The economic expansion—already the worst on record since World War II—is weaker than previously thought, according to newly revised data.
From 2012 through 2014, the economy grew at an all-too-familiar rate of 2% annually, according to three years of revised figures the Commerce Department released Thursday. That’s a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from prior estimates. (USA)
The Conference Board of Canada has downgraded its forecast for the Canadian economy.
On Wednesday, the board predicted the economy will grow by 1.6 per cent this year, Canada’s worst showing since 2009. In May, it forecast growth of 1.9 per cent. The Canadian economy grew by 2.4 per cent last year.
The board said the contraction of the Canadian economy in the first quarter of the year, lower oil prices, a near-record trade deficit and uncertainty in global markets have dimmed the growth outlook for Canada.
“There has been much speculation on whether the Canadian economy has dipped into recession,” Matthew Stewart, associate director, national forecast, said in a release. “We expect the numbers to show economic growth tracking close to zero in the second quarter.
“But even if Canada slips into mild recession, we expect it to be small and short-lived, with the economy picking up through the rest of the year.”
Todd Hirsch, chief economist with ATB Financial, said the economic picture has gotten progressively worse over the year both for Canada and Alberta.
“Part of it is energy prices. That’s the Alberta story. These energy prices are in our sort of lower case scenario that we thought we would see by the middle of the year,” he said. “Those haven’t recovered yet. For Canada, it’s really an export story which is a big puzzle.
#3NEW YORK (Standard & Poor’s) July 27, 2015–Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services downgraded 244 issuers worth $1.2 trillion in rated debt and upgraded 125 issuers with $621 billion in rated debt in the second quarter of 2015.
Downgrades eclipsed upgrades around the world as geopolitical and economic risks rose, including Greece’s potential exit from the eurozone (the “Grexit”), a slowdown in economic growth in China, and the credit effect from interest rate normalization on part of the Federal Reserve System in the U.S., according to Standard & Poor’s “Global Corporate And Sovereign Rating Actions And Outlook–Downgrades Surpass Upgrades Around The World As Geopolitical And Economic Risks Increase,” published today on RatingsDirect.
“Downgrades surpassed upgrades across the globe in the second quarter of 2015, with most regions seeing two downgrades for every one upgrade—slightly above historical averages,” said Diane Vazza, head of Standard & Poor’s Global Fixed Income Research Group.
#4* Q2 GDP growth below forecast, lowest since early 2012
* Collapse in exports hits economy
* Government to downgrade full year GDP forecast
* Central bank can't do much -analyst (Adds further analyst comments, context on monetary policy)
In April 2015, Shell announced its recommended combination with BG.
- Enhanced free cash flow - this enhances Shell’s dividend potential in any expected oil price environment.
- An IOC LNG and deep water innovation leader – accelerating and de-risking our current strategy.
- Springboard to change Shell – asset sales and refocused spending would result in a simpler, more focused company, concentrated around three pillars – upstream and downstream engines, deep water and LNG.
Big important slide.
32% IRR at $50 Oil. Very Impressive.
Concho says 70% IRR: same area, $60 assumption here. Note that Concho is shortening its laterals.