Mark Latham Commodity Equity Intelligence Service

Wednesday 31st May 2017
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    Macro

    China May factory activity holds up on boost from steel, construction

    China May factory activity holds up on boost from steel, construction

    China's manufacturing and services sectors expanded at a solid pace in May thanks to robust construction and infrastructure investment, welcome news for authorities trying to strike a balance between maintaining stable economic growth and defusing debt risks.

    The official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 51.2 in May, unchanged from April, a monthly survey by the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a reading of 51.0.

    The survey results suggest authorities were having some success in stabilizing the broader economy without risking a sharper slowdown in growth as they try to defuse bubble risks from years of credit-fueled stimulus.

    On the whole, "China's economy is changing into a trend of stabilization from a momentary spike and drop," Zhang Liqun, an analyst with the China Logisticas Information Centre, said in a statement.

    Most analysts agree that momentum in China will slow after strong first quarter growth of 6.9 percent, as Beijing's crackdown on its financial sector is expected to take a toll on corporates' financing costs.

    So far the slowdown has been benign, however, with some key sectors such as construction activity holding up well.

    The statistics bureau said construction remained robust despite slowing a notch from the previous month, as infrastructure investment speeded up, boosting demand for steel.

    Indeed, activity in the steel industry expanded the most in a year in May, supported by higher new orders, a separate industry survey showed, suggesting still-solid demand in construction.

    Growth in the services sector also accelerated to 54.5 as commercial services such as retail and railway transportation expanded on rising demand.

    New orders for China's manufacturers kept pace with April at 52.3, with export orders firming a touch by 0.1 percentage point to 50.7, suggesting external demand held up.

    Production stayed well within expansionary territory, though growth eased to 53.4 compared to last month's 53.8.

    GROWTH RISKS

    The government has set a more modest growth target of around 6.5 percent for 2017, after achieving a slightly higher 6.7 percent target in 2016.

    The crackdown on financial risks, however, is seen pushing borrowing costs up and dragging on growth.

    ANZ analysts estimate the average lending rate has edged up by around 30 basis points in the past few months.

    "We suspect that the current stability of growth will prove temporary," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, a Singapore-based China economist at Capital Economics.

    "With the regulatory crackdown on financial risks still weighing on credit growth, it will be difficult to avoid a further slowdown in the coming months."

    There are also doubts about whether other sectors of the economy will be able to pick up the slack if the property market slows as persistent curbs gradually take the heat out of the market.

    Those worries were inflamed last week when Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's credit ratings for the first time in nearly 30 years, saying it expects the financial strength of the economy will erode in coming years as growth slows and debt continues to rise.

    China's growth impulse is also being challenged by a slowing trend in producer price inflation. Official data showed on Saturday profits earned by Chinese industrial firms slowed to its weakest in four months in April.

    The input price sub-index dropped to 49.5 in May, according to the statistics bureau's May PMI survey, after easing to 51.8 in April, as the tailwind from a commodities boom weakens.

    Output prices also slipped to 47.6 from April's 48.7.

    China's biggest steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel, for instance, cut its main steel product prices for May and June after a long series of increases.

    Property sales growth also slipped in April and a strong rebound in commodity prices appears to have peaked, pointing to a continued slowdown in the industrial sector.

    On whole, however, analysts don't expect economic growth to slow sharply this year, noting the government is keen to maintain stable economic and financial conditions heading into a key political leadership reshuffle later in the year.

    "In the months leading up to the 19th Party Congress in November, stability will remain the top priority for Chinese policymakers," said ANZ's chief China economist Raymond Yeung.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-pmi-factory-official-idUSKBN18R04M
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    Mining service company shares outstrip oil peers


    Companies supplying miners with equipment and services have performed better than their oil sector peers, buoyed by spending on new technology and expectations the demand outlook for other minerals is more bullish than for fuel.

    The index of mining services companies, such as Atlas Copco, Sandvik and Metso, has risen more than 50 percent over the last 12 months.

    In contrast, the oil services index has barely moved as companies such as Saipem, Technip FMC and SBM Offshore grapple with the thinnest order books in 13 years.

    Analysts say the picture is particularly bleak for the European oil services sector.

    "For most of the markets that the European oil services companies serve, it's almost arithmetically impossible for revenue to go up this year," Alex Brooks, equity analyst at Canaccord Genuity, said, referring to a drop in service contracts.

    Any increase is unlikely for now as oil prices hover above $50 a barrel, depressed by oversupply, despite last week's decision led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain output curbs.

    The outlook is fundamentally stronger for miners and their supply companies, although lingering nervousness following the commodity price crash of 2015 means they are unwilling to risk shareholder disapproval by embarking on major new projects.

    Instead, most of the spending is to boost mine output and from the sector's belated recourse to technology to cut costs and improve margins.

    Sandvik said it had seen growth in demand for automation, which so far represents a small part of the mining sector, leaving room for more growth.

    Analysts say any spending in the oil sector, which has already experienced the kind of technical breakthroughs creeping into mining, is focused on maintenance or expanding existing production.

    "If you're an oil guy who lives off building new subsea structures and new pipelines, this is a very worrying trend," Nicholas Green, senior equity analyst at Bernstein, said.

    Longer, as well as shorter term prospects, are brighter for mining service companies that have reported more orders this year.

    Mining executives predict a quicker uptake in electric vehicles than previously expected will lift the sector as a whole as consumption of minerals, such as copper and cobalt grows, while oil demand retreats.

    "Technology is bad for energy consumption and for some metals, it could be very good," Jefferies analyst Chris LaFemina said.

    But concerns about the economic health of China, the biggest commodities consumer, were capping growth across the resources sector, he added.

    The major miners, which led gains on Britain's benchmark FTSE-100 stock index last year, have lost momentum in 2017, while iron ore, the commodity most closely linked to their performance, is slightly weaker than at the start of the year following a 300 percent gain in 2016.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-mining-servicecompanies-idUSKBN18Q0TJ

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    Middle East freight rates for petrochemicals to come under pressure


    Freight rates for petrochemical cargoes loading from Middle East are expected to come under pressure as a result of lacklustre demand for spot tonnage, according to industry sources.

    The current bearish conditions will continue into the third quarter amid a slowdown in the Chinese markets and an increase in the number of tankers available for deployment.

    Ship owners globally will be taking delivery of at least 45 newly built vessels in 2017 from shipyards in northeast Asia. Some of the new vessels will be used for trading in the West while others will be serving the Middle Eastern and Asian region.

    The global chemical fleet grew by 5.2% in 2016 and is expected to expand by 3.3% in 2017. This will continue squeezing rates on major routes over the next two years, according to Hu Qing, lead analyst for chemical shipping at consultancy firm Drewry.

    As part of their expansion program, major shipping companies such as Navig8 and Odjfell SE, are actively placing orders for energy- and cost-efficient new buildings at shipyards in northeast Asia.

    However, demand for spot tonnage will continue softening in the third quarter as northeast Asian supply of key feedstock materials such as benzene, toluene, xylenes, paraxylene (PX) remains ample amid plant expansions and start-ups in 2016-2017.

    China, a key importer for Middle Eastern petrochemical cargoes, has been steadily reducing its reliance on imports due to a combination of economic slowdown, high debt levels and overcapacity for some chemicals.

    Market analysts forecast a decline in Chinese demand growth for key chemicals due to lack of manufacturing and capital investments.

    Currently, chemical volumes moving from the Middle East to northeast Asia have slumped, with most market players expecting the trend to continue into the third quarter because of ongoing turnarounds at major refineries in Japan, South Korea and China.

    Freight rates for chemical tankers in the Middle East market will continue to struggle to find a bottom going into June and July as trading volumes and liquidity traditionally decreases during the holy Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which ends with the Eid ul-Fitr festival.

    Ramadan started on 27 May in Asia and the Middle East.

    On the other hand, some petrochemical tanker owners remain optimistic about prospects for the rest of the year even as the number of new vessels outpaces the increase in tanker demand.

    They expect China’s One Belt, One Road initiative would improve demand for infrastructure material, and increase petrochemical tanker usage.

    (https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2017/05/29/10110611/middle-east-freight-rates-for-petchems-to-come-under-pressure/)

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    ERCOT real-time power prices spike above $1,000/MWh


    The Electric Reliability Council of Texas footprint saw real-time prices jump to four-digit territory Tuesday as power demand rose above forecast levels and reserve capacity was expected to fall below acceptable levels.

    Prices spiked across the footprint as Houston Hub real-time power averaged more than $1,000/MWh for the two-hour period that ended at 2:30 pm CDT (1930 GMT), topping $2,000/MWh for the 15-minute interval ending 2:30 pm CDT, while prices at other hubs averaged about $250/MWh over the same period. Houston Hub on-peak real-time futures price for balance-of-the-day traded in the low $90s/MWh on Intercontinental Exchange, more than double Monday's settlement in the low $40s/MWh as 1,000 MW changed hands.

    ERCOT load was around 53 GW for the hour ending 2 pm CDT, which was nearly flat to a Tuesday forecast, but above a day-ahead forecast calling for a peak near 47.3 GW.

    However, the grid operator posted a notice early Tuesday morning that a reserve capacity shortage was expected for the hours ending 3 pm through 8 pm CDT, asking generators to update their schedules to ensure sufficient generation was available.

    "Because our forecast showed tight conditions over peak hours, in spite of the fact that sufficient generation was available, the notice provided a signal to the market that more generation was needed for today's peak than was scheduled at that time. Currently, additional generation has been scheduled, and we do not anticipate reliability problems," ERCOT spokeswoman Robbie Searcy said in an email Tuesday afternoon.

    High temperatures in Houston were forecast in the high 80s degree Fahrenheit, compared with Monday highs in the low 80s.

    ERCOT expects the peakload on Tuesday to top 55 GW at 5 pm CDT, compared with a day-ahead forecast of 50 GW.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/electric-power/houston/ercot-real-time-power-prices-spike-above-1000mwh-21877216
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    Even with iron ore prices diving, NASA fast tracks mission to $10,000 quadrillion asteroid


    While many still see space mining as science fiction, the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is fast tracking its planned mission to 16 Psyche — an iron ore and nickel rich asteroid, worth roughly $10,000 quadrillion.

    To put that value into perspective, the targeted celestial body’s estimated value is more than the combined economy of our entire planet, guessed at $78 trillion, multiplied by a thousand.

    NASA's mission to "16 Psyche" may give humans a first ever chance of exploring a world made of iron, not rock or ice.

    You don’t need to be a mathematician or a financial expert to realize that bringing that amount of minerals back to our planet would collapse the Earth’s economy.

    And if you follow the mining sector’s news, then you know the market wouldn’t benefit from yet more iron ore supply.

    Fortunately, NASA is only planning to explore 16 Psyche, not mine it. Al least for now. What the agency has done, however, is to move forward the launch date to 2022 from 2023, Science Alert reports.

    While a year is nothing in terms of space missions, the team behind the project has devised a plan to make the journey to the asteroid more efficient, which slashes four years from the original travel time.

    If the mission to 16 Psyche — one of the most massive asteroids found between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter — is successful, then humans will have a first ever chance of exploring a world made of iron, not rock or ice.

    Geologists believe all asteroids are packed with iron ore, nickel and precious metals at much higher concentrations than those found on Earth, making up a market valued in the trillions of dollars.

    Not only private companies are planning to mine celestial bodies, but governments are increasingly joining the race too. In 2015, ex US President Barack Obama signed a law that grants American citizens rights to own resources mined in space. Shortly after, Luxembourg inked a deal with two US space research companies, in an effort to become a global centre for asteroid mining.

    http://www.mining.com/even-iron-ore-prices-diving-nasa-fast-tracks-mission-10000-quadrillion-asteroid/

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    Oil and Gas

    BREAKING: Qatar to boost LNG export capacity


    State-owned Qatar Petroleum on Wednesday said that it has signed an agreement with Japan’s engineering company Chiyoda to study further boosting its liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity in order to stay as the world’s largest LNG exporter.

    Qatar, the top LNG producer with a capacity of about 77 Mtpa is facing a growing competition from a tide of new LNG sources mostly from Australia and the US.

    Under the new deal, a detailed study will be undertaken to identify the modifications that are required for debottlenecking the capacity of Qatar’s LNG trains, located in Ras Laffan Industrial City, in order to process additional quantities of gas that will be produced from the planned new North Field gas project, QP said in a statement.

    To remind, Qatar Petroleum had announced last month its intention to develop a new gas project in the southern sector of the North Field with a capacity of about 2 billion cubic feet per day for export.

    “As part of its efforts to reinforce Qatar’s leading position in the global gas industry, this agreement provides Qatar Petroleum with the option of increasing its LNG production with minimum investment, by leveraging the existing massive, world-class infrastructure and valuable synergies available in Ras Laffan Industrial City,” said Saad Sherida Al-Kaabi, Qatar Petroleum’s Chief Executive

    “Qatar ranks first in the world in the production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG), the first in the production and export of gas to liquid products (GTL) and the first in the production and export of Helium. Qatar Petroleum is determined to continue its lead position in the gas industry with its expansion plans, both inside and outside the State of Qatar,” Al-Kaabi added.

    The study is expected to be completed before the end of this year, which will allow Qatar Petroleum to kick off the FEED work early next year, if it concludes that this option would achieve the optimum value for Qatar, the company said.

    http://www.lngworldnews.com/breaking-qatar-to-boost-lng-export-capacity/
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    Qatar talks tough on project stakes in Japan LNG contract talks


    Qatar Petroleum is warning Japanese natural gas buyers not to press too hard in long-term supply talks or Japanese companies could be squeezed out of Qatar's LNG projects, sources have told Reuters.

    Qatar faces rising competition from a tide of new LNG from sources including Australia, which is expected to surpass it as the world's top exporter by 2019.

    That has emboldened buyers as they look for lower prices and more control via shorter contracts and the rights to divert or resell unwanted cargoes, for example.

    In Japan, QP, which owns producers Qatargas and Rasgas, counts on customers led by JERA, a joint venture between Tokyo Electric and Chubu Electric.

    In the current contract negotiations with Japan, at stake are annual supplies of 7.2 million tonnes of gas expiring in 2021 worth some $2.8 billion, or 10 percent of QP's output.

    Underscoring the depth of Qatar's ties to Japan, Marubeni Corp and Mitsui & Co each own 7.5 percent stakes in the three-train Qatargas I project.

    Mitsui also holds a 1.5 percent stake in Qatargas 3.

    "If Japan pushes too hard or decides to buy LNG from other buyers like Australia, Qatar has said it could force Japanese companies out of their stakes in Qatargas projects," a Japanese diplomat told Reuters.

    A QP official confirmed supply renewal talks may impact Japanese ownership stakes in Qatar's LNG projects.

    Marubeni and Qatargas did not return requests for comment. JERA declined to comment.

    Losing its foothold in Japan would force QP to seek sales among less creditworthy buyers in Africa, the Middle East and south Asia which are riskier to deal with.

    Its status in Japan is already under threat, with its market share falling 17 percent last year while Australia's jumped by 20 percent, customs data showed.

    One advantage Qatar still possesses is as the lowest cost producer it can undercut on prices.

    "Chubu (Electric) has enough contracted supply from Australia and the United States to manage without Qatari supply if they wanted," a source at a Japanese trading house said.

    TOUGHER TERMS

    Japanese importers value longstanding business ties with Qatar and are unlikely to drop deals altogether, but the utilities are insistent on introducing more buyer-friendly terms, a Japanese trading source said.

    "The flexibility to divert and cancel shipments will be one of the main demands from Japanese buyers who see themselves becoming more like traders in the years ahead," the source said, in particular reference to JERA.

    Reducing volumes, shortening deals from the current 25 years, and aligning pricing formulas with market conditions will also be important, he said.

    Pakistan recently struck a 15-year deal with Italy's Eni, showing how buyers are driving changes to long-term contracts.

    Long-term pricing is closely tied to the price of crude oil, expressed as a percentage of a barrel's worth.

    Pakistan was able to force Eni down to a price of about 11.8 percent, far lower than the 14.2 percent Japan buyers pay Qatar, industry sources said.

    Slashing the premium on Japanese deals could add up to billions of dollars over a contract's lifespan.

    Qatar could also be forced to offer contractual devices like those offered by some producers in Australia which protect buyers from oil price spikes.

    Aside from Australia, Qatar faces an unlikely source of competition for Japanese market share from Nigeria.

    Sources say the world's fourth-biggest LNG producer is courting Japan's city gas companies, power utilities and trading houses as many of its own supply deals with Europe wind down in 2021-2023.

    Up to eight million tonnes of annual LNG output from Nigeria is coming off contract at that time and Japanese buyers are being targeted, according to traders.

    Nigeria has LNG projects that are fully depreciated, allowing them to offer more flexible terms such as diversion rights and shorter contracts, sources said.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-qatar-japan-lng-idUSKBN18Q1W3

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    Iran eyes 5.3 Bcf/d of additional natural gas production from South Pars phases 17-21

    Iran eyes 5.3 Bcf/d of additional natural gas production from South Pars phases 17-21

    South Pars development phases 17-21 will add more than 150 million cubic meters/d (5.3 Bcf/d) of new gas production from the giant Iranian offshore
    field when they achieve full operating capacity, oil ministry news agency Shana reported Saturday quoting the CEO of National Iranian Oil Company, Ali
    Kardor.

    "We are now witnessing their completion and operation," Kardor said, referring to the five phases inaugurated in April, according to a transcript
    Shana published of an interview by Iran Petroleum.

    In a separate Shana report, Iran Petroleum put South Pars' current gas output at 540 million cu m/d, up from 280 million cu m/d in 2013, when Hassan
    Rouhani first became president.

    Development of the field started 15 years ago and has accelerated under Rouhani's administration, Iran Petroleum reported.

    To date, eight new South Pars phases have been brought on stream by the Rouhani administration. Rouhani was elected May 19 to his second term in
    office. Project phases 12, 15 and 16 were completed earlier.

    Iran's petroleum ministry has assigned top priority to the development of South Pars, which has gas reserves estimated at about 500 Tcf, not only
    because of the Persian Gulf field's huge size but also because it extends across Iran's maritime border with Qatar.

    Qatar calls its side of the gas deposit North Field and estimates the gas reserves at roughly 900 Tcf.

    "After the new administration took office, crude oil prices had fallen, we were under sanctions and our oil export rate had declined. Therefore,
    NIOC's financial resources had declined sharply and we could not develop all phases together," Kardor said. "Had we done so, none of these phases would
    have reached production."

    Financial resources were allocated first to projects that had progressed the furthest so that they could be brought into production faster, he added.

    Financing remained a serious obstacle to development, Kardor said. With sanctions still in place, about $3 billion in financial guarantees were
    extended to contractors by the National Development Fund of Iran to enable South Pars development work to proceed, he added.

    Total development costs for phases 17-21 was around $18 billion: nearly $7 billion for the combined phases 17 and 18, $5.5 billion for phase 19 and
    $5.3 billion for the combined phases 20 and 21, he said.

    Each new South Pars phase would raise Iran's GDP by 1%, Kardor estimated, adding that incremental South Pars gas supplies would displace liquid fuels,
    allowing the country's oil exports to rise.

    "Any delay in bringing these phases into operation means funneling profits to Qatar's market," he said.

    ESSENTIAL EQUIPMENT RELEASED

    The lifting of nuclear sanctions in January 2016 after Iran signed a nuclear deal with the P5+1 group of international powers, known as the Joint
    Comprehensive Plan of Action, speeded up South Pars development by enabling Iran to import essential equipment that had been impounded in European
    countries and the UAE, Kardor said.

    Now facing the prospect of production declines at some South Pars phases without facilities upgrades, Kardor said compressors and pressure-booster
    platforms were being installed to avert a pressure decline that would hurt output.

    "These platforms weigh 19,000 to 20,000 mt. Iranian companies can build platforms weighing up to 7,000 mt and the contractors' yards do not have the
    equipment to build pressure-booster platforms. Therefore, we have to apply
    special equipment and technology which Iranian companies lack," he said, explaining the need for foreign input. Eventually, as Iranian contractors
    worked alongside international partners and gained more experience, the construction know-how would be transferred to Iran, he said.

    NEEDS FOREIGN INVESTMENT

    Long-term reliance on the National Development Fund of Iran for finance would be unfeasible, Kardor said.

    "Mere reliance on the NDFI resources is not a long-term and defendable approach. These resources will help the development of jointly owned fields
    until the way is cleared for attracting foreign investment," he added.

    "NIOC is making efforts to apply a variety of investment attraction methods in order to reduce dependence on domestic financial resources. This
    company is facing numerous financial bottlenecks. In order to deal with development projects under such circumstances we need to develop skills to
    attract foreign investment and apply creative methods," he said.

    Kardor described NIOC's recent Eur550 million ($615 million) deal to buy corrosion resistant steel tubing from Spanish manufacturer Tubacex as one that
    would both assist further development and maintenance efforts at South Pars, where the pipes are extensively used, and facilitate technology transfer to
    Iran.

    "NIOC is serious pursuing the transfer of technology for building this tubing in the country," he added.

    On the development of Iran's offshore North Pars gas field, Kardor said it was a project for future development as the field lay entirely within
    Iran's territorial waters. However, North Pars gas could be used to make up for any production shortfalls in the event of a fall-off in reservoir
    pressure, he added.

    "If not, we can use the North Pars gas for LNG and exports," Kardor said.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/dubai/iran-eyes-53-bcfd-of-additional-natural-gas-production-26745283
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    Russia's Putin meets influential Saudi prince in Moscow


    Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russian President Vladimir Putin, who together have worked to cut oil production, are to meet in Moscow late on Tuesday.

    The two were instrumental in a successful global deal which saw oil production curtailed by 1.8 million barrels per day as part of efforts to prop up prices and reduce bloated inventories.

    Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov confirmed at a conference call with reporters their meeting would take place later on Tuesday.

    Last time they met in China in September on the sideline of the G20 summit.

    Al Arabiya TV said they will discuss the Syrian conflict, while four cooperation agreements are expected to be inked between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

    Earlier on Tuesday, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak met his Saudi counterpart Khalid al-Falih and discussed situation on global oil markets.

    The meetings take place following the agreement by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other large global oil producers led by Russia too extend oil output cuts by another 9 months.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-saudi-meeting-idUSKBN18Q0S4

    Powerful Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Russia's President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday that Russia and Saudi Arabia had no contradictions on the oil market.

    Putin told the prince that energy agreements between the two countries had high importance and Moscow and Riyadh developed their relations successfully to stabilize the energy market and the oil prices.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-saudi-arabia-putin-prince-idUSL8N1IW445
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    OPEC/non-OPEC deal unlikely to alter crude strategy for Asia


    The deal by OPEC and non-OPEC countries to extend output cuts is unlikely to lead to any fall in crude inflows into Asia from the region's main suppliers, who will ensure they keep their key markets well supplied as they strive to maintain market share and limit the prospect of the region being flooded with arbitrage cargoes.

    Market participants and experts were of the view that the move by OPEC and 11 non-OPEC producers to extend production cuts by nine months -- a move that would keep nearly 1.8 million b/d of crude oil off the market through March 2018 -- would not be big enough to throttle the supply strategy of major exporters and prevent them from meeting the needs of their traditional Asian buyers.

    Takayuki Nogami, chief economist at Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp (Jogmec), said some OPEC producers in the Middle East won't be able to afford to reduce supplies to Asia -- instead they may boost shipments to meet peak demand needs.

    "We may see an increase in supplies, even without an increase in production in the summer," he added.

    Some traders said that it could be a testing moment for OPEC producers to maintain their output cuts as agreed, as they battle for market share in Asia amid the approaching peak demand season.

    OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed in Vienna last Thursday to extend the current oil output cut deal by nine months to the end of March 2018. The original deal calls on OPEC to cut 1.2 million b/d, while the 11 non-OPEC participants committed to 558,000 b/d in cuts, from January through June.

    "The volume cut is not so big. So far we haven't seen any effect from the OPEC cuts in the past six months. The market is generally over-supplied. So even if they extend it by nine months, they may reduce volumes to Asian refiners for at least one month but then gradually increase the volumes again," a North Asian crude trader said. "The cuts will likely be adjusted elsewhere, with little impact on Asian buyers."

    The trader added that if Middle East producers start to cut supplies to their key Asian buyers, they may lose out to the competition. "They will start to get lesser number of customers and lose market share," the trader added.

    As Asia enters its peak refinery turnaround season, traders dismissed the possibility of any big impact on their prompt crude procurements, adding that the effect from the January-June production cut agreement was largely limited.

    APPROACHING SUMMER, WINTER DEMAND

    Traders said they would be keeping a close watch on the extent to which OPEC and non-OPEC producers would adhere to their production cut commitments ahead of the approaching summer and winter demand seasons.

    "The summer season will be the key," a North Asian refiner source said. "It will be a focal point -- whether producers can comply and endure their production cuts."

    Nogami added that some Middle East producers' compliance with production cuts could be tested from as early as June as they may try to meet cargo demand for August-loading programs. If not then, compliance could be seriously strained from around October for November loadings, as the winter demand season kicks in.

    Any increase in oil production by OPEC's Middle Eastern producers in the coming months could have an impact on the currently narrow spread between the Dubai and Brent benchmarks in the second half of this year, pushing it back out, Nogami said.

    In addition, the Dubai/WTI spread could also be narrowed by increasing US crude exports to the Pacific and the Atlantic, which may support WTI prices ahead, he added.

    OPEC crude output in April averaged 31.85 million b/d, flat from March, an S&P Global Platts survey found, with the group still showing high compliance with its production cut agreement as increases in Angola and Nigeria were offset by declines from Libya and Iraq.

    DIVERSIFICATION DRIVE

    In the wake of the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut deal, Asian refiners have begun to diversify their crude slates, following the narrowing of the Dubai crude benchmark's spreads against WTI and Brent prices.

    The Brent/Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps, a key indicator of ICE Brent's premium to benchmark cash Dubai, has been narrowing sharply this year as OPEC cuts tightened supplies of Middle Eastern medium, heavy sour grades, thereby raising their values against light sweet crudes in Northern Europe.

    "Regionally, the market has already priced in the narrowing EFS for quite some time and is adapting to this scenario," an Asian sweet crude trader said. "The bigger question is which grades will now face more pressure than others. Most likely, the light crudes will come under pressure the most."

    The second-month EFS has averaged 86 cents/b in the second quarter to date, down from $1.49/b in Q1. This is down from an average of $2.31/b in Q4 last year and significantly lower than the $3.10/b average in Q1 and $3.54/b average in Q2.

    "Asian buyers have diversified their timing of purchasing crude. Before, they used to only focus on purchasing Middle Eastern crudes mid-month to end-month [for two months forward]. But now when they are offered arbitrage cargoes, typically CFR cargoes with good economics and the price is cheaper than Middle Eastern crudes. They will consider to take those cargoes and adjust their requirement for Middle East cargoes," said the North Asian crude trader.

    An Asian crude trader said: "We will also be keeping an eye on the WTI/Brent spread, as we could see more US crude coming into the Far East."

    US crude exports slowed in March after hitting a record of exporting more than 1 million b/d in February, as domestic crude price discounts to Brent and Dubai widened significantly.

    The spread between front-month Dubai crude swap continues to command a premium to the same-month WTI swap for most of this year, with the spread averaging at $1.37/b so far in the second quarter and $0.51/b in Q1 against an average discount of $1.62/b in Q4 last year.

    A weaker WTI versus Dubai crude typically makes various North, Central and South American crudes priced against WTI more competitive.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/tokyo/analysis-opecnon-opec-deal-unlikely-to-alter-27838647
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    Russia's Lukoil says Q1 net profit up 45.5 percent, y/y


    First-quarter net income of Russia's No.2 oil producer Lukoil has increased by 45.5 percent to 62.3 billion roubles ($1.10 billion) compared to the same period last year, the company said on Tuesday.

    Analysts, polled by Reuters, expected the January - March net income to rise by 16 percent, year-on-year, to 50 billion roubles.

    First quarter sales rose to 1.43 trillion roubles compared to 1.18 trillion roubles in the first quarter of 2016, while EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) increased to 207.6 billion roubles from 192 billion roubles year-on-year.

    Lukoil is controlled by Vagit Alekperov, the long-standing chief executive, and his deputy, Leonid Fedun.

    http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFR4N1IP01P
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    India's record diesel demand to continue in 2017, growth to slow



    India's diesel demand is expected to rise to record levels again this year as a slew of infrastructure projects boosts use of the transport and industrial fuel, although a government-induced cash shortage will hold growth to its slowest in three years.

    Increased fuel efficiency, a fall in commercial vehicle sales, and the use of other fuels for power generation are also expected to dent demand growth for diesel, analysts and traders told Reuters.

    "The first quarter saw delayed effects of demonetization but I think (diesel demand) should improve as there are a number of projects going on such as road and railways, which should drive diesel demand up," said Tushar Bansal, director of Ivy Global Energy, a Singapore-based consultancy.

    India has budgeted a record $59 billion for 2017/18 for infrastructure such as ports, roads, railways and power.

    The world's third largest oil consumer guzzled 6.955 million tonnes of diesel in April, the highest so far this year and near a record of 6.958 million tonnes hit in May 2016, the latest government data showed.

    Still, a weak first quarter is expected to hold India's diesel demand growth at 1.6 to 3 percent this year, a gain to 1.63 million to 1.65 million barrels a day, analysts from energy consultancies FGE and Wood Mackenzie said.

    This is the slowest annual growth for diesel since 2014, down from a rise of more than 5 percent in 2015 and 2016.

    "The slowdown is a result of the demonetization drive, which dampened economic growth for a few months since its implementation in November last year," said Sri Paravaikkarasu, head of FGE's East of Suez Oil.

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi in November declared notes of 500 rupees and 1,000 rupees illegal tender, taking about 86 percent of total currency out of circulation, in a move that hit sales of cars and motorcycles and small businesses.

    April sales of India's commercial vehicles, which consume mainly diesel, fell 23 percent year-on-year, for instance. Sales of passenger cars and motorcycles, however, mostly powered by gasoline, have started to recover.

    Woodmac expects India's diesel growth to moderate at 3.2 percent a year over 2017 to 2025, down from an average annual growth rate of 3.9 percent from 2010 to 2016.

    "The main reasons for a slowdown lies in increasing fuel efficiency, more substitution (for) oil, primarily diesel, in the power sector and a bearish outlook for diesel cars in India," said Sushant Gupta, research director for Woodmac's Asia-Pacific refining.

    Still India's diesel demand growth in 2017 accounts for one third of Asia's demand growth for the fuel, he said.

    "It is a positive story compared with China, where we expect diesel demand to be in slow decline in 2017."

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-diesel-demand-idUSKBN18Q0RN

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    Groningen minimum required output level lowered in study


    The Dutch government said on Tuesday that a study of the minimum amount of gas that can be produced annually at the Groningen gas field through 2020 while still guaranteeing supply is 21 billion cubic metres (bcm), assuming average temperatures.

    That's slightly below the 21.6 bcm the government has proposed producing for the coming five years beginning October 1.

    The study was carried out by national gas grid transmission operator Gasunie following a request by parliament.

    The Netherlands has been cutting output at the Groningen field, Europe's largest, to reduce the risk of earthquakes caused by production.

    In a letter to parliament, Economic Affairs Minister Henk Kamp said Gasunie and NAM, the Shell/ExxonMobil joint venture that operates the Groningen field, is investigating whether reduction can be further cut at the Loppersum cluster, near to where several relatively strong quakes have occurred.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/groningen-gas-idUSA5N1HS002
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    Energean confirms Israel gas deal


    Following reports on Monday that Greece’s Energean has found buyers for gas from its fields offshore Israel, this has now been officially confirmed.

    In an emailed statement, Energean Oil & Gas has confirmed its subsidiary Energean Israel has signed with Dalia Power Energies and its sister company – Or Power Energies, two agreements for the supply of natural gas from the Karish and Tanin fields, offshore Israel.

    Dalia and Or will purchase part of their gas requirements from Karish-Tanin to operate the Dalia power plant, the largest private power station in Tzafit, south-central Israel, as well as future power plants to be built by Or.

    Energean Israel will supply an overall amount of up to 23 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Karish-Tanin reservoirs over the lifetime of the contracts.

    The period of the supply agreements will start from the date natural gas flows in commercial volumes from Karish-Tanin to the buyers, and conclude at the point when the Purchasers’ generation licenses need to be extended.

    The buyers have agreed to a Take or Pay arrangement for a minimum annual amount of natural gas from Energean Israel, at a price linked to Israeli electricity markets and underpinned by a floor price.

    Energean Oil & Gas Chairman & CEO, Mathios Rigas said: “This is a significant day for the Israeli gas market. These are the first contracts for gas supplies from the Karish and Tanin fields signed with the Dalia group, the largest private power producer in Israel. The agreement is a substantial step towards bringing competition and cheaper energy to the market for the benefit of Israeli consumers and the country’s economy. Energean is in talks regarding further contracts with other potential customers in the market and is aiming to submit a Field Development Plan for the Karish and Tanin project in the next few weeks.”

    Dalia Power Energies Company CEO, Eitan Meir added: “Dalia and Or Energy are working to expand the volume of production offered by them, while continuing to reduce the price of electricity. We are pleased to sign the agreement that expands the gas sources and the ability of the companies to offer their customers electricity at a competitive price. Competition in all segments of the electricity sector will serve the public and the Israeli economy.”

    http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/energean-confirms-israeli-gas-deal/
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    Exxon Squares Off With Shareholders in Annual Climate Showdown

    Exxon Squares Off With Shareholders in Annual Climate Showdown

    This week will be a public trial by fire for new Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Darren Woods.

    Presiding over his first annual meeting since predecessor Rex Tillerson left to become U.S. secretary of state, Woods will be tested Wednesday on everything from climate change to his own paycheck. Analysts and investors will be watching to see if he proves as adept as his mentor in striking a welcoming tone with restive activists while gently disagreeing with just about everything they say.

    So far, Woods has been a stabilizing presence.

    “He represents a continuation of what Mr. Tillerson was doing and so far we’ve seen no strategic shift,” said Brian Youngberg, an analyst at Edward Jones & Co. In St. Louis with a “hold” rating on Exxon’s stock. That’s comforting “for long-term holders who own Exxon for the dividend and not much else.”

    Woods faces a vote on a resolution requiring Exxon to provide a detailed analysis of whether the energy giant can prosper under strict greenhouse-gas limits. Backers of the measure, which are as diverse as the California Public Employees’ Retirement System and the Church of England’s investment fund, are striving to improve upon the 38 percent support a similar proposal received from shareholders last year. Exxon opposes the resolution because it says it already discloses enough data.

    For Exxon, the shareholder-centered event it stages every May in a Dallas symphony hall has become a donnybrook over the environment and corporate governance. Activist groups have shifted in recent years from rowdy bullhorn protests on the sidewalks outside to delivering measured shareholder appeals inside the meeting hall arguing for more prudent financial stewardship.

    Woods, an electrical engineer by training who’s spent his entire career at Exxon, will be confronted by investors demanding that Exxon cut new spending on oil fields and hand the cash over to shareholders in dividends instead. And less than five months after his promotion to the jobs of chairman and chief executive officer, Woods and the board he leads will face rising opposition to his $16.8 million pay package and the way it was calculated.

    Activist shareholders are hitting Exxon, which produces about 2 percent of the world’s crude oil, with a version of the climate change accounting proposal for a second straight year. Despite the company’s steadfast opposition, the measure attracted more investor support than any of the four other environmental proposals put to a vote last year. This year there are almost 90 Exxon investors planning to support the measure, according to data compiled by investor advocacy group Ceres.

    “Exxon’s business is extremely vulnerable to changes in climate regulation and consumer demand,” said New York State Comptroller Thomas P. DiNapoli, a lead sponsor of the climate impact resolution. The company “puts itself and its long-term investors at risk by failing to acknowledge this reality.”

    Disclosures Sufficient

    Exxon says its current disclosures, which include forecasts of how caps on carbon emissions will affect long-term petroleum demand, are sufficient.

    Even with the strictest scenarios envisioned under the 2015 Paris Agreement, global population growth and economic expansion will need vast quantities of oil and natural gas to fuel power plants, vehicles and industrial society, Exxon said in a May 19 letter to shareholders. The Paris accord calls on nations to prevent worldwide temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) from pre-industrial levels by slashing fossil-fuel pollution.

    “The world will continue to require significant quantities of hydrocarbons for which Exxon Mobil is well-situated to compete,” according to the letter. “Substantial upstream oil and gas investment will be required through 2040, even assuming a 2-degree Celsius scenario.”

    Thus far, this annual-meeting season has been bruising for oil producers seeking to beat back activists on the climate and compensation fronts.

    Occidental Surprise

    A majority of investors in Occidental Petroleum Corp. broke with company leaders and approved a climate impact proposal on May 12 that was almost-identical to the Exxon resolution. Calpers, representing California stateretirees, and other backers persuaded fellow investors to validate the resolution by a 58 percent margin, compared to a 40 percent "yes" vote in 2016.

    Such shareholder votes are advisory, and aren’t binding on the company.

    In a significant change, the proposal was supported by Occidental’s largest shareholder, BlackRock Inc. The $5.4 trillion asset manager voted in favor of a climate-change resolution for the first time ever after Occidental exhibited a "lack of response" on the issue after last year’s vote, BlackRock said in a statement on its website.

    Occidental’s result was historic because it was the first time a proposal of this type succeeded despite company opposition, according to Gregory Elders, a Bloomberg Intelligence analyst.

    BlackRock hasn’t yet made a decision on its Exxon vote, Zach Oleksiuk, head of Americas for BlackRock Investment Stewardship, said in an email Thursday. Vanguard Group is considering voting for the proposal, Glenn Booraem, the firm’s investment stewardship officer, said in an email Thursday.

    Executive Pay

    At ConocoPhillips, the world’s largest independent crude explorer, a majority of shareholders rejected CEO Ryan Lance’s pay package, even after his total 2016 compensation was cut almost 10 percent to $19.2 million. It was the first time Conoco investors said ‘no’ on executive pay.

    Sixty-eight percent of shareholders participating in the Houston-based company’s annual meeting either abstained or voted against the executive pay resolution.

    Exxon holders have been urged to follow the lead of Conoco investors and turn thumbs down on executive pay. Proxy adviser Institutional Shareholder Services Inc. cited a mismatch between pay and performance as reasons to vote against the package. Exxon’s long-standing compensation system has remained unchanged even as “investors’ expectations around executive compensation” have evolved, ISS wrote in a May 18 report to clients.

    “Our compensation program ensures that executives focus on the long-term performance of the business and is aligned with shareholder interests,” Scott Silvestri, an Exxon spokesman, said in a May 19 email. “Exxon continues to demonstrate strong business performance relative to industry peers.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-30/exxon-squares-off-with-shareholders-in-annual-climate-showdown
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    Brazil court orders Petrobras to supply natural gas to Eletrobras


    A Brazilian court ordered state-controlled oil firm Petróleo Brasileiro SA to sell natural gas to Centrais Elétricas Brasileiras SA despite the power utility's billionaire debt with the oil company.

    Eletrobras, as the state-controlled utility is known, plans to use the gas to begin testing a thermal power station under construction in the Amazon region that is scheduled to start operating in June.

    Reuters had reported on Feb. 22 that Petrobras had refused to supply natural gas to test the so-called Mauá 3 plant because Eletrobras and some of its subsidiaries did not pay several billion reais for fuel supplies.

    The 590-megawatt Mauá 3 thermal plant is close to completion, but is at risk of not getting the gas to run on.

    Petrobras will now be forced to sell enough natural gas to allow the testing to take place, the oil firm said in a statement to Reuters, but not the amount needed for the plant to fully operate.

    In its first-quarter financial statements, Petrobras said Eletrobras owed Petrobras 9.8 billion reais ($3 billion), of which 8.2 billion reais stemmed from the power firm's subsidiary in the Amazon region.

    A media representative for the subsidiary Eletrobras Amazonas Energia said the parties were in talks and that it would comment on the court dispute "in a timely manner."

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-petrobras-eletrobras-idUSKBN18Q2A9
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    Iraq Approves $5B Oil Refinery Project In Kurdistan’s Kirkuk


    Iraq’s oil ministry has authorized the construction of a refinery in Kirkuk in the semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan that would cost US$5 billion, Kurdish media network Rudaw reported on Monday, citing an Iraqi lawmaker from Kirkuk.

    “The Iraqi oil ministry has given the go-ahead for a modern refinery to be built which will cost $5 billion,” Rebwar Taha from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) party told Rudaw. The project will be carried out in phases and could take between 3 and 5 years to complete, Taha noted.

    The existing refinery in Kirkuk is 65 years old and refines just 30,000 bpd—a capacity that cannot meet demand in Kirkuk, the lawmaker said.

    “This is why we have asked for the refinery’s production rate to be increased to 70,000 barrels a day so that oil from Kirkuk is no longer taken elsewhere under the pretext of refining it,” Rudaw quoted Taha as saying.

    The region of Kurdistan in northern Iraq is estimated to have 45 billion barrels of oil reserves. Exports from the fields in northern Iraq held by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) stand at around 600,000 bpd.

    A spokesman for Iraq’s oil ministry, Asim Jihad, told Rudaw that the oil ministry had given its consent for a new refinery to be built in Kirkuk.

    At the beginning of March, production from the Kirkuk fields was disrupted after Kurdish protestors seized a pumping station in order to protest the policies of Baghdad and Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish area. The protest was allegedly inspired by Kurdish demands that Baghdad authorize the construction of a refinery in Kirkuk, and they shut down the line shipping oil to Turkey.

    A few days later, PUK agreed with Iraq’s central government to keep oil from the Kirkuk oilfields flowing via the pipeline to the Turkish export terminal Ceyhan on the Mediterranean. The deal was reportedly reached after Baghdad agreed to boost the capacity of the Kirkuk oil refinery, and thus PUK withdrew its threat to shut the pipeline to Ceyhan.

    http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Iraq-Approves-5B-Oil-Refinery-Project-In-Kurdistans-Kirkuk.html
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    Ensco set to buy Atwood Oceanics


    UK offshore driller Ensco is set to acquire its U.S. rival Atwood Oceanics, expanding its fleet with high end rigs, and becoming the world’s largest jack-up operator.

    The two companies have entered into a definitive merger agreement under which Ensco will acquire Atwood in an all-stock transaction. The definitive merger agreement was unanimously approved by each company’s board of directors.

    Under the agreed merger, Atwood shareholders will receive 1.60 shares of Ensco for each share of Atwood common stock for a total value of $10.72 per Atwood share based on Ensco’s closing share price of $6.70 on 26 May 2017. This represents a premium of approximately 33% to Atwood’s closing price on the same date.

    Upon close of the transaction, Ensco and Atwood shareholders will own approximately 69% and 31%, respectively, of the outstanding shares of Ensco plc.

    As for the fleet, once the transaction has been completed, Ensco’s fleet will be expanded by six ultra-deepwater floaters, and five high-specification jack-ups.

    The combined company will have a fleet of 63 rigs, comprised of ultra-deepwater drillships, deep- and mid-water semi-submersibles and shallow-water jack-ups.

    The expanded fleet will have 37 jack-up rigs, including 27 premium units, which Ensco says will make it the largest jack-up operator in the world.

    Ensco Chief Executive Officer Carl Trowell said, “The combination of Ensco and Atwood will strengthen our position as the leader in offshore drilling across a wide range of water depths around the world – creating a broad platform that we can build upon in the future.

    Trowell said the acquisition significantly enhanced the company’s high-specification floater and jack-up fleets, adding technologically advanced drillships and semi-submersibles, and refreshing “our premium jack-up fleet to best position ourselves for the market recovery.”

    The estimated enterprise value of the combined company is $6.9 billion, based on the closing price of each company’s shares on 26 May 2017. For comparison, Transocean, the world’s largest offshore driller, has an enterprise value of around $9 billion, according to data provided by Ycharts.

    The merger transaction, subject to shareholders’ approvals of both companies, is expected to close in the third quarter 2017.  The combined company will have approximately $3.7 billion in revenue backlog.

    An interesting fact: Almost exactly six years ago, on May 31, 2011, Ensco completed acquisition of Pride, making it the world’s second largest offshore drilling company at the time.

    http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/breaking-ensco-set-to-buy-atwood-oceanics/
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    Eni to reach Coral FLNG FID this week


    Italian energy giant and LNG player Eni will reach the final investment decision on the development of the Coral gas discovery in the Rovuma Basin, offshore Mozambique.

    The company will reach the decision by the end of this week, Reuters reports, citing a company’s spokeswoman.

    The project involves the construction of 6 subsea wells connected to a floating LNG production facility, with a liquefaction capacity of over 3.3 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year, equivalent to approximately 5 billion cubic meters.

    In February last year, Mozambique government approved the development of the gas field discovered in 2012. Located within Area 4, the field contains about 450 billion cubic meters (16 TCF) of gas in place.

    In October, Eni and its Area 4 partners signed an agreement with BP for the sale of the entire volumes of LNG produced by the FNLG Coral South, for a period of over twenty years.

    Eni is the operator of Area 4 with a 50 percent indirect interest owned through Eni East Africa, which holds a 70 percent stake in Area 4.

    The other concessionaires are Galp Energia, Kogas and Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (ENH), each owning a 10 percent stake. CNPC owns a 20 percent indirect interest in Area 4 through Eni East Africa.

    http://www.lngworldnews.com/report-eni-to-reach-coral-flng-fid-this-week/

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    Kinder Morgan Canada falls in trading debut on concerns over Trans Mountain project


    Kinder Morgan Canada (TSX:KML) kicked off its first day of trading on the wrong foot with the stock falling as much as 7% early in the day after a Monday deal between two political parties in British Columbia that oppose the company’s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

    The company’s shares had been priced at between Cdn$19 and Cdn$21 last week, and then scaled back to Cdn$17, but were trading at $15.79 Tuesday morning before recovering to about Cdn$16.20 by 12:30 pm ET.

    Construction of the $7.4bn project is scheduled to begin in September and should be completed by December 2019.

    The value drop can be explained by rising uncertainty about the future of the Trans Mountain expansion, following an agreement between anti-pipeline Greens and NDP to form a minority NDP government in B.C.

    Both parties have repeatedly voiced their opposition to Kinder Morgan’s planned pipeline expansion, which would see capacity nearly triple to 890,000 barrels of oil per day from the current 300,000 barrels.

    Delays of any kind would be negative for Kinder Morgan, but might provide a boost for rival Enbridge Inc.’s mainline system, according to analyst David Galison, from Canaccord Genuity.

    “Based on the current production forecasts there may not be enough demand for both the Trans Mountain expansion project and” TransCanada’s Keystone XL project, he wrote in a note to clients. “New capacity has the potential to put pressure on Enbridge’s mainline system, which is the largest exporter of crude out of Canada.”

    Alberta Premier Rachel Notley issued a statement saying the provincial government remains "steadfastly committed" to using all means at its disposal to seeing the project through to completion.

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also reiterated his federal Liberal party still supports the expansion project.

    The expansion of the pipeline, which will carry oil from Alberta's oil sands to B.C. to be exported to global markets, was approved by Trudeau in November. The green light, however, came with a series of both federal and provincial conditions attached.

    Construction of the $7.4 billion project is scheduled to begin in September and, according to the company, it should be completed by December 2019.

    http://www.mining.com/kinder-morgan-canada-falls-trading-debut-concerns-trans-mountain-project/
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    Alternative Energy

    German solar PV production peaks at 42% of demand


    Having kicked off the month of May with a day of record renewable energy generation, Germany looks to be winding it up with a new first, with the nation’s solar PV production averaging at greater than 30GW for an hour on Sunday May 28, amounting to 42 per cent of total production (71.41GW) at that time.

    As the Tweet and chart from Navigant Energy’s Kees van der Leun show, solar PV, along with wind, hyrdo and biomass, renewables combined to provide a total of 46.44GW, or roughly 65 per cent of total demand at that time, while fossil fuels/nuclear were reduced to around one-third of generation.

    Today, in early afternoon, German solar PV production averaged >30 GW for an hour; first time ever! 42% of total production at that time. pic.twitter.com/SHqoEKKnjG

    And while this is not quite as impressive as the April 30 record – when wind and solar along with biomass and hydro produced a level of 85 per cent renewable energy generation, almost completely sidelining hard coal plants – it marks a new first for solar PV in Germany.

    It should be noted that both records were achieved on a Sunday, at times of lower overall demand, but as Patrick Graichen of Agora Energiewende Initiative said of the April 30/May 01 record, days like these are expected to be “completely normal” by 2030, as the federal government’s Energiewende (energy transition) initiative continues to add value to the wealth of resources invested in it.

    http://snip.ly/et1nt#http://reneweconomy.com.au/graph-of-the-day-german-solar-pv-production-peaks-at-42-of-demand-81415/
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    European solar additions set to rebound amid widening forecast range: SPE


    European solar additions are forecast to rebound sharply after falling to a seven-year low in 2016, with European solar association SPE forecasting some 9 GW of new additions in its mid-range scenario for 2017 amid a widening range in its forecasts through to 2021.

    Solar Power Europe's annual five-year outlook published Tuesday at the Intersolar trade fair forecasts capacity additions in a range of 5.8 GW to 12.4 GW for this year, with the annual forecast range widening to between 8.1 GW and 27.3 GW by 2021.

    Solar additions across Europe plunged 22% on year in 2016 to just 6.7 GW, the lowest annual growth since 2009, it said.

    Europe's cumulative solar PV capacity could nearly double to 202.9 GW by the end of 2021 from 104.3 GW installed by 2016, with the mid-range scenario forecast pegged at 167.2 GW, averaging over 12 GW of additions each year.

    Its low scenario forecasts just 33.6 GW of new additions over the next five years, with an annual average of just 6.7 GW taking capacity to 137.9 GW by 2021.

    In Europe, the political support prospects for solar are not as bright as elsewhere for the coming years, SPE said.

    The solar "weather outlook" for European countries remains still mostly cloudy but shows increasingly sunny areas and just one rainy spot, the Brussels-based lobby group said, adding that the UK is the only European country expected to add less new solar power year on year until 2019.

    Only two European markets are forecast to remain in the global top ten over the next five years. Germany will be the largest European market, adding as much as 12.5 GW of cumulative growth to 2021 (up from 8.7 GW in last year's forecast), with France potentially adding more than 8 GW (up from 6.3 GW in last year's forecast), it said.

    GLOBAL SOLAR BOOM

    Globally, 2016 was another record year with global annual solar additions growing by 50% to 76.6 GW, it said.

    Total worldwide grid-connected solar power generation capacity was pegged at 306.5 GW by end-2016 and is forecast to double to more than 600 GW by 2020, it said.

    "After the 300 MW milestone was reached in 2016, we expect the total global installed PV capacity to exceed 400 GW in 2018, 500 GW in 2019, 600 GW in 2020 and 700 GW in 2021," SPE said in its annual five-year outlook. However, as in Europe the global forecast ranges are also widening with the 2021 total installed capacity forecast ranging between a high scenario forecast of 936 GW and a 623 GW low scenario forecast, it said. China, India, the US and Japan are the key markets globally.

    The report highlights the rapidly decreasing cost of solar, which continues to improve its competitiveness and is the major driver for solar's global success story.

    "All solar tenders awarded since 2016 are lower than the price guarantee the UK government signed for the Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant last year," it said.

    A new world-record low 25-year solar power supply contract was awarded in Abu Dhabi in 2016 for $24.4/MWh (2.4 cents/kWh), it said, adding that this is reflected in 2017's report being more optimistic on solar growth than previous editions.

    "If policy makers get things right by addressing the needs for a smooth energy transition, such as through establishing the right trade policy, electricity market design and renewable energy frameworks, solar demand could increase much faster," said Michael Schmela, executive adviser at SolarPower Europe and lead author of the Global Market Outlook.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/electric-power/london/european-solar-additions-set-to-rebound-amid-26745286
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    Queensland may change solar tariffs to match peak demand


    The Queensland government has asked the state’s Competition Authority to report on the potential benefits of introducing of time-of-use solar tariffs in the state over the next year, marking the latest move by the nation’s state governments to offer consumers a fairer price for their rooftop solar generation.

    In a letter to QCA chair Roy Green, Queensland energy minister Mark Bailey asks the Authority to calculate spot wholesale electricity pool price values for different possible peak and off-peak combinations,  over the course of a day.

    The data will then be used to compare peak and off-peak values, weighing up any potential cost savings to consumers, as well as to network owners – in this case, the Queensland government.

    Bailey says he expects the Authority to “illustrate the impacts and outcomes of different peak and off-peak periods,” to inform rooftop solar consumer understanding.

    “This must include presenting each of the potential peak and off-peak periods against a typical solar generation profile for a relevant location covered by the Ergon Energy network to allow solar customers to understand the timing of solar generation compared to the possible peak and off-peak periods,” the letter says.

    Queensland currently has a feed in tariff of 6c-8c/kWh – which is voluntary in south east Queensland but ,andatory 6-8¢/kWh in regional areas where Ergon operates.

    However, Queensland’s wholesale electricity prices have averaged more than 10c/kWh for the 2016/17 year, suggesting that solar households are being sold short, and average tariffs at afternoon peaks have been significantly higher.

    The QCA is also expected to undertake public consultation on the timing of peak and off-peak periods, and report to government which times are preferred by consumers.

    The move by the Palaszczuk government follows recent tariff changes in Victoria, where a premium for solar – because it produces during the day – was added to the existing feed-in tariff, along with avoided loss factors on transmission lines, and avoided costs of carbon, taking the tariff to a minimum 11.3c/kWh, up from a previous 5c/kWh.

    As we reported at the time, the increase announced by the Essential Services Commission in February, was the result of a big rise in wholesale prices, and the Victoria Labor government’s instruction to include an implicit carbon price, network benefits and environmental benefits into the tariff.

    The ESC has also been asked to set varying tariffs, depending on the network benefit for local grids. But it says it has set a flat rate for the first year to “allow sufficient time for consultation with energy retailers on the implementation of multi-rate feed-in tariffs in future years.”

    A draft report from the Queensland Competition Authority is expected to be published by 9 June 2017, after which time the QCA will undertake public consultation on the timing of the peak and off-peak periods examined in the report.  

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/queensland-may-change-solar-tariffs-match-peak-demand-83509/
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    Base Metals

    Antofagasta sells solar park stake in Chile, calls for power auction

    Antofagasta sells solar park stake in Chile, calls for power auction

    Chilean mining company Antofagasta Minerals has sold its minority stake in a solar park in northern Chile, and will launch a power auction for one of its copper mines, the company said on Tuesday.

    The firm said in a statement it had agreed to sell its 40 percent stake in the 69.5-megawatt Javiera solar park in north-central Chile to Atlas Renewable Energy, a Latin America-focused solar platform launched in March by English private equity fund Actis.

    Antofagasta participated in the park through EnergiaAndina, a joint venture with Australia's Origin Energy. Javiera was originally constructed by now-bankrupt SunEdison, and is now 100 percent owned by Atlas.

    "Atlas is pleased to conclude another important acquisition to grow its footprint in Chile, with long-term contracted projects with high quality offtakers," the company's chief executive, Carlos Barrera, wrote in an email. "We're looking forward to explore further growth opportunities in the region."

    Antofagasta did not disclose a price for the sale but said that as part of the transaction, it had renegotiated the prices of the energy produced by the park.

    Javiera signed an agreement in 2014 to provide power at a fixed price to Antofagasta's Los Pelambres copper mine. Power prices in the area have since dropped precipitously, meaning the terms of energy contracts inked by large mines in previous years are now largely unfavorable.

    "This decision takes place in the context of Antofagasta Minerals reducing costs and focusing on the business that we best know: copper production," Antofagasta CEO Ivan Arriagada said in a statement.

    Antofagasta also said it would launch a request for tenders in the coming days to provide energy to its Zaldivar mine in Chile starting in 2020.

    The auction is likely to draw interest from an array of domestic and international energy companies that have flooded into the South American nation in recent years.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-antofagasta-actis-idUSKBN18Q2H1
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    Japan's Q3 aluminium premium offers at $123-$128/mt, CIF, down from Q2


    Three aluminum producers have offered to Japanese aluminium buyers premiums of $123-$128/mt plus London Metal Exchange cash CIF Japan for third-quarter shipments, down from $128/mt CIF for Q2, market sources said Tuesday.

    Rusal offered $128/mt plus LME cash CIF Japan, Rio Tinto Japan $123/mt plus LME cash CIF Japan, and a third global producer at $125/mt plus LME cash CIF Japan.

    A fourth producer has held meetings with buyers but he has not placed his offer yet, a Japanese buyer said.

    Q2 premiums rose 35% from Q1 on the rise in US premiums, and the Q3 premiums, in theory, should track the US premiums lower, a Japanese buyer said.

    The Platts Midwest Transaction premium fell by 8.6% to 9 cents/lb delivered from 9.85 cents/lb on April 3.

    The lowest offer of $123/mt plus LME cash CIF Japan, down 4% from Q2, is not low enough, the buyer added.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/tokyo/japans-q3-aluminum-premium-offers-at-123-128mt-27838324
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    Savannah earns 20% stake in Rio Tinto’s Mutamba project


    A recently completed scoping study at the Mutamba heavy minerals mine, in Mozambique, has shown that the mine is capable of sustaining a 30-year mine life, based on a resource of 451-million tonnes at 6% total heavy minerals with relatively modest capital requirements.

    Being developed in conjunction with Rio Tinto, Savannah Resources has the right to earn up to a 51% interest in the project, subject to key milestones being met, and by delivering the scoping study, Savannah has earned a 20% interest.

    Savannah CEO David Archer said the scoping study outlined the potential for a long-life, robust project at a time of increasing demand for titanium feedstocks and strong price growth.

    “Mutamba is a tier-one deposit that is well placed to provide a long-term, reliable supply of ilmenite, zircon and rutile,” he noted, adding that the project was projected to have a pre-tax net present value of $244-million and a four-year payback period.

    First production is being targeted for 2020, with average production of 456 000 t/y of ilmenite and 118 000 t/y of nonmagnetic concentrate.

    The mine is expected to need preproduction capital expenditure (capex) of $152-million, plus $74-million of contingency, engineering, procurement, constructionmanagement and spares, with identified opportunities that may reduce capex by about 35%.
     
    “Our conceptual mine plan is based on well known, long established mining and processing techniques and is enhanced by the very complementary infrastructure setting, comprising local roads, power, telecommunications, an international airport and the nearby Port of Inhambane.

    “Mutamba could be a major industrial development for the region and, with an anticipated final labour complement of 332 people and over 1 000 indirect jobs expected to be created, we are targeting 95% local participation once the operations become established.  The project could also provide strong capital flows into Mozambique and will be an additional element in the country’s growing levels of foreign direct investment,” said Archer.

    Savannah can now earn a further 15% stake in the project by completing a prefeasibility study.

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/savannah-earns-20-stake-in-rio-tintos-mutamba-project-2017-05-30
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    Steel, Iron Ore and Coal

    Glut, Chinese gamblers fuel iron ore's biggest rout in a year

    Glut, Chinese gamblers fuel iron ore's biggest rout in a year

    A stubborn glut and selling by Chinese speculators have slashed iron ore prices this year, with traders and industry officials predicting further declines as memories fade of the steelmaking commodity's stunning recovery in 2016.

    Prolonged price weakness would make business tougher again for top miners like Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP, whose earnings were roiled as iron ore markets tumbled 70 percent in the three years through 2015.

    Weaker prices could also hit marginal suppliers such as Iran, potentially forcing that country out of the market again after boosting shipments to top buyer China earlier this year.

    Iron ore prices have plunged nearly 40 percent from this year's peak, trading at just below $60 a ton this week, with stockpiles at Chinese ports swelling to their largest in 13 years.

    In May alone, iron ore has fallen 15 percent, on course for its steepest monthly drop in a year. In 2016, the commodity rallied over 80 percent.

    "Demand is still healthy but there's way too much supply," said a trader at a global trading firm in Singapore that is looking for Chinese buyers for about 1.5 million tonnes of iron ore in coming weeks. He asked not to be identified.

    "If you're an iron ore buyer and you see it's an oversupplied market, and supply will only increase from here, would you have any incentive to buy more today?"

    Imported iron ore at China's ports reached 136.6 million tonnes on May 26, the highest since SteelHome consultancy began tracking the data in 2004. That is enough to build the Eiffel Tower in Paris more than 13,000 times over.

    Global iron ore output is forecast to expand an average of 1 percent annually from this year to 3.3 billion tonnes by 2021, the same average growth during 2012-2016, BMI Research said.

    ARMY OF SPECULATORS

    Declining prices have been amplified by China's army of speculators, the ones behind the wild swings in iron ore futures traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE).

    Dalian futures, launched in October 2013, gave many Chinese investors their first real chance to play in the iron ore futures market, and have largely influenced physical pricing.

    "DCE is the primary driver and it's always been the primary driver. That's not going to change because iron ore is a China market," said Kelly Teoh, broker at Clarksons Platou Futures.

    The volume of iron ore futures traded on the DCE so far in May reached nearly 2.8 billion tonnes, about twice annual global seaborne trade and the largest since April 2016, according to exchange data.

    As the most-traded contract dropped 32 percent from this year's high to mid-May, open interest - or open contracts - grew to 2.45 million lots, the highest since November 2015.

    "There is clear evidence of speculation in China's iron ore and steel futures," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.

    "Speculation always amplifies trends, to the upside and to the downside."

    Australia's Fortescue Metals Group, the world's No. 4 iron ore miner, said it was generating strong margins even at current prices.

    Fortescue CEO Nev Power expects China's steel output to rise "around 5 percent compared to this time last year" with demand backed by the nation's continuing "industrialization and urbanization".

    http://www.reuters.com/article/ironore-china-idUSL4N1ID3VV

    Attached Files
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    Chinese exports have little impact on US steel industry, ministry


    The Ministry of Commerce recently rejected US claims that China is behind the global steel overcapacity, saying its exports have little impact on the US steel industry.

    China understands that the United States is concerned about the closure of US steel companies and the resultant unemployment of blue-collar workers, but the root cause of this wave of global steel overcapacity is shrinking demand due to economic downturn since the global financial crisis, the MOC said in a research report on China-US economic and trade relations.

    China's steel industry is positioned to meet domestic demand, and the Chinese government does not encourage the export of iron and steel products, but has adopted a series of measures to control exports, according to the report.
     
    It said the proportion of China's steel exports within the United States total steel imports is small, citing a year-on-year decrease of 51.5% in the volume of Chinese steel exports to the United States and a 40.1% decline in the value in 2016.

    http://www.sxcoal.com/news/4556684/info/en
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    Steel CEOs say EU carbon reforms threaten jobs, investment


    Steelmakers in Europe have written to EU leaders urging them not to burden the industry with extra carbon emissions costs they say would make them uncompetitive against foreign rivals and raise the risk of job losses and plant closures.

    Draft reforms to the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) post-2020, agreed in outline by the European Parliament in February, aimed to balance greater cuts in greenhouse gases with protection for energy-intensive industries.

    Since then, negotiations between representatives of the European Parliament, governments and the European Commission have made the proposals tougher, the steel industry says.

    Environmentalists say the law should not be watered down.

    The CEOs of 76 steel makers, including Arcelor-Mittal, Germany's Thyssenkrupp and Austria's Voestalpine, say the reforms as they stand would add unmanageable costs and mean pollutants were produced by manufacturers in other regions.

    "You can avoid burdening the sector with high costs that will constrict investment, or that will increase the risk of job losses and plant closures in the EU," the CEOs say in an open letter, dated May 28, to EU heads of state and government.

    Writing before more closed-door talks on Tuesday on the carbon market reforms, the CEOs say the higher costs for emitting carbon dioxide would favor imports.

    "In its current form, the EU ETS favors steel imports from third country competitors that do not have such costs and which have a far higher carbon footprint than steel made in the EU," the letter says.

    It urges EU leaders "to help preserve the sustainability and global competitiveness of the European steel industry."

    The EU ETS is meant to be the prime tool to enforce EU emission cuts in line with the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

    But it has been dogged by a surplus of permits for polluting industries that have depressed prices, while industry leaders have repeatedly objected to reforms to strengthen it.

    For the European steel industry, which has battled global oversupply, the European Union has agreed measures to protect it from dumped imports or those found to be sold at unfairly low prices by nations, such as China.

    China has urged the EU to treat Chinese firms fairly and abide by the World Trade Organization's rules.

    China is developing its own carbon markets to curb emissions, which environmental campaigners say undermines the European steel industry's argument that it helps to protect against more polluting production elsewhere.

    A spokesman for Malta, the nation in charge of steering EU debate until the end of June, said the Maltese presidency was working to ensure constructive talks on Tuesday.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-carbontrading-steel-idUSKBN18P0Q3
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