They are at the mercy of opaque palace politics in Riyadh that few understand. Helima Croft, a former analyst for the US Central Intelligence Agency and now at RBC Capital Markets, says the only man who now matters is the deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.
The headstrong 30-year-old has amassed all the power as minister of defence, chairman of Aramco and head of the Kingdom's top economic council, much to the annoyance of the old guard. "He is running everything and it comes down to whether he thinks Saudi Arabia can take the pain for another year," she said.
The pretence that all is well in the Kingdom is wearing thin. Austerity is becoming too visible. A leaked order from King Salman - marked "highly urgent" - freezes new hiring and halts public procurement, even down to cars and furniture.
The question for Prince Mohammed is whether it is worth pushing his oil strategy to the limit, even to the point of rupturing Opec. "They want to prevent a horrible family feud breaking out into the open, but what will they do if countries threaten to revoke their Opec membership?" asked Dr Croft.
Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro, says his country will lay out plans for a 5pc cut in Opec production, trimming global supply by 1.5m barrels a day (b/d).
For months he has been in despair, protesting bitterly as the Gulf strategy cuts off half his funding and drives the Chavista revolution into its final agonies. Yet all of a sudden he is strangely cheerful.
Aggregate | Principal Amount of Second Lien Notes(1) | |||||
Title of Series | CUSIP | Acceptance | Early Tender | Late Tender | ||
6.25% euro-denominated senior notes due 2017 | XS0273933902 | $363.6(3) | 1 | $1,000.00 | $950.00 | |
6.5% senior notes due 2017 | 165167BS5 | $660.4 | 2 | $970.00 | $920.00 | |
7.25% senior notes due 2018 | 165167CC9 | $668.6 | 3 | $825.00 | $775.00 | |
Floating rate senior notes due 2019 | 165167CM7 | $1,500.0 | 4 | $600.00 | $550.00 | |
6.625% senior notes due 2020 | 165167CF2 | $1,300.0 | 5 | $610.00 | $560.00 | |
6.875% senior notes due 2020 | 165167BU0 | $500.0 | 5 | $608.75 | $558.75 | |
6.125% senior notes due 2021 | 165167CG0 | $1,000.0 | 6 | $577.50 | $527.50 | |
5.375% senior notes due 2021 | 165167CK1 | $700.0 | 6 | $570.00 | $520.00 | |
4.875% senior notes due 2022 | 165167CN5 | $1,500.0 | 6 | $565.00 | $515.00 | |
5.75% senior notes due 2023 | 165167CL9 | $1,100.0 | 6 | $567.50 | $517.50 |