rulers can do more or less as they like. Maybe this is all clever diplomacy—or mere trolling. But the further Trump takes this expansionist agenda, the more he risks alienating Washington’s closest allies and abetting the autocrats’ spheres-of-influence game.
These possibilities constitute a nightmare scenario for those who rely on the American order, but nightmares don’t always come true. Such a radical reengineering of U.S. strategy would face resistance from Democrats and some Republicans in Congress, and from the bureaucratic and international inertia that generations of American engagement have fostered. Stock markets would not react well to a protectionist onslaught. Yet the disquieting fact remains that a country with an extremely powerful executive branch has twice elected a president who seems deeply attracted to a slash-and-burn approach. Imagining an illiberal, renegade United States is only a matter of taking seriously what Trump says. The greatest risk of his second term, then, is not that he will abandon the liberal order. It is that he will make the United States actively complicit in its demise.
WHICH WAY IS UP?
The potential upside of Trump’s presidency is substantial. The potential downside is an abyss. The existence of such extreme possibilities is a source of international instability in its own right. It is also a testament to the double-edged nature of the hard-line nationalism Trump represents. If applied with discipline and a constructive spirit, such an approach could plausibly help the United States hold the Eurasian aggressors at bay. In a more extreme, unmoderated form, it could prove fatal to a system that requires a broad view of U.S. interests, a commitment to liberal values, and an ability to wield unmatched power with the right blend of assertiveness and restraint.
Here, unfortunately, lies the real problem with the optimistic framing: it requires assuming that Trump, a man who assiduously nurses his personal and geopolitical grievances, will discover—at the very moment he feels most empowered—the best, most globally minded and most diplomatically savvy version of himself. All those in the United States and elsewhere with a stake in the survival of the liberal order should hope that Trump rises to this challenge. But they should probably brace for the prospect that Trump’s world could become a very dark place.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/renegade-order-trump-hal-brands
I have asked around my circles and can't seem to get a straight answer on why Nvidia's (NVDA) stock looks so cheaply valued on a price-to-earnings multiple basis.
So, I am coming to you for answers — drop them to me on X @BrianSozzi. What am I missing with Nvidia? Let's discuss!
I caution this is not me suggesting a Nvidia buying spree heading into earnings on Feb. 26. Yahoo Finance isn't a stock trading platform or investment bank. We are in the context game as it pertains to investing.
This is just a general callout that the market may have a flaw in how it's valuing Nvidia.
Nvidia is among the most cheaply valued AI stocks at the moment, if you can wrap your head around that one!
On a forward price-to-earnings multiple basis, Yahoo Finance data shows Nvidia trading at 31 times. Broadcom (AVGO) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) are valued at 35 times and 41 times, respectively. Arm Holdings (ARM) clocks in at 76 times.
Zoom out further, and Nvidia's stock is trading at a discount to several other "Magnificent Seven" members.
Tesla's (TSLA) stock is trading at 121 times forward earnings. Amazon (AMZN) trades at 36 times.
There are two reasons for this odd valuation level on Nvidia, the former analyst in me posits.
One, the Street is underbaking its forward estimates on Nvidia's earnings power.
Yahoo Finance data shows Nvidia's first quarter earnings per share (EPS) trend has drifted modestly lower over the past 30 days. The Street has also not pushed up its 2025 EPS estimates on Nvidia for more than 60 days.
I find this bizarre.
Despite China-based DeepSeek rocking the super-bullish AI thesis earlier this year, Wall Street still sees Nvidia profiting from the global buildout of AI infrastructure. Aggressive 2025 capital expenditures assumptions by hyperscalers such as Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META) shared during this earnings season underscore the point.
"Over the coming decades, the investment [in artificial intelligence] is happening," Russell Investments chief investment officer Kate El-Hillow told me on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid podcast.
Then the other possible explanation is with EPS estimates not rising, Nvidia's stock price is in wait-and-see mode. While the stock has rallied hard off the February DeepSeek lows, it has still underperformed the S&P 500 (^GSPC) this year. Shares are down from early November 2024 highs.
Given the DeepSeek and China trade war worries, I get it. But I come right back to the impressive structural drivers powering Nvidia's business.
Notes KeyBanc analyst John Vinh, "Nvidia remains uniquely positioned to benefit from AI/ML secular data center growth within the industry. With significant barriers to entry created by its CUDA software stack, we see limited competitive risks and expect Nvidia to continue to dominate one of the fastest-growing workloads in cloud and enterprise."
I suspect seconds after earnings hit on Feb. 26 after the close, this valuation disparity may be more easily explained.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-ridiculous-chart-on-nvidia-ahead-of-earnings-133020976.html
Kyiv (Ukraine): Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed his willingness to step down from office in exchange for Ukraine's membership in NATO.
"If there is peace for Ukraine, if you really need me to leave my post, I am ready. ... I can exchange it for NATO," Zelensky told a press conference in Kyiv, adding he would depart "immediately" if necessary.
Meanwhile, around $350 billion of worth of Ukraine's critical resources are in areas captured by Russia, Ukrainian authorities said Sunday, as Washington pushes for a deal to secure preferential access to the country's resource base.
Zelenskyy also said that he and US president Donald Trump should meet to discuss an accord granting Washington access to Ukrainian natural resources before any meeting between Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
To make an agreement on Ukrainian security concerns, "we need to meet and talk about it. I think that this meeting should be fair, which means before Trump meets Putin," Zelensky said.
They are vital for the production of electronics.
Trump and his aides have expressed frustration at Zelenskyy's unwillingness to sign a deal.
A source in Ukraine told AFP on Saturday the Ukrainian leader was "not ready" to agree to the current US demands.
Kyiv is pushing back against President Donald Trump's calls for Ukraine's resources to be used as compensation to the United States for aid delivered under President Joe Biden.
Rare earth metals are being highlighted by Donald Trump as the trump card for continued support to Ukraine. But if they exist in the Ukrainian mineral-rich soil – and can be extracted – is uncertain. It's not something you do overnight, says expert Alireza Malehmir.
Rare earth metals have come into focus as the USA wants to make a deal with Ukraine, where US President Donald Trump wants compensation for his support to Ukraine.
Ukraine has around five percent of the world's mineral deposits and ranks 40th among the world's mineral-producing countries, according to World mining data from last year. The country tops the world lists when it comes to iron, manganese, titanium, and graphite.
However, a lot of exploration is required to know if the country has extractable finds of the 17 elements classified as rare earth metals, according to Alireza Malehmir, professor of applied geophysics at Uppsala University.
Often, they are found together with other minerals that are then dominant – such as iron.
To be able to say that you have rare earth metals, you must first find the main raw material. Ukraine has that, so there may be potential, says Malehmir.
Highly Uncertain
But if they can be found, how large the finds are and whether they can be extracted is currently highly uncertain. Moreover, peace in the country is required to make the enormous infrastructure investments needed to begin extraction.
For example, in Sweden and globally, from the time you find evidence to the time you start mining – with all environmental considerations, access to water, and qualified personnel – it usually takes five to ten years.
He believes that the USA is primarily interested in critical minerals, such as lithium and titanium, which are already being extracted in Ukraine. They are important for modern technology, just like rare earth metals.
"Some Confusion"
I think there is some confusion, Ukraine has critical minerals but not rare earth metals in that sense. They certainly have lithium and some rare earth metals, but several other countries have that, he says, emphasizing the difference between what is known to exist and what may exist in the ground, says Malehmir.
Trump is said to have demanded rare earth metals worth $500 billion. Alireza Malehmir compares the sum to the $200 billion that the world's largest mining companies are worth – together.
With $500 billion, you could invest a lot. You could take over copper production worldwide.
Rare earth metals are a group of elements, including:
Lanthanum (La), cerium (Ce), praseodymium (Pr), neodymium (Nd), promethium (Pm), samarium (Sm), europium (Eu), gadolinium (Gd), terbium (Tb), dysprosium (Dy), holmium (Ho), erbium (Er), thulium (Tm), ytterbium (Yb), and lutetium (Lu).
Sometimes, scandium (Sc) and yttrium (Y) are also included.
The group is often abbreviated as REE, after the English term rare-earth elements.
Source: Swedish Geological Survey
https://swedenherald.com/article/unclear-if-rare-metals-can-be-extracted
The value of minerals in Ukraineʼs territories temporarily occupied (TOT) by Russia reaches $350 billion. But geological research still needs to be conducted to know the full extent of what Ukraine has.
This was reported by the Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko during the forum "Ukraine. Year 2025".
According to her, Ukraine has significant deposits of lithium, titanium, and uranium. And the aggressor is currently using these resources, including in the fight. For example, for the aviation industry.
In the context of the agreement with the US on rare earth minerals, she emphasized that attracting investment, processing and development of deposits, and not just exports, are important for Ukraine.
"First, there needs to be an agreement on minerals, and then they will decide who will sign it," said the head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak, when asked who will sign the agreement on minerals with the United States.
What kind of agreement on Ukrainian minerals?
The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent brought a pilot draft of a minerals agreement to Ukraine on February 12. Washington had hoped that Kyiv would sign it immediately. President Zelensky said that he had banned the agreement from being signed because it would not protect Ukraine’s interests — it had no connection to investments, profits, or security guarantees.
Previously, Trump had stated that Ukraine had "essentially agreed" to transfer half a trillion dollars worth of rare earth metals to Washington as payment for American military aid.
Ukraine is ready to sign an agreement on rare earth metals, but Kyiv needs security guarantees, and they were not in the agreement. Zelensky added: "The document was clear in only one thing — we must give 50% of everything that is listed there."
After refusing to sign the document, Washington made the agreement even tougher, writes the NYT. Now the US demands 100% of revenues from natural resources, including minerals, gas and oil, as well as revenues from ports and other infrastructure.
The collapse of a food court roof at a shopping mall in northwestern Peru killed six people and left at least 78 others injured, the defense minister said Saturday.
The heavy iron roof at the Real Plaza Trujillo shopping mall, a city in the La Libertad region, fell Friday night on dozens of people who were at the site.
Defense Minister Walter Astudillo said at a news conference that according to the information provided by local firefighters in La Libertad, five people died on site and a sixth at a hospital after the collapse.
Astudillo also said that 30 injured people have already been discharged and 48 remain hospitalized. Three remained in critical condition. The minister expressed his condolences to the victims' families.
Luis Roncal, head of the local fire department, confirmed that they "did not find any signs of life" as they monitored with rescue dogs, but said that the search for survivors would continue with more than 100 firefighters and police officers searching through the debris.
Dozens of families were in the food court of the shopping mall when the roof collapsed, according to local media reports.
The Real Plaza shopping complex in Trujillo, the country's third-largest city, is located about 500 kilometers (310 miles) north of the capital Lima.
"There is a child trapped" under the roof's metal structures, said local government health official Anibal Morillo to broadcaster Panamericana.
Interior Minister Juan Jose Santivanez estimated the collapsed roof area was 700 to 800 square meters.
"We need hydraulic cranes to lift part of the roof that has not yet been removed because it is so heavy and to continue rescue operations for those who may be trapped," the minister told Canal N television channel.
According to the Regional Emergency Operations Center, the collapse occurred at 8:41 p.m. local time but was reported about half an hour later.
Some information in this report is from The Associated Press.
https://www.voanews.com/a/dead-78-injured-after-roof-of-peru-shopping-mall-collapses/7984708.html
By Felicity Bradstock - Feb 22, 2025, 4:00 PM CST
Despite Europe being home to some of the world’s biggest automakers, many of whom have developed several electric vehicle (EV) models, China is quickly becoming the global leader in EV manufacturing. Favourable government policies, easy access to critical minerals and battery technology, and low-cost manufacturing capabilities have spurred the development of a large EV production industry in China, and other parts of the world are struggling to compete. However, some European automakers are working to develop cheaper EVs to appeal to a market that might otherwise turn to China for its cars.
China, which was not well known for its car manufacturing until recently, is suddenly developing some of the world’s most popular EV models. Some established companies, as well as several startups, have grown at an accelerated pace over the last decade as the global demand for EVs has increased and the Chinese government has encouraged production.
The Chinese government began investing in research into EVs as early as 2001 and has since massively increased investment. To tackle air pollution and grow its EV industry, the Chinese government introduced incentives for EV uptake in the 2010s. It then reformed its industrial policy for the EV industry, introducing tax exceptions and subsidies for automakers. This has allowed the country’s EV market to grow rapidly, with several Chinese automakers offering a wide range of low-cost EV models to consumers worldwide. By 2024, the Chinese EV market size was estimated at almost $305.6 billion and it is expected to increase to almost $674.3 billion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 17.15 percent.
Europe’s EV market meanwhile has been growing steadily as consumer demand for cleaner vehicles increases. Many well-known automakers have expanded their portfolios in recent years to offer several EV models. While these manufacturers may be known for their internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, many are finding it difficult to compete with Chinese offerings when it comes to EVs. While China now sells several low-cost EVs, no new European EV models for less than $26,200 were introduced to the market in 2022 or 2023.
The higher costs associated with European EVs are largely due to more expensive manufacturing costs, reliance on China and other countries for critical minerals and batteries, and strict EU regulations. While governments across the region were offering financial incentives for EV uptake in the early days of the technology, many of these schemes have now ended, driving up prices. However, this gradually appears to be changing, with more automakers now offering lower-cost EV models.
The EU introduced stricter carbon emissions targets at the beginning of the year, meaning that automakers that do not comply could face fines. This has resulted in a new wave of low-cost EVs entering the EU market. Consumers now have access to cheaper EV models in Europe, including the Fiat Grande Panda, the Citroën ë-C3, the latest Dacia Spring model and the Renault 5.
Experts believe that automakers may have held back models as they waited for the new regulations to be introduced in the region. Will Roberts, the head of automotive research at the consultancy Rho Motion, explained, “Selling a BEV [battery electric vehicle] for VW in December is basically worthless for them… If you can delay selling that EV to 2025” then it helps to avoid fines.” As new low-cost models flood the market, industry experts expect EV car sales to rise dramatically in 2025, after sales fell by an estimated 1.4 percent across the 18 largest western and northern European markets in 2024.
In October, several European automakers revealed low-cost EVs at the Paris Motor Show, suggesting the region may once again become more competitive with China. Julia Poliscanova, the senior director for vehicles and e-mobility supply chains at the Transport and Environment campaign group, said, “It feels like Europe is fighting back… There are so many new models on show, and what is really great is that there are a lot of launches that are more affordable. So, Citroen, Peugeot [and] Renault, they are all showing some smaller affordable models.” Poliscanova added, “This is exactly what we need for the mass market, for people to buy those vehicles more, and this is also where the competition from the Chinese is also the hardest.”
This month, Volkswagen teased a $20,500 entry-level EV that it plans to launch within the next few years. It is expected to be named ID.1 and replace the company’s Up hatchback. VW is expected to unveil the car in March, with the commercial launch provisionally set for 2027, in Europe only. Low-cost EVs are a core part of VW’s future plans, which include the ID.2 and the newly announced model. As the demand for affordable EVs increases, Volkswagen hopes these models will boost the company's profitability.
By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com
Market leaders quickly becoming laggards — that's what investors have witnessed lately, provided one looks underneath the surface of the daily market action.
Some pros warn it could be sending a near-term negative sign for the broader market, which is dealing with new concerns ranging from tariffs to the possibility of no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
Many of the best-performing stocks in the market meaningfully declined last week, 22V Research strategist Jeff Jacobson pointed out in a client note on Monday. It's not just that many of the leaders stopped going up or outperforming, Jacobson said. In several instances, stocks that had broken out to the upside on earnings ended last week below where they trended before results were disclosed.
Two examples based on Jacobson's work include Robinhood (HOOD) and DraftKings (DKNG) — the former has lost 16% in the past five sessions while the latter has shed 25%.
Other leaders under pressure include JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Palantir (PLTR). All three stocks have underperformed the S&P 500's (^GSPC) modest gain in the past five sessions. Palantir has lost the most, with a 22% plunge amid heightened worries about insider stock selling.
Interestingly, after a stunning 20-day run of gains, Meta (META) saw its worst week since July, with a drop of 7.2%. The stock fell every day last week and continued to slide today.
Jacobson said the action is an "incredible reversal of fortune."
"If the largest, best performing, names have lost their market leadership for now, it may be hard for the indices to make new meaningful highs in the short-term," Jacobson wrote.
He added, "In addition, continued weakness in the very names that had lifted the market to new highs could result in some further short-term pain on the index level."
"This negative price action also comes at a seasonally weak period for the market and ahead of several potentially key catalysts," including Nvidia earnings, the February jobs report, key inflation reports, and a Fed policy decision, Jacobson wrote. "The market will also have to deal with a potential government shutdown deadline on 3/14 and the looming tariff deadlines on products from Canada and Mexico that were pushed back from early Feb to March."
The real leaders of the bull market also continue to perform weakly.
The "Magnificent Seven" trade of Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Google (GOOG), Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA) has been a mixed bag in 2025.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/theres-an-ugly-trend-developing-in-the-stock-market-173015701.html
The two leaders discussed at length the recent developments in Russia-U.S. relations, a sign that such talks will not impact China and Russia’s close partnership.
On February 24, China’s President Xi Jinping held a phone conversation with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in which the two men emphasized that no external force can drive a wedge between their two countries.
According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry readout, Xi told Putin: “History and reality make it clear to us that China and Russia are good neighbors that cannot be moved apart, as well as true friends that share hardships, support each other, and pursue common development.” He later emphasized that the China-Russia relationship “has a strong internal driving force and unique strategic value. It is neither targeted at any third party nor affected by any third party.”
Putin agreed. A statement from the Kremlin quoted him as saying: “Russian-Chinese political ties are an essential stabilizing factor in global affairs. This relationship is strategic in nature, not subject to political bias, and not aimed against anyone.”
The message was clear: the recent resumption of dialogue between the United States and Russia will not impact China-Russia ties. Some Trump administration figures had argued that their efforts to normalize ties with Russia – including seeking an end to the Russia-Ukraine War on terms extremely favorable to Moscow – could drive a wedge between Beijing and Moscow.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, after talks with Russia in Riyadh earlier this month, spoke of “incredible opportunities” to partner with Russia, which he said “hopefully will be good for the world and also improve our relations in the long term.”
Most analysts believe the prospect of a “reverse Kissinger” is vanishingly unlikely; the latest Putin-Xi call should put to rest any such hopes.
(However, China may be trying to obscure the strength of this message to foreign audiences. Notably, in the Foreign Ministry’s official English translation of its readout, the line that China and Russia “cannot be moved apart” was removed.)
The call reportedly lasted over an hour and a half, a length all the more notable because Xi and Putin last spoke just over a month ago, on January 21. The frequency and length of their conversations itself is evidence that Moscow is taking pains to keep Beijing informed of new developments so as to avoid any disruptions to the China-Russia relationship.
The subject of Russia-U.S. relations was explicitly discussed during the latest call. “Putin informed his counterpart about the recent Russian-American contacts,” the Kremlin statement said. “The President of China expressed his support for the dialogue initiated between Russia and the United States, as well as China’s readiness to help find ways to settle the Ukrainian conflict peacefully.”
China’s own readout quoted Xi as saying that “China welcomes positive efforts made by Russia and relevant parties to resolve the crisis.”
China and Russia will be holding a number of exchanges this year. Not only is China hosting the Shanghai Cooperation Organization’s annual meeting – which will see Putin visit China – but both countries are planning to host events celebrating the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. China and Russia will use such commemorations to highlight their relationship and to boost their global standing by leveraging the 1945 victory in the “World Anti-Fascist War.”
China and Russia should take advantage of the anniversary to “jointly safeguard… the fruits of victory in World War II… and to call on all countries to observe the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter, uphold universally recognized basic norms of international relations, and follow true multilateralism,” Xi said.
With that in mind, China’s leader expects China-Russia relations to reach “new heights” in 2025.
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu.
It is a sea of red in Asia as investors grapple with risk posed by the U.S. intensifying its technology war with China in areas as varied as artificial intelligence, quantum computing and aerospace.
The U.S. also is seeking to toughen restrictions on the export of semiconductor technology to China - particularly chips from artificial intelligence leader Nvidia - with the help of allies, Bloomberg reported.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index initially fell as much as 2.7%, dragged down by an almost 8% plunge in tech giant Alibaba following a 10% drop in its American Depository Receipts. The sell-off abated, though, as investors chose to buy the dip given that stock's recent world-beating rally.
The Hang Seng was last down 0.6% as Hong Kong-listed tech companies recouped early loss with more talk of demand for low-cost AI models from DeepSeek.
On Wall Street, investors continue to question whether massive spending on AI is justified, as evident in the cautious mood ahead of Nvidia's earnings on Wednesday where analysts expect a whopping 72% increase in quarterly revenue.
Gold is benefiting from the U.S. presidency of Donald Trump who was busy with Russia advocating a quick end to war in the Ukraine while dialling up tariff rhetoric against Canada and Mexico. The old-world asset set a record overnight, drawing tantalisingly close to $3,000 an ounce.
Curbing risk appetite is a series of soft U.S. economic data including retail sales, consumer confidence and surveys on the manufacturing and services sectors. They all came in weak and pointed to intensifying price pressure, eroding confidence in the exceptionalism of the U.S. economy.
Market participants have now fully priced in the prospect of the Federal Reserve lowering its policy interest rate by 50 basis points this year rather than 40 bps seen just last week.
Treasury yields duly touched fresh lows in the Asian trading session. Benchmark Treasury yields hit a two-month low of 4.377% while two-year yields touched 4.156%, the lowest since early December.
Next up will be the Conference Board's U.S. Consumer Confidence survey where analysts are wary of a repeat of the slump seen in the University of Michigan's equivalent poll.
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin speak later in the day with central bank watchers expecting them to echo the message that the Fed will be cautious in cutting rates.
European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel is also set to speak in London about the future of the central bank balance sheet.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/sea-red-us-china-tech-054529318.html
Part of Putin's proposal could see Russia working with the US on aluminium production and supply from Russia [Getty Images]
Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is open to offering the US access to rare minerals, including from Russian-occupied Ukraine.
This comes after US President Donald Trump has repeatedly pushed for Ukraine to give up some of its minerals in exchange for support, in a deal which is currently being finalised, according to a Ukrainian minister.
In a state TV interview on Monday, Putin said he was ready to "offer" resources to American partners in joint projects, including mining in Russia's "new territories" - a reference to parts of eastern Ukraine that Russia has occupied since launching a full-scale invasion three years ago.
The proposal could also see the two countries collaborating on aluminium extraction and supply to the US to stabilise prices, he added.
In his televised interview, Putin countered Trump's push to access Ukraine's mineral deposits, saying they were ready to work with "foreign partners" including companies on mining minerals.
Ukraine has been facing growing pressure from the Trump administration to sign the deal, which has ended up in the centre of the growing rift between the US and Ukrainian presidents.
Ukraine's deputy prime minister for European and Euro-Atlantic integration, Olga Stefanishyna, posted on X on Monday that negotiations on a deal allowing US access to Ukrainian mineral deposits, "have been very constructive, with nearly all key details finalised".
Similarly - albeit in a different approach to the US - the European Union has also proposed a partnership with Ukraine that would give it access to minerals in what the the European Commissioner for industrial strategy, Stéphane Séjourné, called a "win-win".
Kyiv estimates that about 5% of the world's critical raw materials are in Ukraine. However, some of the mineral deposits have been seized by Russia in the three years since its invasion of Ukraine.
Putin said a potential US-Ukraine deal on rare minerals was not a concern and that Russia "undoubtedly have, I want to emphasise, significantly more resources of this kind than Ukraine".
"As for the new territories, it's the same. We are ready to attract foreign partners to the so-called new, to our historical territories, which have returned to the Russian Federation," he added.
He also suggested that Russia and the US could collaborate on aluminium production in Krasnoyarsk, in Siberia, where one Russian aluminium maker, Rusal, has its largest smelters.
Putin's televised comments followed a cabinet meeting on Russia's natural resources.
On Tuesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists the proposal opened up "quite broad prospects", adding that the US needed rare earth minerals and Russia had "a lot of them".
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/putin-offers-russian-ukrainian-rare-104156436.html
FILE PHOTO: Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov attends Russian President Vladimir Putin's annual televised year-end press conference and phone-in held in Moscow, Russia December 19, 2024. Sputnik/Gavriil Grigorov/Pool/File Photo Image: Reuters/Gavriil Grigorov
The Kremlin said on Tuesday that Russia had lots of rare earth metal deposits and that it was open to doing deals to develop them after President Vladimir Putin held out the possibility of such collaboration with the United States.
"The Americans need rare earth metals. We have a lot of them," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
"We have our own plans to develop strategic resources, but there are quite broad prospects for cooperation here," he told reporters.
Putin told state TV on Monday that Russia was open to joint projects with American partners - including government and the private sector - under a future Russia-U.S. economic deal.
U.S. President Donald Trump has pledged that "major economic development transactions with Russia" would take place.
Peskov said there was still a lot of work to be done to normalize relations between Moscow and Washington before any economic deals could be struck.
"Next on the agenda is the issue of resolving the Ukrainian crisis", said Peskov. "And then, especially since the Americans themselves have also spoken about it, it will be time to consider possible projects related to trade, economic and investment cooperation."
"When there comes, let's say, a moment of political will, we will be open to this (cooperation on rare earth metals)," Peskov added.
Rare earths are a group of 17 metals used to make magnets that turn power into motion for electric vehicles, cell phones, missile systems, and other electronics.
Russia has the world's fifth-largest reserves of rare earth metals, according to the U.S. Geological Survey data, after China, Brazil, India and Australia.
The U.S. and Ukraine are negotiating a separate deal involving rare earth metals. Trump said this week that deal was "pretty close" to conclusion. Putin on Monday said those negotiations were not a concern for Russia.
© Thomson Reuters 2025.
(Reuters) – OPEC and its allies face a tricky dilemma: should they start loosening oil production caps even though the crude supply and demand picture is unlikely to improve in the near future? They may well opt to again delay the crucial moment to keep prices steady, but they increasingly risk losing control of the market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other major producers including Russia, an alliance known as OPEC+, is scheduled to gradually start unwinding years of deep production curbs in April.
The group is holding back a total of 5.85 million barrels per day of output, or about 5.7% of global demand, following a series of cuts made since 2022 to prop up the market.
The rollback of 2.2 million bpd of these cuts, announced in November 2023, for the first quarter of 2024, has since been delayed five times due to persistently weak oil demand and continued growth in global crude output.
Unfortunately for OPEC, the market backdrop is unlikely to improve markedly by April.
In fact, it may get worse as increasingly fractious trade relations between the United States and other major economies weigh on oil demand growth.
U.S. President Donald Trump has been urging OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia to bring down the price of oil. And Trump’s conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin and subsequent bilateral U.S.-Russia talks in Saudi Arabia have raised speculation about the possibility of a ceasefire in Ukraine and easing of U.S. sanctions on Moscow’s vast oil production.
https://energynow.com/2025/02/opecrrisks-losing-control-with-more-output-delays/
BP will abandon its pledge to increase renewable energy generation by 2030 when it presents its strategy to investors on Wednesday.
CEO Murray Auchincloss will rescind the firm’s aim to boost renewable output 20-fold between 2019 and 2030 to 50 gigawatts, according to Reuters.
BP will also abandon a target to reach core earnings of $49 billion (€46.7bn) this year, said Reuters’ sources, a proposal that was previously suggested in a call with analysts.
Instead, the firm will set an annual percentage growth target.
BP failed to meet its core earnings goal of $40.9bn (€39.1bn) for 2024.
Cutting low-carbon investments
At an investor day in London on Wednesday, BP will also share plans to divest assets and cut other low-carbon investments to reduce debt and boost returns.
After the departure of CEO Bernard Looney in late 2023, BP shares slumped last year as the firm failed to win back investor confidence.
Looney, who had led BP since 2020, was sacked for having past relationships with colleagues and not being “fully transparent” about them.
BP profits fell to $8.9bn (€8.5bn) in 2024, from $14bn (€13.3bn) in 2023.
Targets to reduce oil and gas
This isn’t, however, the first time that BP has walked back sustainability pledges.
In 2020, the firm aimed for a 40% reduction in oil and gas output by 2030.
This was changed to a 25% reduction in 2023 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s energy crisis.
Now the firm is expected to officially abandon the target on Wednesday.
It’s possible that BP will even increase output, following the example of ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell.
Elliot Management
The investor meeting also arrives as activist investor Elliott Management is building up a significant stake in BP, currently worth nearly 5%.
It’s not exactly clear what the hedge fund would like BP to do but some analysts expect major demands.
These could include a potential breakup of the company and tighter cost discipline.
Elliot has already pushed for major changes at companies such as Honeywell and Southwest Airlines.
One source told Reuters that Elliot wants BP to scale down green energy spending and sell wind and solar assets.
Since taking office, Auchincloss has slowed investments in renewables and announced plans to cut costs and reduce staff by 5%.
The investor day was organised before BP was made aware of Elliot’s stake, although the disclosure now increases pressure on the oil and gas firm.
Euronews has contacted BP for further comment.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-expected-scrap-renewables-targets-115454339.html
MOSCOW. Feb 26 (Interfax) - Shareholders of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) are ready to support repairs to the system that was damaged as a result of a UAV attack as quickly as possible.
The CPC press office said that at a CPC shareholders meeting in Abu Dhabi on February 25-26, representatives of the Russian shareholder, Transneft , expressed serious concern over the terrorist act and said such attacks on CPC facilities protected by international law were unacceptable.
CPC General Director Nikolai Gorban reported on the damages to the pump station, current condition of the equipment, status of work to dismantle the damaged equipment and mobilization of contractors. "The consortium's shareholders expressed readiness to support on any matters related to repairs that would, as expected, take about two months," the press office said.
A number of drones filled with explosives and metal pellets attacked the CPC's Kropotkin pumping station on February 17. Equipment was damaged - some of it was supplied by Siemens, which is difficult to replace due to sanctions.
Transneft said that Kazakh oil pumping through the CPC system might be reduced by approximately 30% because of the pumping station repairs, and it would take up to two months to fix the damage. There are no restrictions on the flow of Kazakh oil into the CPC system, the Kazakh Energy Ministry said on February 18. Tengizchevroil, operator of the Tengiz field, said it continues uninterrupted supply of oil through the CPC.
The 1,511 km CPC pipeline connects oil fields in western Kazakhstan and Russian fields on the Caspian shelf with the marine terminal in Novorossiysk. The system is the main export route for Kazakh oil, accounting for more than 80% of Kazakhstan's volumes pumped through the pipeline. Currently, CPC is capable of transporting approximately 72.5 million tonnes of oil per year from Kazakhstan's territory and up to 83 million tonnes via Russia. The CPC exported 63.01 million tonnes of oil, 55 million tonnes of it from Kazakhstan, in 2024.
CPC's shareholders are the Russian Federation with 31%, with Transneft managing 24% and 7% on the balance sheet; KazMunayGas with 19%; Kazakhstan Pipeline Ventures LLC with 1.75%; Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium Company with 15%; Lukoil International GmbH with 12.5%; Mobil Caspian Pipeline Company with 7.5%; Rosneft-Shell Caspian Ventures Limited with 7.5%; BG Overseas Holding Limited at 2%; Eni International N.A. N.V. S.ar.l. with 2%; and Oryx Caspian Pipeline LLC with 1.75%.
The curious calm that has settled over global markets belies the fact that global politics are in a state of chaos. First there is America's U-turn on its Ukraine policy, followed by the threat of a trade war between Washington and nearly all its trading partners, and the prospect - perhaps - of the US slashing its budget deficit. Yet the only big movement in financial prices has been in the price of gold. That may be because we are at a "wait and see" moment. Global wealth managers are like rabbits transfixed in the headlights of a car, fearing that they might jump in the wrong direction. This calm won't last. I fear there will be a Trump crash , and investors should prepare by spreading their risks. - Financial Mail on Sunday
BP faces a critical moment in its 116-year history. The oil major's boss, Murray Auchincloss, is due to meet investors this week in what is expected to be a make-or-break meeting with investors. It will come after a five-year stretch that has seen the company's share price fall by 1%. The meeting will decide his own future and that of BP. Elliott Investment Management is expected to push for drastic changes, including a limit on spending on renewables and the sale of a big chunk of BP's green assets. - The Financial Mail on Sunday
Rolls Royce is expected to confirm how big its first dividend in five years will be when it posts results on Thursday. Having paced gains on London's top-flight index throughout 2023 and 2024, the engineer is seen reporting £2.3bn in profit and cash flow of £2.6bn. Yet its chief executive officer is also seen stressing that much is still left to do. - Financial Mail on Sunday
Bybit, the cryptocurrency exchange, is asking the "brightest minds" in cybersecurity to help it to retrieve £1.2bn stolen by hackers - in what may be the biggest digital robbery ever. According to the Dubai-based platform, the thieves gained control of a wallet of Ethereum and then transferred the assets to a hidden address. Bybit's boss however has reassured that all those affected would be reimbursed regardless of whether the stolen currency was returned. - Guardian
Kremlin officials are dangling the prospect of lucrative investment deals for American energy companies, apparently seeking to convince President Trump that large economic gains could come from siding with Moscow in ending the war in Ukraine and scrapping economic sanctions on Russia.
There is no doubt that Russia has vast troves of oil and natural gas, but an effort to lure American or other Western energy companies to undertake Russian projects is likely to encounter skepticism, not least because of the companies' recent history in Russia.
Nevertheless, Kirill Dmitriev, a Kremlin financial official, expressed optimism last week about the prospect, pitching the potential for investment opportunities by Western companies, including oil producers.
Energy companies would need to weigh access to troves of oil and natural gas against potential pitfalls, including reputational damage from taking part in an industry that has financially sustained a government waging war against its neighbor.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/23/business/russia-sanctions-oil-gas-energy.html
Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Donald Trump. Photo: DW
A new draft US minerals agreement provides for the distribution of revenues from resources in the liberated territories of Ukraine.
This was reported by The New York Times, citing a new version of the document.
It is noted that 66% of mineral revenues in the de-occupied territories will be allocated to a special fund. In which the United States will receive a 100 per cent financial stake. Ukraine will have to contribute to this fund until its volume reaches $500 billion.
According to the newspaper, Washington is offering Ukraine to give up half of its revenues from mineral, gas and oil production, as well as part of the profits from ports and other infrastructure. These conditions were also contained in the previous version of the agreement of 14 February.
In addition, the updated draft states that the United States may reinvest part of the revenues in the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, in particular by investing in the development of the country's subsoil and infrastructure.
As reported earlier, the administration of US President Donald Trump sent Ukraine an updated version of the mining agreement, which takes into account some of Kyiv's comments.
Earlier, Donald Trump said that he would like to conclude a deal under which Ukraine would supply the US with rare earth minerals needed for electronics production in exchange for US aid.
However, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz criticised Donald Trump's proposal to provide Ukraine with military assistance in exchange for its minerals.
Subsequently, US President Donald Trump said that Ukraine had agreed to provide Washington with access to rare earth minerals worth $500 billion.
It should be noted, however, that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy refused to sign the agreement on granting the US access to rare earth minerals. The White House called this decision «short-sighted».
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that the US might consider investing in mining on the Black Sea shelf, which is currently under Russian occupation.
However, Donald Trump later stated that he intended to renew the agreement with Ukraine on rare earth minerals.
US National Security Adviser Mike Volz called on Kyiv «to tone it down» and sign the mining agreement, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had previously rejected.
https://nikvesti.com/en/news/politics/301724-new-minerals-agreement-revenues-liberation-nyt
Hedge funds are turning less optimistic on crude oil’s prospects, trimming net-bullish bets in a further sign of market softening.
Net-long positions for US marker West Texas Intermediate fell for a fourth week to the lowest since October. The corresponding measure for global benchmark Brent was dialed back by the most since December in a third consecutive drop.
The moves were driven both by a decline in long-only positions, as well as a build in short-only ones, according to data from ICE Futures Europe and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Oil has sold off in recent weeks amid a host of drivers, with traders concerned that US tariffs and talks on the war in Ukraine could impact market dynamics. In addition, Iraqi exports from its semi-autonomous Kurdistan region may resume, although cartel OPEC+ may defer planned output hikes. WTI capped five weeks of losses last Friday, the longest losing streak since late 2023.
“The latest positioning data reflects the more recent negative sentiment,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV, citing trade and tariff concerns, along with the push for a deal between Russia and Ukraine.
Meanwhile, aggregate open interest in US crude — the number of contracts outstanding — has also declined, and remains near the lowest in around three months even after a small uptick. Investors have been pulling out of oil as US President Donald Trump’s deluge of executive actions disorientated traders.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
Most stock markets in the Gulf ended lower on Monday as oil giant Saudi Aramco weighed on the Saudi index, while the Dubai bourse extended losses on profit-taking.
Saudi Arabia’s benchmark index dropped 0.6%, pulled lower by a 1.8% fall in Saudi Aramco.
Aramco is forecast to have no performance-linked dividend this year after a more balanced 2024 cash cycle following earlier bumper results that backed the special payout, JPMorgan said in a research note on Friday.
The oil behemoth is slated to report its 2024 results on March 4.
On the other hand, ACWA Power Company was up 2.3%, on track to extend gains from the previous session.
ACWA to buy $693 million stakes in Kuwait and Bahrain assets from ENGIE, covering operating capacities of 4.61 GW gas-fired power generation and 1.11 million cubic meters per day (m3/day) water desalination facilities.
Dubai’s main share index lost 0.5%, extending losses for a second session, with blue-chip developer Emaar Properties declining 1.8%.
Elsewhere, district cooling services provider Empower gave up early gains to close 2.9% lower.
Empower and Dubai Multi Commodities Centre signed an agreement to supply the next phase of Uptown Dubai with sustainable district cooling services.
These movements may represent a healthy correction before the market resumes its upward trajectory, supported by recent positive results and strong growth projections for the year, said Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Principal at Tickmill.
However, construction and engineering company Drake & Scull International advanced 1.8%, after winning contracts worth over 1 billion dirhams ($272.28 million) for the Arabian Hills project.
In Abu Dhabi, the index eased 0.2%.
The Qatari index added 0.2%, helped by a 1.2% rise in Qatar Islamic Bank.
Meanwhile, Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said on Sunday that six venture capital firms the investment authority has invested in as part of its “fund of funds” programme will open offices or regional headquarters in Qatar.
Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index closed 0.3% lower, hit by a 2.3% fall in EFG Holding Company.
https://www.brecorder.com/news/40349785/aramco-weighs-on-saudi-bourse-profit-taking-hits-dubai
By Alex Kimani - Feb 24, 2025, 12:30 PM CST
The United States has imposed sanctions on more than 30 people and vessels for selling and transporting Iranian petroleum-related products as part of the country’s"shadow fleet," the Treasury Department has announced. The latest sanctions target tanker operators and managers in India and China; oil brokers in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong and the head of Iran's National Iranian Oil Company.
Two weeks ago, President Donald Trump’s first sanctions against Iran targeted 3 vessels carrying Iranian crude to China. The sanctions affected one very-large crude carrier (VLCC) and two Aframaxes that the Treasury Department said helped move Iranian oil to China. They also targeted several entities and individuals across different countries involved in the trade, on behalf of Tehran’s Armed Forces General Staff and its sanctioned front company, Sepehr Energy Jahan Nama Pars.
Last year, Trump pledged in his Republican National Convention speech to reduce Iranian oil exports. He said he had previously achieved this objective by linking it to trade; “I told China and other countries, if you buy from Iran, we will not let you do any business in this country and we will put tariffs on every product you do send in of 100% or more.” According to StanChart, Iranian oil is likely to play a key role in Trump’s wider China trade policy agenda.
"A Trump victory may see the United States enforce sanctions against Iran, thereby reducing Iranian oil exports and prompting oil prices higher," Vivek Dhar, a commodities strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said in a note.
China has been importing Iranian oil indirectly via proxies. According to multiple media sources, the transfers involve a dark fleet consisting of a group of aging tankers that rarely have an identifiable insurer. These transfers can be hazardous, including the danger of spills and collisions, with so many low-quality tankers massed in a narrow trade route with their transponders off. For instance, two such vessels caught fire off Singapore after a collision in July 2024.
By Charles Kennedy - Feb 24, 2025, 11:00 AM CST
Iraq remains fully committed to its pledges in the OPEC+ agreement as the restart of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan appears imminent.
“The Iraqi oil ministry affirms its full commitment to the OPEC+ agreement,” the ministry said in a press release cited by news agency Rudaw.
Iraq produced 3.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil in January, which reflects “Iraq's commitment to the agreed production levels,” according to the statement from the oil ministry.
Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia, has pledged to keep its oil output capped at 4 million bpd, but it has to cut some more over the next months as it had exceeded its quota for most of the previous months.
Iraq has been the biggest overproducer in the OPEC+ alliance, with non-OPEC+’s Russia and Kazakhstan also exceeding their targets in the past years. All three OPEC+ producers have pledged to compensate for previous overproduction with deeper cuts.
Iraq remains committed to its OPEC+ pledges and the group’s “voluntary reduction agreements and the required compensation amounts,” the Iraqi oil ministry said today.
Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayyan Abdul Ghani said on Monday that he hopes exports from Kurdistan could resume in two days, as soon as Iraq receives Turkish approval to ship the crude from the Kurdistan fields via a pipeline to the Turkish port of Ceyhan on the Mediterranean.
Last week, the minister said that Iraq and Kurdistan expect to complete all work to resume oil exports from the semi-autonomous Iraqi region by the end of March, following a two-year hiatus due to a dispute over authority over crude flows.
Oil exports from Kurdistan have now been halted for nearly two years, after they were shut in since March 2023 due to a dispute over who should authorize the Kurdish exports.
The resumption of Kurdistan’s exports would add about 400,000 bpd to oil supply, although it is not clear yet how much of this would be allocated to international markets and how much would be kept for domestic consumption in Iraq.
BRUSSELS - Hungary wants to remove eight individuals from the European Union's Russia sanctions list and receive fresh guarantees on Ukraine gas transit talks before agreeing to renew the restrictions, EU diplomats said.
EU sanctions on Russia - imposed over Moscow's war against Ukraine - must be renewed every six months by a unanimous vote and Budapest has often used these renewals as bargaining opportunities.
On Monday, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto wrote on Facebook that Budapest would "not consent to rushing ahead" with the sanctions extension on individuals.
The Russia sanctions consist of two frameworks, which come up for renewal at different times. One covers economic measures and the other is a list of over 2,400 individuals and entities that are subject to asset freezes and travel bans.
The diplomats declined to share the names of the individuals that Hungary wants to remove, due to the confidential nature of the discussions.
Hungary's permanent representation to the EU had no comment.
In January, Budapest, which has maintained close ties with Moscow through the war, held up the renewal of the economic sanctions that include the immobilisation of Moscow's central bank assets. An agreement was reached after the European Commission agreed to include Hungary in talks about resuming gas transit to the EU through Ukraine.
Russian gas flows via Ukraine were halted on January 1 when Ukraine's transit contract with Russia's state gas firm Gazprom expired.
Szijjarto told reporters on Monday that the Commission had not implemented its earlier commitment after Budapest was not included in a meeting with Slovakia and Ukraine.
The Commission said it planned to include Hungary in the discussions.
"This meeting had been planned in this format. The Commission remains ready to associate Hungary to discuss the alternative supply sources and routes to Europe," a Commission spokesperson said. REUTERS
The proposed 10 per cent United States tariff on oil imports could cost foreign producers $10 billion yearly and disrupt global trade flows, a report by Goldman Sachs has said.
The policy, which targets crude imports from Canada, Mexico and Venezuela, is expected to reshape supply chains, force price discounts and create economic ripples across energy markets.
The investment bank also estimates that U.S. consumers could face an annual $22 billion cost burden, with refiners and traders potentially benefiting $12 billion as they take advantage of price discounts.
Meanwhile, the U.S. government stands to generate $20 billion in revenue from the levies.
The tariff plan, expected to take effect in March, marks a shift in U.S. trade policy under President Donald Trump’s administration.
It follows recent retaliatory tariffs from China on American energy imports, adding further tension to global energy markets.
One major impact of the tariff would be on Canada’s oil sector, as the country exports about 3.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude to the U.S. While pipeline flows are expected to continue, Canadian producers would likely be forced to offer price discounts to remain competitive, given their limited access to alternative markets.
Similarly, 1.2 million bpd of seaborne heavy crude imports from Latin American producers, including Mexico and Venezuela, would require discounts to offset the tariff, ensuring continued U.S. demand.
Despite the levies, Goldman Sachs notes that U.S. refiners will remain dependent on foreign heavy crude, as their advanced processing capabilities and low costs make them the most competitive buyers. However, the tariff could make Middle Eastern medium crudes more attractive to Asian refiners, as they look to avoid the U.S. market turmoil.
Nigeria could also feel the effects of the tariff policy. As of February 2024, the Dangote Refinery, which has struggled to secure local crude—was importing about 2 million barrels from the U.S. The refinery resumed U.S. crude imports in November due to domestic supply challenges.
With some Nigerian companies also importing petroleum products from the U.S., the tariff could have implications for Nigerian consumers, possibly leading to increased costs or supply disruptions.
Additionally, any price volatility in global crude markets could impact Nigeria’s revenue projections, given the country’s dependence on oil exports.
While the tariff is expected to hurt foreign producers, refiners and traders could see major benefits. Goldman Sachs projects that linking discounted U.S. light crude and foreign heavy crude to premium coastal markets could create $12 billion in gains for traders.
However, Goldman warns that for Middle Eastern producers to capture a greater share of the Asian market, light oil prices would need to rise by 50 cents per barrel to make medium crudes from the Middle East more attractive to refiners in Asia.
https://guardian.ng/energy/u-s-oil-tariff-may-disrupt-market-cost-producers-10b/
According to Wood Mackenzie's forecast, the average Brent crude price in 2025 will be $73/barrel, influenced by complex geopolitical and economic factors, including the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Iran.
Wood Mackenzie has announced that the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach $73 per barrel in 2025. This forecast considers major geopolitical and economic factors, such as potential peace talks between Russia and the United States regarding the Ukraine conflict, as well as ongoing international sanctions against Iran and trade tariffs. These elements significantly influence global supply and demand dynamics in the oil market.
Wood Mackenzie’s analysis estimates that global oil demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, while non-OPEC production is expected to grow by 1.5 million b/d. This supply growth exceeding demand creates challenges for OPEC+ (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and 10 non-OPEC countries), which will need to manage market balance to maintain stability.
Supply and demand dynamics in 2025
Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie, explained that strong production outside OPEC poses a challenge for the organisation, particularly in maintaining market equilibrium. Brent prices are expected to decline throughout the year, from $77/barrel in the first quarter to $70/barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025, reflecting OPEC+’s delicate management of supply.
The projection assumes that OPEC+ will continue its current plan to ease production cuts by 2.2 million b/d between April 2025 and September 2026, depending on market conditions. Regional demand is expected to be driven by the Asia-Pacific region, with China and India leading the growth. Non-OECD countries are forecasted to see an increase of 1.2 million b/d, while OECD countries are expected to experience a slight contraction.
Geopolitical uncertainties and risks
Wood Mackenzie’s forecasts also account for major uncertainties, such as the potential lifting of US sanctions against Russia, the impact of trade tariffs on global GDP growth, and the effects of sanctions on Iran’s oil production. Additionally, the global industrial recovery could support oil demand, although at a limited level compared to pre-pandemic levels.
https://energynews.pro/en/wood-mackenzie-forecasts-brent-crude-to-average-73-barrel-in-2025/
Iraq has taken a big step in reviving its oil and gas production by signing an agreement with BP to develop four fields in Kirkuk.
This deal aims to increase production capacity.
The agreement, which still requires final approval from the Iraqi government, will see BP invest up to $25 billion over the life of the project, according to Reuters.
The company will work alongside North Oil Co. (NOC), North Gas Co. (NGC), and a new operator to stabilize and boost crude output.
BP’s plan includes:
- Drilling new wells
- Rehabilitating existing infrastructure
- Expanding gas production to meet Iraq’s energy needs
The goal is to increase crude output by 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), bringing total production from the four fields to at least 450,000 bpd within two to three years. BP’s earnings from the project will depend on increased production, price, and operational costs, allowing it to book a share of the output.
This move aligns with BP’s shift back to oil and gas investments, as the company prepares to scale down its renewable energy spending. The timing is notable, coming just before BP presents its new strategy to investors.
Kirkuk is a historic oil hub—BP was part of the original consortium that discovered its oil reserves in the 1920s. Today, the company estimates that Kirkuk holds 9 billion barrels of recoverable crude.
Beyond Kirkuk, BP also plays a key role in Iraq’s oil sector, holding a 50% stake in the Rumaila oil field, one of the world’s largest, where it has been operating for a century.
This deal represents a major push to boost Iraq’s energy production, ensuring both domestic supply and export growth.
https://www.americanmudpumps.com/post/iraq-signs-major-oil-development-deal
BP has abandoned its green ambitions in favour of ramping up fossil fuel production as its boss claimed that optimism over the pace of the green transition had been “misplaced”.
In a major strategy shift, the energy company will increase its investment in oil and gas to $10bn (£7.9bn) a year while slashing more than $5bn from its previous green investment plan.
The radical overhaul means BP will be “very selective” about investing in low-carbon options while producing 2.4m barrels of oil and gas a day by 2030 – about 60% higher than the figure in its net zero plan set out five years ago.
“Today we have fundamentally reset BP’s strategy,” said BP’s CEO, Murray Auchincloss. “This is a reset BP, with an unwavering focus on growing long-term shareholder value.”
The move back towards fossil fuels represents a stark shift from the investment plan put forward five years ago by the former chief executive, Bernard Looney. He had promised to shrink the company’s fossil fuel production to about 1.5m barrels a day and make BP a net zero energy company by 2050.
Auchincloss said BP would instead focus on strengthening its production portfolio by starting up 10 large-scale oil and gas projects by 2027 and a further eight to 10 projects by the end of the decade.
He said: “Our optimism for a fast [energy] transition was misplaced, and we went too far, too fast.”
There has been growing pressure from investors for BP to shrug off its green pledges, which initially won praise from green groups but have since been diluted as BP’s share price fell.
BP has lost almost a quarter of its market value in the past two years while the market value of its rivals Shell and ExxonMobil has increased as they pursued greater oil and gas production.
The company also faces an existential threat from the activist hedge fund Elliott Management, which in recent months has amassed a stake in the oil company worth almost £3.8bn, or 5% of its shares.
The New York hedge fund is widely expected to use its grip on the 120-year-old company to demand sweeping changes, including a potential breakup, to rescue its flagging market value.
The dismantling of Looney’s green agenda will come alongside a plan to cut BP’s growing debt pile from almost $23bn at the end of last year to between $14bn and $18bn by the end of 2027.
The company plans to sell $20bn of assets, possibly including its Castrol lubricants business, its network of service stations and the solar power developer Lightsource BP, while trimming up to $3bn from its overall investments and cutting up to $5bn in costs from across the company by the end of 2027.
Matilda Borgström, a campaigner at the climate action group 350.org, said: “This move by oil giant BP clearly demonstrates why super-rich corporations and individuals, chasing short-term profit for themselves and shareholders, cannot be trusted with fixing the climate crisis or leading the transition to renewable energy we so badly need.
“Pumping money into more oil and gas increases the risk of climate impacts for us all, flies in the face of legal climate targets and, with the renewables sector growing exponentially, is a big risk to the shareholders that BP is so keen to please.”
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/feb/26/bp-oil-and-gas-spending-green-energy-scale-back
However, a softening of Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) for Indian public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) during the first nine months of FY25 to an average of $4.8 per barrel compared to $11.75 a barrel in FY24 and $17 in FY23. This was mainly due to a decline in discounts available on sourcing of Russian crude oil - CareEdge Ratings
New Delhi: Crude oil prices are expected to remain range bound at an average of $75-$80 a barrel over the next 6 months, essentially on the back of higher overall global crude oil production aided by increase in crude oil production by the US, while demand growth is expected to remain relatively subdued in the backdrop of a slowdown in major global economies, according to a CareEdge Ratings report. The higher thrust towards Electric Vehicles (EVs) and alternative fuels is also expected to dampen demand for oil. Brent crude oil price on Wednesday (Feb 26, 2025) was trading 0.21 per cent lower at $72.87/bbl on NYMEX.
The report points out that the decline in crude oil prices would result in improved retail margins of oil marketing companies such as Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum which are expected to be in the range of Rs7-9 per litre.
The higher retail margins of oil marketing companies are expected to offset the impact of reduced gross refining margins whereby integrated players having a presence in both refining and fuel retailing businesses are expected to be better-off compared to standalone refiners.
CareEdge Ratings observed a softening of Gross Refining Margins (GRMs) for Indian public sector oil marketing companies (OMCs) during the first nine months of FY25 to an average of $4.8 per barrel compared to $11.75 a barrel in FY24 and $17 in FY23. This was mainly due to a decline in discounts available on sourcing of Russian crude oil along with the reduction in product cracks especially diesel which had previously gone up sharply in the aftermath of the Russia-Ukraine war.
Going forward, CareEdge Ratings expects GRMs of Indian PSU OMCs to remain in the range of $4-$6/bbl in the next 6 months.
https://www.bizzbuzz.news/industry/energy/oil-prices-may-hover-in-75-80bbl-range-1353499
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump said he plans to revoke Chevron Corp.’s oil license to operate in Venezuela, threatening to torpedo the nation’s slow economic recovery.
The US president referred to a concession agreement from November 2022, which would match the date that Chevron was granted a license to produce and sell oil in Venezuela despite sanctions against Nicolás Maduro’s authoritarian government. Under the terms of the license, Chevron would have a six-month wind-down period to exit Venezuela.
“We are hereby reversing the concessions that Crooked Joe Biden gave to Nicolás Maduro, of Venezuela, on the oil transaction agreement,” Trump wrote in a social media post. He cited the electoral conditions in Venezuela and the country’s failure to take back migrants from the US as quickly as it promised.
The move represents an intensification of US restrictions on the South American nation after Maduro’s contested reelection and a sweeping crackdown on his opponents. And Trump is promising to hit where it hurts most: the economy, at a time when almost 80% of citizens say they feel frustrated and disappointed after Maduro’s inauguration last month, according to pollster Meganalisis.
Late Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a post in X that he will provide “foreign policy guidance” to “terminate all Biden-era oil and gas licenses that have shamefully bankrolled the illegitimate Maduro regime.”
Maduro’s officials blasted Trump’s move. “The United States government has made a harmful and inexplicable decision to announce sanctions against the American company Chevron,” Venezuela Vice President and Oil Minister Delcy Rodriguez said in a statement. Instead of hurting the Venezuelan people, Washington is causing “damage to the US, its people and its companies.”
Chevron is the only US oil major left in Venezuela and serves as a vital lifeline, having helped tame runaway inflation in recent years. The company’s oil production, which is operated through joint ventures with state-controlled Petroleos de Venezuela SA, totaled more than 200,000 barrels a day as of mid-2024. It accounts for about 20% of the oil-rich nation’s production and has helped boost overall output above 1 million barrels a day.
“We are aware of today’s announcement and are considering its implications,” Chevron spokesperson Bill Turenne said by email. “Chevron conducts its business in Venezuela in compliance with all laws and regulations, including the sanctions framework provided by US government.”
The US government has allowed a few other oil majors to keep buying and producing Venezuelan crude, including Reliance Industries Ltd. of India, Repsol SA of Spain and France’s Maurel & Prom. Trump’s pronouncement raises questions about their ability to continue their operations.
If Trump actually follows through — and isn’t just using the threat as a negotiation tactic — it could cut Venezuela’s overall production by 100,000 barrels per day, according to Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American energy policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston. And other foreign oil producers may follow suit.
“Venezuela might see its revenues decrease by the void of barrels sold at US refineries at market price rerouting to the Asia market with discount,” Monaldi said. “But it could compensate this by taking all of Chevron’s shares of their production.”
Trump has been telegraphing the revocation of the license for weeks, with both the president and Rubio indicating Chevron’s operating license was under review.
It also dovetails with his repeated, confident assertions that the US is so rich in oil and gas bounty that it doesn’t need to rely on foreign supplies, whether from North American allies or Venezuela. The president has promised to “drill, baby, drill” and entice oil companies to tap more of what he calls the “liquid gold” under US soil.
Yet oil exports from Venezuela have been seen as helping blunt the potential impact of Trump’s promised tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude, currently on hold until early March. And even without immediate new levies on Canadian crude, removing Venezuelan supplies could act to boost domestic energy costs, running counter to the president’s bid to tame inflation and pare fuel prices.
The US imports about 250,000 barrels a day of Venezuelan crude, mostly for refineries on the Gulf Coast. Valero Energy Corp., the third-biggest US fuelmaker, was the top user of Venezuelan oil at the end of 2024, followed by Chevron, which uses the crude in its own refineries as well as sells it to others.
By granting the waiver to Chevron in 2022, then-US President Joe Biden sought to pressure Maduro into democratic reforms and increase the flow of oil to US refineries at a time when US gas prices were at record highs.
Chevron — having endured political convulsions, military coups, civil unrest and economic collapse in its century-long history in Venezuela — is a little more shielded.
It removed its Venezuelan assets from its reserves given the uncertainties around the sanctions waiver. That means the country’s production doesn’t contribute to earnings and is not included in the company’s financial forecasts.
Its shares fell less than 1% in New York after Trump’s post.
Meanwhile, dollar bonds from Venezuela and PDVSA fell to session lows on the announcement, according to indicative pricing data collected by Bloomberg.
Chevron’s joint ventures with Venezuela’s state producer are estimated to have contributed some $4 billion in tax payments over the past two years, representing about a quarter of the regime’s total revenue over the same period, according to Ecoanalítica, a Caracas-based consultancy. They have been a driving force behind the uplift in Venezuela’s economy, which is on track to grow 9% this year.
Canceling the license may prove more complicated for Trump than first thought.
Operational control over Chevron’s joint ventures is likely to pass to PDVSA, which in turn could flow revenues back to Maduro.
Further, the dollars Chevron generates from rising oil production stay within Venezuela and mostly get reinvested in local currency through private banks, which then lend to local companies to boost the economy — all out of the clutches of Maduro’s government.
An end to this source of private revenue may see inflation return, which could increase migration over the long-run.
Venezuela opposition leader María Corina Machado — who Maduro banned from running in last year’s election — appeared Wednesday evening on Donald Trump Jr.’s podcast.
She commended the US president’s decision to revoke Chevron’s license, saying the oil major provided “billions of dollars” that “Maduro has used for repression, persecution and corruption.”
She said it showed that Maduro was in “big” trouble.
Analysts, however, suggest the move could still just be a negotiating tactic.
“I never bought into the idea of Maduro becoming Trump’s best friend,” said Alejandro Arreaza, an economist at Barclays in New York. “The American government is using a good-cop-bad-cop strategy and now the bad cop is coming out to ratchet up pressure.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-revoking-venezuela-oil-license-193555113.html
Nationial oil company Naftna Industrija Srbije gets a 30-day reprieve, Serbian president says.
The United States has delayed by 30 days sanctioning Serbia's main oil company, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said Thursday, citing a U.S. Treasury document.
"We got an additional 30 days for the oil industry of Serbia," Vučić said in a post on Instagram, along with a letter showing the details. "Good news for the citizens of Serbia."
The Biden administration in December announced it would impose sanctions on Serbian oil company Naftna Industrija Srbije, which is majority-owned by Russia's Gazprom and Gazprom Neft.
The U.S. in January placed its largest sanctions on Russia's oil sector, under which Gazprom Neft was essentially given 45 days to exit NIS ownership. Serbia has faced long-standing criticism for allowing Gazprom Neft to hold a 50 percent stake and Gazprom an additional 6.15 percent in NIS, the country's national gas and oil provider. The Serbian government owns only 29.8 percent of the company.
On Wednesday, Gazprom Neft cut its stake in NIS by transferring a stake of about 5 percent to Gazprom in attempt to fend off the looming sanctions.
NIS supplies about 80 percent of crude oil to Serbia, making it almost entirely dependent on Russia.
Hungary's MOL Group has said it is ready to increase its supplies to Serbia.
"Serbia can always count on MOL Group; we are ready to increase the supplies according to our capabilities. We can even double the quantity of fuels supplied to Serbia," Csaba Zsótér, managing director of MOL Group's fuels branch, said last week.
https://www.politico.eu/article/us-postpones-sanctions-on-serbian-oil-company-says-vucic/
China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), the state-run exploration and refining giant, has signed an $850 million contract with Algerian oil company Sonatrach for exploration and development of hydrocarbon deposits in the North African country.
Sinopec International Energy secured a production sharing contract (PSC) covering the Hassi Berkane North licence in Algeria, which lies 80 kilometres form the huge Hassi Messaoud field.
The two companies have agreed to carry out exploration and appraisal drilling on the licence,
Sonatrach is also in discussions with seven international companies for exploration and development of the country’s oil and gas reserves, the company’s CEO Rachid Hachichi said during the signing of the agreement with Sinopec.
The list includes Italy's Eni, France's Total, US's Chevron and ExxonMobil as well as a Swedish company, Algerian state news agency quoted him as saying.
The PSC agreement comes almost a year after the Sinopec and Sonatrach entered into a memorandum of understanding on the matter in March 2024.
Sinopec has been present in Algeria since 2002 and operates the Zarzaitine field.
Besides oil and gas exploration, Sinopec has started the second phase of its rural well-drilling project in Senegal. The first phase, launched in 2017, already delivered daily water supply of 110,000 cubic meters.
Under phase two, Sinopec plans to build 85 wells, 89 water towers, 1,450 kilometers of pipelines, and 300 centralised water distribution stations. This will provide a reliable water supply to more than 2 million rural residents.
The company now reports that the component shortage is resolved.
Electric vehicle manufacturer Rivian recently announced it successfully delivered 51,579 electric SUVs, trucks, and vans to customers in 2024. That's more than triple the amount of EVs the company shipped in 2023, per a TechCrunch report.
And all those vehicles add up to a healthy profit for the company. Rivian recently reported a gross profit of $170 million for 2024.
While this news bodes well for the future of the car manufacturer — and EVs in general — there are still some growing pains for the company to work out as its vehicles grow in popularity. Rivian currently ranks third in EV sales behind Tesla and Ford in the United States, Inside Climate News reported in May.
Even though Rivian shipped more cars in 2024 than the previous year, the number of EVs the car manufacturer actually built in 2024 was lower than the company expected. InsideEVs reports Rivian, which built 49,476 EVs in 2024, originally projected to produce about 57,000 vehicles in 2024 — the same number it built in 2023. The company now reports that the component shortage is resolved.
TechCrunch reports the company had a tough start to 2024, cutting 10% of its workforce due to a "pricing war" spurred by Tesla EVs. But the company also had substantial wins, from upgrades to its existing lineup and new releases. Rivian also announced a joint venture with Volkswagen Group in June, which saw Volkswagen invest $5.8 billion into Rivian in exchange for "software and electrical architecture know-how" to help modernize Volkswagen's portfolio, per TechCrunch.
The company also secured a $6.6 billion loan commitment from the government before the close of 2024, but TechCrunch reports that the loan is already in jeopardy under President Donald Trump's leadership.
Switching to an EV is a key way drivers can lessen their environmental impact. In the U.S., the transportation sector is the single largest source of pollution heating up our planet. Unlike gas-powered vehicles, EVs produce no planet-warming air pollution when driven and don't run on dirty energy sources.
Many of the extra costs of owning a vehicle are also lowered — or eliminated — when owning an EV. Experts estimate you'll save around $1,500 annually on gas and maintenance with an EV.
The Environmental Protection Agency reports that wider adoption of EVs would also improve public health, lowering the risk of respiratory irritation, illnesses, and cancers linked to air pollution.
https://www.thecooldown.com/green-tech/rivian-electric-vehicle-delivery-record/
L'Air Liquide (EPA:AI) Full Year 2024 Results
Key Financial Results
- Revenue: €27.1b (down 2.0% from FY 2023).
- Net income: €3.31b (up 7.4% from FY 2023).
- Profit margin: 12% (up from 11% in FY 2023). The increase in margin was driven by lower expenses.
- EPS: €5.74 (up from €5.36 in FY 2023).
ENXTPA:AI Earnings and Revenue Growth February 23rd 2025
All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period.
L'Air Liquide EPS Misses Expectations
Revenue was in line with analyst estimates. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 4.2%.
Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 5.5% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 5.5% growth forecast for the Chemicals industry in France.
The company's shares are up 2.5% from a week ago.
French energy giant EDF announced it has written down $940 million in the value of its stake in the Atlantic Shores wind energy project off New Jersey, after its erstwhile partner Shell pulled out of its $1 billion investment in January.
With the new Trump administration’s hostility to offshore wind projects, Shell’s continuing pivot away from renewable projects to its legacy oil business, was a major blow to the planned 1,510-megawatt turbine array off Long Beach Island and Brigantine, N.J.
The Atlantic Shores offshore wind farm would build up to 200 wind turbines off Long Beach Island and Atlantic City, N.J. BOEM graphic.
Soon after Shell’s decision, the New Jersey state Board of Public Utilities decided not to proceed with a new wind power solicitation that would have allowed Atlantic Shores to submit an updated bid.
“There have been significant evolutions in US offshore policy and that led us to reexamine our activities… and take a position that preserves the company and its future development,” EDF chief executive Luc Remont said in a Friday conference call with journalists, Agence France-Presse reported.
“In order to take into account the new American orientation… the board decided, at this stage, to write down the offshore activities in Atlantic Shores.”
EDF’s withdrawal marks a second defeat for New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy’s administration policy of developing offshore wind as a major contributor to the state’s energy future. Atlantic Shores was the second big nearshore project envisioned for New Jersey, along with Ørsted’s planned 1,100 MW Ocean Wind turbine array. Ørsted abruptly cancelled that plan in fall 2023 citing escalating costs.
The companies had obtained extensive wind energy leases from the federal Bureau of Ocean Energy Management. Opponents of the projects – including Jersey Shore community activists, local governments and commercial fishermen – say they will continue pushing to ensure the leases are not used to revive future wind energy plans.
India is at risk of missing its ambitious clean energy targets if it doesn’t significantly boost investment in renewable energy, which is only a fifth of what is required annually through 2030, clean energy think tank Ember said in a report.
India’s investments in renewable power generation and transmission were estimated at $13.3 billion for the fiscal year 2024.
While this figure is a massive 40% jump from the previous fiscal year, it is still far behind the $68 billion annual investment required to achieve India’s goal of having 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity installed by 2030 and more than 600 GW by 2032.
India will need a total capital flow of $300 billion by 2032 to remain on track to meet its renewable capacity commitments, Ember said.
Significant challenges remain in India’s push for a fast rollout of renewable energy. These include project commissioning delays, driven by land acquisition challenges, grid connectivity issues, and regulatory hurdles, according to Ember’s report.
Delays could raise the cost of capital by 4%, which, in turn, could lead to India falling short of its 2030 renewable energy target by as much as 100 GW, the think tank reckons.
India will also need massive investments in the power sector to support the country’s goal to reach net zero by 2070.
Moody’s, for example, says that India will need $700 billion in investment over the next 10 years alone to get on track for net zero by 2070.
India’s power sector continues to rely on coal, and a massive effort is needed to attract investments in renewables and convince investors that the higher-risk capital invested in India would reap higher rewards.
In India, coal use is rising – demand increased in 2024 by more than 5% to hit 1.3 billion tons—a level that only China has reached previously, per IEA data.
India has recently reduced coal imports, but that’s only because it aims to hike domestic output to source more coal at home. With industry expected to expand and power demand to soar, India is set to use more of its lower-quality domestic coal to meet its consumption needs.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Denison Mines, Cosa's largest shareholder, participated in the offering under its pre-emptive and top-up rights.
Denison, a major operator in the Athabasca Basin, is focused on the Wheeler River project and has a market capitalisation of around C$2bn ($1.4bn). Credit: Sobrevolando Patagonia/Shutterstock.
Canadian uranium exploration company Cosa Resources has closed a previously announced brokered private placement, including full exercising of the over-allotment option, for aggregate gross proceeds of approximately C$6m.
This strategic financial move is expected to bolster the company’s uranium projects in the Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan.
Denison Mines, Cosa’s largest shareholder, participated in the offering under its pre-emptive and top-up rights.
A key player in the Athabasca Basin, Denison’s current focus is on the development-stage Wheeler River project.
Cosa issued 8.8 million units at C$0.25 per unit and 8.94 million charity flow-through units at C$0.425 per unit.
The gross proceeds from the charity units will be used to incur qualifying expenditures related to the company’s uranium projects, with all expenditures to be renounced in favour of the subscribers, effective 31 December 2025.
The net proceeds from the units’ sale will fund exploration and provide additional working capital.
Certain company insiders including directors and officers from Cosa and Denison participated in the offering, which is considered a related-party transaction exempt from certain formal valuation and minority approval requirements.
Denison held a 19.95% ownership stake in Cosa on a partially diluted basis before the offering.
Following the offering, Denison will file an early warning report regarding its acquisition of additional units.
Denison’s ownership has adjusted to 18.81% of Cosa’s issued and outstanding shares and 14.25% of the warrants.
The company’s future investment decisions will be influenced by ongoing reviews and may lead to further acquisitions or disposals of Cosa securities.
The placement was led by Haywood Securities and included Red Cloud Securities as part of the syndicate of agents.
In November 2024, Denison Mines and Cosa Resources agreed to form three uranium exploration joint ventures in the eastern part of the Athabasca Basin in northern Saskatchewan.
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/cosa-private-placement-athabasca-basin/
Suderman: The Grain Markets are ‘Facing Headwinds’
Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodity Economist with StoneX. Photo: C.J. Miller / Hoosier Ag Today.
If you’ve been waiting to see if the corn and soybean markets climb higher, you may be waiting for quite a while—especially for corn prices!
“We’re seeing headwinds across the board for the commodities—not every commodity, but many of them,” according to Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX.
“The general thinking in the markets is with the Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Confidence [indexes] both plunging here over the past month, and with headlines of terrorists and inflation, that we’re going to see economic growth stumble here in the United States, as well as globally, and that’s going to hurt demand,” says Suderman. “Keep in mind that we had a significant rally in the grains and oil seed markets in recent weeks and months, therefore the funds are taking some profits on that rally.”
How’s the overall tone in the corn market?
“A combination of factors are really piling on and now the momentum has turned bearish,” says Suderman. “The dry areas of Argentina have turned wet and now flooding is a concern now. Also, the previously wet areas of Brazil that were slowing soybean harvest and therefore planting Safrinha corn dried out, and so we’re seeing very fast planting of the Safrinha corn crop in Brazil. We also saw that the funds had near-record large long positions or ownership in Friday’s CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) Report, which made the traders nervous.”
Suderman adds that we could also see a huge increase in corn acres in the Midwest this growing season—which would also add significant pressure on the corn market.
Fort Knox, where lies the US Bullion Depository, is known for its fortress-like security. Besides having a gold repository, the facility is being used as the US army's human resources command centre. It also hosts the largest annual training exercise of the American army.
February 24, 2025 13:57 IST
400 tonnes of gold reserves at Fort Knox: US President Donald Trump to 'find out' how safe the repository is (Image: 'X')
Fort Knox, a place where lies the US Army installation in Kentucky and which is situated south of Louisville, has been in the news for the past many days. Fort Knox, known for large gold reserves for decades, has been a symbol of the world’s most powerful country’s financial security. Fort Knox’s heavily guarded vaults are believed to hold a vast reserve of gold.
Now, questions are being asked regarding the safety of the Fort Knox gold depository. US President Donald Trump is not sure if the repository is safe enough and if all the gold is there. The US president is planning to visit Fort Knox himself to check on the country’s gold reserves.
Speaking about his planned visit, Trump said that Tesla CEO Elon Musk would take a look at the legendary depository.
Amidst all this, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said that audits have been done from time to time which confirm that the gold reserves are safe.
Fort Knox, where lies the US Bullion Depository, is known for its fortress-like security. Besides having a gold repository, the facility is being used as the US Army’s human resources command center. It also hosts the largest annual training exercise of the American Army.
Musk too raised speculations over the safety of Fort Knox gold reserves
Billionaire entrepreneur Musk too triggered speculation over the safety of gold reserves at the facility. The Tesla CEO took to his social media platform X to express his apprehension about the safety of the estimated $425 billion worth of gold repository.
“Who’s confirming that the gold hasn’t been stolen from Fort Knox?” Musk posted. “Maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not. That gold is owned by the American public! We want to know if it’s still there.”
The post by Musk triggered further speculations about the allegedly missing gold at Fort Knox. “It would be cool to do a live video walkthrough of Fort Knox!” Musk wrote. He later captioned the post with a South Park meme, “And it’s gone.”
Here’s what Trump has to say on allegedly “stolen” gold from Fort Knox
Trump last week said he wanted to travel to the Fort Knox military facility in Kentucky to find out if all gold reserves are still there or not, according to an AP report.
“I want to find out,” Trump said. “So we’re going to open up the doors. I’m going to see if we have gold there. We want to find, did anyone steal the gold at Fort Knox?” “We want to make sure that we actually have, you know, 400 tons of gold or whatever the hell it is. It’s a lot of gold. I don’t want to open it, and the cupboards are bare. Could happen,” he was quoted as saying in the report.
5 things you need to know about 400 tonnes of gold reserves at Fort Knox, Kentucky:
-First, the Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) raised questions over the safety of $425 billion gold reserves and since then the matter has garnered a lot of public attention.
-Musk’s gushing about gold reserves went viral recently. At the Conservative Political Action Conference, the billionaire flaunted his chainsaw, a gift he received from Argentinian president Javier Milei, and said everyone wants to see gold.
-“There’s like 5,000 tons of gold in Fort Knox. We all want to see it. This is your gold. It’s the public’s gold. I don’t know if it’s there. We just want to see it and make sure someone didn’t spray paint some lead or something. Part of this is also let’s have some fun and it’s the public’s gold so we have a right to see it,” Elon Musk was quoted as saying in the report by news agency AP.
“The President seems into it. It should be a live tour, let’s open the door and see what’s behind it. I’d watch that. What does 5000 tons of gold even look like? Maybe there’s some other stuff in there too,” Musk said.
-Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, however, took a different stand saying that there is an audit every year. “All the gold is present and accounted for,” he added.
Image: Equinox
Equinox Gold (TSX: EQX) (NYSE American: EQX) has agreed to acquire Calibre Mining (TSX: CXB) in a C$2.6 billion ($1.8 billion) all-stock deal that would make the combined company Canada’s second-largest gold producer.
Under the agreement, Calibre shareholders will receive 0.31 of an Equinox share for each Calibre share. Equinox’s stock fell 3% to $6.6 on Monday morning in New York, giving the company a market capitalization of $3 billion. Calibre shares were down 7% in Toronto at C$2.8 ($1.9), giving the company a market cap of C$2.5 billion ($1.7 billion).
The implied market capitalization of the combined company is estimated at $5.4 billion, the two miners said in the statement.
Canada’s second-largest gold producer
The deal, expected to close by the second quarter of this year, will create a company with nine producing mines, one mine under construction, and five projects across five countries.
Equinox produced a record 621,870 ounces of gold in 2024 from seven operating mines in Canada, the US, Mexico, and Brazil.
The company’s Greenstone mine in Ontario achieved commercial production in November 2024 and is expected to become one of Canada’s largest and highest-grade open-pit gold mines. At full production, it is projected to produce an average of 390,000 ounces per year for the first five years and 330,000 ounces annually over an initial 15-year mine life.
Equinox will now add Calibre’s Valentine gold mine in Newfoundland & Labrador. The mine is nearing construction completion, with first gold production targeted for mid-2025.
Calibre also has assets in Nicaragua and Nevada.
According to the two companies, the new Equinox Gold has the potential to produce more than 1.2 million ounces of gold annually with Greenstone and Valentine at full capacity, making it the second-largest gold producer in Canada, behind Agnico Eagle, and a top 15 gold producer globally.
The proposed acquisition follows a series of other gold sector deals over the past year, including Gold Fields Ltd.’s purchase of Osisko Mining Inc. and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd.’s acquisition of Centamin Plc.
Management of the combined company will include executives from both Equinox and Calibre. Equinox’s current President and CEO, Greg Smith, will remain as CEO, while Calibre’s current CEO, Darren Hall, will join as President and COO.
The board of directors will consist of ten members, with Ross Beaty serving as Chair. Five additional directors will come from Equinox, including Greg Smith.
“The combination of Equinox and Calibre brings together two new Canadian cornerstone gold mines—Greenstone and Valentine—a portfolio of operating gold mines in the Americas, and two excellent operating teams to create a gold mining powerhouse,” Beaty said in a statement.
The company will continue to operate under the Equinox Gold name and remain headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
https://www.mining.com/equinox-gold-to-buy-calibre-for-1-8b/
COPPER
March copper futures are lower and are trading at their lowest level since February 7. This decline was fueled by growing expectations that copper would not be included in the U.S. trade restrictions, increasing the supply outlook for North America. President Trump had threatened to impose tariffs on copper imports but backed off, choosing only to raise barriers on steel and aluminum. This move was intended to maintain a broader supply base for manufacturers.
Treatment charges for Chinese smelters remained negative, indicating significant overcapacity in refined copper production in the world’s top producer. Beijing announced that new smelters need to source a portion of their supply from domestic mines, which is likely to reduce the number of new smelters being built.
Prospects of a Federal Reserve that is likely to be slow to move to additional accommodation is seen as a headwind to higher prices for industrial metals.
GOLD
April gold futures advanced to a new record high on Monday, fueled by safe-haven demand and recent weakness in the U.S. dollar. The yellow metal gained further support as concerns increased over U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs, which could heighten global trade tensions. Weakness in the U.S. dollar makes gold more affordable for foreign investors.
Economic data on Friday revealed a slowdown in U.S. business activity and a decline in consumer confidence, which further bolstered gold’s appeal as a safeguard against economic instability. Traders are now looking ahead to the PCE index, which will be released on Friday, which could provide insights into the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Central bank demand for gold remains strong.
SILVER
April silver futures are lower and remain in a fairly narrow 5-day trading range. A weakening U.S. dollar has been supportive. However, this bullish influence is being offset by prospects of a Federal Reserve that will be slow to add to accommodation.
Some support for silver is coming from a safe-haven flow of funds as geopolitical uncertainties continued to drive demand for the metal as a safe-haven asset. Last week U.S. President Donald Trump’s warning of potential tariffs on key sectors, including automobiles, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and lumber, which added to market uncertainties.
Price advances have been limited due to comments from Federal Reserve officials who have recently expressed they would like to see more progress on inflation before considering further interest rate cuts.
Gerth: Is Elon Musk planning to use DOGE and Fort Knox gold tour to bolster X? | Opinion
Instead of wasting taxpayers' money coming to Kentucky, Musk ought to spend time learning that a government should help the poorest among us, not the richest man in the world promote his businesses.
Story Summary
Donald Trump and Elon Musk look like they’re getting ready to bring their road show to Kentucky soon to make sure no one has absconded with the gold at Fort Knox.
“We’re going to go to Fort Knox, the fabled Fort Knox, to make sure the gold is there,” Trump said recently, according to CSPAN. “If the gold isn’t there, we’re going to be very upset.”
It wouldn’t be the first time some conspiracy theorist wingnut caused the Treasury Department employees to swing open the 22-ton vault door for politicians to ogle the 24-karat porn housed inside the vault.
It happened back in 1974 after a book claimed former President Richard Nixon had sent all the gold to Arab oil sheikhs.
He hadn’t.
Entrance to Fort Knox - WILLIAMS KEITH
Then, seven congressmen, accompanied by a bunch of newspaper and television reporters, spent nearly four hours as they pored over stacks of gold bullion that was valued at somewhere between $500 million and $2 billion, according to a Courier Journal story, and took part in an “orgy of gaping and groping” the 27.4 pound bars.
“There are clearly gold bars here,” Rep. John H. Rousselot, a California Republican, said after he spent quality time with the gold.
From the newspaper coverage, it seemed like the congressmen acted a lot like Scrooge McDuck — rolling around in his riches.
Trump, Musk will play in Fort Knox gold while federal employees head to unemployment line
It doesn’t take a real vivid imagination to imagine Trump and Musk doing the same thing — quacking at each other gleefully as they play among the gold, as thousands of former federal employees head to the unemployment line because Musk’s kiddie corps decided their jobs were wasteful.
Musk is the primary source of this “question” about whether or not the gold is there.
He posted on “X,” the social media platform he owns, on Feb. 17, “Who is confirming that gold wasn’t stolen from Fort Knox? Maybe it’s there, maybe it’s not. That gold is owned by the American public! We want to know if it’s still there.”
Now, I hope you’re not buying too much of what Musk is saying here. Because he lies. A lot.
I asked “Grok,” the artificial intelligence tool on X, who the most pervasive spreader of lies on the platform is.
According to Grok, it’s impossible to say who is the worst but … . “That said, various analyses, reports, and even sentiment on the platform often point to Elon Musk as a top contender. His massive following — over 200 million as of recently — gives him unmatched reach, and he’s been called out for sharing misleading claims on topics like elections, COVID-19, and conspiracy theories.”
Musk hasn't proven claims of government waste
That’s part of why I have trouble believing Musk when he rants and raves about government waste and, with Trump’s permission, orders thousands of federal workers laid off because he says they are wasteful or aren’t doing their jobs.
He hasn't proven any of the employees are wasteful or weren't doing their jobs and has spread misinformation about what his computer geniuses have pulled up — including the untrue claim that the government spent $50 million for condoms for Palestinians.
Gerth: Would KFC headquarters be leaving Louisville if it had a major airport? | Opinion
Some of that “waste” is money that goes to finding cures for cancer or other diseases, protecting our nuclear arsenal, or getting much needed supplies and medicine to people in the poorest countries.
It goes to protecting our environment, making sure people who visit our national parks and forests are safe, and help our veterans.
That doesn’t sound too wasteful to me.
What’s wasteful would be a trip to Kentucky to learn what we already know — the gold is safe and sound.
How do we know that?
Because Trump’s treasury secretary says so.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told iHeart Radio host Dan O’Donnell last week, "all the gold is present and accounted for.” According to Bessent, an audit is conducted every year to make sure all the gold is there.
Gerth: Once a Republican hero, Mitch McConnell will be GOP target as he retires | Opinion
The Associated Press reported recently that there are about 147 million ounces of gold at the depository at Fort Knox. Based on the price of gold I found online Monday morning, that’s worth about $430 billion.
Why does Musk really want to tour Fort Knox?
What this is looking like, more and more, is a scam that will allow Musk, the richest man in the world, to use the federal government and its resources to bolster X.
“The ratings on a live broadcast of Fort Knox would be (two fire emojis),” Musk tweeted last week.
That same day, he responded to Alex Jones, another conspiracy theorist, “It would be cool to do a live video walkthrough of Fort Knox!”
He’s not said the live broadcast would be on “X,” but what do you think?
Instead of wasting taxpayers' money by coming to Kentucky, Musk ought to spend his time learning that a government should be here to help the poorest among us and not to help the richest man in the world promote one of his businesses.
The Bank of England was in the news because of the ‘gold squeeze’- traders moving gold from London to New York to profit from the price arbitrage. An informal version of this is taking place between Bangladesh and India.
By Amit Bhandari
Gold prices hit yet another high in Feb 2025, crossing Rs 85,000/10 grams, up nearly 30% over the past year. If not for the 9% cut in customs duty in July 2024, the price would have raced past Rs 95,000 per 10 grams.
Gold has been in the news for other reasons also. The Bank of England, which is the custodian for the gold reserves of several foreign governments, has over the last three months seen an outflow of gold. The London-New York track has been the busiest, with traders shifting gold across the Atlantic to benefit from the price difference, with nearly 400 tons of gold having made that journey since December 2024. Waiting times for physical delivery surged from a few days to several weeks, leading to the general public questioning whether the Bank of England had physical possession of the gold that it claimed to have. On the other side of the Atlantic, President Donald Trump has spoken of auditing the U.S. gold reserves in Fort Knox, which after the New York Federal Reserve is the second-largest custodian of American gold.
Gold prices usually rise in times of uncertainty, and the past few years have seen their fair share – pandemics, conflicts and geopolitical upheaval – which have all increased the allure of gold. Gold offers protection against inflation, a persistent bugbear in most developing countries. Those governments prop up their currencies artificially to keep inflation down, till the situation becomes unsustainable and there is a catastrophic devaluation, and gold is a good insulator. For instance, the Turks historically hoard gold because their currency depreciates regularly. The Turkish Lira has lost over 80% of its value against the U.S. dollar in the past five years. Ditto with the Egyptians, who are traditional hoarders of gold. Egypt, which has a similar income level as India, and is a major importer of food and energy, devalued its currency by 60% at one go in March 2024.
Something similar seems to be building up in India’s neighborhood.
Gold has long been favored by Indians to preserve wealth across generations. According to World Gold Council estimates, Indian households hold an estimated 24,000 tons of gold – at the current market prices this stash is worth an astounding $2.3 trillion. Indians holds an eighth of all the gold that has ever been mined.
The difference in gold prices between India and Bangladesh indicates that the latter may be significantly over-valuing its currency, to keep imports cheap and inflation down. The price of per gram of 22 karat gold in Bangladesh is Taka 13,149 per gram. That’s Rs 9,426 per gram in Indian money – 14% dearer than the Rs 8,085 per gram price of 22 karat gold in India.
Normally, if the price of a commodity is higher somewhere, traders pile on to benefit from the arbitrage – as seen in the London-New York gold shift. However, the opposite is happening here. There have been multiple seizures of gold at the India-Bangladesh border by India’s Border Security Force (BSF) – in December 2024, and January and February 2025 – in the past few months. Logically therefore, gold should be moving from India to Bangladesh, but all these seizures are of gold being brought in from Bangladesh to India – to pay for grain and other commodities being smuggled from India to Bangladesh, which the latter lacks.
This indicates that while in nominal terms, gold may be more expensive in Dhaka, in real terms, it is cheaper. Clearly, the Bangladeshi Taka is being artificially propped up by at least 15 per cent.
The current regime, which is presiding over a volatile situation, is unlikely to devalue its currency to its true value, inflation will hit be twice that of the of 10% it is currently.
28 February 2025
Gold extends its decline, supported by the strengthening US dollar, which gained momentum after Trump announced a 25% tariff on the European Union, Canada, and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods. This move will raise the total tariff rate on Chinese imports to 20%. A stronger dollar makes gold, which is denominated in USD, less attractive to foreign investors. As a result, gold is heading for its first weekly decline of 2025.
With US inflation data indicating a potential rebound in prices, the Federal Reserve appears ready to adopt a more hawkish stance on monetary policy. This was reflected in yesterday’s comments from Fed officials, including Patrick Harker, who stated that rising inflation expectations are forcing the central bank to reassess its policy. Harker also cast doubt on any rate cuts this year. At 2:30 PM today, the market will receive key data, including the PCE inflation report. During this time, increased volatility in gold prices can be expected, and stronger-than-forecast data may weigh on sentiment in the metals market.
Great Southern Copper PLC (LON:GSCU)’s stock price traded up 17.9% during trading on Friday . The stock traded as high as GBX 1.65 ($0.02) and last traded at GBX 1.65 ($0.02). 1,001,429 shares were traded during trading, an increase of 104% from the average session volume of 491,388 shares. The stock had previously closed at GBX 1.40 ($0.02).
Great Southern Copper Trading Up 7.1 %
The firm’s 50-day moving average is GBX 1.51 and its 200 day moving average is GBX 1.37. The firm has a market capitalization of £7.31 million, a price-to-earnings ratio of 0.00 and a beta of -0.41.
Great Southern Copper (LON:GSCU) last posted its earnings results on Tuesday, December 3rd. The company reported GBX (0.25) ($0.00) EPS for the quarter.
About Great Southern Copper
Great Southern Copper is a mineral exploration company focused on copper-gold deposits in Chile. The Company has the option to acquire rights to 100% of two projects that are prospective for large porphyry copper-gold deposits in the underexplored coastal belt of Chile, a globally significant mining jurisdiction and the world’s largest copper producer.
Niger has announced the imminent launch of copper mining operations in its desert north, marking a significant step in the country’s efforts to diversify its mineral production.
A permit has been granted to the national firm Compagnie Minière de l’Air (Cominair SA) to begin extraction in the Agadez region, according to a government statement issued on Sunday, February 23, 2025.
Already a major uranium producer, Niger’s military-led government—which seized power in a July 2023 coup—said the decision would bring the country into the “restricted circle of copper-producing nations.”
Preliminary research suggests the new mines could yield approximately 2,700 tonnes of copper annually for a decade, generating millions of dollars in revenue and creating 300 direct jobs. Copper is currently trading at about $9,000 per tonne.
Additionally, a lithium mining permit has been awarded to Compagnie Minière de Recherche et d’Exploitation (Comirex SA) for a project in Dannet, also in the Agadez region. The small-scale lithium mine is expected to produce 300 tonnes annually for five years.
The Nigerien state holds a 25% stake in Cominair and a 40% stake in Comirex.
Since taking power, Niger’s military rulers have sought to increase national control over mineral resources, cancelling a lithium extraction permit previously granted to French nuclear group Orano.
The French company, which had been present in Niger for 50 years, criticised the government’s intervention in its operations at Imouraren, a site with an estimated 200,000 tonnes of uranium reserves.
Beyond uranium and lithium, Niger also produces oil and gold, positioning itself as a key player in the West African mining sector.
The new copper project signals its determination to expand resource exploitation under domestic control.
https://newscentral.africa/niger-launches-copper-lithium-mining-to-expand-resources/
The Northern Cape High Court has issued a final forfeiture order for a vehicle used in the theft of copper cables from a farm, following the arrest of two suspects in Upington, as part of intensified efforts by the Hawks and the Asset Forfeiture Unit to combat infrastructure-related crime.
AS PART of efforts to combat infrastructure-related crime, the Northern Cape High Court has issued a final forfeiture order for a vehicle used in the theft of copper cables, underscoring law enforcement’s intensified efforts to combat the pervasive issue of copper cable theft.
The Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, known as the Hawks, in collaboration with the Asset Forfeiture Unit, successfully secured the order against Jefta Chikwanhandze, 38. In December 2023, Upington police responded to a theft complaint from a local farm and discovered a silver Ford Focus near the crime scene. A search of the vehicle revealed stolen copper cables, leading to the immediate arrest of Chikwanhandze and his accomplice, Joe Mkanya, 33. The seized vehicle, valued at R48,000, has now been forfeited to the state.
Hawks provincial spokesperson Lieutenant-Colonel Tebogo Thebe emphasised the significance of this legal action, stating that it serves as a stern warning to those involved in infrastructure crimes.
The criminal investigation into the matter remains ongoing.
Shares in mining giant BHP Group (BHP) weakened today as copper prices fell on tariffs fears and potentially faltering Chinese demand.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was off by as much as 0.5% sending BHP’s shares down 0.39%. Mining rival Rio Tinto (RIO) was 0.54% lower and Southern Copper (SCCO) was 0.5% less shiny.
Tariffs Making Copper Producers Nervous
The reason behind the drop continues to be uncertainty and nervousness over President Trump’s tariffs policy and what that might mean for copper producers. Although he has resisted adding copper to his metals tariffs list to date, many experts believe it is next in line. That is important not just for the mining industry itself but also the end-users of copper which plays a huge role in the clean energy revolution given its use in electric vehicles, wind turbines and solar panels. These businesses are already facing pressures from Trump’s preference for fossil fuel energy. “Tariffs pose a headwind to growth and demand,” said Bank of America analyst Michael Widmer, as reported by Reuters. “The last time Trump introduced tariffs in 2018, many investors rightly concluded that shorting base metals was a very attractive trade.”
Chinese Copper Lift Fails to Happen
Also weighing on the copper price, according to a Reuters report, was data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), showing the market had a 301,000 ton surplus last year, compared with a 52,000 ton shortfall in 2023. In addition, the expected pick-up in demand for copper from China post its lunar new year holiday was in doubt following less than convincing housing data. This quashed hopes of an immediate domestic economic surge and copper inventory hike.
Is BHP a Good Stock to Buy Now?
On TipRanks, BHP has a Moderate Buy consensus based on 3 Buy and 3 Hold ratings. Its highest price target is $56. BHP stock’s consensus price target is $52.20 implying an 1.95% upside.
One party has taken control of up to 90% of available London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium inventories worth half a billion dollars, according to LME data on Monday.
The exchange does not provide the identity of parties holding large positions, but often investors or traders will hold inventories hoping to profit from looming shortages or to meet commitments to customers.
"It seems a fair assumption to think it must be a physical trader looking for metal to fulfil a physical short," said Alastair Munro, senior base metals strategist at broker Marex.
That seems to be reflected in a spate of fresh cancellations in LME warehouses recently - 32,175 metric tons in a week - in which owners give notice of plans to remove metal, Munro added.
LME positioning data (0#LME-WHL) showed between 80% and 90% of LME inventories of the metal used for transport, packaging and construction was held by one party as of February 20.
The LME, owned by Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing 388, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Total LME stocks of aluminium stand at 535,900 tons, but the LME bases its position data on inventories that are available and not cancelled - earmarked for impending shipment - which is 208,400 tons.
Ninety percent of those available stocks was worth $505 million at the LME cash price (CMAL0).
Benchmark LME three month aluminium prices ALI1! touched its highest in nearly nine months on Friday at $2,736 a ton in the wake of a decision by the European Union to ban Russian primary aluminium imports.
Overall LME stocks (MALSTX-TOTAL) have halved since May last year, suggesting a aluminium tighter market.
This is reflected in the premium of cash LME aluminium over the benchmark three month contract (CMAL0-3), which surged to $38 a ton on February 17, the highest on a closing basis since May 2023.
The premium, also known as a backwardation, usually indicates shortages of near-term inventories on the LME.
LME data also showed that between 80% and 90% of available zinc inventories was held by one party as of February 20, worth about $370 million, but the key LME zinc spread showed no backwardation.
While LME inventories of the metal mainly used for galvanizing steel have tumbled (MZNSTX-TOTAL), mine supply is expected to recover and analysts have forecast a global surplus this year.
Ivanhoe Mines has made key appointments to strengthen the executive leadership teams of Ivanhoe Mines and the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
Marna Cloete, currently President of Ivanhoe Mines, will take on the role of President and Chief Executive Officer, following nearly two decades of experience in building the company to become a major, diversified metals producer.
Ivanhoe Mines Executive Co-Chair, Robert Friedland commented: “I would like to offer my profound congratulations to Marna Cloete on her appointment as President & Chief Executive Officer of Ivanhoe Mines. “Marna’s success is the best example of our greatest asset – our culture. She has driven this company forward tirelessly and with great tenacity, while building around her a world-class team of decision-makers who are never wrapped up in bureaucracy.”
Cloete joined Ivanhoe Mines in 2006 with a background as a Chartered Accountant (CA) and a Master’s Degree in Taxation. She has been the President of the company since April 2020. Cloet said “It has been the journey of a lifetime being part of Ivanhoe Mines’ organic growth from a junior exploration company to one of the world’s most successful builders of mining projects and the largest producers of critical metals.”
Other key appointments include Annebel Oosthuizen who will take over as Managing Director at the Kamoa Copper Joint Venture. Oosthuizen was appointed as the Chief Executive, Commercial for Kamoa Copper in September 2022. Prior to this, she joined the Kamoa-Kakula project in 2015 and served in progressively senior roles within the finance department, including as Executive, Finance.
With 36 years of mining and development experience across South Africa in numerous operational leadership and management roles, Tom van den Berg will join Kamoa Copper as Senior Executive, Operations.
https://www.miningreview.com/news/ivanhoe-mines-makes-key-executive-appointments/
China’s securities regulator on Tuesday approved the planned Nasdaq IPO by Xinxu Copper Industry Technology Ltd., according to a statement on the China Securities Regulatory Commission’s (CSRC) website saying the company completed its registration. Xinxu Copper plans to sell up to 3.45 million shares in the IPO, according to the statement.
The company made its first confidential filings for a Nasdaq listing as early as 2021, and made its first public filing in April last year, according to the U.S. securities regulator. Most recently, it filed an updated prospectus last August saying it aimed to raise $15 million in the IPO.
Xinxu manufactures and sells copper and copper alloy products, including copper bars, copper rods and electrolytic copper. The company reported revenue of $49.3 million in the six months to December 2023, the first half of its fiscal year, down by more than half from $107.7 million in the year-ago period. It reported a loss of $301,000 in the six months to December 2023, reversing a $520,000 profit a year earlier.
By Doug Young
https://thebambooworks.com/brief-xinxu-copper-gets-chinas-approval-for-nasdaq-ipo/
The United States and Canada have long shared more than just a border — they’ve built an aluminium supply chain that’s deeply intertwined and vital to both economies. As the US grapples with declining aluminium production and mounting energy costs, the importance of Canada’s role has never been clearer. Let’s break down why the US aluminium industry leans so heavily on its northern neighbour — and why replacing Canada simply isn’t an option.
Image Source: https://www.benefitsandpensionsmonitor.com/
A shrinking giant: The state of US aluminium production
Once a global leader in aluminium production, the US now produces just 1.2 per cent of the world’s aluminium supply. According to the US Geological Survey (USGS), the US had a primary aluminium production capacity of 1.36 million tonnes in 2024, but only half of that capacity was in use, producing a mere 680,000 tonnes. To put this in perspective, the US imported over 4.8 million tonnes of crude and semi-manufactured aluminium products last year — and Canada alone supplied 2.6 million tonnes of that total.
Why the decline? The biggest culprit is cost — particularly the cost of energy. Aluminium smelting is incredibly energy-intensive, with electricity often accounting for up to half of production expenses. In the US, industrial electricity prices are significantly higher than in Canada, where most aluminium smelters are concentrated in Quebec. Thanks to abundant, low-cost hydroelectric power, Canadian smelters enjoy energy prices up to three times lower than their US counterparts.
This energy cost gap has real consequences. In 2024, for example, Century Aluminum closed its Hawesville smelter in Kentucky, citing soaring energy prices and resulting in the loss of 600 jobs. While the US has passed legislation like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to encourage clean energy projects, these efforts have yet to make a dent in the cost crisis facing US smelters.
Canada’s aluminium advantage
While US smelters struggle, Canada’s aluminium industry continues to thrive. A single smelter in Sept-Îles, Quebec, produced 628,000 tonnes of aluminium in 2024 — nearly matching the entire output of the US. This isn’t just about low energy costs, though. Canadian smelters are also leading the way in clean aluminium production, incorporating carbon capture technology and advanced recycling processes to reduce their environmental footprint.
By Metal Miner - Feb 25, 2025, 2:00 PM CST
Via Metal Miner
Throughout 2024, China worked to control its rapidly growing copper smelters, which were lowering profit margins amid a bustling copper market. In response, China has released new, more stringent regulations for the construction of new copper smelters. The move aims to keep excess capacity in check.
However, it’s a slowdown rather than a complete halt to copper smelting. China currently leads the world in refined copper production and is also the world’s largest copper consumer. In fact, analysts expect about half of the global refined metal output for this year to come from China.
Why The Move?
China’s Copper Market Dominance to Continue in 2025
According to a Bloomberg report, eleven ministries signed the order to issue the guidelines. Experts claim the new rules are meant to link all expansions coming in the next few years to ensure sufficient control over the copper ore supply. In the meantime, China has to rely on external supply for its copper needs.
Analyst Zhao Yongcheng of Benchmark Mineral Intelligence Ltd. stated in an IndexBox report that rather than being extremely strict, the new rules actually allow for some flexibility. This seems to indicate that the Chinese government recognizes the vital role copper plays in sectors like electric vehicles, where demand continues to increase. Reports indicate that the government also wants to enhance domestic copper mining resources by 10% over the next three years.
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/China-Tightens-Grip-on-Copper-Smelting.html
Panama City: Julio Moltó, Minister of Commerce and industry, referred to the future of the Donoso copper mine and reiterated that President Mulino of the Republic of Panama maintains this issue as second in his order of priorities. Julio mentioned that the Minister of the Environment, Juan Carlos Navarro, has already announced that the terms of reference for the environmental audit are ready; likewise, the entity under his charge has the terms ready for the rest of the comprehensive audit. He explained that the process was carried out with the collaboration of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
Now they are asking another institution, whose name was reserved, to be in charge of the contracting, in order to have a comprehensive audit and begin to analyze what happened while the copper extraction process was active. He stressed that Mulino has been clear in saying that he will not negotiate with anyone, having arbitrations on the table. He clarified that the government has not held meetings with First Quantum Minerals, because they are not authorized to do so. Moltó also said that he does not see the signing of new contracts on the table. Regarding the Mining Moratorium Law, he said that it is an issue that must be dealt with legally and socially, since the economy that revolved around the area permeated five provinces and far beyond those territories. He reported that this week the president held talks with suppliers of the mine.
However, he stressed that there is nothing to discuss after a ruling by the Supreme Court of Justice ordered the suspension of work for violating 25 articles of the Constitution in a contract signed with the national government in November 2023. The international arbitration between the Panamanian State and First Quantum Minerals was rescheduled until February 2026 following the closure of the Donoso copper mine, according to a statement from the Canadian company. In a note dated February 11 this year, First Quantum reported that the Panamanian government requested an extension on the filing dates from the International Chamber of Commerce Arbitration Panel, “due to the replacement of its external legal team and the need for the new government to assess the situation of the mine.”
A massive power outage in Chile has hit copper production in the world’s biggest exporter as it plunged the capital city of Santiago into darkness, prompting the declaration of a state of emergency.
The outage was caused by a transmission line failure, Reuters reported, citing the Interior Minister of Chile, who also ruled out a cyberattack, the report said.
Among the copper operations affected by the outage was Escondida, the world’s largest, with Chile’s state copper major Codelco saying that all of its mines had suffered interruptions as a result of the outage. The miner added that it was using backup generators to keep partial operations at the mines.
Copper, one of the most widely used basic metals globally, has recently acquired additional significance because of its essential role in the energy transition. There is copper in pretty much everything transition, from EVs to wind turbines to chargers, to solar installations. For this reason, many have been warning of an impending shortage because demand projections significantly exceed output forecasts.
There is an additional challenge in the fact that the production of copper has become costlier in terms of yield per ton of ore. That yield has been in decline as the most abundant deposits in the world get depleted and miners need to process a lot more ore to get the same amount of copper as 30 years ago.
Yet even with the bullish projections for copper demand, copper miners have steered clear from a swift mine expansion—because the transition has been stumbling and those demand projections have consistently failed to materialize to any degree. Indeed, some have even spoken of copper oversupply, further sapping miners’ potential appetite for production expansion.
Still, copper remains a vital commodity and the interruption of supply in the world’s biggest miner will likely have an effect on international prices, although likely temporary. Had the blackout lasted longer, copper prices would have seen a bigger and more lasting impact.
By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Power-Outage-Hits-Chile-Copper-Mines.html
The U.S. industrial sector will have the most to lose from potential U.S. tariffs on copper, analysts say, with costs seen rising significantly during what would be a lengthy process of reviving domestic mining and refining of the metal.
President Donald Trump on Tuesday launched a probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports, saying they would help rebuild U.S. production.
U.S. prices of the metal used in power, construction and electric vehicles have already shot up on the U.S. COMEX exchange and a sustained period of buoyant prices may dampen industrial activity, curb consumption and force companies to use aluminium instead, analysts said.
The U.S. imports nearly half of its copper needs, according to the U.S. Geological Survey, and its copper mine output has fallen 11% since 2021 as miners struggle to expand existing mines and develop new projects.
The largest suppliers are Chile, Canada and Mexico.
"The U.S. has no chance of beefing up their own production and refining capacity anytime soon, so this looks like another own goal," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen.
The premium of prices on COMEX over benchmark international copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to $816 per metric ton on Wednesday from $580 a day earlier, although this is still below a record peak of $1,153 seen on February 13.
There are only two operating U.S. copper smelters.
Asarco, controlled by industrial conglomerate Grupo Mexico GMEXICO/B, said in May last year it was planning to restart its mothballed copper smelter in the U.S.
"But there has been no news since and there aren't any other recently mothballed smelters, while constructing a new one would take more than two years," Amy Gower, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, said in a note.
"New copper mines would take much longer, with many facing permitting challenges," she added.
Development of Rio Tinto RIO, RIO and BHP's BHP massive Resolution Copper mine in Arizona is on hold, having faced opposition from Native Americans.
The Miles Government has announced a partnership with mining giant Rio Tinto to secure the long-term operation of the Boyne Island aluminium smelter near Gladstone. This agreement will utilize the state’s renewable energy to protect approximately 1,000 local jobs.
The Boyne Smelter, operating since 1982, is Australia’s second-largest aluminium smelter, manufacturing carbon anodes, aluminium production, and casting molten metal into aluminium products for export. The government has committed to a support package, accessible by Rio Tinto from 2029, to ensure the smelter’s economic competitiveness as it transitions to renewable energy sources.
Under the agreement, Rio Tinto must operate the smelter at full capacity until at least 2040, maintain ongoing capital investment, and meet employment commitments. Additionally, the company will invest in demand response capabilities, reducing electricity demand during peak periods to ease pressure on the national grid.
Rio Tinto will also introduce an additional Australian crewed vessel on its Cape York to Gladstone route, creating maritime jobs and strengthening the state’s supply chain.
Premier Steven Miles emphasized the importance of the agreement: “I am partnering with industry to secure the jobs of working Queenslanders. This partnership with Rio Tinto will use firmed renewables to safeguard jobs at Boyne Smelter for the future.”
Minister for Regional Development and Manufacturing, Glenn Butcher, highlighted Gladstone’s key role in Queensland’s industrial economy: “Gladstone is Queensland’s industrial powerhouse, and the success of the Boyne Smelter is critical for our community and livelihoods.”
Minister for Resources and Critical Minerals, Scott Stewart, noted the broader impact: “Boyne Smelter supports hundreds of local jobs, and we want to see that continue, which is why this partnership is so important.”
Rio Tinto Chief Executive Australia, Kellie Parker, described the agreement as a major milestone: “This agreement with the Queensland Government represents one of the most significant partnerships in our long history of operations in the state. It paves the way for a competitive, green-energy powered BSL, supporting employment and lowering Australia’s carbon footprint.”
The agreement is subject to the completion of Rio Tinto’s energy contracting activities, joint venture approvals, and a Commonwealth Government contribution to the smelter’s long-term viability.
Construction and operational changes are expected to begin in the coming years, solidifying Boyne Smelter’s role in Queensland’s transition to a greener economy.
https://gcnews.com.au/miles-government-and-rio-tinto-partner-to-secure-boyne-island-smelter/
Solis Minerals (ASX:SLM) has secured firm commitments to raise $4.5 million via a placement of CHESS Depositary Interests (CDIs) as part of its drilling program in Peru.
Under the placement, participants can purchase CDIs over common shares at $0.085 per new share, along with a one-for-two accompanying unlisted option exercisable at $0.16 within two years.
Euroz Hartleys and GBA Capital are acting as joint lead managers to the placement.
Solis Minerals, which has a market capitalisation of $8.78 million, says its directors will also commit to investing $205,000 as part of the second tranche, subject to shareholder approval.
The funds will be used for ongoing work including drilling at the Ilo Este and Chancho Al Palo copper targets, as well as geochemical, geophysical, and permitting work at the Cinto Project to enable drilling in the second half of this year.
Solis will also use the funds for regional exploration work to conduct drilling at its other projects, including the Chocolate and Canyon projects.
Newly appointed CEO Mitch Thomas says Solis has established a landholding across nearly 70,000 hectares in the prolific Coastal Copper Belt of Peru, with exploration work to date identifying a pipeline of prospective copper targets.
“We are delighted to receive such strong support for the placement demonstrating the recognised quality of Solis Minerals’ drill-ready targets in the copper-rich region of southern Peru,” Thomas says.
“The company is now in a strong financial position ahead of drilling across our priority copper drill targets in Peru, commencing at Ilo Este and Chancho al Palo, where remaining approvals required to commence drilling are expected imminently.”
The Ilo Este Project is a large copper porphyry system with coincident gold, silver, and molybdenum located within southern Peru’s coastal copper belt.
Solis Minerals is focused on exploring for copper in South America via its portfolio of projects covering 65,100 hectares.
Write to Aaliyah Rogan at Mining.com.au
Images: Solis Minerals
https://mining.com.au/solis-taps-investors-to-tackle-drilling-in-peru/
Anglo American plc (LON:AAL) insider Duncan Wanblad sold 22,708 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction on Monday, February 24th. The shares were sold at an average price of GBX 2,388 ($30.29), for a total value of £542,267.04 ($687,719.77).
Anglo American Trading Up 3.5 %
LON:AAL opened at GBX 2,416 ($30.64) on Thursday. The stock has a fifty day moving average price of GBX 2,420.22 and a 200 day moving average price of GBX 2,345.10. The company has a current ratio of 1.98, a quick ratio of 1.28 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 78.84. Anglo American plc has a 12-month low of GBX 1,657.60 ($21.02) and a 12-month high of GBX 2,813 ($35.68). The firm has a market cap of £36.74 billion, a PE ratio of -22.25, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 2.05 and a beta of 1.10.
Analyst Ratings Changes
Several brokerages have recently weighed in on AAL. Citigroup restated a "top pick" rating on shares of Anglo American in a report on Thursday, December 12th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted their price objective on shares of Anglo American from GBX 2,160 ($27.39) to GBX 2,190 ($27.77) and gave the company a "neutral" rating in a report on Wednesday, February 19th. Finally, Berenberg Bank reiterated a "sell" rating and issued a GBX 2,100 ($26.63) target price on shares of Anglo American in a report on Tuesday, February 18th. One research analyst has rated the stock with a sell rating, one has assigned a hold rating, three have assigned a buy rating and one has assigned a strong buy rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of GBX 2,698.33 ($34.22).
https://www.insidertrades.com/alerts/lon-aal-insider-buying-and-selling-2025-02-27/
"The US produces around 5% of global copper mining output. Its reserves are also at around 5% of the total, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS). The country’s production has been on a downtrend -- dropping about 20% over the last decade, according to USGS. Meanwhile, the US imports roughly 45% of copper needs. It might be challenging to fill that gap with domestic production."
"The department has up to 270 days to report back to Trump. Copper prices on the LME and COMEX continue to diverge. LME copper is up around 8% year-to-date, while prices on COMEX have surged around 14%."
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https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-copper-surges-on-tariff-risks-ing-202502271058
By Metal Miner - Feb 24, 2025, 1:00 PM CST
Via Metal Miner
Swiss Steel Group recently announced plans to voluntarily delist from the local stock exchange. The sustainable steel industry leader partly cited restructuring and reorganization changes as reasons for the move, stating that both had resulted in large and long-term investors becoming its principal shareholders.
According to January 24 statement, the resulting low float of its shares, combined with the low share price, prompted the Lucerne-headquartered company to seek removal from the SIX Swiss Exchange. “The board of directors has determined that the benefits of maintaining a listing on the SIX Swiss Exchange are outweighed by the comparatively high costs and administrative efforts required to sustain it,” the company noted.
The company added that “the voluntary delisting will allow Swiss Steel Holding AG to allocate resources more effectively toward restructuring and operational improvements, aligning with the objectives of the SSG 2025 strategy.”
Diverse Steel Industry Ownership to Meet on Plans
Information on the group’s website indicates that about 11.3% of Swiss Steel’s shares are free float, while compatriot company GravelPoint Holding holds 65.75%. Meanwhile, PCS Holding AG/ Peter Spuhler, another Swiss company, hold 10.11%. Zürich Liwet Holding and CH ComplexProm Joint Stock Company, respectively based in Zürich and Moscow, hold the remaining 12.85%.
The latter company is associated with Russian-Cypriot Oligarch Viktor Vekselber’s Renova group, which also has a stake in aluminum producer Rusal.
In its announcement, Swiss Steel stated that an extraordinary general shareholders meeting is now due to take place on February 17, adding, “If the delisting is approved at the EGM, the Board of Directors will oversee its implementation in compliance with Swiss law and established practice.”
“This includes submitting a delisting application to the SIX Regulatory Board, which will determine the last trading date on the Swiss stock exchange,” the group added. The firm also took care to note that neither short-term external factors nor the current economic situation had influenced the decision to delist.
Swiss Steel’s Lackluster Start to 2025
Data from the Swiss SIX exchange showed that Swiss Steel’s steel industry share price reached a high of Fr1.84 ($2.01) on February 7, against Fr17.54 ($19.24) on the same date in 2023. This reflects an 89% decrease year on year.
Back in January, the company announced workforce reduction plans at its Emmenbrücke works in Lucerne Canton by Q2. That site has one electric arc furnace with an annual crude steel capacity of 500,000 metric tonnes per year, which it casts into billet for rolling into bar and wire. Those reductions are part of a planned downsizing of 800 full-time positions at the Swiss Steel’s European sites, which the group announced in November.
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Major-Changes-at-Swiss-Steel-Signal-Industry-Shift.html
The country's industry expects support from the new federal government
In January 2025, German steelmakers reduced steel production by 12.7% compared to the same month in 2024, to 2.68 million tons. The figure decreased by 2.3% compared to the previous month. This is evidenced by data from the German Steel Industry Association WVStahl.
Steel production in oxygen converters amounted to 1.85 million tons for the month, down 15.9% y/y and 16.7% m/m, and in electric arc furnaces – 825 thousand tons (-4.5% y/y; +59.9% m/m).
Pig iron production in Germany in January decreased by 16.3% compared to January 2024, and by 16.1% compared to December – to 1.72 million tons. Hot-rolled steel production decreased by 8.7% y/y and increased by 18.8% m/m – to 2.48 million tons.
“The weak start to the year is another indication of the urgency of economic stimulus to overcome the stagnation in Germany. We expect the new government to act decisively and promptly, both in Berlin and Brussels,” emphasizes Kerstin Maria Rippel, CEO of WVStahl.
As GMK Center reported earlier, Germany is one of the ten largest steel producers in the world according to World Steel. In 2024, the country increased steel production by 5.2% compared to 2023, to 37.23 million tons. Pig iron production for the year amounted to 24.33 million tons (+2.9% y/y), and hot-rolled steel production amounted to 31.61 million tons (+3% y/y).
Despite the growth in steel production, the volume of smelting for the third consecutive year remained below the 40 million tons, which corresponds to the level of the recession, WVStahl notes.
https://gmk.center/en/news/germany-reduced-steel-production-by-12-7-y-y-in-january/
Nucor Raises Hot Rolled Coil Prices: February 2025 Update
Nucor, a leading American steel manufacturer, has unveiled its latest increase in the spot price of hot rolled coil (HRC), setting a new base price of $860 per short tonne effective February 24, 2025, for most of its production facilities. Only California Steel Industries (CSI) will see a higher rate of $920 per tonne. Learn more here. This marks the fifth such price adjustment for Nucor since the year's start, reflecting a broader trend of increased steel pricing amid evolving market dynamics.
Earlier, on February 17, Nucor had set the base price at $820 per tonne, signaling a consistent upward revision strategy. Concurrently, the company also increased prices for wire rods by $70/mt starting February 14, citing rising raw material costs, particularly scrap metal, as a significant factor. The broader industry is following suit; for instance, Cleveland-Cliffs has initiated $900/t contracts for April HRC supplies, whereas NLMK USA aims to stabilize rolled steel at $900/t for hot-rolled and $1,100/t for cold-rolled varieties.
According to the IndexBox platform, these pricing maneuvers align with recent trends showing a 3% increase in North American HRC supply as of February 10, pegged at $685 per tonne. The market's instability in January, fueled by macroeconomic variables and new trade policies under the current US administration, appears to be settling into a more predictable pattern in February. Industry observers anticipate additional pricing shifts driven by demand levels and fluctuations in raw material costs.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/nucor-raises-hot-rolled-coil-prices-february-2025-update/
Prices for European steel hot-rolled coil continued to increase on Monday February 24, supported by limited import availability and restocking, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Most European buyers currently relied mainly on domestic producers and avoided buying imported HRC due to the trade risks, related to the latest steel safeguard review of the European Commission, Fastmarkets understands.
According to Fastmarkets’ sources, this was the main factor that fueled the observed price increase. Despite some small fluctuations, HRC prices in Europe have been increasing gradually since the beginning of January.
Besides, Fastmarkets’ sources expected that there would be more clarity on the new safeguard measures by the end of the week.
This also fostered expectations among local buyers that the domestic prices of HRC would only increase in the short run, stimulating them to make some restocking, sources told Fastmarkets.
Mills in Northern Europe were heard offering HRC with delivery in the second quarter of 2025 at €640 ($669) per tonne ex-works.
One integrated steel mill continued offering such material at €660 per tonne ex-works.
“I think that by the end of the week, offers of other producers in the region will also reach the €660-per-tonne level,” an industry source told Fastmarkets.
Fastmarkets’ sources estimated the workable market level for HRC in the region at €610-620 per tonne ex-works.
As a result, Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €618.75 per tonne on Monday, up by €0.62 per tonne from €618.13 per tonne on Friday February 21.
The Northern European index was up by €13.75 per tonne week on week and by €32.50 per tonne month on month.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €610.00 per tonne on Monday, up by €2.92 per tonne from €607.08 per tonne on Friday.
The index was up by €15.00 per tonne week on week and by €30.00 per tonne month on month.
Italian producers were offering April-delivery HRC at €620-640 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €610-630 per tonne ex-works.
Most Fastmarkets’ sources estimated the workable market level for HRC in Italy at €610 per tonne ex-works.
The European market for imported HRC was quiet on Monday.
Asian suppliers were heard offering May-shipment HRC to Italy and Spain at €560-580 per tonne CFR.
https://eurometal.net/european-hrc-prices-inch-upward-on-limited-imports-restocking/
Posted on 27 Feb 2025
Sweden-based steel company SSAB says it will showcase the first SSAB Zero™ steel in the Hardox® product range at bauma, in Munich, Germany, in April.
Hardox 450 made from SSAB Zero has the same qualities and high standards of performance that make Hardox wear plate the global benchmark for premium wear plate, the company says.
SSAB Zero is made using recycled steel in a process powered by fossil-free electricity and biogas – resulting in virtually no carbon emissions from fossil fuels during the steelmaking process, the company claims. The fossil carbon emissions in SSAB’s production of SSAB Zero are less than 0.05 kg CO2e/kg steel in Scope 1 and 2 of the GHG Protocol. This steel can thus help reduce carbon emissions at the source, from the steel production process itself, downstream throughout a manufacturer’s value chain.
SSAB says Hardox 450 made from SSAB Zero benefits manufacturers by:
- Immediately reducing the carbon footprint of construction, mining and quarrying equipment;
- Lowering emissions from steel production at the source;
- Supporting the development of clean energy technologies and achievement of broader sustainability goals; and
- Delivering superior hardness and toughness that can withstand the harshest working conditions and environments.
Epiroc is one of the first mining equipment manufacturers in the world to feature a loading bucket made with SSAB Zero in a commercial product. It achieved a reduction of 15 t of CO2e per bucket produced compared with traditional steel through the use of SSAB Zero, the company says.
“By introducing SSAB Zero™ in our serial production, we show this is not just talk – we are actually taking action and reducing our upstream footprint,” Carin Bergendorff, Vice President Group Strategic Sourcing at Epiroc, said.
https://im-mining.com/2025/02/27/ssab-to-debut-first-ssab-zero-steel-in-hardox-range-at-bauma/
(Bloomberg) -- Jindal Steel raised its offer for a troubled Italian steelmaker to about €4 billion ($4.2 billion), seeking to outbid rivals from Azerbaijan, people familiar with the matter said.
The Indian steelmaker’s latest proposal to the Italian government consists of a payment of about €1 billion for the assets, plus around €3 billion of investments to revamp the main steel plant in Taranto, the people said, asking not to be identified as the discussions are private.
The Italian steelmaker, once one of Europe’s largest, has been mired in controversy and disputes for years. The company, formerly known as Ilva, is currently under a state-administration regime, and the Taranto plant has operated at reduced capacity.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government is expected to pick a winning bidder in the coming weeks. A tender for steelmaking assets, including the Taranto unit, was launched after a clash with operator ArcelorMittal led to returning control back to the state.
Bedrock Industries Management and a consortium formed by Baku Steel Co. and Azerbaijan Investment Co. are also bidding.
The plant’s blast furnaces are currently running at a rate of about 2 million tons a year. The Italian government is seeking a bidder that will inject sufficient funds to restore production to levels as close as possible to the plant’s peak annual capacity of 10 million tons.
Jindal had previously offered a total of €2 billion, in a proposal that included a gradual shutdown of blast furnaces, the construction of two electric arc furnaces and a direct reduced iron (DRI) plant aiming to produce 6 million tons of steel per year, the company’s director of European operations, Narendra Kumar Misra, said in January to the Italian daily Il Sole 24 Ore.
In the current proposal, the payment for the assets will comprise about €500 million in cash and approximately €500 million of inventories, the people said.
Baku had offered around €1 billion for the asset, newspaper Il Messaggero reported in February.
Representatives for Jindal and the Italian government declined to comment.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/jindal-said-raise-bid-italian-124226752.html
The price for European steel hot-rolled coil continued to increase on Wednesday February 26 on bullish sentiment from producers, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Limited import availability and improved trading across Europe supported the domestic prices of HRC, Fastmarkets understands.
Fastmarkets calculated its daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Northern Europe at €626.25 ($656.82) per tonne on Wednesday, up by €5.62 per tonne from €620.63 per tonne on Tuesday February 25.
The Northern European index was up by €17.50 per tonne week on week and by €40.00 per tonne month on month.
Mills in Northern Europe were heard offering May-production/June-delivery coil at €650-660 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €640-650 per tonne ex-works.
“Customers who need the material are ready to buy at these prices,” a trader source based in the Benelux region told Fastmarkets, adding that the lower end of the price range was now considered typical for small-volume transactions.
According to the source, for bigger tonnages of around 10,000 tonnes, even lower prices could be negotiated.
Buyers’ estimations for the workable market level were at €600-630 per tonne ex-works.
One buyer source told Fastmarkets that €650-660 per tonne delivered, which would equal €640-650 per tonne ex-works, seemed a realistic tradeable price now.
Some transactions were heard at €630 per tonne ex-works.
Meanwhile, in Southern Europe, Fastmarkets’ daily steel hot-rolled coil index domestic, exw Italy was calculated at €610.21 per tonne on Wednesday, up by €0.21 per tonne from €610.00 per tonne on Tuesday.
The index was up by €10.21 per tonne week on week and by €30.21 per tonne month on month.
Real demand for HRC in Italy was still weak, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
Italian producers were offering HRC at €620-640 per tonne delivered, which would net back to €610-630 per tonne ex-works, Fastmarkets understands.
Most Fastmarkets’ sources estimated the workable market level for HRC in Italy at €600-615 per tonne ex-works.
The market of imported HRC remained largely quiet.
Turkey was heard offering HRC to Italy at €590-600 per tonne CFR, including the anti-dumping duty.
Asian origin coil was on offer to Italy at €550-560 per tonne CFR, industry sources told Fastmarkets.
However, no significant deals were heard in the market.
https://eurometal.net/european-hrc-prices-increase-positive-sentiment-prevails/
The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) has noted that, as reported by local media in South Korea, domestic steel giant Hyundai Steel has submitted an antidumping complaint to the Trade Commission of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy in South Korea, stating that low-priced hot rolled steel coil from China and Japan exerted a significant damage on its business, and thereby it has requested an antidumping investigation to be launched on HRC originating from China and Japan. Currently, the application for this antidumping investigation is being reviewed by the Trade Commission and is expected to be formally filed in early March.
According to the statistics from South Korea, the country imported 14.98 million mt of HRC (MTI 6132 category) during the period from January 2021 to January 2025. In particular, 7.53 million mt of HRC was imported from Japan, while 6.49 million mt was imported from China, with the two countries accounting for more than 90 percent of the total imported HRC.
However, South Korea’s steel exports continued to be slack, while its local media tried to blame China for the shrinking global demand for steel and its lack of competitiveness in HRC sales.
Previously, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said that China's steel industry mainly met domestic demand, without any subsidy policy to stimulate exports. China’s proportion of steel exports has long been at about five percent, far lower than Japan, South Korea and other steel-producing countries, and the impact on the international market is very limited, he stated.
The spokesman also noted that, although China’s steel capacity and production outputs accounted for half of the world’s total volume, its steel consumption has also been close to half of the world’s total volume. Meanwhile, he said, overcapacity is a common challenge in the global market, which is mainly caused by a weak recovery in global economic development and shrinking demand for steel, especially in developed countries.
CISA urged all parties involved to look at the global overcapacity issue objectively, historically and fairly, and take joint measures to deal with it.
Dalian iron ore futures prices snapped a four-day winning streak on Monday as increasing levies on Chinese steel dampened demand prospects for the key steelmaking ingredient, though decreasing portside inventories in China limited the fall.
The most-traded May iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trade 0.77% lower at 832.5 yuan ($114.95) a metric ton.
The benchmark March iron ore on the Singapore Exchange ticked 0.18% lower at $108.3 a ton as of 0710 GMT.
Vietnam will impose a temporary anti-dumping levy of up to 27.83% on some steel products from China, according to a trade ministry document seen by Reuters.
The move comes after U.S. President Donald Trump announced 25% tariffs on all steel imports earlier this month, with South Korea following suit and provisionally imposing tariffs on Chinese steel plates last week.
Meanwhile, China stocks slipped on Monday, weighed down by concerns over President Donald Trump’s new memorandum signed last week that restricts Chinese investments in strategic areas, escalating trade tensions.
The capacity utilisation rate of the blast furnace steel mills surveyed decreased for a second straight week, with daily hot metal production decreasing 0.21% on-week to 2.28 million as of February 20, Mysteel data showed.
Hot metal output is typically used to gauge iron ore demand.
Still, global iron ore shipments have fallen slightly year-on-year, affected by Australian weather, Chinese consultancy Hexun Futures said in a note, adding that port inventories are expected to fall.
Portside iron ore inventories in China fell 1.15% to 145.8 million metric tons as of February 21, weekly data tracked by SteelHome showed.
Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE fell, with coking coal and coke down 1.99% and 2.89%, respectively.
Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange posted losses. Rebar edged down nearly 0.8%, hot-rolled coil declined 1.24%, while both stainless steel and wire rod (SWRcv1) dipped 0.23%.
Source: Reuters
Natural gas bulls betting on the world's largest and fastest-growing power market to drive global demand over the next couple of decades could be in for disappointment. According to Global Energy Monitor (GEM), Asia's largest economies have three times more coal-fired power capacity under construction than gas-fired capacity, with coal accounting for ~45% of the region’s power generation. Asia’s largest economies are developing far more solar, wind and hydropower capacity than gas-fired capacity. According to GEM, across 10 of Asia's largest economies, there is just over 1 million megawatts (MW) of new power capacity under construction, with coal & clean energy sources dominating the continent's power development pipeline. Solar energy accounts for 26%, or 270,000 MW, of Asia’s power generation under construction, while new coal-fired capacity makes up the second largest share at 24% with just under 250,000 MW. Wind farms and hydropower plants account for a further 20% each, while gas-fired power plants account for a mere 7% share, or 70,000 MW. For some perspective, natural gas accounted for 43.1% of utility-scale power generation in the U.S. in 2023, renewable energy 21.4% while coal contributed 16.2%.
Asia’s largest economies are not about to ditch coal despite some having ambitious clean energy goals. China approved 66.7 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power capacity in 2024, with Asia’s largest economy building coal-fired power plants at a record clip as it tries to counter the effects of drought on hydropower production. In 2024, China's coal production reached a record 4.76 billion tons, a 1.3% increase from 2023, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). At the same time, 94.5 GW of new coal power projects started construction and 3.3 GW of suspended projects resumed construction in 2024, the highest level since 2015, with a large number of new coL plants slated to come online in the next 2-3 years.
"China's government has put energy security and energy transition at odds with one another. Beijing has clearly stated that coal power will still grow at a 'reasonable pace' into 2030," Greenpeace's Gao Yuhe has told Reuters.
Meanwhile, two years ago, India’s coal minister declared that the country has no intention of ditching coal from its energy mix any time soon. Addressing a parliamentary committee, minister Pralhad Joshi said that coal will continue to play an important role in India until at least 2040, referring to the fuel as an affordable source of energy for which demand has yet to peak in India.
"Thus, no transition away from coal is happening in the foreseeable future in India," Joshi said, adding the fuel will continue to play a big role until 2040 and beyond.
China Still Rules Renewable Energy
In sharp contrast, the global coal fleet outside China shrank by 9.2 GW in 2024, reinforcing China’s dominant role in shaping the future of coal power. China now accounts for 93% of global construction starts for coal power in 2024.
In yet another paradox, China remains the global leader in clean energy manufacturing.
Last year, China’s clean-energy technologies made up more than 10% of the country’s economy for the first time ever, with sales and investments hitting 13.6tn yuan ($1.9tn), exceeding the real estate sector. China’s renewable energy sales and investments dwarfed the global fossil fuel funding total of $1.12 trillion. China’s installed capacity for renewable energy, including wind and solar, reached 1,410 gigawatts last year, surpassing coal. China has become especially dominant in solar energy manufacturing, having invested 10 times more than Europe in wafer-to-solar panel production lines. China controls ~95% of the world’s polysilicon and wafers, prompting the International Energy Agency (IEA) to warn of the dangers the world is exposing itself to by relying so heavily on the Middle Kingdom for its solar needs, "The world will almost completely rely on China for the supply of key building blocks for solar panel production through 2025. This level of concentration in any global supply chain would represent a considerable vulnerability,” the agency wrote in a special report. Last year, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that China’s national underwriting for energy and other companies is creating oversupply and distorting global markets.“I will convey my belief that excess capacity poses risks not only to American workers and firms and to the global economy, but also productivity and growth in the Chinese economy, as China itself acknowledged in its National People's Congress this month," she added.
However, experts are now predicting that China will begin to lose its clean energy hegemony. According to S&P Global, China’s dominance in renewable energy is set to wane amid a weak domestic economy, slow global demand, export barriers and overcapacity. The rating firm has predicted that China’s share of solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturing would decline to 65% in 2030 from 70% in 2024, while its share of battery-cell manufacturing would drop to 61% from 80% last year.
“As we look towards 2025, manufacturing growth in China is expected to slow down in response to current overcapacity issues, leading to a more diversified cleantech manufacturing footprint by 2030,” S&P said.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Asias-Coal-Boom-is-Bad-News-For-Natural-Gas.html
Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. has started 2025 in much better fashion than how it ended last year, Chairman, President and CEO Lourenco Goncalves told analysts Feb. 25 after he and his team reported a fourth-quarter net loss of $434 million.
On a conference call discussing those results and his outlook, Goncalves pointed to lower U.S. automobile production and price cuts from several competitors—including some peers he accused of “domestic dumping”—as drivers of those losses. But he also looked to spin things forward with a more positive view: Cliffs’ acquisition last fall of Canada’s Stelco Holdings Inc. has lowered the company’s exposure to the auto sector and increased its ability to capitalize on rising spot prices, he said.
On top of that, “the market is certainly pointing in our favor” as prices for scrap and hot-rolled coil steel have risen smartly in recent weeks and automotive and other customers have beefed up their orders with Cliffs. This “significant uptick in demand” should quickly flow through to the company’s profitability, he added.
Speaking to the aggressive pricing of some competitors, Goncalves said some of the orders from auto manufacturers is business returning from peers who last year aggressively priced their contracts and cut into their profitability. Those moves, he suggested later in the call, could open the door for Cliffs—which in recent years also has acquired AK Steel and the U.S. operations of Arcelor Mittal—to bulk up further.
“Let’s see what happens. There’s a guy that says that a lot,” Goncalves said, referencing President Donald Trump, after being asked if the state of Cliffs’ balance sheet might hinder other acquisitions. “When he says that, the ones that are on the receiving end, they usually know that they’re in a bad spot. Let’s see what happens.”
Cliffs posted a fourth-quarter operating loss of $465 million on revenues of more than $4.3 billion; in the same period of 2023, those numbers were a loss of $100 million and $5.1 billion, respectively. The company shipped about 3,800 net tons of steel products during the quarter, down from a little more than 4,000 in late 2023.
Investors didn’t much care for those Q4 numbers of Goncalves’ early 2025 outlook: Around noon Eastern, shares of Cliffs (Ticker: CLF) were down more than 6% to $10.44, although that was up significantly from the day’s low of $10.01. Over the past six months, the stock has now lost about 20% of its value, trimming the company’s market capitalization to about $5.1 billion.
