All four 2023 step-out holes cut strong VMS mineralization North of 60 Mining News - October 30, 2023
Valhalla Metals Inc. Oct. 30 reported that all four step-out holes drilled this year at its Sun project in the World Class Ambler Mining District of Northwest Alaska cut significant zones of volcanogenic massive sulfide mineralization enriched with copper, zinc, silver, and gold.
Lying alongside the route of the proposed Ambler Access Project, colloquially known as the Ambler Road, Sun hosts VMS deposits similar to the Arctic Mine project being advanced by Ambler Metals about 37 miles (60 kilometers) to the west. VMS mineralization was discovered at Sun in 1966, and several companies have explored the property over the years.
The latest exploration at Sun was carried out by Andover Mining Corp. from 2007 to 2014, which culminated in an NI-43-101-compliant resource calculation that was updated for Valhalla in 2018.
According to the calculation, the Sun and adjacent SW Sun deposits host 1.71 million metric tons of indicated resource averaging 4.32% (163 million pounds) zinc, 1.48% (55.8 million lb) copper, 1.11% (42 million lb) lead, 60 grams per metric ton (3.3 million oz) silver, and 0.21 g/t (12,000 oz) gold; plus 9.02 million metric tons of inferred resource averaging 4.18% (831.3 million lb) zinc, 1.21% (239.6 million lb) copper, 1.46% (290.3 million lb) lead, 81.7 g/t (22.7 million oz) silver, and 0.25 g/t (73,000 oz) gold.
Valhalla's 2023 program at Sun included 1,104 meters of drilling in four holes designed to fill in gaps within inferred areas of the resource and test the continuation of mineralization downdip and along strike.
Highlights from this drilling include:
• 13.7 meters averaging 1.24% copper, 3.45% zinc, 0.92% lead, 55.8 g/t silver, and 0.16 g/t gold in hole Sun 23-01.
• 14.6 meters averaging 0.63% copper, 2.4% zinc, 0.61% lead, 43.8 g/t silver, and 0.11 g/t gold in hole Sun 23-02.
• 13.8 meters averaging 1.89% copper, 3.35% zinc, 1.23% lead, 94.4 g/t silver, and 0.29 g/t gold in hole Sun23-03.
Valhalla Metals Inc. Click on image for larger Sun deposit drill map.
• 21.4 meters averaging 1.31% copper, 11.03% zinc, 3.23% lead, 108.3 g/t silver, and 0.24 g/t gold in hole Sun 23-04.
"These are four great step-out holes demonstrating that the VMS system continues to depth with mineable grades and thicknesses of copper, zinc and precious metals. All we need to do is keep drilling to expand the known resources," said Valhalla Metals Chairman Rick Van Nieuwenhuyse. "If the Biden Administration wants Critical Metals, we know where to find them!"
Valhalla's 2023 program also included the construction of a new 24-man camp; relogging of six historical holes; a ground gravity survey; and lidar and orthophotography surveys over Sun and Smucker, a VMS project about 60 miles (100 kilometers) northwest of Sun.
MGL Comment - Wed 08:12, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Alaska
One of the most interesting charts in the market today is Northern Dynasty:
Readers may recall Northern Dynasty controls Pebble, and it's one of the largest copper/gold deposits known today.
Northern Dynasty: Alaska takes EPA to the Supreme Court over Veto
Again, as readers may recall, Pebble was discovered in the late 1970s and has spent ~50 years in a bruising political battle to reach development.
This 50 year chart is like a heartbeat for the Green zeitgeist:
Now it heads to the Supremes, with the state accusing Washington of 'arbitrary and capricious' decision making.
In the mid 1970’s, a three-way land exchange was negotiated between the U.S. Government, the CIRI Native Alaskan Corporation (“CIRI”) and the State of Alaska. The U.S. Government received land to create Lake Clark National Park. CIRI received land with valuable natural resources allowing it to become a profitable entity for its Alaska Native shareholders. The State of Alaska received land in the Bristol Bay region—where the Pebble Project is located—for the specific purpose of developing the mineral potential of that land. The EPA veto is the U.S. Government reneging on that deal. Both the U.S. Government and CIRI got the value they bargained for; if the EPA veto is not withdrawn, the U.S. Government has taken back the value the State of Alaska bargained for.”
My guess is that Alaska wins this case, and that puts Washington in a dilemma, either they must withdraw the EPA veto, or pay compensation to the landowners (Alaska, and Northern Dynasty) for the impact of the veto, and that's billions.
This is really interesting.
We now have in the Energy patch an implied $200tn bill to reach Netzero, when the bond market is screaming foul!
Now in the mining space we have Northern Dynasty/Alaska seeking billions in damages, and lest we not forget:
First Quantum:
First Quantum went to Panama, in good faith, negotiated an exploration and mining agreement. Built a mine. (~$7bn cost) Then we had this over the weekend:
The Gov't panicked and announced a referendum on Cobre Panama.
Discussion:
We could make a potent case that Netzero is simply not possible without large amounts of mined Copper, Nickel and Lithium, to name but a few. This year we have argued that Netzero at any price is simply not possible with a bond market demanding ~5% risk free returns when a windfarm MIGHT give you 6% returns, (on a good day, and if they work).
Now we have the most unpleasant brouhaha emerging on new mines. If the Gov't wants to stop them, then it likely has to pay damages to the owners of the land. (Northern Dynasty, First Quantum)
Further, we as resource investors now must not only deal with the vicissitudes of investing in new projects with volatile revenues, but we must face the dilemma of factoring in literally all-or-nothing risk into our estimates of net present value for political risk.
Opinion.
Investors are quite rightly going to conclude that the commodity equity sector is just too difficult and flee for the hills. The cost of capital in the industry will explode. We will end up with the entire sector looking like the coals (Whitehaven: 2x eps, 10% yield, amazing value, but its coal). Supply will be extinguished. Commodity prices will roof it. Inflation will explode.
And the ONLY place you will make money is in countries with a stellar reputation for allowing mining/oil investment. Yes, I know, the lunatic fringe is going to try and argue we can recycle everything and never have to build a new mine/Oilfield, etc.
In the war between platitudes and physics, physics remains undefeated.
(Small note: let's add the Equinor/BP/Orsted wind fiasco. Orsted just wrote off 1/3 of OUR money for less than 10% of their contracted uncompleted exposure. Did we mention VW saying EV orders were down 50%? This is politics too, the failure of the Netzero agenda).
(Bloomberg) -- BP Plc’s temporary boss gave a robust defense of the company’s strategy, batting away suggestions that he needs to follow the big oil deals done by US competitors Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp.
“We’re focused really on transition” to net zero emissions, Interim Chief Executive Officer Murray Auchincloss said on Tuesday. BP’s growth engines will be clean energy “and not the oil and gas side.”
Speaking at his first earnings presentation since taking the top job after the surprise resignation of former CEO Bernard Looney, Auchincloss reiterated his commitment to his predecessor’s plan and questioned the wisdom of acquisitions when crude prices are high.
“At $90 oil, I’m not sure it makes sense for us to pursue very many oil and gas transactions given the scale of our resource base,” Auchincloss said on a call with analysts.
In the past month, Exxon and Chevron agreed a pair of takeovers together worth more than $100 billion, both of which are intended to boost oil and gas production growth. The deals threaten to widen Big Oil’s trans-Atlantic valuation gap as investors reward the US majors for doubling down on the superior returns from fossil fuels.
“I feel very confident that we’ll be able to continue to close that gap over time,” Auchincloss said. “We’re seeing heavy US investment into the company.”
BP has adjusted its low-carbon ambitions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine — pledging to keep its oil and gas output flat for the rest of this decade. In contrast, Exxon expects to more than double its production in the Permian shale formation through the takeover of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.
Auchincloss didn’t rule out BP deals altogether.
“If I can do something counter-cyclical, I will,” he said in a separate interview with Bloomberg. “If I can find barrels that are cheap, that we think fit well into our portfolio near our operations, then I will.”
However, when it comes to the US, Auchincloss said the company didn’t need to buy additional barrels. BP has 8 billion barrels of resources to develop in in its Paleogene reservoirs of the Gulf of Mexico and 7 billion barrels from its shale business BPX Energy.
“We don’t really feel we need more acreage,” Auchincloss said. “We’re very, very happy with our position in the US.”
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/bp-doesn-t-need-to-do-big-us-oil-deals-interim-ceo-says-1.1991774
MGL Comment - Wed 09:45, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Here we go:
We've repeatedly called this diworsification.
Orsted: We've repeastedly questioned:
~Complex baroque accounting.
~Low maintenance provisions.
~Poor economics of highly levered offshore projects.
1/3rd of book equity on 1.1 gw of capacity. Orsted has 7.6 Gw operating, but 13GW under development.
As per the first estimates of the Cotton Association of India (CAI), the production is likely to be at 29.5 million bales for the cropping year 2023-2024. This is about 7-8 percent lower compared to last year, which stood at 31.9 million bales.
Share Market Live NSE
Cotton Association of India President Atul Ganatra told CNBC-TV18, “After 2008-2009, this is the lowest Indian cotton crop estimates.” He added this decline in production is largely on account of El Nino, reduction in cotton sowing area by five percent, and drop in cotton yields. The association has observed that yield will decline by 5-20 percent due to the unfavourable weather. Rajasthan is expected to take a huge hit when it comes to yields, a decline of over 40 percent.
However, Punjab will see an improvement of 50 percent in yields. Further, Gujarat will witness a drop of one million bales in production, the association estimates, followed by Maharashtra (which will be down by eight million bales). Further, in terms of percentage in sowing area, Tamil Nadu has seen the largest decline in sowing area for cotton by 80 percent, followed by Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka.
The growing decline in demand has further led to this change. Despite declining sowing area, the crop production remains unchanged for Tamil Nadu and Telangana. States like Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh are expected to witness a marginal rise in their sowing area. The association also highlighted the demand continues to outpace the supply in the country. Over the last few years, the cotton industry, especially the ginners in the country, were bleeding due to lower global cotton prices and higher domestic prices.
MGL Comment - Wed 09:40, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Cotton, one of our favourite crisis indicators is quiet. No signal here.
HOUSTON (Reuters) - Energy pipeline operator Enterprise Products Partners will expand its natural gas liquids (NGLs) operations, adding a pipeline from Texas' Permian Basin, new plants to process natural gas, and converting an oil pipeline in Texas to NGLs, officials said on Tuesday.
The energy infrastructure provider has sharpened its focus on NGLs that are used to make plastics and gasoline on rising global demand and a boom in U.S. exports.
"We need NGL takeaway right now," Executive Vice President Christian Nelly told analysts and investors on an earnings call.
The Houston-based company posted quarterly earnings of 60 cents per share, below analysts' consensus estimates of 63 cents. Enterprise Products shares were down 0.8% at $26.22 at midday on Tuesday.
Enterprise will build a 550-mile (885 km) pipeline with the capacity to transport up to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) of NGLs from West Texas shale fields to Houston. The pipeline, expected to be wholly owned by Enterprise, could begin operation in the first half of 2025, it said.
It also plans to build two natural gas processing plants and a fractionation unit to separate the various components of NGLs.
Enterprise has begun initial steps to convert in December the Seminole Pipeline, which carries up to 210,000 bpd of crude oil, to transport NGLs.
This pipeline, which had carried NGLs in past years, has been shipping crude oil since 2019. The company's Midland-to-ECHO 2 pipeline, which moves crude oil from the Permian Basin of West Texas to Houston, was created by converting a segment of the Seminole pipeline.
The company said its deepwater oil-export project, Sea Port Oil Terminal, is likely to receive a license to begin construction by year-end.
The company said it expects 2024 capital investments for expansion projects between $3 billion and $3.5 billion, including the new projects, compared with estimates for $3 billion in spending this year.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/enterprise-products-doubles-down-gas-161653634.html
MGL Comment - Wed 10:25, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
"We need NGL takeaway right now,"
More condensate. More unmeasured liquids, more uncertainty in the 'official numbers'.
The Saudi Aramco oil refinery in Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia, May 21, 2018. AHMED JADALLAH / REUTERS
Lhe worst is never sure, but… But the price of a barrel of oil could reach 157 dollars (148 euros), above its record of 148 dollars, in August 2008. This is one of the scenarios established by the World Bank in the event of an escalation of the conflict on Israel’s borders, until now confined to the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon. Such a regional conflict would amplify the effects of the restrictive policy of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) supported by Russia and those of the war in Ukraine, which caused the most violent shock in the last fifty years on commodity markets.
Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Oil: Hamas attack on Israel fuels fears around Iran
Black gold prices have only increased by 6% since October 7, the day of the deadly incursion of Hamas terrorists into Israeli territory, indicates the Washington institution in the “Commodity Markets Outlook”, its report. annual report on raw materials subtitled “In the shadow of geopolitical risks” and published Monday October 30.
This shock would come from a “supply disruption” from the Middle East, which accounts for 40% of global production. Prices would reach $93 to $102 if supply is reduced by 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day; from 109 to 121 dollars, with 3 million to 5 million barrels less; between 140 and 157 dollars in the event of a loss of 6 million to 8 million barrels, a shock comparable to the Arab oil embargo of 1973.
Pure political reasons
The report highlights that the global economy, even sluggish, would be “in a much better position than in the 1970s to face a major oil shock”. Since that time, countries have in fact reduced by more than 50% the quantity of crude oil needed to generate 1 dollar of gross domestic product, diversified their suppliers, and found new sources of energy. The reference scenario is reassuring: “Prices are expected to reach, on average, $90 per barrel this [quatrième] quarter, before falling back to 81 dollars on average [en 2024] “, due to slowing growth.
Read also: Article reserved for our subscribers Embargo on Russian oil: circumvented, sanctions should be strengthened
Establishing such scenarios is part of the World Bank’s missions. Because behind the surge in oil – an obsessive fear of rich countries – lies the surge in agricultural and food prices. High in many developing countries, where 700 million people are undernourished, inflation is forcing their leaders to urgently resolve the problem. And to restrict, sometimes for purely political reasons, the export of rice, cereals and fertilizers, fueling price volatility and food insecurity. The World Bank does not name culprits. They are known: Russia, Ukraine, India, Turkey, Argentina…
MGL Comment - Wed 10:11, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
But the price of a barrel of oil could reach 157 dollars (148 euros), above its record of 148 dollars, in August 2008. This is one of the scenarios established by the World Bank
From the World Bank? Really?
By the way, watch Egypt, if there is fallout from Gaza, it is Egypt that has risk now.
FRANKFURT/DUESSELDORF, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Germany's Uniper (UN01.DE), which was bailed out during Europe's energy crisis, swung to a nine-month net profit of 9.77 billion euros ($10.35 billion), boosted by falling gas prices that mean the group no longer expects to make a loss on its purchases.
The result reported on Tuesday compares with a net loss of 40.3 billion euros in the same period last year, when ballooning costs to replace Russian gas triggered a crisis that required the company to be rescued by the government.
Uniper was the biggest European corporate casualty of the energy crisis, caused by the suspension of Russian gas deliveries via the critical Nord Stream pipeline, which was later sabotaged.
Shares in the utility and gas trader, a long-time client of Gazprom (GAZP.MM) before Russia's invasion of Ukraine, were up 5.3% at 0853 GMT.
The results come a week after Uniper detailed its outlook for 2023, expecting adjusted operating profit (EBIT) of 6 billion to 7 billion euros and full-year adjusted net profit of 4 billion to 5 billion euros.
"This result and the outlook are literally extraordinary, and I don't expect that we'll see earnings figures of this magnitude in the next few years, although we're looking ahead with optimism," finance chief Jutta Doenges said.
A person stands at escalators near the Uniper logo at the utility's firm headquarters in Duesseldorf, Germany, July 8, 2022. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
The strong nine-month results are essentially due to the mark-down of derivatives Uniper uses to hedge its positions in the gas market, where a massive decline in prices has dissolved forward losses initially expected through 2024.
At the end of September, liabilities tied to derivatives, which grow or shrink in line with gas price developments, stood at 26 billion euros, down from 216 billion a year earlier.
The favourable market development effectively brings the size of Uniper's bail-out down to 25 billion euros in equity and government credit lines, less than half the amount initially expected.
The company can now focus on how to return to the market after Berlin took a 99% stake as part of the deal.
Doenges confirmed that Berlin must detail to Brussels by the end of the year how it plans to cut its stake to 25% plus one share by the end of 2028, as required by the European Union.
($1 = 0.9438 euros)
MGL Comment - Wed 09:03, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Utilities are uninvestable in the current regime.
When I invest in a Utility, I want a quiet life. I agree a fixed rate of return for my capital in exchange for a govt contract on the revenues. (simplifying, bear with me). What I do not expect is to take all the risk when a government policy blows up and I lose 20 year profits in one year.
This effectively skew the risk reward in an impossible direction.
Energy consultancy Cornwall Insight said that demand for gas in China had increased by about 6% so far this year.
Last year China was still going through Covid-19 lockdowns, pushing down the country’s economy and its thirst for energy.
It meant there was less competition as European countries cast around for an alternative to the Russian pipeline gas which was shut off as the Kremlin decided to try to conquer Kyiv in February 2022.
The UK has several dropping-off points for LNG ships, including a site in Grain, Kent (Gareth Fuller/PA)
Most of the world’s gas is moved by pipeline. But there are also ships that cool down gas so much that it becomes liquid – so called liquid natural gas – and transport it around the world.
But this year Europe will have to compete with the added demand from China for this liquid natural gas (LNG) and it could face weather that is colder than last year’s rather mild winter, which could turn up demand.
“In a landscape of increasing global competition, Europe’s LNG supply faces growing uncertainty,” said Dr Matthew Chadwick, lead research analyst at Cornwall Insight.
“A multitude of factors, from weather patterns to surging demand in Asia, leave Europe open to potential gas shortages if it places its faith in another high-temperature, low-competition winter.”
He called on Europeans to sign long-term contracts, rather than just buy the LNG as it is needed.
“As China’s economic recovery drives up gas demand and worldwide events send prices skyrocketing, Europe can no longer cling to the illusion of on-demand LNG.
“To secure gas supply this winter, they must make a concerted effort to shred their reliance on short-term, risky LNG purchases.
“It is crucial they focus on building strong partnerships, improving infrastructure and securing supply chains, so Europe can safeguard its energy security while working towards its longer-term decarbonisation goals.”
MGL Comment - Wed 09:00, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Europe’s LNG supply faces growing uncertainty,
Petulant nonsense.
Europe has replaced Russia, which was catastrophically unreliable with North America, the Middle East and Australia. More suppliers, that's a decrease in particular risk, and, dare I say it, more reliable suppliers.
A Toyota logo is seen during the New York International Auto Show, in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., April 5, 2023. REUTERS/David 'Dee' Delgado/File Photo Acquire Licensing Rights
Oct 31 (Reuters) - Toyota Motor (7203.T) said on Tuesday it would boost investment by $8 billion and add about 3,000 jobs at its electric-vehicle battery manufacturing plant in North Carolina, accelerating the Japanese automaker's push to electrify its lineup.
The company, which plans to have electrified options for all its models available by 2025, said the latest move will bring its total investment in the plant to about $13.9 billion and jobs to more than 5,000.
Legacy automakers such as Ford Motor (F.N) and General Motors (GM.N) have been racing to ramp-up their EV output and close the gap with market leader Tesla (TSLA.O), although both Detroit-based companies have scaled back their investment plans after reaching expensive new contract agreements with the United Auto Workers union.
Toyota did not disclose a breakup of the investment and was not immediately available for further comment.
Unlike global peers, Toyota had earlier bet on hybrids and hydrogen-fuel cell vehicles rather than battery EVs, but the world's top-selling automaker this year announced a pivot, with plans to commercialize advanced batteries and adopt die-casting technology pioneered by Tesla.
Other companies such as Samsung SDI Co (006400.KS), Panasonic and Chrysler-parent Stellantis NV (STLAM.MI) also plan to set up base in the U.S. to develop their battery plants.
Toyota's North Carolina facility is set to begin operations in 2025 and will be the company's first automotive battery plant globally.
It will have six battery production lines, four supporting hybrid vehicles such as the Prius, and two additional lines to support battery EVs.
NORTH CAROLINA HUB
North Carolina is emerging as a leading hub for electric vehicle and battery manufacturing, with new investments planned by companies ranging from Redwood Materials to Vietnam's Vinfast .
"North Carolina's transition to a clean energy economy is bringing better-paying jobs that will support our families and communities for decades to come," said North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper on Tuesday, following news of Toyota's increased investment.
The state will also host a $650 million battery plant that India's Epsilon Advanced Materials (EAM) plans to open in 2026, the company announced last week, and the facility could eventually supply up to 1.1 million electric vehicles in the United States.
MGL Comment - Wed 10:05, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Tuesday it would boost investment by $8 billion
This one project is 40% of Toyota's capex, yet supports less than 1% of their sales volume.
File photo: A view of a streetside solar panel in Embu, Kenya.
AP
BENGALURU, India: An alliance of nations that push for more solar power worldwide are set to announce nearly $35 million for projects such as mini grids and rooftop installations, mainly in Africa, according to the group's director general.
At the sidelines of the group’s annual meeting in New Delhi on Tuesday, Ajay Mathur said the International Solar Alliance expect a $25 million investment from the Indian government, alongside its own cash injection of $10 million for smaller solar power infrastructure.
Officials from 116 nations are discussing how to harness solar power to ramp up clean energy use and reduce reliance on planet-warming fossil fuels at the gathering, which runs until Thursday.
The United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, as well as more than 30 African countries are members of the ISA. China, the market leader in solar energy, is not yet part of the alliance.
India’s power minister and ISA president R. K. Singh said that the alliance's funding mechanism, known as the Global Solar Facility, is aiming to raise $100 million to help deploy solar projects around the world.
Singh said that because of a lack of investment so far, Africa "has not been able to leverage its potential” in terms of solar power.
Singh said the alliance is focused on getting the 733 million people worldwide currently without electricity hooked onto renewables. Then, he said at a press conference, "we are certain investments will start flowing into Africa.”
He added that exponentially increasing renewable energy capacity globally will be a key point of discussion at the upcoming United Nations climate conference scheduled to begin in Dubai in a month’s time.
Chrysoula Zacharopoulou, France's junior minister for development and international partnerships, said the country "will support all commitments, particularly financial, to accelerate the global energy transition.”
India and France co-lead the International Solar Alliance, which was formed after the 2015 climate talks in Paris.
Global investment in solar energy surpassed $300 billion in 2022, but only 15% of that went to developing countries, according to an ISA report published last year. Investments in clean energy in Sub-Saharan Africa dropped 44% between 2015 and 2021.
The ISA said it helped develop one gigawatt of solar energy in the last six years and is working on helping install 9.5 gigawatts of solar energy in 55 countries in the Global South, enough to power up to six million homes in developing countries.
MGL Comment - Wed 07:04, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
International Solar Alliance expect a $25 million investment from the Indian government, alongside its own cash injection of $10 million for smaller solar power infrastructure.
Charity, a generation ago, was feeding the starving, and generally funded by the OECD great and good, eg Live Aid. But here we have India helping build solar in Africa.
Is it the case that sustainability has reached the top of the agenda because we have solved most causes of death?
ADELAIDE, Australia--The world's biggest mining company is doubling down on a bet that potash, a key fertilizer ingredient, will be in high demand in the decades ahead to help feed a growing global population.
BHP Group on Tuesday approved a $4.9 billion project to further expand the Jansen potash project that it is building in Canada's Saskatchewan province. That investment will transform it into one of the world's largest potash mines, doubling annual production capacity to roughly 8.5 million metric tons, said Mike Henry, BHP's chief executive.
The project's approval illustrates BHP's confidence in the outlook for potash, Henry said. It also reflects a shift by the mining giant away from fossil fuels to investments in commodities including copper and nickel that it expects will benefit from population growth, rising living standards and the transition to a low-carbon economy. BHP has been selling coal mines and last year offloaded its oil-and-gas unit.
"Potash, used in fertilizers, will be essential for food security and more sustainable farming," said Henry.
Potash is one of three major fertilizer ingredients, alongside nitrogen and phosphate. BHP says demand for potash could double by the late 2040s to become a $50 billion market. Henry has previously said mining at Jansen could last about 100 years.
Potash is seen by farmers as an attractive resource because it tends to boost yields, aid in drought tolerance and improve crop quality. It is also used in glass manufacturing, aluminum recycling and fireworks, among other applications.
The Jansen development should position BHP as a top potash supplier globally, Henry said Tuesday. The company is already pouring $5.7 billion into the first stage of the project, after spending about $4.5 billion on earlier preparation work.
The first stage is 32% complete and initial production is expected in late 2026, the company said. The second stage should enter production some time in the year through June, 2029.
The newly approved project has an internal rate of return of between 15% and 18%, based on consensus price estimates, and an expected payback period of about six years from first production, said BHP.
In the longer term, BHP could consider two further expansions that would raise annual production capacity to up to 17 million tons a year, it said.
MGL Comment - Wed 07:42, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
BHP says demand for potash could double by the late 2040s to become a $50 billion market. Henry has previously said mining at Jansen could last about 100 years.
BHP adds 8m mt to a 40m mt market:
As usual I really struggle with consensus forecast here. In 2000 Potash consumption was 28m mt, by 2020, 38m mt during a period when world population grew at the fastest rate recorded:
Statista is now claiming a +10m mt increase in 10 years, ie double the growth rate of the previous 20, when global population growth has basically collapsed.
Excuse my scepticism.
Tight Cattle Supplies Continue To Drive Market
This is Matt Rice with the Ag Information Network and today’s Market Line Report for Tuesday. Tight cattle supplies continue to drive the Beef Market and Cash Cattle. Let’s go to Virginia McGathey with the CME Group to hear more.
Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat prices for Dec. closed the day Dn 9 ½, to finish at 5-66. Dec. Corn was Dn 2 ½, to finish the day at 4-78 ¼. Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat prices for Dec. were Up 2, to settle at 6-45.
Portland prices for Club Wheat with 10 ½ % Protein was Unch, ranging from 6-95 to 7-55. Soft white wheat with 10 ½ % Protein prices for Dec. were Unch, ranging 6-90 to 7-35. Hard Red Winter Wheat with 11 ½ percent Protein prices for Dec. were Up 2, ranging from 6-85 to 6-95. DNS wheat with 14 % protein, prices for Jan. were Dn 1 ¼, to settle at 8-06 ¾.
Live Cattle for Dec. were Up $1.02 ½, closing at 183.25. Jan. Feeder Cattle were Up $1.17 ½, to finish the day at 236.87 ½. Nov. Class III milk was Dn $.11, to settle at 17.29.
https://www.aginfo.net/report/57939/Market-Line/Tight-Cattle-Supplies-Continue-To-Drive-Market
MGL Comment - Wed 07:34, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Cattle:
MUMBAI, Oct 31 (Reuters) - India's sugar production is likely to fall 8% to 33.7 million metric tons in the 2023/24 marketing year, which starts on Oct. 1, a leading trade body said on Tuesday, as lower rainfall in key producing states could dent yields.
Lower sugar production could lead the world's second-largest producer of sweetener to refrain from allocating export quotas and support global prices , that are trading near multi-year highs.
"Sugar production for 2023/24 without considering diversion towards ethanol has been estimated at around 33.7 million tons, against 36.6 tons estimated for 2022/23," the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
In August, ISMA had forecast sugar production of 36.2 million tons in the current season.
The trade body did not provide an estimate for net sugar production after the diversion of sucrose for ethanol production, but it stated that the output would exceed the country's annual consumption of 27.85 million tons.
The diversion of sugar towards ethanol will be estimated only after the government declares the annual ethanol procurement price, the ISMA said.
Sugar mills diverted 4.1 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in the last marketing year and the similar allocation could bring down the new season's output to 29.6 million tons, said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
"The impact of the dry weather in Maharashtra and Karnataka is quite evident now. There won't be enough surplus for exports, and the government is unlikely to allocate export quotas," the dealer said.
Government sources told Reuters in August that the South Asian country would ban mills from exporting sugar in the season beginning in October, halting shipments for the first time in seven years, as a lack of rain had cut cane yields.
In the last season that ended on Sept. 30, India allowed mills to export only 6.2 million metric tons of sugar, after permitting them to sell a record 11.1 million tonnes in 2021/22.
India earlier this month extended its restriction on sugar exports beyond October.
MGL Comment - Wed 06:47, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
India's sugar production is likely to fall 8% to 33.7 million metric tons in the 2023/24 marketing year
Meanwhile in Holland:
Chrysos Corporation has announced that it has forged a partnership with one of the world’s largest gold miners, Barrick Gold, and fast-growing international laboratory business MSALABS, to deliver its PhotonAssayTM technology to Barrick mine sites across four continents.
The partnership will commence with the deployment of three MSALABS contracted PhotonAssayTM units to the Nevada Gold Mines (NGM) complex in the United States of America (USA), with the potential deployment of up to 10 more PhotonAssayTM units to other Barrick projects by the end of 2025, subject to finalising due diligence. The partnership is an extension of an already successful relationship between the three companies at Barrick’s Bulyanhulu mine in Tanzania and its Kibali operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
The single largest gold-mining complex in the world, NGM is 61.5% owned and operated by Barrick, and 38.5% owned by the world’s largest gold miner, Newmont. The assets at the complex include 10 underground mines, 12 surface mines as well as multiple related facilities.
Chrysos Managing Director and CEO Dirk Treasure commented: “Barrick’s global adoption of our technology is a watershed moment for us, underlining PhotonAssay’s superiority to outdated and hazardous fire assay methods. Together with the team at MSALABS, we look forward to bringing the same operational and environmental benefits being delivered at Bulyanhulu and Kibali in Africa to more of Barrick’s gold mines.”
Striking a similar tone, Barrick Mineral Resource Management & Evaluations Executive Simon Bottoms, said: “PhotonAssay has already been delivering faster, safer, more accurate and environmentally-friendly analysis to our African operations, so we are more than pleased to broaden the partnership with Chrysos and MSALABS to take advantage of this innovative technology in our global operations.”
On leveraging PhotonAssay’s previous successes Stuart Thomson, MSALABS CEO, enthused “This partnership reflects the teamwork that’s driven the highly successful integration of PhotonAssay technology into Barrick’s mine sites since the first hybrid lab commissioned in Bulyanhulu in 2021. MSALABS’ holistic approach including design, construction and process components has resulted in seamless transitions from fire assay to PhotonAssay at Bulyanhulu and Kibali. Development has continued with copper assaying and innovations in sample logistics and robotics, extending the capability, safety and productivity of the entire system.”
MGL Comment - Wed 10:23, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
PhotonAssay vs FireAssay:
Replacing a centuries-old fire assay
PhotonAssay is a chemical-free, non‑destructive technology that supersedes the traditional fire‑assay method for measuring gold concentrations in samples.
Fire assay is a fiddly, complex and hazardous process, using toxic chemicals and requiring sample fusion at temperatures up to 1200 degrees centigrade.
Due to its laborious nature, turnaround times for analysis using the centuries-old technique could often be weeks.
Chrysos's PhotonAssay sees a sample loaded into a barcoded jar, which is placed on an automated conveyor.
High-powered X-rays hit the sample and 'excite' the nuclei of any gold atoms present.
The unique signatures from the activated atoms are picked up by the system's highly sensitive detectors, enabling accurate analysis of precious metal concentration.
The analysis is complete in as little as two minutes.
Having access to almost real-time information has the potential to increase gold recovery during processing by 1% to 3%, significantly raising the profitability of mining operations – an efficiency estimated to be worth at least $2 billion per year to the global gold industry.
LONDON : The Shanghai copper trading arm of China's Amer International Group is closing its order book due to financial pressure from the country's troubled property sector, a huge consumer of the metal, five sources with knowledge of the matter said.
Copper traders in China have come under pressure in the past year from a crisis in its property sector, which is estimated to account for roughly a quarter of an economy that accounts for half of global copper demand.
The sources said Amer's Shanghai trading unit, Arc Resources, was winding up its order book, and that the copper trader had terminated many contracts with existing customers and suppliers for the remainder of 2023.
Amer International did not respond to calls and emails requesting comment. Arc Resources could not be reached.
Arc Resources buys copper for its parent and traded 300,000 tons of copper last year, one of the sources said, making it one of China's largest traders of the metal. The country is this year forecast to consume some 13 million metric tons of copper.
Amer International, a conglomerate with revenues of more than US$90 billion last year, owns hundreds of copper rod mills across China that have a nameplate capacity to process over 2 million tonnes of copper cathodes annually.
Two of the sources with knowledge of the matter said less than 40per cent of Amer's capacity is being utilised.
One of the sources told Reuters he recently received a request from Arc Resources to help find buyers for Africa-origin copper cathodes that the Amer unit used to sell to China.
A source supplying Amer's copper rod mill in north west China also received a request from the company to divert its contractual tonnages of copper for November and December.
Arc Resources traded approximately 500,000 tonnes of copper cathode in 2017, mainly on the spot market.
MGL Comment - Wed 09:32, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
China's Amer International Group is closing its order book due to financial pressure from the country's troubled property sector,
Oct 31 (Reuters) - Copper prices came under pressure on Tuesday as demand concerns resurfaced after weak manufacturing data from top consumer China spurred selling, while a softer dollar provided some support.
Benchmark copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was little changed at $8,135 a metric ton at 1213 GMT after falling as far as $8,089 a ton.
It hit a four-week high of $8,231 on Monday due to recent signs of economic stabilisation in China. Copper prices are on course for their third monthly decline.
However, China's manufacturing sector unexpectedly shrank in October, underlined the daunting task facing policymakers as they try to revitalise economic growth heading into the end of the year and 2024.
Both new export and import orders contracted for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting that manufacturers were struggling to find buyers overseas and ordering fewer components used in finished goods for re-export.
"The main driver for base metals is still China demand," said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading, adding that fresh China stimulus announced last week had helped boost metals prices.
China last week approved one trillion-yuan ($137 billion) in sovereign bond issuance and passed a bill allowing local governments to front-load part of their 2024 bond quotas to support investment.
"Today's data show the growth struggle of China. Monetary tools aren't working and traditional fiscal tools have reached their limits," said Sandeep Daga, a director at analysis company Metal Intelligence Centre.
Traders said falling stocks of copper in LME approved warehouses MCUSTX-TOTAL, those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange CU-STX-SGH and in CME registered warehouses HG-STXTW-STX were helping sentiment.
They are also awaiting a decision on U.S. rates from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday which could influence dollar direction. FRX/
A lower U.S. currency potentially helps bolster demand for dollar-priced base metals for holders of other currencies.
Aluminium CMAL3 slipped 0.3% to $2,258, zinc CMZN3 fell 0.9% to $2,444, lead CMPB3 ceded 0.3% to $2,115, tin CMSN3 was down 0.8% at $24,805 and nickel CMNI3 retreated 1.2% to $18,260 a ton.
(Reporting by Julian Luk; additional reporting by Mai Nguyen; editing by Kirsten Donovan)
((julian.luk@thomsonreuters.com))
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/metals-china-manufacturing-data-weighs-on-copper-market-sentiment
MGL Comment - Wed 09:15, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Briefly, let's discuss Hon Hai, this is a follow-up to an earlier analysis when we pointed out that Hon Hai's Chinese workforce is dropping like a stone. Hon-Hai, or Foxconn, is one of Apple's leading suppliers.
As you can clearly see, China's contribution to iPhones has dropped precipitously from 4.7% to 2% over the last 4 models.
Technology billionaire Terry Gou will seek Taiwan’s presidency once again, the candidate announced on Wednesday.
Gou, the founder of Apple supplier Hon Hai Precision, will compete for the nomination of the opposition Kuomintang this year, the Central News Agency reported. The Kuomintang, or KMT, is known in English as the Nationalist Party,
"Taiwan's current wealth is built on stability across the Taiwan Strait, regional mutual benefit, and global prosperity," Gou was reported to have said. "As a pivotal part of the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China and an important economic link between the U.S. and China, Taiwan has the ability to resolve the conflicts as long as the country has a leader who has a vision to pursue and maintain peace."
But here's the reaction from China:
BEIJING/TAIPEI -- Chinese authorities are investigating mainland bases of Taiwanese contract manufacturer Hon Hai Precision Industry, known as Foxconn, on tax and other compliance grounds, according to state media.
The Communist Party-affiliated Global Times reported Sunday that Chinese authorities have conducted tax audits on "key enterprises" of Foxconn in Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces, and that the Ministry of Natural Resources has investigated land use at such bases in Henan and Hubei provinces.
And here is the stock:
Point: the primary tide, trade withdrawing from China is merciless.
① In September 2023, there were rumors that aluminium smelters in Yunnan may face output cuts. However, ample water supply from major hydropower stations and abundant supply of thermal and new energy power allowed aluminium producers to maintain stable operation. Three aluminium producers basically resumed operation and were operating at full capacity in August, while the other one has not yet resumed large-scale production. By the end of September, aluminium operating capacity in the province had reached around 5.65 million mt.
② On October 27, 2023, according to SMM research, relevant departments of Yunnan Province and aluminium-related departments jointly met to discuss the power consumption of the industry during the dry season. Sources revealed that aluminium smelters in the province may reduce capacity by 22% in view of the industrial electricity demand next year and long dry season. How much production to be cut by each aluminium plant will be confirmed in the following week.
③On October 30, 2023, SMM learned that the proportion of aluminium production reduction in Yunnan has been basically determined. The four aluminium smelters will reduce capacity by 9%-40%, and some may lower productions soon. The total capacity reduction is estimated to be 1.15 million mt.
Aluminium output in Yunnan reached 3.09 million mt in January-September, down 3.1% YoY. As of now, the total operating capacity of aluminium is over 5.65 million mt, with an average daily output of about 15,000 mt. If this production reduction is implemented quickly according to news ③, the daily output will drop to around 12,000 mt. In the fourth quarter, aluminium output in China may be about 10.67 million mt, down 0.37% QoQ. In a word, the implementation of production reduction in Yunnan will exert impact on domestic aluminium supply in the first half of 2024.
MGL Comment - Wed 07:19, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
SMM learned that the proportion of aluminium production reduction in Yunnan has been basically determined. The four aluminium smelters will reduce capacity by 9%-40%, and some may lower productions soon.
Yunnan, with its excess hydro, is now the centre of China's renewable Aluminium industry. But now we must deal with a new factor, seasonality of output.
5.65 million mt,
Total Chinese capacity= 45m mt.
Here's China Hongqiao, which has shifted 1.5m mt of coal fired capacity out of Shandong into Yunnan.
BEIJING, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Singapore iron ore edged down on Tuesday, as caution dominated among traders after the latest Chinese manufacturing data missed expectations.
The benchmark November iron ore SZZFX3 on the Singapore Exchange was 0.1% lower at $121.6 a metric ton, as of 0847 GMT.
However, the January iron ore on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) DCIOcv1 ended daytime trading up 0.34% at 898.5 yuan ($122.80) a ton, after some downward correction earlier.
China's manufacturing activity unexpectedly contracted in October, purchasing managers' index (PMI) data showed, casting a cloud over recent indicators that showed a nascent recovery in the world's second-largest economy.
The steel industry PMI slid to 45.6 in October from 45.8 previously, data from China Logistics Information Centre showed, forecasting further contraction in steel output in November, citing a typical production restriction in winter and pressure from narrowing margins.
Fear of intervention from government bodiesfollowing a rally in pricesalso sent further downward pressure to the market, analysts said.
"Demand remained weak with the market still facing the 'strong expectation and weak reality' and whether there will be an upward momentum later depends on how the stimulus landed," analysts at Galaxy Futures said in a note.
There are growing supply risks, analysts at ING bank said in a note, pointing to the approval of industrial action plans among nearly 350 BHP BHP.AX iron ore rail workers in Australia that could include work stoppages of up to 24 hours.
Other steelmaking ingredients recorded losses, with coking coal DJMcv1 and coke DCJcv1 on the DCE down 0.6% and 0.33%, respectively.
Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were mixed. Rebar SRBcv1 edged up 0.21%, hot-rolled coil SHHCcv1 was little changed, while stainless steel SHSScv1 declined 1.02%, and wire rod SWRcv1 shed 0.95%.
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/singapore-iron-ore-eases-slightly-amid-caution-on-china-data
MGL Comment - Wed 09:42, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
The steel industry PMI slid to 45.6 in October from 45.8 previously,
Agera will be based in Minas Gerais, Brazil, and will receive sand from tailings generated by Vale's iron ore operations in the state, and promote its commercialisation and distribution.
Vale says the new company will also invest in research and development of new solutions.
The miner says it started producing 'Sustainable Sand' in 2021 after seven years of research. Since, ~900,000t have been sent to construction and road paving. Vale expects to sell 1Mt in 2023 and 2.1Mt by 2024.
Established a year ago, under the name of Co-Log, Agera projects annual sales revenue of $3.6mln by 2023. It has seven customer service points and stocks material in the states of Minas Gerais and Espírito Santo.
The company has contracts with seven road hauliers and three rail freight providers and currently serves more than 80 manufacturing units in seven segments: concrete, precast, mortar, artifacts, cement, textured paints and pavement. It is looking to expand operations into other applications, such as red ceramics.
Vale explains that the sand comes from the tailings after the wet processing of iron ore - currently less than 30% of their operation. These are basically silican and iron oxides, Vale notes.
The sand has been produced at the Brucutu mine in Minas Gerais since 2021. Last year, the company began small-scale production at the Viga mine and in the coming months it plans to start production at the Cauê mine, in Itabira.
The mining company says that in Brazil, around 330Mt of sand are used every year in construction and industrial processes, and that extracting it from riverbeds often exceeds natural replenishment.
According to Vale, in 2022, the University of Queensland and the University of Geneva released a study that found sand from iron ore production can reduce both 'predatory extraction' of sand and mining waste.
https://www.iom3.org/resource/vale-launches-brazilian-sand-business.html
MGL Comment - Wed 08:04, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
'Sustainable Sand'
annual sales revenue of $3.6mln by 2023.
Just not material.
Cleveland-Cliffs Announces Price Increase for Hot Rolled, Cold Rolled and Coated Steel Products
CLEVELAND--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) today announced that it is increasing current spot market base prices for all carbon hot rolled, cold rolled and coated steel products, effective immediately with all new orders. Cliffs’ minimum base price for hot rolled steel is now $900 per net ton.
About Cleveland-Cliffs Inc.
Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America. Founded in 1847 as a mine operator, Cliffs also is the largest manufacturer of iron ore pellets in North America. The Company is vertically integrated from mined raw materials, direct reduced iron, and ferrous scrap to primary steelmaking and downstream finishing, stamping, tooling, and tubing. Cleveland-Cliffs is the largest supplier of steel to the automotive industry in North America and serves a diverse range of other markets due to its comprehensive offering of flat-rolled steel products. Headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio, Cleveland-Cliffs employs approximately 27,000 people across its operations in the United States and Canada.
View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231031380335/en/
MGL Comment - Wed 10:19, Nov 01 2023Back to Top
Cat reported this this week:
By region, sales in North America rose by 31% due to higher sales volume and favorable price.
It's becoming clear that the IRA factory boom has legs.
Is there a trade in Nucor here?
