The governments of Germany, Belgium and Denmark came together with offshore wind industry captains in signing a Joint Statement to further the deployment of offshore wind energy in Europe.

The industry has been on a steep cost reduction curve and has met its self-imposed target of EUR 100/MWh by 2020 ahead of time. Winning bids of auctions in the Netherlands, Germany and Denmark delivered up to 48% cost reduction compared to projects just two years ago.

Delivering further cost reductions will require the deployment of significant volumes of new offshore wind. But most governments in Europe have still to define clear plans for how much new offshore they intend to deploy, notably beyond 2023.

The industry therefore calls on European governments to collectively ensure there is 60GW, or at least 4GW per year of new deployment in the decade after 2020. Going beyond 4GW per year would enable the industry to become fully competitive with new conventional generation ahead of 2030.

Samuel Leupold, CEO, DONG Energy Wind Power, said: “More than ever, we need countries to coordinate and lay out a clear vision. A visible and steady pipeline of projects between 2020 and 2030 will allow for continued cost reductions, a thriving supply chain and continued European leadership in an increasingly international market for offshore wind. We welcome the joint statement and call on other governments to commit to robust volumes.”

To deliver on these volumes, government and industry signatories committed to build on public-private cooperation to facilitate investments in projects and associated infrastructure. Crucially, they pledged to work towards the necessary European framework supporting Europe’s common renewable energy trajectories in part by calling on the European Commission to mobilise dedicated funding for strategic joint projects for offshore wind energy.

Michael Hannibal, CEO Offshore, Siemens Gamesa Renewable Energy, said: “We will continue with technological innovation, testing and industrialisation to reduce costs going forward. But it’s absolutely necessary to have sufficiently large volumes for offshore wind deployment. We need to build on the Joint Statement and create a strong market for offshore wind in Europe. This will deliver sustainable offshore wind energy to society and allow manufacturers to maintain global technology leadership.”

60 GW, which the industry intends to deploy between 2020 and 2030, represents only a fraction of the potential of offshore wind energy in Europe.

According to a new resource assessment by BVG Associates released today, offshore wind could in theory generate between 2,600 TWh and 6,000 TWh per year at a competitive cost – EUR 65/MWh or below, including grid connection and using the technologies that will have developed by 2030. This economically attractive resource potential would represent between 80% and 180% of the EU’s total electricity demand.

Jens Tommerup, CEO, MHI Vestas Offshore Wind, said: “Quite simply, the future vitality of offshore wind depends on clear and consistent volumes in the market. Visible and reliable deployment targets will unleash investments and competition in the market. And they will drive technological breakthroughs and the continued globalisation of the industry.”

http://www.offshorewind.biz/2017/06/06/offshore-wind-powerhouses-call-for-4gw-a-year-tempo-post-2020/

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from energy sources are expected to hit a 25-year low in 2017 as the power sector burns less carbon-intensive coal and more low-cost natural gas, according to government data released Tuesday.

In 2018, however, carbon dioxide emissions from transportation, power plants, homes and businesses should climb about 2.2 percent, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. That increase would be due to forecasts for a colder winter, higher economic growth and rising gas prices, the EIA said.

The projected 2018 increase in carbon dioxide emissions has nothing to do with U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to pull out of the Paris climate agreement, the agency said. That exit will not take place until Nov. 4, 2020, the day after the next presidential election.

U.S. emissions have been falling for several years, largely because coal consumption is declining as power plants increasingly use gas to generate electricity. Coal lost its title as the primary fuel for power plants to gas in 2016 after holding that crown for a century.

EIA said coal's share of generation would rise to 30.9 percent in 2017 and 31 percent in 2018 from 30.4 percent in 2016. Natural gas will take a 31.4 percent share of power generation in 2017 compared with 33.8 percent in 2016, before rising to 31.9 percent in 2018.

Energy-related carbon dioxide emissions were expected to fall to 5,134 million metric tons in 2017, which would be the lowest since 1992, before rising to 5,248 MMT in 2018, according to EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

The all-time peak of 6,021 MMT was in 2007.

EIA projected U.S. coal consumption would rise to 731 million short tons in 2017 and 743 million tons in 2018. That compares with 730 million tons in 2016, the least since 1982, and an all-time high of 1,128 million tons in 2007.

Gas prices are expected to rise to an average of $3.16 per million British thermal units in 2017 and $3.41 in 2018 from $2.51 in 2016.

EIA said dry gas production in 2017 would rise to 73.30 billion cubic feet per day from 72.29 bcfd in 2016. They said U.S. gas consumption would fall to 73.41 bcfd in 2017 from a record 75.12 bcfd in 2016.

EIA projected both production and consumption would rebound in 2018 to record highs with output hitting 76.57 bcfd and usage reaching 76.24 bcfd.

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-natgas-eia-steo-idUSL1N1J311B

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Investors are increasingly excited about the prospects for much faster growth in the solar power industry in Southeast Asia, which has until now been a backwater for renewable energy.

They say that the region is in a perfect position to benefit from rapidly declining prices in solar panels. It has strong economic growth, relatively high costs of electricity and a shortage from traditional sources, undeveloped infrastructure in more remote areas, plenty of sunshine, and backing for more renewable energy from many of Southeast Asia’s governments.

“Dramatically falling costs for solar energy technologies means businesses and governments are choosing renewable energy not for environmental reasons but for economic ones,” said Roberto De Vido, spokesman for Singapore-based Equis, one of Asia’s biggest green energy-focused investment firms with $2.7 billion in committed capital. “It simply makes good business sense. And that's a trend that's not going to change,"

By the end of last year, Southeast Asia had installed solar capacity of only just over 3 gigawatts (GW), a mere 1 percent of global capacity, according to data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena).

Steve O’Neil, the chief executive of Singapore-based solar panel maker REC, said he expects that to grow by 5 GW of new installations every year between 2017-2020. That’s the equivalent of building five standard fossil-fuel power stations annually.

"People don't realize what is about to happen, when you're in the middle of exponential growth," said REC's O'Neil. "It's transformational.

Some European funds are among those looking at the region.

"The projects on offer in Europe are stagnating, so European investors are looking in that direction with great interest," said Armin Sandhoevel, chief investment officer for Infrastructure Equity at Allianz Global Investors, whose team manages 1.6 billion euros ($1.76 billion) worth of renewable investments.

"In Asia, you'd expect double-digit returns. That's hard to achieve in Europe," he said.

Southeast Asia has a population of more than 600 million and annual power demand growth of 6 percent, which most countries struggle to meet.

Solar power potential is measured by Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI), a measurement of the intensity of the sun. Thailand has a GHI that can produce 1,600 to 2,000 kilowatt-hours of solar power per square meter (kWh/m2), well above the 1,000 to 1,200 kWh/m2 in Europe’s solar leader Germany, according to solar weather and data provider Solargis.

The region is ripe for a boom because solar panel prices have crashed to under 50 cents per watt of electricity today from $70 per watt in 1980 as technology and manufacturing efficiency have improved consistently.

At the same time, Southeast Asian countries have all set ambitious renewable energy targets, ranging from 18 percent of overall energy generation mix in Thailand and Malaysia to 35 percent in the Philippines, up from negligible levels today.

There are, of course, still risks for investors - including currency volatility, the difficulties of making land acquisitions, and usually the lack of any government guarantees, said Sharad Somani, head of Asia/Pacific Power & Utilities at KPMG.

Storing solar power through the night remains a hurdle too, though battery technology is improving rapidly.

VENTURE CAPITAL

Bringing together international investors, panel makers, and potential users is a small but growing group of venture capital firms, mostly based in Singapore.

GA Power is one such firm. Led by German solar business veterans, it focuses entirely on financing and developing solar projects across Southeast Asia.

"There is more money than there are projects. If you can offer professional developed projects, you'll have no issue organizing funding," said Roland Quast, GA Power's managing director, adding that “a solar boom in Southeast Asia is unavoidable” given it is now a competitive power source.

He said an investor can expect around a 12 percent economic internal rate of return on average in the region. The measurement reflects returns after costs for the construction, installation, and operation of a project.

Mid-sized solar projects that can be turned on without having to tap into a larger grid are in favor in the region as governments seek to bring power to an area without having to add expensive infrastructure, Quast said.

KPMG’s Somani, who is an adviser in the renewables sector, said that Equis and other funds are raising capital with U.S. and European institutional investors, including pension funds. Equis declined to provide detail on the sources of its money.

"Today we have unique confluence of all three factors necessary for success of such projects – demand for projects from government/utility side supported by conducive regulatory framework, strong developer and supplier interest and abundance of domestic and international financing availability," Somani said.

KILLER ARGUMENT

At the REC solar panel factory in Singapore, one of Singapore's biggest manufacturing sites, a thousand workers and more than a hundred robots work around the clock, churning out 20 containers full of panels every day, which are immediately sent to overseas customers, increasingly to Southeast Asia.

"We produce 14,000 panels per day, which go into 20 containers, 24/7. We never stop," REC's O'Neil told Reuters during a recent visit to the factory.

Founded in Norway, headquartered in Singapore, and owned by Chinese industrial giant ChemChina, O'Neil says that REC sells globally, but that he expects "Southeast Asia to become a game-changer."

In 2016, REC grew by just 3 percent in Southeast Asia - excluding the huge solar markets of India, China and Australia. This year, it expects 5 percent growth in the region, and then 9 to 10 percent growth annually between 2018 and 2020.

The business is cut-throat. Cheap Chinese production of solar panels has left a trail of collapsed companies in its wake - the bankruptcies of Germany's SolarWorld, once Europe's biggest panel maker, and major U.S. panel maker Suniva are among them.

To survive, REC says it needs to be in a relentless drive to improve productivity, including employing low-wage Malaysian workers and automating as much as possible.

"Our panels are now cheaper than a same-sized window," said O'Neil.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-asia-renewables-analysis-idUSKBN18Y0DU

U.S. solar installations will fall 16 percent this year, according to a forecast released on Thursday, as utilities slow procurement of projects to meet state mandates and residential systems become harder to sell.

Following a banner 2016 driven by expectations that a key federal tax credit would expire at the end of that year, the utility-scale market is expected to drop to 8 gigawatts this year from more than 10 GW last year, according to a report by GTM Research and the Solar Energy Industries Association.

The utility market, which accounts for about half of all solar systems, is expected to resume growth in 2019 as utilities seek to procure projects before the 30 percent federal tax credit for solar projects begins to step down in 2020.

Prices on solar systems dropped further during the first quarter, falling below $1 per watt for the first time, the report said.

Residential solar is expected to rise 2 percent for the year, well below the 19 percent growth it logged last year. California is experiencing a major decline in adoption of home installations that contributed to a 17 percent first-quarter drop in the nationwide market. The state accounted for 35 percent of the total U.S. market during the quarter, its lowest share since GTM began tracking the market in 2010.

Large national installers that make up close to half the market, like Tesla Inc's SolarCity and Vivint Solar Inc , have slowed growth to focus on profitability.

Residential markets in New York, Massachusetts and Maryland also fell during the quarter as installers found it was taking longer to win over customers beyond the early adopters.

The market for non-residential solar, which includes commercial and community solar installations, rose 30 percent in the first quarter thanks in part to a robust community solar market in Minnesota and growth in New York.

GTM would revise its forecasts downward, it warned, if a petition by bankrupt solar manufacturer Suniva to implement a 78-cents-per-watt floor on solar module pricing is approved by the U.S. International Trade Commission. U.S. module prices were around 40 cents a watt in the first quarter.

Suniva filed a rare Section 201 petition with the ITC last month, seeking new duties on imported solar products to combat a global oversupply of panels that has depressed prices. If successful, the petition would put solar system costs at 2015 levels, according to GTM.

http://www.reuters.com/article/usa-solar-report-idUSL1N1J41YI