Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled to meet CEOs of global companies as the Chinese economy is struggling due to the economic crisis and a decrease in foreign investment. The Financial Times (FT) reported on the 14th (local time) that President Xi plans to meet with CEOs participating in the China Development Forum (CDF) in Beijing, China, from the 23rd to the 24th.
According to multiple sources, Xi will meet with CEOs on the 28th, including about 20 CEOs from overseas companies.
Last year, President Xi also met with about 20 CEOs and other U.S. economic and academic figures who participated in the forum on March 27, two days after the CDF was held.
Businessmen from various countries, including the UK and Europe, are expected to attend this year's meeting compared to last year, an official said.
The list of CDF invitees includes 72 CEOs of global companies, including Stephen Schwartzman, founder of Blackstone, the world's largest private equity fund, Albert Bourla of U.S. pharmaceutical company Pfizer, and Amin Nasser of Saudi Arabia's state-owned oil company Aramco.
Established in 2000, the CDF is an annual event in which China invites major business figures from around the world to discuss current economic issues and seek investment.
[Reporter Kim Jae Kwan]
Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at AngloGold Ashanti (AU), which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.
Set to Beat the Market?
In order to see if AU is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this gold miner holds up.
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It's also helpful to compare a security to its industry; this can show investors the best companies in a particular area.
For AU, shares are up 2.38% over the past week while the Zacks Mining - Gold industry is up 3.64% over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 0.12% compares favorably with the industry's 4.82% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Shares of AngloGold Ashanti have increased 34.85% over the past quarter, and have gained 46.43% in the last year. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has only moved -6.51% and 10.78%, respectively.
Investors should also pay attention to AU's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. AU is currently averaging 2,505,877 shares for the last 20 days.
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score also takes into account trends in estimate revisions, in addition to price changes. Please note that estimate revision trends remain at the core of Zacks Rank as well. A nice path here can help show promise, and we have recently been seeing that with AU.
Over the past two months, 1 earnings estimate moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost AU's consensus estimate, increasing from $3.07 to $3.83 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 1 estimate has moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom Line
Taking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that AU is a #1 (Strong Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep AngloGold Ashanti on your short list.
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters before boarding Air Force One as he departs from Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, D.C., on March 14, 2025.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with more than a dozen oil industry executives at the White House on Wednesday afternoon to discuss his energy agenda, a senior administration official told CNBC.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright will also attend the meeting, the official said. Burgum leads Trump's National Energy Dominance Council. Wright serves as vice chair of the interagency body.
The 15 executives attending the White House meeting are affiliated with industry lobby group the American Petroleum Institute, the official said. They will discuss Trump's "energy dominance" agenda, artificial intelligence and data centers, as well as meeting rising energy demand in the U.S., the official said.
A spokesperson for API said those attending the meeting are members of the group's executive committee without disclosing names.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth, ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance, Marathon Petroleum CEO Maryann Mannen and Phillips 66 CEO Mark Lashier are members of the committee, according to public biographies of the executives. The committee has up to 15 members, according to API tax filings.
Exxon and Chevron declined to comment.
Trump has made energy central to his agenda, with a focus on boosting fossil fuel production, and has ditched the Biden administration's commitments to fight climate change.
API wants the Trump administration to increase leases for oil and gas drilling on federal lands and waters, make pipeline permitting easier and expedite approvals for new liquified natural gas exports, according to a roadmap released by the lobby group.
Burgum, a former North Dakota governor, made clear to oil and gas executives at an energy conference in Houston last week that the Trump administration intends to make it as easy as possible for the oil and gas industry to drill on federal lands and waters.
U.S. crude oil prices have pulled back about 13% since Trump took office, as his tariffs have raised fears of a recession that could crimp demand. An OPEC+ decision to increase production starting in April has also weighed on prices.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Thursday that the oil market is discounting President Donald Trump's push to produce more crude and gas in the United States.
"We've seen a market discounting the fact that clearly it's going to be easier to produce oil and gas in the United States," Wright told CNBC's "Squawk Box." "More supply is going to come, and that's pushed down prices of oil, gasoline, home heating fuels, everything across the board, that's a win to the American people."
U.S. crude oil futures have fallen nearly 14% since Trump took office on Jan. 20. Trump has made energy a central part of his agenda with a focus on increasing oil and gas production. The administration has promised to increase leases on federal lands and waters and expedite the permitting process.
Trump's tariffs and OPEC policy have been weighing on the oil market in recent weeks as some fear the levies could lead to higher prices and slower economic growth. West Texas Intermediate on March 5 hit an intraday low of $65.22, the lowest since spring 2022, after Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The president subsequently exempted goods that are compliant with the trade pact that governs North America until April 2.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth and ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said at an energy conference in Houston last week that they expect U.S. oil production to plateau in the coming years after hitting new records under the Biden administration. Wirth said Chevron is more focused on capital discipline than growing production.
"Chasing growth for growth's sake has not proven to be particularly successful for our industry," Wirth said at the CERAWeek by S&P Global Conference. "At some point, you've grown enough that you should start to move towards a plateau, and you should generate more free cash flow, rather than just more barrels."
OPEC+ is also planning to start increasing production in April, gradually bringing back 2.2 million barrels per day to a market that is facing oversupply.
Trump, Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum met with oil and gas executives Wednesday at the White House. Wright said the administration's first message was that they intend to work closely with the industry. They no longer have a "scarlet letter on their forehead," Wright said.
U.S. crude oil prices have risen modestly in recent days as Trump has launched airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen and vowed to hold Iran responsible for any future attacks by the militant group. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $67.11 per barrel Thursday morning.
Iran is an OPEC member and any escalation in tensions with the country raises fears of supply disruptions. Trump is aiming to drive Iran's oil exports to zero in an effort to push the Islamic Republic to negotiate a nuclear deal.
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, a former hedge fund manager, said he’s not worried about the recent downturn that’s wiped trillions of dollars from the equities market as the US seeks to reshape its economic policies.
“I’ve been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy, they are normal,” Bessent said Sunday on NBC’s Meet The Press. “I‘m not worried about the markets. Over the long term, if we put good tax policy in place, deregulation and energy security, the markets will do great.”
The selloff that took the S&P 500 Index into a correction last week came amid investor concerns about the economic effects of the Trump administration’s moves around tariffs, immigration and cuts to the federal government. Losses in equity markets have deepened with mounting growth concerns and souring consumer sentiment.
“We are putting the policies in place that will make the affordability crisis go down, inflation moderate and as we set the sails I am confident that the American people will come our way,” said Bessent, ran Key Square Group before joining the administration.
As the scope of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy broadens, consumers across the political spectrum have become increasingly concerned that the extra duties will lead to higher costs. Global tariffs are now in place on steel and aluminum and there’s an April 2 deadline pending for even broader levies.
While inflation cooled last month, any sustained pickup in price pressures risks causing households to limit discretionary purchases.
In the interview, Bessent said the American Dream isn’t contingent on being able to buy cheap goods from China. Families instead want to afford a home and see their children do better than they are.
“It’s mortgages, it’s cars, it’s real wage gains,” he said.
As questions about the US economy build, Federal Reserve officials are due to meet this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized earlier this month that the central bank doesn’t need to be in a hurry to cut rates but he will likely be pressed about the uncertainty and risks emerging.
(Updates first paragraph with stock market losses)
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bessent-says-not-worried-market-152259709.html
The US stock markets have been volatile recently. Angela Weiss/AFP via Getty Images
- The US stock market selloff is prompting investors to seek opportunities in global equities.
- Emerging markets are outperforming as US recession fears drive investors to diversify their portfolios.
- However, a US economic slowdown would still pose risks to global markets.
The recent stock market rout in the US has benefited equities elsewhere as investors rotate investments — but their long-term gains could still hinge on the American economy.
Last week, the US stock markets saw a brutal selloff over fears of a recession. The S&P 500 is down 4% and the Nasdaq Composite is down 8% so far this year.
In contrast, the Euro Stoxx 50 index is 10.4% higher year to date, especially after Germany and Europe announced defense and government spending plans. Meanwhile, a China tech rally sent Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index up 20% while the mainland's CSI 300 index has risen about 2%.
Such recent market moves mark an "unusual outperformance" for European and emerging markets stocks relative to the US, analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote in a Sunday note. But they said there are limits to the decoupling — especially if US economic activity and growth continue to decelerate and an American recession becomes a "real risk."
"In those scenarios — where the US catches a bad cold — tighter financial conditions and higher risk aversion tend to spill over into global markets as well," they wrote.
The analysts wrote that markets in Europe and China have been swiftly boosted by the EU and Germany's huge fiscal packages and AI developments, respectively. But if the US economy and markets weaken further, these other markets may need more supportive factors to continue their positive performance.
Goldman Sachs' report comes after the recent cratering in US stocks sent investors looking for market winners elsewhere.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic and market outlook for the US — the world's largest economy, which accounts for about one-quarter of global GDP — remains uncertain as the second Trump administration appears to have a higher tolerance for market turbulence.
On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told NBC News that there are "no guarantees" there won't be a recession. He also said he was "not at all" worried about the volatile stock markets.
US President Donald Trump has also recently declined to rule out the possibility of a recession.
"The challenge is that because new policy announcements are still coming and because the timing of the impact of uncertainty is not clear, it may take time before the market can gain confidence that the economy is avoiding more lasting damage even if the data holds up," the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/turmoil-us-boosting-global-markets-065527234.html
The rupiah’s slide and concerns over the growing budget deficit under Prabowo’s administration have raised red flags for investors, heightening fears about economic stability.
The Jakarta Composite Index plummeted by up to 5%, recording its sharpest intraday drop since the 2020 pandemic-induced chaos. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
[JAKARTA] Fears of a slowing economy and uncertainty over President Prabowo Subianto’s recent policies rattled investors, sparking a market sell-off that triggered a trading halt on Tuesday (Mar 18) as the benchmark index plunged.
The Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) plummeted by up to 5 per cent, recording its sharpest intraday drop since the 2020 pandemic-induced chaos, leading to a 30-minute trading halt at 11.19 am local time.
Large-cap stocks, including those with sky high price-to-earnings ratios such as Barito Renewables Energy and Data Center Infrastructure Indonesia, took a nosedive, suffering the biggest losses with declines of up to 20 per cent.
Meanwhile, the rupiah slid to 16,472 per US dollar, dropping 0.3 per cent from the previous day, marking the steepest decline in Asia after the South Korean won.
Uncertainty spooks investors
Ari Jahja, head of Indonesia research at Macquarie Capital, said the recent rupiah depreciation, coupled with concerns over the widening budget deficit under Prabowo’s administration, has become a major worry for investors.
Adding to the uncertainty, rumours of a Cabinet reshuffle – potentially replacing Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati – have been circulating widely.
“There’s also the lingering overhang on Danantara’s execution and its impact on state-owned banks,” he added.
The newly established sovereign wealth fund, Danantara, which reports directly to Prabowo, made waves last month by announcing its plans to take the reins of seven state-owned enterprises. Among its most significant assets are three of Indonesia’s largest banks, collectively holding more than US$340 billion in total assets.
The JCI has plunged more than 14 per cent this year, with the recent downgrades by Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs adding fuel to the fire, leaving investors on edge and casting a shadow over Indonesia’s economic prospects and stock valuations.
Nafan Aji Gusta, senior investment analyst at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, highlighted that negative sentiment continues to cloud the Indonesian market, fuelled by growing concerns over the decline of the middle class – historically a key driver of Indonesia’s economic growth.
He cautioned that this trend undermines the country’s macroeconomic outlook, leaving it far from optimistic.
“Investors are eagerly awaiting pro-market policies from the government,” he said.
Soften growth risk
As a Muslim-majority nation, Indonesia looks to Ramadan and Idul Fitri as key moments for consumer spending, largely driven by holiday bonuses given by employers to workers.
In a bid to fuel economic activity during the holiday season, the government is rolling out targeted stimulus for the transportation and retail sectors, sparking hopes for a seasonal boost to the economy.
While the government’s social assistance initiatives may offer some relief to purchasing power, analysts now expect the rebound in consumer spending to be slower than originally anticipated.
Consumer confidence of South-east Asia’s largest economy dipped for a second consecutive month to 126.4 in February, from 127.2 in January. The decline reflects concerns over job losses and income instability, particularly in labour-intensive manufacturing industries.
Brian Lee, economist at Maybank, highlighted persistent economic uncertainty and concerns over job and income security, which are leading households to adopt a more cautious approach to their spending.
“Rising economic uncertainty, coupled with concerns over job security and increased competition from China, is weighing heavily on consumer confidence and dampening spending enthusiasm.”
In the light of these challenges, Maybank has revised Indonesia’s 2025 gross domestic product growth forecast downwards to 5 per cent from the previous 5.2 per cent, with first-quarter growth expected to slow to around 4.8 per cent, compared with 5 per cent in the fourth quarter.
All attention is on Bank Indonesia as it prepares to unveil its interest rate decision on Wednesday.
With the room for further cuts shrinking, analysts expect the central bank to hold steady at the current 5.75 per cent, signalling a cautious approach in the face of economic uncertainty.
18 MAR, 2025 BY TOM PASHBY
The Ministry of Defence (MOD) is raising its “significant national security concerns” about the proposed Aquind interconnector with the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) via a highly guarded process set up by the department.
What is the Aquind interconnector?
The Aquind Interconnector is a proposed privately financed, subsea and underground high voltage direct current (HVDC) cable between Normandy in France and Lovedean substation near Portsmouth in Hampshire.
According to project promoter Aquind Ltd the 2,000MW interconnector will provide up to 5% of the electricity required to power Great Britain.
Aquind Interconnector applied for the development consent order (DCO) in November 2019; it’s still pending nearly six years later.
In April 2024, the MOD raised “significant national security concerns” about the project and requested a six-week extension to the planning process. It has not publicly said what its national security concerns are.
The DCO decision was then delayed by the General Election and now remains pending as ministers work through a private process of addressing the security concerns raised by the MOD.
Secret process explained in letters between parties
In a letter sent on behalf of DESNZ to both Aquind and the MOD on 12 July 2024, shortly after the new government had come into power, secretary of state Ed Miliband sought to assuage the issues between the two parties by laying out future steps in the process of mitigating national security concerns.
The 12 July 2024 letter was published on the Planning Inspectorate’s ‘Find a National Infrastructure Project’ website.
It said: “If any of the confidential representations are considered to raise potentially material planning considerations relevant to the determination of [Aquind’s DCO] application and which may affect the determination, DESNZ will request the Attorney General (“AG”) to appoint a representative for the Applicant.
“The appointed representative will need to have the appropriate security clearance (presumed to be developed vetted) and will be bound by the terms of the appointment to protect the confidentiality of the information (and not disclose the content of any confidential information to the Applicant itself, either directly or indirectly).”
Government guidance says developed vetting clearance is required for people who will have “frequent and uncontrolled access to TOP SECRET assets or require any access to TOP SECRET codeword material”.
DESNZ’s letter made clear that MOD was able to “make representations” about the individual’s security clearance directly to the AG if it thought it necessary.
After this, the Applicant’s appointed representative was to be invited to 55 Whitehall to view the MOD’s representations about its national security concerns related to the Aquind DCO. The representative would be allowed to “prepare written representations about them on the Applicant’s behalf”.
A follow-up letter about the process was sent by an unnamed DESNZ civil servant on 19 September 2024 and released to NCE under Freedom of Information. DESNZ deputy director - energy infrastructure planning David Wagstaff was in carbon copy.
It revealed that the process of choosing a representative for Aquind was ongoing, with DESNZ liaising with the AG to decide on a suitable person to view the MOD’s representations.
The letter said: “As stated in DESNZ’s letter of 8 August, this process has already begun, though an appointment would not be finalised by the AG until DESNZ confirmed its view on the closed material and the need for an appointed representative was established.
“We will update the Applicant and the MOD on the appointment […] so that the MOD may make representations (if required).”
It reiterated the intention to invite the Aquind representative to Whitehall to view the MOD’s representations
Aquind Ltd spokesperson Ben Iorio confirmed to NCE that, since that letter, “the Attorney General’s Office has appointed a representative to act on behalf of Aquind in relation to reviewing and responding to the closed representations made by the Ministry of Defence. This process is actively ongoing.”
A Government spokesperson responding on behalf of both MOD and DESNZ repeated the comment they made in response to previous articles by NCE on Aquind’s DCO application process.
They said: “The re-determination process remains ongoing, and submissions have been provided by the Ministry of Defence as part of that work.”
Local MP concerned about ‘Russian-backed’ cables
Earlier this month, three local members of parliament, including a junior minister, met with a defence minister to raise their concerns about the Aquind interconnector project.
Portsmouth South MP and Department for Education parliamentary under-secretary Stephen Morgan, Fareham and Waterlooville MP and former home secretary Suella Braverman and Portsmouth North MP Amanda Martin met with MOD parliamentary under-secretary Luke Pollard to discuss their concerns.
The concerns were centred around national security.
Reacting to the news of the secret process, Braverman told NCE: “I was pleased to attend a very useful and productive cross-party meeting of MPs with Minister for the Armed Forces Luke Pollard at the MoD.
“I put forward my serious concerns relating to national security. I am very worried about the prospect of Russian-backed underground cables being constructed in the heart of our naval base in Portsmouth.
“It will have a serious impact on the UK’s defence.”
NCE reveals litany of threats and accusations by Aquind against UK Government
NCE recently revealed that Aquind Ltd, via its lawyers Herbert Smith Freehills (HSF) had threatened the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) with legal action over delays to consideration of its development consent order (DCO) application.
The company also accused the Ministry of Defence of “abusing the issue of national security” and made a series of other allegations, also in a letter via its lawyers.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have agreed to shackle Ukraine after hours of talking on the telephone over ceasefire terms, which won’t work but are intended to further divide Ukraine and Europe from the White House.
“The leaders agreed that the movement to peace will begin with an energy and infrastructure ceasefire, as well as technical negotiations on implementation of a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea, full ceasefire and permanent peace,” the White House said in a statement about the call.
The Kremlin added: “It was emphasised that the key condition for preventing the escalation of the conflict and working towards its resolution by political and diplomatic means should be a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv.”
So there has not been a Russian agreement to a ceasefire. But if there is to be one, then all foreign military and intelligence assistance has to stop.
That means the Anglo-French efforts to create a coalition of the willing to back Ukraine and support a long-term peace with military muscle must stop. US assistance must stop, again. All intelligence sharing, by both the US and other Nato members, must also be ended. Ukraine, Russia has demanded, must be hog-tied, muzzled and blinded before substantial talks can begin.
The “terms” set out by the conversation will lead to talks being started almost immediately in the Middle East.
Who will attend them is a tricky question to answer as Ukraine cannot accept the Kremlin’s demands. And Europe has already set about dividing itself from the American security structures after Trump’s infidelity to America’s allies.
In what initially looks like an olive leaf, the Kremlin said that Putin had immediately issued orders to his forces to end attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. Kyiv, Washington and Moscow may believe, should do the same.
This suits the Kremlin tactically. Ukraine has been staggeringly effective in attacking the energy infrastructure of Russia’s military. A pause in those long-range assaults on gas lines, pool refineries and other energy nodes is essential for Russia while it sets about reinforcing its efforts to continue to plough into Ukraine.
Neither the White House nor the Kremlin has mentioned any concessions on the part of Russia.
Worse still, from Ukraine’s point of view, is continued talks – between Russia and the US – on a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.
Ukraine has largely won the battle for the Black Sea. It sunk the Moskva, Russia’s greatest battleship, and has driven its fleet out of the area where it skulks in Russian ports. A ceasefire in the Black Sea will give Russia time to manoeuvre its fleet into an attacking formation, without fear.
Ukraine and Europe will reject the results of these talks but welcome the continued process. It’s nothing but a distraction and will buy time for Europe, the UK, Canada, Australia and much of the civilised world to put together enough support for Ukraine to allow Kyiv to continue to defend democracy in the West – without America.
Türkiye's largest oil refiner, Tüpraş, is reportedly set to receive a cargo of Itapu crude early next month, its first such purchase from Brazil, Reuters reported on Saturday, referring to a source with knowledge of the matter and ship tracking data.
Tüpraş last month said it had stopped buying Russian crude after the United States announced new sanctions on Russia's oil industry on Jan. 10.
The cargo of Itapu crude, around 1 million barrels, was loaded onto the Suezmax tanker Joao Candido on March 12, according to tracking data from Kpler and LSEG.
It is scheduled to arrive at Izmit port in Türkiye, where Tüpraş operates a 225,800-barrel-per-day (bpd) capacity oil refinery, on April 3-4, the data show.
Tüpraş did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment, which arrived late in the Turkish business day on Friday, on the reason for the purchase.
Brazil's Petrobras confirmed to Reuters that it sold the cargo.
Petrobras "continues to develop new markets to ensure the flow of the growing production of Brazilian oil to profitable destinations," the firm said in a statement.
The Kpler shipping data, which date back to 2013, show that neither of Tupras' two refineries, one at Izmit and another at Izmir, has previously received Brazilian crude.
Itapu is a medium-sweet crude oil with an API gravity of 29.3 and a sulphur content of 0.253%.
Russia's Urals is medium-sour, meaning it has a similar density to Itapu at around 31.7 API, but is more sulphurous at 1.7%, according to data provided by S&P Global Commodity Insights.
Tupraş had become one of the biggest importers of Russian crude since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, receiving around 305,000 bpd of the grade in 2024, according to Kpler.
Oil's recent descent has prompted Goldman Sachs analysts to lower their price target for the year, in part due to expectations of softer economic growth amid President Trump's tariff policies.
The firm reduced its December 2025 forecast for Brent crude oil by $5 (BZ=F) to $71 per barrel.
Brent prices have fallen more than 3% year to date. Initiatives by the Trump administration to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and efforts for a potential nuclear agreement with Iran have eased supply worries. Meanwhile, some economists have cut their growth forecasts amid a string of disappointing data and uncertainty over Trump's tariff policies.
“The selloff mostly reflects a shift in market focus from downside risk to Russia and Iran supply to softer US GDP growth,” Goldman Sachs' Daan Struyven wrote.
Struyven and his team expect oil demand will grow less than expected, "incorporating slower US GDP growth on higher tariffs."
Anton Petrus via Getty Images
Last week, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from all countries. The European Union responded with retaliatory levies against the US.
More US tariff plans are expected to be announced in early April.
Goldman Sachs analysts also anticipate higher OPEC+ supply next quarter.
Earlier this month, futures fell after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) surprised Wall Street by announcing it would bump up production in April as a first step toward unwinding its production cuts.
On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL=F) jumped around 1% to trade above $67 per barrel. Brent also gained roughly 1% to trade above $70.
The gain came after the US indicated it would continue to launch an offensive against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels until their shipping attacks in the Red Sea stopped.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
Due to sanctions imposed by the US against Russian energy companies, Turkish refineries are currently buying at least 31% less Russian oil in January this year compared to last year.
Bloomberg writes about this, citing data from the analytical company Vortexa Ltd.
In March, Turkey imported about 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day, and only 19% of that came from Russia. In comparison, last year, more than 50% of its crude oil imports came from Russia.
Turkey is now looking for new suppliers. In particular, oil refiner Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri AS (Tupras) has purchased a shipment of medium-sweet crude from Brazil, which is currently being transported by the tanker Joao Candido. According to the Turkish government, this is the first recorded purchase of crude oil from Brazil since 2007.
From the end of February, Tupras plans to stop receiving Russian oil that does not meet the price limit set by the G7 countries. The company also announced that it has stopped purchasing Russian Urals oil.
Brazilian state oil company Petrobras has sold 950,000 barrels of Itapu low-sulfur (0.25%) crude to Turkey for delivery in early April.
Another refinery in Turkey is owned by Azerbaijan’s state-owned energy company, Socar, which supplied 29 percent of the country’s oil imports last year. It is unclear how much of that oil was Russian, though. Socar did not respond to requests for comment.
https://babel.ua/en/news/116349-turkey-reduces-purchases-of-russian-oil-amid-us-sanctions
Fires are seen at the “Kavkazskaya” oil transfer facility in Russia’s Krasnodar region, March 19, 2025. (Source: Militarny)
A drone attack struck the “Kavkazskaya” oil transfer facility in Russia’s Krasnodar region, causing a large fire that continued burning for hours, Astra reported on March 19.
The attack occurred overnight on March 19, 2025, targeting a pipeline complex that transports oil to Novorossiysk for export. Local residents reported seeing a massive fire erupted at the facility shortly after the drones hit. As of 8:00 a.m. Kyiv time, the fire was still burning.
Authorities in the Krasnodar region confirmed that attack drones targeted the facility. While Russian air defenses shot down some of the incoming drones, their debris fell onto a nearby oil depot, triggering the fire.
According to official reports, the fire covered an area of 20 square meters and damaged a pipeline connecting oil storage tanks. 105 firefighters and 45 emergency vehicles were deployed to contain the blaze.
The US-based FIRMS system, which detects thermal anomalies, recorded a sudden temperature spike at the oil depot at 1:24 a.m., confirming the intensity of the fire.
The “Kavkazskaya” oil transfer hub plays a critical role in Russia’s oil supply chain, transporting crude oil by rail to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) system, which then pumps 6 million tons of oil per year to Novorossiysk for export.
The facility includes a rail-based oil terminal and a 15.7-kilometer pipeline connecting it to the Kropotkinskaya oil pumping station, a key link in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium network.
Oil from this hub is supplied by major Russian energy companies, including Surgutneftegaz, Gazprom Neft, Yuganskneftegaz, TNK, Rosneft, and Lukoil.
Earlier, Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces successfully destroyed a Russian “Utyos-TM” radar system.
“This radar was actively tracking Ukrainian aircraft, missiles, and drones within a 360-kilometer radius in real time,” the statement read.
By Stephanie Kelly
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. crude imports from Canada fell to the lowest in two years as U.S. net crude imports also sank, after President Donald Trump's administration imposed tariffs on imported crude from its northern neighbor.
Despite the fall in imports, U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected last week as domestic crude production stayed near a record high at 13.6 million barrels per day.
Trump already imposed tariffs on imported crude from Canada and Mexico but then issued exemptions for producers who can prove they comply with the trade agreement between the three countries, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.
Crude imports from Canada fell by 541,000 to 3.1 million bpd in the week to March 14, the lowest since March 2023.
Net U.S. crude imports fell by 1.44 million barrels per day to 741,000 bpd, the lowest since October 2023.
Crude inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels to 437 million barrels last week, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 512,000-barrel rise.
Refinery utilization rates rose by 0.4 percentage points in the week. But on the East Coast, utilization fell to 53.8%, the lowest since July 2020.
Phillips 66's 258,500 barrel-per-day refinery in Linden, New Jersey, has been undergoing a major turnaround.
Refinery crude runs fell by 45,000 barrels per day, the EIA said.
Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub fell by 1 million barrels, the EIA said.
Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures edged higher after the data, and both benchmarks last rose about 0.9% by 12:48 p.m. EDT (1648 GMT).
Meanwhile, U.S. gasoline stocks fell by about 530,000 barrels in the week to 240.6 million barrels, the EIA said, compared with analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.2 million-barrel draw.
Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell by 2.8 million barrels in the week to 114.8 million barrels, versus expectations for a 300,000-barrel drop, the EIA data showed.
"The EIA showed a net draw including products, which is incrementally bullish," said Josh Young, chief investment officer at Bison Interests.
Total product supplied - a proxy for demand - fell to 19.4 million bpd, though product supplied of distillates rose to 4 million bpd.
(Reporting by Stephanie Kelly and Arathy Somasekhar; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-crude-stocks-rise-gasoline-143933368.html
Asia’s sour crude demand is set to rebound from late in the second quarter as refiners return from maintenance and Exxon Mobil completes a Singapore refinery upgrade that is poised to increase its heavy oil use, traders and analysts said.
The rise in demand from some of the world’s top oil importers led by China will support Middle East benchmarks Dubai and Oman despite the prospect of more supply from OPEC+ after the group agreed to increase production from April.
“After weaker-than-expected imports from China for the beginning of the year, we expect Chinese crude demand to resume as refinery throughputs rise, along with those of other Asian refiners,” said Harry Tchilligurian, head of research at Onyx Capital Group.
“This will continue to support Dubai.”
Several major Chinese refineries, mostly operated by Asia’s largest refiner Sinopec, have shut for maintenance since end-February, curbing crude demand.
About 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude processing capacity will be offline in April, with the volume dropping to about 1.2 million bpd in May, according to Reuters calculations.
Adding to demand, Exxon Mobil said in a statement on Wednesday it is on track to complete an upgrade at its Singapore refinery and petrochemical complex this year after the pandemic delayed the project.
The multi-billion-dollar Singapore residue upgrade project at its Jurong complex will raise production of low-sulphur diesel by 48,000 bpd and its capacity of base oils, a raw material for lubricants, by 20,000 bpd.
The project is expected to start operations in the third quarter, three sources familiar with the matter said.
While the plant’s crude processing capacity remains unchanged at 592,000 bpd, traders expect the refinery to use more heavy, high-sulphur crude from the Middle East, reducing its intake of U.S. light sweet crude.
More than half of the refinery’s crude imports are currently light sweet oil from the U.S., Kpler data showed.
DUBAI VS BRENT
Middle East benchmark Dubai became more expensive than Brent crude on Wednesday, creating arbitrage opportunities for Atlantic Basin oil to head to Asia.
“The strength in the medium sour crude is thus probably the center of the strength in the global crude oil market at the moment,” SEB’s chief commodities analyst Bjarne Schieldrop said in a research note, adding that the first and third month price spread for Dubai is markedly stronger than comparable spreads for Brent and West Texas Intermediate.
However, Tchilligurian said further weakening of the Brent-Dubai spread may be limited going forward as Brent will draw some support from the exit of scheduled maintenance by European refiners.
(Reporting by Florence Tan and Trixie Yap; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
Berlin: The Indian government does not intend to cut oil imports from Iran due to U.S.-backed sanctions and the recent decline in purchases were due to payments, insurance and logistics problems, Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai said.
"We will continue to buy oil from Iran," Mathai, who is part of a high-level delegation led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Germany, told reporters.
The foreign secretary said import decisions were taken by the oil marketing companies on commercial basis and the government has no role in recent decline in the purchases from Iran.
"There are banking problems. There are insurance problem. It is related to logistics and management of oil," Mathai said.
According to the International Energy Agency, Iran's oil exports have declined sharply in the past two months due to lower imports by its key buyers, including India.
Some analysts feel that the Indian government has cut oil imports from Iran due to increasing pressure from the United States.
The US and the European Union, at the beginning of 2012, imposed new sanctions on Iran, asking to stop its nuclear enrichment programme.
Western countries suspect that Iran is developing nuclear weapons with military intent, while Iran denies this, saying its programme was meant for civilian use.
Earlier addressing a joint press conference with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said Iran nuclear issue was complex and should be resolved in a peaceful manner through negotiations.
"We respect Iran's right to use nuclear energy for peaceful purpose," Manmohan Singh said, adding India would favour peaceful resolution of the issues related to Iran and western countries, especially the US and Europe.
The prime minister said Iran was India's fourth largest supplier of oil and it was crucially important from the country's energy security point of view.
Nearly 12 percent of India's oil imports come from Iran. The majority of the purchases are done by refiners like Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited, Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited and Essar Oil.
BP is seeking to sell a 50pc stake in its solar business as the oil giant attempts to win over activist investor Elliott. writes Jessica Clark.
Pressure is building on chief executive Murray Auchincloss following reports that Elliott, which has built a near 5pc stake, was disappointed with his new strategy.
Analysts warn the New York hedge fund could push to oust chairman Helge Lund - appointed in 2019 - who also leads the board of Ozempic maker Novo Nordisk.
The Norwegian, who oversaw BP's failed pivot to green energy, is up for re-election at the annual general meeting next month.
A fortnight ago, Auchincloss unveiled a plan to spend less on renewable power and invest more in gas and oil.
He is under pressure to boost BP's share price and profits as it underperforms rivals Shell and Exxon Mobil.
The strategy included plans to raise nearly £16bn by 2027 by offloading parts of the business, including a stake in its Lightsource solar arm.
And Saudi Aramco is reportedly weighing up a bid for its lubricants business Castrol - which BP has also put up for sale.
But it was revealed last week that Elliott wants BP to sell its petrol stations to raise a potential £31bn.
Bids for Lightsource are due in June, the company said in a document seen by Reuters.
BP intends to bring in a partner and launch a sales process in the near future but declined to comment further.
Murray Auchincloss, CEO of BP. (Pic: MARK FELIX/AFP via Getty Images)
In a document dated March 2025, it said it was seeking a strategic partner for half of the solar company this year in a cash transaction. Called Project Scala, BP is seeking a strategic partnership with 'established leaders with extensive experience' in the renewables industry.
Governance would reflect joint control of the assets, BP wrote in the document. Initial, non-binding offers are due in June and the company will shortlist bidders in July.
BP said the platform had 5.7 gigawatts of operational assets and was active in 19 markets. It said Lightsource was expanding into battery storage and onshore wind.
RE: Here's Hoping Ecopetrol buys the entire company
Like many, I have been long FEC for too long and would love to soon hear of a cash deal to totally cash out the stock with a a decent return for having to endure the pain and suffering of being long too long with this Mgt team. Hopefully, they all get very rich from their options and golden parachutes.
If we want to extend the game of Best Guess of who is the leading contender for "Let's Make a Deal" The highlighted at very bottom is from Ecopetrol's Annual report and seems to check several boxes that keeps EC at the top of the list. jmo.
The adding a pipeline from the port to Ecopetrol's refinery. The timing of the deal with Gasco to add the LPG terminal at the port to transition into cleaner energy. Seems like clues to me.Wanting to increase resources and reserves. Grow through diversification (buying a port). And growing inorganically through mergers and acquistions. (buying FEC would check all 3 boxes)You could also say, owning a port attached to a refinery; that can accomodate Super Tankers as well as Super Container ships is a great way to expand their business internationally.Currently Ecopetrol produces over 60% of the county's oil and Colombia exports about 50% of the oil produced. Most of it to the US.
From Ecopetrol:
"To this end, the following value levers have been defined:
i. Diversify GE production so that Gas and LPG reach up to 30% share between 2030 and 2035.
ii. Achieve EBITDA growth by strengthening and accelerating the organic portfolio (resources and reserves).
iii. Grow through diversification of the value chain with inorganic opportunities (mergers and acquisitions) and expansion of the business internationally.
iv. Develop commercial schemes to stimulate new demand, which will allow us to reach additional sales levels with consumption in industry, thermal, NGV and integral solutions.
v. Contribute to the decarbonization goals of the GE and the country by eliminating routine burns, leaks and venting in the operation, which impacts GHG emissions scope 1 and 2, and through the sale of a basket of products with lower emissions, reducing scope 3 emissions."
https://stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard?symbol=t.fec&postid=36495127
Nord Stream gas pipeline. Photo: Xinhua
Although Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that resuming Russian gas exports to Europe via Nord Stream is not currently on the agenda, newspapers have pointed to some signs that Moscow may be planning to restore the pipeline.
The first reports on the talks to restore Nord Stream 2 appeared in early March 2025.
According to German newspaper Bild, US President Donald Trump's special delegate, Richard Grenell, has held secret talks in Switzerland on restarting the pipeline. The content is said to be about the possibility of the US mediating to supply Russian gas to Germany. However, Mr Grenell has denied the above negotiations.
The Financial Times also reported on the US interest in restarting the pipeline.
IStories has found some other signs that Russia may be hoping to restart the Nord Stream project.
First sign: Russian company pipeline Coatings and technologies, which was involved in the construction of Nord Stream 2 (specializing in concreting pipes to be installed on the seabed), appears to be preparing for a major order.
A source close to Gazprom's board said the company has begun to buy back patents related to pipeline processing technology for the Nord Stream pipeline.
"pipe concreting technology originates from the West. However, many technical details have been registered for patents in Russia. Previously, these patents belonged to many different experts, but the company is actively buying them back to prepare for a potential order and avoid having to pay royalties if this order comes true," said an IStories source.
Second sign: The Association of Russian Steel Pipe Manufacturers is taking unusual moves. According to the association's website, it supports Gazprom's programs to provide domestically produced steel pipes. Recently, the association discussed tubes for installation at the seabed.
Gazprom. Photo: Xinhua
"Given Gazprom's current situation, no major project requires steel pipes with these technical characteristics," a source close to Gazprom said.
Oil and gas market expert Mikhail Krutikhin also confirmed: "Currently, Gazprom does not have any major projects related to the placement of pipelines under the sea".
Third sign: Tube maintenance and conservation. In January 2025, the operator of the Nord Stream 2 AG pipeline received a license from the Danish Energy Agency to carry out conservation work on the damaged pipeline section.
Officially, this work is to pump seawater out of damaged pipes and install blocking devices. This could help the pipeline restoration go faster if a decision is made. However, the Danish government explained the decision was for environmental reasons.
An IStories source asked: "For more than two years, the Danish government has not taken any measures to destroy the pipelines. But now, Nord Stream 2 AG, which is facing the risk of bankruptcy, why is it looking for and obtaining a license to do this work?".
The International Energy Agency just threw a bucket of ice water on oil bulls, reporting that crude supply is outpacing demand by 600,000 bpd and slashing its demand outlook for the year. And the IEA isn’t alone. The world’s biggest oil traders are also sounding the alarm, turning bearish as overproduction ramps up both inside and outside OPEC.
“The industry is over-drilling now, that is clear,” Gunvor’s chairman Torbjörn Törnqvist told Bloomberg in an interview on the sidelines of CERAWeek. “We are drilling more inside and outside OPEC than demand growth warrants.”
Indeed, production is on the rise. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook that it expected U.S. output this year to gain 400,000 bpd to 13.6 million barrels daily, which would solidify the country’s status as top global producer—and a major reason for the weakness in oil prices.
Yet OPEC+ is also producing more, or rather, some members of the group are producing way over their quota. In the latest update from the cartel, Kazakhstan was the main overproducer, with an average daily rate of 1.767 million barrels in February versus a quota of 1.468 million barrels daily. Nigeria also overproduced, although less dramatically, exceeding its ceiling by some 70,000 barrels daily.
Meanwhile, on the demand side, it appears that many have concerns related to President Donald Trump’s approach to trade policy, namely tariffs. The concerns focus on tariffs hurting demand for crude as they make various goods more expensive. Some tariffs might also have a negative effect on oil and gas industry costs, specifically the steel and aluminum tariffs the Trump administration announced earlier this week. The effect, however, is likely to be modest.
This will not be the case with refining in the United States, where as much as 400,000 bpd in processing capacity is scheduled to be shut down this year. Two refineries—one in Los Angeles and another in Houston are slated for a shutdown in 2025, which would leave more crude available on the market.
According to the chief executive of Vitol, Russell Hardy, the current developments in supply and demand could push oil prices consistently lower, to between $60 and $80 per barrel. Hardy also said that West Texas Intermediate could dip below $60 per barrel at some point, though likely not for long. In fairness, it would not be the first time when overdrilling has led to price dips that have served as a natural correction for excessive production activity and there is no reason the current situation should be an exception to that rule.
Meanwhile, one prominent oil analyst has said that the world has entered the era of peak oil trading. According to Jeff Currie, formerly with Goldman Sachs and currently with Carlyle, the international oil trade peaked in 2017 and has since been on the decline due to the rise in wind and solar electricity that is produced locally.
“The share of global energy consumption that came from fossil fuels that crossed borders peaked in 2017, and has since declined by 5%,” Currie wrote in a note cited by Bloomberg this week. In it, the analyst noted that while oil is a reliable source of energy, its cross-border trade is increasingly vulnerable to developments such as Trump’s tariff push, for example. According to Currie, this vulnerability will serve as motivation for boosting reliance on wind and solar.
JP Morgan’s latest energy report counters this view, with its author, Michael Cembalest, noting that “after $9 trillion globally over the last decade spent on wind, solar, electric vehicles, energy storage, electrified heat and power grids, the renewable transition is still a linear one; the renewable share of final energy consumption is slowly advancing at 0.3%-0.6% per year.”
This suggests that while the market balance for oil looks like it is leaning into oversupply, it may not necessarily be an accurate picture. Demand has surprised on the positive side repeatedly, countering estimates, with the most notable recent example from last year, when the EIA had estimated a slump in fuel demand in late spring, but the actual numbers showed a surge to a record high.
Another recent example that teaches to take all forecasts and estimates with a pinch of salt came from none other than the IEA’s head himself, who called for more oil and gas investment at CERAWeek, saying, “There is a need for oil and gas upstream investments, full stop,” four years after he said in the IEA’s Road Map to Net Zero that the world needed no more investments in new oil and gas supply because the transition was going to succeed.
It seems, then, that at this point in time, oil prices seem set for an extended period of depression as supply appears to exceed demand consistently and producers have yet to feel enough pain to curb their activity. However, a lot of that comes from forecasts and estimates that may turn out to be inaccurate. This, in turn, would lead to a price correction whose size would depend on just how accurate or inaccurate the forecasts and estimates were.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oils-Oversupply-Spiral-Can-Prices-Stay-Above-60.html
Catch up on the top industries and stocks that were impacted, or were predicted to be impacted, by the comments, actions and policies of President Donald Trump with this daily recap compiled by The Fly:
OIL PRICE FORECASTS: Goldman Sachs (GS) cut its oil price forecasts as tariffs reduce the outlook for U.S. growth, Yongchang Chin of Bloomberg reports. “The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases,” they said. Publicly traded companies in the space include BP (BP), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Shell (SHEL) and TotalEnergies (TTE).
STOCK MARKET PULLBACK: In an interview with NBC’s Meet The Press on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the Trump administration is putting in policies to address affordability crisis and for inflation to moderate, and that corrections are healthy and normal. Further, he stated that the White House is bringing down budget deficits in a responsible way. April 2nd will be a big day with rollout of new tariffs and it will be important to see what happens from April 2nd to June 30th, Bessent adds. The Treasury Secretary says they are focused on affordability of mortgages and cars. With lower energy prices, Americans will realize greater affordability, he adds, saying that “if we kept up at prior spending levels, there would have been a financial crisis.”
WAR IN UKRAINE: U.S. President Donald Trump will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday in a possible pivot point in efforts to end the war in Ukraine and an opportunity for Trump to continue reorienting American foreign policy, Associated Press’ Chris Megerian reports. Trump disclosed the upcoming conversation to reporters while flying from Florida to Washington on Air Force One on Sunday evening, while the Kremlin confirmed Putin’s participation on Monday morning.
At the start of March 2025, the price of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in Belgium was still falling, with both butane and propane seeing significant drops. Due to a change in the fundamentals of demand, butane prices have surprisingly shown a notable reduction when compared to propane prices. The demand for the downstream blending fuel has drastically decreased as the weather has changed from winter to summer, which is also reflected in the dynamics of butane prices.
Key Takeaways:
- LPG prices in Belgium have dropped following Saudi Aramco's decision to reduce the official selling price (OSP) of propane and butane.
- Remarkably, the price drop of butane was significantly higher than the price drop of propane as the winter season transitioned into spring.
- The consistent drop in the feedstock crude oil prices lowers the manufacturing costs.
As per ChemAnalyst, the LPG prices in Belgium are further expected to showcase a downward trend in April 2025 on the back of ease in supply pressure. In the recent development, the Pana Canal Authority has explored the feasibility of a 1 million barrels per day LPG pipeline connecting the Caribbean Sea and the Pacific by this summer. As soon as the board approval is secured, the project can proceed to the next phase which could ease the global supply dynamics of LPG.
While talking about the current market dynamics, the LPG prices in Europe have continued to decline where butane prices have significantly declined by 7.9% and butane prices have declined by 2.1% in just the first two weeks of March 2025. The sustained decline in feedstock crude oil prices has consequently lowered manufacturing costs. Early in March 2025, Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices of butane and propane due to the drop in feedstock prices.
Notably, the disparity in price reduction between butane and propane indicated a significant shift in demand dynamics. As the winter season recedes, the demand for heating fuel has diminished, alongside a reduction in downstream blending activities which further lowers the LPG demand.
Meanwhile, the European LPG supply landscape was configured as balance-to-tight due to constrained supply from the USA. Despite increasing temperatures, which resulted in a decrease in demand for butane and propane, the supply gap has arisen amid limited supply opportunities to Europe due to diverted substantial volumes eastward, Asia. However, the consistent decline in feedstock crude oil prices has served to mitigate the impact of the tight supply pressures by lowering manufacturing costs.
Additionally, the recent peace agreement in Gaza has helped to relax global logistics, which has led to a drop in shipping costs. The LPG market, which had been struggling with high transportation costs, has seen some respite as a result of this breakthrough.
Oil prices have fallen fast since the 3 March announcement from OPEC+ that it will go ahead with a planned rise in its collective oil production. The prospect of increased supply from the group has added to the bearish tone created by rising supply from other key producers and from uncertain demand projections from the world’s biggest importer of oil, China. Lower oil and gas prices is precisely what Donald Trump wants to see in his second term as U.S. president, but with budget breakeven oil prices much higher than even current levels, many may wonder why OPEC+ members are supporting such a potentially financially disastrous production rise.
So economically vital is it to most OPEC+ members that oil prices are kept at the higher end of recent historical levels that the organisation has not increased production since 2022. In fact, at that point it had begun a series of collective oil production cuts to support oil prices, totalling around 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), or around 5.7% of global supply. As recently as December, the cartel extended its previous round of 2.2 million bpd in output reductions to the end of this quarter. Industry estimates are that the first phase of the removal of these production cuts will total about 138,000 bpd in April, with much more to come. “Part of this move [OPEC+ oil production increases] results from repeated overproduction from some of its members, most recently from Kazakhstan [following the Tengiz expansion project], Iraq, and Russia, although Moscow has been doing a lot of it as dark inventory [unofficial output] to sidestep sanctions,” a senior source in the European Union’s (E.U.) energy security complex exclusively told OilPrice.com last week. “Another part comes from the group wanting to protect its market share, given the major shift in the supply-demand balance that’s unfolding,” he added. “And the final part of it is the fact that OPEC+ doesn’t think it can win an oil price war against the U.S. with Trump in his second presidency, given how badly it did in the last two [oil price wars],” he concluded.
Indeed, over the course of the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia spend over 34% of its precious US$737 billion foreign exchange reserves and swung from a budget surplus to a then-record high deficit of US$98 billion, as analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order. So bad was Saudi Arabia’s economic and political situation back towards the end of the Second Oil Price War in 2016 (the first being the 1973-1974 Oil Crisis) that the country’s deputy economic minister, Mohamed Al Tuwaijri, stated in an unprecedentedly unequivocal way for a senior Saudi in October 2016 that: “If we [Saudi Arabia] don’t take any reform measures, and if the global economy stays the same, then we’re doomed to bankruptcy in three to four years.” Although the 2014-2016 Oil Price War had been launched by Saudi Arabia with the intention of destroying or significantly disabling the U.S.’s then-nascent shale oil industry, it only succeeded in destroying the finances of OPEC’s members and undermining the reputation of the group – and Saudi Arabia -- in the global oil market. Aside from the damage to its own economy, Saudi Arabia had cost the OPEC member states collectively at least US$450 billion in revenues during the 2014-2016 Oil Price War, according to International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates.
So badly had OPEC and its effective leader Saudi Arabia been hit by their own actions that Donald Trump was able to exploit this weakness to maintain a tight oil price range during his first term as president through the occasional incentive but many more threats. The lower part of the ‘Trum Oil Price Range’ is US$40-45 per barrel of the Brent benchmark, which is the price at which the bulk of U.S. shale oil producers can breakeven and make a good profit on top. The upper part of it is US$75-80 per barrel, which ties into historical data showing that a gasoline price of under US$2 per gallon has been most advantageous for U.S. economic growth. This US$2 per gallon level has historically equated to a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price of around US$70 per barrel. And as WTI has also historically traded at a discount of between US$5-10 per barrel to the Brent oil benchmark, this US$70 per barrel of WTI price equates to around US$75-80 per barrel of Brent. Judging from Trump’s comments on the campaign trail and in his ‘Agenda47’ blueprint for a second term, his view that oil prices should continue to be heavily influenced by the U.S. in such a way has not changed. He will also be aware of the dramatic political consequences for U.S. presidents of oil prices rising beyond the top of the Range, as also fully detailed in my latest book on the new global oil market order. Specifically, since 1896 the sitting U.S. president has won re-election 11 times out of 11 if the economy was not in recession within two years of an upcoming election. However, sitting U.S. presidents who went into a re-election campaign with the economy in recession won only one time out of seven.
Adding to their troubles in this regard, the Saudis know that Trump has much greater power in this term than he did in his first, with Republican majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and his nominees dominating the Supreme Court. They also know his attitude to OPEC and the Russia-enhanced OPEC+ groups, which was marked early in his first term. More specifically, when Saudi Arabia was still trying desperately to repair the appalling damage its 2014-2016 Oil Price War had done to its own finances and to those of its OPEC brothers, it embarked on coordinated production cuts (with Russia as the new-found member of the expanded ‘OPEC+’ cartel) to push the oil price higher. Trump’s reaction was quick and unequivocal: “OPEC and OPEC nations are, as usual, ripping off the rest of the world, and I don’t like it. Nobody should like it,” he said. He added: “We defend many of these nations for nothing, and then they take advantage of us by giving us high oil prices. Not good. We want them to stop raising prices. We want them to start lowering prices and they must contribute substantially to military protection from now on.” Following Trump’s clear warnings to Saudi Arabia’s Royal Family in the third quarter of 2018 of the catastrophic consequences if the Kingdom continued to keep oil prices higher than the US$80 per barrel Brent price ceiling – analysed in full in my latest book on the new global oil market order -- Saudi Arabia was instrumental in keeping oil prices lower by orchestrating coordinated OPEC production increases. That brief period was the only part of Trump’s presidency that saw his Oil Price Trading Range breached to the upside.
This no-nonsense approach from Trump was a function of a broader shift in U.S. policy towards Saudi Arabia following its 2014-2016 Oil Price War that continues to this day and of which the Saudis are fully aware. Before that War, the foundation relationship agreement between Saudi Arabia and the U.S. was the deal that had been struck on 14 February 1945 between the then-U.S. President, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and the then-Saudi King, Abdulaziz bin Abdul Rahman Al Saud. This deal was simply that the U.S. would receive all the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi Arabia had oil in place and, in return for this, that the U.S. would guarantee the security both of Saudi Arabia and its ruling House of Saud. The implication of this – and clearly delineated at the time of the 1945 agreement by the U.S. side – was that the oil Saudi Arabia supplied to the U.S. would be at a reasonable price based on previous historical levels. However, after the end of the Oil Price War in 2016, a hugely significant change occurred in the U.S.-Saudi Arabia agreement. It effectively changed to one in which the U.S. would receive all the oil supplies it needed for as long as Saudi Arabia has oil in place and in return would guarantee the security of Saudi Arabia and the ruling House of Saud, but it included the proviso that Saudi Arabia did not jeopardise the economic well-being of the U.S. Or to put it more simply as one senior White House official commented off-the-record to OilPrice.com at the end of 2016: “We’re not going to put up with any more crap from the Saudis.”
The Trans-Niger Pipeline, one of Nigeria’s biggest pipelines carrying crude from the Niger Delta to the Bonny terminal, was rocked by a powerful explosion on Monday night, just as OPEC’s top African producer had started to raise oil production and exports.
The explosion at Bodo, Gokana Local Government Area of Rivers State, caused a massive fire at the section of the pipeline in the area, Nigerian media report.
As of early Tuesday local time, the authorities haven’t announced what caused the explosion—vandalism, theft, or some incident.
While the cause of the explosion has yet to be investigated and announced, there is already speculation that the blast could be the result of sabotage, in view of the threats that militant groups in the area have recently made, Nigerian outlet Vanguard reports. The militants have threatened to attack oil infrastructure in the Rivers state amid an ongoing political crisis between the state and the federal government over federal money allocation to Rivers.
The pipeline is operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company of Nigeria Limited (SPDC) and transports crude oil from the oilfields in the Rivers and Bayelsa states to the Bonny export terminal which loads the Bonny Light grade, one of Nigeria’s premium crudes.
The new setback in Nigeria’s oil industry comes just as the country has increased its crude oil production in recent months. In February, Nigeria is estimated to have exceeded its OPEC+ quota thanks to higher exports and increased demand from the newest African refinery, Dangote.
Nigeria began to raise its oil production last year, after years during which it consistently failed to pump to its OPEC+ quota due to oil theft and vandalism and struggles to launch new projects.
Oil theft and pipeline vandalism have long plagued Nigeria’s upstream oil and gas industry, driving majors out of the biggest OPEC producer in Africa and often resulting in force majeure at the key crude oil export terminals.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
Chevron Buys $2.3 Billion Hess Stake on Merger Confidence
Chevron Bets on Hess Amid Arbitration for Guyana Oil Project
Kevin Crowley, Bloomberg News
HOUSTON
EnergiesNet.com 03 18 2025
Chevron Corp. bought nearly 5% of Hess Corp. in an unusual move designed to show confidence that it will win the arbitration battle with Exxon Mobil Corp. that has delayed its planned takeover of Hess for more than a year.
Chevron bought the Hess shares at a discount to the price implied by its $53 billion all-stock takeover agreed in 2023, the Houston-based company said in a statement. The purchases were made between January and March this year, and the stake is worth about $2.3 billion at today’s share prices.
The purchases “reflect Chevron’s continuing confidence in the consummation of the pending acquisition of Hess,” the company said.
The long-running battle between Chevron and archrival Exxon over Hess has captivated both the oil industry and merger-arbitrage traders looking to capitalize on the uncertain outcome of arbitration proceedings involving the two US supermajors. If Chevron wins, it gains a 30% share of the world’s fastest-growing major oil project in Guyana, which is operated and 45%-owned by Exxon. But if it loses, the company stands to face questions over its legal judgment as well as its growth plans after 2030.
About six months after the deal was agreed, Exxon began arbitration proceedings against Hess and Chevron, arguing it has a right of first refusal over the 30% Guyana stake. Chevron claims the right does not apply in the case of a corporate merger. The case is scheduled to be heard in May with a decision by September.
Given the Chevron’s current share price, the stock-offer to Hess is worth more than $160, while the Hess shares are trading for about $150 a share, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Factoring in the gap, as well as potential dividend payouts, purchasing shares now gives Chevron an opportunity to lower the cost of the transaction assuming it wins at arbitration and the spread diminishes.
Chevron’s purchases of Hess stock this year came in addition to regular buybacks of its own stock, the company said. Chevron bought back $15.2 billion of stock last year, about 5% of its market value, and plans to continue repurchasing shares after the Hess deal closes.
https://energiesnet.com/chevron-takes-bold-stake-in-hess-amid-exxon-showdown/
Sarasin & Partners, a major London-based investment firm, has pulled its money from Equinor, accusing the Norwegian energy giant of backtracking on climate commitments.
The investor, which had held Equinor shares since 2021, publicly announced its planned exit in January 2025, citing frustration with the company’s failure to align its strategy with a 1.5°C climate pathway.
Sarasin had initially backed Equinor, believing the state-backed company could lead the transition away from fossil fuels. However, in a letter to Equinor’s board, it made clear the company’s recent actions had destroyed that confidence.
“Despite statements supporting a 1.5°C pathway, in our view, Equinor has not revised its strategy to deliver on these,” Sarasin stated, adding that its long-term capital was now at risk.
The tipping point came at Equinor’s May 2024 AGM when the company’s board opposed a Sarasin-backed shareholder resolution calling for investment decisions to align with climate targets.
Instead of stepping up, Equinor has since followed other oil and gas majors in rolling back its energy transition plans.
Sarasin also took aim at Equinor’s claim of being aligned with the Paris Agreement, calling it misleading. It argued that Equinor’s position was conditional—only aligned if the rest of the world accelerates the transition—rather than actively supporting the shift away from fossil fuels itself.
The firm warned that these kinds of claims fuel complacency in the energy sector, allowing companies to maintain business as usual while pretending to be part of the climate solution. As extreme weather events escalate and the risks of inaction grow, Sarasin said it could no longer justify holding Equinor shares.
While Sarasin acknowledged that its discussions with Equinor had been professional, it ultimately accused the board—backed by the Norwegian government—of prioritising short-term profits over sustainable capital creation.
For Equinor, the loss of an investor that had championed its transition ambitions is surely worrying.
By Tsvetana Paraskova - Mar 19, 2025, 5:43 AM CDT
The tariff wars and high spare capacity, mostly from the OPEC+ producers, are skewing the oil price risk to the downside in the medium term, according to Goldman Sachs.
“While we reduced our Brent forecast range by $5/bbl to $65-80, we expect oil prices to edge up in coming months, and think that market pricing of volatility and of the upside risk from potentially lower sanctioned supply remains too low,” Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a Tuesday note carried by Reuters.
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin agreeing to a 30-day halt of attacks on energy infrastructure reduces the probability of near-term tightening of the sanctions against Russia, according to Goldman Sachs.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for Brent Crude prices, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and additional OPEC+ supply.
“While the $10 a barrel selloff since mid-January is larger than the change in our base case fundamentals, we reduce by $5 our December 2025 forecast for Brent to $71,” the investment bank’s research team said in a note, adding that “The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases.”
OPEC+ is set to start adding supply to the market in April, initially at a rate of 138,000 barrels per day (bpd). However, officials within the group have repeatedly said that the production increase could be halted or reversed at any time, depending on market conditions.
HSBC analysts also see risks in oil skewed to the downside amid expectations of a surplus this year and next. Stronger supply growth compared to more sluggish demand growth would leave the oil market in a 200,000-bpd surplus this year, the bank said in a note. In the previous market view, HSBC expected a relatively balanced oil market in 2025.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
The corporation had already ditched its goal to reduce oil and gas output by 2030.
Oil giant BP has announced that it is scrapping its target to boost renewable energy sources and will focus on dirty fuels instead.
What's happening?
BP previously aimed to generate 20 times more renewable energy by 2030, but CEO Murray Auchincloss abandoned this goal, according to Reuters in late February. BP released a "reset strategy" on Feb. 26 that included oil and gas investment and lower investment in energy "transition" business.
Due to investor concerns, the corporation had already ditched its goal to reduce oil and gas output by 2030, per Reuters. To lower debt and increase returns, BP will also reportedly cut other low-carbon investments.
Why is it important for corporations to reduce their carbon emissions?
Critics have frequently accused oil and gas companies of greenwashing, but it seems as though the new tactic is to abandon all pretense that these corporations are trying to be more sustainable. BP isn't the only dirty energy company walking back on its promises. For instance, Shell had a profit of about $14 billion for the first half of 2024 after weakening its climate pledges.
Ultimately, when companies prioritize profits — whether it's relying on toxic "forever chemicals," allowing deforestation, or trying to circumvent air pollution regulations — people suffer. As for oil and gas companies, pollution from dirty fuels is linked to millions of annual premature deaths.
And because of their size, major corporations can play a disproportionate role in negatively impacting global health. Moreover, while BP didn't provide names of concerned investors to Reuters, the average billionaire emits 1 million times more carbon pollution than a person from the poorest 90% of the world population, according to one assessment. Beyond this, another study estimated that the wealthiest 10% of Americans are responsible for 40% of the country's heat-trapping air pollution.
What's being done to hold oil giants accountable?
The key to holding mega-polluters accountable is to target their primary concern — their profits.
Previously, gas and oil giant Suncor Energy agreed to pay a $10.5 million settlement to Colorado's Department of Public Health & Environment. A separate lawsuit in Chicago has named BP, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66, and Shell. Even the Supreme Court has blocked oil companies' tactics to delay lawsuits.
https://www.thecooldown.com/green-business/bp-oil-giant-fossil-fuel-renewable-energy-target/
The decision to end financial immunity for Russia's energy sector marks a major escalation in US pressure on Moscow.
Gazprom oil refinery outside Moscow, Russia
According to the Kyiv Independent newspaper, the administration of US President Donald Trump has taken an important step in its strategy to put pressure on Russia by ending the exemption under which Russian banks are allowed to use the US payment system to trade energy.
The move marks a significant change in how Washington imposes economic costs on Moscow over the conflict in Ukraine and could have far-reaching consequences for the Russian economy.
Close important financial channels
Under a license issued by the Biden administration in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine, some Russian banks, notably Gazprombank, continue to accept energy payments in US dollars.
The original aim was to prevent a spike in energy prices and avoid an energy crisis in countries dependent on Russian energy while maintaining sanctions pressure on the Russian financial system. However, the license’s expiration date was shortened to March 12.
Commenting on the sanctions, Professor, Doctor of Economic Sciences Ihor Burakovsky, head of the Board of Directors of the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting based in Ukraine, said: "Oil and gas are a key sector of the Russian economy - the country's main source of export revenue. Any restrictions that complicate countries' access to the international financial system cause serious problems for their economies."
Impact on Russia's oil income
Experts point out that the new payment restrictions are significantly weakening the Russian economy by making it more difficult to export energy. “This makes it harder for Russia to get paid for its energy,” said James Angel, an associate professor at Georgetown Business School. “It makes it harder for them to keep fighting in Ukraine.”
Previously, foreign buyers paid in euros or dollars into special accounts at Gazprombank, which were then converted to rubles to comply with the requirement to “pay in rubles” for Russian gas. This process has now been severely hampered. “The banking sector and access to international finance are now the Achilles heel of the Russian economy,” Professor Burakovsky stressed.
Russia's countermeasures
Despite the severe impact, Russia still has some options to deal with the new sanctions. Professor Burakovsky noted that Russia can find ways to circumvent sanctions and has developed many methods to overcome previous barriers. One example is that Russia has a fleet of about 800 ships to transport oil despite Western restrictions.
Russia is also being forced to look for alternative payment channels. According to Dr. Burakovsky, Russia can use informal payment channels or make payments in national currencies, especially with major partners such as India and China. "Since the Indian rupee is not a freely convertible currency, it is difficult to take it out of India. This creates a situation where Russia supplies oil to certain countries but the money stays there," Mr. Burakovsky explained.
Additionally, Russia has also started using cryptocurrencies in oil transactions with China and India to circumvent sanctions.
The new decision comes amid a complicated US-Russia relationship and efforts to negotiate peace in Ukraine. Although President Trump is seeking to negotiate a quick end to the fighting, the new sanctions show that the US administration is still willing to use economic measures to pressure Moscow to agree to Washington's terms.
This may explain Russia's demand for sanctions on oil exports to be lifted as part of any ceasefire in Ukraine.
Exxon is planning to boost its oil production regardless of where international oil prices are heading. This comes from a senior company executive who spoke to Semafor this week. It also likely reflects the sentiment across the supermajor segment of the energy industry. After all, that’s what the consolidation drive was all about.
Exxon announced its plan to take over one of the biggest operators in the shale patch, Pioneer Natural Resources, in late 2023. The value of the deal was calculated at $59.5 billion. At the time, Exxon said the deal would result in combined resources of an impressive 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent in the Permian—and that it had every intention to exploit these resources. From 1.3 million barrels of oil equivalent daily in 2023, the supermajor saw its Permian output in 2030 reaching 2 million barrels daily. Prices were not mentioned as a factor in production decisions at all. Now, per that executive who spoke to Semafor, the 2030 production target has been raised to 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent daily.
“We believe our operating costs are the lowest in the industry, which means we get more out of each barrel we produce,” Bart Cahir, senior vice president for upstream in the unconventional segment, told the publication. “That gives us tremendous resilience when you get into softer parts of the commodity cycle.”
Exxon is not alone in this resilience bubble. ConocoPhillips is also there with its $22.5-billion acquisition of Marathon Oil last year. Chevron is also there with its pending takeover of Exxon’s partner in Guyana Hess Corp—unless Exxon wins the arbitration dispute on its right of first refusal for Hess’s Guyana assets—and a slew of smaller though not less significant deals that reshaped the face of the oil industry.
Resilience has always been one of the goals of a consolidation push. Up until this year, the main driver of this desire to boost resilience was climate policy. Now, it’s Trump and his plans to pursue U.S. energy dominance, which inevitably means higher production, which in turn, inevitably means lower prices.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently said that the shale industry in the country could keep pumping more oil even if the price of crude fell to $50 per barrel. “New supply is going to drive prices down. Companies are going to innovate, drive their prices down and consumers and suppliers will bounce back and forth,” Wright told the Financial Times.
Not everyone agrees, however, and that includes another senior Exxon executive. In November, the president of upstream at the supermajor, Liam Mallon, said at an industry event that “We're not going to see anybody in 'drill, baby, drill' mode.”
“A radical change (in production) is unlikely because the vast majority, if not everybody, is focused on the economics of what they're doing,” Mallon said, speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, and added that the fiscal discipline demonstrated by industry players in recent years was the new normal.
Also, “Operators had most likely planned for prices to be over $70 this year, so at $50, rigs would likely drop and activity slow. And when the rigs drop in the Permian you lose the associated gas that the LNG industry is counting on at the end of the year,” Enverus managing director Andrew Gillick told the FT earlier this month.
The suggestion that the industry’s resilience has limits has been supported by both the former boss of Pioneer Natural Resources and energy industry authority Daniel Yergin. Scott Sheffield said recently in an interview with Bloomberg that the U.S. shale industry would have to “hunker down” if prices dip even lower and wait out that dip. “You may have to lay off some people. You’ve got to focus on your best prospects. We’ll see what happens over the next two or three years,” Sheffield said, predicting prices of between $50 and $60 per barrel.
Daniel Yergin, for his part, says simply that “at $50 a barrel, the economics of shale don’t work”, even though the breakeven price for the shale patch has fallen considerably, from $70 per barrel back in 2010 to just $45 per barrel this year, according to S&P Commodity Insights. Yet it bears noting that the breakeven price is not flat across the shale patch—and that some in the industry argue the lowest-price resources are close to depletion.
Indeed, this depletion was quite probably one of the reasons for the merger and acquisition surge in the last couple of years, along with the record profits made amid the energy crunch in Europe. With top acreage running out, the only way to boost exposure to such top acreage was to buy it from another sector player or take over the sector player itself. This is exactly what Exxon and Chevron, and Conoco, and a dozen smaller companies have done, to improve their resilience to lower oil prices.
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Big-Oil-Shrugs-at-50-Crude.html
(Bloomberg) -- Abu Dhabi’s Lunate has launched a new venture focused on the Asia-Pacific region, part of the $105 billion asset manager’s efforts to boost its exposure to faster-growing markets.
The new investment fund, Axight, will largely focus on private equity deals in APAC, according to people familiar with the matter who declined to be identified because the information is confidential.
Axight will look to raise third-party capital over time, they said, without disclosing the initial size of the venture.
Representatives for Lunate declined to comment.
Get the Mideast Money newsletter, a weekly look at the intersection of wealth and power in the region.
Lunate is a subsidiary of Chimera Investment LLC, and sovereign wealth fund ADQ is an anchor client. Both Chimera and ADQ are part of Abu Dhabi royal Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan’s business empire.
The private markets-focused investment manager previously established Alterra, a climate investment fund, with an initial commitment of $30 billion from the United Arab Emirates.
It took over the management of artificial intelligence firm G42’s China-focused fund, with stakes in units of technology companies including ByteDance Ltd. and JD.com Inc., Bloomberg News reported in July.
Lunate has sealed several other deals since its inception in 2023, including an investment in the glitzy Dubai office tower ICD Brookfield Place. It’s also agreed to buy a 40% stake in Abu Dhabi National Oil Co.’s oil pipeline network, and acquire a minority stake in Adnoc’s gas pipeline business.
Abu Dhabi has launched multiple investment vehicles in the last couple of years including AI and advanced technology investor MGX, and XRG for international natural gas, chemicals and low-carbon energy assets.
©2025 Bloomberg L.P.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/abu-dhabi-105-billion-lunate-113959291.html
(oilnow.gy) The global oil industry is changing, with Guyana’s production rising quickly while Mexico’s output declines. This is according to Adrian Duhalt, a fellow at the Texas-Mexico Center at the Southern Methodist University, who pointed out their contrasting paths.
“Guyana’s oil production is on a promising trajectory. With substantial increases expected in the coming years, the country is poised for a significant boost in export revenue, which will not only fuel the local economy but also set up Guyana as a key player in the LATAM oil market,” Duhalt explained via LinkedIn on March 12.
Guyana’s Stabroek Block currently has three operating FPSOs: Liza Destiny, Liza Unity, and Prosperity. By 2027, three more FPSOs—ONE GUYANA, Errea Wittu, and Jaguar—will be added, pushing total production to 1.3 million barrels per day.
The Stabroek Block co-venturers also plan two more developments, Hammerhead and Longtail, bringing the total projects to eight. Hammerhead is expected to start production around 2029 and operate for 20 years, potentially increasing Guyana’s offshore capacity to 1.5 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, Mexico’s national oil company, Pemex, is struggling. “Despite its rich history as one of the world’s largest oil producers, the company is grappling with serious operational and financial challenges. Crude output continues to decline, and natural gas production is also under pressure. Mexico’s refineries are struggling to reach best performance, and Pemex’s mounting financial debt further complicates the situation.”
Duhalt sees an opportunity for Guyana to capture more of the global market. “Considering these contrasting trends, Guyana’s rapid oil growth is a valuable opportunity for the country to not only capture a greater global market share but potentially catch up with Mexico in terms of oil production and export revenues.”
“With strategic investments and a focus on boosting production, Guyana may soon join other oil giants of the region,” he observed.
Analysts at S&P Global Commodity Insights outlined a similar view. As the focus shifts away from Mexico, experts believe this could be a pivotal moment for Guyana to attract more investment in its expanding oil and gas sector.
ExxonMobil is the operator of the Stabroek Block, where all producing projects are located. The U.S. major has a 45% stake, alongside Hess (30%) and CNOOC (25%).
Russia's under-pressure economy and Vladimir Putin have been dealt a devastating blow after state-controlled gas giant Gazprom recorded a huge net loss of $12.89B (£9.9bn) in 2024. The company's financial woes were compounded by plummeting share prices in its subsidiary Gazpro Neft and an increased income tax rate of 25%.
This greatly raised tax liabilities for the company, leading to billions of pounds lost and follows a historic 2023 where Gazprom revealed a net loss for the first time in 25 years, recording a historic deficit of 629 billion rubles ($7.6 billion). The huge financial blow has had a knock on effect to its employees with Russian sources sharing that the gas giant's CEO, Alexei Miller, has now approved plans to cut 1,500 jobs.
This is across the parent company's headquarters in Russia and Europe's tallest skyscraper, the British-designed Lakhta Centre, also in St Petersburg. After announcing its first annual loss, Gazprom said last year that it was selling a portfolio of high-end properties, including well-known luxury hotels in Moscow. The former Chief of the National Bank of Ukraine, Kyrylo Shevchenko, has branded the business as "Russia’s most unprofitable company". Writing on X, he said: "Russian #Gazprom closes 2024 with a staggering $12.89B net loss - twice its 2023 record of $6.1B, cementing its place as Russia’s most unprofitable company. The downturn stems from plummeting shares of Gazprom Neft, its oil subsidiary."
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/2030179/russian-economy-meltdown-gazprom-losses-jobs
Rising supply and potentially weaker-than-expected demand are set to keep oil prices in check this year, with the price likely to average in the low $70s, analysts and investment banks say.
With the U.S. new administration, experts expect the average price to be lower compared to last year amid concerns about demand as economic uncertainty spiked with the start of the trade and tariff wars.
On the supply side, OPEC+ early this month confirmed it would begin adding barrels to the market as early as next month. Of course, OPEC+ left the door open to any changes to its supply in any direction, saying in the press release that it remains “adaptable to evolving conditions,” and “Accordingly, this gradual increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.”
Wall Street Banks See Oil in the Low $70s
President Donald Trump’s trade policies threw market analysts a curveball, increasing the uncertainty about this year’s demand prospects if economies slow as a result of the tariffs.
Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs cut its year-end forecast for Brent Crude prices, citing expectations of slower U.S. economic growth and additional OPEC+ supply.
“While the $10 a barrel selloff since mid-January is larger than the change in our base case fundamentals, we reduce by $5 our December 2025 forecast for Brent to $71,” the investment bank’s research team said in a note, adding that “The medium-term risks to our forecast remain to the downside given potential further tariff escalation and potentially longer OPEC+ production increases.”
The tariff wars and high spare capacity at OPEC+ producers are skewing the oil price risk to the downside in the medium term, Goldman Sachs has also said.
HSBC analysts also see risks in oil skewed to the downside amid expectations of a surplus this year and next. Stronger supply growth compared to more sluggish demand growth would leave the oil market in a 200,000-bpd surplus this year, the bank said in a note. In the previous market view, HSBC expected a relatively balanced oil market in 2025.
Analysts at Barclays see Brent Crude prices at $74 per barrel this year, down by $9 from the previous forecast, as they slashed their global demand growth estimate in mounting economic uncertainties.
“We turn neutral on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 demand outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to soft high-frequency indicators and elevated economic uncertainty,” Barclays analysts wrote in a note last week carried by Reuters.
The UK-based bank now sees this year’s demand growth at 900,000 bpd.
Barclays expects U.S. crude oil production to increase by the end of this year by just 200,000 bpd compared to the end of the fourth quarter of 2024.
Wood Mackenzie also expects oil prices to be lower this year compared to 2024.
Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $73 per barrel in 2025, down by $7 per barrel from 2024, due to expectations that supply would likely outstrip demand, Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook showed. The $73 per barrel forecast for this year was revised down by $0.40 from the early February monthly report.
“We’re seeing a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While global demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day in 2025, non-OPEC production is forecasted to rise by 1.4 million barrels per day, potentially outpacing demand growth,” said Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie.
Key Oil Market Drivers
OPEC+ supply and the U.S. trade policies (and their effect on economies) will be the two key driving factors for oil prices this year, WoodMac says, although there are also many geopolitical issues at play, including talks on a ceasefire in Ukraine and President Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran.
WoodMac expects global economic growth at 2.8% for 2025, but this could be adjusted downward by around 0.5 percentage points depending on potential trade war scenarios.
Weaker economic growth could reduce oil demand growth by about 400,000 bpd from WoodMac’s current forecast of a 1.1 million bpd increase for 2025.
In case oil demand weakens, the annual average for Brent crude could be $3 to $5 per barrel lower than the $73 per barrel forecast, the energy consultancy says.
All these projections will depend on OPEC+ actions in terms of supply, U.S. trade and tariff policies, and global economic conditions, WoodMac noted.
For now, OPEC continues to see robust oil demand growth for both 2025 and 2026. The cartel left its demand outlook unchanged in its Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) last week. OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.4 million bpd in each of 2025 and 2026.
The International Energy Agency’s monthly report, however, was bearish, as it has been typical of the IEA on oil demand for several years. The Paris-based agency expects growth to be just over 1 million bpd this year, with total global oil reaching 103.9 million bpd.
While this would be an acceleration from the estimated 830,000 bpd growth in 2024, the IEA predicts in its current balances that global oil supply may exceed demand by around 600,000 bpd this year.
By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/70-Oil-Analysts-Cut-Forecasts-as-Supply-Surges.html
Global oil giants are still betting big on renewables despite recent slowdowns and political shifts.
Despite the ‘Trump effect’ and certain announcements, overall companies like BP, Shell and TotalEnergies continuing to expand their clean energy portfolios.
A new report from GlobalData highlights that while global energy production has surged by 30% in the last decade, renewable power has nearly doubled.
With renewables expected to make up over 40% of the energy mix by 2030, oil majors are positioning themselves to stay relevant in a rapidly evolving market.
TotalEnergies is set to become the world’s fourth-largest wind power producer if its pipeline of projects moves forward.
BP and Shell are also ramping up their renewable capacity, particularly in offshore wind, marking a significant shift for an industry that has traditionally relied on fossil fuels.
There have been recent setbacks. BP pulled its permit for the Beacon Wind project off New York, while Equinor scaled back its renewable targets, citing rising costs.
These moves have been linked to the changing political landscape, with Donald Trump’s election victory raising expectations of a friendlier approach to fossil fuels in the US.
But despite these pauses, European oil majors are still far ahead of US rivals ExxonMobil and Chevron, which remain largely absent from the renewable sector.
Both companies have shown little interest in shifting their business models, even as global demand for electricity rises due to electrification, data centers and EV growth.
Ravindra Puranik, Oil and Gas Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “The oil and gas industry, including producers, service providers and contractors—are relatively new entrants in renewable energy. Despite this, they are making notable movements in the competitive landscape for renewable energy, particularly in offshore wind.
“TotalEnergies is anticipated to be the fourth largest producer of wind energy globally towards the end of this decade, if all its proposed projects go online. Even BP, Shell, and several other European players are building considerable renewable power capacity.
“It’s ExxonMobil and Chevron, that are clear laggards in the renewable energy segment. These two companies have negligible capacity footprint in this theme and have no plans to alter this scenario in the near future.”
As clean energy continues to gain ground, oil majors that invest now are likely to be better positioned for long-term success.
https://www.energylivenews.com/2025/03/18/oil-majors-are-still-going-green-honest/
New Delhi, Mar 16 (PTI) After a gap of about ten years, India and New Zealand on Sunday announced resumption of negotiations for a proposed free trade agreement to boost economic ties.
India and New Zealand began negotiating the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) in April 2010 to boost trade in goods, services, and investment. However, after nine rounds of discussions, the talks stalled in 2015.
"The two nations are pleased to announce the launch of negotiations for a comprehensive and mutually beneficial India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations," the commerce ministry said.
The announcement was made after the meeting of Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and Todd McClay, New Zealand's Minister for Trade and Investment.
Prime Minister of New Zealand Christopher Luxon is here on a four-day visit from March 16.
"The India-New Zealand FTA negotiations aim to achieve balanced outcomes that enhance supply chain integration and improve market access," it said.
"With bilateral trade continuing to grow steadily, surpassing USD 1 billion during April-January 2025, the FTA negotiations aim to unlock new avenues for businesses and consumers, fostering mutual growth and prosperity of our nations," Goyal said in a post on X.
According to think tank Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India's proposed FTA with New Zealand would have limited benefit to domestic companies as they are already enjoying duty-free access to a significant number of goods in that market.
New Zealand's average import tariff is just 2.3 per cent, compared to India's 17.8 per cent, it has said.
The bilateral trade between the two countries stood at USD 873.4 million (exports USD 538.33 million and imports USD 335 million) in 2023-24 as against USD 1.02 billion in 2022-23.
The GTRI report has said that 58.3 per cent of New Zealand's tariff lines (or product categories) are duty-free, meaning Indian products already enjoy significant access without a trade pact in the New Zealand market.
The Indian diaspora in New Zealand, with over 250,000 people of Indian origin, provides a strong cultural link that can be used to strengthen trade relations.
India's key goods exports to New Zealand include clothing, fabrics, and home textiles; medicines and medical supplies; refined petrol; agricultural equipment and machinery such as tractors and irrigation tools; auto; iron and steel; paper products; electronics; shrimps; diamonds; and basmati rice.
The main imports are agricultural goods, minerals, apples, kiwifruit, meat products such as lamb, mutton, milk albumin, lactose syrup, coking coal, logs and sawn timber, wool, and scrap metals.
According to trade experts, the tricky point in the talks would duty concessions in agri products like apple, kiwi, dairy, and wine.
India has not yet given any significant concession in dairy to any of its other FTA partners, including Singapore, Japan, South Korea, and the Asean. PTI RR TRB
Source: PTI
https://www.taxmanagementindia.com/visitor/detail_rss_feed.asp?ID=37403
London (AFP) – The creation of a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" in the United States is further proof of President Donald Trump's support for the cryptocurrency sector.
Trump's "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" will be funded by about 200,000 bitcoins, worth around $17 billion in total © DALE DE LA REY / AFP/File
Trump earlier this month signed an executive order establishing the reserve, which White House crypto chief David Sacks has likened to "a digital Fort Knox", comparing it to the stockpiling of gold bars at the US military base.
Gold is held in reserves by countries worldwide as the metal is seen as a safe-haven asset, protecting against financial instability such as high inflation.
The metal on Friday surpassed $3,000 per ounce for the first time, boosted by an uncertain economic outlook amid Trump's tariffs.
Gold reserves can help also stabilise a country's currency, while bars are used as collateral for loans and transactions.
How will US bitcoin reserve work?
It is to be funded by about 200,000 bitcoins, worth around $17 billion in total, that have been seized in the United States as a result of civil and criminal cases.
The reserve will be virtually secured for an indefinite time.
Additional bitcoin can be added to the reserve as long as such action is "budget-neutral", thus not costing the taxpayer.
- Announcement fails to impress -
The price of bitcoin initially slid after Trump signed the executive order but has since stabilised.
Analysts have blamed the lack of support on a failure to immediately buy more bitcoin.
Dessislava Aubert, an analyst at crypto data provider Kaiko, told AFP that "legally" the US government must return bitcoin to all victims identified as suffering from a hack.
According to Aubert, "a big chunk" of the bitcoin held by the United States -- estimated at around 198,000 tokens -- would have to be returned to victims of a hack at crypto exchange Bitfinex in 2016.
Sector watchers are also waiting to see if other digital tokens will be added to the reserve, which is possible according to the executive order.
Trump has said that bitcoin's nearest rival, ether, along with three other tokens -- XRP, Solana and Cardano -- could be added.
Reason to copy gold reserve?
Critics of the US bitcoin reserve point out that, unlike gold, cryptocurrencies are risky assets and have no intrinsic value.
However, Sacks believes that by storing bitcoin over time, the government would protect itself from the cryptocurrency's massive short-term volatility.
Meanwhile, Stephane Ifrah, an investment director at crypto platform Coinhouse, said that bitcoin, like gold, can profit from its rarity thanks to a limited 21 million tokens.
An advantage of the bitcoin reserve is its transparency, since the level of tokens will be known at all times -- unlike the amount of gold placed in Fort Knox.
Additionally, with the bitcoin reserve, "we're dealing with a rare asset that's much more suited to today's world", Ifrah told AFP.
Prominent cryptocurrency critic, Molly White, believes the "true reason" for the reserve "is a way to drive interest in the crypto industry", which could financially benefit investors.
Trump has been accused by some of showing a conflict of interest, having vowed ahead of being elected to make the United States the "bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world".
The Financial Times reported that Trump earned $350 million from launching a meme coin, $TRUMP, to coincide with his inauguration.
The Wall Street Journal has reported that the Trump family discussed acquiring a possible stake in the Binance platform -- a report denied by the crypto exchange's founder.
Other country plans
Brazil is also considering the creation of a cryptocurrency reserve, an idea recently ruled out by the Swiss central bank.
Governments around the world are partaking in cryptocurrency activity, notably by selling digital assets seized in court cases, as was the case in Germany last year with 50,000 bitcoins.
El Salvador made bitcoin one of its official currencies, reversing the decision this year owing to a lack of take-up by citizens.
Bhutan holds nearly $900 million worth of bitcoin, equivalent to nearly 30 percent of the kingdom's gross domestic product.
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20250316-trump-s-bitcoin-reserve-a-digital-fort-knox
In uncertain times, people look for security. And what could be considered more secure than the indestructible precious metal gold?
For the first time in history, the price of gold temporarily rose above the $3,000 per troy ounce (around 31.1 grams) mark Friday morning.
The continuing geopolitical risks and rising fears of a further escalating trade dispute and additional tariffs have caused the price of the precious metal to rise further.
Fear of Gold Tariffs
While the uncertainty is already causing a high demand for what is considered a safe investment, there is an additional factor. According to a report in the «Financial Times», a significant shift in physical gold holdings from London to New York can currently be observed.
This is explained by fears that Donald Trump's administration will introduce a tariff on imports of physical gold in addition to the entire range of goods that have recently been subject to punitive tariffs.
This has created a price differential between London and the US, which several players use for arbitrage trading. In recent months, more than $61 billion worth of gold bars have flowed into the US as traders tried to avoid the potential levies. This has distorted US trade data and caused a bottleneck in London, the world's largest gold trading center.
Detour Via Switzerland
According to the report, the Swiss gold smelter Argor-Heraeus also benefits from this shift. As the gold in London is usually stored in 12.5-kilo bars (400 oz), the 1-kilo bar is common in the USA. On its way to the USA, the gold makes a stopover at the refinery in Mendrisio in Ticino to be remelted into the smaller format.
The smelter is currently working around the clock, the company's CO-CEO Robin Kolvenbach told the newspaper. «Demand has risen quite sharply. Normally, a peak in demand lasts one or two weeks. But a peak like the one we are currently experiencing, which has lasted for more than three months, is quite normal.
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $979.25 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair advancing from its previous close at $969.07.
In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $1007.15 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, also up after the XPT/USD pair settled at $1006.60 at the previous close.
Palladium FAQs Why do people buy Palladium?
Palladium is a rare and valuable precious metal with strong industrial demand, particularly in the automotive sector. It is widely used in catalytic converters to reduce vehicle emissions, making it essential for global environmental regulations. Investors also see palladium as a store of value, similar to gold and silver, and a potential hedge against inflation. Given its supply constraints and high demand, palladium often attracts traders looking for price volatility and profit opportunities.
What is Palladium in trading?
In trading, palladium (XPD/USD) is considered both an industrial and a precious metal. It is traded on major commodity exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM). Traders speculate on palladium prices through futures contracts, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and spot markets. Since palladium supply is concentrated in a few countries, particularly Russia and South Africa, geopolitical and mining disruptions can lead to significant price swings, making it an attractive asset for short-term traders and long-term investors alike.
Is Palladium more expensive than Gold?
Palladium has historically been less expensive than gold, but in recent years, it has traded at a premium due to rising demand and tight supply. Prices fluctuate based on market conditions, but palladium has, at times, outperformed gold due to its critical role in the automotive industry. However, as markets shift and industrial demand changes, the price relationship between the two metals can vary.
What does the price of Palladium depend on?
Palladium prices are influenced by several factors, including industrial demand, supply constraints, and macroeconomic conditions. The automotive industry is the biggest driver of demand, as stricter emissions regulations increase the need for palladium-based catalytic converters. Supply is heavily dependent on mining output from Russia and South Africa, making the metal vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. Additionally, broader market trends, such as the strength of the US dollar, interest rates, and economic growth, can impact palladium prices, as they do with other precious metals.
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) prices mentioned above are based on the FXStreet data feed for Contracts for Differences (CFDs).
https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-2-703353-20250318
Indian mining giant Vedanta and a consortium led by local operator Ajlan & Bros and China’s Zijin Mining are a few of the companies receiving the exploration licences. Credit: Ayman Zaid/Shutterstock.
Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources has awarded exploration licences for 4,788km² within the mineral-rich regions of Jabal Sayid and Al-Hajjar to several local and international mining companies.
This move is part of the ministry’s strategic plan to expedite the exploration and development of the kingdom’s mineral resources, which are valued at an estimated SR9.3trn.
The country began granting licences to international miners in 2022.
Indian mining giant Vedanta and a consortium led by local operator Ajlan & Bros and China’s Zijin Mining are some of the companies that were awarded the licences, reported Reuters.
The ministry stated that miners will invest around SR366m in exploration over the next three years.
The government aims to attract $100bn annually in foreign investment by 2030. The initiative is expected to contribute to the national economy and align with the Saudi Vision 2030 aimed at diversifying the country’s economy and reducing dependence on fossil fuels.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Industry and Mineral Resources, alongside the Ministry of Investment, launched the second phase of the Mining Exploration Enablement programme in January.
This initiative aims to support exploration activities and mitigate the risks associated with the early stages of exploration.
The kingdom is also offering incentives under its Mining Investment Law to encourage further investment.
These include provisions for 100% foreign ownership of mining companies and access to financing for up to 75% of capital costs from the Saudi Industrial Development Fund.
Earlier this month, the ministry launched the ninth round of exploration licence competitions for three mineralised areas spanning 24,946km².
As announced at the fourth edition of the Future Minerals Forum in January, this initiative is part of the ministry’s plan to grant exploration licences for mining sites rich in gold, copper and zinc covering more than 50,000km² of area in 2025.
The licensing competitions are a critical component of the ministry’s strategy to realise the goals for the mining and mineral industries sector.
This strategy seeks to optimise the use of mineral resources and reinforce the mining sector’s role in the national economy.
In December 2024, Saudi Arabia successfully extracted lithium from brine samples from Aramco’s oilfields.
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/saudi-arabia-exploration-licenses/
The price of gold has made new highs, but crude oil prices are under pressure after a slump yesterday.
Source: Adobe images
Written by- Chris Beauchamp- Chief Market Analyst
Article publication date: Wednesday 19 March 2025 22:51
Gold
Tuesday saw fresh highs for gold, maintaining the uptrend of recent weeks. There has been little sign of any reversal in the price, which has shrugged off all intraday weakness to keep making new record highs. In the short term, the previous peak at $2950 may provide support in the event of a drop.
Gold daily chart
Source: IG
WTI
Oil prices suffered a reversal on Tuesday, with WTI crude oil retreating from $68. Further losses target the recent lows at $65, which were previous support back in September, and in the first half of 2023.
WTI daily chart
Source: IG
Jade Gao | Afp | Getty Images
Gold prices retreated on Friday as the dollar firmed and investors booked profits after bullion hit three successive all-time peaks this week, buoyed by safe-haven demand amid trade war concerns and hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year.
Spot gold was down 0.4% to $3,033.36 an ounce. U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $3,039.60.
Bullion was on track for a third straight weekly gain, having added 1.6% so far this week. It hit an all-time high of $3,057.21 per ounce on Thursday.
The U.S. dollar was up 0.2% on Friday making greenback priced bullion more expensive for overseas buyers.
“Spot gold is seeing a healthy pullback after surging to fresh record highs above $3k, with the dollar’s recent resilience also prompting gold to ease lower,” said Han Tan, Exinity Group’s chief market analyst. “Gold’s uptrend is set to remain intact as long as risk-on sentiment fails to find its grip, especially as the April 2 deadline draws near for the next wave of U.S. tariffs.”
U.S. President Donald Trump still intends for new reciprocal tariff rates to take effect on that date.
A whirlwind of factors, including geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, have propelled gold to 16 record highs, with four above the crucial $3,000 mark.
“ETP (Exchange Traded Products) demand could continue to lead gold prices higher, even in the face of weakening physical demand across India and China,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper in a note dated Thursday.
Gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven investment during times of inflation or economic volatility, tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment.
The Fed held its benchmark rate steady as expected on Wednesday. Policymakers see the central bank delivering two quarter-percentage-point cuts by year-end.
Spot silver slid 1.5% to $33.04 an ounce, platinum lost 0.4% to $981.05, and palladium shed 0.4% to $948.43. All three were poised for weekly losses.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/21/gold-retreats-on-firm-us-dollar-on-track-for-third-weekly-gain.html
Before its closure, First Quantum’s Cobre Panama was a significant copper source, contributing 1% to global output. Credit: Piotr Swat/Shutterstock.
First Quantum’s Cobre Panama mine has initiated steps to suspend arbitration proceedings against Panama, reported Reuters.
Panama’s Commerce Ministry stipulated that negotiations with the miner could only proceed if the arbitration case was suspended.
Cobre Panama manager Manuel Aizpurua was quoted by the news agency as saying: “We have instructed our lawyers to meet with the government’s legal team to work on suspending the arbitrations… leading to a solution that benefits workers, communities, suppliers and all Panamanians.”
The authenticity of the memo has been confirmed by First Quantum Minerals, the report said.
This move comes after Panama’s president announced export approval for 120,000 million tonnes of copper concentrate, which has been stranded since November 2023, and the restart of the power plant crucial for mine operations.
President Mulino, in a press conference, authorised the removal of the stranded copper products, emphasising the need for Panama to be reimbursed once they are processed outside the country.
He stated that the mine’s future would be reviewed with the national interest in mind, starting next week.
The company previously announced that the final hearing for its Cobre Panama mine under the International Chamber of Commerce proceedings was postponed to February 2026.
The mine, located 120km west of Panama City in Colon Province, has been inactive since November 2023, when a Supreme Court decision declared its contract to be unconstitutional.
The government, under the previous administration, ordered the mine’s closure due to environmental protests, raising concerns about site maintenance and the stockpiled copper concentrate.
Shares in First Quantum rose 1% on Friday afternoon at the Toronto Stock Exchange, following a two-month high on Thursday, a 15% increase after the copper export authorisation news.
Before its closure, Cobre Panama was a significant copper source, contributing 1% to global output.
(Alliance News) - Great Southern Copper PLC on Monday announced "exceptional" high-grade copper-gold results at the Mostaza Deposit at its Cerro Negro mine in Argentina.
The Chile-focused copper, gold and lithium explorer said results showed assay grades consistently significantly higher than those of historical drill programs.
Highlighted results at the included 12.0 metres of 4.3% copper and 369.5 grams per tonne of gold from 40 metres.
Drilling also showed 13.0 metres of 2.5% copper and 198.1 grams per tonne of gold from 39 metres; and 4.2 metres of 1.7% copper and 126.5 grams from 38.9 metres.
Chief Executive Officer Sam Garrett commented: "These outstanding results confirm that high grade Copper-Gold mineralisation is continuing to depth and along strike and demonstrate that the former Mostaza mine has the potential to be a high-grade high-value Copper-Gold deposit."
GSC holds an option to own 100% of the Mostaza mine and Cerro Negro project.
CEO Garrett added that two diamond drill rigs are now on site, with one targeting strike and depth extensions of the Mostaza pit mineralisation and a second rig exploring a structural trend to the south.
Moving, forward, Great Southern says phase II drilling at Mostaza has begun and will include resource and exploration drilling. Metallurgical studies of drill core, stockpiles and tailings are also being planned. Extensions of mineralisation at depth and along trend under cover may be targeted with geophysical surveys.
"We have entered a very exciting phase of exploration at Cerro Negro and have a lot of work to do as we progress to demonstrate the potential economic viability of this exciting deposit," said CEO Garrett.
Great Southern Copper traded 8.2% higher at 3.57 pence on Monday afternoon in London.
By Aidan Lane, Alliance News reporter
Comments and questions to newsroom@alliancenews.com
Copyright 2025 Alliance News Ltd. All Rights Reserved.
Copper prices traded near a five-month high on Monday after the Chinese government vowed to revive consumption.
Chinese authorities unveiled a special action plan over the weekend aimed at boosting spending by increasing incomes.
Consumption in the country grew faster at the start of the year, helping offset the impact of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which are putting pressure on Chinese exporters. Retail sales increased by 4% in the first two months, exceeding forecasts.
However, demand from China’s property sector, a pillar of metals demand, has yet to bottom out. Chinese new-home prices fell at a quicker pace last month.
On Monday morning, copper for May delivery was trading 1% higher at $4.95 per pound ($9,900 per tonne) on the Comex market in New York.
Copper prices have risen around 12% this year after President Donald Trump signed an executive order initiating a Section 232 review of copper imports. These investigations assess the impact of imports on national security.
In addition, the copper market is grappling with a mine supply shortfall.
Last week, top supplier Codelco warned that production this quarter will be similar to or slightly below year-ago levels due to maintenance work at its El Teniente underground operation in central Chile.
The country, the world’s largest copper producer, saw its output decline by 24% month-over-month in January, marking a nine-month low.
Citigroup said it expects LME copper to hit $10,000 per tonne in the next three months as the global market remains tight.
Morgan Stanley also anticipates further gains in copper prices amid expectations of potential U.S. tariffs.
(With files from Bloomberg)
https://www.mining.com/copper-prices-near-five-month-high-as-china-moves-to-boost-consumption/
Diamond Hill Capital, an investment management company, released its “Large Cap Concentrated Fund” fourth-quarter 2024 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. Q4 saw an uneven increase in markets, capping off yet another strong year for the markets. Stocks broadly increased after the US election, but some gave up most or all of those gains before the end of the year. Against this backdrop, the portfolio trailed the Russell 1000 Index in Q4 and for the full year. The fund returned -2.00% (net) in Q4 vs 2.75% for the index. For the full year, the fund returned 14.24% compared to 24.51% for the index. In addition, you can check the top 5 holdings of the strategy to know its best picks in 2024.
In its fourth quarter 2024 investor letter, Diamond Hill Large Cap Concentrated Fund emphasized stocks such as Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX). Headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) is a mining company that explores copper, gold, molybdenum, silver, and other metals. One-month return of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) was -1.57% and its shares lost 12.66% of their value over the last 52 weeks. On March 14, 2025, Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) stock closed at $38.85 per share with a market capitalization of $55.83 billion.
Diamond Hill Large Cap Concentrated Fund stated the following regarding Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) in its Q4 2024 investor letter:
"Among our bottom individual contributors in Q4 were HCA Healthcare and Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX). Copper-focused mining company Freeport-McMoRan faced declining copper prices amid a generally challenging macroeconomic environment, including a strong US dollar, ongoing US-China trade tensions, the potential for increased tariffs under President-elect Trump’s administration and general post-election uncertainty."
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) is not on our list of 30 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 88 hedge fund portfolios held Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) at the end of the fourth quarter compared to 74 in the third quarter. While we acknowledge the potential of Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:FCX) as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter timeframe. If you are looking for an AI stock that is as promising as NVIDIA but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about the cheapest AI stock.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freeport-mcmoran-fcx-fell-declining-130906604.html
President Prabowo Subianto delivered a speech at the inauguration ceremony of PT Freeport Indonesia's smelter or precious metal refinery in the Gresik Special Economic Zone (KEK), East Java, on Monday (March 17, 2025). (ANTARA/HO-Personal Documentation)
Gresik, East Java (ANTARA) - President Prabowo Subianto inaugurated a smelter or precious metal refining plant (PMR) belonging to PT Freeport Indonesia in the Gresik Special Economic Zone (KEK), East Java, on Monday.
"This afternoon, I hereby inaugurate the precious metal refining plant of PT Freeport Indonesia in Gresik, East Java," he said at the inauguration ceremony.
He then emphasized the importance of the smelter for refining concentrates into precious metals such as gold and silver.
"This is important for our country. We want Indonesia to be able to sell finished goods with added value, not only raw materials," he said.
Based on the information gathered, the PMR factory has the capacity to produce up to 52 tons of gold per year.
The factory will process 6 thousand tons of anode mud per year to reach the production figure. Anode mud is a by-product of copper concentrate processing.
Prabowo noted that the Freeport Indonesia smelter in Gresik is believed to be the largest precious metal refining factory in the world, especially in terms of processing from upstream to downstream.
The head of state then thanked Freeport Indonesia and Freeport McMoran, which have been operating in Indonesia for more than 50 years. He lauded Freeport McMoran for its contribution to building the nation.
"In my opinion, Freeport is an example of a responsible and good corporation. Now they prove it by practicing downstreaming in Indonesia," he said.
At the inauguration ceremony, the President was accompanied by Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia; Minister of State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs), Erick Thohir; the president director of PT Freeport Indonesia, Tony Wenas; and East Java Governor Khofifah Indar Parawansa.
After the smelter inauguration, Prabowo was scheduled to fly to Sidoarjo to simultaneously inaugurate 17 stadiums nationwide from the Gelora Delta Stadium in Sidoarjo.
Translator: Genta Tenri M, Resinta Sulistiyandari
Editor: Primayanti
Copyright © ANTARA 2025
https://en.antaranews.com/news/348833/prabowo-inaugurates-freeport-indonesia-smelter-in-gresik
Kenmare Resources plc (LON:KMR)'s stock price crossed above its 200-day moving average during trading on Monday . The stock has a 200-day moving average of GBX 330.88 ($4.30) and traded as high as GBX 429.50 ($5.58). Kenmare Resources shares last traded at GBX 429.50 ($5.58), with a volume of 136,888 shares traded.
Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades
Separately, Berenberg Bank reissued a "hold" rating and issued a GBX 350 ($4.55) price objective on shares of Kenmare Resources in a research note on Thursday, March 6th.
Kenmare Resources Stock Performance
The stock has a market capitalization of £474.81 million, a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.05, a PEG ratio of 0.03 and a beta of 0.58. The stock's 50 day moving average is GBX 319 and its 200 day moving average is GBX 330.88. The company has a current ratio of 5.63, a quick ratio of 1.22 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.12.
Kenmare Resources Company Profile
Kenmare Resources plc is an Ireland-based mining company. The Company operates the Moma Titanium Minerals Mine, located on the northeast coast of Mozambique. The Moma Mine contains deposits of heavy minerals, which include the titanium minerals ilmenite and rutile, as well as the zirconium silicate mineral, zircon.
Young Poong and MBK request court intervention to secure voting rights at Korea Zinc assembly
Korea Zinc headquarters in Jongno-gu, Seoul /Courtesy of News1
The alliance of Young Poong and MBK Partners, the largest shareholder of Korea Zinc, filed a request for a 'provisional injunction for the exercise of voting rights' with the Seoul Central District Court on the 17th to exercise voting rights at the regular shareholders' meeting. Additionally, Kwon Jae-yeol, a professor at Kyunghee University School of Law, who was embroiled in a 'conflict of interest' controversy, resigned from the position of outside director candidate.
Young Poong and MBK announced this in a press release on the 18th. A company official noted, 'Chairman Choi's side is openly revealing their intention to lead the general meeting into chaos by depriving our voting rights again at the regular shareholders' meeting on the 28th,' adding, 'Such chaotic actions even obstruct the rightful exercise of voting rights by other shareholders excluding Chairman Choi’s side.'
Earlier, on the 12th, Chairman Choi's side had transferred 10.3% of Young Poong's shares held by Korea Zinc's Australian subsidiary Sun Metal Corporation (SMC) to its parent company, Sun Metal Holdings (SMH). This was an attempt to restrict Young Poong's voting rights by forming a new cross-shareholding relationship. It was just three days after the court ruling that formed a cross-shareholding through SMC was deemed illegal.
Young Poong and MBK claimed, 'Chairman Choi's side has committed acts that violate corporate law by deciding on four acting chairpersons in the order of Seo Dae-won, Hwang Deok-nam, Lee Min-ho, and Kim Do-hyun in case of the absence of representatives Park Ki-deok and Jung Tae-woong during the board meeting on the 13th, attempting to limit our voting rights by any means and drive the general meeting into chaos.' They further asserted, 'Even if we present a motion of no confidence against the chairperson, they aim to block any subsequent procedures for electing an interim chairperson, demonstrating their malicious intent to obstruct the so-called separate general meeting resolutions.'
In addition, they explained, 'As there is still a risk of illegal and unilateral restriction of voting rights at the general meeting, we aim to obtain a provisional injunction for the exercise of voting rights from the court before the meeting as one means of protecting rightful voting rights.'
Young Poong and MBK also announced that Professor Kwon Jae-yeol has resigned from the outside director candidate position. Professor Kwon had served as a specialist member of the National Pension Service's Fiduciary Responsibility Committee for three years until last month, leading to speculation that the National Pension Service would forgo exercising its voting rights to avoid the controversy over a conflict of interest.
https://biz.chosun.com/en/en-finance/2025/03/18/S3W2J5FTDRCQXIMSRCZWF4KL4Q/?outputType=amp
Molybdenum market update on March 18, 2025
The domestic molybdenum market has generally exhibited a stable yet slightly weak pattern. Over the past half month, market prices have dropped significantly, which has heightened profit awareness among many suppliers. Coupled with decent inquiry and purchasing activity from downstream users, the pace of price declines has slowed further. As of now, the total volume of molybdenum iron recruited by steel companies in March is close to 10,000 tons. Industry insiders currently predict that the molybdenum market will continue to experience narrow-range fluctuations and a slight decline in the short term.
According to China Tungsten Online, in the first half of March, the price of molybdenum concentrate fell by approximately 220 yuan per ton-degree, a decrease of 6.18%; molybdenum iron prices dropped by about 10,000 yuan per ton, a decline of 6.18%; molybdenum oxide prices decreased by around 190 yuan per ton-degree, a drop of 5.19%; sodium molybdate prices fell by approximately 2,000 yuan per ton, a decrease of 1.24%; ammonium tetramolybdate prices dropped by about 7,000 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.13%; ammonium heptamolybdate prices decreased by around 4,000 yuan per ton, a drop of 1.75%; molybdenum powder prices fell by approximately 25 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 5.88%; and molybdenum bar prices dropped by about 20 yuan per kilogram, a decline of 4.35%. It is evident that the price of molybdenum concentrate saw the most significant decline at that time, primarily due to the fact that its price had risen the most before October of the previous year.
According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of March 2025, key monitored steel enterprises produced a total of 20.07 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.007 million tons, representing a 12.8% decrease in daily production compared to the previous period. Regionally, daily steel production decreased by 41,000 tons in Northeast China, 104,000 tons in North China, 104,000 tons in East China, 5,000 tons in Northwest China, 9,000 tons in Southwest China, and 31,000 tons in Central-South China.
U.S. and London copper prices scaled fresh multi-month highs on Wednesday as speculators extended buying on expectations that U.S. tariffs will be slapped on the metal.
Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 0.5% to $9,955 a metric ton by 1520 GMT, its highest since October 8.
Most active May copper futures on the U.S. Comex exchange climbed 1.2% to a 10-month high of $5.08 a pound.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products took effect last week and he has also ordered an investigation into potential new tariffs on copper.
Systematic funds that use computer analysis were leading the buying on the market largely based on surging momentum as technical levels are broken, a trader said.
Some investors were buying base metals and selling ferrous metals or oil in relative value trades, Alastair Munro at Marex said in a note.
Some analysts warned, however, that the high copper prices were not supported by supply/demand fundamentals.
“We’ve still got this pressure to get as much stuff as possible across to America. The copper arb (arbitrage), which we quote, that’s continuing to blow out,” said Dan Smith, head of research at Amalgamated Metal Trading.
The premium on Comex copper over the LME price widened to a record $1,236 a ton, surpassing a record peak hit on Tuesday.
“I’m actually quite nervous about what’s going to happen in three to six months’ time because I think a lot of this is rather artificial,” Smith said.
Curbing gains was a stronger dollar index, which makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for buyers using other currencies.
Zinc was the worst LME performer, slipping 1.4% to $2,923 a ton after Boliden said on Tuesday it was commissioning an upgrade of its Odda zinc smelter to boost capacity to 350,000 tons a year from 200,000.
Among other metals, LME aluminum rose 0.4% to $2,665 a ton and nickel climbed 0.8% to $16,380 while lead dipped 0.3% to $2,088 and tin shed 0.7% to $34,995.
Bismuth prices in Europe have surged to all-time highs as China’s export controls squeeze supplies of the mineral used in atomic research, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals, according to traders and experts.
Prices of bismuth have jumped to $40 a lb on the European spot market, an all-time high, up from $6 per lb in late January, a more than six-fold rise.
In the United States, bismuth prices are even higher – at $55 a lb compared with $6.5-$7 before China’s export curbs.
Traders said U.S. prices were also higher because of the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump on imports from top producer China.
China in February announced plans to impose export controls on five key metals – tungsten, tellurium, molybdenum, bismuth, and indium – in response to Trump’s import tariffs.
“At the moment there are no supply sources to fully replace Chinese material,” commodity analysts with business intelligence company CRU Group told Reuters.
“As much of the supply tightness is based on policy, it can ease very quickly. But assuming a full stop of Chinese bismuth exports, new capacity ex-China would be necessary.”
According to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China was responsible for producing around 13,000 metric tons of mined bismuth last year or more than 80% of the global total. The rest comes from countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Laos.
Prices have risen significantly, making it risky to ship materials for stockpiling since delivery takes about two months and no one knows where the market will be by then, said a Europe-based trader.
“This situation is causing a very low unsold inventory level internationally, keeping the price for prompt material at a very high level,” he added.
Meanwhile, the most active bismuth contract on the Wuxi Stainless Steel Exchange was trading at 163,800 yuan ($22,677) per metric ton on Tuesday, 105% higher than at the beginning of the year.
(Reporting by Ashitha Shivaprasad and Anmol Choubey in Bengaluru, additional reporting by Amy Lv in Beijing. Editing by Pratima Desai and Mark Potter)
https://www.mining.com/web/european-bismuth-prices-rocket-to-record-highs-on-china-export-curbs/
Aurion maintains the right to continue exploration for gold and silver in the project area. Credit: BJP7images/Shutterstock.
Canadian miner Aurion Resources has entered into a definitive agreement with KoBold Exploration Finland, a subsidiary of KoBold Metals, for the exploration of critical minerals in Finland.
Under the deal, Aurion grants KoBold the right to earn a 75% interest in commodities, excluding gold or silver, found in the project area, which comprises 35km² of Aurion’s fully owned 160km² Risti property in Finland.
KoBold will spend $12m (€11.07m) on exploration by the fifth anniversary of the agreement’s signing as part of the deal.
The company is also required to commit a minimum exploration expenditure of $1m within the first 18 months.
Following the fulfilment of the earn-in requirements, a joint venture (JV) will be formed between KoBold and Aurion, with ownership stakes of 75% and 25%, respectively.
Additionally, if any party’s ownership in the JV falls below 10%, it will convert to a 2% net smelter returns royalty.
Aurion CEO Matti Talikka said: “Aurion is pleased to welcome KoBold Metals as a partner with an aim to unlock value from the base metal and critical mineral potential of the eastern part of the Risti property.
“The agreement with a split commodity structure enables Aurion to retain full exploration and ownership rights over significant gold and silver discoveries while leveraging KoBold’s expertise in exploration for metals and minerals important for the green energy transition.
“The base metal prospectivity of the region is well evidenced by the Kevitsa Ni-Cu-PGE [nickel-copper-Platinum Group Element] Mine (Boliden) and the Sakatti Ni-Cu-PGE discovery (Anglo American) located 12km from the Risti property.”
Aurion will retain the complete rights to areas within the project area where gold or silver are predominantly found and continue exploration for gold and silver during both the earn-in and JV phases, as long as it holds an ownership interest.
KoBold Metals chief strategy officer Daniel Enderton said: “We welcome the opportunity to work with Aurion to explore for critical metals on part of their Risti property. We look forward to combining these experiences and operating capabilities with KoBold’s team and technologies to search for a new discovery on this property. We are looking forward to getting the exploration teams on the ground in the coming months.”
In February 2024, KoBold Metals, supported by billionaires like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, signed a deal with Midnight Sun Mining to explore Zambia’s Dumbwa target at the Solwezi copper project.
https://www.mining-technology.com/news/aurion-resource-kobold-risti-property/
The technology supports the shift to more eco-friendly and socially acceptable mining. Credit: T. Schneider/Shutterstock.
Chilean state-owned copper miner Codelco is exploring the adoption of a novel technology developed by American-Canadian billionaire Robert Friedland’s I-Pulse that utilises electricity to fracture rocks, reported Bloomberg.
Chilean miners are facing the challenge of declining ore quality, which necessitates processing more rock to maintain metal production levels.
During an interview, Codelco’s executive chairman, Maximo Pacheco, expressed his company’s interest in collaborating with I-Pulse.
Both the companies “have a lot of interest in working together”, he said, noting the “very good relations” formed with I-Pulse after visiting their laboratories in Toulouse, France.
Pacheco emphasised the importance of innovation in meeting the surging demand for critical minerals such as copper and lithium.
“I-Pulse and Robert Friedland have a lot of experience and are doing very interesting things. We are following them very closely,” he added.
I-Pulse, a private US company, specialises in pulsed power technology with applications across various industries including mining.
The company’s I-ROX venture specifically targets the mining sector, aiming to reduce the environmental impact of rock shattering.
The technology has already attracted investments from major players such as BHP Group and a European fund connected to Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Ventures.
Robert Friedland has confirmed ongoing discussions with Codelco. “We are in discussions with Codelco and many others about the use of I-Pulse technology,” he stated during a telephone interview.
Friedland’s company has also garnered investments from other mining companies including Rio Tinto Group, Newmont and Teck Resources.
In January 2025, Chile’s national development agency, Corfo, launched an initiative to extract cobalt and rare earths from mining waste.
(March 20): Copper marched past its key threshold of US$10,000 (RM44,280) a ton after weeks of global trade dislocation triggered by President Donald Trump’s push for tariffs on the crucial industrial metal.
Trump last month ordered the US Commerce Department to investigate imports of copper as a likely precursor to imposing duties. Since then, prices have spiked and traders have scrambled to send metal to America ahead of any tariffs, in turn reducing supply in the rest of the world.
Copper on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 0.5% to US$10,040 a ton on Thursday — the highest level since October — while prices on New York’s Comex neared a record high.
“This is a round of cross-regional repricing triggered by potential US tariffs,” said Wei Lai, deputy trading head at Zijin Mining Investment Shanghai Co. “While cargoes are lured to the US, leaving other places in shortfall. Buying sentiment is very strong.”
Copper’s surge is just one part of the turmoil unleased by Trump’s bid to reshape global trade and bolster defences for US domestic producers. He’s slapped 25% import tariffs on steel and aluminum, hit Canada, Mexico and China with duties, and has promised sweeping “reciprocal” tariffs starting next month.
The investigation into copper imports is unlikely to deliver its recommendations until later this year, but Goldman Sachs Group Inc and Citigroup Inc are among those anticipating the US will impose 25% import levies on copper by the end of 2025.
Comex copper prices are now up 27% since the start of the year, while the LME price is up about 14%. The big gap has created a huge incentive for traders and producers to keep moving supplies to the US, and more than 100,000 tons may be on its way. Major commodities players including Trafigura Group and Glencore plc are among those diverting metal from Asia, according to people familiar with the trades.
Copper traded at US$9,999 a ton on the LME by 9.50am Shanghai time.
LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - London copper prices hit a five-month high on Thursday breaking above a major psychological mark of $10,000 per metric ton before retreating under pressure from a stronger dollar.
Benchmark three-month copper CMCU3 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 0.1% to $9,975 a ton by 1151 GMT after hitting $10,046.50, its highest since October 3.
Supporting the London price is the continuing growth in the most active May copper futures on the U.S. Comex exchange , which were last up 0.5% at $5.125 a pound after hitting a ten-month high of $5.1485.
The premium of the Comex most active contract hit a record high of $1,342 per ton on Wednesday and was last at $1,319 as the United States continues a probe into potential new tariffs on copper. U.S. President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium products took effect last week.
With a wide premium between the Comex and LME copper and the tariff threat itself, lots of copper is heading to the United States now, a source at a U.S. warehouse operator said.
The anticipated surge in imports into the U.S. is tightening supplies in other regions, analysts at ING said in a note.
Comex copper stocks are down 7.5% since mid-February to 93,154 tons, but outflows from the LME copper stocks continue, daily LME data showed. The copper stocks in the LME-registered warehouses are at 223,275 metric tons, their lowest since mid-July.
LME aluminium rose 0.5% to $2,682.50 a ton and zinc gained 0.1% to $2,926.50 after daily LME data showed massive fresh cancellations, bringing the cancelled stocks to 60% of the total for both metals. <0#MALSTX-LOC> <0#MZNSTX-LOC>
The cancellations indicate only the intention to remove the product from the LME system, and the metal can be put back on warrant.
March 16, 2025 - 08:41 PM
The leading Vietnamese steel manufacturer attributed this outcome to multiple factors, including its modern production technology and optimised manufacturing processes, which ensure competitive prices. Additionally, th company fully cooperated with the EU in the investigation, proactively providing all required data.
The exemption from anti-dumping duties reflected the firm’s legal expertise in handling international trade regulations. Furthermore, downstream businesses using Hoa Phat’s HRC will have greater opportunities to export to the EU without concerns over origin or raw material pricing issues.
The recent announcement from the European Commission (EC) also specifies that the provisional tariffs will apply to certain flat-rolled iron, non-alloy steel, or other alloy steel products, whether in coil form or not, that have not undergone further processing beyond hot rolling and are neither coated nor plated. These affected products originate from Egypt, Japan, and Vietnam.
Previously, on August 8, 2024, the EC initiated an anti-dumping investigation into specific hot rolled coil steel products imported from Egypt, India, Japan, and Vietnam. Currently, Vietnamese exporters such as Formosa and other HRC suppliers face a provisional duty of 12.1% when exporting to the EU. Meanwhile, Japanese HRC imports are subject to duties ranging from 6.9% to 33%, while Egyptian exports incur a 15.6% duty./.
Industries & Commerce Minister T.G. Bharat stated that the Secretary of Ministry of Steel was scheduled to have a discussion with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu in Amaravati on March 31 about the revival of Visakhapatnam Steel Plant (VSP) and improving its performance.
Visakhapatnam Steel Plant sets record with 31 lakh tonnes of hot metal production despite financial crisis.
Replying to a question asked by Visakhapatnam South MLA Vamsi Krishna Srinivas on the release of Central funds to VSP in the Legislative Assembly on Monday (March 17, 2025), Mr. Bharat said the first tranche of ₹6,783 crore has already been released on January 30, 2025.
The ₹11,440 crore revival package approved by the Centre consisted of ₹10,300 crore equity (including ₹500 crore already released in September 2024) and conversion of a Government of India loan of 1,140 crore loan into 7% non-cumulative preference share capital redeemable after 10 years.
The Central Government was working out the plan of allocation of captive mines with the National Mineral Development Corporation Limited (NMDC) similar to the arrangement being made for the Arcelor Mittal steel plant coming up in Anakapalli district.
While sanctioning a financial package of ₹11,440 crore, the Central Government requested the State to waive power and water bills payable by the VSP for three years, and to take care of the security being currently provided by about 450 CISF personnel at an exorbitant cost of ₹100 crore.
The State Government was sorting these things out, Mr. Bharat said, adding that the ‘double engine government’ was committed to making VSP a quick turnaround and performer better than in the past.
Producers took advantage of the tightening of tariff protection in the European steel market
Indonesian and Vietnamese slab suppliers raised their selling prices for EU customers to $500/t SFR in mid-March, according to SteelOrbis. In mid-February, offers were at $480-485/t CFR Europe. During this period, Chinese producers raised prices for overseas shipments by $20/t, to $520/t CFR. In Italy, imported slabs rose from $490-520/t to $500-530/t CIF.
The price of deliveries increased after the European Commission announced a revision of protective measures for imports of hot-rolled coils. According to market participants, the reduction in quotas will reduce overseas deliveries to the EU. In turn, this will help increase the output of rolled products for European plants. In anticipation of increased demand from their side, Asian slab producers responded by raising their selling prices.
At the moment, the potential for price increases has been exhausted, and producers are waiting for a response from the market. China’s Baosteel, after raising prices by $14/t in March, kept its selling prices for April at the current level for all types of flat products.
The rise in imported slab prices is pushing up European prices for flat products.
"Considering slab prices at $500–520/t CIF, €650/t FOB for thick plate steel is not a luxury, but a necessity to ensure breakeven" a source at the plant told Fastmarkets.
Brazilian slab suppliers for deliveries to the US maintained their offer at $505/t FOB by mid-March. This is in line with the quotes observed at the end of February. In January, slab imports to the US grew by 68.5% compared to the previous month and 19% in annual comparison, to 602 thousand tons. Of these, 2/3 of the volume came from Brazil.
As reported, the European Commission has set temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled coil from Egypt, Japan and Vietnam in the range of 6.9-33%. They will come into force on April 7. No signs of dumping were found with respect to Indian products.
https://gmk.center/en/news/global-slab-prices-rose-in-the-first-half-of-march/
Offers are up $15/mt week-on-week and $170/mt since the beginning of the year
The US steel company Nucor has announced another increase in the spot price (CSP) for hot rolled coil (HRC). Starting from March 17, 2025, the base price of HRC will be $930 per short tonne for all production facilities except California Steel Industries (CSI), where the price has reached $990 per tonne.
This is the eighth price increase since the beginning of the year (+$170/mt). Compared to the previous week, basic offers increased by $15/t.
According to Kallanish, as of March 14, 2025, hot rolled coil prices in North America were $950-1000 per short tonne, while at the end of February they were $800-900 per tonne.
The US steel market was also marked by rising prices for structural steel. In particular, Gerdau Long Steel in North America raised prices for most types of long products by $40 per short ton. All confirmed orders as of March 14 will be fulfilled at the old price if delivered by March 28.
“We will continue to monitor the market to ensure that Gerdau and our partners are on a competitive playing field and reserve the right to make adjustments to our pricing policy as needed,” Gerdau said in a letter.
Nucor Bar Group has raised prices for most structural and construction steel by $40 per tonne as of March 14, 2025.
In February, Cleveland-Cliffs announced the opening of the April contract period for hot rolled steel (HRC), setting its price at $900 per tonne. Cliffs’ decision coincides with recent reports on NLMK USA’s pricing policy. The company aims to set the price for hot-rolled steel at $900 per short ton and $1100 per ton for coated cold-rolled steel.
https://gmk.center/en/news/nucor-raises-prices-for-hot-rolled-steel-once-again-up-to-930-t/
India's Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR) has recommended a 12pc provisional safeguard duty on flat steel imports to protect the domestic industry.
The duty should be imposed for 200 days, according to a notice on 18 March from the DGTR, which is the government's investigative agency. The agency has recommended putting the safeguard measures in place immediately, citing potential damage resulting from any delays.
The proposed duty is lower than the 25pc rate sought by Indian steel mills to restrict inflows of cheaper imports that have pressured company profits.
The DGTR launched the safeguard investigation in December following an application by the Indian Steel Association. The agency concluded that there has been a "recent, sudden, sharp and significant increase in imports" of the products under investigation, which include hot-rolled and cold-rolled coils and sheets as well as galvanized and color-coated steel. Section 232 restrictions imposed by the US in 2018 and a flurry of protectionist measures by other countries have led to a diversion of trade flows to India, boosting imports, the agency said.
For hot-rolled coil (HRC), the proposed safeguard duty will not be applicable if product is imported at or above $675/t on a cif basis, the agency said.
Expectations of safeguard duties was one of the reasons for a recent jump in domestic HRC prices, which had fallen to multi-year lows in 2024 because of cheaper imports and lackluster domestic demand. Several Indian steel market participants had said the outlook for Indian steel prices was bearish in the absence of safeguards.
Argus assessed weekly Indian domestic 2.5-4.0mm HRC at 50,150 rupees/t ($579/t) ex-Mumbai, excluding goods and services tax, on 14 March, a rise of nearly 5pc compared to the end of February.
India became a net steel importer in the April 2023-March 2024 fiscal year and has remained so in the current fiscal year, which ends in March. Over April 2024-January 2025, finished steel imports rose by 21pc on the year to 8.4mn t, with South Korea being the biggest supplier. South Korea, China and Japan accounted for more than three-quarters of India's total finished steel imports during the last ten months, according to ministry data.
China and Vietnam will be the only developing nations that will incur duties, while others will be exempt, according to the DGTR's recommendations. This is because among developing countries, only China and Vietnam individually account for more than 3pc of imports into India, while other developing countries collectively do not have a more than 9pc share of imports, the agency said. A hearing will be scheduled ahead of a final decision on safeguards, the DGTR said.
Posco Holdings, the holding company of South Korean steel giant Posco Group, announced Wednesday it will fully divest its shares in Nippon Steel while maintaining the strong partnership between the two steelmakers.
In its business report, Posco classified its 467 billion won ($321 million) stake in Nippon Steel as assets held for sale. The company has not yet determined the timing or method of the sale.
"We have decided to sell our long-term investment securities in Nippon Steel," Posco stated in the report, noting that the decision was reached through mutual consultation as part of a value enhancement strategy, which includes securing cash.
The move follows Nippon Steel’s decision last September to offload its entire stake in Posco Holdings, valued at approximately 1.1 trillion won, as it pursued a $14.9 billion takeover of US Steel.
The relationship between Posco and Nippon Steel traces back to 1968, when the Japanese firm provided technical and financial assistance for constructing the Pohang Steelworks. To bolster their alliance, both companies acquired stakes in each other in the early 2000s.
"Both companies initially acquired mutual stakes as a safeguard against hostile takeovers," a Posco official explained. "However, as this protection is no longer needed, we have agreed to move forward with the sale, though our strategic partnership remains intact."
By Metal Miner - Mar 19, 2025, 2:00 PM CDT
Via Metal Miner
The Stainless Monthly Metals Index (MMI) remained sideways, supported by modest increases among most of its components. The index rose by a modest 0.56% from February to March. Meanwhile, nickel prices continued their uptrend.
Outokumpu Reduces Stainless Steel Discounts
Outokumpu closed out February announcing reductions to a number of stainless steel discounts. Beginning March 1, a range of materials, including several 200, 300 and 400 series cold and hot rolled products, saw their prices increase. Notably, North American Stainless (NAS) chose not to follow their competitor.
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Outokumpu’s announcement come after more than a year of bearish conditions within the stainless market, as oversupply forced domestic mills to repeatedly lower prices, albeit mostly transactionally. While mills are typically quick to inform customers when prices increase, they usually remain quiet when prices decline, which procurement insiders call a “silent slope.” MetalMiner reports stainless mill discounts in the Month Metal Outlook Report and Should-Cost Models on Insights.
Despite Discount Cuts, Stainless Market Remains Slow
Despite Outokumpu’s efforts, market conditions remain weak. Suppliers reported increased buying activity during Q1 2025, but none characterized this increase as a sharp and meaningful rebound in the market.
Despite the 25% tariffs also including stainless steel, offshore stainless steel prices in Asia remained largely unaffected due to existing duties. “By late February, stainless prices from the continent, particularly for common grades like 304, remained competitive with domestic prices. This region is mainly responsible for keeping pressure on the U.S. market, and benefits from advantages like low-priced Indonesian nickel and lower operational costs.
Considering NAS’ decision to maintain its pricing, suppliers believe Outokumpu’s move was largely strategic. The mill likely hopes to bolster its position ahead of H2 contract negotiations, even if that means forgoing tons to competitors in the meantime. NAS could follow Outokumpu should the recent increases in buying activity continue. However, the broad rise in price pressures on consumers may challenge this trend in the coming months, all covered in MetalMiner’s Weekly Newsletter. Notably, the ISM manufacturing PMI saw its Prices Index increase as its New Orders Index decreased.
U.S. Dollar Decline Boosts Nickel Prices
Supported by rising nickel prices, stainless steel surcharges appear poised for an increase in April. So far, nickel prices have increased nearly 9% from the start of 2025 to where they currently stand at $16,530/mt as of March 17.
While on the rise, the fundamentals of the nickel market appear largely unchanged. Moreover, both LME and SHFE inventories seem well-stocked. Despite the modest decline over the last month, SHFE stocks remain near where they trended throughout 2020. Meanwhile, since the summer of 2023, LME stocks have been on an almost uninterrupted trip upward to where they currently stand at their highest level since August 2021.
Source: MetalMiner Insights, Chart & Correlation Analysis Tool
Despite robust global supply, most base metal prices have experienced a lift since the start of the year. This has been aided by declines in the U.S. dollar index, which currently sits at the low end of its long-term sideways range. Analysts attribute the slump in the U.S. dollar to several factors, including last year’s cuts to interest rates and increasing recession risks in the U.S.
The U.S. Dollar and Commodities
While the U.S. dollar index does not hold a strong correlation with metal prices, its overall movement does impact commodity prices. For instance, a weaker U.S. dollar index, which tracks the value of the U.S. dollar compared to other currencies, makes it cheaper for holders of other currencies to purchase assets priced in USD.
Whether the U.S. dollar will continue to depreciate remains in question, as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties could influence its trajectory. The Federal Reserve has thus far opted to pause interest rate cuts, which offers support. Meanwhile, inflation remains sticky, while the U.S. labor market appears strong. For its part, the market seems to accept that there are no further cuts on the horizon, at least in the short-term.
https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Outokumpu-Adjusts-Stainless-Steel-Pricing-Strategy.html
Product shipments grow for the second year in a row after a significant drop in 2022
In 2024, steel companies in the European Union (EU) increased exports of long products to third countries by 3.6% compared to 2023, to 6.36 million tons. Shipments have been growing for the second year in a row after falling by 17.4% y/y in 2022. This is according to GMK Center’s calculations based on Eurostat data.
The largest export volumes for the year were angles, shapes and special sections made of unalloyed steel (HS-7216) – 2.14 million tons, up 0.7% y/y. Another 1.29 million tons (+8.9% y/y) of exports were made up of other rods and bars of carbon steel, not further processed, twisted (HS – 7214), and 1.17 million tons (+3.7% y/y) of hot-rolled rods and bars of carbon steel, in coils (HS – 7213).
More than 60% of exports went to the US, Turkey, the UK, Switzerland, China, and Norway.
The largest volumes were supplied to the UK – 1.43 million tons (+11.6% y/y). Of these, 608.79 thousand tons (+33.5% y/y) were angles, shapes and special sections.
Another 890.5 thousand tons were shipped to the United States (+19.1% y/y), 752.2 thousand tons (+1.9% y/y) – to Switzerland, and 461 thousand tons (-12.3% y/y) – to Turkey. The company exported 176.31 thousand tons (-2.3% y/y) to Norway, 161.3 thousand tons (-13.8% y/y) – to China, 39.15 thousand tons (-27.8% y/y) – to Ukraine, and 36.7 thousand tons (-2.2% y/y) – to Egypt.
The key exporters of long products among the EU countries are:
Germany – 1.5 million tons;
Spain – 1.41 million tons;
Italy – 1.05 million tons;
Portugal – 485.56 thousand tons.
Thus, the European long products market is showing a gradual recovery, which indicates that production has stabilized and demand in key foreign markets, including the UK, the US and Switzerland, remains strong.
However, a number of factors continue to weigh on the export sector. First, high energy prices and production costs in the EU reduce the competitiveness of European steelmakers compared to producers from Turkey or China. Secondly, geopolitical instability, including trade restrictions, affects supply chains.
Despite these challenges, the outlook for 2025 remains moderately positive. Exports are expected to continue to grow due to the recovery in economic activity in the US and the UK, as well as a potential improvement in the EU’s terms of trade. At the same time, possible fluctuations in commodity markets and regulatory changes may create additional risks for exporters.
https://gmk.center/en/infographic/eu-exported-6-4-million-tons-of-long-products-in-2024/
Seoul, March 20: The South Korean government has launched a probe into suspected dumping of hot-rolled carbon steel and optical fibre products from China and Japan, the industry ministry said on Thursday.
The Korea Trade Commission (KTC) commenced the probe into alleged dumping of hot-rolled products of carbon steel and alloy steel by six Japanese companies, including JFE Shoji Corp., and five Chinese companies that include Benxi Iron and Steel Group.
The decision follows a complaint from Hyundai Steel Co., a major South Korean steel company, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, reports Yonhap news agency.
The KTC also opened a separate investigation into allegations that three Chinese companies dumped single mode optical fibre products at lower prices than their normal value following a complaint filed by LS Cable & System Ltd., South Korea's biggest cable company.
Following three months of preliminary investigation, the KTC plans to conduct a main investigation into the cases for another three to five months before delivering its decisions.
The KTC also held a public hearing on the ongoing investigation into suspected dumping of Chinese and Taiwanese petroleum resin products as part of efforts to guarantee the defence rights of the related parties, according to the ministry.
The KTC made a preliminary decision in December to impose a maximum of 18.52 percent of antidumping tariffs on those products.
Meanwhile, POSCO Holdings, the holding company of South Korea's leading steelmaker POSCO, said on Thursday it will launch a new department to deal with global trade issues, a move that apparently comes in the face of U.S. President Donald Trump's ever-changing tariff policies.
POSCO Holdings will kick off the new department Friday to handle trade issues ranging from steel and rechargeable battery materials to overseas energy resources development on behalf of its affiliates, the company said in a press release.
"There has been such a team that handles global trade affairs under POSCO, but the new department is for all affiliates under the holding company," a company spokesperson said.
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator Lee Zeldin said it is “not a binary choice” to either protect the environment or grow the economy.
“We don’t have to just choose one,” he explained.
Joining Breitbart News Washington bureau chief Matt Boyle on the Breitbart News Saturday radio show, Zeldin went over his recent historic launch of the largest deregulatory effort in U.S. history and talked about the EPA’s sweeping deregulations to “save the coal industry” and “bring down the cost of living.”
After announcing 31 deregulations on Wednesday, including the termination of the Biden administration’s “Environmental Justice and DEI arms of the agency (EJ/DEI),” Zeldin told Boyle, “Undoubtedly, we’re going to be able to create jobs, including inside the American auto sector.”
“We will bring down the cost of living. It’s going to be easier to heat your home, to purchase a vehicle, to operate a business,” the former New York congressman said, touting President Donald Trump’s economic plan.
“A lot of Americans struggling to make ends meet want common sense back into the federal government, and we’re going to do our part at the EPA,” Zeldin continued. “So that’s why we made this announcement. It’s a lot of regulatory actions impacting the energy space. We want to make it easier for people to be able to access choice.”
In its announcement, the EPA stated that the deregulatory actions will “roll back trillions in regulatory costs and hidden ‘taxes'” on American families.
One of the larger commitments made by the agency was to clear the hundreds of backlogged cases having to do with clean air, saying the Biden administration focused on “ideological pursuits” rather than the agency’s “core mission.”
Zeldin also told Boyle that the EPA is “eliminating” the Biden administration’s electric vehicle (EV) mandate.
“President Trump talks about clean, beautiful coal, and what we’re doing on Wednesday is going to save the coal industry,” he stated.
“I’ve been told that we’re going after the holy grail of the climate change religion, and I would just say this: that we can protect the environment and grow the economy. It’s not a binary choice,” he explained. “We don’t have to just choose one. The Trump administration chooses both.”
The latest rollbacks came soon after Zeldin announced massive cuts made with the help of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), including the cancellation of 400 DEI (diversity, equity, and inclusion) and EJ (environmental justice) grants to save nearly $2 billion, and a pledge to recover the $20 billion in taxpayer funds lost by the Biden administration to climate projects.
Breitbart News Saturday airs on SiriusXM Patriot 125 from 10:00 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. Eastern.
Thermal power generation in China, which overwhelmingly consists of coal plants, dropped by 5.8% in January and February compared to the same months of 2024, official data showed on Monday.
Thermal power generation fell to 1.02 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in January and February, which China combines in economic and data releases to smooth out the effect of the Lunar New Year which falls in one of these two months every year.
The drop in thermal generation was offset by an increase in hydropower output, which is the second biggest source of electricity in China.
Hydropower generation increased by 4.5% on the year to 146.1 billion kWh, according to data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics cited by Reuters.
Last year, thermal power generation in China rose by 1.5% compared to 2023, despite the surge in renewable power capacity installations and the rebound of hydropower after a drought in 2023.
Coal is still king in China despite the renewables boom with record additions of solar and wind power generation.
Last year, growth in thermal power generation was the weakest in nearly a decade, excluding the pandemic years 2020-2022 when China was under lockdowns.
The persistent growth in Chinese coal demand, including for power generation, goes to show that coal remains the baseload of China’s power system to back up the surge in renewables and will stay such for years to come as power demand jumps with the increasing electrification of homes and transport.
Renewables have started to replace a small part of coal-fired power generation, but during prolonged heat waves and at peak winter demand, it is coal that is keeping the lights and heating/cooling on in China.
The rising numbers of the middle class in cities boost electricity consumption, and so does industry, although at a slower pace due to the weaker Chinese economic growth in recent months.
A decline in import volumes by major consumers failed to support quotes
Offers for Australian coking coal in China from March 17 to 19 fell by $7/t, to $173/t CFR Qingdao, according to Metalplace. Since the beginning of March, quotes have fallen by 9%, and by 13.5% since the beginning of the year.
Prices for Russian coal in January-February remained stable, but in mid-March they also began to fall. From March 13 to 19, sellers’ requests fell from $123 to $115/t CFR Qingdao. China’s introduction of a 15% duty on coking coal imports from the United States did not help suppliers from Australia, Indonesia and Russia maintain prices.
Indian prices for premium Australian coking coal fell to $198/t in mid-March, CNF Paradip, from $200/t at the start of the month, according to Kallanish.
On the Singapore Exchange, futures contracts for premium Australian coking coal for April delivery were trading at $175.5 t FOB last week. In the first week of March, similar offers were at $182/t FOB.
Sellers’ quotes fell amid lower shipments. In February, seaborne coking coal imports to Asia fell to 15.85 million tonnes, a three-year low. Shipments to India fell by 6% y/y and by 25% m/m to 4.22 million t. Shipments to South Korea fell by 17% y/y and by 13% m/m to 8.47 million t.
Seaborne coal imports to China also declined due to growth in land shipments from Mongolia. At the same time, coke production in China increased by 1.6% in January-February to 81.9 million t. Low demand is confirmed by the resale by Chinese and other Asian end users of several shipments of American coking coal that were already in transit.
Stocks in Asian ports remain high, allowing buyers to expect further price declines. A factor hindering this is the steady increase in freight rates for coal transportation from Australia, South Africa and Indonesia. Freight has been rising since the beginning of the year and is due to limited availability of vessels in loading areas.
The fall in coking coal prices in the Asian region and Chinese tariffs make the European market more attractive for US suppliers. As is known, due to the cessation of production by the Pokrovsky mine, Ukrainian metallurgists are forced to switch to importing American and Polish coal.
As reported, the analytical company BMI, part of Fitch Solutions, expects the average price of coking coal in 2025 to be $220/t. Slowdown in steel production growth in importing countries, with the exception of India, will continue to limit demand for coking coal.
https://gmk.center/en/news/asian-coking-coal-prices-accelerated-their-decline/
“We estimate that coal shipments to China will show a 15% fall y/y during the first quarter of 2025, reaching a three-year-low. Seaborne cargoes have slowed due to weaker domestic demand and higher competition from domestic supplies and overland imports. Thermal coal cargoes have been particularly affected, though coking coal shipments have also decreased,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
During the first two months of 2025, thermal coal demand weakened due to a 6% y/y decrease in electricity generation from coal. Total electricity generation fell 1% y/y amid an unseasonably warm winter, and generation from renewable sources continued to rise. Coking coal demand dropped due to a 1% fall in steel production.
During the same period, domestic mining in China continued to ramp up, rising 8% y/y. A year prior, safety issues in Chinese mines led to a slowdown in mined volumes. However, this seems to no longer be an issue. Imports via rail have also continued to grow, especially from Mongolia, negatively impacting demand for seaborne cargoes.
“Tonne mile demand is estimated to have performed even worse than volumes, falling 25% y/y during the first quarter of 2025. Average sailing distances have shortened due to weaker volumes from Colombia and shorter distances for Russian cargoes,” says Gouveia.
Most coal cargoes into China come from nearby countries such as Indonesia, Australia and Russia. So far this year, these countries have accounted for 57%, 16% and 14% of volumes respectively. While the US, Canada and Colombia have only contributed 6% of volumes, they still accounted for 17% of tonne mile demand.
Of the larger exporters, Indonesia has fared the best with volumes only falling 11% y/y. North American shipments also performed well, with Canadian cargoes surging 42% y/y and US cargoes only falling 10% y/y. This is despite an increase in Chinese import tariffs effective since 4 February.
The panamax segment has been the most popular for transporting coal to China, accounting for 57% of year-to-date shipments. Despite weaker cargo, volumes on panamaxes still increased 1% y/y, crowding out the other segments, partly due to comparatively weaker freight rates.
“Looking ahead, the outlook seems timid for coal shipments to China. Import demand could remain low as the country expands electricity generation from renewables, domestic mining and rail links with Mongolia and Russia. Nonetheless, spikes in demand could still occur due to increased electricity use during extreme temperatures or during periods of weaker production from renewables,” says Gouveia.
https://www.marinelink.com/news/weak-demand-drives-china-coal-imports-523718
Molybdenum market update on March 17, 2025
At the beginning of the week, the domestic molybdenum market in China continued to exhibit a slight downward trend overall, with prices of molybdenum concentrate, ferromolybdenum, and molybdenum oxide dropping by approximately 10 yuan, 1,000 yuan, and 10 yuan, respectively. This is mainly attributed to factors such as a weak international molybdenum market, low steel bidding prices, and relatively abundant spot supply in the market. According to China Tungsten Online, steel companies recently entering the market to bid for ferromolybdenum include Zhongtian Steel, Jiangsu Shagang, Changshu Longteng, Jiangsu Nangang, and CITIC Pacific, with bidding prices generally below 220,000 yuan/ton.
According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in the first ten days of March 2025, key monitored steel enterprises produced a total of 21.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.132 million tons, representing a month-on-month decline of 5.6%. By region, the daily crude steel output in Northwest China increased by 1,000 tons, while Northeast China saw a decrease of 21,000 tons, North China a decrease of 55,000 tons, East China a decrease of 42,000 tons, Southwest China a decrease of 8,000 tons, and Central-South China a decrease of 3,000 tons.
