Mark Latham Commodity Equity Intelligence Service

Friday 5th May 2017
Background Stories on www.commodityintelligence.com

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    Macro

    China's Renewed Drive to Tame Its Debt Pile Starts to Bite

    Image titleChina's Renewed Drive to Tame Its Debt Pile Starts to Bite

    Issuance of WMPs, trust products, NCDs tumbled in April
    Regulators issued flurry of new rules in the past month

    Signs are emerging that the Chinese government’s renewed drive to curb financial leverage is starting to bite.


    The number of wealth-management products issued by Chinese banks slumped 39 percent in April from the previous month, while trust firms distributed 35 percent fewer products, according to data compilers PY Standard and Use Trust. Sales of negotiable certificates of deposit, a popular instrument of interbank lending known as NCDs, tumbled 38 percent from a record, figures compiled by Bloomberg show.

    The system-wide contraction is a result of a flurry of government measures over the past month that included ordering banks to bolster risk controls, stepping up scrutiny of shadow financing and cracking down on malfeasance among senior bureaucrats. While the moves have rocked China’s financial markets, the government is sending a clear signal of its determination to curb the estimated $28 trillion debt pile that poses a risk to economic stability.

    “The government is doing the right thing to carry out the deleveraging efforts now,” said Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. “It seems the growth momentum currently can still absorb the negative impact of deleveraging, and that in turn provides the room for the deleveraging to continue.”

    The Chinese economy has grown for two straight quarters, though a bigger-than-expected drop in the official factory order gauge this week took the shine off a recent run of solid data points. The decline in the purchasing managers index is another indication of the delicate balance the government faces in maintaining growth, while curbing the leverage that helped fuel that expansion.

    Market Rout

    The recent regulatory moves erased more than $300 billion of stock-market value and sent bond yields to the highest level in nearly two years as investors speculated the crackdown will curtail the amount of funds available for investment in financial markets.

    It’s a valid concern: Chinese banks sold 5,989 wealth-management products last month, down from March’s 9,829, which was the highest since at least December 2015, according to PY Standard, a Chengdu-based financial data provider.

    Meanwhile, trust companies raised about 80 billion yuan from selling 543 products in April, compared with the 189 billion yuan raised from 835 products in March, according to Use Trust, which is based in the city of Nanchang.

    Sales of NCDs, which have become increasingly popular among smaller banks as a funding source, tumbled to 1.32 trillion yuan in April from a record 2.2 trillion yuan a month earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

    The impact of the regulatory crackdown has already turned up in bank profits after the measures drove interbank borrowing costs to a two-year high. First-quarter results announced last week showed that net interest margins for some smaller banks contracted, while margins for net lenders on the interbank market expanded.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-05/china-s-renewed-campaign-to-tame-its-debt-pile-starts-to-bite

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    Deja Vu Brexit, Trump ...Le Pen!

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    We're not the only ones pointing at the significance of Blockchain.

    Imagine you’re at an exhibition in the early 1990’s and among all the exotic stands and vendor pitches there’s a small table manned by someone who looks like they’re from the IT dept. Let’s call him Tim. He’s a very amiable chap and he explains something called Hypertext Transfer Protocol to you. He says you can call it HTTP for short.

    It’s a very technical explanation and he can’t really show you a sexy promotional video. It all sounds a bit complicated and you can’t really picture a use for it. There are no decent goody-bags in evidence. Your attention drifts over to the team demonstrating the radio-controlled fragrance balloons at a nearby stand and you don’t think about HTTP again.

    HTTP became the foundation of data communication for the world wide web. I don’t think any of us could have anticipated how fundamental it would become to our way of life in such a comparatively short time, let alone the diversity of services it would enable.

    A Few Players Dominate
    Despite that flourishing of diversity, the network is increasingly dominated by a small number of commercial operators. We use their products and services because, well, they can be hard to avoid. Google, Amazon, Facebook, Apple and a handful of others own the means of digital production, to misquote Karl Marx. Users are reduced to a kind of digital proletariat, watching the big players harvesting their valuable personal data and profiting from it.

    Enter the blockchain. We’re back at that imaginary exhibition but now it’s almost 20 years later - 2009. There are lots of stands demonstrating apps that you can download from a raft of recently created “app stores”. Everybody is very excited about something called Twitter.

    There’s another small table near the fire exit and it’s being manned by someone who looks like they’re from the IT department. Let’s call him Tim. He’s a very amiable chap and he explains something called the blockchain to you.

    It’s a very technical explanation and he can’t really show you a sexy promotional video. It all sounds a bit complicated and you can’t really picture a use for it. There are no decent goody-bags in evidence. Your attention drifts over to the team demonstrating a music streaming service called Spotify and you don’t think about the blockchain again.

    A Decentralising Force
    The blockchain could be a technological development as important as the web. As the ability to control the network is increasingly consolidated in the hands of fewer and fewer parties, blockchains decentralise power. Like Tim at the exhibition, I struggle to provide a simple, non-technical explanation of the blockchain but here I go.

    A blockchain is a single ledger or registry of transactions, copied multiple times and distributed widely across the network. It’s effectively a decentralised database with no single organisation, state or person in control, no middlemen. Consensus on the contents of the database is reached by continual comparison between these database “nodes”; it’s a form of distributed co-operation. The distributed database contains authenticated records of the history of activity on a network.

    The blockchain enables decentralised, programmatic authentication of a database transaction, requiring no intermediary.



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    Glencore raises profit forecast for trading arm


    Mining and commodities trading group Glencore has raised its operating profit forecast for the trading division this year by $100 million and said its mining operations were expected to recover from some weather-related disruption at the start of the year.

    First-quarter production figures were lower for commodities such as copper and zinc than some analysts forecast.

    But they said Glencore's upward revision for its trading division - to between $2.3 billion and $2.6 billion from $2.2 billion to $2.5 billion - suggested that results for the full year would not suffer.

    So far this year the share price performance has been positive, extending gains made in 2016 when it was one of the top performers on the FTSE 100 index .FTSE, while other big miners have pared last year's gains.

    Copper production in the first quarter this year was 3 percent lower than a year ago, following lower grade quality in some mines as well as flooding in Peru and higher than average rainfall in Democratic Republic of Congo.

    Zinc production was up 9 percent, Glencore said, adding there were no plans to restart idled capacity in Australia and Peru.

    Coal production was 4 percent higher than a year ago, reflecting stronger coking coal output compared with a year ago and increases in Glencore's Australian thermal coal operations.

    The world's largest shipper of seaborne coal is expected to benefit from higher coal prices.

    Glencore said Newcastle coal prices were 61 percent higher than the first quarter a year ago.

    In a note BMO, which rates Glencore shares as a "market perform", said catching up to reach full-year production targets was possible as much of the shortfall was weather-related and the increase to trading guidance was positive.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-glencore-outlook-idUSKBN1800NI
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    Glencore maintains steady Q1 production


    Production in the first quarter of the year across several of triple-listed Glencore’s operations worldwide was marred by adverse weather conditions, including Cyclone Debbie in Australia, flooding in Peru and higher-than-average rainfall in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Hunter Valley, in Australia.

    However, the global diversified natural resource company reported steady output for the first three months of the year, with weather-related impacts somewhat offset by planned ramp-ups, drawdowns from stockpiles, improved grades and operating efficiencies, besides others.

    Glencore on Thursday reported that copper production from its own sources declined 3% year-on-year to 324 100 t, reflecting the grade variations at Alumbrera, in Argentina; the zinc/copper mix at Antamina, in Peru, as its mine plan progresses; and weather-related disruptions at Mutanda, in the DRC, and Antamina.

    These were partly offset by a 16% increase in own sourced production from North Queensland.

    The group‘s own-sourced zinc production of 279 200 t during the first quarter represented a 9% rise on the prior corresponding quarter, owing to the mine plan sequencing at Antamina and higher grades at the Kidd mine, in Canada.

    “Modest production increases in the rest of the portfolio were within expected ranges. There are currently no plans to restart idled capacity in Australia and Peru,” Glencorecommented.

    Meanwhile, own-sourced nickel production for the three months under review decreased 10% to 24 900 t owing to maintenance stoppages at Murrin Murrin, in Australia, and Nikkelverk, in Norway, and partially offset by the ramp-up at Koniambo, in New Caledonia.

    Operating efficiencies and the restarting of a furnace in the second half of last year contributed to a 10% year-on-year hike in Glencore’s attributable ferrochrome production for the first quarter of 2017 to 439 000 t.

    Coal production for the first quarter increased 4% year-on-year to 30.9-million tonnes, attributed to stronger coking coal production, the geological challenges experienced in the base period at Oaky Creek, in Australia, and planned ramp-ups in the Australian thermal portfolio.

    However, production was down 6% quarter-on-quarter on the back of adverse weather conditions in Australia and South Africa.

    “Glencore’s oil entitlement interest of 1.4-million barrels was down 43% on the first quarter of 2016, reflecting ongoing depletion. A single-rig drilling campaign will recommence in Chad in the second half of 2017,” the company commented.

    Meanwhile, Glencore hiked its full year 2017 marketing earnings before interest and tax guidance to between $2.3-billion and $2.6-billion, from the previous $2.2-billion to $2.5-billion.

    The company’s 2017 production guidance is 1.3-million tonnes for copper; 1.1-million tonnes for zinc; 300 000 t for lead; 120 000 t for nickel; 1.6-million tonnes for ferrochrome and 135-million tonnes for coal.

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/glencore-maintains-steady-q1-production-2017-05-04
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    Oil and Gas

    Malaysia's clogged oil shipping lanes underscore failure to reduce glut


    Oil industry leaders meeting in Malaysia next week to discuss extending production cuts won't have to look far for evidence the market remains awash in supply.

    Just off the coast, in the Straits of Malacca, dozens of tankers loaded with record amounts of unsold fuel show an OPEC-led agreement to cut production in the first half of 2017 has yet to tighten the market.

    While not on the official agenda at the bi-annual Asia Oil and Gas Conference in Kuala Lumpur from Sunday to Tuesday, the attendance of top oil executives and policy makers including Saudi Arabian energy minister Khalid Al-Falih, ensures the production cut will be a major talking point.

    Crude prices languishing near 2017 lows are also keeping the over-supply issue to the fore.

    At the center of discussions will be whether to extend the almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) reduction of crude output the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and others including Russia agreed to in November last year.

    "Many heads are losing a lot of hair as they keep scratching their head as they see data doesn't square up," said Jorge Montepeque, senior vice president for fuel origination at Italian energy major ENI.

    "On the one hand, you have a lot of pronouncements about cutbacks in production... On the other, you have inventories that continue to build up."

    Shipping data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that some 35 loaded supertankers able to hold around 65 million barrels of oil are currently sitting in Malaysian waters. That's almost 10 more than in mid-April and around half a dozen more than in mid-March.

    In a note this week headlined "Where are the OPEC cuts?", Morgan Stanley said shipping and import data were yet to show a slowdown in oil supplies. OPEC oil arriving in ports around the world had, in fact, risen by around 700,000 bpd since the fourth quarter of 2016, according to the bank.

    But it's not just OPEC oil floating in Malaysian waters.

    Trade data shows fuel has also come in from the United States, Venezuela, Brazil, as well as from Europe.

    MALAYSIA'S KEY ROLE

    Virtually all of the Middle East's and Europe's oil to Asia passes through Malaysia, and its waters are one of the world's most important storage locations.

    What's more, state-owned oil company Petronas is Southeast Asia's biggest single oil producer, sending crude and refined products across the region via a vast pipeline and tanker network.

    When the system isn't clogged, oil simply goes through or out of Malaysia to Asia's big consumers in China, Japan or South Korea.

    But when output exceeds sales, traders store crude from the Middle East, the Americas, and Europe in tankers in Malaysia.

    "Producers are pumping oil faster than it can be sold," said one senior trader involved in bringing European crude to Asia.

    "Many either don't have storage facilities at home, or it is full, so they send it here (to Malaysia), close to the big Asian markets in the hope that they can deliver at a better price later."

    Most of the oil is positioned to meet a potential surge in China's demand as independent refiners are expected to receive a second batch of crude import quotas in June, traders said.

    Still, the bloated market is weighing on prices for Brent crude, the international benchmark for oil prices. At around $50.60 per barrel, prices are now at the same level than they were before the cuts were announced late last year. <0#LCO:>.

    Eikon data shows that crude oil shipments into Malaysia hit a high this year, averaging 700,000 bpd since January, compared with a daily average of 300,000 bpd between 2015 and 2016.

    Add to this Malaysia's own exports, though less than a third of its 650,000 bpd production, and never has more oil been sloshing around in this region.

    Many market participants believe the ongoing oversupply will force OPEC and the other producers that have agreed to cut output to extend the deal beyond June to cover all of 2017.

    A decision is expected during or after OPEC's next official meeting at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, on May 25.

    Traders and analysts say the cartel needs to understand and address what is behind the ongoing glut.

    "OPEC members need to sit down and analyze whether... something is wrong in terms of (global) production," ENI's Montepeque said.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-oil-opec-idUSKBN18107J

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    Iraq loading first crude oil cargo for Egypt under new deal


    Iraq's oil ministry said on Thursday it had started loading a tanker with 2 million barrels of crude oil bound for Egypt, marking the first shipment under a bilateral agreement.

    Under a one-year agreement reached last month between Iraq and Egypt, Iraq will sell 12 million barrels of oil to Egypt, the ministry said.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/iraq-oil-egypt-idUSL8N1I63X3
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    Colombian president announces largest gas find in decades


    Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos and state-controlled oil company Ecopetrol Wednesday announced the country's largest natural gas discovery in 28 years, but stopped short of quantifying the Caribbean deepwater find or declaring it to be a commercially viable.

    The discovery comes as Colombia is experiencing an ongoing decline in domestic gas reserves and output. Earlier this year, the country lost its self sufficiency in gas production and was forced for the first time to import an LNG cargo from Trinidad and Tobago to a new regasification facility in Cartagena in order to meet domestic gas demand.

    At a press conference in Bogota, Santos said the deepwater well Gorgon-1, drilled by Ecopeterol and its 50-50 operator partner Anadarko, had found natural gas at a depth of 2,316 meters. The gas-bearing sand layer was measured at between 260 and 360 feet of natural gas pay.

    "This discovery demonstrates the confidence of foreign investors in Colombia," Santos said. Mining and Energy Minister German Arce said the find was the country's largest since BP's Cusiana gas field in 1989.

    In a release shortly before the president spoke, Ecopetrol said the well represents a continuation of the "geological train" of gas discovered previously in the adjacent Kronos deep water block in 2015 and Purple Angel deep water block in March of this year off Colombia's Caribbean coast. Both blocks are also owned by Ecopetrol and Anadarko.

    Ecopetrol said Anadarko provided the information that the find is of record size for Colombia, but no specific or potential reserve size was mentioned. Earlier this year, Ecopetrol announced it would drill at least two appraisal wells in 2017 to assay the commercial possibilities of the Kronos discovery.

    The Ecopetrol release was somewhat more reserved than the president, saying the Gorgon-1 discovery paired with Kronos and Purple Angel "demonstrate for Ecopetrol the possible extension of a gas field in this zone of the Colombian Caribbean."

    On the condition of anonymity, a source at Ecopetrol said that there is no target date for determining the fields' commercial viability. Bringing the gas onshore would require an investment of billions of dollars and take the better part of a decade, Ecopetrol officials have said.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/bogota/colombian-president-announces-largest-gas-find-21625450

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    Repsol gets lift from cost cutting, higher commodity prices and increased production


    Spanish oil company Repsol more than doubled its net income in the first quarter of 2017 with upstream and downstream improvements as well as a new mega-find in the US.

    Net income of 689 million euros in the quarter was a 59% improvement on the 434 million euros obtained in the same period last year. 

    The strength of the business was also reflected in the company’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization , which reached 1.844 billion euros, 80% greater than in the same period the previous year.

    Repsol said the increase in net income was due to improvements to the “resilience and flexibility” of the company’s activity in the continuing low price environment.

    During the quarter, Brent crude prices averaged 53.7 dollars per barrel.

    Average hydrocarbon production between January and March was 693,400 barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase over the production average reached at the end of 2016 due to contributions from Brazil, Libya and the United Kingdom.

    Upstream increased its income by 207 million euros over the same period of the previous year, to 224 million euros.

    The Downstream area obtained an income of 500 million euros and was described as a “major cash generator” for the company.

    The refining margin indicator in Spain was 7.1 dollars per barrel, consolidating the excellent performance in this area during the last two years.

    Repsol increased its average production mainly due to activity in the United Kingdom, resumed activity in Libya and the startup of the Lapa reservoir in Brazil.

    The Brazil project, which came onstream in December 2016, contributed to the company’s new record for production in that country, set in March of this year.

    In terms of exploration activity, in March, Repsol announced the largest conventional hydrocarbon discovery on U.S. soil in the last 30 years, in the North Slope borough of Alaska.

    It is estimated that the contingent resources of the area where the discovery was made, known as Nanushuk, will total approximately 1.2 billion recoverable barrels of light crude oil.

    Repsol Sinopec Resources UK Limited is a joint venture between Repsol and Addax Petroleum UK Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Petrochemical Corporation (Sinopec Group).

    It arose from the acquisition, in 2015, by Repsol, of the global assets of the former Talisman Energy Inc, including its 51% equity interest in the joint venture, previously called Talisman Sinopec Energy UK.

    https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/138477/repsol-gets-lift-cost-cutting-higher-commodity-prices-increased-production/
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    Analyst: Permian, GoM Are Equally Important Producers


    Despite the perception of weakness in the offshore segment, the U.S. Gulf of Mexico (GoM) matches the Permian Basin in importance for U.S. oil and gas production, according to Rystad Energy.

    That assessment comes even though GoM production is expected to fall while Permian production continues its strong growth, said Artem Abramov, the consultancy’s vice president for analysis.

    “The evolution of deepwater startup activity in second-half 2016 positions GoM for the prolonged growth in 2017,” Abramov wrote.

    Both the GoM and Permian experienced improved drilling efficiency in 2015-2016, the report said. To build on that, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its latest Drilling Productivity Report that May production in the Permian, spanning Texas and New Mexico, could reach 2.36 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d), an increase of nearly 76 Mbbl/d.

    The GoM produced 1.73 MMbbl/d of oil in December 2016, 20 Mbbl/d below its all-time high output of 1.752 MMbbl/d in September of 2009, the Rystad report said.

    GoM oil production in January 2017 almost reached 1.748 Mbbl/d, Abramov said, adding that production increased by 19 Mbbl/d from December 2016.

    The GoM in its entirety, not just the portion used for U.S. offshore drilling, has a total area of about 600,000 sq miles, and links the ports of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana and Texas with six Mexican states, according to the Gulf of Mexico Foundation.

    The Permian Basin is about 250 miles long by 300 miles wide and, according to DrillingInfo, most of the increased hydrocarbon production in recent years has come from the multi-stacked Sprayberry, Wolfcamp and Bone Spring areas in the Permian’s Delaware and Midland sub-basins. Abramov said the driving force behind these multi-stacked areas was the overall expansion of unconventional activity.

    The API gravity of crude in the two areas does not vary greatly—or at least not now—“as a lot of recent deepwater developments produce fairly light crude as well,” Abramov said.  This was not the case historically, he added, noting U.S. refineries were designed for heavier crudes. Now, GoM producers can more easily find domestic refinery contracts along the Gulf Coast, he said.

    How much crude could be produced in both areas?

    The Permian could add between 450 Mbbl/d and 500 Mbbl/d in 2017, and about that amount in 2018, Abramov said. In 2018, one large, 450-Mbbl/d pipeline in the Permian will be turned in-line. Between 300 Mbbl/d and 450 Mbbl/d of capacity can be added through existing pipelines, he said.

    Abramov cautioned, however, that any more growth in the Permian will come with “severe bottlenecks and cost escalation.”

    Setbacks are something already experienced with production in the GoM.

    Production outages are likely for the GoM Abramov said, noting the February fire on Phillips 66’s Paradis Pipeline. “Typically, we observe [one to two] unplanned outages each year, which have some material impact on the total GoM supply. Most frequently, unplanned outages are associated with the hurricane season [in the third quarter].”

    The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season begins June 1.

    Abramov predicted a minor decline for February’s final GoM production, saying “next week we should get final production [information] for February.” He noted that in March, though, production likely passed September 2009’s 1.752 MMbbl/d.

    http://www.epmag.com/analyst-permian-gom-are-equally-important-producers-1547501#p=full
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    Patterson-UTI Huge Increase in Monthly Rig Count


    As we do every month (and have for two years), MDN tracks how many rigs oilfield services company Patterson-UTI Energy reports operating–as a proxy for rig count health in the Marcellus/Utica.

    Patterson operates a number of rigs in the northeast, as well as other areas of the continental United States (and Canada).

    Patterson was our “canary down the mine shaft” for discerning when the deep, dark recession in drilling would turn around. It happened in June 2016–and every single month since that time, including the month of April.

    In March, Patterson’s rig count jumped up by 10, to an average of 88 active rigs operating in the U.S. That has been the biggest single monthly increase since they began adding rigs again last June–until April. Last month the Patterson rig count rocketed to 115, up an amazing 27 rigs in a single month.

    http://marcellusdrilling.com/2017/05/patterson-uti-huge-increase-in-monthly-rig-count-sse-factored/
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    Cheniere posts $54 million profit in Q1


    US LNG export player Cheniere reported a net income of $54 million in the first quarter as it continued to boost production at its Sabine Pass LNG export terminal.

    This compares to a net loss of $321 million in the first quarter of 2016.

    Total revenues increased $1,142 million during the three months ended March 31, 2017, hitting $1.2 million compared to $69 million in the first quarter 2016, generally as a result of the commencement of operations at the Sabine Pass LNG project.

    Cheniere’s Sabine Pass LNG project loaded 43 LNG cargoes during the first quarter, seven of which were commissioning cargoes. This is an equivalent of 154 trillion British thermal units (TBtu).

    Jack Fusco, Cheniere’s president and CEO said, “train 3 of the SPL project achieved substantial completion during the quarter, and we commenced commissioning activities on Train 4. We have now safely and efficiently placed three trains into commercial operation in less than a year, and we expect to have Train 4 complete during the second half of 2017.”

    He added that the company is looking to place the fourth liquefaction train at the Sabine Pass LNG plant by the end of 2017.

    Cheniere’s LNG revenues in the first quarter of 2017 hit $1.14 billion, the company’s report shows.

    As of April 2017, LNG from the SPL Project had reached 20 of the 39 LNG importing countries around the world.


    http://www.lngworldnews.com/cheniere-posts-54-million-profit-in-q1/
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    Occidental Petroleum Announces 1st Quarter 2017 Results


    Net Income of $117 million or $0.15 per share
    Permian Resources average daily production of 129,000 BOE, up 5 percent from the previous quarter
    Chemical segment’s Ingleside ethylene cracker started in February, on schedule and on budget

    Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE:OXY) today announced reported net income of $117 million, or $0.15 per diluted share, compared with a reported loss of $272 million, or $0.36 per diluted share, for the fourth quarter of 2016. Lower costs, improved crude oil prices and the increase in caustic soda prices and sales volumes during the first quarter resulted in increases to income and cash flow on a sequential basis.

    “Our focus remains on areas that generate the best returns and we are seeing improvements in margins across all of our businesses,” said President and Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub. “Permian Resources continues to be a growth engine for our company, with a 5 percent improvement in production this quarter, reflecting increased drilling activity and well productivity in the Delaware Basin.”

    QUARTERLY RESULTS

    Oil and Gas

    Total average daily production volumes were 584,000 barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) for the first quarter of 2017. Permian Resources average daily production volumes came within guidance and improved by 6,000 BOE from the prior quarter to 129,000 BOE in the first quarter of 2017 due to increased drilling activity and well productivity in the Delaware Basin. In April 2017, Occidental completed the sale of its South Texas gas properties. First quarter of 2017 average daily production volumes, adjusted to exclude South Texas, were 559,000 BOE, including domestic production volumes from ongoing operations of 278,000 BOE.

    Internationally, average daily production volumes were 281,000 BOE for the first quarter of 2017. Production volumes for the first quarter of 2017 reflected Colombia pipeline disruptions, as well as planned maintenance at the Al Hosn Gas and Dolphin operations. All of these assets are currently operating at full capacity.

    Oil and gas pre-tax income for the first quarter of 2017 was $220 million, compared to $17 million for the fourth quarter of 2016. The increase in oil and gas results reflected higher oil prices and lower DD&A rates in the first quarter of 2017, partially offset by lower international sales volumes.

    For the first quarter of 2017, average WTI and Brent marker prices were $51.91 per barrel and $54.66 per barrel, respectively. Average worldwide realized crude oil prices were $49.04 per barrel for the first quarter of 2017, an increase of 9 percent compared with the fourth quarter of 2016. Average worldwide realized NGL prices were $21.59 per barrel in the first quarter of 2017, an increase of 18 percent compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. Average domestic realized natural gas prices were $2.68 per MCF in the first quarter of 2017, compared to $2.39 per MCF in the fourth quarter of 2016.

    Chemical

    In February, OxyChem and its joint venture partner, Mexichem, began operations of an ethylene cracker in Ingleside, Texas. The project was completed on schedule and on budget. The cracker, which is operated by OxyChem, has the capacity to produce 1.2 billion pounds of ethylene per year and provide OxyChem with an ongoing source of ethylene for manufacturing vinyl chloride monomer, which Mexichem will use to produce polyvinyl chloride (PVC) resin and PVC piping systems. The companies have a 20-year supply agreement.

    Chemical pre-tax income for the first quarter of 2017 was $170 million. Pricing for caustic soda continued to increase as global demand remained robust and supply was limited due to industry-wide planned and unplanned outages. In addition to the impact of higher caustic soda prices, chlor-alkali margins improved more than anticipated due to lower natural gas costs compared to original forecasts. Compared to pre-tax income of $152 million in the fourth quarter of 2016, the increase resulted from higher realized caustic soda prices and volumes. Production and sales volumes increased seasonally from the fourth quarter of 2016.

    http://www.oxy.com/News/Pages/Article.aspx?Article=5880.html
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    Apache posts profit, improved Alpine High well results


    Houston oil and gas producer Apache Corp. returned to profitability last quarter and, perhaps more importantly, delivered first gas to market and improved oil production results at its new West Texas discovery, Alpine High.

    First quarter revenues jumped by almost $800 million or three-quarters to $1.9 billion over the same period last year, Apache reported on Thursday. Expenses fell by $125 million or 9 percent to $1.3 billion. And income leaped to $200 million in the quarter, a jump of almost $600 million after a $400 million loss in the first quarter of 2016.

    At the same time, the company reported new results for its much-discussed West Texas discovery, Alpine High. It finished construction of the first section of a 30-inch gas pipeline, allowing the company to send gas to market for the first time in the field. The trunk line allows Apache to begin bringing on new wells and producing oil and natural gas liquids in earnest.

    Apache also reported new test well results, including some of the field’s best oil production rates so far, an important marker after earlier results disappointed analysts.

    The Chinook 101AH, with a horizontal well length of just 4,500 feet, is producing more than 600 barrels of oil per day, the company reported, about three times better than previously released rates in the Woodford formation at Alpine High, and the highest flow to date there.

    And the Blackhawk 5H, with another 4,500-foot lateral, is producing more than 700 barrels of oil per day, 200 better than the company’s next best result in the Barnett formation.

    “At Alpine High, testing and delineation have continued with strong results that reinforce our confidence in this world-class resource play,” said chief executive John Christmann.

    “We are maintaining a razor-sharp focus on costs and well optimisation and actively managing our portfolio,” he added.

    http://fuelfix.com/blog/2017/05/04/apache-posts-profit-improved-alpine-high-well-results/
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    Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces 2017 First Quarter Results

    Canadian Natural Resources Limited Announces 2017 First Quarter Results

    Commenting on the first quarter 2017 results, Steve Laut, President of Canadian Natural stated, “The strength of our well balanced and diverse portfolio, combined with Canadian Natural’s ability to effectively and efficiently execute, delivered a strong first quarter for the Company. Funds flow from operations were strong in the quarter, exceeding capital expenditures by approximately $800 million, and as a direct result, contributed to over $500 million of debt reduction in the quarter, strengthening our balance sheet quickly.

    Execution continues at Horizon with strong production following the ramp up of Phase 2B. Expansion volumes drove 9% growth in our crude oil production volumes and 4% growth on an overall BOE basis when compared with the first quarter of 2016, impressive results given natural gas volumes were once again impacted by third party facility reliability issues. Furthermore at Horizon, record low operating costs of just over $22.00/bbl of SCO were achieved, another strong result. The Phase 3 expansion continues to be on schedule and costs are on track. Phase 3 is targeted to add an additional 80,000 bbl/d of SCO in only six months, the next step in our transition to a long-life, low decline asset base.”

    Canadian Natural’s Chief Financial Officer, Corey Bieber, continued, “Our financial performance was strong during the first quarter. The Company achieved net earnings of $245 million as production increased by 2% from the fourth quarter of 2016, with benchmark crude oil prices stabilizing in the US$50 region in the quarter. Funds flow from operations for the Company in the quarter was also robust at $1.64 billion. This translates to free cash flow after capital expenditures and dividends requirements of roughly $515 million, further translating to a reduction in absolute debt levels of $500 million. Commensurate with this debt reduction, available liquidity to the Company increased by approximately $500 million to $3.5 billion from the $3.0 billion available at the end of 2016.”

    – Canadian Natural generated funds flow from operations of $1,639 million in Q1/17, an increase of almost $1.0 billion from $657 million in Q1/16 and comparable with $1,677 million in Q4/16. The increase from Q1/16 primarily reflects higher synthetic crude oil (“SCO”) sales volumes and realized prices from the Company’s North America Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading (“Horizon”), higher North America E&P crude oil and NGL netbacks and higher natural gas netbacks.

    — The Company generated significant free cash flow of approximately $800 million in Q1/17 after net capital expenditures. After capital expenditures and quarterly dividend requirements, approximately $515 million of free cash flow was realized in the quarter, which was largely used to reduce the Company’s debt levels.

    – For Q1/17, the Company had net earnings of $245 million compared to net earnings of $566 million in Q4/16 and a net loss of $105 million in Q1/16. The adjusted net earnings from operations was $277 million in Q1/17 compared to adjusted net earnings of $439 million in Q4/16 and an adjusted net loss of $543 million in Q1/16.

    – Canadian Natural’s corporate crude oil and NGLs production volumes averaged 598,113 bbl/d representing a 9% increase from Q1/16 levels. Crude oil and NGL production volume increases were primarily due to the successful ramp up of the Horizon Phase 2B expansion.

    – The Company’s corporate production volumes averaged 876,907 BOE/d in Q1/17, representing a 4% increase from Q1/16 levels, despite 3rd party natural gas facility outages experienced in the quarter.

    – At Horizon, Canadian Natural’s world class oil sands mining and upgrading operations, record quarterly production volumes were achieved for the second consecutive quarter. In Q1/17 production reached 192,491 bbl/d of SCO, within the Company’s previously issued guidance, representing increases of 8% and 50% over Q4/16 and Q1/16 levels respectively.

    http://boereport.com/2017/05/04/canadian-natural-resources-limited-announces-2017-first-quarter-results/
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    Chesapeake profit beats on higher crude prices


    U.S. natural gas producer Chesapeake Energy Corp reported a better-than-expected quarterly profit and raised its 2017 production estimate, helped by an uptick in crude prices after a more than two-year slump.

    Chesapeake shares were up 3.8 percent at $5.75 in premarket trading on Thursday.

    The company raised the lower end of its full-year production forecast to 197.5 million barrels of oil equivalent (boe), from 194 million boe. It maintained the upper end of the range at 205 million boe.

    Chesapeake said average realized oil price rose 37 percent to $51.72 in the first quarter ended March 31, while natural gas prices rose about 32 percent.

    However, the company's total production fell 21.3 percent to 48 million barrels of oil equivalent in the quarter.

    Chesapeake reported a net profit available to shareholders of $75 million, or 8 cents per share, in the quarter, compared with a loss of $1.11 billion, or $1.66 per share, a year earlier.

    The year-ago quarter included an impairment charge of nearly $1 billion as the company wrote down the value of some oil and gas assets.

    Excluding items, the company earned 23 cents per share, above analysts' average estimate of 18 cents per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

    Total revenue rose 41 percent to $2.75 billion in the quarter, well above estimates of $2.30 billion.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-chesapeake-enrgy-results-idUSKBN1801B7
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    Penn West reports profit on higher oil prices, asset sales gains


    Canadian oil and gas producer Penn West Petroleum Ltd reported a quarterly profit, compared to a year-ago loss, helped by an uptick in crude prices and gains from asset sales.

    The company said average sales price of heavy oil more than doubled in the first quarter, while light oil and natural gas liquids prices rose 65.3 percent.

    Operating costs rose 11.2 percent to C$14.48 per barrel of oil equivalent (boe) in the three months ended March 31, partly due to the timing and costs related to assets sold or held for sale.

    Quarterly total production fell 54.7 percent to 34,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), primarily due to asset sales.

    The company — which in 2013 was a 133,000 boepd producer — operates primarily in the Cardium, Viking and Peace River areas of Alberta after shrinking its portfolio dramatically to help survive the downturn.

    The company reported a net profit of C$27 million ($19.69 million), or 5 Canadian cents per share, in the first quarter ended March 31, compared with a loss of C$100 million, or 20 Canadian cents per share, a year earlier.

    The Calgary-based company said gross revenue fell to C$132 million from C$231 million.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/penn-west-results-idUSL4N1I63EM

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    Alternative Energy

    Solar records, strong wind push German Apr power average to 8-month low-What it means for Europe-low



    German wind and solar power output in April was up 23% on year at the second-highest level following March's all-time-high with fresh solar records helping to push the monthly spot power average to an eight-month-low, S&P Global Platts pricing data and grid operator data show.

    Day-ahead power prices averaged at Eur29.26/MWh in April, the lowest since August last year and only 20% above last year's April average after low wind production helped to boost the January and February averages by over 80% compared to record-lows in early 2016, Platts pricing data shows.

    Germany's estimated 93 GW fleet of wind turbines and solar panels generated 12.4 TWh of electricity in April, averaging just over 17 GW each hour and almost doubling since 2013, the TSO data compiled by think-tank Fraunhofer ISE shows.

    Wind output was up 37% on year at 8.2 TWh, while solar output was just 2% higher than in April last year at 4.2 TWh, it said.


    However, solar reached new all-time hourly and daily production records at 27.5 GW on April 30 at 1:00 pm with the daily output of 252 GWh pushing hourly prices on the last April Sunday deep into negative territory on the Epex Spot exchange.

    The data is based on measured estimates by the four TSOs with complete data sets only available at a later stage.

    Combined wind and solar output peaked above 40 GW on six days in April with a further seven days registering peaks above 30 GW with the maximum/minimum output levels swinging between a record 48.8 GW and just 1.2 GW, the data shows.

    The record renewables surge in March and April follows four months of below-average wind conditions stretching back to November, which at times overshadowed the continued boom in German renewables installations with both wind and solar additions up another 10% in the first quarter and Germany's installed wind and solar portfolio expected to reach 100 GW by summer 2018.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/electric-power/london/solar-records-strong-wind-push-german-apr-power-26726287

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    Turning Plastic to Oil, U.K. Startup Sees Money in Saving Oceans


    At a garbage dump about 80 miles west of London, Adrian Griffiths is testing an invention he’s confident will save the world’s oceans from choking in plastic waste. And earn him millions.

    His machine, about the size of a tennis court, churns all sorts of petroleum-based products -- cling wrap, polyester clothing, carpets, electronics -- back into oil. It takes less than a second and the resulting fuel, called Plaxx, can be used to make plastic again or power ship engines.

    “We want to change the history of plastic in the world,” said Griffiths, the chief executive officer of Recycling Technologies in Swindon, a town in southwest England where 2.4 tons of plastic waste can get transformed in this way daily as part of a pilot project.

    For financial backers including the U.K. government and more than 100 private investors, the technology could mark a breakthrough in how plastic is managed globally. The machine uses a feedstock recycling technique developed at Warwick University to process plastic waste without the need for sorting, a major hurdle that has prevented economically viable recycling on a grand scale.

    Griffiths’ project is unique in that it doesn’t target a specific type of plastic, but rather seeks to find a solution for the so-called plastic soup inundating the world’s water bodies. By 2050, plastic will outweigh fish in the oceans, according to a study presented at this year’s World Economic Forum by the Ellen MacArthur Foundation.

    “It could be a real game changer,” said Patricia Vangheluwe, consumer & environmental affairs director at PlasticsEurope, a trade association representing more than 100 polymer producers, including BASF SE and Dow Chemical Co. “This is a great way of getting plastics that you would not be able to recycle with current technology, or do that in an economic way, back into the circular economy.”

    At the moment, only about 10 percent of plastic gets reprocessed because it’s cheaper to pump new oil for petrochemical feedstock, especially after crude prices collapsed in recent years. The rest is incinerated, disposed in landfills, or dumped into oceans, releasing toxic chemicals that harm coral reefs and get swallowed by the marine life humans eat.

    Many projects fail because they don’t offer a big enough margin to make them viable, according to Nick Cliffe, innovation lead in charge of resources efficiency at Innovate U.K., one of two government agencies that’s provided 2.6 million pounds ($3.4 million) of grants to Recycling Technologies.

    “Recovering raw materials from the waste stream is the future,” said Cliffe, whose team also finances projects that recover platinum from old electronics and calcium from eggshells.

    A former car assembly-line designer, Griffiths wants to mass produce his machine, called RT7000, and then lease them. It can fit into five shipping containers, a fraction of the size of standard recycling systems. The idea is for it to be transported to the site of the problem, like a beach in a developing country where garbage washes up regularly and local recycling is limited.

    Plastic Waste

    Factoring in a cost of 3 million pounds to install and 500,000 pounds annually to operate, Recycling Technologies expects revenue of 1.7 million pounds per year per machine, thereby recovering its initial investment in 2-1/2 years, he says.

    “That was always the objective, to make a machine that could pay for itself, because then people will make the investment decisions and it can scale very quickly,” said Griffiths, 48, who aims to have 100 RT7000s up and running by 2025. The county of Perthshire, Scotland will start using one in 2018 to turn 7,000 tons of plastic waste annually into 5,000 tons of Plaxx.

    One recent afternoon at the Swindon plant, workers heaped plastic onto a conveyor belt via a tube. The materials move through a series of units that separate out stuff like rocks, dirt and caked-on food. Once that’s done, the plastic enters a furnace-like box and is heated at around 500 degrees Celsius (932 degrees Fahrenheit) using hot sand-like particles that melt it into vapor.

    The technique is similar to thermal cracking, whereby crude is transformed into gasoline and jet fuel, only a different material is used in heating that Recycling Technologies is in the process of patenting, according to technical director Mike Keast, a former oil refinery designer.

    “We have to create new technology so we can both live how we want and not destroy the planet,” he said, shouting to be heard over the screech of Coke and Sprite cans being pressed into cubes at an aluminum-can crusher next door.

    The vapor is cooled at different temperatures to create one of three materials, each emerging from separate taps at the bottom of the machine. Out of one, a straw-colored light fuel that can be sold to petrochemicals companies. A second pumps out a heavier substance reminiscent of candle wax, similar to what’s burned in ship engines. From the third, a thick brown wax that can be used to make shoe polish or cosmetics.

    Griffiths says he’s in talks with about five petrochemical firms for supply agreements, although he wouldn’t give details. German chemical maker BASF, for one, expects feedstock recycling technologies will be “important supplement” to waste-treatment options, according to spokeswoman Christine Haupt.

    While he and his staff of 22 are driven by a desire to protect the oceans, they concede that with plastic consumption set to double in the next 20 years, recycling must be profitable to make a difference. Griffiths’ next goal is to build a manufacturing facility.

    “I’m not a tree hugger,” he said. “I don’t think that you can change environmental things without it actually making money.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-05/turning-plastic-to-oil-u-k-startup-sees-money-in-saving-oceans

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    Agriculture

    ChemChina clinches $43 billion takeover of Syngenta


    ChemChina's has won more than enough support from Syngenta shareholders to clinch its $43 billion takeover of the Swiss pesticides and seeds group, the two companies said on Friday.

    "At the end of the main offer period on May 4, based on preliminary numbers, around 80.7 percent of shares have been tendered. Subject to confirmation in the definitive notice of interim results scheduled for May 10, the minimum acceptance rate condition of 67 percent of issued Syngenta shares has been met," they said in a joint statement.

    The agreed offer is for $465 per share. Syngenta shares closed on Thursday at 459 Swiss francs.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-syngenta-ag-m-a-chemchina-idUSKBN1810CU
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    Precious Metals

    Peruvian Supreme Court rules against Newmont


    Newmont Mining, the world's 2nd largest gold miner, walked away from its $5 billion Conga copper and gold project in Peru in 2016, due to relentless community opposition.

    The Supreme Court of Peru has ruled in favour of a farmer that Newmont Mining claimed was illegally occupying land it wanted to develop into the Conga mine.

    The U.S.-based gold miner appealed a decision by a lower court in 2014 that ruled in favour of potato farmer Máxima Acuña.

    Community opposition to the $5 billion copper and gold project forced Newmont to walk away from it last year.

    Acuña, who has been at the forefront of the opposition against the Conga project since it was first proposed in 2010, was awarded the Goldman Environmental Prize.

    Newmont decided to halt construction work at the project in November 2011, after violent protests led by governor Gregorio Santos forced the country's government to declare a state of emergency.

    Minera Yanacocha, one of the two local companies working with Newmont on the now mothballed project, tried hard to win local support, but was unable to secure it.

    "I feel happy and relieved that here in the capital [the court] has also provided justice," Acuña said after the Supreme Court decision. Reuters reported Acuña saying her home was destroyed during the mine's construction. Minera Yanacocha took her to court for "usurping" its land.

    Output from Conga was supposed to replace production from the nearby Yanacocha mine, which is running out of gold.

    http://www.mining.com/peruvian-supreme-court-rules-newmont/
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    Base Metals

    Indonesia and U.S. miner Freeport start contract negotiations


    Indonesian authorities on Thursday kicked off negotiations with Freeport McMoran Inc. over a contract dispute that has prompted the U.S. mining giant to scale down operations in the eastern province of Papua.

    CEO Richard Adkerson met with mining ministry officials in Jakarta to start talks over a range of disagreements including legal assurances over investments beyond 2021, tax rates, and a government requirement for Freeport to divest a 51 percent stake in its local operations.

    "We have work to do, issues to discuss, but we're all going in this with goodwill and optimism about reaching a win-win situation," Adkerson told reporters after meeting with mining minister Ignasius Jonan and other officials from the central and Papua provincial government.

    "For Freeport, the key issue is having assurance about our ability to operate," he added.

    Teguh Pamuji, secretary general at the mining ministry, said the negotiations would focus on fiscal certainty, taxes and royalties, divestments, and the development of smelters.

    The dispute arose after Indonesia revised its mining rules in January, which brought Freeport’s copper concentrate exports to a halt and led to the company scaling back operations and temporarily laying off thousands of workers in the impoverished Papua province.

    To comply with the new rules, Freeport and other miners are required to convert their original contracts of work to a special contract. Freeport, which argues this requirement and others violate its existing contract, has threatened arbitration.

    But both sides have recently softened their tone, saying instead that arbitration is a last resort.

    "So long as we're progressing to (a) ... mutually acceptable resolution, there would be no arbitration," Adkerson said.

    Freeport was last month granted an export permit valid until February 2018, allowing it to resume export shipments until at least October 2017, pending further negotiations. The move came after U.S. Vice President Mike Pence visited the Southeast Asian nation.

    A Freeport workers' union started a month-long strike on May 1 aimed at ending the company's layoffs and furlough policy.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-indonesia-freeport-idUSKBN1801GP
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    Congo Q1 copper production jumps 25% y/y – central bank


    Copper output in Democratic Republic of Congo, Africa's top producer, hit 274 316 t in the first quarter of 2017, a 25% increase over the 219 009 t produced in the same period last year, the central bank said on Wednesday.

    The output represents a rebound after production in the first quarter last year dipped 20% due to low global prices.

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/congo-q1-copper-production-jumps-25-yy-central-bank-2017-05-04
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    Nyrstar invests in mines to make them attractive to buyers


    Belgian zinc producer Nyrstarsaid it was committed to pulling out of mining and added it would make small investments to improve its remaining mines in North America and make them more attractive to a potential buyer.

    Nyrstar entered mining in 2009 to secure supply of raw materials but a string of operational issues led to the division making a loss and the company decided to sell its mines.

    In the first quarter of 2017, Nyrstar's remaining mines in North America made a small core profit of €3-million ($3.3-million).

    "Nyrstar . . . will continue to utilise limited additional capex to prove up reserves and strengthen mine plans to facilitate sales of its remaining North American mining asset base," the company said.

    After agreeing to sell all of its Latin American operations, the group still owns mining assets in the US and Canada.

    For the company as a whole, core profit in the first quarter increased by about a third from last year to €55-million, boosted by its zinc smelting business which benefited from higher commodity prices and a stronger dollar.

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/nyrstar-invests-in-mines-to-make-them-attractive-to-buyers-2017-05-04
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    Idled New Madrid aluminium smelter targeted for partial restart late this year


    Switzerland-based ARG International AG is working to get one potline back in production this fall at the long-idled, 263,000 mt/year New Madrid primary aluminium smelter, which has been renamed Magnitude 7 Metals, in southeastern Missouri, a spokesman for the smelter said Wednesday.

    Donnie Brittain, who was employed by Noranda Aluminum, the smelter's former owner, for 30 years before the smelter closed in March 2016, said in an interview that ARG officials are negotiating an agreement with Ameren Missouri to buy 175-180 MW of around-the-clock power to supply one potline.

    Ameren Missouri, a subsidiary of St. Louis-based Ameren, supplied New Madrid for years. Magnitude 7 Metals also is in discussions with Associated Electric Cooperative, a generation and transmission cooperative located in Springfield, Missouri.

    New Madrid city administrator Richard McGill said in an interview Wednesday that the community supports the efforts of Magnitude 7 Metals.

    "We don't have a power agreement yet," Brittain said. "We're in negotiations right now. Our plan is to get something producing in the fourth quarter of 2017" at the smelter that provided hundreds of good-paying jobs for decades in the New Madrid area.

    Noranda shut the smelter shortly after the Franklin, Tennessee-based company filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization February 8, 2016.

    During its time in bankruptcy, Noranda sold off its major assets, including the smelter, three rolling mills in Tennessee, Arkansas and North Carolina and its 1.2 million mt/year Gramercy alumina refinery in Louisiana.

    Matt Lucke, a former Glencore official who formed ARG, was successful in a court-sanctioned auction for the smelter last year with a high bid of $13.7 million. The deal closed October 28.

    But New Day Aluminum, a company headed by former senior management of Wise Metals, outbid ARG/Lucke for Gramercy with a winning offer of $24.43 million, just edging out ARG's $24 million bid.

    Although Brittain acknowledged ARG "failed in the process of getting the Gramercy alumina refinery," he said ARG keeps "a pretty good pulse" on the alumina market and should not have any difficulty in securing enough alumina for a partial smelter restart later this year.

    Brittain said Lucke recently lured Robert Prusak, a former Glencore executive, out of retirement to serve as president and CEO of Magnitude 7 Metals. Prusak, who previously served as chairman of the former Ormet Corp. in Ohio as well, could not be reached Wednesday for comment.

    According to Brittain, Magnitude 7 Metals -- named after a series of powerful earthquakes that shook the New Madrid area in 1811-1812 -- currently is a seven-employee company. Despite the company's optimism, the smelter's restart is not yet guaranteed. A new power arrangement at acceptable rates is crucial to any restart.

    Indeed, Noranda's inability to secure less expensive electricity for New Madrid was a key factor in the company's eventual bankruptcy.

    "We're looking to see if we have the ability to restart it with all the economic factors in line," he said. Alumina prices have fallen to just over $300/mt in recent weeks from about $360/mt earlier this year.

    Brittain said Magnitude 7 Metals would like to see aluminium prices around $1,940/mt on the London Metal Exchange before finally pulling the trigger on the smelter restart. While the smelter has been maintained since its shutdown, the restart itself would be fairly expensive, probably costing millions of dollars, he noted.

    Nevertheless, the company remain hopeful the first potline will be up and running again later this fall. If the first potline is operational this fall, the company tentatively is targeting the second quarter of 2018 for the second potline restart, he added.

    Missouri's electric market is not deregulated, but because its load was so large -- around 500 MW -- and because of its importance to southeastern Missouri, the smelter had been granted what amounted to a variance to pursue the most attractive power arrangement it could get.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/louisville-kentucky/idled-new-madrid-aluminum-smelter-targeted-for-21625457
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    Steel, Iron Ore and Coal

    Shenshuo rail line April coal transport reaches a record high


    Shenshuo rail line transported 21.82 million tonnes of coal in April, rising 12.1% from the year-ago level, hitting a record high, said Shenshuo Railway Co., Ltd, a subsidiary of Shenhua Group.

    Of this, the average haulage in the month reached 186.2 wagons.

    The 266-km line, which starts from Daliuta in Shaanxi province and ends in Shuozhou in neighboring Shanxi province, mainly delivers coal from Shenfu and Dongsheng coal fields owned by Shenhua Group.

    http://www.sxcoal.com/news/4555611/info/en
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    Anglo American sells Drayton to unlisted Malabar Coal


    Diversified miner Anglo American has struck a sales agreement with unlisted Malabar Coal to divest of its 88.17% interest in the Drayton thermal coal and the much aligned Drayton South project, in New South Wales.

    “The agreement to sell the Drayton thermal coal mine marks further progress as we focus our global portfolio around our largest and most competitive assets,” Anglo CEO Mark Cutifani said on Thursday.

    Anglo in 2016 announced plans to divest of its coal interests in Australia, after narrowing its focus to diamonds, platinumand copper.

    The Drayton transaction, details of which are confidential, will be effected through a share sale in Anglo’s subsidiary companies that hold the Drayton interest. The transaction remains subject to several conditions precedent.

    Anglo American ceased mining operations at Drayton in 2016, after plans for the Drayton South coal project have been repeatedly rejected by the New South Wales Planning and Assessment Commission over fears that it will impact on nearby horse stud farms.

    Anglo previously adjusted the mine plan for the Drayton South operation, including reducing the tonnage from a projected 189-million tonnes to only 75-million tonnes and cutting some A$7-billion in coal revenue. The mine plan also reduced the life of the operation from 27 to 15 years.

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/anglo-american-sells-drayton-to-unlisted-malabar-coal-2017-05-04
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    China iron ore imports ease in April amid cloudy outlook


    China iron ore imports ease in April amid cloudy outlookThe heat came out of China's iron ore imports in April, with vessel-tracking and port data suggesting a decline of several million tonnes from the near-record levels recorded in March.

    A total of 83.27 million tonnes of the steel-making ingredient was discharged at Chinese ports in April, down 3.7 percent from March's 86.46 million, according to data compiled by Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodity Forecasts.

    It's worth noting that the vessel-tracking and port data typically comes in below the official Chinese customs data, which reported 95.56 million tonnes of iron ore imports in March, the second-highest on record.

    Nonetheless, the ship data does point to lower imports in April, most likely in the order of 3 million tonnes. Apart from a weak month in February, most likely related to the Lunar New Year holidays, the vessel-tracking figures show April to be the weakest month for iron ore imports since September last year.

    It also appears that much of the decline in iron ore imports was borne by Australia, China's largest supplier, with the data showing imports of 53.9 million tonnes in April, down from 58.9 million in March.

    In contrast, number two supplier Brazil saw Chinese imports of 18.48 million tonnes in April, up from March's 16.54 million. The lower imports from Australia in April are most likely the result of earlier weather-related disruptions in the main producing area of Western Australia state that affected both mines and rail networks.

    This means imports from Australia are likely to recover again in May, which may be a bearish signal for prices if miners such as Rio Tinto, BHP Billiton and Fortescue Metals Group decide to chase volumes over prices.

    This can already partly be seen by the 11 percent jump in iron ore shipments from Port Hedland, the terminal used by BHP and Fortescue, to 34.86 million tonnes in April from 31.5 million in March. This tallies with the Chinese import numbers from Thomson Reuters, given the sailing time of around two weeks between northwest Australia and China.

    Ultimately iron ore prices are driven by steel prices and margins, and here the outlook is less certain, with the main Shanghai rebar contract trending lower in recent weeks. It hit a peak of 3,440 yuan ($499) a tonne on March 15, but slipped 9.2 percent since then to Wednesday's close of 3,123 yuan, as doubts emerged among market participants over the resilience of China's infrastructure and construction spending.

    While Chinese steel output has remained robust so far this year, the market seems to be swinging toward the view that margins will be under pressure in the second half of the year as domestic demand growth slows and exports struggle.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/column-russell-ironore-china-idUSL4N1I61W1
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    Liberty House's Gupta predicts no fall in China's steel capacity despite cuts


    Liberty House, the industrials and commodities group that has been buying troubled steel plants, does not expect China's net steel capacity to fall, despite Beijing's capacity cut targets.

    China produces about half the world's steel and pledged last year to cut 100-150 million tonnes of capacity by 2020, which along with infrastructure spending helped prices soar.

    The world's second largest economy cut 60 million tonnes of capacity last year and has targeted another 50 million tonnes this year, but Liberty chairman Sanjeev Gupta said China was also adding capacity.

    "I understand (the Chinese) have put a cap on (steel) capacity, which means larger plants can increase capacity and have more efficient capacity, and less efficient capacity will be taken out of the system," Gupta told Reuters on Thursday on the sidelines of the CRU World Aluminium Conference in London.

    "If anything it makes it worse (for rival steelmakers) because its makes (China) more efficient, more competitive."

    Gupta, who was bullish on steel even during the crisis in 2015, said there are still distressed plants that offer value, even though steel company shares globally have risen by 80 percent since early January 2015.

    In the U.S., Gupta is betting anti-dumping moves under President Donald Trump will hurt the much larger manufacturing base in the long term.

    The Trump administration last month invoked a seldom-used provision of law to launch a probe into whether imports of Chinese and other foreign-made steel are a U.S. national security risk.

    It currently has around 150 anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties in place on steel imports, while the European Union has 39 such measures in place on steel.

    "I'm not a supporter of protectionism. I encourage the general move in the U.S. for investment in industry, but protectionism ... long term ... makes (industry) more inefficient and kills downstream (businesses)."

    Gupta's 'greensteel' model is based on using renewable energy to fire furnaces that recycle locally sourced scrap and feed the finished steel to his manufacturing businesses that make high value-added goods.

    The model puts Liberty's steel plants low down the cost curve, where they are less impacted by policy decisions.

    Liberty's move into steelmaking, aluminium smelting and engineering, which started late in 2015, helped operating profit jump 74 percent to $99 million in 2016, while turnover soared 82 percent to $6.8 billion.

    PARTIAL LISTING

    Gupta, who launched Liberty House 25 years ago while studying at Cambridge University, plans to list some of its multibillion-dollar businesses, probably in 2018.

    Liberty and SIMEC, which operate under the $9.4 billion Gupta Family Group (GFG) Alliance, has assets spanning steelmaking, aluminium smelting, engineering, energy, commodities trading, shipping, property and finance.

    Gupta hit the headlines last year when it offered to rescue steel plants owned by Tata Steel UK (TISC.NS>. He has spent around $630 million on acquisitions in the past year.

    "(Listing) will happen sooner or later for sure ... 2018 is a soft target," said Gupta.

    "We want at least one if not more of the businesses to be in the public space, like energy for example, maybe steel eventually, but I'm not sure the UK is the right place for it, maybe the U.S."

    Gupta previously told Reuters he was considering a partial listing in London but that a firm decision had yet to be made.

    He said on Thursday that the energy business listing would probably be in London, but not steel.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/steel-liberty-uk-idUSL8N1I6647
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    China's key steel mills daily output up 0.14pct in mid-April


    Daily crude steel output of China's key steel mills gained 0.14% from ten days ago to 1.85 million tonnes over April 11-20, according to data released by the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA).

    Crude steel output in the country was estimated at 23.2 million tonnes during the same period, with daily output of 2.25 million tonnes in mid-April.

    By April 20, stocks of steel products at key steel mills stood at 14.56 million tonnes, up 1.91% from ten days ago, the CISA data showed.

    Rebar price dropped 6% from ten days ago to 3,412.3 yuan/t in mid-April, while wire price decreased 5.5% from ten days ago to 3,484.7 yuan/t.

    http://www.sxcoal.com/news/4555595/info/en
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    Beijing's three neighbouring cities to shut 22 Mtpa steel capacity


    Bazhou Xinli Iron and Steel Co., Ltd in Langfang city of Hebei province decided to withdraw from the market and had completely stopped production on April 26, Beijing Daily reported on May 5.

    The move, aimed at complying with China's de-capacity policy, reduced around 3 Mtpa of steelmaking capacity.

    The company has a total 3.5 Mtpa of capacity, and mainly produces strip steel and steel tube. Last year, it closed a blast furnace.

    It also signaled more efforts are to be made to slash surplus steel capacity in cities of Hebei that surround capital Beijing in the future.

    Langfang, Zhangjiakou and Baoding – Beijing's three neighboring cities – are expected to slash a total 22 Mtpa of steelmaking capacity in the near future.

    Steel capacity of the three cities amounted to 22.5 Mtpa, accounting for some 8% of Hebei's total steel capacity. Most of the steel enterprises that are to reduce capacity in these cities are private firms.
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    Positive prices buoying ferrochrome business – Merafe


    Ferrochrome prices for the first half of 2017 are providing ongoing momentum for the ferrochrome business, which is poised to benefit from this year’s stainless steel production growth rate forecast of 3.5%.

    The demand for ferrochrome is driven overwhelmingly by the production of stainless steel, which in 2018 is projected to grow by an even higher rate of 3.8%.

    The latest European benchmark ferrochrome price for the three months to June 30, 2017, has been settled at $1.54/lb, well up on the average of $0.95/lb of 2016 and the $1.07/lb of 2015.

    Though slightly lower than the first-quarter price of $1.65c/lb, the second-quarter price settlement continues to indicate a deficit in supply.

    Pricing for the first half of this year is positive, Merafe Resources CEO Zanele Matlala commented to Mining Weekly Online during an exclusive interview.

    Starting this year, Merafe’s policy is to pay a minimum dividend equal to 30% of yearly headline earnings and then also to declare special additional distributions of remaining cash not required within the business.

    The idea is to return as much as possible to shareholders.

    JSE-listed Merafe was formed in 2001 and had its own chrome smelter and two chrome mines, which were pooled with those of the former Xstrata in July 2004 to form the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture, the largest ferrochrome producer in the world, which operates eight chromite mines and 22 ferrochrome furnaces.

    The way the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture works is that both parties retain ownership of the assets that each contributed to the venture, which uses those assets to generate the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) that are shared in the ratio of 79.5% Glencore to 20.5% Merafe.

    “Our partner, Glencore, markets our products efficiently, adds value logistically and gets good prices,” said Matlala, who heads a company that employs six people at its head office and pays 20.5% of the salaries of the venture’s 13 000-plus employees.

    Eighty-seven per cent of its board members are black, 62% of its board members are women and 71% of its employees are black.

    In the 12 months to December 31, 2016, Merafe’s share of the venture’s Ebitda was R1 176.2-million, 38% higher than in 2015.

    Glencore has a 29% shareholding in Merafe and South Africa’s State-owned Industrial Development Corporation a 22% shareholding.

    The rest of the shareholding is in free float, 41% of it in South Africa and the remaining 8% offshore.

    In the past 18 months, the Merafe share has become far more liquid owing to investment management companies and institutions showing increasing interest in the share, which has been trading at prices well below the 190c a share. The analyst consensus on the share is currently between 179c to 300c a share.

    STRONG INVESTMENT CASE

    Merafe has a strong investment case that centres on factors such as its strong cash-flow generation, its secure long-term supply of ore reserves, its partnership with the global leader of chrome-ore and ferrochrome marketing, and its energyefficient technology that makes Merafe the lowest-cost producer in South Africa and the second-lowest cost producer in the world.

    Cost containment and cost reduction are the major pursuits of both the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture and the Merafe head office, where corporate costs fell to R30.2-million in 2016 compared with R34-million in 2015.

    Chrome ore, electricity and reductants are the main cost contributors. The cost of chrome ore is driven mainly by labour, with wages being negotiated by labour unions.

    The cost of electricity, which has been a major factor in the past, is no longer as big a concern, exemplified by the National Energy Regulator granting electricity utility Eskoma tariff increase from April 1, of 2.2%, the lowest for some time.

    Because of the use of Premus technology at the Lion II smelter, a key competitive advantage is that the venture’s power costs are lower than those of its competitors.

    Had the Lion operation not installed the Premus technology, it would have needed an additional 1 776 MWh to produce the same volume of ferrochrome.

    Reductant costs have also been declining. The Lion smelteralso uses considerably less coke and more locally produced, lower-cost anthracite and char than conventional smelters.

    Efficiency is increased through pelletising to cope with increasing volumes of fine chrome ore, with the pelletised material put through prereduction kilns that radically reduce furnace time and, thus, electricity consumption.

    The exchange rate of the rand against the dollar is a significant factor because most of the Merafe product is sold in dollars, making the conversion to rand important.

    The exchange rate prevailing at the time of going to press was similar to the 2016 average exchange rate of R14.70 to the dollar.

    DEBT REDUCTION
    Ranking after cost management on the priority list is debt reduction. In early 2017, Merafe debt was reduced to R226-million, the planned elimination of which in the next two years will position Merafe to take advantage of opportunities that may arise and augment dividend payouts.

    When the company was investing heavily in large new cost-reducing projects in past years, there were more moderate dividend prospects for share investors than is the case now that the company is harvesting the fruits of all those investments and has fewer demands on its cash.

    Throughout the lengthy period of capital project funding, Merafe at no stage resorted to the raising of equity capital and in the main funded most the capital programme from cash flow.

    The large Lion II smelter project was funded largely from cash flow and some debt, which has been substantially repaid, as have is capital contributions to the Bokamoso and Tswelopele pelletising and sintering plants, the upper group two plants and the Wonderkop acquisition.

    Last year’s ferrochrome revenue and chrome ore revenue were the highest ever.

    Merafe reported a 61% year-on-year increase in chrome ore revenue on 38% higher chrome ore sales volumes to 372 000 t and 7% higher chrome ore prices.

    The record production of 393 000 t in 2016 was only at about 82% of installed capacity and the company’s latest guidance to the market is that production at a level of 85% of installed capacity of 2.339-million tonnes is achievable in 2017, taking into account the maintenance carried out during the winter months when power is more expensive.

    The record level of sales of 437 000 t in 2016, which included selling from stock, will not be repeated in 2017.

    The company recorded its highest profit in 2008, when ferrochrome prices soared to $2/lb. With excess electricity
    supply now available, incentivised rates may well be negotiated for the winter months for additional use of electricity.

    Merafe’s attributable ferrochrome production from the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture for the first quarter of 2017 increased by 10% to 113 000 t compared to the comparative period. This increase was primarily attributable to improved performances and efficiencies across Venture’s furnaces, coupled with the restarting of Rustenburg furnace 5 in the second half of 2016. Merafe will hold its next annual general meeting on May 4 and present its interim results for the first six months of 2017 on August

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/positive-prices-buoying-ferrochrome-business-merafe-2017-05-03
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