Mark Latham Commodity Equity Intelligence Service

Tuesday 6th June 2017
Background Stories on www.commodityintelligence.com

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    Macro

    Bitcoin Spikes Above $2800 For First Time As "Japanese Buying Frenzy" Continues



    It appears the Japanese bought the f**king dip in Bitcoin last week, as tonight's session has seen s sudden surge in the price of the virtual currency, taking out prior record highs and topping $2800.

    Additionally, Bloomberg reports, the speculative frenzy in bitcoin is spilling over into several small cryto-currency-related stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.

    But it's not just Bitcoin that is soaring, Bloomberg reports that Remixpoint Co., Infoteria Corp. and Fisco Ltd., have all seen volatile swings in their share prices after announcing businesses related to digital currencies.

    Remixpoint, which has more than doubled since tying up with Peach Aviation Ltd. to let customers pay for tickets with bitcoin, fell as much as 9 percent in Tokyo on Tuesday.

    Infoteria, up more than 50 percent in the past month, is testing ways to let shareholders vote by proxy using blockchain, bitcoin’s underlying technology.

    Fisco, a financial information services provider, began operating a bitcoin exchange last year and is up about 25 percent since early May.

    All of these gains coincide with bitcoin’s rally, with the value of the virtual currency doubling against the U.S. dollar since early May. That has made the stocks of the these small-cap companies an attractive way for speculators to invest in cryptocurrency markets without buying them directly. That’s because investors can make bets via their brokerage accounts instead of taking risks with bitcoin exchanges, according to Naoki Murakami, a well-known day trader in Japan.

    “From about a month ago when all these virtual currencies started spiking like crazy, we began seeing the so-called ‘stocks of the virtual currency bubble,”’ said Murakami, a frequent speaker at investor conferences.

    “Not everyone is sure they can trust bitcoin exchanges. And some don’t have accounts there. That’s why they’re using the stock market to speculate.”

    Another reason why these stocks can become proxies for bitcoin is due to Japan’s relatively loose listing laws, some of which require no income and a market value of as little as $10 million before a company can go public. That’s made the Tokyo Stock Exchange home to hundreds of small companies.

    “It’s pure frenzy,” Murakami said.

    In April, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s government legalized digital currencies as a form of payment and placed rules around audits and security. That lent credibility to digital currencies, leading to some Japanese companies seeking partnerships with bitcoin startups.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-06-05/bitcoin-spikes-above-2800-first-time-japanese-buying-frenzy-continues
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    Margins of one of world's most polluting fuels soar after OPEC cuts



    OPEC's efforts to shore up oil prices has made one of the world's most polluting fuels a top performer for European oil refineries, as members of the producer group cut output of sulfur-filled crude grades that yield the most fuel oil.

    Margins for fuel oil, a product heavy in sulfur that is increasingly restricted worldwide due to the pollutants it contains, have outperformed cleaner fuels such as diesel and gasoline for most of the past month.

    Fuel oil margins in Europe have approached five-year highs, as shippers and other users have been snapping up the product while it is being produced in lower quantities.

    "Unlike the rest of the barrel, fuel oil cracks posted solid gains over May," analysts JBC Energy wrote in a note, adding that cracks for high sulfur fuel oil "have been assessed above the five-year range since March."

    High sulfur fuel oil cracks, a measure of profitability, nearly always run at a loss, and remain so now.

    But the loss has narrowed this year, despite growing efforts to reduce the amount of sulfur that can legally be burned in everything from ship engines to power plants, part of a global drive to reduce carbon emissions and pollution.

    This has been an unexpected side effect of production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some non-OPEC producers. OPEC-led cuts of about 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) have aimed to reduce a global crude glut.

    But most of the nations involved in cutting output primarily produce sulfur-rich, or heavy, crude grades. So production cuts made this type of oil more expensive relative to lighter oil grades that tend to have a lower sulfur content.

    Refineries from Texas to South Korea have taken advantage of comparably cheaper light oil from the United States, as well as from OPEC states Nigeria and Libya that are exempt from the production cut regime. Running these lighter crude grades through refineries means less fuel oil is produced.

    "It's a really big factor," JBC analyst Michael Dei-Michei said of the shift. "Everyone is trying to run light crudes."

    If a third of the 1 million bpd increase in U.S. refinery runs came from light shale oil, rather than a heavy crude such as Iraq's Basra, fuel oil output would fall by about 85,000 bpd, JBC said.

    SUPPLY DESTRUCTION, STRONG DEMAND

    Demand for fuel oil, which is widely used by ships, is likely to fall in future.

    The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is slashing the amount of sulfur allowed in shipping fuel, effectively banning high sulfur fuel oil unless vessels install sulfur-catching scrubbers.

    The United States and most of Europe have already banned high sulfur fuel use on their coasts. 

    But the IMO rules do not kick in until 2020. For now, a rise in global trade has spurred demand from shippers for fuel oil.

    World merchandise trade volumes in 2015 grew by about 1.4 percent, with the 2016 figure expected to show a similar rise, according to U.N. figures. This compares to a 13.6 percent drop in 2009, when OPEC last cut production.

    One trader said the only time he expected to see a drop in fuel oil demand was once new IMO rules were implemented.

    Some refineries are adapting before then. The newest units produce virtually no fuel oil at all. Others, particularly in Russia, have upgrades that substantially reduce output.

    In the first four months of 2017, Russian fuel oil output fell by almost 100,000 bpd, JBC said.

    U.S. residual fuel oil production in the past four weeks fell by 55,000 bpd, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, which JBC said could be due to refineries using light shale oil or condensates.

    Longer term, fuel oil faces a tough future.

    "The outlook for fuel oil is more uncertain," Energy Aspects said of the impending rules restricting its use.

    "New fuel blends, with plenty of middle distillates brought into the bunker pool, are the likely winners in the post-2020 shipping fuel shift," the consultancy said.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-refineries-fueloil-opec-idUSKBN18W0JV
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    Oil and Gas

    Oil prices slide over worries Middle East rift will undermine output cuts



    Oil prices fell for a third day on Tuesday, hit by concerns that a political rift between Qatar and several Arab states would undermine an OPEC-led push to tighten the market.

    Persistent gains in U.S. production also dragged on benchmark crude prices, traders said.

    Brent crude LCOc1 was trading at $49.27 per barrel at 0424 GMT, down 20 cents, or 0.4 percent from its last close. That is down 9 percent from the open of futures trading on May 25, when an OPEC-led policy to cut oil output was extended into the first quarter of 2018.

    U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 had dropped 18 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $47.21 per barrel. That is down about 8 percent from the May 25 open.

    Leading Arab powers including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates cut ties with Qatar on Monday, accusing it of support for Islamist militants and Iran.

    Steps taken include preventing ships coming from or going to the small peninsular nation to dock at Fujairah, in the UAE, used by Qatari oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers to take on new shipping fuel.

    Analysts said that the current dispute goes much deeper than a similar rift in 2014.

    "The measures by the anti-Qatar alliance signal commitment to forcing a complete change in Qatari policy or creating an environment for leadership change in Doha ... Saudi Arabia and its allies will not accept any solution short of (Qatari) capitulation," political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note.

    With oil production of about 620,000 barrels per day (bpd), Qatar's crude output ranks as one of the smallest among the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), but tension within the cartel could weaken an agreement to hold back production in order to prop up prices.

    Greg McKenna, chief market strategist at futures brokerage AxiTrader, said that the boycott of Qatar meant there was "a real chance" that OPEC solidarity surrounding its production cuts may fracture.

    Although Qatar is a small oil producer, other OPEC states could see such an action as a reason to stop restraining their own output, traders said.

    Worries over the outlook for OPEC's drive to rein in production come amid bulging supplies from elsewhere, especially the United States.

    U.S. crude production has jumped over 10 percent since mid-2016 to 9.34 million bpd C-OUT-T-EIA, levels close to top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia.

    "The relentless increase in U.S. oil production appears to have the market worried that the OPEC cuts will be completely nullified by the increased U.S. production," William O'Loughlin, analyst at Australia's Rivkin Securities, wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-idUSKBN18X02H
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    LIBYA OIL OUTPUT DECLINES TO 807K B/D


    LIBYA OIL OUTPUT DECLINES TO 807K B/D ON CUTS AT AGOCO FIELDS

    @zerohedge
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    Oil Supply is Re-balancing Now: SG, RBC



    The oil market re-balancing is in progress, even if it is slower than expected, according to releases by Societe Generale and RBC Capital Markets.

    When OPEC first agreed to cut production in November, it was hoped that six months of reduced production would be enough to rebalance the oil market and draw down inventories.

    However, according to Societe Generale OECD crude and product stocks at the end of April were 56 MM barrels higher than at the end of December. OPEC was essentially forced to continue cuts, which were agreed to in late May.

    Societe Generale reports that if cut compliance is maintained, oil stocks will begin to decrease in the rest of the year. Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 MMBOPD this year and in 2018. This increased demand, combined with decreased output from OPEC, means that the implied drawdown is 0.6 MMBOPD in 2017 and 0.5 MMBOPD in 2018.

    Both years will see most drawdowns in the second half of the year.

    According to RBC, inventories are already decreasing, though it may not be obvious. Total OECD oil stocks are about 280 MMBO higher than the five-year average currently. However, this is primarily due to the U.S. American stocks account for nearly 70% of the excess in storage currently. This situation has led RBC to predict that the U.S. will be the last major region to rebalance. However, RBC does anticipate that stocks will eventually balance out, probably in mid-2018.

    Both firms have decreased their predicted oil prices as a result of the slow drawdown on global inventories. Societe Generale expects WTI to average $53.80 in 2017 and $57.50 in 2018. RBC sees similar WTI prices, predicting $53/bbl in 2017 and $59/bbl in 2018.

    After this prices will rise over the next few years to $75/bbl, as the need for investment in major projects requires increased pricing, according to Societe Generale’s analysis.

    https://www.oilandgas360.com/oil-supply-is-rebalancing-now-sg-rbc/
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    Unusual export offers add to naphtha oversupply in Asia


    The unusual cocktail of rare export offers by some Southeast Asian countries, robust outflows from India, and market conditions favoring flow of cargoes from the West have left naphtha buyers in Asia spoilt for choice, a trend that is likely to continue in the coming months.

    With refineries steadily returning from maintenance at a time when China's appetite for imports remains feeble, Asia's naphtha market may feel the pinch as it braces for a situation of oversupply in the coming months, according to market participants who spoke to S&P Global Platts.

    "Over the next few months, Asia may face a scenario in which demand could lag behind supplies," said Nevyn Nah, refined oil products analyst at Energy Aspects. "Even Middle East supplies are also expected to rebound with the return of condensate splitters in Qatar and the UAE."

    According to Facts Global Energy, lower naphtha demand stems from a variety of reasons, such as high cracker maintenance in China and easing ethylene-naphtha cracks leading to lower cracker runs, particularly in Europe, resulting in more arbitrage cargo arrivals in Asia.

    In addition, the market is witnessing some switchover to LPG as feedstock, as the propane-naphtha spreads are to some extent favorable.

    "Naphtha cracks remain under pressure as higher supplies are met with lower demand," said Sri Paravaikkarasu, head of oil, East of Suez at FGE.

    "The coming months will remain a mixed bag. The weakness could persist for a couple of months as we have a new splitter coming online in Dalian in June, and Japanese crackers should commence maintenance turnarounds. However, we are bullish beyond that timeframe," she added.

    SUPPLY-SIDE FACTORS

    The CFR Japan naphtha crack against front-month ICE Brent crude oil hit the lowest level in seven months at $53/mt on May 25, before rebounding to $56.80/mt on May 31, data from Platts showed. The crack in May averaged at $58.34/mt, down 20% from the April average of $73.38/mt.

    Adding to the supply stream, India, as of now, is expected to export around 635,000 mt of naphtha for June loading -- higher than the typical monthly export volume of 500,000-600,000 mt, based on Platts calculations.

    Apart from Indian exports, rare volumes of naphtha have emerged from Southeast Asia.

    In a rare move, Indonesia's state-owned Pertamina issued a sell tender last week, offering 170,000 barrels of naphtha for June 1-30 loading from Tuban, which was most likely offered because of a scheduled refinery turnaround, market sources said.

    Since December 2015, Pertamina has been a net importer of naphtha, after it lost its net exporter crown in March 2015.

    Pertamina takes naphtha from Indonesian TPPI's Tuban facility every month for blending at its refinery to produce 92 RON gasoline. When the company has a refinery turnaround, the oil and gas firm is left with surplus naphtha, which is then offered for exports.

    Pertamina plans to shut its 120,000 b/d Dumai and 50,000 b/d Sei Pakning refineries in central Sumatra for 40 days of maintenance in July, taking a total 170,000 b/d of capacity offline.

    And in Malaysia, Hengyuan Refining Company issued a sell tender offering 24,000-48,000 mt of naphtha with 70%-78% paraffin content for loading from Port Dickson between August 1 and December 31, 2017. Hengyuan will have four-eight parcels to offer over the five-month period. Each cargo will be 5,000-6,000 mt. The tender closed on May 31 and has validity until June 7.

    This will be the company's first naphtha export tender after Shell sold its 51% stake at the 125,000 b/d Port Dickson refinery to Malaysian Hengyuan International Ltd., a subsidiary of Chinese independent refiner Hengyuan Petrochemical.

    WEAK INTEREST FOR CARGOES

    On the demand side, buying interest from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan remained largely stable.

    Petrochemical margins have narrowed, thanks to a sharp fall in ethylene prices this month. The spread between CFR Northeast Asia ethylene against CFR Japan naphtha fell from $763.88/mt on May 2 to $587.63/mt on May 31, Platts data showed.

    At the current spread, it remains profitable to produce olefins using naphtha. If the spread falls under $350/mt, it may not be economical to produce olefins, which could result in run cuts at steam crackers and lower naphtha demand.

    While import demand from most Northeast Asian countries has been fairly stable, demand for imported naphtha cargoes from China has been falling because of higher domestic production.

    China's naphtha imports in April fell 50.5% year on year to 122,000 b/d, according to latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics.

    Naphtha imports over the January-April period averaged at 158,000 b/d, down 24.4% over the same period last year.

    Chinese refiners, particularly the independent refineries in the northeastern Shandong province, have raised crude refining throughput and increased naphtha yield to 6.24% over the January-April period, from 6.11% over the same period in 2016. Naphtha output over January-April was at 11.392 million mt, up 5.4% from January-April 2016.

    "After a couple of months, naphtha demand should receive boost both in Asia and the Middle East as the ramp-up of Sadara cracker and the commissioning of PetroRabigh's aromatics expansion project should tighten Middle East balances. Reliance intends to commission its Phase II aromatic expansion project some time later this year," Paravaikkarasu added.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/singapore/analysis-unusual-export-offers-add-to-naphtha-27840267
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    Genel loses second co-founder as Rothschild steps down


    Genel Energy co-founder Nathaniel Rothschild has resigned from the Iraqi Kurdistan oil producer, the latest in a series of high-profile departures from the loss-making company.

    Rothschild's departure follows the resignations of chairman and co-founder Tony Hayward, the former BP chief executive, and of chief financial officer Ben Monaghan, a former J.P. Morgan banker.

    Although only a non-executive director Rothschild was influential as he still owns a stake of around 7.9 percent in the company.

    Genel on Monday also announced the departure of fellow board member Simon Lockett, head of the audit and nominations and the health and safety committees.

    "Today's news suggests that more substantial changes are afoot, as the ties with the past are broken," said analysts at RBC Capital Markets.

    New Chairman Stephen Whyte will take the helm on Tuesday from Hayward when the company holds its annual meeting.

    "The composition of the board will be a focus for the new chairman," a Genel spokesman said on Monday.

    The oil producer has been grappling with a steep reserves downgrade at its flagship Kurdish oilfield and the effect of weak oil prices on its revenues.

    Shares in Genel traded down 6.6 percent at 0912 GMT, underperforming the sector index which was down 0.3 percent.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/genel-energy-management-idUSL8N1J21JP
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    Dolphin pipeline running as normal despite political tension


    The Dolphin subsea pipeline shipping Qatari gas to the UAE is functioning without interruptions, despite the UAE and some other Arab nations severing their diplomatic ties with Qatar.

    Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, and the United Arab Emirates have cut their diplomatic ties with Qatar, citing the latter’s support terrorist organizations.

    In a statement on Monday, the Saudis accused Qatar of supporting „various terrorist and sectarian groups aimed at destabilizing the region including the Muslim Brotherhood Group, Daesh (ISIS) and Al-Qaeda.”

    However, according to Reuters, which cited unnamed sources, the offshore pipeline running from Qatar’s Ras Laffan to Taweelah in the UAE is functioning uninterrupted, despite the political tensions in the region.

    According to the operator Dolphin Energy, the 364-kilometer pipeline is the largest and longest gas pipeline in the Middle East. Its maximum depth underwater is 50-meters. The Export Pipeline transports 2 billion standard cubic feet a per day (scf/day) of refined methane gas from Qatar. Its design capacity is 3.2 billion scf/day.

    http://www.offshoreenergytoday.com/report-dolphin-pipeline-running-as-normal-despite-political-tension/
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    North Dakota oil industry shows signs of a rebound



    For much of last year, Jeep Punteney was a casualty of the global oil price crash that halted North Dakota’s petroleum boom.

    His career was on hold for seven months, while he picked up sporadic work in construction.

    “I put my résumé out and got into the same line as everyone else,” said Punteney, 42, who went to college for chemical engineering and has spent most of the past two decades working the oil patch.

    Now he’s back in the fields.

    North Dakota’s oil country boomed to unprecedented heights earlier this decade, transforming the state, beckoning legions of workers from Minnesota and rippling in other ways across the economy of the upper Midwest. Then, as swiftly as it erupted, it crashed, victim of steps by Saudi Arabia and other countries to boost their production.

    Prices dropped from around $100 a barrel in 2014 to $30 early last year, bringing big financial losses for companies that had invested heavily in North Dakota production and bankrupting some of them outright. Jobs vanished.

    Now there are strong signs of a rebound. Drillers are bringing rigs back. Some companies are scrounging to find enough workers, an about-face for an industry that shed almost half its jobs during the bust.

    “The industry is coming back,” said Monte Besler of FRACN8R Consulting in Williston, N.D. “I don’t think it’s as robust as we’d like it to be. But it is definitely improving.”

    The optimism remains tentative, as price and production levels would need to rise a lot more to rival the days of the boom. Newer fields in Texas and New Mexico are the hot spots in U.S. shale oil right now, drawing investment that might otherwise flow to North Dakota, the nation’s No. 2 oil producing state.

    Nonetheless, North Dakota players that survived the crash started getting more active last fall, when major oil-producing nations agreed to output cuts that pushed prices back over $50 a barrel. Companies have worked to boost productivity, getting leaner to cope with current price levels.

    Punteney is back at work supervising new well drilling sites for WPX Energy. What the past few years made clear is that the industry is at the mercy of oil prices.

    “When you work in the oil field, you work in a boom-and-bust world,” he said.

    Price dynamics

    Global oil producers extended their output cuts on May 25, but the price of oil indicates continuing uncertainty. The benchmark U.S. oil price closed Friday at $47.66, below the important $50-per-barrel mark.

    Oil inventories are still historically high, partly because U.S. oil production has risen sharply since last fall. And while OPEC and Russia — key oil playmakers — have indicated they’ll cap production for the next nine months, they could capitulate and produce full-out, driving down prices.

    What made the big difference in U.S. production, particularly in North Dakota, was the advent of the technique known as hydraulic fracking. Last year, the state’s oil production was more than six times what it was in 2008 — despite the bust.

    The adoption of fracking prompted companies to pour $30 billion into the region before the downturn. An oil rig is the epitome of a big-time investment: The 13-story, 275-ton movable, mechanical beasts cost about $50,000 to $70,000 per day to operate.

    There are now 51 drilling rigs in North Dakota — well below the high of 218 in December 2012 — but up from a low of 27 in May 2016.

    They run 24 hours a day, with workers usually putting in 12-hour shifts. As supervisor, Punteney must be constantly at the drilling sites nestled in western North Dakota’s rolling hills. His “living shack” is adjacent to a makeshift office, and he works two weeks on, two weeks off.

    On a recent spring day, the rig was drilling three new wells at a site that already hosts three of WPX’s 248 wells in North Dakota. Each of the six wells will reach down 2 miles, then veer horizontally for another 2 miles, the signature pattern of shale oil fracking.

    “With six wells, you have a spider web beneath you,” Punteney said.

    A native of Wyoming, Punteney started out in the oil business as a pumper — a grunt worker at a well site. Last fall, he was hired by WPX, a company that focuses on U.S. shale oil and gas production. WPX had five rigs operating in North Dakota before the bust, but then cut back to one. It added a second late last year after raising its capital spending budget. Other producers have been doing the same.

    With investment rising, oil field employment seems to have turned a corner this spring. In April, the North Dakota job sector that mostly includes oil and gas workers stood at 16,400, up 10 percent over the same month in 2016. April marked the second consecutive month of year-over-year increases in oil jobs.

    Meanwhile, online job openings were at a 12-month peak in April — and up 94 percent over a year ago — in “construction and extraction," which includes oil field employment in North Dakota’s four largest oil-producing counties, according to Job Service North Dakota. Active résumés for those jobs were down 52 percent over a year ago, indicating an imbalance between oil jobs and job seekers.

    “Companies are not keeping up in hiring,” said Ron Ness, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Council, a trade group. “We are probably looking for 1,000 employees in Williston, Dickinson, Minot and Stanley to fill the needs.”

    Ness said the improving U.S. economy and lower unemployment rates generally aren’t helping. “This will be a long-term problem because the entire labor market is pretty tight,” he said.

    The oil fields tend to attract nomads — men and women who travel for work but might keep their roots in another state. With an uptick in the overall economy, there are fewer of those willing to travel for higher wages when they can find well-paying jobs at home.

    For those at work in the oil fields, prospects are more encouraging these days.

    “I sure hope it keeps picking up — that’s what we are all here for,” said Edward Keith, a 35-year-old WPX worker from Ohio.

    “I see myself in this industry until I retire,” he said while manning the controls of a fracking operation in McKenzie County.

    Keith and four other workers sat staring at computer screens in the “data van,” a sort of command-post trailer at a “completion site.” Here, a drilling rig has come and gone, leaving six wells ready for hydraulic fracking. The place hums 24 hours a day with diesel engines mounted on 16 frack pump trucks — the power supply for the action below.

    Torrents of water and sand are pushed under high pressure through the wells — along with a dash of chemicals — creating cracks in shale rock formations. The grains of sand keep the cracks open, allowing oil and gas to flow.

    Shale oil operators have been pumping significantly more sand and water in recent years, extracting more oil per well. They’re operating more wells per “pad,” too — another productivity move. With more wells at a single site, oil field services can be centralized. For instance, fewer roads need to be built to individual sites, and a single water line can serve multiple wells.

    A decade ago, two wells per pad was a big deal. The six on the WPX site is common nowadays; one North Dakota operator has 18 oil wells on one pad. “This is the biggest single driver helping the efficiency and profitability in North Dakota,” said Besler, the fracking consultant.

    Operators are drilling with better cost efficiency, too. A decade ago, it took about 43 days to drill a well, compared with 13 to 18 days now.

    Break-even costs for wells in North Dakota’s four biggest oil producing counties fell significantly from mid-2014 through 2016 — over 40 percent in two of them, state data show. Meanwhile, productivity has soared.

    New production per oil rig has risen 38 percent in North Dakota’s Bakken oil field over the past year, according to data from Ernst & Young, which does oil industry consulting. However, total oil production on the Bakken had fallen 1.5 percent during the same time, the data show.

    http://m.startribune.com/north-dakota-oil-industry-shows-signs-of-a-rebound/426170091/

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    DOE grants non-FTA export permit to Delfin LNG


    The United States Department of Energy has authorized Delfin LNG to export up to 1.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day from the proposed floating LNG terminal offshore Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Delfin LNG, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Fairwood Peninsula Energy, plans to build a deepwater port in the Gulf of Mexico to liquefy domestically sourced natural gas for export.

    Due to its offshore location, the environmental review of Delfin was led by the Maritime Administration (MARAD) and the U.S. Coast Guard, DoE said in its statement.

    Delfin LNG has been authorized to export the LNG volumes for a period of 20 years to any country with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement (non-FTA).

    Earlier this year, MARAD approved the project would consist of four semi-permanently moored floating LNG vessels, each capable of storing 210,000 cubic meters of LNG and a production capacity of 3.3 mtpa of the chilled fuel each.

    Combined, the four floating LNG vessels will have a production capacity of 13.3 million tons of liquefied natural gas per year.

    MARADpreviously informed that the port operations are expected to commence no earlier than July 2019 with the commissioning of the first FLNGV. The port is expected to be fully operational by July 2022.

    http://www.lngworldnews.com/doe-grants-non-fta-export-permit-to-delfin-lng/

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    Good well prompts Halcon to take Delaware option


    US independent plans to sell Bakken non-op acreage to fund $11,000-per-acre deal in Texas

    A solid well result in the eastern part of the Delaware sub-basin of the Permian has prompted Texas-based independent Halcon Resources to exercise an option to acquire additional acreage in the play.

    The option, which Halcon signed as part of its $750 million entry into the Delaware earlier this year, allows Halcon to acquire an additional 6720 acres in Ward County, Texas, for $11,000 per acre, or about $74 million.

    http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1273664/good-well-prompts-halcon-to-take-delaware-option
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    Apache Sells Canadian Conventional Assets for C$330 Million


    Cardinal acquires 5,000 BOEPD of production

    Apache Corp. (ticker: APA) announced the sale of Canadian light oil assets today in a C$330 million ($244 million) cash deal with Cardinal Energy (ticker: CJ). Unlike many recent Canadian oil and gas property sales, these properties are not unconventional Montney or oil sands, but instead are conventional light oil.

    ~300 drilling locations available, 6% decline rate

    The assets sold are in two locations, one in central Alberta in the House Mountain area, and the second in the Weyburn/Midale area of southeast Saskatchewan.

    According to Cardinal, the properties will add about 5,000 BOEPD of production, with oil and NGL making up all production. In total, the assets account for 21.9 MMBOE proved developed producing reserves.

    The Alberta assets are about 30 miles from existing Cardinal properties, and are currently producing 2,150 BOEPD from the Beaverhill Lake formation. Anticipated future development involves fracturing existing wells and developing the 50 identified drilling locations.

    The Saskatchewan assets are under CO2 and water floods to enhance recovery, and currently have a very low 6% decline rate. Cardinal plans to expand EOR operations and conduct infill drilling on the 250 potential well locations identified.

    Funding from credit facility, share sale

    Cardinal will fund the acquisition with its credit facility and a financing agreement. This agreement involves selling C$170 million in shares to a syndicate of banks, which will then be sold to the public. The credit facility will cover the remaining $160 million.

    To reduce the cost of the transaction, Cardinal anticipates selling off royalty interests and fee title lands associated with the properties by the end of the year. The proceeds from this sale will be used to pay down the debt portion of the acquisition cost.

    Apache refocusing on Permian

    Apache is selling these assets to focus on its Permian assets, as the overall Permian basin will receive nearly two-thirds of the company’s budget this year. Apache is targeting significant growth from the Permian, where the company owns about 1,570,000 acres. Current production from the area is about 150 MBOPD, but Apache plans to nearly double this by Q4 2018.

    Cardinal focuses on low-decline oil fields

    Cardinal Energy is a Canadian E&P that focuses on developing oil-producing properties. Cardinal owns several properties in Alberta, the result of previous acquisitions. The company’s holdings are all conventional oil fields with very low decline rates, so this current transaction will be very similar.

    https://www.oilandgas360.com/apache-sells-canadian-conventional-assets-c330-million/
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    U.S. Gulf Coast unduly responsible for falling gasoline demand in 2017


    Even with Americans on track to drive a record number of miles this year, government data shows U.S. gasoline demand has been lackluster, and the South is to blame.

    If the Energy Department data is correct, the U.S. Gulf Coast is having an unusual influence on the overall decline in gasoline usage so far this year. But analysts and traders said the region's status as a global refining hub may be skewing both the national and regional numbers.

    U.S. gasoline demand in the first quarter was down 2.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the latest monthly data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The Gulf Coast accounted for 71 percent of the decline.

    Gulf Coast gasoline demand, which ranks behind the East Coast and the Midwest, was down 11 percent in the first quarter, EIA data showed.

    EIA uses "product supplied" as a proxy to measure U.S. gasoline demand. Product supplied measures the changes in volume of gasoline and other products at primary sources, such as refineries and storage terminals.

    The Gulf Coast is the U.S. refining hub, sending products all over the U.S. and the globe. This makes it the most difficult region in which to track the flow of products, analysts and traders said. This means, for example, if the EIA overestimates exports, it would underestimate U.S. demand.

    "The Gulf Coast has a lot of statistical noise," said Robert Campbell, head of oil products markets at consultancy Energy Aspects.

    Campbell said he was not certain the EIA figures will be revised upward down the road, but he said the Gulf Coast market is showing no evidence that demand is down. The federal agency puts out final numbers in about a year.

    "The cash gasoline market continues to be strong, refineries are running at high rates, and there's only been modest inventory builds," Campbell said. "There's no signs of distress, so that's telling."

    Gulf coast cash conventional gasoline traded on Friday at about 6.25 cents below benchmark futures largely in line with year ago levels. Meanwhile, the more liquid CBOB strengthened last week to a near three-week high.

    U.S. Gulf Coast refineries processed a record 9.45 million barrels of crude oil last week, according to the EIA, marking the third consecutive week above 9 million barrels. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories have remained near five-year highs, despite robust exports, EIA data showed.

    U.S. driving volumes in the Gulf Coast also suggest gasoline demand remained strong during the first quarter.

    Texas motorists log the second-most miles in the United States, trailing only California. Texas drivers traveled 1.9 percent more miles on the state's roads and highways through March than they did last year, according to the latest figures from the U.S. Department of Transportation.

    Overall, motorists logged 272 billion miles (438 billion km) on U.S. roads and highways in March, up 0.8 percent from a year earlier, the Transportation Department said.

    U.S. vehicle miles travelled were up 1.5 percent year-over-year through the first three months of 2017.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-gasoline-demand-idUSKBN18W03B

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    Alternative Energy

    California, China defy U.S. climate retreat with new cleantech tie-up



    California said it will cooperate with China on clean technology, emissions trading and other "climate-positive" opportunities as it bids to fill the gap left after President Donald Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris climate accord last week.

    The government of California and China's Ministry of Science and Technology would work together on developing and commercializing know-how on carbon capture and storage, clean energy, as well as advanced information technology that could help cut greenhouse gas emissions, according to a Tuesday statement.

    President Trump announced last week that he would pull the United States out of the 2015 Paris agreement on climate change, a move branded as "insane" by California governor Jerry Brown, who is visiting China this week.

    The decision to withdraw was seen to have handed the political and diplomatic initiative to China, which has continued to pledge its unqualified support for the Paris accord.

    Brown told reporters on the sidelines of a clean energy forum in Beijing on Tuesday that the failure of leadership from the United States was "only temporary" and said science and the market would be required to get past it.

    In an earlier speech, Brown criticized those still "resisting reality".

    "The world is not doing enough," he said. "We are on the road to a very negative and disastrous future unless we increase the tempo of change."

    Joint pledges by China and the United States ahead of the Paris talks helped create the momentum required to secure a global agreement, and included a promise by China to establish a nationwide emissions trading exchange by this year.

    Brown told Reuters last week that he would discuss linking China's carbon trading platforms with California's, the biggest in the United States.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-climatechange-idUSKBN18X068
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    Tesla In Hot Water After New Insurance Report


    AAA is raising premiums on Tesla vehicles by 30% after data showed that owners of Model S and Model X cars filed claims at abnormally high rates, and that those claims cost more compared with other cars in the same class, Automotive News reported.

    Tesla, of course, is disputing the insurer's analysis.

    "This analysis is severely flawed and is not reflective of reality," the electric-vehicle maker said in a statement emailed to Automotive News. "Among other things, it compares Model S and X to cars that are not remotely peers, including even a Volvo station wagon."

    AAA’ chief actuary said the insurer noticed the anomaly in its own data before confirming it with data provided by a second source, the Highway Loss Data Institute.

    "Looking at a much broader set of countrywide data, we saw the same patterns observed in our own data, and that gave us the confidence to change rates," he said.

    Other large insurance companies, including State Farm and Geico, said that claims data is a major factor in calculating premiums. But they would not disclose if their Tesla-owning customers would also see rates rise.

    The Highway Loss Data Institute report covered the 2014-2016 model years. Vehicles are divided into classes based on size, weight and competing models. The frequency and severity of claims are compared with overall average claims. The report found that the frequency, and cost, of claims related to Tesla vehicles was much higher.

    "Teslas get into a lot of crashes and are costly to repair afterward," said Russ Rader, spokesman for the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, which is the Highway Loss Data Institute's parent organization. "Consumers will pay for that when they go to insure one."

    Tesla said the Highway Loss Data Institute's system placed it with the wrong competitors. If it were compared with similar rivals, the company argued, its crash data would not stand out negatively.

    Tesla said the high rate of acceleration in both the Model S and Model X make it "false and misleading" to compare against vehicles such as the XC70, adding that the Model S also holds the lowest likelihood of injury, according to an evaluation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration.

    "We expect Model X to receive the best score for any SUV ever tested," a Tesla spokesperson said.

    An extraordinary metal that is vital to the electric car boom is facing a critical shortage. One small company has positioned itself to profit hugely from the coming price shock.

    Collision damage claims for large luxury vehicles are reported 13 percent more frequently than average, and those claims cost about 50 percent higher than average, the Highway Loss Data Institute said. The rear-wheel-drive Tesla Model S is involved in 46 percent more claims than average, and those claims cost more than twice the average, it said.

    In the large luxury SUV class, where collision coverage claim frequency is the same as the average for all vehicles and the cost of claims is 43 percent above average, the owners of the Model X file for claims 41 percent more often than average, and those claims cost 89 percent more than average, according to the institute.

    http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Tesla-In-Hot-Water-After-New-Insurance-Report.html
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    Agriculture

    Most potash shipped through Thunder Bay in a decade



    The potash market may be sputtering along with prices over half they were five years ago, but that isn't stopping a large volume of the fertilizer ingredient to be shipped through Thunder Bay, Ontario.

    While the majority of Canadian potash marketed and sold through Canpotex – the world's largest potash exporter – is moved through Neptune Bulk Terminals in Vancouver (and also Portland, OR) a smaller amount is shipped via bulk carriers through Thunder Bay, a port on the St. Lawrence Seaway.

    A report this week notes that Thunder Bay saw its largest monthly shipment of potash in May since April 2007.

    Grain shipments were also up in May by 100,000 tonnes, driven mainly by record levels of canola. Overall cargo shipments at the port are up 20% compared to the same time last year, to 1,169,998 metric tonnes.

    Those numbers are only likely to improve with one major potash mine in Saskatchewan recently opened and another possibly on its way.

    On May 2 K+S Potash Canada, a subsidiary of German giant K+S Group, officially opened its Legacy project, the first potash mine built in the province in more than 40 years.

    The operation, henceforth known as Bethune, is expected to produce 2 million tonnes per year once at full capacity; first potash is anticipated at the end of this month.

    http://www.mining.com/potash-shipped-thunder-bay-decade/
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    Precious Metals

    China's Shandong Gold Mining to seek loans to buy Barrick mine stake


    Shandong Gold Miningplans to apply for loans worth up to $1.26-billion via its unit to fund the acquisition of a stake in Barrick Gold's mine in Argentina, the Chinese precious metal producer said.

    The Chinese producer's unit Shandong Gold Mining (Hong Kong) would apply for the loans from offshore units of two Chinese state-owned banks, it said in a statement.

    Out of the total borrowing, $960-million would be used to fund the acquisition of a 50% stake in Canadian firm Barrick's Veladero gold mine, in Argentina, while the remaining $300-million would be allocated as working capital.

    In April, Shandong Gold Mining said it would acquire the stake in the Veladero mine owned by Barrick, the world's largest gold producer. Chinese firms have been seeking resources overseas to expand their global footprint.

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/chinas-shandong-gold-mining-to-seek-loans-to-buy-barrick-mine-stake-2017-06-02
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    Osisko Gold to buy metals portfolio from Orion Mine for C$1.13 billion


    Canada's Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd said on Monday it had agreed to buy a precious metals portfolio from U.S. private equity firm Orion Mine Finance Group for C$1.13 billion ($839.40 million) to expand its diamond, gold and silver asset base.

    Osisko will pay Orion C$675 million in cash and the remaining C$450 million in Osisko shares.

    The portfolio consists of 74 royalties, streams and precious metals offtakes and will result in Osisko holding a total of 131 royalties and streams, the company said.

    As a part of the deal, Osisko will be entitled to some production from the Renard diamond mine in Quebec, Brucejack gold and silver mine in British Columbia and the Mantos Blancos mine in Chile.

    Reuters had reported in January that Orion Mine was in talks to either sell or publicly list the portfolio.

    Maxit Capital LP, BMO Capital Markets, National Bank Financial and PricewaterhouseCoopers were Osisko's financial advisers.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/osisko-gold-assets-idUSL3N1J23I6
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    Russia's Polyus tests markets with London and Moscow share sales


    Russia's top gold producer Polyus will offer new and existing shares in a secondary share offering in both London and Moscow, it said on Monday, in a deal that will test investor appetite for Russian assets.

    Polyus delisted from the London Stock Exchange in late 2015 after Western sanctions over Moscow's role in the Ukraine crisis began to bite for Russian companies. However it returns to London, buoyed by an 11 percent rise in global gold prices this year and by a separate $887 million deal to sell 10 percent of the company to a Chinese consortium led by Fosun International.

    As part of its secondary share offering for 7 percent of the company's equity, Polyus expects to raise $400 million from the sale of new shares. Further proceeds from existing equity will go the company's controlling shareholder, the family of Russian tycoon Suleiman Kerimov.

    The company, listed on the Moscow Exchange with a market capitalisation of $9.9 billion and a free float of 6.76 percent, plans to use the proceeds from the planned share sale to repay some of its debt and finance projects.

    The Chinese deal had valued Polyus at $9 billion, or $70.6 per share, compared with 4,423 roubles ($78) per share at the market close on Friday. The shares were up 0.4 percent at 4,440 roubles on Monday.

    Other large Russian companies will be watching the Polyus offering with interest, hoping to gauge the likelihood of a robust return of investors that took flight after Moscow annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

    The first $500 million-plus offering on the Moscow market this year could be followed by an initial public offering (IPO) from En+ Group, which manages Russian tycoon Oleg Deripaska's aluminium and hydropower businesses, sources have told Reuters.

    State shipping company Sovcomflot is also expected to launch an IPO before long.

    Polyus, meanwhile, is looking for a successful share sale to boost funds after winning a licence in January for one of the world's biggest untapped gold deposits and as it prepares to start production at its large Natalka deposit in late 2017.

    In a separate statement on Monday, Polyus raised its production forecast to 2.35-2.4 million troy ounces in 2018 and 2.8 million ounces in 2019, having previously forecast 2.7 million ounces by 2020. Total cash costs will remain below $400 an ounce, it added.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-polyus-idUSL8N1J21SE
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    Base Metals

    Owner of $1bn cobalt project says rally is far from over



    Tight cobalt supplies will keep boosting the price of one of this year’s hottest commodities, according to  Eurasian Resources Group, which is developing an almost $1-billion project in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

    Cobalt jumped 71% this year on surging demand for the metalused in batteries for electric cars made by firms such as Tesla. It may rise another 60% to as much as $90 000 a metric ton in the next 18 months or so, said ERG CEO BenediktSobotka. He said clients are already asking to pay fixed prices for supplies from the mine, which isn’t due to start until late 2018.

    Demand surged after usage expanded from mobile phones to larger batteries in cars and homes, prompting concern supply won’t keep up. Sobotka’s view echoes that of Glencore’s billionaire chief Ivan Glasenberg, who last month said the electric vehicle boom is coming faster than expected. ERG plans to initially produce 14 000 t/y from its Metalkol Roan Tailings Reclamation project in the DRC and eventually leapfrog Glencore as the top producer.

    “Demand is remarkably strong,” Sobotka said in an interview in Moscow. “People are inquiring about lifetime offtake contracts” from ERG’s project for 2018-2019, he said.

    Cobalt, which rallied 37% in 2016, traded at $56 500 on Friday, according to Metal Bulletin. This year’s advance has far exceeded gains for most major commodities.

    While analysts such as those at CRU Group expect further price gains, Morgan Stanley last month said more supply from the DRC, where the bulk of production comes from, will start putting pressure on prices next year.

    ERG’s Sobotka isn’t worried, and sees any excess supply being “quickly eaten.”

    “Over the last 12 months the market participants have realised that there was a lot of dirty cobalt product that is produced using child labour in the DRC” and outdated technology, he said. “Big automotive corporations can’t just ignore this alarming problem anymore,” and that may support a tight market, he said.

    Speculative demand is also significant, partly because it’s hard to invest in battery producers, many of which are part of other firms such as carmakers, he said.

    To limit the impact of any electricity shortages at the cobaltproject, ERG is developing a large power project in Mozambique that will be able to supply the company’s DRCassets via neighbouring countries. The firm is conducting a feasibility study and aims to start construction in the next two years.

    ERG has at least $4.5-billion worth of projects under development and also owns assets in Kazakhstan and Brazil. While it’s involved in production of copper, aluminium and iron ore, Sobotka says he’s more excited about cobalt and chrome, which he calls the “next generation of commodities.”

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/owner-of-1bn-cobalt-project-says-rally-is-far-from-over-2017-06-05

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    Nickel facing a long and rocky road to price recovery



    Nickel touched a near one-year low of $8,700 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange (LME) last week.

    It has recovered a little to $8,900 this morning but that still makes it by some margin the worst performer among the major LME-traded industrial metals with a year-to-date decline of over 10 percent.

    And, if you believe Goldman Sachs, the stainless steel ingredient is going to stay at these bombed-out levels for a good while.

    This marks the collapse of nickel's previous bull narrative of mass mine closures in the Philippines. As that scenario rapidly recedes, nickel is once again facing a long war of producer attrition to rebalance supply with demand.

    BULL NARRATIVE IMPLODES

    As recently as March, LME three-month nickel was on a bull roll, trading above the $11,000 level.

    The market's exuberance was down to one woman, Regina Lopez, eco-warrior turned environmental minister in the Philippines.

    And then at the start of last month she was gone, having failed to win endorsement from the government's Commission on Appointments.

    Some smaller mines remain suspended. But most look set to continue operating with Lopez' replacement, former military chief Roy Cimatu, immediately adopting a more conciliatory stance.

    Philippines nickel production fell hard, by 36 percent in the first quarter of this year, according to the International Nickel Study Group (INSG).

    But that was as much down to a particularly heavy monsoon season as to environmental closures.

    BACK TO THE COST CURVE

    Not that China's NPI producers won't be feeling the pinch at these low prices. So will just about every other nickel producer.

    Cost-curve economics will replace Philippine environmental policy as the driver of supply rationalisation.

    The only thing is that nickel has been here before, most recently during the extended price trough that ran from late 2015 to the middle of 2016, when Lopez first grabbed the headlines.

    And it turned out to be much more price inelastic than expected.

    Some higher-cost operations did indeed exit the market, particularly in Australia and Brazil.

    Some, such as the Falcondo ferronickel plant in the Dominican Republic, exited but have since returned under new ownership. And others have all the while been ramping up production.

    Vale's Goro plant in New Caledonia saw its best operational performance in the first quarter of this year since the facility, a by-word for technical problems, was first fired up in 2011.

    Glencore's Koniambo ferronickel plant, another much-troubled mega-project also in New Caledonia, did the same.

    Both are still running significantly below nameplate capacity, meaning that Vale and Glencore have every incentive to continue raising production.

    It's instructive to compare the trends in mined and refined output over the last three years.

    The INSG estimates that global mined production fell by almost 23 percent over the 2014-2016 period, largely reflecting a slump in Indonesian output after its export ban.

    However, production of refined metal, including ferronickel, actually rose by 1.4 percent over the same period.

    LONG AND ROCKY ROAD

    None of which bodes particularly well for a return of bullish exuberance to this market any time soon.

    The underlying issue remains the same now as it was back in 2015-2016, the last time the London price traded consistently below the $10,000-per tonne level.

    This is a supply chain that is still living with the consequences of nickel's extraordinary bull run to over $50,000 in 2006 and 2007.

    It didn't stay there long but that price explosion caused the creation of a whole new supply stream. China's nickel pig iron production was a direct reaction to super-high refined metal prices.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/nickel-supply-ahome-idUSL8N1J23E4
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    Steel, Iron Ore and Coal

    China's quality watchdog says 57.84 mln T imported coal unqualified in 2016


    A total of 57.84 million tonnes of imported coal were found unqualified after tests in 2016, up 4.04% year on year, China's quality watchdog said in a white paper released in mid-May.

    The inspected coal totaled 195.73 million tonnes, down 7.79% from the year-ago level; while the value stood at $9.66 billion, decreasing 24.81% year on year, said the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine in the paper.

    The value of the unqualified imports declined 15.46% from the year-ago level to $3.06 billion, or 1/3 or more of the total inspected.

    The watchdog conducts tests on eight environmental-related items -- ash, sulfur, calorific value, arsenic, mercury, phosphorus, chlorine and fluorine.

    The unqualified imports that mainly failed to meet moisture, ash and calorific value among eight indexes that disagreed with contract terms, had not been returned or rejected after consultations between sellers and buyers, showed the white paper.

    Of the total 195.73 million tonnes of import coal tested, 0.97 million tonnes were incompliant with environmental rules and thus be returned back to the supplying country. All such coal was anthracite from North Korea.

    The paper said these batches of unqualified coal mainly come from Australia, Indonesia, North Korea, Mongolia, Russia, the Philippines and Canada.

    With unstable coal quality, 65.3% of imported coal from Canada was unqualified, followed by 61% for North Korea and 46.2% for the Philippines; below 30% for quality-stable Australia, Indonesia, Mongolia and Russia coal.

    The reasons behind unqualified imported coal included: unstandardized method of sampling, narrow range of quality specifications in contracts, restrictions on high-quality coal exports by some countries, unfavorable ways of trade settlement, change in moisture content impacted by weather as well as fake test reports.

    http://www.sxcoal.com/news/4556827/info/en

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    Indonesia sets June HBA thermal coal price at $75.46/mt, up 46% on year


    Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources set its June thermal coal reference price, also known as Harga Batubara Acuan or HBA, at $75.46/mt, down 9.9% month on month but up 45.64% from a year ago.

    The ministry had set the price for May at $83.81/mt, and for June 2016 at $51.81/mt.

    The HBA is a monthly average price based 25% on the Platts Kalimantan 5,900 kcal/kg GAR assessment; 25% on the Argus-Indonesia Coal Index 1 (6,500 kcal/kg GAR); 25% on the Newcastle Export Index -- formerly the Barlow-Jonker index (6,322 kcal/kg GAR) of Energy Publishing -- and 25% on the globalCOAL Newcastle (6,000 kcal/kg NAR) index.

    In May, the daily Platts FOB Kalimantan 5,900 kcal/kg GAR coal assessment averaged $69.60/mt, down from $74.92/mt in April, while the daily 90-day Platts Newcastle FOB price for coal with a calorific value of 6,300 kcal/kg GAR averaged $74.52/mt, down from $84.64/mt in April.

    The HBA price for thermal coal is the basis for determining the prices of 75 Indonesian coal products and calculating the royalty producers have to pay for each metric ton of coal they sell.

    It is based on 6,322 kcal/kg GAR coal, with 8% total moisture content, 15% ash as received and 0.8% sulfur as received.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/singapore/indonesia-sets-june-hba-thermal-coal-price-at-27840928
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    India's Adani backs go-ahead for $4 billion Australia coal mine


    India's Adani Enterprises gave final investment approval on Tuesday for its $4 billion Carmichael coal mine and railway in Australia's north, shifting the focus to fund raising for the controversial project.

    Adani, which hopes to secure a A$900 million ($670 million) government loan, said in a statement it had given "final investment decision approval" to build what would be Australia's biggest coal mine.

    "We are committed to this project," Adani Chairman Gautam Adani said.

    The Carmichael mine has faced years of delays amid opposition from environment groups who argue it will contribute to global warming and damage the Great Barrier Reef, leading some banks to rule out any role in funding.

    "Announcing an intention to invest is a far cry from having the finance to do so," said Julien Vincent, executive director of environmental finance organization Market Forces. Greenpeace Australia Pacific said the announcement was a "PR stunt".

    The project is located in the remote Galilee Basin, a 247,000 square-kilometer (95,000 square mile) expanse in the central outback that some believe has the potential to become Australia's largest coal-producing region.

    Adani said the project would create 10,000 direct and indirect jobs, with pre-construction works starting in the next few months. Coal from the mine will be exported to India.

    Queensland premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said Australia's third biggest state had been hit by a global resources downturn and Adani's decision would help mining firms.

    Adani's decision "is a vote of confidence not just in the Queensland economy, but in Queensland people", she said.

    However, one energy analyst said the huge project would drive down thermal coal prices if it was built, putting pressure on local rivals.

    "The Queensland government probably doesn't appreciate that they could lose thermal mines in Queensland for the sake of bringing in this one," said the analyst, who asked not to be named as he was not authorized to comment on Adani.

    The Northern Australia Infrastructure Facility, the federal agency that will decide whether to grant the government loan to Adani, was not immediately available for comment.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-adani-ent-australia-idUSKBN18X05R
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    China iron ore rises for second day on restocking demand


    Iron ore futures in China climbed for a second consecutive session on Monday, rising 2 percent, as recent rapid losses spurred restocking demand among steel producers.

    But a sustained drop in Chinese steel prices pulled the steelmaking raw material off session highs, suggesting any further gains may be limited. Shanghai rebar futures fell for an eighth day in a row.

    The most-traded iron ore on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed up 2 percent at 435 yuan ($64) a tonne, but off the session’s peak of 443 yuan. The contract slid more than 5 percent last week after hitting a six-month low.

    “The divergence between steel and iron ore has been pronounced in recent weeks; driven in part by steel mills easing back on restocking earlier this year,” ANZ analysts said in a note.

    “However, with prices back below $60/tonne it may have been low enough to entice traders back.”

    Iron ore for delivery to China’s Qingdao port .IO62-CNO=MB rose 3.3 percent to $57.79 a tonne on Friday, after touching a seven-month low in the prior day, according to Metal Bulletin.

    But traders say plentiful supply of iron ore could cap any upward momentum in prices.

    Imported iron ore at China’s ports stood at 136.55 million tonnes as of June 2, only down slightly from the previous week’s 136.6 million tonnes which was the most for the stockpiles since 2004, based on data compiled by SteelHome consultancy. SH-TOT-IRONINV

    Weaker steel prices may also limit Chinese steel mills’ appetite to replenish their iron ore inventory.

    The most-active rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended 3.9 percent lower at 2,939 yuan a tonne, just off the session’s trough of 2,938 yuan, its weakest since May 15.

    http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/china-iron-ore-rises-for-second-day-on-restocking-demand/
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    The hard-to-believe steel shortage that's unfolding in China


    The world’s top steelmaker may have a shortage of steel. China has a lack of rebar, according to iron-ore miner Fortescue Metals Group, which says a shortfall of the key product helps to explain a divergence between the price of the commodity it digs up with the alloy it’s made into.

    There’s a shortage of rebar, Fortescue’s CEO Nev Powersaid in a Bloomberg Television interview in Beijing on Monday, citing closures in China of some steel producers, especially operators of induction furnaces. Rebar, or reinforcement bar, is a basic item used to reinforce concrete.

    China makes half of the world’s steel, and in recent years it’s been more associated with excess production, soaring steelexports, and sinking prices. That pain has spurred the government – egged on by Group of Seven policy makers – to press on with shutdowns of outdated plants, promote consolidation and clean the air that’s polluted by smokestacks. Over the past year, the closure of i nduction furnaces, which use electricity, has been a focus.

    “Induction furnaces typically make rebar and as those furnaces are closed down, it’s created a shortage of rebar and the prices have gone up,” Power told Bloomberg Television. “The margins that are being made in rebar at the moment we don’t believe are long-term and as new production comes in, we’ll see those margins comes back to normal.”

    While iron has tumbled this year amid concerns about supply, as well as projections demand may slow in China, rebar by contrast has soared. That’s a divergence from the pattern in recent years when they’ve moved in tandem, with Shaw and Partners and Liberum Capital flagging the shift. Spot ore with 62% content was at $57.79 a dry ton on Friday, down 27% this year, according to Metal Bulletin.

    There are signs of a possible shortfall with nationwide stockpiles or rebar in retreat, although analysts say that the trend may now be easing as other producers boost supply. Inventories of rebar in China have shrunk every week since mid-February and are now at the lowest since December.

    'SHORTAGE OF REBAR'

    “The elimination of some induction furnaces has indeed led to a shortage of rebar in China,” said Xu Huimin, an analyst at Huatai Futures in Shanghai. “However, we may be reaching an inflection point as demand has started to weaken and supply is expected to increase.”

    Shifts in China’s policy on coking coal have also been behind the split between iron and steel, according to Power, who said he’s seen a “significant change” in the relationship between the two. When coal surges, as happened last year, mills can respond by using more higher-grade iron ore to boost efficiency.

    Iron-ore’s slump this year has come as supplies increased, including from top producers Australia and Brazil, with Vale SA beginning a four-year ramp-up of its biggest project S11D. In April, Australia’s government said it expects output from the biggest miners to top demand, hurting prices.

    Power cited stockpiles of ore held at China’s ports among factors that had hurt iron ore. “As the port stocks come down that will keep a lid on prices,” he said. “But once things return to normal, we should see it trade somewhere around where the global supply curve is.”

    http://www.miningweekly.com/article/the-hard-to-believe-steel-shortage-thats-unfolding-in-china-2017-06-05
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    China's key steel mills daily output up 1.1pct in mid-May


    China's key steel mills daily output up 1.1pct in mid-May

    http://en.sxcoal.com/
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    Italy backs ArcelorMittal bid for polluted Ilva steel plant



    The Italian government supports a joint bid by ArcelorMittal and Marcegaglia group for the polluted Ilva steel plant in southern Italy, the Industry Ministry said on Monday.

    Industry Minister Carlo Calenda has signed a decree backing the 1.8 billion euro ($2 billion) offer from the world's largest steelmaker and Marcegaglia for Europe's biggest steel plant by output capacity, the ministry said in a statement.

    Italy has been trying to sell Ilva, which is near the port city of Taranto, since 2015 when the state took full control of the plant in a bid to clean up the polluted site and save thousands of jobs in an economically depressed area.

    The commissioners running Ilva said last month the ArcelorMittal consortium had won the bidding but unions opposed the thousands of layoffs involved in its plan. A rival consortium led by India's JSW Steel raised its offer.

    Under the plan presented by the ArcelorMittal consortium, called Am Investco Italy, Ilva's total workforce, which includes two smaller bases in northern Italy, will be cut from more than 14,000 to eventually reach 8,480 by 2024, the ministry said.

    Up to 4,100 of those to be laid off will be eligible for state unemployment support. Am Investco has said it was open to trying to reduce the number of job losses in the near term, the ministry said.

    The next step in the sale process involves the environment ministry examining Am Investco's plans for cleaning up the site. Once the ministry issues its decree, expected during autumn this year, the deal must be approved by the European Union.

    Steel production will remain at 6 million tonnes a year during the clean-up of the site, which magistrates sequestered in 2012 amid allegations its emissions were causing abnormally high cancer rates.

    ArcelorMittal chief executive Lakshmi Mittal said in a statement that the company "will work with all interested parties to guarantee Ilva, its workers and the regions where it operates a better, more stable and sustainable future."

    By 2024, Am Investco aims to have boosted output to the full 8 million tonnes Ilva is authorised to produce, the statement said, using three of Ilva's original five furnaces. The plan also includes a pledge to invest about 2.4 billion euros in technology and environmental improvements.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ilva-italy-idUSKBN18W2KG
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    North American steel groups want stronger NAFTA rules of origin



    Steel trade groups representing Canada, the United States and Mexico said that any upgrade to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) should require that manufacturers use more steel produced in the region in their products.

    The rules of origin, which stipulate that products must meet minimum NAFTA-wide content requirements to be tariff-free, are seen as a sensitive area of discussion once negotiations to revamp the trilateral treaty kick off in August.

    "The three countries should agree to updated rules of origin and regional value content requirements that incentivize investment and job growth in the region," lobby groups representing the North American steel industry said in a joint letter.

    "In particular, rules of origin and regional value content provisions for steel-containing goods should ensure that North American manufactured goods are built with North American steel," said the letter.

    Under rules of origin, manufacturers must obtain a minimum percentage of components for their products from the three NAFTA members.

    Mexican officials have said that stricter rules of origin in some industries could be one way for companies in North America to use more regional content, supporting President Donald Trump's plan to create more U.S. manufacturing jobs.

    Mexico sends the vast majority of its exports north to the United States, and local officials view the trade agreement as a lynchpin of their economy.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-nafta-steel-idUSKBN18W2LL
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