Mark Latham Commodity Equity Intelligence Service

Friday 12th May 2017
Background Stories on www.commodityintelligence.com

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    Macro

    Sweeping Saudi spending cuts reduce budget deficit by 71%


    Saudi Arabia's budget deficit fell by 71 percent in the first quarter of this year, the finance minister said on Thursday, after the kingdom made sweeping spending cuts.

    The deficit dropped to 26 billion riyals ($6.93 billion) in the first three months following the cuts made as a result of the dramatic drop in oil revenues, Mohammed al-Jadaan said.

    "This is a very encouraging figure and clearly reflects our aim to achieve a balanced budget in 2020," he said.

    Saudi Arabia's budget deficit was initially projected at $53 billion for this year.

    This is the first budget report released by the kingdom, which earlier this month said it would begin issuing quarterly reports to boost transparency.

    Riyadh has moved to diversify its traditionally oil-dependent economy following the sharp fall in crude prices in 2014.

    Last year, it announced a "Vision 2030" plan aimed at developing its industrial and investment base and boosting small- and medium-sized businesses in a bid to create more jobs for Saudis and reduce reliance on oil revenue.

    In September, it froze salaries and reduced benefits for civil servants - who comprise the bulk of the workforce - as part of a package of austerity measures.

    King Salman restored those benefits in a royal decree last month.

    In October, the kingdom raised $17.5 billion in its first international bond offering.

    Saudi Arabia is also preparing to sell just under five percent of energy giant Aramco next year. In April, it cut taxes on oil companies in a bid to attract buyers.

    http://www.arabianbusiness.com/sweeping-saudi-spending-cuts-reduce-budget-deficit-by-71--673730.html
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    China launches emergency probe on banks to check risky lending: sources


    China's banking regulator this week launched emergency risk assessments of lenders' new business practices, sources told Reuters, as Beijing deepens its crackdown on shadow banking.

    Guo Shuqing, the newly-installed chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), has vowed to clean up "chaos" in the country's banking system. In cooperation with the central bank and other financial regulators, efforts have been stepped up to clamp down against shadow finance ahead of a key Communist Party congress in the second half of this year.

    The CBRC's latest investigation will probe how lenders are using proceeds from negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs), as well as their bond investments and outsourced investment businesses, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan said.

    The watchdog is also looking into possible violations of lending and investing rules, for example, by banks that invest in stocks via wealth management schemes or lend to their own shareholders, they said.

    China's shadow banking sector has exploded over the past few years, reaching an estimated 64.5 trillion yuan ($9.4 trillion) in 2016, according to Moody's, as banks use trust firms, brokerages and fund houses to channel deposits into risky investments, skirting lending and capital rules.

    More recently, smaller lenders have been aggressively raising money via NCDs, and then using the proceeds to make higher-yield, risky investments.

    The newly-launched assessments come after the CBRC sent a flurry of new policy directives last month aimed at eradicating regulatory arbitrage and other risky practices.

    Earlier this month, the Group of 20 economies' financial risk monitoring agency criticized Beijing for being slow in providing key financial data from China, leading to the delay in a report on the risks the world faces from shadow banking.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-shadowbanking-risks-idUSKBN18805T

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    Ambition to meet reality as China gathers world for Silk Road summit


    When leaders of 28 nations gather in Beijing next week for a summit to map out China's ambitious new Silk Road project, one question is likely to be on attendees' minds - what exactly is the Belt and Road Initiative?

    Proposed in 2013 by President Xi Jinping to promote a vision of expanding links between Asia, Africa and Europe underpinned by billions of dollars in infrastructure investment, the project is broad on ambition but still short on specifics.

    China has earmarked $40 billion for a special fund for the scheme, on top of the $100 billion capitalization for the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), many of whose projects will likely be part of the initiative.

    But with a confusing name, that officially refers to the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road, added to myriad economic and security risks, clouds hang over the plan.

    Despite aggressive promotion of the May 14-15 summit in China, including media carrying positive comments from Western leaders, some diplomats are suspicious about China's aims.

    "There's a lot of scepticism about China's plans. Yes it is the kind of infrastructure that sounds attractive for parts of Europe, but we all know this is about China gaining influence," said a senior European Union diplomat.

    One diplomatic source familiar with discussions on the forum's communique said: "The forum is downright glorification of Xi Jinping and One Belt, One Road", using the straight Chinese translation of the project's title.

    However, with Donald Trump in the White House pursuing an "America First" agenda, more countries may be pushing for inclusion in China's grand scheme.

    "Countries have actually been pressuring China to get an invite rather than the other way around," said a senior Asian diplomat, referring to the summit.

    China says that between 2014 and 2016, its businesses signed projects worth $304.9 billion in Belt and Road countries. Some of the projects could be in development for years.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-silkroad-summit-idUSKBN18631D
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    Noble Group predicts of $130m loss in Q1


    Commodity trader Noble Group has warned that it will record a net loss of around $130 million for the first quarter after 'dislocation' in coal markets, Financial Times reported on May 9.

    The dislocation had caused "the decoupling of prices of key indices, liquidity dropping significantly and the breaking down of correlation." said the company, but it did not give further details.

    "The group has taken measures to re-align its portfolio to mitigate against both the continuation and repeat of such adverse events," Noble said.
     
    The news will be a blow to shareholders who recently supported a 10-to-1 share consolidation.
     
    After falling by almost 80% between early 2015 and the start of this year, shares in Noble have dropped another 24% in 2017.

    Shares in commodities trader fell as much as 16.2% on May 11 ahead of the company's afternoon release of its first quarter results.
     
    Singapore-listed stock in the company had pared losses to be down 15.8% at S$1.09 in morning trade, near their lowest level for the year to date.
     
    Noble has faced difficulties during the commodity slump, including attacks on its accounting and the need to pay down debts.
     
    Noble has defended its accounting and said it is working towards a recovery. It raised $750 million from the sale of junk bonds in March.

    http://www.sxcoal.com/news/4555923/info/en
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    Odebrecht witness says Argentine spy chief received bribes: source


    A witness in Brazil's "Operation Car Wash" corruption scandal involving construction companies told Argentine prosecutors on Thursday that President Mauricio Macri's spy chief received bribes, a judicial source present at the hearing told Reuters.

    Former Odebrecht SA official Leonardo Meirelles' testimony comes as the company, which has admitted to paying bribes in 12 mostly Latin American countries, is striving to improve its image in various countries in which it operates by offering to cooperate with judicial investigations.

    According to the source, Meirelles told Argentine prosecutors via video conference that either Odebrecht or OAS Empreendimentos SA [OAS.UL], another Brazilian builder, had made several payments to Gustavo Arribas, head of Argentina's Federal Intelligence Agency, and the Brazilian justice system has the transaction receipts.

    "Meirelles confirmed the transfers, which he said numbered 10 or more, for a total amount of $850,000," the source said. "The transfers amount to the payment of bribes."

    Arribas has previously denied taking bribes or having any link to Odebrecht. The payments were alleged to have occurred in 2013 when he was in the private sector and a close friend of Macri, who was then mayor of Buenos Aires. Macri named him to his current position in 2015.

    Earlier corruption charges against Arribas were dismissed, but the source said prosecutors will ask to re-open the case due to the new evidence.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/argentina-corruption-idUSL1N1ID2A2
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    U.S. Inks Trade Deal With China Promoting Natural Gas


    The U.S. and China reached agreement to promote shipments of American natural gas that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said was part of a broader effort to begin reshaping the trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies.

    The agreement covers 10 areas where negotiators from the two sides have reached consensus, including agricultural trade and market access for financial services. By mid-July, U.S. beef producers will have broader access to Chinese markets, while America will move forward on allowing the import of cooked poultry from China, according to a joint statement announcing the deal.

    The statement didn’t appear to change access for Chinese companies to U.S. natural gas exports, but welcomed China to receive shipments and engage in long-term supply contracts with American suppliers. Ross said officials from Dow Chemical Co. gave assurances that increasing exports of natural gas wouldn’t harm the U.S. industry or consumers if sales remained less than 30 percent of total output.

    “This will let China diversify, somewhat, their sources of supply and will provide a huge export market for American LNG producers,” Ross told reporters at a White House briefing on Thursday, using an acronym for liquefied natural gas.

    The agreements, which grew out of a 100-day action plan announced during an April meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, and appeared to build on or repeat some commitments that China has already made. Still, they represented the first negotiated pact on trade for Trump, who campaigned on promises to get tough on China on trade before softening his tone as he’s sought cooperation on North Korea.

    ‘Gas Exports

    While Trump made the revival of America’s coal industry a hallmark of his campaign, his administration seems to be acknowledging the potential jobs bonanza offered by the two dozen applications under review to build LNG export terminals. Ross said a deal for coal exports to China wasn’t likely, given the far shipping distances. Gary Cohn, director of the National Economic Council, has voiced support for an LNG terminal in the U.S. Northwest that would ship gas to Asia.

    China imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas picked up last year after Cheniere Energy Inc. launched the first in a wave of new plants designed to liquefy and export abundant U.S. shale gas. American supplies accounted for almost 7 percent of China’s total imports in March, customs data shows. Chinese companies already have long-term contracts with non-U.S. suppliers for more LNG than domestic demand requires through at least 2023, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

    The Trump administration has given the go-ahead for a handful of proposed U.S. LNG ventures to ship their fuel to countries without free-trade agreements, such as China. Those projects need to secure long-term supply agreements to underpin their financing before construction can begin.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-12/u-s-reaches-deal-to-allow-exports-of-natural-gas-beef-to-china
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    Oil and Gas

    OPEC Raises 2017 Estimate for Supply Growth From Rivals by 64%


    OPEC boosted estimates for growth in rival supplies by 64 percent as the U.S. oil industry’s recovery accelerates, threatening the group’s attempts to clear a surplus.

    Production from outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will increase by 950,000 barrels a day this year, OPEC said in a report, revising its forecast up by about 370,000. The projection is four times higher than in November, when the group announced a production cut to try and re-balance oversupplied world markets. Non-OPEC nations pump about 60 percent of the world’s oil.

    Oil prices sank to a five-month low below $44 a barrel in New York last week on concern that the cuts by OPEC and 11 partners, including Russia, aren’t clearing the glut and that more supply is coming from U.S. shale drillers. While OPEC has signaled it will probably extend the cutbacks into the second half, the increased production outlook for competitors may fuel speculation their strategy has backfired.

    “U.S. oil and gas companies have already stepped up activities in 2017 as they start to increase their spending amid a recovery in oil prices,” OPEC’s Vienna-based research department said in the report. “In addition to the growth in the U.S., higher oil production is expected in Canada and Brazil.”

    The report echoed comments from officials such as Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak that prolonged action will likely be required when ministers gather on May 25.

    “Continued rebalancing in the oil market by year-end will require the collective efforts of all oil producers to increase market stability,” it said.

    The organization raised its outlook for U.S. production growth by 285,000 barrels a day to 820,000 a day. The number of drilling rigs operating in the country has more than doubled since May, data from Baker Hughes Inc. shows, as shale explorers emerge from a two-year rout buoyed by the initial price gains after OPEC announced its plan.

    Original Projection

    When OPEC introduced its 2017 forecast for non-OPEC supply last July, it had projected a contraction of 100,000 barrels a day.

    The report indicated that OPEC’s objective to reduce inventories to their five-year average remains some way off. While it noted that surplus oil held at sea diminished, stockpiles in the most industrialized nations increased from the fourth quarter by 31 million barrels to just over 3 billion. That’s 276 million above the five-year norm.

    OPEC members are still sticking with their pledge to reduce output, the report showed. Production from all 13 members slipped by 18,200 barrels a day to 31.73 million last month, with Saudi Arabia continuing to pump below its official target.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-11/opec-raises-2017-estimate-for-supply-growth-from-rivals-by-64

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    OECD commercial oil stocks are falling


    OECD commercial oil stocks are falling but were still 3.01 billion barrels in March - 4.8 days of demand above 5-year average

    @chris1reuters  
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    Here’s why OPEC might just let the deal on oil output cuts collapse


    Cartel’s ‘current strategy is not working,’ says ETF Securities’ Shah

    Oil traders largely expect the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to agree later this month to extend a production-cut agreement into the second half of 2017, but at least one analyst is very skeptical.

    After all, the “current strategy is not working,” Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at ETF Securities, wrote in a blog post Thursday.

    He said that the most “credible options” for OPEC’s next move would be to either agree on a deeper cut or let the deal collapse. “The latter options seems the most likely outcome.”

    OPEC members and some major non-OPEC oil producers agreed to reduce their collective output by 1.8 million barrels a day under a six-month agreement that began on Jan. 1.That pact is set to expire in June and OPEC is expected to make a decision on whether to extend it when members meet in Vienna on May 25.

    Strong compliance with the cuts helped oil prices CLM7, +0.15%LCON7, +0.10% climb in February to their highest levels since the summer of 2015 but year-to-date, they have lost roughly 10%.

    “The efforts of OPEC members with assigned quotas are being undermined” by growth in supply from OPEC members who don’t have quotas, as well as non-OPEC members who are part of the deal but aren’t sticking to it, and “rapid growth in supply from other countries, most notably the U.S.,” said Shah.

    U.S. crude-oil production climbed to 9.31 million barrels a day for the week ended May 5, up from 8.77 million barrels a day at the end of 2016, according to data from the Energy Information Administration.

    Meanwhile, in a monthly report released Thursday, OPEC raised its forecast for 2017 oil-production growth from countries outside of OPEC by more than 60%.

    OPEC “repeating the same strategy for another six months will do little to shore up oil prices,” Shah said.

    “OPEC nations have given up market share and have barely reaped any price gains,” he said. “Given that consensus expectations are for a simple deal extension (i.e. that is what is currently priced-in), following the status quo is unlikely to be met with a positive price response.”

    If OPEC is “serious about getting the market to balance, it will have to cut deeper in order to ‘shock’ the market and drive prices higher,” said Shah.

    But it would be a difficult to reach an agreement on a “bolder move,” with the “smaller and more financially-constrained members reluctant to give up more volume,” he said.

    And if the cartel can’t reach an agreement for a deeper cut, the “default option,” said Shah, would be to do nothing and let the deal collapse.

    And that’s exactly what he believes will happen. The meeting this month is likely to “surprise on the downside with a lack of agreement,” he said.

    Under that scenario, WTI oil prices could fall close to $40 a barrel, which he sees as the “structural floor for oil prices, set by the break-even price of U.S. shale-oil production.”

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-opec-might-just-let-the-deal-on-oil-output-cuts-collapse-2017-05-11
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    In Fight Against U.S. Shale Oil, OPEC Risks Lower for Longer


    When Khalid Al-Falih arrived at Davos in late January, the Saudi oil minister was exultant. The output cuts he’d painstakingly arranged with fellow OPEC states and Russia were working so well, he said, they could probably be phased out by June.

    Almost five months later, U.S. production is rising faster than anyone predicted and his plan has been shredded. In a series of phone calls and WhatsApp messages late last week, Al-Falih told his fellow ministers more was needed, according to people briefed on the talks, asking not to be named because the conversations are private.

    In their battle to revive the global oil market, OPEC and its allies are digging in for a long war of attrition against shale.

    "OPEC is now recognizing they need longer -- and potentially deeper -- production cuts than they have anticipated," said Jamie Webster, a senior director for oil at the Boston Consulting Group Inc. in New York.

    From the beginning, Saudi Arabia saw a quick one-off intervention: reduce production for a few months and speed up the recovery. The strategy had an option for a six-month extension, but Riyadh initially thought it wouldn’t be needed. U.S. shale, the plan assumed, wouldn’t recover fast enough.

    And yet, shale has defied the naysayers. By the time OPEC meets in Vienna on May 25, U.S. output will be approaching the 9.5 million barrels a day mark -- higher than in November 2014 when OPEC started a two-year price war. The rebound has been powered by turbocharged output in the Permian basin straddling Texas and New Mexico.

    Forced to adjust to lower prices, shale firms reshaped themselves into leaner operations that can thrive with oil just above $50 a barrel. Brent crude, the global benchmark, added 3 cents to $50.80 a barrel as of 1:04 p.m. in Singapore.

    Since OPEC agreed to cut output six months ago, U.S. shale production has risen by about 600,000 barrels a day, wiping out half of the cartel’s cut of 1.2 million barrels a day and turning the rapid victory Saudi Arabia foresaw is turning into a stalemate. Al-Falih said this week Saudi Arabia is now pushing to extend the cuts "into the second half of the year and possibly beyond."

    On Thursday, OPEC’s own monthly oil market report said that production from non-members would rise 64 percent faster than previously forecast this year, driven mainly by U.S. shale fields.

    So far, OPEC hasn’t been able to "cut supplies faster than shale oil can increase,"  said Olivier Jakob of consultant Petromatrix GmbH.

    To read a story on the revival of the U.S. shale industry, click here.

    Al-Falih and his OPEC allies have made some progress. U.S. crude stockpiles have started to drop and the amount of oil in floating storage is contracting. The International Energy Agency and banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predict a further contraction in stockpiles in the second half of the year.

    Yet, the cartel faces big risks. The most prominent is that extending cuts lifts the oil price high enough for shale to hedge again, as it did earlier this year.

    "The dilemma now for OPEC and their key non-OPEC partners Russia and Oman is that cutting to support prices risks stoking the embers of a shale fire storm," said Adam Ritchie, director at Petro-Logistics in Geneva.

    Increasingly, the oil market believes the real battle between OPEC and Russia, on one side, and shale, on the other, will take place in 2018, when an increasing number of observers predict U.S. production will flood the market as it did in 2014.

    "Risks are emerging to 2018 balances," said Martijn Rats, oil analyst at Morgan Stanley in London. "The U.S. is set up for strong supply growth next year, that could exceed one million barrels per day.”

    U.S. shale producers used the price spike that OPEC triggered earlier this year to lock-in revenues for 2017, 2018 and, in some cases, even 2019. With their financial future relatively secure, they started deploying rigs. Since the count of active rigs in the U.S. reached a low last, producers have added an average seven units per week, the strongest recovery in 30 years.

    The rig spree, coupled with efficiency gains, is yielding strong production growth. In the first quarter, EOG Resources Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Co., two of the largest U.S. shale producers, announced year-on-year output jumps of 18 and 19 percent respectively. Smaller companies, including DiamondBack Energy Inc., Parsley Energy Inc. and RSP Permian Inc., achieved 60 percent to 80 percent increases. A lot more is coming.

    "Our break-even oil price is $20 a barrel," Frank Hopkins, Pioneer’s senior vice-president, told an industry conference in London this week. "Even in a $40 world, in a $50 world, we are making good returns.

    According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, American crude production will surpass the 10 million barrel a day mark by late next year, breaching the record high set in 1970. The shale boom will propel non-OPEC output up 1.3 million barrels a day next year, effectively filling up almost all the expected growth in demand.

    "The supply and demand balance for 2018 looks very bad,” said Fared Mohamedi, chief economist at consultant The Rapidan Group in Washington. “That’s when the big fight is going to happen."

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-11/in-its-fight-against-u-s-shale-oil-opec-risks-lower-for-longer

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    BP fires up first gas fields in $12 billion Egypt project


    The BP Plc company logo sits on a sign outside the company’s headquarters in St. James’s Square in London, U.K., on Thursday, Feb. 28, 2013. BP Plc’s push to maximize profits and cut costs at the Macondo well was a “root cause” of the explosion that led to the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, a safety expert who studied the disaster said. Photographer: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

    BP has fired up two natural gas fields in the Mediterranean Sea near Egypt, the start of a $12 billion development expected to supply nearly a third of the African country’s gas in coming years.

    The British oil company began producing gas from the Taurus and Libra fields off the coast of Egypt eight months ahead of schedule, the company said Wednesday. Its fields are producing more than 700 million standard cubic feet of gas a day and 1,000 barrels of condensate, 20 percent more than anticipated.

    It’s the second of seven major projects the British oil company plans to turn on this year, part of an effort to lift its daily energy production by 800,000 barrels of oil equivalent by the end of the decade. In a statement, BP CEO Bob Dudley said these projects “demonstrate momentum and a return to growth across BP.”In Egypt, BP’s West Nile Delta development is expected to make up a quarter of the energy production it expects to bring online by 2020.

    Egypt’s growing population ballooned to 92 million late last year, pushing up energy demand in a country that only a few years ago suffered regular power blackouts because of a shortage of natural gas.

    By 2019, gas production from BP’s Egyptian fields could reach 1.5 billion cubic feet of gas a day, about 30 percent of the country’s current output, it said. The company began sending gas from the Taurus and Libra fields to Egypt’s national gas grid in late March, and it recently ramped up production to a stable level.

    Falling energy prices helped bring down the cost of supplies for the projects, BP said.

    “Thanks to a clear focus on efficiency and capturing market deflation, this complex project has been delivered with lower capital levels compared to project sanction,” said Hasham Mekawi, North African regional president at BP, in a statement.

    http://fuelfix.com/blog/2017/05/10/bp-fires-up-first-gas-fields-in-12-billion-egypt-project/
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    Rosneft’s $12.9 Billion Essar Oil Deal Delayed Over Debt Issues


    Russian state oil firm Rosneft is struggling to close its $12.9 billion acquisition of India’s Essar Oil Ltd because six of Essar’s Indian creditors have yet to approve the deal, sources close to the talks said.

    The state-run banks and financial institutions that are delaying Rosneft’s biggest foreign acquisition hold about $500 million of Essar’s debt, five industry and banking sources told Reuters.

    Kremlin-controlled Rosneft, which sees the deal as vital to expanding in Asia’s fastest growing energy market, had aimed to close the deal at the end of 2016. Now a June target for completion may be in doubt.

    “Tensions between Rosneft and Essar are running high,” said one of the industry sources, who like others asked not to be named.

    The sources said the acquisition was still expected to go through, but one of them said Rosneft had written to Essar threatening to change the terms of the deal, including to pay a lower price, if the dispute over debt was protracted.

    “The completion of the transaction was conditional upon receiving requisite approvals and satisfaction of customary conditions. The parties are working towards obtaining the requisite approvals to complete the transaction,” an Essar spokesman said.

    “We are hopeful that the deal will be completed in the upcoming few weeks,” he added.

    Rosneft Chief Financial Officer Pavel Fedorov told a conference call on Wednesday that the purchase was now expected to be completed by the end of June.

    The six institutions holding up the transaction are IDBI Bank (IDBI.NS), Punjab National Bank (PNBK.NS), Syndicate Bank (SBNK.NS), Indian Overseas Bank (IOBK.NS), Life Insurance Corp of India and non-bank financier IFCI Ltd (IFCI.NS), the sources said.

    The six lenders gave no official comment when contacted by Reuters.

    Another industry source said Rosneft had wanted to finalize the deal in early June at the St Petersburg Economic Forum, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin. But he said those hopes have now faded.

    Rosneft won a bidding war to buy Essar against Saudi Aramco, its biggest competitor in the oil export market.

    The deal will give Rosneft a 49 percent stake, with a further 49 percent split between Swiss commodities trader Trafigura [TRAFGF.UL] and Russian fund United Capital Partners. The billionaire Ruia brothers will retain a 2 percent stake.

    Russia’s VTB bank is acting as advisor on the transaction. It declined to comment on the hold up.

    “The process of closing the deal is in its final stages and is expected to conclude soon,” a spokesman for Trafigura said, while UCP declined to comment.

    CLEARING BAD DEBTS

    The deal is also valuable for Modi’s government, as it seeks to clear India’s $150 billion in bad debt.

    Essar Oil India owed about $5.5 billion to almost 30 Indian lenders. Apart from six, others have approved Essar’s transfer of ownership to Rosneft from its current owners Indian brothers Ravi and Shashi Ruia, banking sources said.

    The State Bank of India (SBI.NS), the country’s biggest lender, has given its no-objection to the deal, the sources said.

    https://www.oilandgas360.com/rosnefts-12-9-billion-essar-oil-deal-held-debt-issues/

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    Record Petrobras operating profit speeds debt reduction


    An aggressive turnaround helped Petroleo Brasileiro SA post a record operating profit in the first quarter and move ahead of schedule in reducing a debt burden that is the largest of any major oil firm.

    Petrobras, as the state-controlled company is known, reported net income of 4.449 billion reais ($1.42 billion), well above a consensus estimate of 3.773 billion reais, while improving cash flow and debt metrics. Petrobras lost a net 1.246 billion reais in the first quarter of 2016.

    Moves to increase output in some offshore fields, sell non-essential assets and keep expenses in check yielded the firm's best operating profit ever. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose 19 percent to 25.254 billion reais, beating the consensus forecast by 1.38 billion reais.

    Chief Executive Pedro Parente said the strong result was driven by recurring factors such as cost controls, putting Petrobras ahead of a timetable to reduce net debt to 2.5 times annual EBITDA by the end of next year, from a ratio of 3.2 at the end of March.

    "If we get to 2.5 (times EBITDA) before the end of 2018, that doesn't mean we're going to stop (reducing debt)," Parente told journalists. "We want to keep cutting so we can lower our interest payments."

    A sharp drop in asset impairments also contributed to earnings as Petrobras moved on from a bribery scheme in which the book values of several projects were artificially inflated.

    Free cash flow, the money left for holders of bonds and shares after operating and financial expenses, rose 12 percent from the fourth quarter to 13.368 billion reais.

    "It was a strong beat across the board that brings about a tipping point for the case," said Pedro Albuquerque, who runs the Cosmos Capital hedge fund and has a position in Petrobras. "Parente still has room to keep cutting costs, so margins look sustainable."

    Parente said the sale of natural gas pipeline NTS, which generated 6.7 billion reais in the second quarter, also boosted the odds of paying dividends for the first time since 2014.

    To be sure, Parente still faces challenges such as oil prices near decade lows, a corruption scandal that highlighted governance flaws, and losses incurred over many years because of government-mandated fuel subsidies and money-losing investments.

    Net revenue slipped 3 percent from a year earlier to 68.365 billion reais, about 1 percent below the consensus estimate.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-petrobras-results-idUSKBN187352
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    China cuts retail gasoline, diesel prices - state planner


    China's state planner will lower gasoline retail prices by 250 yuan ($36.22) per tonne and diesel fuel by 235 yuan per tonne from Friday, the National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on its website on Thursday.

    The decrease is the fourth and the biggest so far this year as crude oil prices continued to drift lower.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/chinia-fuel-prices-idUSB9N1IA00G
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    Dutch TTF natural gas hub now the 'Henry Hub for Europe': Flame panel


    The Dutch TTF natural gas hub has now become the European benchmark for longer-term contracts, with its dominance over other European hubs only expected to increase in the future, a panel discussion at the Flame conference in Amsterdam said Thursday.

    "It is becoming a global link, a Henry Hub for Europe... TTF will lead the way," said Patrick Barouki, head of gas trading & origination at Uniper Global Commodities. "There have been occasions when the entire move on the TTF can be put down to forex movements," with the increasing link of European pricing to US LNG, which is priced in US dollars.

    "The TTF is the real market price. The NBP was the leader, TTF took over," said Didier Magne, head of Gas Europe at TrailStone. "TTF is the only place you can hedge the US LNG into Europe," Magne added, citing that liquidity on the further-out NBP seasons is poor compared to liquidity on the TTF Calendar Year contracts.

    "TTF has turned out to be the benchmark hub, especially on the curve," said Gottfried Steiner, CEO of Central European Gas Hub. "People are happy with the TTF, it is the most widely used price index."

    In a separate presentation, Thierry Bros -- senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies -- said that "the TTF will become even more dominant compared to the UK," in the wake of Brexit, which he called a "great opportunity for the European gas industry due to more volatility in the price."

    SPAIN, UKRAINE

    Barouki said that the Spanish PVB hub was "quite exciting" with a "a large pick-up in liquidity over the past 12 months," on the back of within- day/day-ahead trading allied with new balancing rules.

    "The [French] TRS has been a hindrance," Barouki said, as well as expensive regasification costs, however, he said that "over the next years, Spain could develop a major role for Europe."

    "The further away you are geographically, the less influence TTF becomes," said Steiner, citing arbitrage opportunity for market participants in southern Europe given the high prices seen in Spain, France, and Italy this winter compared to northwest Europe.

    On a potential Ukrainian gas hub, Magne said that he was "very optimistic" and that "huge progress" had been made by the Ukrainian government to facilitate the development of a hub as the country tries to reduce reliance on Russian gas.

    However, the panel cited expensive entry costs as a hindrance and that market participants were not seeking access to underground gas storage capacity.

    "Entry costs are Eur0.70/MWh into Ukraine, three times normal entry costs," Magne said. "It kills any advantage, just going in and out costs more than the most expensive storage in TTF."

    Barouki said that the high entry costs make it "impossible to commercially use it."

    As for access to Ukraine's 31 Bcm of storage capacity, Magne said that "Europe is over-engineered already, you don't need the storage."

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/natural-gas/amsterdam/dutch-ttf-natural-gas-hub-now-the-henry-hub-for-26733755

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    Mercuria warns of undue impact of derivatives on dated Brent oil price

    Mercuria warns of undue impact of derivatives on dated Brent oil price

    Trading in the North Sea crude oil physical market has seen a boost from a growing number of participants, but trader Mercuria warned on Thursday that more financial players meant derivatives could have an unduly large impact on the setting of the dated Brent benchmark price.

    Dated Brent, which governs around two-thirds of the world's oil trades, is set using prices of physical barrels of four streams of North Sea crude, Brent itself, Forties, Ekofisk and Oseberg (BFOE) and a series of derivative rates.

    Kurt Chapman, head of crude trading at Mercuria, a major player in both the physical and "paper" North Sea markets, said he welcomed the additional liquidity and vibrancy that a broader spectrum of market participants brought to the market, but said increased "financialisation" was not without consequence.

    "The liquidity is appreciated, but we need to make sure we retain the robustness of the process," he said.

    The pool of market players in the North Sea ranges from oil producers such as BP, Shell or Total, to traders such as Mercuria itself or Trafigura, as well as a range of more pure financial traders.

    Market participants bid and offer cargoes of 600,000 barrels each traded on a platform run by pricing agency S&P Global Platts, known as "the window", and the lowest-priced crude will then set the daily price of dated Brent.

    Mercuria is one of the world's largest traders of physical commodities. The company, which is based in Switzerland, traded 2.1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2016.

    This compares with 7 million bpd of crude and products traded by rival Vitol last year.

    To manage price risk, traders use swaps such as contracts for difference (CFDs) to hedge cargoes, but not all participants in the North Sea derivatives market buy and sell physical barrels.

    "Right now if you look at the Brent benchmark, in the window, there are physical bid and offers on the screen, fine, it's still a physical BFOE product," he said, adding that some derivatives eventually resulted in physical delivery," Chapman said during a panel discussion at the annual S&P Global Platts Crude Conference.

    "The link between the two, the dated (price) and the BFOE (paper market) is actually a financial product, which are CFDs that are traded on the screen, more actively almost, by financial funds, 'curve shapers', or 'strippers', as we call them, who are trying to arbitrage opportunities between other financial products and they are setting a very significant portion of what ultimately becomes the dated Brent quotation."

    The North Sea market, which is essentially backed by just 1 million barrels per day of supply, can be volatile and at times, just a handful of players will control a proportionally large number of barrels that they may need to service their own refineries or provide to customers, which in turn can create a temporary liquidity vacuum.

    Financial players in the CFD market can accumulate large speculative positions that are never intended to result in physical delivery, but can have a knock-on effect on the price of a barrel of oil.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-nsea-trading-idUSKBN1871RF
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    Turn So/So Shale Wells into High Performers with Refracking

    Turn So/So Shale Wells into High Performers with Refracking

    Hold that decline curve!

    Researchers at Los Alamos National Laboratory have done “extensive data mining” and analysis of 20,000 shale gas wells. In a paper published in the journal Applied Energy titled “The shale gas revolution: Barriers, sustainability, and emerging opportunities”,

    Los Alamos researchers say that refracking existing wells with new technology can transform those wells from “diminished producers” (so/so wells) into “high-performers” long after the wells had supposedly hit peak production.

    “We hypothesize that manipulating tail production could re-revolutionize shale gas extraction
    ,” said lead author of the study, Richard Middleton.

    Refracking eliminates the cost of drilling a new bore hole, and provides a smaller environmental footprint.

    http://marcellusdrilling.com/2017/05/turn-soso-shale-wells-into-high-performers-with-refracking/

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    WildHorse Ups Eagle Ford Stake with $625 Million Purchase from Anadarko, KKR


    $625 million Eagle Ford acreage acquisition makes WildHorse the second largest Eagle Ford player—for one fifth the price of Permian acreage

    WildHorse Resource Development (ticker: WRD) today announced the purchase of 111,000 net acres in the Eagle Ford from Anadarko Petroleum (ticker: APC) and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co (ticker: KKR).

    In total WildHorse will pay $625 million for these properties. The deal is to be paid with $556 million cash to Anadarko and 6.3 million shares of WRD common stock to KKR.

    Values the oil and wet gas focused acreage at $5,600/acre

    The properties acquired are very close to existing WildHorse acreage, in the northern section of the Eagle Ford. Most acreage is in the oil window, but the southeast portion produces wet gas and condensate. In total, the properties are currently producing 7.6 MBOEPD, with proved developed producing reserves of 22.9 MMBOE. The $625 million purchase price equates to $5,600/acre, or $3,300/acre after adjusting for production.

    This is far below the $30,000/acre or more often seen in recent Permian basin deals.

    Most recent in series of transactions

    This acquisition is the most recent in a series of purchases the company has made, establishing itself as a major player in the northern Eagle Ford. WildHorse’s acquisitions since 2015 have left the company with 385,000 net acres in the area, second only to EOG in Eagle Ford holdings. Pro forma to the acquisition, WildHorse produced 19.1 MBOEPD from its Eagle Ford properties, with 88% liquids.

    Third generation frac design in the Eagle Ford yielding 55%+ IRRs

    WildHorse has a new completion design that the company can use to develop its new acreage, its third generation of frac designs. Wells using this design typically outperform the company’s 91 BOE/ft. type curve, with recently drilled wells significantly outperforming. The company reports that its third generation wells yield IRRs of 55% or more, with the best wells approaching 140%. This new frac generation will be put to good use, as the acquisition adds 711 net locations where the 91 BOE/ft. type curve applies.

    Carlyle to own 24% of the pro forma company

    WildHorse will fund the cash portion of the acquisition through its credit facility and preferred stock. A total of $121 million will be provided by the company’s revolving credit facility, while the remaining $435 million will be funded by the Carlyle Group. In return the Carlyle Group, which currently has no ownership in WildHorse, will receive Series A Perpetual Convertible Preferred Stock. This preferred stock will pay a dividend rate of 6% per year, payable in kind, and may be converted to common stock in one year. Assuming full conversion, this gives the Carlyle group 23.8% ownership of the pro forma company. The transaction is expected to close around June 30.

    WildHorse also reported first quarter results today, showing net earnings of $20.3 million, or $0.22 per share. First quarter highlights include:

    Increased average daily production by 18% to 17.6 MBoe/d for the first quarter 2017 compared to 14.9 MBoe/d for the first quarter 2016
    Increased Net Income to $20.3 million for the first quarter 2017 compared to a Net Loss of $14.2 million for the first quarter 2016. Increased Adjusted Net Income(1) to $0.1 million for the first quarter 2017 compared to a Net Loss of $13.7 million for the first quarter 2016
    Increased Adjusted EBITDAX(1) by 95% to $34.6 million for the first quarter 2017 compared to $17.7 million for the first quarter 2016
    Issued $350 million in senior notes due 2025 at 6.875% in February 2017
    In early March 2017, WRD brought online its first Burleson North well and one of the strongest wells to date in the East Texas Eagle Ford, the Paul 134 #2H, with an IP-30(2) of 1,035 Boe/d (93% oil) on a 5,363’ lateral. When normalized for downtime and a 6,500’ lateral, the IP-30 is 1,321 Boe/d
    In late March 2017, WRD brought online the Altimore #1H with an IP-30(2) of 1,048 Boe/d (84% oil) on a 6,435’ lateral and the Jackson #1H with an IP-30(2) of 958 Boe/d (85% oil) on a 6,297’ lateral

    https://www.oilandgas360.com/wildhorse-ups-eagle-ford-stake-625-million-purchase-anadarko-kkr/

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    Painted Pony Reports Increased Credit Facilities and First Quarter 2017 Financial and Operating Results


    Painted Pony Petroleum Ltd.  is pleased to announce increased credit facilities and first quarter 2017 financial and operating results.  The first quarter was notable for the announcement of the proposed strategic acquisition of UGR Blair Creek Ltd. through a share purchase agreement whereby Painted Pony agreed to acquire all of the issued and outstanding shares of UGR (“UGR Acquisition“), subject to shareholder approval on May 11, 2017 at the annual general and special meeting of Painted Pony shareholders.

    FIRST QUARTER 2017 HIGHLIGHTS:

    Entered into an agreement to increase credit facilities to $500 million conditional upon closing of the UGR acquisition, including available credit facilities of $400 million and a development line of $100 million, which becomes available in stages of $50 million by October 31, 2017 and $50 million by April 30, 2018, subject to borrowing base review at those dates;
    Announced the planned expansion of Painted Pony’s Montney assets through the proposed UGR Acquisition, which will add average daily production of 51 MMcfe/d (8,500 boe/d) based on field estimates, Proved plus Probable reserves of 2.0 Tcfe (325.1 MMboe), 108 net sections of land, and 105 MMcf/d of owned natural gas processing capacity;
    Generated net income for the first quarter of 2017 of $56.9 million compared to a net loss of $2.2 million in the first quarter of 2016, and income before taxes of $8.6 million, excluding the unrealized gain on commodity risk management contracts, compared to a $1.3 million loss before taxes during the first quarter of 2016;
    Increased production by 116% to 215.3 MMcfe/d (35,878 boe/d), in-line with previously released guidance, compared to 99.6 MMcfe/d (16,601 boe/d) during the first quarter of 2016;
    Increased liquids production by 270% to 3,149 bbls/d or 9% of total production volumes, compared to 852 bbls/d or 5% of total production volumes in the first quarter of 2016;
    Received an average natural gas price of $2.87/Mcf, which represented a 7% premium to the AECO daily spot price, compared to a 12% discount during the first quarter of 2016;
    Increased funds flow from operations by 226% to $24.8 million compared to $7.6 million during the first quarter of 2016;
    Reduced operating costs by 30% to $0.62/Mcfe compared to $0.88/Mcfe during the first quarter of 2016, and;
    Decreased general and administrative (“G&A“) expenses by 37% to $0.17/Mcfe compared to $0.27/Mcfe during the first quarter of 2016.

    SUBSEQUENT EVENT

    On April 5, 2017 Painted Pony closed an equity financing whereby the Corporation issued a total of 19,820,000 common shares (the “Offering“) in the capital of the Company (“Common Shares“) at a price of $5.60 per Common Share for net proceeds of $106 million.

    UGR ACQUISITION

    Upon closing, the UGR Acquisition will be a strategic expansion of Painted Pony’s world-class Montney project in NEBC. The Corporation’s Montney land position will increase by 52% to 314 net sections (201,009 net acres at an average 94% working interest) in one of the most productive areas of the Montney in British Columbia. Several of Painted Pony’s most prolific Montney wells were drilled on the Daiber area lands that are either contiguous with UGR acreage or on lands held jointly with UGR. The UGR Acquisition includes 197 net Proved plus Probable drilling locations which will complement the Painted Pony inventory and are expected to drive near-term growth in the Corporation’s proved developed producing reserves.

    http://boereport.com/2017/05/10/painted-pony-reports-increased-credit-facilities-and-first-quarter-2017-financial-and-operating-results/
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    Enbridge expects adjusted profit to rise on Spectra deal


    Enbridge Inc, Canada's largest pipeline company, forecast a big rise in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes this year, following its acquisition of smaller rival Spectra Energy Corp.

    Enbridge said last September it would buy Spectra, then valued at $28 billion, to create the largest energy infrastructure company in North America.

    The deal, which closed on Feb.27, highlighted the pressure on pipeline companies to merge as they grapple with over-capacity and sliding tariffs.

    Calgary, Alberta-based Enbridge, which reported a lower-than-expected profit on Thursday, said it expects adjusted profit before interest and taxes of C$7.2 billion ($5.25 billion) to C$7.6 billion in 2017, much higher than the C$4.7 billion it earned last year.

    However, the company said it expects available cash flow from operations to fall to C$3.60 to C$3.90 per share this year, from C$4.08 per share in 2016.

    Weak earnings from Enbridge's liquids pipeline business weighed on profit in the first quarter ended March 31.

    Adjusted earnings in the unit fell 10 percent to C$970 million in the quarter.

    Net earnings attributable to shareholders fell 47 percent to C$638 million, or 54 Canadian cents per share.

    Excluding a C$416 million derivative gain and other one-time items, adjusted profit was 57 Canadian cents. The analysts' average estimate was 62 Canadian cents, according to Thomson Reuters

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-enbridge-inc-results-idUSKBN1871E3
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    Alternative Energy

    German Sun King's SolarWorld to file for insolvency


    Germany's SolarWorld, once Europe's biggest solar power equipment group, said on Wednesday it would file for insolvency, overwhelmed by Chinese rivals who had long been a thorn in the side of founder and CEO Frank Asbeck, once known as "the Sun King".

    SolarWorld was one of the few German solar power companies to survive a major crisis at the turn of the decade, caused by a glut in production of panels that led prices to fall and peers to collapse, including Q-Cells, Solon and Conergy.

    SolarWorld was forced to restructure and avoided insolvency thanks to a debt-for-equity swap and the support of Qatar, which took a 29 percent stake in the group four years ago through Qatar Solar S.P.C.

    A renewed wave of cheap Chinese exports, caused by reduced ambitions in China to expand solar power generation, was too much to bear for the group, which made its last net profit in 2014.

    "Due to the ongoing price erosion and the development of the business, the company no longer has a positive going concern prognosis, is therefore over-indebted and thus obliged to file for insolvency proceedings," SolarWorld said in a statement on Wednesday.

    SolarWorld, which earlier this year announced staff cuts after reporting increased losses, said it would immediately file for insolvency and that it was assessing whether affiliated companies would also have to do the same.

    Asbeck, 57, still holds a 20.85 percent in the group which he founded in 1998 and within 10 years had grown to be one of the world's three biggest solar power companies.

    Known as the Sun King for his success and brashness, Asbeck famously bid for German carmaker Opel in 2008 and was also later instrumental in drumming up support against what he saw as unfair Chinese competition.

    "SolarWorld has led the fight against illegal price dumping in the United States and Europe. This dumping has further intensified, however," Asbeck said in a statement on Wednesday. "This is a bitter step for SolarWorld, the management board and staff and also for the solar industry in Germany."

    Germany used to be the world's biggest market for solar panels, with demand driven by generous government support that provided business for panel makers around the world, including Asia and the United States.

    Through the group's U.S. unit Asbeck pushed for import tariffs on Chinese panels, arguing that low labor costs and local government support gave his Chinese rivals an unfair advantage.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-solarworld-bankruptcy-idUSKBN1862MN

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    Tesla starts taking orders for premium solar roofs


    Tesla Inc on Wednesday began taking orders for its solar roof tiles, a cornerstone of Elon Musk's strategy to sell a fossil-fuel-free lifestyle under the brand name of its luxury electric vehicles.

    Tesla said the product, which generates solar energy without the need for traditional rooftop panels, will be pricier than a conventional roof but will look better and ultimately pay for itself through reduced electricity costs.

    The solar roof tiles were unveiled in October as Musk sought to convince shareholders of the benefits of combining his electric vehicle maker with SolarCity, the solar installer run by his cousins.

    Tesla acquired SolarCity in November, and has been working to remake a money-losing company that was selling traditional solar systems into a premium energy brand. To date, other companies have had little market success with attempts to incorporate solar technology directly into roof tiles. It remains unclear whether the products will appeal to consumers as much as Tesla's electric vehicles do.

    To get in line for a solar roof, homeowners must put down a $1,000 deposit via Tesla's website. There, they can also calculate the estimated upfront cost of a solar roof.

    A 1700-square-foot roof in Southern California, with half the roof covered in "active" solar tiles, would cost about $34,300 after a federal tax credit, according to the calculator. Tesla estimates such a roof could generate $76,700 of electricity over 30 years.

    The company said its solar roofs would cost between 10 and 15 percent less than an ordinary new roof plus traditional solar panels.

    But Jim Petersen, chief executive of PetersenDean Inc, which installs about 30,000 new roofs plus solar a year, estimated that a 1700-square-foot roof with new solar panels, including the tax credit, would cost about $22,000, well below the Tesla website's estimate. Costs vary depending on roof type.

    Glass tiles will be available in the United States later this year, beginning with gray smooth glass and black textured glass versions, Tesla said. Slate and Tuscan styles will be introduced in 2018. Overseas markets will receive the products next year.

    Tesla said it expects the product to be popular in locations beyond where its SolarCity subsidiary currently operates, and plans to expand installation crews accordingly.

    Tesla will manufacture the tiles at its solar factory in Buffalo, New York. Production will start "very slowly," Musk told reporters on a conference call, adding he expects robust demand.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-solar-idUSKBN18629Q

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    Precious Metals

    Driller says past quarter is 'most promising start to any fiscal year ever'

    Driller says past quarter is 'most  promising  start  to  any  fiscal  year  ever'

    West African based drilling company, Geodrill (TSE:GEO), says Q1 revenue increased by 20% and metres drilled were up by 7% compared to Q1 2016.

    Geodrill stock was up 1.18% to 2.15. It's 52-week range is $1.10 to $2.82.

    “Building on a highly successful 2016, this year has begun in earnest with significant multi‐rig contracts with top tier producers following a successful bidding season," says Dave Harper, President and CEO of Geodrill Limited.

    The company says it invested $1.8M into CAPEX. The company won new contracts with Ashanti Gold in Ghana and in Guimbi Gold SARL in Mali.

    "The first quarter has been very busy preparing and mobilizing additional rigs and equipment, investing significantly in safety and skills training to meet the increased activity. As a result, costs increased in the early part of the quarter, however costs and margins normalized by quarter end. This has been our most promising start to any fiscal year ever."

    Last year was not a good year for drillers overall. According to a report by SNL Metals and Mining, 2016 exploration budgets at the 1,580 companies covered by the study totalled $6.9 billion, the lowest in 11 years.

    http://www.mining.com/driller-says-past-quarter-promising-start-fiscal-year-ever/
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    Base Metals

    Chinalco accident.

    Image title
    First reported as 1.6m mt as a red mud spill.
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    Steel, Iron Ore and Coal

    China suspends new coal-fired power plants in 29 provinces - report


    China will suspend approvals for new coal-fired power plants in 29 provinces to reduce overcapacity in the sector, the official China Securities Journal reported on Friday.

    The National Energy Administration (NEA) has put as many as 25 provinces on "red alert", meaning that new projects would create severe overcapacity or environmental risks, while another four regions were put on "orange alert," the newspaper said citing a NEA statement this week.

    The NEA said that utilisation rates at coal-fired power plants were falling as a result of slowing growth in power consumption, and it established the warning system to identify regions that need to curb overcapacity.

    Overcapacity has eaten into the margins of major coal-fired power producers, especially as regions come under pressure to meet state requirements to raise the share of renewable energy sources.

    China's government said in a work report in March that it would aim to close down, cancel or slow the construction of more than 50 gigawatts (GW) of thermal power capacity this year to tackle the problem.

    According to NEA data, average utilisation rates at China's predominantly coal-fired thermal power plants fell 4.6 percent to 4,165 hours last year. However, total thermal capacity, also including oil and gas-fired plants, still rose 5.3 percent to 1,054 GW over the period.

    The China Electricity Council, an industry lobby group, said last month that utilisation rates had dipped further in some regions in the first quarter of 2017, especially in the northeast and northwest, putting margins at power plants under further pressure.

    The NEA's new warning system also takes into account the resources and pollution levels of each region, with some coal-dependent provinces facing extreme water shortages or pressure to control smog, including the capital Beijing and the surrounding province of Hebei.

    Of China's 32 provinces and regions, only Tibet was not subject to a capacity warning while two were given "green" status.

    The newspaper said China's total coal-fired power generation capacity was likely to reach 1,300 GW by the end of 2020, much higher than the 1,100 GW target in China's 2016-2020 five-year plan. Total coal-fired capacity stood at 940 GW at the end of 2016.

    Environmental group Greenpeace warned last year that China was building another 200 GW of new coal-fired capacity despite the slowdown in demand growth and a pledge to raise the share of non-fossil fuels in the country's total energy mix.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/china-power-capacity-idUSL4N1IE1EH
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    China to curb low-grade coal imports: state radio


    China will curb imports of low-grade coal, state radio reported late on Wednesday citing the government's cabinet, as part of efforts to rebalance supply and demand.

    The report also said China has cut 31.7 million tonnes of steel capacity and 68.97 million tonnes of coal capacity so far this year.

    The cuts to date meet 63 percent of this year's targeted steel reductions and 46 percent of planned coal reductions, the broadcast said.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-coal-idUSKBN1861M5
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    China coal mines forced to plant trees, seal facilities in new green rules


    China will force collieries to plant trees, boost efficiency, cut down noise and seal off facilities from the outside world as part of a new "green mining" plan aimed at curbing pollution, Reuters reported, citing a policy document published on May 10.

    In a comprehensive list of new rules covering coal, metals and chemicals, as well as oil and gas, the Ministry of Land and Resources said all newly built mines would be forced to meet green requirements immediately, while existing mines will also have to "upgrade" facilities.

    The documents, published in conjunction with the environment and finance ministries as well as China's securities and product quality watchdogs, said coal firms would be forced to construct "garden-style" mines with trees planted wherever possible in mining areas.

    "A completely closed management system covering the production, transportation and storage of coal will be implemented so that 'coal is extracted but not seen'," the document added.

    The ambitious plans contrast with past practice in China where high prices and soaring demand encouraged coal miners to build thousands of mines with little heed to safety or the surrounding environment.

    Regulators are now aiming to bring more order to the sector, which accounts for around two thirds of total primary energy use and three quarters of all power generation, curbing overcapacity and illegal production and tackling air and water pollution.

    China's smog-prone capital Beijing has already shut down all its coal-fired power stations, while the surrounding province of Hebei has promised to shut 51 million tonnes of annual coal production over the 2016-2020 period.

    The land ministry said raw coal washing rates would be raised to 100% at new mines, while waste water recovery rates would be brought above 85%.

    Coal mines would be forced to set up dedicated research and development platforms funded with no less than 1% of the mine's income in the previous year, and will have to address training for workers and work-related illnesses.

    The rules will also compel metallurgical miners to set up specialist storage sites for tailings to prevent them from contaminating local land and water supplies.

    http://www.sxcoal.com/news/4555889/info/en
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    Weekly US coal carload volumes dip to year-low mark: AAR


    Total US coal carload volumes have fallen for three straight weeks to a new year-low mark, Association of American Railroads data showed Wednesday.

    For the week ending May 6, the AAR reported 73,386 coal carloads traveled US railways, down from 75,662 carloads the previous week but up 17.7% from the year-ago week. Coal counts were last lower the final week of 2016 at 68,939 carloads.

    Despite recent declines as demand dips during the spring shoulder season, coal volumes year to date are up 17.7%, or about 234,000 carloads, compared to the first 18 weeks of 2016.

    Canadian railroads -- including the US operations of Canadian National, which serves several mines in the Illinois Basin, and Canadian Pacific -- originated 7,720 coal carloads, down 0.2% from the previous week but up 32.9% from the same week last year.

    Canadian coal volumes are up 4.2% year to date.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/houston/weekly-us-coal-carload-volumes-dip-to-year-low-21696010

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    South Korea’s new president likely to curb thermal coal imports


    The election of Moon Jae-In as the new President of South Korea has potentially significant ramifications for the rate of decline in global seaborne thermal coal market volumes.

    South Korea is Asia’s fourth-largest economy and the fourth largest importer of coal globally, accounting for over 10% of world thermal coal import demand.

    “South Korea is the second largest export destination for Australian thermal coal.

    As the only remaining growth market of significant size, it has long been identified by the coal industry as a source of its on-going viability. This election has the potential to snuff out that last beacon of growth,” said Tim Buckley, Director of Energy Finance Studies at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

    Moon Jae-In election pledges

    Idling old coal-fired plants during April and May when fine dust levels tend to peak, and permanently close 10 aged coal-fired plants earlier than scheduled, while reassessing plans to construct nine new plants.
    Elevate the issue of ultra-fine dust with a view to halving dust levels.
    Increase the distribution of environmentally-friendly cars at the expense of old diesel vehicles.
    Scrap plans to build new nuclear plants, including No. 5 and No. 6 Shin-Kori reactors. Close the Wolsong No. 1 nuclear plant with immediate effect.
    Increase the use of renewable energy to 20% by 2030.

    In its March 2017 Resources and Energy Quarterly, the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) stated: ‘by 2022, South Korea’s thermal coal imports are projected to reach 111 million tonnes, an annual average increase of 2.2% from 2016. Much like growth in imports in 2017, this average annual increase is likely to be underpinned by increased installed coal-fired power generation capacity and the South Korean Government’s push for a diversified electricity generation mix, ensuring security of energy supply.’

    China and India collectively purchase over 40% of global seaborne coal and IEEFA contests that permanent shifts in both those markets will see thermal imports reduced towards zero. If carried out, Moon Jae-In’s pledges will further dampen demand, with a negative implication for equilibrium pricing.

    This is particularly the case since they build on the introduction of a national Emissions Trading Scheme in 2015 and an increase in the coal tax by 25% to US$25-30/t, effective April 2017.

    IEEFA forecasts that should President Moon Jae-In follow through with his election promises, this will halve the long-term growth rate for South Korea’s thermal coal imports.

    It would also undermines the viability of NSW greenfield thermal coal developments including Korean-owned mine proposals in Bylong and at Wallarah II, and calls into question the strategic merit of other capacity expansions like Whitehaven’s Vickery and Shenhua’s much delayed Watermark mine developments, as well as the controversial and heavily subsidised Adani Carmichael proposal in Queensland.

    The cumulative effect of a change of energy policy in South Korea and other key coal import markets will be felt in other export markets such as Indonesia.

    “Notwithstanding the recently improved traded price of thermal coal, Indonesia’s major coal miners remain in financial distress and as such are extremely exposed to any sustained decrease in Asian import demand,” said Buckley.

    “Although Indonesia’s primary markets are China and India, any reduction in demand from the key North Asian markets will inevitably have flow-on implications across all markets in terms of pricing.”

    South Korea currently maintains more than 50 coal-fired power plants, producing around 40% of the country’s electricity, while nuclear provides 30%, LNG 25%, oil 3% and renewable sources to-date just 2%. Under the current power supply plan, 11 nuclear reactors were to be developed by 2029 as well as 20 proposed coal-fired power plants by 2022.

    “This policy shift in South Korea is a critical blow for exporters banking on renewed growth in demand for thermal coal,” said Buckley. “But it is entirely consistent with the technology driven energy market transformation taking place across the globe, and in Asia in particular.”

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/south-koreas-new-president-likely-curb-thermal-coal-imports-54886/

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    China says ready to work with EU on steel after latest duty ruling


    China's Commerce Ministry said it was willing to work with the European Union to resolve the problems facing the steel sector after the EU Commission said it would slap anti-dumping duties on Chinese seamless steel pipe.

    The ministry said the EU will impose duties of between 29.2 and 54.9 percent on the product. It was not clear if the EU had officially announced the move.

    "China is willing to strengthen communication with the European Union to appropriately deal with the problems facing the steel sector," it said in a statement.

    It also urged the European Union to treat Chinese firms fairly and abide by the World Trade Organisation's rules.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-steel-europe-idUSKBN1880PT
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    Baosteel shares carbon steel sheet in June 2017 domestic futures sales price adjustment notice


    Google Chrome translation:

    The study decided that in June 2017 Baosteel shares domestic price of the plate in May on the basis of the price adjustment notice is as follows (the following are non-tax):

    First, thick plate ( Baoshan , Dongshan)

    Base price down 200 yuan / ton.

    Second, hot-rolled (Baoshan, Dongshan, Meishan)

    1. Baoshan: base price down 100 yuan /.

    2. Meishan, Dongshan: low carbon steel down 300 yuan / ton, the other down 180 yuan / ton.

    Third, pickling ( Baoshan , Dongshan , Meishan)

     1. Baoshan: base price remains unchanged.

     2. Meishan, Dongshan: base price down 150 yuan / ton, carbon and home appliances steel prices and then down 100 yuan / ton.

    Four, Pu cold ( Baoshan , Dongshan , Meishan)

    CQ grade soft steel and non-automotive varieties of steel base price down 260 yuan / ton, other varieties down 150 yuan / ton.

    Five, hot-dip galvanized ( Baoshan, Dongshan, Meishan)

    1, Baoshan, Dongshan: CQ grade soft steel, S series structural steel, BJD series products down 260 yuan / ton, the other down 150 yuan / ton.

    2, Meishan: base price down 260 yuan / ton.

    Six, electro-galvanized

    CQ grade soft steel down 260 yuan / ton, the other down 150 yuan / ton .

    Seven, galvanized ( Baoshan, Meishan)

    Base price down 160 yuan / ton.

    Eight, non-oriented electrical steel

    Base price fell 260 yuan / ton .

    Nine, orientation to the electrical steel

    Raised 350 yuan / ton .

    10, the above price adjustment notice effective from the date of promulgation.

    11, the interpretation of the price adjustment notice ownership Baoshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. Marketing Center.

    http://www.bsteel.com.cn/exchange/b-0/index.do?method=doQueryBgtjNoticeDetail&ggid=67088
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    Russian steelmaker MMK's earnings more than double on higher steel prices


    MMK, one of Russia's largest steelmakers, said on Thursday its first-quarter core earnings more than doubled compared with a year ago due to higher steel prices.

    MMK, Russia's third-largest steel producer and rivals, including leading Russian steelmaker NLMK, have benefited this year from rising prices after two years in which steel prices hit multi-year lows and a Russian economic crisis hurt domestic demand.

    Its adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to $452 million in the first three months of 2017 from $219 million a year ago, MMK said in a statement.

    MMK's net profit increased by 53.5 percent to $241 million, with revenue up 58.1 percent to $1.7 billion. Its sale prices rose 76.8 percent while shipping volumes for finished products were stable.

    Its shares were up 0.8 percent in Moscow, compared with a 0.2 percent fall in the broader MICEX index.

    Russian businessman Viktor Rashnikov owns 87 percent of MMK and may consider selling 2 percent of the company's shares, investment firm Aton said in a note in December.

    Asked in March if he was considering selling the stake, Rashnikov said that the market was unfavourable for MMK to sell shares from his point of view because "we had a (market) capitalisation of $8 billion, now it's $6.5 billion."

    Since then, MMK's market value has reached $6.7 billion, according to Thomson Reuters data.

    MMK also said in its statement it expected Russia's 2017 steel demand to be 1-2 percent higher than in 2016.

    The company also said it was is experiencing a slowdown in domestic demand due to high reserves accumulated by traders, but it expected these reserves to decline to normal level by June, with domestic demand returning to its usual seasonal levels.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-mmk-results-idUSL8N1ID2WW
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    Global steel industry at 'inflection point': worldsteel head


    The global steel industry has reached "an important inflection point" that requires steelmakers to consider new strategies to survive, World Steel Association Director General Edwin Basson said Thursday.

    Speaking during the Eurometal World Steel Distribution & SSC Summit in Dusseldorf, Basson said current global installed steel capacity -- at some 2.39 billion mt -- is already enough to meet supply requirements through 2035.

    Finished steel demand is likely to be around 1.535 billion mt in 2017, up only 1.3% from the previous year, and nearly 1.549 billion mt in 2018, an increase of 0.9% year on year, according to worldsteel. Strong steel demand growth in developing countries will offset stabilizing demand in developed economies, but it means mostly flat overall global demand for likely the next two decades or more, Basson said.

    Combine those factors with declining trends in steel use -- due in part to increased production of high-strength, lightweight steels and a sharper focus on reuse and recycling -- and the outcome is clear.

    "We believe that steel demand, in terms of volume, has reached an important inflection point," he said. "It will continue to grow, but the growth...is going to be much slower than it has been in the past two decades."

    Basson said a ton of steel remains in use for an average of 47 years in Europe, 44 in the US and less than 40 in China. The global average is around 45 years. With technological improvements resulting in less steel being required in many applications and yielding longer lifespans for the material, those averages are likely to increase, he said.

    "If it's only five years that we're extending the life of steel, it means that we're pushing that demand forward five years," Basson said. "As steelmakers and users of steel, we should begin to plan around this [knock-on effect]."

    In addition, as emerging economies have developed their own domestic steel industries and global overcapacity has pushed tons into the export market, trade case filings in the US and Europe, in particular, have increased in volume in recent years. Basson cautioned that such a strategy is unlikely to be sustainable.

    "Protectionism can help us in the short term... but it cannot in the long term provide stability in an industry that is driven by global forces," he said.

    https://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/dusseldorf/global-steel-industry-at-inflection-point-worldsteel-26733761

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