A policy change could drive billions into a soaring market
China has launched a pilot program allowing insurers to invest in gold for the first time, potentially unlocking billions of dollars in new investments in the precious metal. A Bloomberg report highlighted that the move could further bolster gold prices, which have recently reached record highs.
Under the new policy, 10 insurance firms – including leading companies PICC Property & Casualty Co. and China Life Insurance Co. – can allocate up to 1% of their assets to bullion. This shift, effective as of last Friday, could translate into an estimated 200 billion yuan (US$27.4 billion) in gold investments, according to a report from Minsheng Securities Co.
Gold has been one of the strongest-performing commodities in recent years, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and substantial purchases by central banks, including China’s. Additionally, policy shifts in the US, particularly under the second term of US President Donald Trump, have influenced global markets, prompting traders to adjust their strategies in response to potential disruptions in trade policies.
Bloomberg noted that the change in China’s investment policy may signal a response to limited investment options in the country amid economic challenges. With China experiencing a property downturn and an overall economic slowdown, authorities may be seeking alternative assets for stability.
“Insurance companies lack options for mid- and long-term assets with stable yields,” analysts at Guotai Junan Securities, led by Liu Xinqi, told Bloomberg. While gold traditionally does not offer consistent cash returns, it is now the first commodity explicitly permitted for insurance investments in China. Previously, Chinese insurers were largely restricted to assets with stable income streams, such as bonds and stocks.
Despite the potential influx of funds, demand from insurers may not be immediate.
“We are more likely to see accumulations when price rallies take a pause,” said Yuxuan Tang, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Private Bank. Institutional investors, including insurers, tend to be price-sensitive due to their focus on returns, she added.
OPEC+ has not discussed delaying the increase in its oil supply currently planned to begin in April, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday.
Earlier in the day, reports emerged that the OPEC+ group, comprising OPEC and a dozen non-OPEC producers led by Russia, is mulling over postponing the gradual increase in oil supply.
The alliance is considering pushing back the start of the easing of the cuts despite calls from U.S. President Donald Trump that OPEC needs to lower oil prices, Bloomberg reported on Monday, quoting OPEC+ delegates.
The OPEC+ group is divided on how to move forward with the planned easing of the production cuts, one of the delegates told Bloomberg.
Another delegate said that the oil market remains in too fragile a state to bring back production now.
OPEC+ has not discussed delaying the planned increase in supply, Russia’s Novak said today.
“We recently held a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) at which we did not take any decision on that matter,” Novak was quoted as saying by Russian media.
April “is still the case” for OPEC+ to start bringing supply back, Novak said, adding that no other discussions have been held.
At the JMMC meeting early this month, OPEC+ said that it would not change its current plan to begin gradually unwinding the cuts from April.
The JMMC, the panel that takes stock of oil market developments and proposes courses of action to the ministers of the OPEC+ group, doesn’t take decisions on production levels—these are taken by the OPEC+ ministerial meetings.
At the previous ministerial gathering in December, the alliance decided to delay the start of the easing of the 2.2 million bpd cuts to April 2025, from January 2025. The group also extended the period in which it would unwind all these cuts into the following year, until September 2026.
(Ecofin Agency) - Copper is essential for building and operating data centers, which are expanding rapidly due to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). This increased demand for copper adds to the already growing needs related to the energy transition.
BHP, the mining giant, has projected that global copper demand will surge to 50 million tonnes by 2050, a significant increase from the current 32 million tonnes. The firm unveiled the forecast while disclosing its half-year results on February 18, 2025. According to BHP, data centers will significantly contribute to the surge. It anticipates the centers’ copper demand to grow 500%, from 500,000 tonnes now to 3 million tonnes in 2050.
Copper is crucial for various components of data centers, including electrical networks, printed circuit boards, and cooling systems. These facilities are vital for supporting AI infrastructure. Bloomberg Intelligence noted that AI could contribute to a 3% annual increase in copper demand in North America alone by 2035.
Consulting firm McKinsey predicts that global demand for data center capacity may grow between 19% and 22% annually from 2023 to 2030. By the end of this decade, this could mean an annual capacity demand of between 171 to 219 gigawatts.
The rising digital sector demand raises concerns about potential copper shortages. Analysts warn that mining production may not keep up with this demand due to current low copper prices, which deter investment in exploration and new mines.
BHP has stated that for future mine supply to be stimulated, prices must rise above those recorded in the first half of fiscal 2025 to incentivize investment. However, the firm did not indicate what price would be favorable for new mining operations.
Copper prices fell to $8,700 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange at the end of December 2024 after peaking at around $11,000 per tonne last May. A rise in copper prices could benefit producer countries like the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia, Africa’s top producers.
This article was initially published in French by Emiliano Tossou
Nearly 50 major investors in BP (BP.L) have called on the oil giant to let them vote on potential plans to scrap its climate goals.
BP is holding a strategy meeting next week where it is widely expected to pull back from renewable energy promises, which have made less money than expected in recent years.
Instead, the company is likely to refocus on oil and gas production in a bid to boost its share price and profit.
BP made about £7.2 billion last year, down one-third on the year before, after oil and gas prices fell from the highs seen in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
But the group of investors, which includes Scottish Widows, Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.L) and Royal London Asset Management arm, wrote to BP on Wednesday to say they expect a say on any plans.
“BP has previously offered a shareholder vote on its transition strategy and we expect a similar level of accountability to be maintained for future material strategy changes,” they wrote in a letter to BP chair Helge Lund, seen by the PA news agency.
A spokesperson for Royal London Asset Management added: “As long-term shareholders, we recognise BP’s past efforts toward energy transition but remain concerned about the company’s continued investment in fossil fuel expansion.
“Despite industry commitments, emissions from oil and gas companies are still rising, and we need to see tangible progress in aligning capital expenditure with credible low-carbon scenarios.
“If BP has decided to scrap its production target, we seek clarity on how capital allocation will shift to ensure resilience through the energy transition.”
The group of 48 investment and pension firms also includes Rathbones Investment Management, the Local Authority Pension Fund Forum and the University Pension Plan.
The demands will likely set the group of investors on a collision course with the US hedge fund Elliott Management, which recently built a roughly 5% stake in BP.
Elliott has a reputation for taking large stakes in struggling companies and demanding changes in management and strategy.
It is expected to demand that BP scraps climate goals including a promise to reach net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Just three years ago, BP reported record annual profits of £23 billion.
But some investors are unhappy with its recent performance, amid a slump in its share price and lagging profit compared to competitors like Shell.
BP confirmed that it had received the letter, and said it would respond in due course.
Elliott Management was approached for comment.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bp-investors-demand-vote-plans-141937055.html
President Trump's promise to curb inflation just got more complicated after January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hotter than expected this past week.
The report rattled markets, putting pressure on stocks while bond yields soared, as investors reduced expectations for an interest rate cut, while some even revived the possibility of a hike.
But never mind a hike — a delayed rate cut alone could put President Trump on a "collision course" with the Federal Reserve, warned veteran economist Nouriel Roubini.
"Even just keeping them on hold is going to put [Powell] on a collision course with Trump, because Trump wants to cut rates now," Roubini said. "We're already seeing those tensions, and they're going to build up."
Just ahead of the inflation release, Trump urged the Fed to lower rates, posting on Truth Social that reduced interest rates go "hand in hand" with his tariff agenda.
His call for lower rates comes despite repeated pushback from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who signaled once again this week that he's in no rush to cut interest rates. Speaking before Congress on Wednesday, Powell told House lawmakers, "I would say we're close but not there on inflation ... We want to keep policy restrictive for now."
And while Powell cautioned this week that "it would be unwise to speculate" on the economic fallout of tariffs, Wall Street remains skeptical of Trump's policy agenda. Roubini doubled down on his warning that the Trump administration's proposed policies — including tariffs — risk backfiring by adding to current inflationary pressures, while Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi warned consumers will "shoulder the burden."
"Tariffs, protectionism, economic war with our friends and allies, and also with China, are inflationary and reduce growth," Roubini explained.
And Zandi echoed concerns that Trump's tariffs will add to inflationary pressures, telling me that Trump's tariff proposals will fuel higher inflation, raise interest rates, and curtail economic growth — factors that would further "complicate" the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decisions.
Zandi sees this risk elevated following January's CPI print, which showed "disinflation coming to an end" as prices increased across a number of sectors, including energy, food, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance.
"The broad-based nature of the price increases ... it’s something to worry about with regard to tariffs," Zandi said on Yahoo Finance's Morning Brief. "The disinflation that we had been enjoying is now over, and unfortunately we're not quite back to the Federal Reserve's target, so that's disconcerting."
While the full scope of Trump's tariff plan remains uncertain, Moody's Analytics Global Macroeconomic Model projects that if tariffs on Canada and Mexico are fully implemented next month and remain in effect with no additional exemptions, plus the additional 10% levy imposed on China earlier this month, consumer price inflation would rise 0.5% within a year. Real GDP would be 0.6% lower during the same period.
And the potential for a trade war poses a risk to equities. David Kostin of Goldman Sachs warned earlier this week that tariffs pose a key downside risk to earnings growth, estimating that every 5% increase in the US tariff rate would cut 2025 S&P 500 earnings estimates by roughly 1% to 2%.
Meanwhile, Roubini, who sees the S&P 500 returning "single digits" this year under "moderate" Trump policies, warns that "bad policies" could force the Fed to stay on hold — a move that could raise the risk of a market correction.
However, Roubini believes the likelihood of the Trump administration implementing "bad policy" is relatively low. He points to four "guardrails"that could prevent "bad policy from becoming really bad" — market discipline, Fed independence, strong economic advisers, and bond vigilantes — with bond vigilantes perhaps serving as the primary check on Trump.
"He cannot control investors ... and investors are going to punish [Trump] if his policies are bad for growth and increase inflation," Roubini added. "That’s going to be the most powerful constraint."
By Tuong Nhu, Hai Yen Sun, February 16, 2025 | 10:36 am GMT+7
Shares of Vietnam’s mining companies have rallied since early this month, fueled by heightened global trade tensions following the start of Donald Trump’s second term as the U.S. president.
Binh Dinh Minerals JSC (HoSE: BMC) rose to VND29,150 ($1.15) per share as of the end of Friday, after hovering around VND20,000-22,000 on February 3, the first working day after the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday.
Ha Giang Mineral and Mechanics JSC (HNX: HGM) saw its shares jump nearly VND150,000 ($5.90) in two weeks, reaching VND358,400 ($14.12) at Friday’s close.
MSR's mineral processing plant at Nui Phao mine in Thai Nguyen province, northern Vietnam. Photo courtesy of the firm.
Masan High-Tech Materials Corporation (UPCoM: MSR) shares nearly doubled from early this month, reaching VND19,700 ($0.78) per share.
Bac Kan Minerals JSC (HNX: BKC) skyrocketed 3.67 times to VND52,900 ($2.01) per share by the end of Friday.
Notably, Vinacomin-Minerals Holding Corporation (HNX: KSV) recorded a six-fold increase in share price, reaching VND282,000 ($11.11) since late November last year.
Mining stocks have surged amid an escalating global trade war between the U.S., neighboring countries and China following Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
On December 3, 2024, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced a ban on the export of key metals, including gallium, germanium, and antimony. These metals are critical for semiconductor production, renewable energy, and military equipment. The decision was in retaliation for U.S. export restrictions imposed on Beijing on December 2, 2024.
However, the recent rally in mining stocks does not necessarily reflect the financial performance of these companies.
While KSV, HGM, and BKC posted strong profits in 2024, benefiting from rising metal prices, MSR reported losses of VND1.6 trillion ($63 million) last year, bringing its two-year cumulative losses to VND3.2 trillion ($126 million).
Also, Fecon Mining's (HoSE: FCM) 2024 net profit plunged to VND1.5 billion ($59,080), down from VND17 billion ($669,560) in 2023.
https://theinvestor.vn/vietnam-mining-stocks-rally-amid-global-trade-tension-d14534.html
TOKYO (AP) — Global shares traded mixed on Monday as investors continued to watch economic data and policy moves from U.S. President Donald Trump, as both are likely to impact upcoming central bank moves.
France’s CAC 40 dipped nearly 0.1% in early trading to 8,171.59, while Germany’s DAX added 0.4% to 22,560.00. Britain’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1% to 8,742.97.
U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for a holiday.
In Asia, Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 rose in early trading after the Cabinet Office reported that the economy grew at a better-than-expected annual rate of 2.8% in October-December, underlined by steady exports and moderate consumption. But the benchmark quickly fell back and then recovered to be little changed, finishing up less than 0.1% at 39,174.25.
On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the world’s fourth-largest economy grew 0.7% for its third straight quarter of growth. Japan marked its fourth straight year of expansion, eking out 0.1% growth last year in seasonally adjusted real gross domestic product, which measures the value of a nation’s products and services.
In other regional markets, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.2% to 8,537.10. South Korea’s Kospi surged 0.8% to 2,610.42. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng reversed course, to slip less than 0.1% to 22,616.23, while the Shanghai Composite added 0.3% to 3,355.83.
Markets around the world are nervously watching what upward pressure may come from tariffs that Trump has announced recently. But analysts now think Trump may ultimately avoid triggering a punishing global trade war.
His most recent tariff announcement, for example, won’t take full effect for at least several weeks. That leaves time for Washington and other countries to negotiate.
The Federal Reserve’s goal, as well as that of the Bank of Japan, is to keep inflation at 2%.
In energy trading, benchmark U.S. crude added 28 cents to $71.02 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, rose 34 cents to $75.08 a barrel.
In currency trading, the U.S. dollar declined to 151.90 Japanese yen from 152.25 yen. The euro cost $1.0472, down from $1.0495.
AP Business Writer Stan Choe in New York contributed to this report.
President Donald Trump (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
President Donald Trump on Sunday indicated he is unconcerned by the possibility of the European Union (EU) blocking imports of certain American food products in response to his tariff policy.
The Financial Times reported Sunday the European Commission will soon explore the move, citing multiple unidentified officials. Items at risk of being targeted reportedly include soybean crops.
A reporter asked Trump for his thoughts while at Palm Beach International Airport in Florida.
"That's alright, I don't mind," the president responded. "Let them do it ... they're just hurting themselves if they do that."
Trump last week signed a memorandum ordering a "fair and reciprocal" trade plan. A fact sheet shared by the White House says such a plan will "seek to correct longstanding imbalances in international trade and ensure fairness across the board."
"I’ve decided for purposes of fairness that I will charge a reciprocal tariff," Trump said in the Oval Office while signing the document. "It’s fair to all. No other country can complain."
The EU is one of multiple examples highlighted in the fact sheet. The White House notes the union imposes a 10% tariff on imported cars, while the U.S. enforces a 2.5% tariff.
The fact sheet also says the EU "can export all the shellfish it wants to America," but "bans shellfish exports" from 48 U.S. states. The White House argues the examples, among others, have contributed to a persistent trade deficit in goods faced by the U.S.
"We're having reciprocal tariffs," Trump told reporters Sunday. "Whatever they charge, we charge. Very simple."
The president earlier this month threatened 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as an additional 10% on Chinese imports. He later temporarily paused the tariffs on Canada and Mexico after leaders of the two countries vowed to take steps to address border security and drug trafficking concerns.
Trump this month also announced a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports.
A Lending Tree survey last week three in four Americans believe the tariffs will cause prices in the U.S. to increase. Meanwhile, 44% of respondents indicated they believe their personal finances will be harmed as a result.
Seoul shares opened higher Tuesday amid concerns over the impact of new tariffs by the second Donald Trump administration on key industries.
The benchmark Korea Composite Stock Price Index rose 0.95 points, or 0.04 percent, to 2,611.37 in the first 15 minutes of trading.
Trump recently ordered a 25 percent tariff on all steel and aluminum imports and unveiled a sweeping plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on trading partners.
He also said Friday that he could impose tariffs on auto imports beginning April 2 in an apparent move to affect the Korean car industry.
Large-cap stocks were mixed.
Market bellwether Samsung Electronics rose 0.7 percent, national flag carrier Korean Air climbed 0.4 percent, and leading steelmaker POSCO Holdings gained 0.2 percent.
Among decliners, No. 2 chipmaker SK hynix fell 0.7 percent, and leading battery maker LG Energy Solution declined 0.4 percent.
The local currency was trading at 1,441.25 won against the greenback at 9:15 a.m., up 0.45 won from the previous session. (Yonhap)
Commodities trader Glencore is considering ditching its primary listing in the UK in favour of New York or another location where it can “get the right valuation”.
This would deal another big blow to the London Stock Exchange, which has been hit by a string of high profile departures.
Chief executive Gary Nagle said the company was assessing whether other exchanges were “better suited to trade our securities”. He told journalists:
"Ultimately, what we want to ensure is that our securities are traded on the right exchange where we can get the right and optimal valuation for our stock. There have been questions raised previously around whether London is the right exchange.
If there’s a better one, and those include the likes of the New York stock exchange, we have to consider that."
By Liangping Gao and Ryan WooResidential buildings are pictured near a construction site in Beijing, China April 14, 2022. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File Photo
Summary
BEIJING, Feb 19 (Reuters) - China's new home prices stalled in January, official data showed on Wednesday, suggesting declining demand in the crisis-hit property sector is struggling to find a floor despite continued government efforts to prop up sentiment.
Prices were unchanged month-on-month, according to Reuters calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics data, marking the second straight month of no growth. On a year-on-year basis, new home prices fell 5.0%, narrowing a 5.3% drop the previous month.
Analysts expect the stabilisation of China's property market, which has experienced a significant slump since 2021, will be a protracted process due to high housing inventory, still bearish demand and a long-term population decline.
"The extended price decline in 2025 lends further support to our long-held view that the property meltdown in China has yet to end, and its fiscal system needs a revamp," said Nomura in a research note.
The crisis in the sector, triggered by a government-led campaign to rein in property developers' debt, left many unable to repay debt and complete presold housing units. Home sales have tumbled and confidence sagged.
Official data from January showed unsold new homes totalled 390.88 million square metres in 2024, marking a 16.2% increase from the previous year. Furthermore, new construction starts, measured by floor area, plummeted 23.0% annually last year.
Local governments in many cities give developers unofficial guidance on how much they can adjust prices of new homes, making them an imperfect gauge of market demand.
More than a dozen cities, mostly small ones, said they would loosen or drop restrictions on prices of new homes, according to a report by China Real Estate Association.
Local government efforts to reduce inventory by buying unsold homes and repurposing them for affordable housing are offset by the persistently abundant supply in the secondary market.Speaking in Washington, he had a warning for the so-called BRICS countries, a group of developing nations founded by Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Home prices in the secondary market have fallen 30% from their peak, according to Zhang Dawei, a property analyst at Centaline. In January, data showed year-on-year falls in existing home prices of 5.6%, 6.0%, and 8.2% in tier-one, tier-two, and tier-three cities, respectively.
Moody's ratings estimates this week indicate that secondary market transactions of residential property, which made up 59% of all transactions in 2024, have significantly increased since 2022 and are expected to continue rising.
"We would expect a more sustainable recovery in property sales should there be positive income expectations, stable or rising property price expectations and lower inventory levels that indicate disciplined supply management," said Moody's Ratings.
Measures rolled out last year to stabilise the property market include cuts to mortgage rates and minimum down-payments as well as tax incentives to lower the cost of housing transactions, helping to narrow declines in new home prices.
Policymakers pledged more supportive measures this year.
In the central bank's monetary policy implementation report released last week, the property sector joined the list of key areas marked for more credit support.
A senior Russian official said on Tuesday that Ukrainian drones had attacked a pipeline in Russia which pumps about 1% of global crude supply, a strike that he said could disrupt flows to world markets and damage U.S. companies.
The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) said on Monday that a crude oil transportation facility, the Kropotkinskaya station in the southern Krasnodar region, was struck by several drones loaded with explosives and shrapnel.
The CPC did not say who was behind the drone attack but said that the Kropotkinskaya facility had been taken out of service and that crude through the Tengiz-Novorossiysk pipeline system was being maintained at reduced flow rates and bypassing the pumping station.
Kropotkinskaya is the largest pumping station on the pipeline in Russia.
“Ukrainian drones attacked a pumping station that provides oil transportation through the main oil pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium,” Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s powerful Security Council, said.
“A blow to an oil consortium could stop oil pumping, unbalance the market, increase oil price spikes and cause direct damage to American companies,” he said.
An official at Ukraine’s SBU security service said that Kyiv had hit the pumping station and nearby Ilsky oil refinery using drones.
Medvedev said that the attack by Ukraine on a pipeline partly owned by U.S. companies was a blow against U.S. President Donald Trump who has sought lower oil prices and that it remained to be seen what Trump would do about it.
The CPC pumps oil from the vast Tengiz field on the northeastern shores of the Caspian and from Russian producers, taking oil 1,500 km (939 miles) across Kazakhstan and Russia to the Black Sea where it is loaded onto tankers for supply to world markets.
Russia has a 24% stake, Kazakh state oil and gas company KazMunayGas has a 19% stake, Chevron has a 15% stake, Lukoil has a 12.5% stake and Exxon Mobil has a 7.5% stake.
In 2024, CPC exported 63.01 million metric tons of oil, known as the CPC blend.
(Reporting by Reuters; Editing by Guy Faulconbridge and Christopher Cushing)
On Feb. 17, a Ukrainian drone attacked the pipeline / Photo: Kremlin.ru
Russian President Vladimir Putin has urged foreign investors, including those from Kazakhstan, to supply Russia with the equipment necessary to maintain the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), despite international sanctions.
Putin made the statement during a meeting with top Russian officials regarding a drone attack on a pump station along the CPC, the main route for Kazakh oil exports.
«This is not a Russian organization; this is an international organization. This is why, as far as I am concerned, this oil belongs to all foreign investors under the product-sharing agreement. I mean the oil that went through the CPC pipeline. I believe these companies are participating in estimating the damage caused by the attack. They are also trying to identify a possible timeline for restoring the facility and their role in this process,» Putin said.
He emphasized that foreign investors must supply the necessary equipment despite sanctions if they want CPC operations to resume.
«If there is something the Russian government can do, please do it,» Putin added, addressing the Russian cabinet.
The CPC was attacked on Feb. 17. Russian authorities immediately blamed Ukraine for the attack, and Kyiv confirmed the claim.
Russian company Transneft, one of CPC’s shareholders, estimated that recovery operations would take between 45 and 60 days. Meanwhile, experts say Kazakhstan’s oil exports through the pipeline may decline by 30%, potentially costing the country $600 million in revenue.
However, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy stated that the CPC continues to accept Kazakh oil under its regular schedule without limitations.
Russia is the largest CPC shareholder with a 24% stake. Kazakhstan is represented by KazMunayGas (19%). Other shareholders include Chevron Caspian Pipeline Consortium Company (15%), Mobil Caspian Pipeline Company (7.5%), Lukoil (12.5%), Rosneft-Shell Caspian Ventures Ltd., a Russian-U.K. joint venture (7.5%), Eni International N.A. N.V. S.ar.l. (2%), BG Overseas Holdings Ltd. (2%), Oryx Caspian Pipeline LLC (1.75%) and Kazakhstan Pipeline Ventures LLC (1.75%).
Middle East crude benchmark spot premiums of Oman, Dubai and Murban moved downwards on Thursday, reversing gains in the previous session.
Oil prices were little changed on Thursday after rising to a near one-week high in the previous session as an industry report showing a buildup in U.S. crude stockpiles pressured the market.
News
Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested on Wednesday that a Ukrainian drone attack on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pumping station in southern Russia might have been coordinated with its Western allies.
Saudi Arabia's Aramco 2222 has signed an agreement to acquire a 25% equity stake in Unioil Petroleum Philippines, the company said in a statement late on Wednesday.
Singapore is set to import multi-year high diesel volumes for February, according to data from two shiptrackers and trade sources, as sellers shipped cargoes to Asia's key oil storage hub amid tepid demand elsewhere.
Indonesian state energy company Pertamina is targeting crude oil output of 416,000 barrels per day in 2025 and gas production of 2,536 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd), its deputy CEO said on Thursday at a parliamentary hearing.
FILE PHOTO: An Iraqi man walks at the headquarters of the Central Bank of Iraq in Baghdad · Reuters
By Maha El Dahan and Ahmed Rasheed
DUBAI/BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Iraq's central bank will ban five more local banks from engaging in U.S. dollar transactions, a move that comes after meetings with U.S. Treasury officials in efforts to combat money laundering, dollar smuggling and other violations, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Sunday.
The move comes after meetings in Dubai last week between officials from the Central Bank of Iraq - which last year already banned eight banks from U.S. dollar transactions - and U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve officials, one of the sources said.
A rare ally of both the United States and Iran with more than $100 billion in reserves held in the U.S., Iraq relies heavily on Washington's goodwill to ensure that its access to oil revenues and finances are not blocked.
But OPEC's second-largest producer may find itself in the crosshairs after U.S. President Donald Trump said this month he would restore his "maximum pressure" policy towards Iran.
Iran views its neighbour and ally Iraq as an economic "lung" and wields considerable military, political and economic influence there through the powerful Shi'ite militias and political parties it backs. It also sources hard currency from Iraq through exports and avoids U.S. sanctions via its banking system.
Reuters revealed in December a sophisticated fuel oil smuggling network, that generates at least $1 billion a year for Iran and its proxies, had flourished in Iraq since Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani took office in 2022.
Banks banned from dollar transactions are allowed to continue operating and are allowed to engage in transactions in other currencies, the central bank says.
But the move restricts the banks' ability to conduct transactions in dollars, hampering most operations conducted outside of Iraq.
The current Iraqi government came to power with the support of powerful, Iran-backed parties and armed groups with interests in Iraq's highly informal economy, including the financial sector long seen as a money-laundering hot spot.
Western officials had lauded cooperation with Prime Minister Sudani towards carrying out economic and financial reforms meant to curb the ability of Iran and its allies to access U.S. dollars, but pressure is expected to pile on with Trump's administration.
The five banks are Al-Mashreq Al-Arabi Islamic Bank, United Bank for Investment, Al Sanam Islamic Bank, Misk Islamic Bank and Amin Iraq For Islamic Investment and Finance.
The Central Bank of Iraq did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The Treasury also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The move also included three payment services firms: Amawl, AL-Saqi Payment and Aqsa Payment.
(Reporting by Maha El Dahan in Dubai and Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad;Editing by David Holmes)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exclusive-five-iraqi-banks-banned-142703134.html
Steve Brown has made a business of finding diamonds in the rough. And his hunting ground is the geological treasure trove beneath the North Sea.
The entrepreneur’s company, Orcadian Energy, specialises in taking on tricky but promising oil and gas discoveries and figuring out how to extract their resources at a profit.
Gushers these are not. But there’s good money to be made, if you have the nose for it.
“We focus on fields that were discovered by someone else and aren’t yet in production because, for whatever reason, the previous owners couldn’t see how to develop them,” explains Brown.
“We tend to go for fields with great rocks, but we don’t mind difficult fluids.”
His company is among the flotilla of small to medium-sized businesses that now dominate much of the North Sea amid the gradual exit of so-called supermajors such as Shell, Exxon Mobil and BP.
This is largely because the basin is now well past its best, and there are juicer pickings for the global players elsewhere.
About 90pc of wells are also considered “late stage” or “ultra-late stage”, according to research by energy company Wood Mackenzie, making them less and less efficient to operate.
Against this backdrop, output has fallen from 4.4m barrels of oil equivalent per day to just 1m barrels per day since the turn of the millennium.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/02/16/the-ragtag-oil-investors-taking-over-the-north-sea/
The “Protecting American Energy Production Act” requires Congressional approval for a president to pause fracking.
The House of Representatives passed the “Protecting American Energy Production Act,” which would prevent any future administration from imposing a ban on hydraulic fracturing (fracking) without congressional approval. The bill, introduced by Representative August Pfluger of Texas, seeks to protect domestic energy production amid concerns over past restrictions on oil and gas drilling.
Congressman Pfluger stated following the bill’s passage that President Biden’s administration “took a ‘whole of government’ approach to wage war on American energy production.”
He continued, “My legislation that passed today is a necessary first step in reversing Biden’s war on energy by preventing the federal government from banning the use of hydraulic fracturing.”
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has initiated a rollback of climate-related policies and oil lease restrictions enacted under the previous administration, citing the need to remove regulatory burdens on energy development.
The Delhi High Court has overturned an international arbitration ruling, holding Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries and BP Plc responsible for compensation related to gas allegedly migrating from adjoining fields.
Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Ltd and its partner BP Plc faced a setback when the Delhi High Court overturned an international arbitration tribunal’s ruling, which had previously exonerated the duo from paying compensation for gas allegedly migrated from adjoining fields. The court’s ruling comes after the government’s challenge to the arbitration award, which had dismissed claims for $ 1.55 billion in compensation related to the gas migration issue.
The dispute dates back to 2013, when ONGC suspected the migration of gas from its adjacent blocks to Reliance’s KG-D6 block. The issue escalated when ONGC requested the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) for data regarding the connectivity of the gas reservoirs between the blocks. ONGC’s claims were based on evidence suggesting that gas from the ONGC-controlled areas had migrated into Reliance’s KG-D6 fields, potentially depriving ONGC of its resources.
Following extensive studies, including an independent report from DeGolyer and Mac Naughton (D&M), which confirmed the gas migration, ONGC filed a petition against the government and Reliance. A subsequent report by a committee led by former Delhi High Court Chief Justice Ajit Prakash Shah concluded that while gas had migrated from ONGC’s blocks, no criminal wrongdoing was found on Reliance’s part. However, the committee ruled that the Indian government, not ONGC, was entitled to restitution.
Despite these findings, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas sought $ 1.55 billion in restitution from Reliance, citing unjust enrichment from the migrated gas. Reliance contested the claims and turned to arbitration, which eventually resulted in a 2018 ruling in favor of Reliance and its partners. The arbitration tribunal rejected the government’s demand and awarded compensation to Reliance.
The government, dissatisfied with the arbitration outcome, approached the Delhi High Court, which in May 2023 upheld the arbitration award. However, in a new twist, a division bench of the Delhi High Court set aside the May 2023 decision on February 15, 2025. The bench ruled that the arbitration award contradicted established law and was not consistent with public policy.
The ruling marks a critical juncture in the long-running dispute between Reliance, ONGC, and the government over the KG-D6 gas block. While Reliance has yet to comment on the latest court decision, it is expected that the company will appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court.
The case continues to unfold as the government, Reliance, and its partners seek clarity on the contentious gas migration issue, with the matter now returning to legal battles in the highest court.
(With PTI Inputs)
Washington, Feb 15 (FN Agency) U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order Friday on establishing a new council to boost U.S. production and export of fossil fuels. Tasked with driving up U.S. domestic oil and gas production, partly for export, the National Energy Dominance Council will be chaired by Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum. As Trump was signing the executive order inside the Oval Office, Burgum said he signed a license earlier in the day, which would allow the Commonwealth LNG in the U.S. state of Louisiana to export liquified natural gas (LNG), marking the first LNG export approval after former President Joe Biden paused the approvals in early 2024.
In addition, Trump said some 635 million acres (2.57 million sq km) of offshore federal waters are now open to oil and gas development, ending a ban ordered by Biden on new offshore oil and gas drilling. “If you look at it from the standpoint of a company, you talk about net worth, they’ve destroyed our net worth. We’re putting it back,” Trump said.
February 17 2025 by CoBank
The U.S. ethanol industry is positioned to continue capitalizing on growing global demand for ethanol, but export market headwinds could be on the horizon. U.S. ethanol exports soared to record levels in 2024. Domestic producers shipped more than 1.9 billion gallons to customers abroad last year. However, policy uncertainty at home and abroad continues to cloud the market outlook for biofuels.
Biofuel inclusion or blending rate policies in Canada, Europe and Colombia, which are key buyers of U.S. ethanol, will likely determine if the strong pace of exports continues this year. Shifting political sentiment abroad could result in lower ethanol inclusion rates and imports from domestic producers if international buyers rollback low-carbon policies or miss biofuel targets.
Despite those potential concerns, the export market still offers the most promising opportunity to drive U.S. ethanol demand in 2025, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. Higher ethanol blend rates for U.S. gasoline and nationwide approval of year-round E15 sales would provide a slight boost to domestic sales, but not enough to substantially increase overall demand.
“Ethanol used for higher level blends is expected to increase annually in the U.S., but it constitutes only a small portion of overall ethanol demand due to the market’s size,” said Jacqui Fatka, farm supply and biofuels economist with CoBank. “And without significant investments in infrastructure that enable retailers to change pumps or signage, nationwide E15 sales won’t dramatically move the needle in the near-term. Currently, the best opportunity to increase demand in 2025 remains in the export market.”
Higher crude-oil-to-corn-price ratios, paired with low-carbon fuel standards in Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations and Europe’s Renewable Energy Directives, have created strong demand for U.S. ethanol. The U.S. and Brazil continue to produce around 75% of global ethanol supply. However, Brazil uses most of its own ethanol domestically and is not expected to compete with U.S. for exports any time soon.
Canada has been the top destination for U.S. ethanol in both volume and value for the last four years. While Canada has a national blending mandate of 5% ethanol in gasoline, several provinces require higher rates. Ontario’s mandate will rise to 11% in 2025 as it continues toward its goal of reaching E15 by 2030. But the potential for trade disputes or changes in Canada’s government loom large and could disrupt the flow of U.S. ethanol into Canada.
The EU saw substantial growth in U.S. ethanol imports last year due to growth of the gasoline pool and expansion of E10 and E85 in some member states. Exports in 2024 were up 280% from September to November compared to the same period in 2023. India has also increased its nonfuel ethanol imports, which increased 84% year-over-year from September to November in 2024.
In the U.S. market, ethanol blend volumes follow gasoline demand, which is projected to be flat in 2025. Increased adoption of electric vehicles has resulted in a slight drop in gasoline demand, but not as much as ethanol producers originally feared. Domestic ethanol demand has benefited from workers returning to the office and the overall strength in employment, as well as moderate retail gas prices.
https://ethanolproducer.com/articles/cobank-exports-remain-key-to-us-ethanol-industry-growth-in-2025
Trump's No-Prisoners Approach to Iran-China Oil Crackdown
By Simon Watkins - Feb 17, 2025, 7:00 PM CST
The second presidency of Donald Trump has already demonstrated that a lot was learned from the first. Gone is the belief that a retreat into neo-isolationism is the best way to ‘Make America Great Again’ as he promised his supporters. After all, of the 14 different presidents (aside from Trump) since 1932, 10 achieved greater annual economic growth in the U.S. than Trump, with 3 doing worse, and 1 managing the same 2.3% rate. Trump’s first presidential term also marked the beginning of the accelerated surge in Chinese and Russian power into former geopolitical strongholds of the U.S., most notably the energy-rich Middle East. Consequently, this neo-isolation of his first presidency has been replaced with a full-on version of the Wolfowitz Doctrine, albeit one overlain with Trump’s own brand of business hustle. In essence, it boils down to piling pressure on potential rivals to keep them on the defensive, from which position the U.S. can conclude deals to its own advantage. As part of this ongoing strategy, Trump’s team has been stepping up a ‘double whammy’ tactic to further disable the key threat to its Middle Eastern objectives – Iran – and in the process add to the economic pressure on its only possible superpower rival, China.
Specifically in this regard, the U.S. in recent days has been targeting tankers and ports that have been instrumental in enabling the continued flow of Iranian oil out in the wide world and especially into its major buyer, China. Under the terms of the ‘Iran-China 25-Year Comprehensive Cooperation Agreement’, as first revealed anywhere in the world in my 3 September 2019 article on the subject and also fully detailed in my latest book on the new global oil market order, Beijing receives extremely preferential pricing on Iranian oil and gas imports. As China is reliant on energy imports to power its economic growth, the more oil and gas it can secure at prices below the rest of the world, the greater the advantage it has in engineering growth at a lower cost than it could effect on its own. The more it can grow in such a fashion, the greater the funding it can offer to countries it is targeting in its geopolitical expansion programme that runs under the umbrella of the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’. And the greater this funding, the more leverage China has over these targets to secure key strategic tracts of land or sea in lieu of debts owed or investments made - including most notably, Iran and Iraq’s major airports and naval ports under long-term co-operation agreements, Sri Lanka’s Hambantota Port, and Djibouti’s Doraleh Port, among others.
Related: Oil Bulls Wake Up as Trump's Transactional Approach Puts Middle East at Risk
The U.S. has long been aware of this key link between Iran and China and Trump’s first presidential team tried to do something about it. Specifically, Washington imposed sanctions on various companies and individuals that were seen to be instrumental in the moving of Iranian oil to China with the express intention of reducing such flows to ‘zero’. Indeed, several high-profile reports in August 2020 cited data released on 26 July by China’s General Administration of Customs (GAC) as clear evidence that China did not import any crude oil from Iran in June ‘for the first time since January 2007’. This was absolute nonsense or wishful thinking or some combination of the two. Not only was China continuing to import many millions of barrels of crude oil from Iran every single month, but plans remained in place to continue to do so. Specifically, as exclusively highlighted at the time by OilPrice.com, from 1 June to 21 July (51 days), China imported at least 8.1 million barrels of crude oil – 158,823 barrels per day (bpd) - from Iran in a number of relatively direct ways, a senior oil and gas industry source who worked closely with Iran’s Petroleum Ministry exclusively told us. The vast majority of these 8.1 million barrels were delivered by crude oil container ships.
The key element in this narrative that the U.S. appeared to be overlooking at the time was quite simply that any and all Iranian crude oil that went into ‘bonded storage’ was not put through Chinese Customs at all – and was not even recorded as having been ‘paid for’ - and consequently did not appear on any GAC documentation. This holds true to this day. That said, Washington’s latest moves to cut off this vital source of funding for Iran and this crucial source of cheap energy for China focus on identifying specific tankers associated with such shipments, including those used in the widespread Iranian practice of disguising it as being the supplier by doing ship-to-ship transfers to tankers flying the flag of another country. As also analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order, such ship-to-ship transfers have been commonplace in and around the waters of Malaysia (and to a lesser extent Indonesia) for years before the vessels then made their way to ports in China. So unashamedly proud was Iran of these and other efforts to outfox the U.S.’s sanctions on these oil exports that in December 2018 at the Doha Forum, Iran’s then-Foreign Minister, Mohammad Zarif, stated that: “If there is an art that we have perfected in Iran, [that] we can teach to others for a price, it is the art of evading sanctions.” Towards the end of 2020, Iran’s then-Petroleum Minister himself, Bijan Zangeneh, added a little detail to one such tried-and-trusted method: “What we export is not under Iran’s name. The documents are changed over and over, as well as [the] specifications.”
However, a senior legal source who works very closely with the U.S. agencies involved in such sanctions exclusively told OilPrice.com last week that a major new raft of sanctions targeting the key elements in these such ship-to-ship transfer hubs is in the offing. This would include not just the ships involved, but their companies, owners, brokers, financiers and bankers with any connections to these activities. Although the initial focus of such additional measures will be on the longtime Malaysian side of the operations, it may also be that the Chinese end is eventually targeted directly too, said the source. Although Beijing has already made some moves to be seen to be addressing Washington’s concerns – with Shandong Port Group notably banning ships sanctioned by the U.S. in January – much more remains to be done, according to the source. The recent extension of U.S. sanctions on Iran’s key regional ally – Iraq -- flagged that the U.S. can and will go after the major financing centres that China uses in its dealings with Tehran if Washington thinks Beijing is consistently overstepping the line in challenging key areas of strategic interest for the U.S., the source added. With China’s finances failing, Russia’s dismal showing in Ukraine and Syria, and Iran and its proxies incapacitated by U.S. ally Israel, Trump’s second presidential term looks like a good time to reset the global power balance, he added. Consequently, it is highly likely that a quickly-scalable ladder of consequences – tariffs, sanctions, and other measures – will be used on Iran and China and its allies, for perceived breaches of what Trump’s new Presidential Administration deems acceptable policies with relation to the U.S. and its own allies. This will be an integral part of a broader new initiative to “put Beijing back in its box”, as the Washington source told OilPrice.com, and neutering the threat from its ‘Axis of Upheaval’ into the bargain.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Trumps-No-Prisoners-Approach-to-Iran-China-Oil-Crackdown.html
Oilfield Technology, Monday, 17 February 2025 10:30
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has predicted that worldwide production of petroleum will grow more in non-OPEC+ countries in 2025 and 2026.
EIA forecasts that worldwide production of petroleum and other liquids in 2025 and 2026 will grow more in non-OPEC+ countries than in OPEC+ countries in the February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). EIA estimates that total world petroleum and other liquids supply increased by about 0.6 million bpd in 2024 and will increase by 1.9 million bpd in 2025 and 1.6 million bpd in 2026. Increasing crude oil production from four countries in the Americas – the US, Guyana, Canada, and Brazil – drives this growth. Because of ongoing production restraint among OPEC+ countries, it is forecast that the group’s production will grow by 0.1 million bpd in 2025 and 0.6 million bpd in 2026.
Global petroleum liquids production outside of OPEC+ grew by 1.8 million bpd in 2024 and grows by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 and 1.0 million bpd in 2026 in the forecast. EIA forecasts production will grow from 2024 to 2026 by 0.5 million bpd in Canada, 0.3 million bpd in Guyana, and 0.3 million bpd in Brazil. Most of the forecast growth comes from the US, where it is expected that production will grow by 1.1 million bpd over the same period.
The US continues to produce more crude oil and petroleum liquids than any other country. US crude oil production increased to 13.2 million bpd in 2024 due partly to improved efficiency with fewer rigs. It is expected that production of petroleum liquids in the US will increase by 0.6 million bpd in 2025 and by 0.5 million bpd in 2026. The Permian region accounts for about 50% of US crude oil production of 13.7 million bpd in 2026 in the forecast. Further, the growth in the Permian offsets contractions in other regions.
In 2024, Canada was the fourth-largest oil producing nation, trailing only the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. EIA forecasts production of petroleum and other liquids to grow in Canada by 0.3 million bpd in 2025 and 0.2 million bpd in 2026, starting at 6.0 million bpd in 2024. Production growth in Canada is supported by the start-up of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion that transports oil to Canada’s West Coast for access to export markets from landlocked Alberta.
EIA expects producers in Brazil to add new Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) units to existing fields in the Santos Basin. The Alexandre de Gusmão will be the fifth FPSO installed at the Mero field and will begin production in mid-2025. Also in 2025, the FPSOs Almirante Tamandaré and P-78 in the Búzios field in the Santos Basin plan to begin operations. EIA forecasts that these new projects will increase petroleum liquids production in Brazil by 0.1 million bpd in 2025 and 0.2 million bpd in 2026.
EIA forecasts that petroleum liquids production in Guyana will increase by 0.2 million bpd in 2025 and 0.1 million bpd in 2026, driven by the start-up of the Yellowtail project within the Stabroek block. The development of the Stabroek block includes three projects, Yellowtail, Uaru, and Whiptail, where it is expected that the combined production capacity will reach approximately 1.3 million bpd by the end of 2027.
Production from OPEC+ members accounted for 47% (35.7 million bpd) of global crude oil production in 2024. EIA forecasts that OPEC+ crude oil production will increase by 0.1 million bpd in 2025 as the group gradually increases production in line with the timeline agreed to at the meeting held in December 2024. In addition, the voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd that were announced in November 2023 will be extended until the end of March 2025 and then gradually phased out by the end of September 2026. The additional voluntary production cuts of 1.65 million bpd that were announced in April 2023 were extended until the end of December 2026.
EIA expects OPEC+’s share of global oil production to decrease by one percentage point to 46% in 2025 and 2026, compared with 53% in 2016 when the expanded group was initially formed. OPEC’s surplus crude oil production capacity was 4.6 million bpd in 2024, 103% (2.3 million bpd) more than in 2019. Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in OPEC by volume, representing about a third of the group’s total supply. In 2024, Saudi Arabia produced 9.0 million bpd, down 13% (1.4 million bpd) compared with 2022—before OPEC+ announced the extension of its additional voluntary cuts.
Among the OPEC+ members, Russia was the largest crude oil producer in 2024, averaging 9.2 million bpd. After Russia and Saudi Arabia, the largest producers by volume were Iraq (4.4 million bpd), the United Arab Emirates (2.9 million bpd), and Kuwait (2.5 million bpd).
U.S. gasoline prices have resumed their uptrend, with AAA reporting the national average at $3.161 per gallon of regular compared to $3.139 a week ago and $3.115 a month ago. The national average price of diesel has increased 0.8 cents and now stands at $3.632 per gallon.
“The national average has inched higher, driven primarily by sharp gas price increases on the West Coast, where refinery maintenance and outages have created a ripple effect in neighboring states, pushing prices higher in many communities,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “While most of the country has experienced a relatively quiet week for gas prices, the West Coast has seen rapid increases — a trend that should slow in the coming days. Although the surge remains isolated to the West for now, refinery maintenance will soon begin in other regions, and with the transition to summer gasoline blends underway, prices in most areas are likely to start rising in the weeks ahead. Meanwhile, oil prices remain subdued in the low $70s as President Trump works on a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine — an event that, if realized, could have significant implications for oil markets in the months ahead.”
The oil price selloff accelerated last week after U.S. President Donald Trump took the first big step towards ending Russia’s war in Ukraine three weeks after his inauguration. However, oil prices edged higher on Monday: Brent crude for April delivery rose 0.2% to trade at $74.92 per barrel at 10.50 am ET, while WTI crude for March delivery was up 0.4% to change hands at $71.03 per barrel.
On social media, Trump said he and Putin "agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskiy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now."
A ceasefire to the Russia-Ukraine war could be bearish for oil prices if Trump pushes for the removal of sanctions on the Russian energy industry, Tyler Richey, co-editor at Sevens Report Research, told MarketWatch. Geopolitical stability may also "largely extinguish the still simmering 'fear bid' in the oil market."
By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com
Iranian crude oil flows to China have rebounded this month after a U.S. crackdown on shipments launched in late 2024 decimated them in January. In a last-minute push to sanction Iran, the Biden admin blacklisted a number of tankers, trading entities, and shipping companies as participants in sanctioned oil trade.
The February average of Iranian oil exports to its biggest buyer is set to average 1.74 million barrels daily, according to preliminary data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. The figure is an 86% increase from January flows.
The boost in shipments was enabled by the opening of new receiving terminals and more ship-to-ship transfers, the Bloomberg report noted.
The Trump administration has threatened to return to the maximum pressure approach of Trump’s first term in a bid to force Iran to give u developing a nuclear weapon. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the target is to squeeze Iranian oil exports to a tenth of their current levels.
Kpler said in a recent analysis that the return to a maximum pressure campaign against Iran on the part of Washington was likely to weaken oil exports to China, at least for a while. “Some buyers, particularly larger Chinese privately owned refiners, are likely to steer clear of such dealings as a precaution in the near term,” due to higher prices resulting from workarounds to avoid U.S. sanctions, Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi wrote.
China’s private oil refiners, the so-called teapots, are key buyers of Iran’s sanctioned crude, and the two sides have established a trade relationship favorable for both. Iran gets to sell its crude that nearly everyone else shuns, while China’s independent refiners, the so-called teapots, get cheap oil. However, the tougher U.S. squeeze on Iran’s oil industry will inevitably lift prices, which would affect buying decisions, as noted by Kpler.
By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iranian-Oil-Exports-to-China-Rebound.html
(Bloomberg) -- Chevron Corp.’s ability to continue exporting crude from Venezuela is under review, President Donald Trump said, signaling an openness to tighter restraints on the oil giant’s operations in the South American country.
“We’re looking at that now,” Trump told reporters at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida on Tuesday. “We’re looking at the whole situation.”
Trump’s remarks underscore continued tensions with Venezuela that could spill over to the energy trade. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro recently released American prisoners and accepted immigrants deported from the US following talks with Trump envoy Richard Grenell, moves seen as an effort to head off the threat of additional sanctions.
But asked Tuesday whether he would be inclined to continue to allow oil exports through Chevron, Trump said: “Maybe not.”
Despite sanctions curtailing business dealings in Venezuela, Chevron holds a waiver from the US government allowing it to continue operations in the country.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other Republican politicians have called for the US to revoke that operating license, casting it as a financial lifeline for the Maduro regime. Chevron produces about a fifth of Venezuela’s oil and helped boost exports to a five-year high in 2024, nearing Maduro’s goal of 1 million barrels per day.
Chevron has been able to boost exports of synthetic oil through operational changes and equipment replacements, Bloomberg News reported last week.
“Chevron has been a constructive presence in Venezuela for over a century, where we have dedicated investments and a large workforce,” the company said in an emailed statement. “We conduct our business in Venezuela in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations.”
Continued oil exports from Venezuela are seen as helping soften the potential impact of Trump’s promised tariffs on Canadian and Mexican crude, on hold until early March.
Trump on Tuesday criticized the Biden administration’s decision to enable oil development and exports from Venezuela, since the US is flush with its own crude resources. The US started buying billions of dollars of oil from Venezuela, Trump said, adding: “It gave them a new — really — lease on life.”
Instead of tapping America’s beautiful “liquid gold,” he said, the US under Biden “started paying a fortune to Venezuela. And we’re looking at that actually. Why did they do that? Why were they doing that? Why would they go to the enemy and give them billions and billions of dollars?”
Trump acknowledged Maduro’s decision to accept immigrants deported from the US despite previous vows to refuse them entry. Still, he said, “we’re looking at Venezuela very seriously.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-says-chevron-venezuela-oil-220731294.html
Brazil became the world’s seventh-largest oil producer after expanding its production capacity over the past decade.
Brazil, the largest oil producer in South America, has officially joined the Opec+ group of more than 20 countries that attempts to manage global oil output.
The participation formalises an initial announcement in November 2023, a statement by Opec said.
Brazil’s membership will be limited to the Opec+ Charter of Cooperation, a permanent forum between oil-producing countries to discuss industry-related issues.
The country will not participate in decisions and will not be bound by obligations such as output cuts, said Alexandre Silveira, Brazil’s minister of mines and energy.
Opec+, created in 2016 to enhance control over oil supply and prices, is a coalition of the 12 members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia and including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, and 11 non-Opec oil producing nations, led by Russia and including Oman, Kazakhstan, Bahrain, Mexico and Malaysia.
Brazil became the world’s seventh-largest oil producer after expanding its production capacity over the past decade. From producing 2 million barrels per day of crude in 2013, in 2023 the country’s output reached 3.4 million bpd, or 4.32 million bpd of oil equivalent.
The Brazilian Petroleum Institute has predicted that Brazil’s oil production will reach 3.6 million bpd in 2025, a 6 percent increase, thanks to the enormous reservoirs called pre-salt fields up to 7km below the ocean off the Brazilian coast.
Brazil’s entry into Opec+ reflects a growing desire by emerging economies to exert more influence over global commodity prices.
The US Energy Information Administration expects world production to increase by 1.9 million bpd this year and 1.6 million bpd next year, driven by four countries in the Americas, the US, Guyana, Canada and Brazil.
Brazil has also decided to become a member of the International Renewable Energy Agency and the International Energy Agency, the government said on Tuesday.
https://www.agbi.com/oil-and-gas/2025/02/brazil-joins-opec-oil-producers-group/
India’s crude oil imports from Iraq jumped in January to 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) as cargo arrivals from all key Indian suppliers rose last month, Shafaq News reports, citing data from trade sources.
Thus Iraq remained the second-biggest crude oil supplier to India, which is the world’s third-largest oil importer.
Arrivals of Russian crude also rose in January, as cargoes were contracted weeks before the latest U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil trade network from January 10, which upended global trade flows with buyers scrambling to book unsanctioned vessels, traders, and insurers.
Indian imports of Russian crude oil increased by 4.3% to 1.58 million in January, and Russia kept the number-one spot.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were the third and fourth biggest suppliers to India. The United States jumped to the fifth place, after Indian refiners imported 218,400 bpd of American crude last month, more than tripling the volumes from 70,600 bpd in December.
Going forward, India is set to increase significantly its purchases of U.S. crude while its imports of Russian oil are likely to stagnate until the sanctions chaos clears.
India, which has a massive trade surplus with the United States, has said it would aim to buy more American oil and LNG to reduce the surplus and avoid potential tariffs from President Donald Trump.
India could raise its imports of U.S. oil and gas to $25 billion, up from about $15 billion, India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said last week after a meeting between President Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
India imported a lot of American crude in 2021, but its imports have dropped since then as Indian refiners turned to the cheap Russian oil which no one in the West wants.
However, since last month’s U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, India has scrambled to reshuffle and reconfigure oil traders, insurers, and vessel owners with which it works. India wants to continue receiving the cheaper Russian oil without risking violating the U.S. sanctions on Russia’s oil exports.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif gestures as he speaks in a meeting. — PID/File
ISLAMABAD: Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is all set to leave for Azerbaijan for a two-day official visit on February 24-25 with a focus on increasing bilateral trade, top official sources told The News. “The trade between the two countries is not up to the mark as Pakistan’s exports to Azerbaijan were valued at approximately $5.64m in 2023. In 2022, the total bilateral trade between Pakistan and Azerbaijan amounted to $52.3m, with Pakistan’s exports at $26.1m and imports at $26.2m.
“Notably, in February 2024, Pakistan signed an agreement with Azerbaijan for the sale of JF-17C Block-III fighter jets, valued at $1.6 billion. In July 2024, during the visit of Azerbaijan President Illham Aliyev to Pakistan, both countries agreed to enhance the bilateral investment level of up to $2 billion in areas of mutually beneficial projects.”
Now in the upcoming visit of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the top officials said, both countries are likely to sign the agreement on the establishment of an international trading company in Singapore as a Joint Venture between Pakistan State Oil (PSO) and State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR). The federal cabinet has already ratified the decision of ECC approving the establishment of this company. This will be the first ever company to be set up by PSO in Singapore for trading LNG and other energy products. PSO will soon deposit $0.5 million in any bank in Singapore for the registration of its company.
The government has come up with this idea for purchasing LNG in the spot market setting aside PPRA rules. SOCAR is already in LNG business in the international market and PSO can take advantage of the links SOCAR has to thrive in the international market. However, the issues like percentage of shareholding between the two entities and how the trading company will run are being finalised.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/1284716-pm-set-to-visit-azerbaijan-from-24th
Why Tesla Sales are Plummeting
By Robert Rapier - Feb 10, 2025, 12:00 PM CST
It’s hard to believe it was ever a controversial take, but a little over two years ago, I argued that Tesla’s market share was poised to decline due to Elon Musk’s behavior. I cited a range of factors—from intensifying competition and supply chain challenges to a less-discussed (at that time), but equally important, variable: Elon Musk’s controversial acquisition of Twitter. I predicted that his behavior on the platform would alienate the very customer base most likely to purchase an electric vehicle, eventually impacting Tesla sales.
I suggested that it might take a bit of time, because Tesla didn’t have a lot of competition and many Tesla orders were already in the pipeline, but I thought his actions would eventually drive customers away.
Some critics at the time dismissed this view as overly sensational. One commenter called it a “stupid and one-sided analysis”, adding “This article makes it sound like Elon Musk is ruining Tesla with his Twitter-related actions, but revenues are still up every year.”
Data Validates the Warning
Recent data appears to validate my previous analysis.
The latest figures indicate that even though the EV market grew last year, Tesla’s 2024 deliveries dropped double digits from 2023, confirming that the company has indeed lost momentum. It isn’t just the inevitable result of a rapidly expanding EV market where more models are emerging; there’s growing evidence that Musk’s actions have actively deterred potential buyers.
Now, as Tesla’s latest quarterly numbers reveal a marked decline in deliveries, it’s becoming increasingly hard to ignore the impact of Musk’s public persona on the brand. While Tesla continues to maintain a robust revenue stream, the dilution of brand loyalty is evident.
The California New Car Dealers Association (CNCDA) noted, “Things aren’t looking so golden for EV automaker Tesla in the Golden State. Tesla’s dominance in the electric vehicle market continues to falter as the brand reported its fifth consecutive quarterly registration decline. Tesla’s registrations fell 7.8 percent in Q4 2024, contributing to an overall 11.6 percent decline in 2024.”
Impact of Musk’s Public Persona
When the company once enjoyed a near-mythical status as the undisputed leader of the EV revolution, its products were not only about performance and innovation but also about aspirational branding. Today, however, that narrative appears fractured by the growing politicization of Musk.
Critics have argued that Tesla’s market share decline is the inevitable result of an expanding overall EV market, with traditional automakers and startups alike launching competitive models. Indeed, the numbers reflect that the overall market is growing, which in itself presents a challenge for any single company.
Yet, there is more to the story. The loss in market share isn’t solely a byproduct of fierce competition or production constraints—it’s also a signal that consumers are reacting to leadership decisions that seem increasingly disconnected from core customer expectations.
In retrospect, my previous analysis wasn’t just a contrarian take on market dynamics—it was a warning that corporate governance and brand stewardship matter immensely. Musk’s high-profile moves have shifted public discourse in ways that extend far beyond social media. The resulting erosion of trust among a segment of Tesla’s traditional customer base is now reflected in the declining delivery numbers despite an EV market that is still growing.
Looking Ahead: Rebuilding the Connection
As the data unfolds, it’s clear that while Tesla still delivers impressive technological advancements, the company now faces a critical juncture. The challenge is not only to sustain innovation but to rebuild the connection with consumers that once fueled its meteoric rise.
In the end, the evolving narrative around Tesla serves as a reminder: even the most dominant market players must heed the multifaceted demands of modern business—where product excellence, public perception, and leadership behavior all play crucial roles. Musk’s Twitter escapade was seen as peripheral by some, but as Tesla’s latest figures suggest, they’re proving to be a factor in the company’s current market performance.
While Tesla’s share price remains robust, the decline in deliveries signals that its brand is under strain. This divergence underscores a critical reality: technological prowess alone no longer guarantees market dominance. Tesla now faces the formidable challenge of re-establishing a connection with its customers while maintaining its relentless pace of innovation. As investor sentiment begins to factor in the broader implications of leadership decisions and public perception, the coming quarters will be pivotal in determining whether Tesla can reverse the trend.
By Robert Rapier
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Tesla-Sales-are-Plummeting.html
Abstract
Spent mushroom substrate (SMS), often overlooked as waste despite its richness in organic matter and mineral micronutrients, is increasingly recognized as a versatile resource for various applications. This study examines the potential of SMS as a feedstock for biogas production. A periodic mesophilic fermentation regime at 36.0 ± 0.1 °C was selected to conduct the experiments, after mixing the substrate with the inoculum, over a period of 38 days. The experimental results showed an average biogas yield of 292.7 Nm3/t of fresh SMS, with a methane concentration of 66.2%, making SMS a competitive resource for renewable energy production. This approach not only offers economic benefits for agricultural and energy sectors, but also supports environmental sustainability by promoting waste reduction and resource valorization.
Rafael Grossi (left), director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya at a joint news conference in Tokyo on Tuesday | POOL / VIA JIJI.
Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya and Rafael Grossi, director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), agreed on Tuesday to strengthen cooperation on the decommissioning and dismantling of the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear plant.
In their meeting at the State Guest House, Akasaka Palace, in Tokyo, Iwaya and Grossi discussed the work at the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) Holdings plant and the release of tritium-tainted treated water from the facility into the ocean.
At a joint news conference after the meeting, Iwaya thanked the IAEA for its cooperation and said, "We will ensure safety with the involvement of the IAEA in order to safely release treated water until the 'last drop.'"
He also said that a decision has been made to contribute about €14 million to the IAEA for medical assistance and other purposes in Ukraine.
At a dinner party after the meeting, Iwaya and Grossi exchanged views on measures to ensure the safety of nuclear power plants in Ukraine, which has been invaded by Russia, and on nuclear nonproliferation.
Grossi arrived in Japan on Tuesday and visited Tepco's Kashiwazaki-Kariwa nuclear plant in Niigata Prefecture for the first time. He referred to the importance of restarting the plant at an early date for the sake of Japan and Tepco.
During his stay in the country until Thursday, he is scheduled to participate in additional monitoring related to treated water from the Fukushima plant, which will also involve Chinese, South Korean and other research bodies.
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2025/02/19/japan/foreign-minister-iaea-head-talks/
South Korea's mint has temporarily suspended the sale of gold bars as the rapid movement of physical gold and silver to the U.S. continues to send ripples through the precious metals markets.
As Bloomberg put it, this adds to signs of "widespread tightness across markets for physical precious metals."
In its announcement, the Korea Minting and Security Printing Corp. said it faced supply sourcing problems and was struggling to manage demand for gold bars.
The prices of gold and silver futures traded on the COMEX have surged above the spot price of gold in the London market. Mainstream analysts blame the dynamic on the threat of tariffs pushing the futures price of gold (and silver) higher in New York, but as Chris Powell reported, there could be a more fundamental issue at play: the fact that there is a lot more paper gold than physical metal.
Regardless of the reason, the movement of gold has driven record outflows of gold from London vaults, and it appears to be impacting supply in Asia as well. According to a Reuters article earlier this month, "Global bullion banks are flying gold into the United States from trading hubs catering to Asian consumers, including Dubai and Hong Kong, to capitalize on the unusually high premium that U.S. gold futures are enjoying over spot prices."
Even though the price of gold surged in recent weeks and set new price records above $2,900 per ounce, the premium on the COMEX has created an arbitrage opportunity that big institutions capable of quickly moving metal between trading hubs can take advantage of.
JPMorgan was among several financial institutions that recently announced plans to deliver bullion contracts traded on the COMEX. The delivery announcements totaled 30 million ounces of gold, the second-largest level of planned deliveries since 1994.
The movement of gold and silver out of London vaults is becoming problematic.
This issue here is obvious. As metal flows out of London into New York, at some point, the gold and silver holdings across the pond will become depleted. As we reported a couple of weeks ago, this dynamic is creating significant uncertainty in both the gold and silver markets.
“This dynamic is having the effect of draining London vaults of gold and silver at an unusually fast rate –and at some point, these lower levels of vaulted metal in London could create price dislocations in that major market too. Those who have short positions in the New York market are in the process of getting squeezed, especially if they are having trouble getting their hands on physical metal to deliver into their short positions. Or get it into the right form.”
This squeeze is likely one of the factors that pushed the spot price of gold to record levels last week.
Hecla Mining Company (HL) reported fourth-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings per share of 4 cents, in line with the Zacks Consensus Estimate. HL incurred a loss per share of 4 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Including one-time items, the company posted earnings of 2 cents per share against a loss of 7 cents in the prior-year quarter.
Hecla Mining Company Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise
Hecla Mining Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Hecla Mining Company Quote
HL’s Sales & Margins Rise Y/Y on Higher Gold Prices
The company’s revenues increased 55.4% year over year to $250 million in the quarter under review. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $229 million.
Gold prices rose 10.7% year over year to $2,656 an ounce. The realized silver price was $30.19 per ounce in the quarter, up 28.6% from $23.47 in the prior-year quarter. Realized prices for lead and zinc were down 13.8% and up 10.1%, respectively.
The total cost of sales increased 17.9% year over year to $181 million in the quarter. Gross profit marked a substantial improvement to $68.3 million from the prior-year quarter’s $7 million. The gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 27.4% compared with 4.3% in the prior-year quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA was $86.6 million, up from $33 million in the fourth quarter of 2023.
Hecla Mining’s Q4 Production Numbers
HL reported a silver production of 3.87 million ounces in the fourth quarter of 2024, up 6.3% on a sequential basis. Production improved 32% from the fourth quarter of 2023.
Gold production grew 10.7% to 35,727 ounces from the third quarter of 2024. The same was down 3.9% from the prior-year quarter.
HL’s 2024 Performance
The company delivered adjusted earnings per share of 11 cents in 2024. The Zacks Consensus Estimate was pegged at earnings of 8 cents. It reported an adjusted loss of 1 cent in 2023.
Including one-time items, Hecla Mining reported earnings of 6 cents per share against a loss per share of 14 cents in the prior year.
The company’s revenues grew 29.1% year over year to a record $930 million in 2024. The top-line figure beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $919 million.
Hecla Mining’s Financial Position
The company ended 2024 with $26.8 million of cash and cash equivalents, down from the $106 million held at the end of 2023. The cash flow from operating activities was $218.3 million in 2024 against an inflow of $75 million in the prior year.
HL’s 2025 Guidance
The company expects consolidated silver production of 15.5-17.0 million ounces in 2025. Consolidated gold production is anticipated to be 120-130 thousand ounces in 2025.
Hecla Mining Stock’s Price Performance
HL shares have gained 51.7% in the past year compared with the industry's growth of 76.5%.
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2417185/hecla-mining-q4-earnings-meet-estimates-revenues-rise-55-yy
By Alex Kimani - Feb 19, 2025, 11:30 AM CST
Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Wednesday after safe haven flows jumped amid U.S. President Donald Trump's growing tariff threats. Spot gold was quoted at $2,935.10 an ounce at 9.30 am ET after surging to an all-time-high of $2,946.85/oz earlier in the session. Gold prices have now hit a new high nine times so far in 2025.
"Gold's rally appears to be driven by President Trump's remarks on upcoming tariffs for autos and pharmaceuticals, which could pave the way for a push toward $3,000," Zain Vawda, market analyst at MarketPulse, told Reuters.
Gold continues to benefit from the broad uncertainty created by tariffs and the potentially inflationary pressures or implications of demand destruction. The Trump administration has announced 25% tariffs on aluminium and steel, a move likely to indirectly impact the auto industry and could depress sales. Gold not only plays an important role in portfolio diversification but can also be an effective hedge against uncertainties. Gold prices have surged since late 2022, with the commodity in high demand as a geopolitical hedge due to Russia’s war in Ukraine and also demand for an inflation hedge. Falling interest rates have also made the yellow metal attractive while a stronger dollar has added fire to the rally thanks to gold generally being dollar-denominated.
However, the physical gold market has shown signs of weakening as India’s market continues to trade at a discount. The latest trade data shows that gold shipments to India tumbled to 31 tons, good for a 46% month-over-month decline and the lowest since March 2024. Meanwhile, China’s market continues to toy with a discount. Preliminary data suggests net purchases have slowed, with Türkiye adding 5.4 tons in January and 0.6 tons in February so far.
Experts have, however, predicted that the gold price rally is likely to continue. Market focus will shift to the Federal Reserve's interest rate stance, with minutes of its January policy meeting due later on Tuesday, "Any bearish impact (on gold) from today's FOMC minutes release is expected to be short-lived," Vawda said.
LONDON (dpa-AFX) - British mining company Anglo American Plc. (AAUKY.PK, AAL.L) reported Thursday a hefty loss in fiscal 2024, compared to prior year's profit, amid lower revenues and weak production volumes.
Further, the Board has proposed a final dividend of $0.22 per share, down 46 percent from last year's $0.41 per share. The total dividend for the year 2024 would be $0.64 per share, 33 percent lower than last year.
Separately, Anglo American announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding or MoU between its 50.1 percent owned subsidiary Anglo American Sur SA and the Chilean state-owned mining company Codelco for a framework to implement a joint mine plan for their respective, adjacent copper mines of Los Bronces and Andina in Chile.
The joint mine plan is expected to increase copper production with minimal additional capital required.
A new operating company, jointly owned and controlled by AAS and Codelco, will coordinate the execution of the joint mine plan.
Under the MoU terms, Anglo American and Codelco are working towards concluding due diligence and entering into definitive agreements in H2 2025.
In the interim, both Los Bronces and Andina will continue to operate as they currently do, based on the 2019 cooperation agreement between the two mines.
For the year, loss attributable to equity shareholders of the company was $3.07 billion, compared to last year's $283 million. Loss per share was $2.53, compared to profit of $0.23 a year ago.
Underlying earnings were $1.94 billion or $1.60 per share, compared to $2.93 billion or $2.40 per share a year ago.
Underlying EBITDA fell 15 percent from last year to $8.46 billion, and EBITDA margin dropped to 30 percent from prior year's 31 percent.
Revenue for the year fell 11 percent to $27.29 billion from $30.65 billion a year ago.
Production volumes decreased 7 percent on a copper equivalent basis, mainly reflecting lower production from Platinum Group Metals operations, as well as slightly lower own mined volumes.
Copper production fell 6 percent, while Iron ore production grew 1 percent. The anuual production was down 7 percent for Platinum group metals and 22 percent for Diamonds.
AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU) Full Year 2024 Results
Key Financial Results
- Revenue: US$5.79b (up 26% from FY 2023).
- Net income: US$1.00b (up from US$235.0m loss in FY 2023).
- Profit margin: 17% (up from net loss in FY 2023).
- EPS: US$2.33 (up from US$0.56 loss in FY 2023).
NYSE:AU Earnings and Revenue Growth February 20th 2025
All figures shown in the chart above are for the trailing 12 month (TTM) period
AngloGold Ashanti Revenues and Earnings Miss Expectations
Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.4%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 3.4%.
Looking ahead, revenue is forecast to grow 7.0% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 4.7% growth forecast for the Metals and Mining industry in the US.
The company's shares are down 6.4% from a week ago.
https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/anglogold-ashanti-full-2024-earnings-103416911.html
Sometimes you come across a purported scientific paper that makes you do a triple-check, just to be sure that you didn’t overlook something, as maybe the claims do make sense after all. Such is the case with a recent publication in the Langmuir journal by [Budlayan] and colleagues titled Droplet-Scale Conversion of Aluminum into Transparent Aluminum Oxide by Low-Voltage Anodization in an Electrowetting System.
Breaking down the claims made and putting them alongside the PR piece on the [Ateneo De Manila] university site, we start off with a material called ‘transparent aluminium oxide’ (TAlOx), which only brings to mind aluminium oxynitride, a material which we have covered previously. Aluminium oxynitride is a ceramic consisting of aluminium, oxygen and nitrogen that’s created in a rather elaborate process with high pressures.
In the paper, however, we are talking about a localized conversion of regular aluminium metal into ‘transparent aluminium oxide’ under the influence of the anodization process. The electrowetting element simply means overcoming the surface tension of the liquid acid and does not otherwise matter. Effectively this process would create local spots of more aluminium oxide, which is… probably good for something?
Combined with the rather suspicious artefacts in the summary image raising so many red flags that rather than the ‘cool breakthrough’ folder we’ll be filing this one under ‘spat out by ChatGPT’ instead, not unlike a certain rat-centric paper that made the rounds about a year ago.
Coordinating Minister for Economy Affairs Airlangga Hartarto, right, talks in a meeting with the CEO of Emirate Global Aluminium Abdulnasser Ibrahim Saif bin Kalban on the sidelines of World Governments Summit in Dubai on Feb. 12, 2025. (Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs)
JAKARTA: The Indonesian government is in talks with UAE’s Emirate Global Aluminium to develop its aluminium industry, as the Southeast Asian nation seeks to utilize its vast reserves of minerals.
Indonesia has rich deposits of minerals like copper and bauxite — the main source of aluminium — and is the world’s largest source of nickel. Its government has been working to attract foreign investment to help develop its mineral processing industry.
In a meeting with EGA CEO Abdulnasser Ibrahim Saif bin Kalban, Coordinating Minister for Economy Affairs Airlangga Hartarto discussed ways to move forward plans for the Dubai-based company to help aluminium production in Indonesia.
“We need to make sure that cooperation in the aluminium sector will have a significant impact on the Indonesian economy, especially for jobs creation,” he said in a statement issued on Saturday.
Hartarto was at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, where he also held talks with other UAE officials and business leaders.
EGA and state-owned Indonesia Asahan Aluminium, or Inalum, have signed several strategic partnership agreements in the last few years, aimed at boosting Indonesia’s aluminium production capacity. This includes increasing that of Inalum’s North Sumatra smelter by up to 400,000 tons a year.
The Emirati company, one of the world’s largest aluminium producers, also said it was planning to explore alternative sources of renewable energy in Indonesia to support its aluminium production plans.
“With our capabilities and the advanced technology that we use, along with the natural resources potential in Indonesia — we will be able to produce the best alumina in high quantities,” Abdulnasser was quoted as saying.
But Indonesia still needs to work out low-carbon options to generate enough electricity for green aluminium production, according to the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs.
Green aluminium, or low-carbon aluminium, is a sustainable metal produced using methods powered by renewable energy sources, essentially reducing the carbon footprint.
This week, the domestic bauxite market mainly operated steadily.
As of today, the self-pick-up transaction price at crushing plants for bauxite in Shanxi with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60 per cent, excluding VAT, was approximately RMB 640-670 per tonne; in Henan, the price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.0 and alumina content of 60 per cent, excluding VAT, was around RMB 570-610 per tonne; in Guizhou, the price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 5.5 and alumina content of 58 per cent, excluding VAT, was RMB 510-550 per tonne; in Guangxi, the price for bauxite with an Al/Si ratio of 6.0 and alumina content of 53 per cent, excluding VAT, was RMB 320-335 per tonne.
Imported bauxite:
According to data from February 7, the weekly port arrivals of bauxite at domestic ports totalled 3.1809 million tonnes, a decrease of 955,900 tonnes compared to the previous week; the weekly port departures of bauxite from Guinea's main ports totalled 2.6859 million mt, down by 287,700 tonnes from the previous week; the weekly port departures of bauxite from Australia's main ports totalled 443,100 tonnes, a decrease of 291,700 tonnes from the previous week.
In terms of prices, demand side, spot alumina prices continued to decline, and alumina refineries have lowered their acceptance of high-priced bauxite. According to SMM, buyers currently report being unable to accept imported Guinean bauxite priced above USD 100 per tonne. Supply side, although suppliers reduced their quotes from high levels before the holiday, considering the newly commissioned alumina capacity and the rigid demand for alumina production, suppliers still showed sentiment to stand firm on quotes. Currently, there is still a tug-of-war between sellers and buyers in the bauxite market, and in the short term, bauxite prices may shift to a volatile trend.
SMM comments:
Alumina prices have dropped significantly, and due to the narrowing profit margins of alumina, bauxite prices faced downward pressure this week. However, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers has not yet ended, and there remains a significant disparity in spot market quotes for imported bauxite. Suppliers still show sentiment to stand firm on quotes, making it difficult for bauxite prices to see a substantial decline in the short term. In the near term, bauxite prices may enter a phase of volatile adjustment.
Source: SMM
Hindalco MD Satish Pai.
NEW DELHI: It is a good time for domestic companies to invest more in India – the current environment is very conducive, India’s economic growth will be more than the rest of the world and there is also policy consistency from the government, says Satish Pai, managing director of Hindalco Industries in an interaction with TNIE. Pai also mentioned that the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme and state incentives are also encouraging industries to invest in India.
Hindalco has committed Rs 40,000 crore investments over the next three years in brownfield expansion.
“It’s not just for announcing, we are actually doing the project. I think for us, it was the market condition and the strength of our balance sheet (which helped us make these investments),” says Pai.
Pai said that the Lapanga rolling plant (in Odisha) is getting commissioned this month, while the work in the Kansariguda alumina project is starting this week. The construction work of the copper recycling plant in Gujarat has started. The company has applied for environmental clearance for the copper smelter in Dahej and the aluminum smelter Lapanga.
“Two projects are off the ground, two projects are in environmental clearance phase,” says the Hindalco MD, when asked about the company’s expansion plans.
Hindalco Industries, the Aditya Birla Group metals flagship, reported a consolidated net profit of Rs 3,735 crore for the third quarter, up 60% year-on-year, driven by a strong operational performance by the India business.
Pai attributed the strong Q3 numbers to very strong performance in the India Business, both in aluminum and copper.
Deflation at the factory gate has persisted for 28 straight months
The central government is intervening, albeit with protections for copper given its central role in the energy transition and the development of China’s new economy. PHOTO: REUTERS
Eleven ministries signed an order last week to limit capacity in the world’s biggest copper industry, by tying expansions to whether companies also control enough ore supply to feed their smelters. As China imports most of its feedstock, and ore has gotten scarcer anyway, it’s a condition that’s unlikely to be met by the vast majority of firms. But there could be wiggle room in how the policy is implemented.
Copper’s just one of a number basic industries, from cement to steel and solar, that are laden with too much capacity relative to demand for firms to consistently turn a profit. It’s a feature of the Chinese economy that has baleful implications for domestic growth and international trade. Deflation at the factory gate has persisted for 28 straight months. Steel has become a tariff target for the Trump administration, ultimately because China is swamping the world market with its surplus.
“The fight to end excessive competition and deflation is now a national priority across industries, highlighting for the first time the need to improve supply discipline,” Jefferies Financial Group said last month.
The copper industry tried and failed last year to impose its own supply discipline. Refined metal production still hit a record. Cutthroat competition among too many firms bidding for not enough ore saw the fees that smelters charge turn negative, crushing profitability. Fear of losing market share and local government incentives to keep output elevated were to blame.
So, now the central government is intervening, albeit with protections for copper given its central role in the energy transition and the development of China’s new economy.
For one, the government’s new rules apply only “in principle”, which suggests there’s room for manoeuvre baked into the policy, said Zhao Yongcheng, an analyst with Benchmark Mineral Intelligence in Beijing. And unlike aluminium or oil refining, there’s no blanket ceiling on capacity.
China has to be cautious in slowing down expansion, said Zhao, because copper demand from some sectors such as electric vehicles is still booming. The worldwide shortage of ore could also ease as higher prices attract investment.
Beijing’s order instead calls on smelters to find their own raw material. That could be mines abroad or domestic sources of ore. The goal is to lift copper mine resources in China by as much as 10 per cent over the next three years.
Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO) reported fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of $1.01 per share, which marginally missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.02. The bottom line, however, marked a 74% surge from the year-ago quarter. Results were driven by higher sales volumes for copper, zinc and silver, and improved prices. SCCO’s fourth-quarter performance was partially hurt by a decline in the molybdenum sales volume.
The company posted sales of $2.784 billion, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.780 billion. The top line increased 21.3% year over year.
SCCO reported a 59.4% year-over-year jump in zinc sales volumes. Molybdenum volumes edged down 2.1%, while silver volumes improved 21.6%. Copper sales volumes moved up 5.4%.
The cost of sales rose 3.6% year over year to $1.21 billion. Operating profit in the fourth quarter was $1.31 billion, reflecting 50.5% year-over-year growth. The operating margin in the reported quarter was 47% compared with 37.8% in the year-ago quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA improved 42.7% year over year to $1.51 billion in fourth-quarter 2024. The adjusted EBITDA margin was 54.1% compared with the year-ago quarter’s 46%.
SCCO’s Production Details
Copper: Southern Copper mined 238,888 tons of copper in the reported quarter, up 2.1% year over year. Copper sales improved 5.4% year over year to 229,206 tons.
Copper production for the year was 973,851 tons, up 6.9% year over year. This was driven by higher production at Peruvian operations and Mexican operations. Sales rose 5.5% year over year to 938,528 tons.
Molybdenum: The company mined 6,994 tons of molybdenum in the reported quarter, reflecting a year-over-year fall of 2.6%. Sales were 7,008 tons in the quarter under review, down 2.1% from the fourth quarter of 2023.
SCCO produced 28,997 tons of molybdenum in 2024, which was 8.1% higher than that reported in 2023, driven by higher production at each of the mines, barring La Caridad. Molybdenum sales were 29,011 tons, up 7.9% year over year.
Zinc: The company’s zinc production skyrocketed 154.9% year over year to 43,148 tons in the quarter under review. Zinc sales increased 59.4% year over year to 42,120 tons in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Zinc production surged 98.5% year over year to 130,011 tons in 2024. Sales improved 44.6% to 144,139 tons.
Silver: Southern Copper’s silver production improved 18.3% year over year to 5.68 million ounces, while sales rose 21.6% year over year to 5.392 million ounces.
In 2024, silver production improved 14% to 20.983 million ounces from the 2023 levels. Sales improved 15.7% year over year to 20.842 million ounces.
Southern Copper’s Cash Flow & Balance Sheet
SCCO generated net cash from operating activities of $4.42 billion in 2024, up from $3.57 billion in 2023, attributable to higher net income. Cash and cash equivalents were $3.26 billion at the end of 2024 compared with $1.15 billion as of the end of 2023. Long-term debt was $5.76 billion as of Dec 31, 2024, down from the debt of $6.25 billion as of Dec 31, 2023.
SCCO’s Performance in 2024
Southern Copper reported earnings per share of $4.33 in 2024. The bottom line improved 37.9% but missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of earnings of $4.38 per share. Net sales were a record $11.43 billion, which improved 15.5% year over year on higher sales volumes. However, the top line missed the consensus estimate of $11.57 billion.
Southern Copper’s Guidance for 2025
SCCO expects to produce 967,000 tons of copper in 2025, in line with 2024’s performance. Zinc output is expected to be 171,70 tons, which factors in a 32% year-over-year rise. Silver production is likely to be 23 million ounces of silver, 10% higher than that reported in 2024. Molybdenum production is anticipated to dip 10% to 26,200 tons.
SCCO Stock’s Price Performance
Shares of Southern Copper have gained 19.9% in the past year compared with the industry’s 12.4% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Performance of Mining Non-Ferrous Stocks
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX) recorded net income of $274 million or 19 cents per share for fourth-quarter 2024, down 29.3% from $388 million or 27 cents per share in the year-ago quarter.
Sales declined 3.1% year over year to $5.72 billion. The figure missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.92 billion. The company witnessed lower copper sales in the reported quarter.
Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) reported fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of $3.20 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.06. This compares with earnings of $3.58 a year ago.
Centrus Energy posted sales of $151.6 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $105 million. It posted revenues of $104 million in the year-ago quarter.
Southern Copper’s Zacks Rank & Key Pick
Southern Copper currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).
A better-ranked stock from the basic materials space is Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS), currently carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Carpenter Technology’s 2025 earnings is pegged at $6.83 per share. The consensus estimate for 2025 earnings has moved 1% north in the past 60 days. It has an average trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 15.7%. CRS shares have skyrocketed 188% in a year.
https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2417184/southern-copper-q4-earnings-miss-estimates-sales-rise-yy
South32 has announced that it has received federal environmental approval for the Worsley Mine Development Project at the company’s Worsley Alumina operations.
This approval, granted under the Environmental Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act (1999), follows the Western Australian state environmental approval obtained on December 20, 2024.
The Worsley Alumina operation, which encompasses the Boddington bauxite mine, a refinery near Collie, and associated port facilities at Bunbury, is set to expand its production capabilities.
The newly approved project aims to provide access to bauxite reserves crucial for sustaining production levels at Worsley Alumina.
Mining activities in the new bauxite areas, located near existing operations, are scheduled to commence in the fourth quarter of the 2025 financial year (Q4 FY25).
This development is expected to extend Worsley Alumina’s production span until at least the 2036 financial year.
Graham Kerr, CEO of South32, expressed his enthusiasm for the approval, stating: “The Ffderal government’s approval of the Worsley Mine Development Project is a positive outcome for Worsley Alumina and its workforce, the Peel and South West communities, and the local economy.”
He highlighted the operation’s 40-year history and its significant role as one of the largest employers in the region, supporting thousands of workers and contractors.
Kerr also emphasised Worsley Alumina’s commitment to responsible production, noting that the operation has received multiple certifications from the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative for its adherence to global standards in alumina production.
This recognition underscores the importance of alumina as a vital component in aluminium production, a metal critical to the global energy transition.
The company looks forward to executing the project in accordance with the approvals granted by both the federal and Western Australian governments.
Worsley Alumina, which supplies alumina to the Mozal Aluminium smelter in Mozambique, recently achieved the Aluminium Stewardship Initiative (ASI) Chain of Custody V2 (2022) standard certification in November 2024, further solidifying its position as a responsible producer in the industry.
Copper prices retreated from over three-month highs on Monday, with the market focusing on the copper spread on the London Metal Exchange swinging into a premium.
The three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) slid 0.3% to $9,449 a ton by 0814 GMT.
The copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slid 1.0% to 77,030 yuan ($10,616.04).
Short-covering on the LME ahead of contract expiry amid expectations of U.S. duties on copper triggered a sharp move in a key spread last week, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans for reciprocal tariffs, which will not be immediately implemented.
The tariff worries further spurred investors to buy copper on the U.S. COMEX exchange (HGc4) and sell on the LME.
Meanwhile, the premium for U.S. Comex copper futures (HGc2) over the LME contract rocketed to a record high last week.
“Extreme dislocations emerged on Friday, with a record gap between U.S. and global prices. Copper on New York’s Comex spiked, with the premium over those on the London Metal Exchange reaching as high as $1,200/ton during the session. This was more than 10% of the benchmark LME price,” ANZ Research said.
Trump’s plan to impose reciprocal tariffs on every country taxing U.S. imports has stoked concerns of a major global trade war.
Three-month aluminium on the LME was unchanged at $2,637 a ton.
Zinc gained 0.4% to $2,852, lead added 1.1% to $2,005, while tin eased 0.8% at $32,400 and nickel fell 0.4% to $15,410.
SHFE aluminium traded flat at 20,660 yuan a ton, SHFE copper slid 1.0% to 77,030 yuan, nickel slipped 0.2% to 123,860 yuan, zinc shed 0.3% to 23,850 yuan, while lead lost 0.2% to 17,190 yuan, tin was flat at 260,980 yuan.
Source: Reuters
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/copper-retreats-from-3-month-highs-lme-copper-spread-in-focus/
Reuters | February 11, 2025 | 3:16 pm
Cobre Panama mine, the company’s largest copper operation. (Image: First Quantum Minerals.)
Canada’s First Quantum said on Tuesday the final hearing for the Cobre Panama mine under the International Chamber of Commerce proceedings has been moved to February 2026 from September of the current year.
The mine, one of the world’s top sources of copper, was shut down in November 2023, hours after Panama’s Supreme Court declared its contract unconstitutional. The decision to close down the mine was also triggered by environmental protests against the operation.
The Canadian miner also said the government of Panama had applied to the arbitration panel, requesting an extension of its submission dates after the replacement of an external legal counsel and on the basis that the new government required time to assess the situation concerning the mine.
Last year, Reuters reported that the Canadian miner opened a voluntary retirement scheme to workers at the mine, as the company awaited for a government decision on restarting the operation.
https://www.mining.com/web/first-quantums-final-hearings-on-cobre-panama-copper-mine-moved-to-2026/
Anglo American Plc AAUKF entered into a deal to sell its nickel business to MMG Singapore Resources Pte. Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of MMG Limited, for up to $500 million in cash.
The consideration consists of $350 million in upfront cash at completion, up to $100 million in price-linked earnouts, and $50 million in contingent cash based on the Final Investment Decision (FID) for the development projects.
The nickel business includes two ferronickel operations in Brazil, Barro Alto and Codemin, and two high-quality greenfield projects, Jacaré and Morro Sem Boné.
The upfront cash consideration is also subject to standard completion adjustments, with completion expected by third quarter of 2025. The transaction is subject to several conditions, including customary competition and regulatory clearances.
Duncan Wanblad, CEO of Anglo American, stated that the sale is a key step in streamlining the portfolio to focus on copper, premium iron ore, and crop nutrients.
In November 2024, Anglo American agreed to sell its Australian steelmaking coal portfolio to Peabody Energy for up to $3.8 billion.
At that time, the company has set a target of $1 billion in cost savings by 2025 and expects an additional $800 million in recurring pre-tax benefits. The broader restructuring plan includes divesting from coal, platinum, nickel, and diamonds.
Notably, Anglo American's nickel business is well-positioned for both stainless steel and battery value chains, comprising the Barro Alto and Niquelândia mines and the Barro Alto and Codemin ferronickel plants, which produced 39,400 tonnes of nickel in 2024.
The business also includes two promising greenfield projects: Jacaré (300Mt of resources) and Morro Sem Boné (65Mtpotential).
TEMPO.CO, Jakarta - Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) Bahlil Lahadalia stated that PT Freeport Indonesia (PTFI) has committed to completing the construction of its new copper smelter facility by June 2025. This followed the fire incident at PTFI's copper smelter in Gresik, East Java in October 2024.
"Thank God, yesterday, we decided by compromise that the factory will be completed in June (2025). Freeport has submitted its statement, and reports from the police and insurance have also been available," he said when met at the Indonesia Economic Summit event in Jakarta on Wednesday, February 19, 2025.
In addition, Bahlil mentioned that the government will reissue the raw copper export permit for Freeport after it has stalled since last December. According to him, the decision is a solution from the limited meeting held by Prabowo earlier this week.
"Yesterday, we had a limited meeting led by Bapak President, and then we looked for a win-win alternative. The win-win is how to keep Freeport's production running," said Bahlil.
He explained that the reason the government allowed copper exports despite the previous restriction on raw copper exports is the declining income of Freeport. He mentioned that, in any case, 50 percent of Freeport's shares are owned by the state.
In other words, if Freeport's income decreases, then the state's revenue will also decrease. Not only that, he said there are thousands of employees who are potentially laid off if Freeport is unable to export.
Nevertheless, the government still imposes sanctions on Freeport for exporting copper even though its export quota had expired in 2024. "The sanction is an increase in the export tax. So they pay more to the country than before," said Bahlil.
Previously, based on the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 7 of 2023, the export permit for copper concentrate of PT Freeport Indonesia had expired on December 31, 2024. With this decision, they could no longer export raw copper materials this year.
However, at the same time, Freeport experienced a fire at their smelter. This made them unable to process or refine the concentrate. On the other hand, concentrate storage also experienced overcapacity while the permit had not yet been issued.
This condition forced Freeport to reduce their production and automatically reduce income, which had an impact on the state's revenue and the workers there. "If, for example, the stockpile is full, then production will automatically decrease," said ESDM Ministry's Director General of Minerals and Coal, Tri Winarno, at his office on Friday, February 14, 2025.
Dani Iswara contributed to the writing of this article.
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX), one of the largest producers of copper, reported disappointing results in Q4 of 2024, with revenues dropping 3.1% year-over-year to $5.72 billion, and earnings per share of $0.19 down 42% year-over-year. The stock dropped around 12% post the result announcement and has since then recovered slightly. Overall, while FCX’s near-term performance may be impacted by sales disruptions and costs, its long-term outlook remains favorable, driven by strong demand for copper and potential cost-saving measures. We believe Freeport valuation to be around $46 per share, 19% above the current price levels.
How Did FCX Fare In Q4?
While electrification trends and AI infrastructure investments supported demand, weakness in traditional sectors like residential construction and autos had an effect, with the company reporting lower sales. The company’s Indonesian Grasberg mine produced 376 million pounds of copper, falling below estimations, due to operational challenges, including ongoing smelter issues. Additionally, copper exports from Indonesia faced regulatory delays and restrictions. FCX received late approvals in Q4 2024, which impacted shipment volumes. While copper prices remained relatively strong, macroeconomic factors—including a strong U.S. dollar, trade uncertainties, and slower-than-expected growth in China—created headwinds. Having said that, for the full year 2024, the company reported revenue of $25.5 billion, which was up 11% from 2023. However, net income only increased by 2.6% to $1.89 billion, and profit margins fell to 7.4% from 8.1%. Profitability was impacted due to higher costs in certain regions, particularly in North America, where unit net cash costs reached $3.04 per pound, significantly higher than in Indonesia ($1.66 per pound). Separately, if you want upside with a smoother ride than an individual stock, consider the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P, and clocked >91% returns since inception.
Teck Resources Ltd. reported a profit in its latest quarter compared with a loss a year earlier, helped by record copper production.
The Vancouver-based mining company says it earned a profit from continuing operations attributable to shareholders of $385 million or 75 cents per share for the quarter ended Dec. 31.
The result compared with a loss of $167 million or 32 cents per diluted share in the last three months of 2023.
On an adjusted basis, Teck says it earned 45 cents per diluted share from its continuing operations, up from an adjusted profit of four cents per share a year earlier.
Revenue for the quarter totalled $2.8 billion, up from $1.8 billion.
Copper production in the quarter amounted to 122,000 tonnes, up from 103,000 a year earlier, while zinc in concentrate totalled 146,000 tonnes, down from 182,000 tonnes. Refined zinc production totalled 62,000 tonnes, down from 70,000 tonnes a year earlier.
The incremental import duty on steel should be positive for the Indian steel industry, according to Morgan Stanley, as it supports margins and aids in capital expenditure.
There has been increased discussion on anti-dumping cases against all steel imports and not just limited to Chinese steel, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.
The government has already initiated anti-dumping investigations for steel imports from China and Vietnam and is looking to enforce 'safeguard duty' against steel imports, Jefferies said quoting news reports. There is an increased risk that some kind of duty may be levied to support the domestic steel industry, it said.
However, Jefferies believes that any incremental import duty should be positive for the Indian steel industry, citing that it could take domestic steel prices up, driving margins and capex. Although the entire industry should benefit, companies with a greater share of flats in their product mix could be advantaged, it said.
A 15% safeguard duty may drive domestic hot rolled coil prices up by 10% and may take up fiscal Ebitda by 15-40%, the brokerage said.
European hot rolled coil prices remained stable Feb. 14, while sources shared increasingly optimistic outlooks on price trajectory amid lingering uncertainty.
Market participants pointed towards recent news of US tariffs, and upcoming elections in Germany as increasingly bullish factors in the market, as import interest continued to remain poor.
“Demand is restarting everywhere but in Germany, which is seeing a lot less activity,” a mill source said. “German buyers want to postpone big bookings until after the election, but with the news [sanctions] from the US, there is a good argument for higher prices.”
A seller source also pointed to an increase in activity into the second quarter.
“We are seeing activity for inquiries and our bids are moving closer to our asking prices. Momentum is building,” he said.
Platts assessed the Northwest European domestic HRC price at Eur600/mt ex-works Ruhr, stable Feb. 14, and the South European domestic HRC price at Eur595/mt ex-works Italy, also stable day over day.
“I see a big improvement in business, but customers are nervous about what is happening,” a mid-stream buyer said. “There has been a big price increase, and due to hardly any imports mills expect prices to climb further in the coming weeks, and that there will be shortages when the import duties take effect.”
Platts assessed import HRC prices at Eur545/mt CIF Antwerp and Eur545/mt CIF Italy, both unchanged day over day, as offers remained too high to spark buying interest.
Other sources cited stable fundamentals, arguing that demand drivers have not shifted significantly despite higher mill offers in recent weeks.
“Sentiment remains bullish despite demand still being relatively week,” a distributor said.
The market also saw further debate surrounding the upcoming Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, following a conference in Paris organized by the European Commission Feb. 13.
Following the event, the European Steel Association, or Eurofer renewed calls for “major improvements” to CBAM, or the legislation will “fail to provide adequate protection against carbon leakage.”
In a statement published Feb. 13, Eurofer’s list of suggested changes included extending CBAM’s scope to steel-intensive downstream products and a structural solution to preserve European exports.
S&P Global Platts assessed Northwest European hot-rolled coil carbon-accounted at Eur670/mt ex-works Ruhr Feb. 14, stable on the day. Although spot demand for carbon-accounted material has remained low, seller sources reported significant volumes and growing interest for material in long-term contracts.
Platts is part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
https://eurometal.net/eu-hrc-prices-move-sideways-sources-point-to-increasing-activity/
Northern European wire rod prices edged upward in the week to Wednesday February 12 amid increasing scrap and electricity costs, sources told Fastmarkets.
Northern European rebar prices widened upward, as customers in the Netherlands and Austria accepted small price rises amid high input costs. But, in Germany, unchanged prices were reported amid ongoing weak demand.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ weekly price assessment for steel reinforcing bar (rebar), domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €620-660 ($643-685) per tonne on Wednesday, widening upward by €20 per tonne from €620-640 per tonne on February 5.
In Germany, workable prices for rebar were reported around €620-640 per tonne. Meanwhile, in the Netherlands and Austria, higher prices of €630-660 per tonne were reported.
“The rebar market is very quiet at the moment, and there is minimal activity and very little appetite either for domestic stock or for imports,” a buyer source told Fastmarkets.
Meanwhile, tradeable prices for rebar import deals were reported at €560-580 per tonne CFR, while offers were reported at much higher levels — €590-600 per tonne CFR.
Bullish scrap costs put further pressure on mill margins, Fastmarkets heard.
International scrap prices continued to increase amid a bullish outlook in the US domestic scrap market, following Donald Trump becoming president and his push for a protectionist agenda.
International scrap prices further increased as a result of improved consumption for domestic rebar in Turkey putting additional upward pressure on domestic scrap prices, Fastmarkets heard.
As a result, Fastmarkets’ calculation of its daily index for steel scrap, HMS 1&2 (80:20 mix), North Europe origin, cfr Turkey was $353.17 per tonne on Wednesday, up from $347.28 per tonne on February 5.
Fastmarkets’ corresponding weekly price assessment for steel wire rod (mesh quality), domestic, delivered Northern Europe was €610-625 per tonne on Wednesday, narrowing week on week from €600-635 per tonne.
Deals for wire rod were reported at higher prices — €610-625 per tonne.
https://eurometal.net/northern-european-rebar-market-depressed-amid-weak-demand/
Equity markets have seen sharp corrections over the past few months as investors are worried about the impact US trade and economic policies would have on global markets. Recently, US President Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium. How will that impact Indian companies? Well, there is good news and not-so-good news.
A key thing to note is India's direct steel exports to the US are relatively low, constituting just about 4 per cent of its total exports in 2024, pointed out Ratings agency CAREEdge. At the same time, steel demand in India remains good, growing around 10-13 per cent over the financial years 2022-2024, it added.
However, there could very well be an indirect impact on the domestic steel industry if, in the wake of the tariffs, countries, which are major steel exporters, divert some of their production to India.
Several Asian countries, such as South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, China, and Vietnam, contributed significantly to steel exports to the US market.
"Weakening demand in major steel-consuming economies has led to an over-supply situation, thereby adding pressure on realisations," pointed out CAREEdge.
Global export prices for hot rolled coil have averaged around $535 per tonne during 2024, down from around $788 per tonne in 2022, it pointed out.
"An increase in import tariff by the US could result in the diversion of surplus production by major Asian steel manufacturing countries to Indian markets, which is likely to keep realisations under check," said CAREEdge.
This is certainly not good news, considering that between the first ten months of the current financial year, realisations of the domestic steel industry had already moderated with growing imports of steel.
In aluminium, its a different situation altogether. Here, India is a major exporter of primary aluminium; in 2024, close to 40 per cent of our domestic aluminium production was exported. Also, according to CAREEdge, India's direct aluminium exports to the US were around 6-8 per cent.
To that extent, the impact of the tariff hike on the export volumes and the realisations for Indian aluminium producers will be higher than that on steel producers, it said.
However, Indian companies do enjoy an advantage.
"India remains one of the lowest-cost aluminium producers globally, mainly on account of the availability of quality bauxite reserves, which improves India’s cost competitiveness in the global market, pointed out CAREEdge.
This can provide greater cushion to domestic aluminium producers to meet the increased competition from any over-supply scenario arising from the imposition of tariffs by the US.
Posted on 17 Feb 2025
Vietnamese HRC market weakens on poor demand
The Vietnamese re-rolling hot rolled coil import market remains subdued amid weak demand, Kallanish notes.
Continued rumours about a pending anti-dumping HRC case has placed the import market in a “dilemma,” a Vietnamese trader says.
Market chatter says that Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry & Trade will soon announce its preliminary anti-dumping findings on Chinese HRC this month and with the possibility of a duty margin of 15%-25%. Domestic HRC demand is slowing down because of the imminent US tariffs on Vietnamese coated steel, he adds.
An import offer for Chinese 2mm and up thickness SAE 1006 HRC is heard at $485/t cfr Vietnam, a Hanoi trader reports. Others also hear Chinese 2,000mm width 3-12mm thickness Q235 HRC for end-March shipment offered at $483-485/t cfr. For the 1,500mm width HRC from China, which are targeted in the AD case, offers for 3mm base Q195 HRC are at $465/t cfr and for 3-12mm Q235B grade HRC at $470/t cfr.
Indonesia’s Dexin was not offering HRC in the Vietnamese market last week because current prices in Vietnam are “relatively low,” an informed source says. It is instead awaiting buyers to indicate their buying price targets. The Sulawesi-based mill has started producing skin-passed HRC and it is accepting orders for March and April shipments, the source says. Its skin-passed HRC products would have a $5/t extra charge.
Kallanish assessed SAE grade 2-2.7mm thickness HRC at $485/t cfr Vietnam, $7.5/t lower week-on-week.
On 11 February, domestic producer Formosa Ha Tinh Steel (FHS) announced a $15/t cut for its domestic monthly HRC prices for April shipment. For bookings of 20,000t and more, the mill’s non-skin passed HRC was set at VND 12,597/kg ($494/t) cfr southern Vietnam. demand is cited as the main reason for the price drop (see Kallanish passim).
Competitor Hoa Phat hat lowered its domestic HRC prices on 7 February to $507/t cfr southern Vietnam for non-skin passed SAE1006 or SS400 grade HRC for April delivery.
"Both FHS and Hoa Phat allocated only small quantities for the export market," another Vietnamese trader says. Hoa Phat sold out all its local allocations and FHS is almost sold out, he says. Both mills’ prices are "cheap", and he did not hear of any discounts given to customers.
Source:Kallanish
During the month, Italian steelmakers produced 1.69 million tons of steel
Italian metallurgical enterprises increased steel production by 2.7% in January 2025 compared to January 2024, to 1.69 million tons. This is reported by SteelOrbis with reference to data from the Italian Federation of Steelworkers Federacciai.
Compared to the previous month, production volumes increased by 40.9%, mainly due to a low comparison base.
Long products production in January amounted to 862 thousand tons, up 2.7% y/y, and flat products production amounted to 780 thousand tons (-1.9% y/y).
As GMK Center reported earlier, in 2024, Italy decreased steel production by 5% compared to 2023, to 20 million tons. In December 2024, Italian steelmakers reduced steel production by 8.8% compared to December 2023 and by 33.4% – to 1.199 million tons.
Long products production for the year amounted to 11.7 million tonnes, down 0.2% compared to 2023, and flat products production amounted to 8.6 million tonnes (-9.7% y/y). Thus, long products output experienced only a slight decline, supported by increased construction activity. At the same time, the weakness of the automotive sector and industry, as well as high volumes of competitive imports (5.58 million tons in January-October 2024), had a negative impact on flat products production.
Overall, steel production in the European Union increased by 2.6% in 2024 compared to 2023 – to 129.5 million tons. Global steel production for the year amounted to 1.84 billion tons, down 0.9% year-on-year.
https://gmk.center/en/news/italy-increased-steel-production-by-2-7-y-y-in-january/
Neath Port Talbot Council’s Planning Committee has granted approval for Tata Steel UK’s plans to develop modern Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking in Port Talbot.
Rajesh Nair, CEO of Tata Steel UK, described the approval as a significant milestone amid a challenging global market. He confirmed the company’s commitment to commence large-scale site work this summer, with the EAF set to begin operations by the end of 2027.
“The £1.25 billion investment marks the most substantial investment in the UK steel industry in decades. This facility will ensure high-quality steel production, preserve thousands of jobs, and safeguard steelmaking in Port Talbot for future generations,” Nair stated.
The project, supported by £500 million in UK Government funding, will help secure 5,000 Tata Steel UK jobs while reducing on-site CO2 emissions by 90% compared to previous blast furnace-based operations—equivalent to 1.5% of the UK’s total direct CO2 emissions.
Jonathan Reynolds, Secretary of Business and Trade, hailed the approval as a major step toward securing a sustainable future for steel production in South Wales. He emphasized that the agreement with Tata Steel, alongside the next phase of the UK’s Plan for Steel, will provide the stability needed to drive growth and attract investment.
“This decision ensures security for Port Talbot’s green steel transition and offers the certainty Welsh steelmaking needs to thrive,” Reynolds said.
Tata Steel UK has been actively preparing for the transition. In December, it signed a deal with JCB to supply green steel, and last month, it appointed Sir Robert McAlpine as the project’s main works contractor. Additionally, in October, the company selected Tenova, a global leader in metals technology, to supply the new furnace.
HBL
Trade-level hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices across India edged down by up to INR 300/tonne (t) w-o-w to INR 47,300-49,700/t. Conversely, cold-rolled coil (CRC) prices witnessed mixed trends w-o-w, settling at INR 52,600-56,000/t ($617-671/t) across markets.
BigMint's benchmark assessment (bi-weekly) for HRCs (IS2062, Gr E250, 2.5-8 mm/CTL) declined marginally by INR 200/t w-o-w to INR 48,300/t ($549/t) on 19 February 2025. However, CRC (IS513, Gr O, 0.9 mm/CTL) prices increased by INR 300/t w-o-w to INR 55,100/t ($628/t). These prices are quoted ex-Mumbai for the distributor-to-dealer segment and exclude 18% GST.
Market updates
Trade segment sees marginal price drop: The market experienced a downturn, characterised by reduced sales volumes and a shift towards need-based, minimal-quantity purchases. This forced suppliers to cut prices.
Additionally, there are rumours of planned maintenance shutdowns at Tata Steel's Kalinganagar, Meramandali, and Jamshedpur plants. Notably, the Jamshedpur facility is expected to undergo maintenance for an extended period.
"Demand in the trade market is severely depressed. Price elasticity is a critical factor, as sales are highly responsive to even minor adjustments in tags. The market is under considerable strain, and the absence of price support announcements from mills is compounding the current difficulties," said a market participant.
"We are concerned that continued adverse conditions may lead to increased import activity," he added.
Import trends: Imports of bulk HRCs and plates stood at 308,819 t till 17 February, as per vessel line-up data maintained with BigMint. It is expected that an additional 64,535 t will be imported by the month-end and 75,900 t in the first week of March.
Reports indicate that deals have been finalised for 2,000 t of HRCs at $530/t CFR Chennai and 30,000 t at $485-490/t CFR Mumbai.
Export offers show mixed trends: BigMint's India hot-rolled coil (HRC, SAE1006) export index for the Middle East (ME) and Vietnam remained stable w-o-w. However, export offers to Europe declined w-o-w due to ongoing anti-dumping probes.
Outlook
The market remains weak, and suppliers are implementing marginal price cuts amid subdued demand and minimal-quantity purchasing. However, Tata Steel's planned maintenance shutdowns may tighten supply, supporting prices. Hence, prices are expected to remain range-bound.
Imports account for more than 34.7% or 103 thousand tons
In January 2025, Ukraine increased consumption of steel products (rolled and semi-finished products) by 115.6% compared to January 2024, up to 297.1 thousand tons. This is evidenced by the data of Ukrmetprom.
During the month, 103 thousand tons of steel products were imported to Ukraine, up 27.1% compared to January 2024. Imports account for 34.1% of the domestic rolled steel consumption market in the country. The share of the import component in domestic consumption of steel products increased by 7.58 percentage points y/y.
The structure of imports is characterized by a significant dominance of flat products over long products – 86.5% and 10.8%, respectively. In January 2024, the dominance of flat products over long products was also significant – 83.9% and 15.2%, respectively.
In total, Ukrainian steelmakers produced 430.8 thousand tons of rolled products in the month, up 7.2% year-on-year. The company exported 286.1 thousand tons of steel products, down 28.5% y/y.
The domestic market received 194.1 thousand tons of rolled and semi-finished products, up 550% y/y. In January, Ukrainian steelmakers significantly increased shipments to the domestic market, with exports accounting for 59.6% of total output in the month, compared to 88.4% a year ago.
The share of flat products in export deliveries increased to 54.3%, up from 33.6% a year earlier. The share of long products in exports increased to 17.4% from 10.8%. At the same time, the share of semi-finished products fell to 28.2% from 55.6%.
The main export markets for Ukrainian rolled steel in January 2025, according to the State Customs Service, are the European Union (69.6%), the rest of Europe (12.4%) and Africa (7.7%). Among steel importers, the first place is occupied by other European countries (61.3%), followed by the EU (24.7%), and the third – by Asian countries (13.8%).
As GMK Center reported earlier, consumption of steel products in Ukraine in 2024 decreased by 6.26% year-on-year – to 3.288 million tons. Over the year, 1.235 million tons of steel products were imported, up 10.2% y/y, and about 4.17 million tons were exported, up 39.7% y/y. Domestic production amounted to 6.22 million tons (+15.8% y/y).
The global long steel products market continues to be very difficult to operate in, according to Irepas, the international association for producers and exporters of rebar. Its latest short-term outlook expects the next quarter to be very unpredictable and unstable.
Irepas says the global long steel products market is under very strong pressure because of Chinese exports, exacerbated by the arrival of President Donald Trump in the White House bringing ‘uncertainty, volatility and a lack of visibility’.
‘It seems like the situation will get even worse until the dust settles and his goals are clearly understood. So far, Trump’s announcements have given rise to concerns about inflation, which will slow down interest rate cuts.’
Waiting game
Specifically, the outlook says the US market is awaiting the outcome of decisions already made by the White House and others under consideration or delayed for further negotiations.
‘New infrastructure projects are on hold, amid the government freeze on spending. Interest rates have not come down and there is no clear sign for the near future, thus delaying many projects and also purchases by would-be home buyers. Labour shortages in the construction sector are becoming a near certainty, causing delays and higher costs for construction developments.’
Meanwhile, the outlook believes the industry must await China’s policy in the year ahead, asking whether it steel exports will continue to exceed 100 million tonnes or slow down to help stabilise the global market.
EU demand low
In Europe, theEU steel market is reported to be suffering from continuing low demand for long products, with European mills locked in a cycle of poor demand and high costs. Meanwhile, energy prices in Europe are back up at levels not seen since 2022.
Higher costs will force long steel producers in the EU to increase prices and to shut down more capacities in 2025, Irepas maintains. The EU’s import quota for ‘all other countries’ was exhausted early at the start of the year, with large volumes imported by Bulgaria and Romania. This means there will be no more imports from such countries.
Mills in the long steel products market are being forced to lower their capacity utilisation rates, which will negatively affect their cost of production. The outlook warns of a chain reaction of displaced export capacities due to Chinese exports.
In conclusion, Irepas says: ‘Under these circumstances, the current status of the market can be described as unstable and very difficult to operate in. The outlook for the next quarter is very unpredictable and unstable.’
South Korea Moves to Counter Cheaper Chinese Steel Imports
South Korea is moving to impose substantial tariffs on Chinese steel imports to counter a surge in lower-priced products that is impacting domestic steelmakers. According to Bloomberg, the South Korean government aims to levy provisional tariffs of up to 38.02% on hot-rolled steel plates from China, following a preliminary investigation by the trade ministry. This initiative mirrors recent actions by the previous Trump administration in the United States.
The proposed tariff measures include nearly a 28% duty on imports from Baoshan Iron & Steel Co. and approximately 38% on other suppliers, including Hunan Valin Xiangtang Iron and Steel Co. These tariffs will be enforced pending approval from the South Korean finance ministry. South Korea's Hyundai Steel Co. and other companies have reported financial strains due to a surge of inexpensive steel imports from China and Japan, with Hyundai even lodging a formal complaint to the government.
China's steel industry is currently grappling with excess production, exacerbated by a slowdown in property demand. Despite reduced domestic needs, China's steel exports soared to a nine-year peak last year. According to IndexBox, China exported flat hot-rolled steel coils worth $14.2 billion in 2024, up from $11.9 billion in 2023. Of those exports in 2023, South Korea alone imported approximately $957.9 million worth, highlighting the substantial trade flow between the two nations.
On the global front, China's top export markets for these steel products included Vietnam, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia in 2023. Meanwhile, imports of flat hot-rolled steel coils into China decreased, standing at $661.2 million in 2024 compared to $818 million the previous year, with Japan and South Korea being leading import sources.
The ongoing international demand and China's expansive production cycle underline the critical balancing act that trade policies must address to maintain fair competition in the global steel market.
Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/south-korea-moves-to-counter-cheaper-chinese-steel-imports/
Community says its proposal will ensure the continued operation of two blast furnaces while two new electric furnaces are constructed.
A union has unveiled a plan it believes will secure the future of a steelworks.
Community said its proposal would ensure the continued operation of two existing blast furnaces at the British Steel site in Scunthorpe while two new electric arc furnaces (EAFs) are constructed.
The union said the plan would secure a move towards greener steelmaking, requiring an additional £200 million of Government support to mitigate carbon costs in the interim period.
Community general secretary Roy Rickhuss said: “The new plan from our experts at Syndex lays out the roadmap towards a just transition for British Steel in Scunthorpe, which is a site of huge strategic importance to the UK as our last remaining primary steelmaking site.
“Were Scunthorpe steelworks to close, the UK would become the only G7 country without domestic steelmaking capacity – that would represent a huge risk to national security and sovereignty, with the country becoming reliant on dirty imports from overseas. That is not something we should ever be willing to accept.
“The new expert-led proposal for British Steel has the support of all the steel unions and offers an achievable and potentially profitable solution for decarbonising Scunthorpe, provided that there is an injection of support on carbon costs over the transition period.
“By maintaining blast furnace production whilst new technologies are introduced on-site, the new plan for Scunthorpe would avoid the need for a destructive cliff-edge for the workforce, and it provides long-term certainty for the steelworks and the wider community it supports.”
A British Steel spokesperson said: “British Steel is in active discussions with the UK government about the future of our steelmaking operations. Our trade union partners will be an important part of that future, and we welcome their contribution to the debate in the Syndex report.”
Steel giant Tata has shut down blast furnaces at its site in Port Talbot, south Wales and is switching to producing steel with an electric arc furnace.
A Department for Business and Trade spokesperson said: “This Government will not allow the end of steelmaking in the UK.
“That’s why we’ve committed up to £2.5 billion of investment to rebuild the industry and our plan for steel consultation, launched last week, will examine the long-term issues facing the industry.
“The Business Secretary and Industry Minister met British Steel and Jingye recently, and we continue to work in partnership with trade unions and businesses to secure a green steel transition that’s right for the workforce, represents a good investment for taxpayers, and safeguards the future of the steel industry in Britain.”
BHP reported a 23% decline in its first-half profit as lower prices for iron ore owing to slowing demand from China’s property sector offset higher contributions from copper mining, said The Times.
The Australian group reported underlying attributable profit of $5.08bn for the six months to the end of December, below analyst estimates of $5.39bn and lower than the $6.57bn reported last year.
It declared an interim dividend of 50 cents per share, in line with forecasts, but below the 72 cents per share a year ago and the lowest payout since 2017.
The company sounded a cautiously optimistic note about demand prospects for its two main products, the steel ingredient iron ore, and copper, which has grown to account for nearly half of its profits.
“Central banks’ ongoing rate cuts are expected to translate into a recovery for steel and copper demand across the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development in the near term,” the miner said.
“However, potential trade tensions present a risk to the recovery in developed economies and across the globe.”
Earnings from iron ore – BHP’s biggest profit-generating commodity – declined 26% to $7.2bn as the average realised price fell to $81.11 per ton from $103.7 a year ago, said The Times.
Copper’s underlying operating earnings jumped 44% to $5bn as tight fundamentals, Chinese stimulus plans and interest rate cuts in the US kept copper prices elevated.
“The demand for BHP products remains strong despite global economic and trade uncertainties, with early signs of recovery in China, resilient economic performance in the US and strong growth in India,” said Mike Henry, CEO of BHP.
https://www.miningmx.com/trending/60044-bhp-hit-by-slump-in-iron-ore/
Friedland at the Investing in African Mining Indaba in Cape Town. (Photo by Henry Lazenby.
Mining billionaire Robert Friedland’s latest venture, iron ore producer Ivanhoe Atlantic Inc., is seeking to raise as much as A$300 million ($190 million) from an initial public offering in Australia, people familiar with the matter said.
Proceeds will be used to fund the development of the Kon Kweni project in Guinea, a major undeveloped iron ore deposit in West Africa previously known as Nimba. Rio Tinto Group’s giant Simandou iron ore project, also in Guinea, is expected to begin production this year.
The listing, expected in May, aims to raise A$200 to A$300 million, the people said, asking not to be named as the discussions are private. That range would put it among the largest floats expected for the Australian Stock Exchange this year.
In 2024, four of Australia’s top five IPOs raised between A$303 million and A$337 million. The exception was data center operator DigiCo Infrastructure REIT, which floated in December and raised A$2 billion.
“We are working through a process to target an ASX listing in mid-2025 but are not able to confirm quantum or valuation at this stage,” an Ivanhoe Atlantic spokesperson told Bloomberg, in response to emailed questions.
The miner, which is not connected with Friedland’s Toronto-listed Ivanhoe Mines, has said it chose Australia in an effort to make the most of a mining investment community that is well-versed in the steel-making ingredient iron ore, Australia’s top export. Ivanhoe’s prospectus is currently being finalized.
Friedland is one of the most prominent promoters in mining. He made a name for himself by selling the giant Canadian copper-nickel project Voisey’s Bay in 1996, and later solidified his position with the Oyu Tolgoi deposit in Mongolia, one of the largest copper mines in the world — today owned by Rio.
He won the rights to the high-grade deposit that is now Kon Kweni in 2019, taking over from a consortium including BHP Group after it was left undeveloped for years.
BMO, Euroz Hartleys Group and Aitken Mount Capital Partners have been appointed as joint lead managers in the offering, working alongside law firm Thomson Greer.
Separately to Ivanhoe Atlantic, Friedland is co-chair of ASX-listed battery raw materials producer Sunrise Energy Metals Ltd.
(By Paul-Alain Hunt)
https://www.mining.com/web/billionaire-friedlands-iron-ore-miner-seeks-up-to-190m-in-australia-ipo/
Anglo American's South African (SA) iron ore business wants private investors to run a rail line that is crucial for shipments of the steelmaking ingredient to export markets, it said this Tuesday.
The 861 km rail line, owned and operated by struggling state company Transnet, runs from Kumba Iron Ore's Sishen mine in SA's Northern Cape province to Saldanha port.
However, the line has been beset by derailments and Transnet's balance sheet "constraints" mean it is unable to run the line efficiently, said Kumba Chief Executive Officer Mpumi Zikalala.
Kumba, Africa's top iron ore miner, has scaled down production after stockpiles rose to 7.5 million metric tons last year from 7.1 million tons the previous year.
"We believe that the entire line could be concessioned to a player who will be able to purely focus on this line and that could make a massive impact," Zikalala said on a media call after Kumba reported a 45% slide in annual earnings.
Headline earnings per share dropped to $2.11 hit by lower prices and the rising iron ore stockpiles caused by lack of rail capacity, the company said.
--Reuters--
The key importers of raw materials are Poland and Slovakia
In 2024, steelmakers in the European Union increased imports of iron ore from Ukraine by 4.2% compared to 2023, to 13.969 million tons. This is evidenced by GMK Center’s calculations based on Eurostat data.
The key importers of raw materials of Ukrainian origin are Poland – 4.79 million tons, up 42.2% compared to 2023, Slovakia – 4.67 million tons (-7.1% y/y), and the Czech Republic – 2.79 million tons (-28.4% y/y). In 2024, the Netherlands increased its imports of iron ore from Ukraine by 84.2% y/y – to 660.11 thousand tons.
In December 2024, the EU imported 1.09 million tons of iron ore, up 3.7% compared to December 2023 and 26.3% more than in December 2023. Poland consumed 384.93 thousand tons over the month (+98.7% y/y, +13.6% m/m), Slovakia – 468.59 thousand tons (+10.7% y/y, +86.6% m/m), Czech Republic – 235.91 thousand tons (+10.9% y/y, +42.8% m/m).
In total, the EU imported 74.93 million tons of iron ore from third countries in 2024, up 2.6% compared to 2023. In December, these volumes amounted to 5.18 million tons, which is 1.7% less than in December 2023 and 3.6% less than in the previous month. The largest importer is the Netherlands – 26.59 million tons (+16.5% y/y).
As GMK Center reported earlier, in 2023, the EU increased its imports of iron ore from Ukraine by 3.7% compared to 2022, up to 13.4 million tons. In total, European consumers imported 72.75 million tons of ore from third countries, down 11% y/y. Ukraine accounted for more than 18% of the total imports of iron ore to the EU.
https://gmk.center/en/news/the-eu-imported-13-97-million-tons-of-iron-ore-from-ukraine-in-2024/
Vale booked a $1.4bn (8.02bn reais) impairment loss related to operations in the Thompson Nickel Belt and a $540m impairment on the Voisey’s Bay mine extension. Credit: SERGIO V S RANGEL/Shutterstock.
Brazil-based iron ore producer Vale has reported a net loss of $694m in the fourth quarter of 2024 (Q4 2024), primarily attributed to impairments on base metals assets in Canada.
The company recorded a $1.4bn impairment loss related to its operation in the Thompson Nickel Belt and a $540m impairment on the Voisey’s Bay mine extension.
Excluding these impairments and one-offs, Vale’s net profit for the quarter would have been $872m, which is still a 64% drop year-on-year.
Despite this setback, Vale has approved shareholder remuneration totalling $1.98bn, to be paid in March 2025, which corresponds to an annualised dividend yield of 10.4%.
Additionally, the company has extended its share buyback programme by 18 months, allowing for the repurchase of up to 120 million shares.
The company’s adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) for the quarter was $3.79bn, a 41% decrease from the same period last year. Net revenue for the quarter was reported at $10.1bn, a decrease of 22%.
Despite a nearly 5% decline in quarterly iron ore output compared with the previous year, Vale achieved its highest annual production since 2018. This production strategy is focused on prioritising higher-margin products.
Vale CEO Gustavo Pimenta said: “We are pleased to report a strong operational and financial performance in 2024, underscored by the highest iron ore production since 2018 and record copper production at Salobo. Our disciplined approach to cost and operational efficiency has driven significant improvements, with our C1 at $18.8/t (per tonne) in Q4, the lowest level since 2022.
“Our robust and flexible portfolio, disciplined capital allocation approach and evolving performance culture will enable us to deliver long-term value to all our stakeholders. We are enhancing our institutional relationships and ensuring that we leave a positive impact on society and the environment.”
Vale revised its projected capital expenditures for the current year, reducing the forecast from approximately $6.5bn to around $5.9bn. This adjustment is mainly due to lower planned investments in growth and energy-transition metals.
Earlier this week, Vale signed a $138m (A$216.32m) development agreement with Cyclone Metals for the development of the Iron Bear iron ore project in Canada.
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/vale-q4-financial-results/
Iron ore futures saw significant increases due to robust steel consumption in China. As the world's largest consumer of steel, China's demand has heavily influenced commodity markets.
A key factor in this surge was a 163% increase in rebar consumption in China, which reached 1.69 million tons as of February 20. Analysts have pointed out that steel consumption has significantly exceeded expectations, driving the ferrous market's sharp increases.
Despite the growth, market volatility remains due to uncertainties around China's monetary stimulus measures, where authorities have kept benchmark lending rates unchanged. This uncertainty affects overall market stability and investment decisions.
Rising ore prices temporarily relieve major producers like Rio Tinto, BHP, Fortescue, and Vale, who have previously faced pressures from declining prices. Beyond iron ore, other steelmaking ingredients such as coking coal and coke have also seen price increases on the Dalian Commodity Exchange.
Additionally, the Shanghai Futures Exchange noted price gains in rebar, hot-rolled coil, wire rod, and stainless steel, further highlighting the strength of the steel market in China amid current trends.
https://www.asktraders.com/analysis/iron-ore-futures-rise-as-steel-demand-grows/
BHP, the largest Australian mining company, has slashed its interim dividend to an eight-year low amid a slowdown in Chinese demand for iron ore shipments and the threat of fresh trade tensions looming over economies across the globe.
Melbourne-based BHP on Tuesday said its underlying profit had plunged more than 20 per cent to $US5.08 billion ($8 billion) in the six months to December 31, reflecting declines in the prices it earned from selling iron ore and coking coal to the steel-making industry.
Shareholders would receive a US50¢ (79¢) half-year dividend on March 27, BHP said, which was down 30 per cent on the same time a year earlier. It is also the minimum payable under the miner’s policy of returning at least 50 per cent of underlying earnings.
For years, booming demand from Chinese steel mills, which process iron ore in steel-making furnaces to churn out molten pig iron, have delivered mega profits for Australian miners BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, and cemented iron ore’s position as the nation’s most lucrative export.
The state is expected to seek compensation from Fortescue if the claim is approved. Credit: Masmikha/Shutterstock.
The Yindjibarndi Ngurra Aboriginal Corporation (YNAC) has filed a compensation claim against the state of Western Australia (WA), seeking A$1.8bn ($1.1bn) for damages to land and culture due to iron ore mining activities at the Solomon mining hub.
WA is a major global supplier of iron ore, accounting for around half of the world’s sea-borne supply.
The claim includes A$1bn for cultural damage and A$678m for economic loss, according to the Federal Court of Australia filings.
The case is significant as it could set a precedent for future claims related to past damages.
The YNAC is targeting the state government for authorising the mining activities, which may lead to the state seeking reimbursement from Fortescue, the world’s fourth-largest iron ore miner, reported Reuters.
Fortescue has acknowledged the Yindjibarndi People’s right to compensation but disagrees on the amount.
“Fortescue accepts that the Yindjibarndi People are entitled to compensation, however, the parties disagree on the amount of that compensation,” Fortescue mentioned in a statement to Reuters.
The state government, in its final submission, argued that the total compensation for economic loss should be A$128,114 and A$92,957 in interest.
It suggested that a fair award for cultural loss would be between A$5m and A$10m, which it believes reflects Australian community standards.
The WA government department responsible for Aboriginal heritage has refrained from commenting due to the ongoing legal proceedings. YNAC has also declined to comment further.
The Federal Court is currently hearing arguments, with a decision not expected until later in the year.
Filings indicate that the Solomon mine has caused existential damage to the Yindjibarndi people by destroying more than 285 archaeological sites and six Dreaming tracks, crucial to Australia’s understanding of human settlement dating back 40,000–45,000 years.
In 2017, the Yindjibarndi group won exclusive native title rights over the land encompassing the Solomon mining hub, which began operations in 2012 and has a capacity of up to 80 million tonnes of iron ore annually.
Native titles recognise indigenous rights to land in Australia.
This case follows the 2020 destruction of Juukan Gorge rock shelters by Rio Tinto, which caused international outrage and led to executive resignations.
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/aboriginal-group-compensation-western-australia/
